Rapidly Growing Cities and their
impact on Solid Waste Management
Professor David C Wilson
Independent Waste & Resource
Management Consultant
Imperial College London
ISWA Presidential Advisory Committee,
7-8 June 2013, Vienna
My brief for this presentation
PART 1: Forecasting future waste quantities
1. Population development
2. Rural - urban migration
3. Regional changes
4. Forecasting future waste generation
PART 2: Implications for the waste sector
5. Current status/ recent progress of
SWM in developing countries
6. Future priorities
Estimated and projected world population
(billions, 1950-2100)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Estimated and projected world population
by region (medium variant, billions, 1950-2100)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Distribution
of world
population
(medium
variant)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Population change by region 2010-2100)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Population of Europe and Africa
Note:
this medium
variant
projection
assumes a
significant fall
in fertility rates
in Africa
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Population also migrating to cities
N
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Urban growth mainly in Asia and Africa
% increase projected
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Distribution of world urban population
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 1960
2 Megacities
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 1980
4 Megacities
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 2011
22 Megacities
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Percentage of urban population and
location of large cities, 2025
34 Megacities
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
Total population by city size class (millions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012
The World’s largest 50 cities: 2010 - 2100
Region
Europe
2010
4
North America
Japan
6
2
3
2
1
1
Latin America
Asis (excluding Japan)
9
6
4
23
23
16
4
5
3
2
9
25
Middle East –
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Range of populations
(million)
Numbers of megacities
2025
2050
2
2075
2100
0
6-36
7-36
16-42
23-58
17-88
21
27
50
70
83
Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:
‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20th century
Waste per capita increases with income level
High-income
countries:
• Waste per capita
doubled since 1980
• Perform worst
Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012).
Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.
Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.
Predicted decreases in waste generation
per capita at high levels of GNI/Capita
Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:
‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20th century
Waste Generation by Region (Current)
1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW
OECD generates ~ 50% world’s waste – “outlier”
China produces 70% of EAP region waste
Source: Dan Hoornweg:
data from ‘What a Waste’,
2012, World Bank
Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025)
2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase)
Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier
Source: Dan Hoornweg:
data from ‘What a Waste’,
2012, World Bank
* Bubble size proportional to total urban
population
Total solid
waste quantities
and composition
by income level,
now and 2025
Source: ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank
Waste
composition
Waste composition
100%
Affected by:
• Geography: building
materials, ash content (HH
heating), green waste.
• Climate: Ulan Bator,
Mongolia ash is 60% of the
MSW in winter, 20% in
summer.
• Income: Wealthier nations
have more complex waste,
lower organic content
• Culture: differences in food
consumed (eg, packaged or
fresh), electronic equipment
used changes nature of
waste
90%
80%
70%
60%
Others
Metal
50%
Glass
Plastic
40%
Paper
Organic
30%
20%
10%
0%
Current
2025
Low income
Source: ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank
Current
2025
Lower Middle
income
Current
2025
Upper Middle
income
Current
2025
High income
CBO collection in
Ouagadougou, Burkina
Faso
Modern landfill in
Hong Kong
Selling recycled bottles,
Dhaka
CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES
FOR SWM AROUND THE WORLD
Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse; David C Wilson;, Mansoor Ali
Simplified ISWM analytical framework
Public health –
Collection
Environment
– Disposal
Physical
3Rs – Reduce,
Reuse, Recycle
Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.
and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management
in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat
Inclusivity – User and
Provider
Governance
Sound
Institutions
& Pro-active
Policies
Financial
Sustainability
© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis
Waste Management Drivers in what is
now the developed world: 1020-2020
Resource
management
© DCW
Climate change
Environment
- disposal
Public Health
- collection
Rediscover
recycling
Resource
value
1020
1850
Recent drivers
in the ‘North’
1970
1990
2000
2010
2020
Key Drivers in the developing world
© DCW
Environment
- disposal
Public Health
- collection
Resource
value
1020
1850
1970
1990
2000
2010
2020
1st driver: Public Health – Focus on Collection
Direct: Increased incidence of sickness
among children living in households
without a waste collection service:
Data from Demographic and Health surveys:
o Diarrhoea – rate x 2 or more
o Acute respiratory infections – rate x 6
Burning uncollected waste, Venezuela
Indirect: waterborne disease via
blocked drains and
flooding
Waste blocking
a storm drain.
Bamako, Mali
Dengue fever clean-up campaign, Quezon City
Photo credits clockwise from top left: © Jeroen Ijgosse; Erica Trauba; SWAPP
Public health – collection coverage
World Bank website: 30-60% in low & middle income countries
100%
Wilson, D.C., Rodic L.,
Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A.
and Alabaster, G. (2012).
Comparative analysis of
solid waste management in
20 cities.
Waste Management &
Research, 30, 237-254.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
GNI per capita (000' $)
50000
30000
8000
10000
6000
4000
2000
700
900
500
0%
1
Collection / sweeping coverage (%)
90%
Income level
High
Upper-middle
Lower-middle
Low
2nd driver:
Environment –
Focus on
phasing out
open dumps
Top: On Nooch,
Bangkok, 1983
Bottom: Jam Chakro,
Karachi, 2001
Photos: David C Wilson;
Jonathan Rouse
Environmental control – controlled disposal
1990s baseline: open dumping still dominant
in middle and low-income countries
Income Level
State of the art
disposal
Simple
controlled
disposal
Uncontrolled
Disposal
High
100%
0%
0%
Upper-middle
75%
20%
5%
Lower-middle
61%
32%
7%
Low
29%
24%
47%
Substantial progress has been made, particularly in middle-income countries
Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste
Management in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London
3rd Driver - Resource value – 3Rs
Recycling rates - formal vs informal
Income
Level
Average
%
Formal
%
Informal
%
High
54
54
0
15
1
15
27
11
16
27
1
26
Uppermiddle
Lowermiddle
Low
Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010).
Solid Waste Management in the World’s Cities.
Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London
Major opportunity for win-win solutions through
partnership with the informal recycling sector
•
•
•
•
Build recycling rates
Move towards zero waste
Improve livelihoods
Improve working
conditions
• Save the city money
Itinerant waste buyer in Brazil
Sorting recycled plastics in Delhi
Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse,
Enrico Fabian
Framework for selecting appropriate
interventions for informal sector integration
A. Solid Waste
Management
interface
• Financial
sustainability
• Access to waste
• Separate waste
at source
C. Social interface
O. Organisation &
empowerment
(underpinning
basis)
B. Materials &
value chain
interface
C Velis, DC Wilson et al.
An analytical framework
and tool (‘InteRa’) for
integrating the informal
recycling sector in waste
and resource management
systems in developing
countries. Waste
Management & Research
September 2012 30: 43-66
http://wmr.sagepub.com/content/30/9_suppl.
Rapid waste growth is inevitable if waste per
capita tracks economic growth
• Recycling is an easy
first option to reduce
waste for disposal
• Waste prevention is
also critical
• Waste prevention has
come onto agenda in
high-income countries
• Requires innovation in
developing countries
Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012).
Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.
Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.
My only slide on waste prevention
in developing countries …
Unsold food from shops, which would otherwise be discarded as waste,
being sorted prior to distribution to some 15 000 people registered with
the social inclusion food bank in Belo Horizonte. Brazil
© SLU
Governance factors also important
Public health –
Collection
Environment
– Disposal
Physical
3Rs – Reduce,
Reuse, Recycle
Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.
and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management
in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat
Inclusivity – User and
Provider
Governance
Sound
Institutions
& Pro-active
Policies
Financial
Sustainability
© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis
Good governance – partnering with ALL
stakeholders in an ISWM system
Service
users
State
Agencies
Development
partners
NGOs /
CBOs
Municipality
Neighbouring
municipalities
Private
service
providers
Producer
responsibility
organisations
Informal
sector
Inclusivity: Focus in Particular on Users &
Service Providers
Service
users
State
Agencies
Development
partners
NGOs /
CBOs
Municipality
Neighbouring
municipalities
Private
service
providers
Producer
responsibility
organisations
Informal
sector
Achieving user inclusivity
Citizens Committee
At Barangay level in
Quezon City, Philippines
Photos: SWAPP; Jeroen IJgosse
Participative planning
Catia La Mar, Venezuela
Collection
Some examples
of diversity in
service
provision
Door-to-door informal collector, India
Bicycle cart delivering to small
transfer station in Kunming
Curepipe, Mauritius
CBO collection in Bamako, Mali
Adelaide, Australia
Modernisation does not necessarily mean motorisation
Photo credits clockwise from top left: © WASTE; Erica Trauba; Justin Lang, Zero Waste South Australia; Curepipe Municipality; Ljiljana Rodic
Financial sustainability - affordability
Income Level
High
Upper-middle
Lower-middle
Low*
City SW City SW budget per capita
budget per
as % of
capita
GDP per capita
range
average
$75
$33
$10
$1.4
0.03 - 0.40%
0.17%
0.14 - 1.19%
0.59%
0.40 - 1.22%
0.69%
0.14 – 0.52%
0.32%
* Data only available for 3 of the 6 low-income cities (for 16 out of 20 cities in total)
Affordability is a key issue in the lower income countries
• Fees < 1-2% of household income
Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management
in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London
People are willing to pay –
when they can see the benefits
- which is often for primary collection,
to improve the living conditions of their children
Raising awareness
amongst citizens to
pay for waste
collection goes
hand in hand with
collection service
improvement
Maputo,
Mozambique
Photo: Joachim Stretz
Sound Institutions, Proactive Policies
Adequacy of national
SWM framework
Degree of local
institutional coherence
1. Legislation and regulations
1. Organisational structure
2. Strategy/policy
2. Institutional capacity
3. Guidelines and
implementation procedures
3. City-wide strategy and plan
4. National institution
responsible for SWM policy
4. Availability and quality of
SWM data
5. Regulatory control
5. Management, control and
supervision of service delivery
6. Extended producer
responsibility
6. Inter-municipal co-operation
Source: D.C. Wilson et al. Benchmark Indicators for Integrated & Sustainable
Waste Management (ISWM). Paper to ISWA World Congress, 2013
Kerbside sort in Rotterdam
Bring bins in Varna,
Bulgaria
Exchanging recyclables for
onions Siddhipur, Nepal
A diversity of approaches to separate collection for recycling
REFLECTIONS – IN SUMMARY
Photo credits: © City of Rotterdam; Kossara Bozhilova-Kisheva; Bhushan Tuladhar
69% increase in waste generation by 2025
- and the shifting regional focus of SWM challenges
‘Triple whammy’:
1. Rapidly growing
populations
2. Rural- urban migration
3. Waste per capita increases
with economic growth
Source: Dan Hoornweg:
data from ‘What a Waste’,
2012, World Bank
* Bubble size proportional to total
urban population
SWM priorities are defined by
the physical requirements …
• Extend collection
coverage
• Reduce waste
generation
• Build recycling rates
• Eliminate open
dumping
• Appropriate treatment
© DCW
DCW’s version of the waste hierarchy
Key questions for assessing when treatment is
appropriate
• Waste-to-energy
incinerators
– Will our waste burn
unsupported?
– Does it compete with
recycling for paper, plastics?
– Can we afford the gate fee?
– Does the environmental
regulator have the powers &
institutional capacity to
control and monitor the gas
cleaning?
Photo credit: Timothy O'Rourke for The New York Times
Baoan incinerator in Shenzhen, China
• Novel technology
• Is it proven?
• Beware the magic solution
• If it seems too good to be
true – then it probably is!
.. but successful implementation requires
good governance & partnerships
• Partnerships
underpin all the
Habitat governance
factors
• Municipalities
cannot solve the
SWM problem
alone
Service
users
State
Agencies
Development
partners
NGOs /
CBOs
Municipality
Neighbouring
municipalities
Private
service
providers
Producers
Informal
sector
Thank you for
listening!
www.davidcwilson.com
[email protected]
[email protected]