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Tracking Access to Electricity
88060
A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY PRACTICE
THE BOTTOM LINE
Between 1990 and 2010,
1.7 billion people gained
access to electricity, while the
global population expanded
by 1.6 billion. Most of the
incremental electrification
occurred in urban areas.
Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa
was an exception. There, growth
in the electrified population
was slower than growth
in population. Worldwide,
1.2 billion people—17 percent
of the global population—still
lacked access to electricity
in 2010. About 85 percent of
those without access live in
rural areas; 87 percent are
found in Sub-Saharan Africa and
Southern Asia.
Sudeshna Ghosh
Banerjee is a senior
economist in the World
Bank’s Energy Practice
Elisa Portale is an
energy economist in the
same practice.
Tracking Access to Electricity
Why is this issue important?
Electrification yields significant social and economic
returns
Access to electricity in flexible, reliable, and sustainable forms brings
a range of social and economic benefits, enabling people to leap
from poverty to a better future, enhancing the quality of household
life, and stimulating the broader economy. Modern energy is essential for the provision of health care; clean water and sanitation; and
reliable and efficient lighting, heating, cooking, mechanical power,
transportation, and telecommunications.
Achieving universal access to modern energy services is one of
the three complementary objectives of the Sustainable Energy for All
(SE4ALL) initiative. Formally launched in the UN General Assembly in
September 2012 and co-chaired by the president of the World Bank
Group and the UN Secretary-General, SE4ALL calls governments,
businesses, and civil society to address urgent energy challenges by
2030 (SE4ALL 2012).
To support the achievement of these goals, a starting point
must be set, indicators developed, and a framework established to
track those indicators until 2030. The World Bank and International
Energy Agency have led a consortium of 15 international agencies to
produce data on access to electricity for the SE4ALL Global Tracking
Framework. Launched in 2013, the framework defines electricity
access as the presence of an electricity connection in the household
as typically reported through household surveys. The report is underpinned by several databases, including the World Bank Electrification
Database (box 1).
Box 1. Assembling the data on access to electricity
Various household sources were leveraged to establish a historical
series of data on electrification in 212 countries between 1990 and 2010.
Data were collected from various sources and nationally representative
household surveys (including national censuses). Survey sources
included Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Living Standards
Measurement Surveys (LSMS), Multi-Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), the
World Health Survey (WHS), other nationally developed and implemented
surveys, and data from various government agencies (for example,
ministries of energy and utilities)—all captured in the World Bank Global
Electrification Database. While utility data are a valuable complement to
household survey data, they provide a different (supply side) perspective
on access and cannot be expected to yield the same results as
demand-side data. In particular, utility data may fail to capture (i) highly
decentralized forms of electrification in rural areas and (ii) illegal access to
electricity in urban areas.
Surveys such as the DHS and the LSMS/income-expenditure surveys are
typically conducted every 3–4 years, whereas most censuses are held
every 10 years. Thus, some countries have gaps in available data in any
given year. There are 42 countries with no data points; for those countries,
the weighted regional average was used as an estimate for access to
electricity in each of the data periods. For the 170 countries with between
one and three data points, missing data were estimated using a model
with region, country, and time variables.
2
Tracking Access to Electricity
Figure 1. The electricity access deficit in 2010 (in millions)
Figure 2a. Top 20 access-deficit countries: home to 889 million of
the 1.2 billion people in the world who lack access to electricity
Other
157
“Sub-Saharan Africa and
Oceania are the only world
regions where most of
With access,
5.7 billion,
83%
Without access,
1.17 billion,
17%
SSA
590
SA
418
the population remains
nonelectrified.”
Rural
993
Urban
173
Source: World Bank Global Electrification Database 2012.
Note: The regional groupings used in this figure, and in the note generally, are those used by the
United Nations. Australia and New Zealand are included in the developed countries group (and
not in Oceania). CCA = Caucasus and Central Asia; DEV = industrialized world; EA = Eastern
Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; NA = Northern Africa; SEA = Southeastern Asia;
SA = Southern Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; WA = Western Asia.
India
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
Congo, DR
Tanzania
Kenya
Sudan
Uganda
Myanmar
Mozambique
Afghanistan
Korea DPR
Madagascar
Philippines
Pakistan
Burkina Faso
Niger
Indonesia
Malawi
306.2
82.4
66.6
63.9
55.9
38.2
31.2
30.9
28.5
24.6
19.9
18.5
18.0
17.8
15.6
15.0
14.3
14.1
14.0
13.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Access deficit (millions of people)
Source: World Bank Global Electrification Database 2012.
What is the current level of access?
Three-quarters of the global access deficit was
located in 20 countries in 2010
In 2010, 1.2 billion people—17 percent of the global population—still
lacked access to electricity. About 85 percent of those without
access to electricity live in rural areas; 87 percent are found in SubSaharan Africa and Southern Asia (figure 1).
Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania are the only world regions
where most of the population remains nonelectrified. Urban
areas have achieved more than a 90 percent electrification rate in
every region except Sub-Saharan Africa (63 percent of the urban
population) and Oceania (65 percent). Rural areas have achieved
more than 60 percent electrification in all regions except these two,
where only 14 percent of the rural population is electrified. Thus, the
electrification challenge remains concentrated in rural areas and in
Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.
The top 20 countries with the greatest access deficits measured
in absolute terms are home to 889 million people who lack access to
electricity (figure 2a), more than two-thirds of the global total. Eight
Figure 2b. The 20 countries with the lowest rates of access to
electricity
Zambia
Mauritania
Lesotho
Mali
Congo, DR
Mozambique
Tanzania
Uganda
PNG
Madagascar
Burkina Faso
Sierra Leone
Rwanda
CAR
Niger
Malawi
Burundi
Liberia
Chad
South Sudan
1.5
0
2
4.1
3.5
4
9.5
9.3
8.7
5.3
6
8
10
10.8
12
13.1
12.1
14
15.2
15.0
14.8
14.6
14.5
14.3
16
17.0
16.6
18
18.5
18.2
20
Access rate (%)
Source: World Bank Global Electrification Database 2012.
Note: Congo, DR = Democratic Republic of Congo; Korea, DPR = Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea; PNG = Papua New Guinea; CAR = Central African Republic.
3
Tracking Access to Electricity
“India’s nonelectrified
population is equivalent to
the total population of the
United States.”
are in Asia and twelve in Africa. India’s share is the largest—India’s
nonelectrified population is equivalent to the total population of
the United States. Of the 20 countries with the lowest electrification
rates, 19 are in Sub-Saharan Africa (figure 2b). Moreover, half of
the globe’s rural dwellers without access to electricity are found
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Across the subcontinent, 28 countries have
access rates of less than 30 percent. In seven, the rate is lower than
10 percent.
How has access evolved historically?
Growth in access to electricity has slightly exceeded
population growth
The share of the global population with access to electricity rose
from 76 percent (3.9 billion people) in 1990 to approximately
83 percent (5.7 billion people) in 2010. Southern Asia and Southeast
Asia all witnessed dramatic progress, registering increases of 24
and 17 percentage points, respectively, over the two decades.
Sub-Saharan Africa followed far behind, with an increase from 23 to
32 percent during the same period (table 1).
Although the absolute number of people with access to electricity increased by 1.7 billion between 1990 and 2010, the global
population grew by 1.6 billion, holding back the increase in the share
of the population with access, which rose from 76 to 83 percent
during the period.
Most of the incremental electrification over the period 1990–2010
occurred in urban areas, where electrification grew by 1.7 percent
of the population annually, about twice the rate in rural areas (0.8).
However, even with this significant expansion, electrification only
just kept pace with rapid urbanization, so that the overall urban
electrification rate remained relatively stable, growing from 94 to
95 percent over the period. By contrast, more modest growth in rural
populations allowed the rural electrification rate to increase more
steeply, from 61 to 70 percent, despite a much lower overall level of
electrification in the rural space (figure 3).
The 20 countries that made the most progress between 1990
and 2010 provided electricity to an additional 1.3 billion people.
India made particularly rapid progress, electrifying an average of
24 million people annually since 1990, with an annual growth rate
Table 1. Rate of electrification, by region, 1990–2010
% of total population with access to electricity
1990
2000
2010
Oceania
21
23
25
Sub-Saharan Africa
23
26
32
Southern Asia
52
63
75
Southeast Asia
71
81
88
Northern Africa
85
92
99
Latin America and Caribbean
88
92
95
Western Asia
89
89
91
East Asia
93
96
98
Caucasus and Central Asia
95
99
100
Industrialized world
100
100
100
WORLD
76
79
83
Source: World Bank Global Electrification Database 2012.
of 1.9 percent. The global annual average increase in access was
1.3 percent (figure 4). However, even among the fastest-moving
countries, none has been able to increase electrification by more
than about three percentage points of the population each year.
What will access look like in 2030?
Population growth and urbanization will continue to
shape the evolution of access to electricity
The future is increasingly urban. The world population is expected
to increase by 2.3 billion between 2011 and 2050, reaching 9 billion
in 2050. By then, about 6.3 billion people will live in urban areas. The
rural population is expected to start slowing in about a decade, and
by 2030 there will be fewer people living in rural areas than today.
The urban populations of Asia and Africa will increase dramatically—
by 1.6 billion and 0.9 billion, respectively (UN 2011). As a result, it will
become increasingly important to support urban electrification with
new and innovative solutions.
4
Tracking Access to Electricity
Figure 3. Global and regional progress in access to electricity, 1990–2010
Population with access in 1990
Incremental increase in access, 1990–2010
Rural
Population without access in 2010
Total
increased by 1.7 billion
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
between 1990 and 2010,
8000
EA
the increase in the share
SSA
of the population with
LAC
SEA
WA
Population with access in 1990
NA
Incremental increase in access, 1990–2010
Population without access in 2010
CCA
Oceania
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Population (million)
Source: WHO Global Household Energy Database 2012.
Note: SA = Southern Asia; EA = East Asia; DEV = industrialized world; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; SEA = Southeast Asia;
LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; WA = Western Asia; NA = Northern Africa; CCA = Caucasus and Central Asia.
Figure 4. The 20 countries with the greatest annual increases in access to electricity, 1990–2010
Incremental Total Population (million)
4%
Annual growth in access (%)
20
3%
15
2%
10
1%
5
0
Source: World Bank Global Electrification Database 2012.
i
Sa
ud
ia
iop
Eth
lom
bia
Co
q
Ira
d
an
ail
Th
uth
So
y
rke
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co
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t
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eri
es
Bra
zil
h
es
ng
lad
ia
tan
Ba
Pa
kis
es
on
Ind
Ind
ia
0%
Annual growth in Access (%)
Incremental Access (million)
25
Population (million)
access.”
7000
DEV
ina
by 1.6 billion, holding back
6000
SA
Ch
the global population grew
5000
Population (million)
pin
access to electricity
ilip
number of people with
Urban
Ph
“Although the absolute
5
Tracking Access to Electricity
Figure 5. Number of people without access to electricity in rural
and urban areas, by region, 2010–2030
Rest of world
South-Eastern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
1,200
“It will become increasingly
electrification with new and
innovative solutions.”
1,000
Million people
important to support urban
is likely to proceed much more slowly. Access to electricity will
improve in relative terms in all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa,
where the current trend will worsen over time. Sub-Saharan Africa
is projected to overtake developing Asia in a few years as the region
with the largest population without access to electricity.
800
References
600
400
200
0
2010
Rural
2010
Urban
2020
Rural
2020
Urban
2030
Rural
2030
Urban
Source: Based on the “New Policies Scenario” presented in IEA (2012).
The number of people lacking access to electricity around the
world will decline to just over 990 million in 2030, around 12 percent
of the global population at that time under the assumptions of the
IEA New Policies Scenario, which anticipates the continuation and
implementation of currently announced policies. About 1.7 billion
people will gain access to electricity by 2030, but that achievement
will be diluted, to a large extent, by global population growth (figure
5). Whereas urban residents without electricity will be a very small
proportion of the total urban population in 2030, rural electrification
IEA (International Energy Agency). 2012. World Energy Outlook 2012.
Paris
SE4ALL (Sustainable Energy for All Initiative). 2012. In Support of the
Objective to Achieve Universal Access to Modern Energy Services
by 2030. Technical Report of Task Force 1: New York. http://www
.sustainableenergyforall.org/about-us.
UN, 2011. World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision. New York.
http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf.
World Bank. 2013. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for
All. Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/
en/2013/05/17765643/global-tracking-framework-vol-3-3main-report.
This note is based on chapter 2 of the Global Tracking Framework prepared
by the Sustainable Energy for All Initiative and published by the World
Bank in 2013. The GTF underwent Bankwide peer review; reviewers
included Dana Rysankova, Jeff Chelsky, Mohua Mukherjee, and Todd
Johnson. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/05/17765643/
global-tracking-framework-vol-3-3-main-report
6
Tracking Access to Electricity
MAKE FURTHER
CONNECTIONS
Live Wire 2014/6. “Measuring
the Results of World Bank
Lending in the Energy Sector,”
by Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee,
Ruchi Soni, and Elisa Portale.
Live Wire 2014/8. “Widening
Access to Nonsolid Fuel for
Cooking,” by Sudeshna Ghosh
Banerjee, Elisa Portale, Heather
Adair-Rohani, and Sophie
Bonjour.
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lObal energy seCtOr
U n d e r s ta n d i n g C O 2 e m i s s i O n s f r O m t h e g
2014/5
A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY PRACTICE
THE BOTTOM LINE
Understanding CO2 Emissions from the Global Energy Sector
the energy sector contributes
about 40 percent of global
2014/4
Why is this issue important?
emissions of CO2. threexas
The Case of Te
r i d : emissions
o T h eofgthose
r g y Tquarters
Mitigating climate change requires knowledge of the
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Figure 2. energy-related CO2
Figure 1. CO2 emissions
TransmiTTing
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Identifying opportunities to cut emissions of greenhouse gases
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THE BOTTOM LINE
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Texas leads the United
waste, and nonrenewable municipal waste to generate electricity
in the use of coal to generate
with 9,528 mw of installed
sector at the point
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Notes: Energy-related CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the energy
and heat. Blackchallenge
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note.
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(ERCOT 2011) and, if it
([email protected]).
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a
largest global energy consumers, and more than three-quarters
the problem, Texas devised
generation worldwide.
globally, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total (figure 3).
Bedrosyan
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quickly
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for London
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energy
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energy
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to the transmission system.
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the
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from eligible
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renewable energy zones.
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Marcelino Madrigal
met in just over six years
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reach 5,880
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that the state’s total renewable
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Furthermore, the
2015 and 2025 respectively.
Bank’s Energy Practice.
MW and 10,000 MW by
energy target
With
500 MW of the 2025 renewable
legislation required that
Rhonda Lenai Jordan
sources other than wind.
([email protected])
be derived from renewable
Transmitting Renewable
The Case of Texas
is an energy specialist
the same practice.
in
Energy to the Grid:
Source: ERCOT 2008.
8
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The Case of Texas
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Energy to the Grid:
2014/6
states
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with 9,528 mw of installed
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were a country, would
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committed generators.
to measure
the effort
Texas’s
broad lending patterns during
faced
1. in
Figure
(ERCOT 2011) and, if it
What challenges were
is this aissue important?
Whydevised
fy 2000–13. to compile it,the problem, Texas
generation worldwide.
1999, it vowed to
inresults?
quickly
program
that
the
energy
for
process
its
critical
it
made
has
2000
planning
energy projects back to fy
The need for accountability
When Texas reformed
It now uses a
energy mix.
aligned
and
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its
in
retrieved
be
to
les
energy
had
2000
FY
to
back
renewab
Data
for
of
connects
screened
role
were manually
results
increase the
Energy Practice to measure
utilities to increase
standard to require energy with the new CSIs
to the transmission system.
results data comparable with
renewable portfolio
le sources. To minimize
in order to
the tracks the outcomes
of its projects
on Bank
based
World
n from eligible renewab
The system is The
the standardized indicators
their energy generatio
created
program
poverty le energy
endingrenewab
of state’s
project in the energy sector had devised its own
the goalsthe
each
Previously,
“competitive
how well they are advancingtaxpayer,
now used in the Bank’s designation ofunderstand
costs to the
made it difficult to report the Bank’s
on the private sector
those
zones. shared prosperity. For some yearslenow
and promoting
energy zones that rely indicators of results, which
renewable energy
corporate scorecard. in the
competitive renewab
n and transScorecards for generatio
Corporate
in terms that were both broad and precise. With the
achievements
outcomes have been reported in a Bank-wide
and operation
future, automation will make
n
to provide infrastructure
and
that measure
Corporate Scorecard, however, the clear advantages of
theregulatio
indicators (CSIs)
adventn,of
planning, facilitatio
based on a set of so-called core sector
provides
it easier to collect, aggregate,
mission, while the stateof standardized
results led the Energy Practice to examine
demonstrate
to
aggregation
being able
impact at the project level and permit
and analyze data on project
(figure 1).
proelectricity
that
to FY 2000 and, to the extent
outcome
d
back
or
output
projects
of
energy
indicator
Bank’s
an
mandate
is
the
CSI
Each
standard
data across the Bank.
outcomes.
The renewable portfolio
by 2009.
le energy
harmonize or align the indicators used in
theme, such as
sector or
to retroactively
possible,
that is strategically relevant to a particular
MW of additional renewab
viders generate 2,000
Madrigal
years and was followed
with those devised for the Corporate Scorecard. The
Marcelino
the energy sector.
was met in just over six those projects
nk
d
This 10-year target
mandate
and
(mmadrigal@worldba
Practice,
Energy
the targets
Bank’s
“archaeological” exercise are reported in this note.
this
results of
raised
which
Three CSIs are particularly central tobythe
20,
Bill
Senate
up in 2005
5,880 here for the fiscal years 2000–13 are the
reachreported
.org) is a senior energy
must
of the energy
results
in every steprenewab
le energy generationThe
because they reflect its engagement state’s
total
the
that the
specialist in the World
Furtherm
ely.
(T&D)
andbydistribution
of energy-sector indicators reflective of the broad
reportore,
such
first
value chain—from generation to transmission
2015 and 2025 respectiv
Sudeshna Ghosh
Bank’s Energy Practice.
MW and 10,000 MW
With
le energyoftarget
are: of the 2025 renewab
the World Bank during this period.
three indicators
lending patterns
to “last mile” customer connections. The
500 MW
Banerjee is a senior
legislation required that
Rhonda Lenai Jordan
To compile the report, all World Bank projects approved in the
other than wind.
through
le sources
with access to electricity
energy specialist in the
people provided
ofrg)
• The number
orldbank.o
(rjordan@w
be derived from renewab
energy space between FY 2000 and FY 2013 (approximately 70–80
in
World Bank’s Energy
specialist
connections
household
is an energy
Source: ERCOT 2008.
projects per year on average) were screened to extract those
Practice (sgbanerjee@
practice.
the•same
T&D lines constructed or rehabilitated, measured in kilometers
worldbank.org)
that had adopted indicators similar enough to those used in the
(km)
Corporate Scorecard that they could be mined for comparable data.
Ruchi Soni (rsoni@
• Generation capacity constructed, measured in megawatts (MW).
worldbank.org) is an
Information was extracted from two types of project documents:
energy analyst in the
the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) for
More recently, additional indicators have been developed covsame practice.
closed projects and the most recent Implementation Status and
ering measurement of energy efficiency in heat and power (lifetime
Elisa Portale (eportale@
Results Report (ISR) for active projects. In some cases, information
savings, captured in MWh).
worldbank.org) is an
was referred back to project staff for confirmation or, where
energy consultant, also
discrepancies had been spotted, for correction. In a few cases
Practice.
in the Energy
where indicators were not explicitly mentioned in the ICR or ISR,
Measuring the Results of World Bank
Lending in the Energy Sector