th
1146 19 St., NW, Suite 200
Washington, DC 20036
(202) 463-7300
Interview dates: September 16-19, 2010
Interviews: 1,161 adults; 993 registered voters
535 Democrats/Lean Democrats; 483 Republicans/Lean Republicans
Margin of error: + 2.9% for all adults; + 3.1% for registered voters
+ 4.2% for Democrats; + 4.5 for Republicans
Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters, September 2010
NOTE: all results shown are percentages unless otherwise labeled.
th
th
These are some of the findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters from September 16 -19 , 2010. For the survey, a
nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,161 adults aged 18 and older across the United States was
interviewed by Ipsos via live telephone interviewing. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 2.9
percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and
measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual U.S.
population according to U.S. Census figures. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.
Please note that throughout this document, figures based on Independent voters are indicative only due to very small sample
size. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
POLITICAL TRACKER
1.
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong
track? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS.)
2/6-9/09
3/5-9/09
4/2-6/09
4/30-5/3/09
6/4-8/09
7/9-13/09
7/30-8/3/09
8/27-31/09
10/1-5/09
10/29-11/1/09
12/3-6/09
1/7-11/10
1/28-31/10
2/26-28/10
4/1-5/10
5/6-9/10
6/10-13/10
7/22-25/10
8/19-22/10
9/16-19/10
Right direction
42
44
45
55
52
40
46
40
40
38
36
39
37
34
40
34
33
34
31
33
Wrong track
50
48
48
38
42
54
48
54
56
57
60
55
57
60
54
60
61
60
62
61
(Not sure)
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
6
5
6
5
6
6
6
7
5
Ipsos Public Affairs
September 2010
2.
Page 2
Reuters/Ipsos Poll
a. Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
President? [IF “APPROVE” OR “DISAPPROVE”, ASK Q2b. IF “HAVE MIXED FEELINGS /DK/REF”, ASK Q2c]
b. Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)?
c. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove?
Strongly
approve
2/6- 9/09
3/5 -9/09
4/2-6/09
4/30-5/3/09
6/4-8/09
7/9-13/09
7/30-8/3/09
8/27-31/09
10/1-5/09
10/29-1/1/09
12/3-6/09
1/7-11/10
1/28-31/10
2/26-28/10
4/1-5/10
5/6-9/10
6/10-13/10
7/22-25/10
8/19-22/10
9/16-19/10
38
39
35
40
40
29
32
31
30
23
25
27
22
25
25
20
23
24
20
24
2/6- 9/09
3/5 -9/09
4/2-6/09
4/30-5/3/09
6/4-8/09
7/9-13/09
7/30-8/3/09
8/27-31/09
10/1-5/09
10/29-1/1/09
12/3-6/09
1/7-11/10
1/28-31/10
2/26-28/10
4/1-5/10
5/6-9/10
6/10-13/10
7/22-25/10
8/19-22/10
9/16-19/10
Lean
Somewhat toward
approve approval
19
15
18
17
14
17
17
16
12
17
12
15
13
18
16
17
13
12
13
12
Still have
mixed
Lean toward
feelings disapproval
13
10
9
8
10
11
9
9
14
14
12
11
14
11
10
15
14
13
12
10
3
5
4
2
3
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
4
2
2
2
Somewhat
disapprove
10
8
9
9
9
11
8
8
12
14
15
12
13
13
14
13
14
12
16
14
TOTAL
Strongly
disapprove (Not sure) Approve
4
5
4
3
7
6
5
3
5
4
6
5
6
7
5
4
4
6
7
4
12
17
20
19
16
22
24
28
23
25
27
28
27
25
27
27
26
31
29
31
69
65
63
65
64
57
58
56
56
53
49
52
50
53
51
52
50
48
45
47
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
TOTAL
Disapprove
Mean
Rating
26
29
33
31
32
38
37
40
40
43
49
45
46
44
46
43
45
48
52
50
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.2
4
4.1
4
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
DEMOCRATS:
Approve
DEMOCRATS:
Disapprove
INDEPENDENTS:
Approve
INDEPENDENTS:
Disapprove
REPUBLICANS:
Approve
REPUBLICANS:
Disapprove
92
89
91
95
89
84
82
88
86
82
77
81
79
80
84
84
82
76
74
78
6
8
6
4
10
13
15
10
12
15
21
17
19
18
14
14
15
21
24
20
70
58
57
56
58
50
57
54
47
45
41
49
53
54
40
40
47
52
37
47
19
31
21
34
31
36
34
37
41
41
55
46
31
42
50
47
39
41
53
37
34
29
26
29
27
24
24
18
18
21
16
18
19
23
16
18
13
14
11
11
60
66
72
67
67
73
70
78
80
78
81
80
79
75
83
80
84
84
86
87
Ipsos Public Affairs
September 2010
3.
Page 3
Reuters/Ipsos Poll
I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today,
would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?
[IF “CANDIDATE FROM ANOTHER PARTY/WILL NOT/DO NOT PLAN TO VOTE/DK/REF” TO Q3, ASK QUESTION 3a]
a. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
ALL
RESPONDENTS
10/29-1/1/09
2/26-28/10
4/1-5/10
5/6-9/10
6/10-13/10
7/22-25/10
8/19-22/10
9/16-19/10
REGISTERED
VOTERS
10/29-1/1/09
2/26-28/10
4/1-5/10
5/6-9/10
6/10-13/10
7/22-25/10
8/19-22/10
9/16-19/10
Initial
Lean
Democratic Democratic
candidate candidate
43
44
41
40
38
42
39
43
5
5
6
7
5
4
6
5
Initial
Lean
Democratic Democratic
candidate candidate
42
43
39
39
38
40
40
41
4
5
6
6
4
4
5
4
TOTAL
Democratic
candidate
TOTAL
Initial
Lean
Republican Republican Republican
candidate
candidate
candidate
48
50
47
46
43
47
45
47
36
34
38
33
35
36
38
39
TOTAL
Democratic
candidate
6
5
4
5
6
5
6
4
41
40
42
39
41
42
43
42
TOTAL
Initial
Lean
Republican Republican Republican
candidate
candidate
candidate
46
47
45
45
42
44
45
46
39
37
42
38
38
41
40
41
6
6
4
5
5
5
5
4
45
43
46
42
43
46
46
45
(Candidate (Will not / do
from another not plan to (Not
political party)
vote)
sure)
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
3
3
3
4
5
2
3
1
6
6
7
9
10
8
8
7
(Candidate (Will not / do
from another not plan to (Not
political party)
vote)
sure)
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
5
6
6
8
11
6
6
6
Economic Concerns
4.
5.
To what extent do you agree or disagree that lowering taxes creates jobs? Would you say you strongly agree, somewhat
agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree (VOL)
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
(Not sure)
All
33
35
1
17
11
3
Democrats
19
39
1
24
15
2
Republicans
51
29
2
11
6
1
Independents
30
36
*
10
13
10
TOTAL agree
TOTAL disagree
68
28
58
39
80
17
66
23
To what extent do you agree or disagree that reducing the budget deficit creates jobs? Would you say you strongly agree,
somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree (VOL)
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
(Not sure)
All
26
34
2
21
13
3
Democrats
22
34
3
26
13
2
Republicans
32
36
1
17
12
2
Independents
23
30
4
17
14
12
TOTAL agree
TOTAL disagree
60
34
56
39
68
29
53
31
Ipsos Public Affairs
September 2010
6.
7.
Page 4
Reuters/Ipsos Poll
To what extent do you agree or disagree that government spending creates jobs? Would you say you strongly agree,
somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree (VOL)
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
(Not sure)
All
19
31
2
17
30
2
Democrats
30
44
1
12
12
1
Republicans
9
18
2
23
48
2
Independents
13
28
6
16
37
6
TOTAL agree
TOTAL disagree
50
47
74
23
27
71
41
53
Which is closer to your opinion: [ROTATE]
The current high unemployment rates are part of natural ups and
downs of the economy
The current high unemployment rates indicate that something in
the economy is broken
(Not sure)
8.
All
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
22
27
17
20
74
70
81
72
4
4
2
8
In hard economic times, should the government… [READ OUT. ROTATE]
All
39
57
4
Run a deficit to stimulate the economy and create jobs
Cut the deficit in order to balance the budget and save money
(Not sure)
Democrats
55
42
3
Republicans
21
77
3
Independents
37
47
16
Likely Voter Questions
9.
Are you currently registered to vote at this address, or not?
Yes
No
(Not sure)
79
21
*
10. Sometimes things come up and people are not able to vote. In the 2008 election for President, did you happen to vote?
Yes
No
(Not sure)
All
76
23
1
Democrats
75
24
1
Republicans
84
15
*
Independents
56
40
3
[IF “NO” IN Q10, ASK Q11; OTHERWISE, SKIP TO Q12]
11. Why not? (DO NOT READ RESPONSE
Not registered, too busy, something came up
Too young to vote at the time
Did not live in state/district at the time
(Other)
(Not sure)
All
40
10
7
30
14
Democrats
48
10
5
22
16
Republicans
24
15
13
38
10
Independents
41
3
5
37
14
Ipsos Public Affairs
September 2010
Page 5
Reuters/Ipsos Poll
12. On November 2nd , the Congressional elections will be held. Using a 1-to-10 scale, where 10 means you are completely
certain you will vote and 1 means you are completely certain you will NOT vote, how likely are you to vote in the upcoming
Congressional election? You can use any number between 1 and 10, to indicate how strongly you feel about your
likelihood to vote. (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS.)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(Not sure)
Mean
1-3 (Net)
8-10 (Net)
All
12
*
1
2
7
1
5
9
4
59
1
8
13
72
Democrats
11
*
1
1
8
1
6
10
5
55
1
7.9
13
70
Republicans
5
0
*
2
5
2
3
9
2
72
1
8.8
5
83
Independents
35
1
1
1
7
*
6
6
4
35
4
5.8
37
45
[ASK ALL WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE]
13. How much interest do you have in following news about the upcoming Congressional election? A great deal, quite a bit,
only some, very little, or no interest at all?
Democrats Republicans Independents
All
A great deal
40
35
48
27
Quite a bit
26
26
26
21
Only some
20
24
17
17
Very little
9
10
6
14
No interest at all
5
5
2
21
(Not sure)
*
*
*
0
TOTAL: A great deal / Quite a bit
TOTAL: Very little / No interest at all
66
14
61
14
74
9
49
35
PARTY AFFILIATION / IDEOLOGY
a.
b.
c.
d.
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these?
(IF “DEMOCRAT” TO Qa, Qb ASKED. IF “REPUBLICAN” TO Qa, Qc ASKED. IF “INDEPENDENT” or “NONE OF
THESE” TO Qa, Qd ASKED. RESULTS SHOWN IN SUMMARY BELOW.)
Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Democratic Party?
Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Republican Party?
Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
Strongly Democrat
Moderately Democrat
Lean Democrat
Strongly Republican
Moderately Republican
Lean Republican
Independent (No lean)
19
9
18
14
10
16
14
Initial Democrats
Total Democrats
28
46
Initial Republicans
Total Republicans
24
40