University of Kentucky
UKnowledge
Theses and Dissertations--Political Science
Political Science
2015
Terrain, Trains, and Terrorism: The Influence of
Geography on Terrorism in India
Andrea Malji
University of Kentucky, [email protected]
Recommended Citation
Malji, Andrea, "Terrain, Trains, and Terrorism: The Influence of Geography on Terrorism in India" (2015). Theses and Dissertations-Political Science. 15.
http://uknowledge.uky.edu/polysci_etds/15
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Andrea Malji, Student
Dr. Clayton Thyne, Major Professor
Dr. Clayton Thyne, Director of Graduate Studies
iii
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vii
viii
viii
ix
1
From Kashmir to Kolkata
The Terrorism Experience throughout India
1
2
modus
operandi
3
Ethno-Nationalist Terrorism throughout Asia and the World
4
5
6
Goals
7
Why it Matters?
8
status quo
9
10
What is Terrorism?
11
political
12
Table 1.1
Terrorism Criteria
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Political Motive
Intent to Influence Broader Audience
Organized Group
Target Civilians
Non-State Actor
Premeditated
intention of influencing a broader audience
13
involvement of an organized
group
targeting of civilians
14
non-state actor
premeditated
15
The Difficulty with Defining Terrorism
16
17
1
Global Terrorism Database: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
18
Why Terrorism?
19
Figure 1.1
20
Global Distribution of Terror Attacks 1970-2013
Figure 1.2
21
22
Figure 1.3
23
Why India?
24
Terrorism in India
2
Although the GTD lists Colombia and Peru as having the most terrorist attacks, over 50% of these attacks
had 0 fatalities. Most of the terrorist attacks in India had at least 1-10 fatalities, while many attacks had
hundreds.
3
An ethnic minority includes Muslims, scheduled tribes or castes, and Naxalites, who may not always be
members of a minority group but claim to represent their interests.
25
26
Figure 1.4
Source Survey of India, 2014
27
Figure 1.5
Source Survey of India, 2014
28
Figure 1.6
Source Survey of India, 2014
29
The Plan of the Dissertation
30
31
32
2
Terrorism, Terrain, and Conflict around the World
Theoretical Frameworks
33
Relative Deprivation
Rational Choice Theory
34
not
35
Collective Action Approach
36
37
Explaining Terrorism
38
Poverty
poverty are the root causes of
terrorism (Gorlick, 2009). The archbishop of Canterbury suggested that
39
40
41
Pakistan’s Taliban Generation
Limitations of the Poverty Literature
42
hawala
43
Inequality
44
45
46
Limitations of the Inequality Literature
47
48
Geography
Nations are born, grow, fight, conquer, are conquered, become empires, and rise and fall
on the great stage of physical geography and human passions and knowledge, and not on
the homogeneous white planes on which we draw our diagrams.- Kenneth Boulding
Geography and Development
49
50
51
52
53
Geography and Conflict
54
Limitations of the Geography Literature
55
Geography, Ethnicity and Social Exclusion
56
Terrorism and Separatism in India
Background
57
58
59
Colonial Legacy and Early Days of Independence
60
61
62
Ethnicity
63
64
Poverty and Inequality
65
66
67
68
3
The Argument: Trains, Terrain, and Terrorism
69
Theoretical Expectations
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
+
+
Rugged Geography
International Borders
3
3
Terrorism
Figure 3.1
70
Legacies of Exclusion
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
Figure 3.2
71
72
73
74
75
76
Excluded Areas of India Under British Rule
Figure 3.3
Excluded Areas
77
78
The Railway
What a glorious change the railway has made in old and neglected India!
Tamil, Telegu, Canarese, Marathi, Gujarati, Hindustani, Bengali, populations which had been isolated for unmeasured ages, now easily
mingle in civilized confusion. In my various long journeys it has
repeatedly struck me that if India is to become a homogenized nation, and
is ever to achieve solidarity, it must be by means of the railway as a means
of transport (47).
79
80
81
82
83
Underdevelopment
84
85
Political Underdevelopment
86
87
88
Social Underdevelopment
89
Poverty Rate by State
Figure 3.4
90
It is impossible for us, with our limited means, to attempt to educate the
body of the people. We must at present do our best to form a class who
may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern; a class
of persons, Indian in blood and colour, but English in taste, in opinions, in
morals, and in intellect. To that class we may leave it to refine the
vernacular dialects of the country, to enrich those dialects with terms of
science borrowed from the Western nomenclature, and to render them by
degrees fit vehicles for conveying knowledge to the great mass of the
population (Macaulay 1835)
91
4
Deemed universities are high-performing universities within India that are given autonomy to set their
own course work, admissions, and fees (University Grants Commission,1956) .
92
93
94
Economic Underdevelopment
95
H1: As a district’s distance to a rail station increases, the number of terrorist attacks in
that district should increase.
H2: As a district’s level of development increases, the number of terrorist attacks in that district should decrease.
96
Geography
Geography: Theoretical Expectations
Underdevelopment:
+
+
Rugged Geography
International Borders
3
3
Terrorism
Figure 3.5
97
Forests and Jungles
To our men the jungle was a strange, fearsome place; moving and fighting
in it were a nightmare. We were too ready to classify jungle as
impenetratable-
98
Fight the
guerrilla like a guerrilla,’ 99
100
101
102
103
H3: As a district’s percentage of forested terrain increases, the number of terror attacks in that district should also increase.
H4: As a district’s elevation increases, the number of terror attacks in that district
should also increase.
International Borders
104
5
105
106
H5: As a district’s distance to international borders decreases, the number of terror
attacks in that district should increase.
107
108
4
Investigating the Relationship among Trains, Terrain, and Terrorism
109
110
Variables
Unit of Analysis
111
112
Dependent Variable
Independent Variables
113
114
115
Control Variables
116
).
117
118
119
State Level Analysis
Terrorist Attacks per Indian State 2000-2010
Figure 4.1
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Number of attacks
120
Table 4.1
State Level Characteristics of India
State
Goa
%
Attacks Forested
0 57
International
Border
No
Lit.
%
%
Rate
% SC ST
Muslim
88.7
1.7
0
6.84
Himachal
Pradesh
0 31
China
83.78
25.2 4.22
1.97
Sikkim
0 60
China
81.42
5.02 20.6
1.42
Uttarkhand
0 60
China; Nepal
Haryana
1 5
Rajasthan
71.6
17.9
2.9
11.92
No
75.55
20.2
0
5.78
2 7
Pakistan
66.11 17.16 12.6
8.47
Gujarat
3 12
Pakistan
Madya Pradesh
4 24
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
7.09 14.8
9.06
No
65.38 15.17 23.3
6.37
5 45
No
93.91
9.81
1.5
24.7
5 16
No
83
19
1.1
5.56
Mizoram
6 90
Myanmar;
Bangladesh
0.1 94.9
1.14
Punjab
6 4
Pakistan
Karnataka
11 21
No
78
93.91
75
75.6
31.9
0
1.57
16.2 4.26
12.23
121
Uttar Pradesh
23 5
Nepal
67.68
Meghalaya
27 79
Bangladesh
Nagaland
73 79
Maharashtra
0.6
18.5
74.43
0.6 85.9
4.28
Myanmar
76.88
0 86.5
1.76
89 16
No
66.59
10.2 8.85
10.6
Tripura
95 77
Bangladesh;
Myanmar
94.65 17.37 31.1
7.95
Orissa
261 28
No
63.61 16.53 22.1
2.07
Bihar
305 7
Nepal
63.82
4.3
1.3
18.1
Andhra Pradesh
324 15
No
61
16
8
18
West Bengal
352 13
Bangladesh
76.26
23.5
5.5
25.25
Jharkhand
382 26
No
66.4 16.35
1.3
13.85
Chhattisgarh
426 40
No
67.5
22.3 37.1
2.5
Manipur
587 66
Myanmar
79.21
2.62 32.3
8.81
Assam
909 30
Bhutan; Bangladesh
73.18
6.9 12.4
28.8
1974 35
Pakistan; China
65.57
7.59 10.9
66.97
5870 ~13
Pakistan, Nepal,
Bhutan, Bangladesh,
Myanmar, China
Jammu &
Kashmir
India
74
20.7
16.6
8.6
14.4
122
6
ULFA has one small off shoot called MULFA or Muslim United Liberation Front of Assam. Although the
organization’s members are Muslim, the group shares the same goal as the broader ULFA organization, which is independence from India (SATP, 2014).
123
District Level Analysis
124
Attacks by District 2000-2014
Figure 4.2
125
Table 4.2
Characteristics of the 30 Districts with Highest Number of Attacks
India average in parentheses
Mean # of
% with more
% with less
Mean literacy
Mean distance
attacks
than 30% forest
than 25 km to
rate
to railroad (km)
cover
intl. border
126
127
Table 4.3
Results: District Level Analysis
Forested
Elevation
Elevation^2
Distance to Border
Scheduled Caste
Scheduled Tribe
Population Density
Percent Muslim
Literacy Rate
Train Station
Observations
Pseudo R2
Prob > chi2
LR chi2
AIC
BIC
Df
With Kashmir
Min
Max
0.047**
1.54
18.79
(0.007)
-0.001**
5.79
0.0002
(0.0005)
2.48*
70.26
23.16
(1.52)
-0.009**
70.26
23.16
(0.0002)
-0.00**
54
44
(0.0157)
-0.006**
44.52
100.18
(0.008)
0
(0.0004)
0.01**
39.33
139.31
(0.0087)
-0.06**
1.07
10.26
(0.0001)
0.001**
2.99
14.75
(7.98)
516
0.0783
0
154.02
1836.199
1886.894
12
%∆ 1120
-99.99
-67.03
-67.03
-18.51
125
125
-89.57
393
Without
Kashmir Min
Max
0.024**
21.81 206.995
(0.01)
-0.001
276.22
4.737
(0.0005)
0.002
(0.0006)
-0.00**
21.28
1.1
(0.00)
-0.005
(0.021)
0.011
(0.01)
-0.00
(0.0004)
0.0006
(0.0123)
-0.03**
181.97
22.77
(0.012)
0.02**
2.91
13.6
(0.005)
501
0.050
0.000
115.660
1982.000
2020.209
9
%∆ 849
-98.28
-94.8
-87.48
367.35
128
129
130
131
132
133
Figure 4.3
7
Figures 4.3-4.7 have large confidence intervals, this is a result of how the data is distributed. Attempts at
transforming the variable through normalizing, logging, or dropping outliers had only nominal or no effect
on the confidence intervals.
134
Figure 4.4
135
Figure 4.5
136
Figure 4.6
137
Figure 4.7
138
Mapping the Data
139
Forested Terrain and Terrorist Attacks using GIS
Figure 4.8
Three things are evident once the data is visualized in figure 4.8. First, attacks are
most frequent in the most forested regions of India. The most heavily forested regions,
which occur in Northeast India in the states of Manipur and Assam, have the highest
concentration of attacks. Nearly every district in the densely forested Northeast has
140
141
Rail Networks
142
Terrain, Rail Network, and Terror Attacks in Kashmir
Figure 4.9
143
Terrain, Rail Network, and Terror Attacks in Northeast India
Figure 4.10
Terrain, Rail Network, and Terror Attacks in the Naxal Belt
Figure 4.11
144
Conclusions
145
146
147
5
Experiences of Terrain and Terrorism in Tamil Nadu, Uttarkhand, Assam, and
Nigeria
148
149
Tamil Nadu
150
The Development of Madras and modern Tamil Nadu
151
152
Lessons from Tamil Nadu
153
Uttarkhand and the Chipko Movement
Soil ours, water ours, ours are these forests. Our forefathers raised them, it’s we who must protect them.
Traditional Chipko Song
154
155
Theoretical Expectations
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
+
+
Rugged Geography
Intl. Borders
Terrorism
Figure 5.1
156
157
The Development of Uttarkhand
158
It is unfortunate that due to socio-political and geographical reasons, the
entire Northeast India has remained neglected and backward from the
developmental point of view The basic needs for tourism development of
the region are efficient infrastructure, good connectivity between the
states and peace in the region. The entry permit formality required for a
few states for both domestic and international tourists is a major deterrent
for the region’s tourist attractiveness (37).
159
Lessons from Uttarkhand
160
161
Assam and ULFA
162
Causal Arrows 1 and 2
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
Political, Economical, Social
Figure 5.2
Background of Grievances
163
164
165
166
The Terrorism Climate of Assam
Terrorism Climate of Assam
Colonial Exclusion
Underdevelopment
+
+
Rugged Geography
Intl. Borders
Terrorism
Figure 5.3
167
168
169
Lessons from Assam
170
Beyond India
171
172
Nigeria and Boko Haram
173
Background
174
175
176
Nigerian Population Living on Less than $2 per Day
Figure 5.4
Source: World Bank, 2013
177
178
Lessons Learned from Nigeria
179
Lessons Learned from the Case Studies
180
181
6
Conclusions and Policy Implications
182
183
184
185
186
187
Terrorism is Bad for the Economy, but Development Alone is Not the Answer
188
Recommendation 1: Reward companies that invest in Northeast India, the Naxal
Belt, and Kashmir, employ locals, and invest in the local community. Punish
companies that pay extortion fees.
189
190
Recommendation 2: Invest extensively in the development of the railway and
highway network in the states of Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya,
Kashmir, Chhattisgarh, and Arunachal Pradesh.
191
Recommendation 3: Continue to cooperate with neighbors. A strong relationship
with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan are essential.
192
Final Thoughts
193
The only alternative to coexistence is codestruction. - Jawaharlal Nehru
194
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Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa.
Economic Development and Cultural Change.
Small Wars and Insurgencies
Contemporary South Asia.
217
The Politics of History: Aryan Invasion Theory and the Subversion
of Scholarship.
The Naxalite Challenge,
International Journal of the
Sociology of
Language
International Policy
Digest.
Journal of Economic Growth.
Modern Asian Studies.
Worldwatch
Institute.
Corruption and State Politics in Sierra Leone.
Press Trust
of India.
Reuters.
Walking with the Comrades.
Terrorism: An
International Journal
Contemporary Terrorism: Selected Readings.
218
The Tribes and Castes of the Central Provinces of India
The Washington
Quarterly.
NBER
Nature Insight
Center for International Development and Harvard Institute for International
Development.
Center for
International Development at Harvard University
Foreign Affairs.
Sociology Compass.
Understanding Terror Networks.
Covering Islam: How the Media and the Experts Determine How We
See the Rest of the World.
Rebels Without Borders. Transnational Insurgencies in World
Politics.
Transnational Insurgencies and the Escalation of Regional
Conflict: Lessons for Iraq and Afghanistan.
International Organization.
219
American Journal of Sociology
British Journal of Political Science
Third World Quarterly
Der Spiegel.
The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism Research.
The Art of Not Being Governed: An Anarchist History of Upland
Southeast Asia.
Development as Freedom.
Indian Defence Review.
DNA India.
The New Indian Express.
Juvenile Delinquency in Urban Areas.
Mountain Research and Development.
Open Democracy
220
Perspectives on Terrorism.
Institutute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
International Studies Quarterly
International Studies Review.
Environmental Behavior.
Terror in the Name of God.
Oxford Development Studies.
The Hindu.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/assamterror-bombing-trail-leads-to-ndfb/article1373055.ece
221
Pakistan: A Modern History.
International Security
International Studies Quarterly
The
Times of India.
Times of India.
Sacred Groves of Meghalaya: Status and Strategies for
Conservation.
Democracy in America
The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and
the Indivisibility of Territory.
Business Week.
UNDP in Nepal: Annual Report
2013.
EFA Global Monitoring Report 2006.
India’s Fragile Borderlands: The Dynamics of Terrorism in North
East India.
222
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield.
Terrain Analysis.
Journal of Peace Research
‘
Knowledge at Wharton: Leadership.
Civic Life and Ethnic Conflict: Hindus and Muslims in India
The War Puzzle.
Journal of Peace Research
Politics of the Developing Nations.
The Guardian.
and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical
Illustrations.
AlJazeera America.
The Making of Terrorism.
223
The Spirit Level: Why More Equal
Societies Almost Always Do Better.
Terrorism versus Democracy: The Liberal State Response.
Frontline.
“
British Medical Journal
Development and Growth in Northeast India: The Natural
Resources, Water, and Environment.
Inequality in Focus: Analyzing the World Banks Goal of Achieving
Shared Prosperity.
Twentieth Century Impressions of Ceylon: Its History, People,
Commerce, Industries, and Resources.
Social Justice Research, Vol. 4(2): pp.
Shaping of Modern Gujarat: Plurality,
Hindutva, and Beyond.
The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and
Abroad.
The Post American World.
Acta Sociologica.
224
Vita
Educational Background:
Professional Positions:
Honors and Awards:
Professional publications
Aviation Security International
The Diplomatic Courier.
Aviation Security International
Andrea Malji
225