Nuclear Power’s role in reducing
carbon air emissions in Illinois
Generating almost half of state’s power with zero CO2 emissions
Analysis of CO2 emissions replacement by nuclear power generation in Illinois
March 2014
www.ilcleanenergy.org
Introduction
While the debate rages on about the extent of anthropogenic climate change, we do know that
human activity has and will continue to have an effect on our global environment. Policy
makers face the challenge of striking a balance between our desire to reduce industrial impact
on our environment and the often significant resulting economic costs. These discussions
become particularly contentious when considering the impact of electricity generation, given
the critical economic and societal importance of ample and affordable electricity.
Electricity remains vital for every sector of our economy and society. In Illinois, manufacturing,
retail, agriculture, transportation, health care and the rapidly-growing information technology
sectors all are dependent on electricity that is reliable and cost-effective. Electricity is a
ubiquitous feature of home life as well. The centrality of electricity means that reliability of its
supply and affordability have an even broader effect on our economy. A decrease in reliability
or an increase in prices can spell trouble for jobs, economic growth, and household incomes
across the state.
2012 Illinois Electricity Generation by source (in megawatt hours)
Nuclear
96,401,309
48.8%
Coal
80,826,778
40.9%
Natural Gas
11,188,975
5.7%
Wind
7,726,810
3.9%
Other
1,421,491
0.7%
Total
197,565,363
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
At the same time, some areas of Illinois face persistent air-quality issues, and emissions from
the Midwest can have significant impacts as far away as New England. Thus, we are left with a
vital question: How do we maintain an abundant supply of electricity without deteriorating the
air we breathe and achieve long-term emission reduction goals?
Evaluating Carbon Displacement of Energy Sources
Electricity, of course, does not come to us fully formed but must be produced through the
conversion of some other energy source: the combustion of coal or natural gas, the capture
and conversion of wind, sun or geothermal energy, falling water and controlled nuclear
reaction.
2
Nuclear and coal are the predominant energy sources for electricity production in Illinois,
together accounting for 9 of every 10 kilowatt hours put into the electrical grid.
One major difference among the various energy sources of electricity is the resulting emission
of carbon dioxide. Excessive carbon dioxide emissions have been shown to impact both
individual health and the global environment. Producing electric power is the single biggest
source of CO2 emissions from human activity. In
choosing different sources for electric power, society
makes a decision whether or not to accept millions of
In 2012, nuclear
tons of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere as part of
power generation in
the price for that power. In choosing non-carbon
Illinois prevented
emitting energy sources, we can prevent, or “displace”
CO2 and other emissions that would result from other
the emission of over
sources.
92 million tons of
carbon dioxide.
In recently considering the environmental benefit of
non-carbon emitting electricity sources, analysts with
Environment Illinois calculated the carbon dioxide
emissions that were “displaced” by wind generation.
While the data shows that Illinois’ current wind
generation replaces significant carbon emissions, further analysis shows that the state’s
nuclear fleet displaces twenty times more CO2 than wind in Illinois.
Analysis of the same data used by Environment Illinois, primarily from the U.S. Energy
Information Agency, shows that in 2012, nuclear power generation in Illinois prevented the
emission of over 92 million tons of carbon dioxide which would have added to the significant
environmental and health impacts resulting from electricity production.
In 2013, the journal Environmental Science & Technology published a study by the NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies that calculated the air pollution emissions displaced by
nuclear power and the number of deaths that were avoided around the world by preventing
various emissions from fossil fuel power plants.1
The Goddard Institute study found “that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84
million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas
emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning.”2
1
Kharecha and Hansen, Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Histoical and Projected Nuclear
Power, Environmental Science & Technology, March 15, 2013.
2
A gigatonne is the equivalent of one billion tonnes
3
In a study published in 2007 by the British medical journal The Lancet researchers found, “the
health burdens to be greatest for power stations that most pollute outdoor air (those based on
lignite, coal, and oil). The health burdens are appreciably smaller for generation from natural
gas, and lower still for nuclear power.”3
The Illinois Clean Energy Coalition, committed to balancing economic growth, energy diversity
and a cleaner environment, believes the data show nuclear energy to be a vital component in
reducing carbon emissions while preserving a reliable, diverse and cost-effective energy
market.
*
*
*
*
Carbon Dioxide Displacement by Illinois’
Nuclear Fleet
In 2013 climate scientists James Hansen, Ken
Caldeira, Kerry Emanuel and Tom Wigley penned an
open letter to energy policy leaders around the
world voicing what is increasingly apparent to those
seeking to stem global carbon emissions—that
“continued opposition to nuclear power threatens
humanity's ability to avoid dangerous climate
change.”4
The Illinois Clean Energy Coalition’s analysis of
energy and emissions data shows that the use of
nuclear energy in Illinois is a major factor in limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and its replacement with
other currently available sources would have
enormous environmental repercussions.
If the 96.4 million
megawatts of
electricity generated
by nuclear energy had
to be replaced, CO2
production from fuel
use would increase by
over 40%, and CO2
from electricity
generation would
nearly double.
Based on the most recent data from the United States Energy Information Agency, electricity
generation from coal in Illinois produced 97.1 million tons of carbon dioxide air emissions, while
natural gas generation emitted 3.5 million tons of CO2. During the same period, coal and
3
Markandya and Wilkinson, Electricity Generation and Health, The Lancet, Volume 370, Issue 9591, Pages 979 -
990, 15 September 2007
4
CNN. Top Climate Scientists issue open letter to policy infuencers. Nov. 3, 2013.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/03/world/nuclear-energy-climate-change-scientists-letter/index.html
4
natural gas generated 90 and 5.9 million megawatts of electricity respectively in the state. This
allows for the calculation of carbon dioxide emissions per megawatt hour by energy source.5
Annual CO2 emissions from electricity production by source
Annual megawatt hours of electricity generated by source
= CO2 emissions per MWH
Thus, coal produces 1.079 tons of CO2 emissions for each megawatt hour of electricity, while
natural gas emits 0.585 tons per megawatt.
If the 96.4 million megawatts of electricity generated by nuclear energy had to be replaced,
based on Illinois’ current mix of electricity generation sources, the state’s total CO2 production
from fuel use would increase by over 40%.
Illinois CO2 Emissions without Nuclear Power
200
180
2010 CO2 Emissions in tons
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation
2010
Projected CO2 Emission without Nuclear
Power
Another way of looking at the magnitude of nuclear’s value in avoiding emissions is that Illinois’
nuclear power generation in 2012 replaced the equivalent of all the CO2 emissions from every
passenger car registered in Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa, combined, in that year.6
5
6
U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. Electric Power Industry Estimated Emissions by State, EIA 767
U.S. EPA, Greenhouse Gas Equivalency Calculator.
5
The pursuit of large-scale reductions in CO2 emissions from electricity production is feasible
only with the continued operation of Illinois’ fleet of nuclear power generating stations, which
have already prevented billions of tons of carbon
dioxide pollution since commercial nuclear power was
first introduced here in the 1960’s.
Illinois’ nuclear power in
U. S. Department of Energy Assistant Secretary Peter
2012 replaced the
Lyons concurred in this view when he told an energy
equivalent of all the CO2
conference audience that a significant reduction in
emissions from every
nuclear energy production would make it impossible
passenger car registered in
to achieve the Obama administration’s goal of
Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin
7
lowering carbon emissions.
and Iowa, combined
Trends in Energy Production and CO2
Emissions
Over the past ten years in Illinois emissions from fuel consumption have pumped an average of
232.6 million tons of carbon dioxide annually into the atmosphere8. Carbon dioxide emissions
Non-CO2 Energy Sources by MWH
100,000,000
Megawatts produced 2012
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Nuclear
Wind
Other*
* inc. solar, hydro, geothermal
7
Michael Krancer, Obama Energy Official: Nuclear Plants Essential to our Carbon Reduction Goals, Forbes, Feb. 12,
2014.
8
U.S. Energy Information Agency, State CO2 Emissions, January 31, 2013
6
are a major factor in the greenhouse effect that impacts the global environment and may
negatively affect public health and climate.
In 2007 the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group, made up of policy experts, environmental
advocates, businesses and labor leaders, set the recommended goal of reducing the state’s CO2
emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. The group’s analysis estimated that to achieve this
goal the state would need to reduce CO2 emissions by
81 million tons by the end of this decade.9
In Illinois, energy production is the single biggest
producer of carbon dioxide from fuel consumption,
accounting for over 40% of the total. Lowering
electricity production’s contribution to Illinois CO2
emissions is a priority of the Illinois Clean Energy
Coalition. This data indicate that this objective will be
nearly impossible if nuclear generation has to be
replaced by other available electricity sources.
In the past decade, while total CO2 emissions in Illinois
have remained relatively stable, the share resulting
from energy production has increased as industrial
emissions have declined and residential and
commercial emissions have been flat.
To equal the CO2
displacement of
Illinois’ nuclear power
fleet the number of
wind turbines across
the state would need
to increase from the
current 2,200 to over
27,000
Illinois has been a leader among the states in ramping up wind energy production which helps
displace carbon-emitting electricity sources. In the past ten years, wind energy production has
gone from zero to over 7.7 million megawatt hours in 2012 and illinois is the fourth biggest
wind energy producing state in the Union.10
A key concern is how to maintain sufficient and affordable baseload supply while renewable
sources are developed in line with policies favoring carbon-free generation. Even with the huge
advances in wind and, to a lesser extent, solar production in Illinois, renewables in total,
accounted for only 8% of the state’s electricity in 2012.
9
Report of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group, September 6, 2007
10
U.S. EIA, Net Generation by State by Type of Producer by Energy Source (EIA-906, EIA-920, and EIA923)
7
In its recent study, Environment Illinois shows that wind generation in the state avoided 4.6
million tons of CO2 emissions in 201211. That number is projected to increase as more wind
generation comes on line in future years.
It important to note that to equal the CO2 displacement of Illinois’ nuclear power fleet as
calculated above, the number of wind turbines across the state would need to increase from
the current 2,200 to over 27,000, more than a twelvefold increase. Given the relative population density of
northeastern Illinois and topographical constraints to
Nuclear Power Stations
operating in Illinois
wind generation, it is physically impossible to replace
nuclear’s carbon-free emissions with wind generation.
Dresden
Grundy Co.
Further, wind resources require substantial non-wind,
LaSalle
LaSalle Co.
“dispatchable” generating capacity with fast start
Quad Cities Rock Island
capability due to wind’s inherent intermittency.
Co.
Wind can and should continue to play a growing role in
creating a diverse, clean and home-grown energy
supply, but it cannot supplant nuclear as the primary
carbon-free electricity source.
Clinton
Byron
Braidwood
DeWitt Co.
Ogle County
Will County
In addition to the insurmountable geographic challenges to wind energy replacing nuclear in
Illinois, such an expansion would immediately cost approximately $2 billion in increased federal
payouts in the form of wind energy tax credits.
The federal taxpayer subsidy, along with state and local incentives, is in danger of producing
exactly the opposite of the goal it sought to achieve. By driving down the market price for
electricity while subsidizing wind (and to some extent, solar) producers, energy policies
threaten to drive some nuclear plants to close. The only way to replace such large baseload
generation immediately would be to increase the use of fossil fuels. Failure to replace lost
nuclear generation would also result in higher prices and decreased reliability through the
market.
Undermining nuclear energy’s role in CO2 displacement is not just theoretical. Germany has
recently undertaken the politically-driven process of ending nuclear power generation. In
recent years, nuclear power accounted for about a quarter of the country’s generation. With
even more geographic limitations to wind energy development nearly all the resulting energy
loss will be replaced by fossil fuels.
11
Jordan Schneider, Tony Dutzik, Environment Illinois, Wind Energy For A Cleaner America II. Fall 2013
8
University of Strathclyde researcher Robert Wilson analyzed the initial shut down of eight
German nuclear plants and found that it resulted in an increase in CO2 emissions of 30 million
tons per year—a precipitous move in the wrong direction when it comes to the environment.12
As Assistant Energy Secretary Lyons was quoted by Forbes, “when well-run, clean energy
sources are forced out of the marketplace due to a combination of reduced demand, low
natural gas prices and market structure, our markets are providing the wrong signals.”13
Conclusion
Given the significant levels of carbon emissions prevented by nuclear energy in Illinois, any
policies that directly or indirectly lead to a reduction in nuclear generation will result in major
increased reliance on sources that generate CO2 and other air pollutants and make it virtually
impossible to achieve state or federal emission reduction goals.
Replacing the 96 million megawatts of electricity generated by nuclear in Illinois in 2012 with
other available sources would result in 92 million tons of increased CO2 emissions, negatively
impacting public health and would overwhelmingly negate all environmental gains made by the
development of renewable energy sources.
As Dr. Hansen and his colleagues put it, “Renewables like wind and solar and biomass will
certainly play roles in a future energy economy, but those energy sources cannot scale up fast
enough to deliver cheap and reliable power at the scale the global economy requires.”14
*
*
*
*
*
The Illinois Clean Energy Coalition, launched in 2012, is a group of business leaders, policy experts, local officials
and interested citizens who support the common-sense pursuit of a cleaner environment and a reliable, safe and
cost-effective energy market. Learn more at www.ilcleanenergy.org
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Illinois Clean Energy Coalition thanks the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition (CASEnergy) for its support and
collaboration and the efforts of its Co-Chair, Governor Christine Todd Whitman to educate the public on the
environmental benefits of nuclear energy.
We also than Philip O’Connor, PhD., former Chairman of the Illinois Commerce Commission and member of the
ICEC Steering Committee, for his invaluable insights into the nature of energy markets and how public policies
impact those markets.
12
Robert Wilson, Germany’s Nuclear Folly, Carbon Counter, www.carboncounter.wordpress.com
Krancer
14
CNN. Top Climate Scientists issue open letter to policy infuencers. Nov. 3, 2013.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/03/world/nuclear-energy-climate-change-scientists-letter/index.html
13
9