Urban Growth in China:
Challenges and Prospects
Karen C. Seto
Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences
and
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Urbanization in a global context
• >50% of world population
• 30% urban in 1950, estimated 60% urban in 2030
• 19 megacities > 10 million
• 22 cities with 5 with 10 million
• 370 cities with 1 to 5 million
• 440 cities with 0.5 to 1 million
• Highest growth rates in medium-sized cities (1-5 million)
Urban Population as Percentage of Total Population
100
90
80
70
Percent
60
1970
2000
2025
50
40
30
20
10
0
Africa
Asia
Centra America
Europe
North America
South America
Source: United Nations, 2004. World Population Prospects
Forecasted Megacities, 2015
Sources: Kraas, Univ. of Cologne and United Nations, 2004
Crisis or Opportunity?
Cities as problems
Cities as solutions
• Environmental degradation
• Loss of agricultural land
• Pressure on natural resources
(energy, water, land)
• Inadequate housing
• Consumption patterns
• Urban sprawl
• Social alienation
• Driving forces in economic
growth
• Efficient use of infrastructure
• Delivery of health services
• Sanitation
• Education
• “Saving land for nature”
• Efficient natural resource use
• Creative social capital
Urbanization trends in China
• One quarter of world’s 500 largest urban areas in China
• 2050: China’s urban population increase by 300-700 mil.
• 2002 urbanization rate: 36%
• 2050 urbanization rate: 70%
• US (2000): 77%
• Japan (2000): 79%
• Germany (2000): 88%
Comparative Urbanization Trends
Population, 2000
China
US
> 10 million
3
0
> 1 million
34
9
500,000-1 mill
44
16
200,000-500,000
159
51
Sources: China Population Yearbook and US Census
Comparative Urbanization Trends
2000
EMR
Shanghai
10,840,000 18,420,000 New York
Beijing
12,780,000 15,200,000 Los Angeles
Tianjin
5,096,000 9,848,000 Chicago
Wuhan
4,488,000 7,182,000 Houston
Guangzhou 4,154,000 10,156,000 Philadelphia
Shenyang
3,981,000 6,730,000 Phoenix
Chongqing 3,934,000 7,577,000 San Diego
Nanjing
2,822,000 6,238,000 Dallas
Harbin
2,672,000 9,630,000 San Antonio
Xian
2,589,000 5,860,000 Detroit
Chengdu
2,341,000 9,901,000 San Jose
2000
EMR
8,008,000 22,000,000
3,694,000 18,080,000
2,896,000 9,312,000
1,954,000 4,407,000
1,517,000 5,952,000
1,321,000 3,072,000
1,223,000 2,780,000
1,188,000 4,802,000
1,144,000 1,538,000
951,000 5,467,000
911,000 6,816,000
Sources: China Population Yearbook and US Census
Policy Reforms and Urban Growth
in China
• Began in 1978
• Rural-urban migration
• Decentralization
• Rapid urban growth
• Open-door, FDI
• Agricultural expansion &
intensification
• Agricultural reforms
• GDP, 1978-2002: 8-14%
• Land-use rights
• Household registration
system (hukou)
• Work unit (danwei)
• Increase in income
- vehicles
- housing
- changes in diet
China’s Urban and Rural Population, 1950-2030
100
90
80
Percentage of Total Population
70
60
Urban
Rural
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years
Structure of China’s Economy, 1970-2000
100
90
80
Percentage of GDP
70
60
Services
Industry
Agriculture
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years
Structure of China’s Labor Force, 1970-2000
100
90
80
Percentage of Employment
70
60
Services
Industry
Agriculture
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years
Land-use trends in China
Land use
1990
2000
Change
(1000 ha)
% Change
Cropland
138,152.3
141,144.2
2,991.90
2.17
Paddy
35,508.9
35,650.2
141.30
0.40
Dryland
102,643.4
105494
2850.6
2.78
Forests
138314.4
137595.5
-718.9
-0.52
Grassland
306,356.3
302,919.5
-3,436.80
-1.12
Urban
3322.2
4145.4
823.2
24.78
Unused land
200,501.9
200,121.7
-380.2
-0.19
Source: Hanqin Tian, Auburn University, unpublished data
• 1980s: Focus on coastal areas “Open” cities, Special Economic Zones
• 1990s: Attention shifts inland, “Go West” program
Chengdu
Pearl River Delta
Why Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province?
• 1988 - 2005 real GDP growth: 8-18%
• Major agricultural region and national leader in
production of:
- lychees, bananas, pond fish, sugar cane
• Special Economic Zones
• Geographic proximity to Hong Kong
• Cultural ties to overseas Chinese investors
Urban Land, Pearl River Delta (km2)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Seto et al., in prep
2002
2001
2000
1999
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1985
1980
1974
1973
0
Residential Floor Space, Guangdong Province,1980-2000
urban
rural
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
8.55 12.13 16.24 16.97 19.27
14.87 17.39 20.83 22.32 23.11
Source: Statistical Bureau of Guangdong, 2002
Main Indicators of Transportation Services, Guangdong Province
3000
100000
2500
80000
60000
1500
(000s)
Length (km)
2000
Highways
Motor Vehicles
40000
1000
20000
500
0
0
1988
1990
1995
2000
Year
Source: Statistical Bureau of Guangdong, 2004
Agricultural
Land Loss
10 Cities,
Urbanization
andFor
agricultural
land1990-1996
loss
Agricultural Land
Agricultural Land Loss
Source: Seto et al., 2000. Nature.
Carbon Emissions Associated with
Urban Growth
Urban Land Use Change
PRD
Source: Dye, 2000. ACRS
Chengdu, Sichuan Province
• Administrative, cultural center with 2500 year history
• City: 2.5 million. Municipality: 11 million
• Fertile plain - triple cropping system
• 1950s, 1960s: Industrial center
• City chosen for investment
Urban Growth in Chengdu
300% increase in
urban land
non-urban
stable urban
1978 - 1988
1988 - 1991
1991 - 1995
2002
2000
1995
1991
1988
1978
1995 - 2000
2000 - 2002
Drivers
of
Urban
Growth
Socioeconomic Changes
Foreign and domestic investment
Policy incentives
Economic opportunities and migration
Increases in disposable income
Implications
of Chengdu
Urbanization
Conclusions:
• Energy demand and composition
• Dietary patterns: from grain- to meat-based diet
• Traditional familial relations and housing arrangements
• Disparity between urban and rural; coast and interior
• Increase in disposable incomes
• Agricultural land loss
• Water and air pollution
• Greenhouse gas emissions
Challenges for sustainable urban growth
• Requires Chinese, not Western, model
• Integrated, hierarchical, multi-user public transportation
• Increase density and land-use efficiency
• Intra- and intercity economic disparities
• Loss of most productive agricultural land
• Changes in urban lifestyles: diet, energy demand
Prospects for sustainable urban growth
• Post-hoc analyses of regional plans
• Increased public transportation
• Increased density and land-use efficiency
• Leap-frog technology: energy efficiency
• Multi-unit housing and multi-use zoning