Articles “The Calamity of So Long Life”: Life Histories, Contaminants, and Potential Emerging Threats to Long-lived Vertebrates CHRISTOPHER L. ROWE Persistent contaminants are ubiquitous in the environment, often present at concentrations that may jeopardize reproductive fitness only after long periods of exposure. As the duration of exposure is largely regulated by life span, long-lived species of high trophic status, such as many reptiles, birds, and mammals, may be at risk of reduced fitness and population decline. Delayed maturation and iteroparity confer the potential for cumulative effects to be expressed prior to reproduction, and large parental investments in yolk and milk may threaten offspring because of exposure during critical developmental periods. Long generation times may delay emergence of obvious effects on populations, perhaps eluding early intervention, while constraining rates at which populations may recover if conditions subsequently improve. Life history theory thus suggests that the suite of traits that optimized reproductive fitness throughout long-lived species’ evolutionary histories may ultimately put them in peril in the modern, anthropogenically altered environment. Keywords: birds of prey, marine mammals, persistent contaminants, reproductive fitness, reptiles R eproductive fitness, the probability that an individual will produce viable offspring of equal or greater replacement value, provides an avenue by which environmental influences on individuals transcend to population and higher-order phenomena. Life history strategies represent the suite of traits that optimize reproductive fitness of individuals within the environmental and phylogenetic constraints imposed on the species during its evolutionary history. A species’ life history strategy is shaped by trade-offs among alternative, attainable expressions of traits, including (but not limited to) life span; time to maturation; number of lifetime breeding events; and parental investment in offspring number, size or energy content, or care (Stearns 1989, Congdon et al. 2001). The combination of traits and the specific expressions that optimize fitness are unique to a species, yet have classically been broadly categorized as “r-selected” or “K-selected” life history strategies (Pianka 1970). While these categorizations represent theoretical extremes bounding a vast diversity of trait combinations found in nature, and thus no realized life history strategy represents an “ideal” r- or K-selected strategy, the categorizations are conceptually useful for broadly assessing potential environmental influences on fitness resulting from a particular life history strategy. Species that possess r-selected strategies tend to be opportunistic, short-lived, rapid to mature, and semelparous (breeding only once), producing large numbers of small off- www.biosciencemag.org spring. Such species typically exploit rapidly changing environmental conditions and are capable of establishing populations quickly in novel environments (Pianka 1970). Relative to r-selected species, those employing K-selected life history strategies are long-lived, slow to mature, iteroparous (breeding multiple times), and typically make large per capita parental investments in few offspring during a given breeding event (Pianka 1970). This life history strategy is optimized for environmental conditions that on average are relatively stable over an individual’s long reproductive lifetime, yet it is resilient to periodic, stochastic fluctuations in habitat quality that may compromise a given breeding event (a “bet-hedging” strategy; Stearns 1976). Persistent, synthetic contaminants were developed and have been used widely only in the past century, yet already their use has resulted in contamination of habitats on a global scale (e.g., Schwarzenbach et al. 2006). Synthetic compounds such as organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and brominated fire retardants (brominated diphenyl ethers, or BDEs) can persist in the environment for decades, Christopher L. Rowe (e-mail: [email protected]) is an associate professor in the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, in Solomons, Maryland. © 2008 American Institute of Biological Sciences. July/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 • BioScience 623 Articles providing continual exposure to resident organisms for all or substantial portions of their lifetimes. Fortunately, the majority of natural systems harboring contaminants appear to pose little risk of acute mortality or other immediately observable toxic effects to resident species. Most industrial and natural pollutants in the world’s freshwater systems occur at very low concentrations, thousands on the order of only parts per quadrillion (picograms per liter) to parts per trillion (nanograms per liter), which makes it difficult to identify their ultimate effects on ecosystems singly and in mixture (Schwarzenbach et al. 2006). As the toxicological response is typically influenced by the interaction between the concentration of the contaminant and the duration to which an individual is exposed, long periods of exposure and cumulative or repeated damage to biological systems may ultimately result in expression of toxicological effects that would not otherwise occur under a shorter exposure regime. Life history strategy, by defining the natural life span of individuals and hence the duration with which they interact with persistent compounds, can be a critical factor influencing the probability that effects of low concentrations of contaminants may manifest. Furthermore, physiological and reproductive traits such as per capita female investment in offspring influence the probability that compounds such as lipophilic (fat soluble) contaminants (e.g., PCBs, BDEs, and some pesticides) are transferred to developing offspring, thereby compromising embryonic or juvenile health or viability. In this article I propose that life history traits unique to longlived vertebrates, as well as ecological and physiological traits that are frequently associated with this life history strategy, may place them in jeopardy of reduced reproductive fitness and population stability in habitats contaminated with persistent synthetic compounds as they occur in the modern environment. Long life span and delayed maturation in these species can result in chronic accumulation and expression of the effects of contaminants before individuals achieve reproductive status. Combined with long life spans, the high trophic status of many long-lived vertebrates subjects them to high concentrations of contaminants having biomagnified in prey items. Upon maturation, large per capita investment of materials and energy in offspring confers these species with the propensity to transfer effective concentrations of biologically labile contaminants to offspring during critical developmental stages. However, despite the numerous ways in which individuals can be affected, ultimate changes to population dynamics of long-lived species may be extremely slow to appear because of characteristically long cohort turnover times. Emerging at an insidiously slow rate, populations may deteriorate on a temporal scale that delays recognition and responsive initiation of protective measures before severe changes to demographics manifest. Furthermore, long turnover times and concomitantly slow population growth rates constrain the rate at which impacted populations can recover to prior levels if conditions substantially improve. Long-lived species are also likely to experience inertia against rapid genetic adaptation to environmental contaminants, 624 BioScience • July/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 particularly modern synthetic compounds that have been present for a relatively short period of time on an evolutionary scale and hence have exerted selective forces over very few successive generations (if at all). Thus, numerous traits of longlived species that were optimized within the constraints imposed by phylogeny and abiotic and biotic environmental conditions during these species’ evolutionary histories may ultimately prove detrimental in modern, chemically altered environments. The discussion that follows is largely theoretical and directed specifically at assessing contaminant effects on reproductive fitness and population resiliency of species possessing a longlived, K-selected life history strategy. I avoid making direct comparisons with other life history types (short-lived or r-selected) because empirical comparisons among species possessing disparate life history strategies are inherently confounded by physiological (e.g., capacity for metabolism of contaminants or clearance from the body; Chappell 1992, Kannan et al. 2004) and autecological (trophic position) differences, and interactions among duration of exposure (astronomical time) and age or ontogenetic status of the individuals (physiological time). For example, an experiment comparing the effects of a controlled exposure duration (1 year, for instance) on species possessing different natural life spans (1 and 10 years, for instance) would be confounded by the fact that the short-lived species experiences a full lifetime of exposure, whereas the long-lived species is exposed for only one-tenth of its lifetime. Although my discussion is therefore largely grounded in life history theory (a useful tool for assessing potential environmental influences on fitness; e.g., Calow et al. 1997, Congdon et al. 2001), it must be noted that invoking theory requires that assumptions be made, many of which cannot be rigorously tested empirically. Life history and exposure regimes To examine the influence of a life history strategy on responses of individuals and populations to environmental contaminants, temporal (life span, time to maturation), autecological (e.g., trophic position), and physiological (e.g., per capita investment in offspring) phenomena must be considered (Calow et al. 1997, Congdon et al. 2001, Stark et al. 2004). Temporal and ecological features of a life history strategy govern the duration of contaminant exposure, accumulation potential, and the probability that exposure is sufficient to initiate a response. Physiological traits, while also playing a role in accumulation potential (e.g., Kelly et al. 2007), govern the types of effects that may be manifest and the severity of those effects. Before eliciting a toxicological response, a threshold concentration of a compound (target site concentration; Escher and Hermens 2002) must be present at a specific biological site of action (a membrane or cellular receptor, for example). The concentration-effect threshold is a unique function of the type of contaminant(s) to which an individual is exposed and the duration of exposure. In toxicological parlance, in which an ET50 is defined as the duration of exposure resulting in a www.biosciencemag.org Articles specified effect in 50% of the test population, a low concentration of a contaminant will typically have a greater ET50 than a higher concentration. The occurrence of a large number of contaminants in the global environment at concentrations that are unlikely to induce acute, lethal responses (e.g., Schwarzenbach et al. 2006) therefore suggests that, depending on the inherent toxicity and modes of action of the contaminants in question, considerably long periods of exposure may be required before substantial effects result. With the exception of transient or migratory species, the length of time that an individual interacts with contaminants in a given habitat will be largely determined by its natural life span. Long-lived species of high trophic status (such as some turtles, crocodilians, birds of prey, and marine mammals) subject to contaminants having accumulated or trophically magnified in their prey are most likely to establish high body burdens of persistent, bioaccumulative contaminants (particularly lipophilic compounds). In addition to trophic position, biomagnification models suggest that respiratory physiology in these taxa confers on them a reduced capacity to eliminate some moderately lipid-soluble compounds through aerial respiratory pathways, and thus a greater propensity for bioaccumulation relative to organisms possessing aquatic respiration (Kelly et al. 2007). For example, the models presented by Kelly and colleagues (2007) demonstrated biomagnification factors (BMFs; the ratio of lipid normalized concentration in predator to prey) for endosulfan (an organochlorine pesticide) to be less than 1 for predatory fish (e.g., no magnification), whereas for reptiles, sea birds, and marine mammals, BMFs were 4.9, 10, and 22 (e.g., magnification up to 22 times from prey to predator), respectively. Contaminant accumulation is also strongly influenced by metabolic physiology, which regulates clearance rates of the compounds from the body (Chappell 1992) and biotransformation of parent compounds to sometimes more toxic metabolites (Kannan et al. 2004). Life span and adult body size are often (but by no means universally) positively correlated, whereas basal metabolism (metabolic rate per unit body mass) tends to scale as an inverse allometric function with body size (West et al. 2002). Thus, the metabolic rate of larger animals is typically lower than that of smaller animals possessing similar metabolic physiology (e.g., ecototherms or endotherms). As a result, metabolism-dependent clearance of accumulated compounds is relatively slow (and half lives of accumulated contaminants are relatively long) for largebodied animals (Chappell 1992). The relatively low metabolic rate associated with those long-lived animals that also attain a large body size may extend the period that contaminants reside in the body and have the potential to bring about toxic insult (Chappell 1992) or to be transferred to offspring later in life. On the other hand, high metabolic rates in small species (or in juveniles, which tend to have higher metabolic rates than adults; Glazier 2005) can lead to rapid biotransformation of parent compounds to toxic metabolites (Kannan et al. 2004), www.biosciencemag.org elevating concentrations of circulating toxic compounds while reducing storage of the parent compounds. Thus the influences of metabolic physiology on bioaccumulation are complex and vary considerably as a result of interactions among body size and life span (not to mention extrinsic factors such as temperature; Glazier 2005), themselves not necessarily being similarly related among taxa or life history strategies (Speakman 2005). Because long-lived vertebrates may attain large (e.g., whales) or relatively small (e.g., many birds and snakes) maximum or asymptotic size, there is likely to be considerable variation in patterns of accumulation and metabolism of contaminants among species that share life history traits. Protracted exposure to persistent contaminants may therefore have various implications, depending on the kinetics of storage and metabolism, which may vary with body size or ontogeny. Production of toxic metabolites may lead to continual delivery of toxic compounds to active sites, whereas long-term storage of accumulated parent compounds may lead to latent effects for the individual or its offspring during subsequent remobilization (and metabolism) of stores during times of fasting (Debier et al. 2006) or reproduction. Physiological and reproductive traits and risks of contaminant effects on fitness Contaminant exposure itself does not ensure that a response sufficient to compromise reproductive fitness will necessarily occur. Any number of biochemical, cellular, and subtle physiological effects may follow contaminant exposure, yet in lieu of being expressed in such a way that fitness itself is reduced or negated, higher-order effects on populations are unlikely (e.g., Forbes et al. 2006). Reproductive fitness of individuals is a vector through which toxic responses transcend the individual and may ultimately bring higher-order, population-level change, however. Doubtlessly mortality before attaining the natural life span can reduce fitness by restricting the total number of lifetime reproductive opportunities. Moreover, when concentrations of contaminants are insufficient to cause mortality even after long periods of exposure, it is more likely that effects will be expressed sublethally, potentially affecting fitness through more subtle mechanisms. Combined with extended exposure to persistent contaminants, reproductive traits unique to long-lived species may place them in double jeopardy for reduced fitness in contaminated habitats. Table 1 presents reproductive traits typical of many long-lived species in the context of how those species may be compromised by chronic exposure to contaminants. Some of the mechanisms by which contaminants may operate to reduce fitness are largely theoretical because of the dearth of long-term data sets that would be required to address them empirically (table 1; e.g., Henriksen et al. 2001). In particular, the effects of contaminants on growth rates (size at maturation) and adult mortality schedules in natural populations are poorly understood for most long-lived species, as establishing such relationships requires long-term popuJuly/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 • BioScience 625 Articles Table 1. Reproductive life history traits associated with long-lived animals and associated potential effects on fitness and population dynamics as a result of chronic contaminant exposure. Trait Contaminant effects that suboptimize strategy Large per capita parental investment in offspring Delayed maturation Maternal transfer of high concentrations of contaminants to offspring Mortality before reproduction Chronic accumulation of contaminants that may be transferred to offspring upon maturation Reduced size at maturity reducing offspring quantity or quality Mortality before achieving total potential life long reproductive events Chronic exposure of offspring to female-derived contaminants (yolk, placenta, milk) Delayed expression of fitness effects at the population level Delayed recovery of populations following abatement of fitness effects Iteroparity Long embryonic/preparturition/preweaning period Long cohort turnover time lation surveys which have generally been prohibitive (Gibbons 1987, Gibbons et al. 2000, Henriksen et al. 2001). On the other hand, the relationship between per capita parental investment in offspring and exposure of offspring to maternally derived contaminants is more amenable to study and has received considerably more empirical treatment. Long-lived species typically make large per capita investments in few offspring in the form of parental investment in the embryo (PIE, the direct contributions of energy in support of embryonic development) and parental investment in care (PIC, direct provisions of energy to the offspring for use after hatching/parturition and energy expenditures by parents in rearing a brood; Congdon 1989). Vitellogenesis—yolk provisioning (figure 1)—or lactation provides a conduit through which lipid-soluble compounds accumulated by the female before reproduction or from her proximate diet can be transferred to offspring (Braune et al. 2001, Skaare et al. 2002, Rauschenberger et al. 2004, Hickie et al. 2007). Offspring are thus exposed to contaminants before their direct interaction with contaminants in the environment itself. An additional consequence of large investments in offspring (both PIE and PIC) is a relatively long embryonic or neonatal period during which offspring are sustained by yolk or milk, and so have extended exposure to maternally derived contaminants during critical developmental periods. Thus, an additional temporal aspect of the life history of long-lived species—a relatively long embryonic or preparturition period—may impart susceptibility to contaminants via long periods of exposure to developing offspring (figure 2). Maternal transfer of contaminants to offspring has been well documented in long-lived species, including mammals (Aguilar and Borrell 1994, Henriksen et al. 2001, Skaare et al. 2002, Beckmen et al. 2003, Lie et al. 2003, Schecter et al. 2003, Hickie et al. 2007), birds (Dirksen et al. 1995, Ewins et al. 1999, Hebert et al. 2000, Norstrom et al. 2002), and reptiles (Bishop et al. 1994, Rauschenberger et al. 2004). Transfer of metals (such as selenium and mercury) has been observed in some species (e.g., Roe et al. 2004), but most attention has focused on persistent synthetic compounds, particularly halogenated compounds such as PCBs and some pesticides. These compounds have received intensive study because their lipophilic properties provide a route of transfer from a female’s stored lipids or proximate diet to offspring through yolk or milk, they 626 BioScience • July/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 Figure 1. Transfer of lipid soluble contaminants to yolk during vitellogenesis. Contaminants present in the female’s body fat or proximate diet are transported to the oocyte via a yolk precursor complex mediated by the transport protein vitellogenin. Figure 2. Interactions among several life history traits characteristic of long-lived species that may constrain reproductive fitness potential in persistently contaminated environments. Arrows represent routes through which contaminants may operate to influence fitness. www.biosciencemag.org Articles have a propensity to accumulate to high concentrations in prey items and in female tissues prior to reproduction, and their use and release into the global environment is long-standing, ongoing, and intensive. The patterns in which contaminants are passed to offspring over a female’s lifetime will influence the relative exposure of successive cohorts to maternally derived contaminants. In some species (for example, some pinnipeds, cetaceans, and ursines), a long period of accumulation of contaminants by females before maturity results in very high contributions to offspring during the first few breeding seasons, whereas transfer of contaminants declines in later breeding events (Aguilar and Borrell 1994, Ylitalo et al. 2001, Beckmen et al. 2003, Hickie et al. 2007). Contaminant body burdens in females subsequently decline with age after maturation because of depuration of accumulated contaminants over successive breeding events, whereas in males, the burdens increase continually (Aguilar and Borrell 1994, Ylitalo et al. 2001). These species therefore experience the greatest risks of offspring impairment during a female’s first several breeding seasons, with risks declining as the females age. In other cases, researchers observed either no relationship between female age and contribution to offspring (Bishop et al. 1994, Ewins et al. 1999) or an increase in the contribution as the female ages and her body burdens increased (Rauschenberger et al. 2004). Risks to offspring health and fitness in these species will thus remain relatively constant or will increase throughout the lifetime of the female. Patterns in transfer of contaminants reflect their maternal source, either from somatic stores or from circulating contaminants derived from the female’s diet during vitellogenesis or lactation (“capital” versus “income” reproductive investments, respectively; e.g., Meijer and Drent 1999). Within taxa, contributions of energy (and thus lipophilic contaminants) from female somatic stores or from her proximate diet vary widely; among species of birds, for example, 0% to 100% of energetic investment in offspring may be derived from female stores (Meijer and Drent 1999). An observed lack of a relationship between female age (and presumably her stored contaminant burden) and contribution of contaminants to offspring in some birds and turtles suggests that in these species or habitats, contaminants present in the female’s diet are a primary source (e.g., Bishop et al. 1994, Ewins et al. 1999). However, in other species, dietary contaminants are substantially supplemented with those from somatic stores, to the extent that dietary contaminants may be essentially inconsequential (e.g., some sea mammals and crocodilians; Aguilar and Borrell 1994, Beckmen et al. 2003, Rauschenberger et al. 2004). Regardless of the proximate source of contaminants, their delivery to offspring as a result of large per capita maternal investment of energy and materials ultimately may compromise reproductive success. There are numerous documented cases of offspring health or fitness being compromised through maternal transfer of contaminants. Reptiles, particularly turtles and crocodilians, have received considerable study because of their typically very www.biosciencemag.org long life spans (and thus potential risks of chronic exposure and effect) and concerns about globally declining reptile populations attributable in part to habitat contamination (Gibbons et al. 2000). Much research has examined maternal transfer of organic contaminants and effects on offspring health in turtles inhabiting the Great Lakes of North America. In regions of the Great Lakes where contaminants persist at relatively high concentrations, snapping turtles experienced reduced hatching success attributable to in ovo exposure to maternally derived contaminants (Bishop et al. 1998). In some instances, successfully hatched individuals displayed numerous abnormalities that may influence survival probability or future reproductive performance, including less pronounced sexual dimorphism, dwarfism, and missing or malformed eyes and legs (e.g., Bishop et al. 1991, 1998, de Solla et al. 1998). A number of recent studies of alligators residing in contaminated water bodies in Florida have demonstrated strong relationships between chronic exposure of adults to contaminants and reduced offspring health and fitness. Adults that had been exposed to synthetic compounds over a lifetime of feeding in contaminated areas experienced endocrinological abnormalities (Guillette et al. 1994) and reduced clutch success (Rauschenberger et al. 2007). Offspring that succeeded in hatching frequently experienced retarded development and growth and reduced reproductive potential (Guillette et al. 1994, 1995, 1999, Gunderson et al. 2004, Milnes et al. 2005). Such overall reductions in reproductive fitness because of chronic contaminant exposure may explain the declines in alligator populations in the contaminated systems, in stark contrast to the general growth in alligator populations in many other areas (Guillette et al. 1994, Semenza et al. 1997). Birds of prey have also received considerable study with respect to the effects of persistent contaminants, particularly pesticides (DDT for example), following precipitous declines in populations of some species in the mid-20th century (Hickey and Anderson 1968). Whereas the familiar phenomenon of eggshell thinning and subsequent reproductive failure (Hickey and Anderson 1968) was generally attributed to dysfunction of the eggshell gland in mature females, subsequent mortality or reduced performance of many of those individuals that did not succumb to eggshell thinning suggests that toxicity of maternally derived contaminants was an additional mechanism by which reproductive success was reduced (Dirksen et al. 1995, Fry 1995). Effects on offspring ranged from embryonic and juvenile mortality to morphological malformations that may hinder feeding (Fox et al. 1991, Tillitt et al. 1992). Although in some areas reproductive effects associated with contaminants such as DDT and PCBs declined after the imposition of restrictions on the use of these compounds (Grier 1982), persistent effects for one or more decades after cessation of the compounds’ release have been reported (Fox et al. 1991, Tillitt et al. 1992, Toschik et al. 2005). Recent reports suggest that persistent contaminants continue to threaten some birds of prey even in areas in July/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 • BioScience 627 Articles which individuals are not restricted to highly contaminated systems; long-lived fish-eating birds such as albatross, which have large hunting ranges and thus are not restricted to local hot spots of contamination, have been found to possess tissue burdens of contaminants that may be toxic to their offspring (Guruge et al. 2001, Tanabe et al. 2004). Much recent work has also examined relationships among female body burdens, maternal transfer, and offspring health in carnivorous mammals—particularly pinnipeds, cetaceans, and ursines in the high northern latitudes. Long-distance atmospheric transport, biomagnification, and localized sources have resulted in extremely high body burdens of persistent contaminants in some areas (Muir et al. 1999, Andersen et al. 2001, Skaare et al. 2002, Lie et al. 2003). For some midmolecular weight compounds, Kelly and colleagues (2007) estimated that biomagnification factors for marine mammals can exceed those for both reptiles and sea birds, in some cases by an order of magnitude. Recent studies suggest that body burdens of persistent, synthetic contaminants in polar bears and killer whales in some areas exceed thresholds beyond which toxicological effects would be expected (Muir et al. 1999, Ross 2006). Indeed, polar bears that accumulated relatively high concentrations of synthetic compounds have been found to express sublethal anomalies in developmental, immunological, and endocrinological traits (Skaare et al. 2002, Oskam et al. 2003, Lie et al. 2004). High body burdens in females result in transfer of high concentrations of contaminants to offspring through lactation (e.g., Muir et al. 1999, Henriksen et al. 2001, Neale et al. 2005, Lie et al. 2003). In some cases, females may transfer contaminant loads sufficient to impair offspring health or survival (Skaare et al. 2002). Such effects on reproductive success have been linked, albeit inconclusively, to demographic anomalies in polar bear populations in which the frequency of females older than 16 years having cubs less than one year old was substantially reduced in a population in which body burdens were high relative to other populations (Derocher et al. 2003). Although much of the preceding discussion focused on contaminant effects on offspring production or health, for which most data exist, it is important to recognize that population dynamics of long-lived species are typically more sensitive to survival or performance of adults relative to earlier life stages (Crouse et al. 1987, Congdon et al. 1994). The iteroparous, bet-hedging reproductive strategy characteristic of long-lived species provides opportunities to compensate for periodic reproductive failures through multiple breeding attempts during a lifetime. Thus contaminant effects on offspring production or performance, if occurring only occasionally, would be expected to have little effect on population dynamics. However, while the life history strategy is resilient to periodic environmental fluctuations and failed breeding attempts, it is tightly constrained by chronic disturbances such that a sustained reduction in offspring survival potential across an individual’s lifetime may negate the advantages of this strategy (Congdon et al. 1994). In the case of many modern contaminants that are extremely persistent and cycle through food 628 BioScience • July/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 webs for very long periods of time, exposure and risks are likely to be sustained, perhaps over the entire lifetime of an individual. Thus, despite the relatively greater influence of adult survival on population dynamics under conditions in which recruitment failure is periodic and stochastic, the persistent effects of contaminants on reproductive success over much or all of the life span of individuals may ultimately lead to reduced population sizes. Temporal inertia The protracted generation turnover times characteristic of long-lived species delay any cohort’s influence on population dynamics (e.g., through recruitment to the adult population) for a considerable time after the cohort is produced. For example, Congdon and colleagues (1993, 1994) reported cohort generation times in populations of snapping turtles and Blanding’s turtles of 25 and 37 years, respectively. Such long turnover times may provide long-lived species with “temporal inertia” with respect to expression as population-level change. Under extreme conditions in which recruitment failure of entire cohorts occurs, it may take decades for the effects to be realized as substantial changes in the abundance of reproductive adults. Moreover, under more typical situations in which contaminant exposure is less severe and recruitment to the adult population is only moderately reduced rather than negated, latent population-level changes will be much slower to emerge. Thus, the observable effects of contaminants on populations resulting from reduced reproductive success may emerge very subtly in a human frame of reference, perhaps at a temporal scale that exceeds our ability to recognize the changes as distinct from natural, stochastic population fluctuations (e.g., Pechmann et al. 1991, Gibbons et al. 2000). As a result, contaminant-induced population declines may not be recognized until considerable impacts have already occurred. This phenomenon is in many ways analogous to the “shifting baseline syndrome” (Pauly 1995), which has been attributed to the erosion of commercial fisheries and of other marine resources over the past century through gradually increasing exploitation and degradation of habitat quality (Jackson 2001). Long generation times limit not only the rate at which contaminant effects will be expressed as population-level change but also the rate at which populations may subsequently recover if conditions improve or if further degradation is to be prevented. For example, in the turtle populations studied by Congdon and colleagues (1993, 1994), with cohort generation times of 25 to 37 years, the cessation of contaminant effects on reproductive success would not be predicted to be expressed at the population level for at least three to four decades, when recruitment of the first postcontaminantaffected cohorts would have occurred. Crowder and colleagues (1994) predicted such delays in population recovery using demographic models to assess sea turtle population dynamics. They projected future population trends in response to regulatory actions requiring the use of turtle-excluding devices on fishing trawls to reduce incidental mortality, a priwww.biosciencemag.org Articles mary cause of some declines in sea turtle populations. Even with the adoption of such devices and enforcement in their use, the authors projected that more than 70 years would be required for the population to increase by a single order of magnitude. However, in this scenario (Crowder et al. 1994), use of the exclusion devices, and removal thereby of the primary agent responsible for population declines, was assumed to be immediate and sustained. Yet in habitats contaminated with persistent compounds, a legacy of prior inputs remains as the contaminants continue to cycle through food webs, and thus abatement of inputs is unlikely to produce an immediate improvement in conditions and rapid rebound in population growth rate. For example, despite bans on the use of DDT in North America and parts of Europe more than 30 years ago, DDT and its metabolites continue to persist in environmental matrices and wildlife (Simonich and Hites 1995, Harris et al. 2000). Although reproductive success of some species that were adversely affected by DDT has improved considerably since its use has been restricted (Grier 1982), recovery of the populations has sometimes been very slow. Demographic models of peregrine falcon populations in California, for example, revealed that despite 15 years of reintroduction efforts, population growth rates remained negative until approximately 18 years following the ban on DDT (Kauffman et al. 2003). An additional impediment to the recovery of affected populations of long-lived species is the relatively slow rate at which adaptation to contaminants may occur. As genetic adaptation requires successive generations experiencing selective pressures, long turnover times may constrain the rate of evolution of tolerance, unless conditions are exceptionally severe and drastic reductions in population favor only the most tolerant individuals. Furthermore, the occurrence of persistent, synthetic contaminants in the environment for only the past century suggests that relatively few turnovers of generations have occurred for some long-lived species since the advent and widespread use of these compounds; it is thus unlikely that significant adaptation has occurred for many of these species. Delayed manifestation of contaminant effects on populations, combined with a slow rate of subsequent recovery and limited potential for rapid adaptation to contaminant stresses, suggests that long-lived species may decline initially at a nearly imperceptible rate. Once this inertia is overcome and a significant portion of the populations experience reduced reproductive fitness, however, population effects may be dramatic and long lasting. Although some bird populations have recovered or appear to be recovering in some areas after restrictions on contaminants were imposed (Grier 1982), these successes cannot necessarily be viewed as evidence that contaminants’ threats to long-lived species in general have been eliminated. Even in regions with restrictions on the release of contaminants that may compromise reproductive fitness (PCBs and DDT, for example), long-distance transport and a legacy of prior release of the contaminants to the environwww.biosciencemag.org ment present ongoing threats, as evidenced in the last decade by observations of compromised individual health and fitness (e.g., Bishop et al. 1998, de Solla et al. 1998, Guillette et al. 1999, Skaare et al. 2002, Derocher 2003, Milnes et al. 2005). Summary Globally, inputs of persistent contaminants to the environment continue to increase, whether they be synthetic compounds that are known to affect wildlife, newly developed compounds for agricultural and industrial use, or other persistent contaminants such as metals. Past experiences with “firstgeneration” synthetic compounds such as DDT demonstrate contaminants’ potential to affect long-lived species through subtle physiological mechanisms and reduced reproductive fitness, in some cases leading to drastic and long-lasting population declines. Despite the current state of knowledge, these compounds continue to be released in regions in which they remain unrestricted. In developing regions in which agriculture is a primary economic resource, or insecttransmitted diseases pose serious threats to human health, compounds such as organochlorine pesticides remain in use or have been restricted in use only recently (e.g., Weissmann 2006). Furthermore, continued development and worldwide use and release of other synthetic compounds that are persistent and potentially toxic as well (for example, BDEs and fluorinated organic compounds) suggest that threats to the fitness and population status of long-lived species in much of the world may be ongoing or perhaps may not have yet appeared. Life history strategies characterized by long life spans, delayed maturation, large per capita maternal investments in offspring, and long cohort turnover times may be suboptimal in habitats contaminated with persistent synthetic compounds. Long life spans confer protracted exposure periods and a propensity to accumulate high concentrations of many contaminants, particularly in species of high trophic status that are subject to biomagnification through the food web. Establishment of high body burdens prior to reproduction and subsequent maternal transfer of contaminants to embryos and juveniles through yolk or milk can jeopardize offspring survival or performance. Manifesting at a temporal scale that is inconsistent with that of human perception, insidiously slow changes in population size or structure may elude recognition and delay actions to mitigate further population reductions. Furthermore, in the event that environmental quality significantly improves, populations that have been compromised may be exceptionally slow to recover. Thus the “calamity of so long life” (sensu Hamlet, William Shakespeare, ca. 1600): a life history strategy for which a long life span was optimal for attaining reproductive fitness within historical environmental conditions may prove deleterious in modern, contaminated habitats in which toxicological responses are elicited only after long periods of exposure. Predictions from life history theory, combined with documented reductions in reproductive fitness in contaminated habitats, historical and ongoing declines of some species, July/August 2008 / Vol. 58 No. 7 • BioScience 629 Articles and increasing releases of contaminants worldwide, suggest that concern for the current and future status of long-lived species is warranted. Acknowledgments This manuscript benefited from suggestions by Karen Eisenreich, David Kidwell, Teresa A. Manyin, and Carys Mitchelmore. Criticism by four anonymous reviewers substantially improved the manuscript. The Gene Lane Endowment graciously provided support during the preparation of the manuscript. This article is dedicated to the memory of David L. Rowe, who was not long-lived enough. References cited Aguilar A, Borrell A. 1994. Reproductive transfer and variation of body load of organochlorine pollutants with age in fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). 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