for a sustainable future Population Matters Magazine Issue 24 February 2014 China and elsewhere Some of our politicians The North American Buf falo ISSN 2053-0420 (Online) Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Contents Introduction to contributions 3 Magazine China and elsewhere 4 Progress on our policy goals 5 Some of our politicians 6 Friends of the Earth 7 When you’re gone 7 This magazine is printed using vegetable based inks on paper sourced from recycling and responsibly managed forests (FSC Mixed Credit). If you are willing to receive the magazine by email, which reduces our costs and helps the environment, please contact the administrator using the contact details below. Additional copies are available on request: a donation is appreciated. Population Matters does not necessarily endorse contributions nor guarantee their accuracy. PopOffsets8 The ’Depopulation Dividend’ 9 From the West Country 10 …And New Zealand 12 The North American Buffalo 13 Are we really misanthropes? 14 An appreciation of Andrew Ferguson 15 An obituary of Albert A. Bartlett 16 Reviews and letters 17 Promotional items 19 About Population Matters Population Matters is a membership charity working for a global population size that can provide a good standard of living, a healthy environment and environmental sustainability. Our activities comprise education, research and policy promotion. We are funded by our members, donations and grants and receive no funding from official or commercial bodies. We welcome new members. Members receive our publications and can take part in our activities. Active members can apply to become guarantor members and vote at our Annual General Meeting. Membership fee rates are available on our website; we are grateful to those who contribute higher fees, donations or legacies. Population Matters is the working name of the Optimum Population Trust. We are a registered charity no. 1114109 and a company registered in England and Wales no. 3019081. Registered office: 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG 2 for a sustainable future Interested parties are invited to submit, ideally by email, material for inclusion, including articles, reviews and letters. Subjects may include the causes and consequences of, and cures for, unsustainable human population and consumption levels. Submissions should be in Word or equivalent and be accompanied by a brief description of the submitter. Publication titles should be shown in italics and a single space used after periods. Copy deadlines are the end of June and December and a maximum of 700 words per contribution is suggested. Submissions may be edited and the editor’s decision is final. This issue was edited by Norman Pasley, a retired civil engineer with a passion for the natural world, proofread by several volunteers, designed and printed by Printhouse Corporation and distributed by our Administrator, Julie Lewis. If you are interested in helping to produce the magazine, please let us know. Contacting us Population Matters 135-137 Station Road, London, E4 6AG Tel: 020 8123 9116 www.populationmatters.org Chair: Roger Martin [email protected] Chief Executive: Simon Ross [email protected] Administrator/ Membership: Julie Lewis [email protected] Magazine contributions: [email protected] Contacting you If you are a member and do not receive our monthly emailed newsletter and occasional e-alerts but would like to, please contact the administrator. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Introduction to Contributions Norman Pasley, Editor It has been fascinating to read the articles, attempt to understand all the points made, and to improve them. Of course, the best submissions are the least trouble because they cannot be improved! Writers have many viewpoints. From the global perspective, Kostatin Prodanov’s poem reminds us again that the planet is finite and our numbers need to be finite too. Peter Matanle shows us the numerous advantages of reducing population; John Charnock-Wilson has a world view about smaller families and less carbon and Margaret Curtis reminds us to respect all species, using the example of New Zealand’s Kauri Tree. Some contributors have focused on regional or local issues. Susanne Whiting contributes a study on the relationship between human density and buffaloes in the United States; and Simon Gibbons gives us an amusing narrative from Devon (We can do with all the humour we can get!). I comment on population issues surfacing in south east Hampshire while Martin Desvaux and Walter Youngquist celebrate the contributions of, respectively, Andrew Ferguson and Albert A. Bartlett. This issue of Population Matters magazine has attracted a wide range of excellent articles. We have had more items than we could include – thank you for all your submissions. We seek to communicate our point of view to others and Dr William Gisby defines our motivation as reducing human suffering. Other contributors have reviewed books which have inspired them: Roger Martin; Matthew Naylor; Ivan Cicin-Sain and Max Kummerow. Finally, Kostatin Prodanov ends by reminding us of the value of our ‘Population Matters’ bookmark. It’s all in the following pages. Be inspired, show this magazine to friends, and please contribute your viewpoint to future magazines! for a sustainable future 3 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 China and elsewhere Simon Ross, Chief Executive consideration, despite the startling UN projections for population growth in the poorest countries. Even some governments which were previously leading the way on promoting small families have relaxed their policy, like Vietnam; or reversed it entirely, like Iran. With worries over both current living standards and future ageing, sustainability and the environment often comes a poor third, despite the lip service typically paid to it. Like the avowed religious faith of the Mafia, political leaders claim to be committed to our common future without letting this get in the way of their day to day activities. In this challenging environment, Population Matters is one of the few groups raising population systematically with governments and other nongovernmental organizations in the fields of resource security, environmental protection, development, health and human rights. China’s policy on family size is popularly known in the west as a “one child policy”. In fact, there have always been exemptions for rural areas, minority groups and so on, and the one child limit only applies to one third of the population. The current fertility rate is 1.7 children per woman, higher than that of some neighbouring countries, though lower than the UK. One can surely understand the particular concern of the Chinese government with population and why the policy is widely accepted within the country. Within the living memory of many, millions of their fellow citizens died in famines. As China develops, it is gradually relaxing the policy; notably in the recent decision to allow couples not otherwise exempt to have two children where one partner is an only child. While Population Matters only endorses voluntary policies with regard to family size (which have contributed to significant fertility rate reductions in many countries), we welcome China’s awareness of the negative consequences of population growth. This awareness remains rare in global policy circles. There is little appetite amongst governments involved in the Post-2015 Development Agenda to give population due 4 for a sustainable future Lack of progress on population policies is mirrored to some extent in sexual and reproductive health and rights. There is a strong impetus for these rights, allied with women’s rights and health provision, to be part of future development efforts. However, there remains opposition to liberalization from religious and culturally conservative groups at both the European and global level. Turning to the UK, though our population growth is lower than many developing countries, we are an extreme case within Europe. High population density, particularly in southern England, is exacerbated by relatively high fertility and net migration. The public have been quicker than politicians to acknowledge this. Rising numbers faced with limited supply mean that jobs and wage rises are harder to achieve while access to health and education becomes more difficult and the costs of housing, transport and utilities rise. At the same time, green belts are threatened, amenities lost, and travel becomes slower and more stressful. There is a prevailing feeling that future prosperity can no longer be assumed. Politicians are acting on net migration, with some results, but remain reluctant to speak out on population size per se. We are saying to politicians that the best way to stop Britain’s inexorable population growth, and its undesirable consequences, is to call for population stabilization. Without this context, specific policies are vulnerable to opposition from vested and particular interests. We are being heard increasingly by the media and those interest groups and educational establishments who invite us to speak. This will surely lead to the change of mood to which politicians will eventually have to respond. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Progress on our policy goals Simon Ross, Chief Executive Population Matters has developed a number of policy goals which it is calling on governments and others to implement. These goals are set out in full on our website. This article reviews the progress being made towards their achievement. Universal user-led access to the full range of family planning services. In the UK, teenage pregnancy rates are continuing to fall, though they are still high compared with other European countries. The impact of transferring responsibility for public health, including sexual health, from the NHS to local authorities remains uncertain, but concerns have been raised by those in primary care. We are planning to engage with local authorities on this. More generally, the continuing high rate of terminations shows that the UK has a long way to go to achieve effective contraceptive use. One important factor is the low prevalence in the UK of use of more reliable long acting reversible contraceptives. Outside the UK, the UN Security Council has called recently for aid in conflict and post-conflict settings to include family planning. The Family Planning 2020 process is resulting in more money and support being promised for family planning in developing countries, though it is far from being sufficient. Unfortunately, some developing countries are not delivering on their commitments. Some developed countries who did not participate in the process are actually reducing their family planning aid due to economic problems. Even the UK, a leader in the field, allocates only a small proportion of its aid to family planning, even though population growth in the poorest countries drastically limits the effectiveness of aid, as shown in a recent paper sponsored by Population Matters. We are promoting population awareness and family planning through the Post-2015 Development Agenda and by lobbying international conferences, governments and other campaign groups. Sex and relationships education for young people There is abundant evidence that good quality sex education can both reduce the level of unplanned pregnancies and improve sexual health. The new UK National Curriculum (from 2014) published in September 2013 presents a mixed picture on sex education. Whilst the subject of puberty is included in science, teachers are discouraged from explaining ‘how reproduction occurs’ and about hormones. We have lobbied government and joined with other groups to campaign for better sex education. Sex education campaigners in the Sex Education Forum, with our support, are now developing improved materials independently of government. Encouragement for individuals to make responsible decisions on family size Promoting smaller families is still mainly limited to Population Matters, other population concern groups and governments in some developing countries. We are using the media to promote the benefits of smaller families and are developing approaches for use in schools. We welcome the acknowledgement by Friends of the Earth of the population factor. An end to subsidies of larger families, except in cases of proven need Family subsidies in the UK are being chipped away at by various government measures, such as: the withdrawal of child benefit from higher rate taxpayers; the decision not to increase child benefit in line with inflation; the reduction in the maximum income for entitlement to child tax credit, and; the introduction of the benefit cap. However, none of these changes are explicitly related to family size. We are asking the government to generally limit subsidies to the first two children in each household, whilst continuing to support families in need. This is in order to send a clear message that having a smaller family is better for society. Our recommended policy is now being echoed by some politicians. An end to discrimination against women and equal access for women to education, decision-making and resources In the UK, women are under-represented in positions of authority and earn less than average. They also suffer from violence from men and cultural stereotyping (We have supported the End Page 3 campaign). Internationally, the campaign against child marriage, notably by the campaign alliance Girls not Brides, of which we are a member, is gathering strength. Support for women’s rights is also a key point for discussion within the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Balanced migration flows — no more in for a sustainable future 5 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 than out — for countries that consume unsustainably A reduction over the last couple of years in net migration to the UK has stalled recently with a slight rise in the latest figures. While the government is continuing to increase migration restrictions, the effectiveness of the implementation of existing laws has been criticised. We are continuing to highlight the social and environmental consequences of the current and projected increases in the population of the UK. Due consideration of the interaction of population size and government policies Population size is increasingly a matter for discussion in the UK and other countries. Increased infrastructure spending and a rising cost of living are to a large extent consequences of continued population growth. While an appreciation of these points have resulted in some action to limit migration, the UK and many other governments have not publicly addressed the bigger picture of future population outcomes and their implications. Some of our politicians are talking about population Norman Pasley, Editor The choice is either building Welbourne or filling in the green gaps in Fareham between the motorway and the Solent. There is no ‘do-nothing’ option – the population keeps rising. In November, the Leader of Fareham Borough Council was quoted as confirming that Welbourne is needed. Cllr Woodward mentioned various issues: the need for new affordable homes; Fareham’s rising population; growth in the local economy attracting new workers who need homes; existing residents trading up to larger homes; and our ageing population. Between 1951 and 2011, Fareham’s numbers have more than doubled from 43,000 to 112,000. If the same growth rate continues into the future, Fareham’s population will double again by about 2061 - to 224,000. Has anyone thought about the consequences of such growth? There is great concern in Fareham about plans for a new town called Welbourne to be built on farmland north of the M27 motorway. The debate is giving rise to many letters in the local paper, The News, from irate residents who don’t want it. 6 for a sustainable future In December, The News interviewed the Leader of Portsmouth City Council. Under the headline ‘Leader warns about uncertainty brought by population boom’, Cllr Vernon-Jackson provided population data supplied by the Office for National Statistics. “It’s a national issue and the government will have to work out how we are going to cope if it happens,” Cllr Vernon-Jackson said. In my view, he’s right about government getting involved. “If it happens”? It is happening - quietly, out of sight, every day, everywhere. Portsmouth’s population is expected to rise by 9,000 people by 2021. Almost entirely surrounded by water, the additional people can only be accommodated by constructing higher buildings in the city, thus increasing population density, or by building elsewhere. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 A sum of £5m has been allocated for additional school places in Portsmouth to 2021. The article didn’t mention the additional costs for: college places; social services; affordable housing; GP and hospital services; more and larger supermarkets; and relieving road and rail congestion. Have these costs been estimated? Who will pay? Won’t we need higher local taxes and higher utility, food and transport prices? The News article also states that the other six districts in south east Hampshire: Fareham, Chichester, East Hampshire, Winchester, Havant, and Gosport could have an extra 46,000 people by 2021. That’s an increase of nearly seven percent. But I think we need to look farther into the future to see the true population growth picture - say to 2061 when today’s 17-year-olds will reach 65. The present population of Portsmouth, and the six districts above, is 882,000. If this grew by seven percent per decade, by 2061 the population would reach 1,228,000. The extra 346,000 new people would need about 150,000 homes built on perhaps 6,000 hectares of land. At what cost in taxes, natural resources, and loss of countryside, and so on? I welcome these Councillors talking about population. If Population Matters Local Groups around Britain can continue to write to their local newspapers, and reveal similar population stories to those in Fareham and Portsmouth, we may winkle more politicians out of the shadows. In my view, it’s high time national and local government found their voice and became outspoken about this most serious problem. Starting today, they need to work in partnership with the people to do the right thing - plan for growth reduction. Today’s young people have the most to gain by enjoying a less crowded and less damaged planet. A friend of mine sent me this: ‘With increasing concerns about overpopulation, climate change and environmental degradation, a few of the passengers and crew are becoming increasingly concerned, but the winners are on the bridge and this ship will take some turning’. It’s high time all the passengers and crew signalled the bridge to turn the ship! Friends of the Earth have change of heart When you’re gone Norman Pasley, Editor In August 2013, Friends of the Earth published a briefing, Global population, consumption and rights. The briefing states ‘it is necessary to address both consumption and growing population’ though it notes that the fertility rate is now below replacement rate in some countries. What are FoE doing about it? ‘In addition to seeking a peak and decline in global population at or around 2050, we actively campaign on consumption issues such as fossil fuels, resource use and meat. Population growth will be considered alongside other trends as we seek to identify the key interventions needed for wellbeing in our Big Ideas Change the World project.’ That fact that population has been acknowledged as important is welcome. Perhaps we can work together more closely to get our shared message across to everyone else? Simon Ross, Chief Executive It comes to all of us. Many of us like to leave a legacy of some kind, a feeling that we have done what we can to leave the world a better place. I suppose that’s what we are all trying to do in Population Matters. One thing is for sure, we won’t solve the imbalance between human consumption and sustainable resources any time soon. This organization is in it for the long term. That’s where you can help. Despite inheritance tax, at 40%, many people can be reluctant to give away too much while they are alive. You might need it. After you pass, you have no such worries. You can safely leave your estate to your friends and relatives, good causes, or anything else. Leaving money to charity can reduce inheritance tax on your estate. So, do please think about including Population Matters in your will, as a number of members, including the chair and I, have, and give us a sustainable future. If you have left us a gift in your will, do please write to me and tell me what motivated you. Thank you for your support. Free wills month (UK only) starts 3rd March. http://freewillsmonth.org.uk/ for a sustainable future 7 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 PopOffsets – we’re all in this together John Charnock-Wilson, Managing Director of PopOffsets contraception? When Sir Michael Parkinson had his vasectomy 40 years ago, he described it as “the most beautiful thing a man can do for a woman”. World Vasectomy Day took place on 18th October 2013. It was launched at the Royal Institution in Adelaide, Australia and some 200 doctors in over two dozen countries performed over 1,000 vasectomies on the day, with 15 procedures broadcast live from the RIA itself. We provided financial support to Jonathan and his team. We very much hope that WVD becomes an annual event, growing from strength to strength, and we look forward to supporting it in the future. PopOffsets is based on a simple concept: that absent human beings, and their descendants, do not contribute to climate change or consume the Earth’s dwindling resources. Our aim is to help women to control their fertility so that they can decide when and how many children to have. Those children they want to have then grow up to have the best life chances their family and society can provide. We support programmes providing contraception and family planning, and sexual and reproductive health and education, in a variety of developed and developing countries. Having given funds to African and UK-based programmes in 2013, we are presently evaluating bids from US family planning organisations. Our latest grantee, US-based documentary film maker Jonathan Stack, contacted us about his plans for a World Vasectomy Day. As he said, we help to empower women to control their fertility: let the other 50% of humanity share the responsibility! Why should it be only women who have to worry about 8 for a sustainable future Meanwhile, we are always on the lookout for innovative family planning projects. One proposal we are evaluating is to fund a “backpack” nurse in rural northern Kenya. Unmet demand for family planning services is high in Kenya: 36% of women either do not have access to family planning, or cannot afford it. This lack of access is much higher in rural areas and small towns than in the cities. There are many unwanted pregnancies, and abortions conducted by untrained attendants are common, with over 400,000 being performed each year. The nurse we are considering supporting would bring contraception and education to an estimated 7,500 women a year. Our promotional and research work continue in parallel with our fund-raising and funding activities. We initiated a relationship with Lancaster University Management School, where a post-graduate student completed PopOffsets-commissioned research. We are keen to receive voluntary support from PM members with expertise in marketing and promotion, website design and management, as well as related activities, who could spare a few hours a month. We are delighted to report a surge of both interest and income in the last couple of months of 2013, with both offsetting donations and generous Standing Order and one-off gifts, and are most grateful for this support. While we are limited in the number of projects we can afford to fund, we welcome suggestions for worthwhile projects from members and supporters of Population Matters, to help us towards our goal of “smaller families, less carbon”. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Towards a Definition of the ‘Depopulation Dividend’ services provided by other countries, or natural capital. To become sustainable, they must either reduce their numbers or their resource consumption by respectively 86%, 84% and 57%. The more they do the former, the less they need do the latter. Most developed countries are already ecologically overshot, and thus face the same choice. Peter Matanle and Roger Martin Dr. Peter Matanle is Senior Lecturer at the University of Sheffield’s School of East Asian Studies. Roger Martin is the Chair of Population Matters. Countries with falling populations are exclusively wealthy. Several are so concerned about their ageing populations that they are introducing pro-natalist policies, offering incentives to increase their birth rates. Yet they ignore the possibility that age-imbalance is a temporary stage of the demographic transition towards a new, lower equilibrium, as well as the numerous potential advantages of a reducing population. This is what we mean by a ‘depopulation dividend’ (See: Peter Matanle’s article in Prospect magazine, 7 October 20131), a concept which might include some or all of the following: Environment •Improving bio-physical sustainability. Japan, Korea and Germany are 8th, 9th and 37th on the Overshoot Index (based on 2012 Blue Planet Award-winning Global Footprint Network data). They are thus dependent on renewable ecological •CO2 emissions may reduce, and slow climate change; similarly with atmospheric and other pollutants which cause thousands of premature deaths. There may be less pressure on infrastructure and competition for land use. •Bio-diversity conservation may become easier with more land being returned to habitat for wildlife, increasing national resilience. There may be opportunities for protecting gardens, urban green spaces, playing fields and local amenities from development pressures. •The potential for converting space and infrastructure may translate into expanded environmental opportunities and deliver more liveable cities. Urban overcrowding may be reduced and green spaces expanded, while new urban functions – such as robotics, off-grid microgeneration, and urban agriculture – are developed. Economy and Quality of Life •Maintaining economic well-being in an ageing and depopulating society means increasing productivity and expanding employment take-up among the under-employed and older people. Increased demand for labour will push up wages and encourage skill development and technological innovation. •Under depopulation and a flat-lining GDP (assuming stable resource consumption) translates into rising per capita GDP and a more wealthy society, and increases the potential for transition into a sustainable steady-state economy •Average levels of debt might be reduced, with a greater proportion of people at the asset accumulation phase of their life (later adulthood) and fewer in the heavily indebted phase (earlier adulthood), so that society at large has a high savings rate, and domestic capital is readily available for reinvestment. for a sustainable future 9 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 •Ageing and depopulation present a need for, and opportunities to, prioritise feelings of subjective well-being alongside maintaining the economy (See the new ‘Happiness League’ launched in June 2013 in Japan2). •Care for older people can be provided by the ‘fit old’ and technological, infrastructural and social innovation. The increased costs can be offset by reducing overall spending in education and training, while maintaining or even increasing, per capita investment in the young. •The return of real inheritance may present opportunities, as sufficient homes and public infrastructure are gifted inter-generationally, to reduce private and public debt through the savings accrued. •Reduced population density will provide opportunities for a radical reconfiguration of public and private living space, allowing for larger homes and greater community connectedness, and expanded locations for formal and informal socio-cultural interactions. Conclusion • Achieving the benefits that depopulation has the potential to deliver is by no means certain. Humanity has an unerring capacity for wasting its opportunities and resources. Technologies require ever-increasing energy inputs, and much needs to be done to expand the educational contribution to converting our economies and societies into sustainable places for enjoying happy, productive and fulfilled lives. There is much work to be done to reap the benefits from a ‘depopulation dividend’. The above is merely the beginning of what might be achieved over the long term. Nevertheless, we need to take the opportunity of a ‘depopulation dividend’ while we can. References: 1. Matanle, P. (2013) Why the 2020 Olympics Won’t Solve Japan’s Problems, Prospect, 7 October. Available at: http:// www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/2020-olympics-japansproblems/#.UnIZ4ZROrIY. 2. ISHES (2013) Municipalities Across Japan Establish ‘Happiness League’, Institute for Studies in Happiness, Economy and Society (ISHES) website, 28 October, Available at: http://ishes.org/en/ happy_news/2013/hpy_id001115.html. Population Observations from the West Country Simon Gibbons, whose storytelling is complemented by his degree in zoology Back in 1969 I had the good fortune to be sent with the rest of the school sixth form to a forum on ‘World population’. My ‘good fortune’ lay, not in the fact that I was interested in the subject, but because it was being held at the High School for Girls. 10 for a sustainable future Rather ironically back then, I made no connection between the subject matter of the forum and my keen interest in the fairer sex sitting all around me. Nonetheless, I can still vividly recall the pyramid shaped graphs showing the distribution of population age in the world and their inescapable implication. I left the forum profoundly thoughtful. Since then, the subject matter has become the taboo subject of the century. Not so much the elephant in the room, but more a Tyrannosaurus Rex. Now, no news bulletin goes past without mention of energy running out, millions lacking good nutrition, climate change, war and disease, etc. but never once will you hear anyone Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 mention the fact that the underlying cause of it all is that there’s simply too many people on this floating blue planet. The figures are simply overwhelming. Let’s face it, who can picture billions of people? To put it in some sort of manageable perspective, the population of Exeter is about 117,000 people. As I write, the world population is increasing by TWO Exeters a day. Yes that’s right, two a day. Or, if you want the figure, 85,000,000 people a year. Back in my university days, I read about an experiment where some eccentric ‘student’ had put a couple of mice in a deep enamel bath with six inches of sawdust in the bottom. He gave them unlimited amounts of food and water and waited to see what would happen. The mice bred and within a few months there were hundreds of mice in the bath. Despite still being given all the food and water they could consume, it was found that the population number eventually levelled off. The mice still bred avidly but now, due to the stress caused by them all living on top of one another (in some cases literally!), the mortality rate rose to match the birth rate. Mice killed each other, mothers ate their offspring, while many of them developed cancerous growths or got sick in some other way. Many appeared to go mad and show extreme forms of behaviour and some just lay down and died. One way or another, nature had balanced out. It was, by anyone’s reckoning, an inhumane experiment, but to this day I can’t see a busy city street or commuters on a tube without recalling it. On a more positive note, if you drive from Topsham to Exmouth, you pass the George and Dragon Pub. If you were to turn left just after the pub towards Clyst St George you pass a line of magnificent chestnut trees on your right. If you pass them in the spring you will see that they flower alternately red and white. You may be wondering what this has got to do with any of the above. But I think it has, and in a very profound way. Every time I pass them, particularly when they are in flower, I think of the people that took the trouble to plant them in that alternating row. The point about it is that they were never going to live to see those magnificent trees in all their glory, simply because people’s lives are short compared to the life of broadleaved trees. They must have known this and yet they still acquired the saplings, measured the distances, dug the holes and planted them out, not for themselves, but for the people who were going to come after them. It was a farsighted thing to do. The comparative brevity of a person’s life is, I think, perhaps the main reason why there is so little concern about what’s coming down the track. (And make no mistake, it is coming.) Even I can see the logic for just shrugging your shoulders and taking the view, ‘Well there’s nothing I can do about it, and, anyway, I’m not going to be around for it’. But if you think about it, it’s an appalling legacy to bequeath to future generations. At the very least, we should all face the truth and tell our children about it (Why didn’t my mum and dad tell me that there was a Tyrannosaurus in the living room?). We could talk about it amongst ourselves and stop being distracted by the bombardment of symptoms that blind our eyes to the underlying cause. Who knows, a major miracle might occur and our politicians might actually think further ahead than the next election, rather like the people who planted the chestnut trees. We have certainly come a long way since we started chipping flint tools, but looking at modern man now, I feel surrounded by an ever expanding ocean of new people. Is our future to be more like an enamel bath seething with sick mice, or a line of flowering Chestnut trees? I know which one I’d go for. for a sustainable future 11 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 All species must have respect from us - thoughts on a visit to New Zealand Margaret Curtis The Kauri tree is New Zealand’s largest and most famous native tree. It grows in the subtropical northern region of the country. The largest Kauri today is 4.4 m in diameter; the oldest is estimated to be 2000 years old. Kauri forest has a characteristic dense luxuriant undergrowth of small trees, shrubs, ferns, mosses and lichens. Because this tree loses its side branches as it grows, the trunks grow straight and tall. Imagine the awe and delight of the impoverished settlers as they 12 for a sustainable future arrived in New Zealand in the 19th century. With great ingenuity, these enormous trees were cut down and shipped abroad in their thousands. Profits were made, and the forests were stripped of their Kauri trees. Nowadays, the Kauri tree is protected. A few trees over 500 years old, are still growing, gazed upon and admired by thousands of tourists. Saplings are being planted, but they will take many years to mature, and the beauty of the mature Kauri forests has gone. Is this collapse in numbers an indication of what will happen to all species? I hope not. I hope that the rescue of the Kauri will continue. But there will have to be sacrifices and respect from us. We will have to limit our greed and domination of this earth, so all species may be allowed a chance to survive. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Population size and density alone do not tell us enough about environmental impact - The story of the North American Buffalo Suzanne Whiting To illustrate this, let us look at an example for the impact of changes in regional human density on biodiversity. In the 16th century, tens of millions of buffaloes roamed the North American plains. By 1890, all but a few hundred had been both hunted down and deprived of their native habitat through the ploughing, farming and fencing activities of the rapidly expanding population of European settlers. These activities rapidly changed the character of the country from native grassland and abundant wild life to one of vast grain fields unsuited to wildlife, with adverse consequences for grassland biodiversity. But years of drought in the 1920s and 30s, as well as soil depletion and erosion, led people to abandon their farms. Threequarters of Plains counties have seen population falls since 1930, even though the US population has tripled over the same period. Susanne Whiting is a professional translator with a Masters degree in Conservation Science and has a keen interest in demographics and their impact on biodiversity. The world is experiencing an enormous loss of biodiversity, which undermines not only the environment itself, but also the ultimate well-being of humans. Direct drivers of this loss are fragmentation, degradation and loss of habitat, climate change, overconsumption, exploitation, invasive species and pollution. All of these are inextricably linked to and exacerbated by human population growth. However, the relationship between population growth and biodiversity loss is not simple and causal but varies with different demographic attributes. The decline of traditional agricultural land and the retreat of humans are seen by some as an opportunity to restore the Plains to their former natural state by reintroducing buffaloes and replanting prairie grass. Scientists Frank and Deborah Popper have been promoting the idea of an ecologically and economically sustainable use of the Plains in the form of a ‘Buffalo Commons’. Successfully so, it seems: “The total number of buffalo on US and Canadian private and public lands approaches 400,000” they wrote in 2004, “a remarkable figure for a large species that nearly went extinct less than a century ago“. As for economic viability, the Poppers see new uses for the land, centred on conservation, ecotourism, bison meat marketing and luxury hunting enterprises. Buffalo are not the only species on the up – the Plains now also host substantial populations of white-tailed deer, waterfowl, teals and coyotes, to name but a few. However, the drivers behind this re-wilding process are not population size or density per se, but changes in rural population density. North Dakota, for example, has had a fairly stable, low population size and density since 1920 (3.4 - 3.8 people/km²). for a sustainable future 13 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Crucially, however, the proportion of the rural population within the human population as a whole has decreased continually from 86 percent in 1920 to 44 percent in 2000, while buffalo numbers have increased from near extinction at the turn of the century to roughly 31,000 (Fig. 1 and 2). In neighbouring Minnesota, the overall human population almost doubled over the same period (density 23.8/km²), while the proportion of rural inhabitants shrunk from 56 to 32 percent. Buffalo herds in Minnesota have increased to 12,300 farmed animals plus several thousand state- and privately-owned animals. Percentage of rural population in North Dakota from 1850 to 2000 100 Freese C.H., Aune K.E., Boyd D.P., Derr J.N., Forrest S,C, Gates C.C., Gogan P.J., Grassel S.M., Halbert N.D., Kunkel K., Redford K.H., (2007) Second chance for the plains bison, Biological Conservation, 136(1), 175-184, FWS - US Fish & Wildlife Service (2008) Time line of the American bison [online] Nesheim D.A. (2004) Who wants a buffalo? South dakota fenced herds and experiments in management, 1901-1952, Thesis University of Nebraska, [online] Available from: <http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ historydiss/10> Martin, G., (2001) Where the buffalo roam again. San Francisco Chronicle North Dakota Buffalo Association 80 Data for figures: 70 • Data for 1920: New York Times (1924) A Census of Buffaloes, 3/2/1924; Find Buffalo increasing 3/3/1924, quoted in Nesheim (2004) 60 50 40 • Data for 1935: Derr J. (2006) The Ultimate genetic Survivor, The Ecological Future of the North Americal Bison, [online] Available from: <http://www.wcs.org/media/file/GENETICS.Derr.pdf> 30 20 10 00 90 20 19 80 19 70 60 19 50 19 40 19 30 19 19 20 19 10 00 19 19 18 90 0 Figure 1 • Data for 1999: Sell R.S., Bangsund D.A. & Leistritz F.L. (1999) Economic Contribution of the Bison Industry to the North Dakota Economy, Agricultural Economics Department, North Dakota State University, Fargo [online], Available from: <http://www.ag.ndsu. nodak.edu/carringt/bison/ impact.htm> • Data for 2002: Hartwig and North Dakota Buffalo Association Number of buffoloes in North Dakota from 1850 to 2002 35000 30000 number of buffaloes References: US Census Bureau 90 25000 20000 10000 20 00 19 90 19 80 19 70 19 60 19 50 19 40 19 30 19 20 19 10 19 00 0 18 90 • U.S. Census Bureau Are We Really Misanthropes? Dr William Gisby 15000 5000 Figure 2 Regarding rural exodus, a similar trend is evident worldwide: people move from rural areas to urban centres in search of better economic and social conditions. Today, over half of the world’s population are thought to live in urban areas. These “rural exodus effects” are just one of many complex factors which have to be taken into account in assessing the way in which humans interact with their environment and how the environment responds to changes in human populations. 14 This interaction is dynamically determined not only by growth and subsequent density, but also by regional distribution, consumption, human activities, migration patterns, affluence, age structure, and environmental awareness, all of which vary from nation to nation. for a sustainable future Dr Gisby is a semi-retired university tutor, who specialises in ethics (Personal viewpoint). Those of us who support the aims of Population Matters are highly likely to find that those with a different agenda accuse us of misanthropy. What they tend to mean is that we have a general hatred of, mistrust towards, or disdain for, our own species. They accuse us of not liking the human race, which is why they think that we want to see less of it. This is an unfortunate misreading of our position because it wrongly identifies our core motive for seeking a sustainable level of population. It undeservedly paints us as ill-intentioned villains, when we should be applauded for our philanthropy. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 To support this claim, if we adopt the view that philanthropy means a general love for, and concern about, human kind in general, then as philanthropists we are highly likely to want what’s best for people. A reasonable extension of this point is that the core aim of a philanthropist will be to reduce human suffering. Now, if reducing suffering is our aim, we should seek to align ourselves with a philosophical school of thought known as Negative Utilitarianism. Negative Utilitarians believe that the single most effective way for a person to avoid suffering is for that person not to come into existence. This is a form of anti-natalism, the idea that being born is a bad thing, since birth is our entry point into a life in which we will always be at risk of suffering. An appreciation of Andrew Ferguson Martin Desvaux Martin Desvaux is a retired physicist, longstanding member and past board member of Population Matters. Shortly after I joined the Optimum Population Trust (OPT - our original and registered name) in 2004, Rosamund McDougall, one of the vice chairs, encouraged me to contact Andrew Ferguson, the editor of the OPT Journal. She suggested that we would have common interests relating to energy, power generation and usage, as well as to resource conservation, and to how all these affected the sustainability of human populations. Andrew had been an airline pilot until his retirement. He explained to me that watching the globe from 30,000 feet brought home to him just how crowded the planet had become. Many Population Matters members will be familiar with Andrew through his editorship of the OPT Journal. I quickly discovered that he was more than a compiler and editor. In April 2002 the 33-page issue featured 16 articles, six of which were by him. The following issue contained 40 pages and thereafter the issue size settled down to 28-32 pages. Andrew had an impressive list of academics on his world-wide mailing list. Albert Bartlett [recently deceased] of Colorado University, James Duguid, Walter Youngquist (Geologist and author of What clearly follows from this is that the practice of birth control is to be embraced since this directly prevents the coming into being of new people, and if these (potential) new people aren’t created they can’t suffer (or inflict suffering on others). So, in calling for a responsible approach to human procreation, supporters of Population Matters are very clearly advocating a measure that is philanthropic since it proactively reduces human suffering in the most effective way possible. Our critics are consequently wrong to label us as misanthropic. They merely reveal their own misunderstanding. Readers interested in exploring these ideas further may like to read David Benatar’s Better Never To Have Been and Peter Singer’s Applied Ethics, where these concepts are tackled much more rigorously. Geodestinies), William Stanton, John Nunn, Ted Trainer, David Pimentel, and many more, contributed to OPT’s pages. A large part of his in-depth reviews covered books and essays on aspects of the growth of human population, and the consequences for our finite planet to meet its ever-increasing energy demands. His great strengths were: a) reviewing the works of many of the significant authors in the fields of ecology, energy and demographic balance, and; b) slaying by calculation the non-sequiturs and downright fallacies propounded by those who maintained that the earth can supply all our needs indefinitely, and that there is no need to worr y about limiting population growth. His contributions to the Journal included over views and critical reviews of books on demography, renewable energy and ecological footprints, as well as his own analyses of the effectiveness of wind energy and other renewables. He backed up his critiques with in-depth calculations. Several of his essays dissected the ineffectiveness of renewables (hydro-electric power, wind power, wave power and solar) as a replacement for fossil fuels and, in particular, because of the low capacity factor due to the contrariness of wind, the inadequacy of that particular source. With Andrew’s well-earned retirement from editing and contributing to the OPT Journal, Population Matters will lose a unique and highly regarded volunteer who has acted as a technical and intellectual glue to keep all of us who are deeply concerned with the population problem briefed and up to date on the integral energy issues. Through him, the OPT Journal has exposed many a red herring as well as disseminated useful facts and analyses to strengthen arguments supporting the need for sensible and sustainable population levels. for a sustainable future 15 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 The OPT Journal was always a good read. One of its important side effects was that it could make you angry, heightening the realisation that the only way out of humankind’s current dilemma is, somehow, to get politicians to wake up to the fact An obituary of Albert A. Bartlett 1923-2013 Walter Youngquist Dr. Walter Youngquist is a professor emeritus of geology at the University of Oregon and an eminent authority on energy issues. Dr. Albert A. Bartlett, Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado, passed away at his home in Boulder, Colorado on September 7, 2013, shortly after his 90th birthday. 16 for a sustainable future that overpopulation is the key problem. Solve that, and the rest will follow. Thank you, Andrew, for all your vigilant, critical and well-informed efforts. You will be sorely missed. Through his lectures and writings, and most notably in his celebrated presentation of ‘Arithmetic, Population and Energy’, Dr. Bartlett pointed out that the growth of human population and demands on the Earth’s limited resources by even small growth percentages rapidly escalate into very large and unsustainable numbers. This lecture was presented more than 1,700 times to such diverse audiences in the United States as U.S. Congressmen, corporate executives, school classes, university students, professors and military groups, including the U.S. Air Force Academy at Colorado Springs, Colorado. He also presented it in several other countries. Bartlett recognized that most people do not understand the ramifications of exponential growth and began his lecture with the statement: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Although urged by many to incorporate his ideas into a book, he never did so. However, the University of Nebraska did gather many of his writings in a book entitled ‘The Essential Exponential! For the Future of our Planet’. His lecture was also eventually published as a video for wide distribution by the University of Colorado library. Dr. Bartlett was especially concerned about the popularly employed expression “sustainable growth”, widely endorsed by Chambers of Commerce to justify current economic practices. He stated that the term “sustainable growth” is an oxymoron, and emphasized the need to stop population growth in a famous summary statement: “Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavour on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally or globally?” He also took on the commonly expressed soothing expression made by land and building developers of “smart growth”, stating that “smart growth” and “dumb growth” both had the same result, for continued growth of anything in material terms is unsustainable. “Growth” is still at the heart of nearly all political agendas and is seized upon as the cure-all for stagnating economies, growing welfare problems, and unemployment. In a recent meeting of the G-20, the assemblage of the world’s most industrialized nations, the summary statement of recommendations mentioned growth nine times and made no mention of population and its demands on Earth’s finite resources. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Dr. Bartlett’s work and influence will extend far beyond his lifetime. The logic of his simple mathematical and common sense approach to the most important problems facing mankind will survive, and inevitably, will become apparent even to the world’s political and economic leaders. Albert A. Bartlett – a gentle man with a giant intellect. His passing is a great loss to all concerned about the future of the Earth, and its inhabitants. Editor – Dr Bartlett’s video Arithmetic, Population and Energy, is available on YouTube. Review of The World We Made by Jonathon Porritt Roger Martin Roger Martin is the Chair of Population Matters I strongly recommend this new book by our patron Jonathon Porritt, ‘The World We Made’. It’s a retrospective review from 2050 of the first half of our century; it is optimistic, presenting a challenge to the habitual gloom of many of us. The basic scenario is that things go downhill so far and fast from now on that, following the Great Famine of 2025, Governments, business and individuals are forced by riots and the ‘Enough!’ movement into the radical reforms needed to achieve a sustainable society. It’s strong on population, of course, but it is also a wide ranging anthology of policy changes that environmentalists have long proposed, several of them new to me. They include: ending tax havens and perverse subsidies; an international financial transactions tax and carbon tax; the rise of co-operatives and ‘Benefit Corporations’ replacing today’s transnationals; a ‘cap and prosper’ scheme for non-renewables; giving full value to natural ecosystem services, so reforesting many upland areas and ‘de-engineering the Mississippi’; replacing GDP with Bhutan-style Gross National Happiness i.e. quality of life rather than quantity of stuff; reuse rather than recycling; eating less meat and so on. The great religions help, adopting a common set of values based on “Enough, live simply, respect the Earth”; though sardonically, Pope Francis’ attempt to reverse ‘Humanae Vitae’ is defeated by Vatican obstruction. The book is also a compendium of emerging technologies that might prove transformative, though the problems of scale, and their energy implications, are glossed over. Jonathon comes down against nuclear power, and in favour of solar, bio-fuels, and selective GM, among many others. Above all, it is immensely readable, with a short and copiously illustrated chapter on each issue. Narrated from the point of view of its hypothetical and fictional ‘author’, imagined as an idealistic teacher and a former ‘Earth Corps’ volunteer born in 2000, it is written in a chatty style. It’s an excellent antidote to the temptation just to shout “We’re all doomed!” Review of Mill and Paternalism by Gregory Claeys Matthew Nayler Matthew Nayler is a retired City analyst, with an interest in economic histor y and industrial archaeology. John Stuart Mill was the intellectual colossus of his day, his prolific output including leading works on logic, economics and political theory. Nowadays, Mill is mostly remembered for On Liberty. Two genres of Millite works can be identified. The first considers what Mill might have made of various government interventions in our daily lives. The second uses Mill’s 33-volume Collected Works to trace his evolving opinions and intellectual debts to contemporary ‘greats’, and the influence on Mill of his mistress for twenty years (and wife for seven more), the esteemed Harriet, and his precocious ‘mid-life’ crisis when he realised there might be more to life than institutional perfection. Mill and Paternalism is firmly in this second genre, broadening the discussion beyond On Liberty to detail Mill’s Malthusianism. The book jacket’s puff claims that overpopulation was “the problem which most agitated Mill”. As Claeys demonstrates, a wider reading of Mill shows his belief that we have a duty to society not to harm it through overpopulation, hence “no unlimited right of procreation existed”. However, “Mill left no road open but persuasion to attain these goals”, hoping that, by education, example and persuasion, the past’s aristocratic paternalism towards the poor would be replaced by a democratic paternalism towards equality in the future whereby “Population restraint involved the conscious assumption by the working classes as well as women generally of collective control over their own destiny”. for a sustainable future 17 Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Claeys has put the Malthus back into Mill and written a book which can crossover from the ‘student’ market to a wider ‘environmental’ readership. For, alongside his Malthusianism, Mill was a knowledgeable amateur botanist, defender of the commons, keen walker, and advocate of wilderness as a place where humans can better discover their true, deeper, selves. Mill’s ideas can be found faintly in many of the better ‘green’ books - Claeys shines a light on them. Review of Handbook for a Sustainable Lifestyle by Christine Rogenes Max Kummerow An interesting exploration for the rest of this century will be how we can live more simply and have less impact, while actually being healthier and happier. This 27-page manual by a young Norwegian, downloadable from the web address http://www. iaccom.org/ outlines personal lifestyle choices for people who want to be kinder to the planet. It’s a brief and practical document, with a happy, fun-loving spirit, which stimulates thinking and action on this crucial topic. The manual covers recycling, re-using, driving less, reducing population growth, electricity usage, food, shopping choices, living a minimal consumption lifestyle and becoming involved as an activist. The mantra she suggests is, “No one can do everything, but everyone can do something”. It is becoming clearer to those who worry about the future that no magic bullet exists, but that two of the most important things are to reduce both population and consumption. This handbook, to its credit, mentions both, although it is mainly concerned with individual consumption. The author also covers the importance of influencing governments and working together internationally. She recommends working through activist organizations (like populationmatters. org) and supporting green policies. She asks readers to submit suggestions. The personal lifestyle changes suggested in this Handbook will help us with our saving the planet project. I hope and expect that this handbook will get wide readership; it’s a good example of what one motivated person can accomplish. 18 for a sustainable future Review of Going with Gabriel by Bryan Islip Ivan Cicin-Sain Are there really too many of us? Are we all trying to grab much more than the planet has to give? Bryan Islip’s second novel is a thought-provoking tale about ex-scientist cum musician Gabriel Nicholson, about his friendships and lovers, but, most of all, about the consequences of a significant and seemingly irreversible process he helped unleash - a cruel but kind intervention affecting everyone on the planet. The subject-matter gets the reader thinking about the consequences of over-population, non-sustainable lifestyles and whether harsh realities necessitate nononsense/harsh solutions. Gabriel, whose character may come across as slightly under-developed, seems to have no long-term objectives apart from hiding and anonymous living, and this may have detracted from the drive and ‘build-up’ in the novel. However, it is certainly a worthwhile read with later chapters offering some real surprises. Population matters Kostadin Prodanov Kostadin Prodanov is a construction manager, and self-defined environmentalist. Population matters It is a simple truth, And every apple tree Bears finite fruit. Mother Nature suffers Without a vote or voice, While more consuming people Offer her no choice. Some say “strength in numbers”, And many do agree, But having fewer people Would surely save the trees. Having many children Will - I must advise, Bring no life fulfilment But sadly, Earth’s demise. Population Matters Magazine - Issue 24 Letter from Gordon Birch and Anne Scholes Fellow member Gordon Birch and his companion Anne Scholes are planning a transcontinental Land Rover trip to study and film population planning and contraceptive provision. They hope to visit France, Turkey, India, Bhutan and China, finishing in Shanghai. Gordon will be describing his project in the next edition of the magazine, but if you would like to discuss it with him, especially if you think you might be able to offer some sponsorship, he or Anne would be happy to hear from you. Gordon can be reached on 0789 089 7639, whilst Anne’s email address is [email protected] Letter from Kostadin Prodanov I want to share an idea with you that may prove worthwhile. It came to me when I returned a book to the local library. It was late afternoon, the library was about to close, and I forgot my Population Matters bookmark, inside the book. On the way home, I reflected on my mistake and decided that this may be successful and unobtrusive way to spread the word. I have more of those bookmarks that I am going to ‘’forget’’ in books that I borrow. A bookmark, circulated within the community in this inconspicuous way, may prove as successful as town centre stands. Editor: Good idea, Kostadin. I have been leaving them on library tables in the hope that many readers and library staff will see them. Like you, I think our bookmarks are our quiet co-workers! Population Matters Festive Season’s Greeting Card Competition 2014 Help us design our official card for the 2014 festive season! How it works 1. Anyone is eligible to take part. 2. Register for the competition by sending an email to [email protected] or by writing to Festive Season Greeting Card Competition, Population Matters, 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG, agreeing to our conditions of entry and using your full name. 3. Produce a design. You can use photographs, drawings or just contribute an idea. 4. You can submit as many designs as you like. 5. If you are using images from somewhere else, please provide full details of the source. 6. The winner or winners will be acknowledged on the card and in the newsletter and will receive a year’s membership of Population Matters or the cash equivalent (£25) a pack of Population Matters promotional items and a certificate. Please say whether you are small, medium, large or extra large for the t-shirt. Once you have completed your design, send it in a second email to [email protected] or by post to Festive Season Greeting Card Competition, Population Matters, 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG with your full name by 31st May 2014. That’s it! For full conditions of entry, see our website. Promotional items See our website for images and to check availability. Promotional pack (one of almost everything) Comprises: one PM pen; one OPT badge; one PM badge; one Attenborough bookmark; one Attenborough card; one of each of our leaflets, one pack of Christmas cards; one self-cling/ window sticker; one set of small stickers; one set of large stickers; and one t-shirt (specify size - S, M, L, XL) - £10 BADGES AND PENS Population Matters plastic pen – 50p; OPT Stop at Two enamel badge – 40p; Population Matters tin badge - 30p; one of each - £1 CARDS AND LEAFLETS Attenborough bookmarks - ten for 50p or fifty for £2; Attenborough pocket cards - free; Attenborough A5 flyer - free; Attenborough A4 folded leaflet free; Santa Claus Christmas Cards pack of ten with envelopes – to clear £1.50 incl. p&p if ordered alone or £1 if part of another order. for a sustainable future 19 STICKERS A4 sheet of 10 large coloured envelope stickers - 70p per sheet; A4 sheet of 24 small envelope stickers for normal mail – 60p per sheet; self-cling/ window stickers – free Posters A4 size - £1; A3 size - £2; A1 size Attenborough £3; Data disc with approx. fifty posters, a selection of Powerpoint slides and academic studies - £3. Customise a poster for your local needs at no extra cost – ask Edmund Davey. Briefing sheets 01 Climate change and population; 02 Desertification and migration; 03 A population-based climate strategy; 04 The sustainability of human populations; 05 What population policy should we have?; 06 Why the UK needs a population policy; 07 Is there a “right” to have children?; 08 The green gains from smaller families; 09 Population, environment, migration; 10 Ethical implications of population growth; 11 Climate change and population – all 10p each or downloadable free from the website. Included in the data disk above. Clothing T-shirts of quality cotton, white with blue print, front: logo and ‘For a sustainable future’; back: ‘A smaller family is a sustainable family’ and website address. Sizes S, M, L or XL – to clear £6 each. Order the T-shirts from Edmund Davey. NEW - Russell cotton/ polyester sweatshirts and Result polyester fleeces with the Population Matters logo embroidered on the left chest. Sweatshirts are available in black or light grey, sizes S (36/38), M (38/40), L (40/42), XL (42/44) and XXL (44/46). The heavyweight full-zip fleeces are available in black, burgundy, forest green or charcoal, sizes S (38), M (41), L (44) and XL (47). Black garments have the logo as blue text on a white disc, others as white text on a blue disc. Sweatshirts are priced at £20 + £3P&P; fleeces at £25 + £3P&P. Please make cheques payable to Population Matters. For further details, and to check current stock availability, please contact Charlie at: [email protected] or tel: 01594 810501. Orders should be sent to Charlie Davies, 5 Trafalgar Mews, Broadwell, Coleford, Gloucestershire GL16 7RZ. ORDERING For deliver y within the UK, add £2 for postage and packing unless other wise stated. 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