Socioeconomic Equity, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying Capacity
Author(s): Gretchen C. Daily and Paul R. Ehrlich
Reviewed work(s):
Source: Ecological Applications, Vol. 6, No. 4 (Nov., 1996), pp. 991-1001
Published by: Ecological Society of America
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Ecological Applications, 6(4), 1996, pp. 991-1001
? 1996 by the Ecological Society of America
SOCIOECONOMIC EQUITY, SUSTAINABILITY, AND
EARTH'S CARRYING CAPACITY1' 2
GRETCHEN
C.
DAILY3
Energyand Resources Group, Building T-4, Room 100, Universityof California,Berkeley,California 94720 USA
PAUL
R.
EHRLICH
Centerfor ConservationBiology, Departmentof Biological Sciences, StanfordUniversity,
Stanford,California 94305-5020 USA
Abstract. We examine the relationshipbetween socioeconomic equity in opportunity
and sustainability,as reflectedin patternsof food productionand fertility.Our analysis
spans various levels of social organization,fromwithinthe household (gender-and agematerialwealth),amongregions
relatedequity)to relationsamong households(of different
(particularlyruralvs. urban), and among nations (rich and poor). Our preliminaryresults
in this complex area suggestthatincreasingequality of opportunity
at each of these levels
can help to increasefood productionand to lowerfertility
rates,throughvariedmechanisms.
Workingtoward such equity constitutesa "no regrets" strategyfor transitioningto a
sustainablesocietyand increasingEarth's carryingcapacityforhumanbeings,as measures
to reduce thegrowingdisparitybetweenrichand poor have meriton ethicalgroundsalone.
An importantcaveat, however,is that equity in consumerlifestyleswithinand between
nationscannotbe achieved globally by leveling up to consumptionfromthe bottom.Runaway consumptionin rich countriesmustbe curbedas partof an effortto reduce the scale
needed development
of humanenterpriseto below carryingcapacity while still permitting
among the poor.
Key words: agriculturalproductivity;biophysicalsustainability;carryingcapacity,Earth's; equity,gender; equity,intergenerational;equity,socioeconomic; governmentalpolicy impacts; green
revolution;humanpopulation impacts; humanfertility;
food production; sustainabilityvs. equity.
uities themselveshelp perpetuatepoverty,which generates vicious cycles (e.g., Dasgupta 1993) involving
A doubling of human population size portends a
more than doubling of human impacts because hu- deleteriousand sometimesirreversibleimpactson biomanityhas sequentiallyexploited the most accessible physical componentsof Earth's life-supportsystems.
of its essential resources. It may be difficulteven for Second, theyhindercooperationamong partiesof difdrasticchanges in consumptionand technologyto off- feringsocioeconomic status-cooperation purportedly
set the increase in environmentaldeteriorationasso- requiredforavertingpotentiallydisastrouspopulationproblems(Daily et al. 1995).
ciated with projected population growth.This makes and environment-related
capitalizing on human behavioral flexibilityand in- In this paper we restrictour focus to the firstof these.
genuityabsolutelycriticalas avenues fortransforming We and othershave tendedto shy away frominvesglobal society into a sustainable enterprise.Govern- tigatingthe social, economic, and political dimensions
mentpolicy-economic policy in particular-can be a of carryingcapacity (CC) because of theircomplexity
and consumption and political sensitivity.But we believe thatconcenpowerfultool forinfluencingfertility
patternsas well as ratesand directionsof technological tratingsolely on the biophysical dimensions is the
equivalent of the drunksearchingfor lost keys under
and culturalinnovation.
Governmentpolicy thatpromotesequityis especial- a lamppostratherthanwheretheywere lost "because
ly worthexamination.Not onlydo manyconsidermor- thelightis better"there.We subscribeto theview that
ally undesirablethegrossinequitiesthatpresentlychar- a more equitable world-in terms of opportunityacterize most societies and the world as a whole, but would be a betterworld. But would a more equitable
various lines of evidence suggestthatthese inequities world be more sustainable,have a higherCC, or more
are biophysically(as well as socially) unsustainable easily adjust populationsizes to local CCs?
(Holdren et al. 1995) fortwo reasons. First,the ineqIn this paper,we explore the relationshipsbetween
equity and sustainabilityand between equity and bioI Manuscriptreceived 20 December 1994; revised 9 June physicaldimensionsof CC. Our analysisextendsacross
1995; accepted 28 June 1995.
various levels of social organization, spanning the
2 For reprintsof this group of papers, see footnote 1, p.
spectrumfromindividualswithina household(gender975.
and
age-related equity) to relations among regions,
3 Presentaddress: Department
of Biological Sciences, StanfordUniversity,Stanford,California94305-5020 USA.
nations,and groupsof nations.Intertemporal
equityis
INTRODUCTION
991
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GRETCHEN C. DAILY AND PAUL R. EHRLICH
992
inherentlysubsumedin considerationof sustainability
and CC. In evaluating sustainabilityand CC, we necessarily focus on the two aspects of the human enterprise for which there are the best and most relevant
data: patternsof food productionand fertility.
The relationshipswe seek to characterizeare dauntingly complex, and our inquiry admittedlyis only a
beginning.Our preliminaryanalysis treatsvarious aspects of therelationsequityhas withsustainabilityand
CC in isolation; in reality,the interactionsare often
strong and complex. For example, investment,especially in humancapital or researchand development,
equity; it may,howclearly impacts intergenerational
ever, involve difficulttrade-offsif, as Kuznets (1955)
implies,unequal income is associated withhighersavings rates. Finally, we draw upon a vast literature,ilpointswitha fewofthebest-studiedand most
lustrating
importantcases ratherthan by attemptinga compretheinquiry
hensivereview.In spiteoftheseconstraints,
seems worthwhileand potentiallyilluminating.
DEFINITION
OF TERMS
For the purposes of this paper,termsare definedas
follows:
Equity is a measureof the relativesimilarityamong
individuals or groups in opportunityto enjoy sociopolitical rights, material resources, technologies,
health,education,and otheringredientsof humanwellbeing (see Dasgupta [1993] foran excellentexposition
on well-being).
Sustainabilitycharacterizesany process or condition
that can be maintainedindefinitelywithoutinterruption, weakening,or loss of valued qualities. Sustainability is a necessary and sufficientcondition for a
populationto be at or below carryingcapacity (Daily
and Ehrlich 1992). Carryingcapacity(CC) always embodies the concept of sustainability.
Biophysical carryingcapacity is the maximumpopulation size thatan area can sustainundergiven technological capabilities.
Social carryingcapacityis themaximumpopulation
size thatan area can sustainundera given social system,withparticularreferenceto associated patternsof
resource consumption.Under any set of technologies,
social CC is necessarilysmaller than biophysical CC
because of inefficienciesinherentin resource-distribution systems(e.g., Hardin 1986; see Daily and Ehrlich [1992] foran elaborationof biophysicaland social
dimensionsof CC). Thus biophysical CC is an upper
bound on social CC.
FOOD
PRODUCTION
The resourcethatis normallymostimportantin setting the CC of an animal population is food, and humanityis much like otheranimals in this respect.But
most animals simplydepend on the food thathappens
A fewnon-human
to be available in theirenvironments.
species, such as certainwoodpeckersthatdrillsap wells
Ecological Applications
Vol. 6, No. 4
into trees and shrubsor ants that "farm" fungi,work
to enhance theirfood supplies, but none approach our
species in thedegreeto whichtheycan manipulateand
tradefood supplies.
Equity betweensexes and food production
In large regionsof theworld,notablyin sub-Saharan
Africaand in SouthAsia, womencontributemuchmore
farmlaborthando men.At theextreme,Africanwomen
are claimed to produce 90-95% of the continent'sdomesticfood (WEDO 1994, WRI 1994). In South Asia,
where women supply most of the labor in rice agriculture,the workload of women farmers(including
householdchores)exceeds thatof menby 1.5-2.5 times
(in termsof timespent).For example,in theHimalayas,
women contributemore time to crop productionthan
men and bullocks combined(Singh 1987). In thetribal
economy of Orissa, India, women spend almost twice
as muchtimein agriculturallabor as do men(Fernandes
and Menon 1987). Moreover,farmingin ruralIndia is
characterizedby a marketforcasual agriculturallabor
thatpays women on average 60% of male hourlywages; typicallybetween 60 and 90% of the casual labor
hiredare women (Dasgupta 1993:239). (Childrenalso
contributesubstantiallyto farmand household labor,
as we discuss later when consideringthe effectsof
gender-basedinequitieson fertility[see Humanfertility:Intra-householdequityand fertility]).
Agriculturalproductivitymay be influencedin several ways by gender-basedinequity.First,the amount
of time women have available to farmaftertendingto
immediate household needs may limit productivity.
Available data indicate that in both South Asia and
sub-Saharan Africa the domestic energy of roughly
90% of households is supplied by fuel wood (and to a
lesser extentcow dung). Available data indicate that
womennow expendan estimated10-25% of theirdaily
energyon biomass fuel collection.During thedryseason, an additional 10-25% is expended upon water
collection-up to 17.5 h/wkin a village in Senegal.
The workloadof women in both areas is increasingas
a consequence of diminishingand receding fuel and
waterresources,particularlyin arid regions(Dasgupta
1993, WRI 1994).
A second importantgender-basedinequityresidesin
women's relative lack of access to farmcredit,agriculturalextensionservices,materialinputsto farmproductivity,and hired or child labor, especially during
seasons of labor scarcity.The FAO (Food and AgricultureOrganizationof the United Nations) estimates
thatwomen's sharein agriculturalcreditis ? 10% (WRI
1994:5 1). One would expect unmetneed forthese services and inputs to exert a direct negative effecton
productivity.
Such an effectmanifesteditself dramaticallyin a
survey done in Burkina Faso where men and women
farmdifferentplots of land. Taking into account plot
quality,crop, and year,plots cultivatedby women had
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November1996
EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY
30% lower yields, on average, than plots farmedby
men in the same household. Over all plots of land,
female-controlledplots had significantly
lower yields
than male-controlledplots, despite a curious observationthatthewomen's plots scoredbetter,on average,
on measures of land quality.The yield differencesappeared to resultfroma large differencein access by
men and women to farminputs,particularlychildren's
labor and manure(Udry 1995).
A third,nearlyuniversalinequityis lack of decisionmakingpower by women over themanagementof natural resources (agriculturalresources, forests,water,
etc.) from which they are primarilyresponsible for
meetingthehousehold's needs. At present,the shadow
prices (social value) of naturalresourcesoftengreatly
exceed theirmarketprices,implyingthattheirexploitation is massively subsidized by the most disadvantaged membersof society (e.g., the forestdweller,the
tenant farmer; Dasgupta 1993). Gadgil and Guha
(1992) advance well-supportedargumentsforenhancing the prospectsof sustainable resource use by empoweringwiththe rightto managementthose (women
and men) whose subsistencedepends upon the longtermconditionof local resources. On the otherhand,
as we have personallyobserved, local empowerment
in no way guaranteesa convergenceof short-term
individual incentivesand long-termsocial best interest.
The rapid rates of change in size, composition,and
culture that now typifyhuman populations, even in
remote,ruralareas, representsa major impedimentto
theevolutionof soundresource-management
practices.
Equity betweenhouseholds and
food production
Perhaps the equity issue in agriculturethathas attractedthe most attentionis the distributionof land
among farmers(e.g., Hedges 1994). Is land concentratedin the hands of a few individuals,withthe majority of farmersworkingfor big landownersor subsistingon tinyplots thattheyown or cultivateas tenants? Or, on the otherhand, is agriculturalland rather
equitablydistributedamongfamilyfarmers?The usual
assumptionis thatthe lattercase is more socially desirable thanthe former,and governmentpromotionof
equity in land distributionis called "land reform."
Agriculturaleconomistsview large plantationor estate systems as generally inefficientcompared with
family-operatedfarmsfor growingstaple food crops.
Some crops, notably cotton and sugarcane, can be
grown efficientlyon very large tractsof land by unskilled crews directedby overseers.But in most cases
more intimateknowledge and care by farmersis required to get the most out of crops under cultivation
or animalsbeinghusbanded.Variationin microclimatic
and edaphic conditionsmayrequirea tailoringof treatmentsto individual fields; animals also oftendo best
withindividualizedhandling.The timedevotedto land
managementand supervisionof unskilledlaborersbe-
993
comes increasinglycostlyas the area farmedincreases
(Brewster1950).
One mightassume thatwithall theirmachineryand
inputsbig farmsshouldbe moreefficient.
But thesmall
farmerwishes to maximizeproductionper hectare;the
incentivesforlargerlandowners,on theotherhand,are
to maximize productionper worker.This is reinforced
by a desire to keep wages low by maintaininga large
unemployedlabor pool. A consequence of these contrastingincentivesis thatsmall farmersproduce about
twice as much per hectareas do large farmers,while
using only one fourthor one fifthas many purchased
inputs per hectare (Murdoch 1990). The inherentinefficiencyof large-scale plantationfarminghas sometimes led to its replacementby familyfarmingwhen
demandforlabor in cities putupwardpressureon farm
wages. This was an importantfactorin the sixteenthcentury decline of the European manorial system
(Wallerstein 1974). Nonetheless, the economies of
scale in farmingcan be quite complicated, and efficiencymay generallypeak at theupperend of thefamily farmsize spectrum.
In overdeveloped countrieslike the United States,
thetrendhas overwhelmingly
been towardlargerfarms
specializing in a single crop. The average American
agriculturalworkerfarms 137 ha, near the upper end
of the range in size of familyfarms.In the developing
world where the income disparitybetween farmfamilies and urbanworkersis a serious issue, land reform
has provendifficultto achieve. For example,Mexico's
effortsafterthe revolutionof 1910 were abandoned
whenonlypartiallycompleted;the 1994 revoltin Chiapas was in parta result.The Far East (includingJapan),
by contrast,has been relativelysuccessful in creating
and maintainingequity in land tenure,and this unquestionablyhas been an importantfactorin its foodproductionsuccess. Should Japan'spolicy of sheltering
rice pricesfromimportsbe reversed,however,theprofitabilityof small farmsmay be lost and theland tenure
situationmay change drastically.Land inequities in
Africa, mainly in eastern and southernAfrica, are
largelyholdoversfromcolonial days; some of thebest
land is still owned and farmedby descendantsof European colonials.
Technological progress in farmingcan also work
against equity,hurtingthe farmerswho are less able
to adopt innovationsrapidly(oftenthe smallerfamily
farms), while favoringnonfarmconsumers. For example, the introductionof modern high-yieldingvarieties(HYVs) into agriculturalsystemsin less developed countries has putatively exacerbated inequity
(Dahlberg 1979). Since the green revolution was
launched, criticshave argued thatHYVs can only be
exploited by comparativelywealthy landownerswho
can affordthe irrigationsystems,fertilizers,and pesticides requiredby the HYVs. This advantage would
be reinforcedas large farmersboughtout smallerones
untiltheirholdingswere large enough to replace labor
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994
GRETCHEN C. DAILY AND PAUL R. EHRLICH
Ecological Applications
Vol. 6, No. 4
with machinery-which would furtherenhance their evidence supportsthenotionthatlarge-scaleindustrial
in concertwitha growing farming favors unsustainable resource management
advantage.This substitution,
class of landless laborers, would reduce agricultural thatwill reducebiophysicalCC throughtheexhaustion
wages (e.g., Johnstonand Cownie 1969, Wharton1969, of soils, depletionof irreplaceablefossil groundwater,
Falcon 1970, Cleaver 1972, Shiva 1991, Bray 1994).
destructionof biodiversity,and disruptionof socioHayami and Ruttan(1985) claim thatthese predic- economic systemsthatprovide food securityand potions have not been borneout. They draw a distinction litical stability(e.g., Shiva 1991, Ehrlichet al. 1993).
between the effectson equity of mechanical and bio- Greaterequityin land distributionand rewardsamong
logical innovation.The former,exemplifiedby giant those laboringin agriculture(withan increase in those
harvestingmachines,favorslarge enterprisesand land so engaged, at least in rich countries) would likely
over labor. The latter,on the otherhand, exemplified increase social CC and maintainthe underpinningsof
by improvedseeds or fertilizers,generallyfavors in- biophysical CC.
tensificationof land use, benefitingsmall familyopEquity betweenregions or groups and
eratorsand laborers.
food production
Overall, evaluationof theimpactof green-revolution
One of theoutstanding,
pervasiveinequitiesbetween
technologieson equityis confoundedby several other
factors,not least of which is rapid populationgrowth, groups is thatbetweenurbanand ruralpopulations.It
which has dramaticallyincreased the person-to-land traces back clearly in many less-developed countries
ratio. In the 1960s and 1970s the numberof laborers (LDCs) to colonial policies, but one could findmuch
engaged in agriculturein southand southeastAsia rose deeper roots in the historyof agricultureas a way of
by 1.0-2.5% annually,while theamountof arable land life. Agriculturalsocieties have classically destroyed
societies. A European agriculturalcivincreased by only -1%, withthe incrementalland be- gatherer-hunter
ing of lower quality (Hayami and Kikuchi 1982). It is ilization displaced Native American gatherer-hunters
claimed thatthegreenrevolution,by introducingland- over all of NorthAmerica; similarlyin this century,
saving technologiesand thuspartiallyrestoringthebal- nomadicAfarswerepushedout of theirtraditionalpasance, actually preventedan even greatertrendtoward turelandin the Awash Valley of Ethiopia by the deinequity (Hayami 1981, Hayami and Ruttan 1985). velopmentof commercialagriculture,financedby corHere we have an example of a possibly very serious porationsin richnations.The resultwas decimationof
"social trap" (Costanza 1987). Populationgrowthap- cattleherdsand starvationamongAfars(Koehn 1982).
parentlypromotesinequity,while inequityapparently Similar cases can be found in virtuallyevery part of
lowers CC (and, as discussed below, may increasepop- the world.
ulation growth).
One could argue that the eliminationof gathererThis standardeconomicanalysisis suspecton a num- hunterculturesis more than compensatedfor by the
ber of counts, however. One is that in making yield increase in biophysical CC accompanyingthe expancomparisonsbetweentraditionaland HYV-based sys- sion of modernagriculture.This has allowed morepeotems,only grainsare considered,and thusmanyof the ple to live simultaneouslyat what is oftenjudged to
yields frompolyculture(e.g., straw,fiber,pulses, oil be a higherstandardof living. Such a view raises concrops) are notincludedin thecomparison(Shiva 1991). siderable scientificdoubt (e.g., Diamond 1992) and
This is particularlyshocking when, as in India, the moral objections (Ehrlich 1980), which we lack the
entire systemhas operated against the productionof space to discuss here.
Rather,we attemptto characterizein broad termsthe
pulses, therebydenying many of the poor a critical
proteincomponentof theirdiets (Shiva 1991; Madhav impactof rural-urbaninequityon agriculturalproduction. We startwith the observationthatthe economic
Gadgil, personal communication).
Second, governmentpolicies can greatlyinfluence incentivesprovidedto farmersrarelyreflectlocal need
the impactof green-revolution
technologieson equity. foragriculturalproducts,butare shaped insteadlargely
In India the governmenthas chosen to subsidize inputs by externalforces (as they should be if farmersand
in restrictedareas wherelarge surplusescould be gen- urbandwellersare each to operateat theircomparative
erated (Shiva 1991; Madhav Gadgil, personal comadvantage). Domestically,these include economic demunication). Third, a vast array of environmental prob- mandforimportedgoods, politicalconsiderations,and,
in rice (R.
lems have been created by the green revolution(e.g., in Asian rice economies, self-sufficiency
Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1970, Shiva 1991) that call into Naylor,personal communication);internationalforces
question its sustainability.Althoughthe primarygoal includedebt,termsof trade,and thedynamicsof world
of a rapidincreasein grainproductionin poor countries commoditiespricing,among others.We consider the
was clearly achieved, the long-termcosts may prove consequences of inequityin thecontextof each of these
in excess of any benefits.Whethertherewas a viable sequentially,in this section and the next.
alternativeremainsunclear.
Overdeveloped-country(ODC) models of industriIn sum, what can be concluded about equity, sus- alization, afterwhich most LDCs fashionedtheirecotainability,and CC in this complex area? Substantial nomic and political objectives, requireda vast expan-
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November1996
EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY
995
sion of economic resourcesavailable to the state.The Madhav Gadgil, personal communication),directly
only economic sector large enough to financethe ex- lowers social CC by limitingnations' abilities to feed
pansion was agriculture,which soon came to be man- themselves.
aged to maximize short-term
staterevenue-earning
poEquity betweennations and
tential. Funds squeezed from the agriculturalsector
food production
were and stillare investedlargelyin othersectors,leaving desperateand growingneeds unattendedin thedesOf the myriad complexities involved at the interignatedengineof development(Glantz 1987). This bias nationallevel, we brieflydescribesome of theintimate
againstagriculturehas resultedin lower ratesof return connectionsamongthreecentralfactorsinfluencing
agto investmentin othereconomic sectorsin poor nations riculturalsustainabilityand food security:international
whereagricultureis so important.
In a surveyof - 1650 trade,internationaldebt, and cash crop production.
public-sectorinvestmentprojects,the rate of returnto
The global grainmarketcreatedthe theoreticalposinvestmentaveraged 11.5% in nations with a strong sibilityfora sustainableincreaseof global biophysical
bias against agricultureand 18% where the bias was CC throughtherelaxationof local resourceconstraints
moderateor low. Rates of returnon private-sector
pro- and specialization by nationsin accordance withtheir
jects in these two classes of nationswere 13 and 16%, comparative advantages. Pearce and Warford(1993;
respectively(Dasgupta 1993:272-273).
but see Daily 1994) outlinesome of thebenefitsof free
Implementationand continuationof policies thatare trade. In reality,however, one can hardly view the
plainly detrimentalnot only to agriculturebut to the world tradingsystem in an abstractframeworkthat
entireeconomy are motivatedby a set of imperatives omits the power relationshipsthat fueled the develcommon to most developing regions. These include: opmentof today's industrializedworldby lootingthen(a) rapid and massive expansionof public services; (b) colonial nations. The global tradingsystemhas facilpromotionof the industrialsector; and (c) responsive- itatedthe unsustainableexportof resourcesfrompoor
ness to powerfuland potentiallyvolatile urbaninterest to richpartsof the world.For example, India's natural
groups(Lofchie 1987). Thus, earningsfromagriculture resources were firstplunderedby the BritishEmpire
have been expended on health,education, infrastruc- and then by the institutionsremainingin its wake
ture, and employment,often throughthe creation of (Gadgil and Guha 1992).
unwieldy governmentbureaucracies. They have also
The influenceof internationaltrade on patternsof
been used for capital investment(particularlyfor im- agriculturalproduction,like thatof internationaltrade
ports)in theestablishmentof urbanmanufacturing
and in general, is fraughtwith issues of equity. While a
other industrialenterprises.Scarce agriculturalearn- basic popular misunderstanding
persiststhatfreetrade
ings have all too oftenalso been pumpedintomilitary is an unalloyed good (e.g., Anonymous1993:19), this
institutionsand other "public goods" that benefita certainlyis not the view of professionaleconomists
small fractionof the population.
familiarwiththe issue (see Samuelson 1962, and sumYet it seems thatpolitical survival, more than any mary in Ekins et al. [1994]). The ideal conditionsreother factor,has driven adverse governmentalinter- quiredto realize manyof thebenefitsof freetrade(e.g.,
vention in agriculture.In LDCs farmersare heavily internalization of externalities) are not even aptaxed, directlyand indirectly.Food prices are fixedat proached now, and are unlikelyto be approached in
artificiallylow levels to subsidize the cost of urban the future.Nonetheless,economistswould mostlyalso
labor and living(Baker 1987, Schiffand Valdez 1992). agree thatfreetrade is preferableto the alternativeof
This has induced and exacerbatedmigrationto the cit- "managed trade" (withquota and productiondecisions
ies (Naylor and Falcon 1995), therebyincreasingthe made by governmentbureaucrats).
threatof political unrestamong the urbanpoor,further Trade has not raised most poor nations out of povnecessitatingartificiallycheap food. Basically, urban erty; indeed it has caught many of them in a "spepolitical leaders,industrialists,
and workersall have an cialization trap," exporting commodities (R0pke
interestin keeping food prices as low as possible. As 1994). In orderto earn more foreignexchange, comnicely summarized by Lofchie (1987), "Thus, sup- moditiesproductionhas been increased,loweringpricpressionof theagriculturalsectoris a policy thatunites es in the face of low demand elasticityand oftenrethe total ensemble of urbaninterests."
ducing equity in land distribution.There is normally
Meanwhile, the prospectsfortransforming
LDC ag- littledomesticallygeneratedpoliticalor social pressure
ricultureinto a sustainableenterprise,or forachieving to expropriatethe holdingsof small subsistencefarmneeded increases in yields and overall production,re- ers. But when opportunitiesappear to make fortunes
main dim in the absence of credit,financialincentives from large-scale productionof foodstufffor export,
to producers,farminputs,adequate storagefacilities, subsistencefarmersare immediatelyat risk (e.g., Ritlocally based agricultural research, farm-to-marketchie 1992). Opportunitiesfortradecan thusexacerbate
This neglect of inequities withinpoor nations. Cash crop production,
roads, and otherrural infrastructure.
the agriculturalsector,and badly implementedpolicies which increasinglyfinances food imports,has often
when the sector is not so neglected (Srinivasan 1988; resultedin thefurther
of boththerural
impoverishment
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996
GRETCHEN C. DAILY AND PAUL R. EHRLICH
Ecological Applications
Vol. 6, No. 4
resourcebase thatsustains modities such as coffee,cotton,and cocoa are sure to
poor and the environmental
production(Dasgupta 1982, Glantz 1987).
deteriorate.Sustainabilityand CC could be enhanced
Changes in thepatternsofland use in LatinAmerican by investmenton the partof poor nationsin food selfcountries illustratethis effect.In Honduras, for ex- sufficiency,involving land reform,agriculturalreample, commercial cotton cultivationfor export,be- search focused on indigenous subsistence crops, and
ginningin thelate 1940s, displaced manypoor farmers infrastructure
in aid of the poorest farmers. Rich
from the most productive agriculturallands. Cotton nations,withdiversifiedeconomies,are in a muchbetproductionrequiredmanyhands,however,and growers terpositionto gambleon the "free-trade"system.Even
relied heavily on seasonal farm labor. In the 1960s, a resource-poornation such as Japan could probably
World Bank lendingpolicies shiftedeconomic incen- manage to feed its populationthroughany global agtives to cattle ranching.The managementof vast pas- riculturaldisaster in the near future.Such is not the
turesrequiredverylittlelabor comparedto thatneeded case among the poor nations;but greaterinternational
in cottonproduction.Landless laborerswere displaced equity could help and could thus raise social CC.
to the highlands,areas poorly suited to agricultural
HUMAN FERTILITY
production,while much of the best agriculturalland
Fertilityrates and death rates (in the absence of mi(48% of the valley land) was convertedto pasture.A
subsequent decline in the price of beef on the world gration)determine,at anygivenpatternofconsumption
markettheninduced a shiftto cantaloupe and shrimp. and for any given use of technologies,whetheror not
The rate of growthof productionof these two non- thepopulationwill remainbelow thecarryingcapacity
traditionalexportcropsexceeded 20% peryearforeach (CC). It is somewhatdifficultto characterizeby level
during the 1980s, at considerable environmentaland of socioeconomic organizationthe relations between
social cost. The area in shrimpfarmsincreased 100- equity and fertility
patterns.For example, lack of oldfold, forcingout small farmersand local users. The age security,a well-known individual incentive for
resourcebase supportingeach commodityin thisseries havinga socially suboptimalnumberof children,stems
of boom and bust cycles has substantiallydeteriorated frominequitiesat all levels (e.g., Glantz 1987). None(DeWalt et al. 1993, see also Larsson et al. 1994).
theless, it is useful to structureour discussion in parThe international
debtcrisishas intensified
cash crop allel to thatof food production.
production,the exploitationof naturalresources,enSocially mediated fertilityregulationis known to
vironmentaldeterioration,and rural impoverishment. occur in many organisms, including human beings.
While thereis considerablecontroversyover thecause There is also substantialevidence thatsocial mediation
of the debt crisis (reviewed in WRI [1994]; see also of humanfertility
goes back millenniaand is influenced
Lonergan 1993), its consequences cannot honestlybe by environmentalconditions,includingthe economic
disputed. Expressed in financialterms (which exter- circumstancesof reproducingwomen (e.g., Harrisand
nalizes and therebygreatlyunderestimatestrue costs Ross 1987, Ehrlich et al. 1995). In other words, deto human and environmentalwell-being), developing clines in fertilityoccur to permitrequiredinvestment
nations remittedin debt service alone U.S.$1.345 X in the nurturing
of existingchildren.Yet, in manyhu1012 to creditornationsfrom1982 to 1990. Yet, at the man populations,culturalevolution has clearly overstartof the 1990s debtornationswere collectively61% riddenreproductivemaximizationeven in that sense.
deeper in debt than in 1982. During the 1980s, sub- Many if not most people in numerouscultureshave
Saharan Africa's debt increased by 113%; thatof the fewer childrenthan they could successfullyraise to
mostimpoverisheddevelopingnationsincreased110% maturity.
(George 1992, based on OECD [OrganizationforEcoIntra-householdequityand fertility
nomic Cooperationand Development]data). Debt service now accountsforup to 87% of theexportearnings
Gender-basedequity.-In sub-SaharanAfricaand in
of poor nations (WRI 1994).
South Asia, women and childrenobtain the domestic
Withoutsome formof debt reliefand, more gener- energy of roughly 90% of households-supplied by
ally, regulationof trade,it seems doubtfulthatthedel- fuel wood and otherbiomass. As we have seen, they
eterious trendsin agriculturalproductionand human investenormouseffortintoobtainingthatfuel and wawell-being in poor nations will improve.Most devel- ter-5-6 h/din semi-aridregions.Those costs directly
oping nations have little hope of achieving food se- influencefertility
decisions. Dasgupta (1993) has outcurity or environmentalprotection while operating lined the complexitiesof the interactionsamong popwithinthepresentinternational
marketstructure;"pro- ulation growth,poverty,and environmentaldeterioratectionist"policies seem to some analystsrequiredto tion. Childrenare criticalproducergoods forfamilies
correctfortheinequitiesinherentin thepresenttrading thathave no commercialfuels and no runningwater;
in circumstancescommonto manypeople, small famsystem(see Daly and Goodland 1994).
For example,ifthegeneraldecline in per-capitagrain ilies are simplynotviable. Yet,as thepopulationgrows,
productioncontinues(Ehrlichet al. 1993, Brown et al. fuel and waterresourcesare furtherdepleted,increas1994), the termsof tradefornationsthatexportcom- ing effortis requiredto obtain ever more remotesup-
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November1996
TABLE
EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY
997
1. Indicatorsof gender-basedequity, 1980. Data are from79 "third-world"countries.(AfterWRI 1987: Table 2.3.)
Statisticson women
Total fertility
rate,TFR
>7.0
6.1-7.0
5.1-6.0
<5.0
No. of
countries
9
35
10
25
Share of paid Workingas
employment unpaid family
(%)
workers(%)
10.6
16.5
24.5
30.3
46.9
31.7
27.1
18.1
plies, and large families become even more valuable.
But since more effortis requiredto maintainthe same
standard,increasingfamilysize tends also to increase
poverty,which in turnputs keroseneor tapwatereven
furtherout of financialreach.
A key elementin thisdownwardspiralis theloading
of highcosts upon women.They bear theheaviestcosts
of reproduction(in termsof health risks and energy
expenditures),and theydo mostof theworkto support
and care forthe family.More thanthe men,theyneed
the childrento help lightenthe burdenof chores. Sensible policy interventions
would include,in additionto
healthcare, buildingwater systemsforthe ruralpoor
and bringinginto reach a sustainable supply of fuel.
Even more important,
in the long run,is the social and
economic empowermentof women.
It is now orthodoxto assume, forexample, thateducation and exposure to mass media will give women
greaterequality and reduce fertilityrates (e.g., Caldwell 1980, 1982). Some studies show that educating
women not only reduces family sizes, but is a very
cost-effectiveway of doing it, even consideringonly
instrumental
values. For example, by spendingan additional $40 000 in 1990, 1000 girls in Pakistancould
have been given an additionalyear of education. The
total fertility
rate (TFR) in Pakistanwas 6.6, and each
year of schooling cut -10% froma woman's fertility.
Thus roughly660 birthscould have been preventedfor
that $40 000-$3000 less than the estimatedcost of
familyplanningservicesto achieve thesame goal. That
year of schooling in Pakistan also would cut the child
mortalityrate by :10%, and avertthe deaths of four
women in childbirth,an estimatedadditionalbonus of
$18 000 comparedto the cost of healthcare needed to
producethosebenefits(Summers 1992 as cited in Dasgupta 1993).
It appears that a combinationof improved female
educational statusand an active family-planning
program induced the spectaculardecline in fertilitythat
occurredin Mauritius-probably amongthemostrapid
in the world. The decline froma TFR of 6.2 in 1963
to 3.4 in 1971 occurred in the absence of economic
growth(Lutz 1991), as did thedeclines in othernations
such as China and Sri Lanka.
But an elegant studyof the demographictransition
in Barbados by Handwerker(1989) shows that these
Illiteracy
rate (%)
Elementary
school
completion
rate (%)
65.7
76.9
46.0
22.6
17.3
9.7
25.5
54.3
Secondary
school
enrollment Average age
rate (%)
at marriage(yr)
24.4
14.4
26.5
49.3
20.3
18.6
21.0
21.8
factorsin themselveswill not necessarily produce a
reductionin fertility
rates,and in a real sense may not
increase equity much (except perhaps equity in years
of schooling). What may be needed are structural
changes in theeconomyso thatchildrenno longerconstitutesources of income,but are convertedinto "consumer durables"-expensive items that compete for
consumptionexpenditureswith television sets, automobiles, and the like (for a historical overview see
Harris and Ross [1987]).
In the 1950s Barbadian women viewed childbearing
as an investment.Whentheywereyoung,childrenconstituteda claim on incomefromtheirfather.Later,children gave monetarysupportthatcould give a mother
independencefrommen,and thatsupportlaterbecame
crucial for avoiding an old age of absolute poverty.
Barbados thenunderwentstructural
economic changes
with the decline of sugar (long the backbone of the
economy) and the rise of tourismand manufacturing.
This allowed women to increasetheirstatusby finding
work independentof men (providingequity between
men and women). The decline in the investmentcharacterof childrenand the concomitantincrease in their
role as a consumptionexpense naturallyresultedin a
lowering of the fertilityrate. Education and family
planning alone apparentlydid not induce the change
in fertility.
So it seems clear that increasingeconomic equity
between sexes throughwage labor (and alteringthe
economic consequences of childbearing)may induce a
reductionin fertility
rates.In general,thereis a strong
association betweenfertility
rates and a varietyof indicatorsof gender-basedequity,includingrates of infantmortality,
femalelabor forceparticipation,and female education (Table 1).
The relationshipbetweenequityand CC is moredifficultto evaluate,however.Considera simpleexample.
Suppose therewere gross inequitybetween men and
women in a societywithan average per-capitaimpact,
as measured by energyuse (see Daily et al. 1994) of
2 kW-slightly below the global average today, and
roughlythe average consumptionratein Mexico. Suppose furtherthat a combinationof dietary discrimination(commonin poor nations;see, e.g., WorldBank
1991) and higher energy intensityof predominantly
male activities (everythingfrom resource severance
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998
GRETCHEN C. DAILY AND PAUL R. EHRLICH
Ecological Applications
Vol. 6, No. 4
and manufacturingto drivingmotorcyclesfor enter- land sales were infrequentand did not increase after
tainment)made the average male energyuse 2.25 kW naturaldisasters.In Bangladesh, male childrenplay a
and the average female use 1.75 kW. If equity were crucial role as "risk insurance"; in theIndian villages,
achieved by ways that increased female use to 2.25, childrenare "largely redundantas a source of risk inthe entire population's impact would be raised by surance" (Cain 1981:50). The TFR in theBangladeshi
12.5%. Of course, if the population were growingat village was, at the timeof the study,roughlytwo chiltoday's global average rate of 1.6%, and the achieve- dren above thatin the Indian villages.
In general,economic equity among households apmentof equitydroppedits totalfertility
ratefrom,say,
threeto twochildrenand held itthere,thehigherimpact pears to be associated with lower fertilityrates and
due to equitywould seem a trivialprice to pay in view greatersustainability.Is therea trade-offbetweenthe
of thereductionin impactthatwould resultfromeven- sorts of equity inherentin greaterpolitical and civil
tuallyachieving a stationarypopulationand startinga liberties and the potentialfor achieving greatereconomic equity among households? In short,is a relagradual populationdecline.
Equity among people of differentages.-Even in tivelyrepressivecentralgovernment(e.g., China, Sinwealthycountries,older people oftenfindthemselves gapore) more likelyto bringabout rapid economic deof
in financialdifficulty
relative to youngermembersof velopment?Based on therecordof industrialization
society.In poor ones (as in Barbados 50 yrago), there parts of East Asia in recentdecades and the comparis oftenno old-age securityexcept forchildrens'will- ativelyslow (or nonexistent)industrialdevelopmentof
ingnessand abilityto supporttheirparents.Thus "par- other parts of the world, the argumentis sometimes
ents will not stop having childrenuntil they believe made thatpolitical and civil rightsmustbe sacrificed
thatthosetheyalreadyhave are goingto survive" (Tay- to achieve rapid improvementsin income, education,
lor and Hall 1967). The conclusion drawnfromthisis health,etc.
oftenthatimprovingchild survivalwill reducefertility, Dasgupta (1993) reportsa compilationof political
since parentsneed not so much fear "age discrimina- and civil-rightsindexes and rates of improvementof
livingstandardsin 51 of theworld'smostimpoverished
tion" as the years pass.
While this is an intuitivelyattractiveidea, thereis nations. His analysis shows that political and civil
great disagreementon the importanceof childrenas rightsare in fact positivelycorrelatedwith improveold-age securityin developing countries(e.g., Nugent ments in a whole series of measures of well-being.
1985, Abernethy1993), despitesome qualifiedsuccess Oddly, the one variable thatstandsout is adultliteracy
at reducingbirthrates throughthe institutionof other rate,which is negativelycorrelatedwithpolitical and
social securitymeasures (Ridker 1980). Nonetheless, civil liberties.He speculates thatthis could reflectthe
it seems reasonableto assume thatincreasedage equity use of literacyin governmentpropaganda to promote
the acceptance of establishedorder.Overall, to theexwould lead to at least some decrease in fertility.
tentthatthe measuredimprovementsin well-beingare
Equity betweenhouseholds and fertility
associated with greatereconomic equity (at least inIn this section, we brieflyconsider two aspects of ternationally,if not always at lower levels of social
the relation between equity and fertilityat the inter- organization), economic equity and social freedom
household level. The firstis economic equity and the seem positivelyassociated.
second sociopolitical equity. Financial inequity beEquity among regions or groups,
tween households has long been associated with low
and fertility
fertility
among therelativelyfew richhouseholds,and
Here, as discussed above, the most significantgeohigh fertilityamong the numerouspoor. In part this
inequitywas fosteredby a desire among the rich to graphic differencesprobably lie between relatively
avoid a shortageof labor and thusupwardpressureon well-offcitydwellersand thoselivingin grindingpovin livingstanwages (e.g., Harris and Ross 1987:124).
ertyin the countryside.This differential
Equity among households in the distributionof ag- dards is an importantproximatecause of theextremely
riculturalland (also essentiallyeconomic) can have a rapid growth(due to migration)of cities. In China,
large impact on sustainabilityof human activitiesand whereinequalitybetweenruraland urbanpopulations
upon CC itself.DemographerMead Cain of the Pop- pervades job opportunities,education, food and fuel
ulationCouncil made an interesting
comparisonof four availability,medical services, and housing,the rateof
villages on the Indian subcontinent(Cain 1981). One urbanization has greatly accelerated (Wakabayashi
was in Bangladesh,and had undergonea sharpdecrease 1990). The one-child family policy has become the
in equityof landholding;the otherthreewere in India standardin large coastal urbanareas, buthas been less
and had seen a substantialimprovementin the equity successfulin ruralareas (Tien 1992). This sortof ferof land distribution.He found out thatin Bangladesh tilitydifferential
is widespreadin poor nations;itsscale
selling land was a prime way of adjustingto natural is largelydependenton thecomparativefamilysystems
disasters,and that the chance of being forced to sell of rural and city dwellers (e.g., Cain and McNicoll
was inverselyrelatedto thesize of theholding.In India, 1988).
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November1996
EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY
999
A second sort of inequity that influencesfertility nomic tranformation,
shiftingfrombeing primarilya
ratesoccurs in thedistribution
of government
resources commoditysupplier(sugar) to a morediversifiedeconand tourism.That greatly
among competingpublic goods that benefitdifferent omyrootedin manufacturing
groups of people. A starkexample of this is the allo- improvedthe relative economic position of Barbados
cation in India in 1988 of 21.5% of the government and, as outlinedabove (see Intra-householdequityand
budget to militarypurposes, 1.8% to healthcare, and fertility:Gender-based equity),allowed an extremely
2.9% to education. In Pakistan the figuresare 29.5%, rapid demographictransition.In 1994 Barbados had
0.9%, and 2.6% to military,health,and educationpro- raised itsper-capitaGNP to U.S.$6530 (morethandougrams,respectively(WorldBank 1990 as cited in Das- ble that of Russia or Hungary) and lowered its total
gupta 1993). Military expenditures in developing fertilityrate to 1.8 (equal to the average of northern
nationscollectivelyconsumedroughlyU.S.$170 x 109 Europe) (Population ReferenceBureau 1994).
Unfortunately,
however,even if developmentof toper year in the late 1980s (Renner 1990).
Here inequityis manifestin boththeproductionand day's poor nationsin themannerof today'srichnations
rates to replacement
theconsumptionof thesegoods, as theyare notequally would eventuallyreduce fertility
usefulto different
people who mightneverthelesshave or below, this approach to equity would not be bioequal access to them.Based on the discussion above, physicallysustainable(see below, Conclusions). On the
in otherhand, reallocation of available resources to init is evident thatthe comparativeunderinvestment
healthand educationis associated withrelativelyhigh crease equity within nations could permitenormous
rates.Kerala Statein India is famousforhaving stridesto be made in reducingfertility,
fertility
leading to a
reduced fertilityrates even thoughthe populationre- closing of the rich-poor gap in quality of life (if not
mains verypoor,by investingin health,education,and in crude GNP) as the case of China clearly shows.
Interestingly,
amongregionsof thatgiantnation,the
female empowerment.
1982 census revealed thatthe negativecorrelationbeEquity among nations,and fertility
tweenincome and familysize in thatnationwas breakThere is a strongnegative correlationbetween the ing down; higherincomes were allowing people more
per capita GNP (gross nationalproduct)of nationsand latitude to ignore governmentalsmall-familyincenthehistoricaldevelopmentin tives and raising fertilityrates (Birdsall and Jamison
theirTFRs. Furthermore,
today's industrializednationsgenerallyinvolved a de- 1983). Thus while interpersonaland interfamilialeqcline in mortalityratesfollowed by commensuratede- uity clearly made a powerfulcontributionto the draclines in fertility
rates.The entireprocess of progress- matic decline in nationalTFR in the 1970s, increased
ing froma situationof high birthand death rates to internationalequity (as China grows more prosperous
one of falling death rates and high birthrates, and relative to industrializednations in the 1990s) may
finallyto one of low birthand death rates,came to be place an upward pressureon birthrates.
called the "demographic transition."Since the tranCONCLUSIONS
sition apparentlyhad occurred in step with industriOur characterizationof aspects of the complex realization in Europe and NorthAmerica,demographers
concluded that the development process somehow lationshipsbetween equity and sustainabilityand becaused it, althoughtheywere not sure how (E. van de tween equity and carryingcapacity (CC) leads to the
Walle and J. Knodel. Unpublished manuscriptpre- followinggeneral conclusion: increasingequityat all
sentedat 1967 conference,InternationalUnion forthe levels of organizationabove conditionsprevailing toScientificStudy of Populations,Sydney,Australia).
day would indeed enhance sustainabilityand CC.
Curious exceptionsexist in the record,such as fer- Thereis one majorexceptionto ourgeneralconclusion,
tilitydeclines in France and in easternEuropean coun- however. Equity in consumer lifestylebetween and
tries before industrializationhad begun. The French withinnationscannot be achieved globally by leveling
decline also occurredlong before a decline in infant up consumptionfrom the bottom.The Brundtlandremortalitywas recognized,calling intoquestionthe no- port's (Brundtland1987) notion that the scale of the
tion thatincreasingthe chances of children'ssurvival humanenterprisecan be expanded 5 to 10 times over
lowers desired family sizes (Rollet-Echalier 1990, the next decades reveals only a profoundmisunderAbernethy1993). Still, in the 1950s and 1960s, social standingof the biophysical limits to CC (e.g., Clark
scientistswere confidentthata similarpath would in 1989, Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1991, Daly and Goodland
due course be followed by the developing nations as 1994). Considerable de-developmentof the overdethey industrialized.This led to the idea that "devel- veloped countrieswill be required-that is, controlling
runawayconsumptionin order to reduce the physical
opmentis the best contraceptive."
It can be a good one. As the case of Barbados ex- throughput
of theireconomies (Boulding 1966, Ehrlich
emplifies(Handwerker1989), theachievmentof great- and Ehrlich 1970, Ehrlich et al. 1977, Holdren 1991,
er equity between nations is often associated with a Ehrlichet al. 1995).
reductionin the fertilityof the nation "catching up."
Fortunatelymany importanttypes of equity do not
Between 1955 and 1965, Barbados underwentan eco- requireincreasingaggregateconsumption-or at least
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1000
GRETCHEN C. DAILY AND PAUL R. EHRLICH
notincreasingit verymuch.Examples includegenuine
land reform,improvedaccess to educationand job opportunities,and guaranteeingaccess by all sexuallyactivepersonsto moderncontraceptionand safe abortion.
Finally, we end on a caveat regardingthe "fog of
politics" (Ehrlich 1994). It is clear that,in the foreseeable future,the world will suffer(as it always has)
fromincompetentand venal leaders,bureaucraticdeadlock, populist whims, incomplete information,etc.
Plans for such measures as insertingenvironmental
safeguardsintotradetreatiesso as to increaseCC (e.g.,
Young 1994) are oftennot going to work out in practice. Civilization,in our view, is unlikelyto persistif
its major strategyis to fine-tunethe presentsystemin
the hope thatsomethingapproachingperpetualgrowth
can be achieved. Instead it is imperativeto findways
of reducingthe scale of the human enterpriseand to
build in formsof insuranceso thata highfrequencyof
ecological "mistakes," even serious ones, will not
bringtheentireedificecrashingdown. That is no small
orderin itself.Those who are strugglingtoday to increase equity in various ways can take heartthatthey
are probablybothhelpingto increase CC and empoweringHomo sapiens to end today'sovershootand return
to sustainable numbersand lifestyles(Ehrlich et al.
1995).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Themanuscript
was greatly
improved
bycomments
kindly
UniprovidedbyAnneEhrlichandWalterFalcon(Stanford
versity),Lisa and TimothyDaniel (Bureauof Economics,
FederalTradeCommission),
Garrett
Hardin(University
of
Californiaat Santa Barbara),and RichardNorgaard(Uniof California
at Berkeley).Thispaperoriginated
in a
versity
discussionbetweenG. C. Daily and JohnHoldrenof the
of California,
for
University
Berkeley.We are verygrateful
thesupport
oftheWinslow,
Heinz,andW.AltonJonesFoundationsandPeterand HelenBing.
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