Auckland Housing Accord
First Quarterly Report for Third Accord Year
October 2015 to September 2016
Based on:

City-wide building consent data for 3 month period ended 31 December 2015

City-wide new sections data for 3 month period ended 31 December 2015

Development Programme Office consenting activity for 3 month period ended 31 December 2015
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Contents
Executive Summary – city-wide
Executive Summary – SHAs
Meeting Accord Targets
Dwellings
Sections
Special Housing Areas
Development Programme Office (DPO) Masterplanning and
consenting
Land Supply
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Page
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4
6
11
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Executive summary – City wide
• The net number of new sections created and dwellings issued with building consents in the first quarter of Year 3
was 3,902, which is 23% of the 17,000 target
• City-wide results to December 2015 show:
• 9,251 new dwellings issued with building consents to December 2015 is the best in any 12-month period to
December since 2004, over a decade ago
• A 21% increase on the same period of the previous year (up by 1,619 from 7,632 dwellings)
• 4,066 dwellings in multi-unit buildings were issued with building consents in the 12 months to December
2015, up by 1,133 from 2,933 in the same period in the previous year
• The share of multi-unit dwellings is growing, and accounted for 44% of new dwellings issued with building
consents in the 12 months to December 2015.
• 2,718 new dwellings were consented between October to December 2015. If these monthly rates can be
sustained in Accord Year 3 new dwellings consented to September 2016 could exceed 10,000, a level not seen
since 2004.
• The land supply position continues to significantly improve as a result of the special housing area (SHA)
programme
• The supply of “ready to go” greenfield land is 6.5 years (1.5 year over the Auckland Plan minimum target of
5 years) and up from 6.15 at the end of Accord Year 2 with live-zonings of greenfield land at Huapai and
Scott Point boosting supply.
• SHAs are delivering a significant land supply pipeline with 3.9 years of Future Urban Zone land in SHAs over
2 Accord years.
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Executive summary - Special Housing Areas
•
By 31 December 2015, 106 special housing areas had been declared in Auckland in 8 separate tranches with an estimated
final capacity of over 48,400 dwellings once fully developed.
•
Tranche 9, comprising 12 new SHAs and 2 extensions, was announced on 11 February 2016 with an estimated final yield of
nearly 4,300 dwellings.
•
Tranche 10, with 36 new SHAs and 6 extensions to existing SHAs was announced on 7 April 2016, with an estimated yield
in the range of 2700-3400 dwellings, bringing expected yield for all SHAs to around 56,000 dwellings.
•
The number of dwellings issued with building consents continues to accelerate in special housing areas into Accord Year 3
and now exceeds 1,500 with approximately 700 dwellings completed.
•
As well, a significant pipeline of sections and dwellings has been consented in the Development Programme Office (DPO).
At the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 3:
•
266 pre-applications for qualifying development resource consents had been lodged or processed by the DPO for
29,284 dwellings/ sections, up from 230 at the end of Accord Year 2
•
The DPO was progressing 9 plan variations for 9,577 dwellings/ sections at Crows Road, Flat Bush, McLarin Road,
Glenbrook, Hingaia (3 variations), Oraha Road, Oruarangi Road and Redhills
•
5 SHA plan variations had been approved for 9,300 dwellings/sections at Whenuapai Village (2 variations), Wesley
College, Scott Point and Huapai
•
130 qualifying development resource consents were under assessment by the DPO for 2,251 dwellings/ sections
•
276 qualifying development resource consents had been approved (up from 176 at the end of Accord Year 2) for 3,763
dwellings/ sections.
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Cumulative long term dwelling supply forecast: increasing impact of SHAs
Over the next 14 years, over 94,000 new greenfield and brownfield dwellings and sections are known to be in the development pipeline. From 2016 the
SHAs will play a significant role in housing supply. Note: This data includes Tranche 9 SHAs Gazetted after 31 December 2015 and Tranche 10 SHAs
announced on 7 April 2016.
Number of new dwellings that developers are known to be planning
Auckland; 2014–2030; cumulative; calendar years; Auckland Council (Housing Supply Inventory)
All known forecast supply other than
SHAs
Forecast dwelling supply from SHAs
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Meeting Accord targets
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Targets
The Auckland Housing Accord targets are based on the net number of new dwellings
issued with building consents and sections created in Auckland each year.
Auckland Housing Accord
Paragraph 26
“The agreed goals, set out below, include all new dwellings and new sites consented under existing
regulations or through the application of the new tools enabled through this Accord and are based
on new building and subdivision consents in greenfield and brownfield areas.”
• Dwellings
• The number of new dwellings that receive building consent, as recorded in the
monthly building consent data available from Statistics New Zealand.
• Sections
• The number of new residential sections of up to 5,000m2 that are legally created
in the land register, as recorded weekly by Land Information New Zealand.
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Overview
The net number of new sections created and dwellings issued with building consents in Accord Year 1 (11,097) exceeded the target of 9,000 and in
Accord Year 2 (12,709) was 97.8% of the target of 13,000.
For the first quarter of Accord Year 3, the net number of new sections created and dwellings issued with building consents (3,902) is 23% of the year’s
target of 17,000. Cumulatively across Year 1 and 2 of the Accord and the first quarter of Year 3, the total target of dwellings consented and
sections is 26,250. 27,686 have been achieved which is 1436 ahead of schedule.
Net number of new dwellings with building consents and sections created
Auckland; Accord Year 3 October 2015 – September 2016; adjusted for dwelling /section combinations
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Net total Dwellings and Sections in first quarter of Accord Year 3
The number of new dwellings issued with building consents in the first quarter of Accord Year 3 (2,718) and the number of new sections created
(1,617) must each be adjusted for the 433 occasions on which they overlap.
After adjustment there were net 3,902 dwellings issued with building consents and sections created in the quarter, 23% of Accord Year 3 target.
Net number of new dwellings with building consents and sections created*
Auckland; October 2015 – September 2016; adjusted for dwelling/section combinations; Statistics NZ (dwellings); Land Information NZ (sections)
Overlap
* As illustrated in the graph above, the net total adjusts for any overlap between new sections created and the dwellings that are consented on those sections (i.e. it
avoids double-counting). Where a newly created section has a dwelling consented on it, the section and dwelling are counted as one. If more than one dwelling is
consented on the section, then the additional dwellings are also counted.
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Net total Dwellings and Sections – Three Year view
As the Auckland Housing Accord enters its third year it is useful to look at a three year view and the possibilities for achieving the three year target of
39,000 net sections and dwellings.
With 9 months of the Accord to go 27,686 net sections and dwellings had been consented, 71% of the 3-Year target.
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Dwellings
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New dwellings issued with building consents – monthly
In Accord Year 2, October 2014 – September 2015, 8,721 new dwellings were issued with building consents, up from 7,403 in the Accord Year 1.
The medium-term trend line in new dwelling consents remains positive. In the first quarter of Year 3, 2,718 new dwellings were issued with
building consents an average of 906 dwellings per month. If the current trend continues, new dwellings consented in Accord Year 3 could total
10,870 – exceeding Year 2 dwellings by over 2,000.
Number of new dwellings that received building consent
Auckland; October 2012 – December 2015; monthly total; Statistics New Zealand (Infoshare)
Accord Year 2 – 8,721 dwellings
Accord Year 1 – 7,403 dwellings
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New dwellings issued with building consents– long term trends
Accord Year 1 recorded the highest annual total in new dwellings issued with building consents (7,403) since 2006 (7,442).
New dwellings consented in Accord Year 2 (8,721) exceeded the numbers in Accord Year 1 by 1,318.
New dwellings consented in the first quarter of Accord Year 3 (2,718) already account for 31% of the total achieved in Year 2 (8,721), indicating that
dwellings consented in Year 3 could exceed that in Year 2.
Number of new dwellings that received building consent
Auckland; January 2000 – December 2015; monthly total; Statistics New Zealand (Infoshare)
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New dwellings issued with building consents in multi-unit buildings* – monthly
In Accord Year 2, 3,755 new dwellings in multi-unit buildings were issued with building consents – up by 913 from 2,842 in Accord Year 1. This
accounted for 43% of all dwellings, up from 38% in Year 1.
In the first quarter of Accord Year 3, 1,281 dwellings in multi-unit buildings accounted for 47% of all new dwellings consented, indicating the upward
trend in multi-unit living is continuing.
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New dwellings in multi-unit buildings issued with building
consents – long term trends
The total number of dwellings in multi-unit buildings issued with building consents for Accord Year 2 (3,755) was the highest annual total to
September since 2005 (3,783), a decade ago. If the current monthly average was to continue, dwellings in multi-unit buildings issued with
building consents in Accord Year 3 to September 2016 could exceed 5,000, the highest seen since September 2004.
Number of new dwellings in multi-unit buildings that received building consent
Auckland; January 2000 – December 2015; monthly total; Statistics New Zealand (Infoshare)
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Monthly new dwellings issued with building consents - moving average
The monthly average number of all new dwellings issued with building consents over the 12 months to December 2015 (771 per month) is
higher than in any 12-month period since June 2005 (786 per month), but this is still only 72% of the previous peak 12-monthly average of 1,078
in June 2004. The 12-monthly average for dwellings in multi-unit buildings to December 2015 (339) was the highest since July 2005 (342 per
month).
Moving monthly average new dwellings that received building consent in the last 12 months
Auckland; June 1991 – December 2015; Statistics New Zealand (Infoshare)
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Yearly new dwellings issued with building consents
More new dwellings (9,251) were issued with building consents in the 12 months to December 2015 than in any 12 month period to December
since 2004 (12,115).
However, this is still only 76% of the previous peak of 12,182 in December 2002.
New dwellings in multi-unit buildings issued with building consents in the year to December (4,066) was also the highest since 2004 (5,995); over
a decade ago.
Number of new dwellings that received building consent in the previous 12 months
Auckland; December 1992 – December 2015; Statistics New Zealand (Infoshare)
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New dwellings issued with building consents – annual average growth on the
previous year
Since the Accord took effect in October 2013, the annual increase in new dwellings issued with building consents to the same month in the
previous year has averaged 26.5%. This peaked in April 2014 when dwelling consents in the year to April 2014 exceeded dwelling consents in the
year to April 2013 by almost 41%. At the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 3 to December 2015, the annual increase in consented dwellings
over the previous year was 21.2%.
Growth in consented new dwellings compared to the same month in the previous year
Auckland; March 1992 – December 2015: change in the number of consented dwellings; Statistics New Zealand (Infoshare)
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Dwelling sales prices
The Auckland median monthly house price in December 2015 increased to $770,000 from $678,000 in December 2014.
Dwelling prices in Auckland continue to trend upwards, with the average median price for the 12 months to December 2015 increasing to
$734,021 from $621,796 in the previous year.
Median dwelling price
Auckland; January 2002 – December 2015; monthly median and 12-month moving average; Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
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Dwelling sales prices – growth
The monthly annual growth rate in the median sales price for dwellings in Auckland trended downward from November 2013 to a low of 7.9% in
September 2014 at the end of Accord Year 1. In the 12 months to December 2015, the monthly annual growth rate was higher than September
2014 at 13.6% although this was down on highs over 25% at June and September 2015.
Growth in the median sales price compared to the same month in the previous year
Auckland; January 2003 – December 2015; change in the median sales price; Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
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Sections
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New residential sections – monthly
The average monthly number of new residential sections, under 5000m2, created in Accord Year 1 increased from 428 per month in the year
prior to the Accord, to 460 in Accord Year 1.
In Accord Year 2, the monthly average was higher than in Year 1 at 470 sections per month. In the first quarter of Accord Year 3, the monthly
average number of new residential sections was 539, with 825 new sections created in December 2015. This was the highest monthly figure
since the start of the Accord.
Number of new residential section titles created
Auckland; monthly from Oct 2013 to December 2015; new sections < 5,000m2 in areas zoned for residential housing; Land Information New Zealand
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24
Special Housing Areas
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26
Dwelling creation in special housing areas
In Accord Year 1 to September 2014, 429 new residential dwellings were consented in special housing areas.
In Accord Year 2 to September 2015, a further 797 dwellings were consented bringing total dwellings consented in SHAs since the start of the
Accord to 1,226. The first quarter of Accord Year 3 has seen a further 297 new dwellings consented in SHAs, bringing the total to 1,523 dwellings.
(Source RIMU, Auckland Council).
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Dwelling creation in special housing areas
Most new dwellings consented continue to be seen in recognised development areas like Flat Bush* (185-194), Hingaia (87-103), Silverdale (6679) and Hobsonville (Sunderland and parts of Buckley) (291-359). Development is starting to accelerate in emerging development areas such as
Northern Tamaki (143-175), Weymouth (89-109), Otahuhu Coast (49-85), New Lynn (56-64) and Takanini (15-29).
* Numbers indicate new dwellings consented at end of Accord Year 2 and numbers at the end of the first quarter Accord Year 3
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Dwelling completions in Special Housing Areas
From the start of the Accord on 1 October 2013, to the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 3, 1,523 dwellings had been granted
building consent in SHAs. The majority of SHAs are still in the planning process or having civil engineering works and other site
preparations undertaken.
Dwelling construction is underway in 24 of 106 SHAs and approximately 700 dwellings are estimated to have been completed in 19 SHAs.
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Section creation in special housing areas
In Accord Year 1 to September 2014, 638 new residential section titles under 5000m2 were created in special housing areas.
In Accord Year 2 a further 605 sections were created, bringing total sections created in SHAs since the start of the Accord to 1,243. Section
creation in special housing areas has increased nearly six-fold in the first quarter of Year 3 from 50 per month in Year 2 to 291 per month.
(Source RIMU, Auckland Council). This shows the pipeline of new sections flowing from the first batch of SHAs.
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Section creation in special housing areas
Most section creation activity is from subdivisions already in progress at the start of Accord Year 1 in places like Flat Bush, Hingaia and Silverdale.
Section creation aided by the Accord can now be seen in places like the combined Hobsonville SHAs (427), Weymouth (153), New Lynn (80),
Northern Tamaki (76) and Otahuhu Coast (44).
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Special housing areas – expected supply
The 154 special housing areas in Tranches 1-10 are currently expected to supply around 56,000 dwellings or sections over the 3 years of the Accord to
the end of 2016. Data behind Slides 27 and 30 shows that by December 2015 there were 3,640 new dwellings consented and sections created in the
special housing areas. There is a steepening upward trend in activity.
Actual yields may be lower or higher as plan variations and qualifying developments are progressed. Note: This data includes Tranche 9 SHAs Gazetted
after 31 December 2015 and Tranche 10 announced on 7 April 2016.
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Activity in special housing areas
At the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 2 – December 2015 there were good levels of activity occurring in the 106 SHAs in Tranches 1-8
with:
•
24 SHAs having homes being built in them
•
18 SHAs having earthworks and site preparations underway
•
another 64 SHAs in various stages of the planning process.
Note: Data on Tranche 9 and tranche 10 will be included in the second quarter report for Accord Year 3 issued in May 2016.
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Yield expected from SHAs by degree of activity
At the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 3 – December 2015:
•
Developers were building homes in SHAs capable of a final yield of just under 26,000 dwellings over 10-15 years
•
Earthworks and site preparations were underway in SHAs capable of a final yield of over 6,200 dwellings
•
There were lodged or approved qualifying developments resource consents in SHAs capable of yielding over 5,000 sections/ dwellings
•
Pre-applications were underway in SHAs capable of yielding nearly 9,000 sections/ dwellings.
34
DPO Master planning and consenting
35
At the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 3:
•
266 pre-applications had been lodged or processed (up from 230 at the end of Accord Year 2) for 29,546 dwellings/ sections
•
9 Plan variation applications were underway for 9,577 dwellings/ sections at Crows Road, Flat Bush, McLarin Road - Glenbook, Hingaia (3 variations),
Oraha Road, Oruarangi Road, Redhills (Fred Taylor Drive)
•
5 Plan variations had been approved (up from 2 at the end of Accord year 2) for 9,300 dwellings/sections at Whenuapai Village (2 variations),
Wesley College, Huapai Triangle, and Scott Point, Sunderland Precinct, Hobsonville and surrounds
•
130 Qualifying developments were in progress for 2,251 dwellings/ sections
•
276 Qualifying development consents had been approved (up from 176 at the end of Accord Year 2) for 3,763 dwellings/ sections (up from 2,392).
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Land supply
37
Special Housing Area - Establishment
• 106 Special Housing Areas (Tranches 1 – 8) had been gazetted as at 31 December 2015, the end of the first quarter of Accord Year 3.
• Of these 106 SHAs – the bulk of the final yield (68%) will come from 31 greenfield sites, of which 13 are in the Future Urban Zone outside the 2010
Metropolitan Urban Limit (MUL) on land capable of accommodating nearly 24,000 dwellings.
• 75 brownfield locations account for 32% of yield (15,455 dwellings).
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Role of SHAs future greenfield land supply
• At the end of 2016 there were 6.5 years supply of “ready to go” zoned and bulk serviced greenfield land in Auckland, just below the desired
average 7 years supply set by the Auckland Plan.
• Although this supply is being consumed by new development, it is being replaced with Special Housing Areas such as Huapai, Whenuapai and
Scott Point which are now live zoned, have bulk infrastructure and are beginning to develop.
• A further 3.95 years of greenfield supply is being processed through plan variations at places like Flat Bush, Oraha Road, Crows Road and
Redhills to add to the “ready to go” supply and maintain a 7 year average.
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