!"#$%&'()*+",#-&)#
."'()*+"#/&#-')0%'1#
21*3')"4#536'()#/&#7&0%#
2&36'89
!"#$%&!&'"(()%%&***
Conclusions
+,)#"-$&./"01$&)%&02-&,)0$"(3&*-&$44%&"05&6,27%3
! 8)0-$(&/"%&4$$0&)06,9$0.$5&4:&"&-$(#)0"-$5&;"&<)0"=&>9%%)"0&"05&?,"%@"0&
A2,."02$%=&"&.2,5&B".)6).&"05&"&7"(#&?-,"0-).3
! C/$&$(9D-)20&26&E/$A$,9./&"05&&F212%,26&",-$($5&G$-&%-($"#&D"--$(0%&./"01)01&
-/$&02(#",&7)0-$(&7$"-/$(&"(2905&-/$&02(-/$(0&/$#)%D/$($
!
C/$&7$%-$(0&D2(-)20&26&-/$&HE&)%&$ID$()$0.)01&$I-($#$&%-2(#)0$%%&-/"-&)%&,)@$,:&
-2&.20-)09$&-/(291/29-&-/$&($#")05$(&26&%D()01&7)-/&#"%%)A$&%027D".@&)0.($"%)01&
6,225&5"#"1$&()%@3
!
C/$&($%-&26&-/$&HE&&/"A$&/"5&5(291/-&,)@$&.205)-)20%&7)-/&%/2(-&%-2(#%&2..9(()01&
)06($K9$0-,:&49-&."9%)01&5"#"1$3&C/)%&,$"5%&-2&"&/)1/$(&()%@&26&6,"%/&6,225)01&"05&
/"),&5"#"1$&)0&%D()01&"05&$"(,:&%9##$(
!
C/$&./"01$&26&-/$&BLM=&.)-:&"05&49),5)01&D,"00)01&"05&,201&-$(#&1,24",&
2(1"0)N"-)20&D,"0%&7),,&.($"-$&"#D,$&2DD2(-90)-:&62(&0$7&)0%9("0.$&2DD2(-90)-)$%&
7/)./&7),,&2..9(&59()01&"&-)#$OD$()25&26&)0.($"%$5&905$(%-"05)01&26&.9(($0-&
.,)#"-$&.205)-)20%3
!
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning
Media
J
Long-term forces
Short-term forces
Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO)
La Niña/El Niño
North Atlantic oscillation
Arctic oscillation
Volcanic activity
Trends
Long-term
forces have
reached a
tipping point
! Increased storms, hurricanes & blizzards
! Shifts in precipitation
! More temperature extremes
! Monsoon strength changed
Sectors affected
Agriculture
Energy
Insurance
Government
Infrastructure
Tourism
Outcomes
Profits
& Loss
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
!
“Extreme Floods May Be The New Normal”
Erika Bolstad – ClimateWire August 18, 2016
Billion-dollar weather disasters
are becoming more frequent and
floods are the most common and
widespread events.
In 2016 alone, catastrophic
once-in-500-year and
once-in-1,000-year rain events
flooded West Virginia, Texas,
Oklahoma, South Carolina
and Louisiana.
#$$%&'(()))*+,-,*+.//*0.1(23443.+&(
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
"
Clouds, the debris from large
volcanoes, and man-made aerosols
can reflect back sunlight and
change rainfall patterns.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
5
North Atlantic volcanoes
change the jetstream
over the Atlantic.
North Pacific volcanoes
change the jetstream
over the Pacific.
Strong
Icelandic
Low
B2%)-)A$&<?M
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
6
Moderate polar volcanoes
and the second year after a
large tropical volcano puts
enough cooling debris into
the air to alter polar jet
streams and storm tracks.
Over the past decade, we have
seen volcanic eruptions in
Russia, Alaska and Iceland
create strange winter weather
patterns.
http://climate.ncsu.edu/secc_edu/images/jet_streams_Polar&Sub.jpg
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
7
Volcanic debris can cool large pools of ocean water.
The colder water alters air temperatures and weather patterns.
" A large cold pool under Kamchatka, Russia correlates with less wet,
Marine Polar winds and a dry West.
" A large cold pool under Alaska correlates with more Marine Polar winds and
winter and spring floods in the West.
" A large cold pool under Iceland correlates with less dry Polar winds
and more heatwaves and southeastern droughts.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
A
PDO
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
50 year cycle
The patterns of tropical marine air and winds are shaped
by the El Niño/La Niña cycle and MJOs.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
B
The long-term Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO) turned positive
in1995.
The Gulf stream flows faster.
The North Atlantic warms.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
Warm AMO
Cool AMO
The warm phase of the AMO diverts precipitation
from the Gulf, Great Plains and Prairie Provinces.
This increases the risk of heat waves, droughts and
wildfires. © Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com CC
When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
turned positive in 1995, the North Atlantic became
warmer.
CoolAtlantic
Atlantic hurricanes doubled in number, go farther
north and, on average, carry more moisture.
CoolAtlanticWarmAtlantic
WarmAtlantic
courtesy:NOAA/GOES
© Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com
12
The PDO
There is a new paradigm in the Pacific –
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation tipped from a positive
to a negative trend in 2006.
Positive
(warm phase) PDO
CB76ICBBA
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Each phase lasts 20-30 years
Negative
(cool phase) PDO
HJJ6I%=9&9+$
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
C!
The PDO’s impact on precipitation
Losers
Winners
" Midwest US
" STRONGER MONSOON:
" California/Southwest US
Northern & Central China
"
WEAKER MONSOON:
Southern China
"
STRONGER MONSOON:
India
"
"
WEAKER MONSOON: Pakistan
STRONGER MONSOON:
Japan
"
WEAKER MONSOON: North
" Brazil
" Southern Africa
" STRONGER MONSOON:
Eastern Australia
Korea
" Andes Republics/
Southern Argentina
" East Africa
" WEAKER MONSOON:
Western Australia
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
C"
Tropical moisture hits the US as tropical storms/ hurricanes, if wind conditions are favorable or
atmospheric rivers if they are not.
Both cause flooding from heavy rains but tropical storms cause more surge/coastal
flooding.
courtesyNOAA
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
15
The Negative PDO also creates more extreme weather,
particularly more spring storms and flooding.
©EvelynBrowningGarriss/BrowningMedia
16
17
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf.
We did have a short weak La Niña that began in late
summer.
It lasted 5 seasons (7 months) halted in January
and was declared over in early February.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
18
#$$%'((3=3*,.4:823/*9-:(.:=I9T%9=$3&9(,438/$9(S.=9,/&$&(9+&.(,:==9+$(U9+&.;$/2V9+&.I,%,;%4:89*
" So far, the El Niño/La Niña
conditions are the most accurate way to
project tropical climate factors.
" Currently the Tropical Pacific
is neutral
" Scientists give a 51% chance of
warm El Niño conditions
developing in autumn.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
CB
The El Niño area is divided into 4 zones
with different zones steering
atmospheric rivers into different areas.
0.0ºC
• If Niño 3.4 is warm it steers
atmospheric river flooding (Pineapple
Expresses) onto the West Coast.
0.8ºC
0.3ºC
0.9ºC
• If Niño 1+2 is warm, it steers
atmospheric river flooding into Peru and
Texas (Mayan Express).
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
Premier
Edition
If the Tropical Atlantic is warm and the Pacific is neutral,
there is a high chance of hurricane and surge flooding hitting the US.
If El Niños develop,
there are fewer Atlantic hurricanes
and more Pacific hurricanes and
monsoon flooding.
Experts expect a potentially busy
summer Atlantic tropical storm
season that fades through fall.
#$$%'(()))*
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
HC
Tropical climate factors can increase flood risk by:
• Increasing the wet Marine Tropical winds,
• Creating strong ocean storms that have
heavy coastal surges
• Driving warm temperatures inland and
precipitating heavy snow melts
and river run-offs.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
22
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media
23
© US Geological Survey
24
April27,2017
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2016.html
VOLCANOESHAVEBEENTHEWILDCARD.
Thewinter-longeruptionshavecoatedmuchoftheoceansurfacewith
25
coolingsulfurwhichreflectssunlight
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
At the same time the ending of La Niña conditions in late January allowed tropical
atmospheric rivers to hit California, delivering a double whammy of rain.
courtesyNOAA
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
26
Ending At Midnight - March 13, 2017
LEGEND
Capacity
(TAF)
Historical
Average
California is now going
to expand maintenance
and repair,
% of Capacity | % of Historical
Average
Trinity Lake
80% | 106%
Lake Shasta
76% | 99%
Lake Oroville
Folsom Lake
84% | 116%
42% | 72%
New Melones Lake
North
Sierra/Trinity
146%/149%
Don Pedro Reservoir
70% | 113%
92% | 128%
Lake McClure
77% | 145%
San Luis Reservoir
99% | 114%
Pine Flat Reservoir
70% | 129%
Millerton Lake
55% | 81%
Lake Perris
44% | 53%
Central Sierra
176%/183%
Southern Sierra
171%/179%
Castaic Lake
92% | 105%
Graph Updated 03/14/2017 10:15 AM
#$$%'(()))*3+S=/&$=:,$:=9=9%.=$,/=-*.=0(
)))*3+S=/&$=:,$:=9=9%.=$,/=-*.=0(
#$$%'((,-9,*)/$9=*,/*0.1(,-9,/%%(&+.)/%%(&)9X*/,$3.+
Between full reservoirs
and a heavy snowpack,
California’s surface water
woes are gone for this
year but spring flooding is
at a high risk
H7
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
28
The Gulf Stream is strong and
swift in the Atlantic, creating high
temperatures off the Gulf and
East Coast.
" The warm tropical waters
indicates higher summer
temperatures
" Warm Atlantic waters correlate
with springtime flooding in the
Midwest and dry summer
conditions in the Midwest.
"
Q:4SE@$=9/8
#$$%'(()))*.&%.*+.//*0.1(-/$/(&&$(/+.8/4K(HJC7(/+.8+30#$*"*C!*HJC7*03S*EE
*
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
HB
This spring the prevailing westerlies have carried the Pacific cold towards the east.
When it meets hot, wet Atlantic air, it produces unusually heavy storms.
Temperature Departures
April 3-17, 2017
Temperature Departures Last 3
months, ending March 31, 2017
Even with the Nor’easter, most of the US remains unusually warm, largely
due to the high Atlantic temperatures.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
30
Y
+
+
+ A moderate Russian volcanic eruption
will make this region colder
© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss
!C
!"##$%&'()#$*($)+'$,-.-$/012342/5
NEO194K+EP=.)+3+0EQ/==3&&(P=.)+3+0ER9-3/
67"8*9:;$#)"7<#$:(=$+>77*9:('#$*($)+'$,-.-$/012342/?
NEO194K+EP=.)+3+0EQ/==3&&(P=.)+3+0ER9-3/
,-.-$@*()'7$.)"7<$A(#>7'=$!"##$67'(=#B$/012342/5
NEO194K+EP=.)+3+0EQ/==3&&(P=.)+3+0ER9-3/
Human construction, pollution,
and energy use makes the climate
change even more extreme.
http://eetd.lbl.gov/HeatIsland/HighTemps
© Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com
!5
Conclusions
+,)#"-$&./"01$&)%&02-&,)0$"(3&*-&$44%&"05&6,27%3
! 8)0-$(&/"%&4$$0&)06,9$0.$5&4:&"&-$(#)0"-$5&;"&<)0"=&>9%%)"0&"05&?,"%@"0&
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! C/$&$(9D-)20&26&E/$A$,9./&"05&&F212%,26&",-$($5&G$-&%-($"#&D"--$(0%&./"01)01&
-/$&02(#",&7)0-$(&7$"-/$(&"(2905&-/$&02(-/$(0&/$#)%D/$($
!
C/$&7$%-$(0&D2(-)20&26&-/$&HE&)%&$ID$()$0.)01&$I-($#$&%-2(#)0$%%&-/"-&)%&,)@$,:&
-2&.20-)09$&-/(291/29-&-/$&($#")05$(&26&%D()01&7)-/&#"%%)A$&%027D".@&)0.($"%)01&
6,225&5"#"1$&()%@3
!
C/$&($%-&26&-/$&HE&&/"A$&/"5&5(291/-&,)@$&.205)-)20%&7)-/&%/2(-&%-2(#%&2..9(()01&
)06($K9$0-,:&49-&."9%)01&5"#"1$3&C/)%&,$"5%&-2&"&/)1/$(&()%@&26&6,"%/&6,225)01&"05&
/"),&5"#"1$&)0&%D()01&"05&$"(,:&%9##$(
!
C/$&./"01$&26&-/$&BLM=&.)-:&"05&49),5)01&D,"00)01&"05&,201&-$(#&1,24",&
2(1"0)N"-)20&D,"0%&7),,&.($"-$&"#D,$&2DD2(-90)-:&62(&0$7&)0%9("0.$&2DD2(-90)-)$%&
7/)./&7),,&2..9(&59()01&"&-)#$OD$()25&26&)0.($"%$5&905$(%-"05)01&26&.9(($0-&
.,)#"-$&.205)-)20%3
!
© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning
Media
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BrowningClimate.com
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