Changes in Arctic
Weather:
Traditional Knowledge
Meets Modern Science
Betsy Weatherhead, Shari Gearheard,
Roger Barry
U. Colorado at Boulder
Climate Change Foci
• Traditional climate
change science:
– Changes in mean values
• Temperature,
precipitation, etc.
– Changes in extreme events
• droughts, hurricanes, etc.
• Traditional Knowledge:
– Weather is more
unpredictable
– Changes in the quality of
the snow
– Changes in variability
“The Earth is Faster Now”
Uggianaqtuq
ACIA
Baker Lake
X
Day to Day Autocorrelation
Baker Lake 19Z
1.0
▓
0.8
▓
▓ ▓
▓ ▓
▓
▓▓
▓▓
▓
▓▓▓
▓ ▓
0.6
▓
▓
▓
▓
▓ ▓▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
▓ ▓
▓▓ ▓▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
0.4
▓
▓ ▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
▓
0.2
▓
0.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
34
32
30
28
temperature (F)
36
autocorrelation of 0.8
0
20
40
60
80
60
80
day
34
32
30
28
temperature (F)
36
autocorrelation of 0.2
0
20
40
day
Day to Day Autocorrelation
NP
60N
30N
EQ
30S
60S
SP
ac<1.0
ac<0.8
ac<0.6
ac<0.4
ac<0.2
In a more global context, the weather is
getting more persistent
Trend in Autocorrelation from MSU
Change per Decade
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.0
60 S
30 S
EQ
Latitude
30 N
60 N
Breakdown of the Arctic Boundary
Layer
Further impacts
• The breakdown of the boundary
layer can allow upper tropospheric
air to mix freely with the lower
atmosphere.
– Brings in dry, polluted air
– Removes moisture
– Allows for more evaporation
• Future for the Arctic?
– Understanding the phenomenon will be
critical to determine if this phenomenon
is likely to continue.
What difference does it make in
the Arctic?
• Erratic change in weather may mean an
abandonment of traditional lifestyles
• Snow characteristics are strongly affected
by patterns of melt and freeze
• Ecosystems can be impacted by erratic
weather during sensitive times of
development
• Precipitation changes?
• Permafrost changes?
What difference does it make
globally?
• Changes in persistence can
affect human health,
ecosystems and agriculture
– Variations can become stressors
– Human health
– Ecosystems
– Agriculture
• Understanding the causes will
be critical to understanding
future risk.
Returning to the Inuit
• Future for the Arctic?
– Understanding the phenomenon will be
critical to determine if this phenomenon is
likely to continue.
– Some months, traditional knowledge may
work well.
– Some years, are riskier than others.
• More generally,
– Understanding of our environment can come
from a variety of sources, expressed in a
variety of ways.
– Cross-disciplinary work may result in
breakthroughs that are unexpected.