August 2013
Wichita Economy Tracker™
The Business of Fraud:
Are You Protected?
Economic Benchmarks
From personal identity theft to corporate
scams, fraud is one of the biggest moneymaking industries in the world raking in
an estimated $3.5 trillion annually. And for
businesses that think it can’t happen to
them, the numbers tell a different story. In
2012, more than 60 percent of businesses
experienced attempted or actual payments
fraud with an average loss to the company of
more than $20,000. The survey also found
that 87 percent of those businesses attacked
had their corporate checks targeted – the
highest form of fraud – and 29 percent had
their corporate credit cards targeted.
So, how do businesses protect themselves?
The best protection for internal fraud is dual
control and separation of duties. Understand
who is in charge of what responsibilities on
the financial side and make sure there are
no gaps. Implement dual control over the
businesses banking transactions, meaning
the same person who is running payables
should not be the same person who is
reconciling accounts.
Read more tips about fraud protection from
UMB and learn how businesses can protect
themselves and their employees.
Single-family homes; not seasonally adjusted
Total sales
Under contract
Average days on market
Average new home price
Jun-12
Jun-13
769
835
91
$268,869
828
959
82
$303,586
Source: South Central Kansas MLS
Wichita Home Permits
Authorized units privately owned
Total
May-12
May-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
110
133
104
112
Y-Y Change
+20.1%
+7.9%
Source: US Census Bureau
Wichita Employment
May-12
May-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
Change From
Prior Month
Unemployment
Rate
+1,274
+1,923
+4,932
+1,535
6.7%
6.7%
7.1%
6.7%
National unemployment average 7.4%, Jul 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
UMB.com
Wichita* Consumer Price Index
US Median: $214,200 in June
1982-1984 = 100 (US Average 233.3)
$117,500
$124,375
$114,900
$125,000
214.7
219.0
223.7
207.8
May-12
May-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
Source: South Central Kansas MLS
10
Wichita Employment
Millions (000,000s)
May-12
May-13
$206,197 $206,972
Jun-12
Jun-13
Source: Kansas Department of Revenue
Not seasonally adjusted
13-YTD
*Midwest Urban Region
Not seasonally adjusted
*Most recent data available
$221,322 $226,821
12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Median sale price for existing single-family homes
Wichita Retail Sales*
11
Thousands (000s)
280,482
282,783
283,149
283,412
May-12
May-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Not seasonally adjusted
U.S. Employment By The Numbers
Nonfarm payroll employment: +162,000▼
Civilian labor force participation rate: 63.4% ▼
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2013
Inside The Economy
Wichita Home Sales
Not seasonally adjusted
Wichita Median Home Price*
To be Employed or not to be Employed...That is the Question!
By Ken Maxey
The cheering in the background comes from economists and (some) politicians
celebrating the drop in the unemployment rate to 7.4 percent during July 2013. For
those of you who aren’t familiar with this particular statistic, it is published monthly
by the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is the number of people unemployed
divided by the number of people in the workforce. To fully appreciate what this
statistic means, one needs to have a basic grounding in what goes into its calculation.
To be considered unemployed, you must be over 16 years in age, actively searching
for work, and not “institutionalized” (e.g., prison, military service). If you don’t meet
those criteria, you’re not in the labor force and not counted. That’s all good and well,
however, there are some underlying data that, if included or excluded, could skew
the rate. For instance, if a person wanted to work full time, but had to settle for a
part-time job, that person is counted as fully employed. One could argue that those
part-timers should be counted in accordance with the number of hours actually
worked, which would decrease both the “whole” people counted in the workforce
and add to the number of “whole” people unemployed. For July 2013, there were
8.1 million in this category out of a total civilian workforce of 156 million. One logical
conclusion is that the unemployment rate of 7.4 percent is understated since the ratio
counts a part-time worker as a “whole body” instead of recognizing the percentage
of a 40-hour work week that person contributes. Another curious statistic is the
number of discouraged workers in the economy. Well, technically, you could say they
are not really in the economy since these are people not actively looking for work.
Basically, they have given up since they believe there are no jobs available for them.
In July 2013, there were about 1 million in this category. Should they be counted as
unemployed since they truly are without a job and would raise the unemployment
rate? Food for thought. The moral here is don’t take economic statistics at face value.
Wichita Economy Tracker August 2013
Quick Fact
Local Trends
Average Weekly Wage
Wichita Employment
Wichita Employment
Q4-12 Avg. County Weekly Wage
Leisure and Hospitality Jobs
Education and Health Services
Butler
Cowley
Harvey
Kingman
Reno
Sedgwick
Sumner
$669
$635
$674
$657
$668
$915
$613
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013-YTD
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
27,800
28,000
27,500
28,700
27,700
28,600
30,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013-YTD
-0.9%
42,100
43,300
43,900
44,500
43,300
43,500
43,200
The decrease in total weekly
hours for the average
employee in Kansas. Current
average hours worked is 35.1
per week.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kansas Population Forecast for 2030
Age
2000 Total
2030 Forecast
Change from 2000
Percent Change
Under 18
712,993
524,285
275,592
769,204
574,400
356,229
2,688,418
708,946
511,861
267,337
710,942
659,768
593,091
2,940,084
-4,047
-12,424
-8,255
-58,262
85,368
236,862
251,666
-0.6%
-2.4%
-3.0%
-7.6%
14.9%
66.5%
9.4%
5-17
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Total
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
National Trends
US Job Openings* (000s)
CEO Survey - Second Quarter 2013
Increase
How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the
next six months?
How do you expect your company’s US capital spending to
change in the next six months?
75%
43%
How do you expect your company’s US employment to
change in the next six months?
36%
Survey is a forecast of economic conditions in the next six months. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding.
No Change
Decrease
20%
6%
45%
12%
44%
20%
Source: Business Roundtable Q2 2013
Jun 2013
3,953
May 2013
3,828
Apr 2013
3,757
Mar 2013
3,844
Feb 2013
3,925
Jan 2013
3,611
Dec 2012
3,056
Nov 2012
3,255
*Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Personal Income In billions of dollars
Employment Cost Index Not seasonally adjusted
12-Month
Change
Index Number
Q 3 2012
Q 4 2012
Q 1 2013
Q 2 2013
117.3
117.7
118.3
119.0
2005 = 100.0
+2.0%
+1.9%
+1.8%
+1.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Price Index: Medical Not seasonally adjusted
Medical care
Medical care services
Hospital services*
US all items
Jun 12
Jun 13
Y-Y
Change
415.3
441.0
254.2
229.4
442.2
453.3
263.2
233.5
+2.1%
+2.8%
+3.6%
+1.8%
1982-86 = 100.0. *1996 = 100.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Domestic Automotive Units (000s)
US Production
May 2012
May 2013
Jun 2012
Jun 2013
354.9
379.2
351.9
380.5
Unit Sales
Inventory
Level
411.2
440.8
418.3
457.6
840.3
1,104.1
858.8
1,100.6
Feb 2013
Mar 2013 rev
Apr 2013 rev
May 2013 rev
Jun 2013
Personal income
13,676▲
14,006▲
14,008▲
14,057▲
14,102▲
Disposable personal
income
12,031▲
12,367▲
12,356▼
12,394▲
12,428▲
Personal consumption
expenditures
11,390▲
11,419▲
11,397▼
11,416▲
11,476▲
rev = revised
Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Gross
Domestic
Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumer
Confidence
Index
Total U.S. Retail Sales
Q2 2012
1.2%
Mar 2013
61.9
Q3 2012
2.8%
Apr 2013
69.0
Q4 2012
0.1%
May 2013
74.3
Q1 2013 (r)
1.1%
Jun 2013 (r)
82.1
Q2 2013 (p)
1.7%
Jul 2013 (p)
80.3
r = revised
Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis
1985 = 100.0
p = preliminary, r = revised
Source: The Conference Board
$405,484 $421,636*
Jun-12
Jun-13
* = revised
Not seasonally adjusted
In millions (000,000s)
$400,379
$427,547
Jul-12
Jul-13
Source: US Department of Commerce
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
UMB.com
Sources of information are believed to be reliable, but information is in no way guaranteed. Economy Tracker is produced in partnership with The Carlon Group.
Copyright 2013. All Rights Reserved. The Carlon Group • 700 17th Street, Suite 2400, Denver, CO 80202 • 303.223.6515 • www.thecarlongroup.com