December 2016
Editor: Amy Quinn
Welcome to December’s Newsletter
Ciarán Carroll
Welcome to the December edition
of our monthly newsletter. As we
come to the end of another year,
prospects in the sector seem to be
more stable than they have been
in quite a while. Data presented
by Michael McKeon at the recent Teagasc
Outlook conference indicate that pig price is
expected to average at 149 cent per kg
deadweight for the year (up 1% on 2015) with
feed costs expected to average at 106 cent per kg
deadweight giving a margin over feed for 2016 of
43 cent per kg deadweight. While this is below
the target 50 cent/kg deadweight it is much
improved, up 14% on 2015 (37 cent per kg
deadweight) and gives reason to be hopeful as
we enter 2017.
diseases within our farms. Make it a new year’s
resolution to get your Specialist Pig Advisor or vet
to complete the BioCheck biosecurity scoring
checklist for your farm if you haven’t already
done so!
It’s been a very busy year for the Pig
Development Department, with great progress
continuing in our research, advisory and
education programmes (see some highlights
further on in this newsletter).
Finally, may I take this opportunity to wish you
and your family a happy and peaceful Christmas
and here’s to a prosperous new year.
In this issue:
The end of year also provides us with an
opportunity to review our management practices
and it is timely that we should focus on the
biosecurity and hygiene practices on our farms.
The outbreak of avian flu on a turkey farm in the
UK in the last few days highlights the need for
vigilance, to keep disease out of our farms and to
focus on practices that can prevent the spread of




PDD year review
Antimicrobial resistance: What
can farmers do?
Better pig welfare leads to better
pig health
Pig industry review & outlook
Another busy year for the Pig Development Department!
Ciarán Carroll
It’s been another busy year for the Pig
Development Department (PDD), and while the
opening of our new state-of-the-art pig research
facility takes centre stage great progress was
made in a number of other key areas in our
research, advisory and education programmes,
some of which are highlighted below.
Teagasc Pig Research Facility
The highlight of the year was the completion of
the new Pig Research Facility at Teagasc
Moorepark. This culminated with a “walkthrough” of the new facility in late May, which
saw a crowd of almost 300 people attend over
two days. All were equally impressed and the
feedback has been hugely positive. We now have
a state-of-the-art 200 sow integrated herd
research facility and with the growing number of
research staff and students we can look to the
future with confidence and in anticipation of a
great research programme driven by pig producer
and industry input.
PDD Strategy Document
The Teagasc Pig Research, Advisory, Education
and Training Programme 2016-2020 document
was published and circulated. Reviewed and
agreed by the Teagasc Pig Stakeholders Group
along with external review by Dr. Malachy Young,
Gowans Consulting, Canada, it outlines our
programme for the next few years, detailing the
key initiatives and projects that we will be
working on for the pig sector.
Cost reduction & welfare workshops
Given the poor returns in the sector we organised
a number of well attended workshops earlier in
the year which focused on cost reductions at farm
level at various locations. A welfare workshop
also took place in May.
Research dissemination days
The second annual Research Dissemination Day
series took place in April with researchers and
students providing an update on their projects. A
number of projects ended (or will end) this year
while approval has been granted for some new
projects (DAFM and Teagasc funded). We now
have seven researchers and 16 postgrad students
working on various projects and we look forward
to an update on progress at the 2017 Research
Dissemination Days.
International conferences
A number of Teagasc PDD staff were involved in
organising and presenting at some high profile
international conferences throughout the year
including the European Pig Producers Congress;
the International Pig Veterinary Science Congress;
the International Conference of Production
Diseases; the European Federation of Animal
Science and the International Livestock Manure
Conference.
Farm visits & e-Profit monitor
Farm visits continue to be a priority for
disseminating information to pig farmers and for
reviewing current performance on farm with a
view to targeting improvements. Of course
analysis of accurate records is essential for this to
succeed and 2016 has seen further progress, with
97,000 sows now on the Teagasc ePM PigSys
system. The ePM data provides the Advisor with
the information they need to be able to evaluate
performance and target improvements. It also
enables benchmarking at National and
International (via our involvement with the
InterPig group) level.
Discussion groups
Discussion groups continue to give producers an
opportunity to meet with other like-minded
farmers to share their data and ideas on how best
to improve performance at farm level. We now
have seven committed groups (with over 70
farmers and 60,000 sows) involved and hope to
develop more groups next year.
Teagasc Pig Farmer’s Conference
The annual Teagasc Pig Farmer’s Conferences
were held at Horse & Jockey and Cavan in
October and were very well attended.
Carbon navigator & antibiotic usage calculator
Other recent developments include a carbon
navigator and antibiotic usage monitor. Working
with Bord Bia and the Carbon Trust, Teagasc PDD
have developed a tool for monitoring the carbon
footprint of pig production in Ireland. While the
footprint is one of the lowest in Europe, this tool
will support verification of the Irish footprint and
enable better marketing of Irish pig meat at home
and abroad as consumers increase their focus on
the environmental impact of their food. Another
key area of focus is Antimicrobial Resistance
(AMR) and greater focus on the reduced use of
antibiotics in animal production is on the way.
Teagasc have adapted a monitor which can help
farmers to monitor their current usage and target
reductions where possible.
Education
2016 saw the completion of a Level 5 Course in
Pig Production, the third of its kind since their
inception in 2009. We also commenced a new
QQI Level 5 course in pig production in August,
with over 40 students attending between
Ballyhaise and Moorepark/Clonakilty. The
development of a Level 6 Course in Pig Farm
Management is at an advanced stage following
QQI approval of the modules in November and
we hope to roll out this course in 2017.
Another new development in education has been
the presentation of an “Overview of Irish Pig
Production” to students at Ag Colleges followed
by organised visits to a modern commercial pig
farm. In November over 60 students from
Clonakilty Agricultural College visited a nearby
farm and the feedback has been very positive.
This was preceded by attendance of Specialist Pig
Development Officers and pig farmers at College
Open days with a view to promoting pig
production as a career option.
EUPIG project approval
EU funding approval for this project was granted
in August. This is a Research-KT-Industry project
which will focus on disseminating existing
research information via regional networking
groups across Europe.
Website & social media
Developments continued on our website which
was overhauled and updated during the year and
we now have a dedicated Teagasc Pig Twitter
account (@teagascpig) which will give regular
updates of what’s happening in the department
and wider pig sector here in Ireland.
Antimicrobial resistance: What can farmers do?
Edgar Garcia Manzanilla
A seminar on “Antimicrobial resistance: What can
farmers do?” organized by the DAFM, took place
on the 30th of November. This seminar is part of
the efforts DAFM is doing to raise awareness on
the importance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR)
and capture the needs of different stakeholders
including farmers, veterinarians, advisors,
factories and nutritionists to tackle this issue. This
will result in the soon to be released “National
AMR Action Plan” that will include actions at all
levels including monitoring and reducing the use
of antibiotics in animal production.
Minister of State Andrew Doyle opened the
session and experts from human health set the
scene at a global level. The misuse of antibiotics
and the resultant growing AMR causes an
estimated 700,000 deaths in hospitals across the
world. Last September AMR entered the WHO list
of the 3 most important health issues to tackle
worldwide.
AMR has to be addressed from a One Health
perspective including human, animal and
environmental actions. At the moment the use of
antibiotics in animals represents around 70% of
total use and the link between AB use on farm
and MRSA in humans confirms the threat.
Another good example is the recently identified
resistance to colistin, a last resource antibiotic, in
humans and pigs. We need to reduce
unnecessary use of antimicrobials in agriculture
and their dissemination into the environment. As
stated by pig farmers Eugene Sheehan and Tim
Cullinan, there are circumstances where
antibiotics are required in agriculture to maintain
animal welfare and food security. However, the
global use to prevent infections or to promote
growth, especially important in monogastric
species, has to be addressed.
Then representatives from different organisations
went into detail on the current situation and
future actions for pig and broiler chicken
production, the main species using antibiotics. As
it often happens in animal production, the
poultry industry seems to be ahead of the game
and they already use the concept “post-antibiotic
poultry
production”.
Several
actions
implemented at farm level were presented
showing that the reduction in the use of
antimicrobials is possible while keeping
maintaining production levels.
In the pig section, Chaired by Bill Callanan
(DAFM), Professor John O’Doherty gave a very
comprehensive review of the problems relating
to gut health at weaning and all the options
available from a management and nutrition point
of view to address this issue.
Professor Jeroen Dewulf, from Ghent University
showed how the use of biosecurity can produce
reductions in the use of antibiotics in pig farms at
the same time result in an increase in profit. The
solutions have to be tailor made for each farm
and the farmer needs to participate in the
decision making process and adopts the
appropriate measures that are simple and cost
effective for their farm. This biosecurity system,
Biocheck.Ugent, is being used at the moment by
Teagasc following the same system used by
Jeroen Dewulf and collaborators in Belgium,
Germany, France, Sweden and Denmark. What is
clear from all this research is that you may have a
short term benefit from regular use of antibiotics
but units relying on antibiotics to maintain
performance tend to forget the beneficial effect
of constant improvements to management and
biosecurity in the long term and thus long term
profit is reduced.
Teagasc researcher Edgar Garcia Manzanilla
presented the on-going projects currently being
carried out in relation to AMR. They range from
biosecurity improvement, respiratory disease
control at the farm and factory level, economic
evaluation of cost of diseases and monitoring the
use of antibiotics on farm. All of these projects
add up to nearly a 1.5 million euro investment
with the objective of reducing the use of
antibiotics without major losses for pig farmers.
An important point made in this presentation is
that this effort needs to be used as a marketing
advantage for Irish pork. With only 300 units in
the country improvement should be fast if
farmers take the lead and resources are
coordinated in the proper way.
But reducing the use of antibiotics at a farm level
is not a cheap or easy job. A very good example
of the process was given by Eugene Sheehan, a
farmer that has decreased his usage by 80% over
2 years and has actually improved his productivity
as a result. He explained the process in detail
remarking two important facts:
The actions taken to achieve such reduction
were:

A reduction in the level of protein from 21%
to 17% and the use of certain additives to
reduce digestive problems in piglets

A clear health plan to control PRRS, oedema
disease, PCV2 and mycoplasma by vaccination

Training for staff by the Teagasc FETAC course
and welfare training

Built
new
farrowing
and
weaning
accommodation to allow for a full week of
rest of the houses

Move from an all-in-all-out rule to a no pigs
are moved back or mixed between batches
approach

Including hot washing as part of the farrowing
and weaner house cleaning routines
On top of that, piglets are now moved faster
forward in the cycle to reduce issues caused by
high stocking densities, like tail or ear biting. All
these changes have resulted in a more efficient
and profitable production system which is
particularly important for a small scale farmer in
the long term.
Coming back to the actual concept of the “Health
plan”, veterinarian Mike Burke did a brilliant job
summarising all the concepts in 5 key questions
you should ask yourself about your farm:
1. Where is your health herd plan?
1. It needs team work between the farmer, the
veterinarian, the nutritionist and the advisor
2. It requires a constant effort improving several
details with economic cost associated
2. When did you last reviewed your vaccination
schedule and the protocols you use when
vaccinating pigs?
3. When did you last review your in-feed

There is a need to develop expertise and
medication schedule with your vet and do you
diagnostic services for the Irelands modern
know what each of the medications is trying
pig industry.

to achieve?
The feedback from factories should be
improved baesed on observations on what
4. Do you have a “all-in-all-out system” or a
other countries are doing. This is key
“most of them-in most of them-out” system?
information for the farmer to address
5. Do the staff on my unit understand the
problems they have in their units.
concept of biosecurity?

Setting targets at a farm and country level is
The realtionship between these questions and
needed and can be useful but this targets
the actions taken by Eugene Sheehan to reduce
have to be based on real information from a
antibiotic usage is quiet remarkable. In the same
simple monitoring system.
line of thought, farmer Tim Cullinan also went
into detail about all the measures that are in
The session was closed by Martin Blake, CVO.
place in his unit to have a low antibiotic usage. All
the presentations will be available soon in the
As a final conclusion:
DAFM website.
Reduction in antibiotic usage is achievable but
A very interesting debate took place after the
requires teamwork, perseverance and support.
presntations. Some remarks from this were:
Better pig welfare leads to better pig health
Laura Boyle
Many of you attended the recent seminar in
Mullingar on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in
the pig and poultry industries that was organised
by DAFM and reviewed in this newsletter by
Edgar Garcia Manzanilla.
At the meeting several stakeholders in the Irish
poultry industry referred to improvements to
poultry health arising from housing and
husbandry changes required under legislation
relating to poultry welfare. In fact this was the
second forum this autumn where the same
sentiments were expressed. One might argue
that the poultry industry was coming from a low
baseline and that any improvements made in
those areas would obviously improve poultry
health.
Alternatively we could take
encouragement from this experience and
consider how we could employ improvements to
the housing and husbandry of pigs required
under pig welfare legislation to help address the
AMR threat outlined by Prof. Cormican (NUI
Galway) in Mullingar.
susceptibility to co-infection of PRRSV and A.
pleuropneumoniae in pigs.
Sick/diseased/injured pigs clearly have poor
welfare. However, the scientific evidence is
mounting that poor animal welfare is also a driver
of poor health. In commercial confinement
systems animals are typically managed in high
density, low complexity, and otherwise suboptimal environments with regard to the animals’
biological needs. This not only causes poor
welfare (often reflected in damaging behaviours
such as tail and ear biting) but also elicits
inflammatory and stress responses in the body
which compromises the ability of the immune
system to fight pathogens.
Enriching the environment of pigs housed in fully
slatted systems is challenging. Current work
underway in the PDD and led by Keelin O’Driscoll
under the ENTAIL project will hopefully yield
some cost effective solutions. In the meantime
all pigs should be provided with devices which
can distract them from directing undesirable
behaviours towards their penmates. Chains and
‘toys’ are partly effective but ultimately pigs
prefer items that are destructible. Use your
ingenuity to come up with novel ideas!
A recent Dutch study investigated what would
happen in terms of “disease susceptibility” if pigs
were reared in housing that meet their biological
needs in terms of social and environmental
enrichment compared to pigs raised in a barren
environment. Using a co-infection model of
PRRSV and A. pleuropneumoniae they tested if
the pathological and clinical outcomes were
related to the different housing regimes and if
this was reflected in differences in behavioural
and immunological states of the animals.
Enriched housed pigs showed a faster clearance
of viral PRRSV RNA in blood serum and
histologically 2.8 fold less interstitial pneumonia
signs in the lungs. More barren than enriched
housed pigs developed lesions in the lungs and
the lesions in the barren housed pigs showed a
higher total pathologic tissue damage score than
those in enriched housed pigs. Enriched pigs
showed fewer stress-related behaviours and
differed immunologically and clinically from
barren housed pigs. The study clearly showed
that enriched housing reduces disease
Additionally there are other ways of improving
pig welfare that we can easily implement. The
first is to maintain correct stocking densities and
if Michael McKeon’s paper at this year’s pig
conference is anything to go by we should be
aiming to give more space than required under
the EU legislation. Given the recent impressive
increases in sow output this could be achieved by
reducing sow numbers, without reducing the
total kg of pigmeat sold. The resulting health and
performance benefits are likely to far outweigh
any losses in output incurred. Secondly I refer
you to Edgar Garcia’s Manzanilla’s paper at this
year’s pig conference where he described the
detrimental effects of continuous re-mixing of
pigs on growth rates and immunity.
These management changes are relatively easy
and cheap to apply and have the potential to
improve pig welfare and therefore pig health and
reduce AB use.
Review of Pig Sector in 2016 and Outlook for 2017
Michael McKeon
Introduction
Irish Pig Feed Costs 2016
In recent years (2012-2015) the low profitability
in the pig sector has being attributable to high
feed ingredient prices. While these were stable in
2016 the pig price unfortunately suffered large
fluctuations.
Feed prices were stable in 2016 after a number of
turbulent years. The large global harvests in
2014- 2016 ensured that world stocks were high
and therefore prices remained stable. The 2016
composite feed price per tonne is estimated to be
€291, a drop of 4% in composite feed cost per
tonne when compared to 2015.
During 2016, the low pig price relative to pig feed
prices, resulted in a very poor ‘Margin over Feed’
in the first half of the year. This reached a 20 year
low in March. Since then there has being a steady
recovery and the overall 2016 margin-over-feed is
estimated to be 43c/kg which equals the 5 year
average.
When the composite feed price is examined over
a longer period the 2016 price of €291 is lower
than the 5 year average (2012-2016) of €320 but
lower than the 10 year average (2007-2016) of
€295. Annual Irish composite pig feed prices are
shown in Figure 1, expressed in terms of the cost
per kg deadweight (dwt).
Figure 1: Irish pig feed cost 2001-2016
150
130
c per kg dwt
The Irish pigmeat market price was high in early
2015, despite the closure of the Russian market,
due to a disease outbreak in the U.S. The disease
(PEDv) was contained in the latter half of 2015,
which led to renewed growth in global pigmeat
stocks and a consequential slump in the
European pig price. This slump continued until
mid-2016 creating very difficult cashflow
conditions for producers.
110
90
Irish Pig Production Costs 2016
The cost of producing pigmeat in Ireland can be
broken into feed cost and non-feed costs. Feed
currently constitutes 68 per cent of the total cost
of producing a pig, with the non-feed inputs
contributing the remaining 32 per cent. The
primary source of volatility from 2012-2015 had
been feed cost but since then the pig price has
been the main volatility influence on profitability.
70
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
The composite compound feed price remained
extremely stable throughout the year. Monthly
pig feed prices for 2016 are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Purchased Irish compound feed prices in 2016
Table 2: Non-feed costs in ePM recorded herds
Month
Cost Item
Composite Feed
Price (€)/ Ton
Feed Cost
cent / kg dwt
January
299
109
February
298
109
March
298
109
April
298
109
May
289
105
June
289
105
July
289
105
August
289
105
September
289
105
October
288
104
November*
285
103
December*
283
102
Average
291
106
* Estimate / Forecast
Non-feed costs in Irish Pig Production in 2016
The variable and fixed costs can be separated into
Non-feed Costs and Financial Costs. The data
quoted for the Irish industry is collected from
herds using the Teagasc ePM herd recording
system which records, analyses and benchmarks
herd productivity and financial performance.
There are currently 96,000 sows on the database
from a national herd of about 146,000 (67% of
total). The costs quoted are based on the national
2015 ePM data, which are the most recent
analysis of annualised costs available. Non-feed
costs are itemised in Table 2.
2011-2015
cent per kg dwt.
Healthcare
Heat, Power Light
Transport
AI
Manure
Labour/Management
Repairs
Phone/Office
Environment
Insurance
House rental
Contract Costs
Water
Dead Pigs Disposal
Stock Depreciation
Miscellaneous
Total
The annualised feed cost per kg dead weight of
106 cent is significantly lower than previous years
(132c/kg, 2012) and generated a modest annual
profit margin. This would have being significantly
greater if the pig price had not slumped in the
first quarter.
2015
6.2
4.2
1.2
1.8
1.5
13.3
2.2
1
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.5
0.4
0.7
1.8
1.2
39.6
6.3
4.2
1.2
1.6
1.6
12.6
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.4
0.6
1.1
1.4
35.0
The non-feed costs in 2015 were four cent per kg
dwt higher when compared to the previous five
year average, but ten cent higher than the 2012
price of 29.8 cent per kg dwt. The single largest
increase in 2015 costs when compared to 2013
was an increase in labour costs which rose by one
cent per kg dwt.
Financial Costs in Irish Pig Production in 2015
These costs include interest payments and
building depreciation and vary greatly from unit
to unit depending on the age of the unit and the
level of capital investment undertaken in the
business in recent years. Financial costs are
itemised in Table 3. We estimate that the cost of
building depreciation and interest is significantly
lower than the true level required for a healthy
pigindustry. This reflects the sector’s reduced
capital investment in recent years due to the low
profitability of the industry.
Table 3: Financial costs in ePM recorded herds
Table 4: Monthly Irish pig price in 2016
Cost Item
2015
2011-2015
Month
Pig Price
cent per kg dwt.
Month
Cent per kg dwt
Interest
1.4
1.9
January
Building Depreciation
4.4
3.6
138
February
Total
5.8
5.5
138
March
134
April
136
May
141
June
149
July
154
August
156
September
160
October
163
November*
160
December*
160
149
Total Cost of Irish Pig Production in 2016
The estimated annualised cost of production in
2016 (based on 2015 non-feed costs and 2016
feed costs) was 151 cent per kilogram dwt for
pigs delivered to the slaughter plant. This
production cost remained very stable throughout
the year reflecting the stable feed cost.
Irish Pig Prices in 2016
The estimated average pig price in 2016 was 149
cent which was significantly below the previous
five year average (2012-2016) of 161 cent.
The annualised 2016 pig price was a cent higher
than 2015 but this average hides large
fluctuations. The lowest monthly price was
134c/kg (March) and the highest was 164c/kg
(September), a 22% increase within 6 months.
The outbreak of PEDv disease in the US in 2014
reduced U.S pigmeat exports. This temporarily
helped the E.U. exporters to off-set the loss of the
important Russian export market. However by
mid-2015 the Irish pig price began to drop due to
the U.S. industry recovering and an oversupply of
EU pigmeat production.
This decline continued for the next 12 months,
until June 2016, with the lrish price falling to its
lowest ebb of 134c/kg in March.
Average
* estimated
Fortunately for European producers the Chinese
sow herd contracted dramatically in 2015 & 2016
with an estimated 12 million sows being culled,
which is equivalent to the total E.U. herd. This
resulted in the domestic Chinese pig price
escalating to the equivalent of $300/head and
triggered a surge of exports to China. The pig
price recovered across Europe in the latter half of
2016 to generate an annualised price similar to
2015.
Table 5: European pig prices January to October 2015 &
2016
Country
2015
2016
Jan – Oct
Jan – Oct
Change
Euro per kg
Euro per kg
%
PAYS-BAS VION
1.37
1.44
5.7
DK 61%
1.24
1.29
3.6
DE ZMP 56%
1.41
1.48
4.4
ES Llerida vif
1.16
1.13
-2.5
IT vif Modena
1.30
1.34
3.4
FR MPB 56%
1.26
1.29
2.7
Profitability of Irish Pig Production in 2016
The margin over feed costs per kg dwt in 2015
was 37 c/kg, the lowest since 1999. The margin in
2016 increased to a healthier 43 c/kg.
Table 6: Average margin over feed costs from compound
feed from 2008-2016
Year
Pig Price
(Net)
Feed
Cost
Margin
over Feed
Table 7:2016 margin over feed V’s 5, 10, 15 & 20 yr average
Margin Over Feed
% Diff.
cent per kg/dwt
2016*
43
-
5 Yr average
43.2
+0.7
10 Yr average
43.4
+1
15 Yr average
46.3
+7.2
20 Yr average
46.1
+6.7
*estimated
Cent per kg dwt
Figure 2 illustrates the pig price received when
compared to the total production cost (feed plus
50 cent) since 1998.
2008
152
113
39
2009
145
94
51
2010
140
93
47
2011
151
112
39
2012
166
123
43
2013
176
132
44
190
2014
167
118
49
170
2015
148
111
37
2016*
149
106
43
When the 2016 margin over feed (MOF) is
compared to the average margin over feed of the
last five, ten, fifteen, and twenty years (see Table
7) the difficult trading conditions and low
profitability of recent years becomes clear. If an
average MOF of 50 cent per kg (estimated by the
author as a requirement to meet all production
costs including financial repayments) is added to
the feed costs incurred during 2016 then the
margin over feed at 43 c/kg, while better than
2015 (37c/kg), is still critically short of this target.
The low margin in the previous five year’s (43
cent per kg dwt) now requires a substantially
higher margin over feed then 50 cent in order to
reduce the accumulated feed credit debt and
poor building maintenance that now exists in the
sector.
€ Per Tonne
*estimated
Figure 2: Pig price compared to total production cost
Pig Price
Total Cost
150
130
110
90
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
*2016 is an estimated value
Irish Pig and Sow numbers in 2016
The latest sow survey of commercial pig
production units revealed a slight decline in sow
numbers when compared to the previous survey.
Irish sow numbers are shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Sow numbers in commercial pig herds 2010-2016
Year
Sow Numbers (000 head)
2010
161.4
2011
156.2
2012
145.7
2013
147.5
2014
151.1
2015
149.9
2016
146.0*
*estimated
The sow herd census indicates that the Irish sow
population continues to remain remarkably
robust around 146,000 sows, despite low
profitability.
Table 9: Irish born pigs slaughtered: 2012 - 2016
Year
2013
Slaughter Pigs
3.4
2014
2015
2016
million head
3.5
3.65
3.63*
The export of Irish born pigs to Northern Ireland
(NI) is estimated to have fallen by 3% during 2016
which continues the downward trend in recent
years. Since 2012 the number of pigs exported to
NI has decreased annually by an estimated
200,000 pigs.
The trend of lower Irish slaughter pig disposals in
2016 was also reflected in Germany, Denmark
and the Netherlands as illustrated in Table 11.
*estimated
Table 11: European & N. American pig disposals
The number of Irish pig disposals in 2016 is
estimated to be 3.63 million pigs which is
marginally lower than 2015 but still at a high
plateau. This is a reflection of the increased
number of pigs born alive in the national herd
and improved national herd health.
Table 10: Slaughter & live export to N. Ireland of irish born
pigs from 2006 - 2016
Year
Rep. of Ireland
Licensed Export
Plants
Exports to
Northern
Ireland
million head
% Exports of
Total
Country
%
2.619
0.478
15%
2007
2.570
0.512
17%
2008
2.511
0.457
15%
2009
2.363
0.482
17%
2010
2.601
0.558
18%
2011
2.847
0.610
18%
2012
2.907
0.612
17%
2013
2.829
0.570
20%
2014
2.940
0.519
18%
2015
3.132
0.514
16%
2016*
3.219
0.408
13%
2016*
Million head
Change
%
Germany
41.6
41.1
-1.3%
Spain
30.1
31.7
5.5%
France
15.5
15.7
1%
Denmark
14.8
14.3
-3.5%
Netherlands
12.3
12.1
-1.1%
UK
7.8
8.1
3.2%
Total
122.1
123
0.7%
U.S.
92.4
93.6
1.3%
15.9
1%
Canada
2006
*estimated
2015*
15.8
*Based on 42 weeks of production,
Over the first 42 weeks of 2016 the combined pig
slaughtering of the major European producing
countries increased by an estimated 0.7% when
compared to 2015. Spain had the single biggest
increase with 1.5 million extra pigs slaughtered in
2016. The Spanish output has now increased by
3.5 million pigs over the last two years and is now
the fastest growing herd in Europe. The U.S.
slaughterings also rebounded (+1.3%) after their
PEDv disease outbreak in 2014.
EU Pigmeat Exports & Imports in 2016
The export of pigmeat products from the EU
increased in 2016 (Jan-Aug) by a record 33 per
cent as shown in Table 12. This is based on the
rapid rate of exports to China and results in the
E.U. now being very heavily dependent on this
export market.
Table 12: Pigmeat exports from selected countries
Country
2015
2016*
million tonnes
change
The predicted composite compound pig feed
price in December 2016 is €283 per tonne. The
bumper global harvests in 2015 and 2016 have
resulted in very healthy predicted use-to-ending
stock percentages for wheat (33.7%), maize
(21.3%) and soyabean (23.5%) – USDA October
2016. These copious stocks should ensure stable
prices until mid-2017, where upon the progress
of the autumn harvest 2017 will dictate prices for
the latter half of 2017.
%
EU
2.07
2.75
33
USA
1.41
1.48
5
Canada
0.75
0.81
8
Brazil
0.33
0.47
42
Total
4.56
5.51
+17
* Jan-Aug 16
Outlook for the Irish Pig Market in 2017
The outlook for the pig market is usually a
reflection of global pig feed and pig price trends
as these are the key factors affecting profitability.
However added to the mix now is the effect of
Brexit negotiations during 2017 and 2018. While
the trade effects of this are currently unknown it
is unlikely to be a favourable development to the
Irish pig market.
Irish Pig Feed Price Outlook in 2017
Pig feed is the single largest input cost. Therefore
the trend in the price of this input will have a
substantial effect on the profitability of the sector
in 2017. The feed price outlook is dependent on
wheat, maize and soyabeans, as these are the
principal pig feed cost drivers.
The South American soyabean harvest is currently
being planted with Brazilian production quantities
of 102 million tonnes forecast, which would
generate the largest Brazilian harvest ever. While
this should dictate low soyabean prices in 2017, it
is expected to be offset by higher Chinese imports
of 86 million tonnes. The outlook for soyabean
prices therefore is for little change, provided
normal weather conditions prevail.
The current feed ingredients futures market
prices indicate very little change over the 2016
annual composite pig feed price. This would
indicate that the composite compound pig feed
price will continue in the range of €285 to €295
for 2017.
Irish Pig Prices in 2017
The Irish pig price was weak in early 2016 with a
sharp increase in the third quarter. The return to
stability of the EU sow herd in 2017 and increased
numbers of piglets born alive, will increase the
supply of European pigs. It is estimated this may
be in the region of 2to 2.5 per cent. This
increased EU volume on the market, with record
increases in U.S. slaughter volumes, will provide
very competitive export conditions especially in
Q3 and Q4 of 2017.
Irish and European pig prices will be significantly
influenced by the level of Chinese pigmeat
imports in 2017. The Chinese pig herd has
stabilised and has been experiencing high profit
levels for the last 12 months. This should have
stimulated a large recovery of the domestic sow
herd but this appears to be slower than originally
expected. Local government appear to be anxious
to ensure that only pig units that meet
environmental standards will be licensed to reopen.
In the interim the shortfall will continue to be
filled by European and American exports which
will further reduce the volume of pigmeat
overhanging the European market. However, in
the latter part of 2017 it is expected that the level
of exports may weaken thereby reducing the Irish
pig price. Overall, a 2 per cent decrease in the pig
price is forecast for 2017.
Profit Margin in 2017
If the current composite feed price remains
largely unchanged until the latter half of 2017
and the pig price also remains steady for much of
2017 due to continued strong Chinese imports in
Q1 and Q2, then there will continue to a
profitable margin for Irish pig producers in 2017.
The industry requires a period of prolonged
profitability in order to reduce current high levels
of feed credit and undertake required repairs and
capital investment.
Conclusion
In 2016 the Irish pig industry experienced
moderate feed prices, but considerable
fluctuations in pig price and returned a margin-
over-feed of 43 cent per kg dwt. while this is
higher than 2015 (37c/kg) it is below the
minimum required margin-over-feed of 50 cent.
The estimated composite pig feed cost of €283
per tonne in December 2016 is expected to be
maintained until July 2017, with the possibility of
a moderate increase in the latter half of 2017.
It is expected that the market conditions in 2017
will return a steady pig price for the first half of
2017, primarily due to continued strong Chinese
import demand but this may weaken in the latter
half of 2017 with a resultant moderate reduction
in Irish pig prices.
The outlook for 2017 is for profitability in the pig
industry to continue to remain challenging, with a
positive outlook heavily dependent on the export
market remaining strong. A disease outbreak of
A.S.F. in western Europe is also a significant risk in
the forthcoming year which could dramatically
increase Irish prices.
This paper was presented at the Teagasc Outlook
2017: Economic Prospects for Agriculture
conference. The full event proceedings,
presentations and summary videos are available
at:https://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2016/out
look-2017.php
Arrival
The PDD look forward to welcoming David Doyle
to the Department in January. David comes with
a wealth of experience having previously worked
in the beef and pig sectors before taking up his
previous education role in Ballyhaise Agricultural
College.
DAFM research grant award
On December 15th Minister Michael Creed
announced the grant awards for collaborative
inter-institutional research projects under the
Department’s competitive research funding
programmes. Teagasc PDD in collaboration with
UCD was awarded a project titled “Antimicrobial
Use and Resistance in Animal Production”
coordinated by Edgar Garcia Manzanilla, PDD.
Salmonella in Pig Production Meeting
A stakeholder information day took place on the
“Targeted low cost solutions for control of
Salmonella in pig production” project at the
Teagasc Conference and Training Centre,
Ashtown, Dublin on December 6th. The event
provided an overview of the results produced
from the project over the past four years.
Be SMART with health & safety
The Teagasc Pig Department is developing a new
Health & Safety workshop for pig producers
which we plan to roll-out over the next few
months. In the interim if anyone is updating their
Safety Statement there is a very useful link
developed by the HSA www.BESMART.ie. This
contains an option specifically designed for pig
farm risk assessments which may prove useful. If
you need a template for a Health & Safety
Statement then contact your Teagasc Pig
Specialist Adviser.
Zinc Oxide
The current licence in most of the EU allows the
use of zinc oxide as a medicinal product at 3.1
kg/t
feed
to
provide
2500
ppm
Zn(pharmacological level/medicinal level) for 14
days to treat post-weaning diarrhoea. It is very
effective in this regard. Some member countries
allow the use of zinc at levels up to and including
3.1kg Zinc oxide (2500ppm zinc), however
currently in Ireland inclusion levels must be
exactly 3.1kg Zinc oxide (2500ppm zinc) if used
for medicinal purposes during this 14 day period.
Beyond this 14 day period, the maximum Zn level
allowable in pig feed is 150 ppm Zn. There is now
a proposal in the EU to reduce the inclusion of
zinc to 150 ppm zinc in pig feed throughout the
animal’s life due to concerns related to the
“potential risk to the environment and increase
of prevalence of antibiotic resistant bacteria from
the use of products containing zinc oxide”. The
Commission will have a standing committee
meeting on the 20th January next to confirm or
reject the proposal.
Welfare Workshop
A Welfare workshop is scheduled for February
24th 2017 in Teagasc Moorepark. If you or any of
your staff wish to attend please contact Amy
Quinn at [email protected] or 087 3779015.