Hamilton Environmental Industry Association
Hamilton Airshed Modelling System
Anthony Ciccone Ph.D., P. Eng. Janya Kelly Ph.D. &
James Wilkinson Ph.D.
2 April 2015
Source: https://asiancan.wordpress.com/hamilton/mm-hamilton-entrance/
Project Objectives
Challenge:
 Unraveling the Hamilton Airshed
 nature and level of contribution of various local and regional
background sources to air quality;
 geographical distribution of ambient air concentrations
Solution:
 Develop, implement and execute an Airshed Modelling System for the
City of Hamilton
 Process emissions from sources into ambient air concentrations
 Include local, regional and transboundary influences
 Evaluate the contribution of sources to airshed
 Verify modelling results with observations from local ambient
monitoring
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Project Approach: Compounds of Concern
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Which ambient air concentrations have the greatest impact on the
health and well-being of Hamilton residents?
 Look at current emission sources in the area
 Consult with HIEA, Hamilton Health and Stakeholders
Selected Compounds of Concern
Nitrogen Oxides
(NO2 and NO)
Chromium (VI)
Ammonia
Sulphur Dioxide
Lead
Benzene
Ozone
Manganese
Formaldehyde
Particulate Matter
(TSP, PM10, PM2.5)
Mercury (gaseous)
Benzo[a]pyrene
Cadmium
Mercury (non-gaseous)
VOCs
(Anthropogenic/Biogenic)
Chromium (III)
Nickel
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Project Approach: Capturing Hamilton
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Source: https://asiancan.wordpress.com/hamilton/mm-hamilton-entrance/
Success requires the following:
 Understanding of the region of
interest and its influences
 A Big Computer
 Knowing what you are doing!
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Need to capture influences on a
global, regional and local scale
 Meteorology
 Air Quality
Need to capture the unique
geography
Need to capture regional and
local emission sources
 Industrial
 Commercial
 Residential
 Transportation (rail, airways,
marine and roads)
 Agricultural/biogenics
Approach: Overview
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Air Quality Modelling System
Meteorology
(WRF)
Emissions
(SMOKE)
Boundary Conditions
Initial Conditions
Air Quality/Chemical
Transport Model
(CMAQ)
Photolysis Rates
Gridded Ambient Air
Quality
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Phase I: Modelling Approach
Tier I – Canada/US
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Tier II – Ontario
Tier III – Hamilton Region
Tier
Domains
I
CMAQ 36 km x 36 km
II
CMAQ 12 km x 12 km
III
CMAQ 4 km x 4 km
IV
CMAQ
1.3 x 1.3 km
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AQMS: Nested Grids
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AQMS: Nested Grids
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Meteorological Modelling
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Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW)
Model v.3.6.1
Nested 36-12-4-1.33 km domains
Modelling 2012 to produce hourly predictions for each day of the year
North American Regional Reanalysis initialization data set
Grid and observational nudging
•
NCEP ADP Global Upper Air Observational Weather Data
• NCEP ADP Global Surface Observational Weather Data
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Model performance evaluation (MPE) will be conducted to determine adequacy
of model predictions
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Example Meteorological Modelling
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Example Meteorological Modelling
Temperature
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Precipitation
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Example Emissions Inventory
Regional sources
(Tier I and II) - SMOKE
Local sources
(Tier III and IV) - SMOKE
Industrial: NPRI (incl. point sources)
Area: residential, marine, railway
Commercial: StatCan, Union Gas
Mobile: light/heavy duty, personal/commercial
vehicles
Residential: StatCan, Union Gas
On-Road Mobile: MTO, Peel Region
Point: minor (surface), major (height in PBL)
Non-Road Mobile: Hamilton Airport
Biogenic /Agricultural
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Agricultural/biogenic: MPAC, land cover
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Data Sets for Tier I – US Emissions
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Commercial VOC
2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI)
 No additional control required to account for 1 year
of growth
US 36-km domain only
Emissions by
• commercial, • biogenic-agricultural,
• on-road mobile sources, and
• industrial,
• residential,
• non-road mobile sources
Processed using Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel
Mobile NOX
Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system
Default US spatial, temporal and chemical speciation
profiles
Default US spatial surrogates
Hourly emissions by day for representative week of
each month for 2012
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Data sets for Tier II and Tier III
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Environment Canada
 NPRI – Annual Emissions by Industrial Facility including stack parameters for large
point sources
 NPI – Annual emissions by province for non-road mobiles (e.g. airports, rail, marine)
Great Lakes Commission (GLC)
 Centralized Air repository On-Line (CAROL) – Emission Inventory data by county
Municipality Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC)–
 Property codes and land use classifications
Transport Canada and GO Trains
 Transportation schedules
StatsCan
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Provincial statistics on population and energy use
Union Gas
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Natural gas purchasing data by postal code
USEPA
 Webfire Database – temporal profiles and emission factors by SCC codes
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Industrial Sources
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Ontario Major Highway Traffic
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Air Quality Modelling
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Model compounds of concern (e.g., PM2.5, O3,
SO2, NO2, CO, VOCs, NH3)
Two-way nested modelling (36-12-04 and
possibly 1.3 km modelling)
Sensitivity modelling
 Source group sensitivities (commercial,
residential, industrial, biogenicagricultural, non-road, on-road)
 With and without local emissions
 Possibly with and without 12 km
emissions
Post–processing:
 Model performance evaluation using MOE
and local ambient air monitoring
 Analyze 24-hr & annual data
 Focus on trends as well as absolute
values
 Provide breakdown on contribution of
various source groups to concentrations
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Example Results – NOX/NO2 Tier III
Annual Emissions (T/a)
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Annual Concentrations (ppb)
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Example Results – Ozone
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Example Results - Ozone
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Project Team Members
Team Member
Role/Expertise
Anthony Ciccone, Ph.D., P.Eng., Principal
Project Manager/Principal Investigator
Janya Kelly, Ph.D.
Photochemical Modelling Lead
James Wilkinson, Ph.D.
CMAQ Specialist Emissions / Modelling Lead
Katie Armstrong, M.Sc.
Emissions Technical Support
Jackson Mak, M.Sc.
Modelling Technical Support
Allison Barrett, M.Sc.
Meteorology Lead
Saba Aghassi, M.Sc.
Meteorology Technical Support
Kevin Darmanin, C.Tech
Geographic Information System
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Experience in Canada (fed., prov., munic.), US/European/Asian
agencies (NOAA, NASA) & international bodies (UN, WMO)
100+ papers in scientific journals (incl. peer-reviewed), reports,
newsletters, conference and workshop proceedings
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Meetings and Deliverables
Meetings
 Monthly Conference Calls will be held with the HEIA Region Technical
Authority
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Project update technical memos will be provided
Quarterly/Semi-annual meetings with the held with the Steering
Committee
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Project updates and presentations will be provided to the Steering
Committee
Deliverables:
 Detailed Internal Work Plan (Air Quality Modelling Plan)
 Interim reports on each phase
 Draft/Final Modelling Report
 Mapping and GIS files
 Electronic databases of data collected
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Project Schedule
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Questions?
[email protected]
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