4
RESULTS
1. Literacy and Education
Literacy
Literacy is a major cornerstone of human development and in the fight against poverty. Its influence
spans many sectors - health, social and economic. The children of literate parents are much more likely
to be educated and prepared for a better life and a literate population has better economic prospects
than an illiterate one.
Information on literacy was obtained by asking respondents whether they were able to read and write
with understanding from a list of languages (Urdu, English, Pushto, Balochi, Brahvi, Sindhi), but
excluding Quranic reading, if this was the only response.
1.1 Literacy Rate (10 years and over)
Just over one-quarter (28%) of the population 10
years and over is literate, with males 39% and
females 16%, (23% higher in males compared with
females). There is also similar difference between
males and female literacy in rural (33 vs. 10%) and
urban areas (65 vs. 40%).
Table 5: Literacy Rate for 10 years and above
Literacy rates were highest in Quetta Zarghoon
(59%) and Quetta Chiltan (49%) Towns and least in Kohlu, Jhal Magsi, Musa Khail and Killa Abdullah
and Dera Bugti districts (under 20%). – see map-2.
The 1998 Population Census reported 25% literacy rate for 10 years and over, with 34% males vs. 14%
for females – a difference of 20%9. The results can be compared as the survey used the same codes as
the Census. The findings from MICS suggest that the rates are improving, but only a little. The PIHS
2001 reported a higher result than that of the MICS (36 vs. 28%), but the definitions were not the same.
9
The corresponding census results by province are as follows:
Punjab
males 57.2% vs. females 35.1% with a female/male ratio of 0.61;
Sindh
males 54.5% vs. females 35.8%
ratio 0.66
NWFP
males 51.4% vs. females 18.8%
ratio 0.37
Balochistan males 34.0% vs. females 14.1%
ratio 0.41 and
Pakistan males 54.8% vs. females 32.0%
ratio 0.58
Balochistan MICS 2004
29
1.2 Adult Literacy Rate for 15 years and over
About one-fourth (27%) of the population of Balochistan aged 15 years and over is literate, with a
disparity between males and females (38% vs. 13%). Whereas there is only a minor difference between
the literacy rates of 10 and 15 years for Balochistan (i.e. 28 vs.27% respectively), the rate for 15-24 year
olds is much higher (36%). Further, this 15-24 year old group is much more sensitive to recent change
and reflects the effects of education on literacy. The information for literacy rates of 10 and 15 years and
over will be useful mainly for longer-term results. .
The age distribution for literacy reflects the positive trend of increasing rates during the past decades
(Figure 6). It would appear that in the younger age groups (10-14 years of age); female literacy rates are
starting to catch up to those of males, with a difference of less than 10%. However the flattening of the rates
in the younger age groups is a disturbing feature, suggesting that any literacy targets in the 80% range or
higher will be difficult to reach based on the current situation. The apparent improvement in literacy rates
is influenced by demography with younger groups more likely to be literate. The graph also allows an
overview of the age-specific literacy rates. This is partly a reflection of lower literacy rates in older people
10. Key age groups for monitoring progress are 10 and 15 years plus. In addition, the 15-24 years range
is recommended for the MDG’s and Education for All (EFA).
Figure 6: Literacy Rate by Age - Balochistan MICS 2004
10
Further research might examine rates by district according to age groups.
30
Balochistan MICS 2004
Male-female differences in Literacy rates.
Achievement of gender parity in education is a key MDG and PRSP goal. Looking at each identified
district for the 10+ years group (Figure 7), the “gap” (in yellow on the graph) between male and female
literacy rates varies from 15% in Gwadar to 32% in Pishin. The relative difference is even more striking,
for example 175% in Dera Bugti11.
Figure 7 Literacy Rates Balochistan Districts: Males and Females 10+ year
Ranked from Highest to Lowest Rates for Males
11
(14)*100/((14+2)/2)= 1400/8 = 175%
Balochistan MICS 2004
31
Both male and female literacy rates seem to be greater comparing the 15-24 years group with the 10 years
plus, as shown by a general shift to the upper right part of the graph shown below (in the graph each
district result is represented by a point). However, there is no apparent closing of the gap between male
and female rates, as shown by results approaching the central diagonal. This finding should consider the
current state of literacy of younger adults, especially according to sex.
Figure 8: Male and Female Literacy Rates by Districts and Age Group
32
Balochistan MICS 2004
Changes in Literacy Rates since the Census
It is useful to consider in more detail the changes in literacy rates Table 6: Literacy Rate (10yrs+) changes
since the Census 1998
since the census, both total and by gender.
Balochistan is 3% (25 to 27%). The absolute change for males is
5%, with only 2% for females. Moreover the percent change for
males and females12 (13%) are nearly the same.
The estimates for literacy rate in the MICS, are 28.3 +/1.8 or 26.4
to 30.2, based on a 95% confidence interval due to a sample being
done. Hence the improvement since the Census, although
relatively small, is statistically significant. For districts, these
range averages from 6.0 to 8.0; hence comparisons by district
require caution in interpretation (see Annex E on confidence
intervals for more details).
12
Percent change for males (39-34) ./. 34 * 100
Balochistan MICS 2004
33
Map 3: Percent of Children aged 5-9 years enrolled in Primary School
(excluding Katchis) Balochistan MICS 2004
40% - 47%
30% - 33%
20% - 29%
Under 20%
40 to 50%
Primary School Net Enrollment 5-9 years
20 to 30%
Under 20%
Quetta - Chilton
47
Sibi
29
Kohlu
17
Quetta - Zarghoon
47
Killa Saifullah
28
Chaghai
17
Ziarat
42
Awaran
24
Jafarabad
17
BALOCHISTAN
24
Kharan
16
Lasbela
23
Khuzdar
15
30 to 40%
Mastung
33
Loralai
23
Zhob
13
Kech
33
Gwadar
21
Killa Abdullah
12
Panjgur
31
Jhal Magsi
21
Musa Khel
9
Kalat
30
Barkhan
20
Dera Bugti
3
Bolan
30
Pishin
30
Note that “more favourable” is based on comparison with other districts. It does not necessarily
mean an acceptable result such as in terms of targets for MDG’s or PRSP.
34
Balochistan MICS 2004
Education
Universal access to basic education and the achievement of primary education by Balochistan’s children is
an extremely important goal and embraces those set by PRSP and MDG. Education is a vital prerequisite
for combating poverty, empowering women, protecting children from hazardous and exploitative labour,
promoting human rights, protecting the environment, and influencing population growth. Hence the level
of education is a key indicator for devolution planning.
In Balochistan, about two thirds of the population
(68%) 10 years and over have never been to school;
and half of the population aged 10-14 or 15-19 years.
For those aged 15-19 years, Dera Bugti has the most
never enrolled (84%) and Quetta-Zarghoon the least
(23%). (See technical note).
Table 7: Education Summaries
In Balochistan 77% of the population 10 years and
over have not completed primary school or higher.
This is about the same for those aged 10-14 as many
are still attending. This decreases to 64% for those
aged 15-19 years. In Dera Bugti and Musa Khel, 8687% of those aged 15-19 did not complete primary
school or higher.
For all results, there are major differences between
males and females, averaging 10-20% in favour of
males.
Table 8: Net Primary School Enrolment
1.3 Net Primary School Enrolment Rate
(NER)13
About one quarter (24%) of children at primary
school age (5-9 years) in Balochistan were enrolled in
primary school (excluding katchi class) during the
year 2002-200314. This net enrolment rate is less than the 32% reported in the PIHS 2001. Enrolment
varies greatly by area (urban 42% vs. rural 20%). There are major differences among districts ranging
from a high of 47% in the two towns of Quetta and 42% in Ziarat district to under 15% in Zhob (13%),
Killa Abdullah (12%), Musa Khel (9%) and Dera Bugti (3%) – see Map 3 on the opposite page.
For Balochistan, there is an 8% absolute difference in enrolment rates for boys (28%) as compared with
girls (20%) and a similar gap in rural areas (24 vs. 16%). In urban areas, the gap is 46% boys vs. 39%
girls.
The estimates for NER in the MICS, are 23.8% +/1.9 or 21.9 to 25.7%, based on a 95% confidence interval
(due to a sample being done). For districts, these ranges average from 4.0 to 8.0; hence comparisons by
district require caution in interpretation. There are statistically significant differences between districts
in the highest group compared with the lowest, but there is overlap in the middle group (see Annex F
on confidence intervals for more details).
13
Definition: The number of children aged 5-9 years who are enrolled at primary school (during the 2002-3 school years) divided
by the total number of children aged 5-9 in the population, expressed as a percentage. This excludes enrolment in Katchi class.
14
This assumes that missing values are not enrolled. If missing were treated as missing, the Percent enrolled is 27.2% (3.4% higher
than the 23.8% reported). In Balochistan, there was 12.3% with missing values; in Pishin this was 63%, Ziarat 36%, Kalat 50% and
Chaghai 45%. For these districts, if missing were treated as missing, their results for NER are much higher than expected. Also,
the percent of missing was greatest by far in children aged 5 and 6 years (ages less likely to be enrolled). Hence preference is given
to assuming missing as not enrolled – see technical notes for more details).
Balochistan MICS 2004
35
Figure 9: % Net Enrolment Rate - Girls and Boys
Girls higher enrolment
than Boys
Boys higher enrolment
than Girls
The graph above shows that while many districts have 10% or more boys vs. girls enrolled in Primary
School, some are within 5% and two have a higher percent of girls enrolled than boys. Due to the nature
of the sample, where the statistical confidence interval may range from 10% or more, it is not accurate
to consider specific districts in this description. The pattern is helpful for assessing the current situation
and for monitoring purposes15.
1.4 Net Primary School Attendance Rate16
Attendance rates for children of primary school
age (5-9 years) in Balochistan are almost
identical to that of enrolment. Almost all
children attend school for most of the academic
year (at least 4 months) and on a regular basis
(most days of the week), although a high
percentage of missing values especially in Killa
Saifullah , Kohlu, Dera Bugti and Nasirabad
suggest caution in the interpretation of these
results.
Table 9: Net Primary School Attendance Rate (of
those enrolled)
Hence, enrolment at a primary school almost invariably means regular attendance; even in those areas
where the percent enrolled is low.
15For
example, it might be useful to consider the number of districts with the absolute difference between girls and boys’ enrollment
within 5%. The MICS has shown this has occurred in 5 of 27 districts – a future goal might be at least half (i.e. 13-14) or even more.
This will reflect changes occurring throughout the whole province, rather than in certain districts.
16The
36
percentage of enrolled children aged 5-9 years who attend Primary School.
Balochistan MICS 2004
1.5 Gross Primary School Enrolment Rate (GER)17
Gross enrolment rates are often favoured because
they lend themselves to regular data collection from
schools, as compared with net enrolment rates
which require age and grade specificity which is not
necessarily available from school records. Gross
enrolment rates in primary school age (5-9 years) in
primary school age (5-9 years) in Balochistan were
46% during the year 2002-2003. This compares with
62% found in the PIHS 2001-2.
Table 10: Gross Primary School Enrolment Rate
Gross enrolment is much higher in urban as compared with rural (74% vs.40%) and in boys compared
with girls (56% vs. 35%). There are major differences among districts from a high in Quetta Chiltan
(92%), Ziarat (80%) and Quetta Zarghoon (79%) to fewer than 20% in Musa Khel and Dera Bugti
Districts. Districts with a higher level of gross school enrolment also tend to have a higher ratio of girls.
The difference between the gross and net enrolment ratios indicates that there are over- age children in
primary school i.e aged 10-17 years. Table 11 below shows that of those enrolled at school, 86% of 10 year olds,
32% of 14 year olds and 12% of 17 year olds are still in primary school.
Table 11: Percent of 10-17 years enrolled at Primary School by School Grad
17
The number of children aged 5-17 years who are enrolled at primary school (during the 2002-3 school years) divided by the total
number of children aged 5-9 in the population, expressed as a percentage.
Balochistan MICS 2004
37
1.6 Children reaching Grade 5 and Dropouts during Primary School years
Children reaching grade 5 of primary education is the percentage of a cohort of pupils who enrolled in
the first grade of primary education in a given school-year and who eventually reach grade 5. Its
purpose is to assess the “holding power” and internal efficiency of an education system. Conversely,
it indicates the magnitude of drop-out before grade 5. This indicator is of particular interest because the
completion of at least four years of schooling is commonly considered a pre-requisite for a sustainable
level of literacy.
The ideal way to obtain a precise assessment of educational wastage is through the use of the true cohort
method. This involves either a tracer (longitudinal) study to monitor the progress of a selected cohort
of pupils through the education cycle, or through a retrospective study in order to retrace the flows of
pupils through the grades in past years. The true cohort method, however, is costly and timeconsuming, and it requires good and reliable school history with information on individual pupils. For
this reason, this method is not yet widely used.
The MICS methodology entails a follow up of a child from one school year to the next and cumulates
the results for the whole school cycle.
It was not possible to derive reliable results due to a problem with one of the questions relating to school
enrolment in the year prior to that of the survey. For brief details please refer to the technical notes and
for further details to the technical volume.
1.7 Public School Attendance Rate
Table 12: Primary Public School Attendance
Of all children enrolled in Primary School, 89.5%
attended a Government School, 10.2% a Private
school and 0.3% a Deeni Madrissa. Attendance at
a Government school was much higher in rural
areas (95%) as compared with urban (78%). More
than half of the districts in Balochistan had an attendance of over 90% in a Government School and the
lowest in Quetta Zarghoon (61%).
1.8 Adequate physical access to school
Any school within the ward or village was
reported by 73% of households (85% in
urban and 70% in rural area). This rose to
84% for any school within 2 km. However,
9% of households had a school more than 5
km or 1 hour away, mainly in rural areas. In
Zhob, Musa Khel, Dera Bugti, Kohlu and Sibi
more than 20% of households had a school
this far away.
Table 13: Households with Access to School
1.9 Change of school
Change of school was uncommon in most of Balochistan, occurring in 2.9% of children aged 5-17 years,
4.3% in urban and 2.3% in rural areas. This included the change from one public school to another
(1.9%) and from public school to private (0.6%). In higher age groups, such as 15 to 17 years, this change
increased to approximately 6%, but this was still mainly from one public school to another.
38
Balochistan MICS 2004
1.10 Secondary School Enrolment
Table 14: Net Secondary School Enrolment
Net Enrolment
In Balochistan, about one in ten (11%) children aged 10-12
years are enrolled in Middle School (grades 6-8), with urban
greater than rural (22 vs.8%). While there is little gender
difference in urban areas, the comparison in rural areas (10%
male vs. 5% female) is overshadowed by the overall low
values.
Quetta-Zarghoon Town has the highest net enrolment in
middle school (23%), followed by Panjgur, Quetta-Chiltan
Town, Sibi, Kech, Kalat and Mastung (range 16 to 19%).
Districts with enrolment less than 5% include Musa Khel,
Chaghai, Killa Abdullah and Dera Bugti. (See Summary
Table-5, at Annex-J)
Comparison of boys and girls shows that in most districts the
percent of boys enrolled are greater than that for girls (see
graph where each district result is a point).
Figure 10: Net Enrolment in Middle School by Gender
Differences range from 2% in favour of girls
(Kech and Sibi) to equality (Quetta-Zarghoon
Town) to 10% or more in favour of boys (Jhal
Magsi and Jaffarabad)18.
Net enrolment for those aged 13-14 in Matric
(grades 9-10) is 6% and for those aged 15-17 in
Higher Secondary (grades 11-12) is 4% for
Balochistan. Only one in 50 females of the
required age from rural areas are enrolled in
Matric and 1 in 100 enrolled in Higher
Secondary Schools.
18Care
is required in interpretation, as the sample results have a range about each estimate (up to 5%, depending on the sample
sizes).
Balochistan MICS 2004
39
Gross Enrolment
Gross enrolment in Middle School Percent of children
aged 5-17 years enrolled in Middle School, (with total
number of 5-9 year olds as the denominator) is about onequarter (28%) for Balochistan children aged 5-17 years
(Table 15). As for net enrolment, urban rates are higher
than rural (56 vs. 22%); further, gender differences were
found only in rural areas. For net enrolment, Quetta –
Zarghoon Town has the highest gross enrolment in
middle school (54%), followed by Kech and Quetta –
Chiltan Town (range 46 to 52%). Districts with gross
enrolment less than 15% include Khuzdar, Killa Abdullah,
Dera Bugti and Musa Khel. (See Summary table-5, at
Annex-J)
Figure 11: Gross Enrolment in Middle
School by Gender
Table 15: Gross Enrolment Rate in
Secondary School Enrolment
Comparison of boys and girls shows that in
most districts the percentage of boys enrolled
are greater than that for girls (see graph where
each district result is a point). (Figure 11)
Differences range from 2-9% in favour of girls
(Kech and Sibi) to equality (Quetta – Chiltan).
The reverse i.e 20% or more in favour of boys
was found to be in Ziarat Nasirabad,
Jaffarabad and Kohlu20
Matric (grades 9-10) is 23% and for Higher
Secondary (grades 11-12) is 4% for
Balochistan following a similar pattern as for
net enrolment.
19
Percent of children aged 5-17 years enrolled in Middle School, with total number of 5-9 year olds as the denominator.
Care is required in interpretation, as the sample results have a range about each estimate (up to 5%, depending on the sample sizes).
20
40
Balochistan MICS 2004
1.11 Holistic review of educational status
A major problem in the understanding of educational status in any population is determining the
relationship between the age of the child and school grade, as well as a focus on the education rather
than the child’s situation. Three major issues covered by the MICS* need to be assessed in concert:
(1)
Has the child ever been enrolled (or attended) school?
(2)
If so, what is the child’s level of schooling and
(3)
Has the child dropped out of school?
One way of approaching all these issues is to develop a simple combination matrix.
Table 16:Age and School levels: Total Population of Balochistan
An example for Balochistan follows.
The table shows the weighted number of children aged 5 to 17 years in Balochistan based on survey
results. These weighted numbers represent the actual population from which the sample is selected.
The total is an underestimate, as the sample was based on the census population, but this can be suitably
adjusted. Some results (which are in brackets) are probably errors of data collection (either age group
and/or school level). However, these number 795, which amounts to only 0.04% of the total population.
The table allows any choice of combinations for child age groups relating to net or gross enrolment
never enrolled and dropouts – previously enrolled, but now not enrolled.
For example, in Balochistan, the net enrolment rate is 216,366 (number of 5-9 year olds enrolled in
primary school) *100 /916021 (total number of 5-9 year olds, excluding those missing). The gross
primary enrolment rate is 427523 (total 5-17 year olds enrolled in primary school) *100 / 916021 (total
number of 5-9 year olds).
The same process can be applied to secondary school levels.
*A fourth crucial issue - quality of education - cannot be addressed by the MICS, but might be considered in future surveys (such
as extending the question of literacy from a younger age, such as from 7 years.
Balochistan MICS 2004
41
The percent never enrolled or dropouts (who were enrolled but no longer attend school) can be applied
to the respective or combined age groups.
For a clearer presentation, three added tables are shown with the total percent applied to rows (where
the denominator or 100% is applied to the school levels) or in columns (where the denominator or 100%
is applied to the age groups levels) or for total population (see tables for Balochistan below).
Table 17: Percent of Enrolments by School Level and Age Groups
42
Balochistan MICS 2004