UNWTO
General
Assembly
19th Session
Gyeongju
Republic of Korea
10 October 2011
Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend
World
International tourist arrivals
1,600
1,400
1,200
million
1,000
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2010*
800
600
940 mn
881 mn
400
528 mn
200
0
1995
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Tourism Towards 2030
• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area
of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.
• Objectives:
–
–
–
–
Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans
Provide a global reference on tourism future development
Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects
Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and
activities
• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in
the two decades 2010-2030
– Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are
used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of
origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010
– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with
international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent
variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence
and business travel potential, and also cost of transport
Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate pace
International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
12
10
10
9
9
8
9
8
7
7
6
6
4
4
4
3
3
2
0
7
6
6
7
6
5
4
3
4
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
1980/'79
1985/'84
1990/'89
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995/'94
2000/'99
2005/'04
2010/'09
2015/'14
2020/'19
2025/'24
2030/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average
International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
80
70
60
58
56
49
45 45
39
40
30
25
20
26
22
21 20
20
16
15
20
10
4
0
0
27
22
13
8
33
28
0
-1
-2
-11
-20
-35
-40
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
International tourist arrivals to reach
1.8 billion by 2030
International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emerging economy destinations to surpass
advanced destinations in 2015
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,250
1,000
emerging economies
750
advanced economies
500
250
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
Inbound tourism by region of destination
International Tourist Arrivals, million
800
Europe
700
600
Asia and the Pacific
500
400
300
Americas
200
Middle East
100
Africa
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
1980
Middle East
Africa
3%
Americas
23%
3%
2010
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
8%
16%
Asia and the Pacific
Middle East
22%
6%
Europe
63%
2030
Africa
Americas
5%
Asia and the Pacific
14%
30%
Middle East
8%
Europe
51%
Africa
7%
Europe
41%
North-East Asia will be the most visited
subregion in 2030
Europe continues to lead in international
arrivals received per 100 of population
No major change in share by purpose of visit
International tourism by purpose of visit
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,000
900
Leisure, recreation and holidays
800
700
600
VFR, health, religion, other
500
400
300
200
Business and professional
100
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Air transport will continue to increase
market share, but at a slower pace
International tourism by means of transport
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,000
by air
750
over surface
500
250
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Travel between regions continues to grow
slightly faster than within the same region
International tourism by region of destination and origin
International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
100
90
80
within same region
70
60
50
40
between regions
30
20
10
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific will also be the
outbound region that grows most
Outbound tourism by region of origin
900
1980
1995
International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
2010
832
2030
800
700
600
541
509
500
400
308
265
300
204
200
160
90
100
6
12
30
71
110
169
88
81
25
6
10
37
0
Africa
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Middle East
Outbound tourism participation is highest in
Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific
Outbound tourism by region of origin
100
1980
1995
International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
2010
2030
89
90
80
70
57
60
50
36
40
30
20
10
24
22
6
9
14
12
2
1
3
14
25
21
17
17
12
6
1
3
6
5
6
0
World
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
Americas
Asia and the
Pacific
Europe
Middle East
What if assumptions change?
Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis
International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000
1,750
Actual data 1980-2010
Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)
1,500
Central projection
Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)
1,250
A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
1,000
750
500
250
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
One-Page Tourism Towards 2030
• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more
moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030),
as a result of four factors:
–
–
–
–
The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers
Lower GDP growth, as economies mature
A lower elasticity of travel to GDP
A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones
• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for
further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new
destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do
shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business
environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources.
• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and
economic benefits and minimising negative impacts
• Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and
inclusive
Tourism towards
2030 /
Global Overview
Thank you very much
for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org