FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
GLOBAL
EXTREMISM
MONITOR
Tracking Religious Extremism
and Efforts to Counter It
FEBRUARY 2016
ISIS KILLS SIX TIMES AS
MANY AS AL-QAEDA
(PAGE 4)
ISIS Destabilises
North Africa
(PAGE 6)
BOKO HARAM EXPLOITS
FEMALE SUICIDE BOMBERS
(PAGE 7)
Resurgent Taliban
Violence Makes its
Mark
(PAGE 8)
1
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
Executive Summary
291 ATTACKS IN 23 COUNTRIES:
THE COST OF EXTREMISM
In February 2016, attacks by jihadi fighters caused at least
1,372 deaths in 19 countries.1
alone, we recorded 38 attacks by al-Qaeda affiliate alShabaab.
In 16 countries, a further 1,539 people were killed as states
battled extremists.2
The world’s attention on the Syrian civil war rightly noted
the fall in violence as a partial truce came into effect at the
end of the month. In fact, few attacks in February made
headlines like January’s high-profile assaults in Jakarta and
Istanbul. Yet globally, the deadly threat of religious extremism remained.
Altogether, in February at least 3,405 lives were lost as
some 22 religious extremist groups instigated violence
across the world and security forces battled to defeat
them. Among the dead were 1,620 militants, 660 members of the security forces, and 936 civilians.
On 9 February, at least 56 people were killed when two
women detonated suicide belts in a refugee camp in
northeastern Nigeria.4 On 10 February, a double suicide
bombing in north Cameroon killed more than 60.5 On 21
February, 140 civilians were killed in two car blasts in Homs
and Damascus;6 while on 23 February, 47 were killed in
clashes between ISIS and local militias in Libya. On 28
February, at least 73 were killed in an ISIS-claimed suicide
blast in Sadr City in Iraq.7
The Centre on Religion & Geopolitics (CRG) has been
tracking violent and non-violent extremism, and responses
to it, throughout the globe. In February, we recorded 647
incidents in 54 countries, including both extremist and
counter-extremist activities. This included major non-state
counter-extremism efforts, such as the launch by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies of a commission
on countering violent extremism.3
We tracked media reports on violent religious extremism
in February to show the extent of its brutality. We coded
violent extremism, including attacks, hostage taking, and
property damage, as well as non-violent incidents.
Our findings are a low estimate, based on open source data
in English. CRG’s analysts were careful to include only
incidents that we were sure counted as religious extremism.
We also tracked steps taken by states against violent extremists to understand how much is being done to stop this
scourge. Raids on extremist groups as part of counter-extremist campaigns saw significant gains against Boko Haram in Nigeria, ISIS in Afghanistan, al-Shabaab in Somalia,
and Islamist militants in the Philippines. More than 500
suspected militants were arrested worldwide.
As in January, much of the violence we recorded was outside the Middle East and North Africa. Only 52 per cent
was in the region. Thirty-four per cent was in sub-Saharan
Africa, and 13 per cent in Central and South Asia. ISIS was
by far the deadliest extremist group, killing at least 1,123 in
at least 69 attacks. By contrast, al-Qaeda killed 176 people
in 43 assaults.
Fewer than half of the global fatalities in the battle against
religious extremism occurred in the Middle East and North
Africa; 39 per cent were in sub-Saharan Africa. In Somalia
4 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/world/africa/suicide-bomber-girls-kill-58-in-nigerian-refugee-camp.html?_r=0
1 Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Nigeria, Mali, Cameroon, Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Israel/Palestine, Tunisia, Chad, Lebanon,
Philippines, and Russia.
5 http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFL8N15P5BA?feedType=RSS&feedName=nigeriaNews
2 Nigeria, Somalia, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, India, Afghanistan, Saudi
Arabia, Kenya, Philippines, Iraq, Tunisia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and
Lebanon.
6 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35624654
7 http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-iraq-death-toll-climbs-73-wake-daesh-suicidebombing-shia-market-baghdad-1546573
3 http://csis.org/event/csis-commission-countering-violent-extremism
2
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
February continuing in the same vein. Al-Qaeda affiliate
al-Shabaab killed 153 people, including 107 civilians, in 38
attacks in the country in February.
Our data showed:
1 IN FIVE COUNTRIES, VIOLENT EXTREMISM
KILLED MORE THAN 100 CIVILIANS
Afghanistan saw an uptick in Taliban activity. With 13 violent incidents, it was one of the ten countries most affected
by extremism in February.
Although 55 per cent of the 936 civilian casualties recorded in February’s Global Extremism Monitor occurred in the
Middle East and North Africa, three out of the five countries that saw the most civilian deaths were in sub-Saharan
Africa.
ISIS’ growth in Libya continued, attracting new recruits,
and destabilising the region. Our data showed ISIS in Libya
was involved in over 54 violent incidents, more than Boko
Haram in Nigeria and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Boko Haram was responsible for a quarter of all civilian
deaths linked to extremism, with the number in Cameroon
and Nigeria almost equal at 108 and 111 respectively. On
the other side of the continent, Somalia was once again
among the deadliest countries for civilians, with 107 killed.
There were a number of suicide blasts, many carried out
by women, in sub-Saharan Africa in February. Our data
showed seven Boko Haram suicide attacks in markets and
refugee camps killing at least 238 people in Cameroon,
Chad, and Nigeria. On 9 February, two female suicide
bombers killed at least 56 in Dikwa, in Nigeria’s Borno
state.8 A third bomber changed her mind at the eleventh
hour, and turned herself into the security forces.9
However, Iraq and Syria dominated. Our data showed 147
and 227 civilian deaths in those countries respectively.
ISIS KILLED OVER SIX TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS
AL-QAEDA
2
The overwhelming majority of activity in Central and
South Asia – a full 71 per cent – was state counter-extremism. This shows the urgency with which governments
across the region are responding to religious extremist violence. For the first time, Pakistan officially acknowledged
the threat posed by ISIS.10
Amid debate over whether ISIS or al-Qaeda poses a greater long-term threat, our February data showed that ISIS
was responsible for far more violence than al-Qaeda and its
affiliates in the month.
When all ISIS affiliated groups are taken into account, the
organisation was involved in at least 69 attacks, causing
over 1,123 deaths. This was almost as many as the total
deaths stemming from all state counter-extremism efforts
across the globe, which amounted to at least 1,539 deaths.
In comparison, the Global Extremism Monitor recorded
176 deaths from 43 assaults by al-Qaeda and its affiliates
throughout February.
In more than 20 countries, our data also captured 49 cases
of non-state actors taking steps to counter extremism. As
the Monitor continues, month by month, we will expand
our sources, looking more at civil society efforts against
extremist violence.
If we compare February’s data with January’s findings, the
consistently high level of extremist violence becomes clear.
In January, we recorded nearly 3,000 fatalities as a result
of extremism.11 In February, we recorded nearly 3,400.
AT LEAST 25 MILITARIES BATTLED EXTREMISTS
ALONE OR IN COALITIONS
3
Our data showed at least 44 countries involved in some
form of counter-extremist activity. Of these, at least 25
used military force against extremists, either alone or in coalition. Four international groupings – the US-led anti-ISIS
coalition in Iraq and Syria, the Saudi-led coalition against
Houthi forces in Yemen, the Islamic Military Alliance, and
the African Union mission fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia –
were active in two regions.
State-counter extremism efforts caused at least 1,539
deaths, according to our February findings. Some 1,290
of the casualties were extremists, 29 were members of
security forces, 158 were civilians and the remainder were
unknown.
8 http://globalnews.ca/news/2509598/2-female-bombers-kill-56-in-nigerianrefugee-camp/
9 http://bigstory.ap.org/article/eb20813e07b94a50bc2e9ef608948992/nigerian-suicide-bomber-gets-cold-feet-refuses-kill
10 http://www.dawn.com/news/1165415
After Somalia’s violent start to the year, our data showed
11 http://tonyblairfaithfoundation.org/religion-geopolitics/reports-analysis/report/
global-extremism-january-2016
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FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
Global Trends
IN FIVE COUNTRIES, VIOLENT
EXTREMISM KILLED MORE THAN 100
CIVILIANS
Boko Haram poses to the Lake Chad region. On the other
side of the continent, al-Shabaab killed 107 civilians in
Somalia.
The second edition of the Global Extremism Monitor found
that five countries lost more than 100 civilians to religious
extremist violence.
Meanwhile, Libya, Afghanistan and Yemen all saw more
than 50 civilian deaths at the hands of extremist groups.
1
ISIS KILLED OVER SIX TIMES AS MANY
PEOPLE AS AL-QAEDA
2
Syria, where a ‘cessation of hostilities’ was declared at the
end of February, saw the highest number of civilian deaths
from extremist attacks, over 227. In fact, Syria was the
only country with over 200 deaths recorded. Almost 150
civilians lost their lives at the hands of ISIS in neighbouring
Iraq, according to our data.
There has been much debate over which global jihadi
movement poses a greater long-term threat: decades-old
al-Qaeda and its affiliates or the newer contender ISIS.
Our February data shows that, when it comes to attacks,
one is certainly outdoing the other.
Table 1: Top 10 Most Deadly Countries for Civilians
Country
Civilian Fatalities
Syria
227
Iraq
147
Nigeria
111
Cameroon
108
Somalia
107
Libya
78
Afghanistan
60
Yemen
59
Chad
11
Pakistan
10
The Monitor found that ISIS and its affiliates carried out at
least 69 attacks in February, compared to 43 by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. The level of destruction these caused
demonstrates even greater disparity. Our data showed
176 deaths from al-Qaeda attacks in February, while ISIS
attacks killed over six times as many, with at least 1,123 fatalities. ISIS in Iraq and Syria was behind at least 28 attacks
and 690 fatalities.
FIG. 1
AL-QAEDA VS. ISIS: ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
GLOBE
Al-Qaeda and Affiliates
ISIS and Affiliates
1200
1000
800
600
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
400
200
Though 55 per cent of civilian fatalities took place in the
Middle East and North Africa, three of the five countries
that lost more than 100 civilians to extremism were in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
0
Total
Fatalities
Civilians
Killed
Security Forces
Killed
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
Boko Haram attacks led to a full quarter of the global
figure, with the number of casualties in Cameroon almost
as high as that of neighbouring Nigeria, where the group is
based. This serves as a reminder of the transnational threat
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FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
The deadliest affiliates of both al-Qaeda and ISIS were in
sub-Saharan Africa. ISIS-linked Boko Haram killed 272
people in 17 attacks. Al-Qaeda’s affiliate al-Shabaab in
Somalia killed 153 in 38 attacks, our data showed.
Our data also showed that 1,539 people were killed in
state-counter extremism efforts. Some 1,290 were
extremists, 29 were members of security forces, 158 were
civilians and the remainder were unknown.
There may be little ideological disparity between the jihadi
organisations, but our findings suggest ISIS is proving the
more destructive of the two. The lower number of incidents
of violent extremism by al-Qaeda and its affiliates, with the
exception of al-Shabaab, may also be explained somewhat
by the alternative methods the group uses to win and
sustain followers. Al-Qaeda uses soft tactics to generate
on-the-ground support. ISIS, meanwhile, has been far
more ruthless in its rise to prominence in war-torn Yemen,
Iraq, Syria, and Libya.
There were three military attacks in which more than 100
fatalities were recorded. The Nigerian military instigated
two of these, and the Cameroonian military instigated one.
FIG. 2 INCIDENTS OF VIOLENT EXTREMISM ACROSS
THE GLOBE
Attack
Hostage-Taking
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Somalia
Libya
Iraq
Syria
Afghanistan
Nigeria
Cameroon
Mali
Yemen
Pakistan
Egypt
Bangladesh
AT LEAST 25 COUNTRIES BATTLED
EXTREMISTS ALONE OR IN COALITIONS
3
Our data showed at least 44 countries involved in some
form of counter-extremist activity. Of these, at least 25
used military force against extremists, either alone or in coalition. Four international groupings – the US-led anti-ISIS
coalition in Iraq and Syria, the Saudi-led coalition against
Houthi forces in Yemen, the Islamic Military Alliance, and
the African Union mission fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia –
were active in two regions.
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
5
40
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
Regional Overviews
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
When all incidents are taken into account, at 54 incidents,
according to our data, ISIS in Libya was involved in more
than Boko Haram in Nigeria, 41, and the Taliban in Afghanistan, with 16.
The Middle East and North Africa region dominated our
findings, with 45 per cent of incidents.
In Saudi Arabia, we recorded six incidents of violent religious extremism, including the killing of a retired brigadier
general in the south of the country, which was claimed by
ISIS.12 A day later, Riyadh announced it would resume its
participation in coalition airstrikes against ISIS in Syria.13
ISIS’ presence in Libya continues to grow, attracting new
recruits, and destabilising the region.
INCIDENTS OF VIOLENT EXTREMISM ACROSS
THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
FIG. 3
Attack
Hostage-Taking
0
5
10
15
20
25
Counter-Extremism and Counter-Terrorism
30
Libya
Iraq
Yemen
Syria
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Israel/Palestine
Tunisia
Lebanon
Our data also showed that Libya saw 33 cases of counter-extremism efforts by state actors in February. While
much of this was activity by Libyan military forces, international actors were involved too.
Among their counter-extremism efforts, Libyan forces
were able to push back militants in Benghazi belonging to
ISIS’ Libyan affiliate, as well as Ansar al-Sharia.
ISIS’ growth in the north African nation continued to
prompt responses from neighbours. Tunisian authorities
confirmed they had completed construction of a 200-kilometre-long security wall along part of the border.14
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
ISIS DESTABILISES NORTH AFRICA
Algeria also stepped up border security last month in
preparation for any potential foreign action against ISIS.15
Despite reports that the Obama administration lacked the
appetite for strikes, US jets targeted ISIS in western Libya.
France and Italy also joined in the battle.16
Extremism and Terrorism
The Middle East and North Africa dominated February’s
findings with 288 events recorded, 45 per cent of the
global total. These included 151 attacks, 16 incidents of territorial expansion, and six arrests. The region also accounted
for 46 per cent of all fatalities. This may be attributed to
the established civil wars in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, as well
as escalating violence in Libya.
Saudi Arabia also became increasingly concerned about
the threat posed by jihadi groups like ISIS, according
to our data. Authorities were involved in 15 incidents of
counter-extremism. These included Riyadh announcing a
Despite the dominance of ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, the
Monitor found 14 extremist groups active in the region last
month.
12 http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/isil-claims-killing-of-retired-saudi-officer
13 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/saudi-fighter-jets-deployed-turkey-incirlik-base-160214045639093.html
14 http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/tunisia-completes-200-km-barrier-with-libya-to-stave-off-terror-threat
In Libya, ISIS continued to have a destabilising effect on
the country, as well as its neighbours. Our data recorded
23 incidents of violent extremism there in February at the
hands of the group.
15 http://www.aps.dz/en/algeria/11018-algeria-takes-all-necessary-measures-to-strengthen-border-security
16 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/19/us-airstrikes-target-islamic-state-militants-in-libya
6
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
large-scale military exercise involving allies from the Middle
East, Africa, and South Asia.17 Saudi authorities also made
a number of statements indicating it was willing to deploy
ground troops to combat ISIS in Syria.18
security forces.19 Two double suicide bombings in northern
Cameroon on 10 and 19 February killed more than 80
people between them.20
Boko Haram attacks in Cameroon placed the country
among the world’s 10 most deadly countries for the second
month running, with 118 fatalities in February. Cameroon
was the only country in the list that does not have a homegrown extremist insurgency. Its growing insecurity is largely
spillover from Nigeria.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Somalia experienced the most extremist activity, with at least
38 attacks in February at the hands of al-Qaeda affiliate,
al-Shabaab.
All of al-Shabaab’s 38 attacks recorded in February’s
Monitor were in Somalia, its home turf. These included the
assassination of a former defence minister on 15 February,
the shelling of the presidential palace on 1 February, and
an explosion on 2 February aboard a Somali-owned Daallo
Airlines flight.
Nigeria and Cameroon battled Boko Haram, killing hundreds
of militants in 19 attacks against the group.
THE RELIGIOUS EXTREMIST GROUPS ACTIVE IN
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
FIG. 4
Attack
Hostage-Taking
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mali was the third theatre of extremist activity in sub-Saharan Africa last month. The country continues to suffer
from the collapse of the state in 2012. Timbuktu, Kidal, and
Mopti were the most active areas. Al-Qaeda’s North African affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, remained
active, as were al-Qaeda-inspired groups Ansar Dine and
Emirate of the Sahara.
al-Shabaab
Boko Haram
Unknown Militia
AQIM
Ansar Dine
Emirate of the Sahara
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
Counter-Extremism and Counter-Terrorism
Militaries fighting extremists in the region were overstretched. The African Union mission in Somalia, AMISOM, as well as the Somali and Kenyan militaries pulled
out of towns they had retaken in a number of cases. In eleven incidents, al-Shabaab moved into a town within 24 hours
of state forces leaving. Violence only ensued in one such
case, on 13 February when al-Shabaab retook the village of
Buur Weyn in face of AMISOM resistance.21
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
BOKO HARAM EXPLOITS FEMALE SUICIDE BOMBERS
Extremism and Terrorism
Instability in Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin, Mali, and
Somalia continued in February. Our data showed 147 incidents of extremism and counter-extremism in the region.
Of these, 60 were attacks instigated by extremist groups.
Nigeria and Cameroon’s armies carried out 19 attacks
against Boko Haram, removing them from at least three
areas. In most cases, the group’s forest camps were cleared
of militants, many of whom were killed. In three incidents,
over 100 Boko Haram militants were killed in a single raid.22
In only six incidents were militants arrested.
Boko Haram continued to prey on local communities in
Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin. Though it now largely
operates in informal camps in the northeast of Nigeria,
the group was able to cross borders in the area and used
guerrilla-style attacks.
In Mali, the Malian military and French and UN missions,
not civilians, continued to be the main target of Islamist
violence, but the international mission is hampered by its
lack of an offensive mandate.
A number of suicide bombings took place across sub-Saharan Africa, many of them carried out by women. Seven
Boko Haram suicide attacks in markets and refugee camps
killed at least 238 people in Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria.
On 9 February, two female suicide bombers killed at least
56 in Nigeria’s Borno state. A third bomber changed her
mind at the eleventh hour, and turned herself in to the
19 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35543996
20 http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFL8N15P5BA?feedType=RSS&feedName=nigeriaNews and http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN0VS191
17 http://uk.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-just-launched-a-massive-militaryexercise-2016-2?r=US&IR=T
21 http://goobjoog.com/english/?p=25050
18 See for instance: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-saudi-idUSKCN0VD2KA
22 See for instance: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/world/africa/brutalboko-haram-raid-in-nigeria-kills-as-many-as-100.html?_r=0
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FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA
There were several instances of violence in Kashmir, leaving
over ten Lashkar-e-Taiba militants dead and a number of
Indian troops wounded. In Bangladesh, ISIS claimed to
have beheaded a Hindu priest.25 The government, however,
denied the claim.
Three South Asian groups were among the top ten most
active groups worldwide.
The overwhelming majority of activity in the region – a full 71
per cent – was state counter-extremism efforts.
Counter-Extremism and Counter-Terrorism
The great majority – 71 per cent – of incidents recorded
in Central and South Asia were state counter-extremism
efforts. This shows the urgency with which governments
across the region are viewing religious extremist violence.
Afghanistan and Pakistan were in the top ten globally for
violent extremism.
FIG. 5 INCIDENTS OF COUNTER-EXTREMISM
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA
Attack
Arrest
0
Rhetoric from leaders affirmed this priority. For the first
time, Pakistan officially acknowledged the threat posed
by ISIS. The Intelligence Bureau’s Director described the
group as “an emerging threat to the country,” and claimed
that ISIS coordinated with the Pakistani Taliban in its operations.26 The Pakistan Ulema Council, a Muslim organisation, condemned ISIS as “Khawarij,” referencing an early
deviant Islamic sect.27
Statment
5
10
15
20
25
30
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, however,
refused to explicitly name the threat posed by ISIS, despite
the group claiming responsibility for beheading the priest.
“No ISIS exists in Bangladesh, but a few homegrown outfits
in the name of Islam are conducting terrorist activities and
involved in various crimes,” she said in February.28
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
RESURGENT TALIBAN VIOLENCE MAKES ITS MARK
Extremism and Terrorism
Some 415 extremism-related deaths were recorded for the
month of February in Central and South Asia, 12 per cent
of the global total. Afghanistan saw the highest number
of incidents of violent extremism with 13. In neighbouring
Pakistan, meanwhile, we logged half this number. This put
Afghanistan and Pakistan in the top ten of countries affected by extremism.
The country did see a major clampdown on the Jamaat-e-Islami Islamist group, which is allied to the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Over 60 members were
arrested across the country. Intelligence officials expressed
concern about militant groups developing strongholds in
the Chittagong Hill Tracts region.29
Meanwhile, in Pakistan security forces claimed to have broken a “nexus” between al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a prominent militant group known
for sectarian attacks, in the port city of Karachi. The military claimed to have foiled a plan to break the killer of US
journalist Daniel Pearl out of jail by militants who had been
involved in major attacks on Pakistani air bases, an airport
and police installations.30
The depth of the extremist threat in South Asia is demonstrated by the fact that groups based in three different
countries in the region made their way into the top ten
global groups involved in extremism-related incidents.
These were the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban, and Jamaatul Mujahidin Bangladesh.
Resurgent Taliban violence continued to dominate the
extremist scene in Afghanistan. February began with a
suicide bombing at a police headquarters in Kabul that killed
21 people.23 The group went on to carry out at least nine such
attacks last month, according to the data. Further, according
to UN data released last month, in 2015 Afghanistan saw its
highest number of civilian casualties since records began.24
These arrests came as troops began their last phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, a two-year campaign to clear militants
25 http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/02/23/militants-arrested-over-beheading-of-hindu-priest-in-bangladesh/
26 http://www.dawn.com/news/1165415
27 http://www.baaghi.tv/ulema-declare-daesh-khawarij/
28 http://newagebd.net/203852/no-is-but-local-outfits-exist-in-bangladesh-pm/
23 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35459074
29 http://tribune.com.pk/story/1044657/terrorists-regrouping-daish-an-emerging-threat-to-pakistan-says-ib-chief
24 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/14/un-reports-stark-rise-innumber-of-afghan-civilian-casualties-in-2015
30 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/pakistan-foils-plot-free-daniel-pearlkiller-160212101937857.html
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FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
from North Waziristan strongholds.31 This shows Pakistan’s
increasingly proactive role in regional security, as the US
cuts back its own counter-extremism operations in those
countries.
Islamist militant group Abu Sayyaf, which operates in the
southern Philippines, was thought to have been behind
the second attack. Three soldiers from the Philippines
military were killed when Abu Sayyaf fighters assaulted an
army camp on 20 February. Ensuing clashes also killed 20
militants.34
In Tajikistan, 13 members of the Islamic Renaissance Party,
which the regime considers an extremist group, went on
trial accused of stoking unrest that led to the death of 50
people last year.32
Al-Qaeda linked Jemaah Islamiyya in Indonesia, responsible for attacks including the 2002 Bali bombings that
killed 202, has been dormant for a number of years. But
according to a February interview with members, Jemaah
Islamiyya is once again active. This comes amid concerns
over extremism in the country following January’s ISISclaimed attacks in Jakarta.
EAST AND SOUTH EAST ASIA
In the Philippines a ceasefire is holding despite a stalling
peace process, but attacks by Abu Sayyaf continue.
Counter-Extremism and Counter-Terrorism
Indonesia ramped up counter-terrorism efforts, detaining
over 50 suspected extremists.
In total, our February Monitor recorded 16 incidents of
state and non-state counter-extremism last month. Two
major factors formed part of these efforts. The first was the
continued negotiations to push forward the peace process in Muslim Mindanao in the southern Philippines. The
second was Indonesian moves to counter the threat from
Islamist extremists.
INCIDENTS OF COUNTER-EXTREMISM ACROSS
EAST AND SOUTH EAST ASIA
FIG. 6
Attack
Arrest
0
Statement
5
10
15
20
25
30
Indonesia
Philippines
China
Malaysia
Thailand
The southern Philippines suffered a set back to the peace
process in February when the Bangsamoro Basic Law failed
to pass through the Philippines Congress. It was no surprise
to many commentators that the law, which would provide
statutory force to the 2014 peace deal for a semi-autonomous region of Muslim Mindanao, fell down. The Moro
Islamic Liberation Front, the main Islamist group in the
region, urged all sides to uphold the ongoing ceasefire.
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
DOZENS OF EXTREMIST SUSPECTS ARRESTED
The Philippine government instigated four counter-extremism incidents last month, according to our data. These
included two significant attacks on Abu Sayyaf, which killed
a total of over 60 of its members.
Extremism and Terrorism
There were no major attacks by extremist groups in East
and South East Asia in February, according to our data.
The two recorded incidents of violent religious extremism
occurred in the Philippines and Thailand.
In Indonesia in February, the Monitor recorded the arrests
of 55 suspected militants. These were linked to more
planned attacks in the capital Jakarta and other parts of
the country. Authorities were also reportedly drawing up
plans for tougher anti-terror laws on the heels of January’s
Jakarta attacks.
One bombing on 27 February was instigated by an
unknown suspected Islamist group in southern Thailand.
Seven civilians were wounded.33 Attacks in southern Thailand are very rarely claimed by any group. The latter half of
2015 saw increasing numbers of attacks, part of a continuing years-old Islamist insurgency.
31 http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/324515-COAS-orders-to-launch-finalphase-of-operation-Zar
32 https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/asia/2016/02/09/Banned-Islamic-opposition-goes-on-trial-in-Tajikistan.html
33 http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/car-bomb-injures-7-in-thailands-rebellioussouth-1281898
34 http://www.voanews.com/content/muslim-militants-kill-more-than-20-filipino-troops-in-attack/3203349.html
9
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
An ISIS-claimed attack in the North Caucasus region of
Dagestan on 15 February killed two Russian policemen, and
wounded 17 others. ISIS has attacked in the region before,
including in December last year. The group also accepted a
pledge of allegiance from militant groups there.
Counter-extremism efforts dominate across both regions,
with a number of arrests, and a push against ISIS in Libya.
FIG. 7 INCIDENTS OF COUNTER-EXTREMISM ACROSS
EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
Arrest
Counter-Extremism and Counter-Terrorism
Statement
0
5
10
15
20
25
Counter-extremist efforts dominate the month of February across Europe and North America. In total there were
45 incidents, 28 in Europe and 17 in North America. These
were recorded for nine countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Russia, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada.
30
United States
United Kingdom
Russia
Germany
Spain
Italy
Bulgaria
Canada
Much of these counter-extremist efforts were focused on
containing the spread of ISIS. Our February data showed
there were over 40 arrests across Europe – in Spain,
Belgium and Russia – of people suspected of being linked
to ISIS. In one incident, police in Brussels detained 10 suspected of operating an ISIS recruitment ring.35 In Valencia
and Alicante, Spain, police arrested seven members of a
suspected ISIS cell.
Source: Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, Global Extremism Monitor,
February 2016
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
A PUSH AGAINST ISIS IN LIBYA
Our data showed governments across the regions addressed concerns over ISIS’ growing presence in Libya.
British counter-terrorism officers said in February that
ISIS’ foothold in Libya could put the UK at risk of further attacks. The US government said it was seeking 200
million dollars for counter-extremism operations in Libya
alone. Additionally, Italy agreed to allow US forces to use a
base in Sicily to attack ISIS positions in Libya.
Extremism and Terrorism
Extremism continued in other parts of the world last
month, but Europe and North America were once again
quiet, according to our data. We recorded just four extremist incidents, all in Europe. In both Europe and North
America, Russia was the only country to suffer a violent
attack in February.
35 http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-security-belgium-idUKKCN0VP0T6
10
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
Methodology
T
he Centre on Religion & Geopolitics’ (CRG) Global Extremism
Monitor draws together the best
publicly available information in
English every month on the extent
of religious extremism and responses
to it around the world. The primary
focus of the Monitor is on religious
extremism and related activities,
whether violent or non-violent, and
the ways in which it is being tackled
globally. It is collected using a wide
range of open source data.
CRITERIA
We track attacks and attempted
attacks; plots; victims (killed and
wounded); perpetrators (killed and
wounded); property damage; convictions for religious extremism; reports
of foreign fighters in extremist militant groups; membership and activities of domestic militant groups; and
membership and activities of non-violent religious extremist groups. We
also look at government responses to
extremism. This includes statements
made by officials, diplomatic moves,
and arrests of suspected extremists.
We cover those who advocate legal
restrictions on religious groups, general application of religious law or
religious cultural standards, and the
promotion of hate speech. In addition, the Monitor looks at key political
events shaping counter-extremism
efforts.
We only record extremism where
there is a known religious element or
interaction. If the religious link for an
extremist or violent incident is ambiguous or non-existent, we do not
include it
When referring to extremists from
different religious groups we try to use
common terminology. This means, for
instance, that on some occasions the
term ‘nationalist’ may appear rather
than ‘extremist,’ or alternatively another term may be used. We define
these in our glossary below.
COVERAGE
The Global Extremism Monitor provides an overview of the extent of religious extremism and related activity,
and efforts to counter it, across the
world, month by month. Our findings, based on open source data, give
a general picture of global extremism
and responses. We draw from global
and regional sources, as well as some
databases that focus on a particular
country.
We are aware that many of the reports we use are news-driven, which
in itself presents limitations as some
conflicts or activities are under-reported. We have tried as far as possible to include official government
reports on incidents to ensure our
selection of sources is well-rounded.
Building up our sources is a work in
progress. We will continue to add to
these over time in order to generate
the most definitive picture we can
each month. This will include using more regional sources, as well as
sources that monitor and measure
particular forms of religious extremism, such as anti-Semitism, and other
specific kinds of religious extremist
violence.
DATA GATHERING /
SOURCES
We gather data throughout the
month. Each day we log relevant incidents that fit our criteria. We record
the country; region; incident type;
instigator type; instigator name; respondent type; respondent name;
group; details of the incident; date;
victims killed/wounded; perpetrators
killed/wounded; any qualifying or
quantifying notes; type of attack; details on the location; and the name of,
and link to sources. Wherever possible
we cite two sources for each incident.
We draw together material on the following lines:
•
athering daily news incidents
G
from media sources and other
credible organisations. We use
this source as a check to ensure
we are capturing as much regional data as we can. Aside from the
CRG daily news brief Religion &
Geopolitics Today,36 we look at regional media sources separately
as a final check for each region.
•
Gathering daily news stories
and incidents from the CRG
global daily news brief, Religion
& Geopolitics Today. This source
collects stories on religion and
conflict daily across every region
of the world. It draws its content
from the media, international
organisations, governments and
data gathering organisations.
36 http://tonyblairfaithfoundation.org/foundation/
newsletter
11
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
•
•
Gathering daily news stories and
incidents from global databases. This source uses information
from organisations that gather
data on a particular subject area
via their own methodologies,
such as the SITE37 and TRAC38
databases. Their full methodologies are published on their websites
Gathering daily news stories
and incidents from regional databases. This secondary source
draws upon regional providers
that gather data on incidents of
terrorism and extremism. Our
selection of regional sources is
limited at present, but will grow
as new resources become available. Examples of sources in this
category include the ACLED
database,39 which collates manifestations of political tensions,
conflicts, and violence by state
and non-state actors, including
incidents of terrorism, across
Africa and Asia. We also use
country-based databases where
we can, such as the Nigeria Security Tracker.40 Their full methodologies are published on their
websites.
•
•
athering daily news and inciG
dents from government institutions and organisations. This
helps us verify figures such as
number killed or wounded. We
use this primarily at the end of
each month to check our figures.
hecking daily news stories via
C
Google alerts, and daily media
monitoring. This source provides
a check against our other sources.
VERIFICATION
At the end of each month, we verify
every incident we have recorded. This
includes cross-checking duplications,
casualty figures, and inconsistency
across the dataset.
In cases of inconsistency, we will take
the highest number given for those
killed, or an official figure from a government source. For those wounded,
there is very often an inconsistency
in reporting, so we take the highest
number given, or will not include a
figure at all if reports state the number of wounded in very general terms.
We will assess the verification process
and methodology and adapt it as nec-
37 https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/
38 http://www.trackingterrorism.org/
39 http://www.acleddata.com/
40 http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483
12
essary, month by month. All changes
will be noted within this methodology
note in future editions.
REPORTING PERIOD
Our monthly reporting period extends from the first day of each calendar month to the last.
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
Codebook
INCIDENT TYPE
place or has yet to occur.
Arrest: An incident involving the arrest, detention, or release from detention of one or more individuals.
Propaganda: A statement or publication by an individual or group (including extremists) that lauds a group
or individual’s ideology and activities,
and attempts to persuade others to
move towards that position, or to justify their ideology and/or activities.
Attack: An encounter between two
or more organised (state and/or nonstate) groups or individuals involving
violence or the threat of violence,
where one side has initiated violence
against another. Incidents can also involve destruction or damage of property.
Clash: A contentious and/or violent
encounter between two or more
organised (state and/or non-state)
groups or individuals that developed
spontaneously, or where it is unclear
whether one side initiated violence
against another.
Diplomatic: An incident, agreement,
action, or announcement involving
the governments of two or more
states and/or their ministries or agencies, including agreements, sales of
arms, formation of coalitions, technical or military training missions, and
other bilateral or multilateral meetings or treaties.
Hostage: An incident involving the
capture or kidnapping of one or more
individuals against their own free will,
or the process of the release.
Judicial: An incident pertaining to judicial decisions or actions, including
the sentencing or release of individuals or groups, or changes in law.
Plot: A plan, preparation, or activities
undertaken in order to carry out an
attack that did not ultimately take
Radicalisation: Incidents of individual
or group movement towards extremist views and activities, or encouragement by others towards extremist
views and activities.
Security Forces: An incident or activity involving non-violent actions of a
security service (i.e. military and police). Where an incident involving security forces leads to violence it will be
categorised as a clash or attack.
Statement: Statement (by a person,
group, organisation, government, or
other) of intent, achievement, opinion, facts, policy, or discovery without
tangible outcomes, specific aims, projects, or other result.
Territorial Expansion: An action or
strategy by a state or non-state actor
to take over an area of land or water,
or broaden and expand a territory
deemed to be under its ownership.
INSTIGATOR /
RESPONDENT TYPES
Activist: A group or individual involved
in promoting a specific cause or pushing for increased attention for a group
or issue.
Anti-Semitic: An individual or organisation which promotes hatred of,
13
prejudice against or discrimination
against Jews.
Buddhist Extremist: A group or individual acting on behalf, or in the stated interest of, a Buddhist group or ideology
that promotes the rights, activities, and
beliefs of Buddhism at the expense of
other groups, ideologies, and activities.
Christian Extremist: A group or individual acting on behalf, or in the
stated interest of, a Christian group
or ideology that promotes the rights,
activities, and beliefs of Christians at
the expense of other groups, ideologies, and activities.
Civilian: An individual who is not on
active duty in the military or police,
and who is not part of a belligerent
group in a conflict.
Educational: A place of teaching,
whether a school, college, university
or other teaching institution. Can be
an informal setting.
Ethnic: A group or individual acting on
behalf, or in the stated interest of, a
specific ethnic or tribal affiliation.
Governmental: All branches of national or state government, including
intelligence services.
Hate Speech: The advocacy of hatred,
prejudice, repression, or intimidation
of a specific group of people based on
nationality, race or religion.
Hindu Nationalist: A group or individual acting on behalf, or in the stated
interest of, a Hindu group or ideology
that promotes the rights, activities,
and beliefs of Hindus at the expense of
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
other groups, ideologies, and activities.
International Organisation: An organisation with global scope and/or,
membership.
Islamist Sunni: A group or individual
acting on behalf, or in the stated interest of, an Islamist group or ideology
that follows Sunni Islamic tenets.
Islamist Shia: A group or individual
acting on behalf, or in the stated interest of, an Islamist group or ideology
that follows Shia Islamic tenets.
Islamic Court: A court that follows an
interpretation of Islamic sharia law.
Jewish Extremist: A group or individual acting on behalf, or in the stated
interest of, a Jewish group or ideology
that promotes the rights, activities,
and beliefs of Jews at the expense of
other groups, ideologies, and activities.
Non-state actors: Groups or organisations that do not represent government, state authorities, or multilateral
organisations.
Non-State Militia: Armed group that
does not have an affiliation to any
state or government.
Religious Leader: Leader of a religious
order, body, or group.
Religious Minorities: A minority population of a country, region, or state
that holds a shared religious belief.
Unknown: Little to no indication or
consensus on what group(s) or individual(s) were involved in an incident.
Where possible, we will give as much
description as can be confirmed. For
instance if an instigator group’s name
is unknown, but their religious affiliation is know, we will code that affiliation.
NGO: A non-governmental organisation.
14
GENERAL TERMS
Extremism: The imposition of a belief,
ideology or values system on others
to the exclusion of all other views by
indoctrination, force or by seeking to
control government. This worldview is
seen as extreme if it vocally or actively
opposes the rule of law; religious pluralism; or racial and gender equality.
Terrorism: The use or threat of violence in order to influence government, international governmental organisations, civil society organisations
or to intimidate the public or a section
of the public for the purposes of advancing a political, religious, racial or
ideological cause.
Islamism: A modern religious-political
ideology requiring a dominant role for
an interpretation of Islam as state law.
FEBRUARY 2016 GLOBAL EXTREMISM MONITOR
Editors
Anthony Measures
Emily Mellgard
ABOUT the
CENTRE ON
RELIGION &
GEOPOLITICS
Across the world, the interaction
of religion and conflict is making its
impact felt. Political ideologies and
events are exposed to the pressures
of religion. Policy makers can no
longer ignore the threat posed by
violent religious ideologies, but if they
are to be defeated, they must be
understood.
Through evidence-based reports,
media commentary, high-level events
and policy briefings, the Centre
on Religion & Geopolitics (CRG)
provides that nuanced understanding.
We present informed analysis on the
interaction of religion and conflict
globally, offering policy options to
meet the scale of the challenge.
Copyright © February 2016 by the Tony Blair Faith
Foundation.
All rights reserved. Citation, reproduction and or translation
of this publication, in whole or in part, for educational or other
non-commercial purposes is authorised provided the source is
fully acknowledged.
The Centre on Religion & Geopolitics is an initiative of
the Tony Blair Faith Foundation which is registered with
the Charity Commission of England and Wales with the
number 1123243. We are a company limited by guarantee
and registered in England and Wales with company number
06198959. Our registered office is 66 Lincoln’s Inn Fields,
London, WC2A 3LH. The Tony Blair Faith Foundation US
has been determined by the IRS to be a publicly-supported
501 (c) 3 organisation which can receive tax-deductible
contributions from US donors. As an independent US
tax-exempt organisation, TBFF US shares the goals of, and
provides support to, the Tony Blair Faith Foundation based
in London.
15