Carlisle Circulator
Title VI Analysis
With Act 44 Performance Metrics
Fast Facts:
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Provides local (non-commuter) bus service for the Carlisle area
Three-year demonstration transit project funded by PennDOT and local stakeholders within
Cumberland County
Operates 15 trips per weekday and 13 trips per Saturday (average of 4,600 trips per year)
Transports an average of 22,000 passengers per year (monthly average of 1,833 passengers)
Provides direct service to various employment centers, shopping centers, and both medical and
residential properties
Ridership Trends:
Beginning service on April 28, 2014, the Carlisle Circulator’s ridership had steadily risen – reaching its
height of 2,525 passengers per month in September 2015. However, since the fall of 2015 ridership has
fluctuated on a monthly basis with the latest monthly passenger count from December 2016 being 1,806
passengers per month.
Monthly Ridership
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Monthly Ridership
Title VI Analysis & Methodology:
As a federally funded transportation agency, Capital Area Transit (CAT) complies with Title VI of the Civil
Rights Act of 1964, which states “no person in the United States shall, on the grounds of race, color, or
national origin, be excluded from participation in, be denied benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination
under any program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance.”
In addition, Title VI is used as an implementation vehicle to administer Environmental Justice directives,
which apply to any Federal activities (such as funding a transportation agency) on the grounds of race,
color, national origin and income.
To this end, CAT conducted a demographical analysis of the Carlisle Circulator ridership to ensure that
no protected classes would experience a Disproportionate Burden or Disparate Impact (defined below)
from changes in service levels, up to and including the discontinuation of the route at the end of the
demonstration period.
For Title VI compliance, the area within a ¼ mile buffer of the Carlisle Circulator route was analyzed to
determine the localized population as well as the percentage of low-income and minority populations.
The chart below illustrates the population figures obtained from the analysis:
Populations with ¼ mile
Percentage of Population
Population
100.00%
26.02%*
21.74%*
11,941
3,108
2,596
General (localized)
Low-income Persons
Minorities
* Percentages rounded from 26.0240963855422% and 21.7402227619127%, respectively
By analyzing schedule data (service span & frequency) it was estimated that the Carlisle Circulator
provides approximately 4,600 annual bus trips within the Carlisle area.
By multiplying the localized, low-income and minority populations by the number of annual bus trips,
CAT was able to calculate the following people-trips, or opportunities for the indicated population to
ride the Carlisle Circulator per year:
Populations with ¼
mile
Population
Annual Bus
Trips (estimated)
Annual People-Trips
(Population x Trips)
Percentage of
People-Trips
General (localized)
Low-income Persons
Minorities
11,941
3,108
2,596
4,600
4,600
4,600
54,928,600
14,294,672
11,941,600
100.00%
26.02%*
21.74%*
* Percentages rounded from 26.0240963855422% and 21.7402227619127%, respectively
In order to determine the effects of a service change that would result in the discontinuation of local bus
service within the Carlisle area, the current number of low-income and minority people-trips were
subtracted from the remaining number of low-income and minority people-trips:
Populations with
¼ mile
General
(localized)
Low-income
Persons
Minorities
Current
Proposed
Difference
Annual PeopleTrips (Population x
Annual PeopleTrips (Population
Annual PeopleTrips (Population x
Trips)
x Trips)
Trips)
54,928,600
0
- 54,928,600
-100.00%
14,294,672
0
-14,294,672
-26.02%*
11,941,600
0
-11,941,600
-21.74%*
Percentage of
People-Trips
* Percentages rounded from 26.0240963855422% and 21.7402227619127%, respectively
Based off of Census data, the proposed changes translate into an average change of 14.31% for non-low
income populations and an average change of 21.47% for non-minority populations within the ¼ mile
buffer.
Using the above Title VI analysis, within the ¼ mile buffer of the Carlisle Circulator route, the low income
population would be impacted by a change of -26.02%, while minority populations would experience a
change of -21.74%.
According to CAT’s Title VI Program guidelines, a Disproportionate Burden occurs when a low income
population is affected at least 20% more by a fare or service change than the general non-low income
population. Additionally, CAT’s Title VI Program guidelines dictate that a Disparate Impact occurs when
a minority population is affected at least 20% more by a fare or service change than the general nonminority population.
The chart below illustrates the effect of the proposed service change on both the general population as
well as the low-income and minority populations within ¼ mile of the Carlisle Circulator route:
Within ¼ mile buffer
Low Income
Minority
Impact to…
General Population Impact
Difference in Change:
26.02%
14.31%
11.71%
21.74%
21.47%
0.27%
The low income population within a ¼ mile buffer of the Carlisle Circulator would be impacted 11.71%
more than the non-low income population within the same area. In addition, the minority population
within a ¼ mile buffer of the Carlisle Circulator would be impacted 0.27% more than the non-minority
income population within the same area.
The change either group would experience from the removal of local bus service in Carlisle, while
substantial on its own, would not rise to the threshold of being either a Disproportionate Burden or
Disparate Impact for the purposes of Title VI adherence.
Act 44 Performance Metrics
Established as a demonstration project under Act 44, the Carlisle Circulator is funded by PennDOT and
several local Cumberland County stakeholders. In accordance with receiving state funding, the
aforementioned entities in conjunction with CAT established performance measures for each of the
three years of the demonstration period. These agreed upon performance measures are detailed in a
signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Cumberland County Commissioners and CAT.
Each of the following charts illustrates one of the four established Act 44 performance metrics,
comparing the goal per fiscal year against the actual performance achieved:
Passengers per Revenue Vehicle Hour is the number of riders per hour that use a transportation vehicle
during its normal operating hours.
Passengers per Revenue Vehicle Hour
9
8
Pssgrs per RVH
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
July 2014 - June 2015
July 2015 - June 2016
July 2016 - June 2017
Goal
2.81
4.93
8.45
Actual*
3.46
5.09
3.69
* As of December 31, 2016
Operating costs per Revenue Vehicle Hour pertains to all the expenses, such as labor, fuel and
maintenance, which are related to operating a transportation vehicle in revenue service during any
given hour.
Operating Cost per Revenue Vehicle Hour
$72.00
$70.00
Op Cost per RVH
$68.00
$66.00
$64.00
$62.00
$60.00
$58.00
$56.00
$54.00
July 2014 - June 2015
July 2015 - June 2016
July 2016 - June 2017
Goal
$69.31
$69.25
$69.79
Actual*
$65.78
$69.23
$60.48
* As of December 31, 2016
Operating Revenue per Revenue Vehicle Hour is the amount of money collected, per hour, through
passenger fares on a transportation vehicle during its normal operating hours.
Operating Revenue per Revenue Vehicle Hour
$4.00
Op Revenue per RVH
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
July 2014 - June 2015
July 2015 - June 2016
July 2016 - June 2017
Goal
$3.41
$3.41
$3.41
Actual*
$1.62
$2.71
$2.47
* As of December 31, 2016
Operating Costs per Passenger are the hourly expenses related to operating a transportation vehicle
evenly distributed across the number of passengers that ride the service during the same hour of time.
Operating Costs per Passenger
$30.00
Op Costs per Pssgr
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
July 2014 - June 2015
July 2015 - June 2016
July 2016 - June 2017
Goal
$24.66
$14.06
$8.26
Actual*
$19.01
$13.61
$16.38
* As of December 31, 2016
Overall, the Carlisle Circulator has consistently met or exceeded the Act 44 performance goals relating to
operating costs per revenue vehicle hour. However, for the remaining measures which are ridershiprelated, the demonstration project has only sporadically met or exceeded Act 44 performance goals
throughout the three year period. Direct ridership (Passengers per Revenue Vehicle Hour) exceeded
goals in the first and second fiscal years but has not met the goal for the current fiscal year. In addition,
due to lower than projected ridership, costs (Operating Costs per Passenger) have increased from the
first and second fiscal years and fare revenue (Operating Revenue per Revenue Vehicle Hour) has
remained low throughout the demonstration period.
Service modifications to the Carlisle Circulator
Over the three-year demonstration period, CAT has implemented various changes to encourage
ridership on the Carlisle Circulator. These modifications have been based on both passenger feedback
and recommendations from the CAT Planning staff.
The Carlisle Circulator initially began operations as three distinct routes – Commuter, Health & Human
Services and Retail/Shopping – each designed to serve a specific local need for transportation. However,
although operating within the same general area, each route was scheduled to run during a different
time of day, providing no service overlap. To address this, the three routes were consolidated into one
“full service” route in February 2015 to provide consistent all-day service to destinations within the
Carlisle Borough area. Also, at this time the Public Assistance Office was added as a timepoint, as were
the Army War College and the Army Heritage Center, at the request of these institutions.
The latest route modifications were implemented in May 2016, in response to local resident feedback
and evaluations of the ridership along the existing route alignment. Service between downtown Carlisle
and the Allen Road Warehouse District were reinstituted to increase accessibility to employment
opportunities for local residents. In addition, service to K-Mart and the new Giant Food Store along
Walnut Bottom Road were added as timepoints. Lastly, due to low usage of the bus stops in the area,
service to the Army War College and the Army Heritage Center was discontinued.
Contributing Factors to Low Ridership Levels
Despite the annual modifications made to the Carlisle Circulator, over time, ridership leveled off and the
route no longer achieved most of the prescribed performance goals.
CAT identified various situations which may have contributed to the lower than anticipated ridership
levels on the Carlisle Circulator:
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An auto-centric environment existing within Carlisle Borough
Dickinson College lacking any restrictions on personal vehicles on campus
Dickinson College operating a van shuttle service to transport students
Free/inexpensive parking being available in the downtown Carlisle area
Each of these items is explored in greater detail in the section below:
An auto-centric environment exists in Carlisle Borough
Due to the fact that the area has not had local bus service (prior to the introduction of the Carlisle
Circulator), driving and walking have emerged as the main forms of transportation for local residents in
Carlisle Borough. It is likely that some individuals who are usually pedestrians now use the Carlisle
Circulator as a faster alternative to walking. However, many individuals who drive as a main source of
travel typically need more incentive beyond transit availability to use it in lieu of a personal vehicle.
Dickinson College lacks any restrictions on personal vehicles on campus
Unlike some institutes of higher education, Dickinson College does not institute a ban on first year
students bringing automobiles onto campus. This effectively means the entire student population can
use a personal vehicle to drive to any destination within Carlisle Borough, reducing the likelihood that
transit would be a highly used alternative for the student population.
Dickinson College operates a van shuttle service to transport students
Prior to and during the entire three year demonstration period the college has provided a free van
shuttle (which operated in much the same manner as a taxi/rideshare service) to transport students to
locations throughout Carlisle Borough. If such a service would have been scaled back or discontinued
with the introduction of local bus service, it is presumed that some of the van shuttle ridership would
have transferred to the Carlisle Circulator, helping to provide a stronger base ridership. Instead, the
continuation of the van shuttle acted as a direct competitor to the circulator route.
Free/inexpensive parking is available in the downtown Carlisle area
Carlisle Borough uses a two-tiered parking meter system in its downtown area; short-term meters allow
for stays of two hours or less and long-term meters allow for parking up to 10 hours. Short-term meters
charge up to $0.25 per 30 minutes, while long-term meters charge $0.25 per hour. In addition, free
parking is available at all meters for time periods of 15 minutes or less.
Due to such low parking rates, it is currently less expensive to park a vehicle all day in the downtown
Carlisle area than it is to purchase a roundtrip fare on the Carlisle Circulator. Such a situation provides
little to no incentive for residents and visitors to utilize alternate transportation methods to travel within
the Borough.