Example Solar Proton Event
Data
NASA JSC
August 30, 2006
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Times of Occurrence of Large SPE’s
GCR Deceleration Potential
1800
1600
1400
Φ , MV
1200
1000
800
600
400
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
200
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
F(>30 MeV), Protons/cm2
Year
10 10
8
F>10 solar proton
events only
10 9
10 8
1/1/1950
1/1/1960
1/1/1970
1/1/1980
1/1/1990
1/1/2000
Modern Era (1956-2005)
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1/1/2010
1/1/2020
Recent Era (1550-2000)
McKracken et al.
Projections of Cycles and Mean Occurrence Frequency of SPE
180
Cycle 23
Population distribution level, percent
90
160
Sunspot number
140
Measured sunspot number
70
Projected smoothed
sunspot number at level, percent
80
75
70
Smoothed sunspot number
80
12
10
<ν(t)> :
Φ30>=105
120
100
14
Cycle 24
Φ30>=106
50
8
6
30
60
4
10
40
2
20
0
1996
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
0
2001
2006
Year
2011
2016
<ν( t) >, Events/year
200
Large Solar Proton Events during Solar Cycles 19-23
with Φ30 > 109 protons/cm2
Cycle
Onset Time
Φ30, protons/cm2
Time to Peak Flux, hr
Comment
19
11/12/1960
9.00 x 109
14
(a), note 1
20
8/2/1972
5.00 x 109
69
(a)
22
10/19/1989 13:05
4.23 x 109
26.9
(b)
23
7/14/2000 10:45
3.74 x 109
25.8
(b)
23
10/26/2003 18:25
3.25 x 109
4.2
(b), note 2
23
11/4/2001 17:05
2.92 x 109
33.2
(b)
19
7/10/1959
2.30 x 109
note 3
(a)
23
11/8/2000 23:50
2.27 x 109
16.1
(b)
22
3/23/1991 8:20
1.74 x 109
19.5
(b)
22
8/12/1989 16:00
1.51 x 109
15.2
(b)
22
9/29/1989 12:05
1.35 x 109
14.1
(b)
23
1/16/2005 2:10
1.04 x 109
39.7
(b)
19
2/23/1956
1.00 x 109
note 4
(a)
(a) Φ30 for solar cycle 19-21: data taken from Shea and Smart.
(b) Φ30 for solar cycle 22 and 23: calculated using corrected 5-min average proton flux of GOES measurements.
Note 1: There are large differences in the estimate of fluence in November 1960 SPE.
Data given by others are significantly smaller than this value (1.3 x 109 protons/cm2 by Freier and Webber).
Note 2: Φ30 for the combined 3 major peaks occurred during 10/26-11/6/2003: 3.42 x 109 protons/cm2.
Note 3: one day later on July 11, 1959
Note 4: in the same day on February 23, 1956
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Proton Integral Flux
August 2-11, 1972 SPE
1,000,000
100,000
2
Flux, Protons/cm -s
E > 10 MeV
10,000
E > 30 MeV
E > 60 MeV
1,000
100
10
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
50
100
150
Time, h
200
250
BFO Dose Rate
August 2-11, 1972 SPE
1.E+02
1.E+01
Dose Rate, cGy-Eq/h
1.E+00
AL(0)
AL(1)
AL(3)
AL(5)
AL(10)
AL(15)
AL(20)
AL(30)
1 cGy/h
1.E-01
1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
0
40
80
120
Time, hr
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
160
200
240
BFO Cumulative Dose
August 2-11, 1972 SPE
1.E+03
Cumulative Dose Equivalent, cSv
1.E+02
Current 30-day limit
1.E+01
2
Al thickness, g/cm :
0
1
3
5
10
15
20
30
1.E+00
1.E-01
1.E-02
1.E-03
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
40
80
120
Time, h
160
200
240
82 BFO Locations
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
●
●
32 location set
50 location set
August 1972 SPE (1 g/cm2 Al shield)
BFO Dose Eq, cGy-Eq
500
Marrow location, j
Head and Neck
Upper Torso
Middle Torso
Thighs
Average
400
300
200
100
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
BFO Location
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
35
40
45
50
Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux
during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE
100000
Flux, protons/cm2-s
10000
E ≥ 30 MeV
E ≥ 60 MeV
E ≥ 100 MeV
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
50
100
150
Time, h
200
250
300
BFO Dose Rate during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE
10
1 rem/h
1
Dose Rate, cSv/h
0.1
0.01
Al thickness,
2:
g/cm
0.001
0
1
3
5
10
15
20
30
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
50
100
150
Time, h
200
250
300
Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux
Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE
100000
Flux, protons/cm2-s
10000
E ≥ 30 MeV
E ≥ 60 MeV
E ≥ 100 MeV
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
50
100
150
Time, h
200
250
300
BFO Dose Rate
October 26- November 6, 2003 SPE
10
1 cGy/h
1
Dose Rate, cGy-Eq/h
0.1
Al thickness,
2:
g/cm
0.01
0.001
0
1
3
5
10
15
20
30
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
50
100
150
Time, h
200
250
300
BFO Cumulative Dose
October 26- November 6, 2003 SPE
1.E+02
Current 30-day limit
AL(0)
AL(1)
AL(3)
AL(5)
AL(10)
AL(15)
AL(20)
AL(30)
Cumulative Dose Equivalent, cSv
1.E+01
1.E+00
1.E-01
1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
50
100
150
Time, h
200
250
300
Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux
January 16-22, 2005 SPE
1.E+05
E ≥ 10 MeV
E ≥ 30 MeV
E ≥ 60 MeV
E > 100 MeV
Flux, protons/cm2-s
1.E+04
1.E+03
1.E+02
1.E+01
1.E+00
1.E-01
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
20
40
60
80
100
Time, h
120
140
160
180
BFO Dose Rate
January 16-22, 2005 SPE
1.E+01
1 cGy/h
Dose Rate, cGy-Eq/h
1.E+00
1.E-01
Al thickness, g/cm2
1.E-02
0
1
3
5
10
15
20
30
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
20
40
60
80
100
Time, h
120
140
160
180
BFO Cumulative Dose
January 16-22, 2005 SPE
1.E+02
Current 30-day limit
Cumulative Dose Equivalent, cSv
1.E+01
1.E+00
AL(0)
AL(1)
AL(3)
AL(5)
AL(10)
AL(15)
AL(20)
AL(30)
1.E-01
1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
20
40
60
80
100
Time, h
120
140
160
180
Role of Dose-Rate and Shielding
‰ Shielding mitigates most SPE events
¾High-energy component (>100 MeV) often poorly known
‰ Proton biological damage is dependent on dose-rate
¾Effects increase above ~5 rad/hr
EVA Today (Y/N?)
IVA (time to storm shelter)
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
216 Particle Events (1976-2005)
25
100.00%
90.00%
20
80.00%
70.00%
15
Frequency
60.00%
50.00%
10
40.00%
30.00%
5
20.00%
10.00%
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Time to Max Proton Flux, hr
46.5
45
43.5
42
40.5
39
37.5
36
34.5
33
31.5
30
28.5
27
25.5
24
22.5
21
19.5
18
16.5
15
13.5
12
10.5
9
7.5
6
4.5
3
1.5
.00%
0
0
Frequency
Cumulative %
Large SPE Integral Fluence Spectra at 1AU
1.E+12
Feb 1956 SPE
Aug 1972 SPE
1.E+11
Nov 1960 SPE
Oct 2003 SPE
Φ p(>E), protons/cm
2
1.E+10
1.E+09
1.E+08
1.E+07
1.E+06
1.E+05
1.E+04
1
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
10
100
Kinetic energy, MeV
1000
Big SPEs (Cycles 22-23)
1.00E+12
1.00E+10
10/19/1989 SPE
7/14/2000 SPE
9/29/1989 SPE
1.00E+08
11/8/2000 SPE
10/26/2003 SPE
1.00E+06
11/4/2001 SPE
1/16/2005 SPE
-2
Φ (>E), cm
1.00E+04
8/12/1989 SPE
10/30/1992 SPE
6/4/1991 SPE
1.00E+02
9/24/2001 SPE
11/6/1997 SPE
1.00E+00
6/14/1991 SPE
3/23/1991 SPE
1.00E-02
4/21/2002 SPE
11/2/2003 SPE
1.00E-04
11/22/2001 SPE
4/20/1998 SPE
11/30/1989 SPE
1.00E-06
1.00E-08
1
10
100
E, MeV/amu
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1000
From Nymik- COSPAR
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
The Average BFO Doses of the Regions at 6 DLOCs from 1972 SPE
140
120
BFO Dose, cGy-Eq
100
Head & Neck
Chest
80
Abdomen
Pelvis
Thighs
60
Lower Legs
Arms
40
20
0
DLOC1
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
DLOC2
DLOC3
DLOC4
DLOC5
DLOC6
Was Carrington Event (1859) Lethal?
1859 event has largest F>30 Flux known
Blood Forming Organ Dose, cGy-Eq
1
10
100
3 missions/year for
5-yr Program
Arctic ice-core data
1
Single
Mission
Modern data
(1956-2005)
Mission disruption-days lost?
Increased fatal cancer risk
and other late effects
0.01
0.001
108
5% Prodromal
Sickness
0.1
109
Proton Fluence >30 MeV per cm2
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1010
5% Acute Lethality Uniform Dose
10
30-day Dose
Limit Violation
% Probability in 2-Week Missions
100
Conditions under
Apollo Spacecraft
-type shielding
Ice-Core data
-F>30MeV flux from
1450-1990
Large SPE’s
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Long-Term Forecasting
Climax Neutron Monitor and Deceleration Potential (Φ)
4400
2900
2400
Measured ClimaxNM
Estimated Cli(DR75%)
PHI(T)
3-month Ave PHI(T)
3400
1900
, MV
Climax Cosmic Ray Monthly Means
3900
2900
1400
2400
1900
1953
900
400
1963
1973
1983
Time
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1993
2003
2013
SPE Probability in 1-Week Mission
and
BFO Exposure Level inside a Typical Equipment Room in Free Space
1000
1.E+00
1.E-01
NCRP 30-day limit at BFO for LEO mission
SPE/Mission
1.E-02
10
1.E-03
1
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E+03
1.E+04
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
Size of Event (>Φ30)
1.E+09
1.E+10
0.1
1.E+11
BFO Dose, cGy-Eq
100
Average Probability of Space Era
Extended Average Probability
Impulsive Nitrate Events
BFO Dose of Worst Case SPE Model
BFO Dose of SPE during Space Era
Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods
Φ30 > 108 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 21.
Dec 1982
Apr 1981
7
Apr 1984
6
Frequency
5
4
200
150
Apr 1978
Jan 1982
Sept 1978
Sept 1979
Oct 1981
Feb 1978
100
3
2
50
1
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
10
2
11
1
12
0
93
84
75
66
57
48
39
30
21
0
12
3
0
Time from Solar Minimum, month
Smoothed Monthly Sunspot Number
8
Frequency
Monthly sunspot number
Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods
Φ30 > 109 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 22.
Sept 1989
Aug 1989 Oct 1989
8
200
150
6
Frequency
5
100
4
3
50
2
1
0
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
10
2
11
1
12
0
93
84
75
66
57
48
39
30
21
3
12
0
Time from Solar Minimum, month
Smoothed Monthly Sunspot Number
Mar 1991
7
Frequency
Monthly sunspot number
Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods
Φ30 > 109 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 23.
Nov 2001
8
200
Nov 2000
7
6
150
Frequency
5
Oct 2003
4
100
3
Jan 2005
2
50
1
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
10
2
11
1
12
0
93
84
75
66
57
48
39
30
0
21
3
12
0
Time from Solar Minimum, month
Smoothed Monthly Sunspot Number
Jul 2000
Frequency
Monthly sunspot number
GCR and SPE Dose: Materials & Tissue
GCR higher energy >> secondary radiation
With Tissue Shielding
No Tissue Shielding
10000
1000
Dose Equivalent, cSv/yr
1000
Dose Equivalent, cSv/yr
GCR Hydrogen
GCR Polyethylene
GCR Graphite
GCR Aluminum
GCR Regolith
SPE Graphite
SPE Regolith
100
10
GCR Hydrogen
GCR Polyethylene
GCR Graphite
GCR Aluminum
GCR Regolith
SPE Graphite
SPE Regolith
SPE Hydrogen
100
10
1
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
2
Shielding Depth, g/cm
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
Shielding Depth, g/cm
25
2
30
35
Risk and Uncertainties increase with Linear
Energy Transfer (LET)
95% CL of Risk Model
TEPC Data on NASA-MIR 7 (1/21/1998 to 5/28/1998)
8
10000
Dose = 0.01 Gy
7
GCR
Trapped
Total
6
Fold uncertainty
100
REID(%)
F(>y), (day cm )
2 -1
1000
10
1
5
4
3
2
0.1
1
0.01
0.1
1
10
y (~LET), keV/µm
100
1000
0
1
10
100
LET, keV/µm
Dose = Flux x LET
Biological Dose H = Dose X Q(L)
REID = Risk of exposure induced death = H x R0(sex,age)
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1000
Accuracy of Space Radiation Transport Models
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Model vs. Phantom Expt. (STS and ISS)
ISS
Increment-2
results
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Phantom Torso TEPC Trapped + GCR Differential Flux
June 25 - July 3, 2001
2
Differential Flux, Number/cm sr day keV/µm
105
104
103
102
101
100
10-1
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10-1
100
101
102
103
Lineal Energy (Tissue, keV/µm)
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
104
NASA-MIR 7 (1/21/1998 to 5/28/1998)
10000
GCR
Trapped
Total
F(>y), (day cm )
2 -1
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.1
1
10
y, keV/µm
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
100
1000
1.E+07
1.E+05
1.E+03
1.E+01
0" (x100)
5" (x10)
LET vs TEPC
7" (x1)
9" (x0.1)
1.E-01
1.E-03
1.E-05
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1.E+07
1.E+05
0" (x100)
TEPC model
Vs TEPC (no TF)
5" (x10)
1.E+03
1.E+01
7" (x1)
9" (x0.1)
1.E-01
1.E-03
1.E-05
0.01
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
0.1
1
10
100
1000
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta