(DUO\GHWHFWLRQDQGLQWHUYHQWLRQLQ
SV\FKRVLV
$ORQJWHUPSHUVSHFWLYH
:HQFKHWHQ9HOGHQ+HJHOVWDG
Dissertation for the degree philosophiae doctor (PhD)
at the University of Bergen
Dissertation date: © Copyright Wenche ten Velden Hegelstad
Materialet i denne publikasjonen er omfattet av åndverkslovens bestemmelser.
.A
\Z[^
%00!(A
.(5 !0!0%+** %*0!.2!*0%+*%*,/5$+/%/B(+*#D0!.),!./,!0%2!B
+."00!.A !*$!0!*!( !*!#!(/0 Trykk:
AIT OSLO AS / Universitetet i Bergen
1
$!!.(5.!0)!*0* *0!.2!*0%+*%*/5$+/%/01 5O
P%/+((+.0%+*
!03!!*02*#!.*%2!./%05+/,%0(?/(+*%2!./%05+/,%0(((!2(?* +/'%( !)0/5#!$1/?!*).'* 3%0$(!! %($++(OPB$!0!*D5!.
"+((+3D1,/01 5(/+++,!.0!/3%0$0$!$!)0%/5$+/%/01 5OP?0/(+
*%2!./%05+/,%0(B
$!* % 0!%/!*.+((! %*0$!
*0!#.0! . 10!$++(+"
*0!#.0! !1.+/%!*!?
*/0%010!+"%+(+#%(* ! %(/5$+(+#5?1(05+"
/5$+(+#5?00$!*%2!./%05+"!.#!*B
$%//01 53/"1* ! 5).!% /+.#*!0!(/!!/0O+((+.0%+*!03!!*
0$!*%2!./%05+"!.#!** !(0$!/0?+.35P* 502*#!.*%2!./%05
+/,%0(B
2
$%//01 53/"1* ! 5#.*0".+)0$!!/0!.*+.35!#%+*(!(0$
10$+.%05!(/!!/0?* 502*#!.*%2!./%05+/,%0(?%2%/%+*+"
/5$%0.5B
%./0+"((?
3*00+0$*'((0$!/01 5,.0%%,*0/B*!$1* .! * "+1.0!!*+"
0$!)(!0)!%*0!.2%!30$!)"+./!2!.($+1./B*5(!0)!0'!0$!)0+0$!(0+
$2!(++ D/),(!/0'!*A$%.0!!*01!/+"(++ B(/+?0$!5(!0)!/1)%00$!)
0+*!1.+,/5$+(+#%(0!/0/B1%0!*1)!.+",0%!*0/(!0)!%*0+0$!%.$+)!0+
+* 100$!%*0!.2%!3%*#0$!.!?3$%$3/3!(+)!$*#!".+)0$!+""%!B
+)!(/++*/!*0! 0+
D/**%*#?-1%0!(1/0.+,$+%!* !2+1.?
$+3!2!.) !!/%!.50$!'%* /1,!.2%/%+*+"+),!0!*0. %+(+#%/0/B
$%/3+.'+1( *+0$2!!!*,+//%(!3%0$+100$!+))!*0/?/1##!/0%+*/?
!*+1.#!)!*0?* /1,,+.0(35/+""!.! /3%"0(5* ".%!* (%(5?5,.%).5
%*2!/0%#0+.2!%*.%%/B/+*!3$+'*+3/0$!
/01 5(%'!*++0$!.?$%/
!4,!.0%/!* ,0%!*!!4,(%*%*#0$%*#/0+)!$2!!!*%*2(1(!B
#%2!
0$*'/0+)5/1,!.2%/+.?./!*?"+.#1% *!?+))!*0/?.!2%/%+*/* /1##!/0%+*/B
0$*'$%)(/+"+.)+.(/1,,+.0?!4!((!*0+""!!* %*0!.!/0%*#
* %*/,%.%*#+*2!./0%+*/+*0$%/3+.'* ((+0$!.0+,%/B
(/+0$*')5+D
/1,!.2%/+.*/*#!2!( ?"+. %/1//%+*/%*10$B$*'5+1(/+,.+"B
!**!0$1# $("+.+))!*0/+*0$!"%*(0$!/%/B
$!
.!/!.$0!)+*/%/0/+"$%#$(5/'%((! .!/!.$!./".+)3$+)
$2!
(!.*! )1$B
*/(+A
*#.% !((!?&:.*%/$+2 1* ?&!0%(1* !0?*
2.
://!.#?!.#(1)?0!%*,&+. /)+!*?1(%!2!*/!*?!(!*!. !.B
*
!*).'A(.%'$.* .%'%)+*/!*B
*0$!A$+)/(/$*B
0$/
3
!!*,.%2%(!#!(!.*%*#".+)5+1B$*'5+1((B
3%(()%//0$!.!/!.$
)!!0%*#/* 0$!(+2!(5 %**!./B
002*#!.*%2!./%05+/,%0(?
0$*'"+.)!.$%!",/5$%0.%/0?*+3$! +"
.!/!.$* +D"+1* !.+"
?*(2+$**!//!*?* (! !.+"0$!!#%+*(
!*0.!"+.(%*%(!/!.$%*/5$+/%/?
*#!+?"+.,.+2% %*#)!3%0$0$!
+,,+.01*%050+"%*%/$)5$D3+.'* +)%*%*#%03%0$(%*%(3+.'B(/+
0$*'5+1+0$"+.(+*#!.0$* ! !#%2%*#)!0.1!/!*/!+"!(+*#%*#* "*0/0%".!! +)0+,1./1!)5+3*%*%0%0%2!/* % !/B
*50$*'/(/+"+.)5+D3+.'!./00$!.!/!.$!*0.!A!(%//!%!((?
!0.+/.+/+/?!*/%//!(#7. , Liss-Gøril Anda * +(&:.*.:**%'?
"+.!%*#
supportivecolleaguesandfriends.
,!%(0$*'/0+0$!,!+,(!3$+$2!3+.'! %*0$! !0!0%+*0!) 1.%*#0$!
5!./
$2!!!*3%0$
?* 0$!%.(! !.+!.0:.#!*/!*B
3+1( (%'!0+
)!*0%+*5*)!1 .1*1/0 ?+**5!00!./!*?+** !./!***?&!./0%
! .!:?.%! !*?.%/0%*0(:5?/!* !./.1 !.#!/!*B$*'/0+
2!%*1*#52%#3$+%/0$!,!./+*3$+) !((0$!
2!.0%/!)!*0/* $!(,! )!,.+2% %*#0$!)!.%*+1.*(+"/5$%0.5+2!.B$*'/0+/1,!.D
/!.!0.5* %+'*"+.0.*/.%%*#%*0!.2%!3/?* "+.+""!!.!'/B
$*'5+1?+((!#1!/00$!10!,/5$%0.%3. \?3$!.!
$2!3+.'! "+./+)*55!./?* 0$!D3. ]?"+./1,,+.0* +). !/$%,* ,(!%*5+1..+'* B$*'/0+(()5".%!* /?!/,!%((5!*!%0)**?3$+
%/3+.'%*#3%0$2+0%+*(.!$%(%00%+*+",0%!*0/3%0$,/5$+/%/?/+)!0$%*#
0$0%/2!.5(+/!0+)5$!.0B
4
/0?10*+0(!/0?0$*'5+1)5/+(10!(5/1,!.$%( .!*!/,!.* %*!?* )5$1/* /?"+.*!2!."%(%*#0+.%*#)!*%*#?(1#$0!.?/1.,.%/!* ((
/+.0/+"+0$!4%0%*#* +. %*.5!2!.5 5&+5/%*0+)5(%"!B
02*#!.?1*!\Z[]
!*$!0!*!( !*!#!(/0 5
&,*'-,!'&
2!.0$!(/0 ! !/0$!.!$/!!*#.+3%*#%*0!.!/0%*!.(5 !0!0%+** %*0!.2!*0%+*%*"%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/OPB/5$+0% %/+. !./.!.#1(5
)+*#0$!)+/0/!.%+1/)!*0( %/+. !./* $2!!!*'*+3*0+$2!
.!(0%2!(5,++.,.+#*+/%/B1)** /+%!0(+/0/.!$%#$B/5$+0% %/+. !./
/0.%'!,.! +)%**0(5%*!.(5 1(0$++ * %*0!."!.!3%0$.!!.* ,.0*!./$%,/$+%!/B*"+.01*0!(5?)!*0($!(0$.!+"0!*$//!!*,0%!*0/%*
(0!/0#!+"0$! %/+. !.B
*/,%0!+"%),.+2! ,.+#*+/%/"0!.0$!%*0.+ 10%+*
+"*!1.+(!,0%/* )+.!$1)*!0.!0)!*0?)*5,0%!*0//0%((/1""!.
$.+*%((5".+)/5),0+)/* ,++."1*0%+*%*#B2!.0$!5!./0$!-1!/0%+*
.+/!3$!0$!. !0!0%*#,/5$+/%/!.(%!.+1( %),.+2!,.+#*+/%/B!.$,/
I,,(5%*#!4%/0%*#/$%6+,$.!*%0.!0)!*0///++*/,+//%(!%*0$!+1./!+"
0$! %/+. !.)5/(+3+./0+, !0!.%+.0%+*JO(/$** +$**!//!*?[cc`PB
$0)!*/? !0!0%*#* %*0!.2!*%*#%*,/5$+/%/!.(%!.B
*0$%/0$!/%/?(+*#D
0!.)"+((+3D1,/01 5+"!.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/3%((!,.!/!*0! B%./0?"0!.
*%*0.+ 10%+*+*,/5$+/%/%*#!*!.(?
3%((,.!/!*0.%!"$%/0+.5+"!.(5
!0!0%+*%*,/5$%0.5B
3%((#++*0+,.+2% !*+2!.2%!3+"(+*#D0!.)/01 %!/
+"+10+)!* .!+2!.5%*,/5$+/%/%*#!*!.(* %*,.0%1(.B1.0%+*
+"*0.!0! /5$+/%/OP3%((! !/.%! * %/1//! B*+2!.2%!3+"
!.(5 !0!0%+*,.+#.))!/?)!*00+.! 1!?3%((!,.!/!*0! B
3%((0$!*
!/.%!0$!)!0$+ /* 0$!+*0!*0+"0$!
.(5!0!0%+*,.+#.))!?
* ,.!/!*0.!/1(0/".+)0$!/01 5B%*((5?.!/1(0/3%((! %/1//! ?* /+)!
)!0$+ +(+#%(* !0$%(+*/% !.0%+*/,.!/!*0! B
6
%%&*;+-%%*1!&'*/!&<
#*-&&6 /5'+/!(% !(/!. !. (*0
! (2+.(%#/0! ,/5'%/'! (% !(/!*! +#
'&!**!0!#*!/ 2 2.*#"+.!/0%((%*#!.? "+.2%..%*# +#M!((!. $((1/%*/&+*!. O,+/%0%2!
/5),0+)!.P? 0%('!0.!'*%*# +#M!((!. ,0% O*!#0%2! /5),0+)!.P? +#M!((!.
'+#*%0%2! "1*'/&+*/"+./05..!(/!.B !. !** _Zd 2 ,/%!*0!. $. ".!) !(!/
/5),0+)!. !00!. 0% 7.? +# 2.%!.!* ! #. !. 2 "1*'/&+*/*! /!00!(/! $!))!.
+,,0%( cZdB 01 %!. $. 2%/0 0% ". /5' +)//0.0 0%( !$* (%*# $!*#!. /))!*
)! ,.+#*+/!B % (%# *0!.2!*/&+* 2! 5'+/! O
PD,.+/&!'0!0 102%'(!0 +#
%),(!)!*0!.0! !0 %*0!*/%20 ,.+#.) "+. 7 "+.'+.0! 2.%#$!0 2 1!$* (!0
,/5'+/! OPB !/07. 2 %*0!*/%2! %*"+.)/&+*/'),*&!. .!00!0 )+0
(()!**!"+('*%*#? /'+(!.? $!(/!,!./+*!(( +# * .! .!(!2*0! ,.0!.? /)0 !0
(20!./'!(0% (%#+,, #!(/!/0!)B
D,.+/&!'0!0$.'+*0%*1!.0 !00!.!% !0%
[]7.B*'2/%D!'/,!.%)!*0!((/01 %!/+)/))!*(%'*!0
0% (%#%*0!.2!*/&+*
2! ,/5'+/!)! 2*(%#+,, #!(/!(!#&!**+)":.0)!((+)[cca+#\ZZZB% (%#
*0!.2!*/&+*//!'0+. O
D/!'0+.P /!'0+. 2. +#(* ? )!*/ '+*0.+((/!'0+.!. 2.
/(+ O/(+ *%2/!./%0!0//5'!$1/? ((!27(P +# +/'%( ! % *).'B D/!'0+. (!
.! 1/!.0".\`0%(^B_1'!.?)! %*2!. %B
'+*0.+((/!'0+.2.)! %*[`
1'!.B/%!*0!.".
D/!'0+.$
!(2!.!/5),0+)*%272! /0.02!$* (%*#?
(2!.! *%27 2 *!#0%2! /5),0+)!. !00!. !00 +# (2!.! *%27 2 *!#0%2!?
!,.!//%2!+#'+#*%0%2!/5),0+)!.!00!.0++#"!)7.B%0!!.'&!*0+)2.%/&+*%
+2!.0% +#(*#0%" /"+.(:,2! 0% (%#%*0!.2!*/&+*2! ,/5'+/!B
3$+,&!&*6!0":./0!)7(!0)! /01 %!*2.71* !./:'!2.%/&+*!.%
+2!.!*[bD7./,!.%+ !O[cc]D\Z[ZP)! 2.%!.!* !
D%*0!*/%0!0B!0* .!
)7(!02.71* !./:'!+)"+./'&!((!*!)!((+)
D'+*0.+((/!'0+.N"+./'&!((!.%
/5),0+)*%27$+( 0/!#%!00%7./,!./,!'0%2B+./'&!((!.%.0!.20%(".%/'*%*#?/+)
!.!*'+)%*/&+*2/5),0+).!)%/&+*+#"1*'/&+*/".%/'$!0?(!+#/71* !./:'0B
7
+)/%/0! !(2/01 %!*(! !01* !./:'0$2%('!"'0+.!./+)% ..0%(0!* !(
,/%!*0!.%''!+,,*7./5),0+).!)%/&+*,70.+//20% (%#%*0!.2!*/&+*B
,'*6**01.(%/0%/'(*#0% //01 %!(!.1'0"+.71* !./:'!2.%/&+*%
B(!.!#%/0.!.0,7((!*5!,/%!*0!./+)):00!'.%0!.%!."+.":./0!
!,%/+ !,/5'+/!OP)!((+)[cc]D[cc^O,%(+0"/!P+#[ccaD\Z[ZB01 %!*(!
!(0%**%
[O[ccaD\ZZZ@+,, #!(/!/0!),(1//%*"+.)/&+*/'),*&!.P?
\O\ZZ\D\ZZ^?'1*+,, #!(/!/0!)P?
\?
]O\ZZ_D\ZZ`@
+,, #!(/!/0!)/,(1//%*"+.)/&+*/'),*&!.P+#
^O\ZZaD\Z[Z@
+,, #!(/!/0!),(1//%*"+.)/&+*/'),*&!.?*7)! "+'1/102% !0)! .1/%* 1/!.0!,/5'+/!.PB((!,/%!*0!./Of`Z\PD2!. %!.(!%*'(1 !.0%
/01 %!*?1*/!00+),/%!*0!*!:*/'!0728.!)! %!*'(%*%/'+,,":(#%*#//01 %!
!((!.%''!B!00!#!01*%'0.!,.!/!*00%20 0#.1**(#B+./))!*(%'*%*#!*2
D/!'0+.)! '+*0.+((/!'0+.(!f\b[,/%!*0!.?( !.[bD`_?%*'(1 !.0)!((+)
[cca+#\ZZZ?)! %*"+.)!.0/)05''!B2 %//!(![Z[
+#a]
'+*0.+((/!'0+.,/%!*0!.1* !./:'0%#&!*!00!.0%7.,7'(%*%/'+#"1*'/&+*/)!//%#
10"((B%(/(100(!,/%!*0!.%/5),0+).!)%/&+*/))!*(%'*!0)! ,/%!*0!.
%''!%/5),0+).!)%/&+*,70% (%#/5),0+)/001/+#!$* (%*#?+#(+#%/0%/'
.!#.!/&+*(!.1'0"+.7% !*0%"%/!.!2.%(!./+)'1**!,.! %'!.!%''!D
.!)%/&+*B
+-$,,*6D"+. !(%*#!*!%* %'!.!.0
.! 1/!.0!2! 7.!'.100!.!
"(!.!,/%!*0!./28.00% (%#B!*(2!/0!)! %*2!. %!*(!.!#%/0.!.0%
[?
+#!*0%(/2.!* !(22!. %(!%''!+,,*7
%#&!*":.%\ZZcB+.0!.!2%/0!!*
#!*!.!((/))!*$!*#)! %*"+.)/&+*/'),*&!.?)!*:'0! )7(#.1,,!*"+.'),*&!*!%\ZZa(!102% !0)! .1/%* 1/!.0!,/5'+/!.B
))!*(%'*%*#!*)!((+)
+#'+*0.+((/!'0+.2%/0!0/%#*%"%'*0"(!.!,/%!*0!.
".
D/!'0+.2."1((00%(".%/'*!0!00!.0%7.O][2/[_dPB
)!.!**"+. +(!0
/&*/!*!,70%(".%/'*%*#O+
/.0%+\B_@'+*"% !*/%*0!.2(([B\D_B^P?%*'(1/%2!
8
/0%(/5),0+).!)%/&+*+#"1((0% /+. %*8.0!0(0.!% B!00!"1**!02.
.+1/0,70.+//20/%#*%"%'*0"(!.!,/%!*0!./+)$
!$00$:5!
/5),0+)*%272! 0% (%#!.!)7(%*#!. .+,,!010%'+*0.+((/!'0+.B1((0%(".%/'*%*#
$*#+#/7/))!*)! *%272*!#0%2!/5),0+)!.$!(0%/0.0!*2!$* (%*#B
! 1**0'2!'/%00+.%/'!O#%0/&+*)B)P/5),0+)!.?/+)$
!$:5!.!
2!. %!.%
D/!'0+.?2. !0%*#!*"+./'&!((!.%#&!**+)/*%00(%#/5),0+)*%27!00!.
0%7.?%)+0/!0*%*#0%($2!*"*02! !00?0++#"!)7.B
!)0%0.!,.+/!*02
D,/%!*0!.+#^bd2'+*0.+((/!'0+.,/%!*0!.2.%
/5),0+).!)%/&+*2! 0%D7./+,,":(#%*#!*B
''!D.!)%/&+*(!,.! %'!.02
2.%#$!0+#*%272,+/%0%2!/5),0+)!.?/,!/%!(0$((1/%*/&+*!.?% !0+":./0!
7.!*!!00!.!$* (%*#//0.0B!02.%*#!*"+./'&!((%!$* (%*#)!((+)
,/%!*0!./+)$
!+#%''!$
!2! 2.!* !,+/%0%2!/5),0+)!.% %//!7.!*!B
'&#$-+"'&*6
"+.'+.0!02! 7.!'.100!.!"(!.!,/%!*0!./28.00% (%#B%(
0.+//"+. !00!2.(*#"+.!* !(2,/%!*0!*!)! 7.(%#,.+#*+/!B%//!
,/%!*0!*!'*0!*'!/7$28.0)+0/0* / 5'0%#!)+0
D.!% !0B!0'*
/,!'1(!.!/0"+.*!'0%*#!((!.02%(.1* 0)%* .!%:5!*"((!* !*!#0%2!
/5),0+)!.$./,%(0!*.+((!B% !.!%* %'!.!..!/1(00!*!2
:.$!0/0%(0
+#2! 2.!* !%*0!*/0"+'1/B
/!.%!0(*#0% /,!./,!'0%2100%(7:'!/&*/!*!"+.!0)%( !.!/5' +)/"+.(:,
)! )%* .!*!#0%2!/5),0+)!.+#! .!"1*'/&+*B!'*%/)!*!' !00!!.
".!) !(!/%''!'(.!?)!*.!/1(00!*!%* %'!.!.!*/))!*$!*#)!((+)0%)%*#
2!$* (%*#+#10"((B5),0+)0%/'%''!D.!)%/&+*,7 !** .!/% !*2%/!.
/))!*$!*#)! 0% (%#!,+/%0%2!/5),0+)!.B!0'*/!10/+)0*!#0%2!+#
"1*'/&+*!((!,7 !*!*!?+#,+/%0%2!/5),0+)!.,7 !** .!?":(#!.1(%'!0./!!.B
% !*/5),0+).!)%/&+*!.!*"+.10/!0*%*#"+."1((0%(".%/'*%*#%* %'!.!. %//!
9
.!/1(00!*!0!*)!.'0%2!$* (%*#22! 2.!* !,+/%0%2!/5),0+)!.% !
":./0!7.!*!2!$* (%*#!.*: 2!* %#?12$!*#%#2+),/%!*0!.$.(%00
+,, #!00% (%#!((!.%''!B
10
+,*,:*++*$+
#*'-&6 $! * %*2%* !.(5 .!0)!*0 * *0!.2!*0%+* %* /5$+/%/
01 5 O
P !*#%*!!.! * !.(5 !0!0%+* OP +" ,/5$+/%/ ,.+#.))! 0$0
/+1#$0 0+ .! 1! 0$! 1.0%+* +" 1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/ OP 0$.+1#$ !.(5
!0!0%+* 0!)/ * !40!*/%2! %*"+.)0%+* ),%#*/B $! ,.+#.))! 3/
+*0%*1! "+.+2!.[]5!./B-1/%D!4,!.%)!*0(/01 5.*".+)[cca0$.+1#$
\ZZZ?+),.%*#*.!,.0%/%*#O.!P0+*.!3%0$1/1( !0!0%+*
O+ .!PB * 0$! .! 3/ .! 1! ".+) \` 0+ ^B_ 3!!'/? )! %*
2(1!B %* 0$! + .! 3/ [` 3!!'/B 0%!*0/ ".+) 0$! .! $ /%#*%"%*0(5 (+3!. +2!.(( /5),0+) (!2!(/ 0 /01 5 %*(1/%+*? )%( !. *!#0%2!
/5),0+)/ 0 +*!D5!. * )%( !. *!#0%2! * +#*%0%2! /5),0+)/ 0 03+ * "%2!5!./"+((+3D1,B%00(!%/'*+3*+10(+*#D0!.)2.%0%+*%** (+*#D
0!.),0%!*0+10+)!/%*+",/5$+/%/B
!%+6%./0?0$!+&!0%2!3/0+0.'2%%//%01 !/+"+2!.*[bD5!.,!.%+ O[cc]D\Z[ZP3%0$ %""!.%*#!""+.0/B$!/!+* +&!0%2!+"0$%//01 53/0+
%*2!/0%#0!0!*D5!.D+ %""!.!*!/%*/5),0+)/* .!+2!.5?3$%$%/
+)%*0%+*+"/5),0+)0%.!)%//%+** #++ "1*0%+*(+10+)!B$%. ?
"0+./!4,(%*%*#,++./5),0+)+10+)!3%0$* 3%0$+103!.!!4,(+.! B
, '+6$!+"((,0%!*0/)!!0%*#.%0!.%"+."%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/
OP3/)!/1.! [cc]D[cc^O,%(+0,$/!P* ".+)[cca0$.+1#$\Z[Z?%*
*01.(%/0%(+*#D0!.)/01 5B$!/01 53/ %2% ! %*0+
[O[ccaD\ZZZ@
!0!0%+*0!)/,(1/%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/P?
\O\ZZ\D\ZZ^@ !0!0%+*
0!)/+*(5P?
]O\ZZ_D\ZZ`@ !0!0%+*0!)/,(1/%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/P
* ^O\ZZaD\Z[Z@ !0!0%+*0!)/,(1/%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/?*+3(/+
.!//%*#/1/0*!%* 1! ,/5$+/%/PB2(1!/+"((,0%!*0/3!.!
11
%*(1 ! Of`Z\P?%..!/,!0%2!+",0%!*0/H,.0%%,0%+*%*0$!(%*%("+((+3D1,
/01 5?5%!( %*#$%#$(5.!,.!/!*00%2!/),(!B+.0$!0!*D5!.D+
+),.%/+*?\b[OA[^[?+A[^ZP,0%!*0/#! [bD`_3%0$"%./0!,%/+ !+"
*+*D""!0%2!,/5$+/%/3!.!%*(1 ! !03!!*[cca* \ZZ[B"0$!/!?[Z[
* a]+,0%!*0/3!.!"+((+3! 1,0[Z5!./* +),.! +*/5),0+)
(!2!(/?.!)%//%+** *+*D.!)%//%+*?* .!+2!.5B%*((5?.!)%00! * *+*D
.!)%00! ,0%!*0/3!.!+),.! +*!.(5/5),0+),.+#.!//%+*?* (+#%/0%
.!#.!//%+*3/,,(%! 0+% !*0%"52.%(!/,.! %0%*#*+*D.!)%//%+*B
+-$,+6$! %/0.%10%+*/+"%* %0!0$0)*#!/0+.! 1!)% D* (+*#D.*#!5.!.1%0%*#)+.!,0%!*0/2!.5!.(5B+3!2!.?0$!(+3)! %*
0$03/$%!2! %*[ccaD\ZZZ3/*+0.!D$%!2! 1*0%(\ZZcB$+.0!.
3///+%0! 3%0$0$!,.!/!*!+"%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/?$+3!2!.
%*.!/! 3$!*0.#!0,+,1(0%+*$*#! 0+%*(1 !,0%!*0/3%0$/1/0*!D
%* 1! ,/5$+/%/%*\ZZa? though *+0/00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0B
*0$!/!+* /01 5?/%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.,!.!*0#!+"+),.! 0++,0%!*0/3!.!
.!+2!.! 00!*5!./O][d2/B[_dP?(.#!(5!1/!+"$%#$!.!),(+5)!*0
.0!/"+.,0%!*0/%*0$%/#.+1,B$%/$!( 0.1! !/,%0!)+.!/!2!.!(5%((,0%!*0/
.+,,%*#+10+"0$!/01 5%*0$!+.!B4!,0"+.$%#$!.(!2!(/+"!4%00%2!
/5),0+)/%*0$!.!?0$!.!3!.!*+)!*/5),0+) %""!.!*!/!03!!*0$!
#.+1,/B%"05D0$.!!,!.!*0+"* ^bd+"+,0%!*0/3!.!%*
/5),0+)0%.!)%//%+*B!#. (!//+"?/5),0+)0%*+*D.!)%//%+*3/
,.! %0! 5,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/0%*(1/%+** ,!./%/0%*#,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/
1.%*#0$!"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*0B"%* %2% 1(/5),0+)/+*(5$((1%*0%+*/
3!.!/%#*%"%*0(5,.! %0%2!+"0!*D5!.*+*D.!)%//%+*B.(5/5),0+)
%""!.!*!/3!.!*+0.!"(!0! 5 %""!.!*!/%*0.!0)!*0B
'&$-+!'&+6%./0?0$!1.2!/3$+(!$/!!*)+2! 0+3. /0$!
/$+.0!.O(!"0P!* +"0$!+*0%*11)B+3!2!.?/!!)/0+$2!"%(! %*,%'%*#
12
1,/+)!+"0$!,++.!.D,.+#*+/%/(+*#,0%!*0/B!.$,/ !*%(* /0%#)?
(+*#3%0$ +10//0+0$!)+.!%*/% %+1//5),0+)/?*!! 0+!
.!//! )+.!
!4,(%%0(5B1.0$!.)+.!?%0/!!)/0$0%*"+.)0%+*),%#*//$+1( $2!
/0(!0.#!0#.+1,?/0(!"+1/* $%#$%*0!*/%05(!2!(B101.!.!/!.$
/$+1( "1.0$!.!(1% 0!,0$35/0+.!%*+. !.0+!/0(%/$,.%*%,(0.#!0/
"+.%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/B!+* ?,,!./0+%*.!/!0$!$*!+")%( !.
!"%%0"+.)0%+*/* /1,!.%+."1*0%+*%*#B$!)!$*%/)/53$%$0$%/
/0.0!#5%),.+2!/0$!(+*#D0!.),.+#*+/%/+",/5$+/%/.!)%*/,!1(0%2!B
!2!.0$!(!//?+1."%* %*#/+2!.0!*5!./)5%* %0!0$0,.+#*+/0%(%*'
!4%/0/!03!!*0%)%*#+"%*0!.2!*0%+** +10+)!0$0 !/!.2!/"1.0$!./01 5B
$%. ?(+*#D0!.)/5),0+)0%*+*D.!)%//%+*/!!)///+%0! 3%0$!.(5
,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B
0,,!./0$0"1*0%+*(* /5),0+)0% !2!(+,)!*0
"+((+3 %""!.!*0?,.0(5%* !,!* !*00.'/?*!#0%2!/5),0+)/!%*#)+.!
(+/!(5(%*'! 0+"1*0%+*(+10+)!?3$%(!,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/.!)%*//+%0! 3%0$/5),0+)+10+)!B+.!//!.0%2!%*0!.2!*0%+*)5!*!! ! %*,0%!*0/
3$+ +*+0.!/,+* .+1/0(5%*0$!"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*0?3$!0$!.+.*+00$!5
$2!!!* !0!0! I!.(5JB
13
!+,'(-$!,!'&+;!&'**'((*&<
[B !#!(/0 ?B!*!( !*@./!*?B?1!/0 ?B?2!*/!*?B@$.?B@
+?
B@+$**!/!*?B@*#!2!( ?B@!((!?
B@,&+. /)+!*?B@+//!.#?
B@1* ?B@%)+*/!*?B@1* !0?B@#(1)?B@.%%/?B@?(/$*?B
-$" '-%! $"($$ !#( ###$%(+$# 21-(" %$ B)/5$%0.5@\Z[\@[`cA,B]a^D]bZB
\B !#!(/0 ?B0!*!( !*@./!*?B?1!/0 ?B?2!*/!*?B@$.?B@
+?
B@+$**!/!*?B@*#!2!( ?B@!((!?
B@,&+. /)+!*?B@+//!.#?
B@1* ?B@%)+*/!*?B@#(1)?B@(/$*?B@.%%/?B"(
$$ *"(#(!$ !" "## #(!$ $"## #$$%#
$"$("#"#$!# !#( ###$%(,$%6+,$.!/@\Z[]@
[^]@,B]]aD]^]B
]B !#!(/0 ?B0!*!( !*@./!*?B?1!/0 ?B?2!*/!*?B@$.?B@
+?
B@+$**!/!*?B@*#!2!( ?B@!((!?
B@,&+. /)+!*?B@+//!.#?
B@1* ?B@%)+*/!*?B@#(1)?B@(/$*?B@.%%/?B"$ %"$ $"$#( ##23-("!"#!$&*.(5
*0%*
/5$@!,0! B
14
'&,&,
"
;
<#
:
;
< >7 %
>7> +1 '+!+77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>F
>7? *! !+,'*1'*$1!&,*.&,!'&&(+1 '+!+777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777?=
>7@ !*+,(!+'(+1 '+!+;<777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777?@
>7A '-*+&-,'%77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777?A
>7B '.*1777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777?B
[B_B[ 01 %!/+*.!+2!.5BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB\a
>7C *!,*!'*'.*17777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777@=
?7> -*,!'&'&,*,+1 '+!+;<7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777@?
?7? &,*&,!'&$!&!&+7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777@?
?7@ *'*%%+,'*-6*$1,,!'&777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777@A
?7A ,'*+!&$-&!&7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777@E
?7B *.&,!'&+,*,!+!&(+1 '+!+77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777A=
\B_B[ .%).5,.!2!*0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB^Z
\B_B\ !+* .5,.!2!*0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB^[
\B_B] !.0%.5,.!2!*0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB^\
\B_B^ *%2!./(?/!(!0%2!?* %* %0! ,.!2!*0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB^\
15
?7C -!&6'%!&!&!*&,$.$+'(*.&,!'&7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777A@
@7> ",!.+&*+* )-+,!'&+77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777AA
@7? 1(', ++7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777AB
@7@ , '+7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777AB
]B]B[ !/%#*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB^_
]B]B\ .0%%,*0/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB^`
@7A ]B^B[
]B^B\
]B^B]
*$1,,!'&!&,*.&,!'&7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777B>
$!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB_[
!0!0%+*0!)/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB_a
.!0)!*0,.+0++(BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB_b
@7B ++++%&,+77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777BE
]B_B[ !(%%(%05BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB`[
@7C ,,!+,!$&$1++77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777C?
"!
A7> *!,!'&!&-*,!'&'&,*,+1 '+!+!&&>E81*(*+(,!.77777777777777777777777777777777777777CB
A7? '&8*%'$$'/8-(', *$1,,!'&!&+1 '+!+,-16,+'&&8*
-,'%777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777CC
A7@ *$1,,!'&5*$1+1%(,'%(*'*++!'&&+1%(,'%,!*%!++!'&,*,&1*+!&
!*+,(!+''(+1 '+!++,-17777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777CD
! "%
B7> '&!,-!&$8+,-17777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777CF
_B[B[ ),(!$.0!.%/0%/.+//
,$/!/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB`c
_B[B\ % *+0.!)%*0/0(!(+3(!2!(/ 1.%*#,!.%+ /3%0$0$!"1((D,.+#.))!BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBa[
_B[B] 3///+%0! 3%0$0$!,.!/!*!+"%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBa\
B7? &81*8''%(*!+'&77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777D?
_B\B[ 5),0+) 2*0#!/".+)%*(1/%+*?+*!?03+?* "%2!5!."+((+3D1,3!.!*+0)%*0%*! 00$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBa\
_B\B\ $!D.!$/$%#$!..0!/+".!+2!.500!*D5!."+((+3D1,BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBab
B7@ &81*(*!,!'&'&'&8*%!++!'&7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777E=
" $
C7> *!,!'&!&777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777E?
`B[B[ !.!/%*#/(%!*!+",/5$%0.%%*"+.)0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBb\
`B[B\ 4,* ! "+1/+"%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/)5$2!(! 0+!4,* ! ,+,1(0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBb\
C7? &'*%,!'&%(!&+/*++'!,/!, 7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777E@
16
`B\B[ !(,D/!!'%*# !(5/* $!(0$D/5/0!) !(5/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBb]
C7@ '+1%(,'%!*&+,,&1*+777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777EA
`B]B[ !(!0%2!00.%0%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBb^
`B]B\ !(0%2!(5/$+.0+BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBb_
C7A ! **'.*1*,+!&777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777EB
`B^B[ .%0%%/)+"%*0!.,.!00%+*+".!/1(0/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBb`
C7B *!,!'&'&'&8*%!++!'&77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777ED
`B_B[ !#0%2!* ,+/%0%2!%((*!//0.&!0+.%!/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBba
`B_B\ +*D+),(%*!BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBbb
C7C 55+1%(,'%+5&'-,'%777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777EF
# %
D7> +-*%&, $$&+!&, +,-17777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777F>
D7? ' '*,,+777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777F@
D7@ &,*&$&0,*&$.$!!,1!&, 8''%(*!+'&7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777FA
D7A !*-%+,&+7777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777FC
aB^B[ ,%*D+""!""!0/+"A+*"+1* !./+.)+ !.0+./FBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBc`
aB^B\ !#.!!+"1.*%%05BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBca
aB^B] !(!0%+*%/BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBca
aB^B^ 10+*+)+1/$*#!3%0$%*0$!/1&!0/+2!.0%)!BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBcc
aB^B_ !0!/0D!""!0BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB[ZZ
aB^B` !/1.!)!*0/0+*!0%)!,+%*0)5 %""!.".+))!/1.!)!*0/+*0$!*!40BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB[ZZ
aB^Ba 00%/0%(.!#.!//%+*BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB[Z[
aB^Bb .+,+10BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB[Z[
$ E7> $+('+!,!.+77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>=@
E7? ,!%,!+,!'&777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>=@
E7@ &'*%'&+&,77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>=A
E7A ,9+-&, !$&',,'!&,*.&777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>=B
% "
>=7> $
7'&8,*%'-,'%+,-!+!&(+1 '+!+777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>@?
>=7? $
7!&!,!'&+&$&, +'*'++, /'*$77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777>@F
>=7@ ,,*1*7%'+,', !,'*', %*!&'-*&$'+1 !,*1&*+('&+1
*'-( >AB
17
#
18
>7 #*'-&
1.1 Psychosis
/5$+/%/?+. %*#0+0$!4"+. %0%+*.5?%/ !"%*! /I/!2!.!)!*0(
%/+. !.%*3$%$0$+1#$0* !)+0%+*/.!/+%),%.! 0$0+*00%/(+/03%0$
!40!.*(.!(%05JB/5$+0%/5),0+)/)5.%/!3%0$+10*5'*+3*
!*2%.+*)!*0(+.%+(+#%(0.%##!.?+."+((+3%*#/0.!//O0/0!.!0(B?\Z[\P?
.1#1/!O.!* 0!0(B?\ZZ_@!0%*!0(B?\ZZ`@0!(* !((?[cc[P?!.0%*
)! %(+* %0%+*/?0.*!/00!/O/0%((+?\ZZ]P?+./(!!, !,.%20%+*
O+%2%*?\ZZZ@+00!/)**?\ZZ`PB$!5%*(1 !$((1%*0%+*/?)+/0+"0!*
1 %0+.5$((1%*0%+*/%*0$!"+.)+"2+%!$!.%*#?102%/1(?00%(!?+("0+.5
+.0/0!$((1%*0%+*/)5+1.B$!5(/+%*(1 !0$+1#$0 %/+.#*%/0%+*?0+
!+/!.2! /%*+$!.!*0/,!!$+. %/+.#*%/! !$2%+1.?* !(1/%+*/?
%6..!+.*+*D%6..!B$!/!.!(((!((! ,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B$!)+.!
/!.%+1/"+.)/+",/5$+/!/#%2!.%/!0+*!#0%2!/5),0+)/?/1$/('+"
)+0%20%+** %*%0%0%2!?,/5$+)+0+.,+2!.05?"(0""!0?,0$5?* /+%(
3%0$ .3(B
/5$+0%/5),0+)/ +*+0+1.3%0$%*,/5$+0% %/+. !./+*(5B$!5)5!
,.!/!*03%0$%*3% !.*#!+" %#*+/0%0!#+.%!/ !/.%! %*0$!%#*+/0%
* 00%/0%(*1(OD
P+"0$!)!.%*/5$%0.%//+%0%+*
OPO//+%0%+*?\ZZZP?/1$/""!0%2! %/+. !./?,+/00.1)0%/0.!//
%/+. !.O! !0(B?\ZZ_P? %//+%0%2! %/+. !./O+//!0(B?[cc\P@+. !.(%*!
,!./+*(%05 %/+. !.O!!!0(B?\ZZ_P?%*/$%6+05,(* /$%6+% ,!./+*(%05
%/+. !./?* %*/,!.#!.H//5* .+)!O'+'1/'/* ((#$!.?\Z[ZPB+)!
"%* %*#/!2!*/1##!/00$0,+/%0%2!,/5$+0%/5),0+)/+1.%*_Dbd+"0$!
#!*!.(,+,1(0%+**+0,.!/!*0%*#"+.0.!0)!*0O2*/?\ZZ]PB
19
,!%"%,/5$+0% %/+. !./%*(1 !/$%6+,$.!*%? !(1/%+*( %/+. !.?
/$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !.?/$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %/+. !.?.%!",/5$+0% %/+. !.* ,/5$+/%/*+0+0$!.3%/!/,!%"%! B$%6+,$.!*%%/0$!)+/0/!2!.!"+.)B
0/
,+%*0,.!2(!*!%/,,.+4%)0!(5^B_,!.[ZZZ?(%"!0%)!,.!2(!*!+10[d?
* 5!.(5%*% !*!+*2!.#![_,!.[ZZZZZ+"0$!,+,1(0%+*O* +*!0
(B?\ZZbPB
0%/ %#*+/! +*0$!/%/+"0$!*1)!.?/!2!.%05* 1.0%+*+"
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/B
*/$%6+,$.!*%,/5$+0%/5),0+)/+"0!*"(1010!%**
!,%/+ %)**!.?3%0$.!1..%*#,/5$+0%!,%/+ !/* %*0!.)%00%*#,!.%+ /+"
.!)%//%+*B
*+10\ZD]Zd+",0%!*0/?0$!+1./!%/$.+*%B1.0$!.)+.!?
/$%6+,$.!*%%///+%0! 3%0$$!%#$0!*! )+.0(%05O1/$!*!0(B?[ccbPB
0!/+"+),(!0! /1%% !$2!!!*"+1* 0+.*#!!03!!*_* []dO+),%(%
!0(B?\Z[[PB
**%/$/01 5?[_D\`d+",0%!*0/$ ) !+*!+.)+.!/1%% !
00!),0/!"+.!0$!%."%./0+*003%0$)!*0($!(0$.!O+. !*0+"0!0
(B?\ZZ^PB+*!(%*!//* /+%((%!*0%+*.!%),+.0*0%//1!/@+),.! 0+0$!
#!*!.(,+,1(0%+*?/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/(/+$2!aD[Z0%)!/$%#$!..%/'+"
!%*#/%*#(![Z5!./"0!."%./0 )%//%+*O#!.+!0(B?\ZZ^PB
*/1)?0$!
$1)*+/0%/2/0* +"0!* !2/00%*#B
1.2 A brief history of early intervention and psychosis
$!+*!,0+"!.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*%*,/5$%0.5 !2!(+,! %*0$!(0!/0 !!**%
+"0$!\Z0$!*01.53%0$%*0$!".)!3+.'+")%*(5%+(+#%(,. %#)?0.%*#
'0+0$![c[Z/* D\Z/?3$!*,/5$%0.53//+)!0$%*#0$03/,.0%/! %*
)!*0(/5(1)/+*!.*%*#2!.5%((* !2%*0,0%!*0/B$!!.)*,/5$%0.%/0
.!,!(%*/0.+*#(5 $!.! 0+)! %()+ !(+")!*0( %/+. !./?+.#*%/%*#
(1/0!./+"/5),0+)/%*0+(//%"%0%+*+"*+/+(+#%( %/!/!!*0%0%!/B$%/
!)!3% !(51/! 5(%*%%*/%*0$!!/0!.*3+.( B"0!.+.( .
?0$!
.!(%/0%+*+"0$!%),00$0I/0.!//J?* 0.1)?+1( $2!+*)!*0($!(0$
20
#.!3?!/,!%((5%*0$!B$!!4%/0%*#,/5$%0.%*+/+(+#%!/"%(! 0+,01.!
0$0B!1.+0%/5),0+)//1$/*4%!05,.+(!)/.!!%2! %*.!/! %*0!.!/0B
*0!.2!*%*#%*0$!/!/00!/3/0$+1#$00+,+//%(5,.!2!*0)+.!/!2!.!
,/5$+(+#%(/5),0+)/@,.!1./+.+"0+ 5H/!.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*%*,/5$%0.5B
$!.!3/(/+.!*!3! %*0!.!/0%*,/5$+*(50%(0$%*'%*#B
!*0(%((*!//)!0+!/!!*/.!/1(0+",/5$+(+#%(+*"(%0* !*2%.+*)!*0("0+./+((% %*#O%./0* '!"%!( ?\Z[ZPB
*
%0%+*?/+%+(+#5
* *0$.+,+(+#5#%*! %*"(1!*!!1/!+"0$!/%-1!/0%+*/0$0.+/!+10
3.* %0/1/!/* !""!0/B
$!#.+3%*#%*"(1!*!+"0$!/!/%!*0%"% %/%,(%*!/3/(/+,,.!*03%0$%*
,/5$%0.5B+%((//?"+.%*/0*!?3/0$.+1#$/!2!.(/01 %!/!/0(%/$! /
!0!.)%**0+")!*0( %/+. !./O(!.)*!0(B?[cb_PB$!/+%(* *(50%(
35/+"0$%*'%*#3!.!+)%*! %*0+,/5$+/+%()+ !(+")!*0( %/+. !.?
3$%$.!)%*! 0$!,.!2%(%*#,. %#)%*,/5$%0.51*0%(0$!)% DaZ/B$!"%./0
%#*+/0%* 00%/0%(*1("+.!*0(%/+. !./?,1(%/$! %*0$!
[c_\?3/,.+ 10+"0$%/,. %#)B/5$+(+#%(/5),0+)/ % *+0.!"(!0
%/!/!!*0%0%!/?10.0$!."1("%((! "1*0%+*+" %/#1%/%*#1* !.(5%*#+*"(%0B
*
0$!"%!( +",/5$+/%/?,/5$+(+#%/0/* ,/5$%0.%/0/(++'! "+.!0%+(+#%(
"0+./* !4,(*0%+*/%* 2!./!$%( $++ !4,!.%!*!/?,.0%1(.(5
!)+0%+*(!4,!.%!*!/.!(0! 0++))1*%0%+*B5,%((5?,/5$+/!/3!.!
((! I/$%6+,$.!*%.!0%+*/J?* I,/5$+0% !,.!//%2!.!0%+*/J?* /+
"+.0$B
*0$!1.+,!** * %*2%*+1*0.%!/?$+3!2!.?,/5$%0.50!* ! 0+
)%*0%*0$!.!,!(%*%*0. %0%+*?%*3$%$ %/!/!!*0%0%!//1$/,/5$+/%/
3!.!!(%!2! 0+$2!/,!%"%%+(+#%(1/!/B!*!?%*0$!+.0$)!.%*
0. %0%+*00$%/0%)!?)!*0(%((*!//3/)1$)+.!1*%0.5+*!,0?3$!.!
%#*+/0%#.+1,/3!.!-1*0%00%2!(5?*+0-1(%00%2!(5? %""!.!*0)*%"!/00%+*/
+"0$!/)!?!*2%.+*)!*0((5 !0!.)%*! 1/!/?3$!.!/%*0$!1.+,!*
0. %0%+*? %""!.!*0!0%+(+#%!//0%((3!.!0$+1#$00+1/! %""!.!*0 %/!/!/B
21
!1/!%*0$!+.0$)!.%*0. %0%+*+1* .%!/!03!!*0$!3!((* 0$!
/%'!)! %""1/!?0$!*0%D,/5$%0.5)+2!)!*0#%*! 0!..%*O6/6?[ca^PA
$!(!((%*#+",!+,(!/I)!*0((5 %/+. !.! J3/)!$*%/)+"/+%!0(
+*0.+(O+"")**?[c`[@$!""?[caZP?* +),.+)%/! 0$!(!#(* $1)*
.%#$0/+",0%!*0/B1.0$!.)+.!?%*)+ !(3$!.!)!*0( %/!/!/*!*0%05 % *+0!4%/0?2(% %05* .!(%%(%05+" %#*+/!/3!.!2%#+.+1/(5 %/,10! B/
.!0%+*?0$!.!(%%(%05+" %#*+/!/3/!2(10! !),%.%((5O+%*/* 16!?[caZPB+"%(%00!0$%/3+.'/0.101.! %*/0.1)!*0/0+)'! %#*+/0%
(//%"%0%+*/3!.! !2!(+,! B(/+?*%*.!/%*#*1)!.+",/5$%0.%/0/
.%0%%/! *0%D,/5$%0.5?0+ !"!* 0$!%.,.+"!//%+*?3$%$?/.!/1(0+"/+%(
,/5$%0.5* /+%(0%2%/)?3/+*I0$!! #!+"!40%*0%+*J+. %*#0+0$!
,.!/% !*0+"0$!)!.%*/5$%0.%//+%0%+*00$00%)!O%(/+*?[cc]PB
1.0$!.)+.!?0$!.#1)!*03/) !0$0/!2!.!(5%((,0%!*0/ % *+0#!00$!
0.!0)!*00$!5*!! ! B$%/).'! .!01.*0+0$!)! %()+ !(+" %/!/!?
.!01.*0$03/"1!((! 50$!#.+3%*#1/!+")! %0%+*(%'!(%0$%1)* *!1.+(!,0%/?%*0.+ 1! %*0$![c_Z/* [c`Z/B$!/!%),.+2! 0$!+1./!+"
/5),0+)/B1.%*#0$![caZH/0$! !2!(+,! *!32!./%+*+"0$!?3$%$
3/"%*%/$! %*[cbZB
03+1( ! !/.%,0%2!)*1("+.0$!//!//)!*0+"
!/%(5+/!.2(!/5),0+)/B
03/%),+.0*00+((0$!(%/0! %#*+/!/
I %/+. !./J?I %/!/!J?I%((*!//J+.I/5* .+)!/J?*+0+*(5"+.% !+(+#%(.!/+*/
(%/0! +2!10(/+"+.!+*+)%(.!/+*/D%*/1.*!+),*%!/3+1( *+0
.!%)1./!0.!0)!*0+"3$03/*+ %/+. !.? %/!/!?%((*!//?+./5* .+)!B
,. %#)/$%"0'0+%+(+#53/*+3"0?* 0$!$+,!3/0$0 %/!/!/
3%0$'*+3*?,.! +)%**0(5%+(+#%(?!0%+(+#%!/3+1( 3%0$0%)!* .!/!.$
.!,(!0$!0$!+.5D*!10.(0!#+.%(* !/.%,0%2! %#*+/!/%*0$!B
$%/+1./!+"$%/0+.5(/+%*"(1!*! 0$!1* !./0* %*#* 0.!0)!*0+"0$!
,/5$+/!/* 0$!+*!,0+"!.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*B2!.0$! ! !/0$!+*!,0+"
22
*!1.+0%!.(5/5),0+)//)%( 2.%!0%!/+"(0!./!2!.!,/5$+,0$+(+#5?/
/!!*"0!.+.( .
?&+%*! 3%0$0$!%+(+#%(,. %#)B.(5 !0!0%+** %*0!.2!*0%+*%*,/5$+/%/3//% 0+!I/! +*0$!+*2%0%+*0$01..!*0
0.!0)!*0)+ (%0%!/"+./$%6+,$.!*%.!!40.0%*# %)%*%/$%*#.!01.*/
!1/!0$!5 +*+0
.!//0$!/%*!1.+%+(+#%( !0!.%+.0%+*+. !"%%0
"+.)0%+*///+%0! 3%0$0$! %/+. !.JO(/$** +$**!//!*?[cc`PB
$%/*+0%+*,.!/1,,+/!//+)!/+.0+" !#!*!.0%2!,.+!//?3%0$.++0/%*0$!
%+(+#%(,. %#)%*,/5$+(+#5* ,/5$%0.5B
1.3 First episode psychosis (FEP)
$%(!,0%!*0/)5!4,!.%!*!+*!!,%/+ !+*(5?)+/0 +*+0B
*10$
%*% !*!/01 5O,.0+"0$!
*0!.*0%+*(01 5+"$%6+,$.!*%O
/+P?a_d+"
"%./0!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/$ 0(!/0+*!)+.!!,%/+ !50$![_D5!.
"+((+3D1,B"0$+/!3$+.!(,/! ?bZd$ )+.!0$*03+.!(,/!/B!*!?%/
,.! %0+.+""101.!,/5$+0%!,%/+ !/ (Wiersmaetal.,1998)
B !/!.$%* %0!/
0$0!.(5%((*!// ,$/!/* .!/,+*/!0+0.!0)!*0 1.%*#0$!"%./05!./"0!.+*/!0
.!.!(!2*0 "+."101.!+1./!O%.$3++ !0(B?[[email protected])(%/$!0(B?\ZZcPB
0$/
!!*$5,+0$!/%6! 0$0%+(+#%((5 .%2!* !0!.%+.0%+*+,!.0!/3%0$%*0$!3%* +3
+"*!1.+ !2!(+,)!*0?* 3$!*0$%/ !2!(+,)!*0/0+,/?/+ +!/
!0!.%+.0%+*O(/$** !*0+*?[cc]PB+.%*/0*!?/5),0+)0+(+#5
O%.$3++ !0(B?[[email protected])(%/$!0(B?\ZZcP/$+3/ !(%*! 1.%*#0$!"%./0\D]
5!./+"%((*!//?10(!2!(/+""* /0%(%6!/?/ +!/*!1.+,/5$+(+#%(
"1*0%+*%*#O+6%'/* * .!+1?\Z[[@1* !0(B?\ZZ^PB!(5! ?+.*+*D
.!/,+*/!0+,/5$+,$.)+(+#%(0.!0)!*0O..%/+*!0(B?\ZZ[@!.'%*/!0
(B?\ZZ^P.!/1(0%*#%*)+.!0%)!%*,/5$+/%/ 1.%*#0$!"%./003+5!./+"%((*!//
,.! %0,++.!.+10+)!%*0!.)/+"$%#$!.(+*#D0!.)/5),0+)(!2!(/B
23
1.4 Course and Outcome
+/0+"0$!'*+3(! #!+"+10+)!%*,/5$+/%//0!)/".+)!%0$!.$.+*%?0.!0! %*% !*!?+.I"%./0!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%J/),(!/?+.)%401.!+"((0$!/!?+"0!*
+*2!*%!*!/),(!/".+)$+/,%0(/B$%/$),!./+),.%(%05O(!/!** +.0!*/!*?\ZZ\PB$!/!/01 %!/%* %0!0$0!2!*0$+1#$+1./!* ,.+#*+/%/
$2!%),.+2! "0!.0$!%*0.+ 10%+*+"*0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+*
O(!*/'5?[cca@$3.06!0(B?[cc]P* /0.101.! ,/5$+/+%(0.!0)!*0/
O%((%*#!0(B?\ZZ\P?1,0+bZd+",0%!*0/3%0$0$!)+/0/!2!.!
"+.)/+",/5$+/%//0%((/1""!.*+10+)!$.0!.%6! 5!%0$!..!(,/%*#
/5),0+)/?"1*0%+*(%*,%05+.+0$O+00(!* !.!0(B?\ZZ]@+00(!* !.!0
(B?\Z[Z@*!2!0(B?[ccb@..%/+*!0(B?\ZZ[@+,,!.* * !.(%*#?\ZZZ@
.*!.+/!0(B?[cbc@+ !/0%*!0(B?\ZZ]@%!./)!0(B?[ccbPB$
', ((&!0/$+3/+10+)!/?/),(!/?* !"%*%0%+*/+"(+*#D0!.)/01 %!/Oh[Z
5!./PB++.+10+)!%///+%0! 3%0$)(!#!* !.* 5+1*##!M!.(5#!+"
+*/!0O(0)1.!0(B?\ZZa@* +*!0(B?\ZZc@%!./)!0(B?[ccbP?,++.
,.!)+.% "1*0%+*%*#O./!*!0(B?\ZZ^@+'!0(B?\ZZ^P?/1/0*!
1/!O.!!*!0(B?\ZZ^P?* ,/5$+(+#%(0.1)O+ #%*/!0(B?\ZZc@5/'!.
!0(B?\ZZcPB
0(!/0_Zd+"/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/$2!!!*"+1* 0+!4,!.%!*!,+/%0%2!
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/!5+* [Z5!./"0!.+*/!0O.+)!0!0(B?\ZZ_@0+((!0
(B?[cc]PB1.0$!.)+.!?,,.+4%)0!(5[_d %/,(5 !"%%0,0$+(+#5?%B!B
/5* .+)!/$.0!.%6! 5$.+*%*!#0%2!/5),0+)/* ,++.+10+)!?
.%/%*#0+\_D]Zd%*$.+*%,+,1(0%+*/O%.',0.%'!0(B?\ZZ[@0.1//!0
(B?\Z[ZPB50$![ccZH/?%03/+*/% !.! *!/0(%/$! "00$0*!#0%2!
/5),0+)/.!)+*#0$+/!0$0)+/0 2!./!(5%*"(1!*!+10+)!O!!"!!0
(B?[cbaPB!03!!*\ZD^_d+"/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/.!""!0! ? !,!* %*#+*
0$!"+((+3D1,0%)!+"0$!/),(!O++*/0.!0(B?\Z[\PB$!5.!//+%0! 3%0$
24
%),%.)!*0/%*%* !,!* !*0(%2%*#/'%((/?/+%("1*0%+*%*#?* -1(%05+"(%"!
O(2.!6D%)!*!6!0(B?\Z[\@.+3*!!0(B?\ZZZ@%.',0.%'* %/$!.?\ZZ`@
%(!2!0(B?\ZZ_@+.)*!0(B?\ZZZ@!0!./!*!0(B?\ZZb@)/5!0(B?\Z[[@
$)%06!0(B?\ZZa@1.*!.!0(B?\ZZcPB(%*'!03!!**!#0%2!/5),0+)/* %+(+#%(,.+!//!/$/!!*/1##!/0! B.!!*0)!0D*(5/%//$+3! 0$0
*!#0%2!/5),0+)/.!(%*'! 0+#!*!0%/1/!,0%%(%05O/0!.!.#!0(B?\Z[ZPB
1.0$!.)+.!?+#*%0%2! 5/"1*0%+*/O+.!0(B?\ZZcP?#.!5)00!..! 10%+*/
O+.!0(B?\Z[[P?* +0$!..%**+.)(%0%!/.!)+.!+))+*%*0$!)+.!
/!2!.!/!/+"/$%6+,$.!*%3%0$*!#0%2!/5),0+)/O((%/+*D.%#$0!0
(B?\ZZbPB$!/!*+.)(%0%!//!!).!(0! 0+0+0( 1.0%+*+"%((*!//B!3(+*#D
0!.)/01 %!/? !"%*! /h[Z5!./?+"$2!!!*+),(!0! B4%/0%*#/01 %!/
.!,+.0+10`Zd,++.+10+)!?3%0$/+)!2.%%(%05%*3$0+*/0%010!/I#++ +10+)!JO!*.5!0(B?\Z[Z@$%0!!0(B?\ZZcP;$><7
1.5 Recovery
!+2!.5%/0$!+,,+/%0!+",++.+10+)!3%0$(/0%*#/5),0+)/* "1*0%+*(
%),%.)!*0B
0%/(+/!(5(%*'! 0+"1*0%+*(+10+)!B
0$/!!*+"%*0!.!/0/%*!
.!,!(%*
.!//! 0$%/00$!!#%**%*#+"0$!\Z0$!*01.5B.!,!(%*3/
1* !.0$!%),.!//%+*0$0/+)!,0%!*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%.!+2!.! ?3$%(!
1#!*!(!1(!.$ )1$)+.!,!//%)%/0%+10(++'+*,.+#*+/%/?/00%*#0$0
$!$ *!2!./!!*/%*#(!,0%!*0!+)%*#+),(!0!(5".!!+"/5),0+)/"0!.
*!,%/+ !+"/$%6+,$.!*%,/5$+/%/B
*[c`\?(%*%(/01 5OfI+10J\ZZP
+*.!+2!.5%*/$%6+,$.!*%3/,1(%/$! O%((*0?[c`\P? !"%*%*#.!+2!.5/
+)%*0%+*+"('+",+/%0%2!* *!#0%2!/5),0+)//3!((/I.!01.*0+
0$!$%#$!/0,.!)+.% (!2!(+""1*0%+*%*#JB%"0!!*,!.!*0+",0%!*0/%*0$!%.
/),(!"1("%((! 0$%/.%0!.%+*"0!."+((+3D1,,!.%+ +"0(!/0+*!5!.B*!
+0$!.+( !./01 5O!(#/+*?[ccZPO,0%!*0/.!.1%0! %*[c``D`a* //!//! %*
25
$>7'&8,*%'-,'%!&+,-!+
!"!.!*!/ +0%+*M/01 5 O$%0!!0
(B?\ZZcP
O'%*!*
!0
(B?\Z[ZP
O!*.5!0
(B?\Z[ZP
O%((!0
(B?\Z[\P
%)! !+2!.5M+10+)! .!+2!.5@
/,*
!"%*%0%+*
!),(+5)!*0?
+10+)!
*$!/0!.?
f[Zc [Z
U++.)!*0(
`]d
5!./ $!(0$* *+
3+.'?,++./+%( "1*0%+*%*#
[cd
U3+.'%*#00%)!
+"//!//)!*0
\]d
U3+.'(/05!.
^^d
U3+.'%*#)+.!
0$*_+"(/0[Z
5!./
%*(* f^`
[Z
!#0%2!
]cd
5!./ /5),0+)/
O[c``
%.0$
+$+.0P
!(+1.*!?
f`_[ a
Uh`Z
^\B[d
1/0.(%
5!./ U5),0+)
]`Bbd
O
P
.!)%//%+*
]ZB_d
U+%(.!+2!.5A
/+%(?/%(%2%*# 0/'/?* 3+.'?
O*5,% !),(+5)!*0?+.
/$++(h$("0%)!P \]B_d
U!)%//%+*e/+%(
.!+2!.5
1(%*?
.!(* f[\] [\
U!)%//%+*
`ZB\d
5!./ U
* !,!* !*0
^Zd
(%2%*#A
U),(+5)!*0
]ad
O$+1./
1*/,!%"%! P
26
[cbaP(/+.!,+.0! +*"1*0%+*(+10+)!B$!5+*(1 !+*[Za,0%!*0/3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%?"+((+3! 1,+2!.\Z5!./?0$0AI2!.$("+"0$!)*!2!.)..%! ?
]\d+"0$+/!3$+)..%! $ %2+.! * /%)%(.*1)!.$ (+/00$!
/1,,+.0+"0$!%.")%(%!/BJ
!+2!.5/+*!,0#%*! )+)!*01) 1.%*#0$!(0!.[cbZH/?* $/!!*
!/.%! /I !!,(5,!./+*(?1*%-1!,.+!//+"$*#%*#+*!H/00%01 !/?
2(1!/?"!!(%*#/?#+(/?/'%((/* M+..+(!/B
0%/35+"(%2%*#/0%/"5%*#?$+,!"1(?
* +*0.%10%*#(%"!!2!*3%0$(%)%00%+*/1/! 50$!%((*!//B!+2!.5
%*2+(2!/0$! !2!(+,)!*0+"*!3)!*%*#* ,1.,+/!%*+*!H/(%"!/+*!#.+3/
!5+* 0$!0/0.+,$%!""!0/+")!*0(%((*!//XO*0$+*5?[cc]PB
1.5.1 Studies on recovery
!+2!.5$/!!*+,!.0%+*(%6! %* %""!.%*#35/B*+2!.2%!3%/,.!/!*0! %*
0$!,,!* %4;,$
<7
*!.)*5?%0$/!!*//!//! 1/%*#0$!**$!%)
%/%(%05//!//)!*0$! 1(!O+00(!* !.!0(B?\Z[ZP? !.%20!+"0$!
%/%(%05//!//)!*0$! 1(!ODP//!//%*#?)+*#+0$!./?3+.'* /+%("1*0%+*%*#(/0)+*0$O(!*/'5!0(B?[cbZ@*!0(B?[cc`PB
*0$at
/01 5?+*(5[^d+"/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/Of`[P$ I*+/+%(%),%.)!*0J
O+00(!* !.!0(B?\ZZ]@+00(!* !.!0(B?\Z[Z@#!.!0(B?\ZZ^@+((!.!0(B?\Z[Z@
+((!.!0(B?\Z[ZP"0!.[_5!./B(.#!/01 5%*0$!1/! /(!((! !2!*/0!%*D(!%*D+(('/(! (!2!*/0!%*? [c``) +)%*! 3%0$0$!
0.1//D.,!*0!.(!O0.1//* .,!*0!.?[caaP?* !"%*! .!+2!.5/ one
5!.+"*+/5),0+)/?*+ )%//%+*/?*+,++./+%("1*0%+*%*#?(%2%*#
%* !,!* !*0(5?* 3+.'%*#$("0%)!+.)+.!O..+3* +!?\ZZ_PB+10
27
\Zd+",0%!*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%+./$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %#*+/!/0/01 5
%*(1/%+*?* ^Zd+",0%!*0/3%0$I+0$!.,/5$+/!/J%*(1 %*#""!0%2!
,/5$+/%/?"1("%((! 0$!/!.%0!.%"0!.[_5!./B10+"0$!0+0(#.+1,+"//!//! ,0%!*0/Of\a^P?^Zd$ $ 0(!/0+*!,!.%+ +".!+2!.5 1.%*#0$!"+((+3D
1,,!.%+ B*!)&+.,1(%0%+*O..%/+*!0(B?\ZZ[P".+)0$!(.#!?)1(0%D/%0!
*0!.*0%+*(01 5+"$%6+,$.!*%O
+P.!,+.0/.!+2!.5.0!/%*
%* 1/0.%(%/! +1*0.%!/+"[_d"0!.[_5!./?/! +*0$!(!1(!.(!+"
!+2!.5O/5),0+)/(/0)+*0$PO(!1(!.?[cabP* 0$!DB$%/%/%*
+*+. *!3%0$*+0$!.,1(%0%+*".+)0$%//01 5?(++'%*#01.+,!*
+1*0.%!/+*(5* 1/%*#0$!/)!)!/1.!)!*0/?* "%* %*#[^d+",0%!*0/
.!+2!.! "0!.[_5!./O%!./)!0(B?\ZZZPB
*/01 5?0$!%"!$.0
$! 1(!O1//!.!0(B?\ZZZP?)!/1.%*#"1*0%+*%*#* /5),0+)/+2!.0$!,/0
03+5!./?/$+3! 0$0[ad+"0.!0! %*% !*!+$+.0+"/$%6+,$.!*%
,0%!*0/3!.!%*I"1((.!+2!.5J"0!.)!*"+((+3D1,0%)!+"[]5!./O/+*!0
(B?[cc_PB)+.!"2+1.(!+10+)!3/"+1* %*1(#.%?3$!.!][d+"
I.!!*0+*/!0JO3%0$%*03+5!./,.%+.0+%*(1/%+*P/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/0[`
5!./"+((+3D1,?"+.0$!,/003+5!./$ $ *+,/5$+0%/5),0+)/?$ $!( &+?$ (%2! %* !,!* !*0(5* 3!.!)..%! +. %2+.! O*!2!0(B?[ccbPB
(/+?0$+1#$1/%*#1*/0* . %6! //!//)!*0/?0$!(.#!!.)+*0D/01 5%*0$!
$ )+.!"2+1.(!+10+)!/?/\`dO%*!P^adO!.)+*0P+"$.+*%
/$%6+,$.!*%/),(!I3+.'! %*/+)!,%05J"0!.]Z5!./O!%/0+!0
(B?[cc_PB
*/),(!+".!!*0(5/01 %! %*0$!?/5),0+)+10+)!
+. %*#0+I!*!.(.0%0%+*!.1!/0%+**%.!J3/I,++.J%*`]d+"/!/
"0!.[Z5!./?3$%(!\]d$ !!*!),(+5! O,.0D+."1((0%)!P0$!(/05!.
O$%0!!0(B?\ZZcPB*+0$!.(+*#D0!.)/01 5.0! \]B_d+",0%!*0//
.!+2!.! ? !"%*! /$2%*#/5),0+).!)%//%+** 1*%),%.! /+%(* 2+0%+*("1*0%+*%*#"0!./!2!*5!./O!*.5!0(B?\Z[ZPB*
* %*/01 51/! .!+2!.5)!/1.!+),+/%0!+"I+$+/,%0(%/0%+*(/0\5!./J?/+.!h
bZ?1(%05+"%"!(!/+.!hbZ?]+.$%#$!.O+*]D_/(!P+*/(!"+.K/+%(
28
"1*0%+*%*#?%* !,!* !*0(%2%*#?! 10%+** /+%(1. !*L* K(%*%(
(+(
),.!//%+*(!L* "+1* 0$0!03!!*]\d* ^`d+"0$!/01 %! [Z[/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/"1("%((! 0$!/!.%0!.%"0!.[Z5!./O$.%2/02!0
(B?\Z[ZPB
),(+5)!*0%/,.0+")+/0 !"%*%0%+*/+".!+2!.5B
*.!2%!3?.3$* +$*/+*"+1* 0$0+*(5[ZD\Zd+",0%!*0/3%0$$.+*%/$%6+,$.!*%?* []D
^]d+""%./0D!,%/+ !+",/5$+/%/,0%!*0/$ *5!),(+5)!*0O.3$* +$*/+*?\ZZ^PB%'!./+** +((!#1!/"+1* 0$0]`d+",0%!*0/$+/,%0(%6! 3%0$,/5$+0%/5),0+)/?+0$""!0%2!* *+*D""!0%2!?$ *+3+.'+./$++(
0%2%050((3%0$%*03+5!./+"%((*!//O%'!./+*!0(B?\ZZaPB$!
1*!),(+5)!*0.0!"+.D,0%!*0/%**+0$!./01 53/`_d"+.0$!)+*0$
,.%+.0+$+/,%0( )%//%+*O)/5!0(B?\Z[\PB
+.35$/(+31*!),(+5)!*0.0!/A\B]d%*\Z[\B$!* "%#1.!/"+.
0$!/)!5!..![ZdO.*#!_dD\`dP* ad?.!/,!0%2!(5?* .%/%*#/
.!/1(0+"0$!"%**%(.%/%/B
*+*0./0?+.3!#%* %/%(%05,!*/%+*.0!/.!
$%#$@+10[ZdB
*0$!??1/0.(%* 0$!0$!/!.0!/.!+10^D_dB
*\ZZZ?+.3!#%*/01 5,1(%/$! 1*!),(+5)!*0"%#1.!/+"/),(!+"a`
/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/O!((!!0(B?\ZZZPB!2!*5!./"0!. %#*+/%/ )%//%+*
0+*10!1*%0?c^d$ *+!),(+5)!*0* $ %/%(%05,!*/%+*+.+0$!.
%((*!//!*!"%0B%)%(.(5?(.#!.!#%/0!.D/! Of^`Z^P/01 5.!,+.0! I*+
%*+)!".+)!),(+5)!*0J%*c]d+"/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/O!((!* .73!?\ZZaPB
*/01 51/%*#
0?_cd0/0.0+"0.!0)!*0* `\d
0\D5!."+((+3D1, % *+0$2!!),(+5)!*0D/! %*+)!O* !.#!0
(B?\Z[[PB$%/%* %0!/0$0+10`Zd+",0%!*0/.!!%2!/+)!"+.)+"
%/%(%05,!*/%+*(.! 5"0!.03+5!./?* 0$%/"%#1.!/!!)/0+%*.!/!
1.%*#(+*#!.D0!.)"+((+3D1,O!((!!0(B?\ZZZPB!*!?+*!)5+*(1 !0$0
.0!/+"1*!),(+5)!*0.!2!.5$%#$)+*#,0%!*0/3%0$,/5$+/%/?!/,!%((5
29
+),.! 0+0$!#!*!.(,+,1(0%+*?(/+%*+.353$!.!1*!),(+5)!*0/!!)/
(+3B
1.6 Criteria of recovery
*)+/0/01 %!/?.!+2!.5%*+.,+.0!//+)!2!./%+*+"/5),0+)0%.!)%//%+*B
10+)!.!/!.$$/!!*$),!.! 5 %2!.#!*0.!)%//%+*.%0!.%?* %0$/
!!*/$+3*$+30$!/! %""!.!*!/5%!( %""!.!*0.!)%//%+*.0!/B*!/01 5
0!/0! 0$%/!4,(%%0(5?1/%*#"+1. %""!.!*0/!0/+".!)%//%+*.%0!.%A%0$* 3%0$+10*!#0%2!/5),0+)/%*
%0%+*0+,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/?* 0%)!/,*/+"]
* `)+*0$/+"/0(!.!)%//%+*B/%*#,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/+*(5* ])+*0$/H
/0(!.!)%//%+*?.0!+"c^d3/$%!2! %*/),(!+"[^[,0%!*0/B+.
`)+*0$/?0$%/.0!3/b^dB
*(1 %*#*!#0%2!/5),0+)//3!((?.!)%//%+*
.0!/ .+,,! 0+aZd* _`d"+.]* `)+*0$/?.!/,!0%2!(5O//% 5!0
(B?\Z[ZPB1.0$!.)+.!?*+0+*(5/5),0+)/%*(1 ! %*.%0!.%2.5?/+ +
//!//)!*0%*/0.1)!*0/1/! AO*!2!0(B?[ccb@..%/+*!0(B?\ZZ[@!*.5
!0(B?\Z[Z@/+*!0(B?[cc_P?O+((!.?\ZZ\P@O/+*!0(B?[cc`@
+((!.?\ZZ\P?O.!*#+!0(B?\ZZZP?* O*!2!0(B?[ccb@/+*!0
(B?[cc`@%!./)!0(B?\ZZZP!%*#)+*#0$!+*!/)+/0".!-1!*0(51/! B
1.0$!.)+.!?/),(!//01 %! $2!!!*$!0!.+#!*!+1//3!((?+*/%/0%*#+"
)%4+"$.+*%O!%/0+!0(B?[cc_@+ !/0%*!0(B?\ZZ]P?I.!!*0J+."%./0+*/!0
/$%6+,$.!*%O+00(!* !.!0(B?\ZZ]@*!2!0(B?[ccb@..%/+*!0(B?\ZZ[@
+,,!.* * !.(%*#?\ZZZ@1!0(B?\ZZ]@$.%2/02!0(B?\Z[ZP?
O!*.5!0(B?\Z[Z@'%*!*!0(B?\Z[Z@$%0!!0(B?\ZZcP?*+*D""!0%2!+*(5
O..+3!0(B?\ZZ_@+((!.?\ZZ\@0!,$!*/!0(B?[cca@%!./)!0(B?[ccb@
%!./)!0(B?\ZZZP@+.)%4! ""!0%2!* *+*D""!0%2!O.*!.+/!0(B?[cc\@
.*!.+/!0(B?[cbc@+((!.!0(B?\Z[Z@!*/0!%*!0(B?\ZZ\P/),(!/B+*#D
0!.)"+((+3D1,%*? !"%*! /h[Z5!./?%/..!?+*(50$.!!/01 %!/.!
30
.!,+.0! %*0$!(%0!.01.!O%((!0(B?\Z[\@'%*!*!0(B?\Z[Z@$%0!!0(B?\ZZcPB
/**/3!.0+0$!%//1!/+*!.*%*#('+"+),.%(%05* (.%05+"
.!)%//%+*.%0!.%*%*0!.*0%+*(3+.'#.+1,(! 5*5* .!/!** /1,,+.0! 50$! !2!(+,! /!0+".%0!.%B$!%)3/0$00$%/!
%),(!)!*0! %*.!/!.$%*0!.*0%+*((5B!/% !//%!*0%"%1/!"1(*!//?0$!
3+.'#.+1,(/+%)! "+.(%*%(%),.+2!)!*0B$!5.#1! 0$00$!1/!+"
/0* . %/! .%0!.%3%((I"%(%00!+),.%/+*/.+//0.!0)!*0/* ,+,1(0%+*/?* ,.+2% !0$!/%/"+.)+.!(!.(5"+.)1(0! #+(/* !4,!00%+*/"+.,0%!*0/?.!#%2!./* ")%(%!/JO* .!/!*!0(B?\ZZ_PB
1.0$!.)+.!?.!+#*%/%*#0$!%),+.0*!+"*!#0%2!/5),0+)/+*.!(0%+*0+
+10+)!?0$!.%0!.%%*(1 !/!2!.(*!#0%2!%0!)/".+)0$!B$!.%0!.%
.!/"+((+3/A+/+.!+"^O)+ !.0!P+.$%#$!."+.0$!,/0`)+*0$/+**5+"
0$!"+((+3%*#D%0!)/A[ !(1/%+*/?\ %/+.#*%6! 0$+1#$0?]
$((1%*0+.5!$2%+1.?[""!0%2!"(00!*%*#?^//%2!/+%(3%0$ .3(?`
('+"/,+*0*!%05?_%6..!,+/01.!?+.c1*1/1(0$+1#$0+*0!*0
O* .!/!*!0(B?\ZZ_PB//1$?+10+)!.!/!.$$/!!*,.+2% ! 3%0$*
//!//)!*00++(?/0* . 0%)!.%0!.%+*?* "%4! /!0+"/5),0+)/0+!
/+.! 3%0$"%4! 10D+""/+.!B$%/%/)&+.%),.+2!)!*0"+.0$!.!/!.$
"%!( B+3!2!.?0$!3+.'#.+1,(/+,+%*0! 0+0$!*!! +""1*0%+*()!/1.!/+"
+10+)!/3!((?0+)'!.!(!2*0* .!(%(!)!/1.!+".!+2!.5?/#++ +10+)!0'!/)+.!0$*/5),0+)+*0.+((+*!B
31
2. Duration of untreated psychosis and prevention
strategies
2.1 Duration of Untreated Psychosis (DUP)
+*/%/0/+"0$!!)!.#!*!+",/5$+0%/5),0+)/* 0$!/0.0+"0.!0)!*0?
* %/1/1((5 !"%*! /0$!0%)!%*3!!'/+.)+*0$/!03!!*0$!/!03+B
*
[c`\?/01 53/,1(%/$! %*0.+ 1%*#+*!,0((! I(!*#0$+"+*/!0+"/%4
)+*0$/+.(!//JB
03///+%0! 3%0$#++ +10+)!O%((*0?[c`\PB1.%*#0$!
(0![caZH/?0$!bZH/* 0$!!.(5cZH/?/!2!.(/01 %!//$+3! 0$0(+*#!.
1.0%+*+"%((*!//!"+.!+))!*!)!*0+"0.!0)!*03///+%0! 3%0$
,++.!.+10+)!O.+3!0(B?[cb`@!(#/+*?[ccZ@+* +?[caa@+!!(!0
(B?[cc\@+/.!((%?[cc^@%*!.!0(B?[cb`PB$!% !!)!.#! 0$0,!.$,/
%*0!.2!*%*#!.(%!.+1( ,.!2!*0/!2!.!,/5$+,0$+(+#5* $.+*%%05".+)
!2!(+,%*#B$%/3/(0!.3..*0! 503+)!0D*(5/!/+** +10+)!?
+*"%.)%*#0$!//+%0%+*!03!!*0$!03+O./$((!0(B?\ZZ_; !.'%*/ ! 0 (B?\ZZ_PB+0$$2!%* %0! 0$0%/)+.!/0.+*#(5//+%0! 3%0$(!2!(+"
*!#0%2!?0$*,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B.!!*0)!0D*(5/%//$+3! 0$!/)!
O++*/0.!0(B?\Z[\PB$!10$+./.#1!0$00$%/%/+*/%/0!*03%0$0$!*+0%+*
0$0%+(+#%( !0!.%+.0%+*?!4,.!//! /*!#0%2!/5),0+)/?)5!
)!(%+.0! 5!.(5 !0!0%+** 0.!0)!*0B
2.2 International DUP findings
$!!.(%!/0/01 %!/ %/1//%*#* !4,(%%0(5.!,+.0%*#+*/0!)".+)0$!(0!
[caZ/B*!+"0$!"%./0/01 %!/3/+* 10! %*$%*O+* +?[caaP?
32
,+%#**0(5/$/!!*"+1/)+/0(5%*0$!!/0!.*3+.( B!"%*%0%+*/* +,!.0%+*(%60%+*/ %""!.!03!!*/01 %!/B
*/+)!/01 %!/?/0.0+"0.!0)!*0
!-1(/0%)!+""%./0$+/,%0(%/0%+*?%*+0$!./%0%/)+.!/0.%*#!*0(5 !"%*! %*
0!.)/+")! %0%+** ,/5$+0$!.,5B
*0(!
,.+2% ! %*0$!,,!* %4?
/!2!.('*+3*(!*#0$/+".!,.!/!*0! (+*#3%0$(+0%+*?/01 5?
!"%*%0%+*?* /),(!/%6!OPB/%*#0$!/!.$3+. /%"$ %$"$
!#( ##*$"$$(*#) !"*!#( ##*$ $"$$** #) !" #$+*1! ?
"+1* ^\/01 %!/.!,+.0%*#I*01.(J?0$0
%/?2(1!/1*""!0! 5%*0!.2!*0%+*/)!*00+/$+.0!*%0B),(!/+*/%/0! +",0%!*0/3%0$ %#*+/!/%*0$!/$%6+,$.!*%D/,!0.1): /$%6+,$.!*%?
/$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %/+. !.?+./$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !.%"*+0+0$!.3%/!.!,+.0! ?
* .*#! %*/%6!".+)^\O))%*#!.!0(B?\ZZ\P0+ccbO+00(!* !.!0
(B?\ZZZPB%2!+"0$!^\/01 %!/,,(%! /0* . %/! %*0!.2%!3/,!%"%((5
.!//%*#0$!0%)%*#+"/5),0+)+*/!0@"+1.1/! 0$!
O
%*#0+*!0
(B?\ZZ^@"*!.!0(B?[cc]@+,'!* ##!./?\ZZ_@+3*/!* !0(B?\ZZ\P?* +*!1/! 0$!O!.'%*/!0(B?\ZZ^PB
*0$!/01 %!/3$!.!*+/0* . %/! %*/0.1)!*03/1/! ?3/!/0%)0! +*0$!/%/+"((/+1.!/+"
%*"+.)0%+*2%((!?%B!B%*0!.2%!3/3%0$,0%!*0/?%*0!.2%!3/3%0$.!(0%2!/?
,.0*!./+".!#%2!./?* )! %(.!+. /B!*2(1!/.*#! ".+)[^B_0+
[]ZB_3!!'/O!4!,0%*#+*!/01 5%*(1 %*#,0%!*0/%*0$!,.!D*!1.+(!,0%!.
* %*2!/0%#0%*#!40.!)!(5(+*#/O1((5!0(B?[ccaPP ? * )! %*2(1!/
".+)`0+^a3!!'/@0$1/?0$!2.%0%+*%//1/0*0%(B/0!.*+1*0.%!/O
* %?
%*#,+.!P%*0$!/!/01 %!/0!* +*"!2(1!0+$2!(+*#!.)! %*/?
$+3!2!.?(!.#!+#.,$%(,00!.*%/ %""%1(00+ !0!0/+0$0$!* !.)*5(/+$2!/),(!/3%0$2!.5(+*#/O"*!.!0(B?[cc\@+!0
(B?\ZZZ@%*!.!0(B?[cb`PB(+/!0++.35?0$!0.%(.!,+.0! )! %*
+"^_B_3!!'/%*/),(!.!!%2%*#/,!%(%/! !.(5,/5$+/%/0.!0)!*0?
* _]3!!'/%*0.!0)!*0/1/1(#.+1,O!0!./!*!0(B?\ZZ_PB$!(.#!/0
#.+1,+"D2(1!/(%!!03!!*[Z* ]Z3!!'/?* 0$!/$+.0!/0.!`3!!'/
33
O1/0.(%PO+..5!0(B?[cc`P* +10b3!!'/)! %*O??%*(* ?
,%*?* PO!%/!.!0(B?[cc]@((!0(B?\ZZ\@!.'%*/!0(B?\ZZ^@$%0!!0
(B?\ZZcPB$!(+*#!/0%/"+1* %*
* %?3%0$)! %*2(1!+"^a3!!'/%*+*!
/01 5* )! %*0+!"+1* !03!!*`* [_5!./O)! %*%/*+0.!,+.0! %.!0(5P%**+0$!.O$.%2/02!0(B?\Z[ZPB
2.3 Programmes to reduce DUP: Early Detection
.(5%*0!.2!*0%+**!2%!3! /$2%*#03+ %/0%*#1%/$(!!(!)!*0/A.(5?
,$/!D/,!%"%0.!0)!*0* !.(5 !0!0%+*O./$((* 0$+*!?\Z[[PB
!2!.(0.!0)!*0,.+#.))!/.+1* 0$!3+.( $2!/,!%(%/! %*0$!!.(5
,$/!D/,!%"%0.!0)!*0?#!*!.((53%0$+,0%)%/0%.!/1(0/O!.0!(/!*!0(B?\ZZb@
.%#!0(B?\ZZ^@'/+*!0(B?\ZZb@!*%+.!0(B?\ZZ[PB$!5.!*+00+!
+*"1/! 3%0$!.(5 !0!0%+*,.+#.))!/B$!/!3!.!.!!*0(5.!2%!3! 5
(+5 D2*/!0B(O(+5 D2*/!0(B?\Z[[PB$!5"+1* !%#$0,.+#.))!/0$0"%0
0$! !"%*! .%0!.%+"!%*#I !/%#*! 0+!*$*!0$!% !*0%"%0%+** ,.+),0
0.!0)!*0+",!+,(!3%0$"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/JA$!%)%*#$).(5
!0!0%+*
*1*00! ,/5$+/%/.%(O
PO!/0!.!0(B?\ZZcP* $!
)!0$.(5*/!0%*,/5$+/%/0.%(OPO+3!.!0(B?\ZZaP%*0$!*%0! %*# +)?O!*3%'!0(B?\ZZbP%*
.!(* ?.(5/5$+/%/.!2!*0%+*
* *0!.2!*0%+*!*0.!O
P[* \O+..5!0(B?[cc`PO1*#!0(B?\ZZ]P
O./0!2!0(B?\ZZ^P%*1/0.(%?.(5/5$+/%/
*0!.2!*0%+*.+#.))!O
P
%*%*#,+.!O$+*#!0(B?\ZZ_P?.(5/!
!*0%"%0%+*.+#.)O
PO((
!0(B?\ZZ_P%** ?* 0$!!.(5.!0)!*0* *0!.2!*0%+*%*5$+/%/
O
P%*+.35O+$**!//!*!0(B?\ZZ[P?".+)3$%$0$%/ %//!.00%+*/0!)/B
?* ((,.+2% ! %*"+.)0%+*0+#!*!.(,.0%0%+*!./
O/P+*(5B
[1* !.0++'I1*/,!%"%*!03+.'%*#* +))1*%05! 10%+*J
* +.#*%/! *!.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*0!)0+$!(, !0!0/!/%*0$!$!(0$.!
34
/5/0!)B
\3/)+.!!40!*/%2!@%*0$%/,.+&!00$!.!3!.!)+%(!
//!//)!*00!)/?! 10%+*(/!//%+*/%*/$++(/?* %*"+.)0%+*"+.* %*0!.0%+*3%0$/B$%/,,.+$(+5 D2*/((! I)1(0%D"+1/JB$!/)!
)1(0%D"+1/,,.+$3/1/! %*
* ?/3!((/
B
*,$??
.!/1(0/+"0$!/!,.+#.))!/.! %/,(5! B
*
?0$!.!3/? !/,%0!+"*+/%#*%"%*0.! 10%+*+"+2!.((?
/%#*%"%*0 !.!/!+" !(5%*0%)!".+)/!!'%*#$!(,0+.!$%*#!.(5
%*0!.2!*0%+*//!.2%!/?+.?$!(0$/5/0!) !(5/B$!/)!0!* !*53/"+1* %*
B+0$0$%/* 3!.!,.+#.))!/"+.H/)%*(5B
\%*
1/0.(%% !*0%"%! /+)!,0%!*0/3%0$*!40.!)!(5(+*#Oh[ZZZ 5/P* )*#! 0+.! 1!)% D.*#!B
*
?*%*.!/!+",0%!*0/3%0$
.!(0%2!(5/$+.0Og[\3!!'/P+1( !+/!.2! ?(+*#3%0$*%*.!/!+"
,0%!*0/3%0$h[5!.?/3!((B
* 3!.!0$!)+/0
+),.!$!*/%2!,.+#.))!/?* 0$!+*!/5%!( %*#0$!)+/0"2+1.(!.!/1(0/B
*/1)?.!2%!3%*#0$!(%0!.01.!.!2!(/2.%0%+*!03!!*+*0!*0* %*0!*/%05
+",.+#.))!/?(!*#0$+",.+#.))!/?/),(!/%6!/? !"%*%0%+*/* //!//)!*0/
+"?* 2(1!/B+3!2!.?/+)!"0+.//!!)0+%*"(1!*!.+//
/01 %!/* +1*0.%!/B
35
$?78*-,!'&(*'*%%+5%&&%!&7
.+#.))!
M 1.0%+*
*%0! %*# +)
\a)+*0$/
\ZZ]D\ZZ_
(1/0!.
.* +)%6! 0.%(O+3!.!0
(B?\ZZaP
!"%*%0%+*
J$!0%)!".+)0$!
0.*/%0%+*0+,/5$+/%/H
O1*.!)%00%*#,/5$+0%
/5),0+)/"+.[3!!'P
0+0$!+))!*!)!*0
+**0%,/5$+0%
)! %0%+*O#.!0!.
0$*_Zd0.!0)!*0
$!.!*!"+.
)%*%)1)+"[)+*0$PB
J$!0%)!%*0!.2(
*%0! !03!!*0$!+*/!0+"
%*# +)
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/
]Z)+*0$/
* 0$!%*%0%0%+*+"
\ZZ]D\ZZ` 0.!0)!*03%0$
0.0%"%! *!1.+(!,0%
(1/0!.
)! %0%+*?* .* +)%6! (1(0! +. %*#0+
0.%(O!/0!.!0
/0.%*#!*0,.+0++(
(B?\ZZcP
,0! ".+).%0!.%
!2!(+,! 5./!*$
BJO/!+"!%/!.
%*0!.2%!3P
I%)!".+)+*/!0+"
[
1/0.(% ,/5$+/%/0+$+/,%0(
b)+*0$/[cc] )%//%+*J
.!D,+/0
)0$! +*0.+(-1/%D
!4,!.%)!*0(
!/%#*
O+..5!0
(B?[cc`PM
.((!(
+),.%/+*
#.+1,O1*#!0
(B?\ZZ]P
J$!(!*#0$+"0%)!
\
1/0.(% !03!!*0$!+*/!0+"
,/5$+/%/* 0$!
[\)+*0$/
[cc`D[cca +))!*!)!*0+"
0.!0)!*0BJ
1/%D
!4,!.%)!*0(
,.((!(
!/%#*O./0!2
!0(B?\ZZ^P
* J$!,!.%+ !03!!*
O((!0
0$!0%)!+"+*/!0+"
(B?\ZZ_P ,/5$+0%/5),0+)/
\`)+*0$/
+*0%#1+1/3%0$0$!
.!D+.
+*0.+(
00%/0%(
/%#*%"%*!
!*cbB^
3!!'/O
\]ZP
! %*A&',
*('*,
+/0D+.
!4,!.%)!*0(
!*A_ZB\
3!!'/
O[^aBaP
! %*A>=7>
3!!'/
*#!A
Z3!!'/N\^
5!./
[[]
b]
!*A\]\B\
5/
O\cZBZP
! %*Aa[BZ
5/O,,.+4B
>=3!!'/P
!*A\^aB[
5/O
^_^B\P! %*A
_`B` 5/
O,,.+4BE
3!!'/P
BB
[Z\
M_]
!*A\]`B`
5/
OaZ\B\P
! %*A]Z
5/O,,.+4B
A3!!'/P
!*A^`c
5/
Oc_]P
! %*Ac\
5/O,,.+4B
>@3!!'/P
BB
!*A[c[B^
5/
O^b]B`P
! %*A_\ 5/
O,,.+4BD
3!!'/P
cb
!*A\_^B^
5/O
]acBaP
! %*A[Z^B_
5/O,,.+4B
>B3!!'/P
!*A][]Bb
BB
O__bB`P
! %*A_c
5/O,,.+4BE
3!!'/P
[bb
! %*A?>7F
3!!'/
! %*A?A7@
3!!'/P
BB
BB
36
\ZZZD\ZZ\
1/%D
!4,!.%)!*0(
$%/0+.%(
+*0.+( !/%#*
%*#,+.!
\^)+*0$/
\ZZ[D
\ZZ]O$+*#!0
(B?\ZZ_P
,.!/!*0%*#!,%/+ !?
,(1/*5,.!2%+1/
!,%/+ !/+",/5$+0%
/5),0+)/?0+0$!0%)!
+" !-10!0.!0)!*0
3%0$*0%,/5$+0%/BJ
O/! P
J$!0%)!!03!!*0$!
+*/!0+",/5$+0%
/5),0+)/O%B!B
$((1%*0%+*/?
!(1/%+*/?* M+.
0$+1#$0 %/+. !.+.
%/+.#*%6! !$2%+1.P* 0$!
0%)!3$!* !"%*%0%2!
%#*+/%/* 0.!0)!*03!.!
!/0(%/$! BJ
I%)!".+)/+.!+"^
+.$%#$!.+*0(!/0
+*!,+/%0%2!
/1/(!%0!)?
0$.+1#$+100$! 5"+.
/!2!.( 5/+./!2!.(
5/3!!'0+
%*%0%0%+*+" !-10!
0.!0)!*0O !"%*! PBJ
]b^
!*A]\
)+*0$/
O_cB]P
! %*A[\
)+*0$/
O,,.+4BB?
3!!'/P
*#!AZB[D
]]`)+*0$/
,gBZZ\
!*A[]B]
)+*0$/O\`P
! %*A
^)+*0$/
O,,.+4B>D
3!!'/P
*#!AZD\^Z
)+*0$/
^]M !*A[[^B\
! %*AB
,gBZZ]
+.35
3!!'/O
3!!'/*#!A
^b)+*0$/
[a]B`P
ZD[[c`3!!'/
[ccaD\ZZZ
\b[ ! %*A?C
1/%D
3!!'/
!4,!.%)!*0(
! %*A>C
!/%#*3%0$
3!!'/
$%/0+.%(* *#!AZDc``
,.((!(+*0.+(
3!!'/
O!((!!0
(B?\ZZ^P
[$!.!,+//%(!?)! %* 1.0%+*/+".!.!,+.0! %*3!!'/* ,.%*0! %*+( ?"+..! %(%05
* !*$*!)!*0+"-1%'+2!.2%!3B*#!* /0* . !2%0%+*/.!+*(5.!,+.0! 3$!*
,.+2% ! %*0$!+.%#%*(,,!.B
37
2.4 Factors influencing DUP
(+*#%* %0!/0.!0)!*0 !(5?* /!2!.("0+./+*0.%10%*#$2!!!*
/1##!/0! ".+)/01 5"%* %*#/B('+"%*/%#$0%*0+*!! "+.0.!0)!*0+*0$!
$* +"0$!,0%!*0@00%01 !/+"")%(%!/0+3. //5),0+)/* )!*0($!(0$
.!@('+"/'%((/.!+#*%/%*#,/5$+/%/+*0$!$* +"$!(0$.!+0$/,!%(%/0
* #!*!.(?* /+%(3%0$ .3(* ,++./+%(*!03+.'$2!!!*.!,+.0! %*0$!
D/01 5+"3$%$0$%/ %//!.00%+*%/,.0O./!*!0(B?[cc`PB
*(0!.5!./?0$!%//1!+" !(5/%*0$!/+D((! I,0$35/0+.!J$2!!!*
/01 %! %*.!/%*#(5%*0!*/%2!(5* /5/0!)0%((5B-1(%00%2!/01 5+"
,0$35/0+.!%*".%*)!.%*")%(%!/"+1* "+1.)%*0$!)!/ !(5%*#
$!(,D/!!'%*#AO%P/+%!05W/!(%!"/+10)!*0(%((*!//!/@O%%P")%(%!/W!(%!"/
+10)!*0(%((*!//!/@O%%%P"!.+"0$!(!(+")!*0(%((*!//@* O%2P.%/! 0$.!/$+( "+.0$!%*%0%0%+*+"0.!0)!*0O.*6!0(B?\Z[ZPB
0/!!)/".+)+0$!.
/01 %!/0$00$!/)!)!$*%/)/+,!.0!%*J3$%0!J1(01.!/O*/'*!*!0
(B?\Z[[PB!.!%2! /0%#)+10,/5$+/%/,,!./0+,(5.+(!+0$.!#. %*#
!(%!"/+0$+10/5),0+)/* )!*0($!(0$.!B1""!.!./)5!".% 0$0
0$!5.!J.65J?0$00$!53%((!.!&!0! 50$!%.,!!./?* 2+% "!.! +*".+*00%+*3%0$$!(0$.!B(/+?)!*0($!(0$.!..%!/0$!/0%#)+"
J%*&!0%+*/* /!0%+*/JO%B!B+),(1/+.5 !0%*P?* ,0%!*0/!%*#J,1035J
"+.(+*#0%)!1/%*#$!/%0*5%*/!!'%*#0.!0)!*0B)%(%!/.!(%'!(50+
00.%10!,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/* !$2%+1.( %/01.*!/0+J +(!/!*0
.!!((%+*J* 0+*+0.!+#*%/!*!#0%2!/5),0+)/O!.#*!.!0(B?\ZZbPB
1.0$!.)+.!?,++.,.!)+.% &1/0)!*0* %*/% %+1/+*/!0(/+/!!)
//+%0! 3%0$(+*#B*+2%+1/ !(%*!%*"1*0%+*%*#,.+),0/$!(,D
/!!'%*#)1$)+.!0$*)+.!0.%0D(%'!"%(1.!0+)!!0 &1/0)!*0/0* . /B
38
+3!2!.?/!2!.(/01 %!/,+%*00+ !(5! .!/,+*/!".+)$!(0$.!(/+
+*0.%10%*#0+(+*#BH((#$*!0B("+1* 0$00$!.!3/*!2!*/,(%0
!03!!*J$!(,D/!!'%*# !(5/J* J$!(0$/5/0!) !(5/JOW((#$*!0
(B?\Z[ZPB+),0+*!0(*!0(5/1)1,,.!2%+1/"%* %*#/.!#. %*#$!(,D/!!'%*#
!(5/A!2!(+"")%(5%*2+(2!)!*0%*$!(,D/!!'%*#?/!*!+"")%(5$%/0+.5+"
,/5$+/%/?(+3!.(!2!(/+"3.!*!//* '*+3(! #!+")!*0(%((*!//?0!* !*5
0+3. / !*%(+")!*0(%((*!///!4%/0%*#?(+3!.%(%05+"0+(!.*!* +,%*#?* ,++.!.")%(5/0.!*#0$/((,+0!*0%((5)5+/0.100$!,0$35/0+
.!O+),0+*!0(B?\ZZ^PB*0$!/% !+"$!(0$D/5/0!) !(5/?J3%0* /!!JD
00%01 !,.!/!*0! 5)5 !(50.!0)!*0O*/'*!*!0(B?\Z[[PB*!
/01 5"+1* *2!.#!+"0$.!!"%./0(%*!$!(0$.!+*/1(00%+*/!"+.!"%./0
+*003%0$)!*0($!(0$.!O0!!(!0(B?\ZZ`PB100$!*?1*"+.01*0!(5?
.!$%*#)!*0($!(0$.!%/(/+*+#1.*0!!"+.-1%'$!(,B
*.!!*0/01 5
5./$((!0(B?%03/+*(1 ! 0$0.!!%2%*#0.!0)!*0%*5+10$* +(!/!*0)!*0($!(0$.!3///+%0! 3%0$(+*#O./$((?,!./+*(
+))1*%0%+*?0+!.\Z[\PB* !./+*!0(,.!/!*0.!2%!3+"]Z/01 %!/
O* !./+*!0(B?\Z[ZP%*0+O)+*#+0$!."0+./P$!(0$/5/0!) !(5/B$!5
"+1* /+)! %""!.!*!/!03!!*+1*0.%!/B
*1.+,!* * ?"%./0+*00
3%0$*+*D,$5/%%*/!!)! 0+ !(50.!0)!*0"+.,/5$+/%/B1.0$!.)+.!?
,.%20!,/5$%0.%/0/* ,/5$+(+#%/03!.!)+*#0$!3+./0I0.!0)!*0D
!(5!./J+0$%*1.+,!?* ?* $%*B
*0$!?$+3!2!.?#!*!.(
,.0%0%+*!./0!* ! 0+,+/0,+*!.!"!..(/+./0.0+"*0%D,/5$+0%0.!0)!*0/B
*%*#,+.!?%001.*! +10,0%!*0)%#$0/3!((#+0+I$!(!.J/0+$!(0$
,.+"!//%+*(@0.!0)!*0 !(5/3!.!!-1(D* /1/0*0%(B$""*!.!0(
+*(1 !0$0AI%*!*!#0%2!"0+./%*,0$35/D0+D.!%*2+(2!"!01.!/+*((
.!(!2*0(!2!(/O,0%!*0?/+%(!*2%.+*)!*0* $!(0$D.!/5/0!)P?*
+,0%)%/0%+*+",0$35/D0+D.!3%((.!-1%.!0$!%*0!#.0%+*+"/!.2%!/* +*0%*1+1/3.!*!//,.+#.))!/0.#!0%*#0$!#!*!.(,+,1(0%+** )!*0(
$!(0$D.!,.+"!//%+*(/BJO$""*!.!0(B?\Z[\PB
39
*/1)?0$!"+((+3%*#"0+./,.+(+*#%*#$2!!!*/1##!/0! A'+"
'*+3(! #!?/0%#)?/+%(3%0$ .3(?,++./+%(*!03+.'?,++.,.!)+.% "1*0%+*%*#?* %*/% %+1/+*/!0?* !(5! $!(0$/5/0!).!/,+*/!B%*((5?
.!!*0,,!.,.!/!*0/ 0+*+2!.0%)!?%* %0%*#0!),+.(/0%(%05
O'/+*!0(B?\ZZbPB
2.5 Prevention strategies in psychosis
2.5.1 Primary prevention
.%).5,.!2!*0%+*+"*5 %/!/!+.%((*!//O %/!/!)!*%*#+.#*%
5/"1*0%+** %((*!//.!"!..%*#0+/1&!0%2!+),(%*0P%/%)! 0.! 1%*#
%*% !*!5!(%)%*0%*#.%/'B!/,%0!/+)!(1!//0+0$!%+(+#%(* !*2%.+*)!*0("0+./+*0.%10%*#0+,/5$+/%/?,.!/!*00%)!1* !./0* %*#+"
,/5$+/%/.%/'"0+./ +!/*+05!03..*0,.%).5,.!2!*0%+*B.+,+/! %+(+#%("0+.//+".%*(1 !)0!.*(%*"(1!*6 1.%*#,.!#**5O! *%'!0
(B?[cbbP? 2*! ,.!*0(#!O0$!/+*!0(B?\Z[[P?+/0!0.%+),(%0%+*/
O**+*!0(B?\ZZ\P?!..*0*!1.+ !2!(+,)!*0(,.+!//!/ 1.%*#,1!.05
O(/$** !*0+*?[cc]P.!/1(0%*#%* %)%*%/$! *!1.(+**!0%2%05* 0+0(2+(1)!+"#.!5)00!.%*0$!.%*O$*!0(B?\ZZ\@$*!0(B?\ZZ\@
!%/%?[ccc@((%/+*D.%#$0* 1(()+.!?\ZZc@%)!0(B?[cc`@*0!(%/!0
(B?\ZZ]P?* 2!*0.%1(.!*(.#!)!*0O+.!0(B?\Z[[@*0!(%/!0(B?\ZZ_@
$!*0+*!0(B?\ZZ[@1*!0(B?\ZZc@. !0(B?[cc`@++ .1""!0(B?[cc_PB
*2%.+*)!*0("0+./%*(1 !(%2%*#%* !*/!1.*!*2%.+*)!*0/O!3%/!0
(B?[cc\@! !./!** +.0!*/!*?\ZZ[@,13!** */?\ZZ`@//+/!0
(B?\Z[\P)%#.0%+*O*0+.D.!* !(0!*?\ZZ_P?)%#.0%+** !(+*#%*#0+
)%*+.%05#.+1,O!(%*#!0(B?\Z[[P?/1/0*!1/!O((#$*!0(B?\Z[\P?
40
,/5$+(+#%(0.1)O$"!.* %/$!.?\Z[[P+.I!.(5 2!./%05JO0/0!.!0
(B?\Z[\PB/0.!//D.!0%2%05/,0$350+,/5$+/%/$/!!*,+/01(0! O5%*D!.)!5/* 2*/?\ZZaPB+3!2!.?*+*!+""0+./+2!$2!0$!
/,!%"%%05*!! ! "+.0$!,.%).5,.!2!*0%+*+",/5$+/%/B
2.5.2 Secondary prevention
!+* .5,.!2!*0%+*%/%)! 0.! 1%*#,.!2(!*!5,.!2!*0%*#$.+*%%05B
.(5 !0!0%+** %*0!.2!*0%+*%*,/5$+/%/%/%*,.0"+.)+"/!+* .5
,.!2!*0%+*?3$%$%/!/01* !./0++ 3$!*2%!3! 3%0$%*0$!".)!3+.'+"*5
%/!/!?+.%((*!//? !2!(+,%*#%*/0#!/B
!-*>6 ( ++'.$'(%&,'(+1 '+!+O./!*!0(B?[ccbP
%./0?0$!.!%/,.!)+.% ,$/!O!-*><B1*0%+*( !0!.%+.0%+*!4,.!//! / !0!.%+.0%*#,.!)+.% "1*0%+*%*#%*0$%/,$/!%///+%0! 3%0$,++.
+10+)!?* 0$1/%/,.+(5.!(0! 0+/+)!%((*!//,.+!//(.! 50,(5B
41
!+* ?0$!.!%/%((*!//+*/!0?).'! 50$!!)!.#!*!+"*+*D/,!%"%
,/5$+(+#%(,.+(!)/* ,/5$%0.%/%#*/* /5),0+)/B
*,/5$+/%/?0$%/
,$/!%/+"0!*(!((! I0$!,.+ .+)(,$/!JB$!/!03+,$/!/3+1( !0$!
0.#!0/"+.,.%).5,.!2!*0%+*B$%. +)!/0$!+*/!0+",/5$+0%/5),0+)/B
$%/,$/!%/0$!0.#!0+"/!+* .5,.!2!*0%+** %/%)! 0,.+2% %*#
0.!0)!*0/!""!0%2!(5* !.(5/,+//%(!?0+..!/0 %/!/!,.+!//* *!#0%2!+*/!-1!*!/"+..!)%//%+** .!+2!.5B
2.5.3 Tertiary prevention
1/!-1!*0,$/!/+*!.*+10+)!%*0!.)/+",!.)*!*0 )#!* "1*0%+*($* %,/B.!2!*0%2!!""+.0/$!.!.!%)! 0$.).! 10%+** .!((! 0!.0%.5,.!2!*0%+*?* .!*+00$!"+1/+"0$%//01 5B
2.5.4 Universal, selective, and indicated prevention
+3/!+* .5,.!2!*0%+*)5!$%!2! *! !/.%! 3%0$%**+0$!.
+*!,01(".)!3+.'B$%/".)!3+.'(//%"%!/,.!2!*0%2!,,.+$!/5
0.#!0,+,1(0%+*B$!5.!/"+((+3/A[P0$!#!*!.(,+,1(0%+*A*%2!./(
,.!2!*0%+*?\P0D.%/',+,1(0%+*A!(!0%2!,.!2!*0%+*?* ]P,+,1(0%+*/3%0$
)%*%)((!2!(/+"/5),0+)/A
* %0! ,.!2!*0%+*O+. +*?[cbaPB
*1*%2!./(
,.!2!*0%+*?3$+(!,+,1(0%+*%/+""!.! %*"+.)0%+** /'%((/*!! ! 0+
,.!2!*0!.0%* %/!/!+.%((*!//B
*/!(!0%2!,.!2!*0%+*?,+,1(0%+*/3$+/!
.%/'%/!(!20! .!
.!//! ?+*0$!/%/+"'*+3*.%/'"0+./%*2+(2%*#?"+.
%*/0*!?#!?#!* !.?+.!*2%.+*)!*0B
* %0! ,.!2!*0%+*%*2+(2!//.!!*%*#
"+.!.(5/%#*/+" %/!/!+.%((*!//B
42
2.6 Reducing DUP: Combining different levels of prevention
.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/+1( !2%!3! +)%*%*#1*%2!./(?/!(!0%2!/
3!((/%* %0! ,.!2!*0%+*+*0$!+*!* /!+* .5,.!2!*0%+*+*0$!+0$!.
$* B
*"+.)0%+*+10,/5$+/%/?)!*00+,.+),0-1%'$!(,/!!'%*#%*0$!
#!*!.(,+,1(0%+*?%/1*%2!./(,,.+$B
*"+.)0%+*,.+2% ! 0+/!*%+.$%#$
/$++(* +((!#!/01 !*0/* 0!$!./%//!(!0%2!,.!2!*0%+*?!1/!%0%/
%)! 0!.0%*,+,1(0%+*/! +*#!?$+%!%*01.*/! +*0$!"00$0
,/5$+/%/%*% !*!,!'/00$%/#!B//!//%*#/%#*/* /5),0+)/?* .!(5%*#0.!0)!*0?0*!.(%!.0%)!0$*$!D+.$!./!("3+1( $2!/+1#$0$!(,
%/%* %0! ,.!2!*0%+*B
43
3. Objectives, hypotheses and methods
3.1 Objectives and research questions
$!!.(5.!0)!*0* *0!.2!*0%+*%*5$+/%/O
P/01 5,,(%!/*.(5
!0!0%+*OP,.+#.))!0+.! 1!* /01 5!""!0/+*,0%!*0+10+)!/B
$!D,.+#.))!?+*/%/0%*#+"!.(5 !0!0%+*0!)/* !40!*/%2!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/?3/"%./00%2!%*0$!0%)!,!.%+ +"[ccaD\ZZZB3/
.! 1! ".+)\`0+^B_3!!'/)! %*B
0+*"!..! 2*0#!/"+.*!#0%2!?
+#*%0%2!* !,.!//%2!/5),0+)/0[?\* _5!./"+((+3D1,B$!,.+#.))!
3/+*0%*1! !5+* 0$!%*%0%(,.+&!0%*)+ %"%! "+.)/"+.+2!.[]5!./B
03+D5!.,!.%+ 3%0$+10%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/(! 0+*%*.!/!+"O+!0
(B?\ZZbPB+*#%01 %*(!""!0/+"0$!,.+#.))!?+** +*,0%!*0
+10+)!/?.!$+3!2!./0%((1*'*+3*B
*0$%//01 5?0$!2%%//%01 !/+"3!.!
0.'! +2!.0+0(+"[b5!./O[cc]D\Z[ZP3%0$ %""!.%*#!""+.0/B!+* ?
%""!.!*!/%*/5),0+)(!2!(/* .!+2!.50[Z5!./!03!!**.!3%0$O
.!P?* *.!3%0$+10O+.!P.!%*2!/0%#0! B!+2!.5%/!*0.(
+*!,0!1/!+"%0/.!(D(%"!.!(!2*!* $1)** /+%!0(!*!"%0/B!/1(0/
)5(.%"50+3$0!40!*0* !.!/!$*!/+",++.(+*#D0!.)+10+)!B
$%. ?*+03%0$/0* %*#,+//%(!D!""!0?0$!.!3%((!*!! "+.!*$*! '*+3(! #!+"/,!%"%,0%!*0#.+1,/0.%/'"+.,++./5),0+)+10+)!!2!*
3%0$%**D,.+#.))!?/3!((/*!! "+.'*+3(! #!+"/,!%"%0.#!0/"+.
!.(50.!0)!*0"0!.$2%*# !0!0! ,0%!*0/!.(5B1$'*+3(! #!)5(/+
$!(,%),.+2!(+*#D0!.)+10+)!B
44
3.2 Hypotheses
• .!)%*/0/0(!(+3(!2!( 1.%*#,!.%+ /3%0$"1((D,.+#.))!
• %///+%0! 3%0$%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
• /5),0+) 2*0#!/".+)%*(1/%+*?+*!?03+?* "%2!5!."+((+3D1,
.!)%*0%*! 00$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,
• $!D.!$/$%#$!..0!/+".!+2!.500!*D5!."+((+3D1,
• !*D5!.*+*D.!)%//%+*%/,.! %0! 5A
B ++.!.,.!)+.% "1*0%+*
B +*#!.
B %#$!./5),0+)(!2!(/0%*(1/%+*
B +*#!.0%)!%*,/5$+/%/ 1.%*#%*%0%(5!./+"0.!0)!*0
*
%0%+*?/%*#(!/5),0+)/3!.!%*2!/0%#0! "+./%#*%"%*0,.! %0%2!2(1!+"
,++.+10+)!?* %""!.!*!/%*0.!0)!*0+*0.%10%*#0+ 1.0%+*+",/5$+/%/
"0!./01 5%*(1/%+*%*0$!* +D.!!4)%*! B
3.3 Methods
3.3.1 Design
Longitudinal DUP study
+%*2!/0%#0!+2!.0%)!?*01.(%/0%(+*#D0!.) !/%#*+2!.[b5!./3/
,,(%! ?/01 5%*#0$!.!+*(5B
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/3!.!%*0.+ 1! O
[P?0!.)%*0! O
\P* .!D%*0.+ 1! O
]* ^P 1.%*#0$!
/01 5,!.%+ B4!,0"+.[cc]D[cc^O,%(+0,$/!P? !0!0%+*0!)/3!.!
+,!.0%+*(0$.+1#$+100$!3$+(!/01 5B+"%(%00!+),.%(%05?((/01 5
,$/!/3!.! %2% ! %*0+!-1(03+D5!.,!.%+ /?!4!,0
\?3$%$/0.0! %*
45
\ZZ\* /0.!0$! %*0+0$!"%./0/%4)+*0$/+"\ZZ^?
%*#1,0+\?_5!./B
Ten-year ED-NoED comparison
*2!/0%#0%*#D++10+)! %""!.!*!/?3!1/! -1/%D!4,!.%)!*0(
!/%#*B+1.* %*2%*$!(0$.!/!0+./,.0%%,0! B3+/!0+./%*
+#(* +1*05?+.35?) !1,0$!.!O,+,1(0%+*,,.+4%)0!(5]aZ
ZZZPB((!2(!(0$.!!0+.%*/(++1*05?+.35?* +/'%( !+1*05?
!*).'?0$!+.!O+)%*! ,+,1(0%+*,,.+4%)0!(5\c_ZZZPB$!
.!/3!.!/%)%(.%*0!.)/+"/+%+ !)+#.,$%($.0!.%/0%/O1.*%%05?
)!*! 10%+*(* %*+)!(!2!(P* +,,+.01*%0%!/"+.!),(+5)!*0O!((!!0
(B?\ZZbPB
*((/%0!/$!(0$.!/!.2%!/3!.!0$)!*0.!/! * ,1(%(5
"1* ! B$!!#%+*(+))%00!!"+.!/!.$0$%/!(0$!#%+*/0?+.35
OY[B\ZZaB\[aaP?0$!!#%+*(+))%00!!"+.%!*!0$%/!#%+*!(* ?
!*).'OY[DZ[Db]DZZZ\DZaP?* 0$!!#%+*(+))%00!!"+.!/!.$0$%/
!(0$!#%+*!/0?+.35OYDZbZ[ZP,,.+2! 0$%//01 5B
Ten-year prediction of non-remission
+.0$!% !*0%"%0%+*+",0%!*0$.0!.%/0%///+%0! 3%0$$%#$.%/'+",++.
+10+)!%*0!.)/+"*+*D.!)%//%+*%*/,%0!+"?*01.(%/0%,.+/,!0%2!
!/%#*3/!),(+5! B$!/),(!/01 %! 3/% !*0%(3%0$0$!D+
+),.%/+*/),(!B3/%*2!/0%#0! /+*!+"+0$!.,+//%(!,.! %0%2!
"0+./B
3.3.2 Participants
$!/),(!"+.0$!(+*#%01 %*(D/01 53/.!.1%0! %*0$!D.!+*(5
Of`Z\PB!1/!*+(%*%( 0!4!,0* %#*+/0%0!#+.53!.!
46
+((!0! ?%0%*(1 ! ,0%!*0/0$0 % *+0#%2!%*"+.)! +*/!*00+,.0%%,0!%*
0$!+),.%/+*/01 5B
^).'! 0.*/%0%+*".+)!4(1 %*#0+%*(1 %*#
/1/0*!D%* 1! ,/5$+/%/B$%/%),(%! /(%#$0!4,*/%+*+""+1/%*0$!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/B+3!2!.?0$!,0%!*0/3%0$ %#*+/%/+"/1/0*!D
%* 1! ,/5$+/%/3!.!*+0%*(1 ! %*0$! 0,.!/!*0! $!.!?%*+. !.0+
/!1.!+),.%(%05.+//0%)!,!.%+ /B
$@+10(%*!//01 5,!.%+ /
[0$.+1#$
^?/),(!//%6!/?* !/0%)0!/+"0.!0! %*% !*!,!.[ZZZZ"+.0$!/01 5B
$@7%($+!2+&,*,!&!&5(!$',( +, *'- A7
$/!
!./
!.(50.!0! .(5 !0!0%+*!""+.0
%*% !*!?
)!*
,.B[ZZZZ
%(+0,$/!
[cc]D[cc^
^^
D
+*!
[
[ccaD[ccb
b`
[Bc
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
,(1/ !0!0%+*0!)
[
[cccD\ZZZ
`Z
[B]
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
,(1/ !0!0%+*0!)
\
\ZZ\D&1*!\ZZ^
[[_
[Bc
!0!0%+*0!)+*(5
]
\ZZ_D\ZZ`
c_
[Bc
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
,(1/ !0!0%+*0!)
^
\ZZaD\ZZb
[Zb
\B[
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
,(1/ !0!0%+*0!)@
*+3%*(1 %*#
/1/0*!%* 1! ,/5$+/%/%*),%#*/
^
\ZZcD\Z[Z
c^
[Bb
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
,(1/ !0!0%+*0!)
47
$!/),(!"+.0$!0!*D5!.N++),.%/+*Of\b[P3/.!.1%0! ".+)
[cca0$.+1#$\ZZZB$!%*(1/%+*.%0!.%3!.!"%./0!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%?
/$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %/+. !.+./$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !.? !(1/%+*( %/+. !.?)++ %/+. !.3%0$)++ %*+*#.1!*0,/5$+0%"!01.!/?.%!",/5$+0% %/+. !.+.
,/5$+/%/@(%2%*#%*+*!+"0$!,.0%%,0%*#/%0!/?!%*#+"#![bD`_@* ,!."+.)%*0!((!01((53%0$%*0$!*+.)(.*#!+""1*0%+*%*#+. %*#0+
D/! !/0%)0!O
!/0%)0!haZPB.0%%,*0/)1/0!0%2!(5
,/5$+0%?/)!/1.! 5/+.!+"^O)+ !.0!P+.)+.!+*0(!/0+*!
+",+/%0%2!/1/(!%0!)/[ !(1/%+*/?]$((1%*0+.5!$2%+1.?_
#.* %+/%05?`/1/,%%+1/*!//?+.c1*1/1(0$+1#$0+*0!*0"+.0(!/0a 5/@
*+0$2%*#.!!%2! ,.!2%+1/ !-10!0.!0)!*0"+.,/5$+/%/O !"%*! /
*0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+*+"h]?_$(+,!.% +(!-1%2(!*0/"+.h[\3!!'/+.1*0%(
.!)%//%+*+"0$!,/5$+0%/5),0+)/PB$!5+1( $2!*+*!1.+(+#%(+.
!* +.%*! %/+. !./3%0$.!(0%+*/$%,0+0$!,/5$+/%/@*++*0.%* %0%+*/0+
*0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+** $ 0+1* !./0* * /,!'* %*2%*
(*#1#!B((/01 5,.0%%,*0/%*0$!-1/%D!4,!.%)!*0(D++),.%/+*
/01 5#2!%*"+.)! +*/!*0B"!(%#%(!,.0%%,*0/?\]d.!"1/! B$+/!3$+
.!"1/! ,.0%%,0%+*$ (+*#!.O]\2/B[Z3!!'/@,gBZZP?* 3!.!
/(%#$0(5+( !.O]ZB^2/B\bB[5!./@,fBZ_PB$!.!3/*+/%#*%"%*0 %""!.!*!%*
*1)!.+".!"1/!./+.0$!%.!03!!*0$!* +.!/B$%/)%*%)%6! 0$!.%/'+"%/! +),.%/+*B*+.%#%*(/),(!+"\b[O[^[?[^Z+P
,0%!*0/!*0!.! 0$!/01 5B
$A/$+3/0$!$.0!.%/0%/0%*(1/%+*+",0%!*0/3%0$* 3%0$+10[ZD
5!."+((+3D1,B!-*?,.+2% !/0$!*1)!.+"/1&!0/(+/0? ! ?+."+((+3! D
1,0[?\?_?* [Z5!./B
48
Table 4. Characteristics at inclusion of patients with and without 10-year
follow-up
Measure
Age
GAF
Symptom
GAF
Function
PANSS
components
Positive
Negative
Cognitive
Depressive
Excitative
Gender
(male)*
Alcohol abuse
Drug abuse
Core
schizophrenia
NoED
Follow-up at 10
No follow-up
years (N=73)
at 10 years
(N=67)
Mean
SD
Mean SD
31.2
10.3
30.9
10.7
27.1
7.6
27.1
6.1
ED
Follow-up at 10 No follow-up at
years (N=101) 10 years
(N=40)
Mean
SD
Mean SD
26.3
7.8
25.8
7.3
30.5
6.3
32.1
6.5
29.1
10.6
28.4
8.8
33.3
10.3
34.5
9.2
16.3
21.9
7.9
13.3
10.6
N
41
3.8
8.9
3.3
4.2
4.9
%
56
16.4
22.6
7.9
13.5
11.1
N
38
4.4
10.6
3.3
4.1
4.8
%
56
14.4
18.9
6.8
11.0
8.7
N
56
4.4
7.1
3.3
3.7
3.9
%
55
14.2
18.0
6.4
11.1
8.6
N
31
3.7
6.3
2.8
3.8
3.1
%
77
9
9
41
12
12
56
15
15
42
22
22
63
13
30
65
13
30
64
8
11
27
20
28
68
Median
Range
Ran
ge
0416
Media Range
n
18
01196
Media Ran Median
n
ge
DUP**
13
0-520 22
04
966
ED followed up group < ED no follow-up group, p <0.05
ED followed up group < ED no follow-up group, p <0.01
49
!03!!*,0%!*0/"+((+3! 1,0[Z5!./* ,0%!*0/(+/00+"+((+3D1,?0$!.!
3!.!*+ %""!.!*!/0%*(1/%+*%*#!+.?+.+* %#*+/0% %/0.%10%+*+.
/1/0*!1/!B
*0$!.!?0$!.!3!.!"!3!.)(!/%*0$!"+((+3! D1,#.+1,
0$*%*0$!#.+1,(+/00+[ZD5!."+((+3D1,O+
/.0%+AB^@c_d
AB\DBb@,fBZ\`P?
* ,0%!*0/(+/00+"+((+3D1,%*+0$.!/O1*(!0+0.!+.#!0%*+*00
3%0$P$ /%#*%"%*0(5(+*#!.)! %* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/O,fBZZ`PB
3!(2!,0%!*0/%*0$!* [`%*0$!+.!$ %! B$!/!3!.!%*(1 ! %*0$!I(+/0J#.+1,/0$!.!3!.!*+/%#*%"%*0 %""!.!*!/0%*(1/%+*+**5+"
0$!2.%(!/!03!!* ! ,0%!*0/* ,0%!*0//1.2%2%*#10(+/00+"+((+3D1,B
!-*?7.*.!/'(,!&,+, *'- 8'+,-17
50
3.4 The Early Detection intervention
3.4.1 The TIPS information campaigns
$!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/3!.!%)! 0.! 1%*#0$.+1#$.%/%*#
3.!*!//+10/%#*/* /5),0+)/+",/5$+/%/?%),.+2%*#$!(,D/!!'%*#
!$2%+1.+"0$!#!*!.(,+,1(0%+*?* %),.+2%*#.!"!..(0+/,!%(%/0
0.!0)!*05/0$.+1#$!*$*%*#'*+3(! #!+10,/5$+/%/B+30++*00
0$!
!0!0%+*0!)/3/*%),+.0*0,.0+"((),%#*/B$1/?0$!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/$ 03+)%*!(!)!*0/A!4),(!/+",/5$+0%/5),0+)/?
* 0$!,$+*!*1)!.+"0$!!0!0%+*!)B+.%*/0*!AI
"5+1.!3+..%! !1/!/+)!+*!5+1'*+3$!./2+%!/?0//0.*#!(5?+./!!)/+*"1/! ?((
0_[_[_c_cJB$!/%),(!0!(!,$+*!*1)!.3/$+/!* !(%!.0!(5B10
(/+*!#0%2!/5),0+)/3!.!
.!//! %*0$!),%#*/?/+0$00$! !0!0%+*
0!)0$!)/!(2!/+1( //!//3$!0$!.0$!.!3!.!/%#*/+",/5$+/%/AI
"/+)!+*!
5+1'*+3/1
!*(501.*//%(!*0C0$!51/1((5$2!/+)!0$%*#0+/5JB!3/,,!.
2!.0%/!)!*0/?%*0!*/%2!(51/! ?$2!!!*0$!)+/0%),+.0*0)!//#!..%!.B
*
%0%+*0$!.!3!.!.+$1.!/?,+/0!./?%*"+)!.%(/0%*!)* +*(+(
* . %+/00%+*/B+)!!4),(!/*!2%!3! %*!-*@7
51
!-*@60%($'('+,*$''+5-+.*,!+%&,&!&'*%,!'&
('+,*7
52
3!,#!3/ !/%#*! ,.%).%(5//!.2%!0+$!(0$,.+"!//%+*(/* /*
%*"+.)0%+*/!+100$!,.+&!0B
*
%0%+*0+0$%/?bZdOf]ZZP+"0$!
+1*05H//1* !.3!*0*! 10%+*(,.+#.))!O^$+1./P+10,/5$+/%/B
*
[cca?0$!/(+#*AGG!!'$!(,/!.(5/,+//%(!* 5+1$2!0$!!/0$*!0+
.!+2!.BHH
**1.5[cca?.+$1.!3/ %/0.%10! 0+(($+1/!$+( /%*0$!
+1*05B$%/+*0%*! ,.!/!*00%+*+"((0$!0+,%/".+)0$! 2!.0%/!)!*0/?
3%0$!),$/%/+*/5),0+)/?2%((!0.!0)!*0?* 0$!%),+.0*!+"/!!'%*#
$!(,0*!.(5/0#!B/)((.+$1.!?0$!/%6!+"1/%*!//. ?3/
53
%/0.%10! 0+/?$!(0$3+.'!./?/$++(/?* +0$!.,(!/3$!.!%03/*01.(
0+$* 0$!)+10B
*0$!101)*+"[cca?3!(1*$! /$++(),%#*B$!
)%*+&!0%2!+"0$%/),%#*3/0+,.+2% !'*+3(! #!+10,/5$+/%/0+
0!$!./%*0$!$%#$/$++(/B$%/$/)%*(5!!* +*!0$.+1#$+1./!/* (!01.!//1,,+.0! 3%0$ 2!.0%/!)!*0/* +0$!.)0!.%(B$!+1*05H/^_$%#$
/$++(/O,,.+4%)0!(5[ZZZ0!$!./P$2!((!!*2%/%0! +****1(/%/
* +""!.! *! 10%+*(,.+#.))!+*/%/0%*#+"(!01.!/* 2% !+/B
.+$1.!* ,+/0!./3!.!) !"+. %/0.%10%+*0+/$++(/B$!.+$1.!
+*0%*! (%/0+"/5),0+)/* +),.%/+*+"3.*%*#/%#*/0+,//%*#
,.+(!)/05,%("+. +(!/!*!B0$!.,1(%.!(0%+*/0.0!#%!//1$/".!!
,+/0. /%*.!/01.*0/?"(5!./?./0%'!./?0D/$%.0/?* +0$!..+$1.!/3!.!
) !2%((!0+((0$%*'(!1 %!*!B+%(3+.'!./?(+(+))1*%05
,/5$%0.%*1./!/?* /3!.!((+""!.! 5!.(5/!)%*.?!%0$!.%*0$!%.+3*
(+0%+*/+.00$!$+/,%0(3%0$"+1/+*!.(5%*0!.2!*0%+** %*"+.)0%+*
+100$!,.+&!0/001/B
((%*((?0$!,.+#.))!3/3$0(+5 D2*/!0(%*0$!%..!2%!3((! I)1(0%D
"+(JO(+5 D2*/!0(B?\Z[[P%*0$00$!53!.! !/%#*! "+.)1(0%,(!0.#!0
1 %!*!/A0$!#!*!.(,+,1(0%+*?/$++(/N+0$0!$!./?/+%(3+.'!./?* /01 !*0/D/* +0$!.$!(0$,.+"!//%+*(/%*,.%).5* +))1*%05$!(0$
.!B
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/$2!#+*!0$.+1#$/!2!.( !2!(+,)!*0(,$/!/B
$B %/,(5/0$!),%#*//0$!5$2!!!*1/! 0$.+1#$0$!/!,$/!/B((
(+*#,.+"!//%+*(,1(%.!(0%+*/+),*5$/% ! %* !/%#*%*#0$!)B$!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/+/0+*!)%((%+*O[]]ZZZP,!.5!.?".+)[ccaD
\ZZZB
54
*
%0%+*0+0$%//,!%"%
,.+#.))!?0$!**1($%6+,$.!*%5/
+.#*%/! %*02*#!.?+.35/%*![cbc/$+1( !)!*0%+*! B$%/+*"!.!*!
$/!+)!0$!(.#!/0+*"!.!*!+*)!*0($!(0$%** %*2%* +""!./
".!!(!01.!/+10)!*0($!(0$%//1!/+,!*0+0$!#!*!.(,1(%B
*"+.)0%+*
+10
* !.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/%/),(52%((!00$!/!2!*1!/B
$!5(/+3+.'0+3. / !D/0%#)0%/0%+*+")!*0(%((*!//* )!*0($!(0$
.!?/+)!0$%*#0$0+1( +*0.%10!0+(+3!.0$.!/$+( 0+3. //!!'%*#$!(,B
/.!(/+%*2%0! 0+/!)%*.+*0$!/!%//1!/00$!+*"!.!*!B/* +0$!.
$!(0$.!,.+"!//%+*(/3!.!.!$! )%*(50$.+1#$! 10%+*,.+#.))!/
%*(1 %*#]D^$+1.0.%*%*#/!)%*.B(+*#0$!/)!(%*!/?0.%*%*#/3!.!
,.+2% ! "+.)!*0($!(0$.!,.+"!//%+*(/B$++(/3!.!)%*(5.!$! 5
,.+2% %*#(!//+*/"+./01 !*0/* 0.%*%*#/"+.0!$!./* +0$!.,!./+**!(B
$5!.?$%#$/$++(#. 10!/01 !*0/.!%*2%0! 0+/!,.0!/!)%*.00$!
$%6+,$.!*%5/?/3!((B!.(5\ZZZ/01 !*0/,.0%%,0!B
55
$B7'&,&,'!&'*%,!'&%(!&*'++
>, *'- A
[
\
]
10%+*(,.+#.))!"+./+10,/5$+/%/?!.(5 4
4
3.*%*#/%#*/?* !0!0%+*0!)
%/0.%10%+*0+/+"$!'(%/0"+./5),0+)//! 4
+*0$!,.+ .+)(/5),0+)/* .0%*#)*1(
"+.+.!/5),0+)/
3%!5!.(5*!3/(!00!.0+/
4
4
4
^
4
4
4
1((D,#! 2!.0%/!)!*0/%*0$!(.#!/0*!3/,,!./%*
+.35O!!)!.[cc`* *1.5[ccaPB
4
a5!.(5"1((D,#!(+(*!3/,,!. 2!.0%/!)!*0/
4
^5!.(5"1((D,#!(+(*!3/,,!. 2!.0%/!)!*0/
4
4
3+[\D,#!.+$1.!/+10,/5$+/%/?!.(53.*%*# 4
/%#*/?* 0$!
,.+&!0 %/0.%10! 0+(($+1/!$+( /
.!-1!*0O,,.+4%)0!(53!!'(5P/)((!.*!3/,,!.
4
2!.0%/!)!*0/
0%2!1/!+"3!/%0!O0%,/D%*"+B+)P@!++',#!?
5+101!O"%()P?3%00!.
4
4
4
4
4
(/$D 2!.0%/!)!*0/+*0$!(+(*!3/,,!./H%*0!.*!0
! %0%+*/
10%+*(,.+#.))!/"+.$%#$/$++(0!$!./* /01 !*0/O+1./!/?(!01.!/%*(1 %*#3%0$]ZZ
/(% !/+*0$!/1&!00+$++/!".+)?* 0!40++'?
%*"+.)0%+*)0!.%(P
3+(+(1/!/..5%*#(.#! 2!.0%/!)!*0/+2!.%*#
0$!'+"0$!1/
.!!,+/0. /* /)((.+$1.!/3%0$%*"+.)0%+*?
%/0.%10! 0)!!0%*#,(!/"+.5+1*#,!+,(!?/1$/
/$++(/?1*%2!./%05?"9/?.!/01.*0/?1//00%+*/?!0B
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
%()/* 1 %+.!+. ! 2!.0%/!)!*0/"+.(+(
%*!)/?. %+* 0!(!2%/%+*O/+)!%*+((+.0%+*
3%0$+*!+"0$!+1*0.5H/)+/0,+,1(.+)! %*/P
4
4
4
(5!./?.D/0%'!./?+""!!)1#/?,!*/* ,+/0D%0/
%/0.%10! 0+((.!(!2*0,.0%!/
4
4
4
4
.+$1.!/?*!3/,,!. /?* ! 10%+*+10
/1/0*!1/!* ,/5$+/%/
4
56
3.4.2 Detection teams
!0!0%+*!)/O+*!%*!$+"0$!03+/!0+./)'%*#1,0$!.!P
+*/%/0! +"0$.!!,/5$%0.%*1./!/3%0$
%0%+*(0.%*%*#%*/.!!*%*#"+.* //!//)!*0+",/5$+/%/B
0(/++*/%/0! +"(%*%(,/5$+(+#%/0* 03+
,/5$%0.%.!/% !*0/..5%*#+10"1.0$!.//!//)!*0/* %#*+/0%/B((/!/
3!.! %/1//! 3%0$%*0$!0!)!2!.53!!'B$!0!)3/2%((!50!(!,$+*!
!2!.53+.' 5!03!!*b)* ],)?* 0$!,$+*!3/+,!*0+((/+1.!/?
%*(1 %*#$!(0$,.+"!//%+*(/?/+%(/!.2%!/?0!$!./?* 0$!#!*!.(,1(%B
10/% !+""%!$+1./0$!.!3/2+%!)%(/!.2%!!*/1.%*#0$0((!./3+1( !
+*00! +*0$!"+((+3%*#3+.' 5B$!0!)/,!."+.)! 0!(!,$+*!/.!!*%*#
"+.,/5$+/%/"+.0$!,!./+*%*-1!/0%+*B
*/!+",+/%0%2!/.!!*?
,,+%*0)!*0/3!.!) !* //!//)!*050$!..%! +103%0$%*\^
$+1./?+.0$!*!403+.' 5%*/!+"3!!'!* +.$+(% 5B
$!0!)/H,$+*!*1)!./3!.!//!.0%2!(5 2!.0%/! %*0$!%*"+.)0%+*
),%#*B
"0$!//!//)!*0+*(1 ! 3%0$0$!,.!/!*!+",/5$+/%/?
,/5$+(+#%/0+.,/5$%0.%/03%0$%*0$!
0!)+* 10! (%*%(%*0!.2%!3
"+. %#*+/0%,1.,+/!/B%*((5?%0%/%),+.0*00+*+0!0$0*+.!"!..(3/
*!! ! 0+0$!/!0!)/?* 0$!5+1( .!"!.0+/,!%(%/00.!0)!*0/3$!.!
*!! ! ? %.!0(5B$%/%/%),+.0*0!1/!?/(+5 D2*/!0(+*(1 !%*0$!%.
.!2%!3?/!.2%!+*"%#1.0%+*/!!)/0+!*!!//.5!/% !/%*"+.)0%+*?3$!*
%)%*#0+.! 1!B!./+*/3%0$,/5$+/%/D(%'!/5),0+)//!!'%*#$!(,".+)
0$!/,!%(%6! ,/5$%0.%/!.2%!/1* !.3!*0/.!!*%*#50$!/01 5H/
//!//)!*00!)O]`M[ZZZZZ,!.5!.PB+/0/+"%*"+.)0%+* ),%#*/,(1/
!0!0%+*0!)/3!.!+10\)%((%+*,!.5!.?+2!.%*#,+,1(0%+*
+"+10^ZZZZZB
57
3.4.3 Treatment protocol
+)%*%)%/! %""!.!*!/%*0.!0)!*0%*"(1!*%*#.!/1(0/?,0%!*0/".+)+0$
.!/3!.!0.!0! +. %*#0+\D5!./0* . 0.!0)!*0,.+0++(B
0%*(1 ! *0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+*?/1,,+.0%2!,/5$+0$!.,503%!3!!'(5"+.0(!/003+
5!./?* )1(0%D")%(5,/5$+D! 10%+*)!!0%*#/!2!.5"+.0*%#$0"+.03+5!./B
"0!./+)!%*%0%( ,00%+*/O,&+. /)+!*!0(B?\ZZcP0$!)! %0%+*,.+0++(
3//"+((+3/A
[/0$+%!A(*6,%*!?/0.0%*# +/![Z)#?)4%)1) +/!\Z)#B
"*+*D
.!/,+*/!?Q !"%*! /,!./%/0%*#/+.!+"^O)+ !.0!P+.)+.!+**5+"0$!
+/%0%2!* !#0%2!5* .+)!(!OPO5!0(B?[cbaP/5),0+)/A
!(1/%+*/O[P?$((1%*0+.5!$2%+1.O]P?#.* %+/%05O_P?
/1/,%%+1/*!//M,!./!10%+*O`P?+.1*1/1(0$+1#$0+*0!*0OcPP?+.
%*0+(!.(!/% !D!""!0/R 1.%*#)4%)1)+/!.20%+*(,!.%+ +"b3!!'/0$!*
/3%0$0+%/,!.% +*!\D^)#?)4%)1) +/!+"[Z)#B
"*+*D.!/,+*/! !"%*! /+2!+.%*0+(!.(!/% !!""!0/ 1.%*#)4%)1)+/!.20%+*(,!.%+ +"b
3!!'/?/3%0$0+!."!*6%*!?)4%)1) +/![`)#B
"/0%((*+.!)%//%+*"0!.*
+/!.20%+*(,!.%+ `3!!'/?/3%0$0+(+6,%*!?1#1)!*0%*#1,0+`ZZ)#B
3.5 Assessments
.%*! )!*0($!(0$,!./+**!(O(%*%(,/5$+(+#%/0?,/5$%0.%/0?+.
,/5$%0.%.!/% !*0P..%! +10//!//)!*0/0%*(1/%+*?])+*0$/?* +*!?
03+?"%2!?* 0!*5!./O)!*0%)!0+0!*D5!."+((+3D1,A[Z?^5!./@/ AZBc
5!./PB$!/0.101.! (%*%(%*0!.2%!3"+.0$!D
O
P3/1/! "+.
%#*+/0%,1.,+/!/O,%06!.!0(B?[cc\PB!2!(+""1*0%+*%*#3///!//! 1/%*#
0$!(+(//!//)!*0+"1*0%+*%*#(!OPO* %+00!0(B?[ca`PB
58
/+.!/3!.!/,(%0%*0+/5),0+)O/P* "1*0%+*/+.!/O"PO! !./!*!0
(B?\ZZaPB3/!/0%)0! 1/%*#((2%((!%*"+.)0%+*%*(1 %*#%*0!.2%!3?
,0%!*0"%(!/* %*"+.)0%+*".+)")%(53$!*,+//%(!B
03/ !"%*! /0$!
0%)!?%*3!!'/?".+)0$!!)!.#!*!+",+/%0%2!/5),0+)/O/+.!+""+1.+.
)+.!D)+ !.0!D+*,+/%0%2!/(!%0!)/[ !(1/%+*/?]$((1%*0+.5
!$2%+1.?_#.* %+/%05?`/1/,%%+1/*!//?+.#!*!.(/(!%0!)c1*1/1(
0$+1#$0+*0!*0P0$.+1#$+100$! 5"+./!2!.( 5/+./!2!.( 5/3!!'0+
%*%0%0%+*+" !-10!0.!0)!*0O0$!/0.0+"/0.101.! 0.!0)!*03%0$
*0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+*/+.0$!/0.0+"$+/,%0(%60%+*%*$%#$(5/0""! ,/5$%0.%3. /+.#*%6! 0+)*#! %/01.%*#,/5$+0%/5),0+)/PB"!3
*+*D$+/,%0(%6! ,0%!*0//0.0! +10,0%!*0,/5$+0$!.,5"+.,/5$+/%/?10 % *+03*0)! %0%+*".+)0$!!#%**%*#B+.0$!/!,0%!*0//0.0+"
,/5$+0$!.,53/.!#. ! //0.0+" !-10!0.!0)!*0B1.0%+*+"
,/5$+/%/3/0$!0%)! 1.%*#"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*0?)!/1.! %*3!!'/?3%0$
/+.!+""+1.+.$%#$!.+*0$!/!/)!%0!)/B.!)+.% "1*0%+*%*#3/
)!/1.! 50$!.!)+.% //!//)!*0+"1*0%+*%*#(!OPO**+*D
,++.!0(B?[cb\P?3$%$ !/.%!/"+1.,.!)+.% ,!.%+ /%*(%"!A$%( $++ O1,
0+[[5!./P?.(5 +(!/!*!O[\N[_5!./P?0! +(!/!*!O[`N[b5!./P?
* 1(0$++ O[c5!./* !5+* PB$!.0%*#3//! +*%*0!.2%!3/3%0$
0$!,0%!*0* M+.3%0$")%(5)!)!./B
,.!2%+1/*(5/%/% !*0%"%! 03+,.!)+.% %)!*/%+*/A/+%( %)!*/%+*
+*/%/0%*#+"%0!)//+%(%/+(0%+** ,!!..!(0%+*/$%,/* * !)%
%)!*/%+*3$%$+*0%*//$++(,!."+.)*!* /$++( ,00%+*B+. !0%(/
+100$%/)+ %"%0%+*?/!!,.!2%+1/,1(%0%+*O./!*!0(B?\ZZ^PB$*#!
/+.!/3!.!(1(0! /0$! %""!.!*!!03!!*$%( $++ /+.!* 0$!(/0
/+.!2%((!O$.!0(B?\ZZbPB/+.!+"`+*0$!%* %0!/0$!(+3!/0
(!2!(+""1*0%+*%*#?3$!.!//+.!+"Z%* %0!/*+,0%)((!2!(B
59
5),0+)(!2!(/3!.!)!/1.! 50$!B$!/(!/+.! "%2!/5),0+)
+)%*/A,+/%0%2!O !(1/%+*/?$((1%*0%+*/?#.* %+/%05?1*1/1(0$+1#$0
+*0!*0?* ('+"&1 #)!*0* %*/%#$0P?*!#0%2!O(1*0! ""!0?!)+0%+*(
3%0$ .3(?,++..,,+.0?,//%2!M,0$!0%/+%(3%0$ .3(?('+"
/,+*0*!%05* "(+3+"+*2!./0%+*?)**!.%/)/* ,+/01.%*#?)+0+.
.!0. 0%+*?,++.00!*0%+*? %/01.*!+"2+(%0%+*?0%2!/+%(2+% *!P?
+#*%0%2!O+*!,01( %/+.#*%60%+*? %""%1(05%*/0.00$%*'%*#?
%/+.%!*00%+*P? !,.!//%2!O/+)0%+*!.*?*4%!05?#1%(0"!!(%*#/? !,.!//%+*?
,.!+1,0%+*P?* !4%0!)!*0O$5,!.0%2%05?$+/0%(%05?0!*/%+*?
1*++,!.0%2!*!//?,++.%),1(/!+*0.+(P/5),0+)/O!*0/!*?[cc`PB0[Z5!./
"+((+3D1,?/5),0+).!)%//%+*3/ !"%*! %*+. *!3%0$0$!*!3
%*0!.*0%+*(/0* . %6! .%0!.%O* .!/!*!0(B?\ZZ_PA+/+.!+"^+.
$%#$!."+.0$!,/0`)+*0$/+**5+"0$!"+((+3%*#D%0!)/A[ !(1/%+*/?
\ %/+.#*%6! 0$+1#$0?]$((1%*0+.5!$2%+1.?[""!0%2!"(00!*%*#?^
,//%2!/+%(3%0$ .3(?`('+"/,+*0*!%05?_%6..!,+/01.!?+.c
1*1/1(0$+1#$0+*0!*0B
!+2!.53/+,!.0%+*(%6! /+)%*0%+*+"/5),0+).!)%//%+** !-10!"1*0%+*%*#%*]"1*0%+*( %)!*/%+*//! +*0$!0.1//D.,!*0!.
!2!(+"1*0%+*(!O0.1//* .,!*0!.?[caaP+*0%*1+1/(5"+.0$!(/0[\
)+*0$/A
[B 5D0+D 5(%2%*#O%* !,!* !*0(%2%*#P
\B +(!"1*0%+*%*#O3+.'? !)%?+."1((D0%)!$+)!D)'%*#P
]B +%(
*0!.0%+*
/+.!+"Z%* %0! 2!.5,++.* ^ !-10!"1*0%+*%*#B0%!*0/%*.!+2!.5
$ 0+$2!!!*%*/5),0+).!)%//%+*+. %*#0+0$!/5),0+).!)%//%+*
.%0!.%%0!)/(%/0! +2!B
%0%+*((5?0$!5$ 0+$2!/+.! 0$!)4%)1)
/+.!+"^+*((]+"0$!"1*0%+*( %)!*/%+*/B
60
(+$+(* .1#1/!3///!//! 1/%*#0$!(+$+(/!%/+. !.
!*0%"%0%+*
!/0O1* !./!0(B?[cc]P* 0$!.1#/!%/+. !.
!*0%"%0%+*!/0
O!.)*!0(B?\ZZ_PB$!/!%*/0.1)!*0/3!.!
! 00!*D5!."+((+3D1,0+0$!
+.%#%*(//!//)!*000!.50$01/! +*(50$!(%*%%*(+$+(M.1#/!0%*#
(!O.'!!0(B?\ZZ`PB
.!0)!*0$.0!.%/0%/3!.!+,!.0%+*(%6! %*0$!"+((+3%*#35A
/5$+0$!.,5A*1)!.+"3!!'/,!.5!.+"0(!/0+*!/!//%+*+"/1,,+.0%2!
,/5$+0$!.,5,!.3!!'B! %0%+*A*1)!.+"3!!'/,!.5!.+"0.!0)!*0
3%0$*0%D,/5$+0%)! %0%+*B!"%*! %(5 +/#!OPA00$!0%)!+"
!$//!//)!*0B+/,%0(%/0%+*A1)!.+"3!!'/%*$+/,%0(,!.5!.B
3.5.1 Reliability
!(%%(%05//!//)!*0/$2!!!*..%! +100$.+1#$+100$!/01 5* ,1(%/$! %*,.!2%+1/,,!./B$!*/!(%*! 0+((!0%+*3/"%*%/$! ?3!
.!3/0.0%"%! .* +)/),(!+"]Z/!/?+),.%/%*#((/%0!/B$!/%0!
++. %*0+./,.+ 1! 2%#*!00!/"+./!/".+)0$!%.+3*/%0!? !/.%%*#
/5),0+)/* !2!(+,)!*0+"0$!%((*!//B3+!4,!.0/?3$+3!.!(%* 0+0$!
/%0!.0%*#/?/+.! 0$!2%#*!00!/B$!"%./0!%#$02%#*!00!/3!.!1/! "+.
(%.0%+** 0.%*%*#B$!"+((+3%*#\\2%#*!00!/3!.!1/! "+..!(%%(%05
0!/0%*#O.%%/!0(B?\ZZ]PB+.*(5/!/? %#*+/!/3!.! %$+0+)%6! %*0++.!
/$%6+,$.!*%/,!0.1) %#*+/!/O/$%6+,$.!*%?/$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %/+. !.?
* /$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !.P* +0$!.,/5$+0% %/+. !./B+. %#*+/%/3!
"+1* ,,fZBb[?"+.0$!+0$!.)!/1.!/A
*0.(//+..!(0%+*+!""%%!*0/
O+*!D35.* +)!""!0/)+ !(P3!.!A"1*0%+*AZBb`?* /5),0+)/A
ZBc[B
61
0[Z5!./?0$!.0!./3!.!(%.0! 0$.+1#$0.%*%*#/1/%*#2% !+0,! %*0!.2%!3/* 2%#*!00!/?* /!/3!.! %/1//! .!#1(.(50+2+% .%"0B
3!*05D!%#$0,0%!*0/#2!%*"+.)! +*/!*0"+.2% !+.!+. %*#+"
%*0!.2%!3/?10 1!0+0!$*%(,.+(!)/+*(5\`3!.!1/(!B0%!*0/
2% !+0,! 3!.!*+0/%#*%"%*0(5 %""!.!*0+*+./+.!/".+)0$+/!
3$+3!.!*+02% !+0,! B$!2% !+/3!.!.0! 5*!4,!.%!*! ,/5$+(+#%/0
*+0%*2+(2! %*0$!,.+&!0* (%* 0+((.0%*#/?$+3!2!. 1!0+ %""!.!*!/%*
%(!0/!03!!*/%0!/"1(((%* %*#3/*+0,+//%(!B$!
03+D35)%4! )+ !(3/1/! 3%0$0$!+*/%/0!*5+,0%+*?!1/!3!3%/$! 0+ !0!.)%*!0$!
+*/%/0!*5+".0%*#/!03!!**%* !,!* !*0.0!.* /01 5.0%*#/.+//
/%0!/B
/Oc_d+*"% !*!%*0!.2(/P+"0$!+),+*!*0/3!.!A+/%0%2!
B`_OB\ZNBc]P@!#0%2!ABb\OB^bNBcaP@+#*%0%2!ABa`OB]^NBc`P@!,.!//%2!AB`a
OB[bNBc^P@* 4%00%2!B`[OB[`NBc\PB$!)! %*2(1!3/B`aB$%(/00$%/%/
!(+3.!+))!* 0%+*"+.$!(0$.!/!.$+"Ba_+.$%#$!.O0.!%*!.* +.)*?[cc_P?%0%/3!((3%0$%*0$!+. !./+"3$0%*0$!)1$%0! .0%(!5
(!%//O(!%//?[cb`P%/((! I"%.0+#++ JAB^ZDBa_B
3.6 Statistical analyses
$!/00%/0%(*(5/!/3!.!+* 10! 1/%*#[bBZ* [cBZO?\Z[ZP
* \B[ZBZO?\ZZcPB
*0$!(+*#%01 %*(/01 5?3/1/! 0+
+),.!)!*/.+//,$/!/* %#*+/0%#.+1,/?* +*"!..+*%,+/0D$+
0!/0/3!.!..%! +10"+.)1(0%,(!+),.%/+*/B!(/+0!/0! "+.0.!* /5
1/%*#+*0./0/B+2!.0%)!* 0$!//+%0%+*3%0$0$!,.!/!*!+"
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/3!.!"1.0$!.!4)%*! 1/%*#(%*!..!#.!//%+**(5/!/
3%0$/0$! !,!* !*02.%(!B+2.%0!/!*0!.! 3!.!#!?#!* !.?* %#*+/0%0!#+.5?%*/0!,3%/!,.+! 1.!5%!( %*#/-1.!$*#!?%* %0%*#
!""!0/%6!* )+1*0+"!4,(%*! 2.%*!B
62
*0$!M++),.%/+*?0$!.!)5$2!!!*/!(!0%2!00.%0%+*0[ZD5!.
"+((+3D1,?3$%$$ 0+!+*/% !.! %* 0*(5/%/B%./0(5?3/
,,(%! 0+%*2!/0%#0!0$!,+//%%(%05+"*%*0!.0%+*!03!!*05,!+"/5),0+)/
0(/0"+((+31,* M+ .+,+10B!+* (5? 0".+)+*0%*1+1/+10+)!
2.%(!/O?P3!.!*(5/! 1/%*#(%*!.)%4! D!""!0/)+ !(/B!
1/! /5),0+)/+.!// !,!* !*0?* M+* 0%)!3%0$0$!%.
%*0!.0%+*/%* !,!* !*02.%(!/?!4,(+.%*#%((*!//+1./!/%** +
.!/* %""!.!*!/!03!!*0$!)B/0%)0!/3!.!+..!0! "+.,+//%(!
!""!0/+"0$!+2.%0!/#!* !.?#!?* ?0$!(00!.!%*#(+#0.*/"+.)! 0+
,,.+$*+.)( %/0.%10%+*B0+*(%*%()!/1.!/0%*(1/%+*%* 1! (!.*+*D(%*!.%05* 3!.!!4(1 ! B
*
%0%+*0+0$!(%*!.)%4! !""!0
*(5/!/?#.+1, %""!.!*!/3!.!!/0%)0! 1/%*#%* !,!* !*0/),(!/0D0!/0/"+.
+*0%*1+1/?* +
/.0%+/"+.0!#+.%(2.%(!/B
*2!/0%#0%*#0$!
//+%0%+*/!03!!*+10+)!2.%(!/00!*5!./* 0!#+.%(2.%(!/?
+
/.0%+/3%0$c_d+*"% !*!%*0!.2(/* 0$!!./+*$%-1.!0!/0
/00%/0%3!.!(1(0! B
+*,.)!0.%*(5/!/O**D$%0*!50!/0"+.,%.3%/!?* .1/'((((%/
$%-1.!0!/0"+.)1(0%,(!+),.%/+*/P3!.!,,(%! "+.+),.%/+*+"/'!3! 0B((0!/0/3!.!03+D0%(! B+1.0!!*+),.%/+*/3!.!) !+*+10+)!
)!/1.!/B/0$!+*"!..+*%+..!0%+*%/2!.5+*/!.20%2!?3!1/! /0.%0
+*"% !*!(!2!(O!*!0$\dP+*+10+)!)!/1.!/%*+. !.0+)%*%)%6!0$!
.%/'+"05,!
!..+.B%*((5?(+#%/0%.!#.!//%+**(5/%/3/,,(%! 0+/01 5
3$%$"0+./,.! %0! .!+2!.5* *+*D.!)%//%+*B/0!,3%/!2.%(!
/!(!0%+*.+10%*!3/!),(+5! B+..!+2!.5A+),+*!*0/+.!/0
%*(1/%+*?#!?#!* !.?* M+/* % 0!,.! %0+.2.%(!/B+.
*+*D.!)%//%+*A#!?#!* !.?M+?* $2%*#+.!/$%6+,$.!*%/,!0.1)
%/+. !.@3!!'/+",/5$+/%/ 1.%*#0$!"%./05!.B*(5,.! %0+.//$+3%*#
63
/%#*%"%*0 %""!.!*!/!03!!*0!*D5!..!)%00! * *+*D.!)%00! ,0%!*0/0
%*(1/%+*3!.!!2!*01((5/!(!0! B!1/!+"+*!,01(+2!.(,* /00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0+..!(0%+*!03!!**1)!.+".!(,/!/* 3!!'/+"
,/5$+/%/ 1.%*#0$!"%./05!.O!./+*+..!(0%+*B]@,gBZZZP?*1)!.+"
.!(,/!/3/+)%00! B+.0$!!4)%*0%+*+"0$!%* %2% 1(/5),0+)/H
+*0.%10%+*0+0$!,.! %0%+*+"0!*D5!.*+*D.!)%//%+*?3!+* 10! /!+* %*.5(+#%/0%.!#.!//%+**(5/%/?!*0!.%*#/!(%*!/+.!/+*0$!%* %2% 1(
.!)%//%+*.%0!.%+*/5),0+)//%* !,!* !*02.%(!/O/0!,\P(+*#3%0$
+2.%0!/#!?#!* !.??$2%*#+.!/$%6+,$.!*% %/+. !.* O/0!,
+*!P* 1.0%+*+",/5$+/%/ 1.%*#"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*0O/0!,0$.!!PB
64
4. Short summary of papers
4.1 Variation in Duration of Untreated Psychosis in an 18year perspective
" %+$!* %*2%*
,.+&!0!*#%*!!.! *!.(5 !0!0%+*+"
,/5$+/%/,.+#.)0$0/+1#$00+.! 1!0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/
OP0$.+1#$!.(5 !0!0%+*0!)/* !40!*/%2!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*//%*!
[ccaB
*[ccaD\ZZZ?3/.! 1! ".+)\`0+_3!!'/)! %*B$!,.+#.)
3/+*0%*1! !5+* 0$!%*%0%(,.+&!0%*)+ %"%! "+.)/"+.+2!.[]5!./B
$&++0.'0$!2%%//%01 !/+"+2!.[b5!.,!.%+ O[cc]D\Z[ZP%*
!"%*! 0$)!*0.!?.+//,$/!/2.5%*#%*!.(5 !0!0%+*%*0!*/%05B
$ +$!+"((,0%!*0/)!!0%*#.%0!.%"+."%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/3/
)!/1.! [cc]D[cc^* ".+)[cca0$.+1#$\Z[Z%**01.(%/0%(+*#D0!.)
/01 5B$%/0%)!,!.%+ 3/ %2% ! %*0+"+1.,$/!/O
,$/!/P?/! +*
+*0!*0* %*0!*/%05+"!.(5 !0!0%+*!""+.0/?"+((+3%*#,%(+0,$/!O[cc]D
[cc^P3%0$*+!.(5 !0!0%+*B2(1!/+"((,0%!*0/3!.!//!//! * %*(1 ! %*0$!/01 5?%..!/,!0%2!+",0%!*0/H,.0%%,0%+*%*(%*%("+((+3D1,
/01 5?5%!( %*#$%#$(5.!,.!/!*00%2!/),(!B
#%$#+2.%! .+//,$/!/3%0$ %""!.%*#%*"+.)0%+*),%#*%*0!*/%05
* +*0!*0B
$!.!3//%#*%"%*0 !.!/!".+)0$!,%(+0,$/!0+0$!"%./0
,$/!B
1.0$!.)+.!?0$!.!3/*//+%0%+*!03!!*0$!,.!/!*!+"%*"+.)0%+*
),%#*/* 0$.+1#$+100$!/01 5,!.%+ B+3!2!.?$*#!/%*)!//#!
65
* *!4,*/%+*+"0.#!0#.+1,0+%*(1 %*#/1/0*!%* 1! ,/5$+/%/3!.!
"+((+3! 5*%*.!/!+"?(0$+1#$0$%/3/*+0/00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0
//+%0%+*B(/+?$2%*#""!0%2!+..%!",/5$+/%/3///+%0! 3%0$/$+.0!.
B
%# #+$!%),+.0*!+"%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/%*.! 1%*#3/
+*"%.)! B.(5 !0!0%+*),%#*//!!)0+*!! /0(!"+1/* $%#$
%*0!*/%05(!2!(%*+. !.0+!!""!0%2!B101.!.!/!.$/$+1( !(1% 0!,0$35/
0+.!%*+. !.0+!/0(%/$,.%*%,(0.#!0/"+.%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/B
4.2 Long-Term Follow-up of the TIPS Early Detection in Psychosis
Study: Effects on Ten-Year Outcome
$&6.(5 !0!0%+*%*"%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/+*"!./ 2*0#!/"+.
*!#0%2!?+#*%0%2!* !,.!//%2!/5),0+)/0[?\* _5!./"+((+3D1,B
+*#%01 %*(!""!0/.!1*'*+3*B$!+&!0%2!+"0$%//01 5$/!!*0+
%*2!/0%#0! %""!.!*!/%*/5),0+)/* .!+2!.50[Z5!./!03!!**.!
3%0$?* *.!3%0$+10!.(5 !0!0%+*B
$ #+\b[O!.(5 !0!0%+*A[^[?*+D!.(5 !0!0%+*A[^ZP,0%!*0/#! [bD`_
3%0$"%./0!,%/+ !+"*+*D""!0%2!,/5$+/%/3!.!%*(1 ! !03!!*[cca* \ZZ[B"0$!/!?[Z[!.(5 !0!0%+** a]*+D!.(5 !0!0%+*,0%!*0/3!.!
"+((+3! 1,0[Z5!./* +),.! +*/5),0+)(!2!(/OP* .!+2!.5B
!+2!.5+)%*! /0* . %6! .!)%//%+*.%0!.%* "1*0%+*(+10+)!B
#%$#+/%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.,!.!*0#!+"!.(5 !0!0%+*,0%!*0/+),.! 0+
*+D!.(5 !0!0%+*,0%!*0/3!.!.!+2!.! 0[Z5!./B$%/$!( 0.1! !/,%0!
)+.!/!2!.!(5%((,0%!*0/ .+,,%*#+10+"0$!/01 5%*0$!*+D!.(5 !0!0%+*.!B
66
4!,0"+.$%#$!.(!2!(/+"!4%00%2!/5),0+)/%*0$!!.(5 !0!0%+*.!?0$!.!
3!.!*+/5),0+) %""!.!*!/!03!!*0$!#.+1,/B.(5 !0!0%+*.!+2!.5.0!/
3!.!$%#$!.(.#!(5!1/!+"$%#$!.!),(+5)!*0.0!/"+.,0%!*0/%*0$%/
#.+1,B
%# #+.(5 !0!0%+*+""%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/,,!./0+%*.!/!0$!
$*!+")%( !. !"%%0"+.)0%+*/* /1,!.%+."1*0%+*%*#B$!)!$*%/)/5
3$%$0$%//0.0!#5%),.+2!/0$!(+*#D0!.),.+#*+/%/+",/5$+/%/.!)%*
/,!1(0%2!B!2!.0$!(!//?+1."%* %*#/+2!.0!*5!./)5%* %0!0$0
)100%2!(%*'!4%/0/!03!!*0%)%*#+"%*0!.2!*0%+** +10+)!0$0 !/!.2!/
"1.0$!./01 5B
4.3 Early Detection, early symptom progression and symptomatic
remission after ten years in a first episode of psychosis study
" %+++./5),0+)+10+)!.!)%*/$((!*#!%*,/5$+/%/A0(!/0
_Zd+""%./0D!,%/+ !,0%!*0/+*0%*1!0+$2!,+/%0%2!* M+.*!#0%2!
/5),0+)/"0!.0!*5!./B
$&++%*2!/0%#0!.0!/?!.(5,.! %0+./* !.(5/5),0+),.+#.!//%+*+"
(+*#D0!.)*+*D.!)%00! ,/5$+/%/%**!.(5 !0!0%+*/01 5B
$ #+5),0+)0%.!)%//%+*+. %*#0+*!3%*0!.*0%+*(.%0!.%3/
//!//! %*[a^,0%!*0/00!*D5!."+((+3D1,B!)%00! * *+*D.!)%00! ,0%!*0/3!.!+),.! +*!.(5/5),0+),.+#.!//%+*?* (+#%/0%.!#.!//%+*
3/,,(%! 0+,.! %0*+*D.!)%//%+*B
67
#%$#+00!*5!./?_Zd+",0%!*0/3!.!%*/5),0+)0%.!)%//%+*B+*D
.!)%//%+*3/,.! %0! 5,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/0%*(1/%+** 1.%*#0$!"%./0
5!.+"0.!0)!*0B"%* %2% 1(/5),0+)/+*(5$((1%*0%+*/3!.!/%#*%"%*0(5
,.! %0%2!+"0!*D5!.*+*D.!)%//%+*B.(5/5),0+) %""!.!*!/3!.!*+0
.!"(!0! 5 %""!.!*!/%*0.!0)!*0B
%# #++*#D0!.)/5),0+)0%*+*D.!)%//%+*%///+%0! 3%0$!.(5
,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B+.!//!.0%2!%*0!.2!*0%+*)5!*!! ! %*,0%!*0/3$+
+*+0.!/,+* .+1/0(5%*0$!"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*0?3$!0$!.+.*+00$!5$2!
!!* !0!0! I!.(5JB
68
5. Results
5.1 Longitudinal DUP-study
5.1.1 Sample characteristics across TIPS phases
$!.!3!.! %""!.!*!/%* %#*+/0% %/0.%10%+*!03!!*
D,$/!/? %/,(5! %*
$C7
69
$C7%($ *,*!+,!+
>8
A7
%(+0
[
\
]
^
*(5/%/
Of^^P
&*:
Of[^`P
Of[[_P
Ofc_P
Of\Z\P
!?
^[
cZO^^B`P
[B`
B`_
(
!&'+!+;G<
!)(!
[`O]`B^P
_cO^ZB^P
^_O]cB[P
$%6+,$.!*%M
]aOb^B[P
a`O_\B[P
^bO^[BaP
\^O\_B]P
`_O]\B\P
_aB[
BZZZU
^OcB[P
`O^B[P
[Z
[\O[\B`P
\[O[ZB^P
`B_
B[a
[O\B]P
[^OcB`P
[]O[[B]P
[^O[^BaP
[bObBcP
_Bb
B\[
\O^B_P
\\O[_B[P
[_O[]BZP
cOcB_P
[]O`B^P
cB`
BZ^bUU
[^OcB`P
[_O[]BZP
[_O[_BbP
\^O[[BcP
bB^
BZb
`[O]ZB\P
^\Ba
BZZZ♯
O^]B\P
/$%6+,$.!*%"+.)
%/+. !.
!(1/%+*(
%/+. !.
.%!",/5$+0%
O[ZB^P
%/+. !.
$%6+""!0%2!
%/+. !.
++ %*+*#.1!*0 ZOZP
""!0%2!
,/5$+/%/
/5$+/%/
ZOZP
[^OcB`P
[\O[ZB^P
\[O\\B[P
(
#!
\bB^
\_BZ
\`Ba
\bB\
\aB\
[Bb
B[\
ObB]P
OaBbP
O[[B`P
O[ZBbP
O[[B]P
U%(+0,$/!h
[?
\?
]?
^
UU%(+0,$/!g
[?
\?
]?
^
♯
%(+0,$/!g
[g
\?
]g
^
70
5.1.2 DUP did not remain at stable low levels during periods with
the full ED-programme.
0 % *+0/1,,+.00$!"%./0$5,+0$!/%/B*0$!+*0..5?0$!.!3//1/0*0%(
2.%0%+*+2!.0$!5!./O!-*APB
!-*A7!&.$-+'.*,!%&*'++8(*'*%%( ++7
]Z
\_
':
*-
(*'*%%
\Z
[_
[Z
_
Z
1993-1994 pilot phase: Median: 26 weeks; range 0-936 weeks
1997-1998 TIPS 1: Median: 6 weeks; range 0-416 weeks
1999-2000 TIPS 1: Median: 8 weeks; range 0-364 weeks
2002-2004 TIPS 2, No information campaigns: Median: 15 weeks; range 0-2080 weeks
2005-2006 TIPS 3, Full ED programme: Median: 14 weeks; range 0-520 weeks
2007-2008 TIPS 4 Full ED programme: Median: 25 weeks; range 0-1530 weeks
2009-2010 TIPS 4 Full ED programme: Median: 8 weeks; range 0-1300 weeks
71
$!(+3(!2!(0$03/$%!2! 1.%*#
[3/*+0/0(5/1/0%*! B/
!4,!0! ?0$!.!3//%#*%"%*0 !.!/!".+)0$!,%(+0,$/!0+
[OAD]B^@
,gBZZ[@.fDZB]@)! %1)!""!0/%6!P?* *%*.!/!".+)
[0+
\OA\B_@
,gBZ[^@.fZB[_@/)((!""!0/%6!PB+3!2!.?.!)%*! 00$!/)!)! %*
(!2!(1,+*.!D%),(!)!*00%+*+"0$!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/%*\ZZ_B$!*?\ZZaD
\ZZb/3*%*.!/!?$+3!2!./00%/0%((5*+0/%#*%"%*0OAD[Ba@,gBZc]@.fD
ZB[\PB$!(+3)! %*".+)
[3/*+0.!D$%!2! 1*0%(\ZZcB
5.1.3 DUP was associated with the presence of information
campaigns
0/1,,+.0! *+2!.((//+%0%+*!03!!*0$!,.!/!*!* /!*!+"
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/?* O0A]B^@ "A_^c@,gBZZ[PB
5.2 Ten-year ED-NoED comparison
*+2!.2%!3+"D++),.%/+*/%/,.!/!*0! %*,$D7
5.2.1 ED Symptom advantages from inclusion, one, two, and five
year follow-up were not maintained at the ten-year follow-up
/00%/0%(*1(($5,+0$!/%/+"*+ %""!.!*!/+1( *+0!.!&!0! B 2*0#!/%*
*!#0%2!?+#*%0%2!* !,.!//%2!/5),0+)/".+)[?\* _5!./3!.!*+0
)%*0%*! 00!*5!./B$!.!3!.!*+ %""!.!*!/%*/+.!/B$!.!
$ /%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.!4%00%2!/5),0+)(!2!(/0$*0$!+.!B$!
.!(/+$ $%#$!.,+/%0%2!?*!#0%2!?* +#*%0%2!/5),0+)(!2!(/100$!/!
%""!.!*!/3!.!*+0/00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0B1.0$!.)+.!?/%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.
72
$D71%(,'%'-,'%5*'.*15&,*,%&,
+
Ofa]P
Of[Z[P
!/1.!
!* !* 0
/5),0+)
bBc_
Bcc
[a[Baa
1*0%+*
_[B]a [\Bc _[B\_ [bBZ BZ_
[a[Bcc
,+/%0%2!+),+*!*0
bBc_
]Bb
[ZBZ^ _Bb
D[B^c
[aZBa_
!#0%2!+),+*!*0
[_B`` `B\
[aB[a bB\
D[B]c
[a[B`b
+#*%0%2!+),+*!*0
^B_b
\B[
^Bc\
\Ba
DBcZ
[aZBbb
!,.!//%2!+),+*!*0
cB`\
]Bb
cB\a
]Bb
B`[
[a\
4%00%2!+),+*!*0U
`Bac
\B\
bB^[
]Bc
D]B^`
[`]B`\
d
d
]_
^aBc _]
_\B_ [B\Z
B``D\B\
!+2!.5 [[
[_B[ ][
]ZBa \Bb
[B[`D_B]b
0%((%*,/5$+0$!.,5
]b
_\B[ ]b
]aB[ B_`
B]D[BZ
0%((+**0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+* _^
a^
``B] B`c
B^D[B^
+0$+/,%0(%/! (/05!.
b\B\ aa
a`B\ [B^^
B`bD]B[
+*0%*1+1/,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/UU \
\Ba
\]
\\Bb [ZB_
\B^D^`BZ
+,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/U
`
bB\
]Z
\cBa ^Ba
[BbD[\B[
Uh+?,gBZZ[
UUh+?,gZBZZZ_
♯h+?,gBZ\a
!)%//%+*
♯
`Z
]Bb
[ZBZ^ _Bb
`a
*(5/%/
"
/0%+ c_d
73
,!.!*0#!+",0%!*0/%*$ +*0%*1+1/,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/(/05!.B$!.!
3/*+ %""!.!*!%*,!.!*0#!+",0%!*0//0%((%*,/5$+0$!.,5* M+.1/%*#
*0%D,/5$+0%)! %0%+*0++1*0"+.0$%/"%* %*#B$!.!3/(/+*+
%""!.!*!%**1)!.+",0%!*0/$+/,%0(%/! (/05!.B1.0$!.)+.!?0$!.!3!.!
*+D+ %""!.!*!/0/01 5%*(1/%+*+*/+%+ !)+#.,$%(2.%(!/+.
%#*+/0% %/0.%10%+*O,$EPB
Selective attrition
00$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,?0$!.!.!.1%0! /%#*%"%*0(5)+.!OabB]dP+"
/1.2%2%*#,0%!*0/Of[\cP0$*0$!+.!O_bBcdPOf[\^PO+
/.0%+A
\B_@c_d
A[B_D^B^@,fBZZ[PB$F %/,(5/0$!)!*/5),0+)/+.!/00$!
"%2!D5!."+((+31,+"0!*D5!. .+,+10/%** +B/$+3! /%#*%"%*0%*0!.0%+*!""!0/!03!!* .+,,%*#+10* +"+.0$!*!#0%2!
O,fBZ[`P* +#*%0%2!O,fBZ][P+),+*!*0/B$%/%* %0!/0$00$!,0%!*0/
.+,,%*#+1000!*5!./%*0$!+.!$ $%#$!.*!#0%2!* +#*%0%2!
/5),0+)(!2!(/0$* .+,+10/%*0$!.!B$!/!.!/5),0+)/0$0
$.0!.%/!,++.,.+#*+/%/B
74
$E7!&'+,!!+,*!-,!'&,+,-1!&$-+!'&7
+
!&'+!+
G
G
$%6+,$.!*%
^[
\cB]d
]c
\aBad
$%6+,$.!*%"+.)
]Z
\[B^d
][
\\BZd
$%6+""!0%2!
[\
bB`d
\\
[_B`d
""!0%2!
\[
[_BZd
[c
[]B_d
%*+*#.1!*0
!(1/%+*(
c
`B^d
`
^B]d
.%!"
`
^B]d
[]
cB\d
0$!.,/5$+/%/
\[
[_BZd
[[
aBbd
\
!./+*$% Ac?_@,gB[_
$F6'%('&&,+'*+,B1*+'*(,!&,+/!, &
/!, '-,>=81*'$$'/8-(7
0%!*0/3%0$_10*+[ZD 0%!*0/3%0$_* [Z5!.
5!."+((+3D1,
"+((+3D1,
&
+
Of[\P +
Ofb`P
Of\[P
Of`aP
'%('&&,
+'*;<
+/%0%2!
cBaO_BcP
cBbO_B\P
bB\O]BaP
bB[O\BaP
!#0%2!U
[cB]OcB]P
[]B[O_B]P
[`B]O`B_P
[`B^OaB_P
+#*%0%2!UU `B[O\BcP
]B`O[B[P
_B\O\B]P
^B]O\BZP
!,.!//%2! cB[O]BcP
aBaO\B_P
bBcO]B[P
aBbO]B]P
4%00%2!
aBZO]B\P
`B[O[B_P
`B_O\B[P
`B`O]B_P
%#*%"%*0%*0!.0%+*/!03!!*M++),(!0%*#M .+,,%*#+10
0[ZD5!."+((+3D1,A
Uf_?c\@ "f[@[bb@,fZBZ[`
UUf^?`c@ "f[@[bb@,fZBZ][
75
Longitudinal symptom patterns
**00!),00++..!0"+.0$!00.%0%+*?3!"%00! (%*!.)%4! !""!0)+ !(/?
3$%$.!/00%/0%()+ !(/+)%*%*#"%4! * .* +)!""!0/?* 35+"
$* (%*# !,!* !*%!/+"(+*#%01 %*( 0B$!5.! %/,(5! %*!-*B7
*0$!
)+ !(!/0%)0%*#*!#0%2!/5),0+)/?+,0%!*0/$ $%#$!.)!*/+.!0
/01 5%*(1/%+*? !(%*%*#0+(!2!(/0+10bB_5!./B$!/)!*+*D,.((!(
0!* !*53//!!*"+.0$!+0$!.+),+*!*0/?10+*(5)!*!4%00%2!
/5),0+)/3!.!!/0%)0! 0+!/%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.%*00!*5!./O,gBZ\@
+0$!.+),+*!*0/M+ %""!.!*!00!*5!./A*B/BPB$!)+ !(/
+1( *+0?$+3!2!.?"1((5+1*0"+.0$!*+*D.* +)*!//+"0$!/01 5/),(!
00.%0%+*B
76
!-*B7!&*%!0,%'$+'+1%(,'%+'.*,&1*+7
77
5.2.2 The ED-area has higher rates of recovery at ten-year followup.
$!.!$ /%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.,!.!*0#!+",0%!*0//+.%*#/
I.!+2!.! JO!-*C<B$0%/?][d+",0%!*0/$ $ /0(!/5),0+)/
.!)%//%+*"+.0(!/0/%4)+*0$/O%*"0?((0$!.!+2!.! ,0%!*0/$ $ /0(!
.!)%//%+*"+.+*!5!.+.)+.!P?3!.!(%2%*#%* !,!* !*0(5O*+03%0$")%(5+"
+.%#%*P?3!.!/!!%*#".%!* /0(!/0+*!3!!'?* $ "1((0%)!+),!0%0%2!
!),(+5)!*0O*+0+*/%'(!2!?1000!* %*#3+.'P+./01 %!/?+),.! 0+[_d
+"+,0%!*0/B$!.!3/*+.!(0%+*!03!!*.!+2!.5* /$%6+,$.!*%
/,!0.1) %/+. !.O+
/.0%+fBa@c_d
fB\D\BcPB%405D03+,!.!*0+"
,0%!*0/(%2! %* !,!* !*0(5?3$%(!%*0$!+.!0$%/,!.!*0#!3/abdB
$%/ %""!.!*!3//00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0B
*(+#%/0%.!#.!//%+*)+ !(?O,fBZ[cP* *!#0%2!/5),0+)/0%*(1/%+*
O,fBZZ_P3!.!,.! %0+./+".!+2!.5B 3/*+0/00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0
,.! %0+.+".!+2!.5%*0$!.!#.!//%+*)+ !(B!+2!.! +,0%!*0/$ $%#$!.)! %*0$**+*D.!+2!.! ,0%!*0/O)! %*A[c@.*#!ZD_\Z@2/B
[\.*#![D[Z\3!!'/P?3$%(!%*? .!+2!.! ,0%!*0/$ (+3!.O)! %*
_@.*#!ZD]`^@2/B^.*#!ZD^[` 3!!'/PB**(5/%*#0$!*01.(
(+#.%0$)+".+//.!+2!.! M*+*D .!+2!.! * D+#.+1,//$+3! 0$00$%/%*0!.0%+*3//00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0Of]Bb@ "A[@,fBZ_PB
78
!-*C7'.*1&-&,!'&$'-,'%
[ZZ?ZZd
+.(5!0!0%+*
UU
.(5!0!0%+*
a_?ZZd
_Z?ZZd
U
\_?ZZd
Z?ZZd
!+2!.! %2%*#
1((0%)!3+.' !!'(5+*00
%* !,!* !*0(5
3%0$".%!* /
U /.0%+2/B*+f\B_?c_d
f[B\D_B^?,fZBZ[a
UU /.0%+2/B*+fB_?c_d
fB\DBc?,fZBZ\aO+..!0! VfOZBZ[aP
Y /.0%+2/B*+f]B[?c_d
f[B]DaB],fZBZZaO+..!0! VfZBZ[aP
79
5.3 Ten-year prediction of non-remission
!)%//%+*.0!/ % *+0 %""!./%#*%"%*0(5!03!!** +.!/O+A
^`B`d@A_\B_d@+
/.0%+f[B]@c_d
AB`cD\B]PB?(+*#3%0$$%#$!.
(!2!(/* (+*#!.,!.%+ /+",+/%0%2!/5),0+)/3!.!//+%0! 3%0$*+*D
.!)%//%+*00!*D5!."+((+3D1,O,$>=<B+3!2!.?!)!(!.(5*+*D
/%#*%"%*03$!* 1.0%+*+",/5$+/%/ 1.%*#0$!"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*03/
!*0!.! %*0+(+#%/0%.!#.!//%+*)+ !(B$!/!3!.!/%#*%"%*0(5+..!(0! O+..!(0%+*+!""%%!*0B^[[@,gBZZPB1.0$!.)+.!?/%40!!*,0%!*0/3$+$ /$+.0Og^3!!'/P/0%((/1""!.! ,++.0!*D5!.+10+)!3%0$.!1..%*#
.!(,/!/B$!/!,0%!*0/3!.!$.0!.%/! 5$%#$!./5),0+)(!2!(/O"+.
,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/A,gBZ]P(.! 5".+)0$!/0.0+"0.!0)!*0B
00%/0%((5/%#*%"%*0,.! %0+./+"[ZD5!.*+*D.!)%//%+*?$!*!?3!.!(!2!(
* 1.0%+*+",+/%0%2!/5),0+)/"0!.%*(1/%+** /0.0+"0.!0)!*0?* +"
0$!,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/?$((1%*0%+*/3!.!B"0$!*!#0%2!/5),0+)/?""!0%2!
"(00!*%*#/0++ +10//5),0+)3%0$$%#$!./+.!/0/0.0+"0.!0)!*0%*0!*D
5!.*+*D.!)%00! ,0%!*0/?$+3!2!.%0 % *+0
0+0$!/00%/0%(,.! %0%+*+"
*+*D.!)%//%+*B
80
Table 10. Baseline characteristics of ten-year non-remitted and remitted patients.
Symptomatic non-remission (N=87) Symptomatic remission (N=87)
Analysis
Being from ED area
Male gender
Core schizophrenia
N (%)
48(55)
54 (62)
56 (64)
N (%)
53 (61)
43 (49)
50 (58)
OR
.83
1.92
1.29
95% CI
.46-1.52
.92-3.97
.7-2.37
Chi2
.35
2.82
.66
p
.56
.09
.42
Drug abuse
24 (28)
15(17)
1.92
.92-3.97
3.1
.08
Mean (SD)
28.0 (9.4)
Mean (SD)
28.7 (9.1)
T
-0.51
Df
172
p
.61
1.1(1.2)
0.7(1.5)
1.8 (1.3)
0.5(1.3)
0.8 (1.0)
0.8 (1.4)
1.6 (1.0)
0.7 (1.3)
1.57
-0.73
1.48
-1.07
169
169
169
169
.12
.47
.14
.29
16.2(4.2)
21.2 (8.7)
7.3(3.3)
11.4 (3.8)
9.3 (4.5)
28.6 (7.5)
31.0 (10.8)
27.4 (19.8)
14.2 (4.1)
19.1 (7.2)
7.2 (3.4)
12.5 (4.2)
9.6 (4.3)
29.7 (6.5)
32.0 (10.5)
17.1 (16.4)
3.12
1.73
0.26
-1.91
-0.33
-1.04
-.61
3.73
172
172
172
172
172
172
172
166
.002
.09
.80
.06
.75
.30
.55
.000
21.6 (23.9)
7.3 (16.7)
4.56
154
.000
44.8 (13.5)
44.2 (13.8)
0.27
172
.79
46.7 (13.9)
39.3 (19.5)
2.84
168
.005
39.8 (16.1)
38.5 (17.0)
0.49
172
.63
39.5 (19.4)
30.2 (22.8)
2.89
171
.004
17.2 (18.2)
14.6 (14.4)
1.03
172
.31
13.1 (19.2)
7.3 (15.2)
2.19
171
.03
N (%)
32 (37)
N (%)
15 (17)
OR
4.3
95% CI
2.0-9.2
Chi2
15.4
p
.000
25 (29)
12 (13.8)
2.5
1.2-5.4
5.8
.016
Median (Range)
Median (Range)
Mann-Whitney U
Z
p
Age
PAS score
Childhood social
Social change
Childhood academic
Academic change
PANSS component
Positive
Negative
Cognitive
Depressive
Excitative
GAF symptom
GAF function
Weeks in psychosis, total,
first year
Weeks in psychosis, total,
second year
Weeks in psychotherapy,
first year
Weeks in psychotherapy,
second year
Weeks on antipsychotics,
first year
Weeks on antipsychotics,
second year
Weeks as inpatient
first year
Weeks as inpatient second
year
One relapse or more first
year
Continuously psychotic
first year
DUP (weeks)
8 (0-520)
4 (0-416)
3009.5
-2.3
.02
Weeks to first remission
13 (1- >520)
9 (1-401)
3289.5
-1.5
.14
81
6. Dicussion
6.1 Variation in DUP
6.1.1 Decreasing salience of psychiatric information
3/(!.(5,.+(+*#! 3$!*0$!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*//0+,,! %*\ZZ\D
\ZZ^B+3!2!.?1,+*.!D%*0.+ 10%+*?0$!.!3/*+/$+.0!*%*#.! 10%+*
".+)\ZZ_?0(!/0*+01*0%(\ZZcB$%/)5/1##!/0!.0%* !#.!!+"/01.0%+*
%*0$!I).'!0J+",/5$+(+#%(* ,/5$%0.%3.!*!//* %*"+.)0%+*B
*
[cca?3$!*
/0.0! ?0$!.!3/2!.5(%00(!%*"+.)0%+*2%((!0$.+1#$
#!*!.()! %B%"0!!*5!./(0!.?$+3!2!.?/1$%*"+.)0%+*%/.! %(52%((!?
* ,!.$,/ !*%! ?+.+2!.(++'! ?+.%#*+.! B
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/)5$2!
(+/0/+)!+"0$!%./(%!*!B+.!%*"+.)0%+*+10,/5$+(+#%(* ,/5$%0.%
%((*!//)5$2!(! 0+$%010%+*+*0$!,.0+"0$!,1(%B$%/+1( $2!$ *%),0+*%*"+.)0%+*.!/,+*/!* $!(,/!!'%*#!$2%+1.B(/+?!.0%*
)+1*0+" !/!*/%0%/0%+** $%010%+*)5$2!""!0! )!*0($!(0$
3+.'!./3%0$%*0.!0)!*0/5/0!)0$0$ '*+3*
"+.()+/003+ ! !/B
4,!.%!*! (%*%%*//1,!.2%/%*#*+2%!/)5$2!(+/0/+)!+"0$!%*%0%(
!*0$1/%/)* $!*!?0$!!.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/* )%#$0$2!
!+)!(!//!),$/%/! B
6.1.2 Expanded focus of information campaigns may have led to
expanded population
*+0$!.(%*!+".!/+*%*#+*!.*/0$!+*0!*0+"0$!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
0$.+1#$0$! %""!.!*0
,$/!/B$!5!.\ZZa3/$.0!.%6! 5(+*#!.
82
)! %*10(/+*!4,*/%+*+"0$!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/H"+1/0+
%*(1 %*#/1/0*!D%* 1! ,/5$+/%/B!.$,//(%#$0(5.+ !.* ,.0(5
%""!.!*0,+,1(0%+*3/.!$! B$%#$!.0.!0! %*% !*!"+.0$05!.,+%*0/
%*0$0 %.!0%+*O,$@PB$!.!/!.(%!.%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/$ )+.!
%*"+.)0%+*+10,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/O%B!BI
"/+)!+*!5+1'*+3!+)!/
!4!//%2!(5%*0!.!/0! %*.!(%#%+*+.,$%(+/+,$5?+.$%/+.$!./0('/0.0/0+
!+)!%*+),.!$!*/%(!?%0+1( !/%#*+" !2!(+,%*#,/5$+/%/JP?0$!.!3/
*+3/+)!3$0)+.!"+1/+*/5),0+)///+%0! 3%0$/1/0*!1/!OI
"
/+)!+*!5+1'*+3/1
!*(5/0.0/3%0$ .3%*#".+)/+%(+),*5?+.
!+)!/%* %""!.!*0+100$!%.,,!.*!BJPB$%/)5$2!%*"(1!*! .!/1(0/?
!2!*%",0%!*0/3%0$/1/0*!D%* 1! ,/5$+/%/3!.!!4(1 ! ".+)0$!
*(5/%/B!.$,/0$!/!),%#*/)5$2!)%//! /+)!+"0$!,+/%0%2!
/5),0+)?10!?/$+.0,0%!*0/B
6.2 Information campaigns were associated with DUP
$!"%* %*#0$03///+%0! 3%0$0$!,.!/!*!+"%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
%/%*(%*!3%0$,.!2%+1/"%* %*#/B
*"+.)0%+*),%#*/?3$!*"+1//! +*
.!(0%2!(5(!.,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/?,.+),02!.5-1%'$!(,/!!'%*#%*,0%!*0/
3%0$10!+*/!0* M+.,.+)%*!*0,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B$!.!/1(0%//$+.0!*%*#
+")! %*B!/1(0/+2!.((/!!)0+%* %0!0$0%0%/%),+.0*00+'!!,
(!.?/0! 5"+1/B
6.2.1 Help-seeking delays and health-system delays
0%!*0/*!.!"!..! 0+
!%0$!.2%0$! !0!0%+*0!)/?+. %.!0(5".+)
$!(0$.!3+.'!./B!$2!,.!2%+1/(5/$+3*0$00$! !0!0%+*0!)/0!* 0+
.!.1%05+1*#?)(!,0%!*0/3%0$%*/% %+1/%((*!//+*/!0/O+$**!//!*!0
83
(B?\ZZaPB$%/05,!+"+*/!0)5! %""%1(00+ !0!0"+.")%(5* !2!*$!(0$
,.+"!//%+*(/?* +*"!./ !(5%*+..!0 %#*+/%/* !-10!0.!0)!*0B
$!/!,0%!*0/?0$!%.")%(%!/+..!./?+.0$!%.$!(0$,.+"!//%+*(/?)5$2!
3%0! "+.(+*#!.!"+.!0$!5 !% !0+/!!' 2%!B1.0$!.)+.!?/+)!+"0$!)
)5!2!*$2!.!!%2! 0.!0)!*0%*/,!%(%/0)!*0($!(0$.!/!.2%!/?
3%0$+10.!!%2%*# %#*+/%/* 0.!0)!*0"+.,/5$+/%/B%!3! %*0$%/35?
!0!0%+*0!)/)5/$+.0!*$!(0$D/5/0!) !(5/?3$%(!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/
0+(.#!.!40!*0/$+.0!*$!(,D/!!'%*# !(5/B!.$,/%*"101.!3+.'?*!#0%2!
/%#*/* /5),0+)//$+1( /0%((!
.!//! ?10)+.!"+1//$+1( ,!.$,/!
,(! +*)!//#!/5%*#AI
"%* +10?((1/"+. 2%!JB
6.3 No symptom differences at ten years
6.3.1 Selective attrition
%* %*#/.!#. %*#/5),0+)(!2!(/3!.!+*0..50+!4,!00%+*/* ,.!2%+1/
"%* %*#/B+)!+"0$%/)5!!4,(%*! 50$!/!(!0%2!00.%0%+*B//$+3*?
)*#! 0+'!!,$%#$!.*1)!.+",++.D,.+#*+/%/,0%!*0/3%0$$%#$(!2!(/+"
/5),0+)/%*0$!/01 53$%(!+*0$!+0$!.$* ?(/+$ (+3!.)!*
*!#0%2!? !,.!//%2!* +#*%0%2!/5),0+)//+.! 1.%*#0$!"%./0"%2!5!./
O./!*!0(B?\Z[[@./!*!0(B?\ZZa@!((!!0(B?\ZZb@!((!!0(B?\ZZ^PB
0
/!!)/0$0+10+)!/3!.!)+.!,+(.%6! 0$*+@$%#$!.,!.!*0#!+"
,0%!*0/3%0$2!.5#++ ?* $%#$!.,!.!*0#!,0%!*0/3%0$2!.5,++.
/5),0+)+10+)!B
0)5!0$!/!0$0,.!2!*0! /5),0+) !2!(+,)!*0
%*/1#.+1,+",0%!*0/?10(/+'!,0$%#$D/5),0+),0%!*0/%*0$!/01 5?
3$!.!/%*+?(.#!.,.0+"0$!,0%!*0/$ /5),0+)/ !.!/%*#0$.+1#$
0$!"+((+3D1,,!.%+ ?,.0(5 1!0+(+//+"$%#$D/5),0+),0%!*0/B
84
6.3.2 Relatively short NoED DUP
$!)! %*+"[`3!!'/%*0$!+.!3//$+.0!.0$*%*)+/0+0$!.
/01 %!/O0(!
,,!* %4PB$%/)5$2!.%/! 0$!0$.!/$+( "+. !)+*/0.0%*#
%""!.!*!/%*/5),0+)/!2!.%05!03!!*0$!.!/B$!+.! % *+0$2!
*D,.+#.))!?100$!.!3/0!)+".!/!.$!./.!.1%0%*#,0%!*0/"+.0$!
/01 5B
*/+)!35/?0$%/0!))5$2!0! (%'!*00!*10! 2!./%+*+"
!0!0%+*0!)B+3!2!.?0$!.!(0%2!(5/$+.0+?+)%*! 3%0$+10+)!
%/ 2*0#!/%*0$!"%./0"%2!"+((+3D1,5!./?)5(/+/1##!/00$00%2!
,/5$+/%/%*%0/!.(5,$/!)5!)+.!.,% (5,.+#.!//%2!0$*%/.!(%/! B
6.4 Higher recovery rates in ED
$!$%#$!..!+2!.5.0!/%*/$+30$0%*0!.2!*%*#!.(5)5,.!D!),0/+)!
+"0$!(+*#D0!.)/+%( )#!/++"0!*%),(%! 5,/5$+/%/B
0/$+3/0$0
/%#*%"%*0(5)+.!,0%!*0/$ "2+1.(!+10+)!/%*/,%0!+""+1.+10+""%2!
)!*/5),0+)(!2!(/!%*#!-1(?* +*!!%*#$%#$!.B+.!+2!.?%0)%#$0!
0$0/1/0%*! (+3!.(!2!(/+"*!#0%2!/5),0+)/+2!.0$!"%./0"%2!5!./+"0$!
"+((+3D1,,!.%+ $2!,.!2!*0! /+)!+"0$!%+(+#%((5)! %0! !(%*!* %0/+*/!-1!*!/"+.(!2!(+""1*0%+*%*#B3!*05D/!2!*,!.!*0+",0%!*0/
$ "1((D0%)!!),(+5)!*0+./01 %!/?+),.! 0+[Zd%*0$!+.!B$%/%/
$%#$,!.!*0#!%*+),.%/+*3%0$+0$!./01 %!/O.3$* +$*/+*?\ZZ^@
!((!!0(B?\ZZZP?!/,!%((5+*/% !.%*#0$00$!/),(!+*/%/0! +"`_d
,0%!*0/3%0$+.!/$%6+,$.!*%/,!0.1) %#*+/%/O+10]Zd/$%6+,$.!*%
+*(5?/!!,$DPB
85
6.4.1 Criticism of interpretation of results
+)!,+%*0/+".%0%%/)$2!!!*.%/! .!#. %*#0$!%*0!.,.!00%+*+"
"%* %*#/B+.%*/0*!?)+.!,0%!*0/%*0$!+.!(%2! %* !,!* !*0(5%*
+),.%/+*0+0$!.!B$%/"0$/!!*,10"+.3. /*!#0%2!.!/1(0"+.
O)+/?\Z[\PB+3!2!.?%*^bB^d?/+,,+/! 0+[a?cd%*+?+"0$!/!
,0%!*0/3!.!(/+.!+2!.! B$1/?)+.!+,0%!*0/3!.!(%2%*#
%* !,!* !*0(5%*/,%0!+"/5),0+)/* "1*0%+*(%),%.)!*0+),.! 0+
,0%!*0/B//1$?(%2%*#%* !,!* !*0(5%*%0/!("**+0!2(% %* %0+.+"
+10+)!B
+)!
%0%+*(.%0%%/)$/!!*.%/! .!#. %*#0$!,.!/!*00%+*+"0$!/!
.!/1(0/O)+/?\Z[\PB*!,+%*0+*!.*/$+/,%0(%/0%+*B
03/.!,+.0! /
/%#*%"%*0(5$%#$!.%*0$*%*+00$!"%2!D5!."+((+3D1,?* +)%00! (0+#!0$!.%*0$!,.!/!*00%+*+"0$!0!*D5!.+),.%/+*B$!-1!/0%+*3$!0$!.
$+/,%0(%/0%+*+1( !+*"+1* %*#2.%(!%*"(1!*%*#.!+2!.5.0!/3/
.%/! B+3!2!.?+*(5*+*D.!)%00! * 0$!.!5?*+*D.!+2!.! ,0%!*0/$2!
$%#$!..0!/+"$+/,%0(%/0%+*B
03/*+0.!,+.0! /!,.0!(5/%*!*+*!+"0$!
$+/,%0(%/! ,0%!*0/3!.!+1*0! /$2%*#"2+1.(!+10+)!B$!5(($ $ /5),0+)/ 1.%*#0$!(/05!.?* 3!.!*!%0$!..!)%00! *+..!+2!.! B
*+0$!.,+%*0+*!.*/!),(+5)!*0/001/B$!.!3/*+M+ %""!.!*!0
0$!"%2!D5!."+((+3D1,O./!*!0(B?\Z[[P?10/%#*%"%*0 2*0#!00!*
5!./?* 0$!.!/1(0/,.!/!*00%+*%/.%0%%6! "+.*+0,.+2% %*#"1.0$!.
%*"+.)0%+*B+3!2!.?0$!)!/1.!!),(+5! 0"%2!5!./3/3+.'h\Z$+1./
3!!'B00!*5!./?0$!.!3/(/+*+ %""!.!*!+*0$%/)!/1.!OA]\Bad@
+A\aB^d@+
/.0%+A[B]@c_d+*"% !*!%*0!.2(ZBaD\B_PB$!/0.%0!.
)!/1.!+""1((D0%)!!),(+5)!*01/! 00$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,/$+3! 86
/%#*%"%*0 2*0#!O!-*CPB$!.%0%%/)* +1..!/,+*/!.! %/,(5! %*0$!,,!* %4B
6.5 Prediction of non-remission
6.5.1 Negative and positive illness trajectories
$!.!/1(0/".+)0$%//01 5/1##!/00$0(%*%%*//$+1( !(!.0"%*#
0.!0)!*0*+*D.!/,+*/!+",+/%0%2!?* !/,!%((5$((1%*0+.5?/5),0+)/B
!.$,/)+.!/0.%*#!*0)+*%0+.%*#+",0%!*0/H/5),0+)(!2!(/* /.10%*%/%*#
+"0.!0)!*0/$+1( !%*0.+ 1! %*+1.)!*0($!(0$.!/5/0!)B
0$/!!*/$+3*%*,.!2%+1/,1(%0%+*".+)+1.#.+1,0$0"(0""!0+2!.
0$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,/,*3///+%0! 3%0$+0$*+*D.!)%//%+** *+*D
.!+2!.5O2!*/!*!0(B?\Z[\PB+3!2!.?*!%0$!.0$!*!#0%2!/5),0+)
+),+*!*0*+.""!0%2!"(00!*%*#0/0.0+"0.!0)!*0/00%/0%((5,.! %0! 0!*D5!.*+*D.!)%//%+*B$%/"%* %*#)5!%*(%*!3%0$"%* %*#/".+),.!2%+1/
.!/!.$O)/(!5?\ZZc@1.!6* .+?\ZZbP?%* %0%*#0$0*!#0%2!
/5),0+)/* "1*0%+*+*0$!+*!$* ?* ,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/+*0$!+0$!.
$* ?"+((+3 %""!.!*00.&!0+.%!/B
0/!!)/0$0%*0$!"%./05!./"0!./01 5
%*(1/%+*???*!#0%2!? !,.!//%2!* +#*%0%2!/5),0+)/"+((+3/%)%(.
0.&!0+.%!/B
*0$!0!*D5!.,!./,!0%2!?0$%/%/0$!/!"+.?*!#0%2!
/5),0+)/* "1*0%+*%*#+*0$!+*!$* ?* ,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/* .!)%//%+*+*0$!+0$!.$* B!.$,/0$!%*0!*/%05+"*1* !.(5%*#!..*0
%+(+#%(,.+!//?#%2%*#.%/!0+*!#0%2!* +#*%0%2!O !"%%0P/5),0+)/?%/
)101((5//+%0! 3%0$0$!.!/%(%!*!+",+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B$!)+.!!..*0
0$!1* !.(5%*#%((*!//,.+!//%/?0$!)+.!.!/%/0*0(/+0$!,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B
/0$!.!%/*+0.!0)!*00+ 5!""!0%2!"+. !"%%0/5),0+)/?0$!350+..!/0
0$%/,.+!//%/0+)'!,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/.!)%0B$!.!0$%/%/*+0,+//%(!?%0
87
)%#$0%* %0!)+.!/!2!.!1* !.(5%*#,.+!//B/)+/0,0%!*0/ +#+%*0+
.!)%//%+*3%0$%*0$!"%./05!./+"0.!0)!*0?$*!/0+..!/00$01* !.(5%*#
,.+!//%*.!/!/?%*01.*%*.!/%*#$*!/+".!+2!.5B
",0%!*0/ +*+0.!)%0?
0$!$*!/0+..!/00$!%((*!//,.+#.!//%+*?%B!B*!#0%2!/5),0+)/? %)%*%/$!/B
$%/3+1( !%*(%*!3%0$"%* %*#/".+)+0$!..!/!.$/1##!/0%*#0$0!.(5
0.!0)!*0.!/,+*/!,.! %0/.!)%//%+** .!+2!.5O)/(!5?\ZZcPB((%*((?
"%* %*#//1##!/00$00$!.!%/*!#0%2!D"1*0%+*( %)!*/%+** ,+/%0%2!
%)!*/%+*?)+2%*#(+*# %""!.!*010%*0!. !,!* !*04!/B
6.5.2 Non-compliance
*+0$!.%//1!+*!.*/*+*D+),(%*!B+)!,0%!*0/3%0$$((1%*0%+*/)5
$2!,+/%0%2!00%01 !/0+3. /0$!)?* 0$%/)5.!/1(0%*0.!0)!*0*+*D
+),(%*!O+.%06!0(B?\Z[\P?#%*(! %*#0+3+./!+10+)!O((!0
(B?\ZZ`PB
*(%*%(3+.'+*!*(/++/!.2!,0%!*0/3$+.!".% 0+#!0.% +"+)*%,+0!*0* 0$.!0!*%*#2+%!/?"!.%*#.!,!.1//%+*/B! % *+0$2!
0+*.!/+*/"+.*+*D+),(%*!!%0$!..!#. %*#,$.)+(+#%(+.
,/5$+(+#%(0.!0)!*0B! % $+3!2!.$2! 0+*X*+*D+),(%*!J+*0$!
$* +",/5$%0.%/0/* ,/5$+(+#%/0/0.!0%*#0$!,0%!*0/B
*/,%0!+"!.(5* ,!./%/0%*#/5),0+)/?0!*D5!.*+*D.!)%00!./ % *+0.!!%2!)+.!0.!0)!*0
1.%*#0$!"%./05!.?*!%0$!.%*0!.)/+",/5$+0$!.,5*+.)! %0%+*B0
%* %0!0$0,0%!*0/3%0$.!(,/%*#* .!)%00%*#,/5$+/%/3!.!,.0%1(.(5
I,.+*!J0+%*0!..1,0%+*+")! %0%+*?!/,!%((5%*B1.0$!.)+.!?(+6,%*!
3/*+00.%! 1.%*#0$!"%./05!.+"0.!0)!*0!4!,0"+.%*"+1.,0%!*0/?!2!*
0$+1#$0$!)! %0%+*(#+.%0$).!+))!* ! +%*#/+"0!./%4D)+*0$/+"*+*D
.!/,+*/!0+0.!0)!*0B
88
6.6 ED, DUP, symptoms, and outcome
$!.!(0%+*/$%,!03!!*??/5),0+)/* +10+)!,,!./0+!
+),(!4B
%./0?0$!,0%!*0/ %/,(5)+.!/!2!.!!4%00%2!/5),0+)/?1000$!/)!
0%)!0$!5$2!$%#$!..!+2!.5.0!/B+)!+"0$%/%*+*/%/0!*5)5!
!4,(%*! 50$!"00$00$!$%#$!.!4%00%2!/5),0+)(!2!(/3!.!"+1* )+*#
0$!*+*D.!+2!.! ,0%!*0/+*(5?%B!B+*0.+((%*#"+..!+2!.5?0$! %""!.!*!%/
!(%)%*0! B
!+* ?(+3!.*!#0%2!/5),0+)/* %* !,!* !*0(5,.! %0! (+*#D0!.)
.!+2!.5?10 % *+0B*!!4,(%*%*#"0+.)5!0$0(+3!.! 0$!
/5),0+)0$.!/$+( "+..!"!..(@$!*!0$0$ *!""!0!/% !/.! 1%*#
B1.0$!.)+.!?".+)0$!/!.!/1(0/%0,,!./0$00$!.!%/*//+%0%+*
!03!!** .!+2!.5?)! %0! 5*!#0%2!/5),0+)/B.+)0$!(%*!.
)%4! !""!0/)+ !(/?+*!+1( /,!1(0!0$0,.!2!*0! /5),0+)
!2!(+,)!*0?3$%(!%*+?$%#$!./5),0+)(!2!(/ %)%*%/$! +2!.0%)!B
*!#0%2!/5),0+)(!2!(/3!.!/%#*%"%*0(5(+3!.((0$.+1#$0$!"%./05!./+"0$!
"+((+3D1,,!.%+ B
0%/,+//%(!0$00$!(+3!./5),0+)(!2!(/+2!.0%)!
"%(%00! )+.!"2+1.(!"1*0%+*(+10+)!B
$%. ?,0%!*0/,.!/!*0%*#0+0.!0)!*03%0$(+*#* $%#$!./5),0+)
(!2!(/+1( !)+.!(%'!(50+!.!/%/0*00+0$!%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/A+
('%*/%#$0?0+!%0$!.0$!)/!(2!/+.0$!%.")%(%!/!)+.!%* !*%(?0+$2!,++.
/+%(*!03+.'/*+0%*0!.2!*%*#?0+$2!%*/% %+1/*!#0%2!+*/!0/?+.((+"0$!
+2!B$!/!.!((,++.,.+#*+/0%"0+./B(+*#%*%/)+.!!40.!)!
!2!*00$*(+*#%*+?!1/!%0+1./%*/,%0!+"0$!)//%2!
!""+.0/B$!"00$0%*?*+*D.!+2!.! ,0%!*0/$ (+*#!.?3$%(!%*
+?0$%/3/*+00$!/!?/1,,+.0/0$%/*+0%+*B
89
(+*#%*+)5$2!)!*0(+*#D/0* %*#)%( ?)+.!!*%#*/5),0+)/?
3$%(!%*?%0)5)+.!+"0!*$2!)!*0,++.D,.+#*+/%/05,!/5),0+)/B
*/1)?(! 0+(+3!./5),0+)/(!2!(/0,.!/!*00%+*B$%/)5$2!/!0+10
)+.!"2+1.(!0.&!0+.5".+)0$!!#%**%*#"+.0$!0!*D5!..!+2!.! ,0%!*0/?3%0$(!//*!#0%2!/5),0+)/?* ,.!2%(%*#%*0+0$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,B
+.0$+/!3%0$$%#$/5),0+)(!2!(/%*/,%0!+"?,.+#*+/%/3/,++.B
90
7. Methodological considerations
7.1 Measurement challenges in the DUP study
!/1.!)!*0+",.!/1,,+/!//0.0%*#,+%*0?1/1((50+ +3%0$0$!
!)!.#!*!+",/5$+0%/5),0+)/?/3!((/*!* ,+%*0?1/1((50$!/0.0+"
/+)!0.!0)!*0B$0/5),0+)/ !"%*!0$!/0.0%*#,+%*0+",/5$+/%/* /1/!-1!*00.!0)!*0*!2%!3! /*%//1!+"+*/0.102(% %05B
0
.!,.!/!*0//!2!.($((!*#!/B
%./0?.!/!.$$//$+3*0$0,0%!*0/ !2!(+,%*#,/5$+/%/1* !.#+
!0!.%+.0%+*+"/+%("1*0%+*%*#3!((!"+.!0$!!)!.#!*!+"+2!.0,/5$+0%
/5),0+)/O./!*!0(B?\ZZ^PB1.0$!.)+.!?/%#*/* /5),0+)//1$/
*4%!05? %//+%0%+*D(%'!/5),0+)/+.J/%/5),0+)/JO"*!.!0(B?[cc\P?
/$%6+% ,!./+*(%050.%0/O%((!.!0(B?\ZZ\P? !,.!//%+*?,.+(!)/
+*!*0.0%*#?,!.!,01(*+.)(%0%!/?* +2!.2(1! % !/O1*#!0(B?\ZZbP
$2!!!*,10"+.3. /,+//%(!!.(5/0#!/+",/5$+/%/B(/+?%*+10aZd+"
,0%!*0/3%0$,/5$+/%/?*!#0%2!* +#*%0%2!/5),0+)/3!.!0$!"%./00+
!)!.#!O"*!.!0(B?[cc\PB$!/!/%#*/* /5),0+)/('0$!/,!%"%%05
*!! ! 0+%*(1 !0$!)%* !"%*%0%+*+"B$!.!"+.!?%/ !"%*! %/.!#. %*#*5 !0!.%+.0%2!%((*!//,.+!//!/(! %*#0+,/5$+/%/?"+1//%*#
+*/,!%"%/5),0+)/(%'!$((1%*0%+*/? !(1/%+*/?%6..!0$+1#$0* M+.
!$2%+1.?* %/+.#*%/0%+*?%*/,%0!+"0$!,.+(!$%#$%),+.0*!+",.!D
,/5$+0% !0!.%+.0%+*B
!+* ?,0%!*0/)5$2!$ .%!"?%*0!.)%00!*0,/5$+0%!,%/+ !/B!3/01 %!/
/,!%"53$!0$!.0$!.!,+.0! %/1)1(0%2!?
%*#/1$!,%/+ !/0+I(/0J
B
91
$%. ?"!3/01 %!//,!%"5".!-1!*5?/!2!.%05* *1)!.+"/5),0+)/B!*!?
,0%!*0/3%0$/%)%(./)5$2!!!*!4,+/! 0+2!.5 %""!.!*0I +/!/J+"
,/5$+/%/O+),0+*!0(B?\Z[[PB
%)%(.2.%%(%05$/!!*+/!.2! "+.0$!!* ,+%*0B$!)+/03% !(51/! .%0!.%.!$+/,%0( )%//%+*+./0.0+"0.!0)!*03%0$*0%D,/5$+0%/B.+1(!
.%/!/3$!*,0%!*0/$2!.!!%2! /+)!0.!0)!*0!.(%!. 1.%*#?10*+0
I !-10!(5J?(/+*+"0!*0%)!/2#1!(5 !"%*! 0!)B1.0$!.)+.!?0$!10$+./
/00!?%0.!)%*/-1!/0%+*3$!0$!.%0%/*+00.1!0$0/05%*#,/5$+0% !/,%0!
I !-10!J0.!0)!*0%// !0.%)!*0(0+)!*0($!(0$/1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B
!*!0(BO !*!0(B?\ZZ]P%*0.+ 1! %*(1 %*#0.!0! *+*D.!)%00%*#
,/5$+/%/%*0+3% !*! +*!,0+"/,+//%(!/+(10%+*B((%*((?0$!.!
.!()+/0/)*5 !"%*%0%+*/+"/0$!.!.!/01 %!/O0(!
PB
!0$+ /+"//!//)!*0(/+2.5".+)/01 50+/01 5B
0/!!)/(!#%0%)0!0+/'
3$5/0* . %/! )!/1.!$/*+0!!*$+/!** %),(!)!*0! B+)!
%*/0.1)!*0/$2!!!* !2!(+,! B$!/!%*(1 !0$!!%/!./(!O!%/!.!0
(B?[cc]P?0$!5),0+)/*/!0%*$%6+,$.!*%%*2!*0+.5OPO!.'%*/!0
(B?\ZZZP?0$!
*0!.2%!3"+.0$!.!0.+/,!0%2!//!//)!*0+"$%6+,$.!*%
O
PO"*!.!0(B?[cc\P* 0$!+00%*#$)*/!0$! 1(!OPO%*#$!0
(B?\ZZ_PB((+"0$!/!.!/!)%D/0.101.! %*0!.2%!3/B1.,.%/%*#(5$+3!2!.?0$!.!
%/*+/0* . %/! )!/1.!%*1/!.+///01 %!/* +1*0.%!/?(%'!0$!.!%/"+.
/5),0+)///!//)!*0O(%'!"+.%*/0*!0$!3$%$%/3% !(51/! P* /%*!.!!*0(5?.!)%//%+*.%0!.%O* .!/!*!0(B?\ZZ_PB1.0$!.)+.!?.!(%%(%05
//!//)!*0/+".!)%//%*#%*)+/0/01 %!/B
*
?3/)!/1.! 1/%*#I((2%((!/+1.!/+"%*"+.)0%+*J?2%#*!00!/3!.!/+.! ?* +*/!*/1/
.!$! B!(%%(%053/!/0%)0! ?* 3/2!.5$%#$O%ZBccP?,.+(5 1!0+
(.#!/,.! %*0$! %/0.%10%+*B+3!2!.?0$!.!3!.!*+/0* . %/! %*/0.1)!*0/2%((!%*+.3!#%*3$!*
/0.0! )!/1.%*#%*[cc]B
92
*+0$!. )!/1.!)!*0 %//1! +*!.*/ /01 5 ,+,1(0%+*/ * 0$!%. %/0.%10%+*/B.#!!0(BO.#!!0(B?\ZZbP+* 10! )!0D*(5/%/+*a
/01 %!/ ,.+2% %*# %* %2% 1( ,0%!*0
0? * %/+2!.! $+3 /'!3! %/0.%10%+*/ +" %*"(1!*! *+0 +*(5 )!* 2(1!/? 10 (/+ )! %* 2(1!/
.!,+.0! B(.#!,.+,+.0%+*+*,0%!*0/O][\+10+"_Z]P,.!/!*0! 0+0.!0)!*0
3%0$+"+*!3!!'+.(!//B!+/!.2! 0$0"0!.+"+*!3!!'+.(!//?
3$!*0$!.!%/I1('J+",0%!*0/,.!/!*0%*#?(+#.%0$)%2.%(!/$+3! (%*!..!(0%+*/$%,0+*1)!.+",0%!*0/ )%00! ?3%0$"!3+10(%!./3%0$2!.5
(+*# B *+0$!. $((!*#! %/ 0$0 )*5 +" 0$! /01 %!/ .!,+.0%*# %*(1 !
%""!.!*0 %#*+/0%#.+1,/B
"%*(,+%*0+"+*!.*%/0$!*(5/%/+"0$!2.%(!B0$!..!/!.$
%* %0!/0$!.!)%#$0!.%0%(!5+* 3$%$,.+#*+/%/3+./!*/
O++*/0.!0(B?\Z[\P?0$.!/$+( ,$!*+)!*+*3$%$3+1( *+0!,01.! 5
(%*!.2.%(!B
*"101.!.!/!.$?+10+)!/$+1( ,!.$,/!%*2!/0%#0! %*.!(0%+*0+/1$.%0%(2(1!?* !4,(+.%*#%0/.!(0%+*0++0$!.,.+#*+/0%
"0+./B
1.0$!.)+.!? 1.0%+*+"*!#0%2!/5),0+)/)5!)!.#!/*%),+.0*0
2.%(!?+*/% !.%*#%0/,.+(!.!(0%+*0+* 0$!%),+.0*!+"*!#0%2!
/5),0+)/"+..!+2!.5B
7.2 Cohort effects
$!.!.!/+)!,.+(!)/+*!.*%*#+),.%(%05.+//0$! %""!.!*0,$/!/+"
0$!
/01 5B%./0?0$!,%(+0,$/!$ /%#*%"%*0(5)+.!,0%!*0/3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%+./$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %/+. !.* (!//3%0$/$%6+""!0%2!
%/+. !.?+),.! 0+/1/!-1!*0,$/!/B(/+?0$%//),(!+*/%/0! +"
93
$+/,%0(%/! ,0%!*0/+*(5?* **+0,///*!,% !)%+(+#%(/),(!B!+* ?
0$! %#*+/0%0!#+.5,/5$+/%/3/1/! "+./%#*%"%*0(5)+.!,0%!*0/%*
]* ^+),.! 0+
[* 0$!,%(+0,$/!O,$CPB$%. ?/01 5
+2!.%*#0%)!D/,*+"[b5!./+2!..*#!+"/+%!0(* 1(01.($*#!/
*+0%*(1 ! /2.%(!/B+.%*/0*!? 1.%*#0$!0%)!,!.%+ [cc]D\Z[Z?0$!
%*0!.*!03/%*0.+ 1! 0+I!2!.5+*!J* #.!30+!+)!)%*)//)! %1)
* )!*/+"+))1*%0%+*B+%(!0!(!,$+*!/* 0!40%*#(/+$*#! $+3
,!+,(!.!(0!* +))1*%0!B1.0$!.)+.!?%))%#.0%+*%*.!/! * 0$!
.!!)!)+.!%*0!.*0%+*(@!03!!*\ZZZ* \Z[Z?0$!,!.!*0#!+""%./0D
* /!+* D#!*!.0%+*%))%#.*0/* "+.!%#*%0%6!*/.+/!".+)+10[`0+
\`dO333B//B*+PB
*+)!/.+/! .)0%((5@!03!!*\ZZ^* \Z[Z(+*!?
)! %*%*+)!,!.$+1/!$+( %*.!/! 5\ad"0!.04B((%*((?*!3+$+.0/
.+1#$0*!3#!*!.0%+*/+",0%!*0/* ")%(%!/?3$+)!0+#!%**%*)*5
35/ %""!.!*0!*2%.+*)!*00$*0$!%.,.! !!//+./B!*!?0$!.!.!)*5
"0+./+0$!.0$*$*#%*#%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/0$0)5$2!%*"(1!*! .!/1(0/B!*+*(5/,!1(0!+100$!/!B
**5/!?+),.%/+*//$+1( !
$* (! 3%0$10%+*B
7.3 Internal and external validity in the ED-NoED
comparison
*0!.*( 2(% %05 %/ 0$! !40!*0 0+ 3$%$ +*(1/%+* +" /01 5 %/ 3..*0! B +*"+1* !.?+.+*"+1* %*#2.%(!?%/2.%(!*+0 !"%*! * /01 %! %*0$!
!4,!.%)!*0( )+ !(? 10 *!2!.0$!(!// %*"(1!*%*# 0$! !,!* !*0 * M+. 0$!
%* !,!* !*02.%(!B+*"+1* !./*!/!!*/(0!.*0%2!!4,(*0%+*/"+.*
+/!.2! !""!0%**!4,!.%)!*0?* 0$!.!50$.!0!*%*0!.*(2(% %05B
94
40!.*( 2(% %05 .!"!./ 0+ 0$! #!*!.(%/%(%05 +" .!/1(0/ ".+) * !4,!.%)!*0 0+
+0$!. ,+,1(0%+*/? +0$!. /%010%+*/ * +0$!. 0%)!/ 0$* 0$! +*!/ %* 0$!
!4,!.%)!*0 %0/!("B !*!.(%/%(%05 %* 01.* !,!* / +* .!,.!/!*00%2%05 * %/
+,0%)%/! 5 .* +) /!(!0%+* +" /1&!0/? +. .* +)%/0%+* 0+ !4,!.%)!*0(
+* %0%+*/B),(%*#%/*1/!/1&!0.!(0! "0+./0+%*"(1!*!.!/1(0/%*
*1*%*0!* ! 35* 0$!.!50$.!0!*+0$%*0!.*(* !40!.*(2(% %05B$!
/)! $+( / "+. +0$!. "+.)/ +" )!0$+ +(+#%( %/B +*D.!/,+*/! %/? "+.
%*/0*!? %/ 3$!* /+)! /1&!0/ .!.1%0! "+. * !4,!.%)!*0 +. /01 5 .!
1*3%((%*# 0+ ,.0%%,0!B !(!0%2! .+,+10? )!*%*# 0$0 !.0%* /1&!0/ 3%0$
!.0%* $.0!.%/0%/ +*H0 +),(!0! 0$! !4,!.%)!*0? %/ *+0$!. "+.) +" %/B
!/,+*/! %/ +1./ 3$!* -1!/0%+*/ +. 0!/0/ +. +10+)! 2.%(!/ .!
+,!.0%+*(%6! %*/1$35/0+!(%%0!.0%*.!/,+*/!/)+.!0$*+0$!./B
+0$ +*"+1* !./ * %/!/ * "+.) (0!.*0%2! !4,(*0%+*/ 0+ * +/!.2! !""!0+* !,!* !*02.%(!%**!4,!.%)!*0B
$!
/01 5!),(+5! -1/%D!4,!.%)!*0( !/%#*"+.0$!+),.%/+*+"
2!./1/ +B $! -1/%D!4,!.%)!*0( !/%#* %/ !.%20%+* +" 0$! I0.1!J
!4,!.%)!*0( !/%#*O$ %/$!0(B?\ZZ[PB*!4,!.%)!*0( !/%#*%/.+ ),
0+ 0 +((!0%+*? *(5/%/ * %*0!.,.!00%+*B * 0$! !4,!.%)!*0( !/%#* 0$!
!""!0 +" )*%,1(0! %* !,!* !*0 2.%(! +* !,!* !*0 2.%(! %/
%*2!/0%#0! B $! %* !,!* !*0 2.%(! %/ 0$! 2.%(! )*%,1(0! 5 0$!
!4,!.%)!*0!.? "+. %*/0*! 0.!0)!*0 +. /0%)1(1/ +" 3$%$ 0$! !4,!.%)!*0!.
3*0/ 0+ '*+3 0$! !""!0B $! !,!* !*0 2.%(! %/ 0$! "0+. +* 3$%$ 0$!
!4,!.%)!*0( O%* !,!* !*0P 2.%(! %/ 0$+1#$0 0+ $2! * !""!0B * 0$!
!4,!.%)!*0? 0$!.! %/ 0 (!/0 +*! !4,!.%)!*0( +* %0%+* %* 3$%$ /1&!0/ .!
!4,+/! 0+ 0$! !4,!.%)!*0( 0.!0)!*0 +. /0%)1(1/? * 0 (!/0 +*! +*0.+(
+* %0%+* %* 3$%$ /1&!0/ .! *+0B +),.%/+* !03!!* 0$! #.+1,/ #%2!/
%*"+.)0%+* +10 0$! 1/( !""!0 +" 0$! !4,!.%)!*0( "0+.B $! %) %/ 0+
95
!4,(%* * 0+ ,.! %0B + ! (! 0+ $%!2! !4,(*0%+* * ,.! %0%+*? +*!
*!! /0+!/0(%/$!4(1/%2!1/(%05* 0$!.!"+.!0+.1(!+10((+0$!.,+//%(!
!4,(*0+.5"0+./0$*0$!+*!!%*#%*2!/0%#0! B$%/%/+"0!*.!"!..! 0+/
%*0!.*(2(% %05B),!((;0*(!5O$ %/$!0(B?\ZZ[P%*0$!%./0* . ++'
+* .!/!.$ !/%#* /1##!/0 /!2!.( /+1.!/ +" (0!.*0%2! !4,(*0%+*/? +.
+*"+1* !./* %/!/B
7.4 Circumstances
7.4.1 Spin-off effects of ED: confounders or moderators?
*!,+//%(!+*"+1* !.+*!.*/ %""!.%*#%.1)/0*!/%*0$!2!./1/+
.!/B / 0$! $%#$!. .0! +" .!+2!.5 %* * !""!0 +" 0$! *..+3(5 !"%*! ,.+#.))!? +. +1( %0 ! /+)!0$%*# !(/!? ,!.$,/ I02*#!. ""!0J
O02*#!. %/ 0$! )%* %05 %* 0$! .!P? 2!./%+* +" 0$! +*"+1* %*#
30$+.*!!""!0F02*#!.$/1%(0.!,100%+*+"!4,!.0%/!%*0$!0.!0)!*0
+" ,/5$+/%/? +0$ !1/! +" * "+. +0$!. .!/+*/B 02*#!. $/ "+. 0$!
(/0 \Z 5!./ +.#*%/! )&+. ,/5$%0.% +*"!.!*! ((! 0$! $%6+,$.!*%
5/B
0%/+,!*0+)!*0($!(0$,.+"!//%+*(/?3+.'!./%*+0$!..!(!2*0/!0+./
O"+.%*/0*!,+(%!?/$++(3+.'!./?/+%(3+.'!./P* 0$!#!*!.(,1(%B$!
+*"!.!*! (/+ $/ * !40!*/%2! 1(01.( ,.+#.))! 3%0$ .0/? (%0!.01.! * )1/%?* +""!./+,!*(!01.!/* !4$%%0%+*/"+.0$!#!*!.(,1(%B$%/)5
$2! $ * *0%D/0%#)0%/%*# !""!0B 0 %/ (/+ %* 02*#!. 0$0 0$! /5$%0.%
10%+*( 1* O/5',,P $/ !!* %*%0%0! ? * +.#*%/0%+* 3+.'%*# 3%0$
,/5$+D! 10%+*"+.(('%* /+"0.#!0#.+1,/* 0$!#!*!.(,1(%B
0%/(/+
,1(%/$!.+"(%0!.01.!* %*"+.)0%+*++'(!0/+*0$!/1&!0+")!*0($!(0$B
0 $/ %0/ +3* /$+,? * +""%!/? .%#$0 %* 0$! )%
(! +" 0$! 0+3* !*0.!B $!
.* %*#+"0$!$%6+,$.!*%5/?/5',,* )5$2!!!*!""!0%2!B
96
*!+1( ,!.$,//50$002*#!.)%#$0!,.0%1(.(5I,/5$+/%/".%!* (5J
!*2%.+*)!*0? 3$!.! ,.0%1(.(5 )*5 ,!+,(! +0$ %* * +10 +" )!*0( $!(0$
.!'*+3,.0%1(.(5)1$+10,/5$+/%/* %0/0.!0)!*0B
*+0$!.3+. /?%"
0$!.! %/ I02*#!.D""!0J? %0 +1( )'! ,0%!*0/ )+.! (%'!(5 0+ $2! (+3!.
/5),0+)(!2!(/".+)+0$!..!/+*/0$*(+*!B*0$!+0$!.$* ?0$!+2!
"0+./)5!2%!3! /,.0* ,.!(+"?+.'%* +" /,%*D+""!""!0B
*
0$0 /!? %0 %/ )+.! +" )+ !.0+.B +*"+1* !. %/ )!0$+ +(+#%( ,.+(!)?
3$%(! )+ !.0+. %/ +" %*0!.!/0 / %0 ,%*,+%*0/ 0$! +* %0%+* 1* !. 3$%$ *
!""!0+"%/+,0%)%6! B1.0$!.)+.!?%/(%'!(50+$2!*%* !,!* !*0!""!0
%** 5%0/!("B
"*ID/,%*D+""J+.I02*#!.D!""!0J$ !!*%*"(1!*%*#$+3
-1%'(5,0%!*0/)!%*0+0.!0)!*0* $+3%((0$!53!.!?+*!3+1( $2!/!!*
/$+.0!. * ,!.$,/ !2!* (+3!. /5),0+) (!2!(/ (.! 5 %* 0$! $%/0+.%(
+*0.+(#.+1,0$*%*+),.%/+*#.+1,/B$%/%/*+00$!/!B
7.4.2 Degree of urbanicity
$!.!)%#$0!/5/0!)0% %""!.!*!/!03!!*0$!+* .!$2%*#0+
+3%0$ %""!.!*0 !#.!!/+"1.*%%05B!#.!!+"1.*%%05%/'*+3*0++..!(0!
3%0$%*% !*!* /5),0+)(!2!(/+",/5$+/%/B+/%0!//(+* +/'%( !D
(+/! 0+ +,!*$#!*D +0$ ,.+(5 .! )+.! $%#$(5 1.*%/! !*2%.+*)!*0/
0$*02*#!.* *!%#$+1.%*#0+3*/B!"+1* *+#++ 35.+1* 0$%/B
7.4.3 Selection bias
Sociodemographic differences at inclusion
!(!0%+* %/ +1./ 3$!* /1&!0/ %* 0$! !4,!.%)!*0( * +*0.+( +* %0%+*/
%""!.".+)!$+0$!.%*35/0$0%*"(1!*!0$! !,!* !*02.%(!B%/(%0!.((5
97
)!*/ ,.!&1 %! %* "2+1. +" +*! 0$%*# +2!. *+0$!.? /+ $!.!A 2+1.%*# +*!
+10+)! +2!. *+0$!.? %* 35 0$0 $/ *+0$%*# 0+ + 3%0$ 0$! !4,!.%)!*0(
"0+.B %/!/ * 1/! +*"+1* !./ * +),.+)%/! %*0!.*( 2(% %05? 10 .!
(/+ 0$.!0 0+ !40!.*( 2(% %05B + .1(! +10 /),(%*# %/? /1&!0/ 3!.!
+),.! 0%*(1/%+*+*2.%(!//1$/#!?/!4* ! 10%+*?* +*(%*%(
2.%(!/B +. #!? 0$!.! 3/ /%#*%"%*0 %""!.!*! 3%0$ 0$! D/1&!0/ !%*#
5+1*#!.0$*%*+0$0$!+),.%/+*/%0!/* 0$!$%/0+.%(+*0.+(#.+1,O!((!
!0 (B?\ZZ^PB ,0%!*0/ (/+ 3!.! (!// +"0!* )..%! ? )+.! +"0!* $ * %*2%*!0$*%'#.+1* ?)+.!+"0!*$ %#*+/%/%*0$!/$%6+,$.!*%
/,!0.1)?* )+.!+"0!*1/! (+$+(+. .1#/B+*!+"0$!"0+./)!*0%+*! $+3!2!. .!)+2! 0$! //+%0%+* +" 3%0$ +. +10+)!B +.!+2!.? 0$!
%""!.!*!/0%*(1/%+*3+1( ((10!0$*%%05%* %0!,++.!.,.+#*+/%/"+.
,0%!*0/? %B!B 5+1*#!. #! +" +*/!0? /%*#(! /001/? )+.! /$%6+,$.!*% /,!0.1)
%#*+/!/* )+.!/1/0*!1/!B
Refusers
*!,.0%1(.%*/0*!+"/!(!0%+*%/+*!.*/0$!,0%!*0/% !*0%"%! //01 5
,,.+,.%0!? 10 3$+ .!"1/! 0+ ,.0%%,0!B * 0$! +2!.(( .!"1/( .0! 3/
\]d?+100$!/)!/+./(%#$0(5(+3!.0$*%*+0$!.?+),.(!/01 %!/B$!
.!"1/!./
% *+0
%""!. ".+) ,.0%%,*0/ +* '#.+1* 2.%(!/
O/+%+ !)+#.,$%? (%*%(? "1*0%+*(P 10 0$!5 % $2! /%#*%"%*0(5 (+*#!.
B$%/+1( ,+/!0$.!00++0$2(% %05* #!*!.(%/%(%05B1.0$!.)+.!?
0$!.!"1/!./.!,.!/!*0(+//+"2(1(!%*"+.)0%+*B+3!2!.?.!"1/!./* 0$!%.
(!*#0$/ 3!.! %/0.%10! !2!*(5 .+// !4,!.%)!*0( * +*0.+( /%0!/B $!
+),.%/+* !03!!* * + )5 /0%(( ! /!!* / 2(% %* 0$%/ .!/,!0B
+3!2!.?#!*!.(%/%(%05+".!/1(0/0+0$!3$+(!,+,1(0%+*+"%/3!'!*! B
$!.!"1/!./)'!1,/1/0*0%(#.+1,+",0%!*0/3$+)3!'*+3(%00(!+10B
$%/ $),!./ #!*!.(%/0%+*B (/+? 0$! /01 5 +" *5 )! %0%*# !""!0 +" +*
98
(%*%( * "1*0%+*( +10+)! ,.)!0!./ 3%(( ! )+.! %""%1(0 0+ !0!0?
)+1"(#! 5)%//%*#(+*#D* ,+//%(5,++.+10+)!,0%!*0/B.!).'
3+.0$ )'%*# $!.! %/ 0$0 3! .! *+0 3.! +" *5 /01 %!/ 0$0 %/1// 0$!
,.+(!) 3%0$ (+// +" (+*#D ,0%!*0/B +/0 /01 %!/ *+0 !2!* )!*0%+* 0$%/
,.+(!)+".!,.!/!*00%2%05%*/01 %!/+*"%./0!,%/+ !,0%!*0/B
Bias on symptom levels
% *+0$2!,.!D* ,+/0D!4,!.%)!*0+10+)!)!/1.!)!*0/+*0$!/)!
#.+1,@ 0$%/ %/ %),+//%(! %* 0$%/ !/%#*B / /++* / ,0%!*0/ %* 0$! !4,!.%)!*0(
/%0! !*0!. 0$! /01 5 0$!5 $2! (.! 5 !!* !4,+/! 0+ 0$! !4,!.%)!*0( "0+.?
3$%$%/B$!.!%/*+#++ /+(10%+*0+0$%/,.+(!)B
*+0$!. %//1! +*!.*%*# %/ +* /5),0+) )!/1.!)!*0/ %/ 0$! ,+//%%(%05 +"
/+.%*# %/ .+// 0$! .!/ * $/ +*/!-1!*!/ "+. %*0!.*( 2(% %05B *!
3*0/ 0+ .1(! +10 0$! ,+//%%(%05 0$0 %""!.!*! !03!!* !4,!.%)!*0( * +),.%/+*/%0!/&1/0.!.0!"0/+" %""!.!*0/+.%*#,.0%/!/B*!350+ !(
3%0$ 0$%/ 3+1( ! 0+ $2! .0!./ (%* 0+ /%0!B $%/ %/ %),+//%(! !1/! +"
%""!.!*!/ %* (*#1#! !03!!* /(+? 02*#!.? * +/'%( !B % !+0,%*#
%*0!.2%!3/* $2%*#0$!)/+.! 5*%* !,!* !*0.0!. % *+0!*0%.!(5/+(2!
0$%/,.+(!)B
*
%0%+*?2% !+0,!/".+)((/%0!/3!.!/+.! 50$!.0!./0((
/%0!/ * +),.! "0!.3. / %* +. !. 0+ +),10! .!(%%(%05 +!""%%!*0/B
!/1(0/".+)0$%/3!.!/0%/"0+.5B
7.4.4 Autonomous change within the subjects over time
!03!!*03+)!/1.!)!*0//1&!0/)5$*#!+*0$! !,!* !*02.%(! 1!
0+"0+./0$0$2!*+0$%*#0+ +3%0$0$!!4,!.%)!*0B$!.!%/,+//%%(%050$0
99
!2!* %" /5),0+) (!2!(/ 3!.! (+3!. %* 0$! .!? 0$%/ +1( $2! 0+ + 3%0$
*01.((5 +1..%*# $*#! ".+) !"+.! 0+ "0!. 0$! !4,!.%)!*0B ,0%!*0/
)%#$0"+./+)!.!/+*$2!!!*(!//%((!2!*!"+.!0$!!4,!.%)!*00++',(!B
!1/!0$!.!.!*+.!,.!/!*00%2!,.!D!4,!.%)!*0(/5),0+)/+.!/O0$!,%(+0
/),(! 3/ %""!.!*0 ".+) 0$! * + /),(!/P? 0$%/ +1( *+0 !
+*0.+((! "+.B+3!2!.? %#*+/0% %/0.%10%+*.+//* +3//%)%(.
O,$ A<B 1.0$!.)+.!? %" 3! ,.!/1,,+/! 0$0 $/ (+*#D0!.) !""!0? +*!
)%#$0%*2!/0%#0!0$!,00!.*/+"(+*#D0!.)/5),0+) !2!(+,)!*0?* +),.!
0$!) .+// /%0!/B .((!( %((*!// +1./!/ 3+1( %* %0! $*#!/ +2!. 0%)!
%* !,!* !*0 +" B !/1(0/ % $+3!2!. %* %0! 0$0 /5),0+) (!2!(/ 3!.!
/0(5 (+3!. 0$* + (!2!(/ 0$! "%./0 "%2! 5!./? 3$%(! + /5),0+) (!2!(/
%),.+2! %*0$!(+*#!..1*B
7.4.5 Retest-effect
$!)!/1.!)!*0/1* !.0'!*0+*!0%)!,+%*0)5%*"(1!*!0$!.!/1(0/+*
)!/1.!)!*0/+*0$!/)!2.%(!00$!*!40O(/+'*+3*/(!.*%*#!""!0PB
+3!2!.?%*0$%//01 5?0$!.!.!*+0!/0/21(*!.(!0+(!.*%*#B(()!/1.!/.!
(%*%(!2(10%+*/* +/!.20%+*/B!+*/% !..!0!/0D!""!0,.+(!)/0+*+0
!0$.!0%*0$!D++),.%/+*B
7.4.6 Measurements at one time point may differ from
measurements on the next
$.+1#$+100$!
/01 5((%*/0.1)!*0/$2!!!*$!( +*/0*0B*(500$!
0!*D5!."+((+31,?/+)!%*/0.1)!*0/$2!!!*
! ?* %*0$!
*!1.+,/5$+(+#%(00!.5?+*!%*/0.1)!*0$/!!*1, 0! 3%0$*!3!.?10
100
,.((!(?2!./%+*B$!)!/1.!)!*0/+"/5),0+)(!2!(/$2!.!)%*! 0$!/)!B
$!.!"+.!?+*!*!+*"% !*00$00$%//+1.!+"!..+. +!/*+0+)!%*0+,(5B
7.4.7 Statistical regression
$%/ +1./ 3$!* /1&!0/ .! .!.1%0! 0+ * !4,!.%)!*0 +* 0$! /%/ +" 0$!%.
!40.!)! /+.! +* /+)! )!/1.!)!*0 %* 0$0 !4,!.%)!*0B 00%/0%((5? !40.!)!
/+.!/(35/0!* 0+!(!//!40.!)!0/!+* )!/1.!)!*0?%* !,!* !*0(5+"
*5 !4,!.%)!*0( "0+.B /5),0+) (!2!(/ 0 %*(1/%+* 3!.! (+3 +),.! 0+
+B " 0$%/ * ! +*/% !.! 0+ ! * !40.!)! +10+)!? +*! 3+1( !4,!0
)!/1.!)!*0/+*0$!*!400%)!,+%*0/0+!(!//!40.!)!?%B!B$%#$!.?+.(+/!.0+
+ /+.!/B +. 0$! *!#0%2! /5),0+)/ 0 0$.!! )+*0$/? 0$%/ %/ 0.1! O!((! !0
(B?\ZZ^PB 10 "0!. 0$%/? /+.!/ +*0%*1! 0$! ,00!.* +" /+.!/ !%*# (+3!.B
1.0$!.)+.!? /5),0+) /+.!/ .!)%*! /0(! * /$+3! *+ /%#* +"
.!#.!//%+* 0+3. / 0$! )!*B $! 0!* !*5 "+. 0$! %*%0%((5 )+.! /!2!.!
/5),0+) (!2!(/ %* 0$! + #.+1, 0+ %),.+2! +2!. 0%)! +1( ! * !""!0 +"
/00%/0%( .!#.!//%+*B +3!2!.? 0$%/ **+0 !4,(%* /5),0+) (!2!(/ %* 0$! #.+1,.!)%*%*#/0(!B
7.4.8 Dropout.
+/0!4,!.%)!*0/!* 3%0$"!3!./1&!0/0$*3%0$3$%$0$!5/0.0! ?* 0$%/
* %/0+.00$!.!/1(0/+"0$!!4,!.%)!*0B
"0$! .+,+10/.!/1&!0/3%0$
!40.!)!/+.!/+*0$! !,!* !*02.%(!? %""!.!*!!03!!*/+.!/00$!
/0.0* 0$!!* +"0$!!4,!.%)!*0)51*&1/0(5!00.%10! 0+0$!
!4,!.%)!*0("0+.B$!/'!3! (+//+",0%!*0/00$!0!*D5!.//!//)!*03/
+/!.2! %*/,%0!+"% !*0%(.!0!*0%+*,.+! 1.!/%*+0$.!/B
0)5$2!
%*"(1!*! .!/1(0/?/.!+2!.5"%* %*#/)5$2!!!*/0.+*#!.3%0$+100$%/(+//B
101
$!#.!0!.0!*D5!."+((+3D1,,.0%%,0%+*+"/1&!0/)5$2!!!*
.!(0! 0+0$!,.+#.)3%0$%0/"+1/+2!.)*55!./+*.!+#*%6%*#
,/5$+0%%((*!//!/+1,(! 3%0$!/%!.!//0+.!B!.$,/!/5!//0+
)!*0($!(0$.!(/+)!*0%),.+2! .!(0%+*/!03!!*,0%!*0* $!(0$
.!?%*01.*"%(%00%*#.!.1%0)!*00+"+((+3D1,//!//)!*0/B5+3*(%*%(
%),.!//%+*!.0%*(5/1,,+.0/0$%/?/)*5,0%!*0/#2!,+/%0%2!!4,!.%!*!/
3%0$0$!%.0.!0)!*0/.!/+*0++)!B1.0$!.)+.!?%0$/!!*,.+,+/! ,.!2%+1/(50$0(+*#!.**!#0%2!(5%*"(1!*!.!.1%0)!*00+/01 %!/
O(/$*?[cccPB
*+1./01 5?0$%/0.!0)!*0 !(53/(+*#!."+..!"1/!./0
%*(1/%+** 00$!0!*D5!."+((+3D1,0$*"+.+*/!*0!./B
102
8. Ethical considerations
.(5 !0!0%+*+" %/!/!+.%((*!//%*#!*!.(?* ,/5$+/%/%*,.0%1(.?.%/!/
!0$%(-1!/0%+*/O./!** ,&+. /)+!*?[cc`PB+)!+"0$!)%*+*!/3%((!
+10(%*! %*0$!"+((+3%*#B
8.1 False positives
"(/!,+/%0%2!+1./3$!*,!./+* +!/*+0"1("%(.%0!.%"+.+* %0%+*3$%(!
/.!!*%*#,.+! 1.!%* %0! 0$0$!+./$! % B$%/)5+1.3$!*
/.!!*%*#.%0!.%('/,!%"%%05B
*,/5$+/%/$+3!2!.?,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/(%'!
$((1%*0%+*/? !(1/%+*/?1*1/1(0$+1#$0+*0!*0+. %/+.#*%/! /,!!$.!
/,!%"%5 !"%*%0%+*B.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/%/*+0+10 !0!0%*#,0%!*0/
0.%/'"+. !2!(+,%*#,/5$+/%/?10,0%!*0/3$+(.! 5$2!%0B0$!.?0$!
+,,+/%0!%/0.1!A/+)!/5),0+)/+"/!.%+1/,/5$+/%/?(%'!/$%6+,$.!*%?.!
)+.! %""%1(00+ !0!0* .!/%)%(.%*,.!/!*00%+*0++0$!.?*+*/,!%"%
/5),0+)/B$!.%/'+""(/!*!#0%2!/)5!#.!0!.0$*0$!.%/'+""(/!
,+/%0%2!/B
8.2 Stigmatisation
*+0$!.%//1!%*!.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/+*!.*//0%#)0%/0%+*B+1( !.(5
!0!0%+*(! 0+1*3*0! * 1*3..*0! /0%#)0%/0%+*F
0%/"03!((
!/0(%/$! 0$0/!.%+1/)!*0(%((*!///1$/,/5$+/%/%/ .,! %*)50$/+"
I) *!//J* ".%#$0!*%*#%*/0%010%+*/(0$!")+1/"%()I*!"(!3+2!.0$!
1'++H/*!/0JO..%!.!0(B?\ZZaPB*!*!/%(5%)#%*!3$0/0.!//
103
%#*+/%/+"I,+//%(5 !2!(+,%*#,/5$+/%/J+1( +0+0$!/!("D%)#!+"5+10$?
* 0+0$!3+..5+"*5,.!*0B
*+0$.!/!.$* 0.!0)!*0?0$!.!"+.!?+*%/!
* 1.0!%*"+.)0%+*%/%),+.0*0?0++)00$!/!)50$/?,(%*#0$!
,,.+,.%0!"+1/+*0$!)!*0($!(0$%//1!/0$!,!./+*%*-1!/0%+*,.!/!*0/
3%0$"+.$%)+.$!./!("B*!/$+1( *!2!.I %#*+/!J*5+*!3%0$0$!,+//%%(%05
+" !2!(+,%*#*50$%*#0$00$!,!./+* +!/*H0(.! 5!4,!.%!*!B0$!.?+*!
/$+1( .!//0$!$!(0$+),(%*0/+"0$!,!./+*3$+$/+)!0+0$!
00!*0%+*+"$!(0$.!,.+2% !./?* )+*%0+./5),0+)/%*/1$350$0
,,.+,.%0!0.!0)!*0%/+""!.! "+.3$%$!2!./5),0+)!)!.#!/B
/!+* ,+%*00+)'!3$!* %/1//%*#/0%#)0%/0%+*%/0$0"!.+"
/0%#)0%/0%+**%*%0/!("*+1.%/$/+%(,.!&1 %!O2*!!13!*?\ZZ[PB$!
%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/!),(+5! %*0$!
,.+&!0.!%)! 0.! 1%*#
,.!&1 %!* /0%#)0%/0%+*B!/1(0/".+).!/!.$?/$+3%*#(!.!*!"%0/+"
!.(50.!0)!*0(/+$!(,/ !D/0%#)0%/!0$!+* %0%+*/B
*0$%/,!./,!0%2!?*+0
.!//%*#* 0('%*#+10,/5$+/%/$!%#$0!*/?* *+0(+3!./?/+%(/0%#)B
8.3 Informed consent
*"+.)! +*/!*0 !)* /"1((1* !./0* %*#+"3$0%/.!-1!/0! * !4,(%*! +10/01 5?* 0$%/%/01.* !)* //!*!+"#.+//.!(%05
%/0+.0%+*B!(%05 %/0+.0%+*?$+3!2!.?%/+*!+"0$!$(().'/+",+/%0%2!
/5),0+)/%*,/5$+/%/B+?$+32(% .!0$!%*"+.)! +*/!*0"+.)/#0$!.! F
$%/!0$%( %(!))%/.! %(5.!+#*%/! %*0$!"%!( O!$.)** $.2?[ccaPB
0%//+(2! 53%0%*#0+.!-1!/0,.0%%,0%+*%*.!/!.$,.+&!0
1*0%(0$!,0%!*0%/%*.!)%//%+*+",+/%0%2!/5),0+)/B
*0$!
,.+&!0?
%*"+.)! +*/!*03//'! 0//!//)!*0?+.3$!*!2!.,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/
.!! !B
104
8.4 It’s unethical not to intervene
$!+0$!./% !+"0$! %/1//%+*%//$+.0?$+3!2!..!(!2*0B%0$0$!%* %0%+*/
".+).!/!.$0$0,.+(+*#! $/* 2!./!!""!0+*0$!+10+)!%*0$!
)+/0/!.%+1/+")!*0(%((*!//!/O./$((!0(B?\ZZ_@!.'%*/!0(B?\ZZ_P?*+0
0%*#0+/$+.0!*%0/!!)/(!.(51*!0$%(B
105
9. References
%*#0+*?B?*/0.%#0?B?
%*#0+*?B?\ZZ^B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/A%),0+*\D5!.+10+)!B/5$+(! ]^O\P?\aaDb^B
#!.+?B?5.*!?B?0+*?BB?+.0!*/!*?BB?\ZZ^B.%0(* (+.
).'!0/001/%*0$!(+*#.1*%*/$%6+,$.!*%B.$!*/5$%0.5`[O[P?
\bD]]B
(0)1.?BB?//!00%?B?//!((?B?(2 +.%?B?1* +?B?\ZZ[B1.0%+*+"
1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%//,.! %0+.+"+10+)!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%A.!0.+/,!0%2!/01 5B$%6+,$.!/_\O[D\P?\cD]`B
(0)1.?BB?++?BB?!(06!.?BB?\ZZaB0+./""!0%*#+10+)!%*
/$%6+,$.!*%* 0$!%..!(!2*!"+.,/5$+,$.)+(+#%(0.!0)!*0B
*0(%*/5$+,$.)+(\\O_P?\^cD`aB
(2.!6D%)!*!6?B?(!!/+*?BB?!*.5?BB?..%#*?BB?..%/?BB?
%(('!5?B?!* ((?B?))%*#!.?BB?1*#?BB?!..)*?B?'/+*?
BB?+..5?BB?\Z[\B+ 0+"1((.!+2!.5A(+*#%01 %*(.!(0%+*/$%,
!03!!*/5),0+)0%.!)%//%+** ,/5$+/+%(.!+2!.5%*"%./0D
!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/+2!.aB_5!./B/5$+(! ^\O]P?_c_D`Z`B
))%*#!.?BB? 3. /?B?.!3!.?BB?..%#*?B?+..5?BB?\ZZ\B
1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* +#*%0%2! !0!.%+.0%+*%*"%./0D
!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.!/_^O]P?\\]D]ZB
)+/?B?\Z[\B(0!.*0%2!%*0!.,.!00%+*"+.0$!!.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/
/01 5B)/5$%0.5[`cOcP?cc\@10$+..!,(5cc\D]B
* !./+*?BB?1$.!.?B?((?BB?\Z[ZB$!,0$35/0+)!*0($!(0$.!
+""%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/,0%!*0/A/5/0!)0%.!2%!3B/5$+(! ^Z
O[ZP?[_b_DcaB
* .!/!*?BB?.,!*0!.?BB?.B?*!?BB?//!.?BB?. !.?B
B?!%*!.#!.?BB?\ZZ_B!)%//%+*%*/$%6+,$.!*%A,.+,+/! .%0!.%
* .0%+*(!"+.+*/!*/1/B)/5$%0.5[`\O]P?^^[DcB
106
*0$+*5?B?[cc]B!+2!.5".+))!*0(%((*!//A0$!#1% %*#2%/%+*+"0$!)!*0(
$!(0$/!.2%!/5/0!)%*0$![ccZ/B/5$+/+%(!$%(%00%+*+1.*([`
[[D\]B
.!* 0?B?+/!*!.#?B?+( #!.?B?!.0+?B?1*'D+.#!*/!*?B?\ZZ_B
**%/D%* 1! ,/5$+/%/* /1/!-1!*0/$%6+,$.!*%D/,!0.1)
%/+. !./A"+((+3D1,/01 5+"_]_%*% !*0/!/B./5$%0.5[ba_[ZD_B
.*!/?BB?100+*?BB?$,)*?BB?10/0/?B?1.%?BB?+5!?BB?
\ZZZB!/0+* +*"%./0D!,%/+ !/01 5+"/$%6+,$.!*%B(%*%(+..!(0!/
+" 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B./5$%0.5[aa\ZaD[[B
!%/!.?B?.%'/+*?B?(!)%*#?BB?
+*+?BB?[cc]B/0(%/$%*#0$!+*/!0+"
,/5$+0%%((*!//B)/5$%0.5[_ZOcP?[]^cD_^B
!*0/!*?B?1*'2+( ?BB?+0(* ?BB?+5!?B?&+!.#!?B?!./.5##!*?BB?
/'.//+*?BB?!.#D./!*?B?(0?BB?[cc`B$!%*0!..0!..!(%%(%05
+"0$!+/%0%2!* !#0%2!5* .+)!(!OPB
*0!0$+ /
/5$%0.!/B`\\aD\]_B
!.#*!.?B?!%*!.?BB?.0!.?B?.*6?B?$+),/+*?BB?+),0+*?BB?
\ZZbB$!,!.%+ +"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/!"+.!0.!0)!*0%*%0%0%+*A
-1(%00%2!/01 5+"")%(5)!)!./W,!./,!0%2!/B+),./5$%0.5^c
O`P?_]ZD`B
!.)*?BB?!.#)*?B?()/0%!.*?B?$(50!.?B?\ZZ_B2(10%+*+"0$!
.1#/!%/+. !./
!*0%"%0%+*!/0O
P%*.%)%*(&1/0%!* !0+4%"%0%+*/!00%*#/* %*3! %/$,+,1(0%+*/),(!B1.
%0!/
[[O[P?\\D][B
!.0!(/!*?B?!,,!/!*?B?!0!./!*?B?$+.1,?B?$(!*/$(!#!.?B?(!1$?B?
$.%/0!*/!*?BB?..1,?B?+.#!*/!*?B?+. !*0+"0?B?\ZZbB%2!D5!.
"+((+3D1,+".* +)%6! )1(0%!*0!.0.%(+"%*0!*/%2!!.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*
2//0* . 0.!0)!*0"+.,0%!*0/3%0$"%./0!,%/+ !+",/5$+0%%((*!//A
0$!0.%(B.$!*/5$%0.5`_OaP?a`\Da[B
107
%.$3++ ?B?+$.*!?B?)%((*?B?+,!/0'!?B?1$./'?B?..%//?B?
[cc\B$!%*"(1!*!+"!0$*%%05* ")%(5/0.101.!+*.!(,/!%*"%./0D
!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%B+),.%/+*+"/%*?".+D.%!*?* 3$%0!
,0%!*0/B./5$%0.5[`[ab]DcZB
%.$3++ ?B?+
?B?'/+*?B?[ccbB.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*%*,/5$+/%/B$!
.%0%(,!.%+ $5,+0$!/%/B./5$%0.51,,([a\O]]P?_]DcB
+%2%*?BB?\ZZZB
*"(1!*!+"/(!!,D3'!* %. %*.$50$) %/01.*!/%*
,/5$%0.% %/+. !./B/5$%0.5!1.+/%\_O_P?^^`D_bB
++*/0.?B?(//!*?B?50!)?B?./$((?B?!*?B?1* !.%*'?
B?%!./)?B?\Z[\B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* *!#0%2!
/5),0+)/D/5/0!)0%.!2%!3* )!0D*(5/%/+"%* %2% 1(,0%!*0
0B$%6+,$.!/[^\O[D]P?[\DcB
++*/0.?B?(//!*?B?50!)?B?./$((?B?!*?B?1* !.%*'?
B?%!./)?B?\Z[\B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* *!#0%2!
/5),0+)/DD/5/0!)0%.!2%!3* )!0D*(5/%/+"%* %2% 1(,0%!*0
0B$%6+,$.!/[^\O[D]P?[\DcB
+.?B?+.*%0+?B? 1?B?(0!."*#?B?!(?B?++ ?BB?1!(?B?
!('+1(%/?B?*0!(%/?B?\Z[[B!1.+*0+)%(*+.)(%0%!/%*
/$%6+,$.!*%A)1(0%)+ (2+4!(3%/!)!0D*(5/%/* )!0D.!#.!//%+*
*(5/%/B$%6+,$.!/[\aO[D]P?^`D_aB
+.?B?1!(?B?*0!(%/?B?\ZZcB+#*%0%2!"1*0%+*%*#%*/$%6+,$.!*%?
/$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !.* ""!0%2!,/5$+/!/A)!0D*(50%/01 5B.
/5$%0.5[c_O`P?^a_Db\B
+00(!* !.?B?0+?B?#!.?B?.+((?B?0.1//?B?+((!.?BB?\ZZ\B$!%),0
+" 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* ,.!)+.% "1*0%+*%*#+*+10+)!
+""%./0%*,0%!*00.!0)!*0%*/$%6+,$.!*%* /$%6+""!0%2!,0%!*0/B
1..$/5$%0.5(%*!1.+/%\_\O_P?\\`D][B
+00(!* !.?B?0+?B?#!.?B?!#!*!.?B?%00)**?B?0.1//?B?+((!.?BB?
\ZZ]B$!%),0+"0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/,.%+.0+"%./0
108
,/5$%0.% )%//%+*+*0$![_D5!.+10+)!%*/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.
!/`\O[D\P?]aD^^B
+00(!* !.?B?0.1//?B?+((!.?BB?\ZZZB
),0+" 1.0%+*+"/5),0+)/
,.%+.0+"%./0$+/,%0(%60%+*+*10!+10+)!%*ccb/$%6+,$.!*%
,0%!*0/B$%6+,$.!/^^O\P?[^_D_ZB
+00(!* !.?B?0.1//?B?+((!.?BB?\Z[ZB+%( %/%(%05%*/$%6+,$.!*%?
/$%6+""!0%2!* ""!0%2! %/+. !./[_5!./"0!."%./0 )%//%+*B
$%6+,$.!/[[`O[P?cD[_B
+6%'/?BB?* .!+1?B?\Z[[B+*#%01 %*(/01 %!/+"+#*%0%+*%*"%./0!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/A/5/0!)0%.!2%!3+"0$!(%0!.01.!B1/0/5$%0.5^_
O\P?c]D[ZbB
.+)!0?BB?6?B?+$0)**?BB?.(/+*?BB?*!*!.#D.*0?B?\ZZ_B
+*#D0!.) %#*+/0%/0%(%05* +10+)!%*.!!*0"%./0D!,%/+ !+$+.0
/01 %!/+"/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1((][O]P?`]cD^cB
.+3*!?B?(.'!?B?!.2%*?B?
%*#0+*?BB?.'%*?B?W((#$*?B?
\ZZZB!0!.)%**0/+"-1(%05+"(%"!0"%./0,.!/!*00%+*3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%B./5$%0.5[a`[a]D`B
$*?B?1(/$+""+(?BB?+*#!./?B?$*'?BB?* (?BB?*.!*?
BB?1./0+*?B?+*%*#?B?*!.%* !*?BB?$*?BB?\ZZ\B.%*
)+.,$+(+#5%**0%,/5$+0%D*%2!/$%6+,$.!*%A/01 5+")1(0%,(!.%*
/0.101.!/B./5$%0.51,,(^]/``Da\B
$*?B?1(/$+""+(?BB?!)/?BB?2*.!*?BB?$*'?BB?2* !.
%* !*?BB?$+0$+./0?BB?2**#!(* ?B?$*?BB?\ZZ\B.%*
2+(1)!$*#!/%*"%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%A[D5!."+((+3D1,/01 5B
.$!*/5$%0.5_cO[[P?[ZZ\D[ZB
((#$*?BB?1**%*#$)?BB?((!!'?B?.!*+2%$?B?&!!2?B?
!)%*#0+*?B?+%(!1?
B?%/$?BB?\Z[\B!0$),$!0)%*!1/!* /$%6+,$.!*%A,+,1(0%+*D/! +$+.0/01 5%*(%"+.*%B)
/5$%0.5[`cO^P?]bcDc`B
109
**+*?B?+*!/?BB?1..5?BB?\ZZ\B/0!0.%+),(%0%+*/* /$%6+,$.!*%A$%/0+.%(* )!0D*(50%.!2%!3B)/5$%0.5[_c
OaP?[ZbZDc\B
**+*D,++.?BB?+0'%*?BB?500?BB?[cb\B!/1.!)!*0+",.!)+.% &1/0)!*0%*$.+*%/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1((bO]P?^aZDb^B
*0+.D.!?B?!(0!*?BB?\ZZ_B$%6+,$.!*%* )%#.0%+*A)!0D*(5/%/
* .!2%!3B)/5$%0.5[`\O[P?[\D\^B
//% 5?BB?+.)*?B?*$* ?B?$)%06?B?((?B?\Z[ZB!/0%*#
!"%*%0%+*/+"/5),0+).!)%//%+*%*"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/"+.,.! %0%+*
+""1*0%+*(+10+)!0\5!./B$%6+,$.1((]`O_P?[ZZ[DbB
/0%((+?BB?\ZZ]B.*!?"1*0%+*(,/5$+/%/?* 1(01.!B/5$%0.5``O[P?cD
\[B
$+*#?BB?50$%(5?B?!.)?B?\ZZ_B! 1%*#0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* $*#%*#$!(,D/!!'%*#!$2%+1.%*%*#,+.!B+
/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^ZObP?`[cD\[B
+),0+*?BB?+. +*?BB?!%//?BB?('!.?BB?\Z[[B$!X +/!/X+"%*%0%(?
1*0.!0! $((1%*0%+*/* !(1/%+*/A,.++"D+"D+*!,0/01 5+"
!*$*! ,.! %0+./+""%./0D!,%/+ !/5),0+)0+(+#5* "1*0%+*%*#
.!(0%2!0+ 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B(%*/5$%0.5a\O[[P?[^baD
c]B
+),0+*?BB?/(+3?BB?('!.?BB?\ZZ^B/!.20%+*/+*,.!*0M")%(5
"0+./0$0)5%*"(1!*!0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/)+*#
".%*)!.%*"%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%D/,!0.1),0%!*0/B
$%6+,$.!/`bO\D]P?]a]Db_B
.%#?BB?.+)!0?BB?!**%#?B?*!*!.#D.*0?B?2!((!?B?()+/?B?
\ZZZB
/0$!.!*//+%0%+*!03!!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* \^D)+*0$(%*%(+10+)!%*"%./0D )%//%+*/!.%!/F)/5$%0.5[_a
O[P?`ZD`B
110
.%#?BB?.!05?B?+3!.?B?$)*?B?+(!.0?B?+.*!((/D).+&+?
B?1**?B?\ZZ^B$!)!0$.(5*/!0OP!)A.* +)%/! +*0.+((! 0.%(+"0$!!""!0%2!*!//+"/,!%(%/! .!"+.!.(5,/5$+/%/B
]\cOa^a^P?[Z`aB
.+3?BB?%((*?BB?+$*/+*?BB?+$*/0+*!?BB?[cb`B.* +)%/! +*0.+((! 0.%(+",.+,$5(0%*!1.+(!,0%0.!0)!*0B./5$%0.5[^b
[\ZDaB
.1)(%/$?B?$%005?B?(.'!?B?.+3*!?B?)(%?B?!.2%*?B?%#1!?B?
%*/!((?B?
%*#0+*?BB?.'%*?B?W((#$*?B?\ZZcB!5+* 0$!
.%0%(,!.%+ A(+*#%01 %*(/01 5+"bD5!.+10+)!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !*+*D
""!0%2!,/5$+/%/B./5$%0.5[c^O[P?[bD\^B
!*?B?%*/6!*?BB?!*%+.?BB? !%*?BB?+./%.?B?\ZZ]B1.0%+*+"
1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* +10+)!+"/$%6+,$.!*%A !(5%*%*0!*/%2!
,/5$+/+%(0.!0)!*02!./1/ !(5%*0.!0)!*03%0$*0%,/5$+0%
)! %0%+*B$%6+,$.1((\cO\P?]^[DbB
!%/%?BB?[cccB!#%+*(.%*2+(1)!$*#!+2!.0$!(%"!D0%)!+1./!+"
/$%6+,$.!*%B/5$%0.!/]]O`P?_]_D^[B
!%/0+?B?. %*#?BB?+.)%'?BB?/$%'#?B?.++'/?BB?[cc_B$!
%*!* !.)+*00$.!!D ! !/01 %!/+"/!.%+1/)!*0(%((*!//B
B
+*#%01 %*(+1./!+),.%/+*/B./5$%0.5[`aO]P?]]bD^\B
%'!./+*?BB?0((%*#/?B?.%#+*%?B?+.+*+3?BB?1((!*/?B?+('!*?B?\ZZaB
$!//+%0%+*!03!!*+#*%0%2!"1*0%+*%*#* +1,0%+*(/001/%*
,!./+*/3%0$.!!*0+*/!0+",/5$+/%/B!.2!*0%/[c_OaP?_``Da[B
.'!?BB?1#+?BB?%!?B?+4?B?'. ?B?!()/0!00!.?B?\ZZ`B!*D
5!..!+2!.5+10+)!/"+.(%!*0/3%0$+D+1..%*#/$%6+,$.!*%* /1/0*!1/! %/+. !./B$%6+,$.1((]\O]P?^`^Da]B
.'!?BB?(!5?BB?'$0.?B?!3%/?BB?\ZZZB1/!/* +*/!-1!*!/+"
1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/%*/$%6+,$.!*%B./5$%0.5[aa_[[D
_B
111
((%/+*D.%#$0?
B?1(()+.!?B?\ZZcB!0D*(5/%/+" %""1/%+*0!*/+.%)#%*#
/01 %!/%*/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.!/[ZbO[D]P?]D[ZB
((%/+*D.%#$0?
B?($*?BB?%. ?BB?$!(!*?BB?1(()+.!?B?\ZZbB$!
*0+)5+""%./0D!,%/+ !* $.+*%/$%6+,$.!*%A**0+)%(
(%'!(%$++ !/0%)0%+*)!0D*(5/%/B)/5$%0.5[`_ObP?[Z[_D\]B
)/(!5?B?\ZZcB.(5.!/,+*/!0+0.!0)!*0,.! %0/.!)%//%+** .!+2!.50
]5!./%*,!+,(!3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%B2% /! !*0!(0$[\O\P?^]B
* %+00?B?,%06!.?BB?(!%//?BB?+$!*?B?[ca`B$!#(+(//!//)!*0/(!B
,.+! 1.!"+.)!/1.%*#+2!.((/!2!.%05+",/5$%0.% %/01.*!B.$
!*/5$%0.5]]O`P?a``Da[B
/0!.!.#?BB?.+0)*?BB?+(06)*?B?+),0+*?BB?('!.?BB?\Z[ZB
$!%),0+"")%(5$%/0+.5+",/5$+/%/+*#!D0D+*/!0* ,+/%0%2!
* *!#0%2!/5),0+)/+"/$%6+,$.!*%A)!0D*(5/%/B$%6+,$.!/
[\ZO[D]P?[\[D]ZB
2!*/!*?B?+//!.#?B
B?. !.?B?$.?B?!#!(/0 ?BB?+?
B?
+$**!//!*?BB?./!*?BB?!((!?
B?,&+. /)+!*?B?1* ?BB?
%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?.%%/?B?\Z[\B(0""!0* /+%(
"1*0%+*%*#A[Z5!."+((+3D1,/01 5+""%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/,0%!*0/B
$%6+,$.!/[]cO[D]P?ccD[Z^B
%./0?BB?'!"%!( ?BB?\Z[ZB!"%*%*#W)!*0( %/+. !.W%*DB
+))!*0.5+*AW$0%/)!*0(M,/5$%0.% %/+. !.F.+)D
0+
DW50!%*!0(BO\Z[ZPB/5$+(! ^ZO[[P?[aacDb\@ %/1//%+*
[c][D^B
.*6?B?.0!.?B?!%*!.?BB?!.#*!.?B?$+),/+*?BB?+),0+*?BB?
\Z[ZB0%#)* 0.!0)!*0 !(5%*"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A#.+1* ! 0$!+.5/01 5B.(5
*0!.2/5$%0.5^O[P?^aD_`B
.%%/?B?./!*?BB?!((!?
B?,&+. /)+!*?B?+$**!//!*?BB?$.?B?
%)+*/!*?B?1* ?BB?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?\ZZ]B!0$+ +(+#%(
,%0"((/%*!.(5 !0!0%+*/01 %!/D0$!!01.!\ZZ\B+. %
112
//+%0%+*"+./5$%0.%,% !)%+(+#5B0/5$%0.* [ZaO[P?]D
cB
*!2?B?*$!2?B?
2*+2?B?[ccbB[`D5!."+((+3D1,/01 5+"/$%6+,$.!*%
* .!(0! %/+. !./%*+"%?1(#.%B0/5$%0.* cbO]P?\ZZDaB
+00!/)**?B?\ZZ`B$! .!)%*#/(!!,/0#!A*!3*!1.+%+(+#%()+ !(+"
/$%6+,$.!*%F!1.+/%!*![^ZO^P?[[Z_D[_B
.!!*?B?2*#$?BB?+1*#?BB?\ZZ^B!/+*/"+.**%/1/!%*)!*
3%0$* 3%0$+10,/5$+/%/B.1#(+$+(!2\]O^P?^^_D_]B
$.?B?.%%/?B?./!*?BB?!((!?
B?+$**!//!*?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?
%)+*/!*?B?1* ?BB?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?\ZZbB%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/A %#*+/0%/0%(%05+2!.+*!* 03+5!./B/5$+,0$+(+#5^[
O_P?]\\DcB
/?BB?3!!*!5?BB?[cc\B.!)+.% * +*/!0"!01.!/+""%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1(([bO]P?]a]Db`B
"*!.?B?1.!.?B?+""(!.?B?%!$!.D+//(!.?B?[cc]B$!%*"(1!*!+"#!
* /!4+*0$!+*/!0* !.(5+1./!+"/$%6+,$.!*%B./5$%0.5[`\
bZD`B
"*!.?B?%!$!.D+//(!.?B?).!$0?B?1.!.?B?!%//*!.?B?$)% 0'!?
B?0'!*$!1!.?B?+""(!.?B?2* !.!% !*?B?[cc\B
A*
%*/0.1)!*0"+.0$!//!//)!*0+"+*/!0* !.(5+1./!+"/$%6+,$.!*%B
$%6+,$.!/`O]P?\ZcD\]B
"*!.?B?%!$!.D+//(!.?B?1.!.?B?0'!*$!1!.?B?+""(!.?B?[cc\B%./0
+*/!0* !.(5/5),0+)0+(+#5+"/$%6+,$.!*%B$,0!.+"
!,% !)%+(+#%(* *!1.+%+(+#%(.!/!.$%*0+#!* /!4 %""!.!*!/B
1..$/5$%0.5(%*!1.+/%\^\O\D]P?[ZcD[bB
..%/+*?B?+,,!.?B?.%#?B?/'?B?%!#!(?B?* !.(%*#?B?1!?BB?
*!2?B?%!(?B?* !.!% !*?B?+()!.#?BB?*?B?!!?BB?
!+*?BB?($+0.?B?./!((?BB?'*!?B?.0+.%1/?B?$!*?B?
'+ ?B?$.?B?/%.'%*?BB?.)?BB?(/$?B?%!./)?B?\ZZ[B
113
!+2!.5".+),/5$+0%%((*!//A[_D* \_D5!.%*0!.*0%+*("+((+3D1,
/01 5B./5$%0.5[ab_Z`D[aB
..+3?B?.+//)*?BB?+!?BB?!.!*!.?BB?\ZZ_B+,0%!*0/3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%!2!./$+3,!.%+ /+".!+2!.5F[_D5!.)1(0%D"+((+3D1,
/01 5B$%6+,$.1((][O]P?a\]D]^B
..+3?B?+!?BB?\ZZ_B+*#%01 %*(/01 %!/+"+10+)!* .!+2!.5%*
/$%6+,$.!*%* !.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*A*0$!5)'! %""!.!*!F*
/5$%0.5_ZO[^P?bacDbZB
!(#/+*?B?[ccZB3!*055!./W"+((+3D1,+""%./0,/5$%0.%,.!/!*00%+*"+.
/$%6+,$.!*%A3$0+1( $2!!!*,.!2!*0! F0/5$%0.* b[
O]P?\][D_B
!((!?B?.73!?BB?\ZZaB5//!(/!00%*#+#0.5# (*0,!./+*!.)! /$%6+".!*% %#*+/!B% //'.%"0"+.*+./',/5'+(+#"+.!*%*#^^O[[P?[]_bD
[]`\B
!*.5?BB?))%*#!.?BB?..%/?BB?1!*?BB?..%#*?BB?.+//!.?B
B?$3.06?BB?..!((5?BB?!..)*?B?'/+*?BB?+..5?BB?
\Z[ZB$!
"+((+3D1,/01 5+""%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A(+*#!.D0!.)
(%*%(* "1*0%+*(+10+)!a5!./"0!.%* !4 )%//%+*B(%*
/5$%0.5a[O`P?a[`D\bB
%((?B?.1)(%/$?B?(.'!?B?$%005?B?3!*/?B?!*3%'?B?.+3*!?B?
'(%*?BB?%*/!((?B?.'%*?B?
%*#0+*?BB?W((#$*?B?\Z[\B
.+/,!0%2!.!(0%+*/$%,+" 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/0+
,/5$+,0$+(+#5* "1*0%+*(+10+)!+2!.[\5!./B$%6+,$.!/[^[
O\D]P?\[_D\[B
+?BB?(%0?B?. ?B?+/!.?BB?W!.5?BB?.* 0?B?* .!/!*?BB?
\ZZ]B*0.!0! %*%0%(,/5$+/%/A.!(0%+*0++#*%0%2! !"%%0/* .%*
)+.,$+(+#5%*"%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[`ZO[P?[^\DbB
114
+?BB?* .!/!*?BB?(1)?B?+,+1(+/?B?%((!.?B?\ZZZB*0.!0! %*%0%(,/5$+/%/A%0/.!(0%+*0+-1(%05+"(%"!* /5),0+).!)%//%+*%*
"%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[_aO_P?bZbD[_B
+ #%*/?B?%*+(*?B?'?B?\ZZcB4,!.%!*!/+"2%0%)%/0%+** !,.!//%+*
.!//+%0! 3%0$+))1*%05"1*0%+*%*#)+*#)!*3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%B+/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^^O`P?^^bD_aB
+""?BB?'1)?B?6%?B?!5 !.* ?B?/!.**/'5?BB?!%/%?BB?
\ZZZB'+"//+%0%+*!03!!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! %((*!//* /!2!.%05+"+#*%0%2!* /0.101.(.%* !"%%0/00$!"%./0!,%/+ !+"
/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[_aO[[P?[b\^DbB
+,,!.?B?* !.(%*#?B?\ZZZB!2%/%0%*#0$! !2!(+,! 2!./1/ !2!(+,%*#
+1*0.5 %/0%*0%+*%*+1./!* +10+)!%*/$%6+,$.!*%A.!/1(0/".+)
+?0$!+((+.0%2!"+((+31,,.+&!0B
*0!.*0%+*(01 5+"
$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1((\`O^P?b]_D^`B
(!*/'5?B?[ccaB$![ZZD5!.!,% !)%+(+#5+"/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.!/
\bO\D]P?[[[D\_B
'/+*?B?3+5%*?B?5*+.?B?(.'!?B?.+3*!?B?!*3%'?B?100+*?B?
1.*!.?B?%*/!((?B?
%*#0+*?BB?.'%*?B?((#$*?BB?\ZZbB
/
0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/0!),+.((5/0(!F1./5$%0.5\]
O\P?caDcB
'/+*?BB?+..5?BB?%(('!5?B?!* ((?B?((+00?B?1 #!+*?B?
(!!/+*?B?+$*/+*?B?..%#*?B?\ZZbB10!D,$/!* [D5!."+((+3D1,
.!/1(0/+".* +)%6! +*0.+((! 0.%(+"2!./1/!".%!* %*#"+."%./0D
!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A0$!,.+&!0B/5$+(! ]bO_P?a\_D]_B
#!.?B?+00(!* !.?B?0.1//?B?+((!.?BB?\ZZ^B%"0!!*D5!."+((+3D1,+"
D[Z/$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !./+),.! 3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%* ""!0%2! %/+. !./B0/5$%0.* [ZcO[P?]ZDaB
+?
B?+$**!//!*?BB?1!/0 ?B?.%%/?B?(/$*?B?!((!?
B?
,&+. /)+!*?B?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?./!*?BB?\ZZbB$!'!50+
115
.! 1%*# 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! "%./0,/5$+/%/A%*"+.)0%+*),%#*/B
$%6+,$.1((]^O]P?^``Da\B
+$**!//!*?BB?.%%/?B?+?
B?$.?B?./!*?BB?!((!?
B?,&+. /)+!*?B?
1* ?BB?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?\ZZaB%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/,0%!*0/.!.1%0! %*0+0.!0)!*02%!.(5 !0!0%+*0!)/
2!./1/+. %*.5,0$35/A+1./!?+10+)!* $!(0$/!.2%!1/! 1.%*#
"%./0\5!./B.(5
*0!.2/5$%0.5[O[P?^ZDbB
+$**!//!*?BB?(/$*?BB?./!*?BB?+.*!(* ?B?+?
B?. (?B?
2!!'?B?.%%/?B?!((!?
B?,&+. /)+!*?B?%)+*/!*?B?(.%'?
B?#(1)?B?\ZZ[B.(5 !0!0%+*/0.0!#%!/"+.1*0.!0! "%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/B$%6+,$.!/_[O[P?]cD^`B
+$*/0+*!?BB?.+3?BB?+$*/+*?BB?%((*?BB?[cb`B$!+.0$3%'
.'01 5+""%./0!,%/+ !/+"/$%6+,$.!*%B
B.!/!*00%+*+"0$!%((*!//
* ,.+(!)/.!(0%*#0+ )%//%+*B./5$%0.5[^b[[_D\ZB
((?B?(0+*!*?B?$(/0.+)?B?!$0%*!*?B?.%!6?
B?+*6(!6 !
$2!6?B?\ZZ\B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* %0/+..!(0!/%*
"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/%*%*(* * ,%*B0/5$%0.* [Z`O^P?
\`_Da_B
5?BB?%/6!%*?B?,(!.?BB?[cbaB$!,+/%0%2!* *!#0%2!/5* .+)!/(!
OP"+./$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1(([]O\P?\`[Da`B
!!"!?BB?+$/?BB?+/+*65?BB?2% /+*?B?%(2!.)*?BB?!* (!.?B
B?+.20$?BB?+.?B?2%/?BB?[cbaB$.0!.%/0%/+"2!.5,++.
+10+)!/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[^^OaP?bbcDc_B
!/$2*?BB?/?B?%!3( ?B?+*0.+/!?BB?!
5?B?$++(!.?B
B?3!!*!5?BB?\ZZ]B.+(+*#! 1*0.!0! %((*!// 1.0%+*".+)
,.+ .+)(+*/!0,.! %0/+10+)!%*"%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/!/B$%6+,$.
1((\cO^P?a_aD`cB
116
%.',0.%'?B?1$**?BB?+//?BB?.,!*0!.?BB?.B?\ZZ[B/!,.0!
%/!/!3%0$%*0$!/5* .+)!+"/$%6+,$.!*%B.$!*/5$%0.5_bO\P?
[`_Da[B
%.',0.%'?B?%/$!.?B?\ZZ`B1 +)%*/3%0$%*0$!*!#0%2!/5),0+)/+"
/$%6+,$.!*%A+))!*0.5B$%6+,$.1((]\O\P?\^`DcB
(!.)*?BB?2+.%?BB?%!?B?!%$?B?* %+00?B?* .!/!*?BB?!((!.?
BB?%./$"%!( ?BB?[cb_B%.0$D+$+.00.!* /%*.0!/+")&+.
!,.!//%2! %/+. !.)+*#.!(0%2!/+",0%!*0/3%0$""!0%2! %/+. !.B
.$!*/5$%0.5^\OaP?`bcDc]B
./0!2?B?.+*!?B?..%#*?BB?1..5?B?('%*/?B?+..5?BB?\ZZ^B
.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*%*"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/DD0$!%),0+"+))1*%05
!2!(+,)!*0),%#*B+/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(]cOcP?a[[DcB
1?B?+*#?BB?1?BB?/+%?BB?\ZZ]B\ZD5!."+((+3D1,/01 5+*
/$%6+,$.!*%%*%*#,+.!B0/5$%0.* [ZbO\P?[[bD\_B
.#!?B?%!(//!*?B?( !?B?..%/?B?\ZZbB!/1.!)!*0* .!,+.0%*#+"
0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B.(5
*0!.2/5$%0.5\O^P?\Z[D[[B
./!*?BB?.%%/?B?$.?B?+$**!//!*?BB?!((!?
B?,&+. /)+!*?B?1* ?
BB?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?BB?(/$*?BB?\ZZ^B.!)+.% &1/0)!*0%*"%./0D!,%/+ !*+*D""!0%2!,/5$+/%/A %/0%*0,00!.*/+"
,.!D+*/!0+1./!B./5$%0.5[b_[ZbD[_B
./!*?BB?+$**!//!*?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?[ccbB%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%3%0$(+*# 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B0$35/0+.!B
./5$%0.51,,([a\O]]P?^_D_\B
./!*?BB?(/$*?BB?+!?BB?[cc`B%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%A
B
.(5+1./!,.)!0!./B$%6+,$.1((\\O\P?\^[D_`B
./!*?BB?!((!?
B?1!/0 ?B?$.?B?+?
B?+$**!//!*?BB?
,&+. /)+!*?B?1* ?BB?+//!.#?B
B?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?.%%/?
B?(/$*?B?\Z[[B.(5 !0!0%+*+",/5$+/%/A,+/%0%2!!""!0/+*_D
5!.+10+)!B/5$+(! ^[OaP?[^`[DcB
117
./!*?BB?!((!?
B?.%%/?B?+?
B?+$**!//!*?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?
%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?(/$*?BB?\ZZaB*!D5!.!""!0+"
$*#%*# 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/%*/%*#(!0$)!*0.!B.
/5$%0.51,,(_[/[\bD]\B
./!*?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?[cc`B.(5% !*0%"%0%+** 0.!0)!*0+"
/$%6+,$.!*%A+*!,01(* !0$%(+*/% !.0%+*/B/5$%0.5_cO^P?
]a[DbZB
0/0!.?B?5%*D!.)!5/?
B?%!?B?%00$!*?BB?2*/?B?\Z[\B 2!./%05
* ,/5$+/%/A[ZD5!.,.+/,!0%2!/01 5%*2!/0%#0%*#/5*!.#%/)
!03!!*!.(5* .!!*0 2!./%05%*,/5$+/%/B0/5$%0.* [\_
O_P?]bbDccB
!$.)*?BB?$.2?BB?[ccaB0$%(,.+(!)/%*,/5$%0.%.!/!.$B
!*0!(0$ )\^O\P?\\aD_ZB
!*%+.?BB?%*#!)*/?BB?%*/6!*?BB? !*?B?$!*!?BB?\ZZ[B
+%("1*0%+*%*#* 0$!+1./!+"!.(5D+*/!0/$%6+,$.!*%A"%2!D5!.
"+((+3D1,+",/5$+/+%(%*0!.2!*0%+*B./5$%0.5[ac_]DbB
!/0!.?B?%.$3++ ?B?.!!)*0(!?B?%$%(?B?%0?B?\ZZcB
A
(1/0!..* +)%/! +*0.+((! 0.%(+"0.%*%*#%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/B.!*.0_cO_`]P?![b]DcZB
!3%/?B?2% ?B?* .!//+*?B?((!!'?B?[cc\B$%6+,$.!*%* %05(%"!B
*!0]^ZObb[\P?[]aD^ZB
%)?BB?!3?B?1/$*!.?B?$+3?B?0/1)+0+?B?!%/%?BB?[cc`B
+.0%(#.5)00!.2+(1)! !"%%0%*,0%!*0/3%0$"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[_]O[\P?[_^bD_]B
(+5 D2*/?B?.+/5?B?0+'0+*?B?%((%*#?B?+/?B?%*0+*?B?+$*/+*?
B?\Z[[B
*%0%0%2!/0+/$+.0!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/A/5/0!)0%
.!2%!3B./5$%0.5[cbO^P?\_`D`]B
+?BB?+?B?[caaB0!*D5!."+((+3D1,/01 5+"$%*!/!/$%6+,$.!*%/%*
+*#+*#B./5$%0.5[][`]D`B
118
+!!(?BB?%!!.)*?BB?(2%.?BB?5!.$+""?B
B?!%/(!.?BB?65)*/'%?
BB?[cc\B1.0%+*+",/5$+/%/* +10+)!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[^cOcP?[[b]DbB
5/'!.?BB?2%/?BB?.5/+*?BB?!((?BB?\ZZcB""!0/+"+#*%0%2!
!$2%+.(0$!.,5+*3+.'+10+)!/%*2+0%+*(.!$%(%00%+*"+.
,.0%%,*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%/,!0.1) %/+. !./B$%6+,$.!/[ZaO\D
]P?[b`Dc[B
'%*!*?B?%!001*!*?B?/'!(%*!*?B?!%&+(?B?
/+$**%?B?+,+*!*?B?
\Z[ZB!#0%2!/5),0+)/* 0$!%.,.! %0+./%*/$%6+,$.!*%3%0$%*0$!
+.0$!.*%*(* [c``%.0$+$+.0B/5$%0.5!/[abO[P?[\[D_B
((?B?+.)*?B?$)%06?B?*$* ?B?!$. D2*/?B?'$.?
B?.%$.*?B?\ZZ`B.! %0+./+".0!* 0%)!0+.!)%//%+*%*"%./0D
!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A03+D5!.+10+)!/01 5B/5$+(! ]`O_P?`^cD_bB
((?B?+.)*?B?$+(0!*?B?*$* ?B?!*?B?\ZZ_B+))1*%05
%*0!.2!*0%+*"+.!.(5% !*0%"%0%+*+""%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A%),0+*
1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/OP* ,0%!*0$.0!.%/0%/B+
/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^ZO_P?]]aD^^B
((?BB?%00(?B?!!?B?$+(0!*?BB?//%/?B?+.)*?BB?\ZZ\B
+),10! 0+)+#.,$5+"0$!.%*)+.,$+(+#5+",0%!*0/3%0$"%./0D
!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%,/5$+/%/B/5$%0.5!1.+/%\aO_P?]_ZDbB
((?BB?+.)*?BB?*$* ?B?!*?BB?..%$.*?B?+.0!/!?
B?+3*/!* ?BB?$+(0!*?BB?\ZZ\B001/+",0%!*0/3%0$"%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/"0!.+*!5!.+",$/!D/,!%"%+))1*%05D+.%!*0! 0.!0)!*0B
/5$%0.!.2_]O^P?^_bD`]B
((?BB?+.)*?BB?*$* ?B?+3*/!* ?B?\ZZ\B5),0+)/?
+#*%0%+*?0.!0)!*0 $!.!*!* "1*0%+*(+10+)!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/B/5$+(! ]\O`P?[[ZcD[cB
119
.!*#+?B?..+3?B?!.!*!.?BB?* /?B?\ZZZB,.+/,!0%2!(+*#%01 %*(
[ZD5!./01 5+"/$%6+,$.!*%W/0$.!!)&+."0+./* !,.!//%+*B
/5$%0.5!/caO[P?`[DaaB
.*!.+/?B?!%/0!.?B?+$ !?B?[cc\B+),.%/+*+"(+*#D0!.)+10+)!+"
/$%6+,$.!*%?""!0%2!* /$%6+""!0%2! %/+. !./B./5$%0.51,,(
O[bP?^^D_[B
.*!.+/?B?!%/0!.?B?+$ !?B?0!%*)!5!.?BB?1*!)**?B?[cbcB+*#D
0!.)+10+)!+"/$%6+""!0%2!* /$%6+,$.!*% %/+. !./A
+),.0%2!/01 5B
B!"%*%0%+*/?)!0$+ /?,/5$+,0$+(+#%(* /+%(
+10+)!B1..$/5$%0.5!1.+(%\]bO]P?[[bD\_B
.*!.+/?B?0!%*)!5!.?BB?!%/0!.?B?+$ !?B?1*!)**?B?[cbcB+*#D
0!.)+10+)!+"/$%6+""!0%2!* /$%6+,$.!*% %/+. !./A
+),.0%2!/01 5B
B+%(+*/!-1!*!/B1..$/5$%0.5!1.+(%
\]bO]P?[]_DcB
./$((?B?!3%/?B?+'3++ ?B?.'!?B?+*!/?B?.+1 !?B?\ZZ_B
//+%0%+*!03!!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* +10+)!%*
+$+.0/+""%./0D!,%/+ !,0%!*0/A/5/0!)0%.!2%!3B.$!*/5$%0.5
`\OcP?ca_Db]B
./$((?B?0$+*!?B?\Z[[B.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*"+.,/5$+/%/B$%6+,$.1((
]aO`P?[[[[D^B
.3$?B?+$*/+*?B?\ZZ^B$%6+,$.!*%* !),(+5)!*0D.!2%!3B+
/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(]cO_P?]]aD^cB
/+*?B?..%/+*?B?(6!.++'?B?! (!5?
B?.+1 !?B?[cc`B$!+1./!+"
/$%6+,$.!*%+2!.[]5!./B.!,+.0".+)0$!
*0!.*0%+*(01 5+*
$%6+,$.!*%O
+P++. %*0! 50$!+.( !(0$.#*%60%+*B.
/5$%0.5[`cO_P?_bZD`B
/+*?B?..%/+*?B?(6!.++'?B?! (!5?
B?('%*?B?.+1 !?B?[cc_B
$.0!.%/0%/+"+10+)!%*/$%6+,$.!*%0[]5!./B./5$%0.5
[`aO_P?_c`D`Z]B
120
0$!/+*?BB?$!,$!. ?BB?1.!*/?BB?..?BB?\Z[[B/5/0!)0%)!0D
.!2%!3#. %*#0$!!2% !*!"+.*+*D#!*!0%.%/'"0+./* ,100%2!
*0!! !*0/+"/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.!/[]]O[D]P?[]]D^\B
(/$*?BB?[cccB1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%A).'!.+. !0!.)%**0+"+1./!F%+(/5$%0.5^`OaP?
bccDcZaB
(/$*?BB?!*0+*?BB?[cc]B105,!,.+#.!//%+** ,0$+,$5/%+(+#%
!0!.%+.0%+*%*!.(5/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1(([cO[P?a[Db^B
(/$*?BB?+$**!//!*?BB?[cc`B.(5 !0!0%+** %*0!.2!*0%+*3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%A.0%+*(!B$%6+,$.1((\\O\P?\Z[D\\B
+..5?BB? 3. /?B?%$(+,+1(+/?B?..%#*?BB?'/+*?BB?[cc`B
A*!2+(2%*#/5/0!)+"!.(5 !0!0%+** +,0%)()*#!)!*0B
$%6+,$.1((\\O\P?]Z_D\`B
!0%*?B?.!*?B?1)*?B
B?% !/?B?\ZZ`B$!,.!2(!*!+",/5$+0%
/5),0+)/)+*#)!0),$!0)%*!1/!./B
%0%+*[Z[[^a]D[^abB
! *%'?BB?$+*?BB?1001*!*?BB?+*!00?B?[cbbB 1(0
/$%6+,$.!*%"+((+3%*#,.!*0(!4,+/1.!0+*%*"(1!*6!,% !)%B.$
!*/5$%0.5^_O\P?[bcDc\B
!((!?
B?.%%/?B?1""?B?#(1)?B?\ZZZB+%("1*0%+*%*#+",0%!*0/3%0$
/$%6+,$.!*%%*$%#$D%*+)!3!(".!/+%!0%!/B/5$%0.!.2_[O\P?\\]D
bB
!((!?
B?./!*?BB?$.?B?.%%/?B?+$**!/!*?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?1* ?
BB?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?\ZZbB.!2!*0%+*+"*!#0%2!
/5),0+),/5$+,0$+(+#%!/%*"%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%A03+D5!.
!""!0/+".! 1%*#0$! 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B.$!*
/5$%0.5`_O`P?`]^D^ZB
!((!?
B?./!*?BB?$.?B?.%%/?B?+$**!//!*?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?
%)+*/!*?B?1* ?BB?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?\ZZ^B! 1%*#0$!
121
1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! "%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A!""!0/+*(%*%(
,.!/!*00%+*B.$!*/5$%0.5`[O\P?[^]D_ZB
%(!2?B?+?BB?.* 0?B?* .!/!*?BB?\ZZ_B.! %0%2!2(1!/+"
*!1.++#*%0%+** *!#0%2!/5),0+)/+*"1*0%+*(+10+)!%*
/$%6+,$.!*%A(+*#%01 %*("%./0D!,%/+ !/01 53%0$aD5!."+((+3D1,B)
/5$%0.5[`\O]P?^c_D_Z`B
%((!.?BB?(/$*?BB?+/!*?BB?+)&!!?B?.'+2%$?BB?0!%*?
B?++ /?BB?\ZZ\B.+/,!0%2! %#*+/%/+"0$!%*%0%(,.+ .+)!"+.
/$%6+,$.!*%/! +*0$!0.101.! *0!.2%!3"+..+ .+)(
5* .+)!/A,.!(%)%*.5!2% !*!+"%*0!..0!..!(%%(%05* ,.! %0%2!
2(% %05B)/5$%0.5[_cO_P?b`]D_B
+ !/0%*?B?1!.?B?0%.(%?B?(0%?B?!((?B?\ZZ]B+*#D0!.)+1./!+"
/$%6+,$.!*%%((*!//A(!1(!.W//01 5.!+*/% !.! B)/5$%0.5[`Z
O[\P?\\Z\DbB
+((!.?BB?+00(!* !.?B?.+//?B?\ZZ\B$!.!,!(%*%* %$+0+)5A
.!(%)%*.5.!/1(0/+"[_D5!."+(+3D1,/01 5+*"1*0%+*(,/5$+/!/A
"+1/+**!#0%2!/5),0+)/B$%6+,$.!*%!/!.$_`O[D\P?baDc^B
+((!.?BB?#!.?B?%! !(?B?!.)!%!.?B?0.1//?B?+00(!* !.?B?\Z[ZB
$!1*%$[_D5!."+((+3D1,/01 5OP+*"%./0D$+/,%0(%6! ,0%!*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%+.""!0%2! %/+. !./A//!//%*#+1./!/?05,!/
* 0%)!/0%(%05+" %#*+/0%(//%"%0%+*B1./5$%0.5\`O^P?\][D
^]B
+((!.?BB?#!.?B?%! !(?B?!.)!%!.?B?0.1//?B?+00(!* !.?B?\Z[ZB
$!1*%$[_D5!."+((+3D1,/01 5OP+*"%./0D$+/,%0(%6! ,0%!*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%+.""!0%2! %/+. !./A+),.%/+*+"
,/5$+,0$+(+#%(* ,/5$+/+%(+1./!* +10+)!* ,.! %0%+*
+"$.+*%%05B1..$/5$%0.5(%*!1.+/%\`ZO_P?]`aDb^B
+.%06?B?2.+ ?B?* .!+1?B?+..%/+*?BB?+$*?B?!'!*/0! 0?B?+**?
B?.+3?B?\Z[\B!5+* 0$!/1(1/,!0/A+/%0%2!00%01 !/+3. /
122
+/%0%2!5),0+)/
///+%0! %0$! %0%+*+*+),(%*!%*
/5$+/%/B$%6+,$.1((![_BQ,1$! +",.%*0R
+/.!((%?B?[cc^B!(0$* !+*+)%!2(10%+*%*/$%6+,$.!*%A
%),(%0%+*/"+.$!(0$,+(%%!/B0/5$%0.* 1,,(]b\b^DbB
5%*D!.)!5/?
B?2*/?B?\ZZaB0.!//D.!0%2%05%*,/5$+/%/A!2% !*!"+.*
""!0%2!,0$350+,/5$+/%/B(%*/5$+(!2\aO^P?^ZcD\^B
+. !*0+"0?B?1./!*?BB?#!.+?B?%*?B?+5!.?BB?+.0!*/!*?BB?
\ZZ^B$*#!%*/1%% !.0!/"+.,0%!*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%%*!*).'?
[cb[DcaA*!/0! /!D+*0.+(/01 5B]\cOa^`ZP?\`[B
+.)*?BB?((?BB?!*?B?+.1#*0%?BB?+.0!/!?B?
*0+/$?B?
$!*#?B?%'3++ ?B?\ZZZB$!.!(0%+*/$%,+"/5),0+)/* (!2!(+"
"1*0%+*%*#%*/$%6+,$.!*%0+#!*!.(3!((!%*#* 0$!1(%05+"%"!
(!B0/5$%0.* [Z\O^P?]Z]DcB
+.)*?BB?+3*/!* ?B?((?BB?\ZZ[B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/
* +#*%0%2!"1*0%+*%*#%*"%./0D!,%/+ !,0%!*0/B./5$%0.5[ac]^ZD
_B
W((#$*?B?1.*!.?B?!*3%'?B?'/+*?B?100+*?B?+(!5?BB?
%((%)/?B?!$*?B?!0$!./0+*!?B?%*/!((?B?\Z[ZB%./0!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/* 0$!0.%(0+/!+* .5.!A$!(,D/!!'%*#* $!(0$D/5/0!)
!(5/B+/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^_O]P?]b[Dc[B
(!/!*?BB?+.0!*/!*?BB?\ZZ\B! )%//%+*.%/'%*/$%6+,$.!*%A/!(!0%+*
!4,(%*/,.!2%+1/"%* %*#/+",.+#.!//%2!+1./!+" %/+. !.B/5$+(! ]\OaP?[]Z[DaB
,&+. /)+!*?B?!((!?
B?.%%/?B?$.?B?+$**!//!*?BB?./!*?BB?1* ?
BB?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?(/$*?BB?\ZZcB0%(%05+"
)! %0%+*%*!.(5,/5$+/%/A+),.%/+*!03!!*/!+* D#!*!.0%+*
* (+3D +/!"%./0D#!*!.0%+**0%,/5$+0%/B.(5
*0!.2/5$%0.5]O[P?
_bD`_B
123
*0!(%/?B?!('+1(%/?B?+..5?BB?++ ?BB?1'(%*#?B?$%((%,/?BB?
1*#?BB?1(()+.!?BB?.!3!.?B?+1(/5?B?!/)+* ?B?1%.!?B
B?\ZZ]B!1.+*0+)%(*+.)(%0%!/!"+.!* "0!.+*/!0+"
,/5$+/%/A.+//D/!0%+*(* (+*#%01 %*(
+),.%/+*B*!0]`[
Oc]_^P?\b[DbB
*0!(%/?B?1!(?B?++ ?BB?!('+1(%/?B?1*?B?!.#!.?B?01.0?BB?
1*#?B?$%((%,/?B?+..5?BB?\ZZ_B0.101.(.%*%)#%*#!2% !*!
"+.)1(0%,(!,0$+(+#%(,.+!//!/0 %""!.!*0/0#!/+".%*
!2!(+,)!*0%*/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1((][O]P?`a\Dc`B
! !./!*?BB?+.0!*/!*?BB?\ZZ[B2% !*!+" +/!D.!/,+*/!.!(0%+*/$%,
!03!!*1.*%%05 1.%*#1,.%*#%*#* /$%6+,$.!*%.%/'B.$!*
/5$%0.5_bO[[P?[Z]cD^`B
! !./!*?B?#02!0?BB?.0!.1 ?B?\ZZaB!*!.(%6%(%05/01 %!/+"0$!
(+(//!//)!*0+"1*0%+*%*#D,(%02!./%+*B+),./5$%0.5^bO[P?
bbDc^B
!*00%(?B?/'!(%*!*?B?,!?B?*/'*!*?B?!%&+(?B?% (!.?B?
1..5?BB?.*!/?B?+*!/?BB?
/+$**%?B?+,+*!*?B?%!001*!*?B?
\Z[ZB//+%0%+*!03!!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* .%*
)+.,$+(+#5%*/$%6+,$.!*%3%0$%*0$!+.0$!.*%*(* [c``%.0$
+$+.0B$%6+,$.!/[\]O\D]P?[^_D_\B
!.'%*/?B?%!!.)*?B?1?B?+$!*?B?2+5?B?.!!*?B?%,1./'5?B?
0.'+3/'%?B?$.)?B?$*?B?1.?B?+((!"/+*?B?\ZZ^B.! %0+./+"
*0%,/5$+0%0.!0)!*0.!/,+*/!%*,0%!*0/3%0$"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%?/$%6+""!0%2!* /$%6+,$.!*%"+.) %/+. !./B.
/5$%0.5[b_[bD\^B
!.'%*/?BB?1?B?+0!2?B?%!!.)*?BB?\ZZ_B!(0%+*/$%,!03!!*
1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* +10+)!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%A.%0%(.!2%!3* )!0D*(5/%/B)/5$%0.5[`\
O[ZP?[ab_DbZ^B
124
!.'%*/?BB?!/!.)*?B?./'+#?BB?.$)?B?6)!.?B?%!!.)*?BB?
\ZZZB$.0!.%6%*#* 0%*#0$!+*/!0+"/5),0+)/%*,/5$+0%%((*!//A
0$!5),0+)*/!0%*$%6+,$.!*%OP%*2!*0+.5B$%6+,$.!/^^
O[P?[D[ZB
!0!./!*?B?+. !*0+"0?B?!,,!/!*?B?$(!*/$!#!.?B?$+.1,?B?
$.%/0!*/!*?BB?..1,?B?$(/0.+)?B?/0.1,?B?+.#!*/!*?B?
\ZZ_B
),.+2%*#[D5!.+10+)!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A0.%(B.
/5$%0.51,,(^b/cbD[Z]B
!0!./!*?B?$+.1,?B?-$(!*/$(!#!.?B?$.%/0!*/!*?BB?!,,!/!*?B?
..1,?B?+..#!*/!*?B?+.0!*/!*?BB?+. !*0+"0?B?\ZZbB.! %0+./
+".!)%//%+** .!+2!.5%*"%./0D!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%/,!0.1)
%/+. !./),(!A\D5!."+((+3D1,+"0$!0.%(B*/5$%0.5_]
O[ZP?``ZDaZB
%((%*#?B?!%*#0+*?B?1%,!./?B?.!05?B?!
!/?B?.0%* (!?B?.$?
B?+.#*?B?\ZZ\B/5$+(+#%(0.!0)!*0/%*/$%6+,$.!*%A
B!0D
*(5/!/+".* +)%6! +*0.+((! 0.%(/+"/+%(/'%((/0.%*%*#* +#*%0%2!.!)! %0%+*B/5$+(! ]\O_P?ab]Dc[B
%((%*#?B?!%*#0+*?B?1%,!./?B?.!05?B?!
!/?B?.$?B?+.#*?B?
\ZZ\B/5$+(+#%(0.!0)!*0/%*/$%6+,$.!*%A
B!0D*(5/%/+"")%(5
%*0!.2!*0%+** +#*%0%2!!$2%+1.0$!.,5B/5$+(! ]\O_P?a`]Db\B
+),%(%?B?!."%*%?B?
**)+.0%?B?!/0!.?B?$.%2/02?B?%.. %?
B?+. !*0+"0?B?\Z[[B1%% !.%/'%*"%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A/!(!0%2!
.!2%!3+"0$!1..!*0(%0!.01.!B$%6+,$.!/[\cO[P?[D[[B
+3!.?B?
+,+*%?B?!5*+( /?B?%/$!.?B?1//!((?B?.!05?B?1%.!?B
B?.%#?B?\ZZaB$!)!0$.(5*/!0.%/%///!//)!*0!)01 5A
#!*!.(,.0%0%+*!.! 10%+** !//0+*!.(5 !0!0%+*0!)%*
"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/B./5$%0.51,,(_[/[]]DcB
%*!.?BB?!#*!.?BB?*!?BB?[cb`B10+)!/01 5+""%./0D!,%/+ !
,/5$+/%/B
A!(,/!.0!/"0!.[5!.B)/5$%0.5[^]OcP?[[__DbB
125
!*/0!%*?BB?..+3?B?!! ?B?.0%*?B?!.!*!.?B?!**?BB?\ZZ\B
$!.!(0%+*/$%,!03!!*,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/* %*/0.1)!*0(3+.'
"1*0%+*%*#%*/$%6+,$.!*%A[Z5!."+((+3D1,/01 5B$%6+,$.!/_`
O[D\P?c_D[Z]B
)/5?BB?.+1//. ?B?+1( %*#?BB?.%/0+".+?B?((?B?/(+3?BB?
%(('!5?B?!**?B?+),0+*?BB?\Z[[B%"!* 0.!0)!*0#+(/+"
%* %2% 1(/$+/,%0(%6! "+."%./0D!,%/+ !*+*""!0%2!,/5$+/%/B
/5$%0.5!/[bcO]P?]^^DbB
)/5?BB?0!3.0?B?+),0+*?BB?\Z[\B*!),(+5)!*0)+*#,0%!*0/
3%0$*!3(5 %#*+/! "%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A,.!2(!*!* (%*%(
+..!(0!/%*BB/),(!B+/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^aO_P?acaD
bZ]B
! ?B?2*/?B?+..%/+*?BB?+//?BB?\ZZ_B$%( $++ 0.1)?,/5$+/%/
* /$%6+,$.!*%A(%0!.01.!.!2%!33%0$0$!+.!0%(* (%*%(
%),(%0%+*/B0/5$%0.* [[\O_P?]]ZD_ZB
!*3%'?B?2%*?B?( !?B?!5?B?+##%*/?B?'/+*?B?1.*!.?B?
+(!5?B?%((%)/?B?!$*?B?3(+.?B?1((!*?B?W((#$*?B?
\ZZbB.(5%*0!.2!*0%+*/!.2%!"+.,/5$+/%/A2%!3/".+),.%).5.!B
.(5
*0!.2/5$%0.5\O^P?\b_DcZB
+%*/?B?16!?BB?[caZB/0(%/$)!*0+" %#*+/0%2(% %05%*,/5$%0.%
%((*!//A%0/,,(%0%+*0+/$%6+,$.!*%B)/5$%0.5[\`OaP?cb]DaB
+,'!?B?##!./?B?\ZZ_B.(5D+*/!0/$%6+,$.!*%A[_D5!."+((+3D1,B1.
$%( +(!//5$%0.5[^O`P?]^[D_ZB
+//?BB?* !./+*?B?(!%/$!.?BB?+.0+*?BB?[cc\B%//+%0%2!
!4,!.%!*!/)+*#,/5$%0.%%*,0%!*0/B!*+/,/5$%0.5[^O_P?
]_ZD^B
1* ?BB?!((!?
B?.%%/?B?./!*?BB?% +!?BB?,&+. /)+!*?B?
%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?(/$*?B?\ZZ^B!1.++#*%0%2! 5/"1*0%+*
%*"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A+..!(0!/3%0$/5),0+)/?,.!)+.% 126
&1/0)!*0?* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/B)/5$%0.5[`[O]P?
^``Da\B
1/$!*?B?1((!*?BB?1.#!//?B?+. *!.?BB?..5D(/$?B?.1))!.?
BB?()!.?B?.+3*!?B?((!?B?[ccbB1
!* !0$%*,/5$%0.%
,0%!*0/B./5$%0.5[a\]][D`B
0!(?BB? !((?BB?[cc[B+%*!D%* 1! ,.*+%* ,/5$+/%/,.+*!*!//B
)/5$%0.5[^bO[\P?[aZbD[a[[B
1* !./?BB?/(* ?BB?+.?BB? !(1!*0!?BB?.*0?B?[cc]B
!2!(+,)!*0+"0$!(+$+(/!%/+. !./
!*0%"%0%+*!/0O
PA
+((+.0%2!.+&!0+*.(5!0!0%+*+"!./+*/3%0$.)"1(
(+$+(+*/1),0%+*DD
B
%0%+*bbO`P?ac[DbZ^B
$"!.?
B?%/$!.?BB?\Z[[B$%( $++ 0.1)* ,+/00.1)0%/0.!// %/+. !.
%*,0%!*0/3%0$,/5$+/%/A(%*%($((!*#!/* !)!.#%*#0.!0)!*0/B
1..,%*/5$%0.5\^O`P?_[^DbB
$""*!.?B?$%))!()**?BB?%! !./0!!.#?B?$1(06!D100!.?B?\Z[\B
Q0$35/D0+D.!"+.%./0D,%/+ !,/5$+0%,0%!*0/DD*+2!.2%!3+"
%*0!.*0%+*(/01 %!/RB+.0/$.!1.+(/5$%0.bZO\P?a\DbB
$)%06?B?((?B?+.)*?B?.$%!?B?%,1./'5?B?\ZZaB
*+*/%/0!*5%*
0$!.!(0%+*/$%,!03!!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/OP* *!#0%2!/5),0+)/A/+.0%*#+100$!,.+(!)+"$!0!.+#!*!%05B$%6+,$.
!/c]O[D]P?[_\DcB
$3.06?BB?!%(?B?
-(?B?[cc]B/5$+/+%(.!0)!*0/+"$%6+,$.!*%B
/5$%0.%**(/\]O^P?\[`D\\\B
1((5?BB?+'(!5?B?%*/!((?B?
%*#0+*?BB?[ccaB/5$+,0$+(+#5?
!4!10%2!O".+*0(P* #!*!.(+#*%0%2!%),%.)!*0%*.!(0%+*0+
1.0%+*+"%*%0%((51*0.!0! 2!./1//1/!-1!*0(50.!0! ,/5$+/%/%*
$.+*%/$%6+,$.!*%B/5$+(! \aO`P?[]Z]D[ZB
$!*0+*?BB?%'!5?BB?.1)%*?B?.(!5?BB?\ZZ[B.!2%!3+"
"%* %*#/%*/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.!/^cO[D\P?[D_\B
127
$.%2/02?B?$$?B?+$*/0+*?B?0%00?B?$'.?B?$%**/)5?B?\Z[ZB
""!0/+" 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/+*(+*#D0!.)+10+)!+",!+,(!
$+/,%0(%6! 3%0$"%./0!,%/+ !/$%6+,$.!*%B
* %*/5$%0.5_\O\P?
[`^DaB
%*#$?BB?++,!.?BB?%/$!.?BB?..*0?BB?(+5 ?B?*&+?B?+."!?
B?+*!/?B?\ZZ_B!0!.)%*%*#0$!$.+*+(+#5* +),+*!*0/+"
,/5$+/%/+*/!0A$!+00%*#$)*/!0$! 1(!OPB$%6+,$.!/bZ
O[P?[[aD]ZB
'+'1/'/?B?((#$!.?B?\Z[ZB/5$+/%/?""!0%2! %/+. !./* *4%!05%*
10%/0%/,!0.1) %/+. !.A,.!2(!*!* *+/+(+#%(+*/% !.0%+*/B
/5$+,0$+(+#5^]O[P?bD[`B
,13!*?B?*/?B?\ZZ`B$!,/5$+/%/,.+*!*!//A,/5$+/%/,!./%/0!*!
)+ !(/*!4,(*0%+*"+.0$!//+%0%+*!03!!*1.*%%05* ,/5$+/%/B,% !)%+(/%$%0.+[_O^P?\_\DaB
,%06!.?BB?%((%)/?BB?%+*?B?%./0?BB?[cc\B$!0.101.! (%*%(
*0!.2%!3"+.D
DO
PB
A%/0+.5?.0%+*(!?* !/.%,0%+*B.$
!*/5$%0.5^cObP?`\^DcB
0!!(?B?+*( ?B?%(+2!?B?1)*?B?* "+. ?B?!..+*?B?%*/?
BB?
\ZZ`B0$35/0+0$!"%./0+*003%0$/,!%(%/0)!*0($!(0$.!B1/0
/5$%0.5^ZO^P?]^aD_^B
0!,$!*/?BB?%$. ?B?1#$?BB?[ccaB+*#D0!.)"+((+3D1,+",0%!*0/
$+/,%0(%6! "+./$%6+,$.!*%?[c[]0+[c^ZB!.2!*0%/[b_O[\P?
a[_D\[B
0+((?BB?+$!*?B?( !//.%*%?BB?++ 3%*?BB?0!%*?B?06?B?!!*!*/?
B?3%*/+*?BB?+!0$!?BB?(/$*?B?[cc]B$%"0/%* %#*+/0%
".!-1!*%!/+"/$%6+,$.!*%* )&+.""!0%2! %/+. !./0/%4+.0$
)!.%*,/5$%0.%$+/,%0(/?[ca\D[cbbB)/5$%0.5[_ZO[[P?
[``bDa]B
128
0.1//?BB?..+3?B?.+//)*?BB?+/!*?B?\Z[ZB!.%+ /+".!+2!.5%*
!"%%0/5* .+)!/$%6+,$.!*%A\ZD5!.)1(0%D"+((+3D1,(+*#%01 %*(
/01 5B$%6+,$.1((]`O^P?abbDccB
0.1//?BB?.,!*0!.?BB?.B?[caaB.! %0%+*+"+10+)!%*/$%6+,$.!*%B
B
%2!D5!.+10+)!* %0/,.! %0+./B.$!*/5$%0.5]^O\P?[_cD`]B
1.!6?B?.+?BB?\ZZbB2!.2%!3+"0$!"%* %*#/".+)0$!1.+,!*
/01 5B4,!.0!2!1.+0$!.bO`P?ba]DbZB
1*?B?$%((%,/?B?!('+1(%/?B?1*#?B?+..5?BB?++ ?BB?2*.,?B
B?$+),/+*?BB?+#?BB?**+*?BB?*0!(%/?B?\ZZcB
.+#.!//%2!.%*/0.101.($*#!/),,! /,/5$+/%/ !2!(+,/%*W0
.%/'W%* %2% 1(/B$%6+,$.!/[ZbO[D]P?b_Dc\B
* !.#?B?!(* ?B?1* !0?B?$.?B?+?
B?+$**!//!*?BB?./!*?B
B?,&+. /)+!*?B?1* ?BB?+//!.#?B
B?%)+*/!*?B?#(1)?B?
!((!?
B?.%%/?B?(/$*?B?\Z[[B!1.++#*%0%+** +1,0%+*(
"1*0%+*%*#%*,0%!*0/3%0$"%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A\D5!."+((+3D1,
/01 5B/5$%0.5!/[bbO]P?]]^D^\B
* +*?B?!/$2*?BB?/.(($?BB?\ZZbB$%6+,$.!*%?X&1/00$!"0/X
3$03!'*+3%*\ZZbB\B,% !)%+(+#5* !0%+(+#5B$%6+,$.!/[Z\
O[D]P?[D[bB
* +*?B?/.(($?BB?!/$2*?BB?\ZZcB$%6+,$.!*%?X&1/00$!"0/X^B
(%*%("!01.!/* +*!,01(%60%+*B$%6+,$.!/[[ZO[D]P?[D\]B
*/'*!*?B?+.*0?B?%*0+*?B?(+5 D2*/?B?.+/5?B?%((/,5?B?
%*!?B?%((%*#?B?+$*/+*?B?\Z[[B!.2%!1/!.* .!.!4,!.%!*!/+"
/!!'%*#$!(,"+."%./0!,%/+ !+",/5$+/%/A-1(%00%2!/01 5B
/5$%0.5[[[_aB
..%!.?B?$*?B?0!.?B?%'!*?B?\ZZaB$!/1&!0%2!+*/!-1!*!/+"
/1""!.%*#"%./0!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/A0.1)* /1%% !!$2%+1.B+
/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^\O[P?\cD]_B
129
%.1,0%?BB?*#/3)5?B?)*?B?\ZZ^B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/
* 0.!0)!*0+10+)!%*/$%6+,$.!*%,0%!*0/1*0.!0! "+.)*5
5!./B1/0/5$%0.5]bO_P?]]cD^]B
+3*/!* ?BB?+.)*?BB?((?BB?5$(+?BB?$)! ?BB?\ZZ\B
$*#!/%*+#*%0%2!"1*0%+*%*#"+((+3%*#+),.!$!*/%2!0.!0)!*0"+.
"%./0!,%/+ !,0%!*0/3%0$/$%6+,$.!*%/,!0.1) %/+. !./B/5$%0.5
!/[[]O[D\P?`cDb[B
1.*!.?B?.+3*!?B?(.'!?B?!.2%*?B?.'%*?B?
%*#0+*?B
B?W((#$*?B?\ZZcB),(+5)!*0/001/)+*#/00$+/!3%0$,/5$+/%/
0"%./0,.!/!*00%+*B+/5$%0.5/5$%0.,% !)%+(^^O[ZP?b`]DcB
+'?B?+(0?B?!*?B?'%.?B?1.*?B?\ZZ^B1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/)5,.! %010!0.!0)!*0.!/,+*/!%*"%./0D!,%/+ !
/$%6+,$.!*%B/5$%0.!/]bO\P?[`]DbB
%((*0?BB?[c`\B$!,.! %0%+*+".!+2!.5%*/$%6+,$.!*%B!.2!*0%/
[]__]^D^]B
2*!!13!*?B?\ZZ[B10$(3* !0$%/+*!.*%*#0$!!4,!.%)!*0(
0.!0)!*0+"!.(5,/5$+/%/B$%6+,$.!/_[O[P?`]DaB
2*/?B?\ZZ]B
/0$!.!+*0%*11)+",/5$+0%!4,!.%!*!/%*0$!#!*!.(
,+,1(0%+*F,% !)%+(/%$%0.+[\O^P?\^\D_\B
//+/?B?! !./!*?BB?1..5?BB?+((%!.?BB?!3%/?BB?\Z[\B!0D
*(5/%/+"0$!//+%0%+*+"1.*%%053%0$/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.1((
]bO`P?[[[bD\]B
!(%*#?B?+!'?BB?!(0!*?BB?1//!.?B?\Z[[B#!0)%#.0%+** "101.!
.%/'+",/5$+0% %/+. !./)+*#%))%#.*0/%*0$!!0$!.(* /AaD5!.
%*% !*!/01 5B)/5$%0.5[`bO[\P?[\abDb_B
!. +14?B?%.1 ?B?!.#!5?B?//!*/?B?(*?B?2*/?B?\ZZ[B
/0$!
//+%0%+*!03!!* 1.0%+*+"1*0.!0! ,/5$+/%/* +10+)!
+*"+1* ! F03+5!."+((+3D1,/01 5+""%./0D )%00! ,0%!*0/B
$%6+,$.!/^cO]P?\][D^[B
130
. ?BB?.%! )*?B?%/!?B?$1(6?BB?[cc`B!0D*(5/%/+".%** .*%(/%6!%*/$%6+,$.!*%B$%6+,$.!/\\O]P?[caD\[]B
$%0!?B?0%.(%*#?B?+,'%*/?B?+..%/?B?+*0#1!?B?*0)?B?!3%/?B?
\ZZcB.! %0+./+"[ZD5!.+10+)!+""%./0D!,%/+ !,/5$+/%/B/5$+(
! ]cOcP?[^^aD_`B
%!./)?B?%!*$1%/?BB?(++""?BB?%!(?B?[ccbB01.(+1./!+"
/$%6+,$.!*% %/+. !./A[_D5!."+((+31,+"10$%*% !*!+$+.0B
$%6+,$.1((\^O[P?a_Db_B
%!./)?B?* !.(%*#?B?.#+)%.!'?B?*!2?B?..%/+*?B?*!.
!% !*?B?%!*$1%/?BB?(/$?B?\ZZZB+%( %/%(%05%*
/$%6+,$.!*%A%0/ !2!(+,)!*0* ,.! %0%+*+2!.[_5!./%*%*% !*!
+$+.0/%*/%41.+,!*!*0.!/B/5$+(! ]ZO_P?[[__D`aB
%(/+*?B?[cc]BD
* 0$!0.*/"+.)0%+*+")!.%*,/5$%0.5A
$%/0+.5B)/5$%0.5[_ZO]P?]ccD^[ZB
++ .1""?BB?*1/?
BB?2% ?BB?[cc_B!0D*(5/%/+"+.,1/
((+/1)/%6!%*/$%6+,$.!*%B!1.+(!1.+/1.#/5$%0.5_bO^P?^_aD
`[B
!!?B?+.*!.?BB?3%##*?B?!.!/?BB?0!2!*/+*?B?\ZZ_B!./%/0!*0
$((1%*+/%/%*+. !.(%*!,!./+*(%05 %/+. !.B+),./5$%0.5^`O\P?
[^aD_^B
1*#?BB?!(/+*?B?0*"+. ?B?%))+*/?BB?+/#.2!?BB?%(('!5?B?
$%((%,/?BB?!$ +("?B?1'5?B?+..5?BB?\ZZbB(% 0%+*+"
X,.+ .+)(X.%0!.%0+ !0!0%* %2% 1(/01(0.$%#$.%/'+",/5$+/%/A\
5!."+((+3D1,B$%6+,$.!/[Z_O[D]P?[ZDaB
1*#?BB?.#*?BB?..%/?BB?\ZZ]B*#!)!*0+"!.(5,/5$+/%/%*
#!*!.% 1(0)!*0($!(0$/!.2%!B1/0/5$%0.5]aO^P?^\cD]`B
131
10. Appendices
10.1 Table I. Long-term outcome studies in psychosis.
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O+00(!* !.!0
(B?\ZZ]@
+00(!* !.?
0.1//?;
+((!.?\Z[Z@
#!.?
+00(!* !.?
0.1//?;
+((!.?\ZZ^@
BB+((!.?
+00(!* !.?
!#*!.?
%00)**?;
0.1//?
\ZZZP
[aa@"%./0!,%/+ !
+"/6Of`[P?/
Of_bP?+.
""B,/5$+/!/
Of_bPO
D[c?
D
@
D[Z?
D
P
[_
5!./
**$!%)%/%(%05//!//)!*0
$! 1(!O2!./%+*+"DP?
%*(1 %*#K3+.'.+(!!$2%+1.L
?=G+"/6* C=G+"/K*+
%),%.)!*0%*
3+.'.+(!
!$2%+1.LB[^d
+"/6*+/+%(
%/%(%050((B
OBB+((!.?
f[[^O/6Aa`@/A
+00(!* !.?B? ]bPe]\+*0.+(/
.+//?B?
\.!ZZ\P
[_
5!./
@!.)*,/5$+,0$+(+#5
%*2!*0+.5
Dh*!#0%2!/5),0+)/A
O/%)%(.0+P
/6Aa^d
/A^ad
/6h_ZA``d
/6g_[A]^d
/h_ZAa^d
/g_[A\`d
O..+3?
.+//)*?
+!?;
!.!*!.?
\ZZ_P
[_
5!./
!2!*/0!%*D(!%*D+(('/(!@
0.1//D.,!*0!.(!A[5!.+"
*+/5),0+)/?*+ )%//%+*/?*+
,++./+%("1*0%+*%*#?(%2%*#
%* !,!* !*0(5?* 3+.'%*#$("
0%)!+.)+.!
K2%*#$ ,!.%+ /+".!+2!.5L?
((,/5$+/!/? 1.%*#0$!(/0[_
5!./
A>FG
"+.)A?BG
0$!.,/5$+/!/A
^]d
^Zd
f\a^
132
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O..+3!0
(B?\ZZ^P
f[^c/6* *+*D
/6 !(1/%+*(
%$,0%!*0/
.!.1%0! 0%* !4
$+/,%0(%/0%+*
[[?_
5!./
0.1//D.,!*0!.@3+.'/(!
BDG+"
*+* !(1/%+*(
/6D,0%!*0/
3+.'! )+.!
0$*$("0%)!@
FG+"K2!.5
!(1/%+*(L % O..+3;
+!?\Z[ZP
f\ZZO/6D
/,!0.1)+*(5A
f_]P
\Z
5!./
0.1//D.,!*0!.A[5!.+"*+
/5),0+)/?*+ )%//%+*/?*+,++.
/+%("1*0%+*%*#?(%2%*#
%* !,!* !*0(5?* 3+.'%*#$("
0%)!+.)+.!
>>G+"
!(1/%+*(* BDG+"
*+* !(1/%+*(
/6D,0%!*0/$ $ +*!+.)+.!
,!.%+ /+"
.!+2!.5+2!.
0$!,/0[b5!./
O!*/0!%*
!0(B?\ZZ\P
f[a]K!.(5
+1./!,/5$+/%/L@
/6AfaZ
[Z
5!./
0.1//D.,!*0!.@3+.'/(!
@@G+"3$+(!
/),(!
O%*(1 %*#
""!0%2!
,/5$+/%/P)+.!
0$*$("0%)!
3+.'
O..+3?
.+//)*?
!.!*!.?;
2%!/?\ZZZP
f[Z`/6e/
Oe[Z^+*0.+(/P
[Z
5!./
!2!*/0!%*D(!%*D+(('/(!
O%*(1 %*#[5!.//!*!+"
/5),0+)/* "1*0%+*%*#P@
0.1//D.,!*0!.(!?[5!.A
3+.'
AIA=G
.!+2!.! ^ZD_\d+"/6
,++.+10+)!
O/5),0+)/e,++.
"1*0%+*%*#P
.!+2!.5.0!
*+0.!,+.0! OEP
O.!*#+?
..+3?
!.!*!.?;
* /?\ZZZ
fa[!.(5?*+*D
$.+*%+$+.0@
/6e/
[Z
5!./
5),0+)+10+)!/O?
/5$%0.%//!//)!*0
*0!.2%!3P
_cd*+
!(1/%+*/
`cd*+
$((1%*0%+*/
`_d*+"(0
""!0
_cd*+
!,.!//! )++ 133
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O..%/+*!0
(B?\ZZ[P
f[[a[@[^
0.!0! %*% !*!
+$+.0/@/6?* K+0$!.,/5$+/!/L
[_
* \Z
5!./
(!1(!./(!+".!+2!.5?(/0[\
)+*0$/@D
(!1(!..!+2!.! [)+*0$A
(!1(!..!+2!.! [)+*0$e
h`Z
(!1(!..!+2!.! eh`Ze*+
!,%/+ !+"0.!0)!*0(/0\5!./
+,/5$+/%/(/0\5!./
h`Z
D!4!((!*0M#++ O/5),0+)/* /+%(%*(3+.'
.+(!P
% 3+.'O"1((0%)!0(!/0,.0+"
0$!0%)!LP
[_d%*
!2!(+,! +1*0.%!/
]ad%*
!2!(+,%*#
+1*0.%!/
0$!.,/5$+/!/
a[d
/6A^bd
0$!.,/5$+/!/A
__d
A]bd
0$!.,/5$+/!/A
]`d
6A[`d
((,/5$+/!/A
_Zd
/6A^\d
((,/5$+/!/A
_ZBad
/6A^Zd
((,/5$+/!/A
^Zd
6A]]d
A]ad
O%!./)!0
(B?\ZZZP
f_ZZ*+*D
[_
""!0%2!,/5$+/%/? 5!./
K.!!*0LO3%0$%*\
5!./,.%+.0+
%*(1/%+*P+*/!0
.!/!*000!4)%*0%+*
D
%"!$.0$! 1(!O/5),0+)/?
0.!0)!*0?.!/% !*5?!),(+5)!*0P
+.'A $ $%(
' "%"$#$!#$ $' "
+/+%(
%/%(%05?
%*(1 %*#"1((D
0%)!3+.'A>AG
134
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O/+*?
..%/+*?
(6!.++'?
! (!5?;
.+1 !?
[cc`@/+*
!0(B?[cc_P
f`a?%*% !*!
+$+.0/6O
DcP
[]
5!./
?
%"!$.0$! 1(!(/0\5!./
O/5),0+)/?0.!0)!*0?.!/% !*5?
!),(+5)!*0P
(!1(!..!+2!.5,/0)+*0$
O3$%$(0!.!)!D
P?(/0)+*0$
]^d
+*0%*1+1/(5
,/5$+0%O\
5!./P
_`d(!1(!.
.!+2!.! O[
)+*0$P
^cd/h`Z
_Zd"h`Z
cad(%2%*#
%* !,!* !*0(5
)+/0+"(/0\
5!./
]\d"1((D0%)!
!),(+5)!*00
/+)!,+%*00$!
(/0\5!./
^]d*+
5/"1*0%+*%*
/+%(.+(!/
[ad+),(!0!
.!+2!.5+2!.
K(+*#!.0!.)LA
*+/5),0+)/?*+
%/%(%05?*+
0.!0)!*0
O%!./)?
%!*$1%/?
(++""?;%!(?
[ccbP
fb\%*% !*!
+$+.0*+*D
""!0%2!,/5$+/%/
[_
5!./
[bd*!2!.
.!(,/! "0!.[/0
!,%/+ !
+),(!0!.!)%//%+*A/5),0+)".!!
* /$+3%*#0$!%.1/1(
,!./+*(%05?[)+*0$?
1*%),%.! D"1*0%+*%*#
\ad
135
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O*!2?
`ZK.!!*0+*/!0L
*$!2?;
O3%0$%*\5!./
2*+2?[ccbP ,.%+.0+%*(1/%+*P
[`
5!./
/0\5!./+"3+.'* /+%(M3+.'"1*0%+*%*#
/5),0+)/
++ +10+)!A&+?*+,/5$+/%/
(/0\5!./?(%2%*#%* !,!* !*0(5?
)..%! +. %2+.! \[d"1((D0%)!
3+.'
]bd*+
,/5$+0%
/5),0+)/
^`d
+*0%*1+1/(5
,/5$+0%
][dh`Z
][d
O.*!.+/?
!%/0!.?;
+$ !?[ccZP
\_
5!./
O/%)%(.0+P
1((/5),0+).!)%//%+*O1*(!.
0%)!.%0!.%+*P
!.)*D?(/0)+*0$
!4!((!*0 &1/0)!*0
2!.5#++ &1/0)!*0A
4!((!*0+.#++ A
++ ?2!.5#++ +.!4!((!*0
&1/0)!*0A
/6A][dhaZ
/AacdhaZ
/6Aad
/A_Zd
/6Aad
/A_^d
/6Acd
/A[`d
/6A[`d
/AaZd
/6A]`d
/AcZd
f^Z\O6eAf
\^cP
O!%/0+?
f\`c$.+*%
. %*#?
/),(!
+.)%'?
/$%'#?;
.++'/?[cc_P
]Z
5!./ +))1*%05//!//)!*0(!
%*%)!*0(/00!
^adK3+.'%*#%*
/+)!,%05L
%*!.)+*0@\`d
%*%*!
O+,,!.;
* !.(%*#?
\ZZZP
[]
5!./
\^d!4!((!*0+.
#++ O3!/0!.*
+1*0.%!/P
fbZc%*% !*!
+$+.0/6* +0$!.*+*D""B
,/5$+/!/
D(/0)+*0$
136
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O+ !/0%*?
1!.?0%.(%?
(0%?;!((?
\ZZ]P
f\ZbO+"3$+)
aZdD
/6PB
%4! $.+*%* %*% !*!/),(!B
\]
5!./
!+2!.5f*+,/5$+0%/5),0+)/
O/+)!)%( .!/% 1!/((+3! P?"1((
0%)!3+.'?* 1*%),%.! /+%(
"1*%0+*%*#
\\d
O1?+*#?
1?;/+%?
\ZZ]P
f^Z\/6@
Dc
+*"%.)! %#*+/%/?
"%./00%)!
$+/,%0(%/! [Z
+.'%*#* 0.!0)!*0/001/(/0
`)+*0$/
bDcO2!.5$%#$P
++ A*+0%*0.!0)!*0?3!((?
3+.'%*#
%.A*+0%*0.!0)!*0?*+03+.'%*#@
+.+10D,0%!*0* 3+.'%*#
++.A%*0.!0)!*0O+.
$+/,%0(%/! P* *+03+.'%*#
1((0%)!3+.'
^]B_d0\Z
5!./
]\d
]]d
]_d
^ZB]d
O0.1//?
..+3?
.+//)*?;
+/!*?\Z[ZP
*f]c
\Z
5!./
0.1//D.,!*0!.A[5!.+"*+
/5),0+)/?*+ )%//%+*/?*+,++.
/+%("1*0%+*%*#?(%2%*#
%* !,!* !*0(5?* 3+.'%*#$("
0%)!+.)+.!
!"%%0,0%!*0/A
[]d
*+*D !"%%0
,0%!*0/A
`]d
O0!,$!*/?
%$. ?;
1#$?
[ccaP
*f^b^?+"3$+)
^a`/6D/,!0.1)@
"%./0 )%//%+*?
(/+"%./00.!0)!*0
!,%/+ !
_D\c
5!./
@
)!*
[]Bb
5!./
5),0+)+1./!* (!2!(/A
.!+2!.! f*+.!/% 1(/5),0+)/?
*+)%*+.!4!.0%+*/?*+"1.0$!.
$+/,%0(%/0%+*
[]dO/6+*(5A
adP
O$%0!!0(B?
\ZZcP
f[Zc
[Z
5!./
%"!$.0$! 1(!@(/0\^
)+*0$/A)+*0$/+"%* !,!* !*0
(%2%*#?)+*0$/+"3+.'@
++.+10+)!+. %*#0+!*!.(
.0%0%+*!.1!/0%+**%.!A,++.
)!*0($!(0$?*+3+.'?,++./+%(
"1*0%+*%*#
3+.'%*#00%)!+"//!//)!*0
3+.'(/05!.
3+.'%*#)+.!0$*_+"(/0[Z
5!./
`]d
*+0D,++.A]ad
[cd
\]d
^^d
137
!"!.!*!/
?/),(!
%)!
/,*
!+2!.5M
+10+)!
)!/1.!
.!+2!.5@
!),(+5)!*0
+10+)!
O'%*!*!0
(B?\Z[ZP
*f^`O[c``
%.0$+$+.0P
[Z
5!./
!#0%2!/5),0+)/
]cd
O$.%2/02
!0(B?\Z[ZP
f[Z[/6O+.%#%*(
/),(!f\ZZP
[Z
5!./
+$+/,%0(%/0%+*(/0\5!./?
hbZ?+
hbZ?
]+.$%#$!.O+*]D_/(!P+*/(!
"+.K/+%("1*0%+*%*#?
%* !,!* !*0(%2%*#?! 10%+*?
/+%(1. !*L@
K(%*%((+(
),.!//%+*(!L
),(+5! ++ /+%("1*B
* !,B(%2%*#
!+2!.! \ZdD]Zd
\]dD]\d
_Zd
]\dD^`d
O!*.5!0(B?
\Z[ZP
f`_[O+.%#%*(
/),(!fa\]P
a
5!./
h`Z
!)%//%+*A* !/!*3+.'#.+1,D
.%0!.%)%*1/0$!`)+*0$/0%)!D
.%0!.%+*
+%(.!+2!.5A]%0!)/A/+%(?
/%(%2%*#0/'/?* 3+.'?O*5
,% !),(+5)!*0?+./$++(h$("
0%)!P
),(+5! "1((D0%)!
^\B[d
]`Bbd
]ZB_d
\\d
138
10.2 Table II. Definitions and lengths of DUP across the
world
*&
O+* +?[caaP
',!'&5
$%*
fb\
O+$*/0+*!!0
(B?[cb`P
*%0! %*# +)
f\_]
O%*!.!0
(B?[cb`P
f`^
O%.$3++ !0
(B?[cc\P
*%0! %*# +)
f[]a
O/* 3!!*!5?[cc\P
fa[
O+!!(!0
(B?[cc\P
faZ
O!%/!.!0
(B?[cc]P
* fa[[
O"*!.!0
(B?[cc]P
!.)*5
f[`_
O./!*!0
(B?[cc`P
+.35
f^]
O+..5!0
(B?[cc`P
1/0.(%
f\ZZ
O1((5!0
(B?[ccaP
.!(* f^b\
O%!./)!0
$!!0$!.(* /
!&!,!'&
I1.0%+*+"%((*!//!"+.!
/!!'%*#,/5$%0.%00!*0%+*@
g[5!.?[D]5!./?+.h]5!./B
I
*0!.2(!03!!*+*/!0* )%//%+*J
I%)!".+)"%./0/%#*+"
!$2%+1.($*#!/0+
/!(%*!%*0!.2%!3J
I1.0%+*+"+*/!0?%B!B 1.0%+*
+"%((*!//!"+.!0.!0)!*0JB
.!0)!*0f$+/,%0( )%//%+*B
I%)!".+)+*/!0+""%./0
,+/%0%2!O?* .!/!*!0(?
[cb^P/5),0+)0+"%./0
$+/,%0(%60%+*J
I%)!".+)+*/!0+",/5$+0%
/5),0+)/O* !$2%+1.M,!./+*(%05$*#!P
0+/01 5%*(1/%+*J
I.!0)!*0(#f%*0!.2(
!03!!*!)!.#!*!+"10!
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/* %*%0%0%+*+"0.!0)!*0/!!'%*#J
I%)!".+)+*/!0+""%./0D.*'
/5),0+)//!//! 5
/0* . %/! %*/0.1)!*0
O
P?0+"%./0
$+/,%0(%/0%+*J
I%)!".+)/+.!+"^+.$%#$!.
+*0(!/0+*!,+/%0%2!
/1/(!%0!)?0$.+1#$+100$!
5"+./!2!.( 5/+./!2!.(
5/3!!'0+%*%0%0%+*+"
!-10!0.!0)!*0O !"%*! PBJ
I%)!".+)+*/!0+",/5$+/%/
0+$+/,%0( )%//%+*J
I$!%*0!.2(!03!!*#!0
+*/!0+"%((*!//* #!0
%*%0%0%+*+"*!1.+(!,0%
0.!0)!*0J
I%)!".+)+*/!0+",+/%0%2!
$&, g[5!.A`^d
[D]5!./A\Zd
h]5!./A[`d
Og[5!.A_\dP
g\)+*0$/A\bd
\D`)+*0$/A\^?_d
`D[\)+*0$/A\`d
h[5!.A\`d
h*'*+3*A[\d
!*A[^B_)+*0$/
O,,.+4B`\3!!'/P
!*A]ZB]3!!'/
g[5!.A^]Bbd
h[5!.A_`B\d
!*A_[Bc3!!'/
Ob\B]P
!*A_`B[3!!'/
! %*AE7?3!!'/
!*A\B[5!./
O,,.+4B[Zc3!!'/P
!*A[[^B\3!!'/
O[a]B`P
! %*A?C3!!'/
!*A[c]Ba 5/O\b
3!!'/PO`[_B`P
! %*A\_ 5/
O,,.+4BA3!!'/P
!*A[]Bc5!./O
[[BcP
^ZdA2!.#!+"]
1
2
Excluding affective psychoses
Patients became ill before neuroleptic treatment was introduced; hence DUP is very long
139
(B?[ccbP
fb\
/5),0+)/0+%*%0%0%+*+"
)!*0($!(0$0.!0)!*0J
O.*!/!0
(B?\ZZZP
*%0! %*# +)
f_]
O+00(!* !.!0
(B?\ZZZP
!.)*5
fccb
I%)!".+)+*/!0+",+/%0%2!
/5),0+)/
O!$2%+1.M,!./+*(%05$*#!
* ,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/P0+"%./0
0.!0)!*03%0$*0%D,/5$+0%J
I%)!".+)"%./0]
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/0+"%./0
$+/,%0(%/0%+*J
O.+3*!!0
(B?\ZZZP
.!(* f_]
O.%#!0(B?\ZZZP
f[__
O/$%6+,$.!*%
* /$%6+""!0%2!P
*%0! %*# +)
f\^b
O.'!!0
(B?\ZZZP
O+!0(B?\ZZZP
fa^
O+""!0(B?\ZZZP
f_Z
O%!./)!0
(B?\ZZZP
1.+,!
f[c_
O(0)1.!0
(B?\ZZ[P
0(5
f`a
I%)!".+)!)!.#!*!+"
,/5$+0%/5),0+)//
)!/1.! +*0$!
?0+"%./0
$+/,%0(%/0%+*J
I%)!".+)"%./0,/5$+0%
/5),0+)/+. %*#0+
* +0$!.2%((!
%*"+.)0%+*?0+"%./0
$+/,%0(%/0%+*J
I%./0+*/!0+" !(1/%+*/?
$((1%*0%+*/0+/01 5
%*(1/%+*J
I[P$!0%)!,!.%+ ".+)0$!
+*/!0+"0$!"%./0/5),0+)0+
0$!%*%0%0%+*+"*!1.+(!,0%
0.!0)!*0\P
$!0%)!,!.%+ ".+)0$!+*/!0
+""1((,+/%0%2!/5* .+)!0+
0$!%*%0%0%+*+"*!1.+(!,0%
0.!0)!*0B
J1.0%+*O%*)+*0$/P+"
!(1/%+*/?$((1%*0%+*/?+.
"+.)(0$+1#$0 %/+. !.!"+.!
0.!0)!*0BJ
I%)!!03!!*0$!O!/0%)0! P
+*/!0+",/5$+0%/5),0+)/
* 0$!"%./0+*003%0$
)!*0($!(0$,.+"!//%+*(J
J$!%*0!.2(!03!!*0$!
+*/!0+"0$!%((*!//* 0$!
%),(!)!*00%+*+"0$!"%./0
*0%,/5$+0%0.!0)!*0BJ
)+*0$/@_^dA
I%))! %0!J
0.!0)!*0
!*A_c3!!'/O
c]P
! %*A?C3!!'/
d+",0%!*0/A
g[3!!'A[_B]
[D^3!!'/A\\Bc
[D])+*0$/A[_Bb
]D`)+*0$/A[[B\
`D[\)+*0$/AbB^
[D\5!./A[]B_
\D]5!./A]B`
h]5!./AcB[
Og[5!.Aa]B`P
!*A\\Ba3!!'/^
O]`BbP! %*A
C3!!'/*#!A[D
\^Z3!!'/
! %*Acb 5/O>A
3!!'/P
! %*A>?3!!'/
*#!A^D`\^3!!'/
h\5!./A`B_d
[P!*[]ZB_3!!'/
O\Z^P! %*
_]B_3!!'/
\P!*`ZBb3!!'/
O[]ZB_P
! %*A>@7B3!!'/
!*A[[B^)+*0$/
O,,.+4B^b3!!'/P
O[`B\P
*#!A[Da\)+*0$/
!*A\B^)+*0$/
O,,.+4B[Z3!!'/P
*#!AZD\])+*0$/
h])+*0$/A\Zd
%*#(!!,%/+ !
,0%!*0/A!*Aa
)+*0$/O,,.+4B]Z
3!!'/PO^B]P
1(0%D!,%/+ !
,0%!*0/A!*A\]B`
3
ADMP: Association for methodology and Documentation in Psychiatry; a rating scale
There was a discrepancy between self-reported DUP and DUP as reported by relatives; relatives’
scores had a mean of 15.9 weeks (sd 34.5); median 3 weeks, range 0-240 weeks.
4
140
O+.)*!0
(B?\ZZ[P
* f[[]
O!. +14!0
(B?\ZZ[P
.*!
f`__
O))%*#!.!0
(B?\ZZ\P
1/0.(%
f^\
O+00(!* !.!0
(B?\ZZ\P
!.)*5
f[c`
O((!0(B?\ZZ\P
%*(* * ,%*
fb`
O((!0(B?\ZZ\P * f[[^
O((!0(B?\ZZ\P * fbb
)+*0$/O,,.+4B[Z[
3!!'/PO[_B[P
I$!,!.%+ ".+)%*%0%(+*/!0
O+*/!0P!*A
+",/5$+/%/0+0.!0)!*0%/
[^B`)+*0$/O,,.+4B
.!"!..! 0+/O+*/!0P@* `]3!!'/P
0$!!/0%)0! 1)1(0%2!
! %*A_Ba)+*0$/
,!.%+ +"0%2!,/5$+/%//
O,,.+4B?A3!!'/P
O0%2!PBJ
*#!AZB]D[\^Bb
)+*0$/
O0%2!P!*A
[ZB])+*0$/
O,,.+4B^^3!!'/P
! %*A^Bc)+*0$/
O,,.+4B\[3!!'/P
*#!AZB]DabB\
)+*0$/
I%)!".+)+*/!0+""%./0
!*A\\Ba)+*0$/
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/0+
O,,.+4Bca3!!'/P
)%//%+*J
O_cB]P! %*A
])+*0$/O,,.+4B>@
3!!'/P
*0!.-1.0%(!
.*#!AZB_D[]
I3/ !"%*! /0$!,!.%+ !*A\^`B] 5/O]_
+"0%)!!03!!*0$!"%./0
3!!'/PO_\_B\P
!4,!.%!*!+" !(1/%+*/+.
! %*Aa`B_ 5/
$((1%*0%+*/* )%//%+*0+ O>>3!!'/P
3$%$3/1/1((53$!*
*!1.+(!,0%0.!0)!*03/
+))!*! BJ
J$!,!.%+ !03!!*0$!+*/!0 g`)+*0$/A_[d`D
+",/5$+0%/5),0+)/* 0$! [\)+*0$/A[^Bbdh
"%./0,/5$%0.% )%//%+*J
[5!.A]^B\d
%*(* Of^cPA
I3/ !"%*! /0$!0%)!
%*0!.2(!03!!*0$!"%./0
!*A^)+*0$/
)*%"!/00%+*+",/5$+0%
O,,.+4B[a3!!'/P
/5),0+)/O$((1%*0%+*/?
O`P! %*A
0$+1#$0 %/+. !.+.
\)+*0$/OE7B
%*,,.+,.%0!M%6..!
3!!'/P*#!AZD
!$2%+1.?0$.+1#$+100$! 5 \_
"+./!2!.( 5/+./!2!.(
,%*Of]aPA
0%)!/3!!'?*+0(%)%0! 0+
!*AcBc)+*0$/
.%!")+)!*0/P* )%//%+* O,,.+4B^\3!!'/P
"+.0.!0)!*0BJ
O[bB^P! %*A
\)+*0$/OE7B
3!!'/P*#!AZD
a\
I!*#0$+"%((*!//A%)!+"
!*A\B\5!./
+*/!0+"*5,/5$+0%
O,,.+4B[[_3!!'/P
/5),0+)OMP* 0$! O]B_P
0%)!+"0$!D/*J
I$!0%)!+"+*/!0+""%./0
!*A^^B`3!!'/
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/
O``B`P! %*A
5
22 of these had received antipsychotic mediaction previously
141
O((!0(B?\ZZ\P * f``
O+3*/!* !0
(B?\ZZ\P
* fb]
O !*!0
(B?\ZZ]P
$!!0$!.(* /
fbb
O+!0(B?\ZZ]P
f[_``
O!/$2*!0
(B?\ZZ]P
f[Z^
+*0%#1+1/3%0$0$!,.!/!*0%*#
!,%/+ !0+0$!0%)!+"$2%*#
.!!%2! *0%,/5$+0%0$!.,5
"+.,!.%+ +"\)+*0$/1*(!//
/%#*%"%*0.!/,+*/!0+
)! %0%+*3/$%!2! !.(%!.BJ
I$!0%)!+"+*/!0+",/5$+0%
/5),0+)/+*0%#1+1/3%0$0$!
,.!/!*0!,%/+ !?0+0$!0%)!+"
%*%0%0%+*+" !-10!
*0%,/5$+0%0.!0)!*0J
OMP
I$!0%)!+"0$!+*/!0+"0$!
"%./0,/5$+0%/5),0+)/1*0%(
!%0$!.[)+*0$+"0.!0)!*0
3%0$*0%,/5$+0%)! %0%+*
+./%#*%"%*0/5),0+)
.! 10%+*O !"%*! (%*%((5
0$.+1#$%*0!.2%!33%0$
,.+#.)/0""P$ !!*
+0%*! ?3$%$!2!.+1..! !.(%!.BJO//!//! 3%0$
)+ %"%! P
[BI%)!".+)+*/!0+"
!(1/%+*/?$((1%*0%+*/?
* M+. %/+.#*%/! !$2%+1.?
0+%*%0%0%+*+"*0%,/5$+0%
0.!0)!*0J
\BJ%)!".+)+*/!0+"
!(1/%+*/?$((1%*0%+*/?
* M+. %/+.#*%/! !$2%+1.?
0+%*%0%0%+*+"%*0!*/%2!
,/5$+/+%(0.!0)!*0J
I%)!,!.%+ ".+)0$!+*/!0+"
0$!"1((,+/%0%2!/5* .+)!0+
0$!%*%0%0%+*+"*0%,/5$+0%
0.!0)!*0BX1((,/5$+0%
/5* .+)!X3/ !"%*! /0$!
,.!/!*!+"*5+*!+""%2!
,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/O%B!B?
!(1/%+*/?$((1%*0%+*/?
%6..!Q %/+.#*%6! R
!$2%+./?,+/%0%2!"+.)(
0$+1#$0 %/+. !.?* 00+*%
)+0+.!$2%+.P.0! 0
/!2!.%05(!2!(+")+ !.0!+.
3+./!BJ
J$!0%)!%*0!.2(O%*3!!'/P
!03!!*+*/!0+",/5$+0%
/5),0+)/O$((1%*0%+*/?
!(1D/%+*/?+. %/+.#*%60%+*
+"0$%*'%*#@%6..!+.00+*%
??7B3!!'/
!*2(1!(+3!.
_Zd+"/),(!AcB\
3!!'/O`B[]P
%#$!/0_Zd+"
/),(!AbZB[3!!'/
O`cB_P
!*A__B[3!!'/
O\]B[P! %*A
?@7>3!!'/
! %*A?A3!!'/
[B!*AbB`)+*0$/
O,,.+4B]a3!!'/P
O[[B^P
! %*A])+*0$/
O,,.+4B>@3!!'/P
\B
!*A[c)+*0$/
O,,.+4Bb[3!!'/P
O[cP
!*Aa^B]3!!'/
O[^_B[P
! %*A>@3!!'/
*0!.-1.0%(!.*#!A
_\3!!'/
!*Ac_Ba3!!'/
O[`]B^P
! %*A@A7A3!!'/
*#!AZB]D[[a[
6
Approximately 20% were not neuroleptic naive, but none of the patients had received antipsychotic treatment
for longer than 3 months
142
O1!0(B?\ZZ]P
%*#,+.!
f^Z\
O %*#0+*!0
(B?\ZZ^P
* f\ZZ
O!.'%*/!0
(B?\ZZ^P
f[c[a
O%.1,0%!0
(B?\ZZ^P
* %
f^c
O+'!0(B?\ZZ^P
1.'!5
fac
O+,'!* ##!./?\ZZ_P
!.)*5
f__O.(5+*/!0
/),(!?)!*#!
[`5!./P
O$%0!!0
(B?\ZZcP
*%0! %*# +)
f[Zc
O$.%2/02!0
(B?\Z[ZP
* %
f[Z[
!$2%+.P* %* !4 )%//%+*
%*0+0$%//01 5BJ
I%)!+"!)!.#!*!+"
,/5$+0%/5),0+)/O+0$
,+/%0%2!* *!#0%2!P0+0$!
0%)!+""%./0 )%//%+*J
J$!,+%*00O".+)P3$%$0$!
"%./0,+/%0%2!/5),0+)3/
,.!/!*0* 0$!*O0+P0$!
(!*#0$+"0%)!%*3!!'/1*0%(
0$!"%./0!""!0%2!0.!0)!*0
3/%*%0%0! J
+/%0%2!/5),0+)/.0! 0
(!/0^+*0$!B$!
/5),0+)O/P)1/0$2!(/0! 0$.+1#$+100$! 5"+./!2!.(
5/+./!2!.(0%)!/3!!'?
*+0!%*#(%)%0! 0+"!3.%!"
)+)!*0/BJ
/!+"
B
I*/!0+""%./0,/5$+0%
/5),0+)0++*/!0+"0.!0)!*0
O/ !"%*! %*/01 5PJB/!+"
B
I$!+*0%*1+1/,!.%+ !03!!*+*/!0+",/5$+/%/
O !(1/%+*/?$((1%*0%+*/?
%/+.#*%/! !$2%+1.?"+.)(
0$+1#$0 %/+. !."%./0*+0! 5
0$!.!#%2!.P* 0$!0%)!+"
%*%0%0%+*+"0.!0)!*0"0!.
/!% !*0%"%0%+*J
I%)!+"+*/!0+""%./0,/5$+0%
/5),0+)0+0$!"%./0
$+/,%0(%/0%+*J
I$!,!.%+ ".+)0$!+*/!0+"
"%./0,/5$+0%/5),0+)/1*0%(
0$!!#%**%*#+"0$!"%./0*0%D
,/5$+0%0.!0)!*0BJ
/!+"
B
I$!0%)!!03!!*+*/!0+"
"%./0,+/%0%2!/5),0+)/OP
* %* !4 )%//%+*JB
%)!".+)+*/!0+"/5),0+)/
O,+/%0%2!* M+.*!#0%2!P0+
/01 5%*(1/%+*B
g[)+*0$A[_Bcd
h`)+*0$/A,,.+4B
_Zd
!*Ab^B\3!!'/
O[]cP
! %*A?E3!!'/
*#!A[DabZ
!*A[_B[3!!'/
O\ZB^P
! %*AE3!!'/
g\5!./A`O[\dP
\D_5!./A[]O\adP
`D[_5!./A[\O\^dP
h[_5!./A[bO]adP
!*AbB`)+*0$/
O,,.+4B]a3!!'/P
! %*A`)+*0$/
O,,.+4B?C3!!'/P
!*A\a` 5/
O,,.+4B^\3!!'/P
*#!AZD[ZZ\ 5/
!*A\c3!!'/O
^\B[P
! %*AE3!!'/
!*A[\Ba)+*0$/
O,,.+4B_^3!!'/P
OaB]P
! %*A[[)+*0$/
O,,.+4BAD3!!'/P
g`)+*0$/A[cBbd
`D[[)+*0$/A]]Bad
[D\5!./A]cB`dg\
5!./A`Bcd
7
62% of patients had received previous antipsychotic treatment, with a mean duration of 34.3 days/median 17
days.
143
O!*00%(!0
(B?\Z[ZP
%*(* fbc
$!,!.%+ !03!!*0$!+*/!0
+""%./0,/5$+0%/5),0+)/
* 0$!+))!*!)!*0+"
0.!0)!*0
!*A\\_ 5/
O,,.+4B]\3!!'/P
O]\cP
! %*A[\[ 5/
O,,.+4B>D/#+<
144
10.3 Letter by Dr. Amos to the editor of the American
Journal of Psychiatry and response by TIPS group
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
develops enhanced colonic inflammatory responses in adulthood (3). This would set the stage so that when the perinatally
BPA-exposed female rat becomes pregnant, the pregnancy
may be marked by enhanced inflammation. Paradoxically,
estrogenic exposure may have anti-inflammatory effects in the
exposed adult, but inappropriate estrogen exposure may have
pro-inflammatory effects in the perinatally exposed offspring.
These effects were observed at levels of BPA exposure previously believed to be too low for observed adverse effects in
humans (3).
I have proposed elsewhere an estrogenic endocrine disruption theory of schizophrenia, in which inappropriate
dosage, timing, or duration of prenatal estrogen exposure
causes schizophrenia (4, 5). Within this theoretical framework, inappropriate estrogen exposure occurring in the brain
could also be occurring in the colon so that an association
of celiac disease or some other inflammation and schizophrenia may be observable not from a genetic link per se
but rather a transgenerational effect of prenatal estrogen
exposure.
References
1. Karlsson H, Blomström A, Wicks S, Yang S, Yolken RH, Dalman C:
Maternal antibodies to dietary antigens and risk for nonaffective
psychosis in offspring. Am J Psychiatry 2012; 169:625–632
2. Rubio-Tapia A, Murray JA: Celiac disease. Curr Opin Gastroenterol
2010; 26:116–122
3. Braniste V, Jouault A, Gaultier E, Polizzi A, Buisson-Brenac C,
Leveque M, Martin PG, Theodorou V, Fioramonti J, Houdeau E:
Impact of oral bisphenol A at reference doses on intestinal barrier function and sex differences after perinatal exposure in rats.
Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2010; 107:448–453
4. Brown JS Jr: Association of increased prenatal estrogen with risk
factors for schizophrenia. Schizophr Bull 2011; 37:946–949
5. Brown JS Jr: Effects of bisphenol-A and other endocrine disruptors compared with abnormalities of schizophrenia: an
endocrine-disruption theory of schizophrenia. Schizophr Bull
2009; 35:256–278
JAMES S. BROWN, JR., M.D., M.P.H.
Richmond, Va.
The author reports no financial relationships with commercial interests.
This letter (doi: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2012.12060735) was accepted
for publication in June 2012.
Alternative Interpretation for the Early
Detection of Psychosis Study
To the Editor: In the April issue, the Treatment and Intervention in Psychosis (TIPS) early-detection study reports
10-year results in a manner that overstates the impact of
reducing the duration of untreated psychosis (1). The authors
dismissed a 50% increase in hospitalization in the treatment
group after 5 years as the result of regional policy differences. They did not describe the policy differences or analyze
the effects of this impressive confound on the small difference
in symptoms, instead claiming to have demonstrated “positive
effects on clinical and functional status” (2, 3). They omit
hospitalization results altogether at 10 years, despite this being
by far the most impressive result at 5 years (1).
992
ajp.psychiatryonline.org
Perhaps because at 5 years the researchers reported a
nonsignificant advantage in remission for the control group
(2), at 10 years they introduce a new recovery metric, based
largely on work function, which showed a significant advantage for the treatment group (1). Although they acknowledge
a significant attrition bias by 10 years, they do not report that
at 5 years there was no difference in work function, or suggest
how reducing the duration of untreated psychosis at baseline would not improve work function at 5 years but double
work function at 10 years.
The authors reported that the control group achieved
independent living significantly more often at the 10-year
mark, but dismiss this evidence of worse function in the
treatment group, suggesting that independent living is not
evidence of recovery because it is not included in the new
metric. They do not analyze the possibility that failure to
achieve independent living is evidence of poor function (1).
References
1. Hegelstad WTV, Larsen TK, Auestad B, Evensen J, Haahr U, Joa I,
Johannesen JO, Langeveld J, Melle I, Opjordsmoen S, Rossberg JI,
Rund BR, Simonsen E, Sundet K, Vaglum P, Friis S, McGlashan T:
Long-term follow-up of the TIPS early detection in psychosis study:
effects on 10-year outcome. Am J Psychiatry 2012; 169:374–380
2. Larsen TK, Melle I, Auestad B, Haahr U, Joa I, Johannessen JO,
Opjordsmoen S, Rund BR, Rossberg JI, Simonsen E, Vaglum P, Friis
S, McGlashan TH: Early detection of psychosis: positive effects on
5-year outcome. Psychol Med 2011; 41:1461–1469
3. Amos A: Early detection of psychosis: positive effects on 5-year
outcome? (letter). Psychol Med 2012; 42:669–670
ANDREW AMOS, B.ARTS (HONS), M.B.B.S.
Brisbane, Australia
The author reports no financial relationships with commercial interests.
This letter (doi: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2012.12050578) was accepted
for publication in June 2012.
Response to Amos Letter
To the Editor: Dr. Amos raises several points of criticism
regarding the TIPS study and our interpretation of the data, as
he did previously (1) in response to abstracts from our group.
We thank the Journal for the opportunity to respond.
First, Dr. Amos points out that patients from the health
care area practicing early detection had significantly higher
rates of hospitalization at the 5-year follow-up, and he is
critical of the fact that we did not thoroughly investigate this
possible confounder. This is a valid concern; however, he
seems to miss the point that it is the group of patients not in
symptom remission (a prerequisite of recovery) who received
more inpatient care in the early-detection area. For recovered
patients, there was no difference between early and usual
detection. Knowing that more hospital time did not lead to
better recovery, hospitalization cannot be a confounder.
Second, Dr. Amos questions the finding that while there
apparently were no differences in work function at the 5-year
follow-up, the early-detection patients had double the chance
of full-time employment at 10 years. He goes on to imply that
we might have chosen a new measure of “recovery” out of
convenience, having made sure that this measure would yield
us more favorable results. At 5 years, we used “working at least
Am J Psychiatry 169:9, September 2012
145
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
20 hours per week” as the employment outcome (2). At the
10-year follow-up, using a new measure of recovery chosen
before data collection and on the basis of recent developments in the field, we looked only at full-time employment.
This is a stricter measure and was significantly higher for
early detection patients. However, nonrecovered patients had
poor working capacity both in early and usual-detection
areas, both at 5 and 10 years.
Third, Dr. Amos addresses the finding that more patients
from the usual-detection area were living independently.
However, living independently is a necessary but not sufficient element in recovery. In fact, as reported in our 10-year
follow-up in the April issue, only 17.9% of the patients living
independently in the usual-detection area were fully recovered with both symptom remission and full-time employment,
compared with 48.4% for early-detection patients. This seems
to indicate that living independently does not automatically
imply better health and function.
All in all, as we have noted elsewhere (3), we agree that
early detection cannot and should not be presented as a
“cure for all.” Nevertheless, our data show that early detection does seem to have long-standing positive associations
with outcome measures for a large group of patients, and it
improves the chances of recovery. However, for a considerable group of patients, we were not able to demonstrate a longterm effect.
References
1. Amos AJ: Selective bias in early detection for psychosis. Aust N Z J
Psychiatry (in press)
2. Larsen TK, Melle I, Auestad B, Haahr U, Joa I, Johannessen JO,
Opjordsmoen S, Rund BR, Rossberg JI, Simonsen E, Vaglum P,
Friis S, McGlashan T: Early detection of psychosis: positive effects
on 5-year outcome. Psychol Med 2011; 41:1461–1469
3. Friis S, Barder H, Evensen J, Haahr U, Hegelstad WtV, Joa I,
Johannessen JO, Langeveld J, Larsen TK, Melle I, Opjordsmoen S,
Rund BR, Røssberg JI, Simonsen E, Sundet K, Vaglum P, McGlashan T: The TIPS study and bias: replies to Dr. Amos. Aust N Z J
Psychiatry (in press)
WENCHE TEN VELDEN HEGELSTAD, M.SC.
TOR K. LARSEN, M.D. PH.D.
JAN O. JOHANNESEN, M.D. PH.D.
Stavanger, Norway
INGRID MELLE, M.D. PH.D.
Oslo, Norway
ERIK SIMONSEN, M.D. PH.D.
Roskilde, Denmark
SVEIN FRIIS, M.D. PH.D.
Oslo, Norway
THOMAS MCGLASHAN, M.D.
New Haven, Conn.
The authors’ disclosures accompany the original article.
This reply (doi: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2012.12050578r) was accepted for publication in June 2012.
Bilateral Pallidal Necrosis and Cardiac Toxicity
in a Patient With Venlafaxine and Bupropion
Overdose
To the Editor: The new generation of antidepressants is
generally thought to be safer than traditional antidepressants.
Am J Psychiatry 169:9, September 2012
Although combining antidepressants is recommended for
the treatment of refractory depression, the toxicity of drug
overdose from more than one antidepressant is seldom
addressed.
Case Report
A 30-year-old woman was sent to the emergency department 1 hour after ingesting venlafaxine and bupropion
in a suicide attempt. The exact dose was uncertain, but
according to the metabolites of venlafaxine, bupropion,
and benzodiazepine found in her urine, it is probable that
she consumed a 1-month prescription of 150 mg venlafaxine,
300 mg bupropion, and 3 mg lorazepam that was prescribed
3 days earlier.
She had clear consciousness initially, but generalized
myoclonus soon occurred. A fever (40.6°C) and tachycardia (100–170 bpm) developed with normal blood pressure (122/91 mmHg), respiratory rate (16/min), and O 2
saturation (SpO 2 =95%). An ECG demonstrated prolonged
QRS complex with a deep, slurred S wave on lead I and
an R wave on lead aVR. Sodium bicarbonate was then
administrated.
One hour later, the patient became drowsy and confused
and she suffered respiratory distress. Her blood pressure
decreased (94/36 mmHg), tachycardia increased (200 bpm),
and SpO2 decreased (49%). Endotracheal intubation was
performed within 5 minutes, and her SpO 2 and blood
pressure returned to normal. After sodium bicarbonate
treatment, the patient recovered from the changes seen
on the ECG. However, leukocytosis (10.27×109 /L), elevated
creatine kinase (520 U/L) and creatinin (1.5 mg/dL) levels,
and changes in vital signs suggested serotonin syndrome.
Cyprohepadine was provided with supportive treatment;
intravenous lorazepam was also given continuously for
agitated behavior. Fever and disturbed consciousness
ameliorated within 2 days, but creatine kinase and alanine
transaminase levels continued to increase, peaking at
107,895 U/L and 2,453 U/L around 43 and 102 hours,
respectively, after overdose. The patient was extubated 7
days later.
One week after extubation, purposeful involuntary movement and akathisia were noted after discontinuing lorazepam. Suspecting benzodiazepine withdrawal, lorazepam
was resumed with pramipexole, 0.75mg/day, until the
akathisia subsided 2 weeks later. The choreoathetosis
remained, with frontal releasing signs (i.e., Luria test,
glabellar reflex) and impaired recent memory, language,
and executive function. An MRI scan revealed bilateral
pallidal necrosis 7 weeks after admission (Figure 1 and
Figure 2).
Discussion
A limited number of reports of antidepressant overdoserelated bilateral pallidal necrosis have been published. Szólics
et al. (1) reported similar pallidal necrosis with multiple
functional changes and extrapyramidal symptoms after fluoxetine overdose, implying a complex relationship between
serotonin and the nigrastriatal dopaminergic system. The
bilateral pallidal necrosis in our patient could have been
caused by transient hypoxia, but the toxicity of venlafaxine
and/or bupropion could not be excluded. It is therefore
worth being cautious when prescribing venlafaxine concomitantly with bupropion for patients at high risk of deliberate
ajp.psychiatryonline.org
993
146
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz