Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
The 2nd Phase in the Battle for Mosul Begins
Jan. 6, 2017 Islamic State fighters are trying to draw coalition forces away from Mosul.
By Cheyenne Ligon
After an extended period of heavy casualties, limited progress and territorial losses to the
Islamic State, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) announced a pause in their advance on Mosul, thus
ending the first phase of the operation to recapture the besieged Iraqi city from IS. From Dec.
21-28, Mosul was largely quiet as the coalition regrouped and planned for the next stage of the
battle. On Dec. 29, the ISF announced a second phase in their plan to retake Mosul and resumed
operations. IS responded by carrying out a spate of attacks across Iraq on Monday. These
attacks simultaneously demonstrate IS’ strength at the strategic level and weakness at the
tactical level; though it remains capable of executing attacks across the country, IS is showing
its concern for the future of Mosul. Though we still believe this battle favors the ISF in the long
term and will continue well into 2017, these recent developments raise questions about IS’
future fighting abilities in Iraq.
The ISF have made significant progress in eastern Mosul since announcing the beginning of the
operation’s second phase, retaking six large neighborhoods in the southeast. These include the
heavily contested al-Wahda neighborhood, where IS and ISF had been fighting for control of alSalam hospital for weeks. The Iraqi forces have now reached a major highway and are
significantly closer to the Tigris River, which bisects the city. IS fighters have attempted to drive
ISF soldiers out of this recently gained territory, focusing their efforts largely on the al-Mithaq
neighborhood with suicide bombing attacks, but these attacks have had little impact as the ISF
remain firmly in control. During the operational refit, ISF numbers were bolstered by additional
troops and federal police forces redeployed from other areas of the country. In theory, an
increased number of troops would allow the ISF to better hold captured territory and allow the
Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) – the elite fighting unit on the front lines – to focus solely on
pushing inward. Though the CTS still has a tough battle ahead, which will only increase in
difficulty as it pushes toward the city’s center, this helps to relieve the additional burden of
holding captured territory.
The increased number of pro-government Iraqi forces in Mosul also will begin pushing inward
1/7
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
from the northern and southern axes. This has already begun in the south. On Jan. 5, the Iraqi
Federal Police launched an attack on the international airport and Camp Ghazlani in southern
Mosul. In addition to the arrival of reinforcements, the second phase includes the further
embedding of U.S. advisers at lower levels, particularly in Mosul’s northeast. These advisers are
largely U.S. Special Forces tasked with aiding ISF troops and calling in coalition airstrikes.
Though the ISF have firmly refuted claims that these advisers are participating in battle, the
Pentagon has confirmed that some of the 5,000 American troops stationed in Iraq are operating
within Mosul’s city limits. Reports suggest that coalition airstrikes will increase alongside the
increased presence of U.S. advisers in an effort to accelerate the pace of the battle.
2/7
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
(click to enlarge)
The ISF’s successes so far in this second phase triggered a reactionary series of attacks from IS
on Monday, not unlike those seen last October when the battle for Mosul first began. After the
battle resumed on Dec. 29, IS began a series of strikes in Baghdad. Car bombs and explosives
3/7
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
detonated in markets killed at least 60 people from Dec. 29 to Jan. 2. A small contingent of IS
fighters wearing suicide vests entered Samarra, a largely Shiite shrine city 60 miles north of
Baghdad, and attacked two police stations, killing at least seven police officers. A second group
of IS fighters entered a small village near Adhaim – a strategically important town in Diyala
province that runs alongside the Baghdad-Kirkuk highway – where they executed nine Sunni
tribal fighters and killed three additional militiamen with mortars launched from outside the
village.
A third, larger group of IS fighters traveled along the highway leading from Baiji, an important
supply station for the ISF, into Mosul. The goal of this group was likely twofold: to strike at Iraqi
territory outside Mosul and to probe the Iraqi supply line for weaknesses. At least one seniorlevel IS commander was reportedly killed outside Shirqat. His presence indicates that this
mission was important to IS leaders.
This group likely began in Baiji, where they attacked an army barracks, killing four soldiers and
taking mortar fire before fleeing. The group then traveled along the highway, seizing at least
three checkpoints along the way and leaving militants behind to guard them, before ending up
in Shirqat. With fewer numbers than they started with in Baiji, the group was unable to enter the
city and instead fired mortars from outside city limits, killing at least two civilian children before
retreating. The ISF confirmed that the checkpoints had been seized and reported that it had
recaptured at least one.
4/7
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
Civilians walk past Iraqi forces as they flee Mosul's southeastern al-Mithaq neighborhood on Jan. 3, 2017, during an ongoing
military operation against Islamic State fighters. AHMAD MOUSA/AFP/Getty Images
This indicates that supply line disruptions were not IS' main goal, as it did not leave behind
enough fighters to defend the checkpoints. Instead, taking the checkpoints – which were not
heavily fortified according to an IS propaganda video that showed three dead militiamen and
one pickup truck at one checkpoint – was likely part of the effort to probe for weaknesses on the
supply line. The overarching goal of this string of attacks was likely to divert attention and
resources away from Mosul, especially due to the increased redeployment of ISF troops from
provincial areas.
The IS fighters in these scattered attacks did not come from Mosul. They likely were members of
IS sleeper cells in other areas of Iraq, including Anbar province, where IS has kept a low-level
presence since 2014 and has been spotted with trucks and supplies from Palmyra. Because of its
joint command structure, IS is capable of orchestrating attacks like these that are away from the
main battle site. IS’ track record shows that it lashes out in this way when threatened. By
demonstrating a continued ability to strike all over Iraq despite suffering losses in Mosul, IS is
pressuring provincial leaders to recall recently deployed ISF troops by demonstrating their
5/7
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
vulnerability. As IS loses more territory in Mosul, these attacks will continue, spiking when the
ISF make significant gains such as crossing the Tigris River. Monday’s attacks are evidence that
IS remains capable of hitting targets while on the defensive, and that it is in a vulnerable
position in Mosul. However, it is significant that none of these IS contingents had the strength or
numbers to follow up these attacks, hitting their targets quickly and fleeing before the situation
turned into a large-scale fight. Though IS can obviously launch attacks outside of its strongholds,
it may have fewer fighters and resources outside of concentrated areas than previously
assumed.
A week’s respite combined with additional troops and increased coalition airstrikes has given the
Iraqi forces the upper hand in the battle for Mosul for now. Though the battle is far from over, we
will continue to monitor its progress and update readers on the situation on the ground.
Our Geopolitical Model
Learn how we predict the outcomes of changes that significantly impact
global dynamics with our free special report Understanding Our
Geopolitical Model. Click the button below to claim it now!
6/7
Geopolitical Futures
Keeping the future in focus
https://geopoliticalfutures.com
hbspt.cta.load(2632125, 'a536f04b-4d24-4dab-9811-6d1b1335e211', {});
7/7
Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)