Impacts of climate change on Pacific atolls:
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity
A case study from Ontong Java atoll, Solomon Islands
Thomas Birk, M.Sc – Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen
Small islands and climate change
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IPCC 4AR - WG2, Chapt. 16:
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”Small islands have characteristics which make them especially
vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise, and extreme
events (very high confidence)”
”Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge,
erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure,
settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island
communities (very high confidence)
There is strong evidence that under most climate change scenarios,
water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised
(very high confidence)”
”Climate change is likely to heavily impact coral reefs, fisheries and other
marine-based resources (high confidence)
Island diversity
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Common characteristics
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Physical size – small, but what is small?
Proneness to natural disasters and climate extremes (tsunami, vulcanic
eruptions, earthquake, cyclones)
Open economies
Low adaptive capacities
Diversity
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Regional / local climatic differences
Topographic features
Other characteristics: natural resources, size and shape, culture,
population density, geographical location / isolation etc.
Fielwork expedition - CLIP
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Sustainable Resource Use or Imminent Collapse? Climate, livelihoods and
production in the Southwest Pacific (CLIP)
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CLIP is a joint project of the LUCC and EST research groups at The
Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, the
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), and the University of the South
Pacific (USP), Fiji and Solomon Islands. The project is endorsed by the
Danish Expedition Foundation, Galathea 3. and the Global Land Project.
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Project coordination: Ole Mertz and Kjeld Rasmussen, The Department of
Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen
Geographical location: SW Pacific
Ontong Java
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Low lying atoll ~ 2 m.
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2 communities - Polynesian
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120 small islets surrounding a shallow lagoon
Reef flat: shallow underground aquifers, calcium rich, nutrient
deficient soils
Coral reef: coastal protection, biodiversity
Luaniua: 1300 people
Pelau: 700 people
Isolation
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> 300 km. to main islands
Ethnic minority (5%)
Ontong Java
Luaniua island
Objectives
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To understand
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Recent climate variability and change: regional observation and local
perception
Existing coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies
To assess
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The potential / probable impact of CC
The vulnerability of local community
Adaptive capacity and potential adaptation strategies
Methodology
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Literature
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Island case studies (e.g. Bayliss-Smith 1988)
Regional, national statistics
IPCC 4AR
Field work
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Questionnaire: livelihood, production, CC impacts and coping measures
Interviews: CC specific – climate variability, CC, coping strategies etc.
Topography – simple differential levelling method
Impact and response – climate events
Water supply
Coastal protection?
Topography
Regional CC
Local perceptions/observations
Adaptation to CC
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Coping with CC / climate variability are well established parts of
the living conditions on Ontong Java
Growing support / attention for small scale island community
adaptation projects
National focus on adaptation priorities and funding opportunities
(NAPA’s)
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Critical long term effects on coral atolls of sea-level rise (≥ 30
cm) and ocean acidification
Economic efficiency of adaptation investments, national priorities
of supporting Polynesian outlier communities
Exacerbated impacts of CC due to population increase,
economic instability, environmental resource depletion
Conclusions
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Impacts and vulnerabilities differ greatly between islands
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Sea level rise will become a great problem in Ontong Java
Coral reef deterioration is likely to become a serious problem, both
because of their role as coastal protection, as ecosystems and fish
habitats and as basis for tourism development
Droughts are presently important, and may become worse associated
with more intense El Niño events
Island-by-island impact and vulnerability assessment is required
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People on the islands are experience at coping with extreme events
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A few short- to medium-term adaptation options can be pointed out
and could be pursued – Yet, there are obvious need for capacity
building: knowledge, finance, technology etc.
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In light of sea-level rise > 30 cm. long-term adaptation will be difficult
Human factor
Luanua 2007
Luanua 1963