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SEISMICHAZARDANALYSISFOR
MYANMAR
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ImpactFactor:0.41·DOI:10.1142/S1793431113500292
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Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami
Vol. 7, No. 4 (2013) 1350029 (14 pages)
c World Scientific Publishing Company
DOI: 10.1142/S1793431113500292
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR MYANMAR
NANTHAPORN SOMSA-ARD and SANTI PAILOPLEE∗
Earthquake and Tectonic Geology Research Unit (EATGRU )
Department of Geology, Faculty of Science
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
∗[email protected]
Received 28 July 2012
Revised 14 December 2012
Accepted 29 April 2013
Published 20 June 2013
In this study, the seismic hazards of Myanmar are analyzed based on both deterministic and probabilistic scenarios. The area of the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone
is newly defined and the lines of faults proposed previously are grouped into nine
earthquake sources that might affect the Myanmar region. The earthquake parameters
required for the seismic hazard analysis (SHA) were determined from seismicity data
including paleoseismological information. Using previously determined suitable attenuation models, SHA maps were developed. For the deterministic SHA, the earthquake
hazard in Myanmar varies between 0.1 g in the Eastern part up to 0.45 g along the
Western part (Arakan Yoma Thrust Range). Moreover, probabilistic SHA revealed that
for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 and 100 years, the levels of ground shaking
along the remote area of the Arakan Yoma Thrust Range are 0.35 and 0.45 g, respectively. Meanwhile, the main cities of Myanmar located nearby the Sagaing Fault Zone,
such as Mandalay, Yangon, and Naypyidaw, may be subjected to peak horizontal ground
acceleration levels of around 0.25 g.
Keywords: Earthquake; seismic hazard analysis; deterministic; probabilistic; Myanmar.
1. Introduction
Tectonically, Myanmar is situated within one of the seismically active zones in
Mainland Southeast Asia. The recent to present-day activity of the Indian–Eurasian
Plate Collision has left clear tectonic evidence and seismic activities are still prominent [Kundu and Gahalaut, 2012]. For the last 100 years (1912-present), at least
20 major earthquakes in Myanmar or nearby have been reported (Fig. 1(a)), with
the highest magnitude (Mw 8.6) recorded at the Indian–Myanmar border in 1950,
and then at Mw 8.0 (1912) at Mandalay and at Mw 7.6 (1931) close to Myitkyina
[Brown, 1914; Brown and Leicester, 1933]. Thus, quantitative seismic hazard analysis (SHA) is really needed for Myanmar in order to provide an effective mitigation
plan for upcoming earthquakes.
∗Corresponding
author.
1350029-1
(a)
(b)
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Fig. 1. (Color online) (a) Map of Myanmar and the neighboring area showing the earthquake fault lines [Bender, 1983; Pailoplee et al., 2009] in
gray and major earthquakes (red dots) reported during the last 100 years (1912-present). (b) Seismic source zones in Myanmar and the nearby area
showing the distribution of main shock earthquakes (blue dots) with a Mw > 4 after the earthquake de-clustering process [Gardner and Knopoff,
1974]. The numbers in this figure are equivalent to the numbers in the column “zone” in Table 1.
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Based on literature reviews, some researchers have attempted to examine the
seismic hazard situation in the Myanmar region. Zhang et al. [1999], in the Global
Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in Continental Asia, proposed a
SHA map for Asia including the high hazard region of Myanmar. However, this
approximate investigation was mainly based on the assumptions, models and SHA’s
resolution from a global scale. After the Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Mw-9.0) in
2004, Martin [2005] and Petersen et al. [2007] modified the SHA maps for Mainland
Southeast Asia. Although the Myanmar area is excluded in this SHA, the maps of
Thailand showed SHA results in some parts of Myanmar. The most up-to-date SHA
established specifically for Myanmar is that of Htwe and Wenbin [2010]. However,
they proposed the SHA maps only for Yangon, and not for the country as a whole.
This study, therefore, aims to contribute directly the SHA maps for the whole
country of Myanmar based on the most up-to-date data and suitable models with
the world-wide accepted SHA methodology [Kramer, 1996].
2. Seismotectonic
Due to the continued Northward subduction of the Indian Plate underneath the
Burma Platelet (which is the Western part of the Eurasian Plate) and the Northward movement of the Burma Platelet from a spreading center in the Andaman sea
[Bertrand and Rangin, 2003; Curray, 2005], earthquakes in Myanmar have resulted
from three major seismotectonic regimes as follows;
(i) Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone to the West of the Myanmar coast. In
detailed classification, three separate portions of seismotectonic setting can be
distinguished (see also Fig. 1(b) and Table 1), as follows. (a) The Sumatra–
Andaman Inter Plate where shallow-focus earthquakes are normally generated
along the trench, (b) the Sumatra–Andaman Intra Slab that is bounded by the
occurrence of intermediate to deep-focus earthquakes underneath the Western
fold belt of Myanmar [Paul et al., 2001], and (c) the portion of the Western
fold belt that we call the “Arakan Yoma Thrust Range” [Curray, 2005] where
compressive tectonic activity, that is, reverse faulting, usually causes shallowfocus earthquakes.
(ii) Major active strike-slip fault along the Central lowlands of Myanmar. Beside
the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone, Myanmar has a great strike-slip
active fault zone called the “Sagaing Fault Zone” [Bertrand and Rangin, 2003;
Htwe and Wenbin, 2009]. This 1,200 km-long fault trends roughly North–South
and moves right-laterally with a velocity of 23 mm/yr [Bertrand and Rangin,
2003]. As a result, Myanmar is subjected to major earthquakes from this fault
(Fig. 1(a)).
(iii) Regional shear zone in the highlands of Eastern Myanmar. This seismotectonic
regime is continuous with the earthquake zones in Southern China, North–
Western Laos and the Northern and Western part of Thailand (Fig. 1(b)).
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Sumatra–Andaman Inter Plate
Sumatra–Andaman Intra Slab
Arakan Yoma Thrust Range
Sagaing Fault Zone
Hsenwi–Nanting Fault Zone
Western Thailand
Jinghong–Mengxing Fault Zone
Northern Thailand–Dein Bein Fhu
Red River Fault Zone
—
—
340
944
359
259
174
177
407
SRL
9.0
9.0
8.0
8.5
8.0
7.9
7.7
7.7
8.1
Mmax
Af
93972
93972
6391
18754
6760
4781
3151
3208
7715
S
47
47
25
23
1
2
4.8
2
4
197
153
377
203
187
129
250
146
201
Events
5.50
4.06
4.21
3.44
3.10
3.29
2.62
3.65
3.23
a
1.07
0.77
0.77
0.66
0.65
0.71
0.52
0.76
0.74
b
Seismicity data
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
Mmin
Reference for S
Paul et al. [2001]
Paul et al. [2001]
Curray [2005]
Bertrand and Rangin [2003]
Lacassin et al. [1998]
Fenton et al. [2003]
Lacassin et al. [1998]
Zuchiewicz et al. [2004]
Duong and Feigl [1999]
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Note: SRL is the surface rupture length (km), Mmax is maximum earthquake magnitude, Af is rupture area (km2 ), S is slip rate (mm/yr). The
values a and b are constants representing entire seismicity rate and seismicity potential, respectively, in the Gutenberg–Richter relationship.
Mmin is the considered minimum magnitude.
Earthquake source
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Paleoseismological data
Summary of the earthquake potential parameters of the nine earthquake sources for the country of Myanmar.
Zone
Table 1.
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Pailoplee et al. [2009] proposed a large number of possible active fault zones
in this area. For instance, the Hsenwi–Nanting Fault Zone in the Eastern
Myanmar–Southern China border area [Lacassin et al., 1998], the zone of
right-lateral strike-slip faults in Western Thailand which spread out from the
Sagaing Fault System [Fenton et al., 2003], and the Dein Bein Fhu Fault Zone
[Zuchiewicz et al., 2004] that includes the Red River Fault Zone [Duong and
Feigl, 1999] in Vietnam.
Based on tectonic environments, regional geomorphology, and the orientation of
earthquake fault lines, including the epicentral distribution of earthquakes, Pailoplee and Choowong [2012] demarcated 13 seismic source zones for investigating the
characteristics of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia. Nine of these
13 zones were defined as being earthquake sources that might affect the Myanmar
region. These selected sources are centered inside and around Myanmar with a
radius of about 300 km, in accord with that suggested by Gupta [2002] for an effective SHA study. The boundary of each individual zone is illustrated in Fig. 1(b)
and described in detail in Table 1.
3. Seismicity
Based on the survey data, the international catalogues that have captured earthquake events in and around Myanmar during 1967–2012 are the Incorporated
Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), the U.S. Geological survey (USGS),
and the global Centroid-Moment-Tensor catalogue (CMT). These various catalogues have both advantages and disadvantages in terms of the continuity and time
span of their records. Hence, we prepared a new composite earthquake catalogue for
this SHA according to the procedure suggested by Caceres and Kulhanek [2000]. All
obtained earthquake catalogues (i.e. IRIS, USGS, and CMT), including the reported
major earthquakes mentioned in Fig. 1(a) were merged. The merged catalogue was
then checked for duplicate entries and, where they existed, one representative earthquake event was retained.
3.1. Earthquake magnitude conversion
The new merged catalogue contained a variety of earthquake magnitude scales:
body wave magnitude (Mb ), surface wave magnitude (Ms ) and moment magnitude
(Mw ), which were derived by a specific analytical method. For the SHA performed
here, the Mw value was used because it directly represents the physical properties
of an earthquake source [Ottemoller and Havskov, 2003]. Since the CMT catalogue provides Mb , Ms , and Mw magnitudes for individual earthquake events, we,
therefore, contribute the relationship of Ms to Mw and Mb to Mw (Fig. 2) which
formulated in Eqs. (1) and (2). Thereafter, all earthquakes reported in Mb or Ms
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(a)
Fig. 2.
(b)
Empirical relationships between (a) Ms − Mw , and (b) Mb − Mw .
are converted to Mw according to these proposed equations.
Mw = 0.1749Ms2 − 1.3396Ms + 7.6876,
(1)
Mw = 0.2674Mb2 − 1.8983Mb + 7.9123.
(2)
3.2. Earthquake de-clustering
For the SHA, earthquake records require de-clustering by filtering the main shocks
from the foreshocks and aftershocks [Kramer, 1996]. We applied the model of
Gardner and Knopoff [1974] to de-cluster the earthquake events. By using the
ZMAP software package [Wiemer, 2001], we distinguished 1463 clusters from 27,355
earthquake events. Of these events, a total of 24,386 events (89%) are classified as
foreshocks or aftershocks and were, therefore, eliminated. This derived main-shock
catalogue (Fig. 1(b)) was then used to evaluate the earthquake parameters needed
for the SHA as described in Sec. 3.3.
3.3. Earthquake parameters
The earthquake parameters considered for each seismic source zone are the expected
maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax ), considered minimum earthquake magnitude (Mmin ), rupture area (Af ) and the slip rate (S), including the earthquake
activity which are represented by values a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter (G–R)
relationship [Gutenberg and Richter, 1944].
Mmax is the most important parameter because the highest magnitude
contributes the most to the analysis. To determine Mmax , the relationship between
Mw and the surface rupture length of the fault (SRL) proposed by Wells and
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Coppersmith [1994] was demonstrated. The SRL used for the Mmax calculation
was taken from the length of the longest fault segment in each fault zone (Table 1).
Moreover, the Af value was also determined using the relationship of the obtained
Mw and Af [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. For Mmin, it was taken as 4.0 for all
earthquake source zones. Below this lower threshold magnitude it is assumed that
there is no significant earthquake hazard on engineering structures [Kramer, 1996].
1. Sumatra–Andaman Inter Plate
2. Sumatra–Andaman Intra Slab
3. Arakan Yoma Thrust Range
4. Sagaing Fault Zone
5. Hsenwi–Nanting Fault Zone
6. Western Thailand
7. Jinghong–Mengxing Fault Zone
8. Northern Thailand–Dein Bein
Fhu
9. Red River Fault Zone
Fig. 3. G–R relationships of the nine seismic source zones recognized in this SHA. Triangles
indicate the number of earthquakes of each magnitude; squares represent the cumulative number
of earthquakes equal to or larger than each magnitude. Solid lines are the lines of best fit according
to Woessner and Wiemer [2005]. Mc is defined as the magnitude above which all earthquakes are
considered to be fully reported.
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In addition, the S value of individual fault zones were cited in previous publications mentioned in Table 1. The earthquake activities are quantified using the G–R
relationship, shown in Eq. (3).
log(n(M )) = a − bM,
(3)
where n(M ) is the annual frequency of earthquakes with magnitude M or larger,
and a and b are constants that represent the entire seismicity rate and seismicity
potential, respectively.
This relationship is a key element in estimating the probability that an earthquake with magnitude M or larger will occur within a specific time interval. Thus,
the obtained main-shock events were captured by the boundary of individual earthquake source. The number of earthquake events from each source were shown in
Table 1. Thereafter, the number of events with a magnitude equal to or larger than
M , denoted by n(M ), is plotted (Fig. 3). The optimal values of a and b to yield
the G–R relationship are evaluated according to Woessner and Wiemer [2005]. All
earthquake parameters representing the earthquake potential of each earthquake
source, finally, are summarized in Table 1.
4. Attenuation Models
As well as clarification of the earthquake source, strong ground-motion attenuation
models are also essential for SHA. In this study, we classified the nine earthquake
sources into two categories on the basis of seismotectonic setting; the subductionrelated earthquake zones for the Sumatra–Andaman region (zones 1 and 2 in
Table 1), and the shallow crustal earthquake zones (inland active fault zone) (zones
3–9 in Table 1).
For the subduction-related earthquakes, Chintanapakdee et al. [2008] compared 55 strong ground-motion data with some candidate attenuation models and
concluded that the model of Crouse [1991], shown in Eq. (4), was the most suitable
relationship for the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone.
ln yCrouse (M, R) = p1 + p2 M + p4 ln(R + p5 e(p6 M) ) + p7 h,
(4)
where y is the peak horizontal ground acceleration or PGA (cm/s2 ), M is the
moment magnitude (Mw ), R is the source-to-site distance (km), p1 = 6.36, p2 =
1.76, p4 = −2.73, p5 = 1.58, p6 = 0.608, p7 = 0.00916, the focal depth, h, varies
between 0 and 238 km, and the standard deviation (σ) = 0.773.
For the earthquakes generated by inland active faults, Htwe and Wenbin [2010]
analyzed the SHA for Yangon (Central Myanmar) according to the attenuation
relationship of Boore et al. [1997], which is represented by
ln yBoore (M, R) = b1 + b2 (M − 6) + b3 (M − 6)2 + b4 R
+ b5 log(R) + b6 Gb + b7 Gc ,
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(5)
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where y, M , and R are as defined in Eq. (4), for a randomly-oriented horizontal
component (or geometrical mean) b1 = 0.105, b2 = 0.229, b3 = 0, b4 = 0, b5 =
−0.778, b6 = 0.162, b7 = 0.251, GB = 1, GC = 0, and σ = 0.23.
Consequently for this SHA, we selected the strong ground-motion attenuation
model of Boore et al. [1997] for shallow crustal earthquakes and the model of Crouse
[1991] for the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone.
5. Seismic Hazard Analysis
For the SHA, the MATLAB-based software that employs an algorithm to calculate
the PGA (in g unit) was used assuming the rock site condition. A real sources of
subduction zones 1 and 2 and earthquake fault lines delineated in zones 3–9 (Fig. 1)
were converted systematically to 0.05◦ × 0.05◦ points. All parameters needed to
define the potential of each earthquake source were added in, including the suitable
attenuation models. The SHA was calculated for 0.2◦ × 0.2◦ grid cells covering
the whole country of Myanmar. Both deterministic SHA (DSHA) and probabilistic
SHA (PSHA) were employed.
For the DSHA [Krinitzsky, 2003], the Mmax determined for each earthquake
source was assumed to be generated within the source at the shortest distance
from source to site. Using this worst-case scenario, the attenuation relationships of
ground shaking were applied to estimate the PGA, and the obtained PGA values
were then contoured to construct the DSHA map, as shown in Fig. 4.
This DSHA map illustrates that Myanmar has a chance of ground shaking up
to the 0.45 g level, particularly for the Western part along the Arakan Yoma Thrust
Range. Meanwhile, in Central and Eastern Myanmar, DSHA indicates a possible
ground shaking between 0.25–0.35 g at the area nearby the faults and 0.1–0.2 g for
the other regions.
In contrast to the DSHA, the PSHA [Cornell, 1968] considers the likelihood of an
earthquake (i.e. both magnitudes and locations) and the uncertainty of ground shaking attenuation. The probability density functions of magnitudes are demonstrated
according to the characteristic earthquake model [Youngs and Coppersmith, 1985]
recognizing the paleoseismological data (i.e. Mmax , Af and S). The magnitudes
of interest were subdivided equally into 10 case studies between Mmax and Mmin
(Fig. 5(a)). Meanwhile, the source-to-site distances were subdivided equally into 50
portions ranging from the shortest to the longest possible distances (Fig. 5(b)). In
addition, using the selected attenuation models, the hazard curves, plotted as the
PGA (X-axis) against the probability of exceedance (POE) (Y-axis) were evaluated
for each SHA grid cell (Fig. 5(c)).
For instance from Fig. 5(c), the hazard curves indicate that Hakha city, situated
near the West coast of Myanmar, is located in the most earthquake-prone area.
Ground shaking equal to or larger than 0.16 g occurs around 0.001 times per year
(once every 1000 years). The hazard level decreases for the cities of Myitkyina,
Naypyidaw, Sittwe, Mandalay, Bago, Yangon, Taunggyi, and Dawei.
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Fig. 4.
(Color online) DSHA map of Myanmar showing the distribution of PGA values.
PSHA can be presented in maps that depict the PGA with a fixed POE (%)
in a finite-time period of interest [Kramer, 1996]. In the PSHA of this study for
Myanmar, four maps with a different POEs (2 and 10%) and time periods (50
and 100 years) were created (Fig. 6). The highest hazard levels were observed in
the Western part of Myanmar, the same as that predicted by the DSHA. In this
area, the maximum PGA values for a 2% POE are between 0.35 and 0.45 g for time
periods of 50 and 100 years, respectively, whereas in Central and Eastern Myanmar,
the SHA levels ranged from 0.05 to 0.25 g.
With respect to a 10% POE, the relative distribution of hazard levels are similar
to those at a 2% POE, but the PGA values for the 10% POE are approximately
0.5 times larger than that for the 2% POE. The highest ground motion, at around
0.1–0.2 g, was found in the Western part of Myanmar, whereas in some regions in
the Central and Eastern part of Myanmar it drops down to 0–0.05 g (Fig. 6).
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
In this study, both DSHA and PSHA maps were formed for the whole country of
Myanmar. DSHA is strongly recommended for a critical project in a specific area
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Fig. 5. (a) Probability density function of the Sagaing fault zone (zone 4) according to the characteristic earthquake model, (b) the probability distribution of source-to-site distances measured
from Mandalay city to the Sagaing fault zone, and (c) the hazard curves of various cities of
Myanmar calculated in this SHA.
where the protection is needed against this worst-case situation. We also expect that
these PSHA maps will help Myanmar to provide a basis for long-term preparedness
for earthquake hazards and to create an International Building Code for improved
building design and construction.
Based on the obtained SHA results, the most destructive area is the Western
side of Myanmar due to the high earthquake activities of the Sumatra–Andaman
Subduction Zone. However, it may be less vulnerable than the remote area of Arakan
Yoma Thrust Range which is currently sparsely populated.
Although the earthquake hazard in Central and Eastern Myanmar is lower than
the Western part, the PGA of 0.35 g analyzed from the DSHA, or even the PGA
value of 0.25 g derived from the PSHA are enough to impact the important urban
areas of Myanmar, and in particular for the cities that are located close to the
Sagaing Fault Zone such as Mandalay, Bago, Yangon, and Naypyidaw (the capital
city of Myanmar).
Although we believe that the SHA presented here can provide more detailed
and up-to-date results than that previously available, more work is still needed to
refine this analysis. For example, it is important to note that the strong groundmotion attenuation models considered in this study derive the PGA for the rock
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(a) 2% POE in 50 years
(b) 10% POE in 50 years
(c) 2% POE in 100 years
(d) 10% POE in 100 years
Fig. 6. (Color online) PSHA maps of Myanmar showing the distribution of PGA that have a
(a, c) 2% or (b, d) 10% POE over a (a, b) 50 or (c, d) 100-year period.
site condition. In areas covered by thick, soft soils the ground shaking will be much
more severe than that indicated by our maps. Consequently, more observations of
the strong ground-motion in the region are needed and further paleoseismological
research should be encouraged.
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Acknowledgments
This work was jointly sponsored by the Integrated Innovation Academic Center
(IIAC): Chulalongkorn University Centenary Academic Development Project
(CU56-CC04), the Higher Education Promotion and National Research University Project of Thailand, Office of the Higher Education Commission (CC508B-56),
and The Thai Government Stimulus Package 2 (TKK:2555; PERFECTA). Thanks
are also extended to T. Pailoplee for the preparation of the draft manuscript. We
thank the Publication Counseling Unit (PCU), Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn
University, for a critical review and improved English. We acknowledge the thoughtful comments and suggestions by the editor-in-chief and anonymous reviewers that
enhanced the quality of this manuscript significantly.
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