2. Living in the countryside
2.2 Population and migration
Population and population growth
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce mid-year population estimates every year. When these
data are analysed by the rural and urban area definition 19.1% of England’s population live in rural areas1
(Figure 2.2.1). Approximately half of the rural population live in small towns, and 46% in Villages, hamlets
and isolated dwellings. Sparse areas account for 1.4% of the overall population, or 6.4% of the rural
population.
Figure 2.2.1 Population estimates for rural and urban England, 2008
Area definition
Less sparse
Sparse
Population
Proportion
Village, hamlet and isolated dwellings
4,504,589
8.8%
Town and fringe
4,675,173
9.1%
Urban >10K
41,535,166
80.7%
Village, hamlet and isolated dwellings
375,548
0.7%
Town and fringe
248,223
0.5%
Urban >10K
107,529
0.2%
Rural
9,803,533
19.1%
Urban >10K
41,642,695
80.9%
England
51,446,228
100.0%
Interpretation: This table shows the latest population estimates for England shown by the rural and urban
definition. At a national level 9.8 million people, 19.1% of the population, live in rural areas with the majority
of these (9.2 million people) living in less sparse rural areas. The population of sparse rural areas account
for 1.2% of the national population and 6.4% of the total rural population.
Source: ONS, 2009. Mid 2008 Population Estimates for Lower Super Output Areas in England and Wales by Broad Age Group and Sex.
According to the latest estimates the population of rural areas is growing faster than urban areas (Figure
2.2.2). Growth is fastest in less sparse villages and hamlets. Sparse areas see slower growth, but their
small rural towns are growing at a proportionately greater extent (5.3% growth). It is worth noting that
these statistics are based on estimates and for ease of comparison only 2001 and 2008 estimates have
been considered.
1 The percentage of population in rural/urban areas varies according to which data and classification of rural is used. This figure uses the lowest spatial scale for
which population data were released in 2008 - Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA).
16. I State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside
Figure 2.2.2 Percentage change in population, 2001 to 2008
Less sparse
Village, hamlet and
isolated dwellings
6.1%
Town and fringe
4.7%
Area definition
Urban >10K
3.7%
Sparse
Village, hamlet and
isolated dwellings
3.9%
5.3%
Town and fringe
Urban >10K
3.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Percentage change in population
Interpretation: The fastest average rate of population growth between 2001 and 2008 was in Village,
hamlet and isolated dwellings - Less sparse areas which grew by 6.1%. All other area types had slower
growth with urban areas having the slowest growth, 3.7% in Urban >10K - Less sparse areas and 3.1%
in Urban >10K - Sparse areas.
Source: ONS, 2009. Mid-2001 and Mid-2008 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas in England and Wales by Broad Age Group and Sex.
The population of some areas of the country are growing faster than others and there is no simple story
to explain the pattern (Figure 2.2.3). Many rural areas are losing population (especially some of the more
remote sparse areas) but also some areas in South East England and many coastal areas. Areas such as
Lincolnshire and the Fens have seen some of the fastest growth, as well as some motorway corridors, for
example the M4 and M40. Areas seeing a decline are spread relatively evenly across the country with all
regions seeing a change.
State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside I 17.
2. Living in the countryside
Figure 2.2.3
Percentage change in
population, 2001 to 2008
-63.7 - -0.1
0.0 - 2.1
2.2 - 5.0
5.1 - 10.2
10.3 - 65.9
Boundaries
Interpretation: Yellow areas have seen a loss of population between 2001 and 2008. The areas of
fastest growth are purple followed by red. The pattern is quite complex, but the fastest growth is seen in
parts of Devon, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire and North Yorkshire, amongst other places.
Source: ONS, 2009. Mid-2008 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas.
18. I State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside
Population age profile
The median age of rural England is older than for the country as a whole (44.4 years in rural areas and
38.5 in urban areas in 2006). This is a result both of a larger proportion of older people, but also a smaller
proportion of those in the 16 to 29 age group (Figure 2.2.4). The section on internal migration will show that
much of this is related to out-migration of young people from rural areas. While 20% in urban areas are aged
16 to 29, the figure for rural areas is 13.7%. This is a slightly larger difference than that for people in the state
retirement age category of 60+ (female) and 65+ (male), 18.1% in urban and 23.5% in rural.
Figure 2.2.4 Proportion of people by age group, 2008
Age group as a percentage of total population
100%
90%
23.3%
23.2%
18.1%
18.1%
27.4%
28.7%
27.7%
23.5%
19.1%
80%
21.1%
70%
60%
27.1%
23.6%
24.0%
21.9%
18.7%
22.0%
25.7%
28.4%
50%
40%
21.1%
24.4%
21.9%
19.8%
21.3%
19.1%
17.2%
17.1%
14.2%
14.9%
13.7%
15.8%
16.3%
16.2%
Village, hamlet and
isolated dwellings
Town and fringe
Urban >10K
16.7%
30%
20.0%
13.1%
14.4%
11.7%
20%
10%
17.8%
18.3%
19.0%
Village, hamlet and
isolated dwellings
Town and fringe
Urban >10K
20.0%
18.8%
17.9%
19.0%
18.8%
Rural
Urban >10K
England
0%
Less sparse
Sparse
Area definition
0-15
16-29
30-44
45-64 (Males) 45-59 (Females)
65+ (Males) 60+ (Females)
Interpretation: The age distribution for the whole of England, the right hand column of the chart,
is relatively evenly distributed amongst the five age groups. Less sparse urban areas show an
age distribution that is more biased towards younger people. Sparse rural areas show the ‘oldest’
population distributions, and smaller settlements tend to have older populations.
Source: ONS, 2009. Mid-2008 Population Estimates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas in England and Wales by Broad Age Group and Sex.
The description of rural areas having an ageing population simplifies what is happening. The predominant
age group varies from place to place. Figure 2.2.5 shows which of a set of age groups is most prevalent
(greatest proportion) in an area (but does not imply that that age group is a majority of the population).
The map shows that very few areas have people aged over 75 as the predominant age group (although
parts of the resort towns of Eastbourne, Sidmouth, Morecambe, and Weston Super Mare do), but many
sparse and other more remote areas have 60 to 74 year olds as the main group. 30 to 44 year olds and
45 to 59 year olds tend to predominate in commuter areas in southern England and around the northern
conurbations. Younger people tend to predominate in cities, but also in a small number of more rural areas.
State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside I 19.
2. Living in the countryside
Figure 2.2.5
Predominant age group, 2008
Age group.
0 - 14
15 - 29
30 - 44
45 - 59
60 - 74
75+
Boundaries
Interpretation: Purple areas are where those aged 60 to 74 are the most populous of the age groups
shown in the key. A large area of rural England (especially sparse areas) fall into this category. A pattern
can be seen where urban areas tend to have younger groups predominating, and the further one goes
from major conurbations the older the predominant age group.
Source: ONS, 2009. Mid-2008 Population Estimates for Middle Layer Super Output Areas.
20. I State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside
Internal migration within England
Information from Primary Care Trusts recording address changes for GP registers is used by the ONS
to compile a data set showing estimates of the numbers of moves between local authority areas. It is
recognised that not every move is recorded and ONS recognise that there is some under-reporting,
especially for younger people. Internal migration is the main driver of population change in the most rural
areas (Figure 2.2.6). But in urban areas changes in the balance of births and deaths is a more significant
factor in population change. The other reasons for changes in the estimates include overseas migration and
migration from other parts of the UK plus some allowances for estimation errors.
Figure 2.2.6 Natural population growth and contribution of internal migration, 2007 to 2008
-8,600
23,609
25,962
-3,400
37,391
52,400
56,600
34,038
15,970
18,200
50,600
16,430
27,800
4,303
35,100
2,997
37,300
-475
0
2,775
50,000
39,600
-50,000
-90,000
Changes in population
88,353
100,000
120,447
118,800
150,000
-100,000
-150,000
Rural 80
Rural 50
Significant rural
Other urban
Large urban
Major urban
Area classification
Overall
Natural
Internal migration
Other reasons
Interpretation: The first (left hand) column in each area classification shows the overall population
gain over one year. The second shows the change due to births and deaths (a gain in Major urban, but
a loss in Rural 80 areas). The third shows the gain or loss due to internal migration, and the final column
shows the change due to other reasons including international migration.
Source: ONS, 2008. Mid year population estimates, and ONS, 2008. Internal migration estimates.
Flows of people from the three urban local authority types to the two rural area types plus Significant rural
amounted to 447,000 in 2008 while rural and Significant rural flows to urban areas amounted to 355,000
leading to a net urban to rural flow of 92,000. So the actual flows are two way, with the net gain in the rural
population being a fairly small amount of the total. These statistics are not shown in Figure 2.2.6, but are
derived from the same source data.
Population change estimates for local authority areas show that Major urban areas have generally lost over
100,000 people by migration to other parts of England each year since 2001 (Figure 2.2.7), while the rural
authority types have gained a similar amount between them. Large and Other urban local authority areas
have seen small falls. The 2008 estimates show a further slowing of the trend recorded from 2004. Moves
from Major urban local authorities fell below 100,000 for the first time in 2008. It is difficult to attribute this
slowing to any single factor.
State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside I 21.
Annual gain or loss of population (thousands)
2. Living in the countryside
Figure 2.2.7 Net gains and losses of population due to internal migration, 2001 to 2008
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Rural 80
Rural 50
Significant rural
Other urban
Large urban
Major urban
Interpretation: The top lines (Rural 80, Rural 50 and Significant rural) show that these areas have
consistently seen higher rates of population gain due to internal migration than the more urban areas,
which have all seen losses. There was a ‘peak’ in 2004 since when rates of migration have fallen. 2008
saw the smallest migrations since comparable data was available in 2001.
Source: ONS, 2008. Internal migration estimates.
Mapping people’s moves for all age groups shows an overall flow from Major urban to rural areas.
However, some rural areas in the far north of England and other areas closer to major cities are not
gaining population through internal migration (Figure 2.2.8) – counter-urbanisation has not completely
taken over from rural depopulation. Different age groups show different migratory patterns, as the other
three maps below show. The 16 to 24 age group tend to have a net movement from rural to urban (but
moves to areas such as Cornwall also show up), while the net gains and losses for the 45 to 64 age group
shows a marked pattern of movement from urban and commuter areas closer to major cities towards
more sparsely populated areas. The 25 to 44 year old group are tending to decline in major cities and
increase in rural areas closer to major cities.
22. I State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside
Figure 2.2.8 Net gains and losses through internal migration for different age groups, 2007 to 2008
Balance of
migration
16-24 year olds
Balance of
migration
25-44 year olds
-800 - -300
-3,900 - -100
-299 - -200
-99 - -100
-199 - -100
-101 - 300
-99 - 100
301 - 500
101 - 4,200
501 - 1,400
Balance of
migration
45-64 year olds
Balance of
migration
All ages
-1,800 - -200
-8,300 - -400
-199 - 0
-399 - 100
1 - 100
101 - 400
101 - 300
401 - 700
301 - 900
701 - 1,900
Interpretation: Areas shaded purple have the highest levels of in migration while yellow areas have the
highest levels of out migration. For people aged 16 to 24 there is much more out migration from rural areas to
Major urban areas. For those aged 25 to 44 and 45 to 64 there is out migration from urban areas with people
aged 25 to 44 tending to move to less remote areas than 45 to 64 year olds. The pattern for All ages shows out
migration from Major urban areas towards rural areas.
Source: ONS, 2008. Internal migration estimates.
State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside I 23.
An estimated 10.2% of the population of England have lived at their current address for less than a year
(National Travel Survey data, 2002 to 2006), or just over 5.2 million. In 2008 some 2.4 million people were
recorded as having moved from one local authority to another, as estimated from GP’s records. This
implies that fewer than one half of all moves (46%) involve a change of local authority area. The flows
discussed above add up to net migration from urban areas of 102,000 for 2008, which is 2% of all moves.
Most home moves are short distance. As measured from the centre of one local authority to another, just under
1 million out of 2.25 million, 44% (of those involving a change of District, or about 22% of all) are less than
30kms, while 25% (about 12% of all moves) are over 100km. For urban to rural movements the distances are
somewhat longer with 51% (about 25% of all) being over 50km and 32% (about 16% of all) over 100km 2.
Migration from overseas
National Insurance Number registrations by Overseas nationals (NINOs) are recorded and compiled
into a data set showing registrations in each local authority by the ONS. Since 2004/05 there has been
a large rise in overseas migrants to all areas. While it used to be the case that rural areas received few
such migrants, this changed with central and eastern European migrants settling in rural areas after their
countries’ accession to the European Union. Levels rose rapidly in 2004/05 and 2005/06, but steadied in
2006/07 and have fallen in all areas except Major urban areas in 2007/08 (Figure 2.2.9).
Figure 2.2.9 National Insurance Number Registrations from Overseas (‘NINOs’) per thousand
population, 2002/03 to 2007/08
25
Registrations per 1,000 population
2. Living in the countryside
Distance of moves
20
15
10
5
0
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Year
Rural 80
Rural 50
Significant rural
Other urban
Large urban
Major urban
Interpretation: Major urban areas, represented by the dark blue line, have received proportionately
higher numbers applying for National Insurance numbers from overseas than other area types, with over
20 per 1,000 population in 2007/08. Since 2004/05 there has been a large rise in overseas migrants to all
areas. While it used to be the case that rural areas received few migrants, this changed with a greater
proportion of migrants from accession European Union countries settling in rural areas. Levels rose rapidly
in 2004/05 and 2005/06, but steadied in 2006/07 and have fallen in all areas except Major urban in 2007/08.
Source: DWP, 2008. National Insurance Number Recording System.
2 For more detail and mapping refer to Figure 2.2.12 of the State of the countryside 2008).
24. I State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside
A greater proportion of migrants who settle in rural areas come from ‘accession’ European Union
countries than is the case in urban areas. Rates of migration from accession countries are at a relatively
similar rate for all English local authority types, while migrants from all other origin area types tends to be
higher to more urban areas in England (Figure 2.2.10). This means that 70% of such migrants to Rural 80
areas are from accession countries compared to 31% in Major urban and 43% in Large and 50% in Other
urban areas.
Registrations per 1,000 population
Figure 2.2.10 National Insurance Number Registrations from Overseas (‘NINOs’) per thousand
population by area of origin, 2008
25
20
1.7
1.2
2.0
15
10
5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.2
0.5
3.3
0
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
Rural 80
Rural 50
0.5
0.2
0.8
2.5
5.2
3.8
3.5
3.0
0.5
5.0
0.5
0.2
0.7
2.4
0.8
Significant rural
1.4
1.2
Other urban
Large urban
6.3
3.8
Major urban
Area classification
European Union 15
EU Accession countries
Australasia
Other areas
Asia
Africa
Interpretation: Of the migrants who settle in rural areas, a greater proportion come from European
Union Accession countries than is the case in urban areas. About 70% of such migrants to Rural 50 and
Rural 80 areas are from central and eastern Europe compared to about 31% in Major urban, 43% in Large
and 50% in Other urban areas.
Notes:
(i) European Union 15 refers to the EU member countries prior to the accession of twelve candidate countries in 2004 and 2007 and includes Austria,
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom.
(ii) EU Accession countries refers to overseas nationals from the 12 Accession countries. These are Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, who joined in 2004, and Romania and Bulgaria, who joined in 2007.
Source: DWP, 2008. National Insurance Number Recording System.
Summary points
• The population of rural England has risen faster than urban England between 2001 and 2008. The fastest
growth was in less sparse village, hamlet and isolated dwellings which grew by 6.1%.
• Rural England has a greater proportion of older people than urban England, with 23.5% over state
retirement age compared with 18.1% in urban areas. There are a smaller proportion of younger people –
13.7% in rural areas are aged between 16 and 29 – compared with 20% in urban areas.
• Rates of internal migration slowed in 2008 but there was a net movement of 92,000 people from urban
local authorities to predominantly and Significant rural districts.
• Rates of migration from overseas into all area types (except Major urban) fell during 2007/08.
State of the countryside 2010 I Living in the countryside I 25.