GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs
(Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017)
RA VI Contributions to GFCS
Ivan Čačić
President RA VI
Main contributor to the Report
Mr. Ernersto Rodriguez Camino
Co-Chair WG CH in RA VI
OUTLINE
• Introduction - characteristics of RA VI
• Current and planned deployment of RCCs, RCOFs in RA VI
• Revision of RCC Network: new elements
• Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
• Analysis of country based information from the
“WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
• Some preliminary conclusions
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
2 /25
Introduction - characteristics of RA VI
Geographical and climatological conditions of RA VI
•
RA VI encompasses a very wide variety of climates / climate conditions and
ecosystems from Mediterranean to Arctic
Most countries of RA IV are strongly influenced by midelatitude perturbations
and Atlantic ocean with a marked contrast between humid Northern and dry,
water stressed, Southern regions
Social conditions
•
•
•
•
50 members in RA VI
Relatively small area with large
population (approximately760 million)
High population density in urban areas
and certain sub-regions
On average high level of economical
development but with important
sub-regional differences
50 Members
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
3 /25
Current and planned deployment of
RCCs , RCOFs in RA VI
4 /25
Polar RCC (in process of
implementation)
Established of RA-VI RCC Network by
Res. 1 at RAVI-15, Sept. 2009
Formal designation by Res. 5 (EC-65)
following recomendation of CBS-15,
May 2013
South East European Virtual
Climate Change Center
(SEEVCCC) [Estab. 2008]
Further information at
http://www.rccra6.org/
4
Current and planned deployment of
RCOFs in RA VI
RCCs, RCOFs
5 /25
NEACOF
Interregional RAVI – RAII
Since 2011
Last NEACOF-11
SEECOF
MedCOF
Since 2008
Interregional RAVI – RAI
Last SEECOF-16
Since 2013
Last MedCOF-7
5
Revision of RCC Network: New elements
WMO RA VI Workshop on RCC Implementation and
the Third Coordination Meeting of RA VI RCC Network
(11 – 14 October 2016, Belgrade, Serbia)
Progress from Implementation Plan to Operational Plan for the RAVI RCC
Network including the following new elements:
•
Feedback Mechanism
•
Improved collaboration with neighbouring RCCs
•
RCC in the context of relevant intergovernmental activities:

European activities: EUMETSAT, ECMWF, Copernicus

CIS and Arab League activities
•
Improved online access to RCC Network products and services

Single RCC web portal

Seamless RCC Network products and services as a long-term vision
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
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Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
Vision
•
•
•
•
Contribution to WMO
activities
Special focus on GFCS
Climate and Hydrological
services
Support of NMHSs - enhance
capacities
7 /25
Task Teams
directly related with GFCS implementation
•
•
•
•
•
•
RCCs and RCOF (climate)
Climate Watch System (climate)
Agricultural Meteorology (joint)
Water Scarcity and Drought (joint)
Hydrological modeling, forecasting
and warning (hydro)
Data operations & Management
(joint)
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
Targeted training for RCOFs
•
1st MedCOF Training Workshop (Madrid,
October 2015)
•
2nd MedCOF Training Workshop (Rome,
November 2016)
•
Planned 3rd MedCOF Training Workshop
(Zagreb, November 2017)
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
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Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
Climate Watch
New established website with
restricted
access, but
 free for all RA VI NMHSs
Special reports on selected climate events.
See: www.dwd.de/rcc-cm
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
9 /25
Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
EUPORIAS project has
• developed reliable
and trusted climate
services for a number
of sectors:
water management,
floods, road transportation,
renewable energy, etc
• provided examples of
'end-to-end' climateto-impacts-to-decisionmaking services operating
on the Seasonal
and Decadal (S2D)
time scales
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
10 /25
Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
RA VI /CCl Website on Data Rescue
•
•
•
•
Website from last intersessional
period maintained and
developed
http://www.climatol.eu/ttdom/index.html
Section added on proxy data in
hydrology
Other sections have
incorporated new information
and links to relevant resources
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
11 /25
Main contributions under RA VI umbrella
12 /25
European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) – component of the
Copernicus Emergency Management Service (Copernicus EMS)
•
First operational European
system monitoring and
forecasting floods across
Europe
•
It provides complementary,
flood early warning
information up to 10 days in
advance to its partners:

National/Regional
Hydrological Services

European Response and
Coordination Centre (ERCC)
RAVI WG-CH follows up and coordinates with
 COPERNICUS/EFAS
 METEOALARM
 WMO South East Europe Flash Flood Guidance
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
System
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
•
Most of the analyzed country based information comes from the
“WMO 2015 Impacts Survey” extracted for RA VI Members
Survey explores ("results-based framework objective 1 outputs“):
•
•
•
•
•
Identification of climate-sensitive national development priorities
Capacity assessments of key stakeholders (including NMHSs and NHSs)
National implementation plans/frameworks (e.g. NAPS or national action plans)
Resources reviews, of relevant on-going and planned partner projects
National planning, coordination, information sharing and monitoring structures
•
Adequate observing networks, data, data management,
monitoring, and forecasting systems – Output 6
Decision - support tools and systems (identified, designed and
improved, including any necessary research) – Output 7
•
• Capacity development services
•
•
•
Decision - support products and services (established or
strengthened) – Output 9
Monitoring systems – Output 10
31 responses (out of the 50 members)
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
13 /25
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
Output 6: Adequate observing networks, data, data management,
monitoring and forecasting systems
Number of countries that
have undertaken WMO
initiatives
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Level of adequacy of the CDMS
30
Inadeq,
1
25
Regular, 9
20
15
Adeq, 15
10
5
0
Very
Adeq, 5
Countries
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
14 /25
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
Output 6: Adequate observing networks, data, data management,
monitoring and forecasting systems
•
Data rescue initiatives
– 6 WMO coordinated projects
Still need for such projects
•
Progress in GCOS Implementation Plan
– Relatively high quality of climate observations provided by NMHS
in meeting user needs
•
NMHSs with Climate Data Management Systems (CDMSs)
– Most countries have climate monitoring ( a few also watch)
systems
•
NMHSs in regional hydro forecasting systems for transboundary river
basins
– Relative high participation (when applicable)
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
15 /25
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
16 /25
Output 6: Members issuing: monthly predictions; seasonal
predictions; climate watch bulletins; long-term projections
Climate Predictions
21.5
Regional Access to products of
global and regional centres
21
20.5
Highly
20
Mostly
Intermittent
19.5
19
8%
18.5
46%
18
17.5
46%
17
16.5
Monthly
Seasonal
Climate Long term
Watch projection
Bulletins
Number of Countries that issued prods
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
17 /25
Output 6: NMHS with regular access to products of global and
regional centres
Quality of products perceived by
WMO RCCs
•
•
•
Long range forecasts
Good
Regional climate
monitoring
Good
Regional data
Good
Guidance material on
regional products
Good
Communication system used
to access to data/prods (%)
100
77
25
Good access to products provided by WMO global and regional centres
The level of access to products has improved during the last two years
Relatively high perceived quality [on average 4 scored (5 max.)] of WMO RCCs
products used at national level
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
18 /25
Output 7: Decision support tools and systems
Develop and dissemination of climate info/prods
Number of countries that developed & disseminated prods
29 29 29 29
18
20
22
24
21
18
20
21
1
10
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
18
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
19 /25
Output 7: Decision support tools and systems
Rate of quality of the climate products
•
All the NMHS developed
and disseminated
products that take into
account global and
regional products
25
20
15
10
•
NOT all the Members
participate in RCOFs
5
0
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
Low
Medium
High
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
20 /25
Output 7: Decision support tools and systems
Rate of the Timeliness of
issued products
5
7
10
Very Timely
Timely
Regular
Untimely
2
4
1
4
5
5
8
9
Level of Skill of
Climate Prediction
Low (1-2)
25%
3
3
5
High (4-5)
36%
Regular
39%
7
Monthly Seasonal Climate Long-term
watch
Relative low predictability and poor skill
of climate predictions over the region
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
Output 9: Decision-support products and services
(established or strengthened)
35
30
25
20
31
28
26
21
28
19
22 22
26
User Satisfaction to the
provision of climate prods
28
23
15
10
5
0
Number of countries that
provide tailored climate prods
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Very Satisfied (5)
Satisfied (4)
Indifferent (3)
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
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Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
Output 9: Decision-support products and services
(established or strengthened)
Level of quality of the national climate
information/products
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
No applicable
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
22 /25
Analysis of country based information
from the “WMO 2015 Impacts Survey”
Output 10: Monitoring systems
Number of countries that conducted analysis of
social/economic benefits
19
20
14
14
10
8
General
Public
Emergency
management
Aviation
Marine
Agriculture
Not
applicable
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
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Some preliminary conclusions (I)
•
Relative good implementation of GFCS in RA VI,
although there is still room for improvement, in
particular by elimination of sub-regional differences
•
The designated RCC Network provides a substantial
support for the GFCS deployment at national level
Good access to WMO global and regional products
•
Relatively good perceived quality of basic climate
information
•
Relatively good perceived quality of climate forecasting
information although the limiting low predictability at
seasonal scales (and beyond) over the region is an
obstacle
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
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Some preliminary conclusions (II)
25 /25
•
Satisfactory development of tailored products and services
in support of decision-making for a variety of sectors. Need
to strengthen user feedback and validation of end-uses.
•
COPERNICUS (C3S), ERA4CS (and other EU initiatives) are
providing a very relevant support to GFCS in RA VI
Need to expand this support to sub-regions outside of EU
•
Many initiatives still in the research domain aiming to
implement Climate Services in RAVI
(EUPORIAS, MOSES, CLARITY, etc.)
GFCS Special Session of Presidents of RAs and TCs, Geneva, Switzerland, 9th May 2017
Thank you for your
attention!