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Six Lessons from
Minnesota’s 3rd District
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Dec. 20, 2016
Volume 39, No. 24
Montana Senate: GOP
Chances Left in Zinke’s Wake?
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Nearly two years before Election Day
2018, some Republicans have already thrown
in the towel on one of their top Senate takeover
targets.
Donald Trump’s selection of GOP Rep. Ryan
Zinke to become the Secretary of the Interior creates yet another House
open seat but essentially takes a potential Senate challenger off the table
this cycle.
Republicans have their eye on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who will
be running for a third term in Montana, where Trump just demolished
Hillary Clinton by 20 points. As a statewide elected official and a
retired Navy Seal, Zinke looked like a natural candidate to take on the
Democratic senator. But that doesn’t mean he would have been the best
candidate or that he’s the only candidate who could defeat Tester.
GOP strategists have been lamenting Trump’s decision on
background to Roll Call, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times.
“With just one appointment, Mr. Trump...imperiled the party’s
chances in a key Senate race and likely triggered a special election
for Mr. Zinke’s House seat,” according to the Times story. The piece
detailed Mitch McConnell’s courtship of the congressman going back
to the summer and recent calls to Vice President-elect Mike Pence and
future White House chief of staff Reince Priebus to try and head off the
nomination.
“It would have been one of the biggest, toughest battles in the country
and now I think Tester probably skates home free,” Zinke’s media
consultant told the Times.
But any analysis and handicapping of the Montana Senate race needs
to include Tester’s positioning and partisan leaning of the state, and not
just the state of the GOP field.
Tester was first elected in 2006, the best Democratic cycle in a
generation, and won by less than 1 point (49-48 percent) over aging GOP
Sen. Conrad Burns, who had ties to infamous lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Continued on page 7
When DFL state Sen. Terri Bonoff got into the race
against GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in April, it was heralded as
a “big deal.”
Democrats had coaxed a long-recruited candidate
off of the sidelines and into a previously uncompetitive
suburban district where Donald Trump was destined to lose and bring
down Paulsen with him.
Bonoff was a poster child for an expanding House playing field,
Democrats spent millions of dollars on her behalf and she lost, and it
wasn’t even close. Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by nearly 9 points in
Minnesota’s 3rd District, but Paulsen prevailed by 14 points, 57-43 percent.
So what happened?
House Democrats gained six seats this year (the first time a party has
lost the White House and gained House seats since 2000) but the DCCC
has been criticized by a handful of Members and some consultants for
underperforming, particularly with Trump at the top of the ballot.
As with any complex race, isolating individual factors is virtually
impossible, but there are a few lessons from the 3rd District.
Picking targets ain’t easy. Now that the ballots have been counted,
it’s easy to wonder why the DCCC spent so much time and money in the
3rd District, where Paulsen won by 14 points at the same time that DFL
candidate Angie Craig lost by 2 points in the neighboring 2nd District.
Committee strategists saw Craig outspending Republican Jason
Lewis 5:1 (she had the television airwaves to herself for over a month)
and didn’t believe additional spending would have a significant impact
on the outcome. So they maintained their focus where Bonoff was being
dramatically outspent by Paulsen and Clinton was poised to win.
Even though Paulsen was a four-term incumbent with a moderate
reputation, one Democrat said it would have been “political malpractice”
not to play in the district where Clinton was polling ahead by a wide
margin. In comparison, Trump narrowly won the 2nd District.
“You have to try and make certain races real based on the way you
think the electorate is going,” according to another Democratic source.
If the DCCC had pulled out of Minnesota’s 3rd, there wasn’t a natural
place to shift the money. Democrats fell just short in Texas 23, but the
party saturated the airwaves for nine weeks. Democrat Doug Applegate
lost a close race go GOP Rep. Darrell Issa in California, but the DCCC’s
money would not have made much of a dent in the expensive and
inefficient Los Angeles media market.
But Democrats never even considered pulling out of Minnesota 3, since
their data consistently showed the Trump message resonating with voters
and helping them gain traction against Paulsen until the final days.
Continued on page 8
RothenbergGonzales.com
Georgia 6 Special: Republicans Look to Hold Suburban Seat
By Nathan L. Gonzales
President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination for Secretary of
Health & Human Services sets up a special election in Georgia that is
most likely to stay in Republican hands, but might be impossible for
Democrats to pass up.
As an orthopedic surgeon and Affordable Care Act critic, GOP
Rep. Tom Price is a logical choice for Trump, and there is no shortage of
potential Republican contenders -- including the congressman’s wife and
former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel -- who may have eyes on
his seat in the north Atlanta suburbs.
Georgia’s 6th
Congressional
District
The Lay of the Land
Price hasn’t had a difficult general election race since he was first
elected in 2004 to an open seat left vacant when Republican Johnny
Isakson left to run for the Senate. Mitt Romney carried the 6th District
easily, 61-37 percent, in 2012 over President Barack Obama.
Democratic strategists would probably pass on challenging in the
special election, but Trump won the district narrowly, 48-47 percent,
on Nov. 8. The DCCC has been criticized for not meeting nationwide
expectations and not challenging in enough districts, so there may be
pressure to make a play for this district early next year.
The special election likely won’t take place until April, at the earliest,
after the Legislature is out of session. Gov. Nathan Deal will have 30
days to call the special election after Price is confirmed and resigns,
which looks like sometime in February. All candidates will run together,
regardless of party, and the top two will move on to a runoff if no one
reaches 50 percent.
The fight to replace Price is most likely to play out on the Republican
side, but the Democratic field could impact whether one or two GOPers
make the runoff.
For Democrats to have any chance, they need to keep their candidates
to a minimum in order to avoid dividing a minority of the vote and get a
candidate into the runoff.
Former state Rep. Sally Harrell is hoping to be that contender, but two
other Democrats are running including former state Sen. Ron Slotin and
attorney Josh McLaurin, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Former Georgia Tech quarterback/former state Rep. Taylor Bennett has
also been mentioned.
The Republicans
Considering the seat isn’t officially open yet and the holidays are
imminent, the GOP field is still taking shape.
State Rep. Betty Price, the congressman’s wife, is poised to run,
according to an early report by Human Events’ John Gizzi, and she would
be formidable. Price, an an­es­thesi­olo­gist, is also an elected official in her
own right with access to a fundraising network and name identification
Continued on page 3
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Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@nathanlgonzales
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[email protected]
@stupolitics
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Production Artist
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Contributing Writer
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December 20, 2016
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Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
Georgia: Field Should Solidify After Holidays
(even if it’s confusion), which could be assets in a brief race. She
subsequently told National Journal that she was very interested but had
not made a decision.
Handel would also be a formidable contender and is all-butannounced, according to multiple GOP sources. She’s fallen short in two
statewide primaries, including the 2010 gubernatorial runoff and the
2014 Senate race, but this House contest will be in her backyard.
The former Georgia secretary of state, former head of the Greater
North Fulton Chamber of Commerce, and former senior vice president
for Susan G. Komen for the Cure would start the race with considerable
name identification and fundraising capacity and would be a strong
contender for a runoff slot.
Handel would also likely have a strong team including her former
senior adviser and deputy secretary of state Rob Simms, the outgoing
executive director
of the NRCC, who
just started a political
consulting firm with
former Republican
National Committee
Chief of Staff Mike
Shields.
State Sen. Judson
Hill is running. He was
gearing up to run in
Judson Hill
2014, when Tom Price
was mentioned as a potential Senate candidate. Hill has already been to
Washington to meet with conservative groups and has met with at least
one potential media consultant. If Handel doesn’t run, Hill could stand to
benefit from support from outside conservative groups.
State Sen. Brandon Beach is also a potential contender. He met with
Tom Price a few months ago and told the congressman he was going
to set up an exploratory committee but didn’t intend to primary him,
according to a GOP source. If Clinton had won the presidential race
or Trump had not
selected Price for
a Cabinet post, the
congressman likely
would have run for
governor, leaving an
open congressional
seat in either scenario.
Beach is president
and CEO of the
Greater North
Brandon Beach
Fulton Chamber of
Commerce, the same position once held by Handel, and would likely
be a credible contender with strong fundraising. He might benefit from
some name identification confusion for local baseball fans who think he
is former Atlanta Braves pitcher Brandon Beachy. Former Braves Hall of
Fame pitcher John Smoltz is regarded as a potential candidate someday,
but is close to Beach.
rothenbergGonzales.com
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 2
Karen Handel
State Rep. Chuck Martin is seriously considering a bid but may not be
able to raise enough money to compete with the top tier. The AJC reported
on an automated poll testing John Isakson Jr., son of the U.S. senator, as a
potential candidate, but local sources don’t expect him to run.
Bruce LeVell could run as well, but as leader of Trump’s National
Diversity Coalition, he is probably in line for a job in the Administration,
if he wants it. But his candidacy could be a test of the power of Trump’s
operation, if the new president agrees to turn it out for a supporter.
How It Plays Out
There are a few key pieces that still need to fall into place for this race
to happen, including Price’s confirmation by the Senate. But the rest of
the GOP field may not take that long, and could announce soon after the
holidays.
It won’t take long next year before it’s clear whether Democrats plan
to make a serious run at the district. Trump’s performance makes it look
enticing and Democrats might be itching to start a positive midterm
cycle, but it seems more likely that GOP problems in the 6th District are
unique to Trump. Republican strategists aren’t particularly concerned
about losing the seat.
The biggest question is which Republican will succeed Price. Betty
Price and Handel would be top contenders in the shortened timeframe
of a special election, but Beach would be serious as well. Handel is a
polarizing figure, even in GOP circles, and has fallen short in high-profile
primaries before, but a congressional primary is a different story.
Handel could also have an advantage considering the heat of the initial
race is likely to take place during the legislative session when many of her
opponents could be tied up. But there is also likely to be a two-month gap
before the runoff, which could allow an opponent to regroup.
Tom Price is not an official member of the House Freedom Caucus,
so there could be an opportunity for the conservative group to improve
their numbers. Looking at the current field, there doesn’t appear to be a
natural fit for the HFC ideology any more so than Price, who acts like a
member of the group at times.
The race for Georgia’s 6th District is likely to get a disproportionate
amount of attention as one of next cycle’s first contests. But it will only
make shockwaves if Democrats pull off an upset.
December 20, 2016
3
Louisiana Runoffs Wrap 2016 Elections
The electoral college votes have been
cast, all of the close races concluded
without extensive recounts and lawsuits,
and the Louisiana runoffs are over, bringing
an end to the 2016 elections.
GOP state Treasurer John Kennedy
defeated Democrat Foster Campbell, 6139 percent, on Dec. 10 in the final Senate
contest of the cycle. Kennedy’s victory keeps Sen.
David Vitter’s seat in Republican hands and gives his party a 52-48
majority in the Senate next year.
Multiple Democratic candidates combined for 36 percent in the initial
all-party election last month. In the days and weeks after, Campbell
tapped into Democratic donors nationwide looking to salvage something
positive from the Nov. 8 results, but he was only able to increase the
party vote by just 3 points.
The final margin, which was close to Donald Trump’s 58-38 percent
victory over Hillary Clinton in the presidential race, finalized history:
For the first time in 100 years, since the country started directly electing
senators, each state’s presidential outcome matched the partisan result of
its Senate race.
Candidate Conversation
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
Clay Higgins (R)
Congressman-Elect for
Louisiana’s 3rd District
Interview Date: Dec. 15, 2016
Date of Birth: Aug. 24, 1961;
New Orleans, La.
Education: Louisiana State
Univ. (attended)
Political Office: None; First
run for office
Current Outlook: Higgins won the Dec. 10 runoff against fellow
Republican Scott Angelle, 56-44 percent, in the race to replace GOP
Rep. Charles Boustany (R).
Evaluation: Higgins comes to Congress with quite a reputation as
a straight-talking, crime fighter from his popular Crime Stoppers
videos. While he was no-nonsense in our interview, he showed a
slightly softer side. Higgins talked about growing up the seventh
of eight children and having to stop short of graduating from LSU
when his first wife’s father was killed in an accident in Venezuela
and he had to work full-time to bring his wife’s mom and sister to the
States. As a retired police captain and retired Military Police officer
in the Army who worked his way up in the car dealing business, the
Republican brings varied experience to Congress, all of it outside of
Washington. He had never been to the nation’s capital until a visit
after the initial November race. Early in the presidential race, Higgins
was a Ted Cruz supporter, and appears likely to join the House
Freedom Caucus if invited, but his aides subsequently said he has
made no firm commitments at this point.
4
December 20, 2016
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
By Nathan L. Gonzales
John Kennedy
In the Senate, Kennedy is likely to be a mainstream, populist
conservative rather than an agitator in the mold of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
You can read more about Kennedy’s background and path to the Senate
in the Dec. 2 issue of the Report.
In the 3rd District, former sheriff Clay Higgins defeated Scott
Angelle, 56-44 percent. It wasn’t a complete surprise based on the
limited polling and our analysis in the last issue, but it’s an example of
anti-establishment sentiment hindering an establishment favorite in a
Louisiana congressional race.
Angelle, a former gubernatorial candidate and locally elected official,
raised more money and had the best traditional campaign operation.
Higgins was a financially challenged retired sheriff who became a local
celebrity and internet sensation for his Crime Stoppers videos.
Higgins is a political outsider because this is his first run for office.
But he was elected without the help of outside groups, such as the House
Freedom Caucus or the Club for Growth, which boost anti-establishment
candidates, so he’s not inextricably tied to them.
In a recent interview, Higgins said he’d be honored to be invited
by the HFC, which seems ideological compatible with his view of the
inerrancy of the Constitution, but his aides subsequently said he will
not make any firm decision until he understands the group’s agenda.
It would be significant if Higgins joins the Freedom Caucus because
Boustany, whom he is replacing, is not a member of the group. That
would change the balance in the House Republican conference.
The new congressman will also need to surround himself with some
political insiders, considering there were questions through the course of
the campaign about how Higgins handles his finances.
In the 4th District, Republican state Rep. Mike Johnson was elected
to GOP Rep. John Fleming’s open seat, as expected. He defeated
Democratic attorney Marshall Jones 65-35 percent. Johnson is expected
to join the House Freedom Caucus, essentially replacing Fleming among
the most conservative Members of the GOP conference.
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
Kansas 4 Special: Secret Race to Replace New CIA Director
Donald Trump doesn’t appear to have much faith
in the CIA’s findings on Russia’s involvement in the
election, but that didn’t stop him for nominating
Kansas GOP Rep. Mike Pompeo to direct the agency.
There is no clear successor in Pompeo’s 4th
District, but state Treasurer Ron Estes is regarded as
the frontrunner. Plenty of other candidates appear
to be interested, including outgoing Rep. Tim Huelskamp (who lost
renomination in the 1st District earlier this year) and former Rep. Todd
Tiahrt (who left the seat in 2010 to run for the Senate).
The race to replace Pompeo in the Wichita-based seat will technically
be public, but will essentially be decided by a few local GOP insiders.
Mitt Romney carried the district with 62 percent in 2012 (2016 district
results are still being finalized), so the seat is not at particular risk of a
Democratic takeover
and the fight will
largely take place on
the Republican side.
Once the
congressman resigns
(presumably after
being confirmed),
GOP Gov. Sam
Brownback has five
days to call a special
Mike Pompeo
election, which is
to be held between 45 and 60 days. That means the election could fall
sometime near the end of February or beginning of March, depending on
Pompeo’s confirmation.
And according to state law, there will not be regular party primaries,
which means aspiring Republicans essentially need to convince
approximately 65 local committeemen and women to get a seat in
Congress.
“This is the cheapest, easiest primary in the country,” according to one
Kansas Republican.
Estes appears to have an advantage, at least in part, because he
has help from his wife Susan, a former 4th District chairwoman who
recruited most of the committeemen and women in Sedgwick County
(Wichita), as well as from Debbie Luper, Tiahrt’s former field director
who recruited most of the committeemen and women from the outlying
rural counties. Most of these decision-makers make up the grassroots
of the party -- they are the people stuffing envelopes and marching in
parades.
Tiahrt is a known commodity to local Republicans, but is a polarizing
figure within the party. It wasn’t his 2010 Senate primary against
fellow Rep. Jerry Moran that upset the faithful, but his attempt to come
back in 2014, when he challenged Pompeo in the GOP primary. The
congressman prevailed 63-37 percent and some Republicans haven’t
forgiven Tiahrt.
Tiahrt starts with high name identification as the former Member, but
he must convince the local Republicans that he’s not old news, and do it
all without one of his most-trusted aides.
rothenbergGonzales.com
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
By Nathan L. Gonzales
“There is no Todd without Debbie,” according to a key
Kansas source.
Estes, Tiahrt, former radio talk show host Joseph Ashby,
local attorney George Bruce, American Conservative
Union Chairman Matt Schlapp and Alan Cobb attended
the 4th District re-organizational meeting a little more than
a week ago. Former state Rep. Kasha Kelley, who recently
lost re-election in the GOP primary, is also interested in the seat.
Schlapp is former political director to President George W. Bush
and married to Mercedes Schlapp, a FOX News contributor who was
mentioned as a strong contender to lead the Republican National
Committee. Matt is from Wichita and local sources believe he could be
an effective Member of Congress, but he and his wife have been living in
Washington, D.C. and residency could be an issue.
Bruce is Tiahrt’s former treasurer and used to work for the Kansas
Club for Growth, and Ashby has been genuinely considering a bid for
the last month, but neither are considered to be in the top tier.
Cobb might be the dark horse candidate in the race. He’s been active
in Kansas politics for two decades including work for former Sen. Bob
Dole, managing Tim Shallenburger’s 2002 gubernatorial campaign and
being Kansas state director for Americans for Prosperity. He eventually
oversaw state programs for AFP and hired Corey Lewandowski to run
New Hampshire.
More recently, Cobb was an early and senior adviser to Trump,
working on ballot access and delegate allocation and eventually
becoming the coalitions director. He could probably have a plum
position in the White House, if he wants it. But if he is selected as the
GOP congressional nominee and gets to the House, he would have as
close to a direct line to the Oval Office as might exist from the Hill.
Huelskamp wasn’t shy about reminding reporters on the Hill that
he is from the 4th District and doesn’t live far from the seat when the
Pompeo news first happened. He lost to Dr. Roger Marshall, 57-43
percent, in the GOP primary in the 1st District earlier this year after a
drawn out battle with GOP Leadership in the House.
Local Kansas sources don’t believe he’s gaining much traction in
this race and it’s not even clear that the congressman will attempt a
comeback.
This isn’t Estes’ first look at Congress. He formed an exploratory
committee last cycle when Pompeo considered challenging Moran in
a Senate primary. Estes was first elected statewide in 2010, when he
defeated Democratic incumbent Dennis McKinney 59-41 percent in the
GOP wave.
These races are difficult to handicap when polls don’t do any good
and traditional campaign indicators such as fundraising are virtually
useless because a small number of people will make the decision. But
Estes looks like the frontrunner.
Based on the heavily Republican nature of the district and the closed
process of selecting a candidate, there is a good chance the special
election winner will face a competitive GOP primary in 2018.
This is the scenario when a political outsider could gain some
traction or the House Freedom Caucus could decide to try to leverage
Huelskamp back to Washington.
December 20, 2016
5
California 34 Special: Becerra Jumps Off Leadership
Ladder to Become State Attorney General
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra is vacating his Southern California
House seat to become California’s state attorney general, leaving
behind a safe Democratic district and a hole in the House leadership
ladder.
Becerra, 58, was the term-limited chairman of the House
Democratic Caucus with a logjam above him on the leadership
ladder. He announced in late November he would vie for chairman
of the Ways and Means Committee, but an offer a couple of days
later to be appointed to statewide office was apparently too good to
pass up.
The special election would probably be held no earlier than spring
2017, according to the Los Angeles Times, though the law gives Democratic
Gov. Jerry Brown wide discretion in setting the schedule, particularly if
it could be consolidated with already-scheduled citywide elections in
March and May. The seat won’t be vacant until Becerra resigns, which he
won’t do until he’s confirmed by the Legislature, which won’t convene
again until Jan.4.
Even though the race hasn’t even officially begun, it has already taken
a significant twist.
Former Assembly Speaker John Perez announced his campaign
almost immediately after the Becerra news became public and became
the initial frontrunner
for the 34th District
with endorsements
from Sen.-elect
Kamala Harris
(whom Becerra is
replacing), Lt. Gov.
Gavin Newsom, and
former Los Angeles
Mayor Antonio
Villaraigosa.
Jimmy Gomez
Perez, 47,
subsequently announced he was dropping out of a race that had barely
begun, citing a newly diagnosed health condition. Assemblyman
Jimmy Gomez promptly jumped in to fill the vacuum and became the
frontrunner.
Gomez, 42, has been endorsed by current L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti,
state Senate President Pro tem Kevin de Leon, L.A. County Supervisor/
former Labor Secretary/former congresswoman Hilda Solis, and L.A.
City Council President Herb Wesson.
Gomez was first elected in 2012 and recently re-elected with 86
percent of the vote. He currently represents more than half of the 34th
District, which includes East Los Angeles. Gomez graduated from
UCLA, earned a Master’s Degree from Harvard’s Kennedy School of
Government, and has worked as an advocate and organizer for the
United Nurses Associations of California.
But Gomez certainly won’t clear the field.
According to the LA Times, the field includes Wendy Carrillo, a local
labor activist and former journalist who was brought to the United
6
December 20, 2016
California’s 34th Congressional District
States illegally from El Salvador as a child; Kenneth Mejia, a Green Party
candidate and self-proclaimed “Berniecrat” who previously ran against
Becerra in the June election as a write-in candidate; Sara Hernandez,
a former aide to L.A. City Councilman Jose Huizar who now runs the
public affairs institute Coro Southern California; and Arturo Carmona,
a former deputy political director for Bernie Sanders’ presidential
campaign.
The 34th district includes East Los Angeles, Eagle Rock, Highland
Park and Elysian Park (including Dodger Stadium) and is heavily
Democratic. President Barack Obama carried the seat with 83 percent in
2012 and Republicans didn’t even field a candidate in this year’s regular
congressional race. It’s also a majority minority district where Latinos
make up more than half of registered voters and Asian Americans
comprise another 15 percent of the electorate.
Becerra isn’t a spring chicken, but he’s younger than the top leaders
of the Democrats in the House, who are all over 75 years old. Maryland
Democrat Chris Van Hollen, 57, was also viewed as a rising star in the
House, but he left to run for the Senate and was elected on Nov. 8. The
average age of the GOP leadership in the House is 47.
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
Montana: Don’t Disregard Senate Race Yet
rothenbergGonzales.com
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Tester was re-elected in 2012, another good Democratic year and
once again with less than a majority (49-45 percent) against the sitting
congressman who had an alcohol-related boat crash on his record and
sued the Billings fire department for an incident in which they put out
a fire on his property. Even with the baggage, many people thought
Rehberg would defeat
Tester.
Trump’s 56-36
percent victory in this
year’s presidential
race is an indication
that Tester can’t be
too comfortable. And
Democratic strategists
admit this race is still
very serious, even
Jon Tester
without Zinke.
Tester should know he isn’t safe, even if Republicans’ initial choice
to challenge him is out of the game. In 2006, Democratic state Auditor
John Morrison was the Establishment choice to take on Burns until his
campaign met controversy and Tester defeated him in the primary.
That’s not to say Tester’s allies weren’t worried about Zinke.
According to multiple media reports, Land Tawney, president of
Backcountry Hunters & Anglers and a Tester supporter, lobbied Trump
for Zinke to get the post. Donald Trump Jr., a member of Backcountry
Hunters & Anglers, was also part of the lobbying effort.
According to the Times, Tawney “denied any ulterior motive in
backing Mr. Zinke for the cabinet, calling him an ideal candidate on
many of the organization’s core issues.”
Tawney ran an independent group that spent millions of dollars
propping up the Libertarian candidate in 2012 in order to boost Tester’s
re-election chances and was chosen by the senator to be on the Montana
Sportsmen’s Advisory Panel.
Tawney told the Wall Street Journal that Zinke “understands the
importance of public lands and balancing management of these
important resources with energy development and other uses.”
And once again he denied to the Journal that his advocacy in favor of
Zinke had anything to do with Tester’s chances. The congressman shares
Montana “hunting and fishing values,” Tawney told the Journal.
That’s hard to reconcile considering Tawney’s criticism of legislation
that Zinke supported just six months ago.
In June, BHA and Tawney were “strongly critical” of a couple “bad”
public lands bills, including Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador’s Self-Sufficient
Community Lands Act. The bill, which “would enable the seizure of
public lands is being strongly criticized by public lands sportsmen, who
called the bills an affront to America’s national public lands legacy.”
“Once again, the House Natural Resources Committee has voted in
favor of legislation that not only goes against the will of the American
people; it also attacks the very foundation of our national heritage,”
Tawney said in a press release. “We the people must stand up and let
Congress...know that public lands must remain in public hands. These
ill-fated proposals should be left to die on the vine.”
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 1
Zinke voted for the bill in committee.
House Democrats tried to make it an issue in this year’s race, but
it didn’t appear to make much of a dent. But some Republicans were
concerned that it would have done more damage under the bright lights
of a top-tier Senate race.
It’s also one reason why some GOP strategists were never convinced
that Zinke was the only option for Republicans. He has a reputation for
being difficult to work with and running average campaigns. The GOP
might be better off with a blank slate candidate that they can cultivate
into an alternative.
Of course, it’s virtually impossible to know how Trump will perform
as president, how voters will react to his first two years in office, and
how that will impact their vote in the 2018 midterms. But the bottom line
is that the Montana Senate race is still on the map of competitive races,
even without Zinke.
At-Large District
Trump’s selection of the Montana congressman impacts Zinke’s
House seat. The field is just beginning to take shape.
Democrats will naturally look to outgoing state Superintendent of
Public Instruction Denise Juneau, who just lost to Zinke 56-41 percent
on Nov. 8 despite high hopes from Democratic strategists. She hasn’t
ruled out another congressional run but is clearly more interested in
becoming president
of the University of
Montana, according
to her interview
with Montana Public
Radio.
Among the
potential GOP
candidates are a trio of
just-elected statewide
officials including
Ryan Zinke
state Sen. Elsie
Arntzen, an elementary school teacher, who is set to become the first
Republican superintendent of public instruction in Montana in nearly 30
years, succeeding term-limited Juneau, according to Simone Pathé in Roll
Call. Arntzen ran for the House seat in 2014, finishing fourth in the GOP
primary.
Former state Sen. Corey Stapleton, the secretary of state-elect, could
also run. Zinke defeated him in the 2014 Republican primary for the atlarge congressional seat. Stapleton also ran unsuccessfully for the GOP
gubernatorial nod in 2012. And outgoing state Senate Majority Leader
Matt Rosendale, the state auditor-elect who also lost to Zinke in the 2014
primary, is mentioned as well.
The special election would gain a disproportionate amount of national
attention if Richard Spencer runs. The white nationalist leader who
gained prominence for his “Hail Trump” speech in Washington, D.C.
recently told The Huffington Post that he is considering a congressional
bid. His candidacy could be an early headache for the NRCC.
But Democrats haven’t held the seat in nearly 20 years, so they’ll start
off as the underdogs in the special election.
December 20, 2016
7
Minnesota: Paulsen Pounced on Bonoff’s Record
Continued from page 8
Democrats divided on data. One of the most glaring moments of the
race was when the DCCC’s internal analytics department released a onenight IVR poll from Sept. 12, which showed Bonoff with a 2-point lead
over Paulsen, 40-38 percent.
Virtually all Democrats (and all Republicans) who didn’t sit within the
confines of the DCCC thought the poll was off. One Democrat involved in
the race went as far to call the survey a “crock” in a recent interview.
It would be another month, and after the Access Hollywood tape
being released, before anyone released or conducted a poll as positive for
Bonoff. And even the Oct. 11-13 survey for House Majority PAC (D) had
Paulsen with a 45-42 percent advantage.
Even those Democrats who now admit the 2-point poll might have
been too rosy, said they were encouraged by the trendline which showed
Bonoff gaining ground because of Trump.
What’s striking about the totality of the polling on the Democratic
side is how it fluctuated from a Paulsen lead of 15 points or more earlier
in the summer to Bonoff up by 2 points and then Paulsen up again by 16
points a week before Election Day.
Democratic strategists believed that the lack of public GOP polling
confirmed their own findings. But Republican polling consistently
showed the congressman with a significant advantage of between 11-15
points, with few exceptions. They just didn’t release much of their data.
Trump strategy worked until it didn’t. What might be most
worrisome for Democrats is how confident they were in their ability
to connect Paulsen and other GOP candidates to Trump based on the
“informed ballot” in their surveys.
“But you can have things that test well but don’t move people to
vote,” Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, who was not involved in
Minnesota 3, told The Washington Post after the election.
The DCCC has been criticized for focusing too narrowly on Trump.
“Had we seen more accurate numbers of what that turnout looked like,
we may have made some different spending decisions and we may not have
talked as much about Trump in some of these districts,” said HMP Executive
Director Ali Lapp in a post-election story by Simone Pathé in Roll Call.
DCCC operatives are quick to point out that they used specific,
non-Trump attacks when available, such as New Jersey’s 5th District,
Florida’s 7th, and California’s 49th, but admitted they didn’t have a silver
bullet against Paulsen. At least Trump gave them a chance where there
was previously a closed door, and his performance in the suburbs were
an easier reach than targeting more conservative areas.
They believe there was an opportunity to highlight Paulsen’s
conservative record in the Legislature and thread a needle of not
trying to turn the congressman into Trump, but demonstrate how he
would be part of a complicit Congress with a President Trump. It just
wasn’t effective enough. But it wasn’t for lack of effort considering the
committee’s $4 million in ads which began in early September.
Results are in the eye of the beholder. Perception of Paulsen’s
victory is shaded by partisanship. Republicans believe the
congressman’s resounding victory is evidence of his moderate brand and
ability to demonstrate his independence from Trump.
Democrats admit that Paulsen has a moderate image in the vein of
former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. But Democrats believe their strategy was
working until Paulsen started unloading on Bonoff’s tax votes, based on
8
December 20, 2016
the closing they saw in their polls.
In a post-election memo, DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan mentioned
the race in a list of districts where connecting House Republicans to
Trump moved races toward Democrats. Democrats lost six of the eight
seats Lujan mentioned, and lost them by an average of 7.5 points.
Candidates matter. Democrats’ view of Bonoff has evolved from being
the best candidate to the best they could get under the time constraints.
Democrats were aware that her record included a $1 billion tax increase
vote, but didn’t expect her to magnify the problem during an August
debate. She said, “I have repeatedly been willing to vote for unpopular
taxes.” Paulsen pounced, even if the quote was partial and out of context,
and Democrats debate whether the vote or comment did the most damage.
Bonoff’s loss could guide Democrats’ recruiting in future cycles.
Successful Democratic challengers such as Josh Gottheimer in New Jersey,
Stephanie Murphy in Florida, and Jackie Rosen didn’t have voting records
to defend, while top recruits who held office such as Bonoff, Monica
Vernon of Iowa and Emily Cain in Maine struggled and lost.
Unlike Bonoff, the latter pair had to run in districts Trump carried at
the top of the ticket, but their records made it easier for Republicans to
turn the conversation away from Trump. And in Minnesota, moderate
voters were scared more by a candidate with a record of raising taxes
than a candidate who might not stand up to Trump, who they didn’t
believe would become president, according to a Democratic strategist.
If Democrats make another run at Paulsen in 2018, they will probably
look for a different challenger.
The political environment matters. There is evidence that there
was something bigger going on in Minnesota. Republicans held the
competitive 2nd District with an imperfect candidate. DFLers failed to
take back the state House and lost the state Senate. And Clinton won
statewide by less than 2 points.
In the weeks before the election, MNSure, the state insurance
exchange made the news as the insurance companies threatened to leave
the plan. Separately, DFL Gov. Mark Dayton said the Affordable Care
Act was “no longer affordable.” And local Democrats drew negative
headlines after being spotted in luxury suites at the Minnesota Vikings’
new football stadium, funded in part by taxpayer money.
None of the issues were specifically connected to Bonoff, but created
an environment that made it difficult to cut through with a message.
Democratic strategists don’t specifically blame FBI Director James Comey
for Bonoff’s loss, considering Clinton still carried the 3rd District by a wide
margin (albeit with less than 51 percent). But it’s still one of the first thing
Democrats mention when trying to cope with the broader Nov. 8 losses.
The Bottom Line. Even with the volatility of the presidential race, the
3rd District contest featured some campaign fundamentals. Paulsen used
his fundraising advantage to exploit his opponent’s record.
“I don’t know if she ever could have won,” admitted one Bonoff ally
in a recent interview. Democrats believed that the millions of dollars in
combined Republican spending was evidence that GOP strategists were
worried. But it was more likely they just wanted to make sure there were
no surprises and Democratic attacks didn’t go unanswered.
Looking ahead to next cycle, tt will be hard for Democrats to walk
away from a district that Clinton won by nearly 10 points. But as long as
Paulsen is there, it won’t be easy.
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections