/1 Executive Involvement in Bicameral Bargaining: The Role of the European Commission and the US President Whereas legislative resolution in bicameral systems is formally the responsibility of the two colegislating bodies, practice shows that executive powers - such as the US President and the European Commission - can play important roles in these processes. This makes it somewhat surprising that the vast majority of the literature on bicameral bargaining in the EU and important parts of the US literature neglect the role of these additional actors. Therefore, the current piece systematically examines the conditions under which executives are influential in bicameral bargaining using a simple model and by presenting empirical evidence at the aggregate and case levels from both EU co-decision and the US legislative process. Prepared for the Annual Meeting of the Danish Society for EU Studies in Aarhus, August 24, 2006 First Draft Address for correspondance: (before September 2006) International Center for Business and Politics Steen Blichers Vej 22 DK-2000 Frederiksberg tel. +45 3815 3586 e-mail: [email protected] (from September 2006) Department of Political and Social Sciences European University Institute Via dei Roccettini 9 I-50016 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) e-mail: [email protected] /2 There is general agreement that the introduction of the co-decision legislative procedure moved EU legislative politics in the direction of bicameralism as it is known from domestic political systems with the Council of Ministers (Council) and the European Parliament (Parliament) acting as the key players in this procedure1 (Crombez 2000; Tsebelis and Money 1997; Hix 2005; Corbett et al. 2003a). Perhaps as a result of this development, studies of EU co-decision have predominantly focused on the interaction between these two legislative bodies and have, with few exceptions (Rasmussen 2003; Burns 2004), ignored or very superficially analyzed the role of the European Commission (Commission). Interestingly, the tendency to ignore - what might for simplicity here be termed - executive powers in studies of legislative reconciliation is also to a certain extent the case in the political system typically argued to resemble that of the EU the most, i.e. the US. Thus, important parts of the literature of how differences between the US Senate (Senate) and House of Representatives (House) are being reconciled ignore the role of the President. It is true of course that formally speaking, bicameral bargaining is mostly a matter left for the legislative bodies in both political systems. At the same time however, it seems unreasonable that the President and the Commission should merely be passive actors monitoring developments from the sidelines. In fact, recent statistical evidence from an EU context of what determines the location of bargains in the end of co-decision reports the exact opposite (König et al. forthcoming). Therefore, the current piece systematically examines which types of power executives may enjoy in bicameral bargaining using a simple model and by presenting empirical evidence from both the EU and the US. This helps not merely to assess whether these executives matter, but also how and some of the conditions under which they do. Increasing knowledge of the role which the Commission and the President play in these bicameral bargaining processes is not just important in its own right, but also important because it can contribute 1 The author would like to thank the European Commission and the Sasakawa Fellowship foundation for research support. /3 to answer a more general question of whether the EU and its legislative process resemble that of the US political system. It is a common trend in recent EU research to regard the EU not as a state but as a political system because it shares important features with that of a domestic political system (Hix 2005). Interestingly, arguments have been that it is not one of its own Member States but the US political system that resembles the EU the most (Kreppel 2006; Pollack 2000a). Corbett et al. have for example argued , “The EU political system is more akin to US-style separation of powers than a more traditional European national parliamentary system” (2003b: 368). However, when it comes to specifically speaking of similarities between EU co-decision and other bicameral legislative processes, there is a risk that the conclusions drawn are biased because of the lack of attention drawn to executive involvement in these processes. The study showed that even though several authors have pointed to similarities between the EU and the US political systems the President was better able to affect the character of the legislative outcomes than the Commission in the analyzed cases. It argues that this is because he was in a stronger institutional position than the Commission, he was faced with two houses dominated by his own party, and he had more bargaining power. In contrast, the Commission’s institutional powers were weakened in practice, it did not find support in the legislative bodies in all cases, and its bargaining power was relatively low. This means that EU co-decision is actually more bicameral than one of the prominent examples of bicameralism, i.e. the US legislative system, which is much more tricameral. After a brief introduction to the design of the study and the existing research, a simple spatial model is presented, which looks at the ability of executives with different powers to exert influence on the legislative outcomes. Based on the analysis, three hypotheses are put forward specifying when executives can be expected to be influential, and they are subsequently tested with data from eight policy cases. Finally, the paper discusses what the implications of expanding the analysis of bicameral /4 bargaining with the role of executives are for the generally accepted conclusion that EU co-decision resembles legislative processes of bicameral systems such as the US. 1. Executive influence and the design of the study In both EU co-decision and the US legislative process, agreement cannot be reached unless both legislative bodies positively agree to the text2. Bicameral bargaining between the two legislative bodies can take two forms3. Either they can amend each other’s legislative texts in turn and send them (or amendments to them) back and forth between them until agreement is reached and/or they can delegate responsibility for solving the disputes to a subset of their members in a so-called conciliation committee4. The data collected here contains the subset of files that went to conciliation because these typically include both types of legislative reconciliation. Hence, it is common (and in the EU even compulsory) to try to establish agreement by shifting the text back and forth between the legislative bodies before deciding to go to conciliation. In the traditional terminology of the separation of powers, the Commission and the US Presidency can both be regarded as executive powers with the modification that in other respects than co-decision the Council also exerts executive power in the EU (Hix 2005: chapter 2). The Commission can best be described as a multinational bureaucracy with political responsibilities headed by so-called 2 This did not apply in the initial years of co-decision before the Amsterdam Treaty, where the Council had the possibility to reconfirm its so-called common position in the case of no agreement in the conciliation committees (i.e. the legislative text agreed to by the Council in its first reading), which unless overruled by the Parliament, became law. However, here the focus is on how co-decision has functioned since 1999. 3 It is important to point out that only those legislative areas that fall under the EU co-decision procedure can be regarded as bicameral. According to the figures reported by Mammonas for the period from October 1997 to December 2003, 27 per cent of the EU legislation was adopted under this procedure (2005: 4). 4 US conciliation committees are called conference committees, which I use here when I specifically refer to them. /5 Commissioners appointed by their national governments. In contrast, the President is a politician directly elected by the people of the United States. To study executive influence in bicameral bargaining is of course far from easy. Firstly, Gamson has noted that influence is one of the concepts about which “no established consensus on terminology exists” (1968: 59) and secondly, even if there were, it would still be hard to come up with a generally acceptable way to measure it, which could not be criticized (Jacobs 1997: 14). Here, I assess whether it can reasonably be expected that the involvement of the executive resulted in a different outcome than if it had not been involved. The empirical evidence consists of altogether 56 interviews with 50 different (mainly) staffers from the EU and US political institutions, some of whom had a general overview of bicameral bargaining (for example policy advisors on bicameral procedures), and some who were involved in the bargaining of four pieces of legislation from each political system. Secondly, I have a dataset of all procedures that went to conciliation in both the EU and the US in the period 1999-2004, for example information about the use of the presidential veto. Finally, I reviewed a range of general reports about bicameral bargaining and written documents from the cases. 2. Existing accounts Before I proceed, I examine what we already know from the secondary literature. Looking at the EU first, the few pieces of the co-decision literature, which include assessments of the Commission’s role, are generally pessimistic: Garrett’s finding is for example that “..under co-decision the Commission is effectively taken out of the game before the real bargaining over policy begins” (1995: 305), and Crombez states that the Amsterdam version of the co-decision procedure “renders the Commission irrelevant” (2001: 101). In an analysis of the Commission’s White Paper on Governance, Héritier (2001: 1) also states about co-decision that “there has been a subtle shift in the weight of inter-institutional decision-making in favour of bilateral relationships between the Council and the Parliament, sidelining the Commission”. /6 In addition, Rasmussen (2003) later showed based on statistical analysis of parliamentary amendments and three case studies that co-decision does put the Commission in what she termed a “situation of structural disadvantage” but also that it does not exclude the Commission from the policy process altogether but often gives it the possibility to act as a strategic facilitator between the Parliament and the Council. Subsequently, Burns (2004) conducted a similar examination of the role of the Commission in co-decision based on a case study and argued that factors that might potentially affect the Commission’s ability to exert legislative influence are a) its relationship with Parliament officials, b) its degree of impatience to achieve a certain outcome compared to the other institutions, and c) whether it shares preferences with actors of the Council and/or the Parliament. Schmidt (2000; 2001) and Bailer (2005) have also made recent studies of Commission influence, which even though they do not focus on co-decision are relevant here. Taking Schmidt first, she shows in her 2000 article how the Commission can use its role as guardian of the treaties to affect the legislative outcomes both by changing the default condition in case of no legislation and by changing the preferences of some Member States. However, her 2001 piece more pessimistically argues that practice often makes it impossible for the Commission to place proposals strategically and that the Council presidency has taken over much of its brokering role. Moreover, Bailer’s data of policy preferences and outcomes in specific legislative cases show that the Commission influence is smaller in the bicameral co-decision than in the consultation procedure, whereas her data of reputational rankings of actor influence do not indicate a power loss in co-decision. As far as the US is concerned, there is of course a large amount of literature about the role of Presidents in lawmaking. However, if the literature of bicameral bargaining in US conference committees is specifically examined, the vast majority of the studies have just like the EU co-decision literature largely not taken the executive into account. Most importantly, none of the studies of /7 conference committees are specifically devoted to examining the role of the President, and Van Beek was one of the first scholars to emphasize the need to do so (1995: 178-81). His empirical case studies therefore also pay attention to the role played by the President and show how the President can affect the compromises with his veto threat (1995: 14-17). Apart from Van Beek, the most comprehensive secondary source to date of conference committees that also discusses the role of the President is undoubtedly Longley and Oleszek’s 1989 comprehensive book about bicameral politics. They state, “The influence of the president on the legislative process is always pervasive – but not determinate”. However, they do not as such make an assessment of whether and when the President is influential, but focus on expanding knowledge of how the President is involved in bicameral politics. In sum, whereas other studies of the Commission and the President exist in large numbers, it is noteworthy that the studies of bicameral bargaining have only to a very limited extent analyzed the influence of such executives and that the evidence put forward is inconclusive. Moreover, the role of the Commission in bicameral bargaining has not been analyzed in comparative perspective, even though there are clear advantages of doing so. Hence, the studies by Rasmussen and Burns of one political system and one specific legislative procedure both suffer from an inability to assess the degree to which various institutional competences possessed by the Commission play a role because these are held constant. Instead, I compare executives who possess different competences, which is also advantageous, for example, to a comparison of the role of the Commission in different EU legislative procedures where some of its competences (such as its right of initiative) would not vary. 3. A simple spatial model illustrating different executive powers One of the conditions that affect whether executives are influential is which powers they hold. This is now examined in a simple model. The claim is not that it is necessarily a fully accurate reflection of the /8 legislative context in question, but that it is nevertheless a useful simplification for illustrating the effect of different executive competences all things equal and a good starting point for the empirical analysis. First, imagine two legislative bodies A and B who negotiate along a one-dimensional policy space (for example a traditional left-right policy scale), that there is an executive C5, and that the status quo (SQ) represents the initial legislative situation t0. Whereas A and B always need to adopt the final text, C does not. The ideal point of each actor on the continuum (A*, B* and C* respectively) does not neglect that they are collective entities with multiple interests, but represents the pivotal member of that body, i.e. the member who would be the crucial figure in determining the result of a vote on the issue in question6. Moreover, it is assumed that actor positions are sincere, constant during the game and Euclidian, i.e. the actors prefer points as close to their ideal points as possible and are indifferent regarding points that are equally distant from their ideal points. In addition, I assume that the game is a one-shot affair and that actors are sufficiently well informed that they know where on the continuum the status quo and the preferences of the other actors are located when making their choices7. I start by analyzing the effect of proposal power. 5 Using cooperative game theory and making the assumption that the preferences of the legislative bodies involved are Euclidean, Tsebelis and Money (1997) show that bicameralism will produce just one privileged dimension for these bodies because the latter would be worse off if they moved into other dimensions. Moreover, it can be argued that when bicameral bargaining takes place in the end of the legislative process there are typically just a few key issues left to be resolved. Finally, it is often possible to collapse multiple dimensions into a general one (such as a left-right scale). 6 If the vote is a simple majority, this is the median member of the body, whereas it would be a different member if the majority requirement is different (Krehbiel 1998). 7 This reflects that actors have often established formal positions when bicameral bargaining begins that are written down and known by the relevant decision-makers. Rybicki explains, “A recent book by Sarah Binder (2003) provides circumstantial evidence for the argument that legislators know the preference arrangements of key actors…” (2003: 14). /9 Proposal power Generally, the influence of an executive with proposal power varies according to how easy it is to adopt and modify the proposals. The lower the majority requirement and the harder it is to amend the proposal, the more influence the executive generally has. Pollack for example argues that proposal power is not in itself enough for an actor to be an agenda setter (2000b: 120-22). I first illustrate the effect of the majority requirement by comparing the two bicameral bargaining systems in Figures 1 and 2. The political systems are the same, except that the majority required for adoption in each of the two legislative bodies differs as it is simple majority in system A in Figure 1, whereas it is some kind of supermajority (for example a qualified majority) in system B in Figure 2. Assuming that not all members of a legislative body share the same preference, it can be seen that the higher the majority requirement is, the closer the pivotal members of the legislative bodies are situated to the status quo. This means that if the preferences in the two systems’ legislative bodies are identical, and if a supermajority is required in one system but only a simple majority is needed in the other, it is more difficult for an executive interested in changing the status quo significantly to do so in the former8. Figure 1 Political system A Simple majority ideal points A* SQ B* C* E Figure 2 Political system B Supermajority ideal points SQ B* A* C* E 8 By contrast, if I came up with an extreme case in which all members of a legislative body had the same preference, it would naturally make no difference whether the majority requirement was for a simple majority, a qualified majority, or unanimity. / 10 E is listed as a potential compromise between A and B in the figures, but this is of course not equilibrium in a game-theoretic sense, as all points accepted by the legislators to the status quo are possible in theory. Hence, if I wanted to determine the specific location of the final outcome, I would need to consider the actors’ relative bargaining power (and possibly also that of the executive), which can be the result of many factors, such as their time horizon, sensitivity to failure, link to voters etc. I now look at whether the legislative bodies can make any amendment they like (open amendment rule), only certain types of amendments (restricted rule), or no amendments but merely have to accept or reject the proposal (closed rule). If they can make any amendment they like and the executive holds no other power, they can in practice just ignore the initial proposal of the executive (C*) and adopt their own preferred point, for example E. If they have to either accept or reject the proposal, they will assess whether the suggested proposal by the agenda-setter makes them better off than the status quo. This would lead them to accept a proposal placed at C’s ideal point in system A, but not in system B with the higher majority requirement because C* is located further away from them than the status quo9. Finally, if there are limits as to how they can amend the proposal (modified amendment rule), the legislative bodies may for example be prohibited from agreeing on a compromise on certain parts of the continuum. Hence, it can be seen that as the amendment rule moves from a closed to a modified and maybe even to an open one, the easier it will be for the legislative bodies to ignore the proposal of the executive. Gatekeeping power The next type of power that an executive may enjoy is gatekeeping power, i.e. the ability of an executive to affect the majority required by one or both co-legislators. Whereas the majority requirement was 9 Moreover, it is clear of course that with full information, the executive would never propose something at C* in system B, but something as close to itself that both legislative bodies are able to accept. / 11 constant within a legislative body before, gatekeeping now allows it to vary even within one body depending on what the opinion of the executive is. Figure 3 An example of gatekeeping power SQ A*’ A* E’ B* E In Figure 3, legislative bodies A and B take decisions with a simple majority if the executive power supports their position, but if they do not have such support, legislative body A requires unanimity for adoption. I assume that the situation is one in which the executive power disagrees with A’s position, forcing A to take decisions unanimously. Again assuming that not all members of body A have identical preferences, this affects who the pivotal voter of body A will be, a situation that is illustrated in the figure by the shifting of body A’s ideal point from A* to A*’. This results in quite a significant change in the final outcome compared with the one that would result when only a simple majority was required in body A because the executive agreed with its position. Now the outcome in Figure 3 will no longer be E, but E’, which is the furthest that the most skeptical member of body A can be moved, as it is only willing to accept a compromise located a shorter distance from itself than the status quo. A skilful executive with proposal power can thus use gatekeeping power to make it harder for the legislative bodies to move away from its initial proposal and select among the different proposals that can attract qualified majority support the one that it prefers the most. If this strategy does not succeed, it can use its gatekeeping power. However, in cases where it is more interested in a change than the legislative bodies, invoking gatekeeping (and thereby increasing the majority requirement) is often not useful, as this would just make it even harder for the legislative bodies to adopt the changes. / 12 Veto power Finally, I consider the effect of giving the executive veto power. Full veto power cannot be overruled, which effectively means that not just the legislative bodies but also the executive must prefer the compromise to the status quo if it is to be accepted. In figure 4, legislative bodies A and B cannot adopt E as they did without the involvement of an executive power, but will have to adopt E’, which is the maximum change the executive power will accept to the status quo. Figure 4. Comparison of conditional and full veto power SQ A*’ E’’ C* B*’ A* E B* E’ Conditional veto power is not final, but can be overruled by the co-legislators if they are able to find a sufficient majority to do so. Typically, the way this process works is that the legislative bodies need a higher majority to override a veto than they do to accept a deal in the first instance. The change from simple to a higher majority requirement is illustrated by the move of the ideal points from A* and B* to A*’ and B*’. In such a situation, the outcome becomes E’’, which is the outcome that a supermajority can accept, and the executive will decide not to exercise a veto knowing that the legislative bodies would override it. Thus, it is easier for the legislative bodies to get a deal close to their preferences with conditional than with full executive veto power if they can muster the necessary majority to override a veto. In sum, we can first hypothesize that how influential executives are depends on which powers they possess. Most importantly it was seen that the power of putting forward proposals is not in itself worth so much, but gains leverage the harder it is for the legislative bodies to amend them, the lower majority they need to adopt them, and if a presented proposal is protected by other competences such as gatekeeping and / 13 veto power. Interestingly, the effect of gatekeeping and conditional veto power were shown to be similar in spatial terms, as both are a way of protecting executive influence by raising the majority requirement if the legislative bodies do not act with the support of the executive. Second, it also follows from the model that whether the executive gets the policy it wants depends on what its preferences are compared to those of the legislators. First, it matters how closely the executive is located to the legislative bodies for how easily it can persuade them to move in its own direction. Second, whether the executive is more interested in a radical policy change than the legislative bodies affects how useful it is to invoke gatekeeping/veto power. Hence, these powers, which make it harder for the legislative bodies to adopt legislation, are really only useful when the executive is less willing to change the status quo than the legislative bodies. Finally, we did not explicitly show but argued that because there is typically not just one point preferred by both legislative bodies to the status quo, their bargaining power and that of the executive affect where exactly the final compromise is placed. With regard to the executive, we can thus hypothesize that the more bargaining power the executive has, the more it can influence the placement of the final compromise. 4. The empirical evidence I now test these hypothesized relationships on aggregate and case level evidence. The cases have not been selected with any prior knowledge or expectation of the role of the executive performed in them, they relate to different policy areas, and a brief overview of them can be found in table 1. / 14 Table 1. The eight cases Procedural reference Issue area Purpose of legislation EU Resale Rights COD/1996/ 85 Ozone COD/1998/ 228 COD/2000/ Public Health 119 GMOs US Farm Medicare Bioterrorism Corporate accounting (SarbanesOxley) COD/1998/ 0072 HR 2646 (107th Congress) HR 1 (108th Congress) To harmonize the legal provisions governing the EU’s resale rights, i.e. the share of the profits that artists receive when their paintings or other works of art are resold To replace the Community’s existing instrument for implementing the Montreal protocol’s provisions for protecting the ozone layer To set up an integrated health framework in the Community as part of a strategy to improve public health and complement national policies in this area To extend and clarify the existing directive (90/220/EEC) on the deliberate release of GMOs into the environment To allocate funding for a series of existing farm programs through 2011, such as federal crop subsidies, domestic food aid, conservation, and rural development Intellectual Property Rights Environment Health Food Security Agriculture HR 3448 (107th Congress) To overhaul the existing health care benefit program and supplement it with a prescription drug benefit Health To help federal, state and local governments to prepare for and respond to biological attacks in particular, and to public health emergencies in general Health HR 3763 (107th Congress) To tighten corporate accounting and auditing rules for the purpose of restoring confidence in these rules Accounting and auditing I start by examining whether the executives were successful in the cases and subsequently assess whether the varying levels of success can be explained by the three factors set out (i.e. institutional powers, the preference constellation, and executive bargaining power). In the four EU cases, there is mixed evidence of how successful the Commission was. The Ozone file was relatively successful from the Commission’s point of view because the Council was persuaded to go further than the already agreed international standards, which the regulation was meant to implement10. Moreover, there is evidence that it played a role for the Council’s willingness to go relatively far, that the Commission 10 See for example the final debate in the Parliament: http://www.europarl.eu.int/omk/sipade3?PUBREF=- //EP//TEXT+CRE+20000613+ITEM-012+DOC+XML+V0//EN&LEVEL=3&NAV=X&L=EN / 15 supported the changes, and declared that they were technically feasible. Moreover, on the Public Health file the Commission, with a little help from the Parliament, received an even higher budget for the program than its initial proposal11. Moreover, even though the Commission did not get the amount of freedom it wanted in the implementation, the contents of the final program were relatively similar to what it initially had in mind despite some opposition from the Council. Instead, the Commission was much less successful in the other two EU cases. On the Resale Rights file, the share of the art market that was included in the final text was much lower and the implementation periods much longer than the Commission had wanted. During the Parliamentary debate on the final report, Commissioner Bolkestein said, “The Commission is still concerned by the long delays in application which may lead to ten years elapsing before the directive is able to produce its full harmonising effects”12. On the GMO proposal, the Commission would have liked a less precautious approach, which is illustrated by the following statement from Commissioner Byrne: “I don’t like seeing people coming along and elevating tiny risks into high probabilities on the basis of no evidence and damaging consumer confidence”13. Moreover, the Commission was “invited” to put forward certain legislative proposals (one on labeling and traceability and one to implement the so-called “Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety”), to which it was vigorously opposed. In contrast to the EU, there is evidence that all the final US bills were generally in accordance with the President’s wishes. This was for example the case in the final crucial stages of the negotiations of the 11 Comment by Trakatellis in the third reading debate of the European Parliament: http://www.europarl.eu.int/omk/sipade3?PUBREF=-//EP//TEXT+CRE+20020702+ITEM012+DOC+XML+V0//EN&LEVEL=3&NAV=X&L=EN 12 http://www.europarl.eu.int/omk/sipade3?PUBREF=-//EP//TEXT+CRE+20010702+ITEM- 004+DOC+XML+V0//EN&LEVEL=3&NAV=X&L=EN. See also Legislative Observatory: http://www.europarl.eu.int/oeil/file.jsp?id=126352. 13 The Examiner: “Going against the Green to back GMO trial”, p. 15, September 2000. / 16 Sarbanes-Oxley bill, where the President was actively engaged in moving especially house lawmakers in his direction to get a relatively restrictive bill on industry quickly in order to respond to additional corporate scandals. A respondent explained that “Oxley (chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services) was pressured to recede to the Senate position on a lot of these issues, there was no political will to fight the Senate, and the President wanted a bill”. Also on Medicare, President Bush exerted influence and was actively involved in persuading lawmakers to get both the initial House and Senate bills and the final joint bill passed. Congressional Quarterly Weekly for example reported that before the passage of the House bill, “Bush Administration officials and their congressional GOP aides repeatedly told holdout lawmakers to be pragmatic, pass the bills and rest assured they would be revised in a House-Senate conference”14. Moreover respondents explain that the Administration involvement in final Medicare negotiations was absolutely necessary for getting a bill out of Congress in a situation where the differences between the lawmakers were large15. The Bioterrorism bill was also one where the Administration was generally happy with the contents of the final bill. A respondent explained, “Bioshield was by and large a product that the White House was very strongly in favor of and played a significant role in creating”. Finally, the same also holds for the Farm bill, even though there was strong opposition from the President initially. However, as the policy process evolved and the electoral pressure increased, the Administration worked actively to convince skeptical lawmakers to increase traditional farm spending to maintain support from rural voters. A respondent explained, “The farm bill was one of the things that President Bush cited in his re-election campaign for the rural voters, that he signed the farm bill”. Moreover, the Congressional Research service reports, “by May 2002, the Administration was engaged in a vigorous public defense of the new bill, particular in response to widespread foreign criticism” (Congressional Research Service 2002: 5). 14 Congressional Quarterly Weekly, June 28, 2003, p. 1611. 15 Congressional Quarterly Weekly, August 30, 2003, p. 2064. / 17 The question is now whether the varying levels of executive success identified both between the two political systems and within the EU system can be explained by variations in the institutional competences, the preference constellation, and executive bargaining power. I begin by examining the institutional competences. Agenda-setting power Looking at proposal power first, it can be seen that whereas the Commission enjoys exclusive proposal power (EU Treaty article 251 (2)) in all the areas that fall under the co-decision procedure, the President does not have such formal proposal power as bills are put forward by members of the legislative chambers (Oleszek 2001: chapter 3). However, a closer look reveals that the Commission’s formal proposal power is to a certain extent watered down in practice, whereas the President’s lack of formal proposal power is compensated for by a possibility to influence informally which bills are put forward. The weakening of the Commission’s proposal power The Commission has itself explained, “The Commission’s de jure monopoly on the right of initiative does not correspond to a de facto monopoly. In reality, the Commission exercises its right of initiative in an exclusive manner in a very small percentage of its proposals” (Commission 2002: 4). Hence, before presenting a proposal the Commission typically involves the Member States, the Parliament and stakeholders in extensive consultation processes. Moreover, the Council has, since the beginning of the Community (currently article 208) and the Parliament since Maastricht (article 192), the possibility to invite the Commission to submit a proposal. Practice shows that these rights are used extensively, and the Commission feels politically engaged to respond to these “invitations”. In addition, the Council and the Parliament have not merely asked the Commission to present proposals by using this power, but by writing into the actual legislative acts that the Commission has to / 18 present a proposal within a certain deadline (Commission 2002: 4; 2002b: 10). One respondent speaks of “a kind of practice that started to build up in conciliation whereby provisions got inserted in acts asking the Commission to submit a proposal with a specific content within a specific date”16, which the Commission interpreted this new practice as “an attack on its own right of initiative” (Shackleton 2004: 4; Parliament 2004: 20; 2002: 19). In addition, it was shown in the formal model how the agenda setter’s power is generally low if it is hard to adopt its proposals and easy to amend them, which is exactly the case here. The majority rule in especially the Council is quite strict (usually qualified majority17), and there are no restricted or closed rules, which protect the initial Commission proposals from being changed by the co-legislators18. However, despite this weakening of the Commission’s formal initiative power in practice, my EU cases did show that it is not merely the case that the Commission anticipates the preferences of the colegislators and puts forward proposals that uncritically go through the legislative process. This was most pronounced on the GMO proposal, where the Commission was very eager to lift the so-called moratorium on GMO licensing. It put forward a proposal (COM/1998/85) that was characterized as more pro-science and pro-producers than what either the Parliament (A4-24/1999) or the Council (C50012/2000) wanted, who put higher emphasis on protecting consumer health. However, also on Research Rights, the Commission put forward a relatively ambitious proposal (COM/1996/97) 16 Examples include Compound feedstuff (COD/2000/15) and ambient noise (COD/2000/0194). 17 Today, a qualified majority in the EU requires 232 of a total of 321 votes in the Council (72 per cent), representing a majority of the Member States and 62 per cent of the EU’s population. 18 It should be noted though that they generally respect the subject under negotiation, i.e. it is not the case that legislators amend the proposal by adding ungermane material, which is more frequent in the US (Bach 1982). Moreover, it should be noted that Parliament’s Rules of Procedure (16th edition, rule 62) restrict amendments at second reading to those, which restore the position by Parliament in first reading, make up a compromise between it and the Council, amend new legal text, or take a new fact or legal situation into account. / 19 especially when compared to the position of the Council (C5-0422/2000), which would cover a large share of the art market and set some relatively ambitious implementation deadlines. The Ozone proposal (COM/1998/398) was less ambitious as it was mainly a ratification of some commitments that had already been agreed internationally in the so-called Montreal Protocol, but it did include some additional measures. Finally, even though the proposal for the Public Health program could superficially pass for a straightforward amalgamation of eight pre-existing programs (COM/2000/285), the respondents emphasized that it represented a fairly substantial shift and a more comprehensive approach in the European Union’s health policies. The informal proposal power of the President If I instead look at the US, the President often compensates for his lack of formal proposal power, by informally affecting the drafting of proposals. One way is by setting the overall agenda in the presentation of his legislative priorities. Hence, the US Constitution directs the President “to give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient” (Article II, Section 3). Moreover, he sends additional messages to Congress each year (for example an economic report and a budget message) outlining his priorities. Moreover, a respondent explains how “in general prior to introducing legislation. The staff of both parties, Democrats and Republicans, will sort of get an indication from the Administration where their policy position may be”. Sometimes, the Administration even drafts an informal bill, which the House and the Senate legislators can use when putting their bill together. Usually committee chairmen will be asked to introduce the bills in the houses, and Oleszek explains , “It is customary in both chambers for the words ’by request’ to be printed in the Congressional Record by the sponsor’s name to flag the measure as an administration initiative” (2001: 78). It is easier for the President than for the Commission to get such proposals adopted because the majority requirement is generally lower in the US bodies (simple majority) than in the Council (qualified majority) and also than in the Parliament at / 20 second reading, where the requirement for adoption is not merely a simple but an absolute majority (i.e. not merely a majority of those present in the vote but of all members of the European Parliament). That the President is often informally involved at the bill drafting stage in one or both legislative bodies is also shown in the US cases. Medicare was the number one domestic priority by President Bush before the last round of presidential elections and is therefore one of the clearest examples of this. News sources and respondents reveal that the President had most success impacting on the Republican-controlled House bill and that there was high coherence between this bill and the final bill between the houses19. Moreover, respondents explained that Bioterrorism was also a bill where the President and his administration exerted informal agenda setting power. About a part of the bill named the Prescription Drug User Fee Act, a respondent even explained that it is common practice for the drug industry and the Food and Drug Administration to get together and negotiate a package that serves as an important starting point for the negotiations between the politicians, and one to which lawmakers are generally sympathetic. On the Sarbanes-Oxley bill, the President’s initial views were also very much in accord with the limited approach of the House bill, i.e. few restrictive provisions on industry. Finally, on the Farm bill, it is little disputed how much of an agenda setting role the President exerted, but the overall picture is that it was more modest than on some of the above. One respondent stated, “Usually the Department of Agriculture produces a report of what the President wants […] kind of a broad concept report. It is totally ignored”. The fact that the President decided to issue tough statements criticizing both the House and the Senate bills (Congressional Research Service 2003: 4) also indicates that he was not that involved in the drafting phase. For instance, concerning the House bill he argued, “It would encourage overproduction of commodities, fail to help farmers most in need, 19 Roll Call: “Tom Scully Waits to Implement Biggest Change Since Program’s Creation”, July 3, 2003, and Congressional Quarterly Weekly, June 28, 2003, p. 1614. / 21 jeopardize global markets, and boost federal spending at a time of economic uncertainty” (Congressional Research Service 2002: 5). Commission agenda-setting during the legislative process In both the EU and the US, after proposals have been put forward the Commission and the President can informally attempt to influence the agenda. During first and second reading the Commission is often invited to informal gatherings between the co-legislators called trialogues, which was also the case in the examined files. Moreover, the Commission can attempt to influence the position taken by the Council in its common position or the amendments put forward by the European Parliament in its first and second reading. In conciliation, the Commission has a formal treaty role, as the EU Treaty says: “The Commission shall take part in the Conciliation Committee's proceedings and shall take all the necessary initiatives with a view to reconciling the positions of the European Parliament and the Council” (Article 251(4)). According to a conciliation guide from the Parliament, this for example means, “The Commission is often invited to produce compromise texts to be discussed” (Parliament 2000: 11). Nevertheless, the Commission’s role is much more difficult in conciliation where it is no longer supposed to defend its initial proposal, but to act as an honest broker. Moreover, it is the Council presidency that determines how much it wants to rely on the Commission’s compromises, which are typically not presented as its own but as if they emanate from the presidency for political reasons. According to Commission Director Ponzano, “ A ‘presidency compromise’ de facto replaces the initial Commission proposal in the final discussions” (own translation from French) (2002: 41-42). Presidency agenda-setting during the legislative process Unlike the Commission, the President has no formal mediating role between the houses in the conference phase, but can play an important informal agenda-setting role throughout the legislative process. For example one of my respondents said of the President, “The strongest lobbyist is the / 22 Administration…”, and another said about US conferences, “They [the Administration] are often there. First of all, it’s open meetings, and they are in the room. In informal negotiations, it depends. Sometimes they are invited, and sometimes they find out and give their opinion usually through the President’s party”. I see such attempts of informal agenda-setting after the initial bills had been put forward in my US cases. For example on Sarbanes-Oxley, when more scandals occurred the President made a public speech where he exerted informal agenda-setting by proposing new legal changes that he deemed necessary. Gatekeeping and veto power The second competence an executive can have is gatekeeping power. The President does not have such a power, as in principle the majorities (simple majority in both bodies) that are required for the adoption in the houses are the same regardless of what the President and his Administration might think about it. However, effectively this is not the case because of the President’s conditional veto, which raises the majority requirement in certain situations. Accordingly, after a bill has been adopted in both chambers, the President has 10 days (not including Sundays) to veto it or sign it into law. If he does neither, the bill becomes law by default (US Constitution, Article 1, Section 7). The reason the President’s veto is conditional is that it can be overruled if both the House and the Senate manage to find a two-thirds majority against it. In this way, it works in a similar way to gatekeeping by raising the majority requirement from simple to a two-thirds majority. This is a considerable practical hurdle, therefore the President’s veto power is relatively unconditional, which can also be seen in Table 2 that shows that none of the nine presidential vetos on the conference bills presented to the President in the period studied here (i.e. 7.7 per cent) were overruled by both bodies. / 23 Table 2. Vetoed bills out of the 117 conference bills presented to the President Pocket vetoed by the Vetoed President Overruled in the Overruled in the House Senate Total 9 1 0 1 106th 9 1 0 1 107th 0 0 0 0 108th 0 0 0 0 The data also show that the veto is not a heavily used tool. Just 10 out of the 117 conference bills presented to the President were vetoed or pocket vetoed, i.e. 8.5 per cent20. As is also apparent, the veto was only used by the Democrat President William J. Clinton in the 106th Congress, in which he was confronted with a Republican House and Senate. It is noteworthy that the succeeding Republican President (George W. Bush) did not veto any bills, partly because the Republicans were in control of both houses during his time in office apart from the 107th Senate, in which the Democrats had a narrow majority. So the impact of the presidential veto lies primarily not in its actual but in its potential use. Asked whether the veto is a real threat, one of my respondents stated: “Oh yeah, on certain pieces of legislation […] sometimes the Administration comes out very early in the process and says we can accept the House version of the bill but if the Senate version prevailed, we would have to veto this thing as a threat to the conferees [ members of the conference committee] not to waste an awful lot of time in the conference leaning towards a position that the Administration would ultimately veto..”. Therefore when the President threatens to use his veto, the legislators can either try to make a deal with the executive so that he does not exercise this option, or they can agree to a compromise backed by the two-thirds majority that is required in both the House and the Senate in order to override the presidential veto. 20 In one of these the President pocket vetoed the bill (i.e. did not sign the bill within the specified ten-day period, but by the time this period had passed Congress had adjourned). / 24 The formal situation is different in the EU where the Commission has gatekeeping but not veto power. Here, the Council is typically required to take decisions with qualified majority as already stated, unless the Commission uses its gatekeeping power and forces it to adopt a given legislative act unanimously (EU Treaty Article 250(1))21. However, the value of this gatekeeping competence is not always particularly high, because the Council often adopts decisions unanimously anyway, even in cases where the Commission’s support would enable a qualified majority vote to suffice. This diminishes the Commission’s formal power to affect the majority required by the Council. Probably for this reason, the Commission argued in its 2001 White Paper on European Governance, “When legally possible, Council should vote as soon as a qualified majority seems possible rather than pursuing discussions in search for unanimity” (2001: 22). In any case, it is important to be aware that the Commission only has this gatekeeping power during first and second readings and not in the conciliation phase where the required majority for adoption is the same, regardless of the Commission’s opinion (Pollack 2003: 85)22. In addition, even when decisions are formally taken by qualified majority the actual contents of the compromises may enjoy somewhat broader support as some views of the skeptical countries may have been taken into account, even if they do not end up actually voting in favor of the final deals. We see the limits of gatekeeping power in the two cases where the Commission was not very successful (Resale Rights and GMOs). The common position on Resale Rights was not one the Commission was extremely pleased with and one which in content went further than would have been necessary if the goal had just been to obtain a qualified majority. The Commission opposed it but could not do anything against a unanimous Council, which stood behind the common position. Hence, it was not 21 In contrast the majority requirement in the Parliament varies between simple majority and absolute majority at the different stage of the legislative process irrespective of what the Commission thinks (EU Treaty Article 251). 22 See also the opinion of Advocate General Geelhoed delivered on 8 September 2005, European Court of Justice Case C- 344/04. / 25 until the final adoption in the Council, where the Commission no longer enjoyed gatekeeping power, that Austria and Great Britain actually voted against the joint text. On Resale Rights, the situation was a little different. Here there were actually three countries abstaining (France, Ireland and Italy) when the common position was adopted, but technically the vote was still unanimous because the countries did not oppose the deal but merely abstained in the vote. In other words, the Commission could not use gatekeeping here either. However, even if this would have been possible, i.e. one or more countries had directly opposed the deal in the Council, it might not have been an effective strategy. Thus, forcing all countries to positively agree to the common position can often make it very difficult to get a result or might result in one that would be favored even less by Commission as the countries which are hardest to bring on board are often the ones furthest away from the Commission’s position. This was very clearly the case with Italy and France on the GMO proposal. Finally, even though the Commission has no formal veto power, it can withdraw its proposal if amendments are introduced by the co-legislators during the policy process that represent a “manifest illegality of proposed legislation or serious watering down of the Commission proposal” as a corollary to its right of initiative (Commission 2000: 6). However, this power is limited to the circumstances stated in the quote, in addition to being a politically very difficult tool for the Commission to employ. An internal Commission guide states, “The Commission obviously defends its right of withdrawal, but in practice seldom exercises it” (2000: 6)23. Moreover, as with its gatekeeping powers, there is general agreement that the Commission’s right to withdraw or amend its proposals does not exist in conciliation (Parliament 2004: 19; Nugent 2002: 152; Rutschmann 2002: 75). 23 An exception to this is withdrawal by the Commission where it is in the interest of the Parliament and the Council. / 26 Overall, the examination of the institutional competences possessed by the EU and US executives (proposal power, agenda-setting during the legislative process, gatekeeping and conditional veto power) shows that the President is in a much stronger institutional position than the Commission even though the President does not have formal proposal power. As hypothesized, the differences in the extent to which the executive was influential in the case files in the US and the EU can thus partly be explained by differences in the institutional competences possessed by the executives in these systems in practice. Preference constellation and bargaining resources The second and third factor hypothesized to affect executive influence was the preference constellation and the amount of executive bargaining power. The analysis showed that both of these mattered. Hence, it was shown to be important for executive success that the executive could find allies in one or both legislative bodies. In both EU cases where the executive was successful (Ozone and Public Health), it thus enjoyed strong support from the Parliament, whereas it was less successful in the other cases involving a much more divided Parliament and Council (Resale Rights and GMOs). Moreover, one reason the President was influential in all the US case files is likely to be related to the fact that he had strong political support in either one or both legislative bodies. One informant told me, “You are here at a unique time, because right now the Republicans control everything […] What people are acting on in conference is coming from the White House and the emphasis is to try to pass as much that is coming from the White House as the White House wants. This is a unique situation, we haven’t had this in 60 years”. Interestingly, the President was thus not successful in the US cases because he threatened to or used his presidential veto, but because he was actively engaged in persuading the lawmakers to move further in a certain direction. Hence, he was largely dependent on getting the legislation through and had no intention whatsoever to make it harder/impossible for the legislative bodies to adopt the legislation by / 27 using the veto, just like the Commission did not use gatekeeping power in the analyzed EU cases. However, in other cases, the President can use conditional veto against proposal to block proposals that have been put forward against his wishes. Instead, the Commission typically has no interest in using its somewhat similar gatekeeping power because it has drafted the proposals and does not want to make it harder to get them adopted. Also the level of executive bargaining power can help explain differences in legislative success of the US and EU executives. The Commission has informational advantages that can serve as a bargaining resource first because it is the only body that participates in the internal deliberations of both the Council and the Parliament, and second because its staff is far larger and more specialized than that of the Parliament and the Council. However, in the analyzed cases where the political climate was tense and it lacked support in the legislative bodies (Resale Rights and GMOs), this informational advantage was not sufficient to exert legislative influence. Hence, despite the fact that all EU files went all the way to conciliation, the ones where the Commission was successful (Ozone and Public Health) were relatively uncontroversial from a political point of view, whereas the last two where it was not (Resale Rights and GMOs) involved a higher level of political controversy. In the latter, enormous efforts had to be made behind the scenes to accommodate the views of the skeptical countries (most importantly Britain in the Resale Rights case and France on the GMO case) even if Britain ended up opposing the final deal on Resale Rights and France abstained from the final vote on GMOs. If we instead look at executive bargaining power in the US, the President and his Administration often have an informational advantage compared to the houses just like the Commission. Moreover, the Administration does not just provide oral advice, but may also draft actual amendments or compromises to the text being negotiated. A respondent explained: / 28 “The Administration can present amendments to members, they can be available to comment on amendments that members may be drafting themselves […] So they would ask the Administration representatives to take a look at that particular section and give them comments, and then the Administration might say, ‘OK, we have taken a look at it, we can accept most of it, but we think this ought to be changed, this ought to be added, and this ought to be deleted”. However, what made the difference between the Commission and the President here was not the informational resources, which they both had. Instead, it was seen how the President could often use his direct link to the voters as a bargaining resource to force Congress to deliver him specific bills in a situation of electoral pressure, for example by going public with a given message. Hence, whereas in many ways it made it harder for the Commission to interfere in a case of high political controversy, the situation was in many ways the opposite for the President, who could benefit from such a situation. Thus, he was actively engaged in party politics and strategically used his link to voters. For example, on Medicare the President issued a Statement of Administration Policy about the Senate draft bill in which he said, “More work needs to be done to assure that private insurers, not the government, bear the risk of providing coverage”24. In sum, it can be seen that differences in bargaining power and differences in the preference constellation impact on the degree of executive success. The President had greater bargaining power than the Commission, and he was faced with two legislative bodies where his own party was in the majority in all the US cases. The Commission, on the other hand, had to struggle with legislating bodies with quite deviating positions from it in some of the EU cases. Conclusion This study has analyzed how executives exert influence in bicameral bargaining and has shown that three factors are important for when executives can be expected to be influential. First, despite 24 Congressional Quarterly Weekly, June 21, 2003, p. 1537. / 29 similarities in the powers of the Commission and the President there were also important differences, which in practice put the President in the strongest position. Despite the fact that the Commission did not just put forward legislative proposals exactly as its legislative principals wanted, its role as an agenda setter was shown to be considerably weakened, whereas the President had substantial informal agenda setting power. Moreover, the President’s conditional veto was generally a much more effective institutional tool to protect his legislative ideas than the Commission’s gatekeeping power was due to the severe limitations put on the use of Commission gatekeeping in practice. Hence, its gatekeeping power was shown to be restricted to first and second reading in the policy process and to be politically difficult for the Commission to employ. Second, there was evidence that the preference constellation played a role for the executive’s chances of exerting legislative influence. Hence, there is a systematic difference in the preference constellation between the two systems, which has an impact on the usefulness of gatekeeping and conditional veto power respectively. Thus, it was argued that whereas the Commission is usually more interested in adopting far-reaching legislation than especially the Council (not least because it has put forward the initial proposal), the President is not necessarily pleased with all legislative proposals that are put forward. This means that whereas a power to prevent something from going through or to make it harder for something to get adopted is often useful for the President, it is much less so for the Commission as it typically does not have an interest in making it even harder for the Council to adopt the compromises. Moreover, the preference constellation matters in the sense that in both political systems support in either one or both legislating bodies was important for whether the executive could persuade the co-legislators to move in a certain direction. Third, I also found evidence that apart from preferences and institutional powers alone, it also matters which bargaining resources executives have at their disposal. Thus, it was seen that whereas high / 30 political controversy often reduces the bargaining leverage of the Commission considerably and makes it much harder to defend its own proposal, high political controversy often increases the informal influence of the President. Hence, in such a situation the President can use his direct link with the voters as a bargaining resource and engage in party politics through, for example the media, and put pressure on Congress to deliver him a certain bill. These conclusions have implications not merely for what the roles of the President and the Commission are, but also for the generally accepted conclusion that the EU resembles the US political system and that EU co-decision resembles that of bicameral legislative processes. It can be seen that when it comes to specific similarities between EU co-decision and the US legislative processes, there is an additional actor to account for who does not necessarily play the same role in the two systems, i.e. the executive. Ironically, it was seen that it is actually EU co-decision and not the US legislative process that functions most predominantly in a bicameral fashion, whereas the US system to a much greater extent functions in a tricameral way. 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