Reshaping European Party Competition: The Impact of Integration on Left and Right Stephen Whitefield Department of Political and International Relations and Pembroke College Oxford University Oxford OX1 1DW UK [email protected] Robert Rohrschneider Department of Political Science The University of Kansas Lawrence, KS 66045 USA [email protected] Abstract Scholarship on European party competition has for some time accepted that issues are structured along economic left-right and libertarian-authoritarian dimensions. While newly contested issues connected with internationalism, such as European integration and migration, have become more politically salient, much of the literature sees these as largely the domain of ideologically extremist and ‘niche’ or ‘challenger’ parties. By contrast, building on work by Kriesi, this paper argues that international issues have produced far greater sorting of party stances across the left-right spectrum than the niche and extremist models suggest. Moreover, we seek to explain how contention over integration has extended to include stances on national political institutions as a divide that cross-cuts left and right. Our analysis employs expert surveys on the stances of all electorally significant parties conducted in 24 European countries in 2013. The results have important implications for understanding the impact of international issues on how parties appeal to voters. 1 1. Introduction Literature on European party competition has for some time accepted that issues are structured along both an economic left-right dimension and a libertarian-authoritarian one (Mark et al 2006) or some fusion of the two (Kitschelt 1994). There has also been recognition that new issues, such as European integration and migration, have become more politically salient but these are often viewed as largely orthogonal to the main dimensions (Brug and van Spanje 2009) as well as highly disruptive to existing party alignments (Meguid 2005; Mair 2000; Hix and Marsh 2007). In line with these perspectives, much recent literature that deals with these international issues has focused on the role of ‘niche’ or ‘challenger’ parties and their entrepreneurial leaders who seek to make their parties politically relevant by their appeal to votes almost exclusively on these new international questions (Meguid 2005; Lynch and Whitaker 2012; Hobolt and Tilley 2016). Much of that literature has concentrated in turn on the rise of ‘populist’ or ‘radical’ right wing parties (Norris 2005; Mudde 2007). In short, international issues from this perspective have largely been treated as extraneous to the main dimensions of party competition (Mayer and Wagner 2013), the terrain of niche and/or extremist parties. This paper argues that international issues have been much more integrated into the ideological fields of left and right across issue dimensions than the niche and extremist models suggest and that contemporary party competition can be usefully understood in terms of political fields in which international questions play a significant defining role within left and right camps. Thus, we should consider viewing parties in terms of a combination of their domestic issue stances on left-right ideology and their stances on international questions. In brief, parties may be of the anti-integrationist right, the anti-integrationist left, but also the integrationist right, and the integrationist left, with many parties of left and right still in an ambiguous, “muddy” position on the integration issue. From the perspective we advance here, international issues do not comprise simply a set of new challenges that remain unintegrated into mainstream party competition and 2 open to niche parties but are rather are a constitutive part of the issue space in which European party politics as a whole now occurs. We also note that contestation among these political fields appears increasingly to include strongly critical views of national institutions among anti-integration parties of both left and right. We that our perspective helps to clarify the strength of anti-establishment and anti-elite sentiment that disagreements of integration gives rise to because the issue takes on not just economic and cultural concerns but also questions about control – ‘rigged’ or otherwise – of national democratic institutions. Our argument builds on the work by Kriesi et al. (2006) that discusses how integration became embedded into existing economic and cultural dimensions – while at the same time altering their character. Kriesi et al. (2006) suggested that globalization has led to a new cleavage dimension pitting winners against losers, but with different characteristics on the left and right. On the left, opposition to integration take a more strongly economic protectionist stance. On the right, the promarket instincts of conservative parties collide with their culturally conservative stances, leading to the potential for divisions over integration (and globalization) (Kriesi et al.2006 p. 924). However, while Kriesi and his collaborators clearly recognize the dilemmas for mainstream right and left parties, they also expect empirically a “strengthening of peripheral political actors, who tend to adopt a ‘losers’ programme”. Peripheral actors on the right are expected to be culturally more protectionist, and peripheral actors on the left to be socially and economically more protectionist than their respective mainstream counterparts” (p. 928). In short, while integration has the potential for shaking up party systems across the board, these authors expect the major changes to occur at the “peripheral” end of party systems, just as the niche party literature argues. This model surely captures part of the party system dynamic and also accounts for the inertia of party positions that parties’ reputations produce. However, it also leaves a number of questions unanswered. Most importantly, we argue that previous analyses neglect a crucial aspect 3 that connects to the rise of contentiousness over integration. Why does opposition to integration (and globalization) lead to such intense debates rather than being just one of many issues? We think that in addition to the run-of-the-mill explanations—their crosscutting nature and novelty—there is one missing aspect in previous accounts and it centres on the question: How do parties evaluate those political institutions that helped to produce the rise of contentious issues in the first place? Much has been made in the literature about the significance of ‘critical citizens’ (for comprehensive recent reviews see Dalton 2004; Norris 2011; Hobolt 2012; Thomassen 2012). We now also witness the rise of ‘critical parties’ (Rohrschneider and Whitefield 2017). While the rise of these parties is clearly a complex phenomenon, we develop here the argument that part of the explanation lies in the ways in which support for and opposition to integration has been brought into party competition. The dominance of parties committed to integration may lead the anti-integrationist left to argue that national institutions fail to deliver defences of economic welfare. In turn, the antiintegrationist right may highlight the failures of national institutions to defend cultural identity. The institutional question, therefore, may also cut across left and right and connect with the pro/antiglobalization dimension in ways to reinforce those divisions that underlie their stances about globalization. In other words, by relating institutional views to stances about globalization, we can provide an explanation for why critics of globalization and integration often resort to anti-elitism appeals, which provides a unique element of convergence of the “nationalist” left and right. The dynamics of ‘anti-establishment’ politics that is significantly driven by the exclusion of anti-integration parties from regime access is still clearly in flux. Our previous research (Rohrschneider and Whitefield 2016) has pointed to relative stability in the stances of prointegration parties up until 2013 that, given strongly growing public Euroscepticism has given a representational opening to ever more anti-integration and regime critical parties. In line with our theory, in fact, lack of responsiveness of pro-integration parties of left and right is likely to further fuel regime critical parties. While some signs are emerging of change in the integration stances of parties that have historically had significant regime access, e.g., the British Conservative and Labour 4 parties, raise the possibilities of a shift in the institutional dimension of party contestation also, for the moment, however, that implications of that possibility for the strength of anti-establishment politics remains speculative, though intriguing. Our empirical analysis is based on expert surveys conducted by the authors in 24 European countries in 2013 that included all electorally significant parties. Our findings show that prointegration parties on the ideological left are distinguished based on their extreme leftist economic position. But on the cultural dimension, they are about as pro-liberal as pro-integration parties on the left and the right. In contrast, the distinguishing feature of anti-integration parties on the right is their extreme cultural conservatism whereas they are not particularly distinguished on the economic dimension. However, what unites the nationalist left and right is their strongly negative views of the performance of national democratic institutions. So, while anti-integrationist parties hark back to days in which national institutions were sovereign – over the economy or national cultures – this does not translate into a positive vision of how they currently perform. Rather, likely the control of such institutions so far by pro-integration parties and governments is viewed by ‘critical parties’ as evidence of democratic failure. Here we find that both the nationalist left and right are rather critical of the performance of regimes which may explain why opposition to the EU coincides with negative stances about the performance of a regime. Ultimately, this association may go some way to shed light on the question why pro-nationalist policy stances prompt anti-establishment strategies—because the ruling elite, which is largely pro-integration, uses institutions to advance their policy agendas. Our findings points to the importance of taking into account differences between both left and right parties and parties that are pro- or anti-integration. Rather than framing integration issues within the paradigm of challenger, niche or extremist parties, our analysis offers confirmation that integration has already been substantially integrated into left-right politics across the whole range of parties. In other words, we do not find that integration is associated with only economic or cultural 5 stances (van der Brug and van Spanje 2009; Prosser 2016); rather it is associated with both as well as with views of migration. Nor do we find that there is a new dimension of party competition that simply pits liberal globalization winners against illiberal globalization losers. Rather, opposition to integration comes from both liberal (left) and conservative (right) perspectives. At the same time, we do find that parties on both the nationalist left and right that are strongly critical of national democratic institutions and, especially, of the EU as well. In short, nationalist stances appear to have become associated with institutional criticisms. Our results have important implications for understanding the growing impact of international issues on how parties appeal to voters, and why these policies appear associated with a critique of national and EU institutions. While left (and right) parties offer similar and intelligible positions on a number of dimensions that may make their cooperation – and voter choice – simpler, they are also divided on the core question of international integration. Moreover, the intrusion of anti-establishment issues as an orthogonal dimension that divides the left and right complicates voter choice further. 2. Theorising international issues in party competition There is widespread agreement that the nature of European party competition has altered over recent decades. While it remains the case that this redistributive dimension is the most important to party competition in Europe (Rohrschneider and Whitefield, 2012), new identity and lifestyle issues, around women’s and later gay rights, personal autonomy and the choice or rejection of ‘unconventional lifestyles’ have reshaped the conflict space in advanced democracies (Inglehart, 1990; Dalton 2015). Over time, parties developed connections between economic and cultural issues that largely fused economically left with culturally liberal positions and pro-market with culturally conservative positions (Kitschelt, 1994; Knutsen 2006). And when established parties did not accommodate these new preferences, the Greens formed and became so successful that they became part of governing coalitions across Europe, notably in Germany. By the time that European 6 integration awoke from a “sleeping giant” in the pre-crisis era (van der Eijk and Franklin 2004), domestic conflict space formed the backdrop against which international crises emerged, from the financial crash, the Euro crisis, to the migration crisis to Brexit. For much of the pre-crisis era, international issues were not associated with divisions over domestic issues because dominant mainstream parties staunchly supported integration. Accordingly, for parties on the left, internationalism could be sold as supportive of a social market and control of capital, as well as being culturally liberalising (Marks, Wilson, and Ray 2002). For parties of the right, internationalism could be sold as a means of consolidating and liberalising the market system, including the labour market, and developing trade, while they simultaneously appealed to conservative family and lifestyle values as a means of preserving social cohesion in the face of economic change. While such parties of left and right therefore differed in the details of how the international system should operate and what it would deliver, both significantly converged on its neo-liberal foundations: international integration was supposedly beneficial to their core constituents. Nowhere was this more evident than in the elite consensus on the European Union. We also see a strong permissive consensus in the East regarding the value of EU accession across much of the political spectrum (Vachudova 2015). Given the consensus among the mainstream in their pro-EU stances, most of prior analyses suggest that integration issues remained largely unconnected to economic and cultural domestic issue positions (van der Brug and Spanje 2009; Albright 2010). From this vantage point, anti-integration policies were the purview of “niche” or ideologically extreme parties (Wagner 2012; Wagner and Meyer 2013), whereas mainstream parties were largely portrayed as a bulwark for Europe’s integration against its critics. In contrast to this view, some analysts did propose that integration issues had become “embedded” (Kriesi et al. 2006, p. 924) into the domestic conflict dimensions within mainstream parties by associating the pro-globalization stance with cultural liberalism and the anti-integration stances with cultural conservatism (Kriesi et al.2006; Prosser 2016). However, 7 Kriesi et al. still expected empirically that the main lines of conflict would be restricted empirically to what he terms “peripheral” versus mainstream parties. However, while we recognise that there are strong reasons for pro-integration parties to remain committed to these stances for reputational and strategic reasons (Rohrschneider and Whitefield 2016), there is reason to doubt that international issues are the preserve of only extremist or niche parties nearly a decade into the economic and other crises in Europe. There are clearly a growing number of Eurosceptical voter and office-seeking parties should have incentives to pursue them (Hobolt and de Vries 2016). We find increasingly clear evidence of this in cases such as the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom or Fidesz in Hungary or PiS in Poland. Political institutions have become linked to these contentious economic and cultural debates over integration, for at least two reasons. First, anti-integration stances may become associated with a more negative view about national institutions, especially among parties that are opposed to these shifts in national power for policy reasons and that have often had limited regime access. Second, much of the literature and public debate about this issue focuses strongly on the rise of populist parties, again often framed from a “niche” or extremist perspective. However, as we have argued elsewhere (Rohrschneider and Whitefield 2017), we see no little evidence that negative stances regarding national institutions are the preserve of niche and/or extremist parties only. Thus, to the degree that we see a split over integration stances emerge, we may well see that the same camps differ in their evaluations over how well institutions work. For the left anti-integration parties, national institutions no longer function to protect welfare or regulate corporate power. For the right anti-integration parties, these institutions fail to protect national culture and identity. So, while these critical parties may demand greater national control, they are highly critical of current national democratic practice. Accordingly, table 1 begins to outline various theoretical possibilities of how parties in each of our theorised fields may respond. The left-most column lists four important policy domains that 8 are either historically established (economy, cultural issues) or that have recently become more pressing (migration, regime evaluations). If our argument is correct, we expect that these issues divide parties within the “left” and “right” into distinct camps based on their integration view. That is to say, we would expect that the pro-EU left camp systematically associates a different position of domestic policies than the anti-EU left. In addition, we would expect the pro-EU right camp to do the same. The summary of our expectations about the stances of each field in Table 1 highlights this logic. We indicate how parties of left and right will broadly share positions on the economy, culture, and migration. We also indicate how the emergence of critical positions on national democracy and the evaluations of EU institutions relates to these fields. Table 1 about here Following from this, we outline the following expectations about the positions taken by party fields defined by ideology and views of integration. In each issue dimension, the first expectation regards the relationship between an issue position and left and right; the second incorporates the influence of nationalism on issues stances within the left and the right. Economy: 1. The economic dimension pits left versus right regardless of stances on international integration. 1a. Anti-integrationist parties of the left are most extreme on economic issues since they advance their criticism of internationalism in its economic effects; anti-integrationist parties of the right likely adopt a centrist (muddy) position because they appeal mainly on other issues and seek to win support across social groups that have quite distinct views on the economy. Culture: 2. The cultural dimension pits a liberal left versus conservative right regardless of stances on international integration. 9 2a. Within each ideological camp, integrationist parties will take more strongly liberal positions because, on the left, these parties have strongly supported the cultural benefits of liberalism, and on the right, because anti-integrationist parties have sought to play up the liberalism’s negative cultural consequences. Migration: 3. The migration dimension pits left versus right regardless of stances on international integration. 3a. Migration is relatively more strongly supported within each camp by integrationists who have seen it as essential to achieving the benefits of market integration and, among left integrationists, because it also satisfies some social justice concerns; however, it is strongly opposed especially by right anti-integrationists for both economic and cultural reasons; left antiintegrationists are less distinct from other left parties on this issue because they focus their criticism of internationalism on capital rather than labour (or poor migrants). National and EU regimes: 4. Stances on regimes’ democratic performance will cut across left and right camps. Prointegration parties see national and EU institutions as broadly delivering their programmes which they have been able to pursue because they had regular regime access, which anti-integration parties have (until very recently in some countries) been denied. Anti-integrationists on the left will be critical because national institutions fail to deliver welfare and regulate corporate power; those of the left see national institutions failing to protect national culture. Both anti-integrationist camps will see EU institutions as responsible for policies that threaten their constituents. 3. The surveys and measurement of political fields 10 We test these hypotheses using expert surveys conducted in 24 European nations in 2013 which cover all EU-member-states as of January 1, 2014 (except Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta). Given the significant number of small parties that exist in many party systems, we used two criteria to determine their inclusion in this study: (1) they were represented in a national parliament; and/or (2) they received at least 2% of the national vote in the last election. Overall, the 2013 CEE survey covers 71 parties in 10 EU member-states in CEE; and the WE survey covers 108 parties in 14 countries, for a total of 179 parties in 24 nations. The appendix table A1 lists the parties and countries included in the surveys, along with the number of experts for each country. We recruited experts from a master list of scholars who published a peer-reviewed article or book on her party system in the past ten years. Our search generated a list of names with over 1000 experts. For each country, we aimed to have ten completed questionnaires which we achieved for most countries (see Appendix). We conducted several analyses following Steenbergen and Marks (2007) and Coma and van Ham (2015) to check whether the variance decomposition of indicators in our expert surveys parallels that found in other expert-surveys. Extensive validation analyses show that our surveys produce empirical patterns that closely match those generated by other data sources.1 Moreover, merging the 2014 Chapel Hill estimates with our 2013 data, we find that, on general left-right ideology, estimates for party positions are virtually identical in the two surveys (r=.97). The UNC cultural position indicator (“Gal-Tan”) is also closely related to a cultural issue indicator based on migration, social policies, and civil liberties in our expert surveys (r=.93). Finally, we find a strong relationship regarding parties’ position about European integration r=.93). All told, these patterns suggest that these different expert surveys produce broadly identical estimates for party positions. To operationalize the theoretical interests in political fields defined by parties’ international positions as we developed above, we first considered party stances on European integration using 1 For example, there is a high correlation between the ideological placement of parties in expert surveys and the programmatic perceptions of parties by voters (see Dalton et al. 2011). We also validated the expert surveys with extensive analyses (Rohrschneider and Whitefield 2012). 11 three measures included in the expert surveys (see the appendix for details on question wording). These measure party positions towards economic, political, and general integration. Since we also asked respondents to indicate the general left-right ideology of parties, with 1 denoting the extreme left and 7 denoting an extreme right, combine the integration and ideology indicator by dichotomizing the left-right scale at the mid-point; and by trichotomizing the integration scale. We then combined them as follows (again, see the measurement table for more details) Anti-integrationist right: parties are ideologically conservative and against integration; Anti-integrationist left: parties are ideologically in the left half and against integration; Integrationist left: parties are ideologically in the left half and support integration; Integrationist right: parties are ideologically in the left half and support integration; Muddy left: parties are ideologically left and in the middle of the integration indicator; Muddy right: parties are ideologically on the right and in the middle of the integration indicator. Figure 1 about here The resulting distribution of parties is shown in Figure 1. The formula for dividing parties into fields depending on the combination of left-right ideology and stances on European integration produces 19 anti-integrationist right parties, 14 anti-integrationist left parties, 37 integrationist left parties, 46 integrationist right parties, 37 Muddy Left, and 31 Muddy Right. (Full details of parties by field are found in the Appendix.) We note that at least one field is missing in all but one country (Denmark) so clearly there are important country and regional differences at play that need to be taken into account. Parties of the anti-integrationist left appear less frequently in Central and Eastern Europe compared to the West and those of the integrationist right and muddy-right somewhat more frequently. Anti-integrationist left parties are more likely to be present however in countries affected by the economic crisis.2 2 Clearly, we are interested in explaining cross-national and cross-regional variation in the presence of each field – as we are also in considering the impact of time on existing parties and on new entrants to each field. However 12 An approach of this sort to understanding the role of international issues in contemporary party competition differs from the existing focus on mainstream versus niche parties, since the latter are generally expected to take stances only on issues that are weakly connected to the main dimensions of party competition over which mainstream parties dominate. It also seeks to advance, though not replace, long-standing conceptualisation of party families (Mair and Mudde, 1998) as well as to simplify the range of fields in which parties are arrayed. The key thing about the party family approach is that it relies not only on a left-right ideological spectrum but that it makes judgements about family status on the basis of parties’ stances on almost entirely national domestic issues: the economy and culture. But, we argue, if international issues have become a significant sorting factor for parties, then the party family approach is inadequate since we would expect that the existing party family typology would be cut across to a significant degree by the intrusion of international issues. Accordingly, table 2 cross-tabulates each field defined by internationalism stances with party family. Not surprisingly since our measure incorporates ideological stances, we find considerable overlap between fields and party families (Cramer’s V = .51). This is most pronounced, gratifyingly, with respect to the anti-integrationist party families on left and right. Parties of the antiintegrationist left are mainly drawn from the Communist, Socialist and Green families (though notably from all three of them). But we also see that parties of the integrationist left may also be drawn from Socialists, Greens, Centrists/Liberals and even one Christian-democratic party, as well as (mainly) from Social-democrats. Similarly, the integrationist right includes Conservative, Christiandemocrats, as well as many Centrists and Liberals. Our analytical goal, again, is not to suggest that the concept of party family has no meaning in a domestic context, since party families conceptually are linked to stances on domestic issues. Rather, we suggest that stances on integration will only imperfectly fit with domestic lines of division and the evidence suggests that integration does indeed this goes beyond the focus of the current paper and so in the analysis which follows we introduce controls for both national characteristics. 13 divide parties of the left and the right into distinctive camps in ways that evidence only about party family does not show. Table 3 about here 4. Fields of party politics We next turn to the ways in which political fields defined by ideology and stances towards integration issues relate to parties’ positions on a range of other issue dimensions. Thus, in line with the theoretical expectations presented in Table 1, we expect parties of the right to take similar views on the many issues – economy, culture, migration - but to be quite distinctively located on others – especially national and EU institutions. The same will hold true of parties of the left. We start then by considering the stances of parties in each field on a range of economic issues.3 These items were combined a scale that reflects stances on the economy from support for government intervention and redistribution (low score) to support for free markets (high score). Figure 2 about here The results shown in Figure 2 are roughly in line with our expectations but nonetheless throw up some surprises. While left parties are clearly more pro-redistributive, we observe substantial differences within the left camp across the integration dimension. Anti-integrationist left parties are considerably more leftist than the integrationist left across every single issue area. On the combined scale, ranging from a minimum of 3 to a maximum of 21, the difference between the anti and pro-EU left parties is fully 7.7 points (12.7 vs. 20.4). This suggests to us that the antiintegrationist left uses a distinct anti-market stance to appeal to critics of the EU’s neo-liberal markets. Moreover, a comparison on the left also indicates that the muddy-left is also consistently more supportive of redistributive policies than the integrationists, though the difference (2 points) is 33 The measurement table in the appendix describes the wording for each item. 14 not as pronounced. A similar pattern appears on the right, where parties as a group are clearly more economically pro-market, but here integrationist right parties are much more so than the antiintegrationist right, which are rather close to the muddy on almost all economic items. So, it appears that the effect of left-right ideology remains in understanding the broad stances of parties on the economy, but integration positions divide left and right internally. Next, we consider the stances of each field on items associated with the liberal-conservative dimension. Again, on the basis of several indicators, we created a summary indicator gauging where parties stand on social issues, the environment, and civil liberties (appendix table). Figure 3 about here As with economic issues, Figure 3 shows that the integration fields are both as expected and also differentiated in interesting ways on liberal-conservative issues. The left on liberalism issues appears to be fairly united: anti-integrationist, integrationist and muddy-left parties are broadly liberal in their views, with no more than a 1-point difference on the combined scale. This suggests that the left does associate cultural issues with pro and anti-EU stances, even though the integrationist left stands out as the relatively most liberal party on these issues. On the right however a rather clear difference emerges: the anti-integrationist right is clearly more conservative culturally than the integrationist right on the summary scale and even more so when their relatively centrist position on the environment is set aside: on a 7-point scale (with 7 = conservative position), anti-integrationist right parties overall score 5.63 on social liberalism and 6.32 on law and order, compared to 3.78 and 4.29 respectively for integrationist right parties (more than 4 points difference on the 20 point scale). Again, therefore, it appears that standard expectations about where parties stand on liberal-conservative questions are met when we view party systems overall from extreme left to right, but that integrationist parties are driven in a more liberal direction by comparison with other parties within the left and right camps. 15 Finally, in light of our theoretical expectations, we consider three further questions that may be relevant to each party field: migration and the performance of national as well as EU democratic institutions. The first of these taps into an issue of great contemporary salience, with migration often seen as a particularly central issue to the anti-integrationist right. The second two tap into concerns of many critics of ‘establishment’ politics. Figure 4 about here As Figure 4 shows, anti-integrationist right parties are very clear (anti-migration) outliers. Indeed, the anti-integrationist and muddy-right are the only fields that adopts a negative (less than 4 on the 7-point scale) migration stance, which accords with our expectations about the integrationist camp – the integrationist right in fact is broadly positive about migration. Regarding the antiintegrationist left, however, our expectations are not fully met, since these parties are only slightly less supportive of migration than the integrationist left. Again, it appears that positive stances on integration associate with stances of both left and right in a more pro-migration direction. Figure 5 about here Finally, as Figure 5 shows, evaluations of national and especially EU regimes’ democratic performance by party field show sharp divisions between anti-integrationist parties of left and right, on the one hand, and integrationist parties of both ideological persuasions, on the other. The most positive evaluations, however, come from the integrationist and muddy-right and the most negative from the anti-integrationist left, which if anything appears even more committed to ‘antiestablishment politics’ than the anti-integrationist right. Summary: Grouping parties by a combination of their stances on international issues and their ideological position appears to map them in distinctive ways on the main dimensions of party competition – the economy and liberalism-conservativism issues. Two main points emerge. First, we show differences within left and right camps that appear to relate systematically to integration 16 stances. Second, only with regard to views of national democratic institutions do anti-integrationist parties of left and right appear to converge in a distinctively critical stance. 5. Multivariate analysis The patterns revealed in the bivariate analysis are suggestive of the importance of where parties stand on international issues for their broader policy perspectives on the main dimensions of party competition as well as other issues. However, in themselves they do not allow us to conclude that it is the party fields that are of relevance, since it is possible that what is driving the variance we observe are other features of parties or country-level differences. We need first, therefore, to introduce country-level controls to the analysis. Two contextual characteristics likely impact on the distribution of fields. First, and obviously, the quality of national democratic institutions may incline parties to take more critical stances regarding the quality of national democratic institutions. Countries with poor quality institutions may also give rise to concerns about core elements of liberalism – political and social rights – and high levels of corruption may increase (or undermine) support for redistributive policies. Second, the level of affluence of a country may similarly incline parties to adopt more or less welfare supportive or economically liberal stances or shift parties towards greater support for post-material culturally liberal values. We therefore specific a multilevel multivariate model that controls for these country differences. Theoretically, we see two main challenges to the usefulness of the concept of party fields that are sorted by left and right and stances on integration. First, we control for the possibility that differences between party fields is simply an effect of ideological extremism – in other words, that the fields do in fact identify differences in parties within the broad left and right camps, including those that are relatively ideologically centrist. We examine this by including a dummy variable gauging whether a party is in the left/right most ten percent on the ideology scale. Second, we control for the possibility that differences are the result of the stances taken by niche parties driven by political entrepreneurs that have emerged specifically to compete by taken extreme positions on 17 one or more ideological dimensions. Hence, we also control for party age and whether a party is a new entrant to the electoral market after 2008. Together, the variables of extremism and party age controls for the mainstream-challenging party dimension in European politics and thus assures that our typology does not just duplicate information contained by this dimension. Figures 6-9 about here The findings in Figures 6-9 are strikingly similar to the bivariate picture that emerged above for each of the four issue dimensions. Perhaps the most important takeaway, therefore, is that the utility of the concept of fields defined by stances on integration and left-right is not removed either by the country controls or by the two main alternative accounts of the differences discussed above. These are not effects simply of ideological extremism or niche status but are evident even when both of these are taken into account. Our findings regarding the associations between our international typology and domestic issue positions remain robust. Stances on integration and domestic issue positions appear to define distinctive positions within left and right and not just on the ideological extremes or new parties seeking to establish themselves in a unique set of issue positions. In short, as we have argued above, incentives to parties to offer alternatives to voters within left and right camps, appears to mean that integration is integrated into party positions across all party types. The relationships we observed earlier also stand up. Left and right continue to strongly define ideological camps on most dimensions; the left as a whole is more left on the economy, more liberal on culture, and more supportive of migration than the right. The scheme we adopt, moreover, shows the ongoing utility of separating the left and right centrist parties on integration stances, since left-muddy are much more like other leftist parties on most dimensions than they are like right ones. However, our scheme also points to the value of understanding integration stances for positions within left and right camp. The more pro-integration the party within each camp, the more likely it is to be more right-wing on the economy, more liberal on culture, and more supportive 18 of migration. These findings are absolutely consistent across these policy dimensions. Antiintegrationist parties are not like one another on any of these dimensions. There is one issue, however, on which integration stances appear strongly to shape party stances independently of their left-right ideology, namely on the question of the performance of national democratic institutions. Here, again controlling for extremism and niche status, both the anti-integrationist right and especially the left are strongly negative and all other parties are more positive, especially the (right) integrationist ones. As we predicted, since national institutions do not protect the economic agendas of the left or the cultural agendas of the right, so critical parties have emerged in both camps. 7. Conclusions This paper has built on some previous work, especially by Kriesi, and argued for the need to take international issues as a defining factor in contemporary party competition. Rather than seeing questions such as economic integration, culture, and migration, as challenging but largely orthogonal to the ideological space, we suggest that these issues have already largely been incorporated systematically into the politics of left and right. Our perspective and evidence, however, runs quite counter to much of the literature that points to the orthogonality of integration to one or both of the main lines of political division – the economy and culture – or that integration reframes only the cultural dimension in a new way based on winners and losers from globalization. Moreover, our findings remain even when we control for extremism and new entrant parties as well as party age. Thus, while our analysis therefore largely supports Kriesi’s conceptual expectations, we observe that the sorting of parties on the left and right by stances on integration goes beyond niche and extreme parties. Rather, it has an impact in shaping the positions of all parties across the ideological spectrum. 19 It is a significant new finding of the paper, however, that the issue of national democratic institutions, emerges as a clearly orthogonal dimension on which the anti-integrationist left and right converge in their evaluations. We argue that this is because pro-integrationist parties have been able successfully to control national institutions for their purposes and thus their opponents have come to see both that these institutions fail to deliver on welfare or cultural defences of nations and that such parties have been excluded from access to institutions. For this reason, cultural and economic issues of integration have become embedded in issues of democratic control. Those in control, in these circumstances can be more easily labelled elites or the establishment. The politicisation of integration on this dimension may be new newest and most contentious aspect of contemporary party competition. Whether it remains so, is a matter of considerable interest. The continued exclusion of these parties may entrench their anti-establishment hostility. But we can envisage two ways in which anti-integration stances may become decoupled from regime critical politics. First, as we observe in the Hungarian (and likely) Polish examples, electoral victories by previously strongly critical and anti-integrationist parties such as Fidesz and PiS can be accompanied by strongly positive shifts in their stances on national institutions as they gain the power to reshape them in power. In these cases, however, the switch to pro-regime stances is likely to be accompanied by strongly negative shifts in the institutional evaluations of their pro-integration and liberal opponents. Second, as might be the case in the United Kingdom, an anti-integrationist switch by parties (Conservative and Labour) that have had long-standing access to government and with historically positive views of national institutions may weaken the regime critical aspect of anti-integration politics. Whether, therefore, a schism over democratic institutions will take on the character of a sustained and deep divide in European party competition remains an open question. Nonetheless, as in the Hungarian example, it is not difficult to see the potential that this might result. 20 We believe that at least some of the public discussion of relationship between antiintegrationist parties of left and right is clarified by this analysis. Take the following stylised (but hopefully accurate) example of the positions of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in the US presidential campaigns. Both opposed free trade and globalization and were strongly critical of domestic economic and political elites. But Sanders was clearly left in his economic policy, since his criticisms of the international order were mainly economic in character, while Trump’s position was much less rhetorically clear in economic terms and much more based in cultural fears. Antiintegrationists of left and right have quite different profiles. They do not appear to be fishing in the same pool of voters, except with regard to their strong criticisms of domestic democratic institutions. Clearly, there are numerous questions emerging from this investigation. We have dealt here with only a few party-level factors associated with each political field. We have also considered the role of national context in a relatively narrow fashion - essentially as controls. 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In general terms, please locate each party on the ideological spectrum in [country], with 1 standing for left wing, and 7 standing for right wing.” Parties on the conservative half of the ideology scale and are equal or score less than 3 on the 7-point integration indicator. Parties on the left half of the ideology scale and are equal or score less than 3 on the 7-point integration indicator. Parties on the conservative half of the ideology scale and are equal or score more 5 on the 7-point integration indicator. Parties on the left half of the ideology scale and are equal or score more 5 on the 7-point integration indicator. Parties on the left half of the ideology scale and in the middle of the integration indicator (greater than 3 and less than 5). Parties on the right half of the ideology scale and in the middle of the integration indicator (greater than 3 and less than 5). Redistribution and welfare: ‘With regard to redistributional issues (for example, tax levels, welfare state spending), where does [party x] stand?’ 1 = strongly pro-welfare and redistribution; 7 = strongly pro-market and antiredistribution. Anti-integrationist right Anti-integrationist left Pro-integrationist right Pro-integrationist left Muddy left Muddy right Re-distribution Inequality ‘What position does [party x] take on social inequality in [country]?’ 1 = social inequality is unjustified and undesirable; 7 = justified (because of incentives, justice etc.) and desirable. Taxation and spending ‘What position does [party x] take on taxation?’ 1 = favors raising taxes to increase public spending; 7 = favors cutting public spending to cut taxes. Minimum wage ‘What stance does [party x] take on the minimum wage?’ 1 = strongly favor, 7 = strongly oppose. (NB. The scale is reversed here from the survey wording in order to make it fall in the same direction as the other items.) Welfare benefits ‘What stance does [party x] take on welfare benefits?’ 1 = strongly favor universal benefits, 7 = strongly support means-tested benefits. Health care ‘Does the party advocate for government provision of universal free health care or for expenses being paid by individuals who would pay from private 24 health insurance?’ 1 = strongly support universal free health care; 7 = strongly support private provision through health insurance. Higher education Summary indicator economic stances ‘Does [party x] support free higher education for all with qualifications or that higher education should be paid by individuals via savings and loans?’ 1 = free for all qualified; 7 = paid by individuals. This scale includes all 7 economic items. Alpha = .97. Scale ranges from 8-45. Social liberalism ‘Does [party x] favor liberal policies such as abortion, equal opportunities for women, homosexuality or euthanasia or does it oppose them’. 1 = support; 7 = oppose Environment Does [party x] support protection of the environment, even at the cost of some economic growth or support economic growth, even at the cost of damage to the environment. 1 = support protection; 7 = support growth. Civil liberties Does [party x] support policies to promote civil liberties, even when this hampers efforts to fight crime and promote law and order (or support tough measures to fight crime and promote law and order, even when this means curtailing civil liberties. 1 = support civil liberties; 7 = support law and order. Summary indicator cultural stances This scale includes all three items. Alpha = .86. Scale ranges from 3-20, with a low score indicating a more liberal stance. The results are shown in Table 7. Migration ‘What position does [party x] take on migration of people in and out of [country]?’ 1 = oppose; 7 = support. “What about the party’s view of how well democracy works in [country]? Do parties hold positive (7) or negative views (1)?” “And on the whole, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [country]?” where 0 denotes an extremely dissatisfied citizens and 10 an extremely satisfied one. We recoded the original variable to range from 0 to 1 by dividing the original score by 10. New significant party since 2008 Party stances on Regime Performance Parties’ evaluations of Regime Performance New party Party Age Extremism Institutional quality Parties in the most extreme 10% on the left and most extreme 10% on the right Additive index of 2012 World Bank scores on corruption, rule of law, and electoral integrity (http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#faq2; accessed October 2, 2014). GDPcap Source: IMF/Eurostat, 2012 25 Table 1. General Expectations Left Economy Culture Migration National Democracy EU Democracy Right Economy Culture Migration National Democracy EU Democracy Anti-Integrationist Interventionist Liberal Pro-migrant Critical Critical Centrist Strongly illiberal Strongly opposed Critical Critical Integrationist Market friendly but pro-welfare Strongly liberal Strongly pro-migrant Positive Positive Strongly pro-market Illiberal Supportive Strongly positive Positive 26 Table 2. Integration fields by party family (Cramer’s V = .51***; significant at .000) AntiIntegrationist Muddy Muddy Integrationist AntiIntegrationist left left right Right Integrationist left Right Communists 5 Socialists 4 Greens 1 Social Democrats 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 7 7 1 0 0 16 13 1 1 0 Centrist/Liberal 1 6 6 4 17 0 Christian Democrats 0 2 1 9 9 1 Conservatives 0 0 2 12 17 5 Nationalists 1 0 0 4 1 13 27 Figure 1. Party fields by integration stances and left-right 28 Figure 2: Mean score of integration fields on economic issues 0 10 20 30 Economic Stances by Nationalism-Internationalism Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right Int Right Nat Right 29 Figure 3: Mean scores of integration fields on liberal-conservative issues 0 5 10 15 20 Cultural Stances by Nationalism-Internationalism Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right Int Right Nat Right 30 Figure 4: Mean scores of integration fields on migration and performance of national democratic and European institutions 0 1 2 3 4 5 Migration Stances by Nationalism-Internationalism Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right Int Right Nat Right 31 Figure 5: Mean Scores of National and EU Institutional Evaluations 0 1 2 3 4 5 National/EU Regime Evaluations by Nationalism-Internationalism Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right Int Right Nation EU Nat Right 32 Figure 6. Party stances on the economy controlling for country characteristics (HDI and Corruption) and for ideological extremism, party age and new entrants. 10 15 20 25 30 35 Economic Issues (8 left 45 right) Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right intnat6 Int Right Nat Right Figure 7. Party stances on cultural liberalism controlling for country characteristics (HDI and Corruption) and for ideological extremism, party age and new entrants 8 10 12 14 16 18 Cultural Liberalism (3) Conservatism (21) Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right intnat6 Int Right Nat Right 33 Figure 8. Party stances on migration controlling for country characteristics (HDI and Corruption) and for ideological extremism, party age and new entrants 3 4 5 6 7 Migration (1 Pro 7 Oppose) Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right intnat6 Int Right Nat Right 34 Figure 9. Party stances on performance of national and EU democratic institutions controlling for country characteristics (HDI and Corruption) and for ideological extremism, party age and new entrants 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 National Democracy (1 Poor 7 Strong Performance) Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right intnat6 Int Right Nat Right 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 EU Democracy (1 Poor 7 Strong Performance) Nat Left Int left Centre left Centre right intnat6 Int Right Nat Right 35 Appendix: Parties in the survey and by field Country: WE Party Name in RW survey Austria Social Democratic Party of Austria Austrian People's Party The Greens Freedom Party of Austria Alliance for the Future of Austria Team Stronach Acronym SPO OVP GRUNE FPO BZO TS Field Cntr.Left Int.Right Int.Left Nat.Right Cntr.Right Nat.Right Belgium Christian-Democratic & Flemish New Flemish Alliance Reform Movement Flemish Interest Flemish Liberals and Democrats Socialist Party Socialist Party. Different Humanist Democratic Muddy Ecologists List Dedecker The Flemish Greens CDV N-VA MR VB VLD PS SPA CDH ECOLO LDD GROEN Int.Right Cntr.Right Int.Right Nat.Right Int.Right Cntr.Left Cntr.Left Int.Left Cntr.Left Cntr.Right Cntr.Right Denmark Denmark's Liberal Party Social Democracy Danish People's Party Socialist People's Party Conservative People's Party Radical Liberals Unity List - The Red-Greens Liberal Alliance V S DF SF KF RV EL NA Int.Right Cntr.Left Nat.Right Cntr.Left Cntr.Right Int.Left Nat.Left Cntr.Right Finland Finnish Muddy National Coalition Party Finnish Social Democratic Party Left Alliance Green Alliance Finnish Christian Democrats Swedish People's Party in Finland True Finns KESK KOK SDP VAS VIHR KD SFP PS Cntr.Right Int.Right Int.Left Cntr.Left Cntr.Left Cntr.Right Int.Right Nat.Left France Union for a Popular Movement Socialist Party Democratic Movement National Front The Greens New Muddy Radical Party of the Left Radical Party Left Front Centrist Alliance UMP PS MoDem FN VERTS NC PRG PR FDG AC Int.Right Int.Left Int.Right Nat.Right Int.Left Int.Right Int.Left Int.Left Nat.Left In.Right 36 Germany Christian Democracy Union Christian Social Union Social Democratic Party of Germany Free Democratic Party The Left (Party of Democratic Socialism, PDS) Alliance 90/The Greens Piratenpartei CDU CSU SPD FDP DIE LINKE GRUNE Piraten Int.Right Cntr.Right Int.Left Int.Right Cntr.Left Int.Left Cntr.Left Greece New Democracy Panhellenic Socialist Movement Communist Party of Greece Coalition of the Radical Left Independent Greeks Golden Dawn Democratic Left ND PASOK KKE SYRIZA ANEL XA DIMAR Int.Right Int.Right Nat.Left Cntr.Left Nat.Right Nat.Right Int.Left Ireland Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Party Sinn Fein Green Party Socialist People Before Profit Alliance FF FG LAB SF GP SP PBP Cntr.Right Int.Right Cntr.Left Nat.Left Cntr.Left Nat.Left Nat.Left Italy Left Democrats League North The People of Freedom Union of the Muddy Five Star Movement Civic Choice Left_Dem LN PDL UDC M5S SC Int.Left Nat.Right Cntr.Right Int.Right Nat.Left Int.Left Netherlands Christian Democratic Appeal Labour Party Socialist Party People's Party for Freedom and Democracy Freedom Party Green Left Christian Union Democrats 66 Party for the Animals Reformed Political Party 50 Plus CDA PvdA SP VVD PVV GL CU D66 PvdD SGP 50+ Cntr.Right Cntr.Left Nat.left Cntr.Right Nat.Right Int.Left Cntr.Left Int.Left Cntr.Left Nat.Right Cntr.Left Portugal Socialist Party Social Democratic Party Portuguese Communist Party Democratic Social Muddy Left Bloc PS PSD PCP CDS-PP BE Int.Left Int.Right Nat.Left Cntr.Right Cntr.Left Spain Spanish Socialist Workers' Party PSOE Int.Left 37 People's Party United Left Initiative for Catalonia Greens Convergence and Union of Catalonia Basque National Party Union, Progress, and Democracy Amaiur PP IU ICV CiU EAJ-PNV UPyD AMAIUR Int.Right Cntr.Left Int.Left Int.Right Int.Right Int.Right Cntr.Left Sweden Social Democratic Workers' Party Moderate Rally Party Muddy Party Liberal People's Party Christian Democrats Left Party Environment Party The Greens Sweden Democrats SAP M C FP KD VP MP SD Cntr.Left Int.Right Cntr.Right Int.Right Cntr.Right Nat.Left Nat.Left Nat.Right UK Labour Party Conservative Party Liberal Democrats Scottish National Party Plaid Cymru UK Independence Party LAB CON LD SNP PC UKIP Cntr.Left Nat.Right Int.Left Cntr.Left Cntr.Left Nat.Right 38 Country CEE Party Name in RW survey Bulgaria Bulgarian Socialist Party GERB Movement for Rights and Freedoms National Union Attack Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria Movement “Citizen’s Bulgaria” Acronym BSP GERB DPS ATAKA DSB DBG Field Cntr.Left Int. Right Cntr..Left Nat.Right Int.Right Int.Right Czech Rep. Civic Democratic Party Czech Social Democratic Party Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia Christian and Democratic Union Green Party Public Affairs Traditional Responsibility Party Party of Civic Rights ODS CSSD KSCM KDU-CSL SZ VV TOP09 SPOZ Cntr.Right Int.Left Nat.Left Int.Left Int.Left Cntr.Right Int.Right Cntr.Left Estonia Estonian Reform Party Estonian Muddy Party Pro Patria and Res Publica Union Social Democratic Party Estonian Greens Conservative People’s Party RF (RE) EK IrL SDE ER EKRE Int.Right Cntr.Left Int.Right Int.Left Cntr.Left Nat.Right Hungary Hungarian Socialist Party Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union Politics Can Be Different Movement for a Better Hungary Together 2014 MSZP FIDESZ LMP JOBBIK Egyutt Int.Left Nat.Right Int.Left Nat.Right Int.Left Latvia Union of Greens and Peasants Harmony Muddy Reform Party Unity National Alliance Latvian Green Party ZZS SC RP V TB/LNNK LZP Cntr.Right Cntr.Left Int.Right Int. Right Cntr.Right Cntr.Right Lithuania Lithuanian Social Democratic Party Fatherland Union Order and Justice - Liberal Democrats Liberal’s Movement of the Republic of Lithuania Labour Party Lithuanian Poles' Electoral Alliance Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union Way of Courage Lithuanian Green Party LSDP TS-LK TiT LrLS DP LrA LVZS DK LLZP Int.Left Int.Right Cntr.Right Int.Right Cntr.Left Cntr.Left Cntr.Left Int.Right Cntr.Left Poland Law and Justice Civic Platform PIS PO Nat.Right Int. Right 39 Democratic Left Alliance Polish People's Party United Poland Palikot’s Movement LiD PSL SP RP Int.Left Cntr.Right Cntr.Right Int.Left Romania Social Democratic Party Democratic Liberal Party National Liberal Party Conservative Party Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania Christian Democratic National Peasant’s Party New Republic Party Civic Force People’s Party-Dan Diaconescu PSD PDL PNL PC UDMR PNTCD PNR FC PP-DD Int.Left Int.Right Int.Right Cntr.Right Int.Right Int.Right Int.Right Int.Right Nat.Left Slovakia Christian Democratic Movement Slovak Democratic and Christian Union Direction - Social Democracy Party of the Hungarian Coalition Slovak National Party Ordinary People and Independent Personalities Bridge Freedom and Solidarity New Majority Party KDH SDKU Smer MKP SNS OL’aNO MH SAS NV Cntr.Right Int.Right Int.Left Int.Right Nat.Right Cntr.Right Int.Right Cntr.Right Cntr.Right Slovenia Slovenian Democratic Party Social Democrats Slovenian People's Party New Slovenia - Christian People's Party Democratic Pensioners' Party of Slovenia Positive Slovenia Civic List SDS SD SLS NS DSUS PS DL Cntr.Right Int.Left Cntr.Right Cntr.Right Cntr.Left Cntr.Left Int.Right
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