World Renewable Energy
Outlook 2030-2050
Les énergies renouvelables au service de l’humanité
CNRS – Ademe – Unesco, Paris, 3 octobre 2013
Paolo Frankl
Head, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
CNRS, Paris 3 October 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
Current share of renewables in different
sectors
World total final energy
consumption, 2011 (EJ)
9.0
65.2
83.7
Electricity
Transport
Industry
Buildings
86.2
78.8
Other sectors
100%
Non-OECD solid
biomass
Bioenergy
90%
80%
70%
Other renewables
60%
Non-ren. Waste,
nuclear & others
Natural gas
50%
40%
30%
Oil
20%
10%
Source: IEA Statistics
Coal
0%
Electricity
Transport
Industry
Buildings Other sectors
Note: Electricity consumed in different end-use sectors is not shown here.
© OECD/IEA 2013
Positive mid-term outlook for renewable
electricity
Global renewable electricity production, by technology (TWh)
TWh
IEA 2° C
Scenario 30%
8 000
7 000
25%
6 000
20%
5 000
4 000
15%
3 000
10%
2 000
5%
1 000
0
0%
2006
2008
Hydropower
Of f shore wind
Geothermal
Gas-fired
generation 2016
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Bioenergy
Onshore wind
Solar PV
CSP
Ocean
% Total generation
Source: Medium-Term Renewables Market Report 2013
Nuclear
generation 2016
 Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 40% from 2012 to 2018
 Broadly on track with 2020 IEA 2°C scenario targets
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Renewable power spreading out everywhere
Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW)
Source: Medium-Term Renewables Market Report 2013
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any
territory, city or area.
 Emerging markets more than compensate for slowing growth and volatility
in markets such as Europe and the US
© OECD/IEA 2013
Over the long term, the power
generation mix is set to change
Global electricity generation by source, 2010-2035
TWh 14 000
12 000
Coal
Renewables
10 000
8 000
Gas
6 000
4 000
Nuclear
2 000
Oil
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 New Policies Scenario
Renewables electricity generation overtakes natural gas by 2016 & almost coal by
2035; growth in coal generation in emerging economies outweighs a fall in the OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
Global climate-friendly electricity
mix by 2050
Variables
32%
22%
Renewables
57%
71%
Renewables to provide 57 to 71% of World’s electricity by 2050
in 2 degree scenarios - VRE 22 to 32%
© OECD/IEA 2013
Technology Roadmap:
Wind Power 2013 Update
 Increased ambition for 2050: 15% to 18% of global
electricity generation (vs. 12% in original 2009 roadmap)
 Deployment in line with expectations for land-based wind
 Significant technology
evolution:
 Growth in size, height and
capacity
  Greater capacity factors,
easier access to sites with
lower-speed winds, more
power system-friendly
making grid integration easier
Source: IEA Wind Update Roadmap 2013, forthcoming
© OECD/IEA 2013
Solar heating & cooling can play an
important role in industry and buildings
 World Map
Source: IEA SHC
Roadmap 2012
14% of total hot water and space heating demand
20%
of
Source: Technology Roadmap – Solar Heating &
Cooling
total low-temperature heat demand in industry
17% of total cooling demand
© OECD/IEA 2013
Final energy use for heat in 2050
2°C Scenario
Industry, 2050 (102 EJ)
Buildings, 2050 (124 EJ)
2.8%
12.4%
2.2%
7.1%
10.1%
Coal
21.5%
Coal
33.0%
Oil
Oil
Gas
Gas
Bioenergy
34.1%
38.5%
Bioenergy
Solar thermal
Other renewables
26.3%
12.2%
Solar thermal & other
renewables
Source: Adapted from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
 By 2050, renewables provide almost 50% of heat in buildings
 Biomass is most important renewable energy source in industry
in 2050  solar thermal contributes mainly to low-temperature
heat demand
© OECD/IEA 2013
Long-term prospects for transport biofuels
Source: IEA Biofuels Technology Roadmap 2011
 Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases to 27% in 2050
 Advanced biofuels are the only low-carbon fuel alternative for heavy transport
 Land-use increase limited to a factor 3, thanks to a mix of increased productivity,
use of waste resources and advanced biofuels
© OECD/IEA 2013
Renewables make substantial contribution
in all end-use sectors in 2050
Source: Adapted from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
Total final energy consumption in 2050 in the 2DS
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Electricity
Other renewables
Transport
Biomass & waste
Hydrogen
Industry
Electricity
Buildings
Nuclear
Other sectors
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
 Renewables contribute considerably to TFEC ion different end-use sectors
 either directly, or indirectly through use of renewable electricity
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four Key Policy Ingredients
System
Integration
Non Economic
Barriers
Smart Incentives
Clear Strategy and Targets
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IEA on-going work
 Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (Phase III)
 Major Publication on Economics of Flexibility in January 2014
 RE Heat technologies and policies
 RE Technology roadmaps
 Wind power 2013 Edition
 Solar photovoltaic 2014 Edition
 Solar thermal electricity (CSP) 2014 Edition
 Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014
 Long-term energy scenarios
 WEO 2013 with renewables chapter
 ETP 2014 with solar energy chapter
© OECD/IEA 2013