Qualitative Characteristics of Financial Reporting Errors Deemed Immaterial by Managers Preeti Choudhary* Georgetown University [email protected] Kenneth Merkley Cornell University [email protected] Katherine Schipper Duke University [email protected] First draft: January 2016 This version: March 2016 * Corresponding Author. Professor Choudhary acknowledges the financial support of the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University, and wrote this paper prior to joining the PCAOB. The views expressed in this paper are her personal views and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board as a whole or members of its staff or Board. The PCAOB as a matter of policy disclaims responsibility for any private publication or statement by any of its Economic Research Fellows and employees. We appreciate helpful comments from workshop participants at the PCAOB, the University of Arizona, the University of Connecticut, and the London Business School. Qualitative Characteristics of Financial Reporting Errors Deemed Immaterial by Managers Abstract: We provide evidence on two qualitative characteristics of financial reporting errors deemed immaterial by management (immaterial errors) and benchmark these characteristics against those of material errors corrected by restatements. With regard to relevance for equity valuation, our results suggest that investors find immaterial errors relevant, in particular those that are more severe, with valuation effects smaller than those associated with restatements disclosed in form 8-K. With regard to predictive ability for reporting quality, we find immaterial errors are informative about financial reporting reliability because they indicate increased propensities for future material errors, immaterial errors, and material weakness assessments. The predictive ability of immaterial errors for reporting quality is not qualitatively different from that of material errors. Viewed in the context of previous research on material errors, our results support the notion that immaterial errors are informative about reporting quality. Our analysis informs recent debates about materiality assessments from an investor perspective. 1. Introduction We investigate the outcome of the required application of the concept of materiality in financial reporting by analyzing accounting errors, including those deemed material and those deemed immaterial by management. We distinguish the two types of errors based on differences in the ways material vs immaterial errors are described and corrected. We assess the outcome of these management judgments by providing evidence on two qualitative characteristics of financial reporting errors judged by management to be immaterial.1 First, taking as our benchmark investor responses to material error corrections, we assess relevance for equity valuation by measuring whether equity investors respond to immaterial error corrections despite their designation. This evidence is intended to shed light on whether preparer materiality assessments align with those of investors. Second, we investigate whether immaterial errors have predictive ability, a component of relevance in the conceptual framework of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).2 Specifically, we test whether immaterial error corrections provide forward-looking information about the reliability of the firm’s financial reporting system, as captured by predictive ability of current period error corrections for future errors and material weaknesses in internal controls. In the U.S. the legal definition of materiality is qualitative, in that information is material if “there is a substantial likelihood that the omitted or misstated item would have been viewed by a reasonable resource provider as having significantly altered the total mix of information.” 3 The application of this qualitative definition in a financial reporting context typically begins with a quantitative threshold, in the sense that reporting errors whose magnitude exceeds a specified amount are deemed material; otherwise, the error is deemed immaterial unless a qualitative analysis determines otherwise. That is, in evaluating an error’s materiality, preparers are required to evaluate the nature of the error and its surrounding circumstances to determine 1 Following authoritative guidance (ASC-250), errors are defined as misapplications of GAAP including misuse of facts at the time financial information is prepared. Errors can be intentional or unintentional; in general it is not possible to distinguish these two types of errors by examining the nature (for example, the effect on income) of the errors themselves. We focus on management’s determination as to error materiality, not the related but distinct determination required of the external auditor. We use the term “material error” to describe a financial reporting error deemed material by management and corrected by restatement and “immaterial error” to describe an error deemed immaterial by management. 2 Para. QC6-QC11 of Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 8. 3 Para. QC11 of the FASB’s September 2015 Exposure Draft to amend Concepts Statement No. 8; refer also to footnote 4. 1 whether a reasonable investor would find the information important, in the sense of significantly altering the mix of available information. Authoritative guidance identifies factors that preparers should consider because those factors may influence investor assessments about whether a given information item, including an error correction, would alter the mix of information (e.g. SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 99, Materiality, issued in 1999). That said, professional judgment is required to designate errors as material versus immaterial. We investigate the outcome of these judgments, by analyzing two qualitative characteristics of errors determined by management to be immaterial: relevance for equity values and predictive ability. We measure equity value relevance by reference to investor perceptions, as captured by market reactions to disclosure of immaterial error corrections, and we measure predictive ability by reference to the ability of immaterial errors to forecast indicators of poor future reporting quality. In assessing the properties of immaterial financial reporting errors, we aim to provide evidence on the concept of materiality as an underpinning of financial reporting and auditing. The application of this concept is pervasive; for example, the FASB states in ASC Topic 105, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, that the provisions of its standards need not be applied (by preparers) to immaterial items. To clarify the concept of materiality for preparers and users of financial statements, in September 2015 the FASB proposed both amending the discussion of materiality in the Conceptual Framework and providing standards-level guidance to financial statement preparers in assessing materiality in the notes to financial statements. 4 Outside the U.S. reporting environment, revised U.K. and Ireland audit reports beginning in 2013 provide specific information about how auditors assess quantitative materiality thresholds. This newly provided information has generated interest among market participants who have diverse views on materiality and also among academic researchers.5 4 A proposed ASU to Topic 235, Notes to Financial Statements: Assessing Whether Disclosures are Material, would specify, among other things, that materiality is a legal concept and the omission of immaterial disclosures is not an accounting error. A proposed amendment to Chapter 3 of Concepts Statement No. 8, Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting, would state specifically that materiality is a legal concept, and cite to the Supreme Court decisions TSC Industries, Inc. v. Northway Inc., 426 U.S. 438 (1976) and Basic Inc. v. Levinson, 485 U. S. 224 (1988). The proposed amendment states specifically that the FASB does not define materiality (para. BC18B), meaning that the FASB would also not define the terms in the legal definition such as “reasonable resource provider” or “significantly altered the mix of information.” 5 The UK/Ireland guidance for auditors is International Standard on Auditing (UK and Ireland) 700, The Independent Auditor’s Report on Financial Statements, (ISA 700) Financial Reporting Council, 2013. Investor interest in these reports is illustrated in a Citi Research Report, UK Auditor’s Reports, September 24, 2015, which analyzes 97 of the FTSE 100 auditor reports, including a detailed discussion of differences in quantitative 2 Our analyses of immaterial errors are based on a broad sample of 2,385 reporting errors that are deemed immaterial by management of firms applying U.S. GAAP between October 2008 and December 2014 and that are included in the Audit Analytics database. During this period, there is an increasing propensity to disclose immaterial errors and a decreasing propensity to disclose material errors (restatements). For example, during this sample period, the frequency of immaterial errors doubles from 4% to 9%, while the corresponding frequency for material errors declines by 50% from 3.2% to 1.5%. Our analysis aims to shed light on the properties of immaterial financial reporting errors and their implications for reporting quality. We find that, compared to material errors, immaterial errors tend to be disclosed through less salient channels (periodic filings such as form 10-Q or form 10-K as opposed to press releases or Form 8-K filings) and gain less attention from the SEC, the firm’s board of directors, and auditors. Immaterial errors are, not surprisingly, smaller on average than material errors; the mean immaterial error is approximately 20% the size of a material error, computed as the ratio of the income effect of the error scaled by absolute pretax income. Despite this difference in mean magnitudes, there is overlap in the distributions of errors deemed material versus immaterial, as depicted in Figure 3, suggesting that managers’ consideration of qualitative factors leads to variation in materiality designations. Further, despite their smaller average magnitudes and lessprominent disclosures, immaterial error corrections are often associated with negative price responses. While the price reactions to immaterial errors are on average much smaller in magnitude than the reactions to material errors (documented in our results as well as in previous research), they are reliably non-zero. Additional analyses show the price reactions for immaterial errors are stronger when those errors are more severe and when the corrections are disclosed in non-routine filings as opposed to periodic filings (e.g. 10-K, 10-Q). We interpret the weight of the evidence as supporting the view that investors do not disregard error corrections designated by management as immaterial. This inference suggests a possible misalignment between preparer and auditor assessments of what alters the mix of information and investor assessments. We explore a plausible potential source of this possible misalignment, specifically, whether immaterial errors alter the mix of information by providing a forward-looking signal of materiality thresholds and their application. Academic research on the capital market and financial reporting consequences of the new auditor reports includes, for example, Gutierrez, Minutta-Meza, Tatum and Vulcheve (2016), Lennox, Schmidt and Thompson (2015), and Reid, Carcello, Li and Neil (2015a, 2015b). 3 the (un)reliability of financial reporting systems. Neither quantitative materiality thresholds, such as 5% of assets or income, nor the qualitative materiality factors in authoritative guidance specify informativeness about reporting reliability (or likelihood of error recurrence) as a consideration in reaching materiality determinations. We conjecture that equity investors might view immaterial errors as indications of weak internal controls or poor reporting quality generally, while preparers do not consider this factor in their materiality assessments because it is not part of the guidance they are required to follow. In evaluating this possibility, we find that, after controlling for material errors, immaterial errors are associated with poor future financial reporting quality as captured by higher propensities of future material errors, immaterial errors, and material weaknesses. We interpret this finding as pointing to a possible reason for misalignment between investors in interpreting immaterial errors and preparers in determining that errors are immaterial: investors are considering a factor that does not enter the preparers’ determination. The finding is inconsistent with the view that immaterial errors are promptly corrected, and their underlying causes are promptly addressed, in a manner that increases reporting quality in the sense of reducing the likelihood of future financial reporting problems. We contribute to research on reporting quality, specifically, research on financial reporting errors. Taking the perspective that financial reporting errors, whether material or immaterial, have the potential to convey decision-useful information to equity investors, we study immaterial errors that firms disclose pursuant to ASC 250-10 to provide evidence on whether these errors are meaningful or informative. Our focus on immaterial errors contrasts with and complements previous analyses of material errors, including classifications intended to capture the prominence or salience of information presented about the material error correction (e.g. Hribar and Jenkins 2004; Palmrose and Scholz 2004; Palmrose, Richardson, Scholz 2004; Efendi et al 2007; Hennes, Leone, and Miller 2008; Plumlee and Yohn 2010; Kravet and Shevlin 2010; Ettredge et al. 2011; Badertscher and Burks 2011; Myers, Scholz and Sharp 2013). Prior research that studies immaterial errors focuses on firm characteristics that determine such errors in the form of revisions (e.g., DeFond and Jiambalvo 1991; Tan and Young 2014), or uses them to evaluate the determinants of materiality judgments including auditor/preparer incentives, qualitative and quantitative factors (e.g., Acito, Burks, Johnson 2009; Keune and Johnston 2012). That is, previous research on immaterial errors tends to focus on determinants, not outcomes, taking the qualitative characteristics of errors as given. Our 4 analyses contribute beyond these prior investigations of immaterial errors in three ways. First, we provide evidence on two qualitative characteristics that capture outcomes of immaterial errors, relevance for equity valuation and predictive ability. Second, we separately consider two types of immaterial errors, those corrected as revisions and those corrected as out-of-period adjustments; our results suggest qualitative differences in between these two types of errors. Third, we provide explicit comparisons using material errors to benchmark our results. The rest of this paper proceeds as follows. Sections 2 provides background information on materiality and immaterial versus material errors in financial reporting. Sections 3, 4 and 5 review the relevant literature, develop our hypotheses and report empirical results, respectively. Section 6 concludes. 2. Background information 2.1 Immaterial errors versus material errors and their correction Figure 1 shows schematically the determination of whether a financial reporting error is immaterial, the way the error and its correction are disclosed, and the distinction between two types of immaterial errors. The starting point is the identification of a financial reporting error, defined as inaccuracies in recognition, measurement, presentation, or disclosure in financial statements resulting from mathematical mistakes, mistakes in the application of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), or oversight or misuse of facts that existed at the time the financial statements were prepared (ASC 250-10).6 For our purposes, it is important to distinguish a reporting error from an after-the-fact inaccuracy due to the difference between an ex ante estimate and an ex post outcome. The distinction matters because a difference between an estimate and an outcome does not arise from a mistake or a misuse of facts; rather, it arises from the uncertainty inherent in financial reporting. Management would be expected to respond to a difference between an estimate and an outcome by changing the estimate prospectively. Once an item is determined to be an error as opposed to a circumstance that might require a prospective change in estimate or judgment, management must determine if the error is material or immaterial. If the error is deemed material, the preparer follows the guidance for recording and disclosing restatements. If the error is deemed immaterial to the financial 6 For example, a change from an accounting principle that is not generally accepted to one that is generally accepted is a correction of an error. 5 statement period in which it occurred, the preparer follows the guidance for recording and disclosing immaterial errors. This determination requires professional judgment on the part of the preparer, to make the initial decision, and then by the auditor as part of the assurance process. We focus on management’s determination of materiality, and consider three types of errors: material errors corrected by restatement, immaterial errors corrected by revision, and immaterial errors corrected by an out-of-period adjustment. An error that is judged to be material to the financial reports for the period(s) in which it occurred requires a statement of non-reliance (i.e., Item 4.02 in 8-K filing) for the prior periodic report(s) containing the material error and a restatement (i.e., revised financial statements) disclosed either in an amended filing or a future filling.7 Both a statement of non-reliance and revised financial statements are required even if the errors are deemed immaterial to the period in which they are identified. In addition, a revised audit opinion is required with discussion in the auditor’s report of the error. We refer to these as material errors or restatements; in practice they are commonly referred to as “Big R” restatements. Appendix A, Section 1 provides examples. These examples illustrate that material error corrections (restatements) are accompanied by detailed disclosures, revised financial statements, and explanations. We classify errors that do not meet the combined quantitative and qualitative threshold to be deemed material errors as immaterial errors, judged by management to be not-material in accordance with authoritative guidance. That is, we assume preparers and auditors have faithfully and objectively applied the requirements of authoritative guidance to assess the materiality of errors, and the method of disclosing/correcting the error faithfully represents the outcome of that assessment. Per SAB 108, issued September 13, 2006, management is expected to correct immaterial errors and not allow them to remain on the balance sheet indefinitely.8 In a December 2008 speech, the associate Chief Accountant of the SEC indicated that if the effect of a correction would not materially affect the previously-issued financial statements, those Form 8-K current report General Instructions, Item 4.02 must be filed if (a) the registrant’s board of directors…. concludes that any previously issues financial statements, covering one or more years or interim periods for which the registrant is required to provide financial statements… should no longer be relied upon because of an error in such financial statements (Rule 33-8400). 8 We note that the disclosure of accounting errors differs from the disclosure of some other forms of financial reporting information in that it is mandatory that immaterial errors be corrected and disclosed following SAB 108. In other cases, managers must disclose information deemed material, but the disclosure of immaterial information can be voluntary (Heitzman, Wasley, and Zimmerman 2010). 7 6 financial statements may be relied upon, and the corrections may be made in future filings (i.e., without amending prior filings or issuing an Item 4.02 8-K disclosure).9 The correction of an immaterial error depends on the nature of the error. First, a revision (sometimes called a prior period adjustment or “little r” restatement) is a correction of an error or a series of errors whose nature is such that (1) the error is immaterial to each individual financial reporting period in which the error occurred using both a period-by-period and cumulative analysis of the financial statement effects of the error, but (2) collectively the error(s) may be sufficient to distort current period income if all the errors are corrected in the period discovered.10 For example, errors can occur in multiple periodic filings and accumulate such that a current-period correction would distort current-period income (ASC 250-10-45-24; PWC Interpretive Guidance 2013; SEC speech by Mark Maher 12/8/2008). These immaterial errors are recorded as revisions, specifically, by revising comparative financial statements included in the current period financial report. The adjustment to correct the past-period(s) error is made to opening balances of retained earnings; an error that would affect current period income would flow through the income statement. These errors do not require Item 4.02 statement of nonreliance disclosures because the financial statements containing the errors are not materially misstated, and thus, can be relied upon. Appendix A, Section 2 provides some examples of revision disclosures. Qualitatively, revision disclosures tend to be less detailed and shorter relative to material error disclosures. Second, an out-of-period adjustment refers to an immaterial error that is corrected by adjusting the current period financial statements for the prior period error.11 That is, the error(s) occurred in some prior period(s) and the entire correction is recognized in financial statement amounts in the current period, meaning the current period income statement contains the entire correction of a previous-period error. As result, at least two accounting periods contain 9 http://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2008/spch120808mm.htm The term revisions does not appear specifically in authoritative guidance but is commonly used in practice as evidenced by interpretive guidance from large audit firms. This interpretive guidance cites the SEC speech made by Associate Chief Accountant Mark Maher in December 2008, sometimes referred to as “standard setting by speech.” Practitioners also sometimes refer to these immaterial error corrections (pejoratively) as stealth restatements. The use of the term stealth restatements in the academic literature does not refer to revisions as we use that term. We describe the uses of the term stealth restatements in Section 3.0. 11 While the term “out-of-period adjustment” is not used in authoritative guidance it is commonly used in practice as evidenced by interpretive guidance from large audit firms (May et al. 2013; Ernst and Young 2014). As illustrated in Appendix A, Section 3, firms often use this term in their disclosures. 10 7 distortions from true periodic performance, the current period to which the correction is applied and the prior period(s) where the error occurred. Examples of out-of-period adjustment disclosures appear in Appendix A, Section 3. Based on this discussion of the nature of material and immaterial errors and following prior research, we infer that a financial reporting error corrected by restatement would be material to financial statement users; we discuss related research in Section 3. Among errors deemed immaterial by management, and focusing only on magnitudes of errors with no consideration of qualitative factors, we infer that revisions would be smaller than material errors but larger than out-of-period adjustments (alternatively, closer to the materiality threshold), because correcting revisions entirely in the current period financial reports would distort the ability of current period reporting to represent current period profits. Consequently, when we focus on magnitudes only, we infer that out-of-period adjustments would be the smallest, or, alternatively, farther from the materiality threshold than revisions. However, a focus on magnitudes is incomplete, because authoritative guidance for materiality judgments contains qualitative factors, meaning that error magnitude is not determinative of materiality. Taking the perspective that materiality determinations are based on combined quantitative and qualitative factors, we investigate how financial statement users process corrections of errors that management deems immaterial, whether this processing varies between revisions and out-ofperiod adjustments, and whether either type or both types of immaterial errors have predictive ability for future reporting quality. 2.2 Materiality in financial reporting Applying the notion of materiality in a financial reporting setting requires professional judgment. In practice, it is common to begin materiality assessments by applying quantitative thresholds such as 5% of pre-tax income (e.g., Messier, Mortinov-Bennie and Eilifsen 2005). SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 108 provides additional guidance that both the iron curtain (income statement) and the rollover (balance sheet) approaches should be used to assess the materiality of an error. Prior to SAB 108, preparers and auditors could choose between the two methods (e.g., Nelson et al. 2005; Keune and Johnstone 2009). The rollover method focuses on the materiality of current-year errors and the effect of correcting prior-year errors on current period income (Keune and Johnstone 2012). The iron curtain method evaluates the materiality of 8 the error by recording income statement errors from prior periods as an adjustment to retained earnings; in other words it requires a quantitative evaluation of the cumulative effect of the error (i.e. year-to-date) on current period financial statements. For example, if an error of $30 affects reported income of $1,000 in each of two periods, the rollover approach quantifies the error as 3% of income in each period and the iron curtain approach quantifies the error as 3% in period 1 and 6% in period 2 (PWC Interpretive Guidance 2013). As a matter of principle or practice, materiality can be specified, at least as a starting point, as a quantitative threshold, for example, an error expressed as a percentage of income or assets would exceed (material) or not exceed (immaterial) a specified numerical threshold. The use of a numerical threshold “as an initial step in assessing materiality” is described as appropriate in SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 99. However, SAB 99 also clarifies that the legal notion of materiality for financial reporting extends beyond quantitative thresholds, requiring an assessment of relevant circumstances or qualitative factors. Qualitative factors to be considered per SAB 99 include but are not limited to: whether the item being measured is capable of precise measurement; how an item being evaluated for materiality affects earnings trends, or meeting analyst expectations, or a change from reporting a loss to reporting income (or vice versa); whether the item affects compliance with regulatory requirements or loan covenants; whether the item would increase management compensation by, for example, meeting a bonus requirement; whether the item conceals an unlawful transaction; whether the item is a result of intentional earnings manipulation. Based on these qualitative factors, an error that is small as a percentage of income or assets could be material. 3.0 Previous research on materiality in financial reporting A substantial body of accounting research analyzes material errors, meaning those that are disclosed in form 8-K and corrected in a restatement. Some of the first work in this area studied determinants and consequences of material errors identified in interim reports (Kinney and McDaniel 1989). Subsequent studies examine additional determinants and consequences of material errors and how the consequences differ based on various firm and error characteristics (e.g., Hribar and Jenkins 2004; Palmrose and Scholz 2004; Palmrose, Richardson, Scholz 2004; Efendi et al 2007; Hennes, Leone, and Miller 2008; Plumlee and Yohn 2010; Kravet and Shevlin 2010; Ettredge et al. 2011; Badertscher and Burks 2011; Myers, Scholz and Sharp 2013). 9 Previous analyses of error corrections and particularly restatements sometimes use the term “stealth restatements.” We do not use this term, because we believe it has a number of possible meanings depending on the context. First, as indicated in note 9, practitioners sometimes refer to immaterial errors corrected by revisions as “stealth restatements” suggesting that because those errors are not disclosed in the same way as material errors investors could overlook them. Second, we find the term “stealth restatements” in a 2006 report by Glass Lewis & Co., LLP that identified certain firms that disclosed material errors only in regular filings (i.e., 10-K, 10-Q) or not at all.12 We interpret the term “stealth restatement” as used by Glass Lewis as referring to errors where their judgment of materiality differs from the judgment reached by management and/or material errors that are disclosed inappropriately (possibly intentionally). Based on our interpretation, this usage of the term stealth restatement appears to comingle the way the error is disclosed, that is, whether the information presented is or is not viewed as salient or prominent, with the determination as to whether an error is material, that is, a misapplication of the materiality concept. Finally, some researchers use the term “stealth restatements” to refer to material error corrections (restatements) that are disclosed with varying degrees of prominence that might affect the attention investors pay to the error. This use of the term focuses on the salience of how a restatement is presented, not the judgment that led to the error being deemed material. For example, Files, Swanson and Tse (2009) label “stealth restatements” as Big R restatements (material error corrections) with less prominent disclosures (across headline, body of press release, and footnote reference in press release) and find evidence of larger market reactions to more prominent restatement disclosures. Myers et al. (2013) define and study stealth restatements as Big R restatements that do not have a corresponding 8-K disclosure.13 They document less negative market reactions to Big R restatements absent 8-K disclosures. These academic studies using the term stealth restatement, which analyze how information about material error corrections is presented, do not overlap with our analysis. 12 In other words, Glass Lewis identified companies as not complying with requirement to issue 8-K/press release announcements as clarified by the SEC in August 2004 for all material error corrections (Rule 33-8400). 13 Some of their sample pre-dates the Item 4.02 disclosure (effective in 2004) such that their sample comingles both Big “R” restatements without voluntary 8-K/press release disclosures and little r restatements (revisions) that are not material errors. Their definition of “stealth restatements” is restatements with low transparency. 10 To summarize, previous analyses by accounting researchers and others have focused on material errors of varying types, including classifications intended to capture the prominence or salience of information presented about the material error correction. In contrast, we study immaterial errors that firms disclose pursuant to ASC 250-10 to provide evidence on whether these errors are also meaningful or informative, despite their assessment as immaterial. Specifically, we investigate whether investors respond to immaterial errors, and whether immaterial errors have predictive ability for future reporting quality; in these analyses we consider the properties of material errors only as a benchmark for comparison. Based on previous research, we also distinguish in some analyses between immaterial errors disclosed in a routine periodic filing (form 10-Q or 10-K) and immaterial errors disclosed in a non-routine filing, for example, in a form 8-K.14 In contrast to the broad literature on material errors corrected by restatements, there are few studies of immaterial errors. The existing research has considered one type of immaterial error, a revision or little r restatement, and has provided evidence on determinants (e.g., DeFond and Jiambalvo 1991). Tan and Young (2014) extend this determinants analysis to a more recent time period characterized by a greater frequency of these types of errors. Related work by Keune and Johnston (2009) provides descriptive evidence of revisions following SAB 108 which changed materiality guidance.15 Finally, some recent studies compare restatements and revisions to shed light on materiality judgments and factors that influence those judgments (e.g., Acito, Burks, Johnson 2009; Keune and Johnston 2012). Previous research on immaterial errors has thus analyzed one type of immaterial error (revisions), primarily from the perspective of providing evidence on the determinants of this outcome of management judgment. Our research differs in three ways. First, we are primarily concerned with qualitative characteristics of immaterial errors, including relevance as measured by equity market responses to disclosures of immaterial error corrections and predictive ability of immaterial errors. Second, we separately analyze two types of immaterial errors: revisions (error corrections recorded as an adjustment to retained earnings) and out-of-period adjustments 14 As illustrated in Figure 1, immaterial errors are not required to be disclosed using form 8-K, meaning that a decision to do so would reflect a disclosure choice by management. 15 SAB 108 adjustments would be reported similar to “little r” restatements, except they do not require revised prior period comparative financials because the triggering event for the correction is a change in guidance for applying quantitative materiality thresholds. 11 (error corrections recorded in current period income and therefore expected to be the least material). Analyzing both revisions and out-of-period adjustments allows us to provide a more complete understanding of the characteristics of immaterial errors, including whether the distinction between them is meaningful. Third, we provide explicit comparisons using material error corrections as a benchmark, allowing us to calibrate the magnitude of our results. That is, we compare the equity value relevance and predictive ability of immaterial errors to the relevance and predictive ability of material errors as a benchmark. 4.0 Empirical predictions and tests While management is responsible for preparing the financial statements and making all necessary materiality determinations, ultimately the designation of an error as material or immaterial is determined jointly by management and the auditor. The outcome of this determination—whether an error is or is not material—in turn determines how the error is corrected and how the correction is disclosed. In reaching their materiality conclusions, both preparers and auditors apply authoritative guidance that requires interpretations and judgment. That is, the guidance does not provide bright lines to assess materiality, nor does it permit materiality assessments based only on calibrations against quantitative thresholds such as 5% of pre-tax income. The legal definition of materiality is entirely qualitative: “whether there is a substantial likelihood that a reasonable investor would consider this information important (SAB 99).” In other words, “the misstatement is material if it …. is probable that the judgment of a reasonable person relying upon the report would have been changed or influenced by the inclusion or correction of the item” (FASB Concept Statement 2, glossary). Based on this reasoning, equity investors would be expected to ignore immaterial errors and respond to material errors. Alternatively, investors may view financial reporting errors of any magnitude as indicative of inherent financial reporting or internal control problems. In this case, investors would be expected to respond to news of immaterial reporting errors less because of the errors themselves and more because of what the errors suggest about financial reporting reliability and therefore the quality of reported information. This reasoning stems from the nature of errors. They are inaccuracies in financial reporting that result from the misapplication of GAAP or the misuse of facts; they do not arise because actual outcomes differ from expectations based on 12 management’s judgements and estimates. Ex post inaccurate judgments, estimates and assumptions would lead to changes in prospective accrual estimations and are not financial reporting errors. An example of such a change in estimate would be the prospective accounting for a change in estimated asset service lives or salvage values. We use market reactions to error announcements to assess whether investors appear to believe there is information in an immaterial error announcements that is relevant to pricing securities. Our use of stock price returns to capture investor revisions of firm valuations is consistent with the use of stock returns in class action lawsuits (e.g., Kellogg 1984). If investors agree with the designation of the error as immaterial, then on average, we will not observe any market reaction to immaterial error disclosures. On the other hand, a discernible market reaction to errors that are deemed immaterial suggests that investors view the error corrections as pertinent to their valuation assessments. This alternative suggests that error corrections, even corrections of errors deemed immaterial by preparers, provide adverse information, possibly about the reliability of the financial reporting system and, therefore, the quality of reported information. Our first set of empirical tests focuses on these alternatives by analyzing the share price response to corrections of immaterial error announcements and comparing that response to the price response to restatements. We present results on size-adjusted returns associated with the disclosure of errors and also examine how variation in the severity of the errors relates to the price responses. If all immaterial errors are viewed as uninformative by investors, we would expect variation of the severity of the error within the immaterial error category to be unrelated to price responses. However, if investors view the severity of immaterial errors as providing decision-useful information we would expect more severe errors to be associated with more significant price responses. Our second set of empirical tests takes the perspective that immaterial errors may be viewed as indicators of poor reporting quality, specifically, that immaterial errors predict a lack of reliability of the financial reporting system. We believe there are at least three possible scenarios. 16 First, if immaterial reporting errors are isolated occurrences, idiosyncratic to specific and nonrecurring facts and circumstances, the errors would occur randomly and would not 16 We recognize that immaterial errors could result from intentional misapplications of the materiality guidance in which managers willfully classify material errors as immaterial errors. We do not consider this scenario in our analyses. 13 provide any indication of the quality of the financial reporting system. This reasoning implies there would be no relation between immaterial errors and (future) poor financial reporting quality. Second, immaterial errors might indicate improved future financial reporting quality if managers use immaterial errors as a warning signal of systematic problems which they promptly correct by personnel changes and system improvements. Given the negative consequences of material errors documented by prior research, managers might find it beneficial to exert effort to detect errors sooner, correct them, and take steps to improve the reporting system. This reasoning would imply a negative relation between immaterial errors and (future) poor financial reporting quality. Finally, if immaterial errors indicate the (poor) quality of the underlying financial reporting system either because their causes remain unaddressed or because these errors represent pervasive financial reporting problems, then we may observe that immaterial errors have predictive ability for the reliability of the financial reporting system or a positive relation between immaterial errors and (future) poor financial reporting quality. We measure reliability as the incidence of future reporting errors, and our second set of tests provides evidence on the predictive ability of immaterial errors for future material and immaterial errors and for future internal control weaknesses. 5.0 Data and Analysis 5.1 Descriptive statistics We begin our analysis with the Audit Analytics databases on restatements and immaterial error corrections including (when available) both revisions and out-of-period adjustments. Figure 2 depicts the frequency of these types of errors between 2004 (when 8-K Item 4.02 disclosures became effective) and 2014 as a percentage of all firm observations in each year. The top graph depicts restatements and immaterial error corrections between 2004 and 2014. The bottom graph depicts restatements, revisions and out-of-period adjustments separately. Both graphs include out-of-period adjustments when these data are available in Audit Analytics (fiscal years ending on or after October 2008). Both graphs display a visually striking pattern of declining frequencies in material errors over the sample period and increasing frequencies in immaterial errors, in particular revisions, since 2008. Although the trend is less dramatic relative to the trend for revisions, out-of-period adjustments also appear (visually) to increase over the period October 2008-December 2014. We 14 believe there are at least three non-mutually-exclusive explanations for this pattern. First, greater diligence in internal control assessments mandated by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, combined with Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) enforcement activities could have increased the likelihood that immaterial errors are detected during the latter portion of the sample period (e.g., DeFond and Lennox 2015). Second, awareness of the negative consequences of restatements could induce managers to exert greater effort to detect and correct errors sooner, when they are presumably smaller and therefore correctable by a revision or outof-period adjustment as opposed to restatement. Third, preparers and auditors may be responding to SAB 108, issued in 2006, that clarifies immaterial errors must be corrected, and to the December 2008 speech described in Section 2 and referenced in footnotes 8 and 9 suggesting that an immaterial error should be corrected by revision if the error correction materially affects current period net income.17 Regardless of the cause, or combination of causes, the over-time pattern is an increase in immaterial errors, particularly revisions, and a decrease in material errors in the Audit Analytics database since approximately 2008. As described in Table 1, our initial sample of error events includes 6,103 financial reporting errors from the Audit Analytics database during October 15, 2008 to December 31, 2014.18 We eliminate 1,653 observations without Compustat links and 1,470 observations without CRSP links, event period returns, and related price information. The resulting sample of 2,980 error events (2,837 distinct firm year observations) includes 622 “Big R” errors (material errors corrected by restatements), 1,324 “little r” errors (immaterial errors corrected by revisions) and 1,034 out-of-period adjustment occurrences. Table 2, Panels A and B provide descriptive statistics of immaterial errors corrected by revisions, immaterial errors corrected by out-of-period adjustments, and for comparison purposes, material errors corrected by restatements. With regard to how the corrections are disclosed, the first announcement of an immaterial error is about 75% more likely to occur in in a periodic filing (Form 10-K or Form 10-Q) than a non-routine disclosure such as an 8-K or press 17 For example, guidance to its audit professionals provided by PricewaterhouseCoopers, Dataline, A Look at Current Financial Reporting Issues, 2013 revision, refers explicitly to the December 2008 SEC speech. 18 We select this time period because out-of-period adjustments data from Audit Analytics are complete over this time period. 15 release.19 Specifically, 29.7% (54.5%) of material errors, but less than 5% of immaterial errors, are disclosed for the first time in a press release (8-K filing). Conversely, 34.2% (32.0%) of revisions (out-of-period adjustments) are disclosed for the first time in Form 10-K and 44.0% (66.4%) of revisions (out-of-period adjustments) are disclosed for the first time in Form 10-Q, as compared with 5.3% of restatements disclosed in these routine periodic filings. With regard to consequences, SEC investigations, board involvement, and auditor letters with language about the error are far less likely to be associated with immaterial errors than material errors; one or more of these events is associated with the vast majority of restatements, while auditor letters contain language about the error for 36% of immaterial errors, there is SEC/board involvement in less than 1% of immaterial error corrections. Both the way errors are reported and the governance and regulatory consequences of errors are consistent with the view that managers and those who monitor them pay less attention to immaterial errors. With regard to financial statement impacts, immaterial errors are more than twice as likely as material errors to have no income impact (43.8% of immaterial errors and 19.1% of material errors have zero net income effect), consistent with the idea that financial reporting materiality is associated with, if not determined by, income effects. The difference is largely driven by immaterial errors that are corrected by revisions (61.4%) as opposed to out-of-period adjustments (12.3%). Immaterial errors relate only to classification issues for 10.8% of immaterial errors, as compared with 7.1% for material errors; reclassification-only issues are more likely to relate to revisions (20.9%) than to adjustments (0.4%). In terms of directional effects on income, 27.4% of revisions decrease income as compared to 59.8% of material error restatements and 51.5% of out-of-period adjustments. Error corrections with positive income effects are more frequent among out-of-period adjustments (36.2%) which flow through current period net income, relative to immaterial errors (11.3%) recorded as revisions and to material error corrections (21.1%). Both material and immaterial errors involve on average between one and two accounting issues. Both material and immaterial error corrections tend to affect between one and two fiscal years (1.75 and 1.69 years, respectively).20 19 For our purposes, it is not important to distinguish between Form 10-Q which is reviewed but not audited and Form 10-K which is audited, because both filings are subject to the same materiality guidance and the same securities laws. 20 Data on the number of fiscal periods covered is available only for restatements and revisions and is not generally reported for out-of-period adjustments. 16 Immaterial errors are on average much smaller in magnitude than material errors when measured by the absolute value of the EPS effect/ price, by the absolute value of the income effect/price and the absolute value of the income effect/assets, before and after excluding errors with no income effect, supporting the notion of quantitative assessments of materiality. That said, the means of the scaled income effects, particularly the effects of revisions, approach or even exceed the standard quantitative materiality thresholds of 5% of pretax income and 0.5% of assets. For example, the average absolute income effect/pretax income is 10.5% for revisions and 6.8% for out-of-period adjustments, including errors with zero income effects; analogous amounts when the scalar is total assets are 0.4% and 0.2%. These amounts suggest that materiality judgments are not the result of simply comparing the error magnitude to quantitative thresholds but rather reflect other qualitative considerations as required by SAB 99. One implication of the use of qualitative factors in reaching materiality judgments is that the empirical distributions of material errors and immaterial errors will overlap—some smallermagnitude errors will be deemed material and some larger-magnitude errors will be deemed immaterial. We illustrate the overlap in Figure 3, which shows the signed income effects of correcting the errors, divided by assets, for restatements, revisions and out-of-period adjustments. While the distribution of restatement effects is more extreme than the distribution of immaterial error effects, there is also visual evidence of overlap. We conclude that while larger magnitudes of error effects are clearly a distinguishing feature of restatements, the application of qualitative factors results in less-than-complete separation of the empirical distributions of the magnitudes of effects of correcting three types of reporting errors. Table 2, Panel B displays the frequencies of material versus immaterial errors by broad categories of financial statement line items. Visual inspection suggests that the nature of the accounting item where an error occurs varies with the type of error. For example, the most common error corrected by revision (25.8%) is a classification error on the statement of cash flows. The most common out-of-period adjustment is related to the accounting for income taxes (31.8%), followed by revenue recognition issues (11.5% frequency). In contrast, the most frequent restatement error (17.7%) pertains to revenue recognition, followed by tax reporting issues, debt/equity securities issues and issues related to receivables/investments/cash with frequencies of 15.6%, 14.3%, and 12.9% respectively. Because our focus is on immaterial errors as a class of financial reporting error, that is, our focus is on errors deemed immaterial regardless 17 of the issue(s) involved, our analysis does not consider the error type (e.g., tax reporting versus revenue reporting) beyond including in some specifications an indicator for errors that affect classification only. 5.2 Market responses to disclosures of immaterial errors Our first set of empirical tests presents short window returns to immaterial error announcements. We report mean three day (0, +2) cumulative abnormal (size-adjusted) returns for announcements of immaterial errors, centered at the announcement date. The upper portion of Table 3 presents average cumulative abnormal returns for announcements of immaterial errors. The results suggest that, unconditional on whether an immaterial error is corrected by revision or out-of-period adjustment and unconditional on how the error is disclosed, announcements of immaterial error corrections are associated with small negative price adjustments, -0.3% on average with a t-statistic = -1.82, significant at approximately the 0.07 level (two-tailed); most of the negative reaction is associated with announcements of revisions (0.3% average price response, significant at approximately the 0.13 level). When we condition on how the error is disclosed, we find that the response to an immaterial error disclosed in a routine filing (form 10-Q or form 10-K) is not reliably different from zero (-0.2%, with a t-statistic of 1.06). However, when the error is disclosed in a non-routine filing such as an 8-K or an amended periodic filing, the price response is both larger in magnitude (-1.0%) and reliably negative at conventional levels (t-statistic = -1.95, significant at the 0.052 level). The difference in returns between routine and non-routine disclosures of immaterial error is significant at the 0.06 level. As a benchmark for comparison, we report mean three-day market reactions to material errors in the lower portion of Table 3. Consistent with prior research (e.g., Palmrose et al. 2004; Files et al. 2009) we find average negative market reactions to material errors of about -2.9%, significant at better than the 0.01 level. The market response to material error corrections disclosed in non-routine filings (mostly form 8-K) is also -2.9%, significant at better than the 0.01 level. Finally, the average market response to 33 material error corrections reported in a routine periodic filing (form 10-Q or form 10-K) is -3.3%, significantly negative at approximately the 0.11 level with a t-statistic of -1.64; the reduced level of significance may be 18 due to a small sample size. Using a significance level of 0.10, we find no reliable evidence that returns surrounding material error corrections differ between routine and non-routine disclosures. Table 3 reports a difference in price responses to immaterial error disclosures depending on whether the disclosure appears in a non-routine vs a routine filing. We conjecture that this difference may arise for two non-exclusive reasons. First, an error correction is more visible, hence more noticed by investors, when it appears in a non-routine filing than when it appears in a long and complex routine filing surrounded by a wealth of other (possibly correlated) financial information. Second, managers may disclose more severe immaterial errors in non-routine filings. To investigate this conjecture we first note that, as indicated in Tables 1 and 3, most announcements of immaterial error corrections occur in the same routine periodic filing (form 10-K or form 10-Q) that contains details of the correction plus all the other required information for that filing. This disclosure medium reflects a management choice about how to present information about the error. To separate the effect of the error correction per se, we regress the market reaction to an immaterial error announcement on both an indicator for disclosure in a non-routine filing (non-routine disclosure) and characteristics of the error itself. Specifically, we regress two-day size adjusted returns at the error announcement (the filing date) on three measures of the nature (the severity or importance) of the error: (1) absolute value of the income effect divided by total assets; (2) number of issues associated with the error as reported by Audit Analytics; (3) Non-reclassification, set to 1 if the error is not a reclassification adjustment only; (4) inclusion of language about the error in the audit report. As control variables, we include change in ROA; size (log of market value of equity); and book value of equity/market value of equity, a proxy for growth. Table 4 reports the results of this estimation for all immaterial errors and for revisions and out-of-period adjustments separately; we again report results for restatements for comparison purposes. For all immaterial errors considered together, results in column 1 indicate that only severity as measured by number of issues is reliably associated with more negative price responses (t-statistic = -2.22) and this effect is driven by revisions (column 2, t-statistic on number of issues = -2.06); the only reliably non-zero effect for out-of-period adjustments is associated with non-classifications (coefficient = -0.04, with a t-statistic = -1.67). Turning now to salience as captured by announcing the error in a non-routine disclosure, we find that non-routine disclosure is associated with a more negative price response for immaterial errors as a whole 19 (estimated coefficient = -0.0091, t-statistic = -1.66) with most of this effect arising from nonroutine disclosure of out-of-period adjustments (coefficient = -0.0317, t-statistic = -2.04).21 Column (4) reports market reactions to material errors (restatements) which we use to benchmark results of immaterial errors. We see that three variables related to error severity are associated with more negative price responses at the 0.10 level or better (income effect; number of issues and auditor language), but disclosure in a non-routine filing is not.22 The explanatory power of this regression, 5.8%, is over three times greater than the explanatory power of any immaterial error regression, suggesting differences how investors process information about material errors vs immaterial errors. Viewed as a whole, the results in Tables 3 and 4 suggest that investors respond negatively to announcements of immaterial errors, especially to those corrected as revisions, those including a larger number of issues and those disclosed in a non-routine filing. Investor responses to immaterial errors, especially revisions, are also linked to firm size (which moderates the price response). In all cases, the investor response to an immaterial error is appreciably less in both magnitude and significance than to a material error that is disclosed in a press release or 8-K report. We interpret these findings as evidence of, first, the equity-valuation relevance of immaterial errors that are corrected as revisions and second, the importance of error severity and channel of error disclosure in analyzing share price responses to immaterial errors.23 5.3 Predictive ability of immaterial errors for the reliability of financial reporting systems As previously discussed, we posit that errors deemed immaterial by management can nonetheless indicate either problems with or improvements in the entity’s financial reporting. If so, these errors should be associated with future adverse reporting outcomes that indicate a lack of reporting system reliability. To shed light on this possibility, we consider two adverse 21 Detailed review of non-routine disclosures of adjustments confirms that these disclosures do not co-mingle with other, more severe error disclosures, but could be disclosed with other negative news (e.g. late or amended filing, press release, 8-K). 22 As shown in Table 1, approximately 85% of restatements of material errors are announced in press releases or form 8-K. 23 In untabulated tests, we repeat the Table 4 analysis using investor disagreement, proxied by stock return volatility (the standard deviation of returns over the 7-days beginning with the error announcement) as the dependent variable, after controlling for return volatility at preceding 10-K or 10-Q filing dates. For material errors, we find that error magnitude (the absolute income effect/total assets) is positively associated with volatility (t-statistic = 1.94). In the case of immaterial errors, the presence of auditor language (non-routine disclosure) is negatively (positively) associated with immaterial errors as whole, mostly because of the associations for revisions. 20 reporting outcomes that indicate lack of reliability of the financial reporting system: future reporting errors (section 5.3.1) and future material weaknesses in internal controls (section 5.3.2). 5.3.1 Predicting future financial reporting errors We examine the predictability of immaterial errors for future reporting errors using the following model: Errort+1 = α0+ α1Immaterial Errort + α2 Material Errort + α3 Controlst + α4 Yeart + α5 Industryt + et (3) In equation (3) the dependent variable is an indicator set to 1 if the firm corrected a material or immaterial financial reporting error at period t+1 and the main test variable is an indicator set to 1 for an immaterial reporting error corrected at period t; we again include an indicator for material errors for comparison purposes. Similar to the restatement and bankruptcy literature, we use a pooled cross-sectional approach that includes all treatment and control observations with available data.24 We measure errors by the period they are discovered and reported, not by the period affected, to avoid a mechanical relation driven by the fact that errors often affect multiple financial reporting periods. Immaterial Errort is an indicator equal to 1 if the firm reported a revision or an adjustment in period t. Material Errort is an indicator equal to 1 if the firm reported a material error in an Item 4.02 disclosure in period t. A finding that α1 > 0 indicates predictive ability of a current period immaterial error for a future (period t+1) error. As the dependent variable is binary, we estimate equation (3) using logit. We include year fixed effects, industry fixed effects with industry defined as two digit SIC codes, and we cluster standard errors by firm.25 24 An alternate approach is to use a matched sample design that matches firms with errors (material weaknesses) with otherwise similar firms that do not have errors (material weaknesses). We do not use a matched sample design for two reasons. First, the purpose of the test is prediction, not an evaluation as to whether errors in period t cause errors in period t+1 as implied by a matched sample design. Second, a matched sample approach distorts the unconditional probability of an error such that coefficients and marginal effects may be affected if strict assumptions are not satisfied (e.g., Zmijewski 1984, Section 3). 25 Sample sizes vary across Tables 5, 6 and 7 because some industry fixed effects are perfect predictors of various errors (material weakness) that leads to sample attrition. We estimate Equation 3 in OLS to confirm documented results are not affected by concerns with estimating logit models with industry fixed effects and find that our inferences are not affected except that we find larger marginal effects in OLS results than in those tabulated. 21 We identify and define control variables based on studies that examine the determinants of restatements (e.g., Burns and Kedia 2006; Efendi et al. 2007). We include an indicator if the firm has a material weakness (MW) as this should predict material errors (e.g., Rice and Weber 2012). We include an indicator if the firm has a large auditor (Big 4). We control for firm size (MVE, logarithm of market value of equity), book-to-market ratio (BM), reported losses (LOSS, indicator set to 1 for loss years), performance (EARN, net income/total assets), leverage (LEVERAGE, long-term debt/assets), significant acquisition activity (ACQUISITION, indicator set to 1 for years when sales related to acquisitions exceeds 20 percent of total sales), capital raising activity (CAPITAL RAISING, indicator set to 1 for years when debt and equity capital raised exceeds 20 percent of assets), intangible investment (INTAN, (Advertising + R&D)/total assets), capital investment (CAPEX, capital expenditures/assets), and percentage of institutional ownership (INST OWN) as of year-end from the Thompson Reuters 13F filings. Table 5 reports the results of estimating equation (3) when the dependent variable (Error) is a material error (i.e., restatement) in period t+1 and the test variable is a period t immaterial error. Column 1 shows results for all immaterial errors combined (both revisions and out-ofperiod adjustments) and Column 2 shows results for the two types of immaterial errors separately. From Column 1, a period t immaterial error is associated with a greater likelihood of discovering a future restatement (p<0.01), as are current period restatements (p < 0.01). Using a marginal effects analysis that evaluates other variables at the mean, we find that the marginal effect of an immaterial error is a 0.99% increase in the probability of future material errors, comparable to the marginal effect of a material error, 0.77%.26 To place these effects in context, the unconditional probability of a material error is 2.2% in our sample period (untabulated). An F-test confirms there is no statistically reliable difference between the coefficients on immaterial errors and material errors (p=0.61; untabulated). As shown in Column 2, the predictive ability of immaterial errors for future restatements (that is, material errors) comes from revisions, not outof-period adjustments, supported by a positive and significant coefficient on revisions (p<0.01, marginal effect 1.4%), and an insignificant coefficient on out-of-period adjustments (p>0.10). While the coefficient on revisions (0.69) exceeds the coefficient on restatements (0.45) the differences are not significant using an F-test (p=0.27; untabulated). 26 We also evaluate average marginal effects, which tend to be similar to, and slightly higher than, the marginal effects reported. 22 Results for control variables are consistent with results from prior research, in that future restatements are positively associated with material weaknesses in internal controls, loss incidence, acquisitions and capital raising and are less likely for larger firms, firms with Big 4 auditors and firms with greater leverage. The greatest marginal effect, not surprisingly, arises from a material weakness (11.6% increase in the probability of a future restatement). Other marginal effects are smaller and in many cases are comparable to the marginal effect of reporting an error corrected as a revision. Table 6 reports the results of estimating equation (3) when the dependent variable is both types of immaterial errors combined (Panel A) and separately for revisions and out-of-period adjustments (Panel B). Results in Panel A indicate that immaterial errors are likely to reoccur and are likely to follow restatements; coefficients on both variables are significant at the 0.05 level or better. However, the coefficients are significantly different (p<0.01; untabulated), as immaterial errors have a much larger coefficient (1.06) relative to restatements (0.34). In terms of marginal effects, an immaterial error is associated with an 8.8% increase in the probability of a future immaterial error, exceeding the marginal effect of a restatement (2.2% increase). The unconditional probability of reporting a future immaterial error in our sample is 7.5% (untabulated). When revisions are considered separately from out-of-period adjustments as predictors of any type of immaterial error (Column 2), each type of error has predictive ability for future immaterial errors, with estimated coefficients that are significant at better than the 0.01 level and significantly different using F-tests (p<0.01; untabulated). The marginal effect of a revision is a 5.8% increase in the likelihood of a future immaterial error, smaller than the marginal effect of an out-of-period adjustment (11.3%) and larger than the marginal effect of a restatement (2.0%). Results for control variables are similar to results reported in Table 5, except that greater profitability is reliably associated with fewer immaterial errors in period t+1 while leverage is unrelated; intangibles intensity and institutional ownership are, respectively, negatively and positively associated with future immaterial errors. Panel B of Table 6 reports results of estimating equation (3) separately for period t+1 revisions (Column 1) and out-of-period adjustments (Column 2). In these specifications, restatements decline in both significance (t-statistics for estimated coefficients on restatements in the regressions with t+1 revisions and out-of-period adjustments as dependent variables are 1.90 and 1.25 respectively), while both revisions and adjustments predict both types of immaterial 23 errors. Coefficients on both types of errors indicate significance at the 0.01 level or better. The marginal effect of a current period revision is a 4.5% (1.1%) increase in the probability of a future revision (out-of-period adjustment) and the marginal effect of a current period out-ofperiod adjustment is a marginal increase of 3.3% for revisions and 5.2% for out-of-period adjustments. Untabulated F-tests indicate differences in explanatory power between revisions and adjustments when predicting future adjustments (p<0.01), but provide no evidence of a difference when predicting future revisions. The unconditional probability of reporting a future revision and out-of-period adjust in our sample is 4.8% and 3.1%, respectively (untabulated). We interpret the results of Tables 5 and 6 as indicating that immaterial errors, especially revisions, contain information about the future likelihood of material errors and that this information, as measured by a marginal effects analysis, is comparable to the information in a material error itself. Furthermore, current period immaterial errors increase the likelihood of future immaterial errors, which are themselves adverse indicators of financial reporting quality. Taken together, these results provide a potential explanation for investor attention to the reporting of immaterial errors, namely, investors assess firms that report immaterial errors as having relatively poorer financial reporting quality. 5.3.2 Predicting future material weakness Rice, Weber, and Wu (2015) show increased capital market penalties for firms reporting material errors if those firms had previously disclosed internal control deficiencies (material weaknesses). In addition, results in Tables 5 and 6 (and results in previous research) indicate that material weaknesses are predictors of restatements and immaterial errors. Building on these findings, we evaluate whether immaterial errors are informative for future material weaknesses over internal controls, a precursor to material errors. These tests replace the dependent variable in Equation (3) with an indicator set to 1 if the firm reports a material weakness in period t+1 (Material Weakness). Except for this change, all control variables and regression specifications remain the same; in particular, we include the material weakness indicator for period t. A finding that α1>0 would indicate an association between current period reporting errors and future period internal control deficiencies. Table 7 reports the results of this analysis for revisions and out-of-period adjustments combined (Column 1) and for these two types of immaterial errors separately (Column 2). From 24 Column 1, both immaterial errors and material errors corrected by restatement are associated with future internal control deficiencies (p< 0.01). The marginal effect of a period t immaterial error on a period t+1 material weakness is 0.86%, compared to a 1.2% marginal effect of a restatement. Untabulated F-tests suggest no statistically reliable difference between the coefficients on immaterial errors and material errors (p=0.57). The unconditional probability of reporting a future material weakness in our sample is 2.2% (untabulated). The results in Column 2 suggest that the predictive ability of immaterial errors for material weaknesses in internal controls is associated with revisions, but not out-of-period adjustments. The predictive ability of restatements for material weaknesses in this specification is similar to that presented in Column 1. The marginal effects of immaterial and material errors are also similar, with approximately a 1.2% greater propensity for newly reported internal control weaknesses. Untabulated F-tests suggest no statistically reliable differences between the coefficients on revisions and restatements (p=0.57) and some evidence of statistical difference between revisions and adjustments (p=0.08). We interpret these results as corroborating the inferences from our analyses of the predictive ability of current period immaterial errors for future material and immaterial errors and as supporting the interpretation that immaterial financial reporting errors are indicators of poor reporting quality. Our main conclusion from Tables 5, 6 and 7 is that immaterial errors have the qualitative characteristic predictability for future (adverse) reporting outcomes. 5.4 Variation in predictive ability of immaterial errors as a function of persistence and severity In this section we present two extensions of the results in Tables 3 and 4, that investor responses to immaterial financial reporting errors are associated with indicators of the severity of those errors, and the results in Tables 5 and 6, that immaterial errors have predictive ability for future reporting errors. In section 5.4.1, consistent with the notion that even an immaterial reporting error could indicate poor quality financial reporting, we consider whether any material or immaterial reporting error in period t or period t-1 is reliably associated with a period t+1 reporting error, that is, error persistence. In section 5.4.2, consistent with the notion that investor responses to errors are associated with error severity, we consider whether error severity of period t errors is differentially associated with predictability of reporting errors and material weaknesses in period t+1. 25 5.4.1 Error persistence and predictive ability To assess whether a reporting error in either or both period t and period t-1 is linked to a period t+1 reporting error, we modify Equation (3) as follows: ErrorTypet+1 = α0+ α1ErrorTypet + α2 ErrorTypet-1 + α3 Controlst + α4 Yeart + α5 Industryt + et (4) In equation (4) the dependent variable is either a material error (restatement) in period t+1 or an immaterial error in period t+1. This specification is similar to Equation (3) except that the right-hand side variables include any of the three error types (material error, revision, out-ofperiod adjustment) in period t and/or in period t-1. In light of results in Tables 5 and 6, we expect α1 > for some error types; a finding that α2 > 0 indicates that errors are persistent. Control variables and industry and year variables are not changed from Tables 5 and 6. Results of estimating equation (4) are presented in Table 8. Consistent with results in Table 5, results for predicting period t+1 restatements, presented in column 1 for comparison purposes, show that period t revisions but not period t out-of-period adjustments are reliably associated with period t+1 restatements. With regard to error persistence, these results show that period t-1 immaterial errors are not associated with period t+1 restatements. Perhaps surprisingly, the coefficient on the period t-1 restatement is positive and significant at the 0.10 level but the coefficient on the period t restatement is not.27 In contrast, results for period t+1 immaterial errors, presented in column 2, show that both revisions and out-of-period adjustments in both period t and period t-1 are statistically linked to period t+1 immaterial errors, with coefficients significant at the 0.01 level or better. One interpretation of these results is that management responds differently to material errors than to immaterial errors. If the management response to a material error is immediate corrective action, there would be no statistical association between current period restatements and preceding-period restatements; but to the extent the corrective action is not entirely successful there would be some association between past (t-1) errors and future errors. On the other hand, if there is little or no management response to an immaterial error, under the view that the errors are not meaningful, then immaterial errors would be expected to persist. The results in Tables 6 27 We verify that this result is not due to high correlations which result in shared variation. Lagged autocorrelations of revisions, out-of-period adjustments and restatements have significance levels of 0.06 or weaker. 26 and 8 present corroborating support for the idea that investors respond negatively to immaterial reporting errors because those errors indicate a (persistently) poor quality financial reporting system. 5.4.2 Error severity and predictive ability As reported in Table 4, error severity measured as the absolute income effect/assets is not reliably associated with the price response to immaterial errors but the number of issues involved in the error is reliably negatively related to the price response to revisions. In Table 9, we report results of analyzing the associations between a period t+1 restatement (panel A), immaterial error (panel B) and internal control weakness (panel C) and the four measures of error severity considered in Table 4 (absolute income effect/assets; number of issues; indicator for nonreclassification errors; presence of auditor language about the error in the audit report). In panel A, we find that no period t restatement severity measure is reliably associated with period t+1 restatements, conditional on the effect of the period restatement itself. In contrast, two measures of immaterial error severity do have reliable associations: the income effect/assets and the number of issues are negatively and positively associated, respectively. Taken at face value, this result suggests that when confronted with a relatively larger immaterial error, management takes corrective action to deter future problems but the same is not true when severity is measured by an error that affects more than one issue. That is, management is more likely to attend to a larger problem and less likely to attend to multiple smaller problems. Panel B presents analogous results for immaterial errors; the number of issues and the presence of auditor language are positively related to t+1 immaterial errors at the 0.15 and 0.05 levels, respectively and there is no association between restatement severity indicators and t+1 immaterial errors. Finally, results in panel C suggest that both restatements and immaterial errors in period t are associated with period t+1 material weaknesses and error severity matters for restatements but not immaterial errors. Accepting these results at face value and placing them in the context of the results in Table 8, we infer that the internal control difficulties and reporting quality difficulties that manifest in immaterial errors tend to repeat regardless of their severity characteristics. 27 6.0 Conclusion We provide evidence on two qualitative characteristics of financial reporting errors deemed immaterial under authoritative guidance and benchmark this evidence against characteristics of errors deemed material by management and corrected by restatements. In contrast to previous research, our analysis distinguishes between two types of immaterial errors based on how those errors are corrected, as revisions or as out-of-period adjustments. We regard revisions as more likely to be informative than out-of-period adjustments because revisions are by definition large enough to distort current period financial reports. In contrast, out-of-period adjustments are smaller and possibly more likely to include a more heterogeneous group of financial reporting errors, ranging from reclassifications on the statement of cash flows to corrections of revenues. However, our results show that small versus large magnitude per se, as inferred from the classification of an error as corrected by revision versus out-of-period adjustment, does not in and of itself determine the qualitative characteristics of the reporting error. To assess the qualitative characteristic equity valuation relevance, we analyze the share price response to disclosures of immaterial errors. To assess whether immaterial errors have the qualitative characteristic predictability for poor reporting quality, we assess whether immaterial errors reported in the current period are associated with future material and immaterial financial reporting errors and future material weaknesses over internal controls. We find that immaterial errors corrected as revisions have discernible adverse share price responses that are smaller than the responses associated with restatements disclosed on Form 8-K. We also find that both immaterial errors corrected as revisions and immaterial errors corrected as out-of-period adjustments have predictive ability for poor reporting quality as measured by future material errors, future immaterial errors and future internal control material weaknesses. Based on these analyses, we conclude that errors deemed immaterial under authoritative guidance have the potential to affect shareholder inferences, not necessarily because of the errors themselves but rather because those errors are linked to future adverse reporting outcomes. This conclusion does not suggest a misapplication of the current guidance for materiality judgments, because that guidance does not specify consideration of future error incidence. However, to the extent the conclusion that shareholders use immaterial errors to assess financial reporting quality including future error incidence is descriptive of actual capital market outcomes, we suggest a 28 possible input to the Financial Accounting Standards Board in its consideration of promulgating additional guidance on preparer materiality judgments. 29 References Acito, A., J. J. Burks, and W. B. Johnson. 2009. Materiality decisions and the correction of accounting errors. The Accounting Review 84: 659-688. Badertscher, Brad A., and Jeffrey J. Burks. 2011. Accounting restatements and the timeliness of disclosures. Accounting Horizons 25.4 (2011): 609-29. DeFond, M.L. and J. Jiambalvo. 1991. The incidence and circumstances of accounting errors. The Accounting Review 66(3): 643-655. DeFond, M.L. and C. Lennox. 2015. Do PCAOB inspections improve the quality of internal control audits? Working paper, University of Southern California. Efendi, J., A. Srivastava, E. Swanson. 2007. Why do corporate managers misstate financial statements? The role of option compensation and other factors. Journal of Financial Economics 85(3): 667-708. Ernst and Young. 2014. Accounting changes and error corrections. Financial Reporting Developments. http://www.ey.com/UL/en/AccountingLink/Publications-library-FinancialReporting-Developments. Ettredge, M., K. Johnstone, M. Stone, and Q. Wang. 2011. The effects of firm size, corporate governance quality, and bad news on disclosure compliance. Review of Accounting Studies 16:866-889. Files, R., E. Swanson, and S. Tse. 2009. Stealth disclosure of accounting restatements. The Accounting Review 84 (5): 1495-1520. Glass Lewis & Co LLC. 2006. Getting It Wrong the First Time. A look at 2005’s record-breaking year for corporate restatements shows why investors can’t afford a return to pre-Enron securities regulation. San Francisco, CA: Glass Lewis. Gutierrez, E., M. Minutti-Meza, K. W. Tatum and M. Vulcheva. 2016. 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Reid, L., J.V. Carcello, C. Li and T. Neil. 2015b. Impact of auditor and audit committee report changes on audit quality and costs: Evidence from the United Kingdom. Working paper, University of Pittsburgh. Tan, C.E.L. and S. M. Young. 2014. An analysis of “little r” restatements. Working paper, Fordham University. Zmijewski, M. E. 1984. Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models. Journal of Accounting Research, (22): 59-82. 31 Appendix A: Examples of Material and Immaterial Financial Reporting Errors 1.0 Examples of restatements (corrections of material errors) 1.1 Williams Companies errors in periods 1/1/2011 – 12/31/2011 1.1.1 Williams Companies Item 4.02 in 8-K disclosed on 5/1/2012 On May 1, 2012, The Williams Companies, Inc. (the “Company”) will restate its financial statements in Amendment No. 2 on Form 10-K/A to its Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2011. The accounting correction reflected in the restated financial statements has no impact on our Consolidated Statement of Operations, Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows or previously announced earnings, cash flows and dividend guidance. The restated financial statements reflect an increase to our noncurrent deferred income tax liability and a corresponding decrease to capital in excess of par value for all periods presented. This increase to our deferred income tax liability would only result in a current tax payable if we disposed of our investment interest in Williams Partners L.P. (“WPZ”). Management has stated that it has no intent to dispose of this investment. Financial Metrics ($ in millions) Net income attributable to The Williams Companies, Inc. Total assets Total liabilities Total stockholders’ equity Increase in cash and cash equivalents As of and for the Year Ended December 31, 2011 Previously Reported Correction Restated $ $ $ $ $ 376 16,502 13,419 1,793 94 $ $ $ $ $ — — 497 (497) — $ 376 $ 16,502 $ 13,916 $ 1,296 $ 94 On April 26, 2012, management of the Company recommended, and on April 30, 2012 the audit committee of the Company’s board of directors (“Audit Committee”) concluded, that our previously issued financial statements filed on April 11, 2012 in our Amendment No. 1 on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December, 31, 2011, should no longer be relied upon because of a material error in such financial statements. Management and the Audit Committee discussed the matters relating to the restatement with Ernst & Young LLP, the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The restated financial statements reflect a correction to our noncurrent deferred income tax liability arising from the difference between our financial and income tax bases in our investment in WPZ related to gains previously recognized in stockholders’ equity on units that WPZ issued in prior years. Though the accounting correction had no impact on our Consolidated Statement of Operations or Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows, the error was material to the Consolidated Balance Sheet and Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity. In accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 810 Consolidation (and as previously issued as Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 160 Noncontrolling Interests in Consolidated Financial Statements—An Amendment of ARB No. 51), which was effective for us beginning January 1, 2009, on a prospective basis, and previously in accordance with our policy election under the Securities and Exchange Commission Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 51 Accounting for Sales of Stock by a Subsidiary, we recorded “gains” associated with such issuances of WPZ units as a component of our stockholders’ equity. 32 We previously had not recorded deferred income taxes associated with these equity “gains.” However, in accordance with ASC 740 Income Taxes, we have concluded that we should recognize deferred income taxes for the future tax effects arising from the difference between our financial and income tax bases in our WPZ investment resulting from these transactions. 1.1.2 Williams Companies 10-K/A filed on 5/1/2012 Explanatory Note This Amendment No. 2 on Form 10-K/A for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011, is filed to restate the Selected Financial Data in Item 6 and Controls and Procedures in Item 9A, both as filed in our Form 10-K on February 27, 2012, as well as the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data in Item 8, as filed in our Amendment No. 1 on Form 10-K/A on April 11, 2012. The restatement reflects a correction to our accounting for deferred income taxes related to our investment in Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ). More specifically, this impacts our noncurrent deferred income tax liability related to financial and income tax bases differences arising from amounts previously recognized in capital in excess of par value as a result of the issuance of common units of our consolidated master limited partnership, WPZ. The impact of the correction is an increase to our noncurrent deferred income tax liability and a corresponding decrease to capital in excess of par value for all periods presented. There is no impact to our Consolidated Statement of Operations or Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows. In accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 810 Consolidation (and as previously issued as Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 160 Noncontrolling Interests in Consolidated Financial Statements - An Amendment of ARB No. 51) (ASC 810), which was effective for us beginning January 1, 2009, on a prospective basis, and previously in accordance with our policy election under the Securities and Exchange Commission Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 51 Accounting for Sales of Stock by a Subsidiary, we recorded “gains” associated with such issuances of WPZ units as a component of our stockholders’ equity. We previously had not recorded deferred income taxes associated with these equity “gains”. However, in accordance with ASC 740 Income Taxes, we should recognize deferred income taxes for the future tax effects arising from the differences in our financial and income tax bases in our WPZ investment resulting from these transactions. This would only result in a current tax payable if we disposed of our investment interest in WPZ. Management has stated that it has no intent to dispose of this investment. See additional discussion of the correction within Note 1 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Item 8 of this filing. Basis of Presentation Correction of error The accompanying Consolidated Balance Sheet and Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity have been restated to correct an error related to our accounting for deferred income taxes associated with our investment in WPZ. In accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 810 Consolidation (and as previously issued as Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 160 Noncontrolling Interests in Consolidated Financial Statements - An Amendment of ARB No. 51) (ASC 810), which was effective for us beginning January 1, 2009, on a prospective basis, and previously in accordance with our policy election under the Securities and Exchange Commission Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 51 Accounting for Sales of Stock by a Subsidiary, we recorded “gains” associated with issuances of WPZ units as a component of our stockholders’ equity. 33 We previously had not recorded deferred income taxes associated with these transactions. However, in accordance with ASC 740 Income Taxes, we should recognize deferred income taxes for the future tax effects arising from the difference in our financial and income tax bases in our WPZ investment resulting from these transactions. The accompanying Consolidated Balance Sheet and Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity have been restated to reflect the correction. There is no impact to our Consolidated Statement of Operations or Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows. The correction resulted in an increase to our noncurrent deferred income tax liability and a corresponding decrease to capital in excess of par value for all periods presented, as detailed in the following table. Deferred income taxes Capital in excess of par value As of December 31, 2011 2010 2009 2008 (Millions) $ 497 $ 485 $ 457 $ 457 (497) (485) (457) (457) … THE WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET December 31, 2011 2010 (Millions, except per-share amounts) (Restated) (Restated) ASSETS Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents Accounts and notes receivable (net of allowance of $1 at December 31, 2011 and 2010, respectively) Inventories Assets of discontinued operations Regulatory assets Other current assets and deferred charges $ Total current assets Investments Property, plant, and equipment – net Assets of discontinued operations Regulatory assets, deferred charges, and other Total assets $ 889 $ 758 637 169 — 40 159 497 225 897 51 102 1,894 2,530 1,391 12,580 — 637 1,240 11,754 8,828 620 16,502 $ 24,972 LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Current liabilities: 34 Accounts payable Accrued liabilities Liabilities of discontinued operations Long-term debt due within one year $ Total current liabilities Long-term debt Deferred income taxes Liabilities of discontinued operations Regulatory liabilities, deferred income, and other Contingent liabilities and commitments (Note 16) Equity: Stockholders’ equity: Common stock (960 million shares authorized at $1 par value; 626 million shares issued at December 31, 2011 and 620 million shares issued at December 31, 2010) Capital in excess of par value Retained deficit Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) Treasury stock, at cost (35 million shares of common stock) Total stockholders’ equity Noncontrolling interests in consolidated subsidiaries Total equity Total liabilities and equity $ 691 631 — 353 $ 432 738 896 508 1,675 2,574 8,369 2,157 — 1,715 8,600 2,223 2,179 1,262 626 7,920 (5,820) 620 7,784 (478) (389) (82) (1,041) (1,041) 1,296 6,803 1,290 1,331 2,586 8,134 16,502 $ 24,972 35 1.2 Hartford Financial errors in periods 7/1/2012-9/30/2012 1.2.1 Hartford Financial 4.02 disclosure in 8-K dated 3/1/2013 Item 4.02 Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Compleo or Completed Interim Review As noted above, on February 25, 2013, based on accounting review and validation procedures performed in connection with the financial reporting and close process for the fourth quarter of 2012 and subsequent to the filing of the Third Quarter 2012 Form 10-Q, the Company identified that the impact of certain reinsurance recoverable balances associated with the Transaction was incorrectly omitted in determining the estimated gain or loss on disposition associated with the Transaction. On February 26, 2013, the Company preliminarily concluded that it would be necessary to recognize an estimated pre-tax loss on the Transaction of $533 million, comprised of the impairment of goodwill attributed to the Individual Life business of $342 million and a loss accrual for premium deficiency of $191 million, which should have been recorded in the third quarter of 2012. The estimate is subject to change pending final determination of the net assets sold, transaction costs, and other adjustments. Subsequent to the discovery of the error, management performed additional procedures in order to confirm the extent of the error. As a result of these procedures and the conclusions reached regarding the error, the Company is filing the Q3 Form 10Q/A to recognize such third quarter 2012 loss on disposition of business through the impairment of goodwill and a loss accrual for premium deficiency. Therefore, the Company has concluded that the previously issued financial statements contained in the Company's Third Quarter 2012 Form 10-Q should not be relied upon. The Company's Audit Committee has discussed the matters described above with Deloitte & Touche LLP, the Company's independent registered public accountants. 1.2.2 Hartford Financial 10-Q/A filed on 3/1/2013 for period ended 9/30/2012 18. Restatement The Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2012 and related disclosures in this Amendment No. 1 to the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q have been restated in accordance with the changes described below. On September 27, 2012, the Company announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Individual Life insurance business to The Prudential Insurance Company of America ("Prudential"), a subsidiary of Prudential Financial, Inc., (the "Transaction") for cash consideration of $615 consisting primarily of a ceding commission. The sale, which is structured as a reinsurance transaction, closed on January 2, 2013. Based on accounting review and validation procedures performed in connection with the financial reporting and close process for the fourth quarter of 2012 and subsequent to the filing of the Original Form 10-Q, the Company identified that the impact of certain reinsurance recoverable balances associated with the Transaction was incorrectly omitted in determining the estimated gain or loss on disposition associated with the Transaction. As a result of such identification, the Company concluded that it would be necessary to recognize an estimated pre-tax reinsurance loss on disposition of $533, comprised of the impairment of goodwill attributed to the Individual Life business of $342 and a loss accrual for premium deficiency of $191, which should have been recorded in the third quarter of 2012. The estimate is subject to change pending final determination of net assets sold, transaction costs, and other adjustments. The effect of the restatement on the Company’s Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet, Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations and Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows was as follows: 36 Goodwill Deferred income taxes, net Total assets Other liabilities Total liabilities Retained earnings Total liabilities and stockholders' equity As of September 30, 2012 As previously reported Adjustment As restated $ 1,006 $ (342) $ 664 $ 1,248 $ 145 $ 1,393 $ 308,918 $ (197) $ 308,721 $ 10,477 $ 191 $ 10,668 $ 285,548 $ 191 $ 285,739 $ 11,235 $ (388) $ 10,847 $ 308,918 $ (197) $ 308,721 Reinsurance loss on disposition Income (loss) from continuing operations before income taxes Income tax expense (benefit) Net income (loss) Net income (loss) available to common shareholders Total comprehensive income Income (loss) from continuing operations, net of tax, available to common shareholders per common share: Basic Diluted Net income (loss) available to common shareholders per common share: Basic Diluted Three Months Ended September 30, 2012 As previously As reported Adjustment restated $ — $ 533 $ 533 $ $ $ $ $ 511 108 401 391 1,440 $ $ $ $ $ (533) (145) (388) (388) (388) $ (22) $ (37) $ 13 $ 3 $ 1,052 $ $ 0.90 0.83 $ $ (0.89) (0.82) $ $ 0.01 0.01 $ $ 0.90 0.83 $ $ (0.89) (0.82) $ $ 0.01 0.01 37 Reinsurance loss on disposition Income (loss) from continuing operations before income taxes Income tax expense (benefit) Net income (loss) Net income (loss) available to common shareholders Total comprehensive income Income (loss) from continuing operations, net of tax, available to common shareholders per common share: Basic Diluted Net income (loss) available to common shareholders per common share: Basic Diluted Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012 As previously As reported Adjustment restated $ — $ 533 $ 533 $ $ $ $ $ 264 (136) 396 365 2,440 $ $ $ $ $ (533) (145) (388) (388) (388) $ (269) $ (281) $ 8 $ (23) $ 2,052 $ $ 0.84 0.79 $ $ (0.88) (0.83) $ $ (0.04) (0.04) $ $ 0.83 0.78 $ $ (0.88) (0.83) $ $ (0.05) (0.05) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012 As previously As reported Adjustment restated Operating Activities: Net income (loss) Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Change in accrued and deferred income taxes Reinsurance loss on disposition Net cash provided by operating activities $ 396 $ (388) $ $ $ $ (118) — 2,212 $ $ $ (145) 533 — $ $ $ 8 (263) 533 2,212 38 2.0 Examples of Corrections of Immaterial Errors: Revisions 2.1 Nike Inc Errors in periods 12/1/2012 – 2/28/2013 disclosed in 10-Q on 4/7/2014 Revisions Certain prior year amounts have been revised in the unaudited condensed consolidated balance sheets to recognize certain inventory amounts held at third parties, which resulted in an increase in the amount of $96 million to both inventories and accrued liabilities. In addition, prior year amounts on the unaudited condensed consolidated statements of cash flows were revised to reflect the related cash flow impact of $36 million, which had no net impact on operating cash flows. Additionally, prior period amounts in the unaudited condensed consolidated statements of cash flows were revised for non-cash additions to property, plant, and equipment, which increased cash provided by operations and decreased cash provided by investing activities in the amount of $24 million. The Company assessed the materiality of these misstatements on prior periods’ financial statements in accordance with SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin ("SAB") No. 99, Materiality, codified in ASC 250 ("ASC 250"), Presentation of Financial Statements, and concluded that these misstatements were not material to any prior annual or interim periods. Future filings will include revisions to reflect the above adjustments. 2.2 ConocoPhillips errors in periods 10/1/2011 – 12/31/2011 disclosed in 10-Q on 7/31/12 Note 16—Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income Accumulated other comprehensive income in the equity section of the balance sheet included: Millions of Dollars Net Accumulated Unrealized Foreign Other Defined Gain on Currency Comprehensive Benefit Plans Securities Translation Hedging Income December 31, 2011* Other comprehensive income Separation of Downstream business $ June 30, 2012 $ — 5,223 76 1 334 6 417 683 — (469) — 214 — 3,877 (1,971) (1,212) 1 5,088 (6) 3,246 *The beginning balance of retained earnings has been restated primarily to reflect certain intercompany loans as permanently invested in 2004 and prior periods, which resulted in a $160 million increase in Foreign Currency Translation and Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, a $15 million decrease to Total Liabilities, and a $145 million reduction in Retained Earnings. The impact on net income and earnings per share was de minimis for the three- and six-month periods ended June 30, 2012 and 2011. There were no items within accumulated other comprehensive income related to noncontrolling interests. 39 2.3 Caterpillar Inc. errors in periods 1/1/2013-12/31/2013 disclosed in 10-Q on 8/1/2014 We have revised previously reported amounts on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow for the six months ended June 30, 2013 to correct for customer advances invoiced but not yet paid and to correct for certain non-cash transactions impacting Receivables - trade and other and Accounts payable. Although these revisions did not impact Net cash provided by operating activities, cash provided by Receivables - trade and other decreased by $200 million, cash provided by Accounts payable increased by $83 million and cash used for Customer advances decreased by $117 million from the amounts previously reported for the six month period ended June 30, 2013. Management has concluded that the impact was not material to any period presented. 2.4 Kraft Foods Group, Inc error in 1/1/2012 – 9/30/2012 disclosed in 10-Q on 10/31/2013 Beginning with the quarter ended September 28, 2013, we record expense related to certain consumer incentive programs as a reduction of net revenues. Previously, we included this expense in selling, general and administrative expenses. We have revised these prior periods to reflect this in our current presentation. The impacts of these revisions, which were not material to any prior period, reduced net revenues and selling, general and administrative expenses by $18 million in the three months and $66 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2012. We will present the corrected historical periods in future filings. 2.5 Corning Inc/NY error for periods 1/1/2010 – 12/31/2011 reported in 10-K on 2/13/2013 During 2012, the Company made corrections in the 2011 consolidated balance sheet for errors primarily related to the classification of deferred tax balances. These corrections resulted in (a) a $528.6 gross-up of “Deferred income tax assets – noncurrent” and “Deferred income tax liabilities – noncurrent” related to an incorrect application of the jurisdictional tax netting accounting requirements in 2011 and (b) a $36.9 correction in classification from “Deferred income tax assets – current” to “Other current assets” resulting from the tax effect on profits in inventory relating to intercompany sales. The Company determined that the cumulative impact of recording the corrections described above were not material, either individually or in aggregate, to any prior years. However, if uncorrected, the comparability of prior periods to 2012 would be impacted. Accordingly, the Company has revised its 2011 consolidated balance sheet. The impact of the corrections to the Company’s consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2011 was as follows: Previously Reported Consolidated Balance Sheet Deferred income tax assets – current Other current assets Deferred income tax assets – noncurrent $ 135.6 111.8 529.4 Adjustments $ (36.9) 36.9 528.6 Revised $ 98.7 148.7 1,058.0 40 Deferred income tax liabilities – noncurrent 1.6 528.6 530.2 In addition, the effect of the classification change between “Deferred income tax assets – current” and “Other current assets” impacted certain line items within the operating activities section of the consolidated statements of cash flows. The consolidated statements of cash flows have been revised as follows: Year ended December 31, 2010 Previously Reported Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows Changes in deferred taxes, net Changes in other operating assets and liabilities $ 151.9 Adjustments $ (5.7) 5.2 Revised $ (5.2) 157.1 (10.9) Year ended December 31, 2011 Previously Reported Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows Changes in deferred taxes, net Changes in other operating assets and liabilities $ 283.8 60.1 Adjustments $ (11.9) 11.9 Revised $ 271.9 72.0 Examples of Corrections of Immaterial Errors: Out-of-period adjustments 3.1 Caterpillar Inc. errors disclosed in 10-Q filed 5/2/2014 The provision for income taxes in the first quarter of 2014 also includes a charge of $55 million to correct for an error which resulted in an understatement of tax liabilities for prior years. This error had the effect of overstating profit by $27 million and$28 million for the years ended December 31, 2013 and 2012, respectively. These amounts are not material to the financial statements of any affected period. This charge was offset by a $33 million benefit to reflect a settlement with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) related to 1992 through 1994 which resulted in a $16 million benefit to remeasure previously unrecognized tax benefits and a $17 million benefit to adjust related interest, net of tax. The first quarter of 2013 tax provision also included a benefit of $87 million primarily related to the U.S. research and development tax credit that was extended for 2012. 41 3.2 General Dynamics Corporation error disclosed in 10-Q filed 5/1/2012 Out-of-period adjustments In the first quarter of 2012, we recorded adjustments impacting revenues, operating costs and contracts in process that reduced earnings before income taxes by $67. These adjustments were made after completing an analysis at one of our European subsidiaries related to recognition of contract receivables and relief of inventories that determined certain transactions were not recorded properly in prior periods. After evaluating the quantitative and qualitative effects of these adjustments, individually and in the aggregate, we have concluded that their impacts on the Company’s prior periods’ and current period Consolidated Financial Statements were not material. 3.3 Prudential corporation error disclosed in 10-K filed 2/27/2014 Out-of-period adjustments As previously disclosed in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, during 2012, the Company recorded out of period adjustments resulting in an aggregate net decrease of $170 million to “Income from continuing operations before income taxes and equity in earnings of operating joint ventures” for the year ended December 31, 2012. These adjustments primarily resulted from 1) a decline in the value of a real estate-related investment, where, based on a review of the underlying collateral and a related guarantee, the Company determined that impairments of $75 million should be recognized, of which $61 million should have been recorded in prior years; 2) an increase of $61 million in reserves for estimated payments arising from use of new Social Security Master Death File matching criteria to identify deceased policy and contract holders which should have been reflected in the third quarter of 2011; and 3) an increase of $54 million in recorded liabilities for certain employee benefits based on a review of the consistency of recognition of such liabilities across the Company which should have been recorded in prior years. Management evaluated the adjustments and concluded they were not material to any previously reported quarterly or annual financial statements. For additional information on the impact of these adjustments to our operating segments, see Note 22. 3.4 Marathon Petroleum Corporation error disclosed in 10-Q filed on 5/5/2014 During the three months ended March 31, 2014, we recorded an out-of-period adjustment for additional expenses related to the prior year's bonus programs of $29 million, included in total costs and expenses on the consolidated statements of income. The impact to our consolidated results of operations for three months ended March 31, 2014 and for the year ended December 31, 2013 was immaterial. We do not expect this adjustment to have a material impact to our results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2014. 42 Figure 1: Determination of Whether a Financial Reporting Error is Immaterial Identify Financial Statement Error: misapplication of GAAP or a misuse of facts at the time financial statements were prepared (ASC 250) Evaluate Materiality of Error using authoritative guidance (e.g. SAB 99, SAB 108) If preparer deems error as material (reasonable investor would view as important) If preparer deems errors as immaterial to each financial statement period considered in isolation Disclosure: Item 4.02 Statement of non-reliance disclosure in an 8-K and revised retrospective financial statements (i.e. Restatement) following SEC Rule 33-8400 Revision: summation of errors recorded this period distorts current period financial statements Disclosure: Nature of error, period which financials contain error, and summary of financial statement effects. Correction recorded in retained earnings, prior comparative financials revised (ASC 250) Out of Period Adjustment: summation of errors recorded this period does not distort current period financial statements Disclosure: Nature of error, summary of financial statement effects. Correction flows through current period net income (ASC 250) 43 Figure 2: Frequency of Financial Reporting Errors over Time, 2004-2014 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Restate 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Immaterial 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Restate 2009 2010 Revision 2011 2012 2013 2014 Adjust Figure 2 depicts the frequency of material errors (restatements) and immaterial errors (revisions and out-of-period adjustments) between 2004 and 2014. Data are from Audit Analytics. The top graph combines all immaterial errors and the bottom graph shows revisions separately from out-of-period adjustments, which are available starting 2008. 44 Figure 3: Distributions of Signed Income Effects for Restatement, Revision and Out-of-Period Adjustment Errors Figure 3 plots the signed income effect of restatements, revisions and out-of-period adjustments for the sample described in Table 1. The amounts shown are the income effect of the corrected error/total assets. 45 Table 1: Sample Determination Number of Observations Error Events From Audit Analytics that correspond to reports from fiscal periods ending after October 15, 2008 and before December 31, 2014 Less: Observations without Compustat links and related data Less: Observations without CRSP links, return, or price information Total error observations 6,103 (1,653) 4,450 (1,470) 2,980 Breakdown of error observations by type Number of restatement/material error (Big R error) observations Number of revision (little r error) observations Number of out-of-period adjustment error observations Total error observations 622 1,324 1,034 2,980 Total firm year observations28 2,837 28 There are 2,980 error instances and 2,837 firm year observations because some firm-year observations have more than one type of error. 46 Table 2: Sample Descriptive Statistics Panel A: Frequency of Error Characteristics for Revisions, Out-of-Period Adjustments and Material Errors (Restatements) Variable Announcement in 10-K Announcement in 10-Q Announcement in press release Announcement in 8-K Announcement in other Revisions Mean 34.2% 44.0% 5.8% 2.1% 13.9% Immaterial Errors Adjustments Combined Mean Mean 32.0% 33.3% 66.4% 53.8% 0.3% 3.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.2% 8.3% Material Errors Restatements Mean 3.5% 1.8% 29.7% 54.5% 10.5% SEC investigations involved Board involvement Auditor letter contains language about the error 0.5% 1.1% 37.7% 0.4% 0.6%% 28.7% 0.5% 0.8% 36.0% 12.1% 92.6% 96.1% Net income effect is zero Net income effect is positive Net income effect is negative Net income effect is missing 61.4% 11.3% 27.4% 1.4% 12.3% 36.2% 51.5% 14.2% 43.8% 20.3% 36.0% 6.6% 19.1% 21.1% 59.8% 3.2% |EPS Effect| / Price Without zero income effects |NI Effect| / |Pre tax Income| Without zero income effects |NI Effect| / |Total Assets| Without zero income effects 0.9% 2.4% 10.5% 27.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 6.8% 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 8.7% 15.5% 0.3% 0.6% 10.5% 14.0% 55.7% 68.9% 5.1% 6.3% Error affects classification only Number of financial reporting issues Number of Periods Affected (years) 20.9% 1.73 1.69 0.4% 1.46 10.8% 1.77 7.1% 1.77 1.75 Number of observations 1,324 1,034 2,358 622 47 Panel B: Frequency of Accounting Issues for Revisions, Out-of-Period Adjustments and Material Errors (Restatements) Issue Description Tax expense/benefit/deferral/other Cash flow statement classification Revenue recognition issues Expense (payroll, SGA, other) recording Liabilities, payables, reserves & accrual estimate failures Inventory, vendor and/or cost of sales issues Debt, quasi-debt, warrants & equity security Accounts/loans receivable, investments & cash Foreign, related party, affiliated, or subsidiary PPE intangible or fixed asset (value/diminution) Consolidation issues including Fin 46 variable interest & off-B/S Acquisitions, mergers, disposals, re-org acct Deferred, stock-based and/or executive comp Foreign, subsidiary Acquisitions and mergers PPE issues - Intangible assets, goodwill Depreciation, depletion or amortization Consolidation, foreign currency/inflation Fin Statement, footnote & segment disclosure Balance sheet classification of assets Pension and other post-retirement benefit EPS, ratio and classification of income statement Financial derivatives/hedging (FAS 133) Intercompany, investment in subs./affiliate Immaterial Errors Revision Adjustments Combined Mean Mean Mean 19.9% 31.8% 27.4% 25.8% 0.5% 15.9% 10.1% 11.5% 11.5% 8.5% 9.9% 9.9% Material Errors Restate Mean 15.6% 6.6% 17.7% 8.2% 7.6% 6.9% 8.7% 9.6% 7.5% 4.4% 9.3% 7.9% 7.2% 7.1% 9.0% 14.3% 8.4% 7.5% 4.5% 3.5% 7.1% 6.3% 12.9% 6.8% 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.8% 4.9% 5.1% 3.2% 6.6% 3.2% 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 4.3% 4.0% 1.7% 5.5% 5.6% 7.4% 2.3% 4.3% 3.8% 4.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.5% 3.0% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 7.2% 8.7% 5.6% 5.5% 6.8% 2.6% 3.7% 1.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 3.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.2% 2.0% 1.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 4.5% 3.4% 1.6% 48 Table 3: Cumulative Abnormal Returns Surrounding Error Announcements Error Type Immaterial Errors: Revision Out-of-period adjustment Combined Disclosed in routine filing (10-K or 10-Q) Disclosed in non-routine filing (amended filing, 8-K, press release, other) Material Errors (Restatements): Disclosed in routine filing (10-K or 10-Q) Disclosed in non-routine filing (amended filing, 8-K, press release, other) All restatements CAR (0, 2) Std Dev Q1 Median Q3 Test (CAR = 0) t p-value N Mean 1,324 1,034 2,358 -0.003 -0.002 -0.003 0.073 0.071 0.072 -0.027 -0.025 -0.026 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.003 -0.002 -0.003 -1.54 -1.00 -1.82 0.1238 0.3162 0.0685 2,053 305 -0.002 -0.010 0.069 0.090 -0.024 -0.051 0.000 -0.007 -0.002 -0.010 -1.06 -1.95 0.2906 0.0522 33 589 -0.033 -0.029 0.114 0.142 -0.078 -0.070 -0.023 -0.018 0.027 0.021 -1.64 -4.98 0.1098 0.0000 622 -0.029 0.141 -0.071 -0.018 0.021 -5.20 0.0000 Table 3 reports the average cumulative abnormal returns (size-adjusted) over the (0, 2) window surrounding error announcements, where day zero represents the day the error is announced. Reported p-values are two-sided. 49 Table 4: Cross-sectional Variation in Price Responses to Error Announcements Based on Error Severity and Means of Disclosure CAR (0, 2) = α0 + α1 Severity of Errort + α2 Controlst + α3 Yeart + e t Measures of Error Severity |NI effect| / Assets Number of Issues Non-Reclassification Auditor Language Disclosure Type Non-Routine Disclosure Controls Size Book to Market Change in ROA Observations R-squared All (1) -0.0841 (-0.35) -0.0037** (-2.22) 0.0005 (0.12) 0.0001 (0.04) -0.0091* Material Immaterial Revisions Adjustments Restatements (4) (2) (3) -0.0732 -0.0434 -0.2434** (-0.29) (-0.16) (-2.30) -0.0046** -0.0026 -0.0087* (-2.06) (-1.13) (-1.85) 0.0019 -0.0408* -0.0310 (0.37) (-1.67) (-0.85) 0.0007 -0.0087 -0.0398* (0.16) (-0.74) (-1.70) -0.0072 -0.0317** 0.0022 (-1.66) 0.0026** (2.25) 0.0007 (0.23) 0.0109 (0.83) (-1.23) 0.0033** (2.27) 0.0027 (0.62) 0.0114 (0.69) (-2.04) 0.0015 (0.79) -0.0029 (-0.70) 0.0062 (0.26) (0.11) -0.0080 (-1.35) -0.0155 (-1.47) 0.0418 (1.59) 2,184 0.014 1,298 0.017 886 0.019 598 0.058 Table 4 presents the results of regressing the cumulative abnormal returns (size-adjusted) surrounding error correction announcements on measures of error severity and an indicator variable for Non-Routine Disclosure that takes the value 1 if the error is announced in a non-routine disclosure, zero otherwise. Returns are over the (0, 2) window, where day zero represents the day the error is announced. |NI effect|/Assets is the absolute value of the error’s effect on net income scaled by assets. Number of Issues is the number of error-related issues identified by Audit Analytics in the error announcement. Non-Reclassification is an indicator set equal to 1 if the error does not represent only a reclassification of a financial statement item where one or more of the issues in Table 2 Panel A are present with no other issues (Tax-Fin 48 reclassification, balance sheet classification of assets, cash flow statement classification, Debt and/or equity classification, and EPS ratio classification issues). Auditor Language is an indicator variable set equal to 1 if the firm’s auditor provided modified language in the audit report in connection with the error. Size is the log of market value of equity. Book to market is common equity divided by market value of equity. Change in ROA is net income before extraordinary items divided by assets for period t less period t-1. Regressions include year fixed effects with standard errors clustered by firm. Statistical significance (two-sided) is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. 50 Table 5: Predictive Ability of Current Period Immaterial Errors for Future Period Material Errors (Restatements) Restatet+1 = α0+ α1Immaterial Errort + α2 Material Errort + α3Controlst + α4Yeart + α5Industryt + et Error Types Immaterial Error Logit 0.5305*** (3.95) (1) Marginal Effects 0.0099*** (3.20) Revision Adjustment Restate Controls Material Weakness Big 4 Size Book to Market Loss Earnings Leverage Acquisition Capital raising Intangibles Capital Expenditures Institutional Ownership Observations Pseudo R2 0.4254** (2.50) 2.3318*** (16.52) -0.7338*** (-6.84) -0.1064*** (-4.49) 0.0011 (0.05) 0.3727*** (3.77) -0.0184 (-1.15) -0.1090*** (-2.68) 0.5267*** (2.76) 0.5613*** (6.19) -0.2113 (-0.99) 0.1411 (0.21) 0.0008 (0.48) 0.0077** (2.06) 0.1157*** (7.40) -0.0119*** (-6.23) -0.0016*** (-4.47) 0.0000 (0.05) 0.0058*** (3.62) -0.0003 (-1.14) -0.0016*** (-2.67) 0.0100** (2.19) 0.0096*** (5.43) -0.0031 (-0.99) 0.0021 (0.21) 0.0000 (0.48) 31,525 0.105 Logit (2) Marginal Effects 0.6879*** (4.64) 0.0400 (0.16) 0.4503*** (2.65) 2.3323*** (16.48) -0.7240*** (-6.74) -0.1063*** (-4.48) 0.0014 (0.07) 0.3691*** (3.73) -0.0180 (-1.12) -0.1096*** (-2.69) 0.5247*** (2.75) 0.5630*** (6.22) -0.2092 (-0.98) 0.1512 (0.22) 0.0010 (0.57) 0.0140*** (3.49) 0.0006 (0.15) 0.0082** (2.16) 0.1156*** (7.40) -0.0117*** (-6.13) -0.0016*** (-4.47) 0.0000 (0.07) 0.0057*** (3.58) -0.0003 (-1.12) -0.0016*** (-2.68) 0.0099** (2.18) 0.0096*** (5.45) -0.0031 (-0.98) 0.0022 (0.22) 0.0000 (0.57) 31,525 0.106 51 Notes: Restate at t and t+1 is an indicator set to 1 if the firm has an error reported in an Item 4.02 8-K which denotes the error is materially affecting prior financial statements. Immaterial error is an indicator set to 1 if the firm has either a Revision or Adjustment error in period t. Revision (adjustment) is an indicator if the immaterial error was not disclosed in an Item 4.02 8-K, but was corrected by adjusting prior (current) year financial statement values to correct the error. Material Weakness (Unqualified Opinion) [Big 4] are indicators if the firm disclosed at least one material weakness over internal controls (auditor noted an unqualified opinion with language) [auditor is among Deloitte, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, KPMG, or Ernst & Young]. Size is the log of market value of equity. Book to market is common equity divided by market value of equity. Loss is an indicator if net income before extraordinary items is less than zero. Earnings is net income before extraordinary items scaled by assets. Leverage is long term debt divided by total assets. Acquisition is an indicator set to l to one if sales related to acquisitions exceeds 20% of total sales. Capital Raising is an indicator set to one if debt and equity capital raised exceeds 20% of assets. Intangibles is the sum of advertising and research and development expenses divided by total assets. Capital expenditures is capital expenditures divided by total assets. Institutional Ownership is the percentage of shares held by institutional investors in the last quarter of the fiscal year. We include year and industry (defined as 2 digit SIC code) fixed effects with standard errors clustered by firm. Statistical significance (two-sided) is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. 52 Table 6: Predictive Ability of Current Period Immaterial Errors for Future Period Immaterial Errors Panel A. All Immaterial Errors Immaterial Errort+1 = α0 + α1 Error Typest + α2 Controlst + α3Yeart + α4 Industryt + e Error Types Immaterial Error Logit 1.0603*** (15.66) (1) Marginal Effects Adjustment Controls Material Weakness Big 4 Size Book to Market Loss Earnings Leverage Acquisition Capital raising Intangibles Capital Expenditures Institutional Ownership Observations Pseudo R2 0.3418** (2.46) 0.9198*** (8.22) 0.7772*** (11.16) -0.0347** (-2.30) -0.0162 (-1.01) 0.2249*** (4.00) -0.0421** (-2.56) 0.0126 (0.34) 0.4573*** (3.99) 0.2007*** (3.67) -0.6396*** (-3.45) -0.4099 (-0.87) 0.0076*** (8.84) 0.7655*** (9.16) 1.2261*** (13.35) 0.3173** (2.27) 0.9219*** (8.17) 0.7692*** (10.96) -0.0347** (-2.29) -0.0169 (-1.05) 0.2282*** (4.05) -0.0426*** (-2.58) 0.0142 (0.38) 0.4607*** (4.01) 0.2001*** (3.64) -0.6351*** (-3.42) -0.4367 (-0.92) 0.0074*** (8.58) 0.0576*** (6.98) 0.1129*** (8.85) 0.0199** (2.00) 0.0753*** (5.86) 0.0400*** (11.61) -0.0019** (-2.29) -0.0009 (-1.04) 0.0128*** (3.97) -0.0023*** (-2.59) 0.0008 (0.38) 0.0308*** (3.35) 0.0115*** (3.48) -0.0349*** (-3.43) -0.0240 (-0.92) 0.0004*** (8.65) 0.0879*** (11.14) Revision Restate Logit (2) Marginal Effects 0.0217** (2.15) 0.0749*** (5.90) 0.0403*** (11.80) -0.0019** (-2.30) -0.0009 (-1.01) 0.0126*** (3.92) -0.0023** (-2.57) 0.0007 (0.34) 0.0304*** (3.33) 0.0115*** (3.51) -0.0351*** (-3.46) -0.0225 (-0.87) 0.0004*** (8.90) 31,937 0.074 31,937 0.075 53 Panel B. Immaterial Errors separated into Revisions and Out-of-Period Adjustments (Revision or Adjustment)t+1 = α0 + α1 Error Typest + α2 Controlst + α3 Yeart + α4 Industryt + et (1) Revisiont+1 Error Types Revision Adjustment Restate Controls Material Weakness Big 4 Size Book to Market Loss Earnings Leverage Acquisition Capital raising Intangibles Capital Expenditures Institutional Ownership Observations Pseudo R2 Logit 0.8222*** (8.64) 0.6517*** (5.71) 0.3044* (1.90) 1.0454*** (8.29) 0.5235*** (6.55) -0.0393** (-2.29) -0.0122 (-0.61) 0.2377*** (3.60) -0.0459*** (-2.71) 0.0248 (0.64) 0.4563*** (3.39) 0.1990*** (3.11) -0.6189*** (-2.95) -0.2112 (-0.40) 0.0050*** (5.13) Marginal Effects 0.0448*** (6.35) 0.0332*** (4.40) 0.0133* (1.68) 0.0642*** (5.58) 0.0191*** (6.84) -0.0015** (-2.28) -0.0005 (-0.61) 0.0093*** (3.51) -0.0017*** (-2.71) 0.0009 (0.64) 0.0213*** (2.80) 0.0079*** (2.98) -0.0235*** (-2.96) -0.0080 (-0.40) 0.0002*** (5.15) 31,932 0.055 (2) Adjustmentt+1 Logit 0.5790*** (4.66) 1.5787*** (13.79) 0.2851 (1.25) 0.6277*** (3.68) 1.4627*** (9.83) -0.0172 (-0.72) -0.0242 (-0.88) 0.1960** (2.17) 0.2138** (2.57) -0.0834 (-0.71) 0.4081** (2.29) 0.2140** (2.39) -0.4821 (-1.18) -0.7951 (-1.00) 0.0112*** (7.95) Marginal Effects 0.0112*** (3.62) 0.0517*** (7.11) 0.0048 (1.10) 0.0126*** (2.75) 0.0203*** (10.73) -0.0003 (-0.72) -0.0004 (-0.88) 0.0030** (2.13) 0.0032*** (2.63) -0.0012 (-0.71) 0.0073* (1.90) 0.0034** (2.26) -0.0071 (-1.19) -0.0118 (-1.00) 0.0002*** (7.61) 31,841 0.124 All variables are as defined in Table 5. We include year and industry (defined as 2 digit SIC code) fixed effects with standard errors clustered by firm. Statistical significance (two-sided) is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. 54 Table 7: Predictive Ability of Current Period Immaterial Errors for Future Period Material Weaknesses Material Weaknesst+1 = α0 + α1 Error Typest + α2 Controlst + α3 Yeart + α4 Industryt + et (1) Marginal Effects Error Types Immaterial Error Logit 0.5071*** (4.04) Logit 0.6282*** (3.29) 2.7810*** (22.23) 0.0843 (0.69) 0.0408* (1.67) -0.0445 (-1.40) 0.3487*** (3.35) 0.0300 (0.79) -0.6681*** 0.0116** (2.47) 0.1627*** (9.19) 0.0011 (0.69) 0.0006* (1.68) -0.0006 (-1.41) 0.0049*** (3.25) 0.0004 (0.79) -0.0091*** 0.6566*** (3.45) 0.6548*** (4.51) 0.2266 (1.17) 2.7700*** (22.06) 0.0869 (0.71) 0.0416* (1.70) -0.0461 (-1.44) 0.3460*** (3.31) 0.0304 (0.79) -0.6733*** (-3.64) 1.0092*** (5.85) 0.2988*** (2.98) -0.3655 (-1.19) 1.5324** (2.27) 0.0004 (0.29) (-3.95) 0.0226*** (3.80) 0.0044*** (2.79) -0.0050 (-1.19) 0.0208** (2.29) 0.0000 (0.29) (-3.65) 1.0056*** (5.81) 0.3016*** (3.01) -0.3631 (-1.18) 1.5291** (2.27) 0.0005 (0.33) Adjustment Controls Material Weakness Big 4 Size Book to Market Loss Earnings Leverage Acquisition Capital raising Intangibles Capital Expenditures Institutional Ownership Observations Pseudo R2 Marginal Effects 0.0086*** (3.29) Revision Restate (2) 31,310 0.139 0.0120*** (3.42) 0.0034 (1.05) 0.0122** (2.57) 0.1608*** (9.13) 0.0012 (0.71) 0.0006* (1.71) -0.0006 (-1.45) 0.0049*** (3.21) 0.0004 (0.80) 0.0091*** (-3.97) 0.0224*** (3.78) 0.0044*** (2.81) -0.0049 (-1.18) 0.0207** (2.29) 0.0000 (0.33) 31,310 0.140 All variables are as defined in Table 5. We include year and industry (defined as 2 digit SIC code) fixed effects with standard errors clustered by firm. Statistical significance (two-sided) is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. 55 Table 8: Persistence of Material Errors (Restatements) and Immaterial Errors Error Typet+1 = α0 + α1 Error Typest + α2 Error Typest-1 + α3 Controlst + α4Yeart + α5 Industryt + e (1) Restatet+1 Error Types Immaterial Errort Immaterial Errort-1 0.4829*** (3.05) 0.0908 (0.48) Revisiont 0.2925 (1.39) 0.3702* (1.80) 0.6629*** (3.76) -0.0643 (-0.27) -0.0292 (-0.11) 0.2694 (0.93) 0.3225 (1.54) 0.3682* (1.81) 24,016 0.117 24,016 0.118 Revisiont-1 Adjustmentt Adjustmentt-1 Restatet Restatet-1 Observations Pseudo R2 (2) Immaterial Error t+1 1.0167*** (15.09) 0.7207*** (9.46) 0.7181*** (8.14) 0.5104*** (5.10) 1.1496*** (12.40) 0.8378*** (7.91) 0.2253 0.2107 (1.36) (1.26) 0.2138 0.1967 (1.29) (1.17) 24,611 0.086 24,611 0.088 56 Table 9: Predictive Ability of Error Severity for Future Material Errors (Restatements), Immaterial Errors and Material Weaknesses Panel A. Material Errors Restatet+1 = α0+ α1Immaterial Errort + α2Immaterial Errort x Severityt+ α3 Material Errort + α4 Material Errort x Severityt+α5Controlst + α6Yeart + α7Industryt + et Immaterial Error Immaterial Error x |NI effect| / Assets (1) 0.6839*** (4.07) -27.1049* (-1.94) (2) 0.1384 (0.64) (3) 0.4935*** (3.47) 0.2197** (2.46) Immaterial Error x Number of Issues Immaterial Error x Non-Reclassification -0.3534 (-0.95) Immaterial Error x Auditor Language Restate Restate x |NI effect| / Assets 0.5962*** (3.04) -0.5803 (-0.70) Restate x Number of Issues 0.2580 (0.93) 0.4376** (2.49) -0.5070 (-0.46) -0.4247 (-0.53) 0.0898 (0.76) 0.2458 (0.33) Restate x Non-Reclassification Restate x Auditor Language Observations R-squared (4) 0.5419*** (3.99) 0.8984 (1.11) 30,954 0.108 31,525 0.106 31,525 0.105 31,525 0.106 57 Panel B. Immaterial Errors Immaterial Errort+1 = α0+ α1Immaterial Errort + α2Immaterial Errort x Severityt+ α3 Material Errort + α4 Material Errort x Severityt+α5Controlst + α6Yeart + α7Industryt + et Immaterial Error Immaterial Error x |NI effect| / Assets (1) 1.0766*** (14.43) -1.0611 (-0.26) (2) 0.9467*** (9.06) (3) 1.0824*** (15.25) 0.0659 (1.44) Immaterial Error x Number of Issues Immaterial Error x Non-Reclassification 0.2165 (1.13) Immaterial Error x Auditor Language Restate Restate x |NI effect| / Assets 0.1855 (1.12) 0.4736 (0.67) Restate x Number of Issues 0.5354** (2.22) 0.3166** (2.19) 0.7050** (2.24) 0.2235 (0.40) -0.1060 (-0.94) -0.3346 (-0.68) Restate x Non-Reclassification Restate x Auditor Language Observations R-squared (4) 1.0422*** (15.21) 0.1291 (0.22) 31,363 0.075 31,937 0.074 31,937 0.074 31,937 0.074 58 Panel C. Material Weaknesses Material Weaknesst+1 = α0+ α1Immaterial Errort + α2Immaterial Errort x Severityt+ α3 Material Errort + α4 Material Errort x Severityt+α5Controlst + α6Yeart + α7Industryt + et Immaterial Error Immaterial Error x |NI effect| / Assets (1) 0.5706*** (4.17) 6.2838 (1.35) (2) 0.3620* (1.70) (3) 0.5117*** (3.95) 0.0808 (0.84) Immaterial Error x Number of Issues Immaterial Error x Non-Reclassification 0.0685 (0.15) Immaterial Error x Auditor Language Restate Restate x |NI effect| / Assets 0.6624*** (3.00) 0.5278 (0.91) Restate x Number of Issues 0.1203 (0.38) 0.6774*** (3.48) 0.2833 (0.39) -14.3887*** (-27.79) 0.2439** (2.13) 1.4183 (1.34) Restate x Non-Reclassification Restate x Auditor Language Observations R-squared (4) 0.5077*** (4.02) 15.0991*** (28.56) 30,746 0.137 31,310 0.140 31,310 0.139 31,310 0.140 59
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