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Mitt Romney’s difficulties also pose threat for McDonnell, Allen - The Washington Post
10/4/12 10:25 AM
In Virginia, Romney’s difficulties also pose a
big threat for McDonnell, Allen
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By Robert McCartney, Published: October 3
Mitt Romney’s weakness as a presidential candidate in Virginia so far threatens to derail the
political ambitions of the state’s two most prominent Republicans, Gov. Robert F.
McDonnell and U.S. Senate candidate George Allen.
If Romney loses the state next month to President Obama, as recent polls suggest he will,
the negative fallout would be considerable for top GOP politicians in the Old Dominion.
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A Romney defeat in Virginia would spoil
McDonnell’s reputation as the politician
who revived the state GOP, starting with his
landslide election in 2009.
1
It probably also would mean that Allen
would lose his second straight U.S. Senate
race, this time to fellow former governor
Timothy Kaine (D). Independent analysts
note that Allen’s poll numbers have been
moving in line with Romney’s.
“Allen declined in lock step with Romney.
When Romney went down, Allen went
down,” said Bob Holsworth, a retired
political science professor who is now a
partner in the Richmond public-service
consulting firm DecideSmart.
The Virginia GOP has time to turn it around, of course. Romney’s strong performance in the
first presidential debate on Wednesday evening might have been a start. (Almost all of this
column was written before the debate.)
The Democrats’ advantage also is small, according to some polls. Both parties say the races
remain up for grabs. They predict intense, street-by-street efforts by both sides to mobilize
supporters.
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Still, assuming the surveys are correct, Obama’s edge for now in Virginia is ominous for the
GOP.
For McDonnell, a presidential defeat in Virginia would tarnish his record as the man who
stopped the surge of Democratic victories in the state from 2001 to 2008. First, he led the
GOP to the 2009 sweep of the offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Then he led it to pick up three U.S. House seats at the Democrats’ expense in the 2010
congressional elections and to take back effective control of the state Senate in 2011.
The popular governor has put his formidable political organization to work on Romney’s
behalf. He also has a personal interest in the race: If Romney loses at the national level,
McDonnell has no chance of getting a Cabinet post, like attorney general, either before or
after he’s forced to leave the governorship in early 2014. (Virginia governors, by law, cannot
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Mitt Romney’s difficulties also pose threat for McDonnell, Allen - The Washington Post
10/4/12 10:25 AM
serve consecutive terms.)
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A Romney defeat would also revive criticism that McDonnell should have done more to curb
the Virginia GOP’s appetite for restricting abortion rights.
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The Republicans are on the defensive partly because the gender gap — in which Democrats
have a sizable advantage among women — is growing.
The gender gap results partly from differences between the sexes over economic policies and
health care. Abortion rights are also part of the divide, however, and nowhere more than in
Virginia in the past year.
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The state attracted national attention when the GOP-controlled legislature pushed through
a requirement that women desiring abortions must first have an ultrasound.
“Democrats have inundated voters with messaging about the GOP-led ultrasound initiative,
and they have tied Romney to the social right’s unpopular policies,” said Mark Rozell, a
public-policy professor at George Mason University.
The Democrats’ current advantage in the polls might seem surprising, given that they lost
three straight statewide elections from 2009 through 2012.
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One big reason explains the apparent discrepancy, however, and points to why turnout is so
critical in the state this year.
A lot more people vote in Virginia in presidential years than in other years. And the people
who show up only in presidential years are disproportionately Democratic, according to
independent observers.
For example, turnout was 74 percent in 2008. That was when Obama became the first
Democrat to carry Virginia since 1964. Turnout plunged to 44 percent in 2010. Republicans
won big in the congressional races.
The every-four-years voters tend to be nonwhite, lower-income and younger — all groups
that usually break for the Democrats. Ensuring that they turn out this year is a top priority
for the Obama and Kaine campaigns.
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“You have two entirely different electorates,” Holsworth said. “Obama and Kaine have to
have this larger electorate [to win]. They’re going to need to get the intermittent voters to
the polls.”
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Virginia Democrats remain concerned that something unforeseen could change the
dynamic. One party strategist listed his worries as a debate gaffe, a stock market plunge or a
foreign crisis.
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Barring any of that, however, the Democrats’ “presidential majority” in Virginia currently
looks likely to reverse the GOP’s three-year winning streak. And McDonnell and Allen could
well be looking for new career paths.
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I discuss local issues Friday at 8:50 a.m. on WAMU (88.5 FM). For earlier columns, go to
washingtonpost.com/
mccartney.
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Mitt Romney’s difficulties also pose threat for McDonnell, Allen - The Washington Post
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10/4/12 10:25 AM
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$1,799 - $4,020, Studio-2 bedrooms
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OMG1 wrote:
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Alexandria, VA
Ugh, what a trifecta of anti-women candidates...throw Ryan and Akin into the mix and you have an awardwinning G(r)O(u)P of politicians who couldn't care less about ANY womens' issues, whether it be poverty,
children, health care, or crime (i.e. our lady parts will keep us from getting pregnant if raped...tell that bedtime
story to the 12-year old girl that was raped and resulted in her bearing a son, who became the 14-year-old that
recently murdered his 2-year old half-sibling.) How any non-Stepford woman with a half a brain could vote
Republican is beyond comprehension. At the end of the day, these men will not protect anyone, unless they are
their corporate partners and affect their income levels.
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Jonathan Erickson wrote:
7:49 AM EDT
Romneys coattails look a whole lot better after the poor performance by Obama last evening. The preempting of
Obamas failure last night isn't working. as Ashton says Obama you just got punked!
wabblt wrote:
10/3/2012 11:54 PM EDT
I sincerely hope that Allen and McDonnell go down in flames, but I especially hope that we get the ignorant law
cowboy Cuccinelli out of office once and for all.
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Mitt Romney’s difficulties also pose threat for McDonnell, Allen - The Washington Post
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