GU POLITICS FELLOW TONY SAYEGH
Discussion Group Outline
HAS THE 2016 ELECTION CHANGED AMERICAN
POLITICS FOREVER (OR AT LEAST A GENERATION)?
Discussion Group Synopsis
Political practitioners from both sides are engaged in profound reflection on the political story that
was “Campaign 2016.” Two essential sub-themes establish the framework here: (a) Is Trump’s less
traditional style campaign (less money, less TV, less staff vs. greater earned media, social media and
big rallies) the new normal or exclusive to his candidacy; (b) has this election realigned the electoral
college map indefinitely, formalizing a shift of the white working class “rust belt” states into the
Republican column, while solidifying states with heavy Hispanic and other minority populations (like
Nevada and Colorado) to the Democrats. What has changed permanently and what is unique to
2016? From polling to press coverage to the role of political parties, we will cover it and establish the
most critical lessons to be learned from Campaign 2016.
Week 1 – 2016: The year journalism died?
We will review the year in political coverage and analyze how the campaigns were covered by various
press organizations. It was suggested that several news outfits crossed a line in their outward
opposition to Trump’s candidacy expanding from their editorial pages to the “A section” which was
traditionally reserved for straight news stories. The New York Times subsequently apologized to their
readership after the election. Nearly every editorial page in the country, including those that have
historically remained neutral or even supported Republicans in the past, came out against Trump.
Then, leaked emails from the “wikileaks” dump seemed to confirm that there was collaboration if not
outright collusion between the Clinton campaign and some of the press organizations covering them.
This led to suggestions that 2016 was the year that “journalism died,” with the activist role taken by
the media during the campaign exceeded reasonable level of bias that has been historically factored
in. But perhaps worse, was the fact that almost every media agency completely misread the
electorate and the election, and reflects a deeply detached relationship with the rest of the nation.
Where does the media go from here?
Week 2 – 2016: What did the polling really tell us, and why the “pundits” mostly got it wrong?
Was it polls or the pundits who got it wrong or both? From Brexit to Trump’s victory, how some
indicators were there, but most analysts didn’t see it. Though polling got it largely wrong this year.
We’ll explore why.
Week 3 – Political parties became part of the story, and so did their caucus, primary and delegate
system
From Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s ouster on the eve of the DNC convention, to Reince Preibus’s
carefully choreographed dance through the nomination minefield that has led him to the West Wing,
the political parties were more prominent in this year’s presidential contest than they have been in
recent past. So were some arcane rules that seemed to capture the national attention for a moment
in time. From super delegates to a brokered convention, from DNC fundraising shattering records to
RNC ground game coming through in the clutch, 2016 illuminated the major roles of political parties
that have not always been as obvious to the general public. How do the respective parties transform
in light of the 2016 dynamics.
Week 4 – Does dominance in fundraising, paid media and field organization matter anymore?
Classic campaign advantages did not prove decisive in this election. Is this the way it will be in
campaigns going forward or is it limited to the personalities of the candidates?
Week 5 – Earned Media and the power of celebrity candidates
Some estimates suggest the fair market value of the earned media Donald Trump received to be in
the billions. But is it the earned media itself, or the fact that people paid more attention to the media
about both candidates who were celebrities in their own right? We will also examine each
campaign’s approach to targeting local and state media organizations.
Week 6 – Social Media and the Digital Awaking of America
Bigger data and more tweeting, 2016 highlighted the power of the digital battlefield in campaigns and
elections. Have we entered a brave new world for future presidential races?
Week 7 – Messaging and how to understand the electorate
The story of 2016 cannot be properly told without a full review of how each candidate’s message was
received by the electorate. From the message itself, to the discipline in staying on it, 2016 in many
ways was a “Tale of Two Messages” tailored to two different parts of the electorate. Why the Trump
message prevailed. We will review it from all aspects of traditional message development.
Week 8 – 2016: The Electoral College Map – how does it realign in future elections
Do the shifts in the electoral-college map of 2016 represent a realignment or temporary opportunity
for Trump and the Republican party? Is heavy participation from the Obama coalition exclusive to
him, or can another Democrat reclaim the enthusiasm and make them a force again? Do states with
growing Hispanic and other minority populations give Democrats a greater opportunity to expand
their map?