[Spine] 14. ALLEN S. BROWN (CABINET NOTES, 4/12/51 to 27/3/52) PERSONAL (No.3) [Page 1] 1 A S Brown Prime Ministers Department Canberra ___________ [Note Pages 2–32 in this notebook concern Cabinet meetings that took place in 1951 and were released in 2002.] [Page 33] [9 January 1952] Cabinet. 9.1.52. Cabinet discussed the question of replacing Senator Nash – in my absence. Dutch New Guinea. The Minister reported on the present situation as to Dutch New Guinea. Suggestion that documented story on Manus should be prepared. If this comes off the ice we should raise a great deal of public noise and influence the U.S. McBride says we should make case for uniting of W & E. N Guinea under trust arrangements. Submission 196. – Approved. Submission 198 (a) effect of any proposed rec. on finances of territory. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 1 (b) " " " " " " " of C/w. Chairman to be asked to include £7.7.0 per day for sittings of the ctee. Butlin to be considered further overnight. Submission 197. Approved. Cl. 8. to be “stricken from the record”. Submission 168A Till 10.30 am. [Page 34] Submission 195 – Agreed. announcement. P.M. to consult with Sir A. Fadden before McEwen raises question of income tax in N. Territory proposals should come up at an early time. Future taxation policy for primary producers in N.T. Treas. C&H. Territories1. Dev. To be ctee. __________________ Submission 168A. Asks reps to meet sub ctee. Let sub-ctee tell them 29 + 20 Price., interest rate, deposit & Terms of payment. Obligation to keep Austn. shipyards. Mcleay 2 Ask Lloyds to make their man available 3 to assist a firm of chartered accountants – say Smith Johnson or Flack & Flack. McLeay & Spooner to choose a/cts. Same ctee plus Holt to consider Basten report. Cable to Holt telling him & that he is on ctee. – Report on N.W. Development. ‘Chair’ is written above the line. ‘McLeay’ is inserted above the line. 3 ‘as technical collaborator’ is inserted above the line. 1 2 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 2 Korea. The Minister reported on his visit to Korea. Good food. difficult country. special Xmas dinner. cemetery at Pusan – sergeants – decorations at a scale of 20 per 100. – heavy cost paying U.S. for supplies – 32/- per day for rations perhaps 45/- all told including ammunition – a lot of property adjustments necessary in Japan after peace treaty. – everybody in RAAF in Iwakumi regarded as being in Korea but Kure as being in Japan. – high incidence of VD. from Japan – great improvement in anti aircraft of Chinese – Indian casualty clearing station very good – 3rd Batt cld. come back within 3 mths of cease fire. Meteors are working well back from the front. [Page 35] Air Beef. Reads Bureau of Ag. Ec. recommendations – P.M reads Treasury note. McEwen points out that all railways are as uneconomic as the air beef proposals. Approved. J.O. McBride McEwen & P.M. to talk abt this. J.O. Profits – Should it be 2 or 3 years. If we pay £25m. out of £67m. & give everybody the same as last time. Do we want legislation in this session. – Probably – bring proposal to next session. Apples & Pears – Export to the UK. We have ctee. Treas. McB Holt Spooner & McEwen. Tomorrow at 10. am. K Hughes to discuss Olympic. McLeay. Beale. Hasluck Dunk. Jones. Balmain – Kent Hughes. Dept of W&N. Sydney 82 Pitt. St. (Payment of rates on C/w property?) [Page 36] Cabinet – Thursday 2.30 pm & follow on on Friday for Basten report. ➼ Business of the Session Peace Treaty ) National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 3 Pacific Pact ) ? Legislation Fisheries legislation. Sit for max. of 3 wks – aim at 2 wks Meet abt May 2nd = Civil defence bill? Bill about signatures to Lands Acquisition? Defence legislation statement? C.O.R. legislation – Can agreement be made in time. (? Legislation on J.O. Profits – see notes of last meeting). Submission No 200. Wilfred Burchett – reporter in Korea on Communist side. Law department to look into the matter. Approved. We should indicate the substance of what we are proposing to do. Holt to prepare statement. Submission No. 199. Approved. Suggested McCarthy, Treasury, Customs. agreed. McEwen raises the general question of an “incentive price” – govt. may be embarassed by having a formal cost of production price. Reps of industry to be allowed to sit in on it but not take part. (Copy for Sen O’Sullivan of decision 33.). Submission No 201. Approved. Submission No 202. Have a proposal in terms of policy from Cw. Def – Defence. Treasury – Check whether it can be done by regulation under Def. Preparations. Lunch National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 4 [Page 37] Big Bell. Wait for Meades report. Alcan Not to be pursued. Submission 205. – Tasmanian Apples – Export Guarantees Cabinet did not accept the proposal put forward. Reasons to be stated. 1.We think that g’tees of this kind are primarily for State Govt. 2.We don’t believe govt shd accept liability for loss on a method of sale which is relatively risky. 3.Industry itself with this volume/price should so organise itself so that it can advance finance necessary advances. Monday 4th – 2.30pm. [Page 38] [4–5 February 1952] 4th February 1952 1. Proposed visit by private members. 2. Wheelers case. 3. Bushfires – (a) confirm decision of watching grants. (b) provisional tax Send tax man & man from C&A to hear cases & deal with them on spot. Page suggests statement on what is being done at present about provisional tax generally – McGovern to come over at 4.15pm. Employment position – Q’land – Could we pick up some unemployment by loan work. Page – What about fencing? 4.15. McGovern in attendance In our estimate of £313m. 122 £200m is involved in provisional tax. I cld arrange for officers to go to bushfire areas & deal with prima facie case. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 5 If you do it for bushfires why not do it for wool growers. Provided woolgrower makes appln accompanied by unequivocal estimate can suspend payment of 40% – provided further infn within 90% – balance to be collected within 21 days. Page suggests public statement along lines of administrative direction. Agreed to. P.M. announced return of Treasurer – by Feb. 20. By-election for Lyne. – consult organisation. [Page 39] Submission No 204 As Meat Bd made recn. & it was published pay 7½% this time but in future the figure recommended by the Minister. Nicholas report – Submission No 206. Would not commit ourselves to funding all the cost. ➼ Dutch New Guinea If the Dutch ask for ammunition – yes. Can we check Helfrig’s statement abt Tai islands. 5.2.52 8pm Questions Peace Treaty & Statement on N. Guinea – 1 hr Thurs 7th – No questions – 10.30am. meeting. No confidence motion – Gag on Thurs. night. Friday 8th – 2nd reading on Pacific Pact – sit until 4pm. Debate on Peace Treaty. Bate is urging adjournment on food production. Tues. 12th, Wed 13th & Thursday 14th. – on peace treaty. Friday 15th morning – & Tues 19th & Wed. 20th on Pacific Pact. Salaries bill [Page 40] National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 6 Submission 126A. Not Approved. Submission No 203. Suggestion that C/w. has a developmental works program in states. Rejected. [Page 41] [7 February 1952] 7th 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See. Gair. Yes. 2.15. Exec. 3.30pm 4pm Cancel Metal Trade Dinner.4 Agricultural Council – defer till after funeral. Oath & reswearing. – No. Federal Courts – No sitting on day of funeral. Federal trib. adjourn today – resume tomorrow. 6. Proclamation – Proclamation has no effect – of ceremonial importance & historical significance – agreed to follow precedent. Other than those connected with Memorial services. 7. ? Rebroadcast speeches in House – immediately after news. 8. Commercial broadcasting – not advertising – 9. After the funeral OK – until then public functions like dinners etc. foundation stones. 10. Memorial service – on day of funeral. 11. 2 min silence at 12 noon. 5 12. Sunday for memorial services. 6 13. If he adds a word before or after – that is a matter for him. 14. Service in Park with services. 7 15. Sporting bodies – day of funeral. 16. Queen’s birthday – April 21. Cable to CRO. Gravely incov. – carrying on the date selected by late King. ? Empire day – Anzac Day. 8 9 Monday 21. Friday 25. Gazette 2 Min Silence – funeral – 2am Mem. Sunday following funeral Until ‘Inform State govts that our program is’.is pencilled in. ‘funeral’ is pencilled in. 6 ‘C/w Ministers come to Cba. We will have memorial service at Parlt House Cba.’ is pencilled in. 7 ‘Flags ½ mast today. Accession day – flags at mast head till sunset (6pm)’ is pencilled in. 8 ‘Notify heads of Churches – invite them to conduct appr churches.’ is pencilled in. 9 ‘Yeend to ring Tyrell – abt GGs’ .is pencilled in. 4 5 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 7 17. By election – Last Sat’day in March. 18. D.P.C. – 10.am tomorrow 19. Jap Assets 5.30pm. Monday aft 18th. 10.am Cabinet McEwen, Harrison Beale 1st 5 or 6 close list at 5 [Page 42] [18 February 1952] 18.110.52 The P.M. mentioned the press statement about test of atomic weapon. Submission No. 162. A. 34.3 16.5 50.8 ( 4.0 ( 2.0 ( 3.5 Conversion Cash Cash Total Sinking Fund Life Offices ₤ 2/3m Advertisement C/w Savings Bank 60. ➼ ₤25 million – ➼ balance over 3 yrs, – Bushfires in A.C.T. Report & report of enquiry to go to Law Dept. Report of court of enquiry to go to States. Parliamentary business Censure motion – 2 days. Submission 208. Total works program not to be increased. Submission 209. Part Heard. 10 ‘2’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 8 No announcement yet. Submission 211. Approved. – % not necessarily approved. __________________ [Page 43] Motion of congratulation to Monarch tomorrow – Coronation What are difficulties? After the coronation RSSAILA Basic war pension – Cabinet Ctee along same lines to be reconstituted. – Holland to be informed. [20 February 1952] Cabinet 20.2.52. Costs in relation to basic wage – wheat butter etc. get list. Wheat Scheme Would there be concessional sales – stock feed etc. What would be effect on outgoing funds? Is our policy a continuation of stabilisation plans? or We believe that we should go for freedom. We would They should consider freedom – No that is not sufficient. Are other things just as important – housing. McBride. I think facilities are more important than price – altho’ both are important. We will get more immediate results from N.S.W. where you don’t need super. There is the internal problem of shifting the wheat from SA 11 to NSW. 8m bushels will have to be moved into N.S.W. to provide the offals & for other reasons. Our policy is for freedom. I am now prepared to discuss ways & means. Do you wish we care to give a lead. 11 ‘Vic & WA’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 9 Stablisation. It continues stabilisation but if you wish to discuss freedom – I am willing to discuss it. [Page 44] This includes 1 abolition of export tax 2 guaranteed price abol. 12 Separate considg of home consumption price a human consumption b stock feed. 13 The 14 fund would presumably have to be distributed. 15 Repayment not earlier than July ’53. Freedom which has these implications – Now believes it would be better to have … ∴ of discontent I am prepared to discuss. Friday 2pm to consider this further. – [22 February 1952] Cabinet 22.2.52 P.M. This a major problem – not easy to make snap decision. Implications of this. On econ side we have concentrated on breaking inflationary spiral & stability. If in this calendar year we had a smaller adjustment next quarter smaller again it wld have enormous effect on public mind – easier next year. Failure of loan raising is due to rising prices & fear of depreciated currency. C Series figure indications are good – perhaps half of last perhaps followed by a standstill – rises are in food – clothing is standstill. Removal of controls in wheat & butter – H. Cons price 15/- or 16/- & butter rises by 9d this wld put 5/- on basic wage & this wld negative hoped for fall. (No immediate impact in case of wheat.) [Page 45] We have used stabilisation funds as anti-inflation instrument – ₤xm. Wheat funds now ₤25m for 2 ½ to 5m from last harvest. If we come out with this proposal we ‘Specific questions of a factual kind.’ is written above the line. ‘Prior to contact [unable to read]’ is written above the line. 14 ‘accumulated’ is inserted above the line. 15 ‘Bank Phillips’ is written above the line. 12 13 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 10 can’t retain funds. In addition these funds are held as to ₤6m in April smaturing securities. Advance sub. 2 ½ m & C/w Bank & Treasury assumed conversion of ₤6. Retention of ₤2 ½ & a further ₤1 ½ to ₤2 ½ subs – ₤10m approx. Balance of wheat funds in govt securities of various sorts. To pay out they would have to be bought by C/w Bank. All this inflationary. In case of wheat an increase of production would save dollars for the sterling area. Wheat is profitable but other things are more profitable – eg wool. For butter you need will sell for export at a loss and Br. govts decision is relevant. I don’t think we should determine these issues off the cuff. We should have discussions in the atmosphere of present policies. The Minister can say we are on stabilisation but if you are interested in working towards freedom I am interested in working out the details and implications of this. Holt. I agree we should look carefully at this. I agree that we are well on the way to slowing down the quarterly adjustment. When stability is reached people will [unable to read – ?unbutton]. We want an increase in export production. To get this we are not worrying much about internal cost levels. Even for wool a drop of 20d would have wool growers in trouble. We must remember that stabilisation schemes are designed to avoid the fluctuations of a world market. This is an acceptance of the Colin Clark approach & this may not work out in fact. The other factors are more important than price – eg high taxation, absence of labour, – accomodation on the farms. I hope to put a scheme up on this latter point soon. Our first responsibility is to restore stability and then go on to these other things. [Page 46] Anthony. I have little to add to what I sd the other day. But by way of illustration – we get ₤3m out of canned pineapples sold to Canada. We can hold the Canadian market competitively but the rise in internal costs is making this more & more difficult. S. Africa & Hawaii will come in. The industry produces much more than the Australian market can absorb. This has already happened with butter. This is why I think we must reach stability. The farmer cannot expect to have all the ups & none of the downs. We should give the producers an adequate return on what he produces and should not look for excessive profits at the present time. The sugar industry would not be interested in the quick gains. We must hold the internal costs down. Harrison. I agree with what you 16 said. Page. There is a substantial reduction in production in wheat butter etc. Some incentive must be found. The most important thing is a stable basic wage & stable internal costs. But it should not be the export industries alone that stabilise the economy. We should look at each particular industry. Wheat butter & Sugar each present different problems. Wheat has a profitable export price. The wheat man 16 ‘(PM)’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 11 does not object to the home consumption price, he has had benefits before & he hopes to get them again. We should do something to enable the wheat grower to get his return. Let us look at each product by itself. Perhaps we should give sugar a subsidy instead of a rise in price. So McEwen shd put the matter much as you put it yourself – to the Agric Council. But it is not fair to use producers funds because it is convenient for a particular loan or not. You must work out details first but McEwen shd give an indication of the way our minds are working. We should keep our home consumption prices where they are. [Page 47] Wheat is in a different position – its price is likely to stay up. McEwen. I have never suggested not sticking to home consumption price – eg for wheat I suggested export price less x (2/-, 2/6, 3/-). You sd this has the germs of a big policy departure, it must not be decided in a hurry. That is right. We ought not to anchor ourselves to a contrary policy. The national believes there is a food crisis and in a free enterprize order price determines whether things are produced or not. The whole govt will be embarassed if we don’t have a policy. There is nothing that affects price before Dec. 1 next (wheat). This will be sold 16/export and 12/1 with local. Home feed sales will be 16/1. We should say 15/- for local consumption out of crop to be harvested Xmas next year. My main thesis applies to period after that. We are bound to put this to the vote of the industry before the end of this calendar year. So we have to make up our minds soon. I have had some words prepared & I have done the same with Butter. Before the end of June when the present 17 arrangement runs out we must define our position. WS Kelly is against what I propose in wheat but in favour for butter. He is sure that a lower price would result if industry fixes the price. ---Reads proposed press statement re butter. ---Page. The Equalisation Ctee is the best instrument for fixing the price than is the government. ---Reads proposed statement on wheat. 17 ‘butter’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 12 [Page 48] McMahon. What we do to wheat will not affect basic wage this year. We need to increase sowings. On stabilisation funds – wool growers do not get money back for 3 years. On consessional sales “each is a matter for separate examination”. [Page. Any statement such as is proposed by Minister will not have effect for at least 12 mths. The human consumption part should be expressed clearly.] We are basing our proposals on the assumption that the I.WA is continued and will go on for 2–4 years. McEwen – Wheat grower as an operator can get on. But there is a trend of production that can have serious consequences for the government. Holt. The answer for the fall in production is the price of wool. Anthony. Spooner. We can’t look at this policy in isolation. We must have full implications from Treasury & Economic advisers. Once you say something is going to happen to prices it would destroy the confidence that is now building up. Francis. Internal costs are the important thing & these proposals will undo what we are doing now. [Page 49] Submission No. 209. Approved. Butter in relation to Ag. Council. Anthony. Suggest what was said before. [Circled to be moved to *. C/w to fix ex factory price, States to fix retail margins.] – Guaranteed the dairy industry over a period of years, part by subsidy part by price rises. * Precise paper on this subject to be submitted. [Page 50] Cabinet 10 additional Labour & 14–16 our side of House on Treaty. Peace. Can’t get this thru before Wednesday night – 11.30pm. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 13 Sit this Friday – rise following Thursday. Members have great difficulty in seeing ministers. This one reason for extension. Then go on to Salaries 18 – Calwell suggests an amendment on tax free proposition (miners overtime – marginal rates) Daly is not so certain that party will agree to amendment. Note wide title of 19 Income Tax Amendment bill – any member can speak on anything in acts referred to. Salaries can run as long as it likes (Thursday & Friday) Then Pacific Pact, then 2 small 20 Fisheries bills. Sugar – O’Sullivan – If we agree to ad hoc increase you will find it hard to get Q. senators to vote for reduction as a result of enquiry – No bill – Sugar to come to Cabinet. Bill on Insurance21. (Wednesday in Senate – Statements on Int. Affairs, Defence.) It was suggested that the adj amendment should be dealt with immediately but how many rebels are there. Some doubt about whether labour members will vote for the amendment. 11.15 Submission 121A. ? as to Section 31. Approved subject to query as to this. Deputation to Cba – Want to charter buses – Yes. Extra buses on route – but no extra. [Page 51] Submission No 212. Short statement to be prepared setting out the reasons why the government is participating in the Company – necessary for increased supplies to Australia. ? Can’t the effort be made to alter the trusteeship arrangements. ? Any alteration in the royalties– w ‘Thursday morning’ is inserted above the line. ‘long title’ is inserted above the line. 20 ‘(Tuesday)’ is written above the line. 21 ‘(Thursday)’ is written above the line. 18 19 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 14 Paul to talk to Treasury about the capital aspects – raising of. Approve subject to Treasury view on raising of capital. PM to make announcement after receipt of statement. Can it be “denounced.” Menzies, McLeay22, McBride, Kent Hughes, Beale. Treasury view & agendum 2 weeks. – Tuesday 10.30(?) – Appointment of Osborne Chairman 5 yrs. Mair – 3 yrs renewal. Other vacancies Appointment of Dunk. – [Page 52] [4–6 March 1952] Cabinet 4.3.52 Submission 31 A The Minister read the submission. The comment was made that the figures did not justify the conclusion of 2d. In reply it was stated that other groceries had gone up more in price than sugar. Case of sugar industry and the price criticism are so far apart that we cannot decide it on these facts. We can’t just accept either at this stage. There shd be an early enquiry first – prove what elements of cost have increased sugar industry to consult with Treasury and Customs. Pointed out that increase would put local price over above export price. This would be the fifth increase without enquiry. Treasury says figures do not justify more than ½ d. Increase so soon will lead to request for frequent adjustments from butter and other primary industries. Treasury disagrees with some of Treasury comments. The industry is in a bad way. – McMahon says we deferred action on wheat because we wanted to defer any action which would have an effect on the C Series and there should be no decision which could affect the August figures. McEwen. we should not make a stab decision round this table – but all the inducements are into the inessential industries. We should concentrate on the basic industries. We should not adopt McMahon‘s view. 22 ‘(6)’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 15 This is a political issue in Q’land and we should be prompt. The Bureau of Agric. Ec. could be brought in to help in a quick assessment of the position. Sugar like wheat is as good as gold as a dollar saver. P.M. I do not support 2d on the papers before us. It may be that agreement can be arrived at as to a minimum increase and then the McCarthy ctee can get to work. Consult with Customs, Bureau of Ag. Ec., and the Treasury. Page. The industry’s real mistake was in asking for ½ d in 1947 instead of 2 d then which was the proper figure at that time. They have always been behind the game. The industry had a couple of days with Customs a week or so ago. Anthony. You must take some prompt action to give relief. [Page 53] CSR say they propose to close N.S.W mills within the next couple of years unless things improve. P.M. The first consultations are interim. We will take the last price & we will consider increases of cost since that date. The question whether they asked for enough then is for the longer enquiry. Treasurer. I do not agree with that. I would have a confirmation or otherwise of the 1949 case. Holt. I agree with the P.Ms view – you make an interim decision & then you look at the base in a longer enquiry. But is not the acreage regulated by the state govt. But not only a Treasurer. They have been new assignments recently especially to soldier settlers. But some new assignments have not been taken up by people who have won the ballot. McBride. Apparently we can implement this by letter. No cost ctee can give a real conclusion until our agricultural policy is decided. How much export can the domestic market support. How will capital items be treated by taxation laws. These things will be just as important as price – fertiliser, housing etc. McEwen. Our only status in this is that we can put an embargo on sugar imports. The Q’land govt could not fix a price itself for sugar and tell us to chase ourselves. We are not principals. McMahon. If the price increase relates only to the 35% we will be asked for a subsidy. McBride. 1927–39 – price progressively fell and production increased and this shows that price and production are not inde dependent. CSR are doing it for the same price but their costs are going up. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 16 Spooner. The price of sugar is likely to go up. P.M. The Q’land govt never committed itself to the price. Holt. The ctee should not be confined to the grower. Decision. Reps of Industry, Treasury, Bureau of Ag. Ec, Customs – agreed minimum. Report within a fortnight. Tell us what increase in price is justified by the increase in costs since the last adjustment. [Page 54] What about the fruit industry. How would fruit industry be affected by any proposed increase. Constitution of major committee Industry suggested a committee of 8 – but it was thought that this should not be a group of representatives McCarthy (chair) Bell, Customs, Treasury. McCarthy to have casting vote. Terms of Reference – Approved. O’Sullivan – to draft a press statement – perhaps reply to question in the house. War Service Homes There is a complaint of a breach of what was to be done. Townley. On 22/8/51 we put in a submission. We were then committed to ₤16m expenditure out of our ₤25 (later raised to ₤27). We were faced with inescapable increase in max loan to ₤2750. It was pointed out that any delay in implementing our recommendations would make it more difficult. The bill did not get through until Dec. 11. By end of Dec. we had reduced expenditure to ₤2.3m per mth. At end of Jan there had been an enormous run on purchase of old properties at the ₤2000 rate & this tendency continued in February. We then had to stop loans for this sort of purchase unless we were to go over out ₤27m. I reported this to the P.M. This is apparently because of our restrictive policy in lending generally, is forcing homes into the war service homes. The estate agents are actively encouraging men into this field. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 17 Holt. To what extent can the C/w Bank help. It was doing a great deal of this business before. PM. We are having a paper on housing for next week. Townley. The banks are valuing very conservatively – C/w Bank is going out – insurance companies are not lending, co-operative societies are not going ahead. The private members will not admit that this must be held within budget limits. [Page 55] There should be no priorities within ex-servicemen. But we must say there is a limit under each category. PM. We eased this out by ₤2m. Townley put up a notice on the party room and there was nothing in the notice about a ceiling. We must state clearly that there is a limit. Townley. We are providing 3 times as much money & 3 times as many homes as the labour govt did. McEwen. Any other show would delay to such an extent that it was fitted in to the budget amount. McLeay. We should not adjourn and leave our own party in such a discontented state. Treas. What about giving the ₤3 now out of next years figure. Treasurer 23 to discuss this matter further with Treasury officers. [Page 56] Cabinet 5-3-52. Treasurer. Deal with our own problem first & then relate it to the sterling area position. Submission 214 The Treasurer introduced paper no. 214 & then read supplementary agendum. (War Service Homes – Cabinet cannot increase the amount on the budget. Cabinet is re-examining the whole of its policies on housing to see what can be done. Agreed to tell members that Cabinet will consider the matter in the morning.) Might run over ₤27 for these 3 but not others 23 ‘& P.M.’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 18 1. 2. 3. all existing clients commitments. deposits where there is risk of forfeiture contacts before 25.2.52. special hardship cases. [Page 57] Cabinet 524 .3.52 War Service Homes The Minister reported that he was administering the department on the following basis – 1. to meet all existing commitments 2. cases for where there is a risk of forfeiture loss of deposits on a contract entered into before 25.2.52. 3. special hardship cases. P.M. read his proposed statement & this was approved. Submission No. 214 resumed. The UK wishes the cut to fall in the dollar & non-sterling area & asked it us for to turn a deficit of ₤15 25 in dollar area to a credit of ₤35 26 for on a half yearly basis. The Chancellor now asks that the credit be ₤35m not ₤15m over the second half of 1952 & apparently the deficit of ₤25m for dollars “within this figure” means an annual rate of surplus of ₤95m instead of ₤70m. We are working on the reasons why we can’t do what we are asked and indicating how far we can go. We hope to have it after lunch. PM. If we had taken action in December we would have been better off and in both Treasury & Customs they failed to be aware of the gravity of the problem. Spooner. I will not accept an allocation of imports by Customs, Treasury. The administration within the Treasury is not as it should be. It is intolerant of other departments views & will not approach them. I think we can get private funds to come to Australia. The constructive departments must have some say in the allocation of imports. The Treasury & the C/w Bank dominate the capital issues control as well. Treasurer. Whenever I have enquired into Capital Issues decisions I have found that they were unanimous. PM. Three questions – ‘6’ is written above the line. ‘35m’ is written above the line. 26 ‘15m’ is written above the line. 24 25 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 19 1. Will it be necessary to adopt a policy of import control? 2. If so, by what machinery do we use? 3. If so, what alterations in internal policies do we make to counter-act the inflationary effect of import control. [Page 58] I believe we must license imports – we should obtain as much flexibility as we can to avoid building up domes vested interests – & we then direct our minds to counter-inflationary measures to replace the loss of this volume of imports. K.H. And fourthly unless we treat this on the basis of a war-time economy. McE. This is a first class crisis. You have to have import controls & internal controls. You have to meet it by expanding exports as well. I am aghast at the belttightening approach. It was a different world in 1949. We need not be afraid of a deficit. We are silly about making sabres and some other elements of our defence expenditure. We may have to take on C/wealth price control. Holt. I do not like a large scale control programme. I don’t think we can avoid a post mortem. We must test our advisers. We would not have encouraged imports to the tune of ₤600m a year. We were promised a sharp drop in imports in the early part of this year by the Treasury. Gifford & Sargood told me that they wld have practically no imports after June. Without import control there wld be a drop of hundreds of millions after June. We wld do better to take the trade into our confidence. I accept some import control as inevitable but only after full consultation with trade. Casey. The immediate problem is to reduce imports. UK wants to know the answer to the Chancellor’s question. Anthony. What are the consequences if we don’t make the cuts. What will our position be in 6 mths if we take no action. Harrison. O’Sullivan. Proclamation wld bring in import control. Wld have to block funds in London – this wld require exchange control. Harrison. Can we not provide flexibility in McMahon. We have not got enough information. Irrevocable letters of credit have already been issued up to the end of June & the problem will solve itself. [Page 59] Hasluck. Our objective is to maintain the balance of payments. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 20 Spooner. Imports are to be restricted – extent turns on balance of payments in meantime it will be on ad hoc basis. We should have a paper showing the manner proposed and the effect of this on our own economy. I wld not accept that the level is x or y. PM. We must decide on the target we are aiming it. Customs, Treasury propose to bring up detailed proposals as to ways & means of achieving these results. By Tuesday we should have this. Spooner. Can we even determine the target even in a form of words. … Cabinet decided in principle to impose overall import restrictions in the interests of conserving London funds and to announce this decision and publi make necessary exe proclamations & orders at the earliest possible moment. (Advised Dr Wilson 2.20pm 1.pm. Resumed 2.30pm Submission No. 213 The Minister outlined the facts in the submission. It was suggested that P.M. should make an appeal to the people to eat less meat. It was agreed to despatch cable to High C/m’s office London. 3.0pm. Wilson & Coombs joined meeting. P.M. explained the decision & asked Gov to explain exchange matters. Coombs. No bank will provide exchange except on production of an import license. – Some goods are in transit but most of these will be paid for – We will advise the Banks as soon as you say. Credits are quite high but they have fallen somewhat. Sterling from peak ₤37m Oct .to abt ₤23-4 in April. Outstanding acceptances stand at ₤80m. Feb. figures are just as high as ever. There has been a great deal of duplicated orders. The flood was caused largely by the fall in demand in European countries and Canada. [Page 60] Although there are differences as to what the position is in June we are really agreed as to Nov–Dec which is ₤120–130m. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 21 Abt 1941 we had some deficit. Before the war ₤70m was regarded as a reasonable figure – this compared with ₤100m imports a year. We think of ₤500 as a figure around which it might fluctuate. We want 6 mths to 9 mths imports – to give you time to take effective action. Capital money which has come to Australia for investment short or long term is controllable because you have to sell the asset & remit proceeds. We have controlled this & can do it fairly efficiently. There has already been some withdrawal. Leads & lags are much more difficult. We have lost a good deal of this over last 15 mths. We had ₤12m overseas deposits in Trading bank & that is now nil. So with other banks. At the moment we are helped by the weakness of sterling. We can trace money which comes in as such but capital coming in in the form of goods (unpaid for) does not reduce our London funds. The possibilities of reducing requirements for non import items 1. We have always allowed royalties, payments, etc to go – we have exception for film royalties. 2. Travel – ₤10m in sterling area, in Europe ₤1 27 Total – ₤12m. You won’t immediately have a great shortage of goods because we are overstocked, meanwhile the 28 demand is being reduced and so the pressure for more factories is not as great as it would otherwise be. Also individuals are stocked up. I don’t think that business failures are likely to exercise a very great influence on the situation. I don’t believe that any soundly based firm is likely to be bankrupt through paying its income tax. So long as our public & private investment program are high we will not have… [Page 61] Bank advances will not come down until imports fall off. While banks should not push customers to bankruptcy, in the past banks have been too ready to lend. But at the present time they don’t need encouragement from us to be restrictive. But if we relieve them of anxiety they might relax on the expanding customer, & I would not like to offer them too much assurance about getting out of it too early. __________________ Coombs left at 4.00pm Wilson remained. __________________ 27 28 ‘USA $2.8m’ is inserted above the line. ‘local’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 22 The Cabinet discussed the reply to be made to the Chancellor. Wilson. When we were in London a statistical ctee estimated second half of 1952 a net drawing of ₤35m sterling on all non-sterling countries and we were asked to turn that into a surplus of ₤15m. We did not accept this and pointed out that the distinction between the two halves of the year was unrealistic. They now suggest a revised target, raising it from ₤15 to ₤35 for the second half of 29 1952, and secondly divided the ₤35 into two parts – deficit ₤12 ½ with dollar area and if you do then go into credit ₤47 ½ m. This is even more difficult because we are already heavily committed in the dollar field. (At the conference the B.O.T. wanted no restrictions on U.K. imports altho’ we said we had an overall problem. Treasury did not agree with B.O.T. The targets are expressed entirely in terms of non-sterling area. We should send some message to U.K. that we are going to affect British trade before we make an announcement. You have now decided to impose licensing all over. If I assume a target of ₤500m 30 you would get this picture if it is worked out the way Customs officers think it will operate – A Target B Target -47 ½ Nil -75 Nil 1951/52 aifd ₤2231 of ₤122 with non sterling area including dollar area Estimate 2nd ½ of 52 " " ₤25 +₤44 -47 ½ -15 ½ +22 ½ +59 ½ " 1st ½ of 53 Surplus ₤60 +₤44 -11 ¼ -15 ½ +71 ¼ +59 ½ Full year 52/53 +₤35 +₤88 -58 ¾ -31 +93 ¾ +119 Compare Chancellors message Divide this into A. dollar area B. balance of non sterling countries [Page 62] Look at dollar area first For the first half year We are set a target of – ₤15 ½ m and our deficit is likely to be ₤47 ½ m. On the second half year we are close to the target – and over the whole year we are short ₤27 ¾ . On the32 non sterling – we are short abt ₤26m on the whole (119) ( 93 ¾ ) ( 25 ¼ ) This assumes that you don’t recall or cancel dollar licenses. The psychology behind the Chancellors message. ‘calendar year’ is inserted above the line. ‘f.o.b. imports’ is inserted above the line. 31 ‘deficit of’ is written above the line. 32 ‘other’ is inserted above the line. 29 30 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 23 At one stage in the business sessions we got a hint that the cash may not be there. But the reserve today is lower. The Chancellor We are faced with the possible break up of the sterling area if we say No. But a prudent chancellor may decide to stop funds. We would have to conduct our own financial affairs. We wld sell as much to Britain but we would have to bargain for so much gold & so much dollars. There would be a nasty period while we were learning the new technique. Whether she wld be better off in the long run is not clear. It would be a great blow to prestige of Br C/w. Australia & UK were equally spendthrift. India had crop failures for 2 or 3 years running. Their sterling balance had been drawn down but they still have heavy funds. We can’t complain about the attitude of Ceylon, Pakistan or India. There are alleviations – eg, 1. long term borrowing from Int Bank. That will not help us much in ’52 even if we got more flexibility. It would be hard to speed it up. You don’t get the money until after you get the goods. You may be able to get a loan of money rather than a loan about goods. 2. possible drawing from I.M.F. We are now drawn ₤20m & we have not repaid. There is a new policy of short term drawings – 3–5 years. The fund is looking for a borrower on these new terms. We had been thinking that we should begin to repay. The extreme outside limit wld be $25m. 3. Most of figuring has left out the sales on gold. This is worth $35m a year. We were going to use it for a capital purpose – (a) repayment fund or (b) refinancing of $71 maturity. Mr Eugene Black has rather adopted the $71 as [Page 63] a matter on which to offer advice. He wants us to repay it – refloat some, refinance some from Switzerland etc. London wanted to know what we were going to do with our premium sales. They wanted at least the proceeds in dollars. I think that we should not ‘call’ our loan and would use it for the $71m. The Bank of Eng has a nest egg in the Stabilisation Fund & is looking for a dollar investment. Sir Geo Bolton might buy up some of our loan. Selling aside the possibility of calling the loan. We could use the $35m dollars as a contribution in the second half of this year. Alternatively we could devote a proportion of our gold production to the repayment of the old & new loan from the I.M.F. But one or other of these offers some relief in the second half of 1952. We shd tell Chancellor what we are doing on the overall it does not give a good picture for 2nd half of ’52, better in ’53. We are bending our minds to other methods33 but leaving it imprecise in just what way we are going to do it. 33 ‘perhaps even mention particular ones,’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 24 Treasurer. I don’t see how other countries can do it. Wilson. We are going to fall down badly on the dollar front because we have commitments already made. McBride. Are the UK assuming that we are going to use our gold money. DM. Apart from our premium gold we are stacking up ordinary gold reserve. Wilson. 1951/52 ’52 ’53 For sterling ₤394m sterling - 68m +6 - 62 Townley. Is this not just another temporary expedient. Wilson. There is a belief that it pays off in the interests of the Br. Economy to keep sterling inconvertible & manipulate it. As against this [Page 64] there was strong support for convertibility in the British press. Wilson. The figures and targets quoted for non-sterling are net figures, but if you take the same assumptions – the sterling figures are 1949/50 50/51 51/52 52/53 1949/50 52/53 Total Imports Non Sterling ₤Am. 150 ➼ 228 ➼ 420 ➼ 235 ➼ Total Imports Sterling ₤Am. 388 ➼ 514 ➼ 680 ➼ 265 ➼ Non sterling responds most slowly – take dollar figures Dollar Other countries ₤Am. like Japan 78 72 86 142 141 279 110 125 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 25 The rest of the war It is true that we might court retaliation – eg France & Belgium but taking the non-sterling area as a whole we sell more to them than we buy to them. Casey. We can’t get out of this without the help of the U.S. U.K will have a fit if they knew our figures & their affect on the UK trade. [Page 66] P.M. What is the UK. thinking about sterling imports into Australia? KH. How far are we as tied to sterling – we are34 expanding economy & should we be tied to a contracting economy. P.M. If we are on our own for dollars we will have no dollars they will not buy our meat or butter. In addition the balance of trade is our business. KH. As to dollars we are in no position to decline as they can cut us off. On the other we have to make cuts for our own reasons. But if in order to overcome our general trade balance we applied the same cut to UK as to Japan as with other countries they would have definite cause for complaint. PM. Suppose we could achieve their target in the non-sterling area & we still wanted to get down to ₤500. Wilson. In 2nd half of ’52 we are short of Casey. Wilson. I do not think we could meet the UK. request by cutting imports but perhaps by using our gold. McEwen. We have not heard a word about increasing our earnings. In two years we should be able to increase them. Why don’t we produce more gold & wheat. P.M. Are we going to commit ourselves to a specific target. We must tell him the bit we have decided – He may have some observations about the target. What are our general suggestions about the method of import licensing. I don’t like the mathematical approach. What about starting off with a month or two month or 3 mth holiday &. Resume 8pm. [Page 66] Resumed 9pm 34 ‘an’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 26 PM. First question is whether we accept a target. I told Cochran that we did not like tying ourselves to a target. We are taking power to license all imports – preservation of [unable to transcribe a word] solvency, reduce dollar imports to actual necessity – reduce non sterling to max extent consistent with non s exports – & will have to reduce sterling imports to a limit consistent with a prudent level. 35 Spooner. We should warn them that this is a big cut on sterling imports. PM. This has been done by my talk with Cochran tonight. O’Sullivan. We should preserve the position that we should are now cutting dollars to a very substantial extent. Wilson. Their figures which they will be looking at are the following. 1949/50 50/51 51/52 52/53 ₤A. (includes ₤13 ½ m from dollar loan) ₤78m ₤86 ₤141 – In March ’51 you put 6 items outside the budget. In 4 ₤110 – qrs on those 6 items – were ₤30m altho’ they will not all come in – Timber, Steel, 36 Grains, Aluminum. They were put back on quota about a month ago. Casey. Our imports from sterling area will be only 40% next year as compared with 80% from dollar area. PM. Wilson. Customs says already you have cut the non essentials out of the dollar side. McBride. I don’t think that we should put down a target figure but we should be able to cut down on dollars if we P.M. 1. Complete control of imports by licensing. 2. Overall target37 to preserve 38 [?unable to transcribe a word] solvency. 3. Reduce dollar imports to limits of actual necessity. 4. " non -s39, non -d40 imports to greatest pos. ex41 consistent with maintenance of export income. ‘Advise the Chancellor along the following lines.’ is written above the line. ‘Basic’ is inserted above the line. 37 ‘is’ is written above the line. 38 ‘Aust international’ is written above the line. 39 ‘sterling’ is written above the line. 40 ‘dollar’ is written above the line. 41 ‘possible extent’ is written above the line. 35 36 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 27 5. Nec42 to reduce S. imp. most rel. to ex43 necessary to preserve overseas bal44 at 45 prudent level. To a large extent non-ess have already been cut down in non s. & d. up & ∴ heavy cut in sterling imports is inevitable. – which concerns us or you [Page 67] We know that your problem is our problem etc. Treasurer. I wld not give them any figures – let them ask for them if they want it. Casey. Shd we not say sterling imports have reached a very high. Add to para 5 We point out that s46 i47 into Aust were (set out)48 It will be obvious that if we are to get our imports (now – ) down to49 exports (now – ) very cut in imports is inevitable. McBride. C/w Rlys bought from dollar area because delivery dates were better. Harrison. Let us agree with general draft & leave it to P.M. P.M. I see some advantage in reminding them of growth of Br. imports in Aust. Agreed to add addition to para 5, set out above. PM. The next question. Tell banks not to issue letters of credit tomorrow. Wilson. Give UK time to get message off. We will probably get re-action by lunch. We get our formal reply away then. Tell Banks to defer letters of credit. Gazette order on Satdy morning – statement on Satdy evening press. Agreed. – PM. Let us turn to the instructions to the committee drawing up licensing instructions. McEwen. I think it ought to be individually selective. ‘necessary’ is written above the line. ‘sterling imports most reluctant to extent’ is written above the line. 44 ‘balances’ is written above the line. 45 ‘minimum’ is inserted above the line. 46 ‘sterling’ is written above the line. 47 ‘imports’ is written above the line. 48 ‘3 yrs’ is written above the line. 49 ‘our’ is inserted above the line. 42 43 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 28 Casey. Should not the test be unemployment in Australia – ie we let components in. McEwen – Someone from Commerce should sit in watching that you don’t damage export industries. – McBride – And Defence Production & Development. Casey. The degree of stockpiling should also be taken into account. McEwen. What we shouldn’t do is give every one a percentage of a base year. Wilson. Staff & administration is going to be terrific. At first they must have an automatic system so that the local collector can get the show going for the first couple of months [Page 68] when you come to criticism of particular items– If someone is held up for a few weeks it would be a good idea anyway. Hasluck. What are we going to say if we are asked about petrol rationing. Kent Hughes. We must get a decision on the validity of the Defence Production50 Act. The whole problem arises out of our the worlds preparations for war. McBride. If we were forced into petrol rationing the High Court would not lightly throw it out as unconstitutional. Meere. Our previous experience is that a quota system can be operated with at each port. The only way to start it off is on a quota as far as possible. Some lines like capital goods do not lend themselves to a quota system. The importer knows where he is under a quota system. Overall licensing is a big operation. Dollar & Japanese licensing need only be intensified. Suppose you start with a quota system on copper. Measuring imports on 1950/51 would be the best basis we can get – 3 mths licensing period – wise not to prohibit completely – there will be no discrimination because of G.A.T.T. but UK will probably get a little more of the non-essential trade, no embargoes at the moment – we would have to take what I.M.C. gives us – eg copper – some raw materials would be on administration, so would tinplate– motor vehicles, unassembled chassis 60%, bodies & panels51 in 20% – special defence materials would have to be on administration probably – petrol under administration but on 1950/51 basis, wool-sacks etc under administration & you will have some unemployment I feel sure – goods on order do not necessarily justify a license. 50 51 ‘Preparation’ is written above the line. ‘& complete vehicles’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 29 P.M. We will have to follow this up with our a stiffening up of the anti-inflationary program. But I hope we won’t stay too long in the quota system. Start off on quota basis but let us establish a small policy ctee as well – a good man from each of relevant depts. [Page 69] Harrison. This will create an extra-ordinary amount of unemployment – we will be short of the raw materials in many cases. Meere. I can create a sort of holiday by administrative delay. Agree to customs proposal & discuss ways & means of getting a principle of selectivity. [Page 70] [11–12 March 1952] Cabinet 11.3.52 Exclusion of Chinese re Bringing in Japanese divers in Broome. Holt to bring matter up. Submission No 222. The Treasurer read the Submission. K.H. Holt. But a lot of our expenses are really capital expenditure & should not go on a revenue budget. McMahon. But you cannot have savings if there is very heavy taxation. K. Hughes. We are not working hard enough. Casey. We were not warned in time on imports. Treasurer. We. P.M. As soon as the loan closes we ought to have a loan council. It will have to be a better cut than before. K. Hughes. Can federal depts be instructed to send52 estimates to Price. Harrison. There is a spate of acquisition from P.O. 52 ‘works’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 30 K.H. Defence, Civil Aviation & P. Office. Treasurer. The present paper is only introductory & for information. P.M. A review of the working out of the various policies is being prepared, credit restrictions, capital issues. Treasurer. You put our revenue into our sinking fund which becomes a lender to the states. __________________ New Zealand PM– We have never restricted N.Z. Notionally apply this – but administratively free. No possibility of Br. re-exports. Treasurer. But what is N.Z. going to do. P.M. Apparently they are not going to license imports. McLeay. They have announced a cut today. P.M. Let us have a cable to Holland, asking can he tell what they are doing. [Page 71] Petrol Petrol. P.M. points out that there is a substantial increase in petrol consumption. It was suggested that a substantial increase in duty should be put on. K.H. If exchange was running free there wld be a substantial increase in price. Spooner to bring up a paper on this urgently. Diesel use has increased enormously because of the absence of coal. Turn-round of ships would be the real solution. Can we afford ₤135m out 53 of ₤660m. George to bring up a paper on transport – ? No action on petrol until a direction from P.M. or Cabinet. __________________ Cement – K.H. In Victoria not one bag of local cement is allowed for anything except housebldg & government construction. The position is better in NSW. So there will be trouble if you reduce it to 20%. This is very special. The have to keep construction jobs going continuously. 53 ‘out of’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 31 Submission No 220 Treasurer read the Submission incl. App. C. McBride recalled that the reason given before for not raising the objection exemption was that people were not allowed a bigger exemption on income tax. – P.M. suggests that do not attempt to decide these issues separately. Submission No 219. McBride– If anything is as done it ought to be spread over the 5 years. Harrison. I do not see that there should be any difference between what is done to the trader and what is done to farmers, where there is an insurance payment. Treasurer– Trader puts in stock at cost or market, but the owner of livestock can put it down at a minimum figure. Thus there is an artificial margin between this and the insurance value & he has to pay a tax on the apparent profit. Unless the man is a dealer he wants to keep his stock values even [Page 72] but if he is a dealer he wants to keep the values up as high as possible. Treasurer recommends the five year proposal. – till 2.30pm. Submission No 219 (contd) Chifley made some arrangement about 1947 for bushfires in Victoria. He waived provisional tax & deal with all cases on a hardship basis. It was objected that it was restricted to primary producers & extended to all livestock. It was suggested that the alternative set out in para. 33 be adopted. This applies to all livestock insurance recoveries – whether from fire or flood and drought if it is possible to insure against these latter two. So far as livestock is concerned. Agreed. Submission No 221. Considered a scheme to be described as Wool Sales Deductions in reverse. This was rejected. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 32 It was pointed out that taxable income is down 40% & this would reduce his tax by about 60–65%. You will still be overtaxing to about ₤58–₤60m 54 this year55 It was said also that over-taxing is in many cases of the order of 250% to 350%. A/G questions why C/w cannot grant extension of time for payment under section 206. This is said to apply to both Tax & provisional tax. Suggest that C/w should consult with legal officers. Proposal in para 29 agreed. Tax & Law dept to confer as to whether this can be done administratively – or whether legislation necessary to strengthen the discretionary power rather than a statutory right. He is to defer the amt by which 51/52 exceeds etc – subject to max of 40% –. Where C/w is satisfied that there is a declining income. This applies also to wool & wheat man whose composite income is down. ?Should it not apply to all taxpayers. Res Some connection with wool growers to be made – say 10% of his income. Announce that some scheme is in mind to deal with self assessment to show that you are not thinking only of the wool grower. __________________ Early announcement to be made by Treasurer. [Page 73] Hasluck. When we were justifying provisional tax we sd this was pay as you earn. Do we not sho say now that it is different. P.M. A permanent scheme of self assessment would look after this. Return to Submission 220 Recommendations 1 & 2 agreed. Cabinet 12.3.52 Harrison. SMH & other papers are really concerned abt private taxation. Should we not also look at this question. Fadden. I have have private & public Co taxn to exper ctee & this will come up at general review of taxation. PM. When will this be? It is common ground that loopholes had been stopped up but that we had gone much further. Treasurer. 56 Follow this up. ‘or is it ₤32m.’ is inserted above the line. ‘which will have to be credited next year.’ is inserted above the line. 56 ‘I will’ is inserted above the line. 54 55 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 33 __________________ Holt. Are you proposing any cut in paper imports. P.M. Packers case is that we should deal with tonnage not value – but he is willing to accept some commodil cut. Anthony. Submission 168B The 22 ships on order – 6 yrs – ₤12.7m. We have 78 ships obsolete & Cos. will have to buy 20 or 30 ships as well. Tasmania is not being offered any ships– Reply – private owners are being offered suitable ships for Tasmania. __________________ Anthony. Subject to general terms. McLeay. All the terms are to come back to Cabinet. P.M’s dept to be left off. – Sale on book value. – D.C.L. Williams to go on instead. – Suggested that a ship be offered. Anthony is concerned about shipping on Australian coast – likely [Page 74] to that private interests will not be able to do the job. Submission 217 … Casey. This is elementary electronics – I wld be for a decision on defence electronics. Treas – We cannot add to our works program ’53/’54. Opposed to anything that adds to this. Anthony. I am not enthusiastic – I wld not like an announcement to abandon television. Defer for time being – instructed to bring back at more appropriate time. However I do not agree with Casey. They are Proximity fuse is based on same principles & many others things also. McEwen – Lead & Zinc ₤200A. for 6 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 34 – ₤65 Austn Elec Z 57 of metallic zinc, & ingot lead Ass. Smelters – & these two Cos have carried whole bundle of supplying local market. Mt Isa & Lake George export whole production in concentrate form (zinc) & lead bullion. Last year BHAS & E.Z. has supplied reg. at ₤13m less than export. Mt Isa wld have borne abt ₤2m of this. We have not exercised export control – BHAS & E.Z. have attempted over years to get this corrected – occasionally kept local market short. Chifley got a local rise in price58 & a guarantee of x tons for 80,000 tons lead, 52,000 zinc & Mt Isa to make a financial contn to the other Cos. This was a deal for a year. At the end of the year Mt Isa withdrew just as we came into office. In 1950 2 Aust Cos protested, threatened to shorten market – State prices people asked us to impose export controls. I then with Cab approval & at request of States negotiated a deal on 50,000 tons lead, 52,000 tons zinc on a price of ₤65 a ton for both. This was based on cost of 59 reduction. This deal ran out60. We insisted States calculated cost of prodn ₤71. ₤69. The Cos settled for ₤65 because they didn’t [Page 75] want their books examined. The Cos are now pressing this. Tiawan has sd (I think with authority) they want me to negotiate a price Cos are saying ₤8561 Oseas ₤205–210 lead, ₤210–₤215 zinc. They want Mt Isa in. – Their costs are higher. Proposition now is that PM sees [unable to read name – see end of page also] – head of Mt Isa Co – controlled by American smelting & refining altho it has no Austn capital & say to him Govt is not happy abt this & try to persuade him to come in. But if he won’t be persuaded can we say to him (not an equalisation scheme which involved a lot of examination of books as was once suggested) we will do like we did for copper. Something was to be exported to Mexico & permit was given on condition that copper came back. If you won’t play we will attach a condition to export permit that you return to Australia or otherwise provide in Australia the lead & zinc. They wld then buy enough at f.o.b. export prices & it would end up in a financial contribution. Mt Isa’s financial contribution if local price is ₤100 & domestic ₤200. They wld 15,000 tons at ₤100 = ₤1½ million. ‘only’ is inserted above the line. ‘₤22-35 lead, ₤40 zinc’ is inserted above the line. 59 ‘pro’ is inserted above the line. 60 ‘in December last.’ is inserted above the line. 61 ‘is justifiable’ is inserted above the line. 57 58 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 35 Treasurer. I support this proposal. One in all in. K.H. Alternatively you can lift the local price up to the export price. Casey. Does the 50/000 lead & 52/000 zinc sufficient for local market. McEwen– Zinc is I.M.C. & lead is not. There is a greater demand here for them because of the low price. P.M. The States have never done anything to gouge out the hoarded lead. Spooner. I agree with the proposal – but Mt Isa does reflect tremendous credit on the company. They represent big U.S. capital which we need badly. K. will consider his shareholders interests. I hope it won’t react against the copper project and any other project. Harrison. He has had a lot of facilities – but & shd pay something back. O’Sullivan. Over 20 years it has paid only 3 dividends – they have put back returns into the district. Rly will be bkrupt if it was not for the carriage of ore. Listen to what [?unable to read name] has to say. [Page 76] Casey. Isa was under a price disability for a number of years – which BH did not have. The degree of profitability should be brought into consideration in assessing the degree of sacrifice. We could perhaps attract –– They have $250m liquid capital. We may discourage them. McBride. Why do they export it as concentrates. Anthony. I support the proposal. It is basic to holding down our costs. Treasury. The recognized the principle a couple of years ago. I am an original shareholder. They must make some contribution. P.M. Suppose we don’t pursue this with Mt Isa, what will B.H.A.S & EZ do. If they say One out all out. Prices go up or we have to exercise compulsion over you. Can we do that & not do it to Isa. (Land Tax – Ask Ctee to look into circumstances of last years valuations. Should we wait until reply is obtained from Ctee or make it known now. Decided to wait.)– Hasluck. There are lead mines in WA – now gone out of production. (Holt. Basten report – are we going to open negotiations or now with unions etc). National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 36 McMahon. We should not go beyond negotiations. By We are in a mess with differential prices. BH Cos let us have lead & zinc cheap because it would reduce their profits which would otherwise be embarassing. Mt Isa passed its dividend last year. Casey. And they are concentrating on copper production. McEwen. Mt Isa took a debenture – they had no dividends but they had interest on debentures. They have now turned it into shares. Submission 218 Approved. subject to62 views of Act Advisory Ctee – Party meeting – Monday 21st 63 2.30. [Page 77] [17–18 March 1952] Cabinet 17th March 1952 Submission No. 229 – Economic Policy March ’52 The Treasurer read the submission. Submission No. 223 – Housing & the Economy The Treasurer read the Submission. Holt. I think that the no. of bldg permits has fallen off. P.M. This review does not tell us what is happening in the lst 6 mths. Spooner. There is a greater diversion to commercial buildings I am told. Submission No 226. Submission read by Mr McMahon. The question was asked whether Att. D. included loans to banks or was a reduction of the a/c strictly sensu. To what extent is special account a proper control. 62 63 ‘P.M ascertaining’ is inserted above the line. ‘April’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 37 There is a contingent liability of ₤50 – or ₤60m that could be called up under the formula. Apparently they are not entitled to have any amount repaid. There are some negotiations with 64 the C/w Bank and the trading banks with the object of altering this uncalled liability under special a/c legn. Query Att. C. Why are the C/w Bank figures not published. Submission No 227. – Cabinet members read the Submission and also the next. Submission No 228. – McEwen. There is a confusion. We are supposed to be short of money & we are supposed to have an inflation which is too much money. Holt. So much expenditure relates to goods that are not consumable. P.M. Let us discuss the implications of the main paper. Some of the later papers are defective – eg, housing is too much out of date, 6–8 mths old. Have supplies to Coop & bldg societies been cut off as I am told. I feel that there is a recession in demand for housing – if so – can we prime the pump a bit in the direction of co-ops & bldg societies. [Page 78] I want to say something about defence – it is a mess – impossible in terms of finance & also materials in the time. We have an impossible procedure – the cabinet ctee is not competent to decide. Some are relevant to the immediate future & some are not. We have been stepping up imports. Now you have reversed direction what effect do y has it got on your program & let us tell the public of its this – development etc. We need an overall reconstruction of our ideas on all these things. The Treasurer will produce a surplus on paper but in reality it is down the wind. We cut the states back. We can’t underwrite again next year unless we are going to make spectacular increases in taxation. Some of the state works are somewhat irrelevant – 29 Sydney rlys. On housing we have to consider housing in relation to production & we have to get these things straight in our minds. 64 ‘between’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 38 If we agree that our revenues will be down and our expenditure up then we must say to the states we will be prepared to carry out proposals a, b, c, d, e & f. This involves a new approach to the Loan Council. The L.C. can vote for what it likes but it can only get what the loan can give. We can say we will help to find money for certain projects and those only. I have never been content with the official view that you can’t produce a budget before August. Budget – May ’39. Page. Bring the states back to the agreement – let the C/w take its fifth if there is no agreement on the allocation. Holt. The fundamental thing is “What is the state of the Australian economy?” These papers smell of Canberra – but are they right. Are we in an inflationary situation, or a deflationary one. P.M. I agree. We must consider the validity of general paper. [Page 79] Spooner. We have either to hand back taxing rights or else take full control. Holt. On the general paper. – It deals too much with inflation in the broad. But in the consumer field we have a deflationary atmosphere. There is a shortage of basic materials but the other side is time, money is tight. There is a cost inflation, the goods are there. This position can move suddenly into recession or depression. We were moving there fast. We had notices about dismissals. [unable to read] were putting off 2,000 out of 6,000. This has now been checked. Ford’s Geelong are quite certain that they will be putting off men if our import policy is proceeded with without modification. Don’t take too much notice of social service payments. The employees put off are those who are not entitled to payment. And I could not fill our vacancies with people not in a job. We must beware of saying we are still in inflation. There are still heavy falls on the share market. 20% fall in attendance on race tracks. Gardner & Lang say their values are down 25% on last years figures. On average weekly earnings will be lower than last year – less overtime – Costs are likely to remain high for some time I question whether you should apply the same measures. It may be that the long term position is inflation along with some short term deflationary movements. It may well be that in certain selected sectors you may have to put more money into the community – eg. housing. Treasurer. I hope we will put some conclusions before Cabinet tomorrow. Hasluck. You have to think of the immediate effects of our import restrictions. Last year we run down balances by about ₤600m – we had the advantage of an extra ₤600m worth of goods. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 39 Holt. The textile people will not be able to liquidate until about December. [Page 80] PM. Put our imports at ₤1200m. Next year say ₤600 of the ₤1200m about ₤250m were stocks – So this years consumption – ₤950m and next year can be ₤850m. The difference there is not ₤600m but ₤100m. Holt. You have also to consider that demand is largely satisfied – eg, carpets, motor cars. Hasluck. Apart from the goods ₤600m represents a purchasing power which we will not have this year. Internally we have to spend at a rate ₤600m less than we did last year. Somewhere in the community someone will have to go 12% shorter than he did last year – assuming no fall in price. We do have to impose something equivalent to a 12% economy. McLeay. This is following the 1929 period. The real problem is rly rehabilitation, harbour facilities etc. What is stopping us is cost. We have no hope of improving the condition so long as we have 35hr week – Go slow – lack of incentive. But why should we shy off 44 hr a wk. The longer we leave it the longer we deceive ourselves. Casey. 4 problems – 1. budget, 2. domestic inflation, 3. our balance of payments, 4. sterling area b/p. Our efforts on 3 & 4 run counter to both 1 & 2. I am disturbed about lack of information on economic trends – perhaps the Treasurer has it. We do not hear until the situation is acute. Can we trust our advisers. C/wealth Bank & Treasury. Gov of C/w Bank always seems very cautious. At some time we will be faced with grievous shortage of goods in Aust. We can only face the situation if we can get overseas loans. We can’t get it from UK, Switzerland. We should be trying to get more than $150m if we can. Even the $5– 6m from Switz. – try to get something out of the U.K. I am told that Eildon is practically shut up now. I suspect that we don’t keep the states informed on the trends. Last year they got a shock when they came to Canberra. [Page 81] I know that the S.E.C. suddenly discovered the shortage of money. On an official level the state governments should be kept in touch – monthly, perhaps weekly. Treasurer. At least 4 conferences have been held between Treasury officers since we took office. They disbelieve what we say that about the loan market. P.M. They have the basic information in relation to loans. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 40 McMahon. I disagree with Treasury. Inflation has 2 phases, housing & industrial, there is a view that this is under control & if you can control food prices for a few months you wld be all right. The big thing we have to face is food prices – falling supply and increased demand locally & elsewhere. Our fall in living standards will be greater than 12%. We have to consider development & agriculture. Now that the position is unmasked we should tell the people that 40 hr. wk & Communism has brought us to our knees and we will have 20% fall in our standards – and let us look at wheat again. I would encourage increased production even if it means increased inflation. P.M. Suppose we agree to an inflation of 10% p.a. to get increased production. We need capital, to get it we need a stable monetary system. How do we get the capital. McMahon. It is not necessary to get great capital to get the production, give the wheat grower an incentive. PM. But we have to establish new farms etc and this requires a lot of capital. If we could borrow in big licks. Adjourn to 8.30pm. [Page 82] McBride. We set out to curb inflation – it was beginning to show results. There have been complaints as we might65 expected and altho’ we need to watch results carefully we should not run away from our original objective. Now we have the import restrictions. We must not confuse the two issues. We can do much in our local economy: we can do less with our overseas situation. We realised when we undertook defence, migration & development that we could not do it w/o overseas assistance whether that assistance was by borrowing or by increased prices. The problem is basically psychological, the public psychology has been corrupted, we have emphasised that working people did not do a fair days work but it was equally true that management slacked on the job. Managements responsibilities need to be brought home to them. The last Tariff Boards66 report said that industry was inefficient. For an all time low the administrative block in Canberra is a record. This is all a result of cost plus – & this is right under our eyes. Over the week-end I discovered a man who had more steel in his yard that at any other time. The best way to bring us to our senses is a little necessity. But now with import cuts the pressure is reduced. But unless we make it clear to the people there will be no psychological improvement. We can expand ₤A. at will but we can’t do that with other currencies. Other countries faced with hard facts have told their people that unemployment would come about w/o U.S. aid. And the same thing is now true of us. We need ₤100m 65 66 ‘have’ is inserted above the line. ‘general’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 41 worth of petrol products. If we cut these out there will be unemployment. I doubt whether we can cope with our problems w/o substantial overseas assistance. I do not accept that we are going to have 10% increase in costs each year and at the same time expect overseas borrowing. If the whole world’s costs were going up by 10% p.a. it would not matter but in U.S. prices are practically stable in spite of all the inflationary effect of their unrequited exports and their defence expenditure. We must not run away from our problems. [Page 83] We must put the States in full possession of the facts and then, but only then, give them to the people. We must have a flexible program of capital issues & advances but we should not move at the first whisper of criticism. But having set our house in order then we must seek and obtain overseas assistance. I am not convinced that we will fail to get assistance from U.S. & U.K. I don’t think that U.K. has begun to realise what these restrictions mean to them. PM. After the London cfce they should have had a good idea. McBride. I am thinking more of the manufacturers and business community. They have panicked now. Unless business is slackened off you have not got control of inflation & you can’t get on with development, migration & defence. People could go on for 12 mths with much reduced spending on things other than food. In U.K. subsidies have been removed & that is not like that our rigidities because of the ‘C’ series index. But that is our system. We must not panic as soon as we get a little bit of criticism. We must expect dismay, discontent and hostility unless we explain matters fully to the people. PM. Assume we will retain our broad policy we have a few hard problems – our approach to loan expenditure We have to have a figure in our minds. Secondly we have cut imports, the sequel is not only capital from abroad but also increased exports, wool cannot be changed much. We have wheat, meat, butter, sugar. Suppose we said it is a matter of importance to get them up and that requires an alteration to prices – wheat at world prices, butter on local market, abandon long term meat contracts. They then have a counter-effect on the inflationary situation. What is our number one objective increased production or financial stability. There is a powerful argument for stabilising costs. If we decide to do this we should intensify our measures to counteract the import [Page 84] restrictions. The other program involves a rising cost level. McBride. Surely the elements of cost must be ascertained. You have to get an acceptance of an order of priority in public works – you should rehabilitate rlys National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 42 instead of doing Eastern suburbs rly – that would put down freights, it would reduce trucks on the roads & so on. That would help to solve some of your rising cost problems. Price is not the only thing, you can have an increase in output by proper organisation & good equipment. If I give a man a good tractor and scoop he does a good job. We must get management alive to their responsibilities. That is what they do in U.S. & Canada. Look at what B.H.P. achieves they are satisfied with their men’s output. P.M. One aspect of this state matter. We had a special meeting of the Premiers. I told them there were limits to our resources & proposed committees on power etc. in an order of priorities. I had a meeting with the chairman and every committee & every state representative was instructed that in no circumstances could he agree to priorities of any sort. Spooner. It was a new move. Each officers had political instructions. There was a good deal of talk that did not get into the report and you may find the soil has been well prepared. There is not enough talk between federal and state committees ministers. The task has to be done more on the political level than on the professional level. Page. There is a great deal of govt expenditure that does not have any immediate return. We must face up to inflation as the key problem. Otherwise we will never be able to produce competitively. Gradually the C/w has refrained from using loan monies for C/w purposes. But C/w is entitled to 1/5 of what is raised. If we add to this 1/5 and add our overseas borrowing and use this for the purpose of development projects which the C/w approves. [Page 85] We never had anything to offer before. We have to get the general cost of production down. We have practically got the basic wage problem beaten. We have two years of imports into the country in one year. This would help us in our negotiations with the International Bank. Farmers are more concerned at getting costs down and than prices up. If we left credit restrictions on housing you would move housing out of the government now. We must get into a position where we can buy imports instead of doing without them. McEwen. We are in quite a critical situation. Labour said we were planning a depression. We were muddlers. Korea and the wool prices have combined to create a difficult situation which lends colour to what is being said. We must not misjudge the situation either politically or economically. Suppose we lost the Senate and then were refused a budget. We could lose the govt within 18 mths. So I wld prefer to stop short of perfection in our economic plans. No one can challenge us so long as there is reasonably full employment. That does not mean overfull employment. Our financial affairs must take a secondary place to our political judgement. The states cannot be overlooked. We must have a priority of public works in the States & we must insist on this. We must not lock ourselves up & decide on what the priorities will be and how much money we will give them. We don’t understand the States problem. They have committed themselves for millions of pounds worth National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 43 of orders. They can’t go on doing this of course. There is a difference in local inflationary effect from ₤25m simpliciter and ₤25m of which ₤10m is for overseas orders. In the long run we are so dependent on imports – no oil etc – there is no future for us unless we can buy our imports and this leads to the need to program exports. This must not be pushed aside [Page 86] by a too inflexible determination to hold the line. You have to program for an adequate volume of exports. If to stimulate export production you have to have priorities, you have to face harsh things on local prices. P.M. To look at one matter on the immediate export position – wheat. Assuming a reasonable season any extra wheat will be export wheat. You can’t offer the wheat grower anything better than the full price. Why not offer the wheat grower no tax on this crop of wheat. McEwen. I don’t agree in the precise form, but I do agree in general. Wheat does save dollars – Barley & oats are just as good as exports but they are not dollar earners. If we were merely to say we won’t collect tax this year. They wld reply we wld hold this the tax a year longer than we otherwise intend. Also if we could pay them promptly a conservative estimate of what their wheat wld realise. Anthony. Our basic objective must be to hold down our internal costs. Prices can fall in the future just as it does67 in the past. We have already got our butter at our imp price too high to be competitive. A year ago people were saying wool cannot fall. 5 yrs ago costs were 15s per lb. Now it is 40s–50s per lb to produce. We set out to arrest inflation. Our policy plus the fall in the price of wool has brought about a slowing down in the rate. Kelly C.J. and Galvin both think that inflation can be held. Honey & eggs have already priced themselves out of the market. For example we may need a little flexibility on housing. We need more up to date information on housing. In the last 3 years ₤850m has been spent on public works (apart from defence). Harrison. I am in agreement with McEwen. Let us have a [Page 87] reasonable amount of inflation but do not let it get out of control. If you have migration in large measure you must have a tendency towards inflation. You have to control inflation but you cannot cut it out completely. The present dullness in trade is only the result of our policy. I try to strike a balance. Unless we can get down our costs our policies will be frustrated. So far we have had a small amount of unemployment but it has increased the output per man/hour in those very industries, in some cases 20% to 30%. Some unemployment would improve efficiency. Industry is not organising itself efficiently, it pays any price just to get 67 ‘has’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 44 labour. I agree that we must watch the import restrictions to see that we do not build up useless industries. Spooner. The credit restrictions will have to be eased in April–May when income tax reductions assessments come in. Stocks are being held at a fantastically high level. Banks are making arrangements to carry reputable companies. Even greater credit will be needed to carry these stocks into the next season. The immediate danger of the present situation is business failures. People are very nervous as to what next years prices will be. I think that most of these stocks are involuntary and although this is temporary this word may mean 12 mths. Stocks are held all down the line. Treasurer draws attention to Appendix B on Bank Credit policy. Spooner. If expansion of credit at the present time is inflationary then I am an inflationist. I believe people holding stocks are willing to get out of stocks even at a loss. We are in a transition period and we must find a solution to the transition period even more importantly than the long term problem. If we want production we have to reduce taxation. PM. – On imported stocks there are 3 possibilities. [Page 88] A has greatly increased stocks – 1. If he gets no accommodation he has to sell at a sacrifice. This is counter-inflationary with a vengeance. 2. Jones holds on if he can – if you gave him long term accommodation this would be inflationary. 3. The Bank says we will finance you for your seasonable stuff to enable you to arrange an orderly liquidation of your stock. That is very close to what the bank has said. Spooner. You should not accept too readily the statement that people are holding stocks for a rise. McEwen. If we ran into a bad season we could have bad exports & then we would have bare shelves if we liquidate our stocks too quickly. Kent Hughes. If we had no import restrictions the banks would have to do what they are being forced to do by the central bank. Beale. We are working with blunt instruments. We have to do a lot of things. We have to have a look at the defence programme. Should we not look at overlapping between C/wealth and State departments. It is better not to aim at perfection in the cost of living. Let us merely aim at slowing down the inflation. Have we said the last word on hours of work and wages and incentives. Our financial relations with the states may well destroy us as a government. The most important thing is the National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 45 increases in our exports. We should not forget metals in this connection. Tungsten & molybdenum mean dollars. Canada may have to turn to us for bauxite. There is also a proposition to sell uranium ore. Treasurer. I will be bringing a paper tomorrow about our external position. - 11.pm __________ Adjourn to 10.15am. __________ [Page 89] Cabinet 18th March 1952 Submission No 31 B The Minister read the submission including the68 The Prime Minister commented on the impropriety of making available cabinet documents except to ministers. O’Sullivan. I recommend 2d. I could not establish that on an actuarial basis but I have been through areas & I know the industry is sick. Most of canefarmers are on rations with their banks. Assignments of sugar land in Abagourie area are going begging. We are getting the same price now as in the early 20’s yet wages have gone up 120% – even with the 2d increase it will be only 100%. The increase will apply only to ¼ of 575,000 tons. Our price69 is about half the Cuban price to U.K. ₤38 to abt ₤70. The ‘world price’ is difficult to arrive at. McEwen. There is a Sugar Ctee – which has to watch at what price sugar cld be landed in Aust. Jan ₤71, Feb ₤67, Mar ₤64. McBride. Why are we selling sugar at ₤40 per ton if world price is over ₤60. P.M. The U.K. are pretty smart about these deals. They create the illusion that it is difficult to sell these things. Holt. Why should we deal with the whole issue. We set out to make an interim adjustment. Treasurer. The broad policy & the future policy is to be subject to enquiry by McCarthy ctee. The immediate price adjustment since 1 July ’51. The ctee has recommended decided that increase is ₤6.9.0 a ton. The effective increase is ₤2,754,000. In recn they provide a profit margin of ₤1.1.0 per ton. There is a 68 ‘report of the committee and the comments of the industry representatives.’ is written above the line. 69 ‘to U.K.’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 46 deficiency of ₤3m plus which If you take ctees finding of ₤7.10.0 a ton – it applies only 145,000 tons now left – that is ₤1,100,000 to compensate for ₤2,754,000 which ctee has found. Therefore 2d would give ₤2,200,000 & this is more reasonable. P.M. There is a flaw in reasoning. You are saying the years increase in cost must be carried on the unsold balance. If you leave it to the last wk the increase might be 8d. [Page 90] Kent Hughes. How long can we subsidise U.K. ₤30 a ton for sugar. Treasurer Hasluck. This increase in costs is as between July & March 4 & they became progressively applicable. Spooner. I support the Ministers recommendation. We should be proud of our big concerns. The whole trend is to drive them out. If it is too high we will drive them get them get half of it back in taxation. Anthony. I am interested in this as two mills are in my electorate but I am concerned at the progressive rise in the price of sugar. CSR supports the 2d increase in a letter to me. Our people are very happy to get this contract at this price. There is no world market for sugar at ₤70. Canada won’t enter into this arrangement herself. We are chasing costs all the time. (Take up question of answer to CSR – delay.) Harrison. The ctee has brought back a report. Why do we re-open the subject. McLeay. The report is not accepted by the industry. Page. If we do something by way of subsidy and hold the position until May the McCarthy ctees report will70 be influenced by the rising basic wage. You would need about ₤2 ½ million. McMahon. I believe that it is a sick industry – we must embark on a positive policy & give the industry some incentive. We can look to the CSR for guidance. Francis. This is a good and progressive industry. Costs have risen the only question is how far. Townley. Last year we not one processor would buy the fruit because they could not complete. Jones & Co showed that the Scots were undercutting us on both jam & pulp. They are considering going to S. Africa. The smaller cos hesitated to give finance because the price was 5/- worse uncompetitive in London. Our production of jam is down. The Sugar concession ctee has ₤1m & if it drops below ₤500,000 a further call is made. [Page 91] 70 ‘otherwise’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 47 This year if there is an increase in price the committee will have to hand over the cash. McEwen. There are about 4 pts of view – the consumers point of view keep the price down. We are against this. We drove potato growers out of business, onions, butter. You cannot adopt this point of view. Our only status in this is the price control attitude. You have got to let the sugar & other industries be taken care of not on an accounting basis but on what will produce sugar. The real issue is between trying to stop the inflation and trying to get production. But if stopping inflation is going to stifle production then I am for production. It will kill the industry if we take a restrictive outlook. My contracts have covered us for inflation. You would be perfectly safe to take a stab at 1 ½ d and possibly 2 d. P.M. Page has suggested an interim subsidy pending investigation. This has dangers. It involves an addition to budget expenditure. You will then be up for a rise when the committee brings in its report. We will have great difficulties about not subsidising other industries. We will have pressure to subsidise the price of bread. The ctee says we agree on 1 d & so that is the minimum figure. I have a strong feeling that the industry is in a sick condition – we must take that into account. My own belief is that we give 1 ½ d. Put a time limit on the McCarthy committee – say three months unless the industry talks too long – eg R. – Muir. Unless we are prepared to subsidise against increases of costs I can see no escape from this. I wld err on the side of going beyond the report of the ctee. McBride. When I criticise the sugar agreement I think it is a very stupid one. I agree with you but would go further. The industry is in the doldrums. It can increase production quickly and it is a good export industry. I would have no objection to go to 2 d. I wld not argue much about the extra ½ d. [Page 92] I think that McCarthy ctee will go beyond the 2 d which I now suggest. Fadden. I do not think we can accept the subsidy area. I support 2 d. The industry will have to be told that they must accept McCarthy ctees report even if it is less than 2 d. Page. I agree with 2 d. Holt. I agree that a continued subsidy policy is bad. But a subsidy policy over the next 6 mths would be very useful. There is a downward tendency in real estate, shares etc. We are now making a decision to fix a cost structure at the peak. We should consider subsidy over the next 6 mths. Let us set aside something for subsidising jam & fruit. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 48 Anthony. I wld favour a subsidy for a limited period. Inflation is coming under control in the rest of the world. If our costs rise in Australia all our industries will be round our necks in a few years time. Spicer. I have some trouble in going beyond the 1 d. I wld go to the 1 ½. Hasluck. I find Holts & Anthonys argument convincing. I wld only go to 1 d. Kent Hughes. What is the basis of our policy for the next 6 mths. Until we have a real basic policy we will go into this everytime. Cannot you & Treasurer & someone else make a firm recommendation on the basic policy. I am in favour of 1 ½ . P.M. Do we take up the interim period until the findings of McCarthy ctee by subsidy or not? – Holt, Anthony, McMahon, Page only Price increase 1d Holt, Harrison, Hasluck 1 ½ - ? (11) 2d - ? Anthony. You may have to subsidise canning. McEwen. The sugar industry pays into a fund & the ctee must take care of the exports of the fruit & jam. Contributions are suspended until contributions fall to ₤500,000. 1 ½ increase wld not call on the fund. 2d wld call on ₤15,000 to 20,000 & the fruit exported. The ₤240,000 this year includes ₤100,000 to berry growers. ₤140,000 a rebate to bulk users of sugar. This was not a statutory obligation. 2.30pm [Page 93] Sugar Personnel of Ctee and the Terms of Reference Prime Minister reads the letter from C.S.R. dated x and also Mr Gair’s letter of x. It was pointed out that the Q’land Sugar Board was an interested party. McEwen. I think we must keep interested parties off the Tribunal. Fadden. What about Ralph Dobson – agreed if available Maintain71 Terms of reference with McCarthy – O’Sullivan, Holt & P.M. (c) Suggested by McEwen should be varied. If exports bring average costs lower than cost of production that would attack a very important principle. This to be considered. 71 ‘Discuss’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 49 McCarthy says June 30 is feasible. – This agreed to. “Consultants”? – If other parties are in the Sugar Industry – Ctee should be in. They can have advocates if they like. What is this sitting in. It is in the nature of a counsel assisting a commission. Commission will afford facilities to make representations before the committee & these will be able to cross-examine if they desire. They would help to guide the committee who to examine & what to ask. “All interested sections of the industry will be entitled to representation before the tribunal”. Who will be entitled to assist the tribunal by the presentation of cases and examination of witnesses. Have a cfce with ctee and reps to work out some formula. Anthony. If this is72 a favourable report will not the composition of the committee be very severely criticised & I wld support Donnollan. McEwen. Say “to aid in its finding the tribunal shall consult with representatives of these organisations. Fadden. Donollan ties the industry up, it tones down c/w govt, he satisfies the Q’land govt. P.M. The Q’land Sugar Board spends half the money & McCarthy would not want Donollan. Decision – McCarthy, Treasury, Customs, Donollan, Bell. We should say we are giving the industry every opportunity to present their case. [Page 94] Submission No 236 Wilson. Cabinet has dealt with the overall position – & now the question is what do we do about non-sterling. We now have a request for 3 answers to Cochrans letter. We probably have till Thursday to answer. All IveI could do on Thursday 6th was to give you some idea of what the figures would look like if Customs figures worked out along the lines they were thinking along. In On Thursday last I was working on the Customs view that we could get down to ₤110. It now appears that you can hardly do that w/o recalling licenses. – It may be desirable to recall, review, cancel73 etc at any rate to get some of them out of the first 72 ‘not’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 50 half of the year (July –Dec ’52). I have not been able to discuss this with Meere yet & he is inclined to agree. – S Look at the table on page 2. Shortfalls on the Chancellors targets. Dollar area is more important & 2nd half ’52 is more important. We are ₤38 ½ m. short. If we recall etc we might get that down to by ₤21m but that would involve very stern action. You might put proceeds of premium sales in – gradual accumulation74 You might make an arrangement with the monetary fund but that would involve firm arrangements about repayment over a short term. The other non-sterling countries involve a deficit75 of 36 – (we would have a smaller surplus than asked for). How little can we offer and get away with it. I believe we have to make a serious effort on the dollar side. We have two lots of gold. (1) the reserve (2) the gold that we are selling and getting dollars for. – This is the $40m mentioned above. The central reserves are separate from both of these. I am talking about setting aside the idea of “calling” the $71m in New York. But if we do it will come up in 1955 and quite clearly we have to reduce it to some degree in the meantime. We shd put $10m a year aside from gold for this. [Page 95] Half of the $71m held in London on short term securities. The lenders are just not interested in foreign bonds. We could refloat a little at the moment but it is very small. Yield is about 5%, 4.8% to 5%. We have other maturities falling in near to 1955. There is no tendency for gold output to increase. Gold is now $38 an oz – abt ₤16.10.0. Making a profit of ₤1 an oz on premium market. I don’t know what the reaction was in N.Z. to the recall & reissue of licenses. The consequences of not recalling dollar licenses are76 set out on p3, they would come down to ₤29 ½ m in the second half of the yr. __________________ Wilson summarises the paper. Two warnings stated. – Then we compare the probable results with the targets. Can we do anything better – 1. by reducing imports, 2. by emergency finance. You wld have to reduce licenses issued in 2nd half to ₤29 ½ m & you could not do it. We would not try to stop goods on the water, or in the pipeline, or covered by irrevocable letter of credit. – Suggest recalling licenses. You might reduce them to ₤62 & then ₤48. The ₤62 includes ₤13 I.B.R.D. but I doubt if you can get it down to that. ‘defer’ is inserted above the line. ‘from Nov. 3.9 1.3m per mth by Dec ’52 we wld have ₤18 ½ m - $40m.’ is written below the line. 75 ‘short fall’ is written above the line. 76 ‘D’ is inserted above the line. 73 74 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 51 … Wilson then explained the tables on page 4. The ₤110 plus the readjustment of the two halves you wld reduce shortfall by abt ₤21m (from 38 ½). … We would have to take get Melville to take sounding from the Managing Director of the Fund. There is some suggestion that the UK may be going for $300m & they may favour us get in first. Let us tell them as soon as possible. I would sooner wait until later in the year to draw the cash because we might have greater need of it then. On non dollar non sterling & shows about 50% cut on imports. This is a shortfall on a surplus. Then we get onto emergency finance. 8.15pm … P.M. proposes to draft proposals before next meeting. Next Wednesday 2.30pm __________________ [Page 96] Papua New Guinea – Agreed that matter should be left for administrative treatment. A target mentioned by Treasury to be aimed at. Pearlers into Broome – Holt’s suggestion agreed to. Note letter to go to Senator Scott – airmail – Wheat Freights … I oppose paying any freights on the mainland. Consider whether you wish to do anything abt Tasmania under S.96. Some proposals for considg next week. Our position wld be stronger with other states if we fixed up Tasmania. Townley. There has been an agitation in Tasmania. Both White77 & Cosgrove have been drawing attention to shipping & wheat freights. Don’t overlook political side. Give Falkinder a chance to make a statement. 77 ‘(Chief Sec)’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 52 McLeay. Unless ship goes tomorrow they will be out of wheat. Hobart position is permanent & until recently this was being paid. We have never allowed Tasmania to pay more for bread than on the mainland. Holt – Why should not the price of bread go up in Tasmania. It is cheaper in Hobart than Canberra is it not. McEwen – We cannot let one state go lazy on producing wheat – as NSW has done now. Fadden. Why can’t the Wheat Board have to. Suggestion that McLeay provides the ship & sends the flour & McEwen to bring78 proposals up next week. We will pay the freight this time to no keep the ball bouncing. Apple & Pear Proposals – Not a proposition for government. Chief Justice of High Court79 – Leave to leg A/G & P.M. [Page 97] Proposed committee on Import Licensing Proposal is for import budget committee – Treasury, PMs, T&C – Yes Consultative Ctee80 on import policy – submit thro’ Chairman anything that they want to go to Cab Ctee – in addition rural industries & retail trades to those mentioned on the list. Norman Nock81 (?Ashley Buckingham), R.C. Wilson – 82 What about Cecil Williams Pres. National Farmers Union. Individual problems still go to the Minister & the dept. Aust Pres of Nat Council of W. Take-off interior, works & housing, territories 83 Elsie Francis Byth Terms of reference approved. Cabinet ctee. P.M, Treasury, T&C only X Books [are in this act – free all works that are not works of fiction]. X Special consideration & make an announcement in a few days. ‘wheat’ is inserted above the line. ‘& other Judges.’ is inserted above the line. 80 ‘Yes’ is written above the line. 81 ‘Federal Pres.,’ is written above the line. 82 ‘W.S. Kelly’ is written above the line. 83 ‘Mrs L. Byth –’ is written above the line. 78 79 National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 53 Submission 237 … A suggestion was made that gold mining industry shd be stimulated. Wilson. We have a special ctee to consider export earnings & perhaps the ctee shd look into this. Hasluck. I think that there is a considerable prospect of export of minerals, manganese was held up 18 mths ago because Bureau of Min Res sd it did not want it to go out of Australia. Treasurer. What reply can we give to the Chancellor? Wilson. Proposal is to put some part of gold sales away. Try to get drawing from I.M.F. on basis of our 84 sales. Recall & review licenses. This would almost meet the dollar target & this would be as good as we can do. We wld not accept targets. Later we can consider how far it can go. As far as possible we wld try to time action so that we would help. 1. Agree on approach to I.M.F. 2. Recall of licenses – for review (not cancellation necessarily). [Page 98] PM. 1. Call in dollar licenses for review – we may can one, defer another. 2. Authorise T. to make soundings as to possibility of drawing from I.M.F. No sum mentioned. Also enquire whether we can make one package and arrange satisfactory repayment. 3. In the light of these two enquiries work out how much we have to do on gold. Spooner. Can you deduce from that the % order of cancellation required to hit the target. P.M. If recalls would impair our productive capacity that gives a basis on which we calculate the drawing sought. We must go within a measurable distance of the Chancellors target for 2nd quarter 1952. Wilson. Should we make more strenuous attempts to make savings on other nonsterling countries. This is not so urgent. We will fall short of our targets but we will 84 ‘gold’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 54 be in surplus. The Chancellor will not argue with the same fervour. I think we may get by with something less than the target suggested. McMahon. We should make a better attempt than this on non-dollar non sterling. Spooner. These dollar allocations have already been squeezed. We can only get a stop gap solution on that by cuts. Wilson. The authentical result is not so severe on non-dollar, non-sterling because there is more non essential imports from sterling. P.M. Tell me Wilson, Why can’t we say – This looks like the picture. What we have done is so & so. We are examining this. We will so far as we can bear down on non dollar non sterling. We don’t know what this will bring. Wilson. We can say that & should do so. [Page 99] Treasurer. There is need for a record of ₤A500m f.o.b. Wilson. All the big stuff is in the administrative section. I wld sooner have a higher ceiling than no figure. P.M. If you have a safely low ceiling you may go over it occasionally. Spooner. Can your work a ceiling of ₤500m if ₤130m of it is to go for petroleum. It is nearly ¼ of the total. PM. We have no choice in this matter – we either get dollars from the pool or we go without. McBride. We can’t do without petroleum and but perhaps we can do w/o cars. Wilson. You were given prospective figures in December. We make a regular monthly report of our best estimate of the statistical position as we can see it. We could do this through the dollar ctee. PM. The complaint was not that we did not have figures – but that we took no action on it. The real trouble was we got no advice based on it. The Treasury & the Bank are too cagey about figures. I got some figures over the weekend. Total imports October 111.4 Nov 97.7 Dec 68.5 Jan National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 55 There was all the indications of a down turn. In the face of these all the indications were good. Then Jan Feb 178 105 So ins we had a sudden step up in Jan. McEwen. Is there no way of knowing in Dec what the Jan figures will be. The publication of these figures could be turned against us. Why was the government not more watchful. [Page 100] Wilson. We have some indicators. I asked C/w Bank to have issued letters of credit figures. But these figures confirmed the down turn. We got space bookings while we were in London. That showed we were in for heavy imports in Jan & Feb. We had some variable figures from the continent – some indication of a turn down. Recorded exports from UK & we are endeavouring to build up this indication of advance movts. __________________ [Page 101] Cabinet Matters arising out of imports. Books ₤3,306,000 1950/51 – This would be abt ₤1m cut on present importations. Add to that ½ m a year coming in by parcels post. Minister suggests maximum for people – at present this is cut out by exchange control. In US. we have permitted periodicals but not books. Customs feels it can come to some arrangement with importers. Rec. 100% on base year & individual importations up to reasonable amt. 1. books imported through trade – 100% of base year. 2. particular considn of indiv. importers – immediately – considering whether any upward limit necessary. Holt. There are a lot of other things which are very vital & this will be a good precedent. P.M. Reads a letter from Ferguson. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 56 O’Sullivan to check up on the volume of letters of credit irrevocable. P.M. Raises the question of import review – the ₤110m. O’Sullivan refers also to the “undertakings” given by Heinz, Gen Motors, etc. Will let know when they come back tonight on this matter. Review of Economic Policy […] 3.25pm Housing Spooner. By large you can only get ₤1750 on loan. Holt quotes falling issue of permits. Spooner. I disagree with Treasury memo. Rent control to is driving speculator out. This is throwing a burden on government building. Also govt is being forced to build for resale by the limit of advances. Townley – Soldr Trust Funds – No trust money for real estate. Rural Bank of NSW. No old homes since 1950. Bldg Soc – at least 25% in 12 mths. Mod & Perm. No lending. Nat Bk. Little money. C/w Bk. Old customers new houses. [Page 102] At present 450 applns a month for new homes as against 250 a year or so ago. NSW Housing C/ion can’t enter into any more contracts for 18 mths even if they get the same amount as last year. 85 Townley. Why not sell houses under Housing agreement. Anthony. The no. of houses under constn. Wait for March figures. Holt. Is there any reason why C/w Bank should not lend more. McMahon. We haven’t got a proper target – Coombs sd 75,000. P.M. 1. Loan Council – May 1. 2. Some slackening of Bank policy – meetings today – selective – defence industries & bldg etc & of trading banks liquidity. If some effort is needed for Bldg societies & we have a figure for state housing a day or so later. 85 ‘Spooner’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 57 McBride. US. housing program is 23% lower this year than last. Can we go on & borrow with them. We should not make any decision on the inadequate facts now before us. P.M. We have to determine whether the anti-inflationary policy is still our main objective. He reads his notes pointing out that it does not include a section on primary production and bank policy. … Holt. There may be some figures to give a picture of increasing prodn eg coal. Also you should prove that there is still an inflation. I am putting out the institutional statement on employment. There has been no sharp increase in unemployment altho the trend is86 towards fewer vacancies. A disturbing factor is the alleged demand for rural labour. We may have to treat migrants as dilutee ( ) – ie. govt pay a proportion of their salaries87 Suggest you include a para on employment situation. Anthony. In general I agree with your statement. In Lyne electorate I visited Nestle’s factory. [Page 103] People who came in to make powdered milk for export but the margin has disappeared. You can price yourself out of exports. At the Loan Council meeting we should step up our propaganda to tell the people that the States are to get 100% of the loan money & we are not going to tax the people to pay for state loans. Further we should have a propaganda drive on the lightening of the money market generally. This is a natural result of the fall in prices. P.M. We have a Cabinet ctee on this for some time – but who is the man. I made a suggestion to our party organisation. McBride. I hope we don’t start a campaign on what we tell the Premiers. Let us make up our mind, let us try to sell the idea to the Premiers. We will never win the propaganda battle, they are telling them pleasant things. We must get them to place their works in some order of priority. Our policy is right. Can we not convince them. Some people believe that we are imposing hardships unnecessarily. (? Can we not get out a C/wealth case – for the premiers and perhaps for the public. 86 87 ‘still’ is inserted above the line. ‘wages.’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 58 We will not succeed unless we can persuade the public premiers of the correctness of what we want. Let them discuss each item seriatim – housing, production etc. PM. The Premiers are talking about cuts – but in fact we have built them up – that has not got through to the public mind. Our approach was one of unprecedented generosity. The kind of problem we discuss is not their problem. They only want money to be provided. Look at the contribution of the Premiers to the Anti-Inflation conference – except Playford. McBride. While you speak in general terms they can be vague – but if you bring it down to item by item they can’t talk generalities on that. [Page 104] Page. I agree with P.M. All they are interested in is how much money they can get for works. We must get down to priorities on works. In preparation of a88 statement if you should not talk of increased taxation the premiers will take this as an invitation – don’t use word deflation. Beale. Liberal opposition in NSW & Q. NSW organisation is unable to be propaganda agency that it should be. You should meet the whole state opposition & get them on side – P.M. I am doing that. McMahon. We should have confidence – look at mfg industries they are cock a hoop, we can give incentives & encouragement to primary products. Our own supporters can kill themselves with their own misery. We have had controls but we haven’t touched the basic indust factors, defence, migration, public works expenditure, private investment, social services. Holt. We could89 be alert. Don’t get ourselves too firmly out on the anti-inflationary limb. People may not have the chips to buy the goods soon. I would like to see 4 or 5 leading bankers tell us what they think of the economy. Hasluck. These are not new problems. We have 2 problems 1. handling the Premiers, 2. the broad national interest. We should expose the particular aspects of the national problems & let these be public – housing, budgeting, overseas trade. P.M. I don’t think that there is much chance of a deflation. Spooner. I don’t like the situation – bank credit, some unemployment, no willingness to take a risk, share prices down, house prices down. 88 89 ‘your’ is written above the line. ‘must’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 59 Fadden. Is anyone going to suggest we alter Bank policy w/o consultation with the Bank – or in capital issues policy. Should the states have an open go on public works. What is it that we can change. Beale. I would like to hear what the bankers have to say. Holt. Capital issues control is meaningless at the moment. This year we had ₤225m for a loan program. If we cut them back to (say) ₤150m – a big proportion of this will be [Page 105] imports. Let us suppose ₤50m committed. So the level for Australian employment or works will be reduced. – 8.pm. 8.30pm Marcus Clark litigation In Communist case there was some reference to declarations. We have set them out & there is a summons for directions – that means oral evidence by PM. I think it should be done. O’Sullivan & Harrison90 have some doubts on the political wisdom of this. Can you reserve this point until after the validity of the regulations is determined. A/G to talk to solicitor on this. Economic Policy McMahon. re Social Services. I was thinking of possible additions to Social Services. O’Sullivan argues that ‘uneconomic’ is a more useful word than ‘inessential’. Anthony – do not use ‘budget surplus’, express it in a way that91 there is no money in kitty. Page. In Para 7. Increased taxation rates do not mean an increased taxation yield. Holt. What is said now does not represent the last word. __________________ 90 91 ‘& McMahon’ is inserted above the line. ‘implies that’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 60 Submission No 235 Ministers expressed the view that C/w should get out of this company. Another question was why can’t we sell our rights. Suggested that decide to sell & leave method for advice from experts. Big The relation between the overdraft and paid up capital was adversely affected commented upon. Agree in principle that should get out & seek expert advice on whether there is advantage to be gained in taking up shares. [Page 106] Submission No 234 I have since had the draft of a quota control prepared. Dept says it is impracticable in operation. Customs does not think that even 1/- a gallon would have much effect. Unless there is some restriction the fixed target cannot be hit. Dept thinks that rate of increase will fall. Customs suggests that a ceiling be put on the present value of petroleum products imported. P.M. Are we prepared to go in for a wholesale system of rationing unless we go to this we have to let it come in. You have to license it up to current consumption. This fixed ceiling of ₤500m. – If you go over on A, do you go under in B. I don’t see how you work a fixed ceiling. I do not think the non-dollar target is as inflexible as all this. O’Sullivan. Customs are interpreting the ₤500A as a target & not as an inflexible ceiling. P.M. said we should not put an additional burden on overseas currency for the purpose of building up stocks. Look at that a little later, but don’t let them deplete them. ? As to whether there should be an announcement? Report of Inter-departmental Dollar Ctee Suggestions agreed to. 10.30am National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 61 [Page 107] [27 March 1952] Cabinet 27.3.52 The Minister outlined the submission. Long term contract and provision of heavy aircraft has not been put to ANA previously. Their financial position is a self-inflicted wound. They would not agree to an increase in fares – this might have had 3/4m from this source and ¼ m perhaps from freights. The shipping Cos have raised freights by 500% over a period of years. ANA are trying to force the hand of the government. Treasurer. Position is obviously difficult. We have to keep ANA going. Politically we can’t let TAA go. We need to find a formula. ANA want a monopoly. ANA has not had a fair share of the business but present proposals should meet this. I believe that ANA are bluffing. McMahon. ANA are not fooling. Holt. I understand their proposal to be that ANA would want to control the amalgamated show. Treasurer. I am opposed to an amalgamation. P.M. We have never offered a long term contract. Treasurer. I am in agreement with a long term contract for mails. McBride. I think the Ministers proposal has much to commend it. I believe that they are determined to go out of the business. Now is a good time to sell their aircraft. That won’t last long. We would have to take their aircraft over. That would be a compulsory acquisition – just terms – international value of aircraft. We cannot give a long term contract on passengers, we can on mails. We can’t commit a future government to a policy of purchasing aircraft for them. Politically it is an attractive proposal. They will probably be reject it out of hand. There has been delay in bringing this matter before Cabinet. I do not think that any other group will bring private capital into airlines. Harrison. I am attracted by the ministers submission and it is in line with the policy. But if Holyman is going to get out there well then be a government monopoly. [Page 108] We will have to decide whether we continue as a government monopoly. Should we not then form a company with some private capital. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 62 Hasluck. Suppose ANA wants to go out, its only possibility of salvage would be a merger. Treasurer. What proportion of ANA relates to intra state trade. Ant McBride. I think it would be only 10% to 15%. Anthony. They would hand these over to subsidiaries. They can make a capital gain of ₤3m if they go out and I think they will want to get out at the top of the market. They bought these planes with dollars especially for Australian use. (McBride. I question that last statement.) Without another plane we could carry about 85% of the traffic interstate. We would have to call on B.O.A.C. and Qantas. But 8 or 10 heavy planes would suffice as an addition. McBride. I would not consent to over-run the planes. Beale. If they were offered fair terms and Q’land, what would they say. Anthony. I think they want nothing less than a merger. ANA Holt. Has the proposal been put up of one govt and one semi-govt. Would they feel there was a guarantee of security in this. On what is before us I would be opposed to a merger. But we would need to say more precisely what we are prepared to do to see that they are treated fairly. I do not say they are bluffing but they might reconsider. Francis. I agree with the ministers proposal. They have not been very helpful. Page. We should92 accept the bona fides of these people. They have started a new service to Tasmania. We should examine the ministers proposal fully with them. Townley. We started to investigate the future of TAA. If private enterprise is forced out by us we are in a bad position. But I think ANA have not acted fairly and have not been frank with us. If the mail is split up they would more than offset their loss. Perhaps they would [Page 109] like to get out quickly. But I believe that they fear for their security. Why can’t some formula be worked out to keep both air-lines in the field. Anthony. ANA would not talk about the mail sharing etc. McLeay. I support Anthony93 We will go down as dirty dogs if we put ANA out of business. Look at Nixons para 33. We must not let such a great enterprise be 92 93 ‘not’ is inserted above the line. ‘Townley.’ is written above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 63 destroyed. I would be in favour of a merger. – (?but on their terms?) We must keep them in the business at all costs. Beale. Our job is to keep both these ships afloat. We must approach ANA along the lines of the ministers proposal. Is there anything in getting out of intra-state traffic in Queensland. His present proposals (Anthony. TAA are losing ₤70,000 a year on Q’land) have never been put to them in a block. ANA would not refuse a good deal. But they must realise that a Labour govt could re-establish TAA even if we agreed to ANAs present proposals. PM. I have read a file from TAA & talked to TAA on Monday night. It is not only what we decide but how it is presented to the public. There must be some limit to the propaganda that comes out of this room. Last night at 10.30 we decided not to make a statement about petrol. Irvine Douglas was told by a Minister that it was not worth while putting a statement out at that time. When a decision emerges it ought to emerge on our terms. What we say to ANA is vital in this matter. We should say – 1. We are against a monopoly – competition has produced good results, a merger means a monopoly however it is disguised. We think there is room for two major airlines (not 3 or 4). They must be able to operate on a basis of solvency. 2. How do we achieve it. They say a share of mails & govt business is so insecure that they can’t go to the public for capital. I don’t know where any govt has repealed an act ratifying an [Page 110] agreement. Therefore I think there is need of statutory form, & a long term operation – 10 to 15 years. We offer them a share of the air mail business, access to govt business. We enter into an arrangement involving a reduction in air-route changes. We fund that in replacement of94 planes (define) govt will act as financier for both companies because they are so useful in war. Then we provide for a rationalisation of routes, timetable & freights & fares. To provide for this we set up a small body with indept chairman to determine disagreements. This to be in the legislation. If you like we will make it a 3 cornered contract. This can be altered only by a statutory repudiation of such a contract. If that goes in proper form to ANA & we give it to the press in proper form. Unanimously agreed to Major details 94 ‘heavy’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 64 15 years is favoured to 10 years. Francis remarks the favour that public servants favour TAA a rationalisation of time-table will Spooner. We should not make public what your proposal is – you may need room to manoeuvre – it creates public confusion. We need secrecy & expedition. I would wait until ANA gives it some publicity. Harrison. Osborn asks that no decision be made public until the party has had a chance to consider it. Page. It would be better to bring them up & give them the letter and make your statement then. Anthony. We are criticised for the lack of a firm decision and it needs to be made public. McBride. I would be opposed to a detailed statement but we can say we decided against merger but to discuss means of carrying out on terms of fair competition. [Page 111] McMahon. Why not try to arrange a statement which is satisfactory to them. I would regard the statement as provocative from ANAs point of view. Pages – proposal is generally acceptable. __________________ Holt. Case of Japanese wives who married ex-servicemen. Japan is the only country95 which has a ban operating – many are cases of hardship. I recommend that in genuine cases wives be allowed in. Francis. I have no objection to Parkers wife coming in – he is no longer a soldier. I don’t like the idea of admitting Japanese wives. They are having great trouble in America. But if there are only 12 I wouldn’t oppose it. – Agreed to – but no statement to be made. 1pm __________________ Resumed 2.45pm … 95 ‘in respect of’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 65 Holt. Perhaps we can provide from our own resources for our own people and get loans (or funds) from U.S. or elsewhere for migrant assistance. Page. In the ‘30s the Dutch were prepared to bring abt ₤1000 each. Treasurer. I would like to know what is happening under the soldier settlement scheme. I wld like a report on that. I understand that both NSW & Q have played a pretty scurvy game. McEwen. If you want the fellow without capital you have to provide the capital but you also have to make the industry attractive. McBride. S. Aust has land that will take years to develop – & I believe Tas. has also. McMahon. McEwens submission is long term – but what we need is short term solutions. Let us look at existing farms – wheat, mutton & lamb, & sugar etc. Take them in order, consider incentives or taxation reductions etc. McEwen. My long previous submission dealt with those things – fertiliser, labour, accommodation on the farms & the farm supporting industries. [Page 112] McBride. We ought to extend our wheat appeal to barley & oats. Let us make a statement as to what the govt is going to do. P.M. We would get further by taking a particular industry & working it out – say dairy or wheat. 96 Our two immediate problems are 1. inflation & 2. immediate encouragement of exports. Page. If we could have the information as on page ? Holt. I think this long range planning is essential. Hasluck points out that he cannot tell people what can be done to assist people in the territories especially New Guinea. McEwen. I brought to the Cabinet proposals for wheat and dairy. You said no – our policy is stabilisation. I have dairy products up in a paper for this week. P.M. – 1. Special initial depreciation 2. Rural housing – farm accommodation 3. Wheat tax projects All these things need to be looked at today. 96 ‘(McEwen. I will do that).’ is inserted above the line. National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 66 Persons mentioned Name Full name and position Anthony Hubert L ANTHONY, Postmaster-General and Minister for Civil Aviation Basten Henry B BASTEN, CMG, author of 1952 Report ‘On the turn round of ships in Australia’ Bate Henry J BATE, Liberal parliamentary representative from NSW Beale Oliver H BEALE, Minister for Supply Bell BELL, Proposed Sugar Board representative Black Eugene R BLACK, President World Bank Bland Henry A BLAND, Secretary, Department of Labour and National Service Bolton Sir George L BOLTON, Advisor to the Bank of England Brown Allen S BROWN, Secretary, Prime Minister’s Department Buckingham Ashley BUCKINGHAM, proposed member Committee on Import Licensing Burchett Wilfred BURCHETT, Australian journalist and reporter Butlin Sydney J BUTLIN, Professor of Economics, University of Sydney Byth Elsie F BYTH, Proposed committee member Calwell Arthur A CALWELL, Opposition Leader Casey Richard G CASEY, Minister for External Affairs Chifley Joseph B CHIFLEY, Prime Minister 1945 to 1949 Clark ? Marcus CLARK, Australian Author Clarke Colin CLARKE, prominent economist of the 1930s who had formulated a price stabilisation model Cochran COCHRAN, British financial representative Coombs Dr. Herbert C COOMBES, Governor Commonwealth Bank Cosgrove Robert COSGROVE, Premier of Tasmania Daly Frederick DALY, ALP member of Parliament Dobson Ralph DOBSON, Proposed Sugar Tribunal member Donollan Joseph DONOLLAN, Chairman of the Sugar Board Dunk Sir William DUNK, Chairman of the Public Service Board Fadden Sir Arthur W FADDEN, Treasurer Falkinder Charles W FALKINDER, Liberal member for Franklin, Tasmania Francis Josiah FRANCIS, Minister for the Army Gair Vince GAIR, Queensland Premier Galvin John M GALVIN, Commonwealth Conciliation Commissioner Gardner & Lang Property management and valuation company Harrison Eric J HARRISON, Vice-President of the Executive Council, Minister for Defence Production National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 67 Hasluck Paul M HASLUCK, Minister for Territories Holland Sir Sidney HOLLAND, New Zealand Prime Minister 1949 to 1957 Holt Harold E HOLT, Minister for Labour and National Service, and Minister for Immigration Holyman Sir Ivan HOLYMAN, Managing Director of ANA Airlines Jones Sir George JONES, Air Marshal, Chief of the Air Staff, Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee Kelly C J KELLY, Chief Judge of the Arbitration Court Kelly William Stanley KELLY, Chairman, Joint Dairying Industry Advisory Committee Kent Hughes Wilfred S KENT-HUGHES, Minister for the Interior and Minister for Works and Housing Lloyds Lloyds of London underwriting firm Mair Robert Bruce MAIR, Member, Australian Broadcasting Control Board McBride Philip A McBRIDE, Minister for Defence McCarthy Mortimer Eugene McCARTHY, Chairman, Tariff Board McEwen John McEWEN, Minister for Commerce and Agriculture McGovern Patrick Sylvesta, Federal Commissioner of Taxation McLeay George McLEAY, Minister for Shipping and Transport McMahon William McMAHON, Minister for the Navy and Minister for Air Melville Leslie G MELVILLE, Assistant Governor Commonwealth Bank Menzies Robert G MENZIES, Prime Minister Meere Sir Frank MEERE, Comptroller-General of Customs Muir Ronald James Samuel MUIR, General Secretary,, Queensland Cane Growers Council Nash Richard H NASH, Labour Senator from Western Australia (Died December 1951) Nicholas H S NICHOLAS, author of Report on Remuneration of Parliamentarians Nock Norman NOCK, proposed member Committee on Import Licensing O’Sullivan Neil O’SULLIVAN, Minister for Trade and Customs, Leader of the Government in the Senate Osborne Packers Robert Gumley OSBORNE, Chairman, Australian Broadcasting Control Board Sir Frank PACKER, Newspaper owner Page Earle C PAGE, Minister for Health Parker Gordon PARKER, BCOF Australian serviceman married to Japanese woman Sir Thomas PLAYFORD, Premier South Australia Lionel James PRICE, Deputy Director-General, Commonwealth Department of Works Playford Price Ricketson Staniforth RICKETSON, Member, Melbourne Stock Exchange Sargood Denis Herbert SARGOOD, President, Melbourne Chamber of National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 68 Commerce Scott Malcolm F SCOTT, Liberal Senator from Western Australia Shedden Sir Frederick G SHEDDEN, Secretary, Department of Defence Spender Sir Percy C SPENDER, Ambassador to USA Spicer John A SPICER, Attorney General Spooner William H SPOONER, Minister for National Development Townley Athol G TOWNLEY, Minister for Social Services Tyrell Sir Murray TYRELL, Official Secretary to the Governor-General White WHITE, Chief Secretary Tasmania Williams Cecil WILLIAMS, President National Farmers Union Williams Dudley Cadell WILLIAMS, First Assistant Secretary, Department of Shipping and Transport Wilson Dr Harold WILSON, Secretary, Treasury Wilson R C WILSON, proposed member, Committee on Import Licensing Yeend Sir Geoffrey YEEND, Parliamentary Liaison Officer, Prime Minister's Department National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 69 Abbreviations and symbols Abbreviation/symbol Interpretation % per cent & and ➼ yes, ok ∴ therefore /- or s shillings ? unable to transcribe […] crossed out text unintelligible ‘53 1953 ₤ pound 9d 9 pence a/c account a/cts accountants A/G or AG Attorney General abol abolition abt. about ag or agric agriculture or agricultural agric or ag ec agricultural economics altho’ although ANA Australian National Airlines ANZAM Australia New Zealand and Malaysia appln application appr approach approx approximate ASB Allen S Brown ass associated att attachment Aus, Aust, A’ns or Austn Australian/s batt battalion bd board BH Broken Hill BHAS Broken Hill Associated Smelters BHP Broken Hill Proprietary bkrupt bankrupt bldg building BOAC British Overseas Airways Corporation National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 70 Br British Br. C/w or British C/wealth British Commonwealth C&A Commerce and Agriculture?? c/ion commission C/w or C/wealth Commonwealth cab Cabinet Cba Canberra cfce conference cl clause cld could Co/s or coy/s company/s considg considering considn consideration constn construction contd continued contn contribution COR Commonwealth Oil Refineries CRO Commonwealth Relations Office CSR Colonial Sugar Refining ctee/s committee/s d penny or pence Dec December def defence def. prod. ctee defence production committee dept department dev development divn/s or divis division/s econ economic Eng England espec. especially ess essential exec executive EZ or Elec Z Electrolytic Zinc Feb February fm from FOB free on board g’tees guarantees National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 71 GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gen general GG Governor General gov governor govt./s government/s high c/m/s high commission/s hr hour IBRD International Bank of Reconstruction and Development IMC International Monetary Fund IMF International Monetary Fund incl including indept independent indiv individual infn information int internal Int Bank International Bank Jan January Jap Japan or Japanese lb Pound (weight) LC loan council legn legislation m. or mil million M.E. or M. East Middle East max maximum Melb. Melbourne mem memorial mfg manufacturing min minute min res mineral resources Mod & Perm bank? movts movements mth/s. month/s N north N. Africa North Africa N.A.T.O. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation N.S.W New South Wales nat national Nat Bk National Bank National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 72 No number Nov November NT Northern Territory NW north west NZ New Zealand Oct. October opposn. opposition Oseas overseas oz ounce p per or page P.M. Prime Minister para paragraph parlt parliament Pdcn, prod, producn, prodn or pdn. production perm permanent PO or P office post office POW prisoner of war pres president Q, QLD or Q’land Queensland rec. reconnaissance rec/s or recn/s recommendation/s reps representatives rly/s railway/s RSSAILA Returned Sailors, Soldiers and Airmens Imperial League of Australia S Africa South Africa S Aust South Australia s&d sterling and dollar S.E. Asia South East Asia SA South Australia Sat’day, Sat or Satdy Saturday sd said sec secretary sen senator shd should SMH The Sydney Morning Herald soc society soldr soldier National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 73 sq squadron/s sub submission sub-ctee sub-committee subs submarines Switz Switzerland T&C Trade and Customs?? TAA Trans Australia Airlines Tas Tasmania taxn taxation thru or thro through Thur. Thursday Treas or T Treasury trib tribunal Tues Tuesday UK. United Kingdom US.or USA United States of America Vic or Vict Victoria W. Europe Western Europe W.A. Western Australia w/o or witho without Wed Wednesday wk/s week/s wld. would yr/s year/s National Archives of Australia transcript Title: Cabinet Notebook 1/14, 1952 Reference: NAA: A11099, 1/14 Page 74
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