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6
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;
Guest Nights in Hotels and Cottages (10000)
25
20
15
10
5
0
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
2000
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
2000
Hotel and Cottage Price Indices
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Year
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<
Percent in Cottages
Month
60
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
45
30
15
0
0
10
20
30
86
40
88
90
92
94
96
98 2000
Year
Percent in Cottages
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0.5
0.9
0.0
Marginal Cottage Effect
Marginal Hotel Effect
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
0.50
Hotel Price
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Cottage Price
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udwkhu vlploduo| vkdshg uhpdlqlqj dxwrfruuhodwlrq/ zlwk d odujh srvlwlyh shdn dw odj
451 E| dsso|lqj wkh ohvv sdudphwhul}hg vshflfdwlrq wkh dxwrfruuhodwlrq lv voljkwo|
uhgxfhg/ wr wkh frvw ri d pdujlqdoo| orzhu h{sodqdwru| srzhu iru wkh frwwdjh vhulhv1
Klwkhuwr zh kdyh irfxvhg rq wkh gluhfw hhfwv zlwklq hdfk ixqfwlrq1 Lq Iljxuh
6 wkh pdujlqdo hhfwv ri krwho dqg frwwdjh sulfhv rq ^ ' q *E k iru krwhov
dqg frwwdjhv lv vkrzq1 Iurp wkh jxuh zh vhh wkdw wkh pdujlqdo hhfw ydulhv pruh
iru frwwdjhv gxh wr d fkdqjh lq wkh rzq sulfh1 Krzhyhu/ prvw ri wkh hhfwv olh
ehwzhhq f dqg fD zlwk d phdq ydoxh ri f2 dv wkh er{ sorw lq Iljxuh 7
8
Qrwh wkdw wkh vljq lqwhusuhwdwlrqv iru wkh dqg ixqfwlrqv duh wkh vdph1
47
Cottage/MNS
Cottage/pS
Cottage/pC
Cottage/pH
Hotel/MNS
Hotel/pS
Hotel/pC
Hotel/pH
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Marginal Effect
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revhuydwlrqv dqg wkh prgho lq froxpq wzr ri Wdeoh 41 Rxwo|lqj pdunhuv fruuhvsrqg
wr wkh 8wk dqg <8wk shufhqwlohv1
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sulfh lv odujhu zkhq wkh frwwdjh sulfh lv orz/ l1h1 lq r shdn shulrgv zkhq wkh frwwdjh
ghpdqg lv orz1 Iru krwhov qr vxfk fohdu sdwwhuq lv pdqlihvw1
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iru hdfk ri wkh h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv lq wkh k dqg q ixqfwlrqv1 Wkh pdujlqdo hhfw
ri h{shqglwxuh +Frwwdjh2 7 dqg Krwho2 7 , lv vpdoo1 Zklfk lqglfdwh wkdw wkh
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krwhov dqg frwwdjhv/ dv wkh| doorfdwh pruh prqh| wr wulsv wr Vzhghq1 Wkh Vzhglvk
sulfh ohyho kdv d qhjdwlyh pdujlqdo hhfw rq krwho +Krwho2 R7 , dqg d srvlwlyh hhfw
rq frwwdjh +Frwwdjh2 R7 , jxhvw qljkwv1 Wkxv/ frqglwlrqdo rq wkh ghflvlrq wr wudyho
wr Vzhghq/ wkh Qruzhjldqv zloo lqfuhdvh wkhlu vwd| lq fkhdshu dffrpprgdwlrq +frw0
wdjhv, dv wkh Vzhglvk sulfh ohyho lqfuhdvhv1 Dv uhyhdohg hduolhu lq Iljxuh 6/ wkh
pdujlqdo rzq sulfh hhfw rq frwwdjh +Frwwdjh2 R , lv qhjdwlyh1 Wkh pdujlqdo hhfw
ri dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh krwho sulfh rq frwwdjhv lv dovr qhjdwlyh/ vlqfh wkh suredelolw| ri
48
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phdvxuhphqw prgho,/ dqg vhfrqg xvhg vwdqgdug ghpdqg dqdo|wlfdo uhvxowv wr h{sodlq
vrph ri wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh vwrfkdvwlf prgho +wkh vwuxfwxudo sduw,1 Wkh rewdlqhg
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zklfk frxqwu| wr ylvlw/ dqg wkhq lq d vhfrqg vwdjh ghflgh wkh irup ri dffrpprgdwlrq1
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h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv duh vljqlfdqw1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq dovr lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh uhvxowv
duh urexvw/ zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri wkh sdudphwhuv lq wkh krwho fkhfn0rxw suredelolw|1
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eh frqvlghuhg dv rqh ri wkh pruh lpsruwdqw idfwruv lq wkh ghflvlrq surfhvv iru zklfk
frxqwu| wr ylvlw1
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49
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rq krwho lv qrw/ dqg pd| eh d uhvxow ri rplwwhg h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv1 D odujh sduw
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