Report on the benefits and drawbacks of cricket’s potential involvement in the Olympic Games Jon Long, June 2013 Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 3 2. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 4 3. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES.................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 ICC Members ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3.2 Other international federations ........................................................................................................... 5 3.3 Multisport organisations and academia .............................................................................................. 6 4. THE BIDDING PROCESS ................................................................................................................................. 7 5. THE BENEFITS OF INCLUSION ....................................................................................................................... 9 6. 7. 5.1 Direct financial benefits ....................................................................................................................... 9 5.2 Indirect benefits ................................................................................................................................... 9 THE CONSEQUENCES OF INCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 15 6.1 The ‘cost’ of participation .................................................................................................................. 15 6.2 Impact on ICC events.......................................................................................................................... 15 6.3 Impact on the FTP and Members ....................................................................................................... 16 6.4 Non-financial challenges .................................................................................................................... 16 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Page 2 of 18 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report has been prepared upon the request of the ICC Board to highlight the benefits and drawbacks of cricket’s potential involvement in the Olympic Games from 2024, primarily from an economic perspective. It makes no recommendations but, after extensive research and consultation, presents an overview of the process cricket would have to follow were it to make a decision to target the Olympic Games and seeks to assess the likely impact of inclusion on the ICC and its Members. The potential benefits of featuring in the Olympic Games from 2024 include: Direct funding of US$15-20 million per event Government and NOC support of several million dollars per year Olympic Solidarity support of US$4-6 million per year Increased income from Associate and Affiliate Member countries for ICC event media rights Increased profile of the women’s game worldwide and general profile of cricket in Associate and Affiliate Member countries In isolation these benefits seem attractive but a decision to pursue inclusion in the Games may also have some significant consequences. In particular, the following factors should not be ignored: Tighter commercial restrictions on team and player sponsorship and endorsement than at ICC events The ‘opportunity cost’ to the ICC, including the likely US$15-20 million distribution compared to US$150m from the ICC World Twenty20 in 2014 The ‘opportunity cost’ to Members, particularly the projected US$160 million impact on the ECB’s finances The challenges of eligibility and qualification The impact on Member autonomy In summary the potential impact of the Olympic Games on cricket is a complex and multifaceted topic that will have far reaching strategic implications for the ICC, its Members and the wider sport. There are economic arguments both for and against inclusion and, ultimately, a decision on whether to pursue this opportunity is likely to be part of the ICC Board’s wider consideration of long term strategies for Twenty20 cricket and the growth of the international game. Page 3 of 18 2. INTRODUCTION This report has been prepared on the basis of a scope agreed by the ICC Board in 2012 and is in keeping with one of the key initiatives of the ICC Strategic Plan 2011-15 which sets out the need for an evaluation of the benefits and drawbacks of cricket’s potential inclusion in the programme of the Olympic Games. Cricket is one of 33 sports that is recognised by the IOC but not part of the programme of the Summer or Winter Olympic Games, making it eligible to apply for inclusion in the former event. The next available opportunity for it to do so would be in 2024. The IOC will make a decision on the sports that will be included in the 2024 Olympic Games in 2017, following on from an evaluation period that will commence in 2015. Whilst there can be no guarantee that cricket would be admitted to the Olympics should it forward its candidature from 2015, the IOC administration has expressed an interest in the sport and has encouraged the ICC to submit an application for a Twenty20 event incorporating up to 12 men’s and women’s teams. In keeping with the scope agreed by the Board, the proposition of cricket featuring in the Olympic Games from 2024 has been considered on the basis that it would be a 12 team men’s event and 8-12 team women’s event. It is a proposition that has proved highly popular with the majority of Associate and Affiliate Members yet it also creates significant problems for prominent Full Members. Other approaches – for example different format such as Sixes or Beach Cricket or a focus on lobbying for the inclusion of new sports on the programme of the Youth Olympic Games - could potentially mitigate some of these Full Member concerns but these are longer-term options and beyond the scope of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to present the facts in relation to the potential Olympic inclusion of Twenty20 cricket from 2024 in a neutral, practical and digestible manner that is devoid of recommendations but hopefully provides support to those charged with making a decision on this important strategic issue. As per the scope agreed by the Board the report places more emphasis on economic that developmental factors. Page 4 of 18 3. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES A wide variety of sources were consulted over the course of the compilation of this report. These included: ICC Members Other international federations Multisport organisations 3.1 ICC Members A survey was distributed to all Associate and Affiliate Members to determine the current levels of support received from governments and National Olympic Committees and the ways in which this may change if cricket became part of the Olympic Programme. As a control in determining the accuracy of this information, Members were also asked to identify the current levels of funding for two other sports on the programme of the Summer Olympic Games – basketball and hockey. These sports were chosen as they are both team sports. Like cricket, basketball has legitimate claims to being the world’s second most popular sport and has a commercially strong competition programme outside the Olympic Games while hockey – despite having a growing commercial profile – is more dependent on the Olympics for its revenues and profile. A survey of this nature was deemed to be of less relevance to the Full Members given a combination of the following issues: non-alignment of cricket and Olympic boundaries (e.g. West Indies) strategic decisions to operate independently of government (e.g India); and state funding of cricket infrastructure (e.g. Bangladesh). Instead a letter was sent to all Full Members in April 2013 requesting details of any issues that specific Members wanted to raise in the report. In addition, the topic of cricket and the Olympic Games has been discussed on a regular basis over recent years at both the Associates Meeting and the Development Committee. It has also been an agenda item on the Chief Executives’ Committee and the ICC Executive Board. The papers and minutes relating to these meetings have been reviewed as part of the information gathering process. 3.2 Other international federations The two most recent sports to be accepted onto the programme of the Olympic Games were rugby and golf, both of which will feature for the first time in 2016. The impact of this change has been discussed at length with senior representatives of both the IRB (rugby) and IGF (golf). Page 5 of 18 Prior to these two sports being accepted onto the Olympic programme, the previous new sports to join the programme were Triathlon (from 2000) and Taekwondo (also from 2000 although it did also feature as a ‘demonstration sport’ in 1988 and 1992). The opinions of both of the International Triathlon Union and the World Taekwondo Federation on the impact of being involved in the Olympic Games have been sought. 3.3 Multisport organisations and academia The ICC is an IOC-recognised international federation and, therefore, a member of the Association of IOCrecognised International Sports Federations (ARISF). Over the years, close relationships have been forged with the President and Secretary General of ARISF and the Sport Department of the IOC. These two sources have provided background on the process of seeking to join the Olympic programme, the conditions that would be attached to participation and the sporting and financial models that currently apply. Additional assistance in this area has also been provided by the Secretariat of the Association of Summer Olympic International Federations (ASOIF). One of the functions of this body is to determine the distribution of Olympic revenues to International Federations. While the ICC is not a member of ASOIF it has been provided with information related to current and projected distributions. Academic study of the Olympic Movement is curated by the Olympic Studies Centre (OSC) in Lausanne. To date there has been no academic analysis of the impact that Olympic participation would have on the sport of cricket. Indeed, while there are many studies of the impact that the Olympic Games has had on host cities, no prominent studies have been identified by the OSC relating to the impact that being part of the Olympic Games has had on a specific sport. Page 6 of 18 4. THE BIDDING PROCESS Even if the ICC decided tomorrow that it wanted to be on the programme of the Olympic Games, there would be no guarantee of success. The final decision on the composition of the programme of the 2024 Olympic Games will be taken by the IOC Members in 2017. This group of 100 individuals comprises current and former heads of international federations, NOC officials, former athletes and other prominent officials from the world of sport. They will be likely to vote based on a shortlist provided by the 15 person IOC Executive Board which will be headed by a new President by 2017. At the time of writing, three of the IOC Executive Board members are from countries that could be said to have a strong cricket ‘culture’. This report was written before the final decision on the composition of the 2020 Olympic Programme was taken. At the time of writing there are three sports vying for one place alongside the 27 confirmed sports. These comprise two sports that do not currently feature on the programme – baseball/softball1 and squash – and one sport that is threatened with losing its place on the programme, wrestling. The IOC Members may decide to retain wrestling or introduce one of the other sports. It is likely that a similar range of variables will exist in 2017 ahead of the vote for 2024. In the event that the ICC decided that it was interested in bidding, it would need to submit its candidature by 2015. There are extensive application criteria, most of which the ICC currently satisfies and, based on the experiences of other sports, an allocation of US$1-2 million for the bidding process would be a reasonable assumption. Both rugby and golf failed to garner sufficient support for their candidatures at the first time of asking. In rugby’s case it invested more heavily in the bidding process second time around while golf went to greater lengths to ensure the visible support of all of the major golf associations, professional tours and leading players during its second bid. A consist message from the IOC to all potential programme sports has been that there must be strong backing from across all key stakeholder groups within the applicant sport. The last full survey of ICC Members, conducted in 2008, highlighted that almost 90% of respondents supported cricket’s inclusion in the Olympic Games. As well as there being a set of controls on the number of sports on the Olympic Programme, the IOC has also sought to place a cap on the number of athletes. Although there is no barrier to the inclusion of new team 1 Baseball and softball have created a joint federation for the purpose of their Olympic bid which would see the inclusion of men’s baseball and women’s softball. Page 7 of 18 sports2, this obviously has an impact on the number of teams that would be able to participate in an Olympic cricket competition. London 2012 had the following allocations for the major team sports: Sport Football Basketball Hockey Handball Men’s teams 16 12 12 12 Women’s teams 12 12 12 12 This contrasts with the ICC World Twenty20 where the decision has recently been taken to expand the men’s competition to 16 teams and there is the potential to expand this further in the long-term as the competitiveness of the second tier of teams improves. 2 This has been verified with the IOC Sport Department. Page 8 of 18 5. THE BENEFITS OF INCLUSION There are potentially both direct and indirect benefits to being included in the programme of the Olympic Games. While the direct benefits are easier to quantify, it is the indirect ones that would seem to offer greater opportunities if they were to be effectively harnessed. 5.1 Direct financial benefits All international federations that are involved in the programme of the Olympic Games receive a dividend from the IOC after each edition of the Games. The payouts from London 2012 ranged from around US$47 million for athletics to about US$14 million for the lower profile sports. These sums have risen substantially in recent years with the total pool shared between the international federations increasing from US$296 million in 2008 to US$519 million in 2012. The amounts to be paid out to the new sports in 2016 – rugby and golf – will only be determined once the Games have been completed but it is anticipated that they will sit towards the lower end of this range.3 Based on this, cricket could project to receive somewhere between US$15-20 million were it to feature in the 2024 Olympic Games, depending on the success of the event. 5.2 Indirect benefits The indirect benefits of inclusion on the programme are potentially much more significant than the direct benefts but are far harder to quantify, particularly in economic terms. 5.2.1 Government and NOC support The ICC became provisionally recognised by the IOC in 2007 and obtained full recognition in 2010. In the eyes of the IOC, national governments and National Olympic Committees (NOCs) are entitled to provide as much support to recognised sports that are not on the programme of the Olympic Games as they do to the sports that are on the programme. In the words of the IOC President, Jacques Rogge: “In the same way that the IOC recognises these International Federations, I would encourage national-level stakeholders, particularly National Olympic Committees, to recognise and support their member National Federations.” Over recent years, this IOC-recognition has opened up opportunities for a number national cricket federations to become recognised by their NOC and receive access to new sources of funding and support. 3 Estimate provided by ASOIF. Page 9 of 18 The reality, however, in most cases, is that national government and NOC policies focus on supporting those sports that are part of the programme of the Olympic Games. This means that - particularly in the 96 Associate and Affiliate Member countries - sports such as basketball, hockey and rugby 7s are currently receiving more state support than cricket. This is in spite of the fact that over the past decade the ICC has been consistently investing more funds in many of these markets than the international federations responsible for the administration of these other sports. The survey of Associate and Affiliate Members sought to try and find out the scope of the funding discrepancy between cricket and these other sports. Data was provided by over half of the Members and confirmed a broad trend of lower funding levels for cricket than either basketball or hockey. The data supplied by the Members has been cross-referred, on a sampling basis, with representatives from within the basketball, hockey, NOC and IOC communities. This analysis cast doubt on the accuracy of some of the data and highlighted the challenge of defining and quantifying the support that is being provided across a range of countries that have very different regulatory structures and funding models. In compiling this report, therefore, it was decided that it could be misleading to present these findings in full. Nevertheless, several insights can be gleaned from the survey and follow-up research. There is clear evidence that certain populous and/or wealthy countries have identified international sporting success as a high priority and have generally focused their investment on developing athletes to compete at the Olympic Games. A funding comparison in 12 prominent non-traditional cricket countries is presented below: Annual Government/NOC funding provided to National Federations (2011-12) Country Cricket Basketball Hockey Argentina <100,000 >1m >1m Brazil <100,000 >1m >1m Canada <100,000 >1m >1m China <100,000 >1m >1m France <100,000 >1m 500,000-1m Germany <100,000 100,000-500,000 >1m Indonesia <100,000 100,000-500,000 100,000-500,000 100,000-500,000 >1m 500,000-1m Japan <100,000 >1m 500,000-1m Russia <100,000 >1m 100,000-500,000 100,000-500,000 >1m >1m <100,000 500,000-1m 500,000-1m Italy South Korea USA All figures in USD Page 10 of 18 In all of these cases the national level funding provided to cricket is lower than for the other sports. It would be inaccurate to attribute all of this difference to the inclusion of these sports on the Olympic Programme. For example, there are professional basketball leagues in several of these countries and teams from six of the 12 listed above qualified for the men’s or women’s hockey events at London 2012. As a counter-balance there are also several, generally smaller, Associate and Affiliate Member countries where cricket is deeply embedded in the culture and receives more government funding than these other team sports. These countries include Afghanistan, Bermuda and Cayman Islands. Given the other factors that impact on this funding, it is very difficult to make assumptions on the back of this data. It would, however, be safe to project that the total state funding of cricket in the Associate and Affiliate Member countries would increase if cricket became part of the Olympic Games, in all likelihood by several million dollars per annum. The abovementioned figures relate to the funding and support that the national federations will receive from governments and NOCs in the event that cricket features in the Olympic Games. What is not captured here is the wider value of a sport being included in schools programmes, municipal facility development and other public sector initiatives. This is far harder to quantify on a global basis but will be dealt with below by reference to examples from other international federations. Less evidence has been gathered from the Full Members, not least because cricket is already a strong part of the culture in all of these countries. One of the consequences of this is that some of the Full Members – for example, Australia, Bangladesh, England & Wales and New Zealand - already receive more financial support from their governments than many of the sports that feature on the Olympic programme. Another is that in countries where state support for sport is generally very limited – such as India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe – a government or NOC grant would have negligible impact on the business of the national cricket federation. Cricket Australia is the one Full Member to have provided evidence of a potential uplift to the federal support it will receive in the event of Olympic inclusion. Basketball Australia, for example, currently receives annual government funding of AUS$5.8 million compared to Cricket Australia’s AUS$1.6 million.4 5.2.2 Olympic Solidarity An additional source of support available to sports that are part of the Olympic Games is the Olympic Solidarity programme. The funds here are distributed to sporting programmes supported by the National Olympic Committees. The total budget of the Olympic Solidarity programme between 2013 and 2016 is US$435 million. This fund grew by almost 40% between the previous cycle and current one. Based on more conservative projections for future growth of this programme it would be realistic to estimate that cricket programmes could receive 4 2012-13 figures provided by Cricket Australia. Page 11 of 18 between 2-3% of the solidarity fund by the 2025-28 cycle which could be in the region of US$4-6 million per year.5 5.2.3 Examples from other sports Other international federations are quick to espouse the benefits they have garnered from being part of the Olympic Games. Aside from direct funding to the international federations, however, the information in support of this is often either anecdotal or linked to the specific stage of development of the particular sport. Rather than review all 28 sports that are scheduled to be on the programme of the Summer Olympic Games in 2016, this report focuses on the impact that inclusion is having on the most recent additions to the programme, rugby 7s and golf. 5.2.4 Rugby and golf Rugby 7s (IRB) and golf (IGF) were admitted to the Olympic programme in 2009 and will feature in the Games for the first time in Rio in 2016. Neither is maintaining a formal database of the economic impact that this decision has had but both have made public pronouncements about the positive impact on their sports’ profile, funding and participation levels. The case studies below have come directly from these two federations: IRB Case Study (rugby 7s) We have introduced a new reporting mechanism this year to try and capture the impact Olympic inclusion is having as we have found some aspects are difficult to quantify. That said, we are already seeing an uplift in participation and Member Unions in countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Brazil and Russia are receiving financial support from their governments for Rugby Sevens for the first time. A number of member Unions are now also receiving support from Olympic Solidarity via their NOC which is bringing significant additional funding to the Game. The popularity and growth of Sevens has been on the up for some time now as the IRB looked to develop this form of the Game through strategic initiatives and investment. The success of this was evidenced by HSBC being ready to support the Sevens World Series irrespective of the IOC's 2009 decision and the subsequent Olympic factor. Overall there is a greater interest in Sevens and other forms of the Game from commercial and broadcast quarters as well as cities and countries looking to host Rugby events. We have not signed any significant commercial agreements since the Olympic decision but we are aware from the market place of a growing interest in the renewal rights for the HSBC Sevens World Series from both HSBC and other parties and we are anticipating a sizeable uplift in the value of the title sponsorship rights at renewal time in 2015. 5 Based on an estimated increase of 25% per cycle. Page 12 of 18 IGF Case Study (golf) The direct financial benefits were not a driving reason in golf seeking to join the Olympic programme. Our main aim was developmental, to broaden our sport’s reach to new countries through the exposure of the Olympic Games. The revenue boost to golf is impossible to quantify and not something the IGF is measuring. If we were, it could only ever be an estimate as there are always other factors that will influence the broadcast and sponsorship rights fees attracted by the professional golf tours and events. The greatest benefit to date has been the recognition of many of our National Golf Federations by their NOCs and governments and the resources that have flowed from that. We have anecdotes from around 40 of our NFs that have benefited this way and that should not be underestimated. 5.2.5 Triathlon and taekwondo Prior to the IOC’s decision to include rugby and golf on the programme, the previous new international federations to join the Games were the International Triathlon Union (ITU) and World Taekwondo Federation. The ITU credits the Olympic Games with boosting the popularity of its sport but has no specific financial information to back this up. Unfortunately representatives from the WTF did not reply to repeated requests for information.6 5.2.6 Other sports There are no studies that highlight the economic impact of Olympic inclusion on a sport. The only related example that has been uncovered to date comes from an internal study undertaken by an international federation currently involved in the Summer Olympics which estimated that the economic impact of the sport being excluded from the programme of the Olympic Games would be between US$100-200 million. The International Wrestling Federation (FILA) has recently had its status as an Olympic sport put under threat. It has presented a number of arguments in favour of its retention on the programme but, to date, these have been sporting and cultural rather than economic. Based on the above examples, it is not possible to accurately model the impact that inclusion in the Olympic Games will typically have on a sport. While a slot on the programme clearly has the potential to provide an 6 Requests were sent by both the ICC and IOC. Page 13 of 18 uplift in profile, participation and government support, the impact of this will ultimately be determined by the manner in which the opportunity is harnessed by the sport in question. An assumption that Olympic Games participation would provide an incremental boost to broadcast and sponsorship revenues for other cricket properties in non-traditional markets is consistent with the experiences of the IRB and ITU. ICC revenues from Associate and Affiliate Member countries are currently estimated at US $100 million over an eight year cycle. If the ICC’s revenues were to remain at this level for the next commercial cycle and increase by 10% in these markets in the 2023-2031 as a result of cricket’s inclusion in the Olympic Games then this would result in an extra USD 1.25 million per year of income that could, potentially, be indirectly attributed to this initiative. As evidenced by the other federations, the impact that the Olympic Games could have on the profile and development of cricket cannot be quantified in only economic terms. It was highlighted as a primary development priority by the Associate and Affiliate Members in each of the annual Members’ surveys conducted from 2007 to 2010 and would certainly provide increased exposure to the women’s game. This positive impact may also stretch to some of the Full Members. A Cricket Australia survey earlier this year highlighted that it would increase cricket’s ‘share of voice’ in the sports media and raise the profile of the national women’s team.7 7 National survey conducted by Cricket Australia in April 2013. Page 14 of 18 6. THE CONSEQUENCES OF INCLUSION In isolation, the benefits of inclusion in the Olympic Games seem to be very attractive but they need to be carefully weighed against the consequences of inclusion and the impact that involvement in this event may have on the established cricket structures. 6.1 The ‘cost’ of participation There are no direct costs associated with participating in the Olympic Games. All of the logistical costs would be covered by a combination of the Local Organising Committee and the NOCs. Consideration will, however, need to be given to the impact that participation will have on other partnerships and commercial arrangements. For example, no commercial logos will be permissible on team clothing or equipment and, while players will still be permitted to use their own technical equipment (bats, pads, footwear, etc), kit supply arrangements are generally negotiated by the NOC and may be with a rival supplier to the national cricket federation’s regular partner. There is also the opportunity cost as to what other cricket could be staged at this time. Whereas basketball’s NBA never clashes with the Summer Olympics, ice hockey’s National Hockey League (NHL) reluctantly shuts down its season for the duration of the Winter Olympics to enable its players to participate in the Games. This has been the case for each of the past five editions of the Olympic Games but the negotiations are becoming increasingly tense, particularly around player insurance, media coverage and costs. Golf too is still juggling the challenge of rescheduling several prominent tournaments to accommodate the week of Olympic competition. 6.2 Impact on ICC events The schedule of ICC events through to 2023 has yet to be finalised so, understandably, no Board-level consideration has been given to what the schedule will look like in 2024 and beyond. The impact of an Olympic cricket tournament will depend to a large extent on the frequency with which the ICC World Twenty20 is staged in the future. If the plan is to stage the World Twenty20 every two years then, in all likelihood, an Olympic cricket tournament would have to replace one of these competitions in the future. If the plan is to target a four year cycle for the World Twenty20 then the ICC events calendar could potentially be rearranged to accommodate the Olympic T20 event every four years. Page 15 of 18 The evidence from other sports seems to be that a balanced schedule such as this can lead to the Olympic Games helping to enhance the value of World Championship events rather than cannibalising the federation’s own competitions.8 In purely economic terms the revenues from the Olympics event would not come close to offsetting the projected revenues from a World Twenty20. In sporting terms the number of participating men’s teams and the profile of the competition in traditional cricket markets are also likely to be lower. By way of direct comparison, member distributions (after costs) from the ICC World Twenty20 in 2012 were US$85.5m whereas the distribution to a lower-ranked international federation from London 2012 was only US$14m. Furthermore, the total benefit to Members of the ICC World Twenty20 in is expected to be approximately US$150m. 6.3 Impact on the FTP and Members Cricket’s inclusion in the Olympic Games would have a vastly different impact on different Members and their domestic and international commitments. In Australia’s case it has generally been able to steer clear of going ‘head to head’ with the Olympics as there is never a clash between its home season and the Summer Games. In the England and Wales Cricket Board’s case, however, the potential for a clash occurs every four years. Indeed, the ECB has estimated that an Olympic Games in the first half of August could see it lose an entire four-match Test series which would, based on its current valuations, cause cricket in England and Wales to miss out on revenues of US$130 million and would – based on the knock-on effects in other years - require compensation of approximately US$ 160 million.9 The ECB is not the only Full Member with high profile commitments in August. Sri Lanka, West Indies and Zimbabwe have all staged home international cricket in August in recent years. 6.4 Non-financial challenges As well as the financial considerations, there are other important non-financial factors to be taken into consideration. There is currently a difference between the ICC’s player eligibility criteria and the athlete eligibility criteria in the Olympic Charter that would need to be resolved. 8 This has been the experience of both the ITU and FIBA (basketball) and seems to be supported by early evidence from the IRB. 9 Based on confidential estimates provided by the ECB (US$ 100m of central broadcast and sponsorship revenue, US$ 30m of venue income and US$ 30m of reduced income in other years due to the need to schedule additional matches outside London to help sustain other venues). Page 16 of 18 The qualification process for an Olympic competition would be at the ICC’s discretion and could be based primarily on the Reliance ICC rankings or the outcomes of earlier events such as the ICC World Twenty20 (negating the need for a dedicated Olympic qualifying competition). This would, however, require certain policy decisions to be made about which teams would be eligible for participation, particularly where there is a discrepancy between the ICC and IOC list of ‘countries’. The two biggest issues here would be: the need for the various ICC Members from Great Britain and Northern Ireland to compete as one team; and the need for the territories of the West Indies to compete as separate teams The former issue has created selection and autonomy issues for other sports (notably football in 2012 and now rugby 7s in 2016) while the latter was effectively handled for the Commonwealth Games cricket event in 1998 but has the potential to cause friction. Arguably an even bigger factor to consider is the impact than inclusion may have on Member autonomy, particularly in India. This has previously been raised as a critical issue by the BCCI and no decision to proceed could be made without a satisfactory resolution of this matter. Finally, the impact than an additional Twenty20 event will have on the international cricket calendar should not be ignored. There is already a trend emerging of more Twenty20 matches being scheduled in the months leading up to an ICC World Twenty20 event and an Olympic competition could inspire a similar increase in the number of Twenty20 international matches. The introduction of this event should be considered in the wider context of other strategic issues including the balance between the three international formats, player workloads and domestic leagues. Page 17 of 18 7. CONCLUSION This report has been prepared from a predominantly economic perspective but, even then, there is both subjectivity and uncertainty in relation to many of the key assumptions and projections. It is only six years since the first ICC World Twenty20 took place and yet this report is seeking to predict what the international sporting landscape may look like 11 years from now. It is appropriate, therefore, that there should be no concrete recommendations emanating from this analysis. One certainty is that cricket undoubtedly has the capacity to thrive as a sport with or without the Olympic Games. The manner in which it will grow, however, will depend on the strategic decisions that are taken by the ICC Board. A judgment on whether or not to pursue inclusion in the Olympic Games is arguably one of the biggest strategic decisions it will face. Many other sports have taken this decision based on emotion and instinct. The evidence-based approach being driven by the ICC Board reflects well on the ICC and highlights that, in cricket’s case, it is a decision with both benefits and drawbacks that merits careful and thorough consideration. Page 18 of 18
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