Not sure what talks to go to, just check the short summary of each talk on the
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People/
Pathway/
Policy/
Table of Contexts
Day 1-Policy
Morning
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00-12.50) ................................................ 15
Parallel A: Air Quality; Co-Benefits-Room G01 .................................... 15
The impacts of policies to meet the UK climate change act target on air
quality -an explicit modelling study ..................................................... 16
Air quality co-benefit evaluation of China’s carbon peaking effort based
on China-MAPLE model ....................................................................... 17
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00-12.50) ................................................ 18
Parallel B: Water Land Energy NEXUS-Room G02................................ 18
Global freshwater demand for electricity generation to 2100 under
low-carbon scenarios .......................................................................... 19
Advanced stochastic optimization modeling of the water-energy-food
nexus for robust energy and agricultural development: Coal mining
industry in Shanxi province, China....................................................... 20
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00-12.50) ................................................ 21
Parallel C: Energy System Innovation-Room G03 ................................ 21
The Political Economy of Energy Innovation ........................................ 22
Optimal international technology cooperation for the 2degree target
............................................................................................................ 23
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00-12.50) ................................................ 24
Parallel D: Power System Pathways-Room G04 ................................... 24
Nuclear off or on? The impact of nuclear power generation on
electricity wholesale prices in a small, open economy-evidence of
nuclear power plants’ restart in Belgium............................................. 25
Integration of VRE in the Nordic Energy System.................................. 26
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00-12.50) ................................................ 27
Parallel E: Post Paris Pathways-Room G05 .......................................... 27
On the way to a decarbonized world: .................................................. 28
An analysis of the Paris climate agreement with TIAM-FR ................... 28
Assessing the ambition level of INDCs target of US, EU, China and
India .................................................................................................... 29
Day 1-Policy
Afternoon
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 30
Parallel A: Air Quality; Co-Benefits-Room G01 .................................... 30
Assessing Health Externalities of Fossil Fuel Power in Taiwan .............. 31
Up in the Air: A framework for quantifying the co-impacts of energy
sector decarbonisation on outdoor air pollution ................................. 32
Is energy transition beneficial to sectors with high employment
content? An input-output analysis for France ................................. 33
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 34
Parallel B: Bioenergy Pathways-Room G02.......................................... 34
Bioenergy as a Potential to Avoid Early Phase Out of Stranded Assets 35
Assessing the long-term potential of bioenergy in electricity, heat and
grid balancing markets: case study for Switzerland ............................. 36
Evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting methodology
in energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 using a scenario
approach: A case study of UK .............................................................. 37
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 38
Parallel C: Decarbonisation Pathways-Room G03................................ 38
Regional Climates, Impacts, and strategic SRM .................................. 39
Offshore CCS and Ocean Acidification: A Global Long-Term
Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change Mitigation ....... 40
Long-term dynamics of technological change in mitigation scenarios 41
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 42
Parallel D: Macro & Social Economic Impacts-Room G04.................... 42
Economic Structural Change as an Option for Mitigating the Impacts of
Climate Change ................................................................................... 43
The Deployment of Low Carbon Technologies in Energy Intensive
Sectors: A GCE Analysis for Europe, China and India ........................... 44
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 45
Parallel E: Post Paris Pathways-Room G05 .......................................... 45
Transparency and Comparability of the INDCs — Results from the
WITCH model ..................................................................................... 46
Equitable burden sharing: ........................................................ 47
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of the carbon
constrained energy system using etsap- tiam-macro ................ 47
Achieving net-zero emissions: reframing national targets in the postParis Agreement era ............................................................................ 48
Day 1-Policy
Late Afternoon
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ..................................... 49
Parallel A: Residential Energy Efficiency-Room G01 ............................ 49
The Adaptation of the US Residential Sector to Global Warming ....... 50
The price of energy efficiency in the Spanish housing market ............. 51
Residential energy efficiency and European carbon policies. A CGEanalysis with bottom-up information on energy efficiency technologies
............................................................................................................ 52
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ..................................... 53
Parallel B: Water Energy Land Nexus-Room G02................................. 53
Modelling the competition for land: the ............................................ 54
Food-Energy nexus in Ireland.............................................................. 54
Water Balance Effects of Domestic Agricultural Land Use and
Management Shifts Due to U.S. Biofuel Policies ............................... 55
SUSTAINABLE FOREST-BASED BIOENERGY IN EURASIA ....................... 56
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ..................................... 57
Parallel C: Decarbonisation Pathways-Room G03................................ 57
Carbon counterfactuals – Proximity-based synthetic controls for CO2
emission trajectories ........................................................................... 58
Pathways to deep decarbonization in Italy .......................................... 59
Integrated Assessment of the Prospects for Hydrogen Technology
through 2100 using a Regionally Disaggregated DNE21.................. 60
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ..................................... 61
Parallel D: Marco and Social Impacts-Room G04................................. 61
Long-term macroeconomic impact of US unconventional Oil and Gas
production: a general equilibrium perspective................................. 62
Intergenerational discounting with ..................................................... 63
intergenerational inequality in consumption and the environment .... 63
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ..................................... 64
Parallel E: Sustainable Development-Room G05 ................................. 64
Who benefits from infrastructure development through carbon
pricing? - Insights from Nigeria............................................................ 65
Compatibility of the se4all energy efficiency objective with renewable
energy, energy access, and climate mitigation targets ....................... 66
Climate resilience and reserves in the developing world .................... 67
Day 2-Pathways
Morning
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) ................................................ 68
Parallel A: Modelling Uncertainty-Room G01 ...................................... 68
New methodological approach for planning cities sustainable and
resilient energy futures – the case of the InSMART project .................. 69
The Use of Bottom-up Optimisation Models in Different Modes for
Analysing the Transition to Sustainable Urban Areas .......................... 70
From Shared Socio-Economic Baseline Assumptions to CO2 Fossil Fuels
Emissions ............................................................................................. 71
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) ................................................ 72
Parallel B: Environmental Taxes, Trade and Markets-Room G02......... 72
Blending Under Uncertainty: Insights from the Biofuels Industry ....... 73
Interaction between CO2 emissions trading and renewable energy
subsidies under uncertainty: feed-in-tariffs as a safety net against over
allocation ............................................................................................. 74
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) ................................................ 75
Parallel C: Decarbonisation pathways- G03 ......................................... 75
U.S. Emissions and Technology Pathways toward 2050 Goals: The Role
of Temporal Flexibility ......................................................................... 76
IMPACTS OF FOSSIL FUELS EXTRACTION COSTS AND CARBON PRICING
ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICIES........................................................ 77
The role of direct air capture in achieving the Paris climate
targets ............................................................................................... 78
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) ................................................ 79
Parallel D: Power System Pathways - G04 ........................................... 79
Using resource based slicing to capture the intermittency of variable
renewables .......................................................................................... 80
Hydropower Externalities:
A Meta-Analysis .................................... 81
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) ................................................ 82
Parallel E: Sustainable Development Pathways - G05.......................... 82
Cost and returns of renewable energy in Sub‐Saharan Africa. A
comparison of Kenya and Ghana ......................................................... 83
An Indicative Analysis of Investment Opportunities in the African
Electricity Supply Sector - Using TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for
Africa) .................................................................................................. 84
A climate resilient Africa - Calculating the cost of adaptation to climate
change for the African Countries......................................................... 85
Day 2-Pathways
Afternoon
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 86
Parallel A: Modelling Uncertainty -Room G01 ..................................... 86
An Alternate Methodology to Sensitivity Testing using Stochastic
Modelling and the South African TIMES Model ................................... 87
Sensitivity of Modeling Results to Technological and Regional Details:
The Case of Italy’s Carbon Mitigation Policy ........................................ 88
Adapting long-lived infrastructure to uncertain and transient change
............................................................................................................ 89
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 90
Parallel B: Environmental Taxes, Markets and Trade- G02 .................. 90
Cost-Efficiency of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS): An ExPost Analysis ........................................................................................ 91
Environmental Policies that Maximise Social Welfare: The Role of
Intergenerational Inequality ................................................................ 92
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 93
Parallel C: Decarbonisation pathways - G03 ........................................ 93
CO2 Mitigation for Climate Risk Management .................................... 94
Modelling investment in upstream gas and implications for future
supply curves under different demand scenarios ............................. 95
A multi-model method to analyse the economics of power-to-gas for
renewable integration .......................................................................... 96
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)............................................. 97
Parallel D: Decarbonisation pathways - G04 ........................................ 97
The role of capital costs for decarbonizing the power sector .............. 98
Electricity grid and storage: complements or ..................................... 99
substitutes? ........................................................................................ 99
Evaluating the capacity of Integrated Assessment Models to represent
system integration challenges of wind and solar power ................... 100
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00 -15.15)........................................... 101
Parallel E: Decarbonisation pathways - G05 ...................................... 101
Actors Behaving Badly: Modelling Non-Optimal Behaviour in Energy
Transitions ......................................................................................... 102
Endogenizing Behavioral Effects and Infrastructure Investments in
COCHIN-TIMES model and their Implications for Climate Policy
Analysis .............................................................................................. 103
Time use, lifestyle and energy consumption: lessons from time use and
budget data for French households ................................................. 104
Day 2-Pathways
Afternoon
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ................................... 105
Parallel A: Modelling Uncertainty -Room G01 ................................... 105
Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long -term impacts of oil
prices on energy markets and carbon emissions ............................ 106
Integrated Assessment of Uncertain Climate
Catastrophes: What Does the Risk of Ice Sheet
Disintegration Imply for Economic Analyses of Climate
Policy?............................................................................................. 107
Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to
explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy
models ............................................................................................ 108
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ................................... 109
Parallel B: Environmental Taxes, Trades and Markets -Room G02 .... 109
Modelling gas transport capacity investments with limited knowledge
on future markets.............................................................................. 110
Consumption vs. Production Based CO2 Pricing Policies:
Macroeconomic Trade-Offs and Carbon Leakage.............................. 111
On the Transition of Europe’s Power Market - Benefits of Coordination
.......................................................................................................... 112
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ................................... 113
Parallel C: Decarbonisation pathways -Room G03............................. 113
Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios
for Europe ......................................................................................... 114
The sensitivity of system cost and wind power revenues to sub-optimal
investment in wind power capacity .................................................... 115
Swedish climate policy in 2050 – Does the targets need to be defined
now? ................................................................................................. 116
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ................................... 117
Parallel D: Power System pathway- G04............................................ 117
Transformation of the European Union’s power sector to 2030 –
Adding value to.................................................................................. 118
IRENA’s REmap 2030 project using a European Electricity Model ..... 118
The Economic Potential Value of Near- and Offshore Wind Energy: An
Application to the Portuguese Western Coast ................................... 119
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45 -17.00) ................................... 120
Parallel E: Behavior and People - G05................................................ 120
Willingness to pay for solar home systems in Guinea Bissau: consumers’
preferences for different delivery models .......................................... 121
Incorporating Social Influence Effects into Global Integrated
Assessment Models ........................................................................... 122
Day 3-People
Morning
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) .............................................. 123
Parallel A: Transport Pathways -Room G01 ....................................... 123
Implications of Future Freight Demand Growth for Climate Change
Mitigation.......................................................................................... 124
The role of carbon dioxide utilisation for transportation fuels in EU28
until 2050, an analysis using JRC-EU-times ........................................ 125
Modelling the role of Transport Infrastructure in a low‐carbon World
.......................................................................................................... 126
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) .............................................. 127
Parallel B: Environmental taxes, markets and trades -Room G02...... 127
Energy Security Scenarios of Future Europe. Assessing the impacts of
societal processes.............................................................................. 128
Can Energy Efficiency Standards Reduce Prices and Improve Quality?
Evidence from the US Clothes Washer Market ................................. 129
Unilateral emission pricing and OPEC’s behaviour ............................. 130
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) .............................................. 131
Parallel C: Macro and Socio Economic Impacts -Room G03 .............. 131
The macroeconomic impact of climate change mitigation action in
Latin America: a model comparison .................................................. 132
Modeling climate mitigation and economic growth in relation to
employment and skills in South Africa ............................................. 133
Managing climate damages: exploring potential trade-offs .............. 134
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) .............................................. 135
Parallel D: Power System pathways -Room G04 ................................ 135
Natural Gas Outlook for the Southern Cone: outcomes from an hourly
basis TIMES natural gas & power model............................................ 136
Resource diversity impacts on storage in a high variable renewable
power system .................................................................................... 137
Lifecycle Energy Demand and Indirect Greenhouse Gas Emissions of
the Electricity Sector ......................................................................... 138
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30-12.45) .............................................. 139
Parallel E: Post Paris Pathways-Room G05 ........................................ 139
Exploring pathways for fulfilment of Kazakhstan’s INDC targets ....... 140
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives ........................................... 141
Hybrid linking TIAM and IMACLIM-KLEM: Assessing technological
mitigation pathways from INDCs towards 1.5C ............................. 142
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00‐12.50)
Parallel A: Air Quality; Co‐Benefits‐Room G01
The impacts of policies to meet the UK
climate change act target on air quality ‐an
explicit modelling study
Martin L. Williams1, Sean D. Beevers1, Melissa C. Lott2 and Nutthida Kitwiroon1
This paper presents a preliminary analysis of different pathways to meet the UK
Climate Change Act target for 2050, of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide
equivalent emissions on a base year of 1990. Through the use of a soft-linked
energy system optimisation model and chemical transport model, the work
evaluated the air quality and public health impacts in these different pathways.
It also provided additional insights in two major areas – the impact of increased
spatial resolution and the relative role of air pollution that originates from both
within and external to the energy sector. Currently used methods of evaluating
the impact of decarbonisation pathways on air quality generally rely on the socalled ‘damage cost’ approach. In this approach a unit of air pollution emission
reduction of an air pollutant is associated with an economic cost of the airquality
disbenefit, based on a generic impact on air quality. Due to these
generalisations, the specific location and arrangement of the sources and
sensitive receptors is not considered.
1 Environmental Research Group, King’s College London, UK
2 Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, UK
Air quality co‐benefit evaluation of China’s
carbon peaking effort based on China‐MAPLE
model
Xi Yang, Fei Teng
China
University
of
Petroleum,
Tsinghua
University,
Beijing,
China
[email protected]
The paper focuses on these challenges and critical research topic, carried out
the depth energy conservation research to fulfill the peaking target in or before
2030, and evaluate the co-benefit of carbon mitigation on the local pollutant
reduction. Up to now, there are few studies evaluating the co-benefits and
peaking target at the same time at full economy sectors level. The work is based
on China-MAPLE model framework, partial equilibrium model with co-benefits
evaluation on technological level. Based on the Integrated Framework and three
scenarios study, three conclusions can be drawn.
Key words: air quality co-benefit, China-MAPLE model, carbon peaking, local
pollutant control.
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00‐12.50)
Parallel B: Water Land Energy NEXUS‐Room
G02
Global freshwater demand for electricity
generation to 2100 under low‐carbon
scenarios
Michela Bevione1,2, Laurent Drouet1,2 , Massimo Tavoni1,2
1 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei,
2 Centro
Euro-Mediterraneo
sui
Cambiamenti Climatici
Future water demand has been evaluated according to three different
scenarios:
the
baseline
scenario
(business-as-usual assumptions
throughout the century), a climate policy scenario (radiative forc- ing
target at 3.7 W/m2 by 2100) and a climate policy with technological constraint scenario (radiative forcing target at 3.7 W/m2 by 2100 combined
with nuclear phase-out after 2010). Results have been analyzed in terms
of water withdrawal and consumption, and the influence of the global
energy demand and the electricity generation mix on water demand has
been assessed.
Advanced stochastic optimization modeling
of the water‐energy‐food nexus for robust
energy and agricultural development: Coal
mining industry in Shanxi province, China
Junlian Gao1，Xiangyang Xu*1 , Gui-Ying Cao2, Yuri Ermoliev2, Tatiana
Ermolieva2 , Arkadii
Kryazhimskii2, Aline Mosnier2, Elena Rovenskaya2 , Cuiqin Su1， Qiang Wu1,
Center for Resources and Environmental Policy Research, School of
Management, China
We discuss a modeling framework able to carry out an integrated systems
analysis of interdependent energy-food-water-environmental systems while
accounting for the competition to those systems posed by restricted natural
resources under inherent uncertainties and systemic risks. The case
study focuses on developments of coal industry in water-scarce regions of
China. Coal is the main energy source in China responsible for country’s
energy security. However, coal-based industries consume large quantities of
water, what exacerbates the problem of scarce water resources. The model
accounts for water consumption by various coal mining, processing and
conversion technologies, as well as water and land requirements by different
crops and management systems. Uncertain water supply and demand require
robust solutions that would ensure demand-production balances and other
(environmental, social) constraints in all scenarios.
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00‐12.50)
Parallel C: Energy System Innovation‐Room
G03
The Political Economy of Energy Innovation
Insights on the past trends and determinants of energy innovation are essential
to set the basis for efficient
and effective climate and energy policies in the coming years. Yet, the
understanding of energy-related innovation dynamics and in particular of the
political economy of energy innovation, is still incomplete. This paper collects
and harmonizes data on energy innovation and environmental policy across
countries and empirically investigates the effects of environmental policy,
institutions, political orientation, and lobbying on the incentives to innovate
in the energy sector. Our results suggest that all these factors affect the
incentives to devote resources to energy R&D and to create new clean and
energy-efficient technologies. Specifically, we conclude that political economy
factors may act as barriers even in the presence of stringent environmental
policy. This implies that, in order to support the move towards a greener
economy, countries should combine environmental policy with a general
strengthening of institutional quality and consider the influence of government’s
political orientation on environmental policies as well as the implications of the
size of energy intensive sectors in the economy.
Keywords: Energy Innovation, Environmental Policy, Patents, Political Economy
Optimal
international
technology
cooperation for the 2degree target
Anselm Schultes∗,†, Marian Leimbach‡, Gunnar Luderer‡, Robert C. Pietzcker
Lavinia Baumstark‡, Nico Bauer‡, Elmar Kriegler‡, Ottmar Edenhofer‡†§
Research on low-carbon transformation pathways has focused on
carbon pricing as a means for climate stabilization. By contrast, technology
policies remain the more prominent national climate policy instruments:
renewable energy subsidies amount to more than US$100 billion per year
globally – more than twice the value of priced carbon. Given technology
spillovers and global learning effects it remains unclear how technology
policies can be coordinated internationally as part of climate stabilization
policy. Here we show an economic rationale to include an international
technology protocol alongside car- bon pricing. Cumulative low-carbon
subsidies of more than US$1 trillion from
2020 until the end of the century mainly support solar power and advanced
car technologies.
Keywords: climate change mitigation; technology subsidies; endogenous
growth; optimal policy instruments; learning-by-doing
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00‐12.50)
Parallel D: Power System Pathways‐Room
G04
Nuclear off or on? The impact of nuclear
power generation on electricity wholesale
prices in a small, open economy‐evidence of
nuclear power plants’ restart in Belgium
D. Devogelaer, Federal Planning Bureau, BAEE Board Member, [email protected],
+3225077438
In this paper, the restart of the three reactors is scrutinized. Publicly available
micro-data from a variety of sources is used to examine the impact of the restart
on different market outcomes. We observe that in the period following the
restart, wholesale prices plummet. This phenomenon is not restricted to the day
ahead market, it is also most obvious in the forward market. Next to this
empirical evidence, the optimisation tool Crystal Super Grid is used to estimate
the effect of the resumed availability of the three reactors on several indicators
characterising the Belgian and European power landscape.
Integration of VRE in the Nordic Energy
System
Kenneth Karlsson1*, Klaus Skytte1, Marie Münster1, Cristian Cabrera1, János
Hethey2, Anders Kofoed- Wiuff2, Nina Dupont2, Markus Wråke3, Tiina
Koljonen4, Kari Espegren5, Benjamin Smith6
1 DTU Management Engineering, 2 Ea Energy Analyses, 3 IVL Sweden, 4 VTT
Finland, 5 IFE Norway, 6 Nordic Energy Research
* Corresponding author: [email protected], Phone: +4521328733
This abstract focus on integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the
Nordic energy system and is based on findings in the chapter on Electricity
System Integration in the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP
2016) [1] report. In the NETP from 2013 [2] the Nordic carbon neutral scenario
was created. The definition is an 85% reduction in GHG emissions from all
sectors, which means that the power and heating sector will stop emitting CO2.
In NETP 2016 [1] we are continuing with this scenario, but digging deeper into
what it takes to reach it. The modelling framework are linked to the IEA's global
ETP model (2DS) where the Nordic countries are separate regions.
Day 1 Morning Sessions (12.00‐12.50)
Parallel E: Post Paris Pathways‐Room G05
On the way to a decarbonized world:
An analysis of the Paris climate agreement
with TIAM‐FR
Sandrine SELOSSE1, Seungwoo KANG2 and Nadia MAÏZI3
1 Sandrine SELOSSE, MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CMA ‐ Centre
for Applied Mathematics, France, +33 493 678 917, sandrine.selosse@mines‐
paristech.fr
2 Seungwoo KANG, MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CMA ‐ Centre for
Applied Mathematics, France, +33 497 157 093,
seungwoo.kang@mines‐paristech.fr
3 Nadia MAIZI, MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CMA ‐ Centre for
Applied Mathematics, France, +33 497 157 079,
Keywords: Global energy system, GHG mitigation targets, long‐term modeling,
TIAM‐FR, Paris climate Agreement
We analyze a combination of these scenarios to discuss decarbonized pathway
and the technological solutions to climate issues. Our analysis of the scenario
results then focuses on the effects on the level of GHG emissions and the carbon
abatement costs associated with the different GHG reduction targets for regions
(developed, fast developing or developing countries) with national focus.
Assessing the ambition level of INDCs target
of US, EU, China and India
CUI Xueqin1, WANG Ke1, ZOU Ji1
1. Renmin University of China, Zhongguancun Avenue, 100872, Beijing ,China
The “fair share” of the emission quota to regions and countries is one of the key
issues in designing international climate regime. A large number of literatures
has addressed this allocation issue. Höhne et al. [6] conducted a survey of over
40 studies with a wide range of effort sharing approaches which reflect a wide
spectrum of equity principles, such as equal emissions per
capita, cost-
effectiveness of mitigation, linking mitigation requirements with capability and
historic responsibility, etc. [7-12] Yet there few analyses on the trade-off
between ambition and fairness in the context of INDCs. Furthermore, most of
the studies are built on one or a few equity principles which cannot reflect a
comprehensive and balance point of view of both developing and developed
countries.
This study developed an integrated framework of equitable allocation of future
carbon budget based on a wide spectrum of equity principles, incorporating
dynamic measurement of these equity principles, then assessed the ambition
level of INDC of four largest emitters, namely USA, EU, China and India
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel A: Air Quality; Co‐Benefits‐Room G01
Assessing Health Externalities of Fossil Fuel
Power in Taiwan
Meng-Ying Lee1*, Meng-I Liao2, Pei-Hao Li1,3, Ming-Lung Hung1, Hwong-wen
Ma2
Taiwan is now facing challenges on local air quality control and debates
on potential local health impacts from fossil fuel energy development. A tool to
evaluate the local health impacts for energy development plans is crucial for
policy making. However, there is no integrated assessment tool for evaluating
potential external health cost of energy development scenarios with a
comprehensive range of pollutants and health impacts in Taiwan. Here we
developed a health impact assessment module integrated with the TIMES
energy technology model for energy deployment planning with comparative
evaluation of health impacts under different energy development scenarios for
Taiwan.
Key words: external cost; health impact; integrated modeling; fossil fuel power
plants; energy planning
Up in the Air: A framework for quantifying the
co‐impacts of energy sector decarbonisation
on outdoor air pollution
Melissa C. Lotta ([email protected]), Steve Pyeb ([email protected]), Birgit
Faisb ([email protected]), Paul Doddsa,b ([email protected]) aUCL
Keywords
Energy systems modelling, air pollution, decarbonisation, co-impacts, TIMES,
UKTM, policy assessment
Much of the existing analysis on the potential co-impacts of climate change
mitigation efforts on other air pollutants uses exogenous calculations (for
example, Jensen et al., 2013a and Williams, 2007). To date, no peer-reviewed
papers have been published on a methodology that endogenizes these air
pollution co-impacts into an energy systems optimisation model. Given that
these optimisation models are central to energy system policy assessment, the
addition of other air pollutants could provide valuable insights on the trade-offs
and synergies between climate and air quality interventions. This research added
an air pollution emissions database for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5),
nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), and non-methane
volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) to an existing bottom-up energy
systems optimisation
damage cost values.
model for the United Kingdom (UKTM), including
Is energy transition beneficial to sectors
with high employment content? An input‐
output analysis for France
Quentin Perrier, Philippe Quirion
Employment has been a key issue of the public debate on energy
transition in France. We develop an original methodology, based on
input-output analysis, to compare the employment content of each
economic sector to the national average, and break down the differences
into five components: final consumption import rates, intermediate
consumption import rates, taxes and subsidies, salary levels and labor
share in value added. We then estimate the employment content and
the greenhouse gases (GHG) content of all French economic sectors in
2010, in order to study intersectoral substitutions stemming from an
energy transition. Our results show that employment content variations
are explained, in order, by salary levels, final goods import rates, labor
share in value added, intermediate consumption import rates, and finally
taxes and subsidies. In addition, we find that sectors with high GHG
content and
low employment content (power
production, heavy
industries) are covered by the EU ETS, while those with both high
employment and
GHG
transport) are not.
content (agriculture, food processing
and
Concerns about employment impacts might be
part of the explanation.
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel B: Bioenergy Pathways‐Room G02
Bioenergy as a Potential to Avoid Early Phase
Out of Stranded Assets
V. Keller1*, B. Lyseng1, J. English1, K. Palmer-Wilson1, T.Niet1, 2, I. Moazzen1,
B. Robertson1, P. Wild1, A. Rowe1
1 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Institute for Integrated Energy
Systems
University of Victoria, Canada
2 British Columbia Institute of Technology
* Correspondence to V. Keller - 1 (250) 472 -4022
[email protected]
The current work examines the possibility of extending lifetime of stranded coal
fired power plants through retrofits to burn biomass. Logging residue is
explored as a fuel source for bioenergy plants due to its climate change
mitigation potential. Based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), bioenergy at
different fuel costs is compared to other new generators to better understand
economic conditions of biomass derived power. We further analyze changes in
prices of natural gas and market incentives such as carbon taxes and renewable
energy credits (RECs). We further study the province of Alberta (AB), Canada due
to its newly announced ‘Climate Leadership Program’ as an example of how
carbon taxes and RECs may help bioenergy penetration. Our results suggest that
while economic incentives such as carbon taxes and RECs may help the
penetration of bioenergy, it highly depends on natural gas prices.
Assessing the long‐term potential of
bioenergy in electricity, heat and grid
balancing
markets:
case
study
for
Switzerland
Evangelos Panos 1, Paul Scherrer Institute, e-Mail: [email protected]
Kannan
Ramachandran,
Paul
Scherrer
Institute,
e-Mail:
[email protected]
The Swiss Energy Strategy targets to greatly reduce per capita energy
consumption, to decrease the share of fossil energy and to replace nuclear
electricity generation by gains in efficiency and renewable energy sources. We
assess the role of domestic biomass in meeting these objectives and we
evaluate the prospects of biogenic technologies in electricity, heat and
ancillary services markets. To this end, we quantify several “what- if” scenarios
by applying a cost-optimisation bottom-up model, with detailed representation
of the above three markets, as well as biomass production and use pathways.
We find that the biogenic CHP technologies constitute a key technology for
increasing biomass penetration in stationary applications. The analysis shows
that their role increases when natural gas prices become high, or climate policies
are stringent. However, due to the limited domestic biomass resources, they
cannot be considered as game changers, but they mostly complement other
assets in heat, electricity and grid ancillary services markets such as heat
pumps, new renewable sources and hydropower.
Evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission
accounting methodology in energy system
decarbonisation pathways to 2050 using a
scenario approach: A case study of UK
Nagore Sabio1, Paul Dodds
UCL Energy Institute, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN, London, UK
Bioenergy, aside from being the oldest energy resource, poses several
advantages over other alternative energy vectors. First, it allows to make use of
existing energy infrastructure, its knowledge basis has similarities to fossil fuels
due to its organic carbon-based composition and provides additional exploitable
synergies with different energy vectors and technologies such as renewable
electricity, hydrogen and CCS. Nevertheless, biomass as a resource poses diverse
challenges. First, the diversity of the resource itself, ranging from forest wood to
wastes, makes it difficult to assess its availability (Slade et al.,2014), standardise
the value chain and in turn evaluate its environmental impact. Second its
international character and competing uses pose challenging political debates
and add complexity to the value chain. All these uncertainties and
complexities demand for more research and holistic approaches for bioenergy
impacts assessment.
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel C: Decarbonisation Pathways‐Room
G03
Regional Climates, Impacts, and strategic
SRM
Johannes Emmerling† and Massimo Tavoni‡
Although the potential of geoengineering to substitute or complement
mitiga- tion measures has been mostly assessed in the global context, its
impacts
on the strategic incentives in the context
negotiations are particularly
in- teresting.
This
of global climate
paper
aims
at
understanding the implications of geoengineering on the regional economic
incentives to participate in an international climate deal. To this end, we
study regional strategic incentives using a game-theoretic integrated
assessment model which features mitigation and adaptation strategies,
enriching it with a geoengineering strategy. Moreover, we integrate regionspecific impacts based on Burke et al. (2015) in an optimization framework
with regional climates to account for heterogeneity in temperature and
SRM impacts. We find differen- tiated regional or country incentives for
SRM, and substantial differences between globally optimal and unilaterally
non-cooperative SRM and mitigation strategies. We extend the analysis to
allow for adaptation which mitigates these differences.
Offshore CCS and Ocean Acidification: A
Global Long‐Term Probabilistic Cost‐Benefit
Analysis of Climate Change Mitigation
Reyer Gerlagh and Bob van der Zwaan
Although aspects of the technical and economic, as well as the legal, political
and public acceptance dimensions of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) still require
deeper understanding, CCS technology could, and perhaps needs to, play a
major role in curbing global CO2 emissions.
The Sleipner storage project is a good and iconic example, as at this site since
1996 CO2 has been safely stored in a geological formation deep under the North
Sea with quantities of about a million ton of CO2 per year. Likewise, in the
Barents Sea at the Snøhvit storage site CO2 has been successfully and securely
stored under the seabed since 2008. The findings of the ECO2 project
(“Sub-seabed CO2 Storage: Impact on Marine Ecosystems”, funded by the
European Commission) confirm that to date CO2 has been safely stored at these
two locations. One can thus conclude that contained storage of CO2 in the
underground appears possible (ECO2, 2015), but that claims on this subject
matter need to be made carefully: much more knowledge still needs to be
developed about the potential short- and long-term impacts of CO2 storage on
marine ecosystems.
Long‐term dynamics of technological change
in mitigation scenarios
Charlie Wilson
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK
This paper analyses long-term diffusion dynamics of electricity generation
technologies in a set of nine global energy-economy models. Technology
diffusion dynamics are expressed in time series of cumulative total capacity, and
are characterised in terms of form, duration and extent. Dynamics are analysed
at the level of six resource-based technology 'families', as well as across the
portfolio as a whole.
There are three generalisable findings from across a set of technologies, models,
and scenarios. First, the majority of long-term diffusion dynamics are described
by logistic growth. Around two in three time series of cumulative capacity are
logistic in form; of the remainder, around half are still exponential in 2100. This
is broadly consistent for both mitigation (2oC stabilisation) and baseline
scenarios.
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel D: Macro & Social Economic Impacts‐
Room G04
Economic Structural Change as an Option
for Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change
Alexander Golub and Michael Toman World Bank Development Research Group
Key words: Climate change, uncertainty, structural changes, real options
Improving the resilience of the economy in the face of uncertain climate change
damages
involves similar tradeoffs. In particular, making the economy more resilient
involves irreversible investments to scale up new technologies that are less
vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Building up such capacity provides
options for reducing losses of output and welfare if irreversible climate change
damages turn out to be more severe than expected. The benefit of having such
options needs to be balanced against the up-front cost of scaling up a climate
change-resilient technology that is potentially less productive than incumbent
technologies for production. One could wait for the cost of such a technology
to fall from further R&D. However, the advantage of postponing the initial scaleup cost has to be compared to the cost of not having earlier access to the new
technology in the event of more severe than expected climate change impacts.
The latter includes the welfare cost of diverting consumption to scaling- up the
new technology with diminished production possibilities, in the wake of the
climate change impacts.
The
Deployment
of
Low
Carbon
Technologies in Energy Intensive Sectors: A
GCE Analysis for Europe, China and India
Stefan Nabernegg1*, Birgit Bednar-Friedl1,2, Fabian Wagner3,4, Janusz Cofala3,
Thomas Schinko1,3, Yadira Mori-Clement1
1 Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria
2 Department of Economics, University of Graz, Austria
3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
4 Princeton University, Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, USA
Keywords:
energy intensive
industry,
decarbonization;
CGE
analysis;
international trade;
The potential for cost savings is found to be larger for China and India relative
to Europe because energy efficiency measures lead to larger fuel costs savings
and smaller investment costs. Across energy-intensive industries, the potential
for cost-effective efficiency measures is found to be largest in the iron and steel
sector. In Europe, output drops strongest for energy carriers, but also for pulp
and paper and chemicals, while output of iron and steel, electricity and nonmetallic mineral products increases. The deployment of low carbon technologies
improves the competitiveness of Indian and Chinese energy intensive industries
and increases imports to Europe which is only partly counterbalanced by trade
flows in non-energy intensive sectors. Due to considerable country differences,
a substantial gain - in terms of carbon prices and aggregate output - can be
realized when countries decarbonize jointly.
carbon leakage;
Day 1 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel E: Post Paris Pathways‐Room G05
Transparency and Comparability
of the
INDCs — Results from the WITCH model
Keigo Akimoto3, Joseph Aldy4, Lara Aleluia Reis∗1,2 , Carlo Carraro1,2,5 ,
William Pizer6, Fuminori Sano7, and MassimoTavoni1,2,8
1Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Italy
2Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
3Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, University of Tokyo
4Harvard University, Resources for the Future, and National
Bureau of Economic Research
5University of Venice
6Duke University, Resources for the Future, National Bureau of
Economic Research
7Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
8Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management and Economics
In this paper, we discuss the case for economic analysis of both pledges
and outcomes in order to produce a consistent set of metrics for
comparison. We use the WITCH integrated assessment model to produce
such metrics from the widely varying set of national pledges under the
Paris Agreement. Our results show a dif- ferentiated commitment across
countries where emission reductions and mitigation cost are generally
larger for wealthier countries
Equitable burden sharing:
Modelling
global
macroeconomic
impacts of the carbon constrained energy
system using etsap‐ tiam‐macro
James Glynn 1,2,*, Socrates Kypreos1,2,3, Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir1,2
University College Cork, IRELAND
3 c Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland
The analysis in this paper focuses on equitable burden sharing and
explores cumulative historical and future emissions pathways to assess potential
equitable and efficient mitigation costs. Least cost efficient emissions are
compared burden sharing rules, including contract and convergence equalisation
of emissions per capita (Bows and Anderson, 2008), equalisation of regional GDP
loss, compensation for energy cost increases in Least Developed Countries
(LDCs), full compensation for GDP loss in LDCs and two interpretations of the
“Brazil Proposal” of historical cumulative responsibility for temperature forcing
for 2C (UNFCCC, 1997). As with other studies we outline potentially equitable
regional cumulative emissions budgets (Raupach et al., 2014), emission peaking
dates and the distribution of energy system costs.
Achieving net‐zero emissions: reframing
national targets in the post‐ Paris Agreement
era
Steve Pyea, Francis G. N. Lia, Birgit Faisa, James Pricea
a UCL Energy Institute, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H
0NN, United Kingdom
This paper explores a large ensemble of net-zero pathways for the UK that
extend beyond 2050, to assess feasibility of different carbon budget levels at
the national scale, and whether the current policy framework is adequate. While
taking the UK example, the findings of this paper are pertinent to other
economies exploring long term decarbonisation objectives.
The paper finds that formulating domestic climate policy based on a 2050-only
target can lead to a gross underestimation of the challenge demanded by the
science, consequently setting a pathway for energy system decarbonisation with
insufficient ambition. Of strong relevance to the emerging policy discussion, it
also questions the prospects of achieving a 1.5°C stabilisation target, given the
radical system change over a very short time period. A 2°C budget level remains
extremely challenging, and requires negative emission technologies to reach netzero.
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel A: Residential Energy Efficiency‐Room
G01
The Adaptation of the US Residential Sector
to Global Warming
François Cohena, Matthieu Glachantb and Magnus Söderbergb
a: Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political
Science, London, United Kingdom. b: MINES ParisTech, Paris, France.
Good-quality homes will be necessary to protect households from unusually
elevated temperatures caused by climate change. This paper assesses the
economic cost of adaptation in dwellings through home improvements and
changes in energy consumption. Using household-level data from the U.S. and
the output of a general circulatory climate model, we estimate the adaptation
cost per household to be low: minus 3950 $ by 2080-2099 under the A2 scenario
of medium to high GHG emissions released in the atmosphere. This is because
the installation and more intensive use of additional air-conditioners are
partially offset by lower needs for space heating. These findings deliver an
optimistic message on the adaptive capacity of US houses.
The price of energy efficiency in the Spanish
housing market
Keywords: Energy, Housing, Energy Performance Certification, Spain, Hedonic
pricing
The housing sector is a substantial consumer of energy, and therefore a
focus for energy savings efforts. The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
(EPBD), introduced in 2002 and revised in 2010, is the key instrument to increase
the energy performance of buildings across the European Union. Following the
implementation of the EPBD into Spanish law, all properties offered for sale
or rented out in Spain are required to have an Energy Performance Certificate
(EPC). Given that this is a recently introduced regulation, unlike other European
housing markets, the Spanish one lacks market data on energy efficiency (EE)
labels and their impact on housing price. To overcome this gap, we determine
the EE ratings of a sample of
1,507 homes across Spain on the basis of information collected previously
through household surveys. This allowed us to answer the question of
whether or not, and to what extent, Spanish housing markets capitalise the
value of EE. We apply the hedonic−price technique and observe that more
energy efficient dwellings have a price−premium between 5.4% and 9.8%
compared to those with the same characteristics but lower EE level.
Residential energy efficiency and European
carbon policies. A CGE‐analysis with bottom‐
up
information
on
energy
efficiency
technologies
Brita Bye, Taran Fæhn and Orvika Rosnes
Keywords: Carbon policies, Energy efficiency policies, General Equilibrium
analysis, Rebound effects
While the introduction and reformation of climate policy instruments take place
rapidly in Europe, the knowledge on how the instruments interact lags
behind. In this paper we analyse different interpretations of the 2030 climate
policy goals for residential energy efficiency and how they interact with targets
for restricting CO2 emissions. We focus on Norway, whose climate and energy
policies are integrated with those of the EU. As we account for investment costs
of improving energy efficiency, we find substantial welfare costs of energy
efficiency policies, particularly when interacting with carbon pricing. Rebound
effects within households are small, but economy-wide indirect rebound is
significant
because
energy-intensive,
trade-exposed
(EITE)
industries
expand. As residential energy use consists mainly of carbon-free electricity, this
expansion of EITE- industries leads to increased total CO2 emissions.
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel B: Water Energy Land Nexus‐Room
G02
Modelling the competition for land: the
Food‐Energy nexus in Ireland
Alessandro Chiodi, University College Cork, Ireland
Trevor Donnellan, Teagasc, Ireland
James Breen, University College Dublin, Ireland
J.P. Deane, University College Cork, Ireland
Brian Ó Gallachóir, University College Cork, Ireland
This paper uses a multi-model approach (an energy systems model - Irish TIMES,
and an agricultural model – FAPRI-Ireland) to review and compare different
perspectives on agriculture and energy in Ireland, and develops a methodology
to assess via scenario analysis integrated perspectives on the implications for
land-use competition in delivering food security and climate mitigation for
Ireland. The scenarios explore how, under different GHG mitigation trajectories
for 2050, energy crops compete with agri-food sectors. The results i) presents
perspectives and outlooks of both agricultural and energy systems, ii) evaluates
the role of bioenergy commodities; iii) quantifies the impacts in terms of
domestic land usage; iv) investigates implications for limited land-use
availability; v) discusses the economic impacts of different mitigation future
Water
Balance
Effects
of
Domestic
Agricultural Land Use and Management
Shifts Due to U.S. Biofuel Policies
Jacob Teter1*, Sonia Yeh1,2, Madhu Khanna3, Xiaoguang Chen4, Göran
Berndes2
1 Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis. Davis, CA
95616 et al
Biofuels policies induce land use changes, including cropland expansion and crop
switching, and altered water and soil management practices. We combine
an agricultural-energy economic model with a high-resolution crop-water
modeling for U.S. major agricultural crops and potential cellulosic feedstocks to
model the impacts on water balances in three alternative policy scenarios
through 2030: a counterfactual ‘no biofuels policy’, a volumetric mandate (RFS),
and a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) incentivizing fuels based on their carbon
intensities, resulting in less corn ethanol and greater proportions of biofuels
from energy crops. We found RFS policy increases corn cultivation, though
certain regions of the East, Midwest, and Corn Belt see net reductions in
irrigation, while other regions see net increases in the Northern plains,
Oklahoma, and North Dakota as crop production shifts.
Crop-water modeling, Renewable Fuels Standard, National Low Carbon Fuel
Standard, water use LCA, water footprinting, land use change
SUSTAINABLE FOREST‐BASED BIOENERGY
IN EURASIA
F. KRAXNER1*, S. LEDUC1, S. FUSS2,1, D. SCHEPASCHENKO1,3, A. SHVIDENKO1,4
Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM), International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
This study analyses the Russian forest biomass-based bioenergy sector. It is
shown that presently – although given abundant
resources – the share of heat and electricity from biomass is very minor. With
the help of 2 IIASA models, future green-field bioenergy plants are identified in
a geographically explicit way. Results indicate that by using only 3.3% of the total
wood removals, twice as much heat and electricity than presently available from
biomass could be generated. A multitude of co- benefits can be quantified for
the socio-economic sector such as green jobs linked to bioenergy. The
sustainable sourcing of woody biomass for bioenergy is possible as shown with
the help of an online crowdsourcing tool for forest certification.
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel C: Decarbonisation Pathways‐Room
G03
Carbon counterfactuals – Proximity‐based
synthetic
controls
for
CO2
emission
trajectories
Alexander Radebach*,†,‡
Jan Christoph Steckel†,‡,§
César A. Hidalgo#
In the context of climate change mitigation per capita CO2 emission levels are
a key characteristic when comparing different countries’ contributions to
global emissions. The countries frequently formulate reduction targets in
terms of intertemporal changes, i.e., the reduction between some base year and
another point in time. Clearly, this metric is insufficient when comparing
different countries. In order to obtain a reliable baseline for the comparison of
a country’s CO2 path this paper applies the recently proposed approach of
synthetic comparatives. From structural similarity based on high-resolution
export data we calculate proximities that allow selecting appropriate control
groups. The members of this group then serve as regressors for the
construction of a linear combination which mimics the historically observed
CO 2 per capita path within some training period. Following that time window
the synthetic comparative serves as a counterfactual to the historical trajectory.
† Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,
Torgauer Straße 12-15, 10829 Berlin, Germany
‡ Technical University of Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, Germany
§ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473
Potsdam,
Pathways to deep decarbonization in Italy
Maria Gaeta1, Isabella Alloisio2, Enrica De Cian,2 Chiara Martini3, Ramiro
Parrado2, Maria Cristina
Tommasino1, Maria Rosa Virdis1.
This paper contributes to the climate-policy discussion by focusing on the
difficult challenges of dramatically reducing fossil fuel related emissions. Three
alternative pathways to achieve deep decarbonization are examined, reducing
Italian CO2 emissions by at least 40% in 2030 and 80% in 2050, compared to
1990, consistently with the IPCC goal of limiting the increase in global surface
temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (°C). Italy has some specific features in its
natural resource endowments, and its geographic, social, and economic factors.
The country has historically experienced a higher share of gas and oil products,
and a lower share of coal, in the energy mix compared to average EU levels.
There are important hydro resources almost fully exploited, few areas with
potential for wind energy, and lots of sunshine in the South. Italy heavily relies
on imported fuels: about 80% of Italy’s energy used is imported.
Integrated Assessment of the Prospects
for Hydrogen Technology through 2100
using a Regionally Disaggregated DNE21
Seiya Endo*a, Yasumasa Fujiia, Ryoichi Komiyamab
aDepartment of nuclear engineering and management, The University of Tokyo,
Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
bResilience Engineering Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1,
Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
* E-mail address: [email protected]
This paper evaluates an economic viability of hydrogen technology in global
energy market through 2100 employing a regionally disaggregated Dynamic
New Earth 21 model, called DNE21. Hydrogen technology is gathering attention
as one of effective countermeasures for tackling climate change issues.
Hydrogen energy, however, is just a secondary energy carrier, and its
effectiveness in energy system should be evaluated considering the whole
lifecycle chain of hydrogen production, transportation and consumption.
Therefore, energy modelling analysis, covering the whole stage of energy
development and usage, potentially provides a useful information for the
evaluation of the role of hydrogen energy.
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel D: Marco and Social Impacts‐Room
G04
Long‐term macroeconomic impact of US
unconventional Oil and Gas production: a
general equilibrium perspective.
Florian LEBLANC† [email protected]
This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of long-term shale gas and
light tight oil production in the United States.
We endogenize those
resources produc- tion within a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
framework which technical inertias and short-term desiquilibrium of a
second best world.
Our scenarios find moderate and bounded GDP
increases despite increasing unconventional resources production. Lower
energy prices and energy imports needs creates long-term lock- ins which
later on slow down GDP growth differential.
In fact, an early higher
refined oil dependency on the demand side face later on increased tensions
on oil markets due to Middle East resource depletion.
We study the
tradeoff between long-term competitiveness and the real exchange rate
appreciation caused by re- source production, and find little evidence of a
positive effect on investment in the production of energy
tradables goods.
Keywords
:
Shale
Computable general equilibrium model
resources,
intensive
Competitiveness,
Intergenerational discounting with
intergenerational inequality in consumption
and the environment
It is now established that the consumption discount rate is determined by the
growth of consumption multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility, but the
ever-increasing distributive concerns are rarely reflected in the liter- ature.
Assuming a social welfare function with inequality aversion, we con- sider a
consumption discount rate that can be decomposed into the growth effect and
the intragenerational distribution effect. The framework is then extended to
include population change; and inequality in the environment
Keywords: Discounting; income distribution; intragenerational equity; cli- mate
change
Day 1 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel E: Sustainable Development‐Room
G05
Who
benefits
from
infrastructure
development through carbon pricing? ‐
Insights from Nigeria
Ira Dorbanda, Michael Jakoba,b and Jan Christoph Steckela,b,c
a Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,
Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin, Germany
b Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
c Department Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin,
Key Words: Carbon Pricing; Fossil Fuel Subsidies; Infrastructure investments;
Household data; Nigeria
The distribution of tax payments as well as of infrastructure access gaps
across income groups is estimated by combining an environmentally-extended
input-output model with household survey data. In contrast to most developed
country studies, we find that in Nigeria a carbon tax or reform of subsides would
be progressive. Furthermore, access gaps impair primarily rural, lower income
households. Hence, reforming the existing subsidy regime and / or levying
carbon taxes in Nigeria do not only hold positive environmental effects;
particularly when combined with targeted revenue recycling to close
infrastructure access gaps both measures can have pro-poor distributional
effects.
Compatibility of the se4all energy efficiency
objective with renewable energy, energy
access, and climate mitigation targets
Jay Gregg1, Olexandr Balyk1, Ola Solér1, Simone La Greca1, Cristian Hernán
Cabrera Pérez1, Tom Kober2
1Systems Analysis, Technical niversity of Denmark
2Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
The objectives of the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL), a United Nations (UN)
global initiative, are to achieve, by 2030: 1) universal access to modern energy
services; 2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency;
and 3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
(United Nations, 2011; SE4ALL, 2013a). The purpose of this study is to determine
to what extent the energy efficiency objective supports the other two
objectives, and to what extent the SE4ALL objectives support the climate target
of limiting the global mean temperature increase to 2° C over pre-industrial
times. To accomplish this, pathways are constructed for each objective, which
then form the basis for a scenario analysis using the Energy Technology System
Analysis Program TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP-TIAM).
Climate resilience and reserves in the
developing world
Mark Howells
-
Raffaello Cervigni
Kenneth Strzepek
USA Jim Nuemann
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
-
-
World Bank, Washington, USA
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
-
Industrial Economics, Cambridge, USA
An emerging body of work is constructing new combinations of applied analysis
to understand and inform integrated development under a changing climate. A
particular focus has been how, under a changing climate, to efficiently allocate
land, energy, water and other resource to meet demands for crops, water- and
energy-services. To ensure secure affordable supplies, it is finding that there is
need for market harmonization; policy coherence; and new functional financial
instruments. For the analytical community, the challenge is to further develop
appropriately integrated planning tools. For the decision maker, in a developing
country context the challenge is to develop tools that transcend or strengthen
weak markets, policy and finance. And, do so in a tractable and implementable
manner.
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel A: Modelling Uncertainty‐Room G01
New methodological approach for planning
cities sustainable and resilient energy futures
– the case of the InSMART project
De Miglio R.a, Chiodi A.a, Simoes S.b, Long G.c, Pollard M.d, Gouveia J.P.b,
Gargiulo M.a, Giannakidis G.e
a E4SMA S.r.l., Turin, Italy
b CENSE, Faculdade Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa,
c University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
d Systra Consultancy, United Kingdom
e Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving (CRES), Athens, Greece
This paper presents an innovative city planning approach developed within the
EU FP7 project InSMART. It brings together four European municipalities – Evora
(Portugal), Nottingham (UK), Trikala (Greece) and Cesena (Italy) –, academics and
technical consultants in order to establish a common methodology for enhancing
sustainable planning for both the current and future city needs through an
integrative and multidisciplinary approach. The methodology develops and
employs a number of tools to assess the optimum mix of medium term measures
(up to 2030) for a sustainable energy future, addressing the efficiency of energy
flows across various city sectors with regards to economic, environmental and
social criteria and paving the way towards actual implementation of priority
actions. This paper presents the key concepts around this methodology and
some selected results of the project (still ongoing).
The Use of Bottom‐up Optimisation Models
in Different Modes for Analysing the
Transition to Sustainable Urban Areas
Arne Lind1, Kari Espegren1
1Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) P.O. Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway
Phone (+47) 92281635, Fax (+47) 63812905
E-mail: [email protected]
Keywords:
Urban en e rg y
system;
energy
system
model;
scenario
analysis;renewable energy; CO2-emissions
In 2014, 54 per cent of the world’s population were living in urban areas.
Globally, urbanisation is taking place rapidly, and sustainable development
in urban settlements is therefore a challenge with increasing importance since
urbanisation can cause problems such as transport congestion, lack of sufficient
housing, and environmental degradation. The purpose of this paper is to
demonstrate how bottom-up optimisation models (like e.g. TIMES) can be used
to analyse how urban areas can develop sustainable energy systems for the
future.
From
Shared
Socio‐Economic
Baseline
Assumptions to CO2 Fossil Fuels Emissions
Giacomo Marangoni et al.
1 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euro-Mediterrano sui
Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy;
The goal of this analysis is to understand how the output of models, and in turn
the resulting policy implications, depend on baseline assumptions, identifying
the most influential uncertain sets of inputs and their interactions for different
IAMs. Such research has several potential benefits for both modellers and
policy makers: to assist in focusing modelling efforts on those inputs whose
uncertainty counts the most, to direct decision making attention to the main
drivers of the results, and to better understand whether only a subset of
assumptions in the narratives like the SSPs would be enough to cover a similar
uncertainty space. This parsimonious attitude towards inputs and assumptions
becomes more and more desirable, as uncertainty can be thoroughly treated
only up to few dimensions and IAMs become more advanced and
computationally burdensome (i.e. curse of dimensionality).
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel B: Environmental Taxes, Trade and
Markets‐Room G02
Blending Under Uncertainty: Insights from
the Biofuels Industry
Hamed Ghoddusi1, School of Business, Stevens Institute of Technology,
1
Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07093, USA
Keywords: Biofuels Mandates, Valuation, Real Options, Strangle Option
The firm value of a representative ethanol producer that benefits from both low
and high gasoline prices is modeled. Ethanol producers make a modest
competitive profit in the mandate-induced region of production. A lower price
of gasoline increases the demand for blend ethanol and consequently the profit
of ethanol producers. However, when gasoline becomes more costly than
ethanol the capacity constraints of the biofuels sector bind and ethanol
producers gain a large quasi-monopoly margin. This is an interesting example of
an energy market with two commodities being complement up to a point and
substitute after that. We postulate the value of an ethanol producer as a strangle
option consisting of two real options: option to substitute gasoline at the times
of expensive crude oil and option to expand supply of blend at times of cheap
gasoline. Through a dynamic model we show that higher volatilities of crude oil
and ethanol costs increase biofuels firms’ value. We also find non-monotonic
relationships between the value of ethanol plant and several underlying
variables including the level of gasoline price. We estimate that the option value
provided by 10% blend mandates is around $130,000,000 for a representative
ethanol unit. Our results offer a novel view of oil and feedstock price risks
different than common belief that considers those risks as a negative factor for
the biofuels sector.
Interaction between CO2 emissions trading
and renewable energy subsidies under
uncertainty: feed‐in‐tariffs as a safety net
against over allocation
Keywords: Emission trading; renewable energy; feed-in-tariff; policy interaction;
uncertainty
We study the interaction between a CO2 emissions trading system (ETS) and
renewable energy subsidies under uncertainty on electricity demand and on
energy costs. We first provide evidence that uncertainty has generated
overallocation (defined as an emission cap above business-as-usual emissions)
during at least a part of the history of most ETS in the world. We then develop
an analytical model and a numerical model applied to the European Union’s
electricity market, in which renewable energy subsidies are justified only by
CO2 abatement. When uncertainty is low, renewable energy subsidies are not
justified, but when it is large enough, these subsidies increase expected welfare
because they provide CO2 abatement even in case of overallocation. The source
of uncertainty matters to compare the various types of renewable energy
subsidies. Under uncertainty on electricity demand, on renewable energy cost
or on gas price, a feed-in-tariff brings a higher expected welfare than a feed-inpremium because it provides a higher subsidy when it is actually needed i.e.
when the electricity price is low. Under uncertainty on coal price, the opposite
result prevails.
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel C: Decarbonisation pathways‐ G03
U.S. Emissions and Technology Pathways
toward 2050 Goals: The Role of Temporal
Flexibility
John E. Bistlinea and Francisco de la Chesnaye
Electric Power Research Institute
The United States recently reaffirmed its goal through the Paris Agreement to
reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions to 26–28 percent below 2005
levels in 2025, and the Obama Administration’s Climate Action Plan previously
proposed an 80 percent target by 2050. This paper investigates the role of
temporal flexibility from emissions banking provisions under an economy-wide
cap-and-trade policy, which provides insight into the consistency between nearand long-term goals. Model results using US- REGEN indicate that, when
temporal flexibility is absent, significant and sustained transformations must
occur across many sectors. In particular, electrification and energy efficiency are
key elements of economy-wide reductions, as electricity may provide over half
of final energy by 2050. We show how current literature on meeting the 80%
target almost exclusively assumes banking, which may bias policy
recommendations and have important consequences for near-term R&D
prioritization and model development.
Keywords: Climate policy; temporal flexibility; cap-and-trade; market-based
environmental policy; technology; energy-economic modeling
IMPACTS OF FOSSIL FUELS EXTRACTION
COSTS AND CARBON PRICING ON ENERGY
EFFICIENCY POLICIES
Nadia Maïzi, Alice Didelot, Vincent Mazauric, Edi Assoumou and Sandrine
Selosse
We propose to explore energy efficiency potential in relation with different
fossil fuels extraction costs schemes crossed with carbon pricing scenario built
under various global carbon taxes. This sensitivity analysis relies on prospective
studies conducted with the technical-and-economic, bottom- up optimization
model TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model developed at the Center
for Applied Mathematics MINES ParisTech), where energy efficiency is
endogenized: thus, the system reaches the optimal efficiency level according
to cost constraints. This representation has been implemented and calibrated
for the industrial, residential and tertiary sectors to enable a better
understanding of the balance between energy efficiency potential when fossil
fuels extraction costs and carbon pricing patterns are considered.
The role of direct air capture in
achieving the Paris climate targets
Adriana Marcucci1∗, Socrates Kypreos2 , Evangelos Panos2
1 ETH Zurich, Switzerland
2 Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
Reducing carbon emissions requires the
development of different and
complementary mitigation technologies including less emitting alternatives,
such as renewable-based or more efficient technolo- gies, and carbon-removal
options. Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods include bio- logical
and chemical removal. Biological carbon removal covers a broad range of
alternatives based on land use management, afforestation and bio-energy
combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Chemical removal of CO2
includes processes such as direct carbon dioxide capture from the ambient air
(DAC) or the reaction of minerals with CO2 to form carbonates (The Royal
Society, 2009). The role in the future energy system of BECCS (Fuss et al., 2014;
Klein et al., 2014; Kriegler et al., 2013; Popp et al., 2011; van Vuuren et al., 2013)
and that of afforestation (Canadell & Raupach, 2008; Humpe- noeder et al.,
2014; IPCC, 2007; Obersteiner et al., 2006) have been largely analyzed in the
literature since they are arguably considered the most attractive options to
realize negative carbon emissions. DAC, however, could be considered a
complementary backstop technology to CCS from fossil fuels combustion and
BECCS to achieve the stringent 2◦ C target since it can capture the carbon
produced by small distributed sources such as residential heating and cooling
and transportation.
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel D: Power System Pathways‐ G04
Using resource based slicing to capture the
intermittency of variable renewables
Mariliis Lehtveer, Niclas Mattsson, Fredrik Hedenus, Martin Soini
Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96,
Gothenburg, Sweden
*Corresponding author: [email protected], +46 317 723 129
Keywords: Variability, renewable energy sources, energy system model, time
slices
As the share of variable renewables – wind and solar PV – is expected to grow
significantly in coming decades, it has become increasingly important to account
for their intermittency in large scale energy models that are used to explore long
term energy futures. In this paper we propose and evaluate one method for
doing so, namely, resource based slicing. In addition we implement storage based
on possible transitions between slices which allows us to explore new dynamics
between intermittent generation and electricity storage in large scale models.
Our preliminary results show that this approach manages to capture many
aspects introduced by variable renewables such as need for flexible generation
capacity and curtailment at high penetration levels. We show that adding
electricity storage to the system will favour solar power but has only a minor
effect on wind and nuclear power.
Hydropower Externalities:
A Meta‐
Analysis
Matteo Mattmann1,2*, Ivana Logar1, Roy Brouwer3,1
1Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600
Dübendorf, Switzerland
2Department of Environmental Economics, Institute of Environmental Studies,
VU University Amsterdam,
The Netherlands
3The Water Institute, Department of Economics, University of Waterloo,
Canada
Keywords Hydropower, renewable energy, externalities, non-market valuation,
meta-regression, sensitivity to scope
This paper presents a meta-analysis of existing research related to the
economic valuation of the external
effects of hydropower. A database
consisting of 81 observations derived from 29 studies valuing the non-
market
impacts of hydropower electricity generation is constructed with the main aim
to quantify and ex-
plain the economic values for positive and negative
hydropower externalities. Different meta-regression
model specifications
are used to test the robustness of significant determinants of non-market
values,
including different types of hydropower impacts. The explanatory
and predictive power of the estimated
models is relatively high. Whilst
controlling for sample and study characteristics, we find significant evidence
for public aversion towards deteriorations of landscape, vegetation and wildlife
caused by hydro-projects
Day 2 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel
E:
Pathways‐ G05
Sustainable
Development
Cost and returns of renewable energy in Sub‐
Saharan Africa. A comparison of Kenya and
Ghana
Ana Pueyo, Simon Bawakyillenuo and Helen Osiolo
Keywords: Renewable energy, Africa, cost, finance
The allocation of finance for the provision of green electricity in Sub‐Saharan
Africa should be informed by two questions: which generation technologies are
financially viable? and which generation technologies are affordable? Our
analysis addresses these for Kenya and Ghana by calculating LCOE and IRR for a
portfolio of RE technologies under different scenarios. Our results show better
fundamentals in Kenya for the successful implementation of renewable energy
projects. Wind and geothermal technology offer low cost electricity and healthy
returns to investment. Solar PV could be competitive with expensive diesel
generation but its current price does not allow for
cost recovery. Kenyan Feed‐in Tariffs protect investors against currency
devaluation and the off‐ taker is creditworthy. Ghana’s renewable electricity
(except hydro) is expensive in comparison and offers lower returns. This is mainly
due to high financing costs and lower quality RE resources. Additionally, RE
investors in Ghana are not protected against further currency devaluation by the
existing FiT scheme and there are concerns about the creditworthiness of the
off‐taker. Policymakers should target these key constraints to affordability and
profitability to support a higher penetration of renewables in the country.
An
Indicative
Analysis
of
Investment
Opportunities in the African Electricity Supply
Sector‐ Using TEMBA (The Electricity Model
Base for Africa)
Constantinos Taliotis1, Abhishek Shivakumar1, Eunice Ramos1, Mark Howells1,
Dimitris Mentis1, Vignesh Sridharan1, Oliver Broad1, Linus Mofor2
1KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Energy Technology, Division
of Energy Systems Brinellvagen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Keywords: OSeMOSYS; African electricity supply; electricity trade; costoptimization; TEMBA.
This paper examines indicative scenarios of power plant investments based on
potential for electricity trade and argues that trade can impact on the most
economical mix of energy sources and generation sites. OSeMOSYS, a costoptimization tool used for long-term energy planning, is used to develop least
cost supply system configurations. The electricity supply systems of forty-seven
countries are modelled individually and linked together via trade links to form
TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa). A scenario comparison of the
generation mix evolution in each country up to 2040 shows that an enhanced
grid network can alter Africa’s overall generation mix and result in a reduced
electricity generation cost.
A climate resilient Africa ‐ Calculating the
cost of adaptation to climate change for the
African Countries
Vignesh Sridharana*, Oliver Broada, Mark Howellsa, Abhishek Shivakumara,
Constantinos Taliotisa
aKTH – Royal Institute of Technology, division of Energy Systems Analysis Office
K513, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden Tel: +46 76 40 99 660
The paper analyses the different African Power pools and attempts to calculate
the cost of adaptation to climate change, over a set of dry and wet climate
futures, for each of the 47 African mainland countries. The model was developed
on TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa) [2] which was created using the
Open Source energy Modelling System; OSeMOSYS [3]. Owing to its openly
available code, the costraint equations can be easily modified to introduce new
parameters. This was required in this work to implement new constraints like
implementing reserve margin targets for individual countries in the model.
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel A: Modelling Uncertainty‐Room G01
An Alternate Methodology to Sensitivity
Testing using Stochastic Modelling and the
South African TIMES Model
Bryce McCall, Bruno Merven, Alison Hughes, Fadiel Ahjum, Tara Caetano
In this paper, we investigate the use of the stochastic optimisation
feature of TIMES to analyse uncertainty in a key policy parameter of
SATIM, namely the “carbon space” available to South Africa to 2050 to
meet global climate mitigation objectives.
Sensitivity
of
Modeling
Results
to
Technological and Regional Details: The Case
of Italy’s Carbon Mitigation Policy
Gabriele Standardi, Yiyong Cai and Sonia Yeh
Taking Italy as an example, we find that the estimation for carbon price and
economic cost of a de-carbonization pathway by a model with technological and
regional details can be lower than a model without such details by up to 40%.
Additionally, the effect of representing regional details appears to be several
times more important than the effect of representing the details of electricity
technology in both the estimated carbon prices and the estimated impacts on
electricity production. Our results for Italy highlight the importance of modeling
uncertainties of these two key assumptions, which should be appropriately
acknowledged when applying CGE models for policy impact assessment. Our
conclusions can be generalized to different countries and policy scenarios not
in terms of magnitudes of results but in terms of economic explanation. In
particular, intra- national trade and the sub-national sectoral/technological
specialization are important variables to understand the economic dynamics
behind these outcomes.
Adapting
long‐lived
infrastructure
to
uncertain and transient change
Shall infrastructure assets become more robust and long-lived if un- favorable
exogeneous conditions become more uncertain, and if the assets’ design is
irreversible
for their
whole life time?
Such problems are frequently
encountered, for example in infrastructure adaptation to climate change, or
electricity grid expansion with uncertain future feed-in of renewables. We
analyze this decision problem with a two- stage structure. While the first stage
is a standard optimization, the second stage is a stopping problem of stochastic
dynamic control. We derive the value function and the comparative statics
for two design options:
asset size and robustness. We determine the
expected life- time under the condition of an optimal but irreversible design.
When size can be adapted, we find a decreasing expected optimized life-time
for more rapidly changing conditions. This only holds for robustness if the
original life-time is not too large. Results are ambiguous for rising uncertainty.
For robustness, originally shorter-lived assets’ life-time is expanded. For size,
the relation between the certain drift rate and the discount rate matters. There
can be a case for making infrastructure less robust in the light of uncertain and
transient change.
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel B: Environmental Taxes, Markets and
Trade‐ G02
Cost‐Efficiency of the EU Emissions Trading
Scheme (EU ETS): An Ex‐Post Analysis
Johanna Cludius1,3, Vicki Duscha2*, Nele Friedrichsen2, Katja Schumacher1
1
Oeko-Institut (Schicklerstr. 5-7, DE-10179 Berlin, Tel. +49 30 405085-380,
2
Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovations Research (Breslauer Straße 4,
DE-76139 Karlsruhe, Tel. +49 721 6809-0, [email protected],
3
Zurich University of Applied Sciences
This paper aims at shedding light on the question whether and to what extent in
practice the EU ETS has proven to be more cost-efficient than alternative
policies. The analysis presents an ex-post evaluation of the cost-efficiency of the
EU ETS in its second trading period. It reveals average cost savings under the EU
ETS in the base scenario of about 865 million Euro p.a., an efficiency gain of 47%
compared to the alternative policy scenario without trade. Sensitivity scenarios
which vary the assumptions on temporal, sectoral and regional disaggregation
indicate somewhat lower efficiency gains ranging from 11-39% depending on
the assumptions taken. Lower efficiency gains occur in cases with higher sectoral
and regional aggregation emphasising the importance of intra- industry and
inter-country trade. The analysis further reveals that deriving robust results on
the exact cost savings faces a trade-off between sectoral coverage (breadth) and
level of detail (depth). Furthermore, assumptions regarding the abatement
requirements under the alternative policy play a key role, along with the choice
of marginal abatement cost curves.
Environmental Policies that Maximise Social
Welfare: The Role of Intergenerational
Inequality
Frédéric Gonand∗ and Pierre-André Jouvet
Key words: Carbon emissions - General equilibrium - Overlapping generations Renewable energies - Carbon tax - Intergenerational redistribution - Social
choice.
Carbon emissions can be curbed down through a public intervention — for
instance, a public decision that increases directly the fraction of renewables in
the energy mix, or the imple- mentation of a carbon tax. This article relies on a
computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations in order to
determine the optimal mix of instruments for different types of social
preferences. This model is parameterised on German data. Results suggest that
a social planner that takes account of the welfare of future generations and is
highly averse to intergenerational inequal- ity chooses to implement a relatively
moderate, fully recycled carbon tax and to increase in parallel the fraction of
renewables in the energy mix — even if the recycled tax favors growth and
future generations. Only authorities with utilitarist preferences implement a
low-carbon transition relying mostly on a fully recycled carbon tax. Overall, our
article suggests that intergenerational redistributive effects can significantly
influence the social choice as concerns environmental policies and the optimal
mix of instruments.
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel C: Decarbonisation pathways‐ G03
CO2
Mitigation
for
Climate
Risk
Management
Geoffrey Blanford, EPRI Delavane Diaz, EPRI Richard Richels, EPRI Steven Rose,
EPRI
Thomas Rutherford, University of Wisconsin
Climate policy is fundamentally about managing risk. Most prominently, there is
uncertainty about the sensitivity of the climate response to increased
greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and about the impacts to society of a
changing climate and our willingness to pay to avoid them. To understand the
implications of these climate risks for mitigation decisions, a stochastic costbenefit modeling framework is necessary. In this study, we use a new stochasticprogramming version of the MERGE integrated assessment model (IAM) to
explore optimal hedging paths under uncertainty about both climate sensitivity
and the damage function that is gradually resolved over time. Our results
illustrate how near-term mitigation strategy could effectively hedge against a
potential risk characterization. More generally, our modeling framework
provides a tool for communicating the implications of alternative assumptions
about long-term climate risks for policy decisions today.
Modelling investment in upstream gas and
implications for future supply curves under
different demand scenarios
Daniel J G Crowa,*, Sara Giarolaa and Adam Hawkesb
a Earth Science & Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London
SW7 2AZ, UK
b Chemical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ,
UK *[email protected]
Energy systems models have so far played a crucial role in investigating the likely
economic impact of decarbonisation. As part of Integrated assessment models,
they can be combined with modules that calculate the climate impact of GHG
emissions to generate a complete map of possible transition scenarios, each of
which is typically characterised by the trade-off between climate impact and
cost (G Metcalf, 2015) (McJeon et al., 2014). Most energy systems models select
a cost minimising mixture of energy commodities and energy flows (including all
the
associated
extraction,
transformation,
distribution
and
end-use
technologies) which satisfy both future projected demand for energy services
(such as heating, lighting and transport) and a GHG emissions or temperature
change budget (Napp, 2015). Such models are extremely influential in
policymaking and business alike (the latter being affected by the former).
A multi‐model method to analyse the
economics of power‐to‐gas for renewable
integration
Paul E Dodds1*, Warren Hicks2, Marta Moreno-Benito3, Nagore Sabio1, Wei
Sun4
1 UCL Energy Institute, University College London
2 School of Construction Management & Engineering, University of Reading
3 Centre for Process Systems Engineering, University College London
4 School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh
We have identified that a market for hydrogen in transport is robust to
uncertainties in renewable penetration and technology availability, using the
UKTM energy system model. We have used the SHIPMod spatial infrastructure
planning model to show that building a pipeline network could be the cheapest
long-term option to meet hydrogen demands for road transport across the UK.
Using a bespoke electricity dispatch/network model, we have found that
hydrogen from excess electricity generation is unlikely to exceed transport
hydrogen demand even at very high levels of renewable penetration in 2050.
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel D: Decarbonisation pathways‐ G04
The role of capital costs for decarbonizing
the power sector
Lion Hirth1,2 and Jan Christoph Steckel1,3,4,*
1 Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change,
Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin, Germany
2 neon neue energieökonomik gmbh (neon), Germany
3 Technische Universität Berlin, Str. d. 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
4 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg, 14473
Potsdam, Germany
The costs structure of different power generating technologies is very different
between fossil fuel based technologies and low carbon alternatives, with the
latter generally being more capital intensive. In this paper we evaluate how this
observation affects the transformation of the energy system under climate policy
in a partial equilibrium model of the wholesale electricity market with a focus
on the supply side. We find that there is a severe trade-off between capital costs
and carbon prices. If capital costs are high, i.e. 10% or higher, the diffusion of
renewable energy technologies like wind or solar is significantly impeded while
fossil fuel based technologies like coal stay in the market. Our results hold
implications for climate change policy. Particularly in developing and emerging
countries where capital costs are often found to be high, carbon pricing would
need to be combined with policies to bring down capital costs in order to induce
a transformation to low-carbon energy based power systems.
Electricity grid and storage: complements or
substitutes?
Paul Neetzow a, b, ∗ and Anna Pechan a
a Department of Economics, Carl von Ossietzky University
Oldenburg, Germany
b Division of Resource Economics, Humboldt University of
Berlin, Germany
A broad transition to renewable energies implies increasing chal- lenges
for both, the spatial and temporal distribution of power. At the same
time,
an understanding of the
interdependence of power system
components is crucial to achieve a cost efficient deployment. Yet, existing
studies concerned with the relation of storage and power transmission
deployment yield contradictory results on how these in- fluence each other.
To resolve this ambiguity, we separately introduce storage and transmission
in a coherent analytic modeling framework and solve the dispatch as well
as capacity decisions of a social planner. The results indicate that the main
determinants of the transmission- storage relation are the occurrence of
transmission constraints at peak or off-peak times and the location of the
storage at the production or load site.
Evaluating the capacity of Integrated
Assessment Models to represent system
integration challenges of wind and solar
power
Robert C. Pietzcker1*, Falko Ueckerdt1, Samuel Carrara2, Harmen Sytze de
Boer3, Jacques Després4, Shinichiro Fujimori5, Nils Johnson6, Alban Kitous,
Yvonne Scholz7, Patrick Sullivan8, Gunnar Luderer1
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Et al
In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate these modeling
improvements. For a comprehensive and transparent qualitative evaluation,
we first develop a framework of stylized facts about power sector dynamics
and VRE integration. We then apply this framework to the newly‐developed
modeling approaches to derive a detailed map of strengths and limitations of
the different approaches. For the quantitative evaluation, we compare the IAMs
to the detailed hourly‐ resolution power sector model REMIX. We find that the
new modeling approaches manage to represent a large number of stylized facts
of the power sector, and the numerical results are in reasonable agreement
with those derived from the detailed power sector model. Updating the
power sector representation and the cost and resources of wind and solar
reduced the spread between different models and substantially increased wind
and solar shares across models.
Day 2 Afternoon Sessions (14.00‐15.15)
Parallel E: Decarbonisation pathways‐ G05
Actors Behaving Badly: Modelling Non‐
Optimal Behaviour in Energy Transitions
Francis G. N. Lia, [email protected], +44 20 3108 5962
a UCL Energy Institute, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H
0NN, United Kingdom
This paper features a stochastic system dynamic model of the UK energy system,
the Behaviour, Lifestyles and Uncertainty Energy model (BLUE). BLUE is used
here to illustrate transition pathways in the energy system that deviate from
strict economic rationality, which are explored in the context of other key
uncertainties such as fuel prices and technology costs. Energy transitions in
different sectors resulting from the use of a social planning perspective and cost
optimal behaviour are compared against a counterfactual case where actors
make a range of heterogeneous choices, some of them non-optimal, and have
different perspectives on valuing the future. The initial results show that nonoptimal behaviour has the potential to impose a strong retarding force on
climate mitigation policies, rendering ambitious GHG reduction targets
extremely difficult to achieve. Despite widespread recognition of the challenges
posed by behavioural complexity, its’ representation in energy economic
modelling remains underexplored, and developing quantitative assessment
methods that can capture the socio-technical nature of energy transitions
should be a priority for model based science.
Keywords
Energy systems modelling, decarbonisation, behavioural economics, sociotechnical transitions, technology diffusion
Endogenizing
Behavioral
Effects
and
Infrastructure Investments in COCHIN‐TIMES
model and their Implications for Climate
Policy Analysis
Kalai Rameaa, David Bunchb , Christopher Yanga, Sonia Yeha, Joan Ogdena
a Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA
b Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis, CA
The motivation for integrating the behavioral approach in energy systems
model paradigm is to take advantage of TIMES-specific features such as,
system-wide carbon cap, and comprehensive infrastructure investment
analysis. This paper will focus on methodological improvements to the
COCHIN-TIMES model framework, in order to prepare the model to better
perform climate policy analysis, while retaining the behavioral aspects of
consumers. The improvements mainly include endogenizing the disu- tility
cost components, and introducing flexible infrastructure investment in the
model. The preliminary results compare the model outcome between a
baseline scenario and a climate constrained scenario, for the model versions
with strict and flexible infrastucture investment patterns.
Keywords:
Energy systems models, consumer choice, behavior, climate
policy analysis, transportation
Time use, lifestyle and energy consumption:
lessons from time use and budget data for
French households
Simona De Lauretis∗1,2, Frederic Ghersi1, and Jean-Michel Cayla2
1CIRED, AgroParisTech, Cirad, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech,
Universit´e Paris-Saclay, 94130 Nogent-sur-Marne, France
2Electricit´e de France (EDF R&D), site des Renardi`eres, 77818 Moret sur Loing
CEDEX, France
In this paper, we analyse time and material consumption requirements of
a set of 13 everyday activities, matching time use and expenditure data for
more than 14000 French households. We devote special attention to linking
energy and transport expenditures to different activities, by using additional,
dedicated
surveys to allocate residential energy consumptions,
fuel
expenses and other transport expenses to our everyday activities.
This
allows to determine the non- energy expenditure intensity and the energy
expenditure intensity for each activity and compare the results for different
income groups, household compositions and types of dwelling.
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel A: Modelling Uncertainty‐Room G01
Quantifying uncertainties influencing the
long ‐term impacts of oil prices on energy
markets and carbon emissions
David L. McCollum1*, Jessica Jewell1, Volker Krey1, Morgan Bazilian2, Marianne
Fay2, Keywan Riahi1,3
1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1,
2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Oil prices took a dramatic plunge starting in late-2014 and have remained low
ever since. Combined with parallel developments in natural gas supply, this
plunge has prompted questions regarding what the “new normal” might mean
for global markets. How will falling oil and gas prices affect energy decisionmaking over the long term? Will they damage the business case for renewables?
Will they stymie incentives to invest in energy efficiency? How do they change
the outlook for coal and nuclear? Does this spell bad news for efforts to mitigate
climate change? As yet, no scientific studies have systematically assessed these
critical unknowns. Here we present work that unpicks several potentially
influential factors, thereby going beyond economic analyses focusing on the
very near term impacts of oil prices and the limited number of scenario analyses
for the mid-to-long term
Integrated
Assessment
of
Uncertain Climate Catastrophes:
What Does the Risk of Ice Sheet
Disintegration Imply for
Economic
Analyses of Climate Policy?
Delavane Diaz and Klaus Keller
Keywords: Climate policy, risk management, social cost of carbon, ice sheet
collapse, sea level rise, endogenous uncertainty, stochastic optimization,
greenhouse gas mitigation
we analyze the effects of representing (in a very approximate way) a
potential WAIS disintegration in a stochastic programming IAM with
endogenous uncertainty. We identify methodological a n d conceptual
challenges and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through
model emulation as well as the representation of expert knowledge, and
learning.
The results illustrate the
relationships between scientific
uncertainties, policy objectives, and metrics such as the social cost of
carbon. We conclude with a discussion of key open challenges and research
needs.
Modelling to generate alternatives:
A technique to explore uncertainty
in
energy‐environment‐economy
models
James Price and Ilkka Keppo
UCL Energy Institute, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London,
WC1H ONN
Exploring
the impact
of uncertainty associated
with structural
assumptions or simpli- fications on the other hand requires altering the
underlying formulation of the model while keeping its input parameters
fixed. Here we use the technique of modelling to generatealternatives to
relax one key assumption of an E3 model, that of cost optimality, and map
the diversity of different energy systems that lie within its near cost
minimum solution space. The aim being to assess the stability of the
results implied by the model’s least cost solution and to search for
consistent insights that emerge under at least a portion of the full
structural uncertainty budget. In this study we apply MGA, the specific
methodology of which will be detailed in a later section, to the TIMES
Integrated Assessment Model in University College London (TIAM-UCL), a
global E3 model built within the International Energy Agency’s Energy
Technology System Analysis Program (IEA-ETSAP) TIMES framework.
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel B: Environmental Taxes, Trades and
Markets‐Room G02
Modelling gas transport capacity investments
with limited knowledge on future markets
Sara Giarolaa, Daniel J.G. Crowa and Adam Hawkesb,*
a
Earth Science & Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London
SW7 2AZ, UK
b
Chemical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ,
UK
In this paper a modelling framework is proposed to address and quantify the
potential issues as- sociated with the transport of gas from reserves to demand
centres. A minimum cost transport model was developed to study the evolution
and propose plausible scenarios for the transitions of the natural gas transport
system. Effects of limited foresight in decision-making involving long- term
investments are analysed. A case study is presented to address the interregional
trade of the natural gas supply on a global scale. The total configuration system
costs become higher than the intertemporal optimisation ones in scenarios
where decision-makers have only partial (i.e. limited to shorter periods in the
selected time horizon) information of market developments.
Keywords: natural gas market, natural gas transport infrastructures, LNG, longterm contracts
Consumption vs. Production Based CO2
Pricing Policies: Macroeconomic Trade‐Offs
and Carbon Leakage
Mark Sommer, Kurt Kratena, WIFO, Arsenal, Obj. 12, A-1030 Vienna, Austria
This paper compares the traditional environmental tax reform for CO2 emissions
with a taxation scheme that taxes CO2 emissions embodied in consumption
instead of domestic production in the framework of a unilateral policy of the
EU27. The embodied emissions are taxed independently of their origin. The CO2
tax rates applied are identical and revenues of the new CO2 tax are in both cases
recycled via lower social security contributions of employers as well as of
employees. The analysis is done with a DYNK (Dynamic New Keynesian) model
covering 59 industries and five groups of household income for the EU27. The
domestically (within the EU 27) embodied CO2 emissions are calculated by
unitary shocks for each commodity in the DYNK model. The emissions embodied
in imports from Non-EU 27 as well as the resulting carbon leakage from an EU
27 perspective are calculated using the results of a simple MRIO (Multi-Regional
Input-Output) model. The results show the different macroeconomic results,
driven by the different impact of the taxation schemes on price competitiveness
of EU 27 firms. These differences in trade effects also drive the differences in
leakage and show considerable negative leakage effects in the case of taxing
embodied CO2 emissions. Both taxation schemes are also regressive for
household incomes, but in a very different magnitude.
On the Transition of Europe’s Power Market‐
Benefits of Coordination
Geoffrey J. Blanforda, Electric Power Research Institute, Pao Alto, U.S.A
Christoph Weissbartb, ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Exhaustible Resources,
ifo Institute Munich, Germany
Prospects for the European power market indicate that it nearly has to fully
decarbonize by 2050 to reach the economy-wide target of an 80 % CO2-emission
reduction. Existing research on the European power market emphasizes the
future role of renewable energy sources (RES) and flexibility measures along that
decarbonization path. We add to this by using the EU- REGEN model to explain
the penetration of RES from an economic perspective, their spatial distribution,
and the complementary role of conventional generation technologies.
Furthermore, we identify economic consequences of national energy and
climate targets. Our study shows that onshore wind power will be the most
crucial generation technology for the future European power market. The paper
demonstrates that existing national targets have a negative impact on especially
the German region with higher prices and lower revenues. The remaining
regions profit or are hardly affected. We encourage an EU-wide coordination on
the expansion of wind power with harmonized policies. Yet, this requires
profitable market structures for both, RES and conventional generation
technologies.
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel C: Decarbonisation pathways ‐Room
G03
Environmental impacts of high penetration
renewable energy scenarios for Europe
Peter Berrill1, Anders Arvesen1, Yvonne Scholz2, Hans Christian Gils2 and Edgar
G Hertwich1,3
1
Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process
Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
(NTNU), Sem Sælands vei 7, NTNU, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
2 Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR),
Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany
3 Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies,
Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
Keywords: life cycle assessment (LCA), electricity scenarios, power system,
THEMIS, REMix
Our Results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better
regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated
systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the
year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in
a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems
based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate
impacts of 120–140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar
variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these
energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much
larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater
land occupation
impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource
requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.
The sensitivity of system cost and wind power
revenues to sub‐optimal investment in wind
power capacity
Joel Goop∗, Lina Reichenberg, Lisa Göransson
Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology
412 96 Göteborg, Sweden
In this paper, we therefore investigate how the system composition, total system
cost, and profits for power plant owners are affected when the level of wind
power in the system deviates from the cost-optimal value. Using a “green-field”
(not considering the existing capacity in the system) cost-minimising investment
and dispatch model for a single region with input data corresponding to Western
Denmark, we find the cost-optimal system composition with a 99 % reduction in
CO2 emissions compared with Year 1990 levels. Under cost assumptions where
nuclear power is competitive, it is the main competitor for wind power, i.e., overinvestment in wind power results mainly in reduced nuclear power generation.
In a system where nuclear power is not competitive, or not an acceptable option,
the cost-optimal wind power penetration level is substantially higher, up to 37 %
compared with 21 % in the base case. The sensitivity of the total system cost and
profits for wind power owners to sub-optimal investment levels in wind power,
are also found to be significantly higher in the system without nuclear power.
Swedish climate policy in 2050 – Does the
targets need to be defined now?
Anna Krook Riekkola, Luleå University of Technology (LTU) Erik Sandberg, Luleå
University of Technology (LTU)
Several studies have recently examined different aspects of an EU wide
greenhouse gas reduction target using energy system models. Many of the
studies focus on specific sectors such as electricity or heat. Nagl et al. (2011)
focuses on policy scenarios in Germany to reach 85% greenhouse gas emissions.
Díaz and Vliet (2015) evaluate technical feasibility after nuclear phase out in
Switzerland with regards to energy targets 2050. Gerbelová et al. (2014) focuses
on carbon taxes in Portugal as a policy to reach 80‐95% emission reduction in the
sector. Amorim et al. (2014) focuses on pathways to fully decarbonize the power
sector in Portugal, which included an evaluation on how the results would differ
if only looking at Portugal or using an integrated model scenario that also
includes Spain.
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel D: Power System pathway‐ G04
Transformation of the European Union’s
power sector to 2030 – Adding value to
IRENA’s REmap 2030 project using a
European Electricity Model
Seán Collins1, Deger Saygin 2, J.P Deane1, Brian P Ó Gallachóir1, Asami Miketa 2, Dolf Gielen 2
1Energy Policy and Modelling Group, University College Cork, Ireland
2International Renewable Energy Agency, IITC, Bonn, Germany
REmap is International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) global renewable
energy roadmap that looks at the potential, cost and benefits of renewable
energy that can be deployed in 2030 beyond a baseline. By the end of 2015, nine
countries that represent sixty percent of the European Union’s (EU) gross final
energy consumption (GFEC) were part of the REmap programme. (These
countries are: Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland,
Sweden and United Kingdom.) This paper aims to answer two fundamental
questions by scrutinizing the findings of the PLEXOS model developed and
contrasting them with the REmap analysis at a country level:
1)
How plausible are REmap results for the power sector considering
baseline grid expansion plans and flexibility measure assumptions based on the
latest ENTSO-E’s Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) and a PRIMES
Policy Scenario with high levels of variable renewable generation?
The Economic Potential Value of Near‐ and
Offshore Wind Energy: An Application to the
Portuguese Western Coast
Marine renewable energy is currently too expensive to compete with alternative
energy sources. However, many countries have created support schemes
specific for those energy sources to account for the positive externalities
associated with their deployment. Taking into account decreasing capital costs
in real prices, externalities of renewable energy production, as well as factors at
local level which influence the profitability of the investment, we develop a
dynamic model to assess the economic potential value of near- and offshore
wind energy at local level. An empirical application is performed at the PenicheNazaré study site located in the northwestern coast of Portugal. Our results
indicate that offshore wind energy stands as the one with the highest
economic potential value, if cheaper offshore wind technologies are developed.
Day 2 Late Afternoon Sessions (15.45‐17.00)
Parallel E: Behavior and People‐ G05
Willingness to pay for solar home systems in
Guinea Bissau: consumers’ preferences for
different delivery models
Maria Apergi - London School of Economics and Political Science, UK
Solar home systems are a viable alternative to achieve energy access in
developing countries especially in areas lacking grid infrastructure; despite their
important potential there is a dearth of research regarding the best ways to
disseminate these products. This stated preference study uses a choice
experiment to estimate willingness to pay for a solar home system and the
attributes of different delivery models (repayment schemes and maintenance
obligations) in the region of Bafatá in Guinea Bissau. It is, to the best of my
knowledge, the first to do so. Results suggest that preferences are driven
both by economic as well as behavioral factors namely self-control problems
(elicited through a time elicitation game) and by social capital namely reported
trust. Finally, implicit discount rates inferred from preferences for repayment
over time allowed to confirm certain priors regarding discounting anomalies that
have been outlined in the discounting literature namely excessive discounting,
preference heterogeneity and time preference reversals.
Incorporating Social Influence Effects into
Global Integrated Assessment Models
Hazel Pettifor and Charlie Wilson, University of East Anglia
David McCollum, Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) Oreane Edelenbosch, PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment
Agency
Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) are widely used to evaluate the
costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission
trajectories over the medium-to-long term. With their necessary levels of
aggregation, IAMs do not represent individual interacting decision makers, but
rather ‘representative agents’ that describe aggregate behaviour at the mean
(McCollum et al., 2015). The climate change mitigation scenarios produced by
these IAMs, however, are increasingly being designed to be more ‘realistic’ by
incorporating features observed in the real world. One important feature of the
‘real world’ relates to human behaviour (McCollum et al., 2016).
In this paper we present an entirely evidence based approach to improving the
behavioural representation of global integrated assessment models with an
application to private transport. Drawing on a meta-analysis of 21 studies
independently measuring the effect of social influences on
personal vehicle
choice we present a novel approach to capturing aversion to new technology
(alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs)) within both a simulation and an
optimisation model.
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel A: Transport Pathways‐Room G01
Implications of Future Freight Demand
Growth for Climate Change Mitigation
Matteo Muratori a*, Steven J. Smith a, Page Kyle a, Robert Link a
a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – Joint Global Change Research Institute,
College Park, MD 20740 USA
KEYWORDS
Integrated
Assessment Model;
Freight Demand,
Decoupling,
Freight
Environmental Impact, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM
We explore the implication of such a decoupling using a state-of-the-art
integrated assessment model: the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM).
Results show that over the 21st century, GHG emissions from freight are
projected to grow faster than other transportation sectors, with the
magnitude
of
growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term
decoupling. Moreover, in climate change mitigation scenarios, mitigation of
freight emissions (including the effects of fuel substitution, demand
elasticity, and mode shifting) is more limited than for other demand sectors.
The role of carbon dioxide utilisation for
transportation fuels in EU28 until 2050, an
analysis using JRC‐EU‐times
Wouter Nijs, +31-224-565481, [email protected] Sgobbi,
[email protected]
Mar
Pérez-Fortes,
maria-del-mar.perez-
[email protected] Evangelos Tzimas, [email protected]
Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre – European
Commission*, Westerduinweg 3, NL-1755LE Petten, The Netherlands
Keywords:
CDU;
CCU;
Utilization;
Energy
system
models;
TIMES;
Decarbonisation; EU28
In this paper, the JRC-EU-TIMES model – a bottom-up, technology-rich model of
the EU28 energy system – is used to assess the role of CDU under long-term
decarbonisation scenarios. We introduced in JRC-EU-TIMES CDU technologies
that consume CO2 captured directly from the air (DAC) or from stationary
sources (SSC) in the power, industry and transformation sectors. Our results
indicate that CDU using CO2 from stationary sources could play a role as a
flexibility option in the power sector when electricity is cheap in periods of high
supply of variable renewables. Moreover, when CO2 cannot be permanently
stored, the role of CDU is further enhanced. In this scenario, dedicated power to
liquid and biomass to liquid play a significant role and the CO2 is mostly captured
from biomass combustion or transformation.
Modelling
the
role
of
Transport
Infrastructure in a low‐carbon World
Eoin Ó BROIN*, Céline GUIVARCH: CIRED, 45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle,
Nogent‐sur‐Marne Cedex 94736, France
The rate and manner in which transport infrastructure (e.g. roads, railway
tracks, airports) is deployed will play an important role in determining energy
demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the economic impact of the transport
sector. To date, the inclusion of transport infrastructure in Integrated
Assessment Models (IAMs) has been rudimentary. This paper describes an
exercise whereby the approach to the inclusion of transport infrastructure for
automobiles, public transport and air travel in the IMACLIM‐R Global E3 IAM
has been developed to incorporate the costs of investment in
infrastructure and some physical constraints on its deployment. There are two
key findings. The first is that recalibrating the baseline to include costs and
constraints on the deployment of infrastructure results in lowered GDP and
higher energy and carbon intensity. This is because investments in
infrastructure increase the activity of the construction sector and this slows
structural change of the economy towards more productive and less carbon
intensive sectors.
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel B: Environmental taxes, markets and
trades‐Room G02
Energy Security Scenarios of Future Europe.
Assessing the impacts of societal processes
Christophe Cassen1, Meriem Hamdi-Chérif2, Giancarlo Cotella3, Jacopo Toniolo4,
Patrizia Lombardi5, Jean-Charles Hourcade6
1 Société de mathématiques appliquées et sciences humaines (SMASH)- Centre
International de Recherche sur l’environnement et le Développement (CIREDCNRS)
Keywords: energy security, integrated assessment models, climate policies,
transport, urban forms, scenarios, societal processes, MILESECURE-2050
We present the results produced through IMACLIM-R, a model allowing for the
integration of innovative dimensions as the urban form, transport dynamics,
environmental policies and human behaviours. In so doing it enables a
pluridisciplinary dialog within the scientific community. Building on the
preliminary study of a set of local good practices, the contribution introduces
three scenarios presenting different assumptions on the energy transition and
the implementation of climate policies. The results of the study demonstrate the
positive macroeconomic outcomes of combining societal processes with
transport dynamics in energy transition scenarios, also in terms of energy
security. Finally, the policy implications of the presented scenarios are sketched
out and discussed.
Can Energy Efficiency Standards Reduce
Prices and Improve Quality? Evidence from
the US Clothes Washer Market
Arlan Brucal and Michael Roberts
We develop a constant-quality price index using same-model price changes
of clothes washer models sold in the US between 2001 and 2011. We use
this index to disentangle overall price and quality changes, and then
examine how each changed as energy efficiency standards be- come
progressively more stringent. The topic is clothes washers because it is the
only durable good for which this kind of analysis can be implemented during
a period of incremental policy changes. We find constant-quality prices fell
over time while overall quality increased, each at approximately the same
average rate as refrigerators, which did not experience any changes in
the
minimum
standard.
Furthermore, price declined and
improvements accelerated around
times
quality
energy efficiency standards
changed. With policy changes apparently coordinating entry and exit of
new models, average vintage falls sharply when standards change.
Unilateral emission pricing and OPEC’s
behaviour
Christoph Böhringer* Knut Einar Rosendahl and Jan Schneider
* University of Oldenburg. E-mail: [email protected]
** Norwegian University of Life Science; Statistics Norway. E-mail:
[email protected]
*** Corresponding author. University of Oldenburg. E-mail: [email protected]
Keywords: Carbon Leakage, Oil Market, OPEC Behaviour
Unilateral climate policies involve the risk of carbon leakage, driven by price
changes in the oil market and other international markets. We have shown in
previous analysis that OPEC may have an incentive to increase the oil price as a
response to EU climate policy, thereby retaining resource rents and turning
leakage through the oil market negative. In this paper, we examine the
implications of OPEC’s strategic responses more thoroughly by extending our
former analysis along four key dimensions: (i) the size of the climate coalition,
(ii) the size of the oil cartel, (iii) oil-gas price linkages in the EU and Japan, and
(iv) subsidies for oil consumption within OPEC. We show that the coalition or
cartel size critically affect the scope for rent seeking and leakage reduction,
whereas oil-gas price linkages in the EU and Japan or subsidies within OPEC do
not alter the findings of our previous analysis.
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel C: Macro and Socio Economic
Impacts‐Room G03
The macroeconomic impact of climate
change mitigation action in Latin America: a
model comparison
Tom Kober1*, Philip Summerton2, Hector Pollitt2, Unnada Chewpreecha2,
Xiaolin Ren3, William Wills4, Claudia Octaviano5, James McFarland6, Robert
Beach7, Yongxia Cai7, Silvia Calderon8, Karen Fisher- Vanden9, Ana Maria
Loboguerro Rodriguez10
1 Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, The
Netherlands Agriculture, Cali, Colombia et al
In this paper, we analyse macroeconomic consequences of greenhouse gas
emissions mitigation action in Latin America up to 2050 through a multi-model
approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We
compare two carbon tax scenarios with a business-as-usual scenario needed to
satisfy anticipated future energy demand. We find that in the short and medium
term, with carbon prices reaching around $15/tCO2 by 2030, most models agree
that the reduction in consumer spending, as a proxy for welfare, is expected to
be limited to about 0.3%. By 2050, and at high carbon prices of $165/tCO2, there
is much more divergence in the estimated impact on GDP and consumer
spending across models and across regions, reflecting the uncertainty about the
cost of technology and substitution between technology options.
Keywords: Climate policy; energy and economy models; GDP; employment
Modeling climate mitigation and economic
growth in relation to employment and skills
in South Africa
Jules SCHERS,1 Frédéric GHERSI,1 Franck LECOCQ 1
1: CIRED, UMR 8568 CNRS, ENPC, EHESS, CIRAD, AgroParisTech. 45 bis Avenue
de la Belle Gabrielle
94736 Nogent/Marne Cedex, FRANCE.
Keywords: South Africa, Climate Mitigation, Carbon Tax, Recycling schemes,
Labour market, Skills
We explore two values of the carbon tax (respectively 100 and 300 Rand/tCO2)
and five strategies for recycling the tax proceeds, namely: reducing public
deficits, reducing sales taxes, reducing income and corporate taxes, increasing
government expenditure, and transferring proceeds to households on a per
capita lump-sum basis. We find that at 100 Rand/tCO2, revenue recycling
through sales tax reduction yields a double dividend compared to our reference
projection without a carbon tax. However, 300 Rand/tCO2 is needed to achieve
a reduction of CO2 emissions close to South Africa’sINDC. At this tax level, we
find only minor economic impacts relative to the reference projection when
the proceeds are recycled into a reduction of sales tax, but much higher when
the proceeds are recycled differently.
Managing climate damages: exploring
potential trade‐offs
Steven Rose-Energy and Environmental Analysis Research Group, Electric Power
Research Institute
For this analysis, we extend the MERGE integrated assessment model by adding
characterizations of potential climate damages and the capability to consider a
vast range of uncertainties as alternative sets of assumptions. MERGE is a
coupled energy-economic and climate model with detailed energy technologies.
In this study, for a given set of assumptions, we compute the greenhouse gas
emissions path that endogenously balances marginal mitigation costs and
marginal avoided climate damages. This produces an economically “efficient”
emissions path for that particular set of assumptions. Emissions are reduced if
the marginal benefit exceeds the marginal cost. However, the decision problem
is intertemporal with today’s marginal benefits depending on tomorrow’s
mitigation and emissions path. The climate outcome is determined
endogenously by balancing intertemporal benefits and costs of emissions
reductions. But, unlike risk analysis with probabilities on assumptions,
assumptions are known with certainty.
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel D: Power System pathways ‐Room
G04
Natural Gas Outlook for the Southern Cone:
outcomes from an hourly basis TIMES
natural gas & power model
Mauro F. Chávez-Rodríguez1*, Luís Dias2, Sofia Simoes2, Júlia Seixas2,
Alexandre Szklo1, André F.P. Lucena1, Adam Hawkes3
1Energy Planning Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Centro de
Tecnologia, bloco C, sala 211 - CEP: 21949-972
Cidade Universitária - Ilha do
Fundão
2 CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Faculdade de
Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, 2829–516 Caparica,
Portugal
3Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, Exhibition Rd.,
London, United Kingdom
In this paper we pursue a twofold objective: i) describe the methodology
followed to develop a TIMES model for the natural gas chain in the Southern
Cone aiming to forecast natural gas supply and demand in the region until 2025,
and ii) present our preliminary results on the natural gas trends in the region.
Resource diversity impacts on storage in a
high variable renewable power system
B. Lyseng1, T. Niet1,2, J. English1, K. Palmer-Wilson1, A. Rowe1, P. Wild1, I.
Moazzen1, B. Robertson1, V. Keller1
1 University of Victoria, Canada; 2 British Columbia Institute of Technology,
Canada
In this research, a new method is developed for assessing VRE expansion and
storage requirements. Multiple scenarios, representing different potential
wind/solar build-outs (i.e. spatial and fractional capacity distributions), are
evaluated for their required VRE capacity and storage power to meet a target
VRE penetration level. For each scenario, a VRE capacity - storage power curve
is generated, revealing the optimal capacities to meet the target level.
The
methodology is demonstrated on the power system in Alberta, a Canadian
province roughly twice the size of Germany. Hourly data used for wind and solar
sites span the province’s four wind regimes and include both rooftop and largescale solar at several locations.
Different systems that can achieve 80% VRE
penetration are assessed.
Results indicate that diversity of resources is extremely helpful to attain high
VRE penetration with storage.
Less windy locations can be beneficial
if they have low correlation with other sites by enabling higher storage utilisation
factors and lower loading powers.
Lifecycle Energy Demand and Indirect
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Electricity
Sector
Michaja Pehla,*, Anders Arvesenb, Florian Humpenödera, Alexander Poppa,
Edgar Hertwichc, Gunnar Luderera
aPotsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam,
Germany
bNorwegian University of Science and Technology – Industrial Ecology
Programme
cYale University, Center for Industrial Ecology, School for Forestry and
Environmental Studies
We calculate the need for bulk materials (cement, steel), transportation and
other energy over the life cycle and de - rive the indirect energy use (IEU) of
electricity production technologies by energy secondary energy carriers (solids,
liquids, gases and electricity). We find that fossil fuels (coal and gas) and
hydropower use 9–13% of pro - duced energy indirectly, with CCS causing an
increase of about 3%. The IEU of biomass and biomass electricity and CCS (BECCS)
is twice as high (25–30%), while wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), nuclear and
concentrating sol - ar power (CSP) use only between 2.5% and 6% of the
produced energy. For the fuel-burning technologies (coal, gas, biomass), most of
the IEU is due to fuel production, handling and transportation and in the form of
liquids and gases, while wind, hydro and solar technologies use most their
indirect energy up-front.
Day 3 Morning Sessions (11.30‐12.45)
Parallel E: Post Paris Pathways‐Room G05
Exploring pathways for fulfilment of
Kazakhstan’s INDC targets
Bakytzhan Suleimenov, Aidyn Bakdolotov, Aiymgul Kerimray, National
Laboratory Astana, Nazarbayev University
Rocco De Miglio, E4SMA srl
Corresponding
Author:
Bakytzhan
Suleimenov.
Email:
[email protected]
Keywords: INDC, energy systems modeling, emissions trading scheme
The results indicate that Kazakhstan’s -15% INDC target is rather ambitious
and would require facilitated construction of gas pipeline to the non-gasified
regions and almost full replacement of old inefficient coal fired power plants
with more efficient gas CHP plants. The successful ETS and Green Economy
policies contribute to the GHG emissions reduction significantly compared to
BaU, however still not sufficient to fulfill INDC targets. Other options to fulfill
INDC could be stronger cap on ETS sectors, or extending ETS by including
other sectors and gases. Thus, design and cap of the Fourth-Fifth National
Allocation plans for the period
2020-2030
would
be
crucial
for
the
fulfillment of the country’s international commitments. The marginal CO2
price in 2030 is 68 USD 2000 in ETS+Green Economy, and 87
USD 2000 in INDC - 15%. This also proves that ETS will play a crucial role in
achieving INDC targets in the most economically feasible way.
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives
Markus Wråke1*, Fredrik Martinsson1 János Hethey3, Anders Kofoed-Wiuff3,
Nina Dupont3, Kenneth Karlsson4, Klaus Skytte4, Marie Münster4, Cristian
Cabrera4, Tiina Koljonen5, Kari Espegren6, Benjamin Smith7, Brynhildur
Davidsdottir8, Thomas Unger9, Mattias Bisaillon9
(1IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, 2International Energy Agency,
3Ea Energy Analyses, 4 DTU Management Engineering , 5 VTT Finland, 6 IFE
Norway, 7 Nordic Energy Research, 8University of Iceland, 9Profu)
Analysis of the Nordic energy system has relevance beyond the region itself. The
five Nordic countries 1 have among the most ambitious energy and climate
policy agendas in the world. Each has challenging targets, often expressed in
wording such as “fossil free” or “carbon-neutral”. They are front runners in
decisive policy action towards clear, long- term energy targets – including the
establishment of interconnected grids and a common liberalised power market.
With rich renewable energy resources, the Nordic countries are in a strong
position to make a transition from fossil fuels to low- or zero-carbon energy
sources. Thus important lessons can be learned both from past experiences and
which challenges that will emerge 15-20 years from now in other countries that
set out to transform their energy systems.
Hybrid linking TIAM and IMACLIM‐KLEM:
Assessing technological mitigation pathways
from INDCs towards 1.5C
James GLYNN 1, Frédéric GHERSI 3, Franck LECOCQ 2, Brian Ó GALLACHÓIR 1,
1 Environmental Research Institute
University College Cork, IRELAND
2 CIRED 94736 Nogent-Sur-Marne CEDEX, FRANCE
Bottom Up (BU) techno-economic models often times give insights into
the technical possibilities to Climate Change mitigation without representing the
macroeconomic transition pathways with sufficient realism and feedback. Top
down (TD) macroeconomic models give greater macroeconomic realism of the
long term dynamics that drive the global energy system, but suffer from a lack
of technical realism. What are the financial mechanisms required invest in radical
infrastructure role out? What are the requirements upon the labour force for
training and employment to implement the transition? What are the achievable
rates of decarbonisation without driving the global economy into recession?
This long abstract outlines collaboration between CIRED and University College
Cork which hybridises ETSAP-TIAM - a technology rich BU global energy systems
model - with a reduced form 2 sector multi region macroeconomic (IMACLIM
KLEM) TD model. We explore the feedbacks to energy service demand and
economic growth in a decarbonising energy system under the perspective of
new global macroeconomic reality of slower than expected growth, while aiming
to move from INDC pledges towards 1.5C mitigation pathways.