MC2 Simulation of Blue Mtns Ecoregion, OR
John Kim
USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station & WWETAC
David Conklin
Common Futures, LLC
Becky Kerns
USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station
Jessica Halofsky
University of Washington
G. Stephen (Bear) Pitts
Oregon State University
Ray Drapek
USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station
Michelle Day
Oregon State University
MC2 Dynamic Vegetation Model
Elevation
Soils
Biogeography
Fire
Biogeochemistry
MAPSS biogeography
Hydrology Carbon Vegetation
Climate
Monthly
Time step
Fire
Simulates biogeochem. response of plant func. types to climate change
ΔT (°C)
Blue Mtns Ecoregion Future Scenarios
Historical Average (1979-2008) to Future Average (2071-2100)
ΔT v. ΔP
4
“Hot”: HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5
3
“Reference”: CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5
GCM data were
selected to
capture range of
variability among
GCM’s;
downscaled to
30 arcsec (800m)
for the Blues.
2
“Wet”: NORESM1-M RCP8.5
1
HAD
CSI
NOR
MRI
“Cool”: MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5
0
-5%
0%
5%
10%
ΔP
15%
20%
ΔT
3.0°C (5.5°F)
2.6°C (4.7°F)
2.3°C (4.1°F)
1.4°C (2.6°F)
ΔP
-1%
2%
19%
2%
Blue Mtns Ecoregion: Temperature Projections
8
7
6
HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5
4
CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5
NORESM1-M RCP8.5
3
MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5
Historical
2
1
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
T (°C)
5
Year
Projected Average Seasonal Precipitation
Blue Mountain Ecoregion, 2071-2100
120
Precipitation (mm)
100
80
HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5
CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5
60
NORESM1-M RCP8.5
MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5
40
Historical (1979-2008)
20
0
DJF
MAM
JJA
Season
SON
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Historical
MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5
CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5
HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5
2080
2060
2040
2020
2000
1980
1960
1940
1920
NORESM1-M RCP8.5
1900
NPP (gC m-2 yr-1)
NPP
Year
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Year
2080
2060
2040
2020
2000
1980
1960
1940
1920
0
1900
2080
2060
2040
2020
2000
1960
1940
1920
1980
Year
Forest Carbon (gC m-2)
Forest Carbon
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1900
# Fires Simulated (yr-1)
Fire Activity
Historical (1979-2008)
MC2 Vegetation Type
Subalpine forest
Cool, moist forest
Dry forest
Ponderosa pine, xeric
Woodland
Shrubland
Hot dry shrubland
C3 grassland
C3/C4 grassland
CSIRO-MK360 “Reference”
RCP8.5 (2071-2100)
State Boundary
I-84 Highway
National Forest
City (clockwise from top: Pendleton,
La Grande, Baker City Bend, Prineville)
Historical (1979-2008)
MC2 Vegetation Type
Subalpine forest
Cool, moist forest
Dry forest
Ponderosa pine, xeric
Woodland
Shrubland
Hot dry shrubland
C3 grassland
C3/C4 grassland
HADMGEM2-ES “Hot”
RCP8.5 (2071-2100)
Historical (1979-2008)
MC2 Vegetation Type
Subalpine forest
Cool, moist forest
Dry forest
Ponderosa pine, xeric
Woodland
Shrubland
Hot dry shrubland
C3 grassland
C3/C4 grassland
MRI-CGCM3 “Cool”
RCP8.5 (2071-2100)
Historical (1979-2008)
MC2 Vegetation Type
Subalpine forest
Cool, moist forest
Dry forest
Ponderosa pine, xeric
Woodland
Shrubland
Hot dry shrubland
C3 grassland
C3/C4 grassland
NORESM1-M “Wet”
RCP8.5 (2071-2100)
No. of Projections Resulting in Vegetation Type Shift
Historical (1979-2008) to Future (2071-2100)
Veg Type Shift Historical (1979-2008) to Future (2071-2100)
shrubland
grassland
forest
HADGEM2-ES
Climate Projection (RCP8.5)
“Hot”
CSIRO-MK360
Bluebunch
wheatgrass - Sandberg bluegrass
C3/C4 grassland
Bluebunch
wheatgrass - Sandberg bluegrass
C3 grassland
Salt
shrub, upland
Hotdesert
dry shrubland
NORESM1-M
Wyoming
big sagebrush, without juniper
Shrubland
Wyoming
big sagebrush, with juniper
Woodland
Ponderosa
pine
xeric
Ponderosa
pine,
xeric
Douglas-fir
Dry forestdry
MRI-CGCM3
Grand
cool,forest
moist
Cool, fir,
moist
“Cool”
Subalpine
fir,forest
cold/dry
Subalpine
HISTORICAL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Proportion of Ecoregion
grassland
shrubland
forest
90%
100%
Change in Total Veg Carbon,
1979-2008 to 2071-2100
“Reference Warming
Scenario”: CSIRO-MK360
RCP8.5
Summary
• Under RCP8.5 scenario, climate will be hotter & wetter.
• Wetter winters. Hotter & drier summers.
• Vegetation simulations suggest:
–
–
–
–
–
Loss of subalpine forests are likely
Forests vulnerable to conversion to woodlands & shrublands
Conversion of shrublands to hot shrublands, expansion of grasslands
Higher productivity + incr. fire => lower carbon stocks
Stable forests still lose carbon stocks
Acknowledgements: Ayn Shlisky, Becky Gravenmier, Karen Bennet-Jones (USFS R6); Myrica
McCune, Chris Ringo (OSU); Phil Mote, David Rupp (OCCRI/OSU); Dominique Bachelet, Ken
Ferschweiler, Tim Sheehan (CBI); Miles Hemstrom (INR); Ron Neilson, Jim Lenihan (USFS,
retired).