Committee on NASA Science
Mission Extensions
NAS Keck Center, Washington DC
February 1-2, 2016
Steven W. Clarke, Director
Heliophysics Division
Science Mission Directorate
NASA Heliophysics
Strategic Goal: Understand the Sun and its interactions with Earth and the
solar system, including space weather
Solar Terrestrial
Probes
Strategic Mission
Flight Programs
Living With a Star
Strategic Mission
Flight Programs
Solve the fundamental physics mysteries
of heliophysics: Explore and examine the
physical processes in the space
environment from the sun to the Earth
and throughout the solar system.
Build the knowledge to forecast space
weather throughout the heliosphere:
Develop the knowledge and capability to
detect and predict extreme conditions in
space to protect life and society and to
safeguard human and robotic explorers
beyond Earth.
Understand the nature of our home in
space: Advance our understanding of the
connections that link the sun, the Earth,
planetary space environments, and the
outer reaches of our solar system.
Explorers
Smaller flight programs,
competed science topics,
often PI-led
Research
Scientific research projects
utilizing existing data plus
theory and modeling
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Heliophysics Mission Portfolio
Given the substantial investment the US government makes in these
missions, it is prudent and reasonable to maximize the science return
on these investments.
Over the course of almost 2 decades (starting 1997), NASA
Heliophysics has implemented the Senior Review process which calls
upon the science community to help assess the scientific productivity
and value of missions operating past their original design lifetimes, and
provide to NASA, as one of the findings, a rank-ordered list of those
missions.
This findings have significant input into the future planning of the
Heliophysics portfolio, in terms of directing the evolution of the portfolio
(i.e. are there physical regimes missing?), and the annual budget
allocation.
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Heliophysics Mission Portfolio
• The different classes of missions come with different levels of
complexity, scientific capability, and requirements for location in space.
These factors will lead to cost differentials, and levels of risk that the
Agency is willing to accept.
• Larger, more complex missions will be more expensive, and so the
Agency will expect broader scientific return, will accept the need to
develop new technologies and new capabilities, and will be less risk
tolerant leading to additional testing and redundancy requirements.
–
These correspond to NASA Class A and Class B missions
• Smaller, less complex missions will be expected to have more
focused scientific objectives and to leverage existing technologies and
capabilities; the Agency is more risk tolerant leading to acceptance of
selected single-string systems and tailoring of mission assurance
requirements.
–
These correspond to NASA Class C and Class D missions
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Heliophysics Mission Portfolio
Heliophysics missions reflect the primary classes of SMD missions
• Strategic Missions
Initiated by NASA generally in response to recommendations in the Decadal
Survey
– NASA-led strategic heliophysics missions are generally in the large or medium
mission class
– NASA also initiates strategic partnerships with other space agencies, generally
resulting in a NASA contribution to a partner-led mission
–
• PI-led competed missions
Initiated by a PI-led team in the form of an Heliophysics Explorers proposal to
NASA, either for a full mission or a mission of opportunity
– Helioophysics Explorers full mission classes are small (SMEX) and medium
(MIDEX) size
– Mission of opportunity classes included contributions to a partner-led mission,
small complete missions for the cost of a MO, and suborbital-class missions
–
Examples
Full Mission
Contribution
Strategic
MMS, SPP
Solar Orbiter
Competed
ICON, GOLD
CINDI, TWINS
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Heliophysics System Observatory
Heliophysics Mission Timeline 1995-2025
Heliophysics Mission Timeline
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Why Extend Missions?
Heliophysics is a field that encompasses a number of sub-discipline areas which are all
intimately interconnected:
•
Solar physics: the processes on the Sun and its extended outer atmosphere
(photosphere, chromoshere, and corona) and the kinetics driving these observed
phenomena inside the star. The Sun is mildly variable with a periodicity of ~22 years;
•
Solar wind and the heliosphere: the region between the outer corona and the planets
encompassing the entire solar system out to ~121 AU (as measured by Voyager 1)
containing all manner and energies of particles, waves, and fields;
•
The magnetosphere: an extremely complex and dynamic region around the Earth
caused by the existence of the Earth’s magnetic field which responds dramatically with
solar wind variations;
•
The ionosphere, thermosphere, and mesosphere (ITM): the upper portions of the
Earth’s atmosphere, which also respond to solar wind variations as part of the
connection of the Sun to the Earth.
The Sun’s 22 year cycle means that phenomena in differing places within this complex,
coupled system will look differently depending on where, and when in the solar cycle one
observes them.
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Why Extend Missions?
SMD selects missions on the basis of science goals that are important at the
time of their selections, whether as a Decadal priority or through a competitive
selection. However, almost every mission will produce serendipitous results that
were unexpected and which will further our understanding of the physical
processes that move the Heliophysics discipline forward, and these discoveries
are typically made by missions in extended operations.
As an example, Voyagers 1 & 2 were launched in 1977 and after their planetary
encounters, were extended by a number of Senior Reviews as they traversed the
solar system. The particle, wave, and fields experiments of the two Voyager
spacecraft have provided the only in-situ measurements of the outer heliosphere:
something never planned in the original mission concept. By extending the
missions to the early 21st century, we now have the first-ever measurements of
space beyond the heliopause: interstellar space. This could only be
accomplished by extending the mission to the present date.
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Why Extend Missions?
Another example, is from the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere,
Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission which studies the thermosphere,
ionosphere and mesosphere of the Earth (the end of the Sun to Earth
interaction). It has confirmed the surprisingly fast CO2 increase in the upper
atmosphere raising questions of interconnectivity. And while most climate
models predict an increase to be roughly equal across the globe, TIMED has
observed a faster, preferred increase in the northern hemisphere. Finding such
an unexpected trend is only possible because of the 14 years that TIMED has
been in operation, as opposed to the original 2 year prime mission.
A final example is the simultaneous, full 360o degree view of the Sun by
STEREO. Working with SDO, STEREO has enabled, for the first time,
uninterrupted observations of an active region on the Sun as it emerges,
develops, and decays over several weeks or months. This could only be
accomplished during the extended STEREO mission.
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Why Extend Missions?
To place the opportunity costs for the extended operations of the Heliophysics
suite of missions in context, in FY16, the entire Heliophysics budget is $640M.
The entire portfolio of all operational Heliophysics missions is $108.3M (this
includes MMS, which is in its prime mission). If one excludes MMS, then the
total for all the extended operating missions is $78.1M. This represents 12% of
the entire Heliophysics budget for this fiscal year, or an average investment of
$4.6M per mission. Indeed if one were to breakdown the cost per satellite
(because some missions have multiple spacecraft involved) the average cost per
satellite is even lower, at $2.8M.
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NASA Heliophysics
What fractions of your division’s budget are going towards
missions in development, prime phase of operations, and
extended phase(s)?
FY2016 Heliophysics Budget
Research
Development
Prime(MMS)
Operating Missions
Management and Other
Data Systems
Suborbital
Total
68,658
352,027
30,138
78,170
19,811
19,890
71,420
640,114
11%
55%
5%
12%
3%
3%
11%
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NASA Heliophysics
Please list the missions currently in operational mission phase.
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NASA Heliophysics
What methods (including any metrics) are in place to review
mission performance and what criteria are used to assess
prospects for extensions?
The reviews NASA carries out for mission extensions (Senior Reviews)
take a number of factors into account:
Scientific merit;
Promise of future impact and Productivity;
Progress towards previously agreed-to Prioritized Mission Objectives (PMOs);
Impact of past scientific results;
Accessibility, usability, and utility of data;
Spacecraft and instrument health & safety;
Productivity and vitality of the science team;
Level and quality of the stewardship of the asset;
Effectiveness of communications to the general public.
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NASA Heliophysics
Please describe (briefly) the senior review process currently used
by your division to assess operating missions which are
candidates for extension.
The Senior Review assists NASA in maximizing the scientific productivity from
its operating missions within a constrained budget. NASA uses the findings
from the Senior Review to:
Prioritize continued funding of the operating missions and projects;
– Define an implementation approach to achieve heliophysics strategic objectives;
– Provide programmatic and budgetary direction to missions and projects for the
near-term (2 years of the date of the review);
– Issue initial funding guidelines for out-years (subject to the next Senior Review).
–
Held every two years, the Senior Review evaluates proposals for continued
funding for its operating missions and projects. It is held as the highest level of
peer review within the Heliophysics program.
All classes of missions including strategic missions, PI-led Explorer missions,
and foreign-led missions, in which the U.S is a minor partner, are subject to this
review process.
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NASA Heliophysics
Please explain whether there are differences in how you review
missions of different scales (i.e., small, medium, flagship)?
Heliophysics has always conducted the review for all missions via a
single panel due to the ensemble nature of the data being collected by
the missions. This assembly of missions is called the Heliophysics
System Observatory (HSO). Because of the complex and
interconnected nature of the physical processes being studied, it seen
as essential to have all the components assessed at the same time by
the same panel.
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NASA Heliophysics
Are data collected by missions in your division used by other
organizations (e.g., NOAA, DoD, others), and if so, does NASA
consider the impact of mission extensions/cancellations on these
organizations?
There are aspects of the science being returned by some of the
Heliophysics missions that are used by NOAA: specifically the LASCO
data on SOHO, and some of the waves and particle meausrements
made by ACE and Wind. It has been NASA Heliophysics policy that a
staff member form NOAA’s SWPC be invited as a voting member of the
Senior Review panel, so that the concerns of mission
extensions/terminations are addressed.
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NASA Heliophysics
Are similar types of data that are being collected by other, nonNASA missions (either by other agencies like NOAA, or foreign
space programs) considered when making mission extension
decisions?
The context of foreign space programs is very important to NASA but
having good, cooperative mission planning results in no redundancies.
However if there were duplicative data being taken by another agency,
then Heliophysics would certainly examine the need to continue such a
mission on the NASA side via the Senior Review process.
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NASA Heliophysics
How does Deep Space Network time (or other limited resources,
such as engineering personnel availability) affect mission
extension decisions?
For DSN or engineering support, this typically does not happen
because by the time we get to mission extensions, that support for that
mission is built into the various baseline planning.
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NASA Heliophysics
What is your perspective on the current senior review processes –
for example, what works, what doesn’t, is the cadence of senior
reviews close to optimal, what might be improved, etc.?
The 2-year period seems rather frequent, but it is prescribed by public
law. We would welcome your input on this aspect of the mission
extension process. There are burdens and overheads on the missions
due to writing proposals, uncertainty in planning, staff attrition,
disruption/distraction from the primary goal of obtaining science, and
cost.
In short, the process is excellent, but cadence might not be optimal.
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NASA Heliophysics
Do you have any thoughts about alternatives to the senior review
process?
This has been discussed before every review held: Heliophysics has
been doing Senior Reviews since 1997 (originally as the Sun-Earth
Connection). We think we have optimized it as best we can.
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NASA Heliophysics
How do you use the senior review recommendations in making
mission extension decisions? What other factors do you use
when making a mission extension decision?
The Senior Review is the primary factor. However, there are other
factors, such as the budget, agency or national policy, and international
partnerships.
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NASA Heliophysics
How does the mission extension process fit into the overall
budget process?
The Senior Review is timed to precede the agency’s annual budget
cycle, so that the findings about the missions and their possible
extensions are on-hand as input before final budgetary decisions are
made.
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NASA Heliophysics
How does the decadal survey schedule and process influence
mission extension decisions?
The Heliophysics Senior Review is the primary factor influencing
mission extension decisions. However, there are other factors, such as
the budget, programmatic considerations, agency or national policy,
and international partnerships.
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NASA Heliophysics
Are there general principles and innovative ideas that can be
applied to reduce costs and increase the science costeffectiveness of extended missions? How do you assess the
potential for increased risk associated with such approaches?
In order to maximize the investment that NASA has made into the
design, construction, and operation of a mission, it is a reasonable
expectation that continuing the operations of the mission beyond its
prime phase is both scientifically sensible and fiscally responsible.
Saying that, in its extended phase, NASA will accept higher operational
risk, lower data collection efficiency, and instrument/mission
degradation due to aging. It is assumed that, along with this greater
risk, the cost to implement an extended mission will be less than during
the prime phase of operations.
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Backup
Senior Review 2015
Mission Rankings
Science Ranking
HSO Contribution Ranking
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Heliophysics Division - Science Mission Directorate
09 December 2015
Programs / Missions
Resource Management
Ralph Beaty+
Jennifer Holt+
Director
Steve Clarke
Deputy Director
Peg Luce
Chief Scientist – Vacant
Secretary: Gloria Stewart
Admin Asst: Aaluk Edwardson*
Program Support Specialist: Jackie Mackall
Cross Cutting
Education Manager: Lika Guhathakurta
•
Ecucation Coopertive Agreements, Total Eclipse 2017, Heliophysics Summer
School, Post-Doc Program
Division Public Affairs: Dwayne Brown
ISRO Lead: Lika Guhathakurta
Space Weather Lead: Elsayed Talaat
Chief Technologist: Dan Moses
•
SMD Cubesat Implementation Program (SCIP)
Heliophysics Research
Program Manager: Arik Posner
Program Support: EJ Summerlin*
Grand Challenge (GCR): Mona Kessel
Guest Investigator (GI): Bill Paterson*
Infrastructure & Data Environment Enhancements (IDEE): Jeff Hayes
Supporting Research (SR): Arik Posner (SH)/Elsayed Talaat
(Mag/ITM)
TIDeS: Dan Moses
+ Member of the Resources Mgmt Division
* Detailee, IPA, or contractor
Program Scientist
Living With a Star (LWS)
Program
Elsayed Talaat
Science
Jeff Morrill*
SET
Jeff Newmark
SOC
Jeff Newmark
SPP
Elsayed Talaat
Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP)
Program
Mona Kessel
STP-5
Arik Posner
Smith
Explorers
Program
Jeff Newmark
ICON
Jeff Morrill*
GOLD
Elsayed Talaat
EXP-XX
TBD
Sounding Rockets & Range
Program
Dan Moses
Operating Missions
ACE
Arik Posner
AIM
Elsayed Talaat
Geotail
Bill Paterson
Hinode
Jeff Newmark
IBEX
Arik Posner
IRIS
Jeff Newmark
MMS
Mona Kessel
RHESSI
Jeff Newmark
SDO
Lika Guhathakurta
SOHO
Jeff Newmark
STEREO
Lika Guhathakurta
THEMIS
Elsayed Talaat
TIMED
Elsayed Talaat
TWINS
Mona Kessel
Van Allen
Mona Kessel
Voyager 1 & 2 Arik Posner
Wind
Arik Posner
Program Executive
John Lee
John Lee
Joe Smith
John Lee
Bill Stabnow
Joe
Willis Jenkins
Willis Jenkins
Bill Stabnow
TBD
George Albright
Jeff Hayes
Blue – In Development
Green – Pre-Formulation
2018
2018
2015
2012