Live case studies in a new course on Statistical Consulting Aila Särkkä and Serik Sagitov Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden [email protected] and [email protected] Abstract. For many of the students graduating from our Department of Mathematical Sciences their job duties (at least to some extent) will require acting as a statistical consultant. However, our existing courses do not provide them with any practical experience of consultation. To remedy this situation we are going to give a new course called “Statistical Consulting” in the autumn 2008, so that our students will have a chance to experience consulting in practice. We have a consulting group at the Department that offers statistical help for researchers within other disciplines and, therefore, we have access to some real world statistical problems through this group. The aim of this pedagogical project is to discuss the possibility of incorporating our ongoing consulting projects into the new course. 1 INTRODUCTION Our students majoring in the subject Mathematical Statistics get very little or no experience of what it is like to work as a practicing statistician. Most of our existing courses are concentrated on a specific statistical method or a family of methods, but usually very little is said about how we come up with exactly this particular method or family of methods in practice. That is why the faculty of the Mathematical Statistics has decided on its annual meeting in 2007 to introduce a new course, Statistical Consulting, for our master students. The authors of this 1 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov report took the initiative of organizing this course and by this time a number of practical steps have been already made. Among other things a course syllabus (see Appendix) has been approved by the responsible committee and the course MSA660 Statistical Consulting has appeared in the GU catalogue for the coming academic year. It is now scheduled for the second half of the fall semester. We have also applied for a Chalmers code so that both GU and Chalmers students can attend the course. This course is thought to be tightly connected to the activities of our consulting group that offers statistical help for researchers outside our own Department. Currently, this group consists of four PhD students and two senior teachers. We plan to involve the students taking the new course to the ongoing consulting projects. Such course arrangement seems to be rather unusual and the main aim of the current pedagogical project is to discuss the possible advantages and dangers of this pedagogical approach. Our core idea is to give the students a chance to face real-world ill-stated statistical problems formulated by a customer who needs qualified help in analyzing her data or even in how she should collect her data in a meaningful way. We believe that the discussion with an actual customer will be a very important part of our course giving the students an opportunity to learn interaction skills essential for the problem to be correctly stated and successfully solved. A proper statement of the problem and possible solutions are then discussed together with a teacher within a group of students, and afterwards the students should perform appropriate analyses on their own. Finally, the problem and the suggested solution are reported and presented. Since we will try to arrange real customers to be involved in the course, we call our approach LIVE case study approach following terminology used for example in Business education. Our report is designed as follows. First, we give an outline of the new course and discuss its importance within the whole menu of our statistical courses. Our pedagogical approach based on live case studies is in many respects similar to the classical case study approach, however there are some crucial differences between these two approaches. In Section 3 we recall the idea of the case study approach, which is a special case of problem based learning, and in Section 4 the differences between the case study approach and our approach are outlined. Our approach is compared to the traditional teaching methods in Section 5, and we conclude with a final remark in Section 6. 2 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov 2 STATISTICAL CONSULTING COURSE 2.1 GENERAL AIMS The main aim of introducing a course on statistical consulting is to give the students an opportunity to see what it is like to work as a statistician. In practice, it is very common that people (customers), who ask for help with their statistical analyses, have difficulties to clearly state their (main) questions. When a statistician asks the customer what was the exact purpose for collecting these data, she may not get a satisfying answer. Therefore, instead of starting by suggesting some appropriate methods for analyzing the data, one should begin by trying to figure out what indeed are the questions of interest. This often comes as a surprise for a newly examined statistician. The aim of the course is to let the students meet with some customers, participate in the conversations from the beginning, and get some hands-on experience of statistician's work. Instead of having a well formulated question, some data and a family of methods to work with, the students would now have to first reformulate the problem in statistical terms, suggest a relevant statistical model, and then choose appropriate methods by using the statistical knowledge they have learned in their earlier courses. The course will be organized in a very different way than our other courses. There will be some general lectures in the beginning of the course but the main emphasis is on participating in ongoing consulting projects managed by our consulting group. Therefore, the course will include many different teaching methods: lecturing, study circle, discussions in groups, report writing and oral presentations of the results. 2.2 OUTLINE OF THE COURSE When designing our course we used as a model a similar course given at the Department of Mathematical Statistics, Stockholm University. We have contacted some students in Stockholm and their feedback about the Statistical Consulting course has been very positive. Students find the course very useful. We decided to follow closely the structure of that course given in Stockholm. 3 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov The new course in Statistical Consulting is intended to activate the statistical knowledge that our students have gained from their earlier courses by solving real world statistical problems. It will include • Lectures on statistical consulting and on some statistical methods that are not usually covered by our existing courses. As the course literature we recommend the books Cabrera & McDougall (2001) and Chatfield (1995) • Guest lecture by a practicing consultant • Consulting projects: students meet with one or more actual customers and work in groups on the raised problems • Teacher supervised and unsupervised discussions within and between groups • Writing and presenting reports. 2.3 NEED FOR THE COURSE We have discussed the need of the course at our department with the faculty and students. Everybody has found organizing such a course to be a good and timely idea. It seems that both teachers and students have realized that there is an important aspect missing in our education, namely how to identify a statistical problem and choose appropriate statistical tools to tackle the problem. We have interviewed several former PhD students who have been part of our consulting group. Many of those, who currently work in the industry, think that consulting was the most useful part of their whole graduate education. Putting together theory and practice is a major challenge in teaching Mathematical Statistics. Some of our courses include projects but students are typically restricted to use the methods they have learned in that particular course. This new course with its consulting projects will try to fill this gap. This course is not really about new statistical methods but rather about how to discuss statistics with people of non-statistical background, and how to formulate statistical questions out of other type of scientific questions. In this course the main emphasis is in understanding the statistical part of a broader scientific problem and in finding an appropriate method from the whole statistical tool box, without being anchored to a specific family of method. 4 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov 2.3 TIMING OF THE COURSE Taplin (2003) discusses the course "Introduction to Statistical consulting" which he successfully taught for several years at Murdoch University. It is an undergraduate course for second year students. Therefore, the timing of his course is very different from ours, since our intension is to offer a statistical consulting course for the Master level students. An early second year course in statistical consulting can of course have some advantages. For example, students will be early attracted to the statistics profession and they may find it easier to choose their future career of either purely academic or more practical nature. Furthermore, the students are given the practical framework of being a statistical consultant in which they can place their future studies of more advanced statistical techniques. Taplin argues that graduate studies may be too late for exposing students to the practical side of statistics. Without a course in statistical consulting the students might have the idea that statisticians typically spend their time making calculations with a computer rather than talking to people and learning about interesting problems. At Murdoch University the consulting course has resulted in a larger number of undergraduate students from a variety of subjects interacting with statistics students. This interaction takes the form of client-statistician, which can leave the non-statistics student with a more positive attitude towards statistics. An obvious disadvantage of having the course early is, however, that students have not had time to study so much statistics. It would be much harder for the students to discuss the problems and suggest appropriate methods if they do not know which methods are available for the type of problem in hand. Also, if the student is to learn a new method in order to solve the problem, a master's level student is more experienced to do that. Therefore, with our pedagogical approach when the whole course is based on actual consulting projects, we rather allocate the course at the master's level. A more systematic approach to educating statistical consultants within a foursemester master’s degree program was described by McCulloch et al (1985). It contains two consulting courses: a pre-consulting course offered in the second semester and the supervised consulting course in the third and fourth semesters. 5 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov 2.4 COURSE EVALUATION Course evaluation is an important but often neglected aspect of the education process. Its importance becomes even more acute for a new course, like ours, especially when earlier untested pedagogical techniques are going to be applied. We think we should try to use every opportunity during the course for gathering feedback from the students to learn how to use the advantages of the live case study approach. With no more than 15 students on the first round of the course it will be possible to seek for direct participation of the students in tuning the routines of this approach to make sure that it indeed facilitates students’ learning. This certainly requires that the teachers manage to build a relaxed atmosphere of cooperation and trust with the students and among the students. We plan to have two evaluation hours in the first round of the course – one in the middle and the other in the end of the course. At the midterm evaluation we would like to ask about the students' general impression about the course so far, as well as pose some more specific questions, like • Are the goals and expected outcomes of the course clear for the students? • Should the organization of live case studies be changed to make them more effective? How? • What kind of mathematical statistical topics should be covered in the second part of the course? • How adequate is the suggested reading material? • How do you find your group assignment and how does the collaboration work in your group? The final evaluation meeting can be devoted to discussing students’ experiences of the course and their suggestions on its improvement for the next round. 3 THE CONVENTIONAL CASE STUDY APPROACH It is very natural to think that an undergraduate course in Mathematical Statistics should be related to applications and therefore, problem-based learning provides a proper framework for teaching basic statistical courses (see e.g. the cited reports by Bolanos and the by Pliego). According to this approach, the students should be 6 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov given cleverly tailored problems which will entice them learning statistics. Typically, students in other disciplines are not so motivated and interested in taking statistics courses because they do not find them relevant to their own subject. Including problems from their own field would definitely increase the students’ interest. Here, we will not talk about problem based learning in general but describe only one subclass of it, namely the case study approach. 3.1 DESCRIPTION Several authors have pointed out that it would be important to bring data analysis skills into the mathematical statistics courses (see e.g. Nolan (2002) and references therein). Nolan and Speed (1999) have included case studies in their course in mathematical statistics. Each case study introduces a scientific question (including some background) and typically contains a data set. (Sometimes, the problem can be to design an experiment in order to answer a specific question.) The students are then supposed to discuss the scientific question, suggest methods in order to answer the question and then perform the analysis they find necessary. The solution to the raised problem is not known for the students. In fact, there can be many possible solutions and ways to analyze the data. The idea behind case studies is to learn mathematical statistics through real problems not the other way round. Therefore, case studies are a form of problem based learning. It feels much more natural to introduce a problem first and then try to find a solution to it, and during this process to learn more about mathematical statistics, rather than first introducing some statistical methods and then giving examples how to use the methods. Unfortunately, the latter is what is usually done. Before the students start to work on a problem, they will discuss the problem with the teacher. Together they will try to suggest alternative ways to go on. Then, the students follow up the suggestions and do the required analysis by using some statistical software. Then, they will write a report, where they introduce the problem, describe the statistical methods they have used and present the results they have obtained. Finally, the report will be presented to the whole class and everybody is welcome and encouraged to discuss the methods and results. 3.2 CHALLENGES FOR THE TEACHER Including a case study in a statistical course is challenging for the teacher. First of all a case study document should consist of several parts which have to be very carefully written. The first part of the document should present a scientific 7 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov problem without any clear hint on which statistical tool is appropriate. This part is handed out to the students to initiate a discussion among students in the class under supervision of the teacher. The second part may contain some missing key information that the students are supposed to figure out during the discussion. Based on this part the students should clearly state the statistical question and choose an appropriate method to address it. When the solution is suggested the student receives the final part of the case study file containing the correct solution(s) of the problem. Case study teaching is much more interactive compared to conventional statistical courses consisting of lectures and exercise sessions. The role of the teacher becomes to ignite students’ discussion of possible solutions and to channel the discussion in the right direction without giving immediately the final answers. Instead of standing in front of the classroom and talking the teacher is more like a support person and advisor for the students. She should help the students to find appropriate approaches without telling them what to do. The idea is not to provide with cookbook analyses but discuss the possible solutions with the students. Since the students are supposed to write down and present their results, the teacher is supposed to help with these skills as well. Furthermore, the reports and presentations have to be evaluated. Then, one has to see that the methods used help to answer the original question and that the report is clearly written. The oral presentation should be pedagogical enough so that the other students can understand what is going on in the project. 3.3 CHALLENGES FOR THE STUDENT The course and the project work will be a challenge for students, too. This study form for a statistical course might feel strange for them. Here the emphasis will be on their own contribution, not on teacher’s lectures. The students will learn something that is not taught in other courses, namely to identify the research problem and to find an appropriate statistical approach to solve it, without concentrating on a particular range of statistical methods. They have to discuss problems that are new and where the solutions are not necessarily obvious. The students will also practice their social skills. They have to actively communicate with other students and teacher since they are working in groups. Finally, the students will improve their writing and presentation skills. One can 8 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov also include peer reviewing of the reports to be part of the examination. Therefore, the students will learn to critically read other groups' work and discuss it with others. 4 LIVE CASE STUDIES In the previous section we described a specific problem based learning method, the case study method. Our approach of including ongoing consulting projects (instead of prepared case studies) as a part of the course is somewhat similar. However, there are some important differences. Case studies are typically used in order to teach particular statistical method. The teacher chooses a case study which is suitable for learning a particular topic. However, the teacher cannot really choose the consulting problems but have to take the ones that are in hand. This is very suitable for the course since it is not about a particular group of statistical methods. The aim of the consulting course is not to learn more statistics (even though this often happens and is of course desirable) but to learn other skills, which include discussing statistical issues with researchers who are not specialists in statistics, formulating research problems on other fields in statistical terms, choosing appropriate statistical models and methods to analyze data, as well as writing and presenting reports. Another important difference between the two approaches is that when we have real consulting problems and the discussion with the researchers, who have given the problem to us, plays a very important role. Often, the first task is to formulate a clear scientific question in statistical terms. If some data are already collected, before starting to work on analyzing the data, we have to know how the data were collected and ask questions relevant to the problem. If there are no data yet, we can help the researchers to design a data sampling procedure in such a way that it will address appropriately the scientific question of interest and the resulting data fulfill the requirements of a mathematical model underlying certain statistical analysis. Typically, the problems faced by our consulting group have come from engineering, medicine and science but also from linguistics and other humanistic fields. Our students (or statisticians in general) cannot be expected to have enough knowledge on all these subjects in order to understand the problems and questions without consulting researchers in the field. A statistician does not have to understand everything about the subject but enough to know the role of key variables. These multi disciplinary discussions are often a new experience for the 9 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov students since they are typically not used to discuss statistics with people who know less about it than they do. They will act as experts now. In addition to some lectures on statistical consulting we will possibly include teaching some statistical methods in the course. Here, the ongoing consulting problems are essential again. We have thought about two ways of using the consulting problems to affect the course content further. The first possibility is to choose a statistical topic beforehand based on the consulting problems we have had in the past. For example, within our recent projects we have often ended up applying logistic regression, which we do not teach in our basic courses. Therefore, the PhD students involved in these projects have had to study the basics of logistic regression by themselves before working on the project. Logistic regression would then be a natural subject for a few lectures. Another possibility would be to wait until all groups have got their projects and see whether there is a need for lectures on some particular subject. Therefore, we would let the consulting projects (and students) decide about the subject of this part of the course. If there is no need for any additional subject, this part can be dropped out (or we can go back to the first scenario and choose for example logistic regression as the subject of some lectures). The idea of letting the consulting problems affect what is taught in the course is a complete opposite to what is done in the conventional case study approach: case studies are chosen because of the subject we want to teach, not the other way round. When working on case studies, students typically work in groups and discuss with the teacher every now and then. In our case, the students will be included in our consulting group. Usually we always try to have (at least) two people meeting a customer for the first time in order to get a better and wider idea of the project and to avoid misunderstandings. Typically, there are one senior teacher and one PhD student. During the course we would invite a group of students, who are taking the course, to these meetings and encourage them to actively participate in the discussion by asking questions. In this way the students will get a large support group around them: other students in the group, two teachers and the researcher(s) from some other field. We are fully aware of possible risks connected with live case studies. Even with a constant inflow of customers to our consulting center there is no guarantee that we will get new requests exactly when we need them for the Statistical Consulting course. However, one may delay the first meeting until the start of the course, but 10 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov then we will need customer’s consent for her case becoming a part of our course. Another danger is that the ongoing project turns out either to be too shallow or too complicated. In the latter case it will require much more time for processing the case than is relevant for the course. However, even in these cases the students would gain some experience on discussing statistical problems and could report what they have learned from these meetings. There can also be a risk that the involved customer will be unsatisfied with provided services because their question has been treated as a live case study. She may experience that it takes more time than necessary to get final answers. On the other hand, the customer could be pleased with all kind of questions students ask feeling that her case received close attention. We would like to point out that it is the teachers' responsibility to make sure that the case is solved in a proper way so that the quality of the cases solved by the students of the course would be as good as the quality of any other cases solved within the consulting group. Despite these dangers we are willing to give a try to this approach. We hope to learn much from the first experience and develop our course judging from this experience. We can imagine that in the future a mixed strategy will be adopted when live case studies are complemented with prepared case studies (which can be based on the previous years live case-studies). 5 OUR COURSE VERSUS TRADITIONAL COURSES Most of our courses consist of lectures and exercise sessions, and some of them additionally of a few projects. It has mainly been the teacher who has been speaking and typical interaction between the lecturer and the students is when the lecturer asks simple questions to check if the students follow the flow of the lecture. The pedagogy of the new course will be very different. It will be a constant challenge for the instructors (and students) to broaden the scope of unconventional pedagogical methods like role-plays recently discussed by Taplin (2007). Consulting problems will be an essential part of the course and therefore, lecturing and exercise sessions will play a minor role in the course. There will be some lectures but not in the traditional sense, where only the teacher is talking. Instead, the intention is to have some type of study circles, where the teacher and the students discuss the subject together. 11 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov This course is not about learning more statistics but learning to use statistics in real world problems. The students have to search through the whole statistical tool box in their disposal to pick appropriate methods for the problem in hand. Students may end up learning some statistics, too, if they have a problem, which cannot be solved by the methods the students are familiar with. However, the main aim is to learn to identify scientific problems and formulate them in statistical terms, and to use all statistical knowledge the students have learnt so far. In traditional courses students cannot affect so much the content of the course. In the statistical consulting course they may be offered this possibility. If there is a subject new to the students, the students can ask the teacher to give some introduction to the subject. This is a challenge for the teacher not only because she cannot plan it beforehand but also because the particular subject may be new to him/her as well. At least in theory, there may be several methods unknown to the students that should be applied in order to finish the projects. In this case it may not be possible to introduce all these methods during the course. Instead, the students will have to learn about the methods themselves with the teacher's help. The teacher will point out which family of methods could be suitable, give references to appropriate literature and help the students during the learning process. 6 FINAL REMARK Live case study, as revealed by our Google search, is a well established pedagogical approach in Marketing and other fields of Business education. We give just three references (out of many found on the Internet) in the list below (see 9-11). According to these sources, “a live case study involves students working with an organization to solve some real business problem”. We do not see why the same approach cannot be applied in teaching statistical consulting (which is after all a form of academic business). We would like to conclude with a citation from paper [9] Movement toward more active, experiential learning pedagogies is a trend that has found increasing interest in the last decade. The reasons for this interest include creating a more involving and interesting experience for the student, creating a more memorable experience, and facilitating more effective and durable learning. 12 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are thankful to the participants of the pedagogical course TLC101 for inspiring discussions skillfully moderated by the course leader Michael Christie. We are grateful to Michael Christie and Tom Stehlik for close reading of this report and valuable comments. In particular, Tom suggested reflecting upon evaluation procedure of the course in question. REFERENCES 1. Bolanos E. Problem Based Learning for great statistics learning. http://www.hicstatistics.org/2003StatsProceedings/Gilda%20Bolanos.pdf 2. Burns, Alvin C. (1990) The Live Case Approach. In Guide to Business Gaming and Experiential Learning, James W. Gentry (ed), New York: Nichols/GP Publishing. http://sbaweb.wayne.edu/~absel/bkl/BGcov.pdf 3. Cabrera & McDougall (2001). Statistical Consulting, Springer. 4. Chatfield (1995). Problem solving: A statistician's guide. Chapman & Hall. 5. Elam and Spotts (2004) Achieving Marketing Curriculum Integration: A Live Case Study Approach. Live Journal of Marketing Education, 26, 5065. 6. McCulloch, C.E, Boroto D.R, Meeter, D., Polland, R., and Zahn, D.A. (1985) An expanded approach to educating statistical consultants. The American Statistician, 39, 159-167 7. Nolan, D. (2002). Case studies in the mathematical statistics course, ICOTS6. http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/1/3e1\_ dnol.pdf 8. Nolan, D. & Speed, T.P. (1999). Teaching statistics theory through applications. American Statistician, 53, 370-375. 9. Pliego, G.J. Problem Based Learning and the Teaching of Introductory Statistics. http://l08.cgpublisher.com/proposals/226/index_html 10. Richardson, Neil and Sion Raveed (1980) A Live-Case Program For Teaching Marketing Research. Journal of Marketing Education, 38-42. 13 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov 11. Statistical consulting course at Stockholm University http://www.math.su.se/matstat/foutb/Konsultmetodik2007.pdf 12. Taplin, R. (2003) Teaching statistical consulting before statistical methodology. Aust. N.Z.J. Stat., 45, 141-152. 13. Taplin, R. (2007) Enhancing statistical education by using role-plays of consultations. J.R. Statist. Soc. A,. 170, Part 2, 267-300 (paper with discussion) 14 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov APPENDIX: COURSE SYLLABUS Faculty Board of Science MSA660 Statistical Consulting 7.5 higher education credits Second Cycle This syllabus is the binding document. 1. Confirmation The syllabus was confirmed by the Department of Mathematical Sciences on November 15, 2007 to be valid from the same date. Field of education: Science. Responsible department: Mathematical Sciences. 2. Position in the educational system The course is part of the Master Program in Mathematical Sciences. It is also open for students outside the program who meet the course prerequisites. 3. Entrance qualifications The prerequisite for the course MSA660 Statistical Consulting is the equivalent of the course MSG500 Linear statistical models. 15 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov 4. Course content Students will be exposed to "real life" statistical problems that one can face when working as a statistician. The course will include lectures on statistical consulting as well as on certain statistical methods (related to the projects of a particular year). Consulting problems and/or case studies will be an essential part of the course. Ideally, students will take part in at least one consulting task presented by non-statisticians, who need help with statistics. Students will be required to write reports and make presentations. 5. Learning outcomes Through this course, students learn to identify statistical problems, discuss them with other statisticians as well as with researchers from other disciplines, and suggest solutions to them. By taking part of some consulting tasks or case studies, students will get some hands-on experience on statistical consulting. After having taken the course, one should be able to • • • • discuss statistical issues with researchers who are not specialists in statistics formulate research problems on other fields in statistical terms choose appropriate statistical models and methods to analyze data write and present reports. 6. Required reading List of required reading will be given in a separate list. 7. Assessment Home assignments, discussions. presentations, active participation in group 16 Live cases in statistical consulting –Särkkä and Sagitov 8. Grading scale The grades are Fail (U) and Pass (G). Students who are contractually entitled to ECTS grades should inform the examiner about this no later than one week after the start of the course. Students without such entitlement will not be awarded ECTS grades. Grades will be converted into ECTS terminology according to a standard model approved by the University President. 9. Course evaluation Oral and/or written course evaluation will be performed. The results of the evaluation will be communicated to the students and will serve as a guide for the development of the course. 10. Additional information The language of instruction is English unless all involved are Swedish speakers. 17
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