Population Projections for Republic of China (Taiwan): 2016‐2060
Department of Human Resources Development
National Development Council
Sep. 2016
Declining marriage and fertility rates
 Following the increase in educational and job opportunities for women, as
well as changes in family values, late marriage and childbirth become more
frequently, not only shortening the period of women being able to give birth,
but also reducing the number of children born in Taiwan.
Year
1985
2000
2005
2010
2015
Median Age at
First Marriage of
Women (years)
24.4
25.7
27.1
28.8
29.7
Percentage of Currently Married Women to Total Women
(%)
Total
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-49
60.0
18.8
80.8
90.5
89.7
53.8
8.5
62.0
80.6
80.8
49.2
5.1
49.3
75.5
77.3
45.1
2.7
41.6
69.7
73.2
42.8
2.4
38.7
65.5
68.8
Source: Ministry of the Interior, 2015 Demographic Fact Book R.O.C.
Year
1985
2000
2005
2010
2015
Average Age
at Birth of
First Child
(years)
24.5
26.7
27.7
29.6
30.6
Source : As above.
Percent Distribution of Births
Peak period of
Total
by Birth Order (%)
women’s
Fertility Rate
childbearing
(per female) 1st born 2nd born 3rd born
age (years)
25~29
1.9
40.3
34.9
24.8
25~29
1.7
46.6
36.7
16.7
25~29
1.1
51.2
37.4
11.4
30~34
0.9
53.1
36.1
10.8
30~34
1.2
51.3
38.0
10.7
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Trends in the birth rate and death rate
 If population changes from international migration are not included, after
the curves of the crude birth rate and crude death rate intersect in 2022, the
population will shift from naturally increasing to naturally decreasing.
 Taking into consideration future net migration of approximately 12,000
people, the change from positive to negative growth of the total population
is delayed.
Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.
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Trends in total population growth
 Negative population growth will occur in 2021 at the earliest and in 2025 at
the latest.
 The population will reach 23.7-23.8 million at its peak, representing growth
of 120,000-260,000 over 2016.
 By 2060, the population will have fallen to approximately 17.3-19.7 million,
approximately 73.6%-83.6% of the population in 2016.
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Trends in population of broad age groups
 The proportion of people aged 15-64 years has peaked in 2012 and began to
fall in 2013.
 The proportion of old-age population will exceed that of young-age
population in 2017 and continue to rise.
 In comparison with 2016, the total population in 2060 will be reduced by
21.0%, with the population of children and those in their prime years falling
by 43.4% and 44.2%, and the elderly population increased by 131.0%.
Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.
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Projected change in population, 2016‐2060  By 2060, Taiwan's population will decrease by 4.9 million people.
 Among these, the number of those aged 0-14 will decrease by 1.4 million,
the number of those between 15-64 by 7.6 million, and the number of those
aged 65 and over will increase by 4.1 million.
Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.
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Speed of population ageing
 Societies in which those 65 years and older account for 7%, 14%, and 20%
are referred to internationally as aging societies, aged societies, and superaged societies respectively.
 Taiwan became an aging Society in 1993, and is projected to become an
aged society and super-aged society in 2018 and 2026 respectively.
Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.
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Trends in the dependency ratios
 The total dependent population that every 100 persons of working age
needs to support is approximately 36 people in 2016. With the rapid growth
of the elderly population, this figure will increase to approximately 93
people by 2060.
Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.
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Fewer young people to take care of the elderly
 The total dependent population that every 100 persons of working-age
population needs to support is approximately 36 people in 2016. With the
rapid growth of the elderly population, this figure will increase to
approximately 93 people by 2060.
 In 2016, there are approximately 5.6 people in their prime to support one
elderly person; by 2060, the number will have fallen to 1.3 people in their
prime to support one elderly person
1980
2016
2060
Dependency ratio
Dependency ratio
Dependency ratio
Potential support ratio
Potential support ratio
Potential support ratio
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Population pyramid
 The 2016 population pyramid is lantern-shaped, being small at the upper
and lower ends and large in the middle, indicating a plentiful labor supply.
 The 2060 population pyramid takes the shape of an inverted bell, being wide
at the top and narrow at the bottom, indicating a heavier burden on society.
Note: This graph shows the results of medium-variant projections.
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Trends in total fertility rates
 In general, Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong have observed upturn of the
fertility rates.
 In response to a "year of the dragon" (traditionally considered a good year
for having children), Taiwan's fertility rate grew slightly in 2012. The future
trend remains to be seen.
Sources: Taiwan (Republic of China) - “Statistical Yearbook of Interior”. Japan - National
Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Korea - National Statistical
Office. Singapore - Singapore Department of Statistics. Hong Kong - Census and
Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
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Proportion of population aged 65 and over
 From 1960 to 2015, the proportion of the elderly in Taiwan has been similar
to that of Korea, and less than that in the other countries listed in the graph.
 In 2060, the proportion of the elderly in Taiwan, Japan, and Korea will be
higher than that in the other countries listed in the graph.
Sources: Republic of China - This report. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. United Stated - US Census
Bureau. United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy - Eurostat.
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Proportion of working‐age population
 Compared with other countries, the proportion of population aged 15-64
years is still at its peak in Taiwan and Korea.
 In the future, the proportion of working age population in Taiwan will fall
drastically and will be lower than that in the most countries around 2045,
and along with Japan and Korea will be lower than most countries in 2060.
Sources: Republic of China - This report. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. United Stated - US Census
Bureau. United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy- Eurostat.
13
Median age of population
 In 2015, the median age of the population of Taiwan was 39.9 years old,
ranking seventh among the countries listed in the graph.
 In 2060, the median age of the population of Taiwan will be 57.0 years old,
higher than other countries except for Korea listed in the graph.
(Projected figures)
Germany Japan1
Italy
France
Korea
United Republic Kingdom of China
USA
Sources: Republic of China - This report. Japan - National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research. Korea - National Statistical Office. United Stated - US Census
Bureau. United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy - Eurostat.
Note: 1. The data for Japan is average age.
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Policy Implications
Perfect Environment for Raising Children
Decrease in
Birth Rate
Educational Resources
Slowdown
Declining Population
&
Ageing Population
Labor Market
Ageing Society Status
Coming Early
Increase in
Lifespan
Other Related Policies, such as Industry, Finance, Welfare, Healthcare, National Spatial Development, Housing, and Diverse Society.
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