Thatcham Research:
Dean Lander
Head of Operations, Thatcham Research
The independent voice of automotive safety and
repair, advising motorists, insurers, body shops and
vehicle manufacturers to help reduce accident
frequency, severity and costs.
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Agenda
Vehicle trends
The Complex Car
The Smart Car
The Autonomous Car
The Impact of Vehicle Trends on Repair
COMPLEXITY
Changes in vehicle construction is moving faster than ever
We will look at The challenges and the response
The impact on repair
Innovation in Lightweight Structure
• Lightweight Steels
• Aluminium construction
• Carbon fibre
The Materials – Benefits over Costs
The most advantageous weight loss comes from carbon fiber however current production
capabilities mean this is also the highest cost alternative to lightweight Steel construction.
Modernising Powertrains
Worldwide, gasoline engines are the most popular powertrain while in the EU and India, every second new car is a diesel.
Hybrid and Electric Vehicles
Almost 20% of new vehicles sold in Japan are hybrid,
spark-ignition
CNG – Compressed Natural Gas
25% Sales growth worldwide. 11% market share in South
Korea.
Up to 50% cheaper than gasoline, and reduces CO2
emissions by up to 25%.
Flex fuel - Powertrains that can drive on both gasoline and
alcohol (ethanol)
Especially prominent in Brazil with the second largest
market for this technology being the United States.
Source: www.bosch.com
Advancing electronics
Complex repairs are not to be feared
Advanced powertrains creates new
hazards for safe working practices.
Advanced electronic systems creates
complexities in fault recognition and
resets
More material choices creates
complexities in material joining strategies.
Using vehicle specific technical
information will ensure the workforce
remains safe.
A skilled workforce with modern
infrastructure and resources will allow
your business to manage this technology
advancement.
Using vehicle specific technical
information and skilled workforce with
modern infrastructure and resources will
allow your business to manage these
advanced processes.
The Smart Car
CONNECTIVITY
The car has become part of the internet of things.
We will look at
The communication capabilities
Cybersecurity threat and data ownership
Can the car make the claim?
Smart cars
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Digital innovation - Cars talking to cars and road signs - Connecting with our mobile telematics devices.
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Data & Electronics companies - New entrants or market disruptors?
Trend setters & Innovators
But what if the car made the claim?
999
EMERGENCY
SERVICES
INSURER INSTANT FNOL
DATA CENTRES
CUSTOMER
SATISFACTION
& RETENTION
DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT
& PARTS LIST
SCHEDULING
ANALYTICS
RECOVERY
REPAIR TIMES
& METHODS
KEY-2-KEY
EFFICIENCY
GAINS
Source: images for illustrative purposes only.
Autonomy
AUTONOMY
Vehicle design is on a path to complete autonomy
We will look at
Levels of Autonomous Vehicles
What’s here now and its effects on accidents and repair
Predicted Timelines for innovation and implementation
Driver ceases full
control of all
safety critical
functions under
certain conditions
Level 4
Involves at least 2
primary control
functions
designed to work
in unison
Level 3
Involves 1 or more
specific control
Function
Level 2
Level 1
Commonly Recognised Levels of Autonomy
Human provides
destination or
navigation input
but is not in
control at any time
during the journey
Level 1 – Autonomous Emergency Braking
•
Thatcham Research developed test
protocols for this technology and
are a world leading reference in
AEB and ADAS system
effectiveness.
•
Euro NCAP see a 38% overall
reduction in real-world,
rear-end crashes.
•
UK insurers see a 27% reduction
in Personal Injury claims
The Impact of AEB on Claims
Speed Reduction in Rear-End Crashes
Cosmetic
Cosmetic
Moderate
Moderate
Severe
Severe
Accident Damage Distribution
Cosmetic
Moderate
Severe
Severe =
Severe £540m
= £140m
Delta V = change of energy in a crash (not approach speed). Simple e.g. car travelling at 30km/h hits a stationary car; delta V is approx. 15km/h; complex calculation allows for many
factors including vehicle stiffness, rebound etc.
Source: Kullgren A, Dose-response models and EDR data for assessment of injury risk and effectiveness studies, Proceedings of IRCOBI conference, Bern, Switzerland, 2008. Strandroth J, et al . Head-on collisions between passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles: Injury risk functions and benefits of Autonomous Emergency Braking , Proceedings
of IRCOBI conference, 2012.
Future Claims - AEB Effect in Front to Rear Claims
Write-off threshold
Prediction of Effect on write-off frequency
Assumptions:
• Write-off associated with airbag deployment
• Airbag deployment threshold at a delta V of 25km/h
2025: 18% reduction
in write-off crashes
Drive Me Gothenburg
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First large scale trials of production ready
Automated Driving
Test route around Gothenburg ring road
including junctions, traffic signals and
merging
Complex network of sensors, cloud-based
positioning systems and intelligent braking
and steering technologies
2017: trials with 100 customers driving
Production cars available 2018/19 – subject to
change in EC Directive
State of the Art 2015: the Volvo XC90
RACam
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City Safety
AEB with collision warning
VRU AEB
ACC with queue assist
Junction Protection
LKA
77GHz RADAR
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BLIS
Cross Traffic Alert
Rear Collision Mitigation
Park Assist:
360° Surround view
(incl. rear sensor)
Ultrasonics used to find space,
RACam and rear RADAR used
to park
The Trends, Risks and Opportunities
Market trends / Impacts
More complex technology and structures
Potential for more complicated,
lengthy and expensive repairs.
Evolution of the smart car
Changing triage and estimating
habits and workshop loading.
Developing levels of autonomy
Reduction in crash frequency
and severity
The Opportunities
The survivor will
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Develop a “what repairs” business strategy
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Create a staff and equipment competency model
fitting of that strategy.
The survivor will
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Make intelligent investments in IT infrastructure and
Vehicle specific data access tools
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Train staff to cope with the digital revolution
The survivor will
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Invest in vehicle specific repair data
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Train staff in electronic and material damage
diagnostics
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Plan for changing volumes in their business
Evolution of the Modern Vehicle
Crash of the Future
Car of the Future
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Active safety
Passive safety
Mixed materials
Powertrain complexity
Autonomy
Driver of the Future
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Driver out of loop
Skill level under manual driving
Interaction with ADAS
Liability
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Frequency
Personal injury
Accident Severity
Product liability
Repair of the Future
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Severity
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Cost & Time
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ADAS Repair & resetting
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Handling of HV & Hydrogen
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New & Mixed materials
& mixed materials