NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
62
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: ALASKAN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
David McMINN
Independent Scholar
Twin Palms, Blue Knob, NSW 2480, Australia
[email protected]
Abstract: A 9/56 year cycle has been established for various phenomena – financial panics, earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions and Atlantic hurricanes. This paper assessed a possible relationship between 9/56 year cycle and Alaskan
volcanic eruptions. Correlates confirmed that these events fell preferentially in 9/56 year, 27/56 year and 9-18/56 year
grid patterns. The findings offered further support for a strong 9/56 year effect in Alaskan seismology and volcanology.
Keywords: 9/56 year cycle, volcanoes, eruptions, Alaska.
Introduction
9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and
T hemultiples
of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). Events will cluster in these patterns with statistical
significance, a finding that applied to financial panics (McMinn, 1986, 1993), earthquakes (2011a, 2011b,
2014) and Atlantic hurricanes (2011c). The beginnings of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii also exhibited this
effect (McMinn, 2011d), as did world mega eruptions (McMinn, 2012). This paper examined the prospect of
a 9/56 year cycle in the timing of Alaskan volcanic eruptions over recent centuries. Such events were found to
cluster selectively in grids based on 9/56 years, 27/56 years and 9-18/56 years.
The database of the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) was accessed to produce a listing of Alaskan volcanic
eruptions since 1750 (see Appendix 1). All eruptions were included regardless of their intensity. Those entries
considered to be ‘Questionable Eruptions’ were omitted, because of reliability issues. The listing also becomes
increasingly spurious the further back in time one goes. Many early Alaskan events were unobserved or not
recorded, due to low European population levels and the remoteness of many of the volcanoes. The study of
Alaskan volcanoes improved during the 20th century and thus there has been a marked increase in the
frequency of observed Alaskan eruptions. Despite such limitations, the AVO data was still used, because it
was the best available option.
The 56 year sequences have been numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993), with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985
being designated as Sequence 01; 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. McMinn (Appendix 2,
2002) gave the full numbering. Calendar years have been adopted in the tables, because the AVO data was
presented in this manner.
The 9/56 Year Grid
Alaskan eruptions fall selectively in one sector of the complete 9/56 year grid as shown in Table 1. Of the 234
events listed by the AVO, some 98 fall in this arrangement, whereas about 76 could have been expected by
chance (significant p < .01).
Table 1
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: ALASKAN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Calendar Years
Sq
25
Sq
34
Sq
43
Sq
52
Sq
05
Sq
14
Sq
23
Sq
32
1756
1765
1774
1783
1821
1839
1933
*
1830
**
1886
*
1942
*
1792
**
1848
*
1904
*
1960
**
1785
1794
1803
1841
1850
1859
1812
**
1868
1897
1906
***
1915
*
1924
*
1877
1895
1951
****
Sq
41
1745
1801
1857
1913
1969
*
63
NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
1953
1962
****
**
*
2018
2009
***
Continued…….
Sq
Sq
50
03
1971
*
1980
***
1989
****
1998
*
***
2007
**
Sq
12
Sq
21
Sq
30
Sq
39
1743
1799
Sq
48
1752
1808
1855
1864
1911
*
1967
*
1920
1754
1763
1772
1781
1790
1810
1819
1837
1866
1875
1828
*
1884
1846
*
1902
*
1958
**
2014
***
1893
*
1949
**
2005
***
2016
Sq
01
1761
1817
**
1873
**
1929
****
1985
*
1940
1931
1976
***
***
1987
1996
****
**
**
The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years
Each asterisk represented an Alaskan volcano which experienced an eruptive event during a given year.
Source of Raw Data: Alaska Volcano Observatory.
1922
***
1978
***
Sq
10
1770
1826
*
1882
1938
**
1994
**
From the layout in Table 1, two 27/56 year grids may be derived, which contained numerous Alaskan
eruptions (see Table 2).
Table 2
27/56 YEAR CYCLES: ALASKAN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Post 1750
Alaska Volcano Observatory
Calendar Years
Grid A
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
52
23
50
21
Sq
25
1756
1812
**
1868
+ 27
+ 27
1783
1839
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
1895
+ 27
1951
****
***
2007
**
+ 27
1785
+ 27
1841
+ 27
1897
+ 27
1924
*
+ 27
1953
****
*
2009
***
+ 27
1980
***
+ 27
1754
1810
1866
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
1922
***
1978
***
+ 27
+ 27
1781
1837
1893
*
1949
**
2005
***
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
Sq
48
1752
1808
1864
1920
1976
***
Grid B
Sq
34
Sq
05
Sq
32
1765
+ 27
1794
+ 27
1821
+ 27
1850
+ 27
1877
+ 27
1906
***
+ 27
1933
*
+ 27
1962
**
2018
+ 27
1989
****
+ 27
1792
**
1848
*
1904
*
1960
**
2016
Sq
03
Sq
30
1763
+ 27
1790
+ 27
+ 27
1819
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
1875
+ 27
+ 27
1931
***
1987
****
**
+ 27
1846
*
1902
*
1958
**
2014
***
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
+ 27
Sq
01
1761
1817
**
1873
**
1929
****
1985
*
NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
64
NB: Each asterisk represented an Alaskan volcano which experienced an eruptive event in a given year.
Source of Raw Data: Alaska Volcano Observatory.
Grid A in Table 2 was displaced by 9 years relative to Grid B (ie: Grid A plus 9 years gave Grid B). Thus
they may be combined to yield a pattern with 9 - 18 - 9 - 18 - 9 - 18….. year intervals on the horizontal and
56 year intervals on the vertical (denoted as a 9-18/56 year cycle). Table 3 comprised 21% of the complete
9/56 year grid yet it accounted for 34% of all Alaskan eruptions (significant p < 10-5).
Table 3
9-18/56 YEAR CYCLE: ALASKAN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Post 1750
Alaska Volcano Observatory
Calendar Years
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
34
52
05
23
1756
+9
1765
+ 18
1783
+9
Sq
25
1785
+9
1794
+ 18
1812
**
1868
+9
1821
+ 18
1839
+9
1841
+9
1850
+ 18
+9
1877
+ 18
1895
+9
1897
+9
1906
***
+ 18
1924
*
+9
1933
*
+ 18
+9
+ 18
1980
***
+9
1989
****
+ 18
1951
****
***
2007
**
+9
1953
1962
****
**
*
+9
2018
2009
***
Continued………
Sq
Sq
50
03
Sq
21
1754
+9
1763
+ 18
1781
+9
1790
+ 18
Sq
48
1752
1808
1810
+9
1819
+ 18
1837
+9
+ 18
1864
+9
1866
+9
1875
+ 18
1893
*
1949
**
2005
***
+9
1846
*
1902
*
1958
**
2014
***
+ 18
1920
+9
+9
+9
+ 18
+9
+ 18
+9
1931
1976
***
***
+9
+9
1987
****
**
Each asterisk represented an Alaskan volcano which experienced an eruptive event in a given year.
Source of Raw Data: Alaska Volcano Observatory.
1922
***
1978
***
+9
Sq
30
+9
Sq
32
1792
**
1848
*
1904
*
1960
**
+ 18
+ 18
+ 18
+ 18
2016
Sq
01
1761
1817
**
1873
**
1929
****
1985
*
Alaskan eruptions were least likely to occur in the 9/56 year grid presented in Table 4. Some 38 events
appeared in this pattern, compared with an expected 59 (significant p < .01).
Sq
44
Sq
53
Table 4
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: LOWEST FREQUENCY OF ALASKAN ERUPTIONS
Calendar Years
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
06
15
24
33
42
51
04
13
22
31
1748
1757
1766
1775
1784
1793
1804
1813
1822
1831
1840
1849
1860
1869
1878
1925
1934
1896
*
1952
*
1905
1916
1887
*
1943
*
1961
1746
1755
1764
1773
1782
1802
*
1858
1811
1820
1829
1838
1867
*
1923
1876
1885
1932
**
1988
*
1941
1894
*
1950
***
2006
***
1914
**
1970
1979
*
1997
***
1791
*
1847
1903
*
1959
Sq
40
1744
1800
Sq
49
1753
1809
1856
1865
*
1921
1912
**
1968
1977
**
65
NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
1972 1981 1990 1999 2008 2017
*
**
***
***
The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.
Each asterisk represented an Alaskan volcano which experienced an eruption during a given year.
Source of Raw Data: Alaska Volcano Observatory.
In the 100 years to 1898, only one eruption took place between Sq 29 and Sq 43 of the complete 9/56 year
grid (see Appendix 2). This was unusual because about 10 could have been expected by chance (significant
p < .01).
Discussion and Conclusions
From the assessment, Alaskan eruptions were found to cluster within 9/56 year patterns. This favourable
outcome contributed to the growing body of evidence supporting a 9/56 year effect in the timing of
earthquakes and eruptions. Three key patterns applied to Alaskan volcanoes – a 9/56 year grid (see Table 1),
the 27/56 year grids (see Table 2) and a 9-18/56 year grid (see Table 3). Various other arrangements were
considered but significance could not be achieved. Alaskan episodes with the highest Volcano Explosivity
Index (VEI) were also appraised for possible trends, but without success.
Curiously, 54/56 year and 9-45/56 year grids were very important in the timing of large Alaskan quakes (M
> 7.8) (McMinn, 2014), whereas Alaskan volcanic eruptions were most likely to show up in 27/56 year and
9-18/56 year layouts. 27 was half of 54 and thus there may be some relationship between the timing of
Alaskan earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This hypothesis was examined in some detail, but supportive
evidence was lacking. Various 56 year sequences (Sqs 21, 23, 25, 30, 32 & 34) were shared between the 918/56 year grid for Alaskan eruptions (see Table 3) and the 9-45/56 year grid for Alaskan earthquakes (see
Appendix 3). Alas nothing more can be stated.
The patterns based on 56 years and multiples of 9 years are very interesting, but the correlates cannot explain
how the 9/56 year effect functions in the timing of critical phenomena. Moon Sun tidal effects were strongly
indicated (McMinn, 2011a), but how these forces triggered major earthquakes and eruptions remained the
great unknown. Even so, there may be emerging a simple theory based on Moon-Sun tidal harmonics, which
reduces the complexity of eruptive and seismic cycles to a few basic principles. Such a paradigm shift would
offer the potential to make accurate forecasts of earthquakes and eruptions years in advance. Unfortunately,
this is unlikely to be achieved anytime soon.
Acknowledgements: I would like to thank the editor Dong Choi and the reviewers for their input in the publishing of
this paper. As always their contribution was most appreciated. I am also very indebted to the Alaskan Volcano
Observatory for producing the extensive database upon which this paper is based. Such historic catalogues are
extremely valuable in the study of earthquake and eruption cycles over recent centuries.
References
Alaska Volcano Observatory. Database.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/eruptsearchresults.php?fromsearch=1&yearstart=1760&yearend=2014&year=&volcano=-1
McMinn, D., 1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of
Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug. 25-29.
McMinn, D., 1994. Mob Psychology & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analysts Association Newsletter,
p. 28. March.
McMinn, D., 1993. US Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter,
p. 21-25. September.
McMinn, D., 2004. Market Timing By The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing, 153p.
McMinn, D., 2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 58,
p. 29-42.
McMinn, D., 2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59,
p. 88-104.
McMinn, D., 2011c. 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p. 105-111.
McMinn, D., 2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics
Newsletter, no. 60, p. 9-37.
McMinn, D., 2012. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter,
no. 64, p. 7-18.
McMinn, D., 2014. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Japan, Kamchatka and Alaska. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, v. 2,
no. 1, p. 1-20.
NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
66
Appendix 1
ALASKAN VOLCANOES AND THEIR ERUPTIVE HISTORY SINCE 1760
ALASKAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY
SHISHALDIN (25)
1824 1826 1842 1898 1903 1910 1922 1929 1932 1946 1951 1953 1954 1955 1963 1967 1975 1976 1978 1979 1986 1995 1997
2004 2014
PAVLOF (32)
1817 1844 1846 1880 1886 1892 1894 1901 1906 1914 1915 1917 1922 1924 1929 1936 1950 1951 1953 1958 1960 1966 1973
1975 1981 1983 1986 1990 1996 2007 2013 2014
AKUTAN (30)
1848 1852 1865 1867 1883 1887 1892 1896 1907 1908 1911 1929 1931 1946 1948 1949 1951 1962 1972 1976 1978 1980 1982
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
CLEVELAND (21)
1828 1893 1932 1944 1951 1953 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1994 1997 2001 2005 2006 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014
MAKUSHIN (10)
1769 1802 1883 1907 1926 1938 1944 1951 1980 1995
VENIAMINOF (16)
1830 1892 1939 1944 1956 1983 1984 1993 1995 2002 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2013
OKMOK (14)
1817 1824 1899 1931 1938 1943 1945 1958 1960 1981 1983 1986 1997 2008
GARELOI (10)
1791 1792 1873 1922 1929 1952 1980 1982 1987 1989
GREAT SITKIN (8)
1767 1792 1933 1945 1949 1950 1951 1974
AUGUSTINE (9)
1812 1883 1935 1944 1963 1971 1976 1986 2005
BOGOSLOF (8)
1796 1806 1883 1906 1907 1909 1926 1992
KANAGA (6)
1786 1904 1906 1942 1994 2012
AMUKTA (4)
ANIAKCHAK
ATKA
1786 1963 1987 1996
1931
1812
FOURPEAKED
KASATOCHI
KATMAI
2006
2008
1912
KISKA (4)
KOROVIN (3)
NOVARUPTA
1962 1964 1969 1990
1973 1987 1998
1912
REDOUBT (4)
SEGUAM (6)
SEMISOPOCHNOI (2)
1902 1966 1989 2009
1786 1891 1892 1977 1992 1993
1873 1987
SPURR (2)
TANAGA
TRIDENT (2)
1953 1992
1914
1950 1953
UKINREK MAARS
WESTDAHL (7)
YUNASKA (3)
1977
1795 1796 1827 1951 1964 1978 1991
1824 1830 1937
Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory.
Sq
52
Sq
05
Appendix 2
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: ALASKAN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS SINCE 1760
Alaska Volcano Observatory
Calendar Years
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
14
23
32
41
50
03
12
21
30
39
1765
1774
1783
1812
**
1868
1821
1839
1924
*
1933
*
1830
**
1886
*
1942
*
1877
1980
1989 1998
***
****
*
Continued………
Sq
Sq
Sq
1895
1951
****
***
2007
**
Sq
1792
**
1848
*
1904
*
1960
**
1763
1772
1781
1790
1799
1808
1828
*
1884
1837
1846
*
1902
*
1958
**
2014
***
1855
1864
1911
*
1967
*
1920
1976
***
Sq
01
1761
1817
**
1873
**
1929
****
1985
*
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
1801
1810
1819
1857
1866
1875
1913
1931
***
1987
****
**
1940
1969
*
1922
***
1978
***
1996
**
1893
*
1949
**
2005
***
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
48
2016
Sq
67
NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
10
19
28
37
55
08
17
26
35
44
53
1759
1768
1777
1815
1833
1909
*
1965
1918
1927
1974
*
1983
***
1824
***
1880
*
1936
*
1992
****
1795
*
1851
1804
1806
*
1862
1786
***
1842
*
1898
*
1954
*
2010
Sq
51
Sq
04
Sq
13
Sq
22
Sq
31
1764
1773
1782
1811
1820
1829
1838
1867
*
1923
1876
1885
1932
**
1941
1961 1970
1952
*
2017
2008
***
Continued………
Sq
Sq
Sq
38
47
56
1979
*
1988
*
Sq
09
1760
1770
1779
1788
1797
1826
*
1882
1835
1844
*
1900
1853
1891
*
1947
1938
1956
**
*
2003 2012
1994
**
*
Continued………
Sq
Sq
Sq
24
33
42
1784
1793
1840
1849
1896
*
1905
1802
*
1858
1914
**
1798
1807
1816
1769
*
1825
1854
1863
1872
1881
46
1813
06
1766
1822
15
1775
1831
1860
1869
1878
1907
***
1963
***
1916
1925
1934
1972
*
1981
**
1990
***
1887
*
1943
*
1999
Sq
40
Sq
49
1791
*
1847
1800
1809
Sq
02
1762
1818
Sq
20
1780
1836
Sq
29
1789
1845
1856
1874
1894
*
1950
***
1903
*
1959
1912
**
1968
1865
*
1921
1986
****
**
1892
****
1948
*
2004
**
1901
*
1957
1977
**
Sq
11
1771
1827
*
1883
****
1939
*
1995
***
1997
***
2006
***
2015
Sq
18
Sq
27
Sq
36
Sq
45
Sq
54
Sq
16
1776
Sq
25
1785
Sq
34
1794
Sq
43
1803
1778
1787
1805
1814
1832
1841
1850
1859
1834
1843
1861
1870
1879
1888
1897
1890
1899
*
1796
**
1852
*
1908
*
Sq
07
1767
*
1823
1917
*
1926
**
1935
*
1944
****
1953
****
*
2009
***
1906
***
1962
**
1915
*
1971
*
1871
1889
1945
**
2001
*
1930
2013
***
1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000
2018
1910
*
*
**
*
**
**
**
**
1966
1975 1984 1993 2002 2011
**
**
**
**
*
*
The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years
Each asterisk represented an Alaskan volcano which experienced an eruption during a given year.
Eruptive events highlighted in blue occurred during the 100 years to 1898. Events in red happened from 1760 to
1798, as well as from 1899 to 2014.
Source of Raw Data: Alaska Volcano Observatory.
NCGT Journal, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014. www.ncgt.org
Sq 31
1903
+9
0602
1959
+9
2015
Continued……….
Sq 36
+9
1908
1964
0328
+9
1965
0204
+9
2020
Continued……….
Sq 32
68
Appendix 3
9-45/56 YEAR CYCLE:
MAJOR QUAKES IN ALASKA Post 1895 M ≥ 7.8
Year beginning March 1
Sq 40
Sq 29
Sq 38
1912
+ 45
1968
+ 45
1901
1957
0309
2013
Sq 25
+9
+9
Sq 34
1897
+9
+ 45
1953
+9
1906
0817
1962
+ 45
2009
+9
2018
Sq 21
1910
1966
Sq 30
1902
1201
+ 45
+ 45
Sq 23
1895
+9
+ 45
1951
+9
+ 45
2007
+9
Sq 19
+ 45
Sq 27
1899
0904
1899
0910
1899
0910
1955
2011
1891
+9
1947
+9
Sq 28
1900
1009
1956
1904
0827
1958
2003
+ 45
1949
+9
+ 45
+9
2012
0710
1117
1905
0214
1960
+ 45
2005
+9
2014
2016
Major Alaskan earthquakes M ≥ 8.1 denoted in red, with lesser earthquakes M ≥ 7.8 ≤ 8.0 denoted in blue. The month
and day given in parenthesis.
Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center. Parameters Alaska. Post 1700. M ≥ 7.8.
Source: McMinn (2014).