ARKANSASC3TEACHERSHUB 9thGradeCivicsInquiry
CanPollsBeTrusted?
PublicDomainImage
SupportingQuestions
1. Whattypesofpollsexist?
2. Howdoesthewording,tone,orlocationofuseofthequestioninfluenceananswer?
3. Whichpollsarevalid?
THISWORKISLICENSEDUNDERACREATIVECOMMONSATTRIBUTION-NONCOMMERCIAL-SHAREALIKE4.0
INTERNATIONALLICENSE.
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ARKANSASC3TEACHERSHUB 9thGradeCivicsInquiry
CanPollsBeTrusted?
ArkansasStandardsfor
SocialStudies
PD.5.C.4Assesstheinfluenceofmediaontheelectoralprocess(e.g.,newsreporting,political
cartoons,publicopinionpolls,Internet,propagandatechniques,socialmedia).
StagingtheQuestion
Reviewasetof“fake”pollsanddiscusshowpollinghasbecomeacontroversialissue.
SupportingQuestion1
Whattypesofpollsexist?
Formative
PerformanceTask
CreateaTchartshowingpollingtypes
andexamplequestionsforeach.
FeaturedSources
SourceA:Gallup:WhatisPublic
OpinionPollingandWhyisit
Important?
SourceB:ConstitutionalRights
Foundation:ElectionCentralAssessing
PublicOpinionPolls
SourceC:Univ.ofPennsylvania:Case
StudyI:The1936LiteraryDigestPoll
SupportingQuestion2
Canthewording,tone,orlocationof
useofthequestioninfluencean
answer?
SupportingQuestion3
Arepollsvalid?
Formative
PerformanceTask
Developaclaimsupportedbyevidence
thatanswersthesupportingquestion.
FeaturedSources
FeaturedSources
SourceA:PewResearch:Questionaire
Design
SourceA:UniversityofCaliforniaSanta
Barbara:ElectionPolls–Accuracy
RecordinPresidentialElections
Formative
PerformanceTask
Conductaseriesofpollsandcompile
datatolookforpatterns/bias.
SourceB:Gallup:TheScientific
ApproachtoQuestionWording
Differences
SourceB:PewResearch:AreNational
PollsReliablePredictorsofMidterm
Elections?
SourceC:PewResearch:Justhowdoes
thegeneralelectionexitpollwork,
anyway?
SourceC:UniversityofPennsylvania:
PollingthePollingExperts
ARGUMENTCanPollsbeTrusted?Constructanargument(e.g.,detailedoutline,poster,essay)that
discussesthecompellingquestionusingspecificclaimsandrelevantevidencefromcontemporarysources
whileacknowledgingcompetingviews.
Summative
PerformanceTask
EXTENSIONParticipateinaclassroomforumtodiscussothermethodsofpredictingelectionoutcomes
andwhatmightonedayreplacepolls.
UNDERSTANDInvestigatearecentpoliticalpollandthegroupsofpeoplewhowereinvolvedinit,and
focusonhowtheyinterpretpollresults.
ASSESSExaminetheextenttowhichthecurrentuseofpollshasbeenusedasaneffectivepredictorof
electionoutcomes.
TakingInformed
Action
•
ACTCreateaseriesofpostersexplainingthe“do’s”and“don’ts”ofpollingsothatotherscaninterpret
themmoreaccurately.Thesecanbeusedintheschooloratacommunityeventwherestudentscan
interactwithpeopleexplainingtheprocess.
Featuredsourcesaresuggestedandlinksareprovided.Itmaybethattheselinksarebrokenandweapologizeinadvance
fortheinconvenience.
THISWORKISLICENSEDUNDERACREATIVECOMMONSATTRIBUTION-NONCOMMERCIAL-SHAREALIKE4.0
INTERNATIONALLICENSE.
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ARKANSASC3TEACHERSHUB Overview
InquiryDescription
Thisinquiryleadsstudentsthroughaninvestigationofwhetherpollingcanbetrusted.Byinvestigatingthe
compellingquestion“CanPollsBeTrusted?”studentsevaluatewhatpollsare,howtheyareused,andhow
wearegrowingmoreconfusedbythem.Theformativeperformancetasksbuildonknowledgeandskills
throughthecourseoftheinquiryandhelpstudentsjudgepollsmoreeffectively.Studentscreatean
evidence-basedargumentaboutthetrustworthinessofpolling.
Thisinquiryhighlightsthefollowingstandard:
PD.5.C.4Assesstheinfluenceofmediaontheelectoralprocess(e.g.,newsreporting,political
cartoons,publicopinionpolls,Internet,propagandatechniques,socialmedia)..
Note:Thisinquiryisexpectedtotakesixtoeight40-minuteclassperiods.Theinquirytimeframecouldexpandif
teachersthinktheirstudentsneedadditionalinstructionalexperiences(i.e.,supportingquestions,formative
performancetasks,andfeaturedsources).Teachersareencouragedtoadapttheinquiriesinordertomeetthe
needsandinterestsoftheirparticularstudents.Resourcescanalsobemodifiedasnecessarytomeet
individualizededucationprograms(IEPs)orSection504Plansforstudentswithdisabilities.
StructureoftheInquiry
Inaddressingthecompellingquestion“CanPollsBeTrusted?”studentsworkthroughaseriesofsupporting
questions,formativeperformancetasks,andfeaturedsourcesinordertoconstructanargumentsupportedby
evidencewhileacknowledgingcompetingperspectives.
StagingtheCompellingQuestion
Instagingthecompellingquestion,“CanPollsBeTrusted?”teachersmaypromptstudentswithhandoutsthat
illustratevariouspollsfromvettedpollsterslikeGallup,andfromquestionablesourceslikeHuffingtonNews.You
mayalsowanttocalluptheGallupwebsite(FeaturedSourceforStaging)andshowstudentswhatkindofdatais
trackedbypollsters.Thiscouldbeginthedialoguewithcontemporaryinformation.Ifnotcomfortableusing
contemporaryillustrationstobeginthediscussionoutofthefearofbeingtoosensational,youcoulduseanyone
ofthese,easilyfoundonline:1936LiteraryDigeststrawpollshowingAlfLandonwoulddefeatFDR,1948Gallup
pollthathadDeweyoverTruman,orthe1996ArizonaprimarywherethreemajortvnetworkshadBobDole
cominginlastoutofthreerunning,andhewouldgoontogetthepartynomination.Thesearebrieflysummarized
ontheNationalConstitutionCentersPage,foundatConstitutionCenter.
Allshowthatanypollmayshowresultsthatareanythingfromaccuratetohighlyinaccurate,anditiscriticalthat
studentsknowhowtojudgethevalidityofapollbyunderstandingwhattheyareandhowtheyarecreated.
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ARKANSASC3TEACHERSHUB ThisshouldbeginaclassroomQandAaboutwhatpollsare,howtheyareused,andwhymanyareconsidered
“fake”andhowthatimpactsourconfidenceinthepollswereadandhearaboutdaily.
SupportingQuestion1
Thefirstsupportingquestion—“Whattypesofpollsexist?”—hasstudentscreateaT-chartshowingpollingtypes
andexamplequestionsforeachtype.Theformativeperformancetaskasksstudentstodebatethequestionof
“Arepollsvalid?”Thefeaturedsourcesforthisquestionwillsetthefoundationfortherestoftheresearchofpolls
andtheirfeatures.FeaturedSourceAis“WhatisPublicOpinionPollingandWhyisitImportant?”toshowwhat
pollsare.FeaturedSourceBis“ElectionCentralAssessingPublicOpinionPolls”todeterminewhyweuseusepolls
andtheextenttowhichtheyimpactelections.FeaturedSourceCis“CaseStudyI:the1936LiteraryDigestPoll”
thatfirstillustratedthepossibleinaccuraciesofpolling.
LinkstoFeaturedSources:
SourceA:Gallup
WhatisPublicOpinionPollingandWhyisitImportant?
SourceB:ConstitutionalRightsFoundation
ElectionCentralAssessingPublicOpinionPolls
SourceC:Univ.ofPennsylvania
CaseStudyI:The1936LiteraryDigestPoll
SupportingQuestion2
Forthesecondsupportingquestion—“Canthewording,toneorlocationofuseofthequestioninfluenceand
answer?”—studentswilllookatthedesigningofquestions,andsamplingtechniquesinordertocreatetheirown
polls.Inadditiontotheresourcesfromtheprevioussupportingquestion,thefeaturedsourcesprovidestudents
withadditionalmaterialsthatallowthemtojudgeforthemselveswhatmakesapollanaccurateandhowto
identifyifthosefeaturesarepresent.FeaturedSourceAis“QuestionaireDesign”.FeaturedSourceBis“The
ScientificApproachtoQuesitonWordingDifferences”.FeaturedSourceCisalookat“Justhowdoesthegeneral
electionexitpollwork,anyway?”
LinkstoFeaturedSources:
SourceA:PewResearch
Questionnairedesign
SourceB:Gallup
TheScientificApproachtoQuestionWordingDifferences
SourceC:PewResearch
Justhowdoesthegeneralelectionexitpollwork,anyway?
SupportingQuestion3
Thethirdsupportingquestion—“ArePollsValid?”—asksstudentstodevelopaclaimsupportedbyevidencethat
answersthesupportingquestion.Inadditiontothepreviousfeaturedsources,thesourcesforthistasklookat
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ARKANSASC3TEACHERSHUB whatexpertsthinkaboutpollingbothhistoricallyandmostrecently.FeaturedSourceAisElectionPolls–
AccuracyRecondinPresidentialElections”.FeaturedSourceBis“AreNationalPollsReliablePredictorsof
MidtermElections?”.FeaturedSourceCis“PollingthePollingExperts”.
LinkstoFeaturedSources:
SourceA:UniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbara
ElectionPolls–AccuracyRecordinPresidentialElections
SourceB:PewResearch
AreNationalPollsReliablePredictorsofMidtermElections?
SourceC:UniversityofPennsylvania
PollingthePollingExperts
SummativePerformanceTask
Atthispointintheinquiry,studentshaveexaminedsourcesthatdelineatedwhatpollsare,howtheyare
constructedanduse,andwhatweasAmericansthinkofthemtoday.
Studentsshouldbeexpectedtodemonstratethebreadthoftheirunderstandingsandtheirabilitiestouseevidence
frommultiplesourcestosupporttheirclaims.Inthistask,studentsconstructanevidence-basedargumentusing
multiplesourcestoanswerthecompellingquestion“CanPollsbeTrusted?”Itisimportanttonotethatstudents’
argumentscouldtakeavarietyofforms,includingadetailedoutline,poster,oressay.
Students’argumentswilllikelyvary,butcouldincludeanyofthefollowing:
•
Pollsmaynotbetrustedwhenmanycitizensdonotrespondtopollsevenifgiventheopportunity.
•
Pollsmaynotbetrustedifvotersparticiptebutdon’twanttocommittotheirchoice,misleadingpollsters.
•
Pollingcanbetrustedbecauseitisthemostreliableandtime-testedmethodofdeterminingwhatthegeneral
publicfeelsaboutanyparticularcandidate.
Toextendtheirarguments,teachersmayhavestudentsparticipatedinaclassroomforumtodisucssother
methodsofpredictingelectionoutcomesandwhatmightonedayreplacepollsasweknowthemtoday.
StudentshavetheopportunitytoTakeInformedActionbydrawingontheirunderstandingsofthevalidityor
reliabilityofPublicOpinionPolls.Tounderstand,studentscaninvestigatearecentpoliticalpollandthegroupsof
peoplewhowereinvolvedinit,andfocusonhowthoseinvolvedinterpretpollresults.Toassesstheissue,
studentscanexaminetheextenttowhichthecurrentuseofpollshasbeenaneffectivepredictorofmostelection
outcomes.Toact,studentscancreateaseriesofpostersexplainingthe“do’s”and“don’t’s”ofpollingsothatothers
caninterpretthemmoreaccurately.Thesecanbeusedintheschooloratacommunityeventwherestudentscan
interactwithpeopleexplainingtheprocess.
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