World Bank
September,5th 2006
A Panorama of Urban Mobility
Strategies in Developing
Countries
Hubert METGE, SYSTRA
Aurélie JEHANNO, SYSTRA
INTRODUCTION
Systra is carrying out a study dealing with urban mobility strategies in
developing countries on behalf of the French Ministry of Transports
This presentation is a first outline of the study results:
• Objectives and methodology of the study
• Urban typologies
• Urban mobility strategies
• Study cases
A guideline for policy makers in developing countries -and those advising
them - will be released during the first semester of 2007
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY
Objectives
Methodology
URBAN PATTERNS AND THEIR CORRELATED STRATEGIES
Criterias
Illustrated typology
Correlated
strategies
STUDY CASES
Conakry
Cairo
Hanoi
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY
Objectives
Methodology
Aim of the study
The study aims at proposing a
consistent
urban
transport
development process in 15 developing
and
emerging
conurbations,
proceeding from the analysis of 5
“revealed successful urban transport
networks”.
The first stage consisted in analyzing
the transport mechanism development
process in 5 cities which can be
considered as successful as far as
public transportation is concerned
(modal share, infrastructure network,
related policies, innovating systems…)
© David Mangin
The second stage aims at
defining the process which
could allow 15 cities mainly
located
in
developing
countries to reach a similar
level of Public Transport
attractiveness and efficiency
Objectives
Methodology
The 20 selected
cities
Paris
Séoul
Madrid
Tokyo
Curitiba
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Principles
The required urban transportation network in the next 3 decades was
identified according the following target :
•
•
Reaching (or maintain) an ambitious use of urban transport
(>60 % of transportation modal share)
Covering 80 % of the urbanised area with efficient systems of
transport on exclusive right of way
with the following rules :
•
•
•
Remaining in a reasonable budget
Selecting the most efficient and convenient systems of
Taking advantage of the existing network
transport
A macro-economic simulation was specially developed for the study=> How is
it possible to break down investments according to the financial capacities of
the city and the chosen combination of modes?
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Targets
Reach or maintain an ambitious use of
Public transports
100
90
Modale Share of motorised private mode
UITP Database (1995)
Riyadh
Houston
Atlanta
Calgary
San Diego
Los Angeles
Denver
Chicago
Perth
Washington
Brisbane
San Francisco
Ottawa
Toronto Vancouver
Wellington
New York
Montreal
Sydney
Melbourne
Tel Aviv
Kuala Lumpur
Phoenix
American model
80
70
Lille
Athens
60
50
40
30
20
Hamburg
Manchester
Nantes
Rome
Taipei
Bologna
Copenhagen
Turin
Helsinki
Ho Chi Minh City
Ruhr
Sapporo
Cape Town Tehran
Newcastle
Graz
Seoul
Curitiba
Mexico City
Zurich
Paris
Bangkok
Abijan
Osaka
Salvador
Cairo
Berne
Johannesburg
Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo
Moscow
Buenos Aires
Budapest
Madrid
Amsterdam
Casablanca
Prague
Bogota
Harare
Jakarta
Warsaw
Beijing
Cracow
Tunis
Manila
Dakar
Guangzhou
Chennai
Oslo Glasgow
Stockholm
European model
Lyon
Geneva
Milan
Marseille
London
Singapore
Berlin
Dusseldorf
Frankfurt
Brussels
Vienna
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Developing Cities
10
Barcelona
Stuttgart
Mumbai
Shanghai
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
GDP/m² (USD)
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Targets
Reach or maintain an ambitious use of
Public transports
100
Phoenix
Riyadh
Modal split of motorised private mode
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
UITP Database (1995)
Atlanta
San Diego Denver
Calgary
Houston
Perth
Washington
Los Angeles
Chicago
San Francisco
Brisbane Toronto
Vancouver
Ottawa
Wellington
Sydney
New York
Montreal
Melbourne
Tel Aviv
Kuala Lumpur
Athens
Hamburg
Lille
Nantes
Oslo Lyon
Taipei Manchester Turin Rome Bologna
Ho Chi Minh City
Stockholm
Helsinki
Geneva
Glasgow
Tehran
Copenhagen
Marseille Ruhr
Milan
Cape Town
Newcastle
Sapporo
Seoul
London Singapore
Mexico CityBangkok
Stuttgart
Graz
Barcelona
Dusseldorf
Paris
Curitiba
Berlin
Brussels
Abijan
Salvador
Osaka
Cairo
Vienna
Johannesburg
Berne
Moscow Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro
Tokyo
Bogota Budapest Buenos Aires
Amsterdam
Madrid
Casablanca
Prague
Harare Jakarta
Beijing Warsaw
Tunis Cracow
Manila
Hong Kong
Dakar Guangzhou
Chennai
Mumbai
Shanghai
American pattern
European pattern
Zurich
Frankfurt
Munich
Ideal Pattern
0
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
GDP per capita (USD)
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Targets
Four methods to define PT targets in km
Density of Public Transport
dedicated lanes (km/km²)
Length of public Transport
dedicated lanes (km/million
inhabitants)
2,500
2,000
Length of dedicated public transport lines per
million people
Density of public transport dedicated lanes
(km/km²)
180
Paris
R2 = 0,8632
1,500
Tokyo (23wards)
1,000
Curitiba
Région métropolitaine
de Tokyo
0,500
Île-de-France
Région métropolitaine
de Madrid
Région métropolitaine
de Seoul
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Paris
Île-de-France
Tokyo
(23wards)
Tokyo
Madrid
Seoul
Curitiba
20
0,000
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
0
1
Density (inhab/ha)
Amount of km of ROW per million
urban trips
Cities
Coverage by stations of 80% of the
territory
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Rules
Remain in a reasonable budget
The target is to remain in a reasonable budget. This indicator is expressed in %
of GDP dedicated to transport (transit and public). It includes capital and
operating costs (depreciation included)
Urban Transport Investments
5,00%
4,00%
3,00%
2,00%
1,00%
13
00
0
17
00
0
21
00
0
25
00
0
29
00
0
33
00
0
37
00
0
41
00
0
45
00
0
49
00
0
90
00
50
00
0,00%
10
00
% of GDP in urban transports
6,00%
GDP per capita in euros
%VP cost
%TC operating costs
%TC Investment
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Rules
Select an efficient and convenient system of
transport
Investments costs per mode per km
Operating costs per mode and
offered seats with depreciation
and without financial cost
0,16
120
100
80
MRT
60
40
Tramway
20
BRT
0
0
10000
20000
30000
GDP per capita
40000
50000
Costs in euros per seats.km
Investment cots in M€/km
140
0,14
0,12
BRT
0,10
0,08
Tramway
0,06
0,04
MRT
0,02
0,00
2000
12000
22000
32000
42000
52000
GDP per capita in euros
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Rules
Select an efficient and sustainable system of
transport
With 1 kilogram oil equivalent, one person can cover a distance of:
Source: Ademe
Energy consumption per mode
Private Car
Suburban trains
Bus (Paris)
MRT (RER)
Metro (Paris)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Trip x km/kilogram oil equivalent
Objectives
Methodology
Definition of strategies :
Rules
Select an efficient and convenient system of
transport
Space consumption per mode
(pax/h/direction)
80000
70000
MRT (Cairo,Egypt, line 1)
60000
MRT (Paris, France,RER A)
50000
Metro (Bangkok, Thailand, BTS)
Metro
40000
Metro (Santiago de Chile, Chile)
Line 1
30000
BRT (Bogota, Colombia)
Suburban Train (Paris, France)
Tramway (Manila, Philippines)
BRT
20000
BRT (Curitiba, Brazil)
10000
Tramway (Montpellier,France)
0
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
(width of the right of way in meters)
Objectives
Methodology
Take advantage of the urban structure and the existing
network
Large avenues for BRT
Definition of strategies :
Rules
Railways existing infrastructure
Heliopolis tram track in Cairo
Existing Public Transport network….
Bogota
Objectives
Methodology
The macro-economical simulation tool
Input
Strategy :
-Duration of the planning
process
-Objective of development
of the transportation
network
-Part of GDP spent on
transport at the end of
the period
Metropolitan region
characteristics :
- Population
- Annual growth of the
population
-GDP per capita
-Annual growth of the
GDP
Definition of strategies :
Rules
Output
Program which assesses the
investment capabilities to reach
the objectives
(Considering evolution of cost
with GDP and operating cost of
the developing network)
Cost functions per mode:
- Graph which
represents expenses
for transport
according to the
forecast level of GDP
per capita.
- Length of the
network
-Capital cost depending on
the level of GDP
Operating cost depending on
the level of GDP
Objectives
Methodology
URBAN PATTERNS AND THEIR CORRELATED STRATEGIES
Criteria
Illustrated typology
Correlated
strategies
Criteria
Criteria
Urban density and shaping
Trips pattern (density/growth)
Wealth (GDP, growth)
Institutional framework (strength, capability)
Transport network supply and legacy
Criteria
Illustrated typology
Correlated
strategies
Urban typologies
Category
Characteristics
Cities
Rather simple urban structure, Strong
growth of urban trips, Weak Institutional
and financial means, Failing PT supply
Conakry, Dakar,
Casablanca
2. Cities undergoing a deep
urban and economical
change with a low level of
existing transport supply
Intermediate urban structure, Intermediate
and strong growth of urban trips, Strong
institutional and financial means, PT supply
under deep reorganisation process
Hanoi, many Indian and
Chinese Cities, Dubai
3. Growing cities with
existing means and a sound
legacy
Rather simple urban structure, Strong
growth of urban trips, Intermediate
Institutional and financial means, Advanced
PT supply
Bogotá, Cairo
4. Maturing and stabilizing
cities
Complex urban structure (dilution),
Moderate growth of urban trips, Strong
institutional and financial means, Advanced
PT supply
Teheran, Bangkok, Rio
de Janeiro
5. Mature cities
Complex urban structure, slow growth of
urban trips demand, Strong institutional and
financial means, Advanced PT supply
Paris, Tokyo, Madrid,
Moscow
1.Exploding cities in an
emergency situation
Criteria
Illustrated typology
Correlated
strategies
Correlated strategies
Category
Strategies
Exploding cities in an
emergency situation
™ Catching up of basic transportation supply
™ Focus on the skeleton of the public transportation network with easy to setup solutions on the main demand corridors
™ Important level of investments dedicated to transportation (3-4% of GDP)
during the whole planning period
Cities undergoing a deep
urban and economic change
process with a low level of
existing transport supply
™ Focus investments on strong corridors with peculiar attention to
complementary networks (bus..) and definition of a detailed land use program
™ Strong level of investments from the beginning (>4%) with a slow down at
the end of the period
Growing cities with existing
means and a sound legacy
™ Complete or initiate an evolution process of the existant structuring
network in order to satisfy the growing demand on the main demand corridors
™ Stabilisation of investments dedicated to transportation around 3-4% of the
regional GDP during the period (30 years)
Maturing and stabilizing cities
™ Complete or initiate an evolution process of the existant structuring
network
™ Strong Focus on complementary networks
™ Investments between 1,5-3% of GDP
Criteria
Illustrated typology
Correlated
strategies
CASE STUDIES
Conakry
Cairo
Hanoi
Conakry
French Guinea
Urban and socio-economic context
EXPLODING CIY IN AN EMERGENCY SITUATION
A rapid demographic growth
(800%) in 50 years
A steady demographic
growth in the next 30 years
=> from 1,7 M in 2015 to
3,1M in 2030
Weak economical and
institutional systems
A simple and strong urban
structure favourable for the
development of a public
transport network based on
right of ways
Conakry
Cairo
Hanoi
Conakry
French Guinea
Existing Public transport infrastructure and future
needs
Low capacity network ( no
bus network but mainly
shared taxis and minibuses)
No hierarchy in the transport
network
Congestions due to the
disorganisation of traffic (no
efficient management)
Required length of transportation exclusive right of way
in 2030 (Conakry)
260
252
251
250
236
240
230
219
220
210
200
Km of dedicated
lanes/Million
inhabitant
Conakry
Km of dedicated
lanes/Million Trips
Km of dedicated
lanes/SqKm
Cairo
Coverage of the
territory
Hanoi
Conakry
French Guinea
Investments and modal choice
% of GDP
LRT and BRT
combined solution
~
27%
What do we learn?
~ 5%
GDP per
capita
MRT or Metro systems
are unsuitable with
the economic and
institutional situation
of Conakry
% of GDP
BRT solution
~ 5%
~ 4%
GDP per
capita
Conakry
It is realistic to invest
on a BRT system.
Informal existing
modes will complete
the network as feeder
modes
Cairo
Hanoi
Cairo
Egypt
Urban and socio-economic context
GROWING CITY WITH EXISTING MEANS AND A
SOUND LEGACY
Polycentric urban development with major urban
activities located in the historical centre and satellites
cities created according to previous master plans
A megapolis bordered by natural obstacles
characterised by a high level of density
Carrying out of the steady growth of the population in
the metropolitan region (17 M inhabitants in 2005=>
29 M in 2030)
Bounded financial means, existing institutions that
need however to be strengthened
Conakry
Cairo
Hanoi
Cairo
Egypt
Existing Public transport infrastructure and future
needs
Sound transportation network with
2 MRT lines and another one
scheduled. This high capacity
Required length of transportation exclusive right of way in
network has to be completed to
2030 (Cairo)
face the rapid urban growth and
the heavy level of congestion.
2500
Scarce availability of space for the
construction of at grade
infrastructures on the road
network. Some railway
infrastructures are reusable
(railway and tramway).
Unsuitability of the bus network to
face up the growth of urban trips
2310
2000
2146
1619
1519
1500
1000
500
0
Km of dedicated Km of dedicated Km of dedicated Coverage of the
lanes/Million Trips
lanes/SqKm
territory
lanes/Million
inhabitant
Conakry
Cairo
Hanoi
Cairo
Egypt
Investments and modal choice
MRT (30% mainly underground) & LRT (10% at grade) &
BRT(60%) combined solution
What do we learn?
Focus on MRT to complete
the existing network
% of GDP
~ 4%
~ 4%
Possible implementation of
BRT systems for junctions
between satellite cities and
where space is available
Development of commuter
railway lines or LRT lines
(tramway) on existing
infrastructure
GDP per
capita
Conakry
Improve the quality of
service of the secondary
network (dedicated lanes for
buses…)
Cairo
Hanoi
Hanoi
Vietnam
Urban and socio-economic context
CITY UNDERGOING A DEEP URBAN AND
ECONOMIC CHANGE PROCESS WITH A LOW
LEVEL OF EXISTING TRANSPORT SUPPLY
A high economic growth
Historically a radio concentric
development with high density in
urban district
Today=> major urban
development to the south west
and to the east a long major roads
and railways corridors. The
MasterPlan schedules the creation
of a new town on the other side of
the Red River
Lack of integration of policies
(urban and transport planning)
Conakry
Cairo
Hanoi
Hanoi
Vietnam
Existing Public transport infrastructure and future
needs
Unsatisfactory network
“structuring” compared to
public transport demand
Required length of transportation exclusive right of way
in 2030 (Hanoi)
Ongoing projects of metro
and BRT
400
391
390
380
368
370
Relevant efforts to set up a
bus network
360
350
346
338
340
330
320
310
Km of dedicated
lanes/Million
inhabitant
Conakry
Km of dedicated
lanes/Million Trips
Km of dedicated
lanes/SqKm
Cairo
Coverage of the
territory
Hanoi
Hanoi
Vietnam
Investments and modal choice
LRT (15% aerial and 10% at grade) & BRT (75%) combined
What do we learn?
solution
% of GDP
~ 5%
~ 4%
GDP per capita
Conakry
Underground systems
seem the most adapted in
in the central areas (at
grade or aerial solutions
can however suit for
some trunks)
At grade solutions
(BRT…) are possible were
the road network is
sufficient (newly built
areas…), outside the
historical urban districts
(Hoan Kiem, Ba Dinh,
Dong Da…)
Cairo
Hanoi