http://www.worldbank.org/commodities
A World Bank
Quarterly Report
October 2016
Commodity
Markets
Outlook
OPEC in Historical Context
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
A World Bank
Quarterly Report
OCTOBER 2016
Commodity
Markets
Outlook
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Contents
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Special Focus: OPEC in historical context: Commodity agreements and market fundamentals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Commodity Market Developments and Outlook
Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Fertilizers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Metals and minerals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Precious metals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Appendix A: Historical commodity prices and price forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Appendix B: Supply-Demand balances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Appendix C: Description of price series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Figures
1
Commodity price indexes, monthly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2
OPEC production, 2010 and 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
F1
OPEC oil production and quotas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
F2
OPEC production, 2010 and 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
F3
World oil production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
F4
OPEC oil production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
F5
Commodity price indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
F6
Crude oil supply growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
F7
Non-OPEC oil supply growth 2005-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
F8
U.S. rotary rigs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
F9
U.S. crude oil production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
F10
Oil prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3
Crude oil prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4
World oil demand growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
5
U.S. crude oil production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
6
U.S. oil rig count and oil prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
7
OPEC crude oil production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
8
OECD crude oil stocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
9
Coal consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
10
Coal and natural gas prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
11
Agriculture price indexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
12
Commodity price indexes, change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
13
Global grain supply growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
14
Global production of key edible oils. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
15
Stock-to-use ratio estimates for maize, wheat and rice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
16
Global biofuels production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
17
Coffee prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
18
Cotton and natural rubber prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
19
Fertilizer prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
20
Global nutrient consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
21
Metal and mineral prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
22
World refined metal consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
23
World metal consumption growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
24
Zinc price and LME stocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
25
Precious metal prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
26
Global silver production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Table
1
Nominal price indexes (actual and forecasts) and forecast revisions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
COMMOD I T Y M A R KETS O U TLOOK | o c t o b e r 2 0 1 6
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments
This World Bank Group Report is a product of the Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice
Presidency. The report was managed by John Baffes under the general guidance of Ayhan Kose and
Franziska Ohnsorge.
Many people contributed to the report. John Baffes
and Shane Streifel authored the Special Focus on
OPEC’s decision to limit oil output. Shane Streifel
authored the sections on energy, fertilizers, metals,
and precious metals. John Baffes authored the section
on agriculture. Xinghao Gong managed the report’s
database. The design and production of the report was
managed by Maria Hazel Macadangdang and Adriana
Maximiliano. Carlos Arteta, Mark Felsenthal, Jongrim
Ha, Raju Huidrom, Ergys Islamaj, Temel Taskin, and
Dana Vorisek provided editorial comments. David
Rosenblatt reviewed the report. Mark Felsenthal and
Mikael Reventar managed the media relations and
dissemination. The accompanying website was
produced by Graeme Littler.
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook is
published quarterly, in January, April, July, and
October. The report provides detailed market analysis
for major commodity groups, including energy,
agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. A
Special Focus section examines current topics and
issues in commodity markets. Price forecasts to 2025
for 46 commodities are presented, together with
historical price data. The report also contains
production, consumption, and trade statistics for
major commodities. Commodity price data updates
are published separately at the beginning of each
month.
The report and data can be accessed at:
www.worldbank.org/commodities
For inquiries and correspondence, email at:
[email protected]
v
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY
Executive Summary
Most commodity prices continued to rise in the third quarter from their lows in early 2016. Crude oil prices are forecast
to rise to $55 per barrel in 2017 from an average of $43/bbl this year as the market continues to rebalance and OPEC
is likely to limit output. Metals prices are projected to rise more sharply in 2017 than forecast in July, as a result of
faster-than-expected mine closures. Agricultural commodities prices are anticipated to rise slightly in 2017 after a
minimal decline this year but with wide variations in the outlook for different commodities depending on supply conditions. This issue of the Commodity Markets Outlook analyzes OPEC’s recent decision to limit output by examining
earlier commodity agreements and assessing the implications of changing market forces over the past decades. It concludes that commodity agreements have limited ability to influence global prices over extended periods of time and
eventually collapse, often with unintended consequences. The ability of OPEC, the only surviving commodity organization seeking to influence markets, will be tested in the presence of unconventional oil suppliers, notably the U.S. shale
oil industry.
Trends. Energy prices rose more than 3 percent in the
third quarter of 2016 from the second quarter (Figure
1). Coal prices surged 30 percent, reflecting strong
import demand and tightening supply in China following restrictions on production aimed at reducing
pollution. U.S. natural gas prices jumped more than
33 percent due to strong demand for air conditioning,
falling production, lower injections into storage, and
increased exports to Mexico and to South America
during the southern hemisphere winter.
Crude oil prices were slightly lower in the quarter, averaging $44.7/bbl, as supply returned to the market,
notably in Canada, after wildfires in the spring.
OPEC production edged up, with most of the gains
coming from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Oil prices
jumped in late September, when OPEC members announced a plan to limit oil output. The details of this
agreement are expected to be finalized at the group’s
meeting in November. The Islamic Republic of Iran,
Libya and, Nigeria are likely to be excluded from the
agreement (Figure 2).
1
Commodity price indexes, monthly
Outlook and risks. All main commodity price indexes
are projected to decline in 2016 from the previous
year, with the exception of food and precious metals,
reflecting well-supplied markets (Table 1). The declines for most indexes are smaller than expected in
2
mb/d
50
US$, 2010=100
150
130
OPEC production, 2010 and 2016
Saudi Arabia
Iran, Libya, Nigeria
Other Gulf
Other non Gulf
40
110
Agriculture
90
Metals
70
50
30
Jan-11
The Non-Energy Commodity Price Index rose marginally in the third quarter with large variations across
individual commodities, mostly because of supply
conditions. Metals prices increased 4 percent from the
second quarter due to mine closures in a number of
countries and production cuts. Precious metals prices
jumped 8 percent in the third quarter due to strong
investment demand following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s delay of an expected interest rate increase, although the trend has reversed on heightened expectations of a rate rise in December. The Beverage Price
Index rose 4 percent, led by a 10 percent increase in
coffee prices as a result of drought-related crop losses.
Grains prices declined 8 percent following wheat and
maize price drops of 15 percent and 10 percent, respectively, attributable to record crops.
Energy
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-15
Jan-16
30
20
10
0
Sep-10
Sep-16
Source: International Energy Agency.
Notes: Other Gulf is Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. Other non Gulf is
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, República Bolivariana de Venezuela.
1
2
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | O cto b er 2 0 1 6
the July, with some exceptions. Prices for most commodities are expected to rise in 2017. Energy prices
are forecast to increase 24 percent in 2017 after dropping 15 percent this year.
the United States and wheat in Australia and Central
Asia. Upside risks to the agricultural price forecasts
include worsening weather conditions in South
America and East Asia and a larger-than-expected increase in energy prices, a key cost component. Risks of
disruptions from the La Niña weather pattern are limited. Downside price risks include the possibility of
increased agricultural subsidies, which would encourage greater supplies as well as diminished diversion of
food commodities to the production of biofuels.
Oil prices are expected to average $55/bbl, next year,
higher than the $53/bbl forecast in July, reflecting
OPEC’s intention to limit output. Upside risks to the
oil price forecast include further supply disruptions
among key producers and stronger-than-expected
OPEC production cuts. In contrast, greater-than-expected oil output and further weakening in EMDE
economic growth could lower prices.
Special Focus on OPEC production in the context of
commodity agreements and market fundamentals. On
September 28, OPEC agreed to limit crude oil output
to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day, effectively ending two years of unrestrained production. This marked
an important policy shift, especially for Saudi Arabia,
the organization’s largest producer. The details of the
new plan are to be worked out and announced at the
group’s meeting on November 30. The Islamic Republic of Iran, Libya, and Nigeria, all OPEC members, are likely to be exempted from the production
limits because of earlier production losses. The plan, if
implemented, would be the first production cut since
2008. OPEC is also preparing a framework for consultations with non-OPEC producers including the
Russian Federation. The Focus section concludes that
commodity agreements have limited ability to influence the market and eventually collapse, often with
unintended consequences. In the case of OPEC, the
only surviving commodity organization seeking to influence markets, guiding global oil prices will be challenging in the presence of unconventional oil producers, notably the U.S. shale oil industry.
Non-energy commodity prices are expected to rise 2
percent in 2017 after a 3 percent drop the previous
year. Metals prices are forecast to rise 4 percent in
2017 after a 9 percent slide in 2016. Zinc, lead, and
tin prices are projected to increase due to tightening
supplies. Downside price risks for metals include a
further slowdown of growth in China and higherthan-expected production, while upside risks relate to
government-directed supply restraint in Asia and reluctance by producers to activate idle capacity as demand picks up. Precious metals prices are projected to
decline in 2017 as benchmark interest rates rise and
safe-haven buying ebbs.
Although, on average, the Agricultural Price Index is
expected to remain broadly stable in 2017, the outlooks for its components vary depending on supply
conditions. A small increase of 1.5 percent in the
Food Price Index largely reflects an anticipated 2.9
percent rebound in grains prices. This is expected to
be a correction from the price decline in 2016 that
resulted from larger-than-expected crops of maize in
TABLE 1 Nominal price indexes (actual and forecasts) and forecast revisions
Change (%)
Price Indexes (2010=100)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
Energy
128
127
118
65
55
68
-15.1
24.0
0.8
2.0
Non-Energy3
110
102
97
82
80
82
-3.1
2.1
0.8
0.8
Agriculture
114
106
103
89
89
91
-0.1
1.4
0.6
0.5
Beverages
Food
2017f1
Revision2
2016f1
2015-16 2016-17
93
83
102
94
92
91
-2.0
-0.6
2.0
1.8
124
116
107
91
92
94
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.1
Oils and meals
126
116
109
85
89
91
4.9
2.0
1.8
1.6
Grains
141
128
104
89
83
85
-6.7
2.9
-2.7
-2.5
Other food
107
104
108
100
105
105
4.9
-0.2
3.9
3.5
Raw Materials
101
95
92
83
80
82
-3.7
2.6
-1.7
-1.5
138
114
100
95
78
80
-18.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
96
91
85
67
61
63
-9.1
4.1
1.2
1.6
138
115
101
91
97
95
7.5
-2.0
0.0
0.0
Fertilizers
Metals and Minerals
Precious Metals3
Memorandum items
Crude oil ($/bbl)
Gold ($/toz)
105
104
96
51
43
55
-14.6
27.5
0.3
2.0
1,670
1,411
1,266
1,161
1,250
1,219
7.7
-2.4
0.0
0.0
Source: World Bank.
Notes: (1) "f" denotes forecasts. (2) Denotes revision to the forecasts from the April 2016 report (expressed as change in index value except $/bbl for crude oil, and $/toz
for gold). (3) The non-energy price index excludes precious metals. See Appendix C for definitions of prices and indexes. Figures may not match due to rounding.
SPECIAL FOCUS:
OPEC in historical context:
Commodity agreements and market fundamentals
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
SPECIAL FOCUS
OPEC in historical context: Commodity
agreements and market fundamentals
On September 28, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to limit crude
oil output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day, effectively ending two years of unrestrained production. This marked
an important policy shift, especially for Saudi Arabia, the organization’s largest producer. The details of OPEC’s plan
are to be worked out and announced at the group’s meeting on November 30. The Islamic Republic of Iran, Libya, and
Nigeria, all OPEC members, are likely to be exempted from the production limits because of earlier production losses.
The plan, if implemented, would be the first production cut since 2008. OPEC is also preparing a framework for
consultations with non-OPEC producers. Against this background, this Special Focus section addresses the following
questions: (1) What does OPEC’s new plan entail? (2) How does OPEC compare with earlier formal commodity agreements? (3) What do market forces over the past decade imply for OPEC’s ability to control prices? It concludes that
formal commodity agreements have limited ability to influence the market and eventually collapse, often with unintended consequences. In the case of OPEC, the only surviving commodity organization seeking to influence markets,
guiding global oil prices will be challenging in the presence of unconventional oil producers, notably U.S. shale oil.
OPEC’s new plan
On September 28, 2016, OPEC members (which
currently account for one-third of global production)
agreed to limit output to 32.5-33.0 mb/d, but details
and a final decision are being deferred until a meeting
on November 30 (Figure 1).
Specifics of the plan are to be worked out by a highlevel committee, which is also tasked with preparing a
framework for consultations with non-OPEC producers. The Russian Federation has tentatively agreed
to support OPEC’s decision to limit production.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, Libya, and Nigeria are
likely to be given exemptions because of earlier production losses.
The plan, which effectively ends two years of unrestrained production, marks an important policy shift
for Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer.
OPEC members must agree on a number of issues,
including individual member quotas, the base period
for any cuts, the timing of implementation, and
at what level excluded countries would cap production. A cut to 32.5 mb/d would entail a 1.0 mb/d reduction from current output, or 0.5 mb/d if the ceiling were set at 33.0 mb/d. Should the Islamic Republic
of Iran, Libya, and Nigeria raise production significantly in the coming months, larger cuts would be
warranted by other producers to meet their overall
targets (Figure F2).
Comparison of OPEC with earlier
commodity agreements1
The decision by OPEC to abandon production quotas in favor of a market-share strategy in November
2014 and its recent decision to again limit production
F1 OPEC oil production and quotas
F2 OPEC production, 2010 and 2016
mb/d
35
mb/d
50
Saudi Arabia
Iran, Libya, Nigeria
Other Gulf
Other non Gulf
Production
40
30
30
Quotas
20
25
10
20
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Sources: World Bank, International Energy Agency.
Note: Last observation is September 2016. Quotas ceased after November 2014.
0
Sep-10
Sep-16
Source: International Energy Agency.
Notes: Other Gulf is Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. Other non Gulf is
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, República Bolivariana de Venezuela.
5
6
SPECIAL FOCUS
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
have led to a debate about the effectiveness of OPEC
managing markets. OPEC production has fluctuated
significantly, especially in the 1980s, as it sought to
first cut production to maintain high prices, and later
abandoned that effort to regain market share (Figures
F3 and F4).
Efforts to manage world commodity markets to
achieve price objectives have not been unique to the
oil market. The historical record of such arrangements
may offer insights about what lies in store for OPEC.
A number of formal commodity agreements, often
negotiated among producing and consuming nations
to stabilize prices at levels deemed fair to both, were
put in place after World War II. These arrangements
covered coffee, olive oil, sugar, tin, and wheat (Swerling 1968). A renewed effort to establish commodity
agreements took place after the 1970s price boom.
Such accords were typically backed by the United Nations and were extended to other commodities, including cocoa and natural rubber (Gilbert 1996). Participants agreed to legally binding ways to manage
markets, including export restrictions and inventory
management. However, these laws proved to be the
agreements’ undoing. Over the long term, price and
trade restrictions imposed by some of the agreements
either encouraged the emergence of competitor products, such as aluminum for tin, or the entry of new
producers, as Vietnam in the case of coffee. With the
exception of OPEC, all of these agreements have
collapsed.
ment were higher and more stable than before, new
tin producers outside the agreement entered the market: Brazil, for example, increased its market share
from 1 percent in the 1960s to 10 percent in the
1980s. In addition, higher tin prices under the ITA
encouraged the development of a substitute, aluminum, which gained market share by capturing growing demand from beverage can producers. Between
the 1950s and 2000s, global tin output grew by 65
percent while aluminum output grew twice as much.
Coffee
In 1962, coffee-producing countries accounting for
90 percent of global coffee output joined with almost
all developed coffee-consuming countries to sign the
International Coffee Agreement (ICA) with the objective of stabilizing world coffee prices through mandatory export quotas (Akiyama and Varangis 1990).
Higher coffee prices encouraged the emergence of
new producers. For example, before the agreement
collapsed in 1989, two non-ICA members, the Union
of Soviet Socialist Republics and the German Democratic Republic, provided Vietnam with technical and
financial assistance to develop its coffee industry
(Baffes, Lewin, and Varangis 2005). In 1970, Vietnam produced just 0.7 percent of the 59 million bags
of annual global production. By the early 2000s, it
had overtaken Colombia as the world’s second-largest
coffee producer after Brazil. It now accounts for 20
percent of global coffee production.
Tin
Natural Rubber
First negotiated in 1954 with the objective of maintaining tin prices within a desired range through the
management of buffer stocks, the International Tin
Agreement (ITA) collapsed in 1985 following several
years of insufficient funds to maintain stocks (Chandrasekhar 1989). Because tin prices under the agree-
Another arrangement, covering natural rubber, collapsed during the Asian financial crisis due to currency volatility of three key producers: Indonesia,
Malaysia, and Thailand. A buffer stock of rubber was
used to maintain prices within a desired range. The
buffer stock manager was authorized to buy or sell
F4 OPEC oil production
F3 World oil production
mb/d
mb/d
60
40
50
Non-OPEC
40
OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Other Gulf
Non Gulf
30
20
30
10
20
10
1965
1975
1985
Source: International Energy Agency.
1995
2005
2015
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Other Gulf is Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. Non Gulf is Algeria,
Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, and República Bolivariana de
Venezuela.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
SPECIAL FOCUS
rubber when its price (indexed into the domestic currencies of these three producers) dropped or exceeded
a certain level (Khan 1980). Because of weak global
demand (partly due to the Asian crisis), U.S. dollardenominated rubber prices declined and should have
triggered production cuts. However, the currencies of
the three main rubber-producing countries devalued
sharply during the Asian crisis and raised the localcurrency prices of rubber, triggering a production expansion in the rubber pricing mechanism. This inconsistency eventually led to the collapse of the
agreement.
mand, and non-OPEC supply. Production cuts in
1998-99 during the East Asian financial crisis and
2008-09 during the deep global recession were instrumental in lifting oil prices. Overall, high oil prices
during the commodity price boom stimulated new
supplies, which again challenged the organization’s
ability to influence the oil market. A key difference
between OPEC and the earlier formal commodity
agreements is that OPEC does not have contractual
rules dictating whether and how to intervene in markets. Thus, the organization has endured and responded flexibly to changing circumstances.
Crude oil
Implications of market forces over
the past decade
The largest player in the global crude oil market is
OPEC, which was founded in 1960 to “co-ordinate
and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers; an efficient, economic and regular
supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair
return on capital to those investing in the industry”
(OPEC 2016). At present, the organization consists
of 14 members.2 OPEC began to significantly affect
the oil market in 1973 following its decision to impose an embargo on oil exports and the subsequent
quadrupling of its official oil prices—from $2.70/bbl
in September 1973 to more than $10/bbl in 1974.
Following the substantial loss of Iranian oil during the
1989-90 revolution, oil prices spiked to over $40/bbl,
but OPEC decided to set its official price of Saudi
Light oil at $34/bbl. Saudi Arabia became the swing
producer through 1985. But this role caused production to fall by two-thirds, leading it to abandon that
role and regain its market share.3
Following two decades of relative stability, most commodity prices began increasing in the early 2000s,
leading to the longest, most broad-based commodity
price boom since the Second World War. Oil prices
briefly approached $150/bbl in July 2008. The causes
of the boom were numerous, and included a surge in
growth by emerging markets (especially China), low
investment prior to the boom (partly a result of the
2-decade long low commodity prices), and abundant
financial liquidity. As global demand collapsed, oil
prices halved during the global financial crisis. After
the financial crisis, virtually all commodity prices rebounded, led by oil due to large production cuts by
OPEC and strong emerging market demand. Commodity prices reached a new peak in early 2011 (Figure F5). However, markets then began to tilt into surplus due to weaker growth prospects for emerging
markets and supply that had begun to build up.
Industrial commodity prices began falling in 2011,
but oil prices remained high for nearly four more
years. OPEC production restraint, and outages in a
number of countries—notably the Islamic Republic
Over the next three decades, OPEC influenced oil
prices through individual member quotas, adjusting
them during the ebb and flow of oil prices, oil de-
F6 Crude oil supply growth
US$, Jan 2011=100
150
Oil
mb/d, cummulative growth since 2010Q4
Iran
4
Libya
Syria
3
Yemen
United States
2
Net Changes
Thousands
F5 Commodity price indices
125
100
Metals
1
0
75
50
25
Jan-05
-1
Agriculture
raw materials
Jan-07
Jan-09
-2
Jan-11
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-13
Jan-15
-3
2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Last observation is 2016Q3.
7
SPECIAL FOCUS
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
of Iran, Libya, Nigeria, and Yemen—offset the large
growth in non-OPEC supply, which came mainly
from U.S. shale (Figure F6). However, global oil supply was building, not only from shale, but also from
other unconventional sources including biofuels, Canadian oil sands, and from non-OPEC members such
as Brazil, China, and Russia (Figure F7). By 2014,
global oil supplies had begun to exceed demand by
nearly 1 mb/d, led by U.S. oil production growth.
OPEC members faced a decision of either cutting
production and preserving high oil prices, or seeking
to protect market share by allowing prices to drop.
They chose the latter, and prices fell to less than $30/
bbl in January 2016.4
A new development over the two decades that altered
the landscape of the energy industry has been the development of U.S. shale deposits. U.S. shale technologies—the combined use of hydraulic fracturing and
horizontal drilling—were first used to develop natural
gas shale deposits. Substantial growth in shale gas production led to a collapse in U.S. gas prices and eventually drilling for shale gas (Figure F8). “New” natural
gas basins were developed in the U.S. northeast and
elsewhere. Production has expanded to the extent that
the country has begun exporting liquefied natural gas
abroad, in addition to increasing pipeline exports to
Mexico. Despite expanded production, the United
States remains a net importer of natural gas, mainly
from Canada.
Spurred by shale technologies and high prices, shale
oil production grew quickly and became the main
source of growth in U.S. oil production (Figure F9).
It now accounts for more than 5 percent of global oil
production. Production from shale wells follows a
much shorter cycle than conventional development.
Wells deplete rapidly and are usually 70 percent
F7 Non-OPEC oil supply growth 2005-2015
F8 U.S. rotary rigs
United States
Biofuels
Russia
Canada
Brazil
China
Colombia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Oman
Thailand
South Sudan
Ghana
Rig count
1,800
Gas rigs
1,500
1,200
900
600
Oil rigs
300
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
mb/d
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Biofuels are not included in country totals. The numbers represent cumulative
additions from 2005 to 2015.
F9 U.S. crude oil production
Thousands
8
0
Jan-90
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
F10 Oil prices
US$/bbl, deflated by U.S. CPI (2014 terms)
150
1.2
120
0.6
90
-0.6
-1.2
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Shaded area (October 2016 to December 2018) represents IEA projections.
Jan-15
Source: Baker Hughes.
Note: Weekly frequency. Last observation is October 14, 2016.
mb/d, monthly change year-over-year
1.8
The plunge begins
0.0
Jan-10
1985-86 price collapse
Price drops 66% in 82 days
60
1965-2016 average
price: $48.24/bbl
30
0
1965
2015-16 price collapse
Price drops 51% in 83 days
1975
1985
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1995
2005
2015
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
tapped in the first year—compared with just a few
percent in conventional wells that can last decades.
The shale industry is still relatively new and continues
to make significant gains in productivity, technology,
and operating practices.5 With the collapse in oil
prices over the past two years, production costs have
fallen significantly. Rystad Energy (2016) reports that
the average shale wellhead breakeven price decreased
on average by 22 percent year-over-year from 2013 to
2016. In addition, U.S. shale oil producers benefit
from the fact that they are able to hedge (sell) the bulk
of their production forward on futures markets and
receive a predictable revenue stream.
OPEC’s decision to reinstate quotas comes as the oil
market adjusts its balance of stocks and supply to a
period of lower prices. The organization’s decision
also comes as prices are near their long term 50-year
average (Figure 10). Should OPEC and other producers succeed in restraining production and lifting prices
meaningfully, investment in oil production and nonOPEC supply would likely rise—especially in view of
the flexible nature of shale oil production. This is
likely to test OPEC’s ability to lift oil prices in the
medium term.
Endnotes
1. This section draws heavily from Baffes, Kose, Ohnsorge,
and Stocker (2015).
2. OPEC was created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10-14, 1960, by Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, República Bolivariana de Venezuela, and Saudi
Arabia. The five founding members were later joined by
nine other Members: Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962; it
suspended its membership from January 2009 to December 2015, before rejoining), Libya (1962), United
Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971),
Ecuador (1973; it suspended its membership from December 1992 to October 2007, before rejoining), Angola
(2007), and Gabon (1975; which terminated its membership in January 1995 but rejoined in July 2016). Currently OPEC’s membership consists of 14 countries.
3. Swing producer is defined as a large producer with the
ability to lower and raise production to affect the level of
prices.
4. The 2014-15 oil price plunge shares a number of similarities with the 1985-86 collapse. Both price collapses
took place after a long period of high oil prices, in part
SPECIAL FOCUS
supported by OPEC. In both cases, high prices brought
new oil supplies: North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska
prior to 1985 (accounting for about 9 percent of global
oil supply in 1985) and Canadian oil sands, biofuels, and
U.S. shale oil prior to 2014 (accounting for about 8 percent of global oil supply in 2014). In both cases the oil
collapse was aided by OPEC’s actions.
5. For example, well productivity in the Bakken shale basin
in North Dakota has risen from less than 300 barrels per
well to 1,000 barrels per well from 2012 to 2016. Key
operating improvements include shorter drilling cycles,
longer laterals, multi-well drilling pads, tighter well spacing, greater proppant use, improved geo-steering, and
refracting of wells.
References
Akiyama, T., and P. Varangis. 1990. “The Impact of
the International Coffee Agreement on Producing
Countries.” World Bank Economic Review, 4,
157-173.
Baffes, J., A. Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and M. Stocker.
2015. “The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes,
Consequences, and Policy Responses.” Policy Research Note 1. The World Bank, Washington D.C.
Baffes, J., B. Lewin, and P. Varangis. 2005. “Coffee:
Market Setting and Policies.” In Global Agricultural
Trade and the Developing Countries. Ed. M.A. Aksoy
and J. Beghin. The World Bank, Washington D.C.
Chandrasekhar, S. 1989. “Cartel in a Can: The Financial Collapse of the International Tin Council.”
Northwestern Journal of International Law and Business, 10, 308-332.
Gilbert, C. L. 1996. “International Commodity
Agreements: An Obituary.” World Development, 24,
1-19.
Khan, K. 1980. “The International Natural Rubber
Agreement 1979.” Resources Policy, 6, 253-265.
OPEC. 2015. “Brief History.” www.opec.org. Accessed on October 16, 2016.
Rystad Energy. 2016. North American Shale Report,
July.
Swerling, B. C. 1968. “Commodity Agreements.” International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences.
9
Commodity Market
Developments
and Outlook
Energy
Agriculture
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals
Precious metals
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Energy
The World Bank Energy Price Index rose 3 percent in
the third quarter of 2016 from the previous quarter.
Oil prices were largely unchanged, as market rebalancing stalled. Meanwhile, coal prices surged 30 percent on government-ordered production cuts in
China that raised import demand. Natural gas prices
jumped 21 percent, largely due to developments in
the United States: strong cooling demand due to
warm weather, falling production, and higher exports—both by pipeline to Mexico, and via liquid
natural gas (LNG), mainly to South America.
Crude oil
Crude prices in the third quarter were little changed,
averaging $44.7/bbl (Figure 3). Prices were volatile,
however, falling from a high of $50/bbl in early June
to below $40/bbl in early August, on weak demand
and recovering supply from earlier outages, notably in
Canada. Prices later rebounded on reports of a possible production freeze among major oil producers, rising above $50/bbl in early October following an
OPEC agreement to limit output.
Disruptions in Canada, Nigeria, and elsewhere curtailed global production in the second quarter. But, as
supply disruptions were resolved, production again
exceeded consumption in the third quarter. OECD
total oil inventories remain high, particularly in the
United States, but stocks started to decline in August.
U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen seasonally for
the past four months, but product inventories continue to rise, in part because of slowing demand.
OPEC supply continued to increase to record highs,
up 1.0 mb/d over the first nine months, with higher
output from the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, and
3
Crude oil prices
a n a ly s i s
Saudi Arabia. At a meeting in late September, OPEC
agreed to set a new production target of 32.5-33.0
mb/d, but the details and timing were deferred to its
November meeting (Special Focus).
The spread between West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
and Brent spot crude oil prices narrowed significantly
in September, tipping into a small premium for WTI.
Declines in U.S. stocks helped boost WTI prices,
while additional supplies from Libya and Nigeria
tended to put downward pressures on Brent prices.
Futures prices several years forward show the WTI
discount to Brent widening to more than $3/bbl, as
the United States is expected to remain a large oil importer, and crude exports are expected to be limited
despite the removal of the export ban in late 2015.
Demand
While world oil demand is projected to increase this
year, there has been a marked slowdown in its pace of
growth. Demand expanded by 1.5 mb/d y/y (1.6 percent) year-on-year in the first quarter, but only 1.3
mb/d (1.4 percent) in the second (Figure 4). The
slowdown occurred in both OECD and non-OECD
regions. Demand growth is estimated to have slowed
further to 0.8 mb/d (0.8 percent) in the third quarter,
with all of the reduction in the OECD.
Non-OECD oil demand growth began the year rising
1.4 mb/d, or 3.0 percent, in the first quarter, but
slowed to around 0.9 mb/d in the second and third
quarters. Much of the recent weakness was in East
Asia, with China recording little growth in the third
quarter due to slowing industrial use and other temporary factors, such as heavy flooding that impeded
transportation. India’s demand remained robust, rising 0.3 mb/d, or 8 percent, year-to-date.
World oil demand for 2016 is projected to increase by
4
World oil demand growth
mb/d, quarterly change year-over-year
4
US$/bbl
70
60
OECD
China
Other Non-OECD
2
50
Brent
0
40
WTI
30
20
Jan-15 Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16
Source: Bloomberg.
Note: Daily frequency. Last observation is October 18, 2016.
-2
Jul-16
Oct-16
-4
2007Q1
2009Q1
2011Q1
2013Q1
2015Q1
2017Q1
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Shaded area (2016Q3-2017Q4) represents IEA projections.
13
14
A N A LY S I S
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
1.2 mb/d (1.3 percent) to an average of 96.3 mb/d.
OECD oil demand is projected to rise by 0.1 mb/d,
with increases in Europe offsetting declines elsewhere.
Non-OECD oil demand is projected to rise by 1.1
mb/d (2.3 percent), led by increases in China and India but at the slowest pace since 2009. In 2017, global
demand growth is expected to rise by 1.2 mb/d (1.3
percent), with most of the growth projected outside
the OECD, and a small increase in North America.
Supply
Global oil production and consumption were broadly
matched in the second and third quarters, compared
with large surplus production of 1.2 mb/d in the first
quarter, and 1.6 mb/d in 2015. Supply outages in the
second quarter and continued declines in non-OPEC
supply, notably in the United States, constrained production. In the third quarter, world oil supply was
slightly lower compared with a year earlier, with declines in non-OPEC output nearly offset by increases
in OPEC production, led by the Islamic Republic of
Iran and Saudi Arabia, and biofuels.
Non-OPEC supply peaked in the fourth quarter of
2015 and began falling year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016, as the large investment cutbacks over the
past two years began to curtail production. Output
fell by around 1.2 mb/d (2 percent) in the second and
third quarters, with most of the decline concentrated
in the United States and, to a lesser extent, China.
There were also notable decreases in Canada (due to
spring fires in northern Alberta), Colombia, Mexico,
and South Sudan (due to outages). These were partly
offset by gains in Brazil, Republic of Congo, and the
Russian Federation. Non-OPEC supply is expected to
fall a further 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter, and record a decline of 0.9 mb/d (2 percent) for 2016 as a
whole, with nearly three-quarters of the decrease ac5
U.S. crude oil production
counted for by production cuts in North America.
For 2017, non-OPEC supply is projected to increase
year-on-year beginning in the second quarter, for an
annual rise of 0.4 mb/d. Notable gains are expected in
Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan, with small increases
in Ghana, Republic of Congo, Russian Federation
and other countries as past investments undertaken
prior to the oil price collapse come on stream. Declines are expected mainly in China, Mexico, the
North Sea, and the United States where higher-cost
producers are cutting back production.
U.S. oil production, which peaked at 9.7 mb/d in
April 2015, fell to an estimated 8.4 mb/d in September 2016. Virtually all of the 1.3 mb/d decline over
this period was in the on-shore lower 48 U.S. states,
shale-oil production takes place, with output in Texas
falling 0.5 mb/d. A small decline in Alaska was more
than offset by a 0.1 mb/d rise in the Gulf of Mexico.
U.S drilling activity has increased by over one-third
since May after having plunged 80 percent from its
peak in October 2014. Despite the increase of rigs
drilling for oil to 432 between May and October
2016, the number of oil rigs in operations remains
one-quarter of its October 2014 high of 1609 rigs
(Figure 6). As a result, production from the main
shale basins fell nearly 1 mb/d, according to the U.S.
Energy Information Administration. The largest
drops were high-cost production sites in Eagle Ford
(Texas 0.6 mb/d), Bakken (North Dakota 0.3 mb/d),
and Niobrara (Colorado/Nebraska 0.1 mb/d). An exception is the Permian Basin in Texas, where shale oil
deposits are among the lowest-cost to access and
where drilling has recovered as global oil prices
stabilized.
Large productivity improvements in the shale industry have supported production. Productivity in the
6
mb/d
U.S. oil rig count and oil prices
US$/bbl
150
8
7
6
Rig count
1,800
Oil price, WTI (LHS)
125
1,500
1,200
5
Other Lower 48
100
4
Gulf of Mexico
75
900
3
Alaska
50
600
2
25
1
0
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Source: International Energy Agency.
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
0
Jan-07
300
US oil rig count (RHS)
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Sources: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg.
Note: Weekly frequency. Last observation is October 14, 2016.
0
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Eagle Ford and Bakken basins has risen from less than
300 barrels per well in early 2012 to more than 1,100
and 800 barrels, respectively. In the Permian Basin,
productivity improved five-fold from 100 barrels per
well to more than 500. The industry is also reducing
its backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC),
from which oil can be extracted at roughly two-thirds
the cost of a new well.
OPEC crude oil production averaged 33.5 mb/d in
the third quarter, up 0.5 mb/d from the second, and
more than 0.8 mb/d higher than a year earlier. Since
the end of last year, OPEC Gulf production rose by
1.0 mb/d with increases centered in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia (Figure 7). Iranian
output is up nearly 0.8 mb/d to 3.7 mb/d, with exports of around 2 mb/d, compared with pre-sanctions
exports of 2.2 mb/d. Meanwhile non-Gulf output
dropped by 0.6 mb/d with declines in Nigeria (due to
pipeline attacks), and the República Bolivariana de
Venezuela (due to financial and operational difficulties). In Libya, the reopening of ports helped lift production from under 0.3 mb/d in August to 0.5 mb/d
in October. The national oil company is aiming for
output of 0.9 mb/d by the end of 2016. Nigeria’s production is also poised to increase if a ceasefire agreement with rebel groups holds.
In late September, OPEC members agreed to limit
output to 32.5-33.0 mb/d, effectively ending two
years of a market share strategy and unrestrained production (Special Focus). This represents an important
policy shift for Saudi Arabia, its largest producer. Details are to be discussed by a high-level committee,
with a final decision expected at the group’s meeting
on November 30. The committee is also tasked with
preparing a framework for consultations with nonOEPC producers. Russia has signaled support for
OPEC’s decision to limit production, with the possi7
OPEC crude oil production
a n a ly s i s
bility of reducing output. The Islamic Republic of
Iran, Libya and Nigeria will likely be granted exemption because of earlier production losses. If implemented, it will be the first production cut since 2008.
There remain important pending decisions about individual quotas, the timing of implementation, and
the level at which the Islamic Republic of Iran might
freeze production. A cut to 32.5 mb/d would entail a
1.0 mb/d reduction from current output, and 0.5
mb/d if the overall ceiling were 33.0 mb/d. Part of the
near-term reduction would occur in any event, as
Saudi Arabia usually reduces winter production by
some 0.4 mb/d due to lower power generation requirements. Should the Islamic Republic of Iran,
Libya, and Nigeria raise production significantly in
the next few months, cuts by other producers will
need to be even larger to meet their overall targets.
Price projections and risks
Crude oil prices are projected to average $43/bbl in
2016, a decline of 15 percent from last year, and average $55/bbl in 2017. Consumption is expected to begin to exceed production in 2017, particularly in the
second half of the year, and help reduce the large inventories. The forecast assumes OPEC will succeed in
limiting global production, and that U.S. production
will flatten out next year.
There are significant risks to the forecast, especially
given uncertainties about the implementation of
OPEC’s agreement and the trajectory of inventories.
Upside risks include a larger-than-expected OPEC
cut, and further outages in some oil exporters (e.g.,
Libya, Nigeria, República Bolivariana de Venezuela).
Downside risks to prices center on weak demand,
earlier-than-expected return of lost production, and
failure of OPEC to implement a meaningful reduction in output.
8
mb/d
15
OECD crude oil stocks
Million barrels
1,300
Other Gulf
1,200
13
Monthly stocks
1,100
11
Saudi Arabia
1,000
9
Non Gulf
7
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-13
Jan-15
900
800
Jan-07
5-year average
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Source: International Energy Agency.
Note: Previous 5-year average for each month. Last observation is August 2016.
15
16
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Coal
Natural gas
Thermal coal prices surged 30 percent in the third
quarter, reflecting strong demand and tightening supply in China due to government restrictions on production and adverse weather conditions, which induces floodings. China’s production has fallen sharply
since the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in April ordered coal mines to produce on a 276-day basis, instead of the previous 330days. The NDRC’s goal is to reduce coal capacity by
16 percent. Consequently, stocks in China have declined and import demand has risen. Seaborne supplies have been limited due to constraints in Indonesia and elsewhere, and suppliers will need to be assured
of sustained higher prices before responding with
larger investment, given coal’s unfavorable demand
prospects going forward.
Natural gas prices jumped 21 percent in the third
quarter, led by a one-third surge in U.S. prices to
$2.85/mmbtu (Figure 10). U.S. gas demand exceeded
production this summer, resulting in below-average
injections into storage. Warm weather that extended
into September boosted cooling demand and gas-fired
power generation.
However, China’s NDRC deemed the recent 30 percent price jump to be too high, and in September it
allowed some mines to temporarily raise output in the
fourth quarter on the 330-day working rule. It will
also relax a policy for some new mines to commence
operation before closure of old capacity. However it
reaffirmed its intention to maintain the 276-day rule
going forward. Although higher prices improved the
financial condition of China’s coal companies, the
government is also concerned that high prices may
damage supply-side reform and provide an incentive
to restart idled capacity.
Coal prices are expected to average $58/ton in 2016,
similar to 2015, and $55/ton in 2017, as supply additions and weak demand reduce prices during the year.
China’s coal policy will be key, given that the country
consumes half of the world’s coal output (Figure 9)
and coal accounts for nearly two-thirds of the country’s energy consumption.
Coal consumption
9
On the supply side, U.S. gas output has declined yearon-year since March, and exports have risen—both
pipeline shipments to Mexico, and liquefied natural
gas (LNG) cargoes mainly to South America during
its winter season.
The price of gas delivered to Japan rose 7 percent to
$6.5/mmbtu. Spot prices in Asia also rose due to increased import demand to secure supplies for winter
needs. European gas prices rose 7 percent to $4.4/
mmbtu, reflecting stronger demand in the power sector and some supply tightening (including a government decision to reduce production from October in
Netherland’s Groningen field—Europe’s largest)
heading into winter. In the United Kingdom, spot
prices jumped in September amid low storage levels.
The low levels stem from the halting of operations in
summer at the Rough offshore field, which accounts
for as much as 70 percent of the country’s gas storage
capacity.
Natural gas prices are projected to fall 31 percent in
2017, led by large declines in Europe (-39 percent to
$4.4/mmbtu) and Japan (-35 percent to $6.7/mmbtu)
as production cutbacks are resolved and demand
remains subdued. Natural gas prices in the United
States are expected to decline 4 percent to $2.5/
mmbtu in 2017, mostly reflecting ample supply
conditions.
10 Coal and natural gas prices
Million tons of oil equivalent
2,000
US$/mmbtu
20
Natural Gas
(Japan)
China
15
1,500
OECD
10
1,000
Other
500
Natural Gas
(U.S.)
Natural Gas
(Europe)
5
FSU
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: Last observation is 2015. FSU (former Soviet Union) to 1984; CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) thereafter.
0
Jan-00
Coal
(Australia)
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-12
Jan-15
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Agriculture
Food
Although the agricultural price index remained virtually unchanged in the third quarter, components of
the index varied considerably depending largely on
their respective supply and demand conditions (Figure 11). Grain prices declined more than 9 percent
due to larger-than-expected crops of wheat in Australia and Central Asia and of maize in the United States.
Beverage prices, on the other hand, gained 4 percent
in response to a surge in coffee prices.
Grain prices declined 9 percent in the third quarter of
2016. Most of the decline took place in the latter part
of the quarter, reflecting news of bumper crops for
maize in the United States and wheat in Australia and
Central Asia. Grain prices are nearly 25 percent lower
than their early 2011 peaks.
Agricultural prices are expected to recover modestly in
2017, mostly in response to higher projected energy
prices, with some exceptions. Grain prices are projected to increase by 3 percent next year, a slightly
larger increase than projected in July, and oils and
meals prices by 2 percent, on top of the 5 percent rise
this year. Beverage prices are forecast to decline marginally in 2017. Raw materials are expected to gain 3
percent after dropping a projected 4 percent in 2016.
Upside risks for the 2016 forecasts is an intensification of La Niña—a cooling of the Equatorial Pacific
Ocean that typically follows El Niño. However, even
if La Niña materializes, its impact is expected to be
limited. The main upside risk over the longer term is
increased government use of agricultural commodity
support policies. Price risks also stem from energy
prices, since agriculture is energy intensive, and biofuel policies (see the Special Focus section on how
OPEC could affect energy policies and the July Commodity Markets Outlook on the links between energy
and agricultural prices). Over the course of the next
five years, prices of grains, meals and oils, and raw
materials are projected to increase by a little more
than 10 percent each, considerably less than the post2011 declines (Figure 12).
11 Agriculture price indexes
The October 2016 assessments for the 2016-17 season point to a favorable crop. Global production of
wheat is expected to reach a new record, at 745 million metric tons (mmt), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Overall, conditions for
the global wheat crop are favorable in most key producing and exporting countries, including Argentina,
Australia, the European Union, the Russian Federation, and the United States. Minor weather problems
(e.g., wet conditions in Western Canada and dry soil
in Ukraine) are unlikely to alter current wheat production. As a result of the favorable crop conditions,
the stock-to-use ratio (a measure of the abundance of
supplies relative to demand) is anticipated to reach 34
percent, marginally higher than last season’s ratio of
33.8 percent, and a 17-year high. Trade volume is also
projected to increase on stronger import demand in
the European Union and Thailand.
Production of maize is projected to increase 7 percent
in 2016-17, reflecting good crop conditions in the
United States, the world’s top maize supplier, as well
as the European Union and Mexico. Some weatherrelated problems in key maize producers (notably
Canada and China) do not appear severe enough to
change the global outlook at this stage. Increased
global maize production, however, will be accompanied by a 3 percent increase in consumption, implying that the stock-to-use ratio for maize at the end of
the season will remain at 21.5 percent, the same as in
12 Commodity price indexes change
Percent
20
US$ indexes, 2010=100
140
2011-2016
2016-2021
10
Food
0
120
-10
Raw
materials
100
-20
-30
80
Beverages
-40
-50
60
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-13
Jan-15
Beverages
Oils and
meals
Grains
Source: World Bank.
Note: Price changes are based on annual averages.
Other
food
Raw
materials
17
18
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2015-16. The volume of maize traded is not expected
to change much in 2016-17.
the third largest annual increase of the past two
decades.
Rice production is projected to increase 4 percent in
2016-17, driven by production increases in Asia—
particularly China, India, Pakistan, and Thailand.
The expected uptick follows last year’s poor crop due
to an El Niño-related shortfall in some producing
countries in Asia, especially Thailand, where rice output declined by approximately 16 percent from 201415 to 2015-16 seasons. Despite increased production,
the stocks-to-use ratio of rice is envisage to rise marginally, due to a 3 percent boost in global consumption. Trade volume in rice is projected to change little
as higher exports by India will be offset by reduction
in Thailand and Vietnam.
The oilseed supply outlook during the current season
(October 2016 to September 2017) is also healthy,
with global supplies for the 10 major oilseeds projected to reach 701.1 mmt, 34 mmt higher than the
previous season. Most of the increase in supplies is
projected to come from a robust soybean crop, expected to reach 53.7 mmt in 2016-17, up from last
season’s 51.7 mmt.
According to the October 2016 assessment by the
USDA, global supplies (i.e., beginning stocks plus
production) of wheat, maize, and rice combined are
projected to reach 2,819 mmt during the 2016-17
season, 3 percent higher than last season’s record supplies. If projections materialize, 2016-17 will be the
fourth consecutive surplus crop year (Figure 13).
Supply conditions in most food commodity markets
for 2016-17 crop season are adequate. In the case of
grains, for example, the stock-to-use ratios for the current season are projected higher (rice) or similar
(maize and wheat) to the 2014-15 season. More importantly, these ratios are much higher than their 10year historical average (Figure 15). In view of the adequately supply conditions, together with stable
energy and fertilizer prices, the World Bank’s food
commodity price index is expected to advance only
marginally in 2016, with large dispersion among various prices (an increase in oils and meals and other
food items and decline in grains). A modest gain
(slightly less than 2 percent) is expected in 2017 as
well, to be supported by similar gains in both oils and
meals and grain prices.
The World Bank’s oil and meal price index declined
marginally in the third quarter but stood 12 percent
higher than a year ago. A 2 percent gain in palm oil
price (due to lower output in Malaysia and Indonesia)
was balanced by proportional decline in the price of
soybeans.
Risks
This season’s outlook for edible oils remains favorable
(Figure 14). After last season’s diminished output due
to the El Niño-related shortfall in palm oil production—only the second shortfall during the past two
decades, both related to El Niño—global production
of the eight most consumed oils during 2016-17 is
expected to rise 4 percent to reach 183.2 mmt. This is
Energy prices affect most agricultural commodities
prices directly through fuel and other energy costs and
indirectly through various chemicals and fertilizers,
13 Global grain supply growth
Percent
8
Chief among the risks to the forecast for agricultural
prices are the evolution of energy prices, weather patterns, trade policies aimed at supporting farmgate
prices, and biofuel policies.
14 Global production of key edible oils
Million metric tons, growth year-over-year
6
8
4
6
2
4
0
2
-2
0
-4
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Notes: Grains include maize, wheat, and rice. Data is year-to-year change.
Palm oil
Soybean oil
Rapeseed oil
Others
10
-2
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Note: Data is based on USDA’s October 2016 update.
2010
2013
2016
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a n a ly s i s
some of which are made directly from natural gas. A
key reason for the recent decline in agricultural prices
has been the reduction in energy costs. Oil prices are
expected to rise to $55/bbl in 2017 from an average of
$43/bbl in 2016. Fertilizer prices are also projected to
rise slightly in 2017. These projections imply a relatively small upside price risk to food commodities
prices. However, a greater-than-expected rise in energy prices would put upward pressure on food prices.
Weather risks to the agricultural price forecast appear
muted. An October U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration update put the chance of
La Niña, the successor of last year’s El Niño, at about
70 percent during the Northern Hemisphere fall season of 2016, with a 55 percent probability of persisting during the winter of 2016-17. Typically through,
the impact of even a strong La Niña on commodity
markets is much less than El Niño. And while last
year’s El Niño negatively affected the production of a
few commodities in the Southern Hemisphere, including rice and palm oil, it did not disrupt global
food markets. This suggests that La Niña may have
local impacts but is unlikely to affect global markets.
Two policy challenges have surfaced in the current
weak commodity price environment. One is that governments are increasingly shifting from policies aimed
at reducing consumer prices to those supporting
higher farmgate prices. Indonesia, for instance, has set
reference prices for food commodities including rice,
maize, and soybeans for the next four months. For
each item, a minimum price was set to protect farmers
from price declines along with a ceiling to protect
consumers from large price increases. Similarly, other
countries have announced support measures, including a duty on wheat and a minimum price on rice in
India, an import duty on wheat in South Africa, and
15 Stock-to-use ratios
Percent
26
24
2015-16 actual
2006-07 to 2016-17 average
Percent
38
36
18
30
16
28
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
32
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
20
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
34
Rice (LHS)
The second policy challenge relates to China’s decision to end cotton and maize stockholding programs
in 20015 and 2016. China’s stockpiling mechanisms
are expected to be replaced by less price-distortionary
programs, which are anticipated to resemble programs
introduced in the past by the European Union, Mexico, the United States, and others. The policy shift in
China is important because the country holds a disproportionally large amount of stocks compared to
the rest of the world. Also, it comes as commodity
markets are well supplied, with stock-to-use ratios
well above the 10-year historical average (Figure 15).
Any destocking action by China, even though it is intended towards a less price-distortionary program, is
likely to depress world prices.
Finally, the agricultural price outlook assumes that
biofuels will continue to be a source of demand for
food commodities. Biofuels, which currently account
for nearly 3 percent of global arable land and 1.5
mb/d (1.6 percent) of global liquid energy consumption, come principally from three major sources:
maize-based ethanol from the United States, sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil, and edible oil-based
biodiesel from Europe (Figure 16). The role of biofuels is expected to be less important in the long run, as
policymakers acknowledge the limited benefits of environmental and energy independence from biofuels
policies. Reflecting that shift, biofuel production grew
only marginally during 2014-25 after growing 10 percent annually over the prior 15 years.
16 Global biofuels production
22
Maize (LHS)
subsidies for machinery and improved access to input
credit in Nigeria. In contrast, agricultural support for
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries as a whole has declined by
roughly 50 percent over the past three decades and
now accounts of 17 percent of gross farm receipts.
Wheat (RHS)
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Note: Bars denote USDA stock-to-use projections for the 2016-17 crop year.
Million barrels per day of oil equivalent
1.6
United States
Brazil
European Union
1.2
Others
0.8
0.4
0.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy and World Bank.
Note: Last observation is 2016.
19
20
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Beverages
Agricultural raw materials
The World Bank’s beverage price index rose nearly 4
percent in the third quarter of 2016, driven by strong
gains in coffee (arabica and robusta rose 9 and 12 percent, respectively) and tea (up 6 percent) but balanced
by a 4 percent drop in cocoa prices. The strength in
coffee prices (Figure 17), which reached a two-year
high in October, reflects a significant drought-related
output decline in Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest
global suppliers of arabica and robusta, respectively.
The arabica surplus was smaller than expected, while
the robusta market remains in deficit resulting in an
estimated 2 percent increase in arabica prices and a 2
percent drop in robusta prices in 2016. Easing supply
constraints into next year are expected to leave coffee
prices little changed in 2017.
The World Bank’s raw materials price index declined
1 percent in the second quarter of 2016. Underlying
this, the fall in timber and natural rubber prices (down
5 percent and 2 percent, respectively) was nearly offset
by an increase in cotton prices (up 12 percent). The
raw materials index is down 3 percent from a year earlier and is almost 40 percent lower than its early 2011
peak. This decline is similar to the other two industrial commodity price indexes (metals and energy)
and reflects weak economic activity of the EMDEs
and a scaling back in the large investments that flowed
to the sectors during the post-2005 price boom years.
Cocoa prices declined 4 percent in the third quarter
and are 8 percent lower than a year ago. The weakening in of cocoa prices reflects expectations of a significant surplus in the 2016-17 crop season, which is in
addition to a 0.3 mmt surplus in the current season as
West African production recovers and Latin America
output expands. Next season’s global production is expected to increase by more than 10 percent, resulting
in a stock-to-use ratio of 38 percent, up from last season’s 33 percent. With the cocoa market well supplied, prices are expected to decline 2 percent in 2017.
Global tea prices gained 6 percent in the third quarter
with prices up 11 percent (Colombo auction), 5 percent (Mombasa auction), and 2 percent (Kolkata auction). The gain in tea prices reflects robust demand
and, to a lesser extent, lower-than-expected supplies
due to crop losses in Kenya, the world’s largest tea exporter. Tea prices are, however, expected to decline 4
percent in 2016 and gain 2 percent in 2017 due to the
market’s expected tightness next season.
17 Coffee prices
Natural rubber prices declined 2.3 percent in the
third quarter, a small downward correction following
the large rally of 22 percent during the previous quarter. Relative price stability in the third quarter reflects
some supply shortages from Thailand owing to unseasonal rains, balanced by increased production elsewhere in East Asia, and large stocks in Indonesia. Demand, on the other hand, weakened following falling
tire production in China. Natural rubber prices are
expected to average $1.50/kg this year, down from last
year’s $1.57/kg, but are projected to gain as much
next year.
18 Cotton and natural rubber prices
US$/kg
US$/kg
2.3
5.0
2.1
4.5
1.9
Cotton prices rose to near $1.80/kg earlier in the
quarter, a 26-month high (Figure 18). This strength
reflects a drop in global production in 2015-16 to
21.1 mmt, a decline of 7 percent from 2014-15.
World cotton production is expected to change little
next season as gains in productivity offset reductions
in allocated land. Despite the recent rally in cotton
prices, the sector is still mired in unusually high
stocks, with China holding more than half of those
stocks. Cotton prices are expected to average $1.66/kg
in 2016 and are projected to rise 4 percent next year.
Robusta
(LHS)
US$/kg
1.8
4.0
1.4
1.7
3.5
Arabica
(RHS)
1.5
1.3
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Natural
rubber
1.6
3.0
Jan-16
May-16
Source: Bloomberg.
Note: Daily frequency. Last observation is October 18, 2016.
Sep-16
2.5
Cotton
1.2
1.0
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Source: Bloomberg.
Note: Daily frequency. Last observation is October 18, 2016.
Sep-16
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Fertilizers
Fertilizer prices fell 7 percent in the third quarter of
2016 (Figure 19), down for a seventh consecutive
quarter and nearly 75 percent below their 2008 highs.
Excess supply, high stocks, and weak global demand
for imports contributing to the continued weakness.
Potash (potassium chloride) prices led the decline by
dropping 16 percent, with urea (nitrogen) down 8
percent and DAP falling 3 percent. Demand weakness
continues to stem from poor farmer profitability, low
crop prices, and weak currencies of key importing
countries. Despite cuts to production, the excess supply remains considerable due to falling costs, low
feedstock prices, and new low-cost capacity.
Potash prices plunged 16 percent owing to weak demand, high stocks, and ample supply. Production has
been curtailed by a number of producers to help stem
the oversupply. Demand has been weak, in part because farmers can defer application without a significant loss to yield and quality, unlike nitrogen application. New contracts signed with India and China in
June/July following sharply lower prices are expected
to dampen the downward trend, but global demand is
due to contract nevertheless this year. The market is
expected to remain over-supplied with new capacity
coming online over the next couple of years. This includes less-expensive brownfield expansions in several
countries and new greenfield projects concentrated in
Canada and the Russian Federation/Belarus region.
Urea prices dropped 8 percent in July, reaching the
lowest level in 12 years before rising in August/September following strong demand in Brazil and supply
outages. Urea fertilizers account for more than twofifths of total global nutrient consumption. Its demand profile is more stable than other nutrients because it is typically applied every year at stable rates.
19 Fertilizer prices
US$/mt
1,200
a n a ly s i s
The market continues to be impacted by new capacity
and low input prices (natural gas globally, and coal in
China), although the latter rose somewhat during the
quarter following supply tightness. The market is expected to remain oversupplied and capacity is expected to grow in a number of countries, including
the United States, where imports are expected to contract sharply and further bloat seaborne supply.
As for phosphate, DAP prices fell by 3 percent and
TSP by less than 1 percent due to oversupply and
weak demand in India, which continued to weigh on
these markets. Although demand has been strong in
South America this year, India’ imports for the current
fertilizer year (which began in April) are down by a
quarter. The reasons include high stocks, weakerthan-expected monsoon, rising domestic production,
and government policy delays on nutrient subsidies
and maximum retail prices. Markets are expected to
remain oversupplied, with new capacity expected
from Morocco in December and Saudi Arabia in
2017.
Fertilizer prices are expected to decline by 22 percent
in 2016 due to weak demand, high stocks, and rising
supply capacity. Nutrient application, which has been
on a rising trend (Figure 20), remains constrained due
to low farmers’ profitability. But there has been a
modest increase in crop prices which, along with depreciating currencies of some key exporters, may provide some market relief. Prices are generally expected
to increase moderately over the medium term due to
expected growth in demand and higher energy costs.
Risks to the forecast are skewed to the downside on
weak demand and expected increases in new production capacity. On the upside, higher agriculture prices
or currency appreciation could boost fertilizer demand and, hence, prices.
20 Global nutrient consumption
Million metric tons
DAP
200
1,000
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Potassium
160
Potassium
chloride
800
120
600
80
400
200
0
Jan-07
40
Urea
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-13
Jan-15
0
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
Source: Agrium Fact Book, International Fertilizer Industry Association.
21
22
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Metals and minerals
Metals prices rose by 4 percent in the third quarter,
the second consecutive quarterly gain (Figure 21).
Prices continued to rebound from first-quarter lows
on supply constraints, rising demand, and falling
stocks. Iron ore, nickel, tin, and zinc have risen by
more than 20 percent over the past two quarters on
various supply shortfalls, while the two largest consumed metals—aluminum and copper—have seen
more modest gains following ample supply. Zinc
prices have recorded the strongest gains this year, up
50 percent from January to September, due to ongoing supply tightness from mine closures and voluntary
production cuts, amid strong steel demand.
The impact from mine closures and production cuts
continued to propel zinc prices higher in the third
quarter, while the Philippine government’s possible
suspension of mines for environmental violations
boosted nickel prices. There are also reports that Indonesia may relax an ore export ban planned for January 2017 for such metals as copper, iron ore, lead, and
zinc. The objective is to give companies more time to
build value-added domestic processing capacity—the
major intent of the law. An ore export ban in January
2014 continues to impact global supply and export
flows for nickel and bauxite.
China’s policy efforts to boost the commodity-intensive infrastructure and construction sectors has been a
key driver of demand this year. Its share of world
metal consumption rose above 50 percent in 2015
(Figure 22), and the country accounted for the majority of global growth over the past 15 years (Figure 23).
However the transition to a consumption-led economy, along with industrial sector reform and environmental concerns, is expected to slow demand growth
for raw materials.
21 Metal and mineral prices
Individual Metal Trends
Zinc prices soared 17 percent due to tightening in the
zinc concentrate market. Behind the tightening are
large mine closures in recent years due to exhaustion
(Australia, Canada, Ireland) and price-driven production cuts by Glencore (Australia, Peru, Kazakhstan)
and Nyrstar (Tennessee). The latter will restart in the
first quarter of 2017. London Metal Exchange (LME)
stocks are steady (Figure 24) on subdued refined metal
imports into China; there is an unknown amount of
inventory off-exchange, particularly in China. Demand for zinc to galvanize steel has increased, which
has helped drive the zinc market into deficit. Two
large mine projects, Gamsberg and Dugald River, are
planned for 2017/18. Supply could rise from numerous small mines in China—although the government
wants to curtail polluting and small-scale mining.
Idled capacity could also be brought back on line.
Nickel prices surged 16 percent on strong stainless
steel demand and potential loss of Philippines ore
output due to environmental mine audits. In late September, the government recommended suspending
55 percent of the country’s nickel production, or more
than 10 percent of global supply. Companies have
seven days to respond, and a final decision is expected
by end October. Nearly all of Philippine exports are
shipped to China to feed its nickel pig iron (NPI) production. The nickel market had already moved into
deficit with falling production output in the Philippines due to depletion, and declining NPI production
in China. Meanwhile, Indonesia intends to revisit its
January 2014 ore export ban (designed to encourage
value-added domestic processing capacity), and may
allow companies to export ore that are in the process
of constructing smelter/refining operations. Inventories remain high, but key drivers will be policy developments in the Philippines and Indonesia.
22 World refined metal consumption
US$ indexes, 2010=100
140
Million metric tons
5
120
4
Base metals
100
3
80
2
60
Iron ore
40
20
Jan-07
China
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Jan-13
Jan-15
1
OECD
Other non-OECD
0
Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Note: Last observation is July 2016.
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Tin prices jumped 10 percent on strong demand, falling stocks, and supply constraints. China’s refined
production fell during the summer due to government-enforced environmental shutdowns, with some
closures continuing into September. In addition, production in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of
tin, has declined because of price-related closures earlier in the year, and as the government limits export
quotas to deal with illegal mining and reserve depletion. Shipments from Myanmar continue to help fill
the gap, with output doubling this year, although
some of the higher exports may be from stocks. While
supply growth remains constrained near term, new
supplies are expected from Africa, Australia, and Brazil, and higher prices could reactivate idled capacity.
Lead prices rose 9 percent in the quarter due to strong
seasonal demand for batteries and reduced supply
from large zinc mine closures; lead is often a by-product of zinc ore mining. About 60 percent of lead supply is from secondary sources, recycled batteries (40
percent) and scrap (20 percent), making lead less vulnerable to mine closures. Lead faces demand threats
from a maturing e-bike sector in China and greater
penetration of alternate, cleaner, and more efficient
battery technologies. Partly offsetting this threat is the
increasing demand for stop/start vehicles, which have
batteries containing 25 percent more lead than conventional units.
Iron ore prices increased 5 percent, up for the second
straight quarter, on supply reductions, low stocks, and
strong steel demand in China for infrastructure and
construction. Iron ore supply is building and steel demand slowing, which is expected to lead to lower iron
ore prices going forward. New low-cost capacity is expected over the next 2-3 years, which will pressure
high-cost capacity to close. A key uncertainty is the
level of steel demand and production in China.
23 World metal consumption growth
Million metric tons, change year-over-year
12
OECD
Other non-OECD
China
8
4
0
Aluminum prices rose 3 percent in the quarter on falling LME inventories, strong demand, and production
cuts in China. The country closed high-cost capacity
this year, and has limited restarts and the commissioning of new capacity. However, the global market is
expected to remain oversupplied, as new capacity is
expected to ramp up in China and elsewhere. Further
closures of high-cost capacity are required to balance
the market and reduce the large inventory overhang.
Copper prices rose 1 percent, despite rising inventories. Strong demand from China’s construction sector
and the power grid provided support. However, the
market is expected to remain oversupplied as new capacity comes online in the next 2-3 years.
Price projections and risks
Metals prices are projected to decline by 9 percent in
2016 due to surplus capacity in most markets. Despite a rebound in prices from January lows, average
prices will be lower than last year. The largest declines
are for nickel, down 22 percent, due to high stocks,
and copper (down 15 percent) on continued excess
supply. Moderate decreases are projected for iron ore
and aluminum. These are expected to be partly offset
by moderate gains in zinc and tin as markets tighten
on supply constraints. In 2017, metals prices are projected to increase by 4 percent as most markets continue to rebalance. The largest gain is for zinc, which
is projected to rise more than 20 percent on continued supply tightening from large mine closures.
Downside risks to the forecast include slower demand
in China and higher-than-expected global production, including restart of idled capacity. Upside risks
include stronger global demand, further closure of
high-cost capacity, greater environmental constraints,
and policy action that could limit supply.
24 Zinc price and LME stocks
US$/mt
5,000
Thousand metric tons
1,250
LME stocks (RHS)
4,000
1,000
3,000
750
2,000
500
Zinc price (LHS)
-4
-8
a n a ly s i s
1,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
0
Jan-07
250
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Source: Bloomberg.
Note: Daily frequency. Last observation is October 18, 2016.
0
23
24
A N A LY S I S
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Precious metals
Precious metals prices rose 8 percent in the third quarter on strong investment demand and safe-haven buying, amid continued low interest rate policies (Figure
25). This marked the third straight quarterly gain,
placing the index up more than 20 percent this year.
Silver led the way, surging 16 percent, on strong investor and industrial demand, followed by platinum,
up 8 percent, on South African rand appreciation and
tightening physical supply. Gold prices lagged these
increases, but nevertheless rose 6 percent to average
$1,335/toz. The investor-driven gains were partly the
result of tepid U.S. economic data and the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to delay raising policy interest
rates. However, prices started to slip in late September
and fell sharply in early October as investors responded to news that the European Central Bank may
taper their bond-buying program, and on growing
expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise
rates in December.
Silver prices surged 16 percent on strong investment
demand, with record flows into exchange-traded
funds. The gold/silver price ratio fell from a 23-year
high of more than 80 in March to 67 in September.
(The average ratio since 1985 is 66.) Physical demand
has been boosted by strong photovoltaic production
in China, but consumer silver consumption has been
weak in China and India. Mine supply continues to
rise, but lower by-product output from declining
lead/zinc production may limit growth (Figure 26).
Platinum prices jumped 8 percent in the quarter
largely due to appreciation of the South African rand.
Platinum is linked to the value of the rand, as more
than 70 percent of the world’s platinum is produced
in South Africa. The country’s mine output edged
lower due to increasing safety-related stoppages this
25 Precious metal prices
US$/toz
2,100
35
Gold prices increased 6 percent in the quarter, reaching a three-year monthly high of $1,340/toz in August. The gains were driven by record investor demand via exchange-traded funds and the fallout from
the Brexit vote. However, prices fell sharply in early
October on comments by the ECB that it may taper
its bond buying program, and by the U.S. Federal Reserve that the economy is sound enough to absorb a
rate increase—now expected in December. Rising interest rates typically have negative implications for
gold prices, as investors seek yield-bearing assets.
Physical gold demand has been very weak this year,
and fell in the two largest consuming countries—India and China. Jewelry demand in India should improve in the fourth quarter during the festival and
wedding seasons.
Precious metals prices are projected to rise 7 percent
in 2016, mainly due to stronger investment demand.
Silver and gold prices are expected to rise 8 percent in
2016, but decline going forward on expectations of
U.S. monetary policy tightening and a stronger dollar.
Physical demand for gold is expected to recover and
remain robust in India and China, while mine production is expected to expand. Platinum prices are
projected to decline 5 percent on a continued large
stock overhang. Downside risks to the forecast include
stronger-than-expected monetary tightening, dollar
strengthening, and weaker demand. Upside risks include rising inflation, macro-economic concerns, adverse geopolitical events, and stronger physical demand from consumers, central banks and investors.
26 Global silver production
US$/toz
45
Platinum
(RHS)
year. However, wage negotiations in South Africa are
expected to be smoother than in 2014 when a fivemonth strike caused large disruptions in the industry.
Auto-catalyst demand has been strong in Europe and
China. Unlike other precious metals, however, investment demand has been weak.
Gold (RHS)
1,800
Thousand metric tons
300
Americas
250
Asia
Europe
Africa
Oceania
200
1,500
150
25
1,200
Silver
(LHS)
15
5
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
900
Jan-13
Jan-15
600
100
50
0
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Jan-10
Jan-15
Appendix A
Historical commodity prices
Price forecasts
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
27
APPENDIX A
TABLE A.1 Commodity prices
Commodity
Energy
Coal, Australia
Coal, Colombia
Coal, South Africa
Crude oil, average
Crude oil, Brent
Crude oil, Dubai
Crude oil, WTI
Natural gas, Index
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas, Japan
Unit
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/bbl
$/bbl
$/bbl
$/bbl
2010=100
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
2014
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Jul
2016
Aug
2016
Sep
2016
70.1
65.9
72.3
96.2
98.9
96.7
93.1
111.7
10.05
4.37
16.04
57.5
52.5
57.0
50.8
52.4
51.2
48.7
73.3
7.26
2.61
10.40
57.5
50.4
54.3
48.8
50.0
49.9
46.4
72.2
6.86
2.75
9.23
52.3
48.0
51.1
42.2
43.4
41.2
42.0
61.4
6.26
2.11
8.94
50.9
42.7
51.5
32.7
34.4
30.6
33.2
52.2
4.84
1.98
7.70
51.9
44.8
54.8
44.8
46.0
42.9
45.5
49.5
4.10
2.13
6.08
67.5
57.7
65.3
44.7
45.8
43.4
44.9
59.9
4.40
2.85
6.51
62.3
54.2
62.5
44.1
45.1
42.6
44.7
59.6
4.51
2.79
6.32
67.4
57.9
66.0
44.9
46.1
43.7
44.8
59.6
4.47
2.79
6.60
72.9
61.0
67.4
45.0
46.2
43.7
45.2
60.5
4.21
2.97
6.60
3.06
4.42
2.22
2.72
3.54
2.58
2.05
3.14
3.53
1.94
2.71
2.96
2.42
2.74
3.25
3.36
1.87
2.85
2.83
2.78
2.95
3.30
3.31
1.79
2.76
2.85
2.52
2.91
2.98
3.31
1.65
2.36
2.82
1.89
2.38
3.10
3.49
1.84
2.57
2.98
2.59
2.14
2.99
3.79
2.05
2.72
3.29
2.64
2.24
3.05
3.79
2.00
2.73
3.10
2.80
2.31
3.03
3.69
2.02
2.69
3.27
2.63
2.18
2.89
3.89
2.13
2.74
3.52
2.49
2.22
1,280
854
1,709
1,296
1,313
821
1,121
528
909
492
1,110
735
1,558
1,248
1,337
623
909
395
757
390
1,067
708
1,472
1,193
1,332
574
802
398
736
385
1,109
737
1,524
1,175
1,298
570
831
358
743
372
1,273
855
1,465
1,158
1,277
631
1,032
328
749
370
1,531
1,019
1,526
1,208
1,550
704
1,283
419
795
424
1,528
1,017
1,553
1,500
1,648
715
1,358
406
810
417
1,507
1,008
1,550
1,400
1,673
652
1,277
441
788
432
1,529
1,018
1,574
1,550
1,650
736
1,360
403
814
413
1,547
1,025
1,535
1,550
1,620
756
1,436
373
829
405
138
193
423
382
425
407
207
285
245
194
170
386
373
386
352
205
204
206
200
169
374
362
376
337
190
183
196
187
167
368
359
365
356
176
180
201
183
160
379
370
373
362
174
191
190
172
171
423
408
408
374
174
177
190
143
153
414
402
392
351
152
151
161
155
162
442
424
418
362
174
152
167
138
150
415
403
394
347
141
149
159
136
148
384
378
366
343
141
151
158
1.04
0.93
4.95
2.43
6.39
0.78
17.25
0.43
0.53
0.37
0.90
0.96
4.42
2.53
5.22
0.68
14.36
0.36
0.55
0.30
0.90
0.95
4.55
2.55
5.07
0.65
15.43
0.36
0.54
0.27
0.88
0.93
3.91
2.50
4.82
0.73
10.50
0.36
0.56
0.32
0.91
1.03
3.72
2.47
4.51
0.69
10.83
0.36
0.57
0.31
0.94
0.99
3.95
2.46
4.64
0.78
10.80
0.37
0.61
0.38
0.91
1.02
4.09
2.45
4.64
0.99
10.69
0.36
0.62
0.45
0.93
1.01
4.14
2.46
4.41
0.97
10.69
0.36
0.62
0.43
0.90
1.05
4.09
2.45
4.67
0.96
10.69
0.37
0.63
0.44
0.91
1.00
4.03
2.43
4.83
1.05
10.69
0.37
0.62
0.47
Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa
Coffee, arabica
Coffee, robusta
Tea, average
Tea, Colombo
Tea, Kolkata
Tea, Mombasa
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
**
**
**
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
**
**
**
**
Food
Oils and Meals
Coconut oil
Copra
Fishmeal
Groundnuts
Groundnut oil
Palm oil
Palmkernel oil
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand 5%
Rice, Thailand 25%
Rice, Thailand A1
Rice, Vietnam 5%
Sorghum
Wheat, US HRW
Wheat, US SRW
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Bananas, US
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Meat, sheep
Oranges
Shrimp
Sugar, EU
Sugar, US
Sugar, World
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
28
APPENDIX A
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
TABLE A.1 Commodity prices
Commodity
Unit
2014
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Jul
2016
Aug
2016
Sep
2016
465
282
517
789
898
877
389
246
451
733
833
875
389
244
447
743
845
875
383
245
450
727
827
875
386
258
474
686
780
875
395
276
506
688
782
875
391
291
533
630
716
875
387
286
525
630
717
875
392
294
539
628
715
875
392
292
536
630
717
875
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa
Logs, S.E. Asia
Plywood
Sawnwood, Africa
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia
Woodpulp
Other Raw Materials
Cotton
Rubber, RSS3
Rubber, TSR20
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum
Copper
Iron ore
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Precious Metals
Gold
Platinum
Silver
$/cum
$/cum
¢/sheets
$/cum
$/cum
$/mt
**
**
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
**
**
1.83
1.95
1.71
1.55
1.57
1.37
1.56
1.48
1.34
1.53
1.28
1.19
1.48
1.32
1.15
1.57
1.61
1.37
1.76
1.57
1.31
1.79
1.59
1.28
1.77
1.55
1.30
1.72
1.57
1.36
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
**
**
**
**
**
472
110
297
388
316
459
117
303
385
273
464
117
303
380
268
419
123
297
380
251
367
116
283
328
209
351
115
263
282
198
340
112
221
282
183
341
115
228
285
177
340
111
220
283
182
339
110
215
277
191
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
1,867
6,863
96.9
2,095
16,893
21,899
2,161
1,665
5,510
55.8
1,788
11,863
16,067
1,932
1,592
5,267
55.0
1,717
10,579
15,230
1,843
1,494
4,885
47.0
1,682
9,423
15,077
1,612
1,514
4,675
48.3
1,738
8,508
15,439
1,677
1,572
4,736
56.0
1,718
8,823
16,902
1,917
1,619
4,778
58.7
1,870
10,258
18,574
2,250
1,629
4,865
57.0
1,835
10,263
17,826
2,183
1,639
4,752
61.0
1,836
10,336
18,427
2,279
1,589
4,716
58.0
1,939
10,176
19,468
2,288
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
***
***
***
1,266
1,384
19.07
1,161
1,053
15.72
1,124
986
14.91
1,107
907
14.80
1,181
914
14.91
1,260
1,005
16.86
1,334
1,085
19.65
1,337
1,088
19.99
1,340
1,122
19.59
1,327
1,047
19.36
118.3
97.0
102.7
101.8
107.4
109.0
103.9
108.4
91.9
104.9
77.7
100.5
84.8
89.0
101.1
64.9
82.4
89.3
93.5
90.9
85.2
88.8
100.3
83.3
96.1
69.3
95.4
66.9
73.6
90.6
62.7
80.7
88.1
94.0
88.8
83.1
85.7
99.2
83.2
96.9
68.2
94.4
63.9
70.0
87.4
54.2
77.6
85.9
93.1
86.6
79.6
84.1
98.0
80.8
95.4
64.8
92.3
58.8
65.0
86.1
43.0
76.0
84.5
86.2
86.7
79.9
84.4
97.6
78.5
92.2
63.6
81.6
58.0
63.8
90.9
55.7
81.0
91.1
91.4
94.9
93.5
87.8
103.2
81.8
93.7
68.7
76.1
60.7
65.9
97.9
57.4
81.6
91.1
94.7
94.7
92.9
79.6
110.6
80.7
88.9
71.7
71.0
63.3
68.7
105.4
56.6
82.2
91.9
95.2
95.8
93.8
83.6
109.6
80.6
88.6
71.9
71.1
63.5
69.1
105.9
57.6
81.7
91.0
94.1
94.5
93.3
78.7
110.5
80.7
89.0
71.7
70.7
63.8
68.9
105.8
58.1
81.0
90.5
94.9
93.6
91.6
76.5
111.7
80.6
89.0
71.5
71.2
62.8
68.1
104.6
Commodity Price Indices (2010=100)
Energy
Non-energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Food
Oils and Meals
Grains
Other Food
Raw Materials
Timber
Other Raw Materials
Fertilizers
Metals and Minerals
Base Metals
Precious Metals
****
Source: See Appendix C.
Notes: (*) Included in the energy index; (**) Included in the non-energy index; (***) Included in the precious metals index: (****) Metals and Minerals excluding iron ore.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
29
APPENDIX A
TABLE A.2 Commodity price forecasts in nominal U.S. dollars
Commodity
Energy
Coal, Australia
Crude oil, avg, spot
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas, Japan
Unit
Forecasts
2018
2019
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020
2025
84.6
104.1
11.79
3.73
15.96
70.1
96.2
10.05
4.37
16.04
57.5
50.8
7.26
2.61
10.40
58.0
43.3
4.40
2.50
6.80
55.0
55.2
4.70
3.00
7.10
55.6
59.9
5.03
3.50
7.41
56.2
62.7
5.37
3.68
7.73
56.8
65.6
5.74
3.88
8.07
60.0
82.6
8.00
5.00
10.00
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
2.44
3.08
2.08
2.86
3.06
4.42
2.22
2.72
3.14
3.53
1.94
2.71
3.00
3.60
1.90
2.60
2.94
3.58
1.91
2.65
2.88
3.55
1.92
2.70
2.82
3.53
1.93
2.76
2.77
3.51
1.94
2.81
2.50
3.40
2.00
3.10
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
941
1,773
857
545
1,057
538
1,280
1,313
821
528
909
492
1,110
1,337
623
395
757
390
1,470
1,520
700
380
790
405
1,408
1,539
710
390
811
416
1,349
1,558
721
400
832
428
1,293
1,578
732
411
855
440
1,239
1,598
743
422
877
453
1,000
1,700
800
480
1,000
520
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
202
259
506
312
138
193
423
285
194
170
386
204
160
160
400
170
164
166
401
179
168
172
402
188
172
178
403
198
177
184
404
209
200
220
410
270
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
0.92
4.07
2.29
0.97
13.84
0.39
0.93
4.95
2.43
0.78
17.25
0.37
0.96
4.42
2.53
0.68
14.36
0.30
1.00
3.90
2.50
0.85
10.70
0.40
0.99
3.93
2.46
0.86
10.93
0.40
0.98
3.96
2.43
0.87
11.17
0.40
0.97
4.00
2.40
0.88
11.42
0.39
0.96
4.03
2.36
0.89
11.67
0.39
0.92
4.20
2.20
0.95
13.00
0.38
464
305
853
465
282
898
389
246
833
390
280
750
401
286
774
412
292
800
424
299
825
436
305
852
500
340
1,000
$/kg
$/kg
$/mt
1.99
2.79
4,589
1.83
1.95
4,991
1.55
1.57
4,908
1.60
1.50
4,800
1.66
1.57
4,766
1.72
1.65
4,732
1.78
1.73
4,698
1.84
1.81
4,664
2.20
2.30
4,500
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
445
148
379
382
340
472
110
297
388
316
459
117
303
385
273
349
113
245
292
195
358
113
251
299
203
367
112
258
306
211
377
112
265
313
220
387
112
272
320
229
440
110
310
360
280
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
1,847
7,332
135.4
2,140
15,032
22,283
1,910
1,867
6,863
96.9
2,095
16,893
21,899
2,161
1,665
5,510
55.8
1,788
11,863
16,067
1,932
1,575
4,700
54.0
1,800
9,300
17,250
2,025
1,626
4,913
50.0
1,850
10,126
17,723
2,500
1,679
5,135
51.7
1,901
11,025
18,208
2,600
1,734
5,367
53.4
1,953
12,004
18,707
2,570
1,790
5,610
55.2
2,007
13,070
19,219
2,541
2,100
7,000
65.0
2,300
20,000
22,000
2,400
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
1,411
23.85
1,487
1,266
19.07
1,384
1,161
15.72
1,053
1,250
17.00
1,000
1,219
16.89
1,046
1,190
16.77
1,094
1,160
16.66
1,145
1,132
16.55
1,197
1,000
16.00
1,500
$/mt
$/bbl
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa
Coffee, Arabica
Coffee, robusta
Tea, average
Food
Oils and Meals
Coconut oil
Groundnut oil
Palm oil
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand, 5%
Wheat, US, HRW
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Oranges
Shrimp
Sugar, World
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa
Logs, S.E. Asia
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia
Other Raw Materials
Cotton A
Rubber, RSS3
Tobacco
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum
Copper
Iron ore
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Next update: January 2017.
$/cum
$/cum
$/cum
30
APPENDIX A
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
TABLE A.3 Commodity price forecasts in constant U.S. dollars (2010=100)
Commodity
Energy
Coal, Australia
Crude oil, avg, spot
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas, Japan
Unit
Forecasts
2018
2019
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020
2025
79.7
98.1
11.11
3.52
15.04
66.2
90.9
9.49
4.13
15.15
54.4
48.0
6.87
2.47
9.85
53.9
40.2
4.09
2.32
6.32
50.3
50.5
4.30
2.74
6.49
50.0
53.9
4.52
3.15
6.66
49.8
55.5
4.75
3.26
6.85
49.5
57.1
5.00
3.38
7.03
48.1
66.3
6.42
4.01
8.02
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
2.30
2.90
1.96
2.70
2.89
4.18
2.09
2.57
2.97
3.34
1.84
2.56
2.79
3.34
1.77
2.42
2.69
3.27
1.75
2.42
2.59
3.20
1.73
2.43
2.50
3.13
1.71
2.44
2.41
3.06
1.69
2.45
2.01
2.73
1.60
2.49
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
887
1,672
808
514
996
508
1,209
1,240
776
499
859
464
1,050
1,265
589
374
716
370
1,366
1,412
650
353
734
376
1,287
1,407
649
356
741
381
1,214
1,402
649
360
749
385
1,145
1,397
648
364
757
390
1,079
1,392
647
367
764
394
802
1,363
642
385
802
417
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
191
245
477
294
130
182
399
269
184
161
365
194
149
149
372
158
150
151
367
164
151
154
362
169
153
158
357
176
154
161
352
182
160
176
329
217
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
0.87
3.84
2.16
0.91
13.05
0.37
0.88
4.67
2.29
0.74
16.29
0.35
0.91
4.19
2.39
0.64
13.59
0.28
0.93
3.62
2.32
0.79
9.94
0.37
0.91
3.59
2.25
0.79
9.99
0.36
0.88
3.57
2.19
0.78
10.05
0.36
0.86
3.54
2.12
0.78
10.11
0.35
0.84
3.51
2.06
0.78
10.17
0.34
0.74
3.37
1.76
0.76
10.43
0.30
437
288
804
439
266
848
368
233
789
362
260
697
366
261
708
371
263
719
375
264
731
380
266
743
401
273
802
$/kg
$/kg
$/mt
1.88
2.63
4,327
1.73
1.84
4,714
1.47
1.49
4,646
1.49
1.39
4,459
1.51
1.44
4,356
1.54
1.48
4,256
1.58
1.53
4,159
1.61
1.58
4,065
1.76
1.84
3,609
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
419
140
357
360
321
446
104
281
367
299
434
111
287
364
258
324
105
228
271
181
327
103
230
273
186
331
101
232
275
190
334
99
235
277
195
337
97
237
279
200
353
88
249
289
225
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
1,741
6,913
127.6
2,018
14,173
21,010
1,801
1,764
6,482
91.6
1,979
15,955
20,683
2,041
1,576
5,216
52.8
1,692
11,228
15,207
1,828
1,463
4,367
50.2
1,672
8,640
16,026
1,881
1,486
4,490
45.7
1,691
9,254
16,197
2,285
1,510
4,619
46.5
1,710
9,917
16,378
2,339
1,535
4,752
47.3
1,729
10,628
16,562
2,276
1,560
4,889
48.1
1,749
11,390
16,749
2,215
1,684
5,614
52.1
1,845
16,041
17,645
1,925
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
1,331
22.49
1,402
1,195
18.01
1,307
1,099
14.88
997
1,161
15.79
929
1,114
15.43
956
1,070
15.09
984
1,027
14.75
1,013
986
14.42
1,044
802
12.83
1,203
$/mt
$/bbl
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa
Coffee, Arabica
Coffee, robusta
Tea, average
Food
Oils and Meals
Coconut oil
Groundnut oil
Palm oil
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand, 5%
Wheat, US, HRW
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Oranges
Shrimp
Sugar, World
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa
Logs, S.E. Asia
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia
Other Raw Materials
Cotton A
Rubber, RSS3
Tobacco
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum
Copper
Iron ore
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
$/cum
$/cum
$/cum
Sources and Notes: See Appendix C.
Next update: January 2017.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
31
APPENDIX A
TABLE A.4 Commodity price index forecasts (2010=100)
Commodity
Unit
Nominal US dollars (2010=100)
Energy
Non-energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Food
Oils and meals
Grains
Other food
Raw materials
Timber
Other Raw Materials
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals *
Base Metals **
Precious Metals
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Forecasts
2018
2019
2020
2025
127.4
101.7
106.3
83.3
115.6
115.9
128.2
103.9
95.4
102.6
87.6
113.7
90.8
90.3
115.1
118.3
97.0
102.7
101.8
107.4
109.0
103.9
108.4
91.9
104.9
77.7
100.5
84.8
89.0
101.1
64.9
82.4
89.3
93.5
90.9
85.2
88.8
100.3
83.3
96.1
69.3
95.4
66.9
73.6
90.6
55.1
79.7
89.2
91.7
92.4
89.3
82.8
105.2
80.2
91.1
68.2
74.8
60.8
66.4
97.4
68.6
81.4
90.5
91.1
93.8
91.1
85.2
105.0
82.2
93.8
69.5
76.7
63.3
70.1
95.4
74.4
83.2
91.9
90.6
95.2
93.0
87.8
104.8
84.4
96.6
70.9
78.7
65.9
73.0
93.5
77.8
85.0
93.3
90.2
96.7
94.9
90.4
104.6
86.6
99.5
72.4
80.7
68.4
75.8
91.7
81.4
86.8
94.7
89.7
98.2
96.9
93.2
104.5
88.9
102.5
73.9
82.8
71.0
78.7
89.9
102.6
97.3
103.0
87.7
106.8
107.7
108.8
103.8
101.7
118.8
82.9
94.4
86.0
95.6
81.6
Constant 2010 US dollars (2010=100), deflated by the MUV Index
Energy
Non-energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Food
Oils and meals
Grains
Other food
Raw materials
Timber
Other Raw Materials
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals *
Base Metals **
Precious Metals
Inflation indices, 2010=100
MUV index ***
% change per annum
US GDP deflator
% change per annum
120.1
95.9
100.2
78.5
109.0
109.3
120.9
98.0
90.0
96.7
82.6
107.2
85.6
85.2
108.5
111.7
91.6
97.0
96.1
101.4
103.0
98.1
102.4
86.8
99.0
73.4
94.9
80.1
84.1
95.5
61.4
78.0
84.5
88.5
86.0
80.6
84.0
94.9
78.8
90.9
65.6
90.3
63.4
69.7
85.8
51.2
74.1
82.9
85.2
85.9
83.0
76.9
97.8
74.5
84.7
63.4
69.5
56.5
61.6
90.5
62.7
74.4
82.7
83.3
85.7
83.3
77.9
96.0
75.1
85.8
63.5
70.1
57.9
64.0
87.2
66.9
74.8
82.6
81.5
85.6
83.6
79.0
94.3
75.9
86.9
63.8
70.8
59.3
65.7
84.1
68.9
75.2
82.6
79.8
85.6
84.0
80.1
92.6
76.6
88.1
64.1
71.5
60.6
67.1
81.2
71.0
75.6
82.6
78.2
85.6
84.4
81.2
91.0
77.4
89.3
64.4
72.1
61.9
68.6
78.3
82.3
78.1
82.6
70.3
85.7
86.4
87.3
83.2
81.6
95.3
66.5
75.7
69.0
76.7
65.4
106.1
-1.4
105.4
1.5
105.9
-0.2
106.9
1.3
105.7
-0.2
108.5
1.6
107.6
1.9
110.7
2.0
109.4
1.7
113.0
2.0
111.2
1.6
115.3
2.0
112.9
1.6
117.6
2.0
114.8
1.6
120.0
2.0
124.7
1.7
132.6
2.0
Source: See Appendix C.
Notes: (*) Base metals plus iron ore; (**) Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc; (***) MUV is the unit value index of manufacture exports. For other notes see
Appendix C.
Next update: January 2017.
Appendix B
Supply-Demand balances
Aluminum35
Bananas36
Coal37
Cocoa38
Coconut oil and Palm kernel oil
39
Coffee40
Copper41
Cotton42
Crude oil
43
Fertilizers—Nitrogen44
Fertilizers—Phosphate and Potash 45
Gold46
Iron Ore
47
Lead48
Maize49
Natural gas
50
Natural rubber
51
Nickel52
Palm oil and Soybean oil
53
Platinum54
Rice55
Silver56
Soybeans57
Sugar58
Tea59
Timber—Roundwood and Sawnwood 60
Timber—Wood panels and Woodpulp 61
Tin62
Wheat63
Zinc64
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Aluminum
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
Constant 2010
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
Jan-04
Nominal
1,000
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1980
27,179
1,700
4,152
1,785
920
13,911
12,064
n/a
n/a
3,286
0
4,903
0
n/a
93,326
1990
40,697
3,655
9,876
5,277
398
16,150
10,937
n/a
n/a
2,496
0
3,267
786
n/a
114,835
Refined Production (thousand metric tons)
China
Russian Federation
Canada
United Arab Emirates
India
Australia
United States
Norway
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Iceland
South Africa
Others
World
358
n/a
1,075
35
185
304
4,654
662
126
0
261
75
87
n/a
16,036
854
n/a
1,567
174
433
1,233
4,048
867
212
0
931
88
157
n/a
19,362
Refined Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Germany
Japan
India
Korea, Rep.
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Brazil
Others
World
550
4,454
1,272
1,639
234
68
45
0
296
6,754
15,312
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Note: n/a implies data not available.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Bauxite Production (thousand metric tons)
Australia
China
Brazil
India
Malaysia
Guinea
Jamaica
Russian Federation
Kazakhstan
Greece
Saudi Arabia
Surinam
Venezuela, RB
Others
World
500
1970
Jan-16
861
4,330
1,379
2,414
433
369
152
0
341
8,947
19,227
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
53,801
7,900
14,379
7,562
123
17,992
11,127
5,000
3,729
1,991
0
3,610
4,361
7,315
138,889
59,959
17,408
22,365
12,385
5
19,237
14,118
6,409
4,815
2,495
0
4,757
5,815
7,038
176,807
68,535
36,837
32,028
12,662
124
17,633
8,540
5,475
5,310
1,902
0
3,097
3,126
33,532
228,802
76,282
44,052
34,988
15,320
122
19,974
9,339
5,166
5,170
1,815
760
2,873
2,285
39,538
257,685
81,119
50,339
33,849
20,421
220
18,763
9,435
5,322
5,193
1,844
1,044
2,706
2,341
64,212
296,808
78,633
65,000
35,410
20,688
963
19,178
9,677
5,589
4,515
1,876
1,965
2,708
2,316
11,775
260,291
80,910
65,000
31,231
26,383
22,867
20,414
9,629
6,580
4,683
2,100
1,964
1,871
1,770
10,080
285,483
2,647
3,258
2,373
536
647
1,761
3,668
1,026
509
0
1,271
226
683
5,699
24,304
7,759
3,647
2,894
722
942
1,903
2,480
1,376
708
0
1,498
272
851
6,788
31,841
16,244
3,947
2,963
1,400
1,610
1,928
1,728
1,090
851
0
1,536
826
806
6,630
41,559
20,251
4,024
2,781
1,861
1,714
1,864
2,070
1,111
890
0
1,436
803
665
6,766
46,236
23,153
3,724
2,967
1,848
1,597
1,778
1,948
1,155
913
187
1,304
736
822
6,569
48,701
27,517
3,488
2,858
2,296
1,767
1,704
1,710
1,331
931
665
962
749
745
6,526
53,249
31,410
3,524
2,880
2,464
1,886
1,645
1,587
1,241
961
835
773
756
695
6,686
57,342
3,352
6,161
1,632
2,223
601
823
211
34
514
9,456
25,007
7,072
6,114
1,758
2,276
958
1,201
390
85
759
11,022
31,636
15,854
4,242
1,912
2,025
1,475
1,255
703
650
985
11,317
40,419
20,224
4,875
2,086
1,982
1,690
1,278
925
835
1,021
11,013
45,929
21,955
4,632
2,083
1,772
1,559
1,241
867
835
988
10,563
46,495
27,204
5,250
2,289
2,034
1,523
1,282
915
835
1,027
10,945
53,305
31,068
5,325
2,126
1,779
1,476
1,366
952
835
801
11,353
57,080
35
36
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Bananas
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
Annual Prices (US$/kg)
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
Constant 2010
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
Jan-04
Nominal
0.2
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0.0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970
2000
2010
2020
1990
2000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,291
923
371
973
692
n/a
973
205
16
7
3
3
65
504
122
10
0
0
15
67
533
6,772
2,157
840
360
1,434
1,148
n/a
781
337
154
43
29
26
78
745
94
11
0
0
24
53
714
9,030
3,994
1,600
802
2,079
1,564
967
375
400
81
49
105
242
238
489
243
79
0
9
66
72
881
14,336
5,701
1,744
1,479
1,716
1,838
1,244
518
538
161
123
391
237
255
257
249
282
0
89
87
144
1,158
18,213
5,156
1,590
1,388
1,909
1,692
1,219
471
503
176
136
384
322
238
271
266
340
1
79
58
140
1,149
17,491
5,778
2,047
1,457
1,914
1,828
1,272
489
516
180
173
367
253
237
264
239
304
1
108
74
110
1,110
18,720
5,183
2,646
1,866
1,882
1,733
1,231
583
516
309
217
276
265
232
247
339
136
122
101
104
93
1,017
19,099
5,352
3,268
1,950
1,928
1,549
1,228
675
547
344
315
305
283
256
252
211
145
124
101
99
98
1,069
20,098
1,846
548
n/a
n/a
335
844
288
435
2
29
199
0
81
10
164
3
11
n/a
3
0
2,423
614
n/a
n/a
322
726
279
446
0
21
246
23
114
25
195
15
n/a
n/a
47
0
3,099
1,232
n/a
n/a
470
758
429
497
50
48
341
30
142
15
73
22
n/a
n/a
8
62
4,031
1,115
503
1,027
743
1,079
605
341
200
647
399
99
160
24
340
184
n/a
60
285
124
3,580
1,358
981
1,315
942
1,253
684
530
650
575
482
84
188
35
344
257
180
227
225
182
4,115
1,234
1,068
1,351
979
1,109
658
550
661
739
496
93
222
23
351
338
58
152
245
201
4,123
1,288
1,307
1,340
1,019
1,064
662
567
616
910
506
116
297
24
395
353
245
248
223
235
4,353
1,199
1,260
1,287
1,037
1,087
616
523
590
707
513
282
357
100
370
368
222
243
202
225
4,548
1,344
1,339
1,275
1,140
975
655
612
595
583
543
425
418
404
392
314
274
266
265
235
787
5,584
1,184
6,680
1,608
8,881
2,473
14,436
3,161
17,235
3,290
17,934
3,183
18,721
2,774
18,314
3,061
19,664
1,246
107
200
856
262
n/a
799
191
1
1
5
0
50
600
140
4
0
0
0
204
851
5,519
Imports (thousand metric tons)
United States
Germany
Russian Federation
Belgium
United Kingdom
Japan
Italy
France
Iran, Islamic Rep.
China
Canada
United Arab Emirates
Netherlands
Kuwait
Argentina
Korea, Rep.
Algeria
Ukraine
Poland
Turkey
Others
World
1990
1980
Exports (thousand metric tons)
Ecuador
Philippines
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Colombia
Belgium
Honduras
United States
Mexico
Netherlands
Germany
France
Cameroon
Panama
Côte d’Ivoire
Dominican Republic
Peru
Bolivia
Belize
Brazil
Others
World
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization, Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits.
Note: n/a implies data not available. Data include re-exports.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Coal
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
200
150
120
150
90
100
60
50
0
Jan-04
Constant 2010
30
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1981
311
463
64
65
0
n/a
75
3
103
n/a
149
23
3
43
n/a
2
7
n/a
2
3
5
78
8
n/a
1,863
1990
303
64
401
65
n/a
51
15
0
144
91
27
4
7
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,836
1990
2000
2010
2020
540
566
106
109
7
186
100
13
100
57
125
40
3
36
76
3
12
n/a
3
7
5
56
9
115
2,274
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
707
570
152
167
47
121
127
25
72
32
61
39
7
25
36
2
12
n/a
5
8
4
20
6
79
2,326
1,242
580
190
206
94
136
138
39
69
37
57
35
19
24
35
4
11
n/a
6
9
4
13
7
80
3,034
1,665
551
252
241
169
151
144
48
55
47
46
35
25
21
32
15
18
7
7
7
5
11
6
67
3,628
1,874
518
255
250
237
168
147
58
58
52
48
36
24
20
38
18
17
7
7
8
6
11
6
68
3,930
1,895
501
256
268
276
173
145
56
57
51
45
37
23
18
37
18
15
8
7
7
5
8
5
77
3,986
1,864
508
271
287
282
177
148
58
54
49
44
36
23
17
26
15
16
6
7
6
5
7
4
78
3,989
1,827
455
284
275
241
184
143
56
54
46
43
32
23
16
16
15
12
7
7
6
6
5
5
72
3,830
1,318
211
574
114
95
80
55
24
81
55
54
35
22
27
38
346
3,131
1,743
293
525
116
91
93
76
39
77
55
51
38
31
33
38
335
3,634
1,923
330
438
116
98
88
81
53
80
51
47
38
36
36
43
354
3,814
1,964
356
455
121
91
89
82
58
83
53
45
39
32
36
42
347
3,891
1,949
389
454
119
88
90
85
70
79
49
45
39
36
36
36
349
3,911
1,920
407
396
119
89
85
84
80
78
50
47
38
34
33
29
349
3,840
Consumption (million metric tons oil equivalent)
China
India
United States
Japan
Russian Federation
South Africa
Korea, Rep.
Indonesia
Germany
Poland
Australia
Taiwan, China
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Others
World
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Production (million metric tons oil equivalent)
China
United States
India
Australia
Indonesia
Russian Federation
South Africa
Colombia
Poland
Kazakhstan
Germany
Canada
Vietnam
Czech Republic
Ukraine
Mongolia
Turkey
Serbia
Mexico
Greece
Bulgaria
United Kingdom
Romania
Others
World
Nominal
526
110
483
78
182
67
24
3
132
78
37
11
16
39
75
381
2,243
701
164
569
95
106
75
43
13
85
56
48
27
23
18
39
316
2,379
Source: BP Statistical Review.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Production includes crude oil and natural gas liquids but excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives
of coal and natural gas included in consumption.
37
38
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Cocoa
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
Annual Prices (US$/kg)
3.5
10
3.0
8
2.5
6
2.0
4
1.5
2
1.0
Jan-04
0
1970
Constant 2010
Nominal
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970/71
1980/81
Production (thousand metric tons)
Côte d’Ivoire
Ghana
Indonesia
Ecuador
Cameroon
Nigeria
Brazil
Peru
Dominican Republic
Colombia
Others
World
180
406
2
72
112
305
182
2
35
21
212
1,528
Grindings (thousand metric tons)
Côte d’Ivoire
Netherlands
Germany
United States
Indonesia
Ghana
Others
World
35
116
151
279
1
48
801
1,431
Exports (thousand metric tons)
Côte d’Ivoire
Ghana
Ecuador
Cameroon
Nigeria
Malaysia
Others
World
138
348
46
75
216
3
294
1,119
Imports (thousand metric tons)
Netherlands
United States
Germany
Belgium
Malaysia
France
Spain
Italy
Turkey
Singapore
Others
World
116
269
155
18
1
42
34
41
1
3
460
1,139
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
417
258
12
87
117
156
353
7
35
38
214
1,694
804
293
150
111
115
160
368
11
42
52
400
2,507
1,212
395
385
89
133
180
163
17
45
37
195
2,852
1,511
1,025
440
161
229
240
200
54
54
35
361
4,309
1,449
835
410
192
225
238
185
70
68
48
223
3,943
1,746
897
375
234
211
248
228
82
70
49
232
4,372
1,796
740
325
250
232
195
230
85
82
51
246
4,233
1,650
800
320
220
220
190
180
85
72
53
250
4,040
60
140
180
186
10
27
964
1,566
118
268
294
268
32
30
1,315
2,325
285
452
227
445
83
70
1,480
3,041
361
540
439
401
190
230
1,778
3,938
471
545
402
429
290
225
1,810
4,173
519
530
412
446
340
234
1,840
4,322
558
508
415
398
335
234
1,697
4,145
540
516
428
390
370
230
1,706
4,180
406
182
19
96
76
40
282
1,100
688
245
56
96
142
148
362
1,737
903
307
57
102
149
17
451
1,987
1,079
694
136
204
219
21
643
2,996
1,045
601
165
186
183
39
423
2,643
1,192
709
197
160
192
90
381
2,920
1,234
586
235
205
113
71
365
2,807
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
167
246
187
28
n/a
59
37
32
2
22
418
1,198
267
320
300
50
1
74
45
56
6
127
516
1,761
549
355
228
101
110
157
49
72
39
67
682
2,409
806
472
434
194
320
149
88
86
71
88
649
3,357
672
428
273
225
305
114
99
88
78
80
635
2,996
641
475
318
258
315
141
107
90
88
81
656
3,171
471
445
343
252
228
137
104
97
88
81
629
2,875
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Source: Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Data for 1970/71 are average of 1968-1972.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Coconut oil and Palm kernel oil
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
3,000
2,400
2,500
2,000
Coconut oil
1,200
1,500
1,000
800
400
Jan-04
Coconut oil, constant 2010
2,000
1,600
Palmkernel oil
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
1,159
677
228
99
64
n/a
n/a
n/a
596
2,823
1,448
833
292
126
32
n/a
n/a
n/a
628
3,359
1,207
825
442
126
38
n/a
n/a
n/a
606
3,244
Coconut oil: consumption (thousand metric tons)
498
373
233
195
639
27
115
4
575
2,659
632
400
301
318
600
32
139
4
759
3,185
734
585
448
297
200
43
139
32
715
3,193
Palmkernel oil: production (thousand metric tons)
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Nigeria
Colombia
Papua New Guinea
Ecuador
Côte d’Ivoire
Others
World
36
250
n/a
82
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
195
563
229
827
n/a
146
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
261
1,463
709
1,289
n/a
190
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
349
2,537
Palmkernel oil: consumption (thousand metric tons)
Indonesia
Malaysia
European Union
China
United States
Brazil
India
Nigeria
Others
World
Coconut oil, nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Coconut oil: production (thousand metric tons)
European Union
United States
India
Philippines
Indonesia
China
Mexico
Malaysia
Others
World
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Philippines
Indonesia
India
Mexico
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
Papua New Guinea
Others
World
500
29
4
238
1
69
2
1
24
147
515
66
117
417
12
149
10
7
146
465
1,389
113
686
500
31
224
55
13
175
708
2,505
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
1,240
847
398
131
49
34
27
54
314
3,094
1,624
850
380
131
51
34
29
32
322
3,453
1,153
933
390
127
51
34
29
26
313
3,056
1,102
937
377
127
51
34
29
18
312
2,987
937
835
365
127
47
33
28
19
313
2,704
1,076
907
371
127
50
33
27
20
313
2,924
739
474
411
336
153
216
153
90
671
3,243
716
520
381
523
215
152
135
57
702
3,401
646
518
392
364
377
142
129
49
507
3,124
537
531
389
241
155
137
130
83
714
2,917
550
446
367
231
179
132
133
72
644
2,754
569
486
372
283
177
133
131
80
648
2,879
2,534
2,072
140
108
80
43
35
40
339
5,391
3,022
2,271
174
116
90
51
39
43
376
6,182
3,264
2,332
176
109
95
57
37
42
411
6,523
3,538
2,280
165
114
105
58
40
39
425
6,764
3,498
2,052
154
117
106
59
42
41
443
6,512
3,656
2,322
165
120
110
61
44
42
467
6,987
851
1,420
537
421
279
201
198
107
1,214
5,228
1,260
1,464
667
620
267
215
326
113
1,326
6,258
1,518
1,414
674
495
266
249
265
105
1,406
6,392
1,670
1,504
675
578
274
241
245
113
1,423
6,723
1,738
1,383
705
610
324
226
125
115
1,507
6,733
1,780
1,442
738
640
318
237
169
118
1,450
6,892
Source: Oil World.
Notes: All quantities are for the crop year (beginning October 1). For example, 2001/02 refers to October 2001 to September 2002. European Union includes EU-15
for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2016.
39
40
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Coffee
Annual Constant Prices (US$/kg)
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
8
12
6
9
Arabica
4
Arabica
6
2
3
Robusta
Robusta
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970/71
2010
2020
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
21,500
77
13,500
5,365
3,264
1,265
1,977
1,170
2,133
2,702
3,862
0
971
6,090
88
2,140
1,060
201
880
17,929
86,174
31,000
1,200
14,500
7,480
3,500
1,685
2,970
1,170
2,700
3,282
4,550
0
460
3,300
75
2,565
763
785
964
17,232
100,181
34,100
15,333
10,500
6,495
2,768
2,821
5,020
2,824
3,097
4,564
4,800
0
1,610
5,100
700
2,502
809
1,692
1,041
11,441
117,217
54,500
19,415
8,525
9,325
6,125
3,975
5,035
4,100
3,212
3,960
4,000
827
1,740
1,600
1,100
1,575
1,050
1,000
865
9,480
141,409
57,200
29,833
12,075
9,500
6,345
4,400
5,075
4,250
3,850
3,515
3,950
1,947
2,000
1,675
1,500
1,450
800
1,000
855
6,558
157,778
54,300
27,400
13,300
10,470
6,475
5,100
5,440
2,900
3,550
3,185
3,180
2,000
2,125
1,400
1,500
1,400
1,150
1,000
810
6,570
153,255
49,400
29,300
13,600
11,750
6,500
5,700
5,300
3,500
4,500
3,350
2,500
2,100
2,025
1,650
1,500
1,400
1,250
1,000
750
6,217
153,292
55,950
27,275
13,300
10,000
6,500
6,100
5,170
3,800
3,700
3,375
2,300
2,300
2,125
1,700
1,500
1,400
1,050
1,000
750
6,402
155,697
n/a
297
7,975
n/a
432
n/a
n/a
1,228
n/a
1,600
35
n/a
1,500
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,825
887
1,090
n/a
n/a
n/a
229
9,000
n/a
810
n/a
n/a
1,295
n/a
1,900
100
n/a
1,400
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,615
1,224
850
n/a
n/a
n/a
183
13,100
n/a
900
n/a
n/a
1,335
n/a
1,667
417
n/a
978
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,530
959
735
n/a
n/a
41,350
22,383
19,420
7,015
2,825
4,245
4,355
1,680
1,059
2,860
1,337
1,910
2,620
1,815
1,445
1,570
1,120
1,231
1,305
12,878
134,423
41,475
23,811
20,210
7,750
3,630
4,605
4,230
2,750
2,195
3,120
2,008
2,160
2,731
2,300
1,615
1,410
1,300
1,170
1,170
13,156
142,796
43,820
23,573
20,420
7,825
4,320
4,495
4,050
3,040
2,463
2,985
2,217
2,305
2,364
2,195
1,775
1,445
1,400
1,270
1,151
12,874
145,987
43,100
24,767
20,500
8,285
5,475
4,200
4,450
2,750
2,850
2,972
2,600
2,370
2,315
2,230
1,810
1,500
1,425
1,350
1,151
12,990
149,090
43,900
25,150
20,520
8,325
4,775
4,400
4,375
3,110
3,000
2,975
2,868
2,450
2,350
2,280
1,800
1,550
1,475
1,400
1,031
13,072
150,806
11,000
56
8,000
2,330
2,589
545
1,914
1,114
2,667
1,965
3,200
0
641
3,996
66
1,295
909
19
401
16,495
59,202
n/a
305
8,890
n/a
496
n/a
n/a
888
n/a
1,170
31
n/a
1,512
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,349
665
638
n/a
n/a
2000
1990/91
Consumption (thousand 60kg bags)
European Union
United States
Brazil
Japan
Philippines
Canada
Russian Federation
Indonesia
China
Ethiopia
Vietnam
Korea, Rep.
Mexico
Algeria
Australia
Switzerland
Colombia
India
Venezuela, RB
Others
World
1990
1980/81
Production (thousand 60kg bags)
Brazil
Vietnam
Colombia
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Honduras
India
Peru
Uganda
Guatemala
Mexico
China
Nicaragua
Côte d’Ivoire
Malaysia
Costa Rica
Tanzania, United Rep.
Thailand
Papua New Guinea
Others
World
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Note: n/a implies data not available.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Copper
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
Constant 2010
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1980
1,068
367
177
1,181
460
244
596
n/a
716
59
n/a
175
343
n/a
7,864
1990
1,588
318
296
1,587
356
327
496
n/a
794
169
n/a
291
370
n/a
8,997
Refined Production (thousand metric tons)
China
Chile
Japan
United States
Russian Federation
India
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Zambia
Germany
Korea, Rep.
Poland
Australia
Spain
Others
World
314
811
1,014
1,686
n/a
23
144
607
425
79
357
182
154
n/a
9,390
562
1,192
1,008
2,017
n/a
39
173
479
533
187
346
274
171
n/a
10,809
Refined Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Germany
Japan
Korea, Rep.
Italy
India
Turkey
Taiwan, China
Others
World
286
1,868
870
1,158
85
388
77
33
85
n/a
9,385
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Mine Production (thousand metric tons)
Chile
Peru
China
United States
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Australia
Zambia
Russian Federation
Canada
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Poland
Others
World
0
1970
512
2,150
1,028
1,577
324
475
135
103
265
n/a
10,780
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
4,602
553
549
1,440
33
832
249
580
634
1,006
433
365
454
1,476
13,207
5,321
1,010
639
1,157
98
930
441
805
595
1,064
436
391
523
1,619
15,029
5,419
1,247
1,180
1,129
378
870
732
703
522
871
404
270
425
1,985
16,135
5,434
1,299
1,552
1,196
608
914
782
720
580
398
491
500
427
2,088
16,989
5,776
1,376
1,681
1,279
817
999
839
720
632
494
538
480
429
2,251
18,311
5,750
1,380
1,632
1,383
996
965
756
720
696
366
501
514
421
2,399
18,478
5,764
1,705
1,669
1,373
1,039
957
754
720
697
580
566
540
426
2,517
19,308
1,312
2,669
1,437
1,802
824
265
29
226
709
471
486
484
316
3,731
14,761
2,566
2,824
1,395
1,257
968
518
3
465
639
527
560
471
308
4,135
16,635
4,540
3,244
1,549
1,093
900
647
254
767
585
556
547
424
347
3,640
19,094
5,879
2,902
1,516
1,001
880
689
453
700
534
590
566
461
408
3,627
20,207
6,667
2,755
1,468
1,040
874
619
643
629
680
604
565
480
351
3,737
21,112
7,959
2,729
1,554
1,095
874
764
742
710
673
604
577
511
428
3,707
22,927
7,964
2,688
1,483
1,135
874
792
775
710
678
604
574
489
426
3,905
23,097
1,869
2,979
1,309
1,351
862
674
246
248
628
4,929
15,096
3,621
2,264
1,115
1,229
868
680
397
319
638
5,516
16,649
7,385
1,760
1,312
1,060
856
619
514
369
532
4,932
19,340
8,896
1,758
1,114
985
721
570
456
429
432
4,772
20,133
9,830
1,826
1,136
996
722
552
423
453
437
4,626
21,002
11,303
1,767
1,162
1,072
759
622
434
453
465
4,774
22,811
11,451
1,792
1,219
993
705
611
491
475
471
4,529
22,736
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Refined production and consumption include significant recyled material.
41
42
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Cotton
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
Annual Prices (US$/kg)
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Constant 2010
Nominal
Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16
1970
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1970/71 1980/81
Production (thousand metric tons)
India
China
United States
Pakistan
Brazil
Uzbekistan
Turkey
Australia
Turkmenistan
Burkina Faso
Greece
Mali
Others
World
909
1,995
2,219
543
594
n/a
400
19
n/a
8
110
20
n/a
11,740
Stocks (thousand metric tons)
China
India
United States
Turkey
Brazil
Pakistan
Others
World
412
376
915
24
321
55
2,502
4,605
Exports (thousand metric tons)
United States
India
Brazil
Australia
Uzbekistan
Burkina Faso
Others
World
848
34
220
4
n/a
9
n/a
3,875
Imports (thousand metric tons)
Vietnam
Bangladesh
China
Turkey
Indonesia
Pakistan
Mexico
Thailand
Others
World
33
0
108
1
36
1
1
46
3,861
4,086
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
1,322
2,707
2,422
714
623
1,671
500
99
n/a
23
115
41
n/a
13,831
1,989
4,508
3,376
1,638
717
1,593
655
433
437
77
213
115
3,201
18,951
2,380
4,505
3,742
1,816
939
975
880
804
187
116
421
102
2,658
19,524
5,865
6,400
3,942
1,948
1,960
910
594
898
380
141
180
103
2,088
25,408
6,766
6,950
2,811
2,076
1,734
910
843
933
329
247
280
205
2,086
26,169
6,562
6,500
3,553
2,305
1,563
885
722
937
327
254
308
199
2,081
26,196
5,746
4,753
2,806
1,514
1,348
832
630
579
290
244
218
216
1,929
21,105
5,766
4,553
3,514
1,910
1,447
816
664
846
306
314
213
270
1,918
22,537
476
491
581
112
391
131
2,969
5,151
1,589
539
510
150
231
313
3,428
6,761
3,755
922
1,306
283
755
608
2,984
10,614
2,087
1,850
566
412
1,400
316
2,832
9,463
12,109
1,922
651
821
852
422
3,699
20,476
12,917
1,946
980
809
852
414
4,396
22,314
11,272
1,986
1,010
870
854
433
2,943
19,368
9,582
1,901
1,300
883
876
455
3,101
18,098
1,290
140
21
53
n/a
22
n/a
4,414
1,697
255
167
329
n/a
73
n/a
5,069
1,467
24
68
849
750
112
2,535
5,805
3,130
1,085
435
545
600
136
1,786
7,717
2,293
2,014
485
1,057
615
253
2,293
9,010
2,449
914
851
520
550
243
2,204
7,731
1,993
1,265
939
613
544
262
1,873
7,489
2,504
821
777
644
456
295
1,917
7,414
40
45
773
0
106
1
0
86
3,504
4,555
31
80
480
46
324
0
43
354
3,862
5,220
84
248
52
381
570
101
410
342
3,576
5,764
350
843
2,609
760
471
314
261
383
1,766
7,756
687
967
3,075
924
651
463
114
369
1,463
8,712
934
964
1,804
800
728
541
110
398
1,293
7,572
1,001
1,108
959
918
640
490
219
278
1,613
7,226
1,152
1,217
977
849
646
436
290
274
1,573
7,414
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee (September-October 2016 update).
Note: n/a implies data not available.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Crude oil
Monthly Prices (US$/bbl)
Annual Prices (US$/bbl)
150
150
120
120
90
90
60
60
30
30
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1980
Production (thousand barrels per day)
United States
Saudi Arabia
Russian Federation
Canada
China
Iraq
Iran, Islamic Rep.
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Venezuela, RB
Mexico
Brazil
Nigeria
Norway
Qatar
Angola
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Colombia
United Kingdom
Oman
India
Azerbaijan
Others
World
11,297
3,851
n/a
1,473
616
1,549
3,848
762
3,036
3,754
487
167
1,084
n/a
363
103
n/a
1,052
226
4
332
140
n/a
n/a
48,056
10,170
10,270
n/a
1,764
2,122
2,658
1,479
1,745
1,757
2,228
2,129
188
2,059
528
476
150
n/a
1,139
131
1,676
285
193
n/a
n/a
62,959
Consumption (thousand barrels per day)
Untied States
China
India
Japan
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Russian Federation
Korea, Rep.
Germany
Canada
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Mexico
Indonesia
France
United Kingdom
Others
Total World
14,710
554
390
3,876
435
516
n/a
162
2,765
1,472
224
412
138
1,860
2,031
n/a
45,229
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970
0
1970
Constant 2010
17,062
1,707
643
4,905
592
1,134
n/a
476
3,014
1,898
591
1,048
395
2,220
1,649
n/a
61,401
1990
2000
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
8,914
7,105
10,342
1,968
2,778
2,149
3,270
2,283
964
2,244
2,941
650
1,870
1,716
434
475
571
1,347
446
1,933
695
715
254
9,323
65,386
7,732
9,470
6,583
2,703
3,257
2,613
3,852
2,660
2,244
3,097
3,459
1,271
2,155
3,346
853
746
740
1,549
687
2,714
961
726
281
11,223
74,922
7,550
10,075
10,366
3,332
4,077
2,490
4,420
2,895
2,561
2,838
2,961
2,137
2,535
2,136
1,638
1,863
1,676
1,689
786
1,361
865
882
1,023
11,126
83,283
8,883
11,635
10,639
3,740
4,155
3,116
3,814
3,403
3,171
2,701
2,912
2,149
2,430
1,917
1,931
1,784
1,662
1,537
944
949
918
906
872
10,048
86,218
10,059
11,393
10,779
4,000
4,216
3,141
3,611
3,640
3,134
2,678
2,876
2,114
2,321
1,838
1,903
1,799
1,720
1,485
1,004
867
942
906
877
9,288
86,591
11,723
11,505
10,838
4,278
4,246
3,285
3,736
3,685
3,120
2,685
2,785
2,346
2,389
1,889
1,893
1,712
1,701
1,589
990
855
943
887
849
8,907
88,834
12,704
12,014
10,980
4,385
4,309
4,031
3,920
3,902
3,096
2,626
2,588
2,527
2,352
1,948
1,898
1,826
1,669
1,586
1,008
965
952
876
841
8,669
91,670
16,988
2,297
1,211
5,240
1,136
1,454
5,042
1,041
2,685
1,747
1,069
1,580
653
1,895
1,751
20,879
66,667
19,701
4,697
2,259
5,542
1,627
2,066
2,540
2,260
2,746
2,043
1,455
1,965
1,139
1,994
1,713
23,241
76,988
19,180
9,436
3,319
4,442
3,218
2,721
2,878
2,370
2,445
2,324
1,875
2,014
1,402
1,763
1,623
27,754
88,765
18,490
10,229
3,685
4,688
3,462
2,905
3,119
2,458
2,356
2,372
1,915
2,063
1,631
1,676
1,530
28,082
90,663
18,961
10,732
3,727
4,531
3,469
3,106
3,145
2,455
2,408
2,383
2,048
2,020
1,643
1,664
1,525
28,230
92,049
19,106
11,201
3,849
4,309
3,732
3,242
3,255
2,454
2,348
2,371
2,013
1,941
1,676
1,617
1,513
28,483
93,109
19,396
11,968
4,159
4,150
3,895
3,157
3,113
2,575
2,338
2,322
1,947
1,926
1,628
1,606
1,559
29,270
95,008
Source: BP Statistical Review.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Production includes crude oil and natural gas liquids but excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives
of coal and natural gas included in consumption.
43
44
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Fertilizers—Nitrogen
Annual Constant Prices (US$/mt)
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
800
800
600
600
Urea
400
400
Urea, constant 2010
200
200
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970
1,200
838
8,161
n/a
726
45
140
n/a
0
118
n/a
31
1,030
957
1,900
0
594
n/a
n/a
16,949
32,690
1980
9,993
2,164
12,053
n/a
1,755
958
572
295
138
401
n/a
72
1,290
1,624
2,380
15
743
n/a
n/a
28,500
62,951
Consumption (thousand tonnes nutrients)
China
India
United States
Brazil
Pakistan
Indonesia
Canada
France
Germany
Russian Federation
Mexico
Turkey
Australia
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Thailand
Ukraine
Egypt, Arab Rep.
United Kingdom
Others
World
2,987
1,310
7,363
276
264
184
323
1,425
1,642
n/a
406
243
123
166
99
50
n/a
331
880
13,351
31,423
Urea, nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Production (thousand tonnes nutrients)
China
India
United States
Russian Federation
Canada
Indonesia
Pakistan
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Ukraine
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Poland
Netherlands
Germany
Vietnam
Belgium
Belarus
Uzbekistan
Others
World
0
1970
11,787
3,522
10,818
886
843
851
946
2,146
2,303
n/a
878
782
248
129
266
136
n/a
554
1,240
22,157
60,493
1990
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
14,637
6,993
10,816
n/a
2,683
2,462
1,120
350
568
678
3,004
376
1,233
1,928
1,165
18
770
747
1,113
21,303
71,964
22,175
10,943
8,352
5,452
3,797
2,853
2,054
748
1,278
1,441
2,130
726
1,497
1,300
1,558
227
935
574
682
17,904
86,624
35,678
12,178
9,587
6,544
3,364
3,207
2,629
1,556
1,695
2,761
2,312
1,524
1,509
1,175
1,289
479
947
740
911
18,031
108,116
36,323
12,288
9,414
6,917
3,565
3,375
2,534
1,480
1,737
2,709
2,985
1,904
1,445
1,322
1,275
503
956
773
864
18,804
111,170
36,056
12,237
10,150
6,605
3,344
3,313
2,232
2,095
1,923
2,474
3,072
2,058
1,529
1,293
1,326
861
932
832
875
18,362
111,568
36,810
12,409
8,494
6,819
3,225
3,442
2,589
2,535
1,920
2,274
2,394
1,975
1,466
1,321
1,316
999
1,053
922
811
18,212
110,987
35,540
12,435
8,679
6,678
3,432
3,406
2,647
2,499
2,119
1,941
1,863
1,784
1,404
1,322
1,316
1,067
1,027
964
925
17,919
108,966
19,233
7,566
10,239
797
1,472
1,610
1,158
2,493
1,787
4,344
1,346
1,200
439
425
609
577
1,836
745
1,516
17,386
76,777
22,720
10,911
10,467
1,998
2,265
1,964
1,592
2,317
1,848
960
1,342
1,276
951
1,332
996
922
350
1,084
1,167
15,609
82,070
32,213
16,558
11,737
2,855
3,143
3,045
1,990
2,337
1,786
1,483
1,166
1,344
982
1,250
1,237
1,311
650
1,159
1,019
16,815
104,080
32,806
17,300
12,231
3,366
3,209
2,940
2,297
2,020
1,640
1,577
1,168
1,259
1,099
1,300
1,122
1,386
1,159
1,207
1,003
16,692
106,781
33,046
16,821
12,188
3,435
2,853
3,063
2,479
2,140
1,648
1,576
1,201
1,432
1,099
1,407
1,112
1,382
1,254
1,087
995
17,205
107,423
33,000
16,731
12,287
3,706
3,179
2,820
2,457
2,178
1,675
1,537
1,518
1,584
1,315
1,261
1,133
1,454
1,219
1,104
1,059
17,968
109,185
32,869
16,816
11,821
3,872
3,315
2,981
2,551
2,163
1,823
1,522
1,501
1,493
1,407
1,354
1,321
1,293
1,181
1,122
1,047
18,255
109,707
Sources: International Fertilizer Industry Association (http://ifadata.fertilizer.org/ucSearch.aspx).
Notes: n/a implies data not available. The statistics are based on the nutrient content. All production statistics are expressed on a calendar-year basis, while consumption
statistics are expressed either on a calendar- or on a fertilizer-year basis (see www.fertilizers.org for details).
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
45
Fertilizers—Phosphate and Potash
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Constant 2010 Prices (US$/mt)
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
DAP
800
DAP
600
600
400
400
200
Potassium chloride
200
Potassium chloride
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1980
1990
Phosphate: production (thousand tonnes nutrients)
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
China
United States
India
Russian Federation
Morocco
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Others
World
907
n/a
228
n/a
99
169
0
0
14,279
15,682
2,607
7,437
854
n/a
174
1,623
0
218
20,764
33,677
4,114
8,105
2,077
4,943
1,180
1,091
0
589
14,319
36,417
6,759
7,337
3,751
2,320
1,122
1,496
159
193
9,607
32,744
15,998
6,297
4,378
2,926
1,875
2,004
119
494
8,605
42,697
17,631
6,123
4,370
3,070
2,242
2,011
298
516
7,999
44,260
16,387
6,456
3,825
2,940
2,433
2,183
826
478
8,044
43,571
16,545
5,861
3,973
2,929
2,198
2,100
919
771
8,120
43,415
16,576
6,968
4,113
2,858
2,403
1,990
1,220
702
8,163
44,993
China
India
Brazil
United States
Pakistan
Indonesia
Canada
Australia
Others
World
907
305
416
4,671
31
45
326
757
13,743
21,202
2,952
1,091
1,965
4,926
227
274
634
853
18,990
31,912
5,770
3,125
1,202
3,811
389
581
578
579
19,887
35,920
8,664
4,248
2,544
3,862
675
263
634
1,107
10,815
32,812
12,100
8,050
3,384
3,890
767
500
723
817
10,338
40,569
12,300
7,914
3,860
3,946
633
584
799
873
10,637
41,546
12,400
6,653
4,325
4,289
747
695
831
803
10,772
41,515
11,480
5,695
4,641
4,337
881
963
887
816
11,568
41,268
11,400
5,976
4,752
4,061
975
974
937
909
11,380
41,364
Phosphate: consumption (thousand tonnes nutrients)
Potash: production (thousand tonnes nutrients)
Canada
Russian Federation
Belarus
China
Germany
Israel
Jordan
Chile
Others
World
3,179
n/a
n/a
n/a
4,824
576
0
21
8,871
17,471
7,337
n/a
n/a
20
6,123
797
0
23
13,307
27,608
7,005
n/a
4,992
46
4,967
1,296
842
41
3,649
22,838
9,174
3,716
3,372
275
3,409
1,748
1,162
408
2,878
26,141
10,289
6,128
5,223
3,101
2,962
1,944
1,166
850
2,043
33,706
9,919
6,526
5,332
3,390
3,106
1,700
1,355
923
2,482
34,733
9,877
5,403
4,831
4,007
3,056
2,100
1,094
1,241
2,409
34,019
9,461
6,086
4,229
4,565
2,968
2,150
1,047
1,187
2,821
34,514
10,636
7,340
6,286
5,680
3,053
2,126
1,255
1,239
2,670
40,285
China
Brazil
United States
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Belarus
Vietnam
Others
World
25
307
3,827
199
18
61
n/a
38
11,289
15,764
527
1,267
5,733
618
91
250
n/a
39
15,302
23,826
1,761
1,210
4,537
1,309
310
494
986
29
13,685
24,320
3,364
2,760
4,469
1,565
266
650
450
450
8,121
22,095
5,200
3,894
4,165
3,514
1,250
1,150
660
400
7,249
27,483
5,700
4,431
4,186
2,576
1,401
1,250
787
440
7,472
28,243
6,000
4,844
4,385
2,062
1,490
1,290
720
552
7,638
28,980
6,800
5,094
4,806
2,058
1,620
1,290
683
570
8,207
31,128
7,385
5,395
4,418
2,517
1,765
1,397
609
600
8,526
32,611
Potash: consumption (thousand tonnes nutrients)
Sources: International Fertilizer Industry Association (http://ifadata.fertilizer.org/ucSearch.aspx).
Notes: n/a implies data not available. The statistics are based on the nutrient content. All production statistics are expressed on a calendar-year basis, while consumption
statistics are expressed either on a calendar- or on a fertilizer-year basis (see www.fertilizers.org for details).
46
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Gold
Monthly Prices (US$/toz)
Annual Prices (US$/toz)
1,800
1,800
1,500
1,500
1,200
1,200
900
900
600
600
300
300
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Production (metric tons)
China
Australia
Russian Federation
United States
Canada
South Africa
Peru
Ghana
Mexico
Uzbekistan
Brazil
Argentina
Indonesia
Colombia
Papua New Guinea
Kazakhstan
Chile
Mali
Tanzania
Others
World
Fabrication (metric tons)
India
China
Turkey
United States
Japan
Italy
Russian Federation
South Korea
Switzerland
Indonesia
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Malaysia
Saudi Arabia
Germany
United Arab Emirates
Brazil
Canada
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Singapore
Others
World
Nominal
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Constant 2010
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1995
2000
2005
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
136
247
128
317
152
522
56
53
20
70
64
1
63
22
52
11
44
8
0
206
2,174
175
296
144
353
156
428
134
72
24
88
61
26
125
37
73
27
54
29
15
242
2,560
209
263
163
256
121
297
206
67
30
84
38
28
158
36
67
18
40
44
48
291
2,464
314
223
205
223
97
205
184
91
62
73
60
49
128
48
68
23
41
43
39
300
2,477
341
260
201
231
91
191
164
93
79
90
62
64
106
54
67
30
39
39
39
352
2,594
361
258
185
234
100
187
164
88
89
91
65
59
77
56
62
37
45
36
37
404
2,635
403
252
183
235
105
154
162
99
103
93
67
55
69
66
58
40
50
41
40
439
2,713
428
267
230
230
125
169
151
95
120
98
80
52
60
56
63
42
49
41
43
470
2,868
452
274
249
210
152
152
141
136
118
102
78
72
69
57
53
49
46
45
41
555
3,049
426
217
126
245
189
458
n/a
82
47
133
61
78
156
71
30
27
28
37
22
862
3,294
704
213
228
277
161
522
34
107
54
99
107
86
153
64
50
32
25
46
26
772
3,761
695
277
303
219
165
290
61
83
56
87
71
74
125
52
55
26
27
41
30
590
3,325
571
431
111
173
141
135
58
65
38
46
45
45
54
38
36
25
48
38
23
404
2,524
783
523
109
179
158
126
61
68
41
39
43
44
47
41
33
30
44
39
25
363
2,795
761
651
136
167
147
103
66
62
48
39
30
37
37
39
28
29
45
37
24
342
2,828
736
698
114
147
126
96
72
54
48
44
39
35
33
36
28
30
32
37
22
312
2,738
716
1,058
178
160
124
92
74
49
48
52
42
45
41
37
38
33
45
42
25
340
3,238
771
732
156
150
119
96
70
47
46
45
42
41
37
36
36
34
32
32
27
317
2,864
Sources: World Bureau of Metal Statistics and Thomson Reuters.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Fabrication includes the use of scrap. Fabrication of "Saudi Arabia" includes Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen in 1995 and
2000.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Iron Ore
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
Jan-04
Constant 2010
Nominal
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1971
1980
Iron ore production (million metric tons)
1990
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Australia
Brazil
China
India
Russian Federation
Ukraine
South Africa
United States
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Canada
Sweden
Mexico
Kazakhstan
Chile
Mauritania
Peru
Mongolia
Malaysia
Turkey
Venezuela, RB
Liberia
Others
World
62
38
55
34
n/a
n/a
10
82
n/a
43
34
5
n/a
11
8
9
0
1
2
20
23
n/a
781
99
113
113
41
n/a
n/a
n/a
71
n/a
49
27
8
n/a
9
9
6
0
0
3
14
18
n/a
931
109
152
148
54
n/a
n/a
30
55
2
37
20
9
n/a
8
11
3
0
0
6
20
4
n/a
984
176
209
105
75
87
56
34
63
12
36
21
11
15
8
11
4
0
0
4
17
0
14
959
433
372
359
209
99
79
55
50
33
38
25
14
18
10
11
9
3
3
6
14
0
30
1,870
477
397
345
192
104
81
53
55
36
37
26
13
18
12
11
10
6
8
6
20
1
36
1,944
520
380
336
153
103
81
59
54
39
39
27
15
17
12
12
11
6
8
7
15
3
36
1,931
609
391
266
136
102
84
61
52
48
42
27
19
19
12
13
7
7
14
8
8
4
47
1,977
724
399
193
130
101
82
67
54
48
44
28
17
16
13
13
11
10
9
7
6
5
23
2,001
China
Japan
United States
India
Korea, Rep.
Russian Federation
Germany
Turkey
Brazil
Ukraine
Italy
Taiwan, China
Mexico
Iran, Islamic Rep.
France
Spain
Canada
Others
World
21
89
109
6
0
n/a
40
1
6
n/a
17
0
4
0
23
8
11
n/a
583
37
111
101
10
9
n/a
44
3
15
n/a
27
3
7
1
23
13
16
n/a
716
66
110
90
15
23
n/a
38
9
21
n/a
25
10
9
1
19
13
12
n/a
770
129
106
102
27
43
59
46
14
28
32
27
17
16
7
21
16
17
143
849
639
110
80
69
59
67
44
29
33
33
26
20
17
12
15
16
13
151
1,433
702
108
86
73
69
69
44
34
35
35
29
20
18
13
16
16
13
158
1,538
731
107
89
77
69
70
43
36
35
33
27
21
18
14
16
14
14
147
1,560
822
111
87
81
66
69
43
35
34
33
24
22
18
15
16
14
12
148
1,650
823
111
88
87
72
71
43
34
34
27
24
23
19
16
16
14
13
155
1,670
Crude steel production (million metric tons)
Source: Steel Statistical Yearbook.
Notes: n/a implies data not available.
47
48
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Lead
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
3,000
4,000
2,500
Constant 2010
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
1980
1990
Mine Production (thousand metric tons)
160
398
562
189
146
n/a
15
72
16
48
8
125
12
n/a
3,595
364
570
493
188
174
n/a
26
84
20
45
18
70
9
n/a
3,150
Refined Production (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Korea, Rep.
India
Germany
United Kingdom
Mexico
Canada
Japan
Australia
Italy
Spain
Brazil
Others
World
175
1,151
15
26
392
325
149
231
305
234
134
121
85
2,083
5,424
297
1,291
80
39
394
329
238
184
327
229
171
124
76
1,683
5,460
Refined Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Korea, Rep.
India
Germany
Japan
Italy
Spain
Brazil
Others
World
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
China
Australia
United States
Peru
Mexico
Russian Federation
India
Sweden
Bolivia
Poland
Turkey
Korea, Dem. People’s Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Others
World
Nominal
210
1,094
54
33
433
393
275
111
83
2,663
5,348
244
1,275
80
147
448
416
258
115
75
2,290
5,348
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
660
678
447
271
138
13
38
107
10
51
16
26
17
610
3,080
1,142
767
437
319
134
36
60
61
11
51
19
20
22
372
3,453
1,981
712
356
262
192
97
91
68
73
48
39
27
32
396
4,374
2,613
639
336
249
238
151
115
64
81
73
54
38
36
427
5,115
2,697
711
343
266
253
165
106
60
82
74
78
59
40
384
5,317
2,853
728
385
278
250
194
105
71
76
77
65
45
45
388
5,561
2,340
689
375
316
254
188
139
79
79
77
77
48
46
352
5,059
1,100
1,431
222
57
387
328
332
284
312
223
237
120
86
1,582
6,701
2,359
1,293
254
56
342
304
272
230
275
267
211
110
121
1,572
7,665
4,157
1,255
321
366
405
301
317
273
267
210
150
163
115
1,531
9,832
4,591
1,221
460
461
426
312
334
279
259
206
138
160
165
1,572
10,585
4,935
1,308
522
462
400
296
321
284
252
233
180
160
152
1,675
11,180
4,740
1,120
670
477
380
267
313
282
240
226
210
162
160
1,670
10,917
3,858
1,127
616
442
377
351
310
269
232
223
210
162
160
1,768
10,106
660
1,660
309
56
390
343
283
219
155
2,416
6,491
1,974
1,490
376
139
330
291
262
279
189
2,447
7,777
4,171
1,430
382
420
343
224
245
262
201
2,130
9,807
4,618
1,360
429
524
381
273
195
244
238
2,126
10,388
4,927
1,750
550
428
392
252
235
257
234
2,195
11,222
4,718
1,670
601
521
337
254
258
245
229
2,121
10,955
3,816
1,608
536
484
357
263
232
228
224
2,227
9,976
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Refined production and consumption include significant recyled material.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Maize
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Constant 2010
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Production (million metric tons)
105.5
33.0
14.1
29.8
9.9
n/a
8.9
7.5
n/a
8.6
2.6
2.8
2.0
73.1
297.9
Stocks (million metric tons)
China
United States
Brazil
Mexico
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Others
World
8.9
16.8
2.0
0.5
0.0
7.9
36.1
Exports (million metric tons)
United States
Brazil
Argentina
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Paraguay
Serbia
Others
World
12.9
0.9
6.4
n/a
n/a
0.0
0.0
11.9
32.2
Imports (million metric tons)
Japan
Mexico
European Union
Korea, Rep.
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Vietnam
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Others
World
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1970/71
United States
China
Brazil
European Union
Argentina
Ukraine
Mexico
India
Russian Federation
South Africa
Canada
Indonesia
Philippines
Others
World
0
1970
Jan-16
5.2
0.1
18.9
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
22.6
47.3
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
168.6
62.6
22.6
42.5
12.9
n/a
10.4
7.0
n/a
14.9
5.8
4.0
3.1
96.9
451.3
201.5
96.8
24.3
36.5
7.7
4.7
14.1
9.0
2.5
8.6
7.1
5.0
5.1
95.4
518.4
251.9
106.0
41.5
51.8
15.4
3.8
17.9
12.0
1.5
8.0
7.0
5.9
4.5
64.4
591.7
315.6
177.2
57.4
58.6
25.2
11.9
21.1
21.7
3.1
10.9
12.0
6.8
7.3
107.0
835.9
351.3
218.5
80.0
64.9
26.0
30.9
22.9
24.3
11.6
14.9
14.2
9.1
7.5
114.7
990.8
361.1
215.6
85.0
75.8
28.7
28.5
25.5
24.2
11.3
10.6
11.5
9.0
7.7
119.9
1014.4
345.5
224.6
67.0
58.5
28.0
23.3
25.8
21.8
13.2
7.9
13.6
9.3
7.5
113.2
959.1
382.5
216.0
83.5
60.3
36.5
26.0
24.5
24.5
14.0
13.0
12.5
9.6
7.9
114.9
1025.7
42.8
35.4
1.3
2.0
0.1
20.9
102.5
82.8
38.6
0.8
1.8
0.0
17.4
141.4
102.4
48.2
2.7
2.8
0.9
18.3
175.3
49.4
28.6
6.3
1.1
2.8
35.3
123.6
81.3
31.3
14.0
2.6
4.5
41.6
175.3
100.5
44.0
7.8
4.1
5.7
46.8
208.9
110.7
44.1
5.3
5.8
6.1
38.0
210.1
103.7
58.9
5.9
5.8
5.3
37.1
216.8
60.7
0.0
9.1
n/a
n/a
0.0
0.0
10.5
80.3
43.9
0.0
4.0
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
9.8
58.4
49.3
6.3
9.7
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
10.5
76.7
46.5
8.4
16.3
5.0
0.0
1.6
2.0
11.4
91.3
48.8
21.0
17.1
20.0
4.2
2.4
1.8
16.0
131.2
47.4
34.5
18.9
19.7
3.2
3.3
3.0
11.8
141.7
48.2
16.5
19.5
16.5
4.4
2.3
1.6
10.5
119.5
56.5
25.5
25.0
17.7
4.5
2.3
2.2
10.1
143.8
14.0
3.8
26.6
2.4
1.0
0.1
0.4
52.6
100.9
16.3
1.9
5.7
5.6
1.9
0.0
0.8
32.0
64.3
16.3
6.0
3.7
8.7
5.3
0.1
1.3
33.5
74.9
15.6
8.3
7.4
8.1
5.8
1.3
3.5
42.7
92.7
15.1
10.9
16.0
10.4
8.7
3.5
5.5
54.9
125.1
14.7
11.3
8.6
10.2
7.8
5.0
6.1
61.2
124.9
15.0
13.8
13.4
10.3
8.5
8.0
6.6
63.1
138.7
15.0
13.8
13.5
10.0
8.8
6.5
6.0
60.1
133.6
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Notes: n/a implies data not available. The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971.
49
50
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Natural gas
Monthly Prices (US$/mmbtu)
Annual Constant Prices (US$/mmbtu)
20
20
Japan
Japan
15
15
10
10
Europe
Europe
5
5
US
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Production (billion cubic metres)
595
n/a
4
1
57
3
0
2
3
1
n/a
0
2
n/a
1
11
0
0
27
3
0
10
2
n/a
992
Consumption (billion cubic metres)
United States
Russian Federation
China
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Japan
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Mexico
Germany
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
Italy
Thailand
India
Uzbekistan
Others
World
Source: BP Statistical Review.
Note: n/a implies data not available.
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1970
United States
Russian Federation
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Qatar
Canada
China
Norway
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Indonesia
Turkmenistan
Malaysia
Australia
Uzbekistan
United Arab Emirates
Mexico
Nigeria
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Netherlands
Pakistan
Thailand
United Kingdom
Trinidad and Tobago
Others
World
US
0
1980
Jan-16
599
n/a
3
3
3
2
36
10
15
1
11
14
0
1
n/a
n/a
979
1980
1990
2000
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
549
n/a
5
5
75
15
25
10
15
19
n/a
2
11
n/a
8
26
2
2
76
7
0
35
3
n/a
1,435
504
590
26
6
109
16
25
34
49
44
79
17
20
37
20
27
4
8
61
12
7
45
5
235
1,982
543
529
60
25
182
28
50
50
88
70
43
47
32
51
38
38
12
21
58
22
20
108
16
292
2,421
604
589
152
131
160
99
107
88
80
86
42
61
53
54
51
58
37
61
70
42
36
57
45
444
3,209
681
592
166
157
156
112
115
99
82
77
62
61
56
57
54
57
43
61
64
44
41
39
43
443
3,363
685
605
167
178
156
122
109
100
82
76
62
67
58
57
55
58
36
56
69
43
42
36
43
449
3,411
729
582
182
174
162
132
109
102
83
75
69
67
61
57
54
57
45
49
56
42
42
37
42
455
3,463
767
573
192
181
164
138
117
106
83
75
72
68
67
58
56
53
50
46
43
42
40
40
40
467
3,539
563
n/a
15
5
24
10
52
23
58
5
45
25
0
1
n/a
n/a
1,433
543
408
16
24
48
34
67
28
61
17
52
43
7
12
36
562
1,956
661
360
25
63
72
50
93
41
79
31
97
65
22
26
46
691
2,422
682
414
111
153
95
88
95
72
84
61
94
76
45
61
41
1,029
3,201
723
416
151
162
117
99
100
80
77
66
74
68
51
58
47
1,043
3,333
741
413
172
163
117
100
104
83
81
67
73
64
52
50
47
1,065
3,393
756
412
188
180
118
102
104
87
71
66
67
56
53
51
49
1,050
3,410
778
391
197
191
113
106
102
83
75
69
68
61
53
51
50
1,078
3,469
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Natural rubber
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
Annual Prices (US$/kg)
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
Constant 2010
2
2
1
1
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970
Production (thousand metric tons)
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
China
Malaysia
India
Côte d’Ivoire
Myanmar
Others
World
287
815
28
46
1,269
90
11
10
584
3,140
250
991
86
568
283
8
25
20
37
26
796
3,090
Exports (thousand metric tons)
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Malaysia
Côte d’Ivoire
Others
World
279
790
23
1,304
11
413
2,820
Imports (thousand metric tons)
China
European Union
Malaysia
United States
Japan
India
Korea, Rep.
Brazil
Others
World
178
1,071
45
543
292
3
26
11
641
2,810
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
501
822
46
113
1,530
155
23
16
644
3,850
1,275
1,261
94
264
1,291
324
69
15
392
4,985
2,346
1,501
291
445
928
629
123
36
513
6,811
3,252
2,736
752
687
939
851
231
128
827
10,403
3,778
3,012
877
802
923
919
254
164
929
11,658
4,170
3,237
949
865
827
796
289
177
971
12,281
4,324
3,153
954
840
668
705
317
198
977
12,136
4,473
3,145
1,017
794
722
575
351
212
989
12,278
340
1,007
171
585
427
28
46
45
81
118
932
3,780
600
1,012
358
808
677
99
108
184
124
255
845
5,068
1,150
1,293
638
1,195
752
243
139
364
227
332
975
7,306
3,622
1,136
944
926
749
487
421
458
378
384
1,253
10,759
3,890
1,076
988
950
728
505
465
441
343
396
1,264
11,046
4,270
1,060
962
913
710
521
509
434
409
396
1,246
11,430
4,804
1,139
1,015
932
709
541
540
447
422
402
1,230
12,181
4,680
1,159
987
936
691
601
579
475
405
388
1,246
12,146
457
976
33
1,482
23
299
3,270
1,151
1,077
80
1,322
69
263
3,962
2,166
1,380
273
978
121
359
5,277
2,866
2,369
782
1,245
226
558
8,047
3,175
2,525
1,023
1,291
255
602
8,871
3,752
2,770
1,076
1,332
285
672
9,887
3,729
2,662
1,066
1,192
323
882
9,854
3,776
2,680
1,138
1,119
348
1,147
10,208
242
1,068
43
576
458
1
118
56
673
3,235
340
1,072
136
820
663
61
254
95
1,328
4,769
820
1,474
548
1,192
801
11
331
139
1,065
6,380
2,888
1,427
706
931
747
187
388
249
1,157
8,681
3,426
1,459
871
969
700
250
397
181
1,307
9,561
3,975
1,451
1,005
927
722
336
396
224
1,236
10,271
4,096
1,546
914
946
689
424
403
230
1,251
10,499
4,200
1,536
955
952
682
414
388
208
1,354
10,689
Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
European Union
India
United States
Japan
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brazil
Korea, Rep.
Others
World
Nominal
Source: International Rubber Study Group (July-September 2016 update).
51
52
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Nickel
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
50,000
60,000
Constant 2010
40,000
45,000
30,000
30,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1990
2000
Mine Production (thousand metric tons)
38
n/a
189
74
87
41
11
3
26
38
0
7
0
n/a
749
16
n/a
196
67
85
69
33
13
30
41
0
0
0
n/a
888
Refined Production (thousand metric tons)
China
Russian Federation
Japan
Canada
Australia
Norway
New Caledonia
Brazil
Madagascar
Finland
United Kingdom
Korea, Rep.
Colombia
Others
World
11
n/a
109
145
35
37
33
3
0
13
19
0
0
n/a
743
28
n/a
103
127
43
58
32
13
0
17
27
0
18
n/a
858
Refined Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
Japan
United States
Taiwan, China
Korea, Rep.
Italy
Germany
India
Belgium
Others
World
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Note: n/a implies data not available.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1980
Philippines
Russian Federation
Canada
Australia
New Caledonia
Indonesia
China
Brazil
South Africa
Cuba
Madagascar
Guatemala
Colombia
Others
World
0
1970
18
122
142
0
0
27
78
12
4
315
717
28
159
127
18
24
27
93
14
21
330
842
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
17
266
191
170
129
117
51
32
37
71
0
0
28
82
1,191
27
289
200
186
112
156
59
38
42
74
0
0
53
120
1,356
184
274
160
170
130
216
80
54
40
65
0
0
49
95
1,518
318
269
212
244
132
622
93
90
46
65
6
2
52
117
2,266
316
264
223
256
150
811
93
74
51
62
25
9
49
118
2,504
411
264
235
245
178
146
92
86
55
50
37
36
41
131
2,006
317
264
235
220
186
106
92
83
57
49
47
46
37
145
1,884
52
242
161
134
112
59
44
23
0
54
38
0
28
164
1,110
97
264
164
140
122
85
47
30
0
41
38
0
53
208
1,288
314
263
166
105
102
92
40
28
0
49
32
23
49
174
1,437
591
254
170
152
129
92
45
59
6
46
39
24
52
200
1,858
711
242
178
153
142
91
48
56
25
44
42
28
49
194
2,005
644
239
178
151
138
91
62
73
37
43
39
25
41
186
1,946
575
233
193
163
128
91
78
72
47
43
39
37
37
181
1,916
58
192
153
106
91
53
102
23
32
342
1,150
197
180
128
84
118
85
116
16
50
344
1,317
489
177
119
73
101
62
100
27
21
257
1,427
805
159
126
57
108
65
89
33
19
275
1,734
909
159
123
53
107
59
66
37
26
259
1,798
761
157
152
66
100
60
62
27
29
285
1,700
964
159
152
87
83
60
60
37
35
295
1,933
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Palm oil and Soybean oil
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Constant Prices (US$/mt)
2,200
1,700
Soybean oil
1,400
1,800
1,400
1,100
Soybean oil
1,000
800
Palm oil
500
600
200
Jan-04
200
1970
Palm oil
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970/71
1980/81
248
589
0
36
432
5
0
0
21
0
591
1,922
1
29
595
53
1
8
1,707
2,394
181
3,749
0
0
1,260
2
52
10
2,205
7,459
179
2,854
0
79
0
1,170
52
40
2,754
7,128
2020
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2,650
6,031
200
252
600
150
64
145
24
6
912
11,034
8,300
11,937
580
520
730
222
148
336
108
124
1,234
24,239
23,600
18,211
1,832
753
971
380
320
488
426
231
1,980
49,192
30,500
20,161
2,000
1,041
970
497
460
500
493
434
2,218
59,274
33,000
19,879
2,068
1,110
970
477
470
520
495
448
2,196
61,633
32,000
17,700
2,100
1,273
970
500
490
580
500
470
2,259
58,842
35,000
20,000
2,300
1,280
970
560
545
522
520
515
2,283
64,495
259
1,330
1,509
1,194
800
914
6,658
12,664
4,100
3,263
2,790
2,028
1,245
1,571
8,603
23,600
7,090
6,269
5,110
5,797
2,050
2,204
19,018
47,538
8,452
8,750
6,850
5,700
2,490
2,869
22,944
58,055
9,250
7,420
6,730
5,700
2,690
2,941
23,665
58,396
9,600
8,570
6,600
4,750
3,045
3,144
24,593
60,302
10,400
9,100
6,520
5,150
3,245
3,170
25,716
63,301
3,240
8,355
3,190
4,333
3,033
805
795
174
2,887
26,812
9,840
8,568
7,181
6,970
2,362
1,691
648
300
3,921
41,481
12,335
9,131
6,785
7,070
2,501
1,460
720
640
4,448
45,090
13,347
9,706
7,687
7,760
2,553
1,210
745
697
5,328
49,033
14,569
9,961
8,415
7,660
2,698
1,059
775
705
5,804
51,646
15,501
10,217
8,440
7,750
2,810
1,353
800
725
6,296
53,892
3,542
7,401
2,932
2,080
247
2,186
863
503
6,693
26,447
11,409
7,506
5,205
2,655
2,520
2,530
840
388
7,649
40,702
13,650
8,576
5,705
3,309
2,729
1,908
890
530
7,871
45,168
14,200
8,600
6,265
4,056
2,501
1,970
1,001
650
8,683
47,926
15,300
9,117
6,265
5,100
2,580
2,000
1,050
710
9,276
51,398
16,200
9,320
6,320
5,000
2,815
2,000
1,075
825
9,684
53,239
752
2,692
19
80
520
44
18
45
19
0
707
4,896
431
561
607
16
231
420
3,104
5,370
183
5,112
158
2,601
2,478
69
255
6
4,191
15,053
599
6,082
1,179
2,669
2,317
425
330
56
4,425
18,082
Soybean oil: consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Brazil
India
Argentina
European Union
Mexico
Bangladesh
Others
World
2010
2010/11
Soybean oil: production (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Argentina
Brazil
European Union
India
Mexico
Paraguay
Others
World
2000
2000/01
Palm oil: consumption (thousand metric tons)
India
Indonesia
European Union
China
Pakistan
Malaysia
Others
World
1990
1990/91
Palm oil: production (thousand metric tons)
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Colombia
Nigeria
Ecuador
Honduras
Papua New Guinea
Ghana
Guatemala
Others
World
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
256
4,134
1,490
708
56
1,926
305
28
5,435
14,338
1,055
5,506
2,075
445
101
1,879
404
235
5,613
17,313
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Notes: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971.
53
54
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Platinum
Monthly Prices (US$/toz)
Annual Prices (US$/toz)
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
Constant 2010
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Old jewelery scrap (metric tons)
China
Japan
North America
Europe
Others
World
TOTAL SUPPLY (metric tons)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2003
2005
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
146.1
25.9
4.3
4.6
4.2
2.3
187.4
157.2
29.9
5.0
7.2
3.9
2.8
206.0
145.4
25.8
5.6
7.1
3.6
4.0
191.5
143.2
24.7
7.1
5.3
3.8
4.0
188.1
147.7
24.4
8.9
4.0
3.5
3.8
192.3
147.3
25.4
10.6
8.4
3.7
3.7
199.1
130.3
25.0
10.4
6.9
3.7
4.2
180.5
133.3
23.8
12.7
6.8
3.7
4.8
185.1
95.2
22.3
12.4
7.7
3.7
4.8
146.1
3.9
15.1
2.1
n/a
1.8
22.9
5.4
15.6
1.7
0.1
2.3
25.1
9.2
17.3
2.1
0.2
2.5
31.3
8.0
12.2
1.7
0.3
2.2
24.4
9.3
14.0
1.9
0.4
2.5
28.1
10.8
14.8
1.7
0.5
3.1
30.9
9.7
12.8
1.8
0.7
3.8
28.8
11.6
14.4
1.8
0.9
3.9
32.6
13.4
12.1
2.1
1.1
4.1
32.8
0.9
4.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
5.2
215.5
5.1
6.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
11.5
242.6
10.4
18.0
1.3
0.4
0.0
30.1
252.8
5.5
8.5
1.0
0.4
0.0
15.4
228.0
6.7
8.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
16.2
236.6
7.5
10.7
0.3
0.2
0.1
18.8
248.9
7.3
8.0
0.3
0.2
0.1
15.9
225.2
7.3
7.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
15.3
233.0
7.8
7.6
0.3
0.2
0.2
16.1
195.0
Autocatalyst scrap (metric tons)
Europe
North America
Japan
China
Others
World
Nominal
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Mine production (metric tons)
South Africa
Russian Federation
Zimbabwe
Canada
United States
Others
World
0
1970
Autocatalyst demand (metric tons)
Europe
North America
China
Japan
Others
World
41.3
26.8
4.7
16.6
8.0
97.4
56.1
23.3
5.5
18.1
12.5
115.5
56.2
17.5
5.8
16.1
13.9
109.5
39.8
10.8
5.9
9.6
11.9
78.0
43.9
12.0
6.9
11.4
17.1
91.3
46.2
14.1
6.2
9.4
19.0
94.9
39.5
14.3
5.8
10.0
21.0
90.6
38.5
14.4
7.0
9.0
21.2
90.1
40.0
14.0
8.8
8.7
21.9
93.4
China
Japan
North America
Europe
Others
World
46.1
21.3
9.9
8.5
2.4
88.2
35.0
20.5
8.1
7.9
1.2
72.7
34.5
7.7
6.4
7.4
1.4
57.4
60.8
8.4
5.6
6.9
1.6
83.3
44.8
8.1
6.6
6.8
2.2
68.5
49.4
8.8
6.8
6.7
2.6
74.3
54.0
9.9
7.0
6.6
3.3
80.8
55.2
10.2
7.3
6.6
3.4
82.7
52.3
10.0
7.6
6.4
3.6
79.9
15.8
11.1
n/a
9.9
14.0
50.8
236.4
15.8
9.5
4.7
13.2
14.0
57.2
245.4
15.2
10.1
9.1
18.2
18.4
71.0
237.9
14.7
8.9
1.0
9.0
15.0
48.6
209.9
12.2
10.1
10.1
10.2
20.7
63.3
223.1
12.5
9.7
7.5
13.5
20.9
64.1
233.3
14.3
10.3
11.3
11.0
13.7
60.6
232.0
13.9
9.7
10.9
1.7
13.5
49.7
222.5
14.7
10.8
8.4
2.7
16.7
53.3
226.6
Jewelery demand (metric tons)
Other demand (metric tons)
North America
Europe
China
Japan
Others
World
TOTAL DEMAND (metric tons)
Sources: Platinum & Palladium Survey, Thomson Reuters.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Rice
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
1,000
1,500
800
1,200
600
900
400
600
200
300
Constant 2010
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970/71
China
India
Thailand
Indonesia
Japan
United States
Others
World
2000
2010
2020
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
97.9
53.6
22.3
13.9
7.7
11.5
6.7
5.0
5.9
8.9
4.8
3.1
1.1
27.6
269.9
132.5
74.3
29.0
17.9
12.4
11.3
7.9
6.4
6.8
9.6
5.1
3.3
1.6
33.3
351.4
131.5
85.0
33.0
25.1
20.5
17.1
10.8
8.1
6.9
8.6
5.9
4.8
2.5
39.4
399.2
137.0
96.0
35.5
31.7
26.4
20.3
11.1
10.5
9.3
7.8
7.6
4.8
4.2
48.3
450.4
142.5
106.6
36.3
34.4
28.2
20.5
12.0
11.9
8.3
7.9
6.1
6.8
4.7
52.3
478.4
144.6
105.5
35.6
34.5
28.2
18.8
12.6
11.9
8.5
7.8
7.1
6.9
4.7
52.2
478.7
145.8
104.3
36.2
34.5
27.5
15.8
12.2
11.4
7.2
7.7
6.1
6.7
4.7
52.1
472.1
146.5
106.5
36.6
34.5
27.8
18.6
12.5
12.0
8.0
7.7
7.5
6.9
4.7
53.4
483.3
28.0
6.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
0.5
8.5
52.6
94.0
14.5
0.9
2.1
1.0
0.8
13.4
126.7
93.0
25.0
2.2
4.6
2.6
0.9
18.3
146.7
42.6
23.5
5.6
7.1
2.9
1.5
16.8
100.0
53.1
22.8
12.0
5.5
3.0
1.0
16.6
114.0
57.4
17.8
10.8
4.1
2.8
1.6
20.1
114.6
63.7
17.8
7.9
3.5
2.5
1.5
18.7
115.6
70.9
17.3
6.6
3.7
2.1
1.9
18.2
120.7
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.2
1.5
5.2
8.5
0.9
3.0
0.0
1.2
3.1
4.2
12.4
0.7
4.0
1.0
1.3
2.3
2.8
12.1
1.7
7.5
3.5
2.4
2.6
6.2
24.0
2.8
10.6
7.0
3.4
3.5
7.8
35.1
10.6
11.0
6.3
4.0
3.0
8.1
43.0
12.2
9.8
6.6
3.8
3.1
8.1
43.6
10.3
9.2
5.4
4.2
3.4
7.6
40.1
10.0
9.5
5.8
4.2
3.6
8.2
41.2
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.4
6.5
8.6
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.2
9.4
11.8
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
8.7
11.3
0.3
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.4
0.5
0.6
14.4
22.1
0.5
2.4
1.4
1.1
3.1
1.3
0.9
1.1
21.3
33.1
4.0
2.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.8
1.0
24.6
38.6
4.7
2.6
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.3
1.1
25.0
41.1
4.8
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.0
23.1
38.3
5.0
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
23.7
38.7
11.0
6.0
1.2
0.6
6.1
0.6
3.4
28.8
Exports (million metric tons)
India
Thailand
Vietnam
Pakistan
United States
Others
World
Imports (million metric tons)
China
Nigeria
European Union
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Philippines
Cote d’Ivoire
Malaysia
Others
World
1990
1980/81
77.0
42.2
13.1
11.1
6.4
9.0
5.1
3.4
3.7
11.5
2.8
2.2
2.5
22.9
213.0
Stocks (million metric tons)
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Production (million metric tons)
China
India
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Thailand
Myanmar
Philippines
Brazil
Japan
United States
Pakistan
Cambodia
Others
World
0
1970
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Notes: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971.
55
56
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Silver
Monthly Prices (US$/toz)
Annual Prices (US$/toz)
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
Constant 2010
10
10
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Production (metric tons)
Mexico
Peru
China
Australia
Chile
Russian Federation
Bolivia
Poland
United States
Kazakhstan
Argentina
Guatemala
Canada
Sweden
India
Morocco
Turkey
Finland
Dominican Republic
Others
World
Fabrication (metric tons)
India
China
Italy
Thailand
United States
Mexico
Russian Federation
Indonesia
Turkey
South Korea
Germany
Brazil
Japan
France
Vietnam
Israel
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Spain
Bangladesh
Others
World
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1995
2000
2005
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2,334
1,881
1,000
920
1,036
250
425
1,001
1,565
371
48
0
1,285
268
38
204
70
29
21
1,436
14,183
2,483
2,418
1,600
2,060
1,245
400
434
1,164
2,017
927
78
0
1,204
329
40
290
110
24
n/a
1,372
18,194
2,894
3,193
2,500
2,417
1,400
1,350
420
1,262
1,230
883
264
7
1,124
310
32
186
80
47
n/a
1,099
20,697
3,554
3,854
2,900
1,633
1,301
1,313
1,326
1,207
1,250
618
533
129
631
289
138
210
352
70
19
1,002
22,328
4,411
3,640
3,085
1,880
1,276
1,145
1,259
1,183
1,280
552
723
195
596
302
165
243
348
65
23
1,069
23,440
4,778
3,414
3,232
1,725
1,311
1,134
1,214
1,167
1,120
651
641
273
572
302
203
227
292
73
19
1,042
23,389
5,358
3,481
3,639
1,728
1,151
1,400
1,207
1,149
1,060
963
750
205
705
309
374
230
236
128
23
1,088
25,185
5,821
3,674
3,673
1,840
1,174
1,412
1,287
1,403
1,050
964
768
284
618
341
367
255
187
101
80
1,061
26,362
5,766
3,777
3,673
1,847
1,572
1,412
1,345
1,200
1,160
982
905
857
493
401
338
277
187
148
128
954
27,422
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,333
1,054
1,230
1,145
487
511
138
140
258
147
213
50
64
55
32
59
50
61
46
886
7,959
1,164
1,457
806
946
362
355
263
150
175
150
166
57
65
59
40
46
44
41
45
784
7,175
1,233
1,681
802
947
400
344
291
168
153
167
169
64
70
64
45
42
43
37
43
774
7,537
1,194
1,952
599
798
370
450
240
190
134
179
159
50
69
73
49
32
40
37
41
683
7,339
1,196
2,029
540
662
342
428
228
207
139
183
147
50
72
67
50
29
37
32
40
676
7,154
2,248
2,266
559
692
381
281
225
215
162
186
134
94
75
56
49
34
39
29
28
674
8,427
3,058
1,642
614
611
419
261
223
206
192
167
131
82
70
54
52
37
34
30
30
667
8,580
Sources: World Bureau of Metal Statistics and Thomson Reuters.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Fabrication: jewelry and silverware including the use of scrap.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Soybeans
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
1,000
800
800
600
600
Constant 2010
400
400
200
200
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Production (million metric tons)
30.7
0.0
0.0
8.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
n/a
0.0
0.0
2.4
42.1
Crushings (million metric tons)
China
United States
Argentina
Brazil
European Union
India
Mexico
Russian Federation
Paraguay
Bolivia
Others
World
1.5
20.7
0.0
0.0
7.3
0.0
0.3
n/a
0.1
0.0
12.7
42.5
Exports (million metric tons)
Brazil
United States
Argentina
Paraguay
Canada
Others
World
0.0
11.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
12.3
Imports (million metric tons)
China
European Union
Mexico
Japan
Thailand
Taiwan, China
Indonesia
Others
World
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1970/71
United States
Brazil
Argentina
China
India
Paraguay
Canada
Ukraine
Bolivia
Uruguay
Others
World
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Nominal
0.0
7.4
0.1
3.2
0.0
0.5
0.0
8.8
20.0
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
48.9
15.2
3.5
7.9
0.4
0.6
0.7
n/a
0.0
0.0
3.5
80.9
52.4
15.8
11.5
11.0
2.6
1.3
1.3
0.1
0.4
0.0
7.9
104.3
75.1
39.5
27.8
15.4
5.3
3.5
2.7
0.1
1.2
0.0
5.4
175.8
90.7
75.3
49.0
15.1
10.1
7.1
4.4
1.7
2.3
1.9
6.7
264.3
91.4
86.7
53.4
12.0
9.5
8.2
5.4
2.8
2.4
3.3
7.5
282.5
106.9
97.2
61.4
12.2
8.7
8.2
6.0
3.9
2.7
3.3
9.4
319.8
106.9
96.5
56.8
11.6
7.1
9.0
6.2
3.9
3.1
2.0
9.9
313.0
116.2
102.0
57.0
12.5
9.7
9.2
6.0
4.0
3.1
3.0
10.5
333.2
1.5
27.8
0.9
13.8
14.1
0.4
1.5
n/a
0.0
0.0
23.8
83.9
3.9
32.3
7.0
14.2
13.0
2.4
1.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
24.1
99.7
18.9
44.6
17.3
22.7
16.8
4.5
4.5
0.4
0.9
0.9
15.0
146.4
55.0
44.9
37.6
36.3
12.2
9.5
3.6
2.1
1.6
1.8
17.5
222.0
68.9
47.2
36.2
36.9
13.4
8.2
4.0
3.4
3.4
2.3
18.6
242.3
74.5
51.0
40.0
40.4
13.6
6.8
4.2
3.7
3.7
2.5
22.9
263.2
81.3
51.3
43.3
39.9
14.4
6.0
4.4
4.0
3.7
2.8
24.9
275.9
86.5
53.1
44.3
40.5
13.8
7.6
4.5
4.0
3.8
2.8
27.6
288.5
1.8
19.7
2.7
0.6
0.1
0.4
25.3
2.5
15.2
4.5
1.0
0.2
2.1
25.4
15.5
27.1
7.3
2.5
0.7
0.7
53.8
30.0
41.0
9.2
5.2
2.9
3.4
91.7
46.8
44.6
7.8
4.8
3.5
5.2
112.7
50.6
50.1
10.6
4.5
3.9
6.5
126.2
54.4
52.7
10.3
5.3
4.3
5.6
132.5
58.4
55.1
9.7
5.3
4.0
6.3
138.8
0.5
13.6
1.4
4.2
0.0
1.1
0.4
18.7
39.8
0.0
13.2
1.4
4.4
0.0
2.2
0.5
17.1
38.8
13.2
17.7
4.4
4.8
1.3
2.3
1.1
8.3
53.1
52.3
12.5
3.5
2.9
2.1
2.5
1.9
12.0
89.8
70.4
13.3
3.8
2.9
1.8
2.3
2.2
16.3
113.1
78.4
13.4
3.8
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.0
18.4
123.9
82.5
14.2
4.1
3.3
2.8
2.6
2.3
20.0
131.7
86.0
13.0
4.2
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.4
22.3
136.2
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Notes: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971.
57
58
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Sugar
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
Annual Prices (US$/kg)
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
India
China
Thailand
Pakistan
United States
Mexico
Others
World
Exports (million metric tons)
Brazil
Thailand
Australia
Guatemala
Mexico
European Union
Others
World
Imports (million metric tons)
China
European Union
Indonesia
United States
United Arab Emirates
Bangladesh
Korea, Rep.
Malaysia
Others
World
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
5.1
4.5
15.4
0.5
2.1
5.6
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.2
0.6
46.5
85.7
8.5
6.5
19.0
1.7
3.2
5.6
2.5
0.9
0.0
3.3
0.5
0.9
54.8
107.6
7.9
13.7
23.2
4.0
6.8
6.3
3.9
2.1
2.6
3.6
1.0
1.9
60.6
137.6
17.1
20.5
22.1
5.1
6.8
8.0
5.2
2.6
1.6
4.2
1.6
2.8
55.3
152.9
38.4
26.6
15.9
9.7
11.2
7.1
5.5
3.9
3.0
3.7
2.0
2.3
33.0
162.2
37.8
26.6
16.0
11.3
14.3
7.7
6.4
5.6
4.4
4.4
2.9
2.3
36.5
176.1
36.0
30.5
18.4
10.8
11.0
7.9
6.3
5.2
4.4
4.7
3.0
2.1
37.1
177.2
34.7
27.7
14.0
9.7
8.4
8.1
6.6
5.1
5.2
5.0
3.0
2.0
35.5
164.9
37.1
25.5
16.5
10.1
8.2
7.9
6.5
5.4
5.3
5.0
3.1
2.5
36.3
169.3
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
2.9
0.7
14.4
20.2
1.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
1.4
0.7
13.4
17.6
3.6
1.4
0.2
0.3
1.4
2.4
13.2
22.4
12.0
1.0
0.6
0.4
2.0
1.5
22.4
39.9
6.3
1.6
3.0
1.5
1.3
0.8
15.1
29.5
8.2
8.8
5.3
1.3
1.6
0.9
17.8
43.9
10.6
7.3
5.3
1.3
1.6
0.9
18.8
45.8
9.7
4.9
3.6
1.4
1.6
1.4
15.2
37.8
8.0
3.2
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.4
14.8
32.8
1.2
0.2
1.8
0.1
0.6
2.7
17.4
24.0
2.3
1.0
2.6
0.2
0.0
6.5
22.3
34.9
1.3
2.7
2.8
0.7
0.3
8.1
26.1
42.0
7.7
3.4
3.1
1.2
0.2
7.3
22.8
45.6
25.8
6.6
2.8
1.5
1.6
1.1
14.5
53.9
26.2
7.2
3.2
2.1
2.7
1.6
14.9
57.9
24.0
8.3
3.6
2.3
1.5
1.7
13.7
55.0
24.4
8.8
3.7
2.3
1.2
1.5
13.1
54.9
26.1
9.0
3.9
2.3
1.6
1.5
11.2
55.6
0.4
5.4
0.1
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
22.7
1.1
3.8
0.6
4.4
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.5
20.8
32.0
1.1
4.1
0.2
2.6
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.9
25.9
36.2
1.1
3.3
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.6
1.3
31.4
43.6
2.1
3.8
3.1
3.4
2.0
1.5
1.7
1.8
29.7
49.1
4.3
3.3
3.6
3.4
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.9
28.9
51.4
5.1
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.4
2.0
1.9
2.1
28.3
50.9
6.7
3.5
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.4
1.9
1.9
29.4
54.4
7.9
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.5
2.4
1.9
1.9
29.0
55.6
Production (million metric tons)
Stocks (million metric tons)
0.0
1970
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1970/71
Brazil
India
European Union
Thailand
China
United States
Mexico
Pakistan
Russian Federation
Australia
Guatemala
Turkey
Others
World
Constant 2010
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Notes: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Tea
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
Annual Constant Prices (US$/kg)
3.5
5
3.0
4
2.5
3
2.0
2
1.5
1
1.0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1990
2000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
163
419
41
212
15
33
20
64
26
91
0
31
19
18
0
8
328
570
90
191
21
96
32
106
36
102
1
40
30
2
1
16
562
688
197
233
32
123
37
156
51
90
7
39
39
7
4
18
704
826
236
306
70
139
50
163
74
85
32
46
42
29
34
24
1,376
973
314
290
186
199
166
157
72
86
64
60
53
49
32
34
1,467
991
399
331
198
235
166
150
92
85
67
60
52
49
38
33
1,640
1,095
378
328
207
222
104
150
93
82
73
61
52
35
41
32
1,805
1,135
369
330
217
225
158
143
83
86
74
60
54
51
42
33
1,939
1,209
432
340
214
212
160
148
105
85
75
64
54
53
42
34
126
1,287
231
1,894
242
2,525
155
3,014
179
4,287
191
4,606
179
4,771
170
5,035
179
5,346
109
218
90
30
12
27
15
6
1
2
220
331
81
61
15
37
27
12
1
14
383
490
133
106
13
41
56
21
7
18
497
632
514
111
19
59
59
2
32
35
1,112
803
419
96
10
72
76
2
62
54
1,217
774
406
93
31
74
85
2
67
61
1,369
795
414
118
63
94
87
136
75
62
1,547
932
478
119
136
98
58
113
78
60
1,671
973
481
118
107
98
87
81
78
78
992
1,502
1,287
2,086
1,571
2,839
1,765
3,725
2,162
4,868
2,251
5,061
2,279
5,492
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
42
61
208
200
2
19
41
15
0
18
84
120
185
239
9
33
74
1
8
31
166
211
216
198
16
46
111
5
7
41
217
238
287
201
56
50
106
26
12
42
332
307
289
204
133
70
92
44
24
47
418
308
313
235
137
86
87
55
50
50
307
328
321
323
134
87
75
56
25
46
234
319
318
225
147
78
70
55
31
35
449
332
318
255
90
77
71
62
45
43
146
752
200
984
210
1,228
229
1,464
280
1,822
286
2,023
283
1,983
293
1,806
309
2,051
Consumption (thousand metric tons)
Exports (thousand metric tons)
Kenya
China
Sri Lanka
India
Vietnam
Argentina
Indonesia
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
Malawi
Others
World
Nominal
1980
Production (thousand metric tons)
China
India
Brazil
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Indonesia
Paraguay
Kenya
Thailand
Bangladesh
Others
World
0
1970
Constant 2010
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
China
India
Kenya
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Turkey
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Indonesia
Argentina
Japan
Thailand
Bangladesh
Malawi
Uganda
Burundi
Tanzania
Others
World
59
APPENDIX B
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization, Intergovernmental Group on Tea.
Note: Consumption includes domestic use for food, feed, waste, and other uses.
60
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Timber—Roundwood and Sawnwood
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
1,200
1,000
800
800
600
Sawnwood
700
400
600
500
Jan-04
Sawnwood, constant 2010
1,000
900
Sawnwood, nominal
200
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1970
1980
1990
312.7
n/a
42.2
117.5
23.9
56.7
12.7
37.5
673.4
1,276.4
2.0
5.2
2.0
0.6
0.0
2.3
2.1
n/a
69.0
83.1
327.1
n/a
79.2
150.8
61.7
44.8
30.9
43.0
708.4
1,446.0
8.3
3.8
3.7
3.1
0.0
3.8
3.0
n/a
69.7
95.4
Sawnwood: production (million cubic meters)
United States
China
Canada
Russian Federation
Germany
Sweden
Brazil
Finland
Others
World
63.7
14.8
19.8
n/a
11.6
12.3
8.0
7.4
251.6
389.1
65.3
21.2
32.8
n/a
13.0
11.3
14.9
10.3
252.1
420.9
Sawnwood: imports (million cubic meters)
China
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Others
World
0.1
10.6
9.0
3.0
0.4
6.0
4.0
3.1
16.5
52.6
2000
2010
2020
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
420.6
145.6
96.0
198.9
103.0
57.4
48.8
50.1
564.5
1,685.0
336.1
161.6
161.8
138.8
128.4
66.3
54.1
46.0
610.0
1,703.1
347.1
177.5
159.6
146.7
146.8
63.6
62.6
44.6
618.0
1,766.5
354.9
180.4
168.7
147.8
142.6
63.7
62.6
49.3
623.8
1,793.8
356.8
188.3
162.5
148.8
149.5
67.4
62.6
49.2
647.5
1,832.6
354.7
190.5
162.5
151.4
149.5
68.1
62.6
51.4
652.2
1,842.9
7.2
2.0
4.4
2.0
1.3
5.2
1.5
n/a
58.9
82.6
15.7
3.5
8.5
11.7
2.2
9.9
6.5
4.0
53.2
115.3
35.4
7.7
8.0
6.3
5.3
6.3
4.7
4.2
32.0
109.9
38.7
6.6
7.3
6.9
6.5
5.5
4.5
4.3
32.5
112.7
45.8
8.4
8.2
7.5
6.5
6.7
4.9
4.5
34.1
126.7
52.3
8.4
7.2
8.1
7.0
6.3
4.3
4.5
35.0
133.1
45.4
8.6
7.7
6.9
5.7
5.7
4.6
4.4
34.8
123.8
86.1
23.6
39.7
n/a
14.7
12.0
13.7
7.5
265.6
463.0
91.1
6.7
50.5
20.0
16.3
16.2
21.3
13.4
149.4
384.8
60.0
37.2
38.7
28.9
22.1
16.8
17.5
9.5
145.1
375.6
67.5
55.7
40.6
32.2
21.1
16.3
15.2
9.4
146.6
404.6
71.1
63.0
42.8
33.5
21.5
16.2
15.4
10.4
148.9
422.9
75.8
68.4
43.4
34.6
21.8
17.5
15.2
10.9
152.3
439.9
76.9
68.4
47.1
34.7
21.5
18.2
15.2
10.6
152.5
445.1
1.3
22.5
10.7
9.0
1.6
6.1
6.0
3.5
23.8
84.5
6.1
34.4
7.9
10.0
2.0
6.3
8.4
3.7
36.9
115.6
16.2
16.6
5.7
6.4
4.8
4.4
6.1
2.8
45.5
108.4
22.0
17.4
5.2
6.6
4.5
4.4
4.9
2.6
45.5
113.0
25.5
20.5
5.5
7.5
4.5
4.5
4.7
2.5
46.8
122.0
27.3
22.2
6.4
6.2
5.7
4.6
4.7
2.5
48.8
128.5
27.6
24.5
6.3
5.8
5.8
4.8
4.6
2.7
49.3
131.4
427.2
n/a
91.2
156.0
74.3
49.1
38.4
40.2
832.9
1,709.2
Industrial roundwood: imports (million cubic meters)
China
Germany
Austria
Sweden
India
Finland
Canada
Belgium
Others
World
1990
2000
Industrial roundwood: production (million cubic meters)
United States
Russian Federation
China
Canada
Brazil
Sweden
Indonesia
Finland
Others
World
1980
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
0.3
17.0
6.6
5.6
1.6
6.9
5.8
3.2
24.6
71.5
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Roundwood (which refers to Industrial roundwood), reported in cubic meters solid volume underbark (i.e. exclusing bark), is an
aggregate comprising sawlogs and veneer logs; pulpwood, round and split; and other industrial roundwood except wood fuel. Sawnwood, reported in cubic meters solid
volume, includes wood that has been produced from both domestic and imported roundwood, either by sawing lengthways or by a profile-chipping process and that exceeds
6mm in thickness.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
61
Timber—Wood panels and Woodpulp
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
1,000
1,200
900
1,050
800
900
700
Woodpulp, constant 2010
750
Woodpulp
600
600
500
450
400
Jan-04
300
1979
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970
1980
1990
0.9
23.0
n/a
3.3
5.8
0.8
0.2
1.0
34.7
69.8
2.3
26.4
n/a
4.8
8.3
2.5
0.4
2.0
54.6
101.3
2.5
1.0
0.6
0.1
0.2
2.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
10.0
2.1
2.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
2.4
0.8
0.0
0.4
15.7
Woodpulp: production (million metric tons)
37.3
0.8
16.6
8.1
6.2
1.2
8.8
n/a
22.5
101.6
46.2
3.4
19.9
8.7
7.2
1.3
9.8
n/a
29.1
125.7
Woodpulp: imports (million metric tons)
China
United States
Germany
Italy
Korea, Rep.
France
Japan
Indonesia
Others
World
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.3
45.7
4.8
15.0
14.1
5.8
2.4
4.6
74.7
186.3
109.2
32.6
10.1
9.9
12.6
10.2
6.6
8.2
88.8
288.3
149.3
31.5
12.8
11.1
12.1
12.1
8.1
8.5
89.3
334.7
177.0
33.5
12.7
11.7
12.2
11.7
8.8
9.0
90.8
367.4
191.2
33.8
13.2
12.3
12.3
11.8
9.6
9.2
92.9
386.3
191.2
33.8
13.6
12.8
12.2
11.8
9.5
9.4
93.4
387.7
4.2
3.3
3.8
3.2
0.5
3.3
0.9
1.2
0.1
30.3
13.9
4.1
6.2
6.6
1.5
3.3
1.7
2.1
0.7
59.9
7.7
4.6
4.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.6
1.7
66.7
8.8
5.3
4.8
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.3
1.4
72.3
8.8
5.1
5.0
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.5
1.6
74.1
9.6
5.3
4.8
3.4
3.5
3.3
2.8
2.3
2.2
77.0
11.6
5.4
4.2
3.5
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.5
2.2
77.9
57.2
4.3
23.0
10.2
8.9
2.1
11.3
n/a
37.8
154.8
57.8
7.3
26.7
11.5
12.0
3.7
11.4
5.8
34.9
171.3
50.9
14.5
18.9
11.9
10.5
7.5
9.5
7.4
39.5
170.6
50.2
14.3
17.8
12.0
10.2
8.8
8.7
7.7
41.6
171.4
49.1
15.5
18.1
11.7
10.5
9.6
8.8
7.2
41.3
171.8
50.1
16.8
17.3
11.5
10.5
10.4
9.1
7.7
41.6
174.9
49.4
17.6
17.6
11.6
10.5
10.2
8.9
8.1
41.1
174.9
0.9
4.4
3.7
2.1
1.1
1.9
2.9
0.3
8.0
25.2
4.0
6.6
4.1
3.2
2.1
2.4
3.1
1.0
11.3
37.8
12.1
5.6
5.1
3.4
2.5
1.9
1.8
1.2
14.1
47.9
17.2
5.2
4.8
3.3
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.3
15.6
53.7
17.6
5.5
5.0
3.5
2.4
2.1
1.7
1.6
16.3
55.8
18.7
5.8
4.9
3.4
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.6
16.9
57.2
18.7
5.4
4.8
3.5
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.6
16.7
56.7
3.0
37.0
n/a
6.4
9.6
2.9
0.8
1.4
67.9
129.0
Wood-based panels: imports (million cubic meters)
United States
Brazil
Canada
Sweden
Finland
China
Japan
Russian Federation
Others
World
1999
2000
Wood-based panels: production (million cubic meters)
United States
Germany
Japan
China
Canada
United Kingdom
Italy
Korea, Rep.
Others
World
1989
Source: World Bank.
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
China
United States
Russian Federation
Canada
Germany
Brazil
Turkey
Poland
Others
World
Woodpulp, nominal
0.1
3.2
1.8
1.4
0.2
1.3
0.9
0.0
7.6
16.6
0.4
3.7
2.6
1.8
0.5
1.8
2.2
0.1
7.5
20.6
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Wood-based panels, reported in cubic meters solid volume, is an aggregate comprising veneer sheets, plywood, particle board and
fiberboard. Woodpulp, reported in metric tons air-dry weight (i.e. with 10% moisture content), is an aggregate comprising mechanical woodpulp; semi-chemical woodpulp;
chemical woodpulp; and dissolving woodpulp.
62
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Tin
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
40,000
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
30,000
25,000
Constant 2010
30,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
1980
16.0
32.5
1.2
22.5
1.1
6.9
11.6
61.4
0.4
3.2
2.5
1.5
0.6
69.7
231.1
1990
42.2
39.3
0.6
17.3
4.8
39.1
7.4
28.5
0.8
1.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
41.6
224.5
Refined Production (thousand metric tons)
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Peru
Bolivia
Brazil
Thailand
Belgium
Vietnam
India
Poland
Japan
Nigeria
Others
World
15.0
30.5
71.3
0.0
17.5
8.8
34.8
3.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
2.7
59.5
244.6
35.8
38.0
49.0
0.0
13.1
37.6
15.5
6.1
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.3
49.7
248.0
Refined Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Japan
Germany
Korea, Rep.
India
Vietnam
Netherlands
Spain
Others
World
12.5
46.5
30.9
19.0
1.8
2.3
0.0
5.0
4.6
100.3
222.9
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
Mine Production (thousand metric tons)
China
Indonesia
Myanmar
Bolivia
Peru
Brazil
Australia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Nigeria
Rwanda
Lao PDR
Others
World
Nominal
25.5
36.8
34.8
21.7
7.8
2.3
0.0
6.9
4.0
97.8
237.6
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
87.7
51.6
1.6
12.5
36.4
14.2
9.1
6.3
1.8
0.0
2.0
0.4
0.4
10.4
234.5
113.1
120.0
0.7
18.6
42.5
11.7
2.7
2.9
5.4
7.6
0.9
3.3
0.6
3.1
333.1
129.6
84.0
0.8
20.2
33.8
10.4
18.6
2.7
5.4
7.4
1.3
2.9
0.4
0.6
318.1
115.7
90.0
2.1
19.7
26.1
13.7
6.2
3.7
5.4
2.5
2.4
3.5
0.6
0.5
292.0
149.0
84.0
9.0
19.3
23.7
13.8
6.5
3.7
5.4
5.2
2.6
3.6
0.5
0.6
326.9
177.3
69.6
17.5
19.8
23.1
13.8
7.2
3.8
5.4
4.1
2.5
4.2
0.8
0.5
349.6
146.6
68.4
24.0
20.2
19.5
13.8
7.1
3.7
3.6
3.0
2.1
2.0
0.8
0.6
315.5
109.9
46.4
26.2
17.4
9.4
13.8
17.2
8.5
1.8
3.6
0.0
0.6
0.1
7.4
262.3
112.2
78.0
39.2
38.3
15.6
9.0
29.4
7.7
1.8
3.6
0.0
0.8
0.6
4.4
340.5
149.0
64.2
38.7
36.4
15.0
9.1
23.5
9.9
3.0
3.6
0.6
0.8
0.6
2.0
356.6
147.9
79.8
37.8
24.8
14.3
12.0
22.8
11.4
4.8
3.6
1.4
1.1
0.6
1.8
364.0
159.6
63.0
32.7
24.2
14.9
12.0
23.0
10.3
5.5
3.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.5
353.7
186.9
64.8
36.7
24.5
15.4
12.0
16.3
9.7
5.5
4.2
2.3
1.7
0.6
0.1
380.8
166.9
67.4
31.2
20.4
15.1
12.0
10.5
8.8
5.5
4.2
2.1
1.7
0.6
0.1
346.4
49.1
51.0
25.2
20.7
15.3
6.4
0.8
3.6
4.1
100.6
276.9
108.7
42.3
33.2
19.1
17.9
8.4
1.2
3.5
7.0
97.4
338.6
154.3
32.0
35.7
17.4
17.4
10.7
2.0
5.4
6.1
87.7
368.8
176.2
30.7
27.7
17.6
16.2
10.0
2.0
4.5
2.9
70.0
357.8
169.3
29.2
28.3
18.0
14.5
10.4
3.6
7.4
4.7
69.7
355.1
192.6
28.8
27.1
18.8
13.8
11.9
5.5
7.2
6.4
66.8
378.8
176.4
31.3
26.8
17.9
13.1
12.9
6.0
6.0
5.7
67.2
363.1
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Notes: n/a implies data not available. Refined production and consumption include significant recyled material. Early large refined producers (including Russian Federation,
Australia, Singapore, and Argentina) are not listed.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Wheat
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
500
500
400
400
300
Constant 2010
300
200
200
100
Jan-04
100
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Production (million metric tons)
62.5
29.2
20.1
n/a
36.8
9.0
7.9
n/a
7.3
8.0
n/a
3.8
4.9
1.5
178.0
369.1
Stocks (million metric tons)
China
United States
India
European Union
Russian Federation
Australia
Others
World
7.2
22.4
5.0
8.6
n/a
3.7
42.3
89.1
Exports (million metric tons)
Russian Federation
United States
European Union
Canada
Australia
Ukraine
Others
World
n/a
20.2
6.7
11.8
9.1
n/a
15.3
63.2
Imports (million metric tons)
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Indonesia
Algeria
European Union
Brazil
Japan
Others
World
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1970/71
European Union
China
India
Russian Federation
United States
Canada
Australia
Ukraine
Pakistan
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Argentina
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Others
World
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is September 2016.
Nominal
2.8
0.5
0.6
19.6
1.7
4.8
45.3
75.4
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
93.3
55.2
31.8
n/a
64.8
19.3
10.9
n/a
10.9
13.0
n/a
5.9
7.8
1.8
214.5
529.2
125.0
98.2
49.9
49.6
74.3
32.1
15.1
30.4
14.4
16.0
16.2
8.0
11.0
4.3
169.4
713.8
132.7
99.6
76.4
34.5
60.6
26.5
22.1
10.2
21.1
18.0
9.1
8.1
16.3
6.4
41.7
583.3
136.7
115.2
80.8
41.5
58.9
23.3
27.4
16.8
23.3
17.0
9.6
13.5
17.2
7.2
60.9
649.3
144.6
121.9
93.5
52.1
58.1
37.5
25.3
22.3
24.2
18.8
13.9
14.5
10.5
8.3
69.6
715.0
156.9
126.2
95.9
59.1
55.1
29.4
23.9
24.8
26.0
15.3
13.0
13.0
13.9
8.3
67.5
728.3
160.0
130.2
86.5
61.0
56.1
27.6
24.5
27.3
25.1
19.5
13.7
15.0
11.3
8.1
69.0
735.0
143.2
128.0
90.0
72.0
62.9
31.5
28.3
27.0
25.3
17.5
16.5
15.5
14.4
8.1
64.3
744.4
31.7
26.9
4.0
13.0
n/a
2.0
48.0
125.6
49.9
23.6
5.8
22.5
16.4
2.8
72.6
193.7
91.9
23.8
21.5
17.9
1.5
5.5
44.4
206.5
59.1
23.5
15.4
11.9
13.7
8.2
66.6
198.4
65.3
16.1
17.8
9.9
5.2
4.6
75.1
194.0
76.1
20.5
17.2
12.7
6.3
4.8
78.4
216.1
97.0
26.6
14.5
14.0
5.6
6.3
75.7
239.7
110.7
31.0
11.0
10.5
9.6
6.8
68.8
248.4
n/a
41.2
17.5
16.3
9.6
n/a
23.1
107.6
1.2
29.1
23.8
21.7
11.8
2.0
38.0
127.7
0.7
28.9
15.7
17.3
15.9
0.1
22.6
101.3
4.0
35.1
23.1
16.6
18.6
4.3
31.0
132.7
18.6
32.0
32.0
23.3
18.6
9.8
31.7
166.0
22.8
23.5
35.4
24.2
16.6
11.3
30.7
164.4
25.5
21.1
34.7
22.1
16.0
17.4
35.1
172.0
30.0
26.5
25.0
22.0
20.5
15.5
35.1
174.7
5.4
1.2
2.3
10.4
3.9
5.8
70.8
99.9
5.7
2.0
4.4
3.7
4.4
5.6
76.9
102.7
6.1
4.1
5.6
3.5
7.2
5.9
67.0
99.3
10.6
6.6
6.5
4.6
6.7
5.9
91.1
132.0
10.2
7.4
7.5
4.0
7.1
6.1
116.3
158.5
11.3
7.5
7.3
6.0
5.4
5.9
115.8
159.1
11.9
10.1
8.2
6.9
6.8
5.7
120.4
169.9
11.8
8.5
8.2
7.0
6.0
5.8
122.6
169.9
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (October 2016 update).
Notes: n/a implies data not available. The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971.
63
64
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Zinc
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Source: World Bank.
Note: Last observation is June 2016.
1990
2000
Mine Production (thousand metric tons)
150
495
488
32
349
243
50
n/a
1,059
167
229
n/a
70
n/a
6,172
763
940
584
70
571
307
108
n/a
1,203
160
167
n/a
110
n/a
7,176
Refined Production (thousand metric tons)
China
Korea, Rep.
India
Canada
Japan
Spain
Australia
Peru
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Finland
Netherlands
Russian Federation
Others
World
155
76
44
592
735
152
301
64
n/a
145
147
170
n/a
n/a
6,159
552
248
79
592
688
253
309
118
n/a
199
175
208
n/a
n/a
6,698
Refined Consumption (thousand metric tons)
China
United States
Korea, Rep.
India
Germany
Japan
Belgium
Australia
Russian Federation
Others
World
200
810
68
95
474
752
155
100
n/a
n/a
6,131
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Note: n/a implies data not available.
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: 2016-25 are forecasts.
1980
China
Australia
Peru
India
United States
Mexico
Bolivia
Kazakhstan
Canada
Sweden
Ireland
Russian Federation
Brazil
Others
World
Constant 2010
369
992
230
135
530
814
178
114
n/a
n/a
6,568
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,780
1,420
910
208
829
401
149
322
1,002
177
263
132
100
1,129
8,823
2,061
1,367
1,202
447
748
476
160
364
667
216
429
186
168
1,079
9,569
3,842
1,480
1,470
740
748
570
411
405
649
199
354
214
211
1,163
12,457
4,859
1,507
1,281
725
738
660
390
371
612
188
338
189
164
1,253
13,274
5,188
1,523
1,351
817
784
643
407
417
426
177
327
193
152
1,251
13,655
5,200
1,560
1,319
729
832
660
449
386
353
222
283
217
193
1,306
13,708
4,750
1,691
1,422
826
810
677
480
384
278
247
236
236
193
1,142
13,372
1,957
473
176
780
654
386
489
200
263
337
223
217
241
2,757
9,153
2,725
650
266
724
638
501
457
166
357
334
282
225
206
2,587
10,119
5,209
750
701
690
574
517
498
223
319
322
307
264
260
2,275
12,909
4,881
877
691
649
571
528
496
319
320
324
315
257
247
2,086
12,561
5,280
895
773
652
587
529
492
346
320
323
312
275
262
2,012
13,058
5,827
915
700
648
583
529
482
336
325
321
302
290
265
2,030
13,553
6,155
978
817
678
567
529
479
335
324
318
306
291
267
1,930
13,975
1,402
1,315
419
224
532
674
394
193
138
3,599
8,889
3,040
1,080
448
389
514
602
256
239
166
3,662
10,396
5,350
907
540
538
494
516
321
225
203
3,432
12,526
5,396
892
553
561
474
479
239
104
222
3,139
12,059
5,962
935
578
640
479
498
222
180
265
3,195
12,954
6,420
962
644
638
477
503
388
174
242
3,314
13,762
6,487
924
633
612
479
457
442
289
255
3,334
13,911
Appendix C
Description of price series
Technical notes
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Description of Price Series
ENERGY
Coal (Australia). Thermal, f.o.b. piers, Newcastle/
Port Kembla, 6,700 kcal/kg, 90 days forward delivery.
Coal (Colombia). Thermal, f.o.b. Bolivar, 6,450
kcal/kg, (11,200 btu/lb), less than .8% sulfur, 9% ash,
90 days forward delivery.
Coal (South Africa). Thermal, f.o.b. Richards Bay,
6,000 kcal/kg, 90 days forward delivery.
Crude oil. Average price of Brent (38° API), Dubai
Fateh (32° API), and West Texas Intermediate (WTI,
40° API). Equally weighed.
Natural Gas Index (Laspeyres). Weights based on
five-year consumption volumes for Europe, U.S. and
Japan (LNG), updated every five years.
Natural gas (Europe). Average import border price
with a component of spot price, including U.K.
Natural gas (U.S.). Spot price at Henry Hub,
Louisiana.
Natural gas (Japan). LNG, import price, cif; recent
two months' averages are estimates.
NON-ENERGY
Beverages
Cocoa (ICCO). International Cocoa Organization
daily price, average of the first three positions on the
terminal markets of New York and London, nearest
three future trading months.
Coffee (ICO). International Coffee Organization
indicator price, other mild Arabicas, average New
York and Bremen/Hamburg markets, ex-dock.
Coffee (ICO). International Coffee Organization
indicator price, Robustas, average New York and Le
Havre/Marseilles markets, ex-dock.
Tea. Average three auctions, average of quotations at
Kolkata, Colombo, and Mombasa/Nairobi.
Tea (Colombo). Sri Lankan origin, all tea, average of
weekly quotes.
Tea (Kolkata). leaf, include excise duty, average of
weekly quotes.
Tea (Mombasa/Nairobi). African origin, all tea,
average of weekly quotes.
Oils and meals
Coconut oil (Philippines/Indonesia). Bulk, c.i.f.
Rotterdam.
Copra (Philippines/Indonesia). Bulk, c.i.f. N.W.
Europe.
APPENDIX C
Groundnuts (U.S.). Runners 40/50, shelled basis,
c.i.f. Rotterdam.
Groundnut oil (any origin). C.i.f. Rotterdam.
Fishmeal (any origin). 64-65%, c&f Bremen, estimates based on wholesale price.
Palm oil (Malaysia). 5% bulk, c.i.f. N. W. Europe.
Palmkernel Oil (Malaysia). C.i.f. Rotterdam.
Soybean meal (any origin), Argentine 45/46% extraction, c.i.f. Rotterdam.
Soybean oil (any origin). Crude, f.o.b. ex-mill
Netherlands.
Soybeans (U.S.). C.i.f. Rotterdam.
Grains
Barley (U.S.). Feed, No. 2, spot, 20 days to-arrive,
delivered Minneapolis.
Maize (U.S.). No. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports.
Rice (Thailand). 5% broken, white rice (WR), milled,
indicative price based on weekly surveys of export
transactions, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Rice (Thailand). 25% broken, WR, milled indicative
survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Rice (Thailand). 100% broken, A.1 Super, indicative
survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Rice (Vietnam). 5% broken, WR, milled, weekly
indicative survey price, minimum export price, f.o.b.
Hanoi.
Sorghum (U.S.). No. 2 milo yellow, f.o.b. Gulf ports.
Wheat (U.S.). No. 1, hard red winter (HRW),
ordinary protein, export price delivered at the US
Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment.
Wheat (U.S.). No. 2, soft red winter (SRW), export
price delivered at the U.S. Gulf port for prompt or 30
days shipment.
Other food
Bananas (Central and South America). Major brands,
free on truck (f.o.t.) Southern Europe, including
duties.
Bananas (Central and South America). Major brands,
US import price, f.o.t. US Gulf ports.
Meat, beef (Australia/New Zealand). Chucks and
cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical lean,
c.i.f. U.S. port (east coast), ex-dock.
Meat, chicken (U.S.). Broiler/fryer, whole birds,
2-1/2 to 3 pounds, USDA grade "A", ice-packed,
Georgia Dock preliminary weighted average,
wholesale.
Meat, sheep (New Zealand). Frozen whole carcasses
Prime Medium (PM) wholesale, Smithfield, London.
67
68
APPENDIX C
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Oranges (Mediterranean exporters). Navel, EEC
indicative import price, c.i.f. Paris.
Shrimp (Mexico). West coast, frozen, white, No. 1,
shell-on, headless, 26 to 30 count per pound,
wholesale price at New York.
Sugar (EU). European Union negotiated import price
for raw unpackaged sugar from African, Caribbean,
and Pacific (ACP), c.i.f. European ports.
Sugar (U.S.). Nearby futures contract, c.i.f.
Sugar (world). International Sugar Agreement (ISA)
daily price, raw, f.o.b. and stowed at greater Caribbean
ports.
Fertilizers
Timber
Metals and minerals
Logs (West Africa). Sapele, high quality (loyal and
marchand), 80 centimeter or more, f.o.b. Douala,
Cameroon.
Logs (Southeast Asia). Meranti, Sarawak, Malaysia,
sale price charged by importers, Tokyo.
Plywood (Africa and Southeast Asia). Lauan, 3-ply,
extra, 91 cm x 182 cm x 4 mm, wholesale price, spot
Tokyo.
Sawnwood (West Africa). Sapele, width 6 inches or
more, length 6 feet or more, f.a.s. Cameroonian ports.
Sawnwood (Southeast Asia). Malaysian dark red seraya/meranti, select and better quality, average 7 to 8
inches; length average 12 to 14 inches; thickness 1 to
2 inches; kiln dry, c. & f. UK ports, with 5% agents
commission including premium for products of certified sustainable forest.
Woodpulp (Sweden). Softwood, sulphate, bleached,
air-dry weight, c.i.f. North Sea ports.
Aluminum (LME). London Metal Exchange,
unalloyed primary ingots, standard high grade,
physical settlement.
Copper (LME). Standard grade A, cathodes and wire
bar shapes, physical settlement.
Iron ore (any origin). Fines, spot price, c.f.r. China,
62% Fe.
Lead (LME). Refined, standard high grade, physical
settlement.
Nickel (LME). Cathodes, standard high grade,
physical settlement.
Tin (LME). Refined, standard high grade, physical
settlement.
Zinc (LME). Refined, standard special high grade,
physical settlement.
Other raw materials
Cotton (Cotlook "A" index). Middling 1-3/32 inch,
traded in Far East, C/F.
Rubber (Asia). RSS3 grade, Singapore Commodity
Exchange Ltd (SICOM) nearby contract.
Rubber (Asia). TSR 20, Technically Specified Rubber,
SICOM nearby contract.
DAP (diammonium phosphate). Standard size, bulk,
spot, f.o.b. US Gulf.
Phosphate rock (Morocco). 70% BPL, contract,
f.a.s. Casablanca.
Potassium chloride (muriate of potash). Standard
grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver.
TSP (triple superphosphate). Bulk, spot, granular,
f.o.b. Tunisia.
Urea (Black Sea). Bulk, spot, f.o.b. Black Sea
(primarily Yuzhnyy).
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold (U.K.). 99.5% fine, London afternoon fixing,
average of daily rates.
Platinum (U.K.). 99.9% refined, London afternoon
fixing.
Silver (U.K.). 99.9% refined, London afternoon
fixing.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Technical Notes
Definitions and explanations
Constant prices are prices which are deflated by the
Manufacturers Unit Value Index (MUV).
MUV is the unit value index in U.S. dollar terms of
manufactures exported from fifteen countries: Brazil,
Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Italy, Japan,
Mexico, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Spain, Thailand,
United Kingdom, and United States.
Price indexes were computed by the Laspeyres formula.
The Non-Energy Price Index is comprised of 34
commodities. U.S. dollar prices of each commodity is
weighted by 2002-2004 average export values. Base year
reference for all indexes is 2010. Countries included in
indexes are all low- and middle-income, according to World
Bank income classifications.
Price index weights. Trade data as of May 2008 comes
from United Nations' Comtrade Database via the World
Bank WITS system, Food and Agriculture Organization
FAOSTAT Database, International Energy Agency
Database, BP Statistical Review, World Metal Statistics,
World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and World Bank staff
estimates. The weights can be found in the table on the
next page.
Reporting period. Calendar vs. crop or marketing year
refers to the span of the year. It is common in many
agricultural commodities to refer to production and other
variables over a twelve-month period that begins with
harvest. A crop or marketing year will often differ by
commodity and, in some cases, by country or region.
Abbreviations
$ = U.S. dollar
bbl = barrel
bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day
cif = cost, insurance, freight
cum = cubic meter
dmt = dry metric ton
f.o.b. = free on board
f.o.t. = free on track
kg = kilogram
mb/d = million barrels per day
mmbtu = million British thermal units
mmt = million metric tons
mt = metric ton (1,000 kilograms)
toz = troy oz
Acronyms
CIS
CPI
DAP
DUC
ECB
EIA
EMDE
FAO
Commonwealth of Independent States
consumer price index
diammonium phosphate
drilled but uncompleted wells
European Central Bank
Energy Information Administration
emerging and developing economies
Food and Agriculture Organization
APPENDIX C
FSU
GDP
ICA
IEA
ITA
LME
LNG
MUV
NDRC
NPI
OECD
former Soviet Union
gross domestic product
International Coffee Agreement
International Energy Agency
International Tin Agreement
London Metal Exchange
liquefied natural gas
Manufacture Unit Value
National Development and Reform Commission
nickel pig iron
Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
TSP
triple superphosphate
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
WTI
West Texas Intermediate
Data sources
Agrium Fact Book
Baker Hughes
Bloomberg
BP Statistical Review
Concensus Forecast
Cotton Outlook
FAO
Fertilizer Week
INFOFISH
INTERFEL Fel Actualités Hebdo
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)
International Coffee Organization (ICO)
International Cotton Advisory Committee
International Energy Agency (IEA)
International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA)
International Rubber Study Group (IRSG)
International Tea Committee (ITC)
International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO)
International Sugar Organization (ISO)
ISTA Mielke GmbH Oil World
Japan Lumber Journal
MinEx Consulting
MLA Meat & Livestock Weekly
Platts International Coal Report
Singapore Commodity Exchange
Sopisco News
Sri Lanka Tea Board
Thomson Reuters
U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. NOAA Fisheries Service
World Bureau of Metal Statistics
World Gas Intelligence
69
70
APPENDIX C
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | octo b er 2 0 1 6
Weights for commodity price indexes
Commodity group
ENERGY
Coal
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
NON-ENERGY
Agriculture
Beverages
Coffee
Cocoa
Tea
Food
Grains
Rice
Wheat
Maize (includes sorghum)
Barley
Oils and Meals
Soybeans
Soybean Oil
Soybean Meal
Palm Oil
Coconut Oil
Groundnut Oil (includes groundnuts)
Other Food
Sugar
Bananas
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Oranges (includes orange junice)
Agricultural Raw Materials
Timber
Logs
Sawnwood
Other Raw Materials
Cotton
Natural Rubber
Tobacco
Fertilizers
Natural Phosphate Rock
Phosphate
Potassium
Nitogenous
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum
Copper
Iron Ore
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Share of
energy and non-energy indexes
100.0
4.7
84.6
10.8
100.0
64.9
8.4
3.8
3.1
1.5
40.0
11.3
3.4
2.8
4.6
0.5
16.3
4.0
2.1
4.3
4.9
0.5
0.5
12.4
3.9
1.9
2.7
2.4
1.4
16.5
8.6
1.9
6.7
7.9
1.9
3.7
2.3
3.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
1.5
31.6
8.4
12.1
6.0
0.6
2.5
0.7
1.3
100.0
77.8
18.9
3.3
Notes: Index weights are based on 2002-04 developing countries' export values. Precious metals are not included in the non-energy index.
Share of
sub-group indexes
100.0
4.7
84.6
10.8
100.0
45.7
36.9
17.4
100.0
30.2
25.3
40.8
3.7
100.0
24.6
13.0
26.3
30.2
3.1
2.8
100.0
31.5
15.7
22.0
19.2
11.6
100.0
22.1
77.9
100.0
24.7
46.7
28.7
100.0
16.9
21.7
20.1
41.3
100.0
26.7
38.4
18.9
1.8
8.1
2.1
4.1
CO M M ODIT Y M A R K ET S O U TLOO K | o c t o b e r 2 0 1 6
Selected TopicS
Commodity Markets Outlook: Special Topics, 2011-2016
Topic
Date
OPEC in historical context: Commodity agreements and market fundamentals
October 2016
From energy prices to food prices: Moving in tandem?
July 2016
Resource development in era of cheap commodities
April 2016
Weak growth in emerging market economies: What does it imply for commodity markets?
January 2016
Understanding El Niño: What does it mean for commodity markets?
October 2015
Iran nuclear agreement: A game changer for energy markets?
October 2015
How important are China and India in global commodity consumption?
July 2015
Anatomy of the last four oil price crashes
April 2015
Oil price plunge in perspective
January 2015
The role of income growth in commodities
October 2014
Price volatility for most commodities has returned to historical norms
July 2014
The nature and causes of oil price volatility
January 2014
A global energy market?
July 2013
Global reserves, demand growth, and the “super cycle” hypothesis
July 2013
The “energy revolution”, innovation, and the nature of substitution
January 2013
Commodity prices: levels, volatility, and comovement
January 2013
Which drivers matter most in food price movements?
January 2013
Induced innovation, price divergence, and substitution
June 2012
The role of emerging markets in commodity consumption
June 2012
WTI-Brent price dislocation
January 2012
Metals consumption in China and India
January 2012
China, global metal demand, and the super-cycle hypothesis
June 2011
71
M
ost commodity prices rose in the third quarter from lows
earlier in the year, with gains in energy and metals partly offset
by declines in grains and fertilizers. Crude oil prices are forecast
to rise to $55 per barrel in 2017 from $43/bbl as OPEC limits
production. Energy prices, which also include coal and natural
gas, are seen jumping 24 percent next year. Metals prices are
forecast to rise next year. Agricultural prices are expected to
post a modest increase overall in 2017, including food prices.
A Special Focus analyzes OPEC’s plan to limit production.
Historically, agreements aimed at influencing the prices of
commodities such as tin and coffee have succeeded in swaying
markets for a time but eventually lost that ability and collapsed.
OPEC’s ability to affect oil prices is likely to be tested by the
expansion of oil supply from unconventional sources, especially
shale producers.
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook is published
quarterly, in January, April, July, and October. The report
provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups,
including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and
fertilizers. Price forecasts to 2025 for 46 commodities are also
presented, together with historical price data. Commodity price
data updates are published separately at the beginning of each
month.
The report and data can be accessed at:
www.worldbank.org/commodities