CHARLES LEES,
UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD
Multiparty government in Europe: How
many, how big, where, and in what
context?
Presentation to Coalition at One Conference, 29th-30th of June at the
Institute for Government, 2 Carlton Gardens, London SW1Y 5AA, UK
SUMMARY
How many?
o 424 Western European Governments by type, 1945-1999
How big?
o 239 Western European Coalitions by type, 1945-1999
Where?
o 424 Western European Governments by country by type, 19451999
o 239 Western European Coalitions by country by type, 19451999
SUMMARY
In what context?
o Electoral and Party Systems
o Key structural attributes of the polity
o Coalition agreements
o Conflict and conflict management
Conclusions
HOW MANY?
Figure 1. 424 Western European Governments by type, 19451999
239
250
167
200
150
100
50
18
0
N Single-Party Governments
N Multi-Party Governments
N Other Goverments
Source: data adapted from Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008
HOW BIG?
Figure 2. 239 Western European Coalitions by type, 1945-1999
108
120
100
83
80
60
48
40
20
0
N Minimal Winning Coalitions
N Surplus Majority Coalitions
N Minority Coalitions
Source: data adapted from Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008
WHERE?
Figure 3. 424 Western European Governments by country by
type, 1945-1999
Lux
NL
Fin
Bel
Ger
Aus
Fra
Ita
Por
Den
Ire
Nor
Gre
Swe
Spa
UK
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% Single party governments
% Coalition governments
% Other (including transitional or non-partisan governments)
Source: data adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
WHERE?
Figure 4. 239 Western European Coalitions by country by type,
1945-1999
Den
Nor
Ire
Swe
Ita
Fin
NL
Fra
Bel
Por
Gre
Ger
Aus
Lux
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% Minority Coalitions
% Minimal Winning Coalitions
% Surplus Majority Coalitions
Source: data adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008; Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Electoral and Party System context
o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index)
o ‘Effective-number’ of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index)
Key structural attributes of the polity
o Bicameralism
o Federalism
o Consociationalism
Coalition Agreements
Conflict and conflict management
o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences;
constant-sum and variable-sum games)
o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Figure 5. Government type for 16 European party systems by
relative disproportionality of electoral systems and ‘effective
number of parties’, 1990-2010
10
'Effective number' of parties in parliament
9
Belgium
8
7
6
Netherlands
Denmark
5
Sweden
4
Austria
3
Italy
Finland
Norway
Luxembourg
Germany
Ireland
Spain
Portugal
2
France
Greece
UK
1
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Disproportionality of electoral system
Source: Lees, 2011
14
16
18
20
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Electoral and Party System context
o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index)
o ‘Effective-number’ of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index)
Key structural attributes of the polity
o Bicameralism
o Federalism
o Consociationalism
Coalition Agreements
Conflict and conflict management
o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences;
constant-sum and variable-sum games)
o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Table 1. 14 coalition-prone systems by key structural attributes
Country
Bicameral?
Federal?
Consociational?
Austria
Yes
Yes
No
Belgium
Yes
Yes
Yes
Denmark
No
No
No
Finland
No
No
No
France
Yes
No
No
Germany
Yes
Yes
No
Greece
No
No
No
Rep of Ireland
Yes
No
No
Italy
Yes
No
No
Luxembourg
No
No
No
Netherlands
Yes
No
Yes
Norway
No
No
No
Portugal
No
No
No
Sweden
No
No
No
Sources: data adapted from World Resources Institute; ACE Electoral Knowledge Network; The Electoral Systems Website
(http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/index.php
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Electoral and Party System context
o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index)
o ‘Effective-number’ of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index)
Key structural attributes of the polity
o Bicameralism
o Federalism
o Consociationalism
Coalition Agreements
Conflict and conflict management
o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences;
constant-sum and variable-sum games)
o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Table 2. 12 coalition-prone systems by number and content of
coalition agreements, 1945-1999
Country
N
Mean size
Mean %
general
procedural
rules
Mean %
specific
procedural
rules
Mean %
Mean %
Mean %
distribution of distribution of policies
offices
competencies
Austria
14
6,593
18.6
14.1
10.8
8.1
48.2
Belgium
16
14,166
1.3
5.0
0.5
0.6
92.8
Denmark
5
3,619
0
12.4
0
0
87.4
Finland
33
1,163
0
0
0
0
100
France
5
1,976
1
0
0
0
99
Germany
10
5,934
7.4
1.2
0.1
0
91.4
Rep of Ireland
6
10,161
0
0
0
0
100
Italy
1
3,680
38.1
23
0
7.5
31.3
Netherlands
11
14,223
2.9
4.1
0.3
2.4
90.4
Norway
8
12,435
0
0.5
0
0
99.5
Portugal
3
13,746
16.5
4.9
1.5
0
77.1
Sweden
7
2,443
0
2.6
0
0
97.4
Source: Table adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Electoral and Party System context
o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index)
o ‘Effective-number’ of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index)
Key structural attributes of the polity
o Bicameralism
o Federalism
o Consociationalism
Coalition Agreements
Conflict and conflict management
o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences;
constant-sum and variable-sum games)
o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Table 3a. 14 coalition-prone countries by most commonly used
arenas for cabinet conflict
Country
N
Internal
Inner
Cabinet
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Rep of Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
17
28
17
33
17
18
2
10
34
16
23
7
6
7
57
3
Mixed
Cabinet
Coalition
Committe Committee
e
100
43
100
94
100
External
Cabinet +
Parliament Party
Parliamenta ary
Summit
ry
Leaders
Leaders
3
6
50
44
11
50
20
62
50
61
57
43
39
80
38
50
39
43
67
57
Other arenas
33
Notes: Percentages of countries cabinets; Source: adapted from Anderweg and Timmermans, 2008
IN WHAT CONTEXT?
Table 3b. 14 coalition-prone countries by conflict management
areas for most serious cabinet conflicts
Country
N
Internal
Inner
Cabinet
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Rep of Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
17
28
17
33
17
18
2
10
34
16
23
7
6
7
53
21
100
6
Mixed
Cabinet
Coalition
Committe Committee
e
External
Cabinet +
Parliament Party
Parliamenta ary
Summit
ry
Leaders
Leaders
47
11
68
52
42
12
56
62
25
48
86
Other arenas
6
100
100
52
6
39
38
25
14
100
100
Notes: Percentages of countries cabinets; Source: adapted from Anderweg and Timmermans, 2008
37
CONCLUSIONS
Coalition government most common form in Western Europe
since 1945
Varieties of coalition (Minority; Minimal Winning; Surplus Majority)
Context is hugely important
o Electoral and Party Systems
o Key structural attributes of the polity
o Coalition agreements
o Conflict and conflict management
Used with caution, Western European data can illuminate aspects
of UK coalition
Thank you for your attention