KABUL RIVER TREATY: A NECESSITY FOR PEACE-NSECURITY BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN, AND
PEACE IN SOUTH ASIA
Shakeel Azam
Ph.D Scholar, Department of International Relations, Peshawar University
ABSTRACT
This study attempts to unearth that recently erupted water-related rift over
sharing and use of water from common sub-basin, River Kabul owing to upstream
damming by Afghanistan is, for all legal intents and practical purposes, an
exclusive issue between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its linkage with Indo-Pakistan
relations is thus not a practical idea. The paper is an effort to explain that this
untoward situation can be converted into an opportunity to resolve it once and for
all. The study reveals that such damming, if not equitably rationalized bilaterally
will affect: i) economy of lower-riparian country; ii) relationship; and iii)
prosperity of both the nations; and iv) regional peace. The study notes that the
efforts so far made establish the seriousness of this issue. The article, therefore,
identifies that a) international law regime; and b) Indus Water Treaty provides
criteria, which may be transformed into a logical framework to be used as ‘blue
print’ for inking a treaty between them. What could be the possible mode of
resolution and how to achieve it are questions which call for in-depth scrutiny.
Hence, this paper suggests how to bridge the gap between theory and practice by
a practicable arrangement in such fashion that the controversy is prevented from
becoming a problem to ensure bilateral amity and regional peace.
Keywords: Kabul River Treaty, Peace-&-Security, Afghanistan & Pakistan
INTRODUCTION
Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China share Indus River Basin (IRB). Natural
resources depletion is a major challenge of this region owing to population
explosion, urbanization, industrialization, environmental degradation and
inefficient use of water. Its current population of 237 million people is estimated
to increase to 319 million in 2025 and 383 million by 2050. Increase in water
availability for climatic changes is a temporary phase. It will be subject to
continuous decrease in the long run. Its longest part is in Pakistan and substantial
upstream parts are in China, India and Afghanistan ((Laghari, Vanham & Rauch,
2012).
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Kabul River, a tributary of IRS runs through Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is 700
kilometers long. It emerges in the Sanglakh Range of the Hindukush Mountains in
Afghanistan and after passing through Kabul and Jalalabad in Afghanistan,
empties into the Indus River near Attock in Pakistan. Its sub-tributaries are:
Logar, Panjsher, Kunhar, Alingar, Bara and Swat rivers. Kunhar River is its
largest tributary which, after a long journey, meets Kabul River near Jalalabad.
Several dams impound Kabul River: Naghlu and Surobi dams in Kabul, Darunta
dam in Nangarhar in Afghanistan and Warsak dam in Pakistan (Wikipedia,
2009).
Pakistan and Afghanistan currently share nine rivers with annual flows of about
18.3 million acre feet (MAF), of which Kabul River accounts for 16.5 MAF
(News, 2015). It is shared by upper-riparian Afghanistan and lower-riparian
Pakistan (Frontier Post, 2013). Afghanistan needs modern water infrastructure for
its agriculture. Dam building is an integral part of Afghanistan‟s 2008
Development Agenda (Kugleman, Alam & Bakhshi, 2011).
Afghanistan is building 12 dams within its own territorial limits at various sites
across river Kabul and that too with financial assistance of India. These dams will
have cumulative storage capacity of 4.7 MAF. The concern of Pakistan is that
such dams will enable Afghanistan to interrupt water supply to Indus river
(Kugelman et al, 2014)) by withholding water during sowing seasons and
releasing water during wet-seasons. This tussle, if not adequately and rationally
redressed, will affect agriculture and hydro-power generation of Pakistan thereby
turning amity between them into enmity, disturbing regional peace and perturbing
regional trade and commerce.
Main objective of this study is to diagnose the causes behind this tussle between
the two countries. Sub-objectives are:
 To identify politico-legal measures to prevent this rift from becoming a
problem; and
 To figure out a mechanism to resolve it.
The study may serve as an eye-opener for decision-making in relation to inking
bilateral arrangement between them on sharing and use of water from Kabul River
for peaceful co-existence.
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136
RESEARCH DESIGN
Survey as an approach is used to solve specific problems, test the validity of some
theory or supplement some missing information as to any issue (Gupta, 1993: 3334) and use of published data is permissible. Better alternatives can be developed
by thematic argumentation (Boyd et al, 1977:34). Hypothetico-deductive
approach may be made use of in the same study (Sekaran, 1999:28 & Walliman,
2006). Evaluation of strengths and weaknesses of evidence to justify an
alternative is a tool to find out better solution (Thompson, 2012).
This research counts upon qualitative data captured through „literature survey’ on
various aspects of this topic. The underlying factors on sharing and use of water
between Afghanistan and Pakistan from River Kabul and effects thereof have
been thematically analyzed through argumentation, keeping in view the
contextual reality.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Falkenmarks Water Stress Index divides the total available water of a country by
its population. If the average amount of water available for per inhabitant falls
short of a certain threshold value (1700 m3 per person per year), such a country is
taken as „Water Stressed Country‟. In case it falls short of 1000 m3 per person per
year, it is “Water Scarce Country”. In case it is less than 500 m3 per person per
year, it is considered as Water Poor Country (Boesen & Ravnborg, 2004).
Around 2,775 cubic meters water per capita per year currently available in
Afghanistan is well-above threshold of 1800 cubic meters per capita (Kugelman,
Alam & Bakhshi, 2011). 50% of country‟s urban population lives near and around
Kabul River Basin (KRB), an unutilized basin (Bakhshi, Kugleman & Alam,
2011). Pakistan‟s per person per year water availability in 1947 was 5000 m3. It
has gone down to 1000 m3 per person per year and will be 700 m3 in 2025
(Pakistan Strategic Country Environmental Assessment Report, 2006 & ADBP
Report, 2007). It is thus „water stressed‟ country (World Bank Report 2005).
IRB comprises the Jhelum, the Chenab, the Ravi, the Beas, the Sutlej and the
Indus. The Kabul and the Kurram rivers are its other two tributaries, which rise in
Afghanistan. India and Pakistan are major co-riparians from IRS. Some portion of
it also lies in China, Afghanistan and Nepal (Central Water Commission, 2010).
For causes of row, see introduction to this study. Table 1 below shows „area-wise
position’ of Indus River Basin.
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Table 1 Area-wise position of Indus River Basin
Basi
n
Nam
e
Indu
s
Total area
of basin
(sq.km)
Country name
Area of
country in
basin (sq.km)
Area of
country in
basin (%)
1,138,800
Pakistan
597,700
52.48
India
China
Afghanistan
Chinese control claimed by
India
Indian control claimed by
Chinese
Nepal
381,600
76,200
72,100
9,600
33.52
6.69
6.33
0.84
1,600
0.14
0
0.00
For further details on effects of damming, see introductory part of this paper.
Details of 12 Afghan dams (News, 2015) river Kabul are reflected in table 2
below.
Table 2 Details of 12 Afghanistan Hydel Power Projects on River Kabul
#
Project
River
1.
Totumdara
Panjsher Sub-basin
2.
3.
4.
5.
Barak
Panjsher
Baghdara
Haijana
6.
Kajab
-do-do-doLogur Upper Kabul
Sub-basin
on
the
Kabul River
-do-
Capacity
in MW
200 MW
#
Project
River
7.
100 MW
100 MW
210 MW
72 MW
8.
9.
10.
11.
Tangi
Wadag
Gat
Sarobi
Laghman
Konar
Logur Upper Kabul Subbasin on the Kabul River
-doLower Kabul Sub-basin
-do-do-
15 MW
12.
Kama
-do-
Capacity in
MW
56 MW
86 MW
210 MW
1251 MW
94.8 MW
11.5 MW
Damming by Afghanistan on river Kabul is chosen as a lens through which the
frame of this study is being viewed to figure out a model for „conflict prevention’
and „dispute resolution‟ on blue gold. Figure 1 contains schematic diagram of
conceptual framework.
Figure 1 Schematic Diagram of the Conceptual Framework
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Theory of the topic has been generated by taking note of relevant factors. It has
been used as the primary guideline for further literature survey and analysis. Let
us look up certain dimensions of this issue.
DISCUSSION
Pakistan’s factor in Afghanistan
Pakistan and Afghanistan relationship has witnessed highs and lows since 1947.
Afghanistan is now included in South Asia. India and Pakistan are nuclear archenemies in this region. Pakistan sees Afghanistan‟s close ties with India as
security threat (Usman 2012:45-58). Kashmir problem between Indo-Pakistan has
a nexus with hydro-politics (Siddiqui, 2010:212). Chain of Indian hydel-power
projects on three Western Rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus allocated to Pakistan
under Indus Water Treaty 1960) is a doctrine aimed at drying up economy of
Pakistan (Briscoe, 2010:4). Its eastern borders are still unsafe due to IndoPakistan rivalry. India‟s „silent aggression‟ by financing Afghanistan to build
array of dams on River Kabul to the detriment of Pakistan‟s economy will have
corresponding effect on agrarian (Malik, 2010:6, Malik, 2010:8 & Bakhshi et al,
2011) economy of Pakistan. 22% of its GDP is agricultural and 42% of its labour
force is engaged in agriculture (CIA World Facebook, 2006). It would jeopardize
hydro-power generation from the existing units like Warsak dam. The same also
may prove fatal to new units, if Pakistan ever plans to construct small dams at
downstream level. This rift in their working relationship is likely to make western
boundary of Pakistan unsafe as well.
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Indian factor in Afghanistan
India has competing interests vis-à-vis Pakistan in Afghanistan since 1947
(Usman, 2012: 45-58). Indian foreign policy towards Afghanistan has three-fold
objectives, i) containment of Taliban to neutralize Pakistan‟s help to Jihad in
Kashmir (Zaman, 2003); ii) support of democratic process to install pro-India
government in Afghanistan to plug extremist and religious movements, which
provide an impetus to the minorities in India to rise for separatism (Baluch &
Niazi, 2008:18); and iii) achieving a leading position to counter Pakistan‟s
influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia (Baluch & Niazi, 2008:18). India has
not yet confirmed its financial support for all 12 dams on Kabul River in
Afghanistan (Bakhshi et al, 2011) except two dams (Daily Mail, 2010). India is
currently one of the Afghanistan‟s largest donors. It has invested $ 1.3 billion on
infrastructure projects in Afghanistan (Kugelman et al, 2011), which will equip
India with hydro-influence in Afghanistan (Bakhshi et al, 2011).
Afghanistan’s position on this issue
After a long trauma, Afghanistan is emerging as a democratic state in South Asian
politics. It lacks hydro-development. Its existing water reservoirs had been built
during 1920-1940. Despite availability of enough water, it is far behind in
harnessing it for its needs. Geographically, its mountainous region is flood and
drought-prone. National interests of Afghanistan genuinely demand the
development of a sound water infrastructure including (Bakhshi et al, 2011) dams
for its agriculture, energy and urbanization, and security and stability in South
Asia.
International Law Perspective on Water-related Conflict Resolution
In the absence of Pak-Afghan treaty on River Kabul, the matters between coriparians are to be regulated under international law regime comprising, i)
customary international law; ii) conventions, declaration, and rules; and iii)
classic works of international publicists. International courtesy demands of upper
riparians to let the flow of water to the lower-riparians unaffected both
qualitatively and quantitatively. This unwritten precept is a part of general
principles of international law (Shaw, 2003:55-60) as well. The Madrid
Declaration 1911 (Yaqoob, 2004:119-25) had reaffirmed this trite tenet to
discourage basin alterations and harmful modifications of international rivers,
which in this age include: artificial works, hydro-power generation projects and
dams with capacity to store waters, reservoirs and diversions of rivers to create
„river-run canals‟. The teachings of highly qualified publicists of various nations
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constitute a subsidiary source of international law (Statute of ICJ: Art. 38). The
flow of Transboundary Rivers is not (Oppenheim, 1989:474-75) within the
arbitrary powers of any riparian state.
Other existing laws: 1) Helsinki Rules 1966; 2) Berlin Rules 2004; and 3) U N
Convention 1997 highlight these precepts: - i) equitable distribution of shared
watercourses; and ii) commitment to use such waters … without causing
substantial injury to a co-riparian state. This position of International law is a
curser to a very critical aspect of international relations, i.e., how much important
the hydro-politics on the world stage is and what ought to be the rules of the
game.
International Relations View Point on Water
Water conflicts are „New Issues in IR‟ (Jackson & Sorensen, 1998:251-55) and if
peace is to be built in any area where water-related conflicts exist, as Middle East,
it has to be by resolving conflict over water (Jackson & Sorensen, 1998:254;
Gleick, 1993: 79-112 & Lowi, 1993:113-38). Pak-Afghan row over water is a
matter of grave concern in South Asia. Of course, there is no ready-made recipe
for resolving or preventing conflicts as every conflict is unique. Lessons can,
however, be learnt from experience with conflict prevention, as is the case of
Indo-Pakistan. Conflict resolution is a new philosophy which should be defined in
more detail (Mekenkamp, Tongeren & Veen, 2002: 47).
Afghanistan, Pakistan and India will remain the major flashpoints in South Asia
due to regional disputes (Mekenkamp et al, 2002: 262-63 & Khan, 2005:262-63).
Geography of states in their relations inter se occupies significance in
international politics (Rourke, 2005: 234-35). Geo-strategic position of
Afghanistan is of importance to Pakistan. Afghans have not fully accepted
Durand Line as an international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan
(Hagerty, 2006: 116).
Treatment of the entire river basin as a single economic entity (Siddiqui, 2010:
58) is one of recognized modes to resolve water-related conflicts. The parties in
particular and other stake-holders of regional and global peace in general need to
attend to this rift aptly for Pak-Afghan progress and South Asian tranquility.
Regional and Local Factors
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A sound water infrastructure is a need of Afghanistan, where rehabilitation work
has begun, which includes construction of dams (Hagerty, 2006:126-27 & 19495). Largest area in Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan is around the Kabul and
Swat rivers (Bengali, 2003:27). Distributory channels of River Kabul irrigate
districts of Peshawar, Charsadda and Noshera. Experts had suggested Pak-Afghan
covenant during 2003 (Thomas, 2014). Afghan Government did not cooperate on
the idea floated by World Bank and USAID for a treaty between them during
2006 (Thomas, 2014). After US Congress Report 2011 that „Water Scarcity Could
Fuel Dangerous Tension‟, WB and USAID attempted to hold a Pak-Afghan
dialogue but Government of Afghanistan refused to discuss water rights (Thomas,
2014). Similar efforts made during 2013 also ended in smoke (Thomas, 2014).
India considers it cheaper to engage Pakistan in Afghanistan than in Kashmir
(Report of CSIS, 2009). Pakistan views Afghan damming as an Indian plan to
capture market and resources for encircling Pakistan by establishing civil and
military relations with Afghanistan (Usman, 2012: 45-58). In the post-Taliban
scenario, Afghanistan is important to both India and Pakistan for economic,
security and strategic reasons. India is investment on developing infrastructure
including dams to have a say in Afghanistan affairs (Kerr, 2011). Pakistan is
using its contiguity, transit-trade and financial aid to gain influence in
Afghanistan (Usman, 2012:45-58). Trust-deficit between Afghanistan and
Pakistan is likely to turn into a transboundary water dispute.
Treaty as a Viable Mode to Resolve Water-related Conflict
International treaties as the primary source of international law (Starke, 1984:40)
defining rights and obligations of parties are binding on them under the doctrine
of pacta sunt servanda (Rourke 2005:270). In the absence of treaties, the states
may resort to wars as a means to secure resources necessary to meet their
domestic needs (Beiltz, 1979: 141-42) and victim state may not be able to
vindicate its grievance against a delinquent country before any international
forum including ICJ as mere proof as to existence of „legal dispute‟ ((Shaw, 2003:
751) is not enough. Want of consent from either side takes the matter out of
optional jurisdiction of ICJ under Article 36 (2) of its Statute.
To take any such conflict to International Court of Arbitration (ICA) also depends
upon consent of contending states (Agarwal, 1995:416). Obduracy on the part of
either side normally becomes a stumbling block in referring it to ICA. Diplomacy
is definitely yet another mode for settlement of inter-state controversies. But
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obstinacy of either side to a conflict ends up in failure to resolve a controversy.
How to resolve such controversy and by whom, are questions which beg answer.
Peace through treaty is not impossible as it is easy to enforce a treaty at
international level than rights and obligations created under general principles of
international law. Permanent resolution of outstanding conflict on water is
necessary for peace (Gleick, 1993: 79-112, Jackson & Sorensen, 1998: 253-54 &
Lowi, 1993: 113-38) between states sharing waters from common basin.
CONCLUSION
Indo-Pakistan rivalry has no direct nexus with Pak-Afghan rift over River Kabul.
Contextual reality is that it is a row between them alone. Modern water
infrastructure is a genuine need of Afghanistan for its economic welfare. Chain of
dams within its own territory over Kabul River will be enabling Afghanistan as
upper-riparian to temper with flow of water to lower-riparian (Pakistan) thereby
affecting their relationship. It may occasion arms clash between them. “Struggle
by nations to secure resources of clean water would be potent fuel for war and the
water crisis in South Asia was troubling” (Malik, 2010:8). Diplomacy and
collaboration with World Bank may be used to set this controversy at rest once
and for all. The parties need to redefine their respective foreign policies towards
each other subject to their „national interests‟. Solution to this issue lies in a
bilateral settlement.
Descriptive-cum-prescriptive provisions of IWT and tenets of international law
regime provide certain parameters to prepare model to resolve this water-related
issue. The mutual arrangement may provide for:
1. Treatment of Kabul River as sub-basin by its joint investment,
construction, management and control;
2. Budgeting of water by a formula for domestic, commercial, consumptive,
and non-consumptive uses;
3. Permissibility of run-of-river hydel-projects subject to limit of number of
projects without creating huge live storages at upstream;
4. Installation of „Telemetry Systems‟ at up-n-down streams to ensuring
transparency on use and flow of water ;
5. Mechanism for resolving differences: Categorizing matters of pure
technical nature as differences and matters of complex nature as disputes;
6. Forums for resolution of controversy: i) Kabul River Water Commission
(KRWC) for resolving „difference‟; and ii) International Court of
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Arbitration (ICA) for resolving „disputes‟. KRWC is to consist of two
Water Commissioners, one each to be taken from either country;
7. Mode for exchange of water data (discharges, flows, stoppages and
releases) between them on fortnightly basis; and
8. Annual inspection by Commissioners or state representatives in respect of:
i) development of single sub-basin, ii) existing works, iii) ongoing and iv)
future works, if any, on the River for verification to ensure transparency
on sharing and use of waters.
By fitting these criteria appropriately into a mutual arrangement to be inked
between them, water-related controversy can be prevented from becoming a
problem.
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