Economic Needs Report - Water Supply Project Eastern and

Water Supply Project
Midlands and Eastern ReJion
(WSP) Economic
Needs Report
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Phase 1: Review of
Existing Research;
Review of Economic
and Policy Context,
and Importance of
Water Supply
1.1: Project Inception
Phase 2: Baseline
Analysis of Existing
Patterns of Water
Demand; Identification
of Economic Drivers of
Water Demand
Phase 3: Modelling of
Demand Scenarios;
Assessment of Supply
Issues; Identification
of Future Capacity
Requirements
Phase 4: Conclusions
and Reporting
2.1: Identification and Collation of
available Datasets on Existing
Patterns of Water Usage/
Demand
3.1: Review of Existing
Demographic Projections, and
Development of Indecon
Demographic Projections
4.1: Detailed Conclusions from
Economic Assessment of Water
Needs and Capacity
Requirements to 2050
1.2: Review of Relevant Project
Documentation, incl. WSP-DR
Preliminary Report, Plan and
SEA
2.2: Baseline Analysis of
Residential Water Demand
1.3: Review of National and
Regional Socio-Economic and
Planning Policy documents
2.3: Detailed Sectoral Mapping
and Baseline Analysis of NonResidential Water Demand
1.4: Collation and Review of
Existing National and
International Research on
Importance of Water and Drivers
of Water Demand; and Research
on Costs of Supply Disruption
2.4: Analysis of available
evidence on Customer Side
Leakage and Distribution Losses
3.4: Review of Existing Sectoral
Economic Growth Projections
2.5: Review of International
Evidence/Trends on Sectoral
Water Usage
3.5: Development of Scenarios
for Non-Residential Demand
2.6: Examination of
Developments in Drivers of
Residential Demand, incl.
Demographics, Household
Formation and Occupancy, and
Per Capita Consumption
3.6: Development of Scenarios
for Supply Requirement,
Comparison with Capacity, and
Identification of Future Capacity
Requirements
2.7: Examination of Economic
Drivers of Non-Residential
Demand, incl. Analysis of Water
Intensity relative to Economic
Activity at Sectoral Level
3.2: Development of Scenarios
for Residential Demand
4.2: Conclusions from
Assessment of Wider
Implications and Benefits of
Project
3.3: Econometric Modelling of
Sectoral Patterns of NonResidential Demand
3.7: Assessment of Community
Gain and Potential Wider
Benefits of Project
4.3: Finalisation of Economic
Needs Assessment Report
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Residential Water Demand
Projections for Overall
Population (A)
Projected No. of Households (C = A / B))
Projections for Household
Size (Avg. Persons per
Household) (B)
Assumptions re Evolution
of PCC post Metering and
Charging
Assumptions re Occupancy
and New buildings
Household Per Capita Consumption (PCC)
(Litres per Household Member per Day (D)
Projected Total Usage per Household
(E = B * D)
Projected Residential Water Demand (Million
Litres per Day) (F = E * C)
Projected Customer
Side Loss/Leakage
Rate (%)
Customer Side Losses (CSL)
(=Projected No. of Households * CSL Rate)
Projected Average Residential
Water Demand (Million Litres per
Day) (= F + CSL)
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Description
Units
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
l/hd/day
_`cGc
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_`^Gb
_`^Gd
_`^Ge
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18.1
19.1
22.7
26.3
29.5
32.3
33.8
35.0
12.1
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
36.9
0.3
33.5
0.4
29.2
0.5
24.9
0.5
21.5
0.6
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
67.5
64.8
63.7
62.7
62.2
64.4
65.6
66.6
73.6
71.0
70.6
70.3
70.4
73.0
74.5
75.7
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Dublin Water Supply
Region
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential
Demand Projection
Customer Side Loss
Rate
Customer Side Losses
Leakage Rate
Distribution Losses
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand
Ml/d
– Dublin Region
Average Day Peak
Week Demand –
Ml/d
Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Non Residential
Ml/d
Demand Projection
Total Leakage
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Ml/d
Total Average Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak
Week Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Total Average Day
Peak Week Demand –
Ml/d
Dublin & BC
Total Production
Requirement Dublin &
BC (Including
Ml/d
allowance for risk and
uncertainty via
headroom)
Source: Indecon Economists
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Description
Units
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
l/hd/day
_`cGc
_`dGb
_èG^
_`dGf
_`dGc
_`cGg
_`cGa
_`bGe
Ml/d
_g^Ga
`^^Gf
`_^Gf
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àfGg
`ceG`
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Ml/d
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aaGg
afGc
baGf
%
aaG^
`gGf
`dGb
`bGf
àG_
`^Ge
_gGd
_fGe
Distribution Losses
Ml/d
_efG_
_d_Gc
_bdGb
_b_Gf
_adGc
_adGc
_adGc
_adGc
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand –
Dublin Region
Ml/d
aGd
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bGc
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Ml/d
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18.1
19.1
22.7
26.3
29.5
32.3
33.8
35.0
12.1
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
36.9
0.3
33.5
0.4
29.2
0.5
24.9
0.5
21.5
0.6
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
67.5
64.8
63.7
62.7
62.2
64.4
65.6
66.6
73.6
71.0
70.6
70.3
70.4
73.0
74.5
75.7
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Dublin Water Supply
Region
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Customer Side Loss Rate
Customer Side Losses
Leakage Rate
Average Day Peak Week
Ml/d
Demand – Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Total Leakage
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Ml/d
Total Average Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak Week
Demand - Benefitting
Ml/d
Corridor
Total Average Day Peak
Week Demand – Dublin &
Ml/d
BC
Total Production
Requirement Dublin &
BC (Including allowance
Ml/d
for risk and uncertainty
via headroom)
Source: Indecon Economists
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Authors
Country
Service
Disruption
Method
Unit
Cost per Person
per Day - € 2014
prices
Estimated cost of
1-day disruption
for GDA - €m[1]
FEMA method (2009)
presented in Aubuchon
and Morley (2013)
U.S.
Water
Outage
Constant elasticity
demand curve
per capita
per day
44
78.9
Aubuchon
(2013)
U.S.
Water
Outage
Constant elasticity
demand curve
per capita
per day
122
219.4
and
Morley
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Phase 1: Review of
Existing Research;
Review of Economic
and Policy Context,
and Importance of
Water Supply
1.1: Project Inception
Phase 2: Baseline
Analysis of Existing
Patterns of Water
Demand; Identification
of Economic Drivers of
Water Demand
Phase 3: Modelling of
Demand Scenarios;
Assessment of Supply
Issues; Identification
of Future Capacity
Requirements
Phase 4: Conclusions
and Reporting
2.1: Identification and Collation of
available Datasets on Existing
Patterns of Water Usage/
Demand
3.1: Review of Existing
Demographic Projections, and
Development of Indecon
Demographic Projections
4.1: Detailed Conclusions from
Economic Assessment of Water
Needs and Capacity
Requirements to 2050
1.2: Review of Relevant Project
Documentation, incl. WSP-DR
Preliminary Report, Plan and
SEA
2.2: Baseline Analysis of
Residential Water Demand
1.3: Review of National and
Regional Socio-Economic and
Planning Policy documents
2.3: Detailed Sectoral Mapping
and Baseline Analysis of NonResidential Water Demand
1.4: Collation and Review of
Existing National and
International Research on
Importance of Water and Drivers
of Water Demand; and Research
on Costs of Supply Disruption
2.4: Analysis of available
evidence on Customer Side
Leakage and Distribution Losses
3.4: Review of Existing Sectoral
Economic Growth Projections
2.5: Review of International
Evidence/Trends on Sectoral
Water Usage
3.5: Development of Scenarios
for Non-Residential Demand
2.6: Examination of
Developments in Drivers of
Residential Demand, incl.
Demographics, Household
Formation and Occupancy, and
Per Capita Consumption
3.6: Development of Scenarios
for Supply Requirement,
Comparison with Capacity, and
Identification of Future Capacity
Requirements
2.7: Examination of Economic
Drivers of Non-Residential
Demand, incl. Analysis of Water
Intensity relative to Economic
Activity at Sectoral Level
3.2: Development of Scenarios
for Residential Demand
4.2: Conclusions from
Assessment of Wider
Implications and Benefits of
Project
3.3: Econometric Modelling of
Sectoral Patterns of NonResidential Demand
3.7: Assessment of Community
Gain and Potential Wider
Benefits of Project
4.3: Finalisation of Economic
Needs Assessment Report
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Description
Units
Dublin Water Supply
Region
Population
Occupancy Rate
Households
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Customer Side Loss Rate
Customer Side Losses
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
hd
hd/house
No.
1,516,133
2.64
618,460
1,579,262
2.56
678,921
1,642,391
2.48
728,480
1,742,226
2.40
798,520
1,842,060
2.32
873,391
2,003,156
2.16
1,020,126
2,081,225
2.08
1,100,648
2,154,252
2.00
1,184,839
l/hd/day
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l/house
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cbGc
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%
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Distribution Losses
Ml/d
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_a^G^
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand –
Dublin Region
Average Day Peak Week
Demand – Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Total Leakage
Ml/d
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aGd
aGg
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22.7
26.3
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32.3
33.8
35.0
Ml/d
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11.8
11.4
11.0
10.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
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36.9
0.3
33.5
0.4
29.2
0.5
24.9
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21.5
0.6
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
67.5
64.8
63.7
62.7
62.2
64.4
65.6
66.6
73.6
71.0
70.6
70.3
70.4
73.0
74.5
75.7
RTQ<M
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Leakage Rate
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak Week
Demand - Benefitting
Ml/d
Corridor
Total Average Day Peak
Week Demand – Dublin &
Ml/d
BC
Source: IndeconEconomists
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Description
Units
Dublin Water Supply
Region
Population
Occupancy Rate
Households
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Customer Side Loss Rate
Customer Side Losses
Leakage Rate
Distribution Losses
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
hd
hd/house
No.
1,516,133
2.64
618,460
1,579,262
2.56
678,921
1,642,391
2.48
728,480
1,742,226
2.40
798,520
1,842,060
2.32
873,391
2,003,156
2.16
1,020,126
2,081,225
2.08
1,100,648
2,154,252
2.00
1,184,839
l/hd/day
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10.7
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67.5
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73.6
71.0
70.6
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74.5
75.7
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Operational Usage
Total Average Demand –
Ml/d
Dublin Region
Average Day Peak Week
Ml/d
Demand – Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Total Leakage
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Ml/d
Total Average Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak Week
Demand - Benefitting
Ml/d
Corridor
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Week Demand – Dublin &
Ml/d
BC
Source: Indecon Economists
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Description
Units
Dublin Water Supply
Region
Population
Occupancy Rate
Households
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Customer Side Loss Rate
Customer Side Losses
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
hd
hd/house
No.
1,516,133
2.64
618,460
1,588,170
2.49
702,878
1,660,207
2.34
780,439
1,780,042
2.19
894,085
1,887,859
2.04
1,017,963
2,042,149
1.74
1,291,014
2,122,403
1.59
1,468,329
2,184,589
1.44
1,668,783
l/hd/day
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10.7
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36.9
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21.5
21.5
21.5
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67.5
64.8
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65.6
66.6
73.6
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70.6
70.3
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74.5
75.7
RTQ<M
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Leakage Rate
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Ml/d
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Ml/d
Projection
Ml/d
Total Leakage
Operational Usage
Ml/d
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Demand - Benefitting
Ml/d
Corridor
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Week Demand – Dublin &
Ml/d
BC
Source: Indecon Economists
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Description
Units
Dublin Water Supply
Region
Population
Occupancy Rate
Households
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Customer Side Loss Rate
Customer Side Losses
Leakage Rate
Distribution Losses
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand –
Dublin Region
Average Day Peak Week
Demand – Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Total Leakage
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
hd
hd/house
No.
l/hd/day
1,516,133
2.64
618,460
125.5
1,580,103
2.59
671,211
113.4
1,644,072
2.54
712,000
113.7
1,745,167
2.43
789,993
114.5
1,846,262
2.43
835,756
114.1
2,008,198
2.43
909,061
113.5
2,064,250
2.43
934,434
113.3
2,111,142
2.43
955,661
113.2
Ml/d
190.3
179.1
187.0
199.8
210.6
227.9
233.9
239.0
Ml/d
126.5
124.7
141.1
148.6
157.5
173.9
183.7
192.5
l/house
Ml/d
%
Ml/d
Ml/d
66.0
40.8
33.0
178.1
3.6
54.5
36.6
31.4
157.6
3.4
45.0
32.0
27.7
139.4
3.6
35.0
27.6
26.2
135.0
3.8
25.0
20.9
24.9
130.0
3.9
25.0
22.7
23.3
130.0
4.2
25.0
23.4
22.6
130.0
4.4
25.0
23.9
22.0
130.0
4.6
Ml/d
539.3
501.4
503.1
514.9
522.9
558.8
575.4
590.0
Ml/d
611.5
570.1
575.8
590.8
601.5
644.5
664.5
681.9
Ml/d
18.1
19.1
22.7
26.3
29.5
32.3
33.8
35.0
Ml/d
12.1
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
Ml/d
36.9
0.3
33.5
0.4
29.2
0.5
24.9
0.5
21.5
0.6
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
67.5
64.8
63.7
62.7
62.2
64.4
65.6
66.6
73.6
71.0
70.6
70.3
70.4
73.0
74.5
75.7
685.1
641.1
646.5
661.2
671.8
717.6
739.0
757.6
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak Week
Demand - Benefitting
Ml/d
Corridor
Total Average Day Peak
Week Demand – Dublin &
Ml/d
BC
Source: Indecon Economists
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Computer, Electronic and Optical Products
Medical Device Manufacturing
Food, Drink and Tobacco
Machinery and Equipment
Rubber and Plastics
Transport Equipment
Basic and Fabricated Metal Products
Electrical equipment
Non-Metallic Minerals
Other Misc. Manufacturing
Wood and Wood Products
Paper and Printing
Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry, Mining and Quarrying
Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather
Total Manufacturing
Total All Sectors
2012
37,980
9,899
7,750
7,094
1,096
971
802
757
658
290
243
222
123
63
15
67,963
129,551
Source: Forfás Annual Business Survey of Economic Impact 2012.
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Authors
Country
Service
Disruption
Method
Unit
Cost per Person
per Day - € 2014
prices
Estimated cost of
1-day disruption
for GDA - €m[1]
FEMA method (2009)
presented in Aubuchon
and Morley (2013)
U.S.
Water
Outage
Constant elasticity
demand curve
per capita
per day
44
78.9
Aubuchon
(2013)
U.S.
Water
Outage
Constant elasticity
demand curve
per capita
per day
122
219.4
and
Morley
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Description
Units
Dublin Water Supply
Region
Population
Occupancy Rate
Households
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential
Demand Projection
Customer Side Loss
Rate
Customer Side Losses
Leakage Rate
Distribution Losses
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
hd
hd/house
No.
1,516,133
2.64
618,460
1,579,262
2.56
678,921
1,642,391
2.48
728,480
1,742,226
2.40
798,520
1,842,060
2.32
873,391
2,003,156
2.16
1,020,126
2,081,225
2.08
1,100,648
2,154,252
2.00
1,184,839
l/hd/day
_`cGc
__gGg
_`^Gb
_`^Gd
_`^Ge
_`^Gg
_`_G^
_`_G^
Ml/d
_g^Ga
_fgGa
_geGe
`_^G_
```Ga
`b`G`
`c_Ge
`d^Gd
Ml/d
126.5
136.9
155.9
164.8
176.0
205.2
222.6
238.2
l/house
ddG^
cbGc
bcG^
acG^
`cG^
`cG^
`cG^
`cG^
Ml/d
b^Gf
aeG^
a`Gf
èGg
`_Gf
`cGc
èGc
`gGd
%
aaG^
a^G^
`dGa
`bGg
àGc
`_Gb
`^Gb
_gGd
Ml/d
_efG_
_ceGd
_agGb
_acG^
_a^G^
_a^G^
_a^G^
_a^G^
aGd
aGd
aGg
bG^
bG`
bGe
cG^
cGa
QOU<O
QNP<P
QNU<S
QPM<T
QQP<O
RLS<R
ROR<U
RRO<S
RMM<Q
QUS<T
RLS<T
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SLO<M
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18.1
19.1
22.7
26.3
29.5
32.3
33.8
35.0
12.1
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
36.9
0.3
33.5
0.4
29.2
0.5
24.9
0.5
21.5
0.6
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
67.5
64.8
63.7
62.7
62.2
64.4
65.6
66.6
73.6
71.0
70.6
70.3
70.4
73.0
74.5
75.7
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Ml/d
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand
Ml/d
– Dublin Region
Average Day Peak
Week Demand –
Ml/d
Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Non Residential
Ml/d
Demand Projection
Total Leakage
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Ml/d
Total Average Demand
Ml/d
- Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak
Week Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Total Average Day
Peak Week Demand –
Ml/d
Dublin & BC
Total Production
Requirement Dublin &
BC (Including
Ml/d
Allowance for risk and
uncertainty via
headroom)
Source: Indecon Economists
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Description
Units
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2041
2046
2050
l/hd/day
_`cGc
_`dGb
_èG^
_`dGf
_`dGc
_`cGg
_`cGa
_`bGe
Ml/d
_g^Ga
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àfGg
`ceG`
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Ml/d
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l/house
ddG^
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Ml/d
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aaGg
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%
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Ml/d
_efG_
_d_Gc
_bdGb
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_adGc
_adGc
_adGc
Operational Usage
Total Average Demand –
Dublin Region
Ml/d
aGd
aGf
bG^
bGa
bGc
cG`
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Ml/d
QOU<O
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18.1
19.1
22.7
26.3
29.5
32.3
33.8
35.0
12.1
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
36.9
0.3
33.5
0.4
29.2
0.5
24.9
0.5
21.5
0.6
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
21.5
0.7
67.5
64.8
63.7
62.7
62.2
64.4
65.6
66.6
73.6
71.0
70.6
70.3
70.4
73.0
74.5
75.7
RTQ<M
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_^`_Gc
Dublin Water Supply
Region
Per Capita Consumption
Residential Demand
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Projection
Customer Side Loss Rate
Customer Side Losses
Leakage Rate
Average Day Peak Week
Ml/d
Demand – Dublin Region
Benefitting Corridor
Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Non Residential Demand
Ml/d
Projection
Total Leakage
Ml/d
Operational Usage
Ml/d
Total Average Demand Ml/d
Benefitting Corridor
Average Day Peak Week
Ml/d
Demand - Benefitting
Corridor
Total Average Day Peak
Week Demand – Dublin &
Ml/d
BC
Total Production
Requirement Dublin &
BC (Including allowance
Ml/d
for risk and uncertainty
via headroom)
Source: IndeconEconomists
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