FINAL REPORT
Modeling Income in the Near Term 4
by
Karen E. Smith
David B. Cashin
and
Melissa M. Favreault
April 2005
This research was funded by the Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and
Statistics, Division of Policy Evaluation (Contract No.: 0600-01-60123). We gratefully acknowledge
programming assistance from Barbara Butrica, Joshua Goldwyn and Joyce Morton and helpful advice from
Gary Burtless. We remain solely responsible for all errors and omissions. The nonpartisan Urban Institute
publishes studies, reports, and books on timely topics worthy of public consideration. The views expressed
are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
THE URBAN INSTITUTE 2100 M STREET, N.W. / WASHINGTON D.C. 20037
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
I.
Overview .................................................................................................................................I-1
CHAPTER 2 EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
Overview
........................................................................................................................ II-1
Historical Earnings ................................................................................................................ II-1
Combined Historical and Projected Earnings........................................................................ II-4
Sensitivity of Combined Historical and Projected Earnings to SER Send
Off Year and Trustees’ Assumptions .................................................................................... II-5
Additional Evidence .............................................................................................................. II-7
Additional Issues to Consider................................................................................................ II-8
Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ II-8
CHAPTER 3 ASSET ADJUSTMENTS
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
Overview
.......................................................................................................................III-1
Home Equity .......................................................................................................................III-2
Net Financial Assets.............................................................................................................III-5
Retirement Account Balances ..............................................................................................III-7
Results
.......................................................................................................................III-7
Conclusions .....................................................................................................................III-15
CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.
XI.
XII.
Overview
.......................................................................................................................IV-1
Demographics.......................................................................................................................IV-1
Health and Disability............................................................................................................IV-3
Retirement Patterns ..............................................................................................................IV-5
Pension Coverage .................................................................................................................IV-8
Retirement Wealth..............................................................................................................IV-10
Income at Age 62 ...............................................................................................................IV-14
Income at Age 67 ...............................................................................................................IV-18
Living Arrangements and SSI Benefits..............................................................................IV-20
Income In 2020...................................................................................................................IV-22
Co-Resident Income ...........................................................................................................IV-25
Measuring Poverty .............................................................................................................IV-26
Chapter 4 Appendix Tables ................................................................................................IV-31
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(Continued)
CHAPTER 5 EXTENSIONS TO MINT
I.
II.
III.
Overview
........................................................................................................................ V-1
Method
........................................................................................................................ V-1
Advantages and Limitations .................................................................................................. V-7
CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY OF MODEL RESULTS
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.
XI.
XII.
XIII
Overview
.......................................................................................................................VI-1
Demographics.......................................................................................................................VI-1
Health and Disability............................................................................................................VI-3
Retirement Patterns ..............................................................................................................VI-5
Pension Coverage .................................................................................................................VI-8
Retirement Wealth................................................................................................................VI-9
Income at Age 62 ...............................................................................................................VI-12
Income at Age 67 ...............................................................................................................VI-15
Living Arrangements and SSI Benefits..............................................................................VI-16
Income In 2020...................................................................................................................VI-19
Co-Resident Income ...........................................................................................................VI-21
Income In 2060...................................................................................................................VI-23
Poverty
.....................................................................................................................VI-23
Chapter 6 Appendix Tables ................................................................................................VI-26
ii
LIST OF TABLES
CHAPTER 2 EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
Table 2-1.
Table 2-1B.
Table 2-1C.
Table 2-2.
Table 2-3.
Table 2-4.
Table 2-5.
Average Lifetime Earnings (Divided by the Average Wage) from
1951 to 1999 among Survivors to 1999 who were Born in the United
States ....................................................................................................................... II-2
Median Lifetime Earnings (Divided by the Average Wage) from 1951
to 1999 among Survivors to 1999 who were Born in the United States ................. II-3
Mean of Lifetime Earnings Capped at the Social Security Taxable
Maximum (Divided by the Average Wage) from 1951 to 1999 among
Survivors to 1999 who were Born in the United States ........................................... II-4
Mean Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (in $2002) at Social Security
Take-Up Age among Survivors to Age 65 who were Born in the United
States, Using Current MINT4 Assumptions............................................................. II-5
Mean Number of Years with Zero Earnings at Age 65 among Survivors
to age 65 who were Born in the United States, Using Current MINT4
Assumptions ............................................................................................................. II-6
Mean Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (in $2002) at Social Security
Take-Up Age among Survivors to Age 65 who were Born in the United
States, Using MINT3 Assumptions.......................................................................... II-6
Mean Number of Years with Zero Earnings at Age 65 among Survivors to
Age 65 who were Born in the United States, Using MINT4 Assumptions
Analogous to MINT3 Assumptions ......................................................................... II-7
CHAPTER 3 ASSET ADJUSTMENTS
Table 3.1
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 3.4
Table 3.5a
Table 3.5b
Table 3.6
Average Household Net Assets and Asset Ratio by Asset Type and
Source: 1998 Survey of Consumer Finance and 1996 Survey of Income
and Program Participation .......................................................................................III-1
Distribution of Financial Assets, Retirement Accounts, and Home Equity
as a Percent of the Economy-wide Average Wage by Data Source and
SCF to SIPP Asset Ratio .........................................................................................III-3
Financial Asset Adjustment Factors........................................................................III-6
Parameter Estimates for Retirement Account Adjustment......................................III-7
Mean, 10th Percentile, and 30th Percentile Family Financial Assets in 2000
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Data Source.................................III-10
50th, 80th, and 90th Percentile Family Financial Assets in 2000
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Data Source.................................III-11
Mean, 80th, and 90th Percentile Retirement Account Balance
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Data Source.................................III-16
CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
Table 4-1. Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and Year of Birth.........IV-2
Table 4-2. Health and Disability Status.............................................................................................IV-4
Table 4-3. Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Retired from Work By Age ....................................IV-5
Table 4-4. Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Taken Up Social Security Benefits By Age ...........IV-6
iii
LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table 4-5.
Table 4-6.
Table 4-7.
Table 4-8.
Table 4-9.
Table 4-10.
Table 4-11.
Table 4-12.
Table 4-13.
Table 4-14.
Table A4-1a.
Table A4-1b.
Table A4-2a.
Table A4-2b.
Table A4-3a.
Table A4-3b.
Table A4-3c.
Table A4-4a.
Table A4-4b.
Table A4-4c.
Table A4-5a.
Table A4-5b.
Table A4-6a.
Table A4-6b.
Table A4-6c.
Table A4-6d.
Table A4-7.
Table A4-8a.
Percentage of Workers with Positive Earnings by Age...........................................IV-7
Pension Coverage at Age 62 ...................................................................................IV-9
Mean Wealth of Retirement Cohorts at Age 62 ....................................................IV-11
Mean Per Capita Wealth at Age 62 at Different Points in the
Wealth Distribution ...............................................................................................IV-13
Per Capita Income at Age 62 by Year of Birth .....................................................IV-15
Per Capita Income at Age 67 by Year of Birth .....................................................IV-19
Living Arrangements and SSI Recipiency at Age 67............................................IV-21
Per Capita Income in 2020 of Persons Aged 62-89 ..............................................IV-23
Income of Co-resident Family Members in 2020 of Co-residing
Individuals.............................................................................................................IV-26
Population Characteristics, Average Per Capita Income, and Poverty
Rates by Selected Characteristics: 1990s and 2020 ..............................................IV-29
Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and Cohort ........IV-31
Percent of Individuals at Age 67, by Individual Characteristics and Cohort ........IV-31
Percentage of Individuals Projected to be in Fair or Poor Health, by Cohort,
Age, and Gender....................................................................................................IV-32
Percent of Individuals Drawing Disability Benefits at Age 62, by Cohort,
Race, and Gender ..................................................................................................IV-33
Projections of Age at Retirement, by Cohort and Gender.....................................IV-34
Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort
and Gender ............................................................................................................IV-35
Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort and
AIME Quintile.......................................................................................................IV-36
Projections of Percentage of Non-Disabled Individuals, Age 62 and
Over, with Positive Earnings, by Cohort and Gender ...........................................IV-37
Percentage of Retirees With Positive Earnings Before Age of Benefit
Entitlement, by Cohort and Gender.......................................................................IV-38
Percent of Individuals Age 62 with Positive Earnings, by Cohort, Gender,
and Social Security Receipt...................................................................................IV-39
Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62, by Cohort
and Gender ............................................................................................................IV-40
Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62, by Cohort
and AIME Quintile................................................................................................IV-41
Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort .......................IV-43
Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort .......................IV-44
Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)......................................IV-45
Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)......................................IV-46
Distribution of Per Capita Assets at Age 62 by Cohort (Ratio of Wealth
to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)..................................................................IV-47
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................IV-48
iv
LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table A4-8b.
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) ................IV-49
Table A4-8c.
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................IV-50
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Educational Attainment and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................IV-51
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) ............IV-52
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .............IV-53
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................IV-54
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................IV-55
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................IV-56
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Level of Educational
Attainment and Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide
Average Wage)......................................................................................................IV-57
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile
and Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage).......IV-58
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile
and Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage).......IV-59
Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2020, by Individual Characteristics ........IV-60
Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and Income
Source (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .............IV-61
Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and Income
Source (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .............IV-62
Average Family Total Income as a Percent of the Poverty Threshold in
2020, by Age and Individual Characteristics ........................................................IV-63
Percent of Individuals in Poverty in 2020, by Age and Individual
Characteristics .......................................................................................................IV-64
Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Old Population, Average Family Income as
a Percent of Poverty and Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Olds Below Poverty
in the Early 1990s and 2020, by Individual Characteristics ..................................IV-65
Contribution of Individual Characteristics to Poverty Rates in Early 1990s
and 2020 (UI Measures of Poverty Level Income) ...............................................IV-66
Table A4-8d.
Table A4-8e.
Table A4-8f.
Table A4-9a.
Table A4-9b.
Table A4-9c.
Table A4-9d.
Table A4-9e.
Table A4-9f.
Table A4-10a.
Table A4-10b.
Table A4-10c.
Table A4-12a.
Table A4-12b.
Table A4-12c.
Table A4-12d.
CHAPTER 5 EXTENSIONS TO MINT
Table 5-1.
Table 5-2.
Methods for Creating Additional Birth Cohorts ...................................................... V-2
OLS Parameter Estimates, Partial R-Square, and Summary Statistics
for 1960-1964 Donors ............................................................................................. V-4
v
LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table 5-3.
Table 5-4.
Table 5-5.
OLS Parameter Estimates, Partial R-Square, and Summary Statistics for
1973-1978 Donors ................................................................................................... V-5
OLS Parameter Estimates, Partial R-Square, and Summary Statistics for
1979-1983 Donors ................................................................................................... V-6
Parameter Estimates from OLS Regressions for Cohort-Specific Mortality
Adjustment by Sex .................................................................................................. V-7
CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY OF MODEL RESULTS
Table 6-1.
Table 6-2.
Table 6-3.
Table 6-4.
Table 6-5.
Table 6-6.
Table 6-7.
Table 6-8.
Table 6-9.
Table 6-10.
Table 6-11.
Table 6-12.
Table 6-13.
Table 6-14.
Table 6-15.
Table A6-1a.
Table A6-1b.
Table A6-2a.
Table A6-2b.
Table A6-3a.
Table A6-3b.
Table A6-3c.
Table A6-4a.
Table A6-4b.
Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and
Year of Birth............................................................................................................VI-2
Health and Disability Status ....................................................................................VI-4
Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Retired from Work By Age.............................VI-5
Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Taken Up Social Security
Benefits By Age ......................................................................................................VI-6
Percentage of Workers with Positive Earnings by Age...........................................VI-7
Pension Coverage at Age 62 ...................................................................................VI-9
Mean Wealth of Retirement Cohorts at Age 62 ....................................................VI-10
Mean Per Capita Wealth at Age 62 at Different Points in the
Wealth Distribution ...............................................................................................VI-12
Per Capita Income at Age 62 by Year of Birth .....................................................VI-14
Per Capita Income at Age 67 by Year of Birth .....................................................VI-17
Living Arrangements and SSI Recipiency at Age 67............................................VI-18
Per Capita Income in 2020 of Persons Aged 62-89 ..............................................VI-20
Income of Co-resident Family Members in 2020 of Coresiding Individuals ...............................................................................................VI-22
Per Capita Income in 2060 of Persons Aged 62-89 ..............................................VI-24
Population Characteristics, Average Per Capita Income,
and Poverty Rates by Selected Characteristics: 1990s, 2020, 2060 ......................VI-25
Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics
and Cohort .............................................................................................................VI-26
Percent of Individuals at Age 67, by Individual Characteristics
and Cohort .............................................................................................................VI-26
Percentage of Individuals Projected to be in Fair or Poor Health, by
Cohort, Age, and Gender.......................................................................................VI-27
Percent of Individuals Drawing Disability Benefits at Age 62, by Cohort,
Race, and Gender ..................................................................................................VI-28
Projections of Age at Retirement, by Cohort and Gender.....................................VI-29
Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by
Cohort and Gender ................................................................................................VI-30
Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort
and AIME Quintile................................................................................................VI-31
Projections of Percentage of Non-Disabled Individuals, Age 62 and Over,
With Positive Earnings, by Cohort and Gender ....................................................VI-32
Percentage of Retirees With Positive Earnings Before Age of Benefit
Entitlement, by Cohort and Gender.......................................................................VI-33
vi
LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table A6-4c.
Table A6-5a.
Table A6-5b.
Table A6-6a.
Table A6-6b.
Table A6-6c.
Table A6-6d.
Table A6-7.
Table A6-8a.
Table A6-8b.
Table A6-8c.
Table A6-8d.
Table A6-8e.
Table A6-8f.
Table A6-9a.
Table A6-9b.
Table A6-9c.
Table A6-9d.
Table A6-9e
Table A6-9f.
Table A6-10a.
Table A6-10b.
Table A6-10c.
Table A6-12a.
Table A6-12b.
Percent of Individuals Age 62 with Positive Earnings, by Cohort, Gender,
and Social Security Receipt...................................................................................VI-34
Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62, by Cohort
and Gender ............................................................................................................VI-35
Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62, by Cohort
and AIME Quintile................................................................................................VI-36
Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort .......................VI-38
Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort .......................VI-39
Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort.........................VI-40
Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort.........................VI-41
Distribution of Per Capita Assets at Age 62 by Cohort.........................................VI-42
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................VI-43
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................VI-44
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................VI-45
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Educational Attainment and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .............VI-46
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .............VI-47
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .............VI-48
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage) .........................VI-49
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Marital Status and Cohort ...............VI-50
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Race and Cohort..............................VI-51
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Level of Educational
Attainment and Cohort ..........................................................................................VI-52
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile
And Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average ................VI-53
Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile
and Cohort .............................................................................................................VI-54
Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2020, by Individual
Characteristics .......................................................................................................VI-55
Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics
and Income Source ................................................................................................VI-56
Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and
Income Source.......................................................................................................VI-57
Average Family Total Income as a Percent of the Poverty Threshold in
2020, by Age and Individual Characteristics ........................................................VI-58
Percent of Individuals in Poverty in 2020, by Age and Individual
Characteristics .......................................................................................................VI-59
vii
LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table A6-12c. Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Old Population, Average Family Income
as a Percent of Poverty and Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Olds Below Poverty
in the Early 1990s and 2020, by Individual Characteristics ..................................VI-60
Table A6-12d. Contribution of Individual Characteristics to Poverty Rates in Early 1990s
and 2020 (UI Measures of Poverty Level Income) ...............................................VI-61
Table A6-14a. Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2060, by Individual Characteristics ........VI-62
Table A6-14b. Average Per Capita Income in 2060, by Individual Characteristics
and Income Source ................................................................................................VI-63
Table A6-14c. Average Per Capita Income in 2060, by Individual Characteristics
and Income Source ................................................................................................VI-64
Table A6-14d. Average Family Total Income as a Percent of the Poverty Threshold in
2060, by Age and Individual Characteristics ........................................................VI-65
Table A6-14e. Percent of Individuals in Poverty in 2060, by Age and Individual
Characteristics .......................................................................................................VI-66
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3.1:
Figure 3.2:
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4:
Figure 3.5:
Figure 3.6:
Distribution of Household Home Equity, Retirement Account
Balance, and Financial Assets as a Percent of the EconomyWide Average Wage by Data Sour .........................................................................III-4
Distribution of Family Financial Assets as a Percent of the
Average Wage in 2000By Age and Data Source ..................................................III-12
Adjusted and Unadjusted Median Financial Assets as a Percent of the
Average Wage by Age and Cohort........................................................................III-13
Adjusted and Unadjusted Mean Financial Assets as a Percent of the
Average Wage by Age and Cohort........................................................................III-14
Adjusted and Unadjusted Mean Retirement Account Balance as a Percent
of the Average Wage by Age and Cohort .............................................................III-17
Adjusted and Unadjusted Mean Retirement Account Balance as a Percent of
the Average Wage by Age and Cohort..................................................................III-18
ix
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
I. OVERVIEW
This report describes the work the Urban Institute performed to generate MINT4 and
MINT4EX version 2. MINT4 includes individuals born between 1926 and 1972 and projects
retirement income and assets out to 2039. MINT4EX extends the basic MINT4 projections to
2099 and then uses a statistical matching procedure to generate projections for individuals born
between 1973 and 2017. The final MINT4EX file projects retirement income and assets from
1988 to 2099 for individuals born between 1926 and 2017.
MINT4 replicates MINT3 by reproducing the full set of model projections. MINT4
differs from MINT3 in its starting sample, its included set of cohorts, and its projection horizon.
MINT4 is based on the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panel matched
to Social Security Administration data on benefits, earnings, and mortality, while MINT3 is
based on the 1990 to 1993 SIPP panels matched to these same administrative sources. MINT4
includes individuals born between 1926 and 1972, while MINT3 included only individuals born
between 1926 and 1965. Finally, MINT4 makes all of the retirement income projections through
the year 2039, while MINT3 projects out to 2032. We constructed the MINT4 file so that it is
fully compatible with MINT3—that is, analysts may use the files separately or combined.
Both MINT3 and MINT4 have been extended to include cohorts born between 1973 and
2017 with projections to 2099. The extended parts of the file (cohorts born between 1973 and
2017) are identical for both MINT3EX and MINT4EX, and the individuals born between 1966
and 1972 included in MINT3EX come directly from the MINT4. This process is documented in
chapter 5 of this report.
The MINT4 contract called for no new enhancements or parameter estimates. Instead, it
called for the systematic replication of the methods used in MINT3 to generate the demographic,
earnings, pension, wealth, retirement, benefit take-up, Social Security and SSI benefit
projections, and immigration on the new data files. These methods are detailed in Toder et al
(2002).1
These basic projections were modified under a separate MINT contract to address some
concerns raised by the expert review panel (Berk et al 2003).2 This enhanced version is the
1
The specific chapters by topic in that volume are as follows: Introduction (Chapter 1), Earnings, mortality, and
disability status prior to age 67 (Chapter 2), Health status (Chapter 3), Employment and retirement behavior after
age 50 and Social Security benefit take-up (Chapter 4), Pension coverage and benefits (Chapter 5), Non-pension
assets (Chapter 6), Living arrangements and eligibility for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits and
subsequent participation (Chapter 7), Mortality adjustments (Chapter 8), Summary of model results (Chapter 9),
and Projections of poverty in 2020 (Chapter 10).
2
The updated MINT model includes the following enhancements:
• Use the Detailed Earnings Record (DER) instead of the Summary Earnings Record (SER) for historic
I-1
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW
APRIL 2005
reference file for MINT3. The MINT4 model includes the same model enhancements that we
made for MINT3.
While the MINT4 contract asked for a systematic replication of MINT3, under the
direction of the Social Security Administration Task Manager, we did make four important
changes to the MINT3 methods to improve and extend the model results.
1. We included projected earnings up to age 50 in the fixed-effects model used to
generate earnings from age 50 to retirement. MINT3 uses only historic earnings from
the administrative earnings records up to 1999. The latter change provided better
projections for the newly added cohorts (1966 to 1972) who had relatively few years
of historic earnings compared to earlier cohorts.
2. We adjusted the starting SIPP financial wealth values to match the age-specific
wealth distribution found on the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF).
3. We changed the deferred contribution limits to match legislated limits through 2005.
We then price adjust the limits from 2006 on.
4. We incorporated the Office of Retirement Policy’s (ORP) Social Security benefit
calculator into MINT. This calculator had been developed to model numerous Social
Security reform options including reforms with personal retirement accounts.
5. We used the CSSS method to add individuals born between 1973 and 2017 and to
extend the projections to 2099 (Butrica, Cashin, and Uccello 2004).
Our approach was to match as closely as possible the file structure and coding for MINT4
as was used for MINT3. This required careful recoding and remapping of variables that had
changed on the 1996 SIPP survey compared to the 1990 to 1993 SIPP surveys. Where possible,
we used run time parameters in the code to adjust for the changes in the cohorts and final
projection year in MINT4 compared to MINT3. This technique has allowed us to share the bulk
of the code in both MINT3 and MINT4, increasing the model’s transparency and facilitating
future changes to the model.
In the process of generating the MINT4 projections, we found the MINT4 lifetime
earnings were lower than the MINT3 lifetime earnings. We performed some sensitivity analysis
that revealed two important findings. First, the 1996 SIPP sample earnings are about 5 percent
lower than the 1990 to 1993 earnings for the same cohorts and same years. Separate analysis of
the 1990 to 1993 panels showed that this variance is within the range of sample variance
observed across the older panels. Second, the projected earnings are sensitive to the final year of
•
earnings and parameter estimation. The latter file introduces bias in measured earnings both through
capping of earnings above the Social Security taxable maximum and through missing earnings not covered
by Social Security. These biases affected projected earnings, retirement, pension wealth, and financial
wealth in earlier versions of MINT.
Separate out self-employment earnings from nonself-employment earnings. Adding this distinction
increased the projected heterogeneity in pension types and wealth accumulation for individuals with selfemployment earnings.
Add future immigrants to the MINT sample. Omitted immigrants, who are primarily those entering the US at
older ages, systematically have fewer years of Social Security covered earnings and are more susceptible to
poverty and SSI eligibility.
I-2
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW
APRIL 2005
earnings used in the earning splicing program. Both 2000 and 2001 were recession years. When
we include these years as the last years of earnings, the splicing method projects the recessionyear earnings to continue into the future. To lessen the impact of this recession, we excluded the
2001 DER earnings from the donor records and projected earnings from 2001 until retirement.
Chapter 2 of this report describes the results of the sensitivity analysis comparing the
MINT3 and MINT4 samples that provided the basis for the decision to exclude the 2001 data
from the splicing donor record. Chapter 3 describes the wealth adjustments used to align the
MINT4 financial assets and retirement account balances to the 1998 SCF distribution. Chapter 4
details the patterns in outcomes generated by the MINT4 data system, focusing on the cohorts as
they reach age 62 and age 67, respectively, and on the entire model population still alive in 2020.
These patterns are disaggregated along many different dimensions, with specific consideration
given to outcomes by sex and cohort. Separate tables examine labor force participation rates,
retirement and Social Security take-up ages, earnings, living arrangements, and housing and nonhousing wealth. Summary tables aggregate these sources of income (and SSI) to show total
family incomes. We also highlight some of the differences in results between the MINT3 and
MINT4 projections. Chapter 5 describes the method for adding the 1973 to 2017 birth cohorts to
MINT4EX, and chapter 6 summarizes the results for the full range of projected cohorts out to
2060.
I-3
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW
APRIL 2005
REFERENCES:
Butrica, Barbara A., David B. Cashin, and Cori E. Uccello. 2004. “Projections of Economic Well-Being
for Retirees in 2022 and 2062.” Draft Final Report to the Social Security Administration.
Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.
Jillian Berk, Barbara Butrica, Melissa Favreault, Richard Johnson, Caroline Ratcliffe, and Karen Smith,
2003. “Modeling Income in the Near Term: Revisions to MINT3 Projections.” Letter Report to
Howard Iams and Leslie Muller of the Social Security Administration, dated April 19.
Toder, Eric, Larry Thompson, Melissa Favreault, Richard Johnson, Kevin Perese, Caroline Ratcliffe,
Karen Smith, Cori Uccello, Timothy Waidmann, Jillian Berk, Romina Woldemariam, Gary
Burtless, Claudia Sahm, and Douglas Wolf. 2002. “Estimates of Retirement, Social Security
Benefit Take-Up, and Earnings after Age 50.” In Modeling Income in the Near Term – Revised
Projections of Retirement Income Through 2020 for the 1931-1960 Birth Cohorts. Washington,
DC: The Urban Institute. [Project Report for the Social Security Administration.]
I-4
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 2
EARNINGS DIFFERENCES:
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
I.
OVERVIEW
Shifting from the 1990 through 1993 panels of SIPP to 1996 led to some unexpected
differences in projected MINT earnings patterns. In this chapter, we try to identify the sources of
these differences. Specifically, we consider whether these differences result from differences
across the model in starting samples, attrition, outliers, projection methods and/or assumptions,
or some combination of these factors.
To sum up, we find differences in earnings that result from both differences in baseline
earnings and sensitivity to projection methods (including starting points and Trustees’
assumptions). The projections methods are more important for women, while changes in
baseline earnings are more important for men. We also rule out outliers and sample attrition as
significant factors in the differences. Below is a brief summary of some of the key results from
our analyses.1
This chapter compares a preliminary version of MINT4 with MINT3. Both files have
subsequently been updated to use 2004 Trustees’ assumptions. This chapter is included to
highlight the sensitivity of the model’s projections to sample variance, but these preliminary
numbers may differ from the final projections detailed in chapter 4.
II.
HISTORICAL EARNINGS
Table 2-1 compares the mean of average earnings from 1951 to 1999 by SIPP panel, sex,
and cohort. We have restricted the table population to individuals born in the United States that
the Numident reports survive until at least 1999. We made this latter restriction in order to avoid
comparing populations that had been differentially impacted by mortality. (For example,
members of the 1996 SIPP panel by definition differ from members of the 1990 panel in that the
latter have survived until 1996, whereas the former only need to have survived until 1990. In
earlier cohorts, these differences could be especially important.2) We independently weighted
each panel using each panel’s unadjusted full panel weights. (The “all” category does not
include the 1996 panel wave-one weighted results.)
1
The results that we present in this chapter reflect MINT4 earnings projections prior to the wealth adjustment
(which we discuss in Chapter 3). We chose to use these unadjusted numbers in order to provide a cleaner
comparison across the models.
2
Because SIPP represents the non-institutional population, differential levels of institutionalization across panels
could be an additional issue for these analyses that we ignore at present because of data limitations.
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
Table 2-1. Average Lifetime Earnings (Divided by the Average Wage) from 1951 to 1999
among Survivors to 1999 who were Born in the United States
Birth Cohort
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60
Female
0.312
0.369
0.368
0.388
0.359
0.283
1990
0.318
0.377
0.368
0.387
0.333
0.273
1991
0.334
0.381
0.376
0.381
0.344
0.276
1992
0.333
0.346
0.377
0.357
0.331
0.269
1993
0.317
0.367
0.377
0.379
0.323
0.273
1996 (panel weight)
0.321
0.362
0.372
0.382
0.327
0.271
1996 (wave 1 weight)
0.368
0.373
0.378
0.338
0.275
All (1996 values use panel weight) 0.323
SIPP Panel
All
% diff from
global mean
0.344
0.338
0.343
0.330
0.334
0.335
0.338
1.9%
0.0%
1.5%
-2.3%
-1.1%
-1.0%
0.0%
Male
1.096
1.105
1.022
0.862
0.678
0.502
0.812
1990
1.114
1.169
1.067
0.854
0.738
0.502
0.836
1991
1.063
1.077
1.002
0.844
0.672
0.526
0.801
1992
1.084
1.095
0.995
0.837
0.667
0.501
0.796
1993
1.079
1.051
1.024
0.815
0.645
0.484
0.781
1996 (panel weight)
1.084
1.088
1.049
0.846
0.649
0.480
0.795
1996 (wave 1 weight)
1.100
1.022
0.843
0.680
0.503
0.805
All (1996 values use panel weight) 1.087
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: Earnings include both covered and uncovered earnings; MINT3 files use SER data through 1999,
while MINT4 files use SER data through 2000; MINT3 uses 2002 Trustees' assumptions, while MINT4
uses 2003 Trustees' assumptions.
0.9%
3.8%
-0.5%
-1.2%
-3.0%
-1.2%
0.0%
For men, there appear to be small but potentially important differences between mean
earnings in MINT3 and MINT4. For all of the MINT cohorts combined (1931-1960), men’s
mean earnings are the lowest in the 1996 SIPP panel. Men’s mean earnings on the 1996 panel
are 3.0 percent lower than the global mean (78.1 percent of the average wage in 1996, compared
to 80.5 percent on average for all five panels). Putting these differences into perspective, men’s
earnings in the 1991 panel, the smallest panel of the five, are consistently higher than the mean
for all five panels. Indeed, the 1991 panel’s difference from the global mean (of 3.8 percent) is
higher than the difference for the 1996 panel. This suggests that the differences between 1996
and the other panels could simply be the result of sampling variability. (After all, one of the five
panels has to have the lowest value.) Further, we can see that the men’s difference is not
consistent across all cohorts. For example, in the 1931-35 and 1941-45 cohorts, men in the 1996
panel do not have the lowest earnings of all five panels.
For women, 1996 panel differences are smaller. Women’s mean earnings on the 1996
panel are 1.1 percent lower than the global mean (33.4 percent of the average wage in 1996
compared to 33.8 in all panels), but they are not the lowest among the five panels. Women’s
1993 panel mean earnings are the lowest, at 2.3 percent below the global mean.
II-2
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
Attrition was higher across waves in the 1996 SIPP than it was in the earlier panels.
Switching from the full panel weight to the wave one weight reduces the difference in men’s
1996 panel mean earnings from 3.0 percent to 1.2 percent compared to the global mean. Using
wave one weight also increases women’s measured mean earnings, but by only 0.1 percent.
(This may be important, but we do not know how different the other panel estimates would be
with a wave one weight as well.)
To explore the possibility that the differences across SIPP panels that we see in men’s
mean earnings over the 1951 to 1999 interval may result from undue influence from outliers at
the high end, we produced this same tabulation using median earnings rather than mean (Table 21B). Results are similar, with the 1996 panel having lower median earnings for men (relative to
all five panels combined) and comparable median earnings for women. We then tabulated
earnings only up to the taxable maximum (whether covered or uncovered) to test for outliers in a
somewhat different manner (Table 2-1C). Differences again persisted for men in the 1996 panel.
Table 2-1B. Median Lifetime Earnings (Divided by the Average Wage) from 1951 to 1999
among Survivors to 1999 who were Born in the United States
SIPP Panel
1990
1991
1992
1993
1996 (panel weight)
1996 (wave 1 weight)
All (1996 values use panel weight)
Birth Cohort
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60
Female
0.232
0.301
0.294
0.326
0.301
0.235
0.252
0.280
0.303
0.305
0.267
0.231
0.263
0.293
0.303
0.319
0.283
0.240
0.257
0.267
0.306
0.294
0.270
0.224
0.236
0.298
0.292
0.329
0.270
0.241
0.241
0.296
0.292
0.322
0.262
0.228
0.246
0.288
0.301
0.315
0.278
0.234
All
% diff from
global median
0.279
0.269
0.278
0.267
0.272
0.269
0.273
2.0%
-1.4%
1.8%
-2.2%
-0.3%
-1.5%
0.0%
Male
1.058
0.992
0.924
0.789
0.600
0.448
0.701
1990
1.028
1.044
0.985
0.771
0.600
0.446
0.704
1991
1.018
0.984
0.924
0.736
0.612
0.470
0.691
1992
1.000
0.992
0.914
0.761
0.597
0.451
0.682
1993
0.997
1.007
0.912
0.745
0.586
0.439
0.670
1996 (panel weight)
0.999
1.016
0.933
0.747
0.583
0.429
0.671
1996 (wave 1 weight)
1.018
1.003
0.933
0.761
0.599
0.451
0.690
All (1996 values use panel weight)
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: Earnings include both covered and uncovered earnings; MINT3 files use SER data through 1999,
while MINT4 files use SER data through 2000; MINT3 uses 2002 Trustees' assumptions, while MINT4
uses 2003 Trustees' assumptions.
II-3
1.6%
2.0%
0.1%
-1.2%
-3.0%
-2.8%
0.0%
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
Table 2-1C. Mean of Lifetime Earnings Capped at the Social Security Taxable Maximum (Divided by
the Average Wage) from 1951 to 1999 among Survivors to 1999 who were Born in the United States
Birth Cohort
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60
SIPP Panel
Female
0.308
0.362
0.362
0.380
0.344
0.267
1990
0.314
0.360
0.360
0.373
0.320
0.267
1991
0.325
0.366
0.365
0.371
0.332
0.270
1992
0.327
0.340
0.368
0.348
0.319
0.261
1993
0.311
0.360
0.358
0.372
0.316
0.267
1996 (panel weight)
0.314
0.355
0.358
0.373
0.313
0.261
1996 (wave 1 weight)
0.357
0.363
0.369
0.326
0.266
All (1996 values use panel weight) 0.317
All
% diff from
global mean
0.334
0.327
0.333
0.322
0.326
0.324
0.328
1.7%
-0.2%
1.5%
-2.0%
-0.8%
-1.3%
0.0%
Male
0.904
0.918
0.872
0.763
0.610
0.460
0.707
1990
0.908
0.941
0.903
0.749
0.599
0.454
0.705
1991
0.902
0.911
0.852
0.732
0.604
0.480
0.698
1992
0.889
0.912
0.850
0.738
0.600
0.459
0.692
1993
0.875
0.913
0.846
0.726
0.581
0.450
0.681
1996 (panel weight)
0.885
0.915
0.857
0.728
0.574
0.440
0.681
1996 (wave 1 weight)
0.919
0.865
0.741
0.599
0.461
0.697
All (1996 values use panel weight) 0.895
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: Earnings include both covered and uncovered earnings; MINT3 files use SER data through 1999,
while MINT4 files use SER data through 2000; MINT3 uses 2002 Trustees' assumptions, while MINT4
uses 2003 Trustees' assumptions.
III.
1.4%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-2.2%
-2.3%
0.0%
COMBINED HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED EARNINGS
Table 2-2 presents mean Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME), as defined by
SSA, at time of first benefit receipt (SSAGE) by panel. The 1990 to 1993 panels projections are
from MINT3. They use matched administrative earnings from 1951 to 1999 and the year 2002
Trustees’ Assumptions. The 1996 panel projections are from MINT4. It uses matched
administrative earnings from 1951 to 2000 (one additional year) and 2003 Trustees’
Assumptions. Here, we restrict the samples to native-born persons who survived through age 65
to maximize comparability across the SIPP panels.
Once more, we find that MINT4 results appear to differ in important ways from MINT3
results. These cumulative differences appear to be greater than the historical results. (This is not
surprising, as histories play an important role in our projection methods.) For men, AIMEs in
MINT4 are 5.0 percent lower than the average across the five panels ($3,477, compared to
$3,661). For women, they are 5.7 percent lower ($1,841 compared to $1,953). This suggests
that the difference in women’s earnings is resulting almost entirely from the projection method
(since the 1996 women’s baseline earnings were more similar to earnings of women in other
panels). In this case, applying the wave one weight rather than the panel weight actually
increases the difference between the 1996 SIPP and other panels for both men and women.
II-4
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
Table 2-2. Mean Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (in $2002) at Social Security Take-Up Age among Survivors to
Age 65 who were Born in the United States, Using Current MINT4 Assumptions
Birth Cohort
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60
SIPP Panel
Female
914
1,322
1,649
2,161
2,485
2,596
1990
928
1,251
1,678
2,151
2,318
2,580
1991
972
1,304
1,635
2,125
2,409
2,592
1992
1,016
1,168
1,679
2,010
2,321
2,608
1993
892
1,248
1,499
1,989
2,169
2,414
1996 (panel weight)
910
1,223
1,507
1,962
2,132
2,362
1996 (wave 1 weight)
944
1,259
1,628
2,087
2,341
2,557
All (1996 values use panel weight)
Male
2,583
3,090
3,627
4,016
4,106
4,129
1990
2,618
3,192
3,733
3,939
4,006
4,223
1991
2,578
3,078
3,593
3,827
4,056
4,231
1992
2,551
3,054
3,490
3,787
3,987
4,225
1993
2,504
3,040
3,391
3,547
3,732
3,945
1996 (panel weight)
2,537
3,033
3,398
3,532
3,682
3,862
1996 (wave 1 weight)
3,091
3,566
3,823
3,976
4,150
All (1996 values use panel weight) 2,566
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: MINT3 files use SER data through 1999, while MINT4 files use SER data through 2000;
MINT3 uses 2002 Trustees' assumptions, while MINT4 uses 2003 Trustees' assumptions.
All
% diff from
global mean
2,012
1,977
1,985
1,951
1,841
1,814
1,953
3.0%
1.3%
1.6%
-0.1%
-5.7%
-7.1%
0.0%
3,724
3,749
3,699
3,659
3,477
3,446
3,661
1.7%
2.4%
1.0%
-0.1%
-5.0%
-5.9%
0.0%
Table 2-3 illustrates patterns in the number of years in which individuals did not have
earnings (tabulated through age 65). Universe restrictions are as in the previous tables (only
native-born survivors through age 65). For women, the average number of years without
earnings (up until age 65) does not appear to differ greatly across the five SIPP panels. In some
cohorts, the 1996 panel has the highest average number of zero years, while in others it is in the
middle. For men, MINT4 averages of years without earnings are higher than MINT3 averages
for all but one of the cohorts. In some cases, for example the 1946-50 cohort, the difference is
quite significant.
IV.
SENSITIVITY OF COMBINED HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
EARNINGS TO SER SEND OFF YEAR AND TRUSTEES’
ASSUMPTIONS
To test the sensitivity of the previous analyses to our underlying assumptions, Table 2-4
presents mean Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME), as defined by SSA, at time of first
benefit receipt in an alternative MINT4 baseline. This version of MINT4 maximizes
comparability with MINT3. Specifically, it uses SER earnings through 1999 and 2002 Trustees’
assumptions. Again, we restrict the samples to native-born persons who survived through age 65
to maximize comparability across the SIPP panels.
II-5
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
Table 2-3. Mean Number of Years with Zero Earnings at Age 65 among Survivors to Age 65
who were Born in the United States, Using Current MINT4 Assumptions
SIPP Panel
1990
1991
1992
1993
1996 (panel weight)
1996 (wave 1 weight)
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
22.6
22.1
22.5
22.4
22.9
22.9
20.9
20.7
20.5
21.8
21.1
21.1
18.3
18.5
18.5
18.3
18.5
18.5
Birth Cohort
1946-50 1951-55
Female
14.6
12.1
14.8
13.0
14.8
12.6
15.5
13.0
14.9
13.4
14.9
13.4
Male
6.88
7.16
7.41
7.32
7.59
7.27
8.04
7.49
8.44
7.76
8.44
7.76
1956-60
All
11.8
11.7
11.7
11.9
12.0
12.0
15.7
15.8
15.8
16.1
16.1
16.1
8.37
8.00
7.64
7.50
7.50
1990
8.87
7.72
7.63
7.20
7.58
1991
8.80
8.09
8.31
7.24
7.75
1992
9.33
7.87
8.30
7.56
7.98
1993
8.92
8.32
8.29
7.54
8.11
1996 (panel weight)
8.92
8.32
8.29
7.54
8.11
1996 (wave 1 weight)
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: Earnings include both covered and uncovered earnings; MINT3 files use SER data through 1999, while MINT4
files use SER data through 2000; MINT3 uses 2002 Trustees' assumptions, while MINT4 uses 2003 Trustees'
assumptions.
Table 2-4. Mean Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (in $2002) at Social Security Take-Up Age
among Survivors to Age 65 who were Born in the United States, Using MINT3 Assumptions
Birth Cohort
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60
SIPP Panel
Female
914
1,322
1,649
2,161
2,485
2,596
1990
928
1,251
1,678
2,151
2,318
2,580
1991
972
1,304
1,635
2,125
2,409
2,592
1992
1,016
1,168
1,679
2,010
2,321
2,608
1993
891
1,225
1,525
2,027
2,250
2,503
1996 (panel weight)
911
1,204
1,534
1,992
2,223
2,447
1996 (wave 1 weight)
943
1,254
1,633
2,095
2,357
2,575
All (1996 values use panel weight)
All
% diff from
global mean
2,012
1,977
1,985
1,951
1,888
1,863
1,962
2.5%
0.8%
1.2%
-0.6%
-3.8%
-5.1%
0.0%
Male
2,583
3,090
3,627
4,016
4,106
4,129
3,724
1.3%
1990
2,618
3,192
3,733
3,939
4,006
4,223
3,749
2.0%
1991
2,578
3,078
3,593
3,827
4,056
4,231
3,699
0.7%
1992
2,551
3,054
3,490
3,787
3,987
4,225
3,659
-0.4%
1993
2,495
3,019
3,450
3,650
3,827
4,045
3,544
-3.5%
1996 (panel weight)
2,531
3,017
3,466
3,632
3,779
3,923
3,510
-4.5%
1996 (wave 1 weight)
3,087
3,578
3,843
3,996
4,170
3,675
0.0%
All (1996 values use panel weight) 2,565
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: Both MINT3 and MINT4 files use SER data through 1999; Both MINT3 and MINT4 use 2002 Trustees' assumptions.
II-6
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
We find that this change in assumption does reduce the differences between the 1996
SIPP panel and the other panels, but it does not eliminate them. Using the panel weight for the
1996 cohorts, AIMEs in 1996 are about 3.5 percent below the global average for all five panels
for men ($3,544 compared to $3,675) and 3.8 percent below the global average for women
($1,888 compared to $1,962). With the wave one weight, the differences are again larger than
with the panel weight.
Table 2-5 presents projections of the number of years with zero earnings at age 65 using
these same assumptions for the 1996 panel (last SER year of 1999 and 2002 Trustees’
Assumptions). Using the MINT3 assumptions lowers the number of zero years for both men and
women compared to the MINT4 assumptions and reduces the differences across panels.
Table 2-5. Mean Number of Years with Zero Earnings at Age 65 among Survivors to Age 65 who
were Born in the United States, Using MINT4 Assumptions Analogous to MINT3 Assumptions
SIPP Panel
1990
1991
1992
1993
1996 (panel weight)
1996 (wave 1 weight)
1931-35
1936-40
22.6
22.1
22.5
22.4
23.0
23.0
20.9
20.7
20.5
21.8
21.6
21.8
Birth Cohort
1941-45 1946-50
Female
18.3
14.6
18.5
14.8
18.5
14.8
18.3
15.5
19.2
15.7
19.3
16.0
1951-55
1956-60
All
12.1
13.0
12.6
13.0
13.3
13.6
11.8
11.7
11.7
11.9
12.2
12.5
15.7
15.8
15.8
16.1
16.4
16.7
Male
8.4
8.0
7.6
6.9
7.2
7.5
7.5
1990
8.9
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.6
1991
8.8
8.1
8.3
7.6
7.3
7.2
7.7
1992
9.3
7.9
8.3
8.0
7.5
7.6
8.0
1993
9.0
9.1
9.1
8.8
7.7
7.6
8.4
1996 (panel weight)
9.0
9.5
9.2
9.2
8.3
8.2
8.8
1996 (wave 1 weight)
Sources: Urban Institute tabulations from MINT3 and MINT4 files.
Notes: Both MINT3 and MINT4 files use SER data through 1999. Both MINT3 and MINT4 use 2002 Trustees'
assumptions.
V.
ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE
One issue to which we devote special attention is validating patterns in work rates and
average earnings across single years of age. Because the MINT projection method varies by age
range (baseline to age 50, age 50 to first retirement, first retirement to Social Security take-up
age, Social Security take-up age to age 70, and 70 and older), we check carefully for unexplained
discontinuities between single years of age. At present, we find that more important
discontinuities exist between ages 50 and 51 in MINT4 than were present in MINT3.
II-7
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
In our analyses, we have noticed that problematic MINT4 earnings discontinuities are
largest in the 1961 to 1965 and 1966 to 1972 cohorts. We hypothesized that this was due in large
part to the projections that come from the “earnings trajectory” component of the model (i.e., the
model of earnings between age 50 and retirement). Specifically, we found that these cohorts
have very sharp drops in work rates and earnings at age 51. We hypothesized that this rapid
drop-off was due to the fact that for persons in the youngest cohorts, fixed-effects and pure
transitory errors in the trajectory model were based only on earnings through age 28, years at
which earnings are relatively less variable.
To try to combat this problem, we changed the method for estimating and projecting
earnings trajectories to include the Burtless projections through age 50 in the estimation sample
(thus combining historical and projected data, a first for parameter estimation in the MINT data
system). We have produced numerous tables and graphs documenting the results of this change,
and can provide them to SSA upon request. In summary, we found that this method improved
problems with discontinuities across methods in MINT4. We still needed to smooth the data,
even with this change in method, as we had in MINT3. (All MINT4 results presented herein
include both this expanded method and smoothing adjustments.) While having very important
effects for cohorts after 1960, this change in method had very little impact on the cohorts (19311960) we examine in this chapter.
VI.
ADDITIONAL ISSUES TO CONSIDER
One issue that could be contributing to these differences across panels and cohorts is
censoring of educational attainment for younger persons in the sample. Our projection methods
depend closely on education attained, as persons with different levels of education experience
different patterns of earnings growth as they age. In the youngest cohorts of MINT4, members
of the sample are only about age 28 at the last point in which they are observed in SIPP. Some
could attain additional education after this point. (We hypothesize that this censoring would be
primarily between having some college and having a college degree or advanced degree.) This
issue may deserve some exploration (and ultimately adjustment, especially in the youngest
cohorts).
A second issue is that several components of our earnings model incorporate cohort
effects for women. For the newly added cohorts (1966 to 1972), we have set the cohort effect
equal to the cohort effect for the last cohort in the prior version of MINT (the 1965 cohort). This
assumption may require some additional exploration.
VII. CONCLUSIONS
MINT4 earnings begin lower than MINT3 earnings, and this difference persists as we
make projections into the future. To date, this difference appears to be a complex result of a
number of different elements, including sampling variability and sensitivity of our projection
methods (including sensitivity to start-off years). For men, differences between MINT3 and
MINT4 are noticeable in the historic data and increase into the projection period. For women,
II-8
CHAPTER 2: EARNINGS DIFFERENCES: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
APRIL 2005
initial (historical) differences between MINT3 and MINT4 are small, but in the projection period
differences grow rapidly, indeed more rapidly than they do for men. Analyses of medians and
means for capped earnings reveal that these differences are not largely due to the influence of
high-tail outliers. Analysis of the results using wave one weights show that the differences are
not due to sample attrition.
We have now done fairly extensive validation of these data, and do not believe that these
patterns are the results of major conceptual or programming problems. These patterns appear to
result from underlying differences in the data. We have no reason to suspect that these data are
significantly less reliable than those from MINT3. At this point, we therefore recommend that
pooling these data with other MINT files for distributional analysis could be beneficial.
II-9
CHAPTER 3
ASSET ADJUSTMENTS
I.
OVERVIEW
This chapter discusses adjustments that we made to MINT4’s asset projections.
We begin in this section with our rationale for adjusting the assets, and then in
subsequent sections we address the adjustment methods for each of the separate
components of wealth (home equity, financial assets, and retirement accounts) in turn.
We next present the results from these projections, comparing the adjusted wealth values
with their unadjusted predecessors. Our results show that the wealth adjustment helps
MINT4 track Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) wealth distributions fairly closely. The
results also underscore the difficulty of projecting such an unevenly distributed and
volatile outcome.
Rationale: Mean household financial wealth and retirement account balances on
the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are substantially lower than
those in the 1998 SCF (see Table 3.1). The SIPP wealth distribution has historically been
lower than the SCF distribution for high wealth holders. Beginning with the 1996 SIPP
panel, however, the differences between the SIPP and SCF wealth persists throughout the
entire distribution.
Table 3.1
Average Household Net Assets and Asset Ratio by Asset Type and Source:
1998 Survey of Consumer Finance and 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation
Asset Type
Total Net Worth
Home Equity
Retirement Accounts
Financial Assets
Average Household Net Assets
SCF
SIPP
283,131
151,917
58,300
51,460
35,500
23,739
187,888
76,719
SCF/SIPP
1.86
1.13
1.50
2.45
Source: Urban Institute tabulations of the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finance and 1996 SIPP wave nine.
Notes: Total net worth is the sum of home equity, retirement accounts, and other financial assets.
Financial assets include all other non-pension non-housing assets including cash, bonds, stocks, non-home
property, and vehicles less debt.
Czajka, Jacobson, and Cody (2003) extensively analyzed the assets on the 1996
SIPP compared to the 1998 SCF and the 1999 Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).
They attribute the difference to four main factors:
III-1
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
•
SIPP underestimation of the assets of the wealthy accounts for 72 percent of the
total difference.
•
Assets measured on the SCF but not in the SIPP account for 13 percent of the
total difference.
•
SIPP underestimation of business equity for the nonwealthy accounts for 5
percent of the total difference.
•
SIPP underestimation of all remaining assets account for 10 percent of the total
difference.
They also found a low correlation between assets and liabilities on the 1996 SIPP
that is not present in other samples. Item nonresponse is high with the SIPP wealth
values (20 to 60 percent), and the Census Bureau imputes values for all nonresponses.
Czajka et al concluded that the Census Bureau did not account for reported assets when
imputing liabilities and vise versa on the 1996 SIPP. The implication is that the
imputation method contributed to the observed differences in the SIPP wealth distribution
compared to the SCF.
Because of the documented differences between the 1996 SIPP and 1998 SCF
wealth distributions, the Social Security Administration requested that we adjust the
starting SIPP wealth values so that they align to the 1998 SCF.1 MINT tracks three
separate types of assets: home equity, retirement accounts, and financial assets. Home
equity is the home value less the home debt. Retirement accounts include balances in
401(k)s, thrift plans, IRAs, Keoghs, and other tax deferred retirement saving plans.
Financial assets include savings, checking, and money market account balances; stock
and bond values; equity in vehicles, farms, businesses, and non-home real estate; less
unsecured debt. We adjusted each asset type separately in a way that preserves the agespecific asset distribution.
II.
HOME EQUITY
We did not adjust home equity values in MINT4. Table 3.2 (shown graphically in
Figure 3.1) shows the distribution of household home equity as a percent of the economywide average wage for the 1998 SCF and wave nine of the 1996 SIPP.2 Both files have
very similar distributions. Both files find that about 62 percent of U.S. households own
their home (or, put another way, 38 percent of households have zero home equity).
1
SSA requested that we use the same method that we had used to calibrate the 1990 to 1993 SIPP wealth to
the 1992 SCF for the Urban Institute’s Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM) model. This
adjustment was done for a sensitivity analysis in Butrica and Uccello (2004).
2
SIPP wave nine interview was asked in December 1998 to March 1999. All SCF and wave nine asset
values are scaled by the 1998 economy-wide average wage ($28,861.44).
III-2
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Table 3.2
Distribution of Financial Assets, Retirement Accounts, and Home Equity as a Percent
of the Economy-wide Average Wage by Data Source and SCF to SIPP Asset Ratio
Percentile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
Home Equity
1996
1998
SCF/
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
-10.03 -13.86
1.38
-0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.04
*
0.14
0.14
1.00
0.24
0.24
1.00
0.35
0.35
1.00
0.49
0.45
0.93
0.59
0.59
1.00
0.69
0.69
1.00
0.83
0.80
0.96
0.93
0.90
0.97
1.04
1.04
1.00
1.18
1.21
1.03
1.28
1.32
1.03
1.39
1.46
1.05
1.56
1.59
1.02
1.73
1.73
1.00
1.82
1.91
1.05
2.04
2.08
1.02
2.15
2.18
1.02
2.32
2.36
1.01
2.49
2.56
1.03
2.74
2.74
1.00
2.88
2.88
1.00
3.12
3.12
1.00
Financial Assets
1996
1998
SCF/
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
-235.10 -738.15
3.14
-1.09
-0.72
0.66
-0.64
-0.37
0.57
-0.45
-0.22
0.49
-0.32
-0.13
0.39
-0.24
-0.06
0.24
-0.16
-0.02
0.10
-0.11
0.00
0.00
-0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.04
0.01
-0.30
-0.01
0.03
-2.69
0.00
0.05
.
0.00
0.08
.
0.00
0.10
.
0.01
0.13
12.31
0.02
0.15
8.69
0.03
0.18
5.17
0.05
0.21
4.29
0.07
0.25
3.67
0.09
0.29
3.34
0.11
0.33
2.90
0.14
0.37
2.73
0.16
0.42
2.58
0.19
0.48
2.53
0.21
0.55
2.65
0.24
0.63
2.62
0.28
0.71
2.58
0.32
0.81
2.49
0.37
0.92
2.51
0.41
1.05
2.52
0.47
1.18
2.51
0.53
1.34
2.53
0.60
1.51
2.52
0.69
1.69
2.44
0.80
1.92
2.41
0.93
2.15
2.32
1.07
2.41
2.25
1.24
2.76
2.22
1.46
3.16
2.17
1.72
3.65
2.13
2.04
4.22
2.07
III-3
Retirement Account
Balance
1996
1998
SCF/
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.00
*
0.00
0.02
*
0.00
0.05
*
0.00
0.07
*
0.01
0.12
*
0.05
0.17
3.685
0.09
0.22
2.330
0.14
0.28
1.999
0.17
0.35
1.997
0.24
0.42
1.727
0.35
0.52
1.501
0.44
0.66
1.507
0.55
0.80
1.438
0.69
0.97
1.400
0.87
1.14
1.320
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Table 3.2
Distribution of Financial Assets, Retirement Accounts, and Home Equity as a Percent
of the Economy-wide Average Wage by Data Source and SCF to SIPP Asset Ratio
Retirement Account
Home Equity
Financial Assets
Balance
1996
1998
SCF/
1996
1998
SCF/
1996
1998
SCF/
Percentile SIPP
SCF
SIPP
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
3.46
3.47
1.00
2.45
5.03
2.06
1.04
1.35
1.300
82
3.64
3.81
1.05
2.95
5.92
2.01
1.25
1.63
1.305
84
4.09
4.16
1.02
3.56
6.90
1.94
1.56
2.01
1.289
86
4.43
4.64
1.05
4.27
8.03
1.88
1.91
2.43
1.273
88
4.93
5.20
1.05
5.30
9.98
1.88
2.43
3.01
1.243
90
5.44
5.89
1.08
6.78
12.73
1.88
3.12
3.64
1.167
92
6.24
6.93
1.11
8.85
16.44
1.86
4.16
4.54
1.092
94
7.48
8.66
1.16
12.68
25.09
1.98
5.89
6.24
1.059
96
10.39
11.26
1.08
20.68
48.26
2.33
9.04
10.39
1.149
98
20.79
17.32
0.83
3476.55 17488.4
5.03
35.93 1039.45 28.930
100
Source: Urban Institute tabulations of the 1998 SCF and 1996 SIPP.
Notes: The SCF/SIPP ratio is undefined for zero SIPP values (shown as * in the table).
Figure 3.1
Distribution of Household Home Equity, Retirement Account Balance, and
Financial Assets as a Percent of the Economy-Wide Average Wage by Data Source
Home Equity
Retirement Account
Retirement Account/Average Wage
12
10
1998 SCF
1996 SIPP
8
6
4
2
0
1998 SCF
10
1996 SIPP
8
6
4
2
94
86
78
70
62
54
46
38
0
30
Home Equity/Average Wage
12
50
Percentile
III-4
60
70
80
Percentile
90
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Figure 3.1 (continued)
Distribution of Household Home Equity, Retirement Account Balance, and
Financial Assets as a Percent of the Economy-Wide Average Wage by Data Source
Financial Assets (part 1)
Financial Assets (part 2)
50
1998 SCF
1.0
1996 SIPP
0.5
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-0.5
Financial Assets/Average Wage
Financial Assets/Average Wage
1.5
45
1998 SCF
40
1996 SIPP
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-1.0
60
Percentile
70
80
Percentile
90
Source: Urban Institute tabulations from 1996 SIPP wave nine and 1998 SCF. Values are
shown in Table 3.2.
Median home equity is estimated to be around 80 percent of the average wage (or about
$23,000 in 1998 nominal dollars). Home equity increases rapidly along the distribution,
equaling about 2.1 times the average wage ($63,000 in 1998 dollars) for the household at
the 70th percentile, 3.1 times the average wage at the 80th percentile, and 5.0 times the
average wage at the 90th percentile. The ratio of SCF to the SIPP home equity is around
one throughout most of the distribution.3 The SCF is about 5 percent higher than the
SIPP above the 84th percentile, but the maximum SIPP value is actually higher than the
maximum SCF value. Because of the close match between the SIPP and SCF home
equity distributions, we did not adjust the starting SIPP values.
III.
NET FINANCIAL ASSETS
Mean financial assets are almost two and a half times higher on the SCF than on
the SIPP (again, Table 3.2 and Figure 3.1). Financial assets on the SCF are above the
SIPP values all along the distribution. Twenty-six percent of SIPP households have zero
or negative financial asset, while 16 percent of the SCF households do. Median financial
assets are 2.6 times higher on the SCF than on the SIPP (0.63 compared to 0.24 times the
average wage). The 70th percentile financial assets are 2.3 times higher on the SCF than
3
The ratio is undefined when the denominator equals zero.
III-5
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
on the SIPP (2.15 compared to 0.93 times the average wage). The gap between the SCF
and SIPP declines slightly as financial assets increase through the 94th percentile. The
gap in the measured distribution widens again above the 94th percentile, with the highest
wealth household on the SCF having more than five times more wealth than the highest
household on the SIPP.
Table 3.3 shows the adjustment factors we applied to the reported 1996 SIPP
financial asset values. These adjustment factors roughly correspond to the SCF/SIPP
ratios reported in Table 3.2. We constructed financial units on the SIPP by adding the
financial assets for the respondent and the respondent’s spouse, if married, to correspond
to “primary economic unit” measured on the SCF.4 We made no financial asset
adjustment for SIPP units with assets less than 0.01 times the average wage (i.e., they
receive an adjustment factor of one). This preserves the reported SIPP value for units in
the bottom third of the asset distribution. For SIPP units with financial assets between
0.01 and 0.09 times the average wage, we increased the SIPP assets by 3.0. The
adjustment factor then declines gradually to 1.63 for units with financial assets in the 96th
percentile (14.68 times the average wage). The adjustment factor then increases for
higher asset units, with an adjustment factor of 3.0 for units in the top two percentiles.
Table 3.3
Financial Asset Adjustment Factors
Baseline SIPP Financial Assets as
a Percent of the Average Wage
Percentile
Adjustment Factor
Less than 0.01
0-28
1.00
0.01 - 0.09
28-36
3.00
0.09 - 1.55
26-76
2.24
1.55 - 2.15
76-80
2.04
2.15 - 2.61
80-82
2.01
2.61 - 3.11
82-84
1.80
3.11 - 3.76
84-86
1.90
3.76 - 4.62
86-88
1.83
4.62 - 5.77
88-90
1.74
5.77 - 7.48
90-92
1.73
7.48 - 10.07
92-94
1.70
10.07 - 14.68
94-96
1.63
14.68 - 24.19
96-98
1.71
24.19 or more
98-100
3.00
Notes: Adjustment factors to align the 1996 SIPP financial asset distribution to the 1998
SCF in MINT4.
4
The SCF primary economic unit includes the economically dominant individual or couple and all others
who are financially dependent in the household.
III-6
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
IV.
APRIL 2005
RETIREMENT ACCOUNT BALANCES
The mean retirement account balance is 50 percent higher on the SCF than on the
SIPP (see Table 3.1). Fewer than half of families have retirement accounts, but the SCF
finds that about 8 percent more families have retirement accounts compared to the SIPP
(see Table 3.2). As with financial assets, the SCF retirement accounts are higher than the
SIPP values all along the distribution, but the differences are not as large.
In order to preserve the age-specific pattern for retirement account balances, we
adjusted the starting SIPP balances based on the age-specific relationship of the average
retirement account balances from the 1996 SIPP and the 1998 SCF.
The retirement account adjustment is based on an OLS regression with the mean
household age-specific retirement account balance from the SCF divided by the SIPP as
the dependent variable. The right side variables include age and age squared for ages 25
to 70 (see Table 3.4). This adjustment increases retirement account balances more as age
increases, but at a decreasing rate. We applied an intercept adjustment of –0.3 to
generate a good fit between the 1996 SIPP and 1998 SCF age-specific adjusted values.
We applied this adjustment for individuals age 31 or older at the SIPP wave 6 interview
(age at which the adjustment is more than one).
Table 3.4
Parameter Estimates for Retirement Account Adjustment
Variable
Intercept
Age
Age Squared
Parameter
Estimate
-0.82957
0.09142
-0.00072
Standard Error
P-value
1.21886
0.04730
0.000287
0.4988
0.0582
0.0960
0.0650
Model R-Square
1.79633
Dependent Variable Mean
Note: Intercept does not include the –0.3 adjustment used in the simulation.
V.
RESULTS
The baseline adjusted SIPP wealth and retirement account balances match the
SCF distributions fairly closely by age.
The 1996 SIPP collects financial assets in waves 3, 6, 9, and 12. This roughly
corresponds to 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999. We assign the primary wealth value to be
the most recent (latest wave) nonmissing value for each respondent. If the respondent
III-7
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
was interviewed in wave 12, we set the primary wealth to the wave 12 value. If a
respondent was interviewed in wave 3 but not in waves 6, 9, or 12, we set the primary
wealth to the wave 3 value. In all cases, financial assets are expressed as a percent of the
average wage. We then adjust this primary wealth by the adjustment factor in Table 3.3
based on the unadjusted family wealth.
The MINT financial asset projections are done in three separate segments: starting
SIPP value to age 50 (for respondents younger than 50 at the primary wealth year), age
50 to retirement, and, finally, retirement to death. For the first segment (SIPP value to
age 50), each respondent in MINT is assigned an individual-specific error based on a
statistical match between the SIPP and the PSID. The statistical match selects the
individual-specific error from the PSID based on the best match of both the observed and
predicted wealth values (see chapter 6 of Toder et al 2002). A family with a high (low)
observed wealth value compared to their predicted value would likely match a record
with a high (low) individual-specific error. This statistical matching procedure also
allows some of the difference in the observed and predicted wealth to be random noise.
The individual-specific error persists with the individual throughout the MINT
projections. For each year until age 50, the wealth is assigned as the predicted value
(based on the parameter estimates and right-hand-side values) plus the family’s
individual-specific error plus a random error.5
We had to modify the MINT3 individual-specific error assignment in order for the
wealth projections to align to the adjusted SIPP wealth values. The error properties come
directly from the estimation sample (the PSID) through the statistical match. The size
and range of the individual-specific error is limited to the range from the PSID estimation
file. When we applied the MINT3 method for assigning the individual-specific errors,
there were no suitable donors on the PSID to generate the range of individual-specific
errors necessary to reproduce the adjusted financial asset starting values at the high end
of the wealth distribution in SCF. Compared to the statistical match based on the
unadjusted wealth, the mean imputed individual-specific and random errors increased
after the adjustment. The higher individual-specific errors did increase the predicted
wealth, but it alone was not big enough to reproduce the dramatically higher wealth
distribution we imposed from the SCF above the 30th percentile of the wealth
distribution.
For individuals with wealth above the 30th percentile in their age group, we
assigned the random error to zero and the individual-specific error to be their total
error—that is, the difference between the adjusted wealth and the predicted wealth. We
still use the matched individual-specific error for individuals in the bottom 30 percent of
the wealth distribution. The final adjusted financial assets in MINT4 are unchanged for
the bottom third of the distribution both in terms of the starting value and the error
assignment.
5
After age 50, the projections are implemented as a change in wealth based on the change in the righthand-side values. Because the individual-specific error does not change, it drops out of the equation.
III-8
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Tables 3.5a and 3.5b show the distribution of adjusted and unadjusted projected
family financial assets by the age of the family head in 2000 compared to the 1998 SCF.
The values are expressed as a percent of the economy-wide average wage. These
distributions are shown graphically in Figure 3.2. The age-specific adjusted values are
higher than the unadjusted values and they align fairly closely to the SCF values
throughout the distribution. The variance is high because of small sample size. The
variance is higher on the SCF, with only 4,500 households, compared to the SIPP, with
almost 31,000 households.
The adjusted mean financial assets are considerably closer to the respective SCF
means in all age groups. The differences are greater at older ages where both the sample
sizes are smaller and the distribution of wealth is wider compared to younger ages. The
bottom 10 percent of families have net debt of about 0.5 times the average wage (about
$1,500) in 2000 on both the SCF and adjusted MINT. The adjusted SIPP values still fall
slightly below the SCF values throughout the distribution. This partly reflects the lack of
adjustment for values in the bottom third of the distribution, but also a smaller variance in
the error terms generated from the estimation samples compared to the SCF.
The adjusted median financial assets are about 50 percent higher than the
unadjusted medians (see Figure 3.3). In the unadjusted projections, generally each
successive cohort group had higher projected median assets at each age than its
predecessor. Wealth was highest for families with heads born between 1966 and 1970 at
all ages. After the adjustment, median family assets for heads born between 1951 and
1955 surpass the median assets of for those born between 1956 and 1965 and those born
between 1966 and 1970. This may reflect a seam problem as individuals switch
projection equations at age 50.
The adjusted mean financial assets are nearly four times higher than the
unadjusted means (see Figure 3.4). Families with heads born between 1961 and 1965
generally have the highest mean financial assets in both the adjusted and unadjusted
series. The head of the highest wealth family in the MINT4 file was born in 1932. Its
adjusted assets in 1998 were over 10,000 times the average wage. The highest family
financial asset on the 1998 SCF was over 17,000 times the average wage. This one
outlier family causes the mean assets for the 1931 to 1935 cohort group to soar well
above the other cohort groups, but it reflects the observed wealth pattern of this small
subgroup. Mean wealth values are highly influenced by outliers, especially in small
subgroups.
III-9
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Table 3.5a
Mean, 10th Percentile, and 30th Percentile Family Financial Assets in 2000
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Data Source
Mean
10th Percentile
30th Percentile
Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted
Age
MINT
SCF MINT
MINT
SCF MINT
MINT
SCF MINT
0.41
0.99
1.27
-0.11
-0.60
-0.10
-0.01
0.05
0.01
30
0.51
1.33
1.63
-0.09
-0.17
-0.08
0.01
0.01
0.07
31
0.57
3.33
2.81
-0.11
-0.25
-0.08
0.01
0.00
0.06
32
0.64
2.48
1.68
-0.09
-0.23
-0.08
0.04
0.12
0.10
33
0.64
5.25
2.11
-0.08
-0.38
-0.07
0.06
0.03
0.10
34
0.87
1.84
4.40
-0.09
-0.12
-0.07
0.05
0.02
0.10
35
1.07
3.15
10.88
-0.09
-0.15
-0.09
0.07
0.07
0.11
36
0.94
3.11
3.40
-0.07
-0.08
-0.05
0.08
0.26
0.15
37
1.06
2.38
4.34
-0.06
-0.05
-0.05
0.10
0.12
0.16
38
1.12
4.52
4.41
-0.06
-0.22
-0.05
0.10
0.10
0.17
39
1.48
3.33
4.83
-0.06
0.02
-0.05
0.11
0.30
0.17
40
1.31
4.64
4.06
-0.06
0.00
-0.04
0.15
0.28
0.23
41
1.65
6.06
6.54
-0.05
0.00
-0.03
0.17
0.31
0.26
42
1.55
4.82
5.22
-0.07
0.00
-0.06
0.11
0.17
0.15
43
1.59
9.02
4.73
-0.08
-0.34
-0.06
0.12
0.40
0.20
44
1.85
3.71
8.79
-0.06
-0.05
-0.03
0.15
0.18
0.24
45
1.82
7.37
8.77
-0.05
0.00
-0.02
0.14
0.46
0.27
46
1.87
7.76
6.36
-0.09
-0.08
-0.07
0.11
0.17
0.19
47
2.02
6.39
6.46
-0.04
0.03
-0.03
0.17
0.27
0.30
48
2.28
9.65
7.04
-0.05
-0.04
-0.05
0.16
0.61
0.24
49
2.41
8.23
14.50
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
0.20
0.16
0.29
50
2.66
8.54
5.95
-0.02
-0.15
-0.02
0.05
0.11
0.14
51
2.54
11.86
6.17
-0.02
0.03
-0.02
0.06
0.35
0.15
52
1.96
11.99
4.29
-0.04
0.03
-0.04
0.02
0.42
0.05
53
2.24
9.57
4.49
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
0.05
0.39
0.10
54
3.17
10.52
7.71
-0.04
0.00
-0.04
0.03
0.30
0.10
55
3.88
12.38
10.58
-0.02
-0.17
-0.02
0.04
0.22
0.12
56
2.98
11.36
8.48
-0.02
0.00
-0.03
0.04
0.13
0.07
57
3.24
9.72
6.71
-0.02
0.02
-0.02
0.12
0.29
0.26
58
3.82
13.21
12.54
-0.02
0.04
-0.02
0.06
0.92
0.18
59
3.43
12.10
7.59
-0.02
0.14
-0.02
0.08
0.48
0.21
60
3.33
22.62
8.42
-0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.08
0.89
0.22
61
3.31
10.41
7.77
-0.03
-0.01
-0.03
0.08
0.25
0.21
62
3.75
10.98
8.74
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.14
0.22
0.31
63
3.05
11.55
7.56
-0.04
0.03
-0.04
0.04
0.17
0.10
64
3.50
13.52
8.11
-0.03
0.01
-0.04
0.06
0.40
0.09
65
3.83
10.38
9.14
-0.03
0.11
-0.02
0.09
1.50
0.13
66
3.01
8.67
35.15
-0.02
0.02
-0.02
0.07
0.64
0.12
67
4.32
9.19
51.96
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.09
0.16
0.32
68
3.10
13.41
25.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.26
0.26
69
3.30
12.66
11.43
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.07
0.73
0.10
70
Source: Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4 and 1998 SCF.
III-10
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Table 3.5b
50th, 80th, and 90th Percentile Family Financial Assets in 2000
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Data Source
50th Percentile
80th Percentile
90th Percentile
Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted
Age
MINT
SCF MINT
MINT
SCF MINT
MINT
SCF MINT
0.13
0.28
0.21
0.65
0.97
1.11
1.28
1.64
2.36
30
0.15
0.16
0.30
0.80
1.21
1.51
1.40
3.99
3.79
31
0.18
0.32
0.29
0.79
1.20
1.62
1.74
2.62
3.40
32
0.21
0.41
0.37
0.89
3.18
1.59
1.70
5.82
3.30
33
0.22
0.23
0.39
0.94
0.84
1.89
1.81
5.59
4.49
34
0.26
0.30
0.44
1.06
1.91
2.04
2.23
3.68
4.76
35
0.32
0.32
0.49
1.25
2.58
2.64
2.36
5.63
6.31
36
0.34
0.74
0.56
1.37
3.19
2.77
2.39
8.00
7.59
37
0.32
0.40
0.48
1.36
2.86
2.75
2.38
6.65
6.02
38
0.33
0.61
0.48
1.45
2.85
2.77
2.63
10.35
5.91
39
0.34
0.66
0.61
1.49
2.82
3.07
3.65
10.23
9.35
40
0.48
0.72
0.73
1.54
3.57
3.74
2.86
6.82
7.56
41
0.51
0.94
0.70
1.89
3.48
4.05
3.73
6.96
10.14
42
0.41
0.63
0.62
1.63
2.86
4.04
3.37
7.20
8.80
43
0.45
1.14
0.74
1.72
7.54
4.05
3.41
17.19
9.77
44
0.50
0.44
0.77
2.19
3.01
5.01
4.90
7.34
12.82
45
0.47
1.41
0.78
1.90
5.46
4.28
4.09
12.84
9.68
46
0.45
0.76
0.73
2.36
6.51
4.90
4.32
9.84
9.89
47
0.57
0.94
0.95
2.51
6.37
5.23
5.46
15.36 13.01
48
0.56
1.54
0.88
2.51
6.97
4.20
5.00
14.46 11.80
49
0.59
1.47
0.91
2.43
5.09
5.60
5.53
12.11 12.93
50
0.29
1.27
0.62
2.64
8.33
4.95
6.12
20.83
9.47
51
0.37
0.78
0.80
2.98
7.10
5.34
6.23
16.20 10.94
52
0.28
1.30
0.60
2.47
7.35
4.74
5.33
23.16
8.99
53
0.37
0.95
0.78
2.68
8.71
5.06
7.36
14.91 12.74
54
0.32
1.32
0.74
2.98
6.48
5.07
8.97
9.64
15.59
55
0.43
1.13
0.96
4.72
5.01
8.34
9.83
12.95 15.61
56
0.38
0.46
0.79
3.41
5.74
6.47
8.52
19.08 13.25
57
0.66
1.85
1.44
4.15
5.46
7.24
8.84
16.90 15.02
58
0.55
2.73
1.18
4.71
8.62
8.61
11.85
14.55 19.32
59
0.49
1.59
1.04
4.98
7.00
8.67
10.14
26.10 17.23
60
0.55
1.92
1.24
4.31
7.71
8.08
9.75
22.57 16.65
61
0.49
1.06
1.01
3.76
6.85
6.80
8.96
27.82 15.23
62
0.72
0.85
1.60
5.13
11.18
8.92
7.86
37.96 13.36
63
0.49
1.23
1.11
3.36
4.32
6.41
8.63
20.63 14.68
64
0.37
1.63
0.90
4.61
9.13
8.53
10.04
16.41 16.37
65
0.47
2.93
1.05
4.50
11.25
7.97
9.74
16.05 16.56
66
0.41
1.18
0.90
3.03
13.60
5.44
8.34
15.88 12.21
67
0.67
1.15
1.34
4.29
7.46
8.16
9.10
12.72 16.65
68
0.46
1.19
1.02
4.20
6.73
7.91
9.12
10.79 14.98
69
0.40
2.83
0.93
3.06
14.32
6.32
7.51
23.55 13.33
70
Source: Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4 and 1998 SCF.
III-11
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Figure 3.2
Distribution of Family Financial Assets as a Percent of the Average Wage in 2000
By Age and Data Source
10th Percentile
30th Percentile
0.2
1.0
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.6
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
70
35
40
45
50
Age
Unadjusted MINT
1998 SCF
55
60
65
70
Age
Adjusted MINT
Unadjusted MINT
MINT3
50th Percentile
1998 SCF
Adjusted MINT
MINT3
80th Percentile
3.5
16
3.0
14
2.5
12
2.0
10
8
1.5
6
1.0
4
0.5
2
0.0
0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
30
35
40
45
50
Age
Unadjusted MINT
1998 SCF
55
60
65
70
Age
Adjusted MINT
MINT3
Unadjusted MINT
1998 SCF
90th Percentile
Adjusted MINT
MINT3
Mean
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
30
35
40
45
Unadjusted MINT
1998 SCF
50
55
60
65
70
Age
Age
Adjusted MINT
MINT3
Unadjusted MINT
1998 SCF
Source: Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4, 1998 SCF, and MINT3.
III-12
Adjusted MINT
MINT3
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Figure 3.3
Adjusted and Unadjusted Median Financial Assets as a Percent of the Average Wage
by Age and Cohort
Unadjusted
Financial Assets/Average Wage
2.0
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Age
Adjusted
Financial Assets/Average Wage
2.0
1926-1930
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Age
Source: Urban Institute tabulation of MINT4 with and without asset adjustment.
III-13
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Figure 3.4
Adjusted and Unadjusted Mean Financial Assets as a Percent of the Average Wage
by Age and Cohort
Unadjusted
Financial Assets/Average Wage
6
1926-1930
1931-1935
5
1936-1940
1941-1945
4
1946-1950
3
1951-1955
1956-1960
2
1961-1965
1966-1970
1
0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Age
Financial Assets/Average Wage
Adjusted
1926-1930
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1931-1935
1936-1940
1941-1945
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Age
Source: Urban Institute tabulation of MINT4 with and without asset adjustment.
III-14
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Table 3.6 shows the distribution of SIPP adjusted and unadjusted family
retirement account balance by age of the family head in 1998 compared to the 1998 SCF.
The values are expressed as a percent of the economy-wide average wage. These
distributions are shown graphically in 3.5. The adjusted age-specific values are higher
than the unadjusted values, and they align fairly closely to the SCF values throughout the
distribution. Only about half of families have retirement accounts, so distributions below
the median are uninteresting.
The retirement account adjustment does not have nearly as large an impact on the
final distribution of retirement account assets as the financial asset adjustment, especially
for the younger cohorts. The size of the adjustment is smaller compared to the financial
asset adjustment and the projection method is different. MINT annually generates
retirement accounts based on a variable portfolio allocated to stocks and bonds and a
varying rate of return. Plan participants make annual contributions to their accounts up to
a limit, and individuals can gain and lose coverage over time. Current limits are based on
legislated amounts to 2006 including the over age 50 catch-up amounts. We price adjust
the contribution limits from 2007 on.
At age 65, the mean adjusted retirement account balances are higher compared to
the unadjusted amounts. The adjustment has a bigger impact on the middle cohorts:
those born between 1936 and 1960 compared to the earlier cohort, and no impact on
those born between 1966 and 1970 (whose beginning balance was not changed).
VI.
CONCLUSIONS
The MINT4 wealth adjustment successfully increased both the starting and
projected financial assets and retirement account balances. Home equity required no
adjustment. MINT4’s adjusted wealth generally preserved the age-specific wealth
distribution found on the SCF, though these distributions are highly variable due to small
sample size. The only way to preserve the altered wealth in the financial asset
projections was to change the underlying error structure. Wealth is very unevenly
distributed and the wealth adjustment accentuates the inequality on the underlying SIPP
distribution. Outlier values have a big impact on mean values, especially within small
subgroups. Care must be taken in interpreting mean values for wealth in MINT4.
III-15
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Table 3.6
Mean, 80th, and 90th Percentile Retirement Account Balance
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Data Source
Mean
80th Percentile
90th Percentile
Unadjusted
1998 Adjusted Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted Unadjusted 1998 Adjusted
Age
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
SIPP
SCF
SIPP
0.24
0.58
0.23
0.25
0.39
0.24
0.73
0.71
0.70
30
0.28
0.30
0.28
0.33
0.12
0.33
0.91
0.59
0.92
31
0.35
0.58
0.37
0.41
0.76
0.43
1.02
1.28
1.08
32
0.37
0.68
0.41
0.44
0.91
0.48
1.06
2.36
1.17
33
0.38
0.75
0.43
0.52
1.04
0.59
1.28
1.70
1.46
34
0.51
0.41
0.61
0.66
0.62
0.78
1.46
1.52
1.73
35
0.56
0.70
0.69
0.79
0.69
0.97
1.82
2.08
2.24
36
0.58
0.95
0.74
0.75
1.26
0.95
1.60
2.74
2.03
37
0.71
0.90
0.93
1.09
1.32
1.43
2.37
3.00
3.09
38
0.61
0.87
0.82
0.83
1.14
1.11
1.97
3.12
2.64
39
0.77
1.04
1.05
1.13
1.42
1.55
2.55
2.60
3.51
40
0.64
1.35
0.89
0.78
1.80
1.09
1.98
3.69
2.78
41
0.76
1.32
1.10
1.02
1.70
1.47
2.44
3.22
3.52
42
0.79
1.11
1.16
1.18
1.68
1.73
2.50
3.64
3.67
43
0.90
1.59
1.35
1.23
2.08
1.84
2.92
3.98
4.37
44
0.80
1.15
1.22
1.26
0.90
1.92
2.55
2.67
3.89
45
0.96
1.39
1.48
1.33
2.49
2.06
3.17
3.81
4.92
46
1.13
1.51
1.78
1.64
2.01
2.59
3.76
4.06
5.92
47
0.92
1.08
1.47
1.11
1.28
1.78
2.73
2.18
4.37
48
1.06
2.05
1.72
1.46
3.22
2.36
3.35
5.27
5.44
49
1.20
0.83
1.97
1.90
1.04
3.11
3.83
1.73
6.28
50
1.18
2.74
1.95
1.75
2.77
2.90
3.86
6.79
6.41
51
1.17
1.73
1.97
1.68
2.08
2.81
3.72
5.20
6.24
52
1.24
2.72
2.09
1.57
3.81
2.65
4.01
7.38
6.79
53
1.06
2.27
1.80
1.35
3.46
2.31
3.65
6.53
6.22
54
1.31
2.13
2.24
2.02
3.12
3.48
4.56
5.99
7.84
55
1.49
2.15
2.58
1.93
1.21
3.35
4.78
4.84
8.28
56
1.10
1.85
1.92
1.57
3.12
2.73
3.18
4.26
5.53
57
1.14
2.04
1.99
1.57
1.32
2.74
3.78
3.81
6.62
58
1.35
3.67
2.36
2.30
3.74
4.04
4.38
6.06
7.69
59
1.49
2.69
2.62
1.97
3.46
3.47
4.74
7.40
8.35
60
1.31
4.41
2.32
1.46
3.12
2.58
4.67
7.07
8.25
61
1.39
2.89
2.45
2.18
2.84
3.86
4.80
6.24
8.50
62
1.18
4.06
2.09
1.75
2.11
3.10
5.10
6.24
9.04
63
0.88
3.43
1.56
0.91
4.33
1.61
3.10
6.93
5.49
64
0.88
2.26
1.55
1.14
1.73
2.02
2.73
4.33
4.84
65
1.14
2.82
2.01
1.39
3.81
2.45
4.19
6.93
7.41
66
0.94
1.14
1.65
1.13
2.13
1.99
3.35
3.29
5.90
67
1.18
1.23
2.07
1.64
1.14
2.88
5.10
4.23
8.97
68
0.81
2.25
1.42
1.02
0.58
1.79
2.70
5.06
4.72
69
0.79
1.65
1.38
0.98
3.08
1.71
2.73
5.09
4.76
70
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of 1996 SIPP, 1998 SCF, Adjusted MINT4
Notes: 1996 SIPP values are from the wave 6 asset module.
III-16
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Figure 3.5
Adjusted and Unadjusted Mean Retirement Account Balance
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Cohort
M ean
Retirement Account
Balance/Average Wage
5
U nadjusted SIP P
4
1998 SC F
A djusted SIP P
3
2
1
0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
55
60
65
70
55
60
65
70
A ge
80th Percentile
Retirement Account
Balance/Average Wage
5
U nadjusted SIP P
4
1998 SC F
A djusted SIP P
3
2
1
0
30
35
40
45
50
A ge
90th Percentile
Retirement Account
Balance/Average Wage
10
U nadjusted SIP P
8
1998 SC F
A djusted SIP P
6
4
2
0
30
35
40
45
50
A ge
Source: Urban Institute tabulation of MINT4 with and without asset adjustment.
III-17
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
Figure 3.6
Adjusted and Unadjusted Mean Retirement Account Balance
as a Percent of the Average Wage by Age and Cohort
Unadjusted
1926 1930
Retirement Account
Balance/Average Wage
3
1931 1935
2.5
1936 1940
2
1941 1945
1946 1950
1.5
1951 1955
1
1956 1960
0.5
1961 1965
1966-1970
0
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Age
Adjusted
1926 1930
Retirement Account
Balance/Average Wage
3
1931 1935
2.5
1936 1940
1941 1945
2
1946 1950
1.5
1951 1955
1
1956 1960
0.5
1961 1965
1966-1970
0
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Age
Source: Urban Institute tabulation of MINT4 with and without asset adjustment.
III-18
CHAPTER 3: WEALTH ADJUSTMENT
APRIL 2005
REFERENCES
Butrica, Barbara and Cori Uccello. 2004. “How Will Boomers Fare at Retirement?”
Final Report to the AARP Public Policy Institute. Washington, D.C.: AARP.
Available at <http://research.aarp.org/econ/2004_05_boomers.pdf>.
Czajka, John L., Jonathan E. Jacobson, and Scott Cody. 2003. “Survey Estimates of
Wealth: A Comparative Analysis and Review of the Survey of Income and Program
Participation.” Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. project report to the Social
Security Administration. Washington, DC.
Toder, Eric, Lawrence Thompson, Melissa Favreault, Richard Johnson, Kevin Perese,
Caroline Ratcliffe, Karen Smith, Cori Uccello, Timothy Waidmann, Jillian Berk,
Romina Woldemariam, Gary Burtless, Claudia Sahm, and Douglas Wolf. 2002.
Modeling Income in the Near Term – Revised Projections of Retirement Income
Through 2020 for the 1931-1960 Birth Cohorts. Washington, DC: The Urban
Institute [Project Report for the Social Security Administration].
III-19
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 4
SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
I.
OVERVIEW
This chapter brings together all of the components of the MINT4 projections. It
presents similar benchmark tabulations as those included in chapters 9 and 10 of Toder et al
(2002) for MINT3. It discusses the projections produced by several of the important modules
of MINT4, including the work and benefit claiming behavior of the aged, average wealth, and
pension coverage. It then summarizes the results of the income projections, beginning with the
status of the respective birth cohorts first as they reach age 62 and then as they reach age 67.
The projections at age 67 also include the living arrangements of the people living to age 67
and their SSI claiming behavior. This is followed by an examination of the average incomes
among the members of the respective cohorts still living in 2020. An appendix to this chapter
contains tables showing the projection results in greater detail.
MINT4 projects annual income and wealth as a ratio to the economy-wide average
wage. The average wage figure used in the development of the model and the projection of
future incomes is the average used to construct the Social Security wage index series.
Projections reported here are based on the economics underlying the 2004 Trustees’ Report.
MINT4 also calibrates the forecasts of disability prevalence and Social-Security-area mortality
to the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) 2004 Trustees’ assumptions through age 66.
Projected mortality after age 66 is based on the demographic model described in chapter 8 of
Toder et al (2002).
II.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Results and Trends
MINT4 projects that future retirement cohorts will be better educated, contain a higher
percentage of African-Americans, Hispanic Americans, and other minority groups, and have
proportionately more divorced and never married people than those turning 62 in the mid1990s. These trends reflect the differences among birth cohorts in the initial SIPP population
and the impact of the MINT4 projections of mortality and changes in marital status. They are
summarized in Table 4-1.
IV-1
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-1. Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and
Year of Birth
Year of Birth
1931-35
1941-45
1951-55
1961-65
All
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
27
56
17
15
60
24
11
60
29
11
62
27
14
60
27
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
82
9
6
3
79
9
8
5
75
11
8
6
69
11
13
7
73
10
10
6
By Gender
Female
Male
53
47
52
48
51
49
52
48
52
48
5
72
8
15
7
69
7
17
8
70
7
15
7
70
7
15
By Marital Status
Never Married
5
Married
76
Widowed
9
Divorced
10
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
Educational attainment improves dramatically among individuals born between 1931
and 1951, and then remains fairly stable for individuals born after 1951. The proportion of 62year-olds with less than a high school diploma declines from 27 percent among the earliest
cohorts (those born between 1931 and 1935) to 11 percent for those born twenty years later.
The share of 62-year-olds with a college degree increases from 17 percent among those born in
the early 1930s to 29 percent for those born 20 years later. The proportion of 62-year-olds who
are college graduates declines slightly for those born between 1961 and 1965.
The non-Hispanic White proportion of the population declines steadily, from 82 percent
of 62-year-olds born in the early 1930s to 69 percent for those born in the early 1960s. The
proportion that is African-American increases slightly and the proportion that is Hispanic
increases substantially. African-Americans increase from 9 percent to 11 percent over the
projection period, while Hispanic-Americans increase from 6 percent to 13 percent. AsianAmericans and Native-Americans also account for a larger portion of the later retirement
cohorts increasing from 3 percent to 7 percent between the earliest and latest cohort groups.
The combination of marriage and mortality trends causes a noticeable shift in the
family composition of future retirees. Future retirees will have proportionately fewer married
and widowed persons and proportionately more who are never married or divorced. MINT4
IV-2
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
projects that the proportion of 62-year-olds that is married will fall from 76 percent for those
born in the 1930s to 70 percent for those born in the early 1960s. Also, improvements in
mortality will result in fewer widow(er)s at age 62, down from 9 percent of those born in the
early 1930s to 7 percent of those born in the early 1960s. These declines are offset by
increases in the proportion that are never married and divorced. The proportion of 62-yearolds that is never married increases from 5 percent of the earliest cohorts to 8 percent of the
latest cohorts. The proportion that is divorced will increase from 10 percent of 62-year-olds
born in the early 1930s to 17 percent of those born in the early 1950s before it drops to 15
percent of those born in the early 1960s.1
Comparison with MINT3
The MINT4 projected population characteristics at age 62 are similar to those projected
in MINT3. MINT4, however, projects a slightly less educated population and slightly fewer
racial minorities compared to MINT3. The general population levels and cohort trends agree
in both versions of MINT.
III.
HEALTH AND DISABILITY
Results and Trends
MINT4 projects moderate improvements in health status at both age 62 and age 67
between those born in the early 1930s and those born in the early 1950s. It then worsens
slightly for those born in the early 1960s.
Among women, the percent reporting poor health at age 62 is projected to decline from
34 percent to 27 percent for those born in the early 1930s to those born in the early 1950s. The
decline at age 67 is not quite as large, from 34 percent to 31 percent. Health status among
women then worsens slightly for those born in the early 1960s with the percentage of 62-yearold women in poor health increasing to 28 percent for those born between 1961 and 1965.
Among men, the percent reporting poor health is projected to decline for those born in the early
1930s to those born in the early 1940s from 23 percent to 22 percent at age 62 and from 26
percent to 22 percent at age 67. The percentage then rises for later birth cohorts, increasing to
26 percent among 67-year-old men born in the early 1960s. The improvements in health
between those the 1930s group and the 1950s group reflect, in part, increases in educational
attainment, while the decrease in health for later cohorts reflect the decrease in the share of
non-Hispanic, Whites among the later groups.
1
Appendix Table A4-1a shows detailed breakdown of population characteristics at age 62 by cohort, education,
race and ethnicity, gender, and marital status. Appendix Table A4-1b shows the same results but at age 67.
IV-3
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-2. Health and Disability Status
Year of Birth
1931-35 1941-45 1951-55 1961-65
All
Percent in Poor Healtha
At age 62:
Female
Male
At age 67:
Female
Male
34
23
32
22
27
22
28
22
29
22
34
26
35
22
31
24
31
26
31
24
11
9
13
11
9
12
11
10
13
12
10
13
11
10
13
9
24
10
10
20
8
11
17
11
10
18
13
10
20
11
Percent receiving Disability Insurance
Benefits at Age 62
(including SSI concurrents):
Total:
Female
Male
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
a/ Percent in fair or poor health.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
In MINT4, trends in the incidence of claiming Disability Insurance (DI) are adjusted to
correspond with the projections in the 2004 Trustees' Report for the 1926 to 1972 birth cohorts.
This produces a gradual increase in disability prevalence among both men and women at age
62 in the base MINT cohorts.
Throughout the period, African-Americans maintain rates of disability that are roughly
twice as high as rates for both Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites. The proportion of
Hispanics receiving disability is similar to that of non-Hispanic Whites but the differences
widen slightly with later Hispanic cohorts having slightly higher disability prevalence than
non-Hispanic Whites.2 While women are more likely to be in poor health compared to men,
they are less likely to receive Disability Insurance (DI). Their lower DI rates reflect women’s
historic lower attachment to the labor market and lower rates of eligibility for DI benefits.
2
Appendix Table A4-2a shows the percent of men and women expected to be in fair or poor health by age, gender
and cohort. Appendix Table A4-2b shows the percent of individuals expected to receive DI or SSI at age 62 by
gender, race, and cohort.
IV-4
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Comparison with MINT3
Health projections in MINT4 are quite similar to those in MINT3. Both models project
declines in the percentage of males and females in poor health between the 1930s and 1950s
cohorts, with a slight worsening of health status for later cohorts.
MINT3 and MINT4 also show similarities in the proportion of individuals receiving
Disability Insurance at age 62. Despite the overall similarity, however, there are small shifts
between the two models in DI prevalence among minorities. While DI prevalence for nonHispanic Whites remains nearly the same for MINT3 and MINT4, prevalence in MINT4 is
slightly lower for Hispanics and slightly higher for African-Americans compared to MINT3.
IV.
RETIREMENT PATTERNS
Results and Trends
MINT4 projects the proportion of men who are retired from the labor force at ages 62
and 65 to increase between those born in the early 1930s and early 1940s, but then decrease for
post-war birth cohorts. The proportion of women who are retired at age 62 also initially rises,
but then declines for later cohorts (see Table 4-3). The change in retirement rates by cohort
should be treated with caution, however, as much of the change is a result of the definitional
change rather than a behavioral change. (MINT4 uses two definitions of retirement. For early
cohorts, retirement is based on a 50 percent or more decrease in earnings observed in the
historic earnings data. For later cohorts, retirement is based on a drop in hours below 20 hours
per week observed in the SIPP data, and the projections use a model based on the drop in hours
definition.) Labor force participation and Social Security take-up (described below) are
measured consistently across cohorts, making them better measures of retirement trends.
Table 4-3. Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Retired from Work By Age
1931-35
Year of Birth
1941-45
1951-55
1961-65
All
By Age 62
Total
Female
Male
57
63
50
70
77
63
66
72
60
64
67
61
65
70
60
By Age 65
Total
Female
Male
75
80
69
84
86
81
79
82
77
77
78
77
79
81
77
Notes: Retirement is defined as working 20 hours or less or a 50 percent earnings drop; persons not in the labor
force at age 50 are considered retired. Disabled individuals are excluded from table.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
IV-5
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Aggregate Social Security benefit take-up rates are projected to remain fairly stable
over time at ages 62 and 65 (see Table 4-4). Despite this overall stability, there are noticeable
shifts in take-up rates at the bottom and top AIME quintiles. For workers in the lowest
earnings quintile, take-up rates are expected to increase from 54 percent for those born in the
early 1930s to 71 percent for 62-year-olds born in the early 1940s, and then decline to 63
percent for those born in the early 1960s. In contrast, take-up rates at age 62 for the highest
earnings quintile are projected to decrease over the 35-year period by 7 percentage points
(from 49 percent for those born in the early 1930s to 42 percent for those born in the early
1960s). The middle AIME quintiles are expected to have fairly stable take-up rates. One can
attribute the higher take-up rates to greater Social Security coverage among all workers and
increased Social Security eligibility among women based on their own earnings, which allows
them more independence in the takeTable 4-4. Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Taken Up Social Security Benefits
By Age
1931-35
By Age 62
Total
Female
Male
AIME Quintile
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
By Age 65
Total
Female
Male
AIME Quintile
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
Year of Birth
1941-45
1951-55
1961-65
All
57
61
53
59
65
53
57
63
51
56
61
52
57
62
52
54
69
57
57
49
71
72
58
54
42
67
67
59
49
43
63
66
58
53
42
65
67
58
53
43
91
91
91
92
93
91
90
92
87
89
90
88
90
92
89
81
95
93
93
94
90
96
94
93
88
89
95
93
89
81
88
95
93
87
81
88
95
93
91
85
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
IV-6
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
up decision relative to women without earnings who have to wait for their husband to take-up
Social Security before collecting a benefit.3
Female labor force participation rates at ages 62 and 65 rise markedly between the early
1930s and early 1950s cohorts, while men’s participation rates decline slight over the same
period. At age 65, the rise in female participation is largely offset by the decline in male
participation leaving aggregate participation rates fairly constant over the 35-year period.
These results are summarized in Table 4-5.
Table 4-5. Percentage of Workers with Positive Earningsa by Age
Year of Birth
1931-35 1941-45 1951-55 1961-65
All
By Age 62
Total
Female
Male
All Beneficiaries
Female Beneficiary
Male Beneficiary
By Age 65
Total
Female
Male
All Beneficiaries
Female Beneficiary
Male Beneficiary
61
50
74
62
58
68
67
62
73
67
65
70
65
60
70
51
42
64
51
51
53
53
51
55
56
58
53
53
52
54
45
37
56
43
39
47
46
41
52
46
43
49
45
41
50
45
37
55
40
37
44
42
39
46
42
40
44
42
40
46
a/ Table is limited to non-institutionalized workers (have earnings after age 50) who never get DI
benefits. Total includes both Social Security beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries. Beneficiaries include
only old age and survivor beneficiaries.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
Social Security beneficiaries often remain in the labor force even after beginning to
collect their benefits. In fact, over half of beneficiaries at age 62 remain active in the labor
force for all retirement groups. This number drops to slightly below half for beneficiaries at
age 65. The proportion of female Social Security beneficiaries who remain in the labor force at
age 62 is projected to increase from 42 percent for those born in the early 1930s to 58 percent
for those born in the early 1960s, while male beneficiary participation is projected to fall from
3
Appendix Table A4-3a shows more detailed projections of retirement age by gender and cohort. Appendix
Table A4-3b shows more detailed projections of Social Security benefit take-up age by gender and cohort.
Appendix Table A4-3c shows more detailed projections of Social Security take-up by AIME quintile and cohort.
IV-7
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
64 percent for those born in the early 1930s to 53 percent for men born in the early 1960s. A
continued decline in labor force participation for beneficiary men is equally offset by an
increase in participation for beneficiary women, leaving aggregate participation rates fairly
constant over time.4
Comparison with MINT3
MINT3 and MINT4 both show an initial rise and then fall in retirement rates by age 62
over time. However, MINT3 retirement rates are slightly higher than MINT4 rates especially
for later cohorts. Both models find that about 57 percent of 62-year-olds workers will be
retired for those born in the early 1930s, but for those born in the early 1960s, MINT3 projects
66 percent of workers to be retired, while MINT4 projects only 64 percent of workers to be
retired. At age 65, MINT3 and MINT4 both project slight declines in retirement rates for
women, offset by fairly substantial increases in retirement rates for males. Retirement rates at
age 65 in MINT3 remain higher than those in MINT4.
Both models project overall stability in Social Security take-up rates over time as well
as similar take-up rate levels. MINT3 and MINT4 both project a significant increase in takeup for the lowest AIME quintile and a significant decline in take-up rates for the highest
earners between the 1931 and 1965 cohorts.
Labor force participation rates are about 2 percentage points lower in MINT4 than in
MINT3. MINT3 projects that male labor force participation rates will decline monotonically
across 10-year intervals between those born in the early 1930s to those born in the early 1960s,
while MINT4 projects that male rates will fluctuate over this period with rates declining,
rising, and then declining again.
MINT3 and MINT4 project similar trends for the male and female labor force
participation rates of Social Security beneficiaries. Like total labor force participation, MINT4
projects labor force participation rates that are about 2 percentage points lower among
beneficiaries compared to MINT3.
4
Appendix tables A4-4a and A4-4b show more detailed projections of labor force participation. Table A4-4a
includes individuals who never work from age 50 and older; Table A4-4b excludes them. Table A4-4c shows the
employment status and earnings by benefit type (DI, OASI, none) at age 62. MINT4 appears to project
substantial increases in work effort among non-beneficiaries. This is partly due to an increase in Social Security
coverage rates and worker eligibility, where a larger share of non-beneficiaries in early cohorts were retired from
non-covered employment or not qualified for Social Security under their own work history compared to later
cohorts, and partly due to the projection process, which tends to assign a very low number for annual earnings
rather than a zero to someone who is essentially out of the labor force.
IV-8
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
V.
APRIL 2005
PENSION COVERAGE
Results and Trends
Table 4-6 summarizes pension coverage projections at age 62 by year of birth and
coverage type. MINT4 projects that pension coverage at age 62 will decline from 61 to 57
percent between individuals born in the early 1930s to those born in the early 1960s. The
decline in pension coverage occurs despite higher labor force participation among women in
the later cohorts compared to the earlier cohorts.
MINT4 projects that job-based pension (DB or DC) coverage will increase slightly over
time and the mix in pension type will shift away from defined benefit pensions to defined
contribution pensions. MINT4 does not project any new IRA accounts beyond those observed
on the base SIPP data, nor does it project IRA roll-overs from DC accounts. As a result, IRA
coverage rates decline for later cohorts and DC coverage rates probably increase more than
they otherwise would, with the net effect on coverage rates unclear for later cohorts.
Table 4-6. Pension Coverage at Age 62
Year of Birth
All Individuals at Age 62
Any coverage (DB, DC, or IRA)
DB or DC coverage
DB coverage
DC coverage
IRA coverage
DB or DC
Total
Female
Male
Bottom AIME Quintile
Second AIME Quintile
Third AIME Quintile
Fourth AIME Quintile
Top AIME Quintile
1931-35
1941-45
1951-55
1961-65
All
61%
47
44
6
28
59%
47
38
20
26
58%
49
36
26
20
57%
52
33
36
12
58%
50
36
27
19
47
36
60
47
39
56
49
44
55
52
48
57
50
44
57
16
32
53
66
71
12
34
51
65
73
14
35
56
68
75
26
41
53
65
78
14
24
33
38
49
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
MINT4 projects that overall employment pension coverage rates (DB or DC) for 62year-olds will increase from 47 percent for individuals born in the early 1930s to 52 percent for
IV-9
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
those born in the early 1960s. DB coverage rates will decrease from 44 percent for the early
1930s cohorts to 33 percent the early 1960s cohorts, while DC coverage rates increase from 6
percent to 36 percent across the same period. The rate of dual coverage (have both DB and DC
pension plans) is projected to increase from 3 percent of 62-year-olds born in the early 1930s
to 17 percent of 62-year-olds born in the early 1960s. The rise in dual coverage reflects, in
part, the increase in job changes among later cohorts compared to earlier cohorts, which
increases the probability of having multiple pension types, and the increase in employers that
provided dual coverage. The rise in job-based coverage rates reflects mostly an increase in
female coverage arising from increased female labor force participation. Male coverage rates
are projected to decline slightly between those born in the early 1930s and those born in the
early 1950s.
Pension coverage is higher for high earners than for low earners, and coverage rates
within lifetime earning quintiles are projected to change over time. MINT4 projects that jobbased coverage rates among low earners will decline slightly between the early 1930s cohorts
and the early 1940s cohorts (from 16 percent to 12 percent for the bottom earnings quintile)
and then rise dramatically (to 26 percent) for 62-year-olds born in the early 1960s. Coverage
in the top earnings group will increase between the early 1930s and early 1960s cohorts (from
71 percent to 78 percent). Coverage rates in the third and fourth lifetime earnings quintiles,
however, remain fairly stable over time.5 The increase at the bottom of the AIME distribution
reflects increased pension coverage of women as they become more strongly attached to the
labor market over time.
Comparison with MINT3
Pension coverage rates in MINT3 and MINT4 show similar trends over time. Both
project a slight decline in total coverage, with a rise in DC pension coverage and decline in DB
coverage. MINT4, however, projects slightly higher (about 5 percentage points) DB coverage
and slightly lower (about 4 percentage points) DC coverage for most 62-year-olds than does
MINT3. Total pension coverage is slightly higher on MINT4 than MINT3 for the early
cohorts and slightly lower for the later cohorts. Changes in pension coverage across cohorts
are smaller in MINT4 than in MINT3 despite MINT4’s smaller sample size. The differences
are larger for earlier cohorts, where pension characteristics come primarily from the underlying
SIPP data.
VI.
RETIREMENT WEALTH
Results and Trends
MINT4 projects that future retirement cohorts will enjoy greater retirement wealth
relative to economy-wide average wages than earlier retirement cohorts have had (see Table 47). The increase comes from substantial growth of both assets in defined contribution pension
5
Appendix Table A4-6a shows pension coverage by pension type, gender, and cohort. Appendix Table A4-6b
shows the same by AIME quintile and cohort.
IV-10
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
plans, including IRAs, and financial wealth outside of pension plans. The top five percent of
the wealth distribution among all cohorts has a large share of both forms of wealth. Over time,
DC account balances comprise a rising fraction of total financial wealth. Home ownership
rates fall slightly for married couples but increase for singles. Despite the increasing home
ownership rate of singles, they still have lower ownership rates than couples. The aggregate
trend is dominated by the couple trend, as married couples still represent the bulk of 62-yearolds, and total home ownership rates decline over time. Housing equity rises for 62-year-olds
born in the early 1930s to those born in the early 1950s, and equity falls for subsequent
cohorts.
Table 4-7. Mean Wealth of Retirement Cohorts at Age 62
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
1931-35
Financial Assets (per capita)
Entire Sample (mean)
Total
Defined Contribution Plans (including
IRAs)
Non-pension Financial Wealth
Year of Birth
1941-45 1951-55 1961-65
All
10.1
7.5
11.6
12.3
10.5
0.5
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.3
9.5
6.3
10.2
10.7
9.2
2.5
3.5
4.4
4.5
4.0
0.4
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.1
2.1
2.5
3.2
3.1
2.9
Housing Wealth (per capita)
All Units
Portion with Positive Housing Wealth
Mean Wealth
Mean Wealth of Those of Having Wealth
76%
1.5
2.0
73%
1.7
2.3
76%
1.9
2.5
72%
1.6
2.2
74%
1.7
2.2
Married Persons
Portion with Positive Housing Wealth
Mean Wealth
Mean Wealth of Those of Having Wealth
85%
1.5
1.8
78%
1.7
2.2
81%
1.9
2.3
77%
1.6
2.1
79%
1.7
2.1
Bottom 95% of wealth distribution (mean)
Total
Defined Contribution Plans (including
IRAs)
Non-pension Financial Wealth
Single Individuals
Portion with Positive Housing Wealth
51%
59%
64%
63%
Mean Wealth
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
Mean Wealth of Those of Having Wealth
2.9
3.4
3.1
3.2
Notes: Asset and equity values are per capita amounts. Husbands and wives split total couple assets.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
63%
2.1
3.3
Sixty-two-year-olds born in the early 1930s had, on average, financial assets equal to
10.1 times the average wage ($352,000 in $2004 dollars). The average initially falls to 7.5
times the average wage for those born in the early 1940s before it rises to 12.3 times the
IV-11
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
average wage for 62-year-olds born in the early 1960s. The wealthiest households own a large
share of the total assets of each cohort and mean values are dominated by a few outlier cases.
This is illustrated in the second set of financial wealth numbers in Table 4-7, which repeat the
earlier calculations but exclude from each cohort the wealthiest five percent of individuals.
When the wealthiest five percent are excluded, average total assets decrease by more than 60
percent and the growth of DC pension plans becomes relatively more important as a source of
growth of financial wealth in general. Excluding the top five percent of wealth holders, DC
plans grow from about 16 percent of total financial wealth among 62-year-old born in the early
1930s to 30 percent for those born in the early 1960s.
Home ownership projections present a mixed picture. Among married couples, home
ownership rates are projected to decline over time. Rates fall from 85 percent of 62-year-olds
born in the early 1930s to 77 percent for those born in the early 1960s. Mean per capita
housing wealth among married homeowners is projected to rise from 1.8 times the average
wage for those born in the early 1930s to 2.3 times the average wage for those born in the early
1950s and then fall back slightly to 2.1 times the average wage for those born in the early
1960s. These trends reflect differences in initial housing values and in projected lifetime
earnings levels among couples.6
MINT4 projects a more optimistic situation for single 62-year-olds. It projects that
homeownership rates will increase across the successive retirement cohorts from 51 percent
among those born in the early 1930s to 64 percent among those born in the early 1950s. The
mean value of housing equity as a percent of the average wage among homeowners is
projected to rise from 2.9 times the average wage for those born in the early 1930s to 3.4 for
those born in the early 1940s and then decline slightly to 3.2 times the average wage for those
born in the early 1960s. On a per capita basis, married couples have lower home equity
compared to singles, but on a household basis, home equity is higher for married couples than
for singles.
Table 4-8 shows the distribution of different forms of wealth among wealth groups.
Less than half of individuals born in the 1930s are projected to have a DC pension plan balance
when they reached age 62. DC plan balances are concentrated among the wealthiest
individuals. Among 62-year-olds born in the early 1930s, the individual at the 95th percentile
held over 5 times the DC assets held by the individual at the 80th percentile and over 6 times
the cohort average. Because of increasing DC coverage rates, the concentration decreases
slightly over time. Among those born in the early 1960s, more than half of families at age 62
will have a retirement account and the individual at the 95th percentile will hold 3.7 times the
amount held by the individual at the 80th percentile and 4.9 times the cohort average.
Both housing wealth and non-pension financial wealth are distributed somewhat more
equally than is DC pension wealth for 62-year-olds born in the early 1930s, but this
relationship changes over time. MINT4 projects both non-pension wealth and home equity to
become more unequally distributed over time. Among the 62-year-olds born in the early
6
Appendix Tables A4-6a through A4-6d show more detailed wealth breakdowns by age and cohort. Tables A46a and A4-6c include all wealth holders. Tables A4-6b and A4-6d exclude the top five percent of wealth holders
to eliminate outliers.
IV-12
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
1930s, the individual in the 95th percentile has 3.2 times more non-pension financial wealth
than the individual at the 80th percentile. Among the 62-year-olds born in the early 1960s, this
ratio increases to 5.8. The ratio of the 95th percentile to the 80th percentile home equity is
projected to rise from 2.1 for the early 1930s cohorts to 2.8 for the early 1960s cohorts.7
Table 4-8. Mean Per Capita Wealth at Age 62 at Different Points in the Wealth
Distribution
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
(Percentiles apply to each form of wealth)
Born 1931-1935
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Born 1941-1945
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Born 1951-1955
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Born 1961-1965
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Mean
Wealth
20th
Percentile
50th
Percentile
80th
Percentile
90th
Percentile
95th
Percentile
0.52
9.54
10.05
1.51
0.00
0.03
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.76
1.07
1.01
0.65
4.56
5.65
2.42
1.73
8.79
9.96
3.55
3.28
14.73
16.58
5.04
1.17
6.28
7.45
1.78
0.00
0.04
0.12
0.06
0.00
0.98
1.61
1.13
1.53
5.58
8.01
2.68
3.94
11.20
14.40
4.02
6.42
19.90
23.58
5.90
1.44
10.21
11.65
1.90
0.00
0.16
0.30
0.18
0.06
1.18
2.00
0.93
2.08
6.33
9.45
2.79
4.61
14.56
18.33
4.48
7.70
31.41
34.84
6.81
1.59
10.69
12.28
1.73
0.00
0.20
0.41
0.12
0.18
1.21
2.20
0.73
2.10
5.73
8.61
2.28
4.49
13.80
18.37
3.93
7.73
33.12
37.42
6.45
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
Comparison with MINT3
Mean financial wealth (pension and non-pension) is much higher in MINT4 than in
MINT3. This remains true even when the top 5 percent of wealth holders are removed. Mean
financial wealth in MINT4 is 3.7 times greater than in MINT3 for 62-year-olds born in the
early 1930s and 2.5 times greater for those born in the early 1950s. After removing the top 5
percent of wealth holders from the population, mean financial wealth in MINT4 remains about
30 percent higher for the early 1930s cohorts and 50 percent higher for the early 1950s cohorts
7
Appendix Table A4-7 shows wealth distributions for all retirement cohorts.
IV-13
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
at age 62. These large differences are due to the MINT4 SCF wealth adjustment described in
chapter 3 that was not included in MINT3. These differences are larger at the top end of the
wealth distribution, but even median values are about 20 percent higher in MINT4 than in
MINT3. Both MINT3 and MINT4 project financial assets to increase over time.
Unlike financial wealth, home ownership rates and housing wealth in MINT3 and
MINT4 show more similarity, though in both cases MINT3 tends to have higher values than
MINT4. Married home ownership rates are about in MINT3 and MINT4 are comparable, but
single ownership rates are about 5 percentage points lower in MINT4 than in MINT3. Housing
wealth is also higher in MINT3 than in MINT4, and like other forms of income in MINT3,
housing wealth peaks for the late 1940 cohorts, while it peaks for the early 1950 cohorts in
MINT4.
In both MINT3 and MINT4, financial and housing wealth tends to become more
concentrated with the wealthy over time. Both models project an increase in the ratio of
financial wealth for the individual in the 95th percentile to financial wealth for the individual in
the 80th percentile. That ratio increases from 2.6 for the early 1930s cohorts to 3.3 for the late
1950s cohorts in MINT3, and from 2.9 to 3.7 in MINT4 for the same groups. MINT4 has
slightly greater disparity between the 95th and 80th percentiles of financial wealth in most
cohorts compared to MINT3. In contrast, this ratio is nearly identical for housing wealth in
MINT3 and MINT4.
MINT4 projects that DC pension wealth will become less concentrated over time, while
MINT3 projects that it will become slightly more concentrated over time. This is the only
wealth category for either model that exhibits a more equal distribution for the later cohorts
compared to the early cohorts. Nevertheless, the disparity between the 95th and 80th percentiles
for DC pension wealth in MINT4 remains higher than MINT3’s after the decline. Non-pension
wealth is higher in MINT4 than in MINT3 for all individuals above the 20th percentile.
Differences in both the pension and non-pension wealth in MINT4 are due to the SCF wealth
adjustment described in chapter 3 that was not included in MINT3.
VII. INCOME AT AGE 62
Results and Trends
MINT4 projects that average per capita income relative to the economy-wide average
wage at age 62 will rise between those born in the early 1930s and those born in the early
1950s. Average per capita income then falls for cohorts born in the early 1960s (see Table 49). From an average of 99 percent of the average wage among the earliest cohorts, per capita
income is projected to rise to 111 percent for the early 1950s cohorts before dropping back to
106 percent for the 62-year-olds born in the early 1960s. (In order to insulate the income
trends from the effect of changes among a few outliers, these calculations exclude the records
of the five percent of the sample in each cohort that had the highest per capita income from
assets.)
IV-14
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-9. Per Capita Income at Age 62 by Year of Birth
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Year of Birth
1931-35
0.99
1941-45
1.09
1951-55
1.11
1961-65
1.06
All
1.06
By Source:
Social Security Benefits
Financial Assets
Defined Benefit Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.54
0.04
0.16
0.18
0.11
0.60
0.05
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
0.14
0.22
0.06
0.58
0.05
0.15
0.20
0.08
0.58
0.05
By Gender:
Females
Males
0.90
1.08
0.98
1.20
1.02
1.21
0.99
1.12
0.98
1.14
By Marital Status:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
0.74
1.05
0.72
0.88
0.83
1.12
0.84
1.16
0.97
1.15
0.89
1.12
0.88
1.08
0.97
1.09
0.89
1.09
0.87
1.07
By Race/Ethnicity:
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
1.06
0.71
0.66
1.19
0.79
0.70
1.23
0.83
0.72
1.21
0.71
0.75
1.17
0.77
0.70
By Education Level:
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
0.59
0.93
1.95
0.51
0.98
1.78
0.42
0.95
1.76
0.45
0.89
1.75
0.49
0.92
1.71
By AIME Quintile:
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
0.22
0.53
0.83
1.19
2.55
0.23
0.56
0.90
1.39
2.74
0.22
0.56
0.93
1.47
2.87
0.21
0.51
0.84
1.35
2.80
0.22
0.53
0.87
1.36
2.70
All Individuals
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort. Source:
The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
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CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Increases in relative per capita income between those born in the early 1930s and the
early 1950s are the result of increases in income from financial assets (including DC pension
and IRA balances), and earnings. These increases are offset partially by a significant reduction
in income from defined benefit pensions. MINT4 projects that income from financial assets
will rise from an average of 13 percent of the average wage among 62-year-olds born in the
early 1930s to 22 percent of the average wage among those born in the early 1950s. It is
important to keep in mind that only about half of individuals have retired and taken up Social
Security at age 62. The relative values of earnings, Social Security, and pension income reflect
the mixed employment status of 62-year-olds.
The decline in per capita income relative to the average wage at age 62 for individuals
born in the early 1960s compared to the early 1950s results from a decline in DB pensions and
earned income. Average relative capita earnings declines by 6 percent, from 63 percent of the
average wage in the early 1950s cohorts to 58 percent of the average wage in 1960s cohorts.
This reflects a decline in male employment rates at age 62 for early 1960s cohorts compared to
early 1950s. Pension income continues to fall over the same time period, and there is also a
slight projected decrease in income received from financial assets, while income from Social
Security and housing assets remain steady.
Between the early 1930s and early 1950s cohorts, average relative per capita income
increases regardless of marital status, with the income of divorced individuals increasing by 28
percent over the time period due mainly to increases in earned income and a near doubling of
financial assets.8 However, relative per capita income falls for all marital groups born in the
early 1960s except widows. During this period, DB pension income generally decreases more
than financial income increases—DC pension income does not fully replace the lost DB
pension income.
Non-Hispanic Whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics all experience an increase in
average relative per capita income at age 62 between the early 1930s and early 1950s cohorts.
Between the early 1950s and early 1960s cohorts, however, average relative per capita income
of Hispanics continues to rise, while average relative per capita incomes of non-Hispanic
Whites and African-Americans fall. From the early 1930s cohort to the early 1950s cohorts,
each racial/ethnic group sees a rise in earned income and financial income, which is partially
offset by a decline in DB pension income. Social Security benefits relative to the average
wage remain fairly stable in all race groups between the early 1930s and early 1950s cohorts,
but they fluctuate more for African-Americans than other race groups. While Hispanics have
lower average per capita income at age 62 compared to African-Americans for cohorts born
before the early 1960s, MINT4 projects that average Hispanic income will rise above AfricanAmerican income at age 62 for individuals born in the early 1960s.
While average relative per capita total income at age 62 fluctuates across cohorts, this
fluctuation is dominated by the projections of college-educated 62-year-olds. Average relative
8
Detailed cross tabulations by cohort and income source for each gender, marital status, ethnic group, education
level, and AIME quintile at age 62 are shown in appendix tables A4-8a to A4-8f.
IV-16
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
per capita income of high school graduates declines from the early 1930s cohort through the
early 1950s cohorts. Dropouts see some gains between the early 1950s and early 1960s
cohorts, but they still lag behind other education groups and see no long-term improvement in
relative economic well-being. Average per capita income of 62-year-old college graduates
falls, rises, and falls again across cohorts.9 This fluctuation is dominated by their earnings,
which continue to be a major source of income of 62-year-olds. College graduates also see a
substantial increase in average Social Security income at age 62 over time, as college graduates
in later cohorts increasingly opt for early retirement compared to earlier cohorts. Note that
income relative to the average wage is falling for all education groups, but rising in total. This
happens because the share of the population that is higher educated increases between the early
1930s and early 1950s cohorts.
Most of the changes in relative per capita income of 62-year-olds occur in the top two
lifetime earnings quintiles. Between the early 1930s and early 1950s cohorts, per capita
income in the top earnings quintile is projected to increase from 2.6 times the average wage to
2.9 times the average wage. Per capita income then falls to 2.8 times the average wage for top
earners in the early 1960s cohorts. Over the same time period, per capita income for those in
the bottom earnings quintile is projected to remain about 0.22 times the average wage. For
individuals in the bottom earnings quintile, per capita income is dominated by trends in Social
Security benefits, while per capita income in the upper quintiles is dominated by earned
income. Over half (52 percent) of per capita income of 62-year-olds in the bottom lifetime
earnings quintile comes from Social Security, while it represents only 4 percent for the top
earners. About 17 percent of per capita income at age 62 comes from earnings for those in the
bottom lifetime earnings, while it represents 67 percent of per capita income for top lifetime
earners.
Comparison with MINT3
Average per capita income levels at age 62 tend to be about 3 percent higher in MINT4
than in MINT3 for all retirement groups. While per capita income for 62-year-olds born in the
early 1950s is comparable for the two models, at 111 percent of the average wage, per capita
income is higher for prior and subsequent cohorts in MINT4 compared to MINT3. Total per
capita income at age 62 peaks for those born in the late 1940s in MINT3, but peaks for those
born in the early 1950s in MINT4. Within these broad differences, average per capita income
at age 62 is quite similar in both models by marital status, education, race, and lifetime
earnings quintile. The differences are bigger with smaller subgroups, where sample variance is
higher.
The distribution of total per capita income by source is somewhat different between
MINT3 and MINT4. Financial income is consistently higher in MINT4 than in MINT3, and
9
See Table A4-8d for more detail on relative per capita income by education and cohort.
IV-17
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
the difference increases over time. Pension income also tends to be higher in MINT4 than in
MINT3. On the other hand, earned income, Social Security benefits, and imputed rent tend to
be lower in MINT4 than in MINT3. While the levels are slightly different, the trends generally
agree.
VIII. INCOME AT AGE 67
Results and Trends
Average per capita income at age 67 for each cohort and for most subgroups within
each cohort are about 22 percent lower than those among the same subgroup at age 62, largely
because of sharply reduced levels of earnings that are only partially offset by higher average
Social Security benefits and slightly higher income from most other sources (Table 4-10).
Average per capita income among 67-year-olds born in the early 1930s is 78 percent of the
average wage. It rises to 86 percent of the average wage for those born in the early 1950s, but
falls back to 83 percent of the average wage for those born in the early 1960s. (In order to
insulate the income trends from the effect of changes among a few outliers, these calculations
exclude the records of the five percent of the sample in each cohort that had the highest per
capita income.)
Most of the differences among cohorts and subgroups that were observed at age 62 can
also be observed at age 67. As is the case at age 62, the improvement between the early 1930s
and early 1950s cohorts can be traced primarily to higher incomes from financial assets,
partially offset by declines in income from defined benefit pensions. In the case of 67-yearolds, however, there is also a small increase in average income from Social Security benefits
between those born in the early 1930s and those born in the early 1960s. Social Security
benefits are the most important source of income for 67-year-olds in all cohorts, replacing
earnings as the most important income source at age 62. Comparing the early 1930s and early
1950s cohorts, the biggest improvements in relative mean income occur among the college
educated, non-Hispanic Whites, and those in the top lifetime earnings quintiles.10 High school
dropouts see a decline in average relative income at age 67 and African-Americans and those
in the bottom four-fifths of the lifetime earnings distribution see virtually no gain in relative
income at age 67 between the early 1930s and early 1960s cohorts.
Comparison with MINT3
As with income at age 62, average per capita income at age 67 is about 9 percent
higher in MINT4 than in MINT3 for most cohort groups. While total income for those
10
Detailed cross tabulations by cohort and income source for each marital status, ethnic group, and AIME quintile
at age 67 are shown in appendix tables A4-9a through A4-9f.
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CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-10. Per Capita Income at Age 67 by Year of Birth
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Year of Birth
1931-35
1941-45
1951-55
1961-65
All
All Individuals
0.78
0.82
0.86
0.83
0.83
By Source:
Social Security Benefits
Financial Assets
Defined Benefit Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.25
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.05
0.27
0.20
0.13
0.16
0.05
0.28
0.24
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.27
0.22
0.10
0.18
0.05
By Gender:
Female
Male
0.72
0.84
0.78
0.86
0.82
0.90
0.79
0.88
0.79
0.87
By Marital Status:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
0.70
0.81
0.69
0.71
0.68
0.84
0.76
0.79
0.72
0.88
0.78
0.86
0.74
0.84
0.85
0.82
0.72
0.84
0.78
0.82
By Race/Ethnicity:
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
0.83
0.58
0.54
0.90
0.56
0.50
0.95
0.62
0.55
0.95
0.58
0.60
0.92
0.60
0.56
By Education Level:
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
0.51
0.79
1.22
0.41
0.79
1.17
0.36
0.78
1.22
0.38
0.74
1.28
0.41
0.76
1.22
By AIME Quintile:
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
0.23
0.47
0.72
1.02
1.67
0.23
0.47
0.72
1.09
1.87
0.23
0.48
0.73
1.12
2.05
0.22
0.44
0.67
1.07
2.10
0.22
0.46
0.71
1.07
1.95
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
IV-19
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
born in the late 1940s is comparable in the two models at about 82 percent of the average
wage, total income is higher for prior and subsequent cohorts in MINT4 compared to MINT3.
Total per capita income at age 67 peaks for the late 1940s cohorts in MINT3, but it peaks for
the early 1950s cohorts in MINT4.
As with income at age 62, the distribution of total per capita income at age 67 by source
is somewhat different between MINT3 and MINT4. Financial income is consistently higher in
MINT4 than in MINT3, and the difference increases over time. Pension income also tends to
be higher in MINT4 than in MINT3. On the other hand, earned income, Social Security
benefits, and imputed rent tend to be lower in MINT4 than in MINT3. While the levels are
slightly different, the trends generally agree.
After examining income at ages 62 and 67, MINT4 projects higher income compared to
MINT3 and income peaks for a slightly later cohort in MINT4. Furthermore, income in
MINT4 is less evenly distributed than income in MINT3, with a greater amount of income
going to married couples, college graduates, and those in the top lifetime earnings quintiles.
The wealth projections are systematically higher in MINT4 than in MINT3 as a consequence
of the SCF wealth alignment. Wealth is extremely unevenly distributed and much of the
higher wealth is projected for individuals in the top 5 percent of the wealth distribution. We
have excluded the top 5 percent of wealth holders in much of this analysis to minimize the
impact of outliers.
IX.
LIVING ARRANGEMENTS AND SSI BENEFITS
Results and Trends
Living arrangements and SSI benefits at age 67 are summarized in Table 4-11. MINT4
projects that about 86 percent of individuals in all MINT4 cohorts will live independently at
age 67. High school dropouts, non-Whites, and never married individuals are much less likely
to live independently than other individuals, with less than 80 percent of each of these
respective groups living on their own. Men are more likely to live independently than are
women, and among both men and women, married couples are the most likely to be
independent, while never married persons are the least likely.
MINT4 projects that about 6.8 percent of 67-year-olds born in the early 1930s will be
eligible for SSI. This percent declines with successive cohort groups, because SSI program
parameters are either not indexed or indexed only to changes in prices.11 For 67-year-olds born
in the late 1960s, only 2.3 percent will be eligible for SSI. High school dropouts and never
married persons are more likely to be eligible for SSI than other groups. Hispanic and AfricanAmerican individuals are also more likely to be eligible for SSI than are non-Hispanic White
individuals.
11
We use historic values up to year 2000. SSI state supplement growth rates vary by state and in some cases are
inversely related to the federal benefit. State SSI growth rates are based on the change between the 1999 and
2000 state supplement amounts. We assume federal benefits increase by CPI.
IV-20
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-11. Living Arrangements and SSI Recipiency at Age 67
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
By Gender/Marital Status
Female:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
Male:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
% Living
Independently
(All)
%
Eligible
for SSI
SSI
Take
Up
Rate
Average
SSI
Benefita
% Living
Independent
ly (SSI
Recipients)
86
3.8
80.3
0.10
71
77
86
89
15.1
2.6
0.8
85.5
73.3
82.3
0.11
0.10
0.11
72
70
69
88
79
78
74
1.9
7.7
8.2
12.3
77.2
81.4
81.0
84.1
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.14
82
70
60
66
84
68
87
82
83
87
74
88
85
86
4.7
13.2
2.3
8.1
6.4
2.8
12.7
1.7
2.9
3.5
82.3
84.1
72.5
86.4
87.6
76.3
81.6
72.4
73.7
78.1
0.11
0.11
0.09
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.09
0.09
72
77
70
75
72
70
72
63
77
79
84
85
85
86
86
86
86
85
6.8
5.9
4.8
4.5
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.3
80.1
83.0
74.1
73.5
81.4
82.2
84.7
87.5
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
71
65
69
72
75
74
78
65
a/ Ratio of mean SSI benefit to average wage.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
Of those that are eligible for SSI at age 67, 80 percent are expected to take up their
benefit. Non-Hispanic Whites have lower take up rates compared with Hispanics and AfricanAmericans, as do males relative to females. Among those drawing benefits, average SSI
benefit at age 67 is 0.1 times the average wage, and benefits vary little among subgroups or
across cohorts.
IV-21
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Comparison with MINT3
Living arrangements and SSI eligibility are similar in MINT3 and MINT4 for the
overlapping cohorts, with little variation between the two overall or within subgroups.
X.
INCOME IN 2020
Results and Trends
MINT4 tracks the annual income of people born from 1926 to 1972 from age 62 for as
long as they are projected to live, simulating the spend down of their accumulated assets, their
changes in marital status – particularly changes resulting from the death of a spouse, changes
in labor force behavior and earnings, and the cost of living adjustments in their private and
public pension plans.12 The result is a snapshot of the population age 62 through 89 in the year
2020 that is summarized in Table 4-12.13 Many of the patterns seen in this table were also
visible in the analysis of incomes at age 62 or age 67.
Per capita income of the aged population in 2020, not including co-resident income,
averages 86 percent of the average wage. About 30 percent of this income is derived from
Social Security benefits, income from assets account for 29 percent of income, while earnings
accounts for nearly one quarter of total income. DB pensions and housing assets were of less
importance, together comprising another 17 percent of per capita income.
These averages are not representative of all individuals, however, as income levels and
the relative importance of income sources vary widely for different subsets of the population.
This is especially apparent when examining the per capita income of individuals based on
educational attainment, income quintile, and age. MINT4 projects the income of college
graduates to be over three times that of high school dropouts and nearly 60 percent higher than
high school graduates. Projected per capita income in 2020 for non-Hispanic Whites is about
60 percent higher than per capita income for other ethnic groups, and married individuals are
expected to have about 12 percent higher per capita income compared to unmarried
individuals. Per capita income is also higher for younger individuals compare to older
individuals with 62-year-olds having about 30
12
These projections include backcasted values for pensions, financial assets, and home equity before the SIPP
interview date for individuals older than 62 in 1996. Social Security, SSI, and earnings are available from the
administrative data.
13
These results exclude the wealthiest five percent. Had this group been included, financial assets and earned
income would account for a much larger portion of per capita income than they do in Table 4-12. Furthermore,
income inequality between the top and bottom quintiles worsens. Per capita income results including the top five
percent of wealth holders can be found in appendix Table A4-12b.
IV-22
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-12. Per Capita Income in 2020 of Persons Aged 62-89
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage) a
Percent of
Individuals
Total
Incomeb
Social
Security
Benefits
DB
Pensions
Other
Financial
Wealth
Earnings
Imputed
Rental
Income
100%
0.86
0.26
0.10
0.25
0.20
0.05
0.40
0.79
1.25
0.17
0.26
0.30
0.04
0.09
0.16
0.08
0.22
0.40
0.08
0.17
0.31
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.95
0.61
0.52
0.63
0.27
0.24
0.20
0.16
0.11
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.29
0.09
0.10
0.18
0.21
0.17
0.13
0.19
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.82
0.91
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.10
0.24
0.27
0.16
0.24
0.05
0.05
0.75
0.89
0.79
0.85
0.22
0.24
0.29
0.29
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.20
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.05
1.03
0.86
0.79
0.80
0.78
0.80
0.18
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.26
0.29
0.31
0.49
0.19
0.11
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.86
0.75
0.17
1.08
0.29
0.27
0.06
0.03
0.11
0.06
0.00
0.05
0.27
0.19
0.00
0.23
0.14
0.18
0.00
0.74
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.04
0.22
0.47
0.72
1.12
2.07
0.15
0.26
0.29
0.30
0.32
0.01
0.05
0.09
0.14
0.24
0.02
0.07
0.16
0.36
0.77
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.26
0.64
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.11
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
13
High School Graduate
62
College Graduate
26
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
76
African-American
10
Hispanic
8
Other
6
By Gender
Female
57
Male
43
By Marital Status
Never Married
6
Married
60
Widowed
18
Divorced
16
By Age
62 to 64
20
65 to 69
28
70 to 74
22
75 to 79
14
80 to 84
9
85 to 89
6
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
84
DI Recipient
3
SSI Recipient
3
Non-beneficiary
10
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
21
Second quintile
21
Third quintile
21
Fourth quintile
21
Top quintile
16
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
IV-23
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
percent more income than 89-year-olds. Individuals in the highest income quintile have more
than 9 times the retirement income as those in the bottom income quintile.
Furthermore, the income sources also vary by subgroup. Social Security is a larger
share of total income for individuals in lower socio-economic groups such as high school
dropouts, African-Americans, and those in the bottom income quintile. Earnings represent a
larger share of total income for younger individuals compared to older individuals, while
Social Security represents a larger share of total income for older individuals compared to
younger individuals. Earnings also represent a larger share of total income for individuals in
the highest income quintile. DB pension income is a larger source of income for older
individuals compared to younger individuals, reflecting the higher DB pension coverage rates
among workers in earlier cohorts compared to later cohorts. Older individuals also have more
income from financial assets, reflecting both mortality bias (poorer individuals are more likely
to die before reaching old age) and inheritance of joint assets among old age survivors.
Comparison with MINT3
As was the case at ages 62 and 67, per capita income in 2020 is consistently higher in
MINT4 than in MINT3. Projected average per capita income in 2020 is 79 percent of the
average wage in MINT3 and 86 percent of the average wage in MINT4. Social Security
benefits remain the most important source of income for MINT3 and MINT4 and are nearly
identical in both models, even across subsets. Imputed rental income is similar across
population subsets as well, though it tends to be slightly higher in MINT3 than in MINT4.
The models diverge, however, in the overall levels and importance of pension and
financial assets income. Even after excluding the wealthiest five percent, income received
from DB pension plans is 15 percent higher in MINT4 and exceeds DB income in MINT3
across nearly all population subsets and asset income is over 40 percent higher in MINT4 than
in MINT3. Subgroups that have more assets also have significantly higher per capita income
in MINT4 compared to MINT3. These subgroups include college graduates, non-Hispanic
Whites, and top lifetime earners.
Projected total per capita income in 2020 is more unequal in MINT4 than in MINT3,
but earnings are more equal in MINT4 than in MINT3. The average per capita earnings are
about 20 percent of the average wage in both MINT3 and MINT4, but the distribution of
earnings by lifetime earnings quintile vary. Per capita earnings for the top lifetime earnings
quintile is 75 percent of the average wage in MINT3 and 64 percent of the average wage in
MINT4. Earnings in the bottom four quintiles are slightly lower in MINT3 compared to
MINT4, keeping the overall average across models the same.
IV-24
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
XI.
APRIL 2005
CO-RESIDENT INCOME
Results and Trends
Non-spouse co-resident family members are often an important source of income for
older individuals. MINT4 projects that 14 percent of 62- to 89-year-olds will co-reside in 2020
(see Table 4-13). The proportion of individuals who co-reside is expected to decrease from 16
to 12 percent for persons age 62 to 84. At later ages, one might expect to see an increase in the
fraction of individuals who co-reside, resulting from a greater need for assistance due to poor
health and declining financial circumstances later on in life. This does not occur, however.
The decline in co-residers, then, may be the result of co-residing children leaving the
household. Nevertheless, older individuals’ greater need for assistance does becomes evident
upon examination of the income of co-resident family members, which rises from 73 percent of
the average wage for 62- to 64-olds to 89 percent of the average wage for 80- to 84-year olds.
Individuals in the bottom per capita income quintile are more likely to co-reside than
those in the top per capita income quintile (22 percent versus 11 percent); however, for the
most part, the income of the co-resident members is lower among the wealthier aged than
poorer aged. This reflects both the need of the co-resider and the ability of the co-resident
family to support the aged individual. Using the poverty threshold to adjust income for family
size, the income of co-resident family members improves the economic position of those in the
lower income quintiles, but reduces slightly the economic position of the highest income
group. Co-resident income among those in the bottom per capita income quintile raises family
income relative to poverty from 1.2 to 2.9 while co-resident income reduces family income
relative to poverty from 12.3 to 11.1 for those in the top per capita income quintile. It is
important to consider, however, that co-residence is not always based on need. In many cases
co-residence is the family social norm.
Including co-resident income in the measure of well-being increases family income
divided by poverty for all education and racial groups, but it increases family well-being more
for lower-educated individuals compared to higher-educated individuals, for African-American
and Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic Whites, and for older individuals compared to
younger individuals.
Comparison with MINT3
The proportion of individuals who co-reside in MINT3 and MINT4 are quite similar,
including within subsets of the population. Fourteen percent of individuals co-reside in both
MINT3 and in MINT4 in 2020. Projected co-resident income is also similar in both models as
are family income to poverty ratios. MINT4 projects slightly lower rates of co-residency
among low earners compare to MINT3 and slightly higher rates among high earners.
IV-25
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-13. Income of Co-resident Family Members in 2020 of Co-residing Individualsa
Percent
Coresiding
Income of
Coresident
Family
Membersb
Family
Income/Poverty
(Exclude Coresident Income)
Family
Income/Poverty
(Include Coresident Income)
14
0.77
4.3
5.3
24
14
11
0.88
0.74
0.75
2.1
4.0
7.6
3.7
5.1
7.6
11
22
22
28
0.69
0.71
0.94
1.09
5.1
3.3
2.8
3.6
5.8
4.6
4.0
4.5
22
14
13
11
11
0.80
0.78
0.75
0.75
0.77
1.2
2.7
4.2
6.7
12.3
2.9
4.2
5.2
7.1
11.1
16
15
13
14
12
13
0.73
0.77
0.79
0.75
0.89
0.84
5.4
4.0
4.3
3.9
4.1
3.2
6.0
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.4
4.7
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
Per Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
Second quintile
Third quintile
Fourth quintile
Top quintile
By Age
62 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
a/ Includes all co-residing individuals including the top 5 percent of wealth holders.
b/ Total income of co-resident family members other than a spouse divided by the average wage.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
XII. MEASURING POVERTY
Results and Trends
We measure poverty rates using the official poverty thresholds of the U.S. Bureau of
the Census. These thresholds vary with family size; the poverty threshold for a married couple
age 65 and over is 1.26 times the poverty rate of a single individual. To avoid an arbitrary
change in poverty status when someone’s age increases from 64 to 65, we use the age 65 and
IV-26
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
over poverty thresholds to calculate the ratio of income to poverty levels for all individuals age
62 and over.14
We modify the definition of income used by the Census Bureau for measuring poverty
in several ways. First, we impute income from assets by multiplying projected wealth by a real
return of 3 percent. This discount rate is meant to represent an estimate
of the long-run yield on high-quality bonds. The Census Bureau, in contrast, measures
people’s income from assets directly, but their income measure is conceptually different from
the one we use. Census measures nominal income, which includes both the real return on
assets and the portion of income that merely compensates asset owners for the decline in the
value of their principal due to inflation. We would have higher investment incomes, and
therefore lower poverty, if we were to impute a nominal return to projected wealth.15 We use a
measure of real income instead of nominal income because we do not want to show people’s
economic status improving or declining over time due to changes in nominal incomes
attributable to changes in forecasts of the inflation rate. Changes that alter only nominal
incomes do not affect living standards.
A second difference between our income measure and that used by the Census Bureau
is that we include the return of capital as a part of the income from financial assets, while the
Census includes only the interest and dividends from assets. Census does, however, include
the full amount of annual payments from private defined benefit pension plans and Social
Security in their definition of income, even though some of the payments from these and other
annuities represent a return of contributions instead of income from wealth. To ensure
consistency between the treatment of annuities and other assets, we also count the potential
annual annuity payments from other assets as income.
An issue, of course, is how to measure the potential annuity payments from other
assets. If each person knew how long he or she would live or could purchase an actuarially fair
annuity, we could calculate the annual consumption that his or her wealth could finance after
age 62. In reality, individuals must set aside part of their wealth to self-insure against the risk
of outliving their assets if they are unwilling to purchase an annuity at the rates available to
them in private markets. To measure income from assets, we calculate an actuarially fair
annuity, using life expectancy projections in MINT1 (Panis and Lillard 1999) that are based on
age, birth year, martial status, gender, race, and educational attainment. We include only 80
percent of this annuity value in income from assets. The reduction factor we apply in
14
In 2000, the poverty threshold for a couple age 65 and older was $10,419 and $8,259 for a single individual age
65 and older (Dalaker 2001). A couple with combined income of $12,000 would have income that is 115 percent
of poverty (above the poverty threshold). A single individual with half of the couples' income ($6,000) would
have income that is 73 percent of poverty (below the poverty threshold). On a per capita basis, the well-being of
these single and married individuals is the same. On a poverty equivalent basis, the single individual is
considerably worse off.
15
We would also impute a higher investment yield if we used a rate of return that reflected the average return on a
more representative portfolio of stocks and bonds. But, working in the other direction, Census understates the
nominal yield on assets because their measure of income excludes certain sources of income, most notably capital
gains, and also undercounts income from dividends and interest relative to incomes reported to the IRS.
IV-27
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
measuring income is meant to approximate an adjustment for the risk of living beyond one’s
life expectancy.
We include return of capital from financial assets that people hold in the form of
defined contribution wealth and assets outside of pension plans in our measure of retirement
income to minimize the effect on measured poverty rates of the projected shift from DB to DC
retirement plans. Without this adjustment, individuals would appear poorer from the shift in
wealth from DB plans (where the Census income measure includes return of capital) to DC
plans (where the Census measure excludes return from capital.)
Table 4-14 shows the characteristics of the population age 62 to 89, the average per
capita income, and percent of the population in poverty in the early 1990s and 2020. Earnings
and initial Social Security benefits are indexed to wage growth, while SSI and poverty
thresholds are indexed to price growth. Years of persistent real wage growth will inevitably
increase incomes relative to the price-adjusted poverty threshold and lower poverty rates.
MINT4 assumes a 1.1 percent annual real wage growth, consistent with the 2004 OCACT
economic assumptions.
MINT4 projects that poverty rates among 62- to 89-year-olds will decline from 7.8
percent in 1990 to 5.2 percent in 2020. This decline is largely attributable to the growth in real
earnings over time, which raises real Social Security benefits and other retirement income
relative to poverty. Older retirees in 2020 (young retirees today) had higher real earnings over
their lifetimes than older retirees in the 1990s, while younger retirees in 2020 are projected to
have higher real earnings in the next 20 years than their counterparts who retired in the 1990s.
While poverty rates decline for all age groups, the poverty rates for the younger age
groups do not decline as much as for older age groups. Between the early 1990s and 2020, the
poverty rates are projected to decrease from 6.1 percent to 4.2 percent for 62- to 64-year-olds
(a 31 percent reduction) and from 10.7 percent to 5.4 percent for 85- to 89-year-olds (a 50
percent reduction). Between 1990 and 2020, poverty rates are projected to decrease for college
graduates, but increase for lesser-educated retirees. The share of the aged population that
without a high school diploma declines between 1990 and 2020, so while their poverty rates
increase, they contribute less to the overall poverty rate in 2020 than they did in 1990 (see
Appendix Table A4-12d). Poverty rates are projected to decline for all ethnic groups, but they
will decline more for African-Americans (from 23.5 percent to 10.5 percent) and Hispanics
(from 19.4 percent to 9.4 percent) than for non-Hispanic Whites (from 5.7 percent to 3.3
percent). MINT4 projects that poverty rates will decline for both men (from 4.3 percent to 3.7
percent) and women (from 10.3 percent to 6.4 percent). Women’s poverty rates fall more than
men’s rates, but poverty rates remain higher among women than men. Poverty rates are
projected to decline among unmarried retirees and increase slightly for married retirees.
Poverty rates remain very high among those who have never married. Poverty rates decline by
more than half for divorced retirees. Poverty rates are much higher for immigrants who arrive
in the United States at older ages. These immigrants have fewer years of covered earnings and
lower Social Security benefits compared to native born.
IV-28
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 4-14. Population Characteristics, Average Per Capita Income, and Poverty
Rates by Selected Characteristics: 1990s and 2020
Year
1990s
2020
Percent
of
Retirees
Per
Capita
Incomea
Percent
In
Povertyb
Percent
of
Retirees
Per
Capita
Incomea
Percent
In
Povertyb
Total
100.0%
0.87
7.8%
100%
0.86
5.2%
Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
39.8%
0.68
14.4%
12.6
0.40
20.2
High School
47.5%
0.91
3.9%
61.8
0.79
3.8
Graduate
College Graduate
12.7%
1.33
2.1%
25.7
1.25
1.7
Race
White, non-Hispanic
85.5%
0.89
5.7%
76.1
0.95
3.3
African-American
7.6%
0.68
23.5%
9.9
0.61
10.5
Hispanic
4.7%
0.72
19.4%
8.2
0.52
9.4
Asian/Native
2.2%
1.09
11.9%
5.8
0.63
15.3
American
Gender
Female
57.5%
0.86
10.3%
56.8
0.82
6.4
Male
42.5%
0.89
4.3%
43.2
0.91
3.7
Marital Status
Never Married
4.6%
0.93
17.0%
5.6
0.75
14.4
Married
59.2%
0.82
2.5%
60.3
0.89
2.9
Widowed
29.2%
0.95
14.4%
18.1
0.79
8.0
Divorced
7.0%
0.90
20.2%
15.9
0.85
7.5
Age
62 to 64
16.1%
1.01
6.1%
20.0
1.03
4.2
65 to 69
27.9%
0.89
6.1%
28.1
0.86
4.9
70 to 74
22.9%
0.83
7.5%
22.4
0.79
5.4
75 to 79
16.6%
0.83
9.0%
14.1
0.80
6.0
80 to 84
12.1%
0.80
12.4%
9.3
0.78
6.4
85 to 89
4.3%
0.81
10.7%
6.1
0.80
5.4
a/ Per capita income is expressed as a percent of the average wage. It excludes individuals whose asset income
places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
b/ Poverty rate is the family income including co-resident income, but excluding imputed rental income, divided
by the family poverty threshold. An individual is in poverty if his/her income is below the poverty threshold.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4 and tabulations of the 1990-1993 SIPP.
Comparison with MINT3
MINT4 projects higher aged poverty rates in 2020 than MINT3 (5.2 percent versus 4.5
percent). MINT4 rates are generally higher in all subgroups than in MINT3, but they are
notably higher for high school dropouts (20 percent versus 17 percent) and Asian/Native
IV-29
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Americans (15 percent versus 10 percent). MINT4 projects both higher average per capita
income than MINT3 and higher poverty rates. This happens because MINT4 projects a greater
disparity in retirement compared to MINT3. MINT4 also projects a slightly higher share of
unmarried individuals (40 percent versus 38 percent), ethnic minorities (25 percent versus 24
percent), and lesser educated (74 percent versus 72 percent) in 2020 compared to MINT3.
These subgroups all tend to have higher poverty rates than married, non-Hispanic Whites, and
college graduates. As described in chapter 2, historic earnings are slightly lower in MINT4
than in MINT3.
Differences in economic assumptions contribute to the higher poverty rates in MINT4
compared to MINT3. Projected poverty rates are very sensitive to both historic and projected
economic conditions (Butrica, Smith, and Toder 2002). Initial Social Security benefits are
indexed to wage growth and the poverty thresholds are indexed to price growth. Poverty rates
will fall faster when wages grow faster than prices. MINT3 used economic assumptions of
price and wage growth from the 2002 Trustees. MINT4 use the 2004 Trustees assumptions.
The MINT4 assumptions had cumulative real wages grow more slowly after 2004 than the
MINT3 assumptions, especially between 2001 and 2010. The slower real wage growth in
MINT4 contributes to the higher poverty rates in MINT4 compared to MINT3.
IV-30
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 4 APPENDIX TABLES
Table A4-1a. Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and Cohort
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
27
22
High School Graduate
56
58
College Graduate
17
20
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
82
78
African-American
9
10
Hispanic
6
7
Other
3
4
By Gender
Female
53
53
Male
47
47
By Marital Status
Never Married
5
5
Married
76
74
Widowed
9
8
Divorced
10
13
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
15
60
24
12
58
30
11
60
29
10
63
27
11
62
27
11
59
30
14
60
27
79
9
8
5
77
10
8
6
75
11
8
6
73
11
10
7
69
11
13
7
64
12
15
9
73
10
10
6
52
48
52
48
51
49
53
47
52
48
52
48
52
48
5
72
8
15
6
71
7
17
7
69
7
17
8
69
7
16
8
70
7
15
11
66
7
16
7
70
7
15
Table A4-1b. Percent of Individuals at Age 67, by Individual Characteristics and Cohort
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
27
21
High School Graduate
56
59
College Graduate
17
20
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
81
78
African-American
9
10
Hispanic
6
8
Other
4
4
By Gender
Female
54
54
Male
46
46
By Marital Status
Never Married
5
4
Married
71
70
Widowed
13
13
Divorced
11
13
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
15
61
25
12
58
30
11
60
30
10
63
27
11
62
27
11
59
29
13
60
27
79
8
8
5
77
10
8
6
75
11
8
6
73
11
10
7
69
11
13
7
64
11
15
9
73
10
10
6
54
46
54
46
53
47
54
46
53
47
53
47
54
46
5
69
11
15
5
67
11
17
7
65
11
17
8
65
11
17
8
66
11
15
10
62
10
17
7
66
11
16
IV-31
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-2a. Percentage of Individuals Projected to be in Fair or Poor Health, by
Cohort, Age, and Gender
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
N/A
N/A
N/A
33.8
33.7
N/A
N/A
27.7
29.3
32.6
N/A
25.6
29.0
31.7
34.7
5.7
20.1
24.5
27.5
29.0
5.9
19.9
24.2
27.3
31.3
6.5
21.3
23.4
27.9
28.8
6.2
22.4
25.9
27.5
30.8
4.5
22.8
24.6
27.6
31.3
5.8
21.7
25.2
28.6
31.1
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.7
6.8
55
N/A
N/A
16.4
16.5
15.6
60
N/A
19.8
20.4
19.1
19.3
62
23.0
26.2
21.7
20.4
22.4
67
25.5
25.1
21.5
23.4
23.7
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
N/A are projections not available from the MINT4 data system.
6.7
14.8
19.6
20.8
22.3
6.3
17.9
19.6
21.6
25.7
6.0
16.9
21.7
24.0
23.7
6.6
16.3
19.9
22.3
23.8
Female
Age
50
55
60
62
67
Male
IV-32
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-2b. Percent of Individuals Drawing Disability Benefits at Age 62, by Cohort,
Race, and Gender
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
9.20
2.40
1.30
11.20
2.40
1.10
10.20
0.80
0.50
10.50
1.00
0.50
11.00
0.70
0.30
11.60
1.00
0.10
11.60
0.80
0.80
9.80
0.50
0.30
10.80
1.10
0.40
Female
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
7.10
3.10
1.40
9.00
3.50
0.90
8.50
1.00
0.70
8.90
0.90
0.50
10.10
0.90
0.20
10.50
1.40
0.00
10.10
0.90
0.10
9.00
0.70
0.00
9.40
1.30
0.40
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
11.60
1.50
1.10
13.60
1.30
1.20
12.00
0.60
0.30
12.30
1.00
0.40
12.10
0.40
0.50
12.90
0.00
0.20
13.20
0.80
0.20
10.60
0.40
0.70
12.30
0.80
0.50
White Non-Hispanic
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
8.70
1.70
0.70
11.20
1.50
0.80
10.00
0.50
0.40
9.40
0.50
0.30
10.80
0.60
0.20
10.60
0.60
0.10
10.20
0.60
0.00
7.80
0.20
0.10
9.90
0.70
0.30
African-American
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
18.20
5.70
5.30
17.20
6.90
1.20
19.10
1.70
1.00
19.80
2.70
1.30
16.50
0.60
0.60
19.40
2.90
0.20
18.30
2.30
0.00
20.00
0.60
1.30
18.70
2.40
1.00
Hispanic
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
6.10
1.60
3.40
6.90
5.60
3.10
6.10
2.50
1.40
10.30
2.00
0.60
10.20
1.80
0.70
11.70
1.70
0.00
13.40
0.50
0.00
10.10
1.40
0.40
10.40
1.70
0.70
All
Male
Other
DI Only
1.70
4.10
4.40
8.30
5.10
9.60
10.50
9.50
7.90
SSI Only
11.40
2.70
0.40
0.60
0.70
1.60
1.60
1.10
1.80
Concurrent DI & SSI
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.60
1.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.40
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
NOTE: Retirement defined as either working 20 hours per week or less or having experienced a 50% earnings
drop; persons not in the labor force (for reasons other than disability) at age 50 are considered retired by 55.
Table includes all never-disabled, non-institutionalized survivors.
IV-33
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-3a. Projections of Age at Retirement, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
All Workers
% Retired at 55
% Retired at 60
% Retired at 62
% Retired at 65
% Retired at 67
% Retired at 70
31.8
47.0
57.4
74.7
84.9
100.0
36.6
50.9
61.1
79.0
87.0
100.0
40.6
60.4
70.3
83.9
89.2
100.0
44.5
63.0
71.5
83.2
88.5
100.0
37.8
57.6
66.4
79.4
85.6
100.0
34.9
55.6
64.1
78.7
84.7
100.0
34.8
54.5
63.9
77.1
83.6
100.0
34.3
54.9
63.6
78.0
85.2
100.0
37.0
56.1
65.2
79.3
85.9
100.0
Female
% Retired at 55
% Retired at 60
% Retired at 62
% Retired at 65
% Retired at 67
% Retired at 70
43.1
56.9
63.4
79.6
88.0
100.0
44.8
57.5
67.1
82.6
89.8
100.0
46.7
67.7
77.1
86.3
91.2
100.0
51.2
69.7
76.6
85.6
90.1
100.0
46.1
64.9
71.9
81.6
87.4
100.0
42.0
61.4
68.1
79.7
85.7
100.0
41.2
59.9
66.9
77.6
85.1
100.0
40.6
60.6
66.9
78.6
85.8
100.0
44.3
62.6
69.9
81.2
87.5
100.0
Male
% Retired at 55
18.1
26.7
33.7
36.8
28.7
26.5
27.8
27.3
28.7
% Retired at 60
34.8
43.1
52.1
55.4
49.6
48.9
48.5
48.5
48.6
% Retired at 62
50.2
53.8
62.5
65.6
60.3
59.4
60.6
59.8
59.8
% Retired at 65
68.8
74.6
81.1
80.5
76.9
77.5
76.5
77.4
77.1
% Retired at 67
81.1
83.7
86.9
86.6
83.6
83.6
82.1
84.5
84.0
% Retired at 70
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
NOTE: Retirement defined as either working 20 hours per week or less or having experienced a 50% earnings
drop; persons not in the labor force (for reasons other than disability) at age 50 are considered retired by 55.
Table includes all never-disabled, non-institutionalized survivors.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-34
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-3b. Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort and
Gender
Year of Birth
All Workers
Takeup at ages 60-62
Takeup at age 63
Takeup at age 64
Takeup at age 65
Takeup at age 66
Takeup at age 67
Takeup at ages 68 and
over
Male
Takeup at ages 60-62
Takeup at age 63
Takeup at age 64
Takeup at age 65
Takeup at age 66
Takeup at age 67
Takeup at ages 68 and
over
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
57.0
6.8
13.8
13.5
1.4
0.9
54.6
9.1
15.6
14.1
1.7
1.3
59.3
9.3
14.3
9.2
2.7
1.7
61.5
8.8
13.3
7.0
3.8
2.3
57.0
10.5
14.4
7.7
3.8
2.7
56.6
9.6
14.7
9.2
3.8
2.5
56.4
9.4
15.2
8.1
3.0
3.4
56.6
9.4
15.5
8.3
2.9
3.1
57.4
9.3
14.6
9.1
3.1
2.4
6.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.9
3.6
4.6
4.1
4.1
52.7
6.5
13.9
18.0
2.3
1.1
51.0
8.7
18.6
17.0
1.5
0.9
53.0
10.4
16.7
10.9
3.5
1.9
54.6
9.8
16.3
7.7
5.7
3.0
50.5
10.5
17.1
8.7
5.4
3.6
50.4
10.6
16.8
10.7
5.1
2.8
51.6
10.2
17.6
8.7
3.3
4.1
51.1
11.0
17.1
9.0
3.4
3.8
51.7
10.0
16.9
10.5
4.0
2.9
5.5
2.3
3.5
2.8
4.2
3.6
4.5
4.5
3.9
61.5
8.0
14.1
7.6
2.5
2.6
62.4
8.7
12.7
7.8
2.2
2.0
3.7
4.2
Female
Takeup at ages 60-62
60.6
57.6
64.8
67.6
63.2
61.9
60.7
Takeup at age 63
7.1
9.5
8.4
7.9
10.6
8.8
8.6
Takeup at age 64
13.7
13.1
12.2
10.7
11.8
12.9
12.9
Takeup at age 65
9.8
11.6
7.6
6.3
6.7
7.9
7.5
Takeup at age 66
0.7
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.7
Takeup at age 67
0.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.2
2.8
Takeup at ages 68 and
over
7.4
4.7
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.7
4.7
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
Note: Table includes all never-disabled individuals who take up Social Security by 2039.
IV-35
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-3c. Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort and AIME
Quintile
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
Bottom AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
54.0
59.5
71.0
71.7
66.7
65.0
63.3
Takeup at age 63
10.3
6.8
5.8
4.4
7.6
6.0
7.0
Takeup at age 64
9.3
9.8
8.0
8.5
9.7
10.5
11.9
Takeup at age 65
7.2
7.3
5.2
5.1
5.4
6.5
5.9
Takeup at age 66
2.0
3.4
0.8
0.8
1.4
1.8
1.6
Takeup at age 67
2.0
2.5
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.7
0.7
Takeup at ages 68 and over
15.2
10.8
8.3
8.5
8.4
8.4
9.7
Second AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
68.6
61.4
72.4
74.8
66.7
66.0
65.7
Takeup at age 63
4.0
8.4
7.5
8.3
11.4
8.9
10.6
Takeup at age 64
13.2
13.7
12.5
9.8
11.7
13.3
12.6
Takeup at age 65
8.9
10.4
4.0
4.0
5.4
6.9
6.1
Takeup at age 66
0.5
2.0
1.3
0.8
0.6
1.2
2.1
Takeup at age 67
0.4
1.8
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
0.8
Takeup at ages 68 and over
4.5
2.3
1.3
1.1
3.0
2.4
2.1
Third AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
56.6
50.7
57.7
66.8
59.5
58.7
57.6
Takeup at age 63
7.5
11.2
10.9
7.7
12.0
13.6
12.7
Takeup at age 64
17.1
18.3
15.8
11.0
13.9
13.8
13.9
Takeup at age 65
12.3
14.3
9.6
7.6
8.1
7.9
9.2
Takeup at age 66
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.9
2.6
1.7
2.2
Takeup at age 67
0.9
1.0
2.3
2.4
1.7
2.1
1.8
Takeup at ages 68 and over
4.9
3.3
2.6
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.7
Fourth AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
56.7
56.4
53.6
52.2
49.4
52.3
53.2
6.3
9.7
12.6
11.1
12.5
9.9
8.0
Takeup at age 63
Takeup at age 64
13.5
18.5
15.0
18.1
18.0
16.8
17.3
Takeup at age 65
16.8
12.8
11.6
8.7
9.3
11.6
9.0
Takeup at age 66
1.5
1.3
3.7
5.2
4.7
4.4
3.8
Takeup at age 67
0.5
0.5
1.1
2.9
2.7
2.8
4.5
Takeup at ages 68 and over
4.7
0.8
2.3
1.7
3.3
2.2
4.2
Top AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
48.7
45.2
42.1
42.7
42.7
40.3
41.8
Takeup at age 63
6.2
9.4
10.0
12.4
9.1
9.7
8.5
Takeup at age 64
16.2
17.8
20.4
18.8
18.6
19.2
20.2
Takeup at age 65
22.7
25.6
15.2
9.2
10.5
13.1
10.4
Takeup at age 66
2.4
0.5
6.3
10.1
9.7
9.9
5.4
Takeup at age 67
0.6
0.6
3.3
3.9
6.9
4.7
9.3
Takeup at ages 68 and over
3.2
0.9
2.7
2.8
2.5
3.0
4.5
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
Notes: Table includes all never-disabled individuals who take up Social Security by 2039.
AIME quintiles are defined separately for each cohort
IV-36
1966-70
All
64.0
7.2
12.2
5.7
1.7
0.9
8.2
65.0
6.7
10.2
6.0
1.6
1.2
9.3
64.5
11.3
12.3
6.0
2.2
0.8
3.0
67.4
9.3
12.3
6.2
1.4
1.1
2.4
56.3
9.7
17.8
8.3
2.5
2.9
2.5
58.5
10.9
14.9
9.2
1.9
2.0
2.7
55.4
7.7
17.3
9.4
3.3
4.1
2.8
53.3
9.8
17.0
10.6
3.8
2.7
2.8
42.2
11.4
18.1
12.1
5.1
7.2
4.0
42.7
9.8
18.9
13.6
6.8
5.2
3.1
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-4a. Projections of Percentage of Non-Disabled Individuals, Age 62 and
Over, with Positive Earnings, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
62.3
46.6
34.5
23.4
64.5
45.2
32.7
22.3
64.2
48.8
36.4
23.1
69.5
49.6
35.3
23.8
60.5
44.6
32.7
23.7
60.1
41.4
30.5
21.0
52.3
43.8
33.6
23.4
52.9
42.4
32.1
22.3
50.1
45.3
35.2
23.0
54.1
45.7
34.2
23.7
53.9
42.5
32.1
23.7
52.1
39.5
30.2
21.0
75.3
71.3
55.2
80.2
72.4
47.1
79.0
75.3
63.0
86.0
81.7
59.9
71.1
66.4
46.4
73.5
61.7
36.5
All
At age 62
60.7
62.3
62.4
62.1
67.3
67.7
67.2
At age 65
45.4
41.1
42.6
42.7
46.3
47.7
46.2
At age 67
34.2
30.1
29.5
31.0
34.0
33.9
32.8
At age 70
23.3
19.1
20.5
21.5
22.0
23.9
23.1
Male
At age 62
73.5
70.9
67.6
66.2
73.1
72.3
69.6
At age 65
55.9
46.2
46.9
46.3
51.9
51.6
49.4
At age 67
43.0
31.7
33.0
32.7
37.3
35.6
33.6
At age 70
29.9
20.3
24.0
22.4
23.0
25.0
23.8
Female
At age 62
50.1
55.1
57.8
58.5
61.9
63.8
65.0
At age 65
36.8
36.8
38.9
39.6
41.0
44.3
43.4
At age 67
27.0
28.7
26.5
29.4
30.9
32.5
32.2
At age 70
17.8
18.1
17.5
20.8
21.0
23.0
22.4
All Beneficiaries
At age 62
51.0
54.5
51.4
49.8
52.9
55.0
55.5
At age 65
45.1
41.9
40.2
39.1
42.3
44.3
42.1
At age 67
34.5
30.4
29.2
30.3
33.2
33.2
31.7
At age 70
23.3
19.0
20.4
21.5
21.9
23.9
23.0
All Male Beneficiaries
At age 62
64.0
63.4
52.6
48.9
55.1
54.6
52.8
At age 65
55.1
46.8
43.9
40.7
46.3
47.2
44.1
At age 67
42.9
31.7
32.0
31.8
36.1
34.5
32.2
At age 70
30.0
20.2
23.8
22.3
22.9
24.9
23.7
All Female Beneficiaries
At age 62
41.7
47.9
50.6
50.5
51.3
55.3
57.5
At age 65
36.9
37.6
37.0
37.7
38.8
41.9
40.2
At age 67
27.5
29.3
26.7
29.1
30.6
32.0
31.3
At age 70
17.8
18.1
17.5
20.8
21.0
23.0
22.4
All Non-Beneficiaries
At age 62
73.5
71.6
78.4
81.7
86.5
84.3
82.3
At age 65
48.4
29.7
71.0
78.0
80.2
78.6
79.8
At age 67
29.8
21.0
39.2
49.8
52.8
53.2
55.5
All Male Non-Beneficiaries
At age 62
84.2
78.7
84.5
87.0
91.5
90.2
87.5
At age 65
64.0
33.9
77.2
88.7
88.4
85.9
88.3
At age 67
44.9
29.9
59.2
65.8
65.8
63.3
62.5
All Female Non-Beneficiaries
At age 62
63.0
64.8
71.1
75.2
80.2
77.8
76.5
At age 65
35.5
27.7
64.0
63.7
67.0
70.2
70.7
At age 67
20.6
17.3
21.6
39.2
38.5
44.9
49.4
Note: The 1970 cohort turns age 70 in 2040 and are considered nonworkers at age 70.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-37
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-4b. Percentage of Retirees With Positive Earnings Before Age of Benefit
Entitlement, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
At age 54 and 55
At age 56 and 57
At age 58 and 59
At age 60 and 61
24.0
37.7
35.7
33.1
36.6
39.9
40.0
37.8
37.6
53.3
53.4
54.9
68.2
63.2
55.3
49.7
73.2
62.9
53.5
51.0
74.5
61.5
57.3
54.6
71.0
62.3
55.9
53.6
71.1
57.4
53.2
52.7
66.2
58.7
53.2
50.7
Male
At age 54 and 55
At age 56 and 57
At age 58 and 59
At age 60 and 61
35.4
51.7
48.9
47.4
47.0
50.9
48.8
46.6
53.4
54.6
54.3
52.4
61.8
59.8
50.0
46.6
74.3
64.9
56.3
55.6
69.2
60.4
58.1
52.8
68.5
60.6
53.9
50.1
66.6
57.1
51.5
49.0
65.4
59.4
53.7
50.7
66.6
57.1
51.5
49.0
65.4
59.4
53.7
50.7
All
Female
At age 54 and 55
35.4
47.0
53.4
61.8
74.3
69.2
68.5
At age 56 and 57
51.7
50.9
54.6
59.8
64.9
60.4
60.6
At age 58 and 59
48.9
48.8
54.3
50.0
56.3
58.1
53.9
At age 60 and 61
47.4
46.6
52.4
46.6
55.6
52.8
50.1
Note: Retirees are never-disabled individuals with positive earnings at age 50 or older.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-38
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-4c. Percent of Individuals Age 62 with Positive Earnings, by Cohort, Gender, and
Social Security Receipt
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
19.8
0.21
21.9
0.41
22.3
0.33
18.1
0.35
17.7
0.42
17.7
0.24
19.7
0.33
51.2
0.51
48.8
0.54
52.1
0.55
54.3
0.52
54.7
0.53
51.9
0.52
52.3
0.53
74.2
1.87
77.8
1.74
81.9
1.70
80.5
1.61
79.2
1.77
73.4
1.47
76.8
1.65
16.7
0.17
21.6
0.43
19.5
0.20
18.1
0.25
12.6
0.34
21.7
0.21
18.6
0.27
50.9
0.41
49.6
0.43
50.5
0.44
54.3
0.47
56.6
0.47
53.6
0.43
51.6
0.44
64.9
1.18
70.9
1.23
74.1
1.14
73.0
1.18
73.7
1.11
68.3
1.08
69.4
1.11
22.5
0.24
22.1
0.40
24.7
0.42
18.2
0.43
22.0
0.45
14.1
0.27
20.6
0.38
51.6
0.65
47.8
0.70
54.1
0.68
54.2
0.59
52.3
0.63
49.7
0.66
53.3
0.65
82.5
2.36
83.9
2.11
88.6
2.11
87.5
1.95
84.5
2.33
78.1
1.80
83.6
2.07
All
DI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
22.6
19.3
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.33
0.31
OASI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
50.3
54.4
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.49
0.58
Non-Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
70.5
68.6
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
1.57
1.38
Females
DI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
21.7
19.7
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.20
0.29
OASI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
41.6
48.5
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.37
0.43
Non-Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
59.1
60.9
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.87
0.95
Males
DI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
23.3
18.9
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.42
0.32
OASI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
62.4
62.3
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.60
0.74
Non-Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
81.9
76.7
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
2.09
1.74
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-39
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-5a. Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62,
by Cohort and Gender
Any
Coverage
DB or
DC
Coverage
DB
Coverage
DC
Coverage
IRA
Coverage
Keogh
Coverage
1931-35
Female
Male
60.5%
51.5%
70.9%
47.2%
36.1%
59.9%
44.1%
33.3%
56.4%
6.0%
5.0%
7.1%
27.7%
26.1%
29.6%
1.1%
0.7%
1.5%
1936-40
Female
Male
59.4%
51.7%
70.9%
47.2%
37.9%
59.9%
39.9%
30.4%
56.4%
13.7%
11.8%
7.1%
28.0%
26.3%
29.6%
1.5%
1.2%
1.5%
1941-45
Female
Male
58.7%
52.4%
65.7%
47.1%
38.8%
56.0%
38.0%
29.8%
47.0%
19.6%
16.1%
23.4%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
1.1%
0.8%
1.4%
1946-50
Female
Male
59.0%
54.9%
63.6%
49.0%
42.8%
55.9%
37.2%
31.8%
43.2%
22.9%
20.4%
25.6%
23.1%
23.7%
22.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1951-55
Female
Male
58.4%
53.7%
63.3%
49.2%
44.0%
54.7%
35.5%
30.6%
40.7%
26.4%
23.1%
29.9%
20.3%
19.0%
21.6%
0.9%
0.7%
1.2%
1956-60
Female
Male
57.7%
53.4%
62.5%
50.8%
46.1%
55.9%
33.3%
30.8%
36.0%
31.8%
27.7%
36.3%
15.7%
14.8%
16.6%
0.7%
0.5%
1.0%
1961-65
Female
Male
57.4%
53.0%
62.2%
52.4%
47.9%
57.1%
32.9%
28.6%
37.5%
36.0%
32.3%
39.9%
11.9%
11.1%
12.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.6%
1966-70
Female
Male
56.7%
51.8%
62.0%
53.2%
48.0%
58.8%
31.6%
27.5%
36.1%
39.3%
34.1%
44.9%
8.1%
8.0%
8.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
58.2%
50.0%
35.6%
53.0%
43.8%
30.1%
Female
64.0%
56.8%
41.6%
Male
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
27.0%
23.6%
30.7%
18.5%
17.9%
19.2%
0.8%
0.7%
1.1%
Year of Birth and
Gender
All
IV-40
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-5b. Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62, by
Cohort and AIME Quintile
Year of
Birth
1931-35
Any
Coverage
DB or
DC
Coverage
DB
Coverage
DC
Coverage
IRA
Coverage
Keogh
Coverage
1
2
3
4
5
27.1%
49.0%
66.1%
76.1%
85.6%
16.4%
31.9%
52.7%
65.7%
70.6%
15.3%
29.2%
50.0%
61.2%
66.1%
1.7%
4.2%
5.9%
7.6%
10.6%
14.0%
23.8%
24.5%
28.8%
48.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.3%
1.4%
2.9%
1
2
3
4
5
23.7%
46.8%
66.6%
75.7%
84.6%
13.5%
32.2%
55.1%
64.6%
70.9%
12.4%
24.8%
44.7%
55.7%
62.2%
1.2%
9.6%
17.0%
17.4%
23.4%
12.5%
21.0%
27.9%
31.8%
47.0%
0.2%
0.7%
1.1%
1.2%
4.4%
1
2
3
4
5
23.9%
46.4%
62.0%
76.8%
84.8%
11.9%
34.4%
51.2%
65.4%
72.7%
9.0%
27.4%
40.9%
52.2%
60.6%
4.0%
11.4%
17.7%
29.5%
35.4%
13.0%
19.4%
24.3%
30.6%
42.7%
0.4%
0.7%
1.2%
1.3%
1.8%
1
2
3
4
5
20.2%
45.7%
62.5%
77.7%
86.5%
11.1%
34.2%
52.1%
68.9%
76.4%
8.0%
24.5%
38.9%
53.9%
58.9%
3.9%
14.2%
23.4%
31.8%
39.8%
10.4%
17.7%
20.6%
26.8%
39.3%
0.2%
0.7%
1.4%
1.2%
3.2%
1
2
3
4
5
20.3%
45.4%
64.2%
77.2%
86.2%
14.3%
35.0%
55.6%
67.6%
74.9%
8.6%
25.2%
40.1%
51.4%
53.2%
7.6%
15.5%
25.9%
34.6%
49.1%
6.8%
15.4%
19.5%
24.8%
35.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.8%
1.9%
2.0%
1
2
3
4
5
25.1%
42.7%
58.4%
77.4%
85.3%
21.2%
33.8%
51.7%
69.0%
78.3%
11.6%
21.3%
32.0%
48.2%
53.3%
13.1%
18.6%
29.7%
42.9%
54.6%
4.8%
12.0%
13.8%
20.6%
27.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1
2
3
4
5
29.3%
45.9%
59.1%
69.3%
84.6%
25.8%
41.1%
53.4%
64.6%
77.9%
14.0%
25.2%
33.4%
40.7%
51.9%
17.0%
26.4%
34.8%
44.5%
58.0%
5.0%
8.6%
10.4%
13.3%
22.4%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.9%
0.5%
AIME
Quintile
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
IV-41
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
1966-70
30.0%
42.3%
55.2%
62.8%
75.7%
14.2%
23.8%
32.9%
38.3%
48.8%
21.5%
29.9%
40.5%
47.6%
56.9%
3.4%
4.6%
6.7%
10.1%
16.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
1.1%
25.5%
19.0%
1
45.6%
36.2%
2
61.5%
53.4%
3
74.3%
66.2%
4
84.7%
75.4%
5
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4.
11.5%
24.8%
37.7%
48.7%
55.5%
10.3%
17.9%
26.8%
35.2%
45.0%
7.8%
14.0%
16.9%
21.8%
32.3%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
1.2%
2.0%
1
2
3
4
5
32.5%
45.5%
58.6%
66.8%
80.2%
All
IV-42
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-6a. Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
Defined Contribution Plan
Plus IRA Wealth at Age
50
55
60
62
67
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.52
0.59
N/A
N/A
0.90
0.88
0.91
N/A
0.98
1.15
1.17
1.19
0.86
1.09
1.31
1.35
1.36
0.90
1.13
1.38
1.44
1.50
0.95
1.24
1.50
1.57
1.61
0.93
1.20
1.50
1.59
1.62
0.86
1.13
1.37
1.43
1.44
0.90
1.15
1.36
1.33
1.36
Non-Pension Financial
Wealth at Age
50
55
60
62
67
N/A
N/A
N/A
9.54
14.28
N/A
N/A
6.14
5.24
5.91
N/A
4.62
5.96
6.28
6.48
4.48
4.88
6.01
6.33
6.39
6.39
7.97
9.78
10.21
10.52
6.44
8.11
9.93
10.28
10.43
6.78
8.42
10.05
10.69
10.94
8.92
9.85
11.17
11.58
11.58
6.80
7.67
8.90
9.15
9.71
5.35
5.97
7.32
7.68
7.75
7.29
9.10
11.16
11.65
12.01
7.39
9.35
11.43
11.85
12.04
7.71
9.62
11.55
12.28
12.57
9.78
10.98
12.53
13.00
13.02
7.71
8.82
10.26
10.48
11.07
Total Financial Wealth
(Excluding Defined Benefit
Plans) at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
55
N/A
N/A
5.60
60
N/A
7.04
7.11
62
10.05
6.12
7.45
67
14.87
6.82
7.67
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4 projections.
IV-43
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-6b. Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
Defined Contribution Plan
Plus IRA Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.77
0.79
0.85
0.81
0.71
55
N/A
N/A
0.86
0.96
0.99
1.10
1.05
0.96
60
N/A
0.83
1.01
1.13
1.19
1.30
1.31
1.13
62
0.40
0.79
1.02
1.17
1.23
1.35
1.37
1.19
67
0.52
0.81
1.04
1.14
1.27
1.38
1.40
1.22
0.79
1.00
1.17
1.14
1.17
Non-Pension Financial
Wealth at Age
50
N/A
55
N/A
60
N/A
62
2.06
67
2.20
1.87
2.30
2.82
2.86
2.88
N/A
N/A
2.38
2.35
2.40
N/A
1.82
2.40
2.53
2.60
1.52
1.91
2.41
2.53
2.53
1.89
2.52
3.07
3.21
3.20
2.02
2.54
3.27
3.38
3.38
1.95
2.44
2.97
3.10
3.17
1.79
2.20
2.73
2.85
2.78
All
Total Financial Wealth
(Excluding Defined Benefit
Plans) at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.29
2.68
2.87
2.76
2.50
2.66
55
N/A
N/A
2.68
2.87
3.51
3.63
3.49
3.16
3.30
60
N/A
3.20
3.41
3.55
4.26
4.57
4.28
3.86
4.00
62
2.46
3.14
3.55
3.70
4.44
4.73
4.47
4.05
4.00
67
2.72
3.22
3.64
3.66
4.47
4.76
4.56
4.00
4.04
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4 projections.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4
IV-44
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-6c. Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
ALL INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
75%
55
N/A
N/A
77%
78%
60
N/A
78%
79%
80%
62
76%
74%
73%
74%
67
77%
73%
73%
74%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.33
55
N/A
N/A
1.50
1.52
60
N/A
1.59
1.79
1.79
62
1.51
1.59
1.78
1.77
67
1.75
1.62
1.77
1.81
MARRIED INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
84%
55
N/A
N/A
85%
86%
60
N/A
86%
87%
88%
62
85%
80%
78%
79%
67
85%
79%
77%
78%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.36
55
N/A
N/A
1.50
1.58
60
N/A
1.56
1.73
1.78
62
1.53
1.59
1.68
1.73
67
1.82
1.59
1.69
1.73
SINGLE INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
49%
55
N/A
N/A
53%
54%
60
N/A
54%
58%
61%
62
51%
56%
59%
62%
67
57%
61%
64%
67%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.26
55
N/A
N/A
1.52
1.38
60
N/A
1.68
1.95
1.84
62
1.46
1.61
2.03
1.88
67
1.58
1.70
1.95
1.97
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4 projections.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4
IV-45
All
75%
78%
82%
76%
75%
74%
80%
81%
75%
75%
77%
79%
79%
72%
73%
76%
80%
82%
75%
75%
76%
79%
81%
74%
75%
1.40
1.59
1.91
1.90
1.94
1.45
1.75
1.99
1.98
1.98
1.30
1.48
1.72
1.73
1.76
1.24
1.47
1.71
1.69
1.68
1.35
1.56
1.81
1.77
1.81
85%
86%
90%
81%
79%
82%
88%
88%
78%
78%
87%
87%
86%
77%
76%
86%
87%
89%
80%
79%
85%
87%
88%
79%
78%
1.42
1.61
1.89
1.86
1.90
1.31
1.56
1.71
1.68
1.64
1.22
1.45
1.63
1.59
1.59
1.12
1.31
1.50
1.47
1.42
1.28
1.50
1.70
1.65
1.67
49%
56%
63%
64%
68%
53%
60%
65%
66%
70%
53%
57%
63%
63%
67%
53%
61%
66%
66%
70%
51%
58%
63%
63%
67%
1.33
1.54
1.94
1.98
2.03
1.82
2.21
2.64
2.65
2.61
1.53
1.55
1.94
2.03
2.07
1.54
1.82
2.12
2.10
2.11
1.52
1.71
2.08
2.05
2.08
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-6d. Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
ALL INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive Housing
Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
74%
74%
73%
77%
76%
55
N/A
N/A
76%
77%
77%
79%
78%
79%
60
N/A
77%
78%
80%
81%
81%
79%
81%
62
76%
73%
72%
74%
75%
74%
72%
75%
67
76%
72%
72%
74%
75%
75%
72%
75%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.24
1.30
1.32
1.19
1.09
55
N/A
N/A
1.35
1.43
1.48
1.60
1.35
1.31
60
N/A
1.49
1.66
1.68
1.75
1.75
1.55
1.52
62
1.42
1.48
1.64
1.66
1.74
1.74
1.54
1.50
67
1.64
1.50
1.64
1.66
1.77
1.74
1.57
1.49
MARRIED INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive Housing
Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.84
0.84
0.81
0.86
0.85
55
N/A
N/A
0.84
0.86
0.86
0.87
0.86
0.87
60
N/A
0.86
0.86
0.87
0.90
0.88
0.86
0.89
62
0.84
0.80
0.77
0.79
0.80
0.78
0.76
0.79
67
0.85
0.78
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.78
0.75
0.79
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.26
1.33
1.19
1.10
1.05
55
N/A
N/A
1.39
1.50
1.51
1.42
1.31
1.22
60
N/A
1.45
1.62
1.69
1.76
1.56
1.46
1.39
62
1.44
1.47
1.56
1.63
1.73
1.52
1.43
1.37
67
1.69
1.47
1.58
1.62
1.75
1.50
1.43
1.31
SINGLE INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive Housing
Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
47%
48%
51%
51%
51%
55
N/A
N/A
51%
53%
56%
59%
56%
60%
60
N/A
53%
57%
61%
63%
64%
62%
65%
62
50%
55%
58%
62%
63%
66%
62%
65%
67
57%
59%
63%
67%
67%
69%
66%
69%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.17
1.21
1.64
1.44
1.21
55
N/A
N/A
1.25
1.26
1.40
2.03
1.46
1.53
60
N/A
1.61
1.78
1.64
1.72
2.20
1.75
1.79
62
1.36
1.48
1.84
1.71
1.76
2.21
1.78
1.76
67
1.54
1.57
1.78
1.75
1.81
2.18
1.83
1.80
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4 projections.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-46
All
75%
78%
80%
74%
74%
1.23
1.43
1.64
1.61
1.63
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.79
0.78
1.18
1.39
1.57
1.52
1.53
50%
57%
62%
62%
66%
1.36
1.54
1.82
1.80
1.83
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-7. Distribution of Per Capita Assets at Age 62 by Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Mean
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
95th
95th
Percentile/
20th
50th
80th
90th
95th
Percentile/ 80th
Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile Mean
Percentile
Per Capita DC Account Balance
0.00
0.65
1.73
3.28
0.00
1.19
3.14
4.88
0.00
1.53
3.94
6.42
0.01
1.85
4.28
6.95
0.06
2.08
4.61
7.70
0.12
2.08
4.64
7.94
0.18
2.10
4.49
7.73
0.20
2.06
4.19
6.42
Per Capita Non-Pension Assets
9.54
0.03
0.76
4.56
8.79
14.73
1931-35
5.24
0.04
0.88
5.21
10.14
17.59
1936-40
6.28
0.04
0.98
5.58
11.20
19.90
1941-45
6.33
0.05
0.99
5.25
10.67
20.08
1946-50
10.21
0.16
1.18
6.33
14.56
31.41
1951-55
10.28
0.21
1.26
6.28
15.65
32.87
1956-60
10.69
0.20
1.21
5.73
13.80
33.12
1961-65
11.58
0.20
1.15
5.16
11.79
30.78
1966-70
Per Capita Financial Assets
10.05
0.04
1.07
5.65
9.96
16.58
1931-35
6.12
0.07
1.43
7.10
12.46
19.81
1936-40
7.45
0.12
1.61
8.01
14.40
23.58
1941-45
7.68
0.16
1.67
7.85
14.71
24.12
1946-50
11.65
0.30
2.00
9.45
18.33
34.84
1951-55
11.85
0.41
2.19
9.47
19.51
37.59
1956-60
12.28
0.41
2.20
8.61
18.37
37.42
1961-65
13.00
0.42
2.22
7.78
15.53
34.97
1966-70
Per Capita Housing Wealth
1.51
0.00
1.01
2.42
3.55
5.04
1931-35
1.59
0.01
1.13
2.63
3.70
5.33
1936-40
1.78
0.06
1.13
2.68
4.02
5.90
1941-45
1.77
0.14
1.00
2.71
4.08
6.22
1946-50
1.90
0.18
0.93
2.79
4.48
6.81
1951-55
1.98
0.16
0.85
2.54
4.44
6.83
1956-60
1.73
0.12
0.73
2.28
3.93
6.45
1961-65
1.69
0.14
0.75
2.36
3.94
6.41
1966-70
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
0.52
0.88
1.17
1.35
1.44
1.57
1.59
1.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
IV-47
6.37
5.55
5.48
5.15
5.34
5.06
4.87
4.50
5.07
4.09
4.21
3.76
3.70
3.81
3.68
3.12
1.54
3.36
3.17
3.17
3.08
3.20
3.10
2.66
3.23
3.37
3.57
3.82
4.97
5.24
5.78
5.96
1.65
3.24
3.17
3.14
2.99
3.17
3.05
2.69
2.94
2.79
2.94
3.07
3.69
3.97
4.35
4.49
3.33
3.35
3.31
3.50
3.59
3.45
3.74
3.80
2.08
2.03
2.20
2.29
2.44
2.69
2.83
2.72
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-8a. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
All
0.99
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.54
0.04
0.99
0.15
0.16
0.14
0.50
0.04
1.09
0.16
0.18
0.11
0.60
0.05
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.09
0.60
0.05
1.11
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.11
0.15
0.23
0.07
0.61
0.05
1.06
0.14
0.22
0.06
0.58
0.05
0.98
0.14
0.19
0.05
0.55
0.05
1.06
0.15
0.20
0.08
0.58
0.05
1.08
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.13
0.12
0.65
0.48
0.17
0.04
1.06
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.16
0.14
0.59
0.43
0.16
0.04
1.20
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.19
0.11
0.72
0.54
0.18
0.05
1.14
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.19
0.09
0.68
0.50
0.18
0.05
1.21
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.24
0.07
0.72
0.54
0.18
0.05
1.16
0.13
0.11
0.03
0.24
0.07
0.68
0.50
0.18
0.05
1.12
0.13
0.10
0.02
0.23
0.07
0.65
0.48
0.18
0.04
1.08
0.12
0.10
0.02
0.21
0.05
0.65
0.45
0.20
0.04
1.14
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.21
0.08
0.67
0.49
0.18
0.05
Male
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Own Benefit
Spouse Benefit
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Own Earnings
Spouse Earnings
Imputed Rental Income
Female
Total Income
0.90
0.93
0.98
1.01
1.02
1.06
0.99
0.88
0.98
Social Security Benefits
0.18
0.16
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.17
Own Benefit
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
Spouse Benefit
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.07
Financial Income
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.23
0.21
0.18
0.19
DB Pension Income
0.11
0.13
0.11
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.08
Earned Income
0.43
0.42
0.48
0.52
0.53
0.55
0.52
0.45
0.50
Own Earnings
0.19
0.24
0.28
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.32
0.29
0.29
Spouse Earnings
0.24
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.20
0.16
0.20
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5 percent of
their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-48
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-8b. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.99
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.54
0.04
0.99
0.15
0.16
0.14
0.50
0.04
1.09
0.16
0.18
0.11
0.60
0.05
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.09
0.60
0.05
1.11
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.11
0.15
0.23
0.07
0.61
0.05
1.06
0.14
0.22
0.06
0.58
0.05
0.98
0.14
0.19
0.05
0.55
0.05
1.06
0.15
0.20
0.08
0.58
0.05
Never Married Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.74
0.12
0.08
0.11
0.38
0.03
0.91
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.46
0.05
0.83
0.15
0.12
0.09
0.44
0.03
1.03
0.15
0.16
0.08
0.59
0.04
0.97
0.13
0.16
0.06
0.56
0.05
0.87
0.15
0.17
0.05
0.46
0.04
0.88
0.14
0.19
0.04
0.45
0.05
0.86
0.14
0.18
0.04
0.46
0.04
0.89
0.14
0.16
0.06
0.48
0.04
Married Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
1.05
0.15
0.14
0.11
0.59
0.04
1.03
0.15
0.17
0.14
0.53
0.04
1.12
0.15
0.19
0.11
0.63
0.05
1.10
0.14
0.19
0.09
0.63
0.05
1.15
0.14
0.23
0.07
0.66
0.05
1.14
0.14
0.24
0.06
0.66
0.05
1.08
0.13
0.22
0.07
0.61
0.04
1.01
0.13
0.20
0.05
0.59
0.04
1.09
0.14
0.21
0.08
0.62
0.05
Widowed Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.72
0.20
0.09
0.12
0.25
0.05
0.85
0.18
0.10
0.16
0.35
0.05
0.84
0.24
0.16
0.12
0.26
0.06
0.87
0.22
0.16
0.08
0.35
0.07
0.89
0.23
0.20
0.08
0.32
0.06
0.96
0.21
0.24
0.07
0.35
0.08
0.97
0.21
0.23
0.07
0.39
0.07
0.77
0.20
0.17
0.05
0.29
0.06
0.87
0.21
0.18
0.09
0.32
0.06
Divorced Individuals
Total Income
0.88
0.89
1.16
1.05
1.12
1.14
1.09
1.02
1.07
Social Security Benefits
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.19
0.16
0.18
0.15
0.16
0.16
Financial Income
0.08
0.12
0.15
0.16
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.19
0.18
DB Pension Income
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.08
Earned Income
0.46
0.46
0.68
0.58
0.63
0.60
0.61
0.57
0.59
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.08
0.05
0.06
0.06
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-49
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-8c. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security
Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
White, Non-Hispanic
Total Income
Social Security
Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
African-American
Total Income
Social Security
Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
All
0.99
0.99
1.09
1.07
1.11
1.11
1.06
0.98
1.06
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.54
0.04
0.15
0.16
0.14
0.50
0.04
0.16
0.18
0.11
0.60
0.05
0.16
0.18
0.09
0.60
0.05
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
0.15
0.23
0.07
0.61
0.05
0.14
0.22
0.06
0.58
0.05
0.14
0.19
0.05
0.55
0.05
0.15
0.20
0.08
0.58
0.05
1.06
1.07
1.19
1.18
1.23
1.23
1.21
1.11
1.17
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.57
0.05
0.16
0.19
0.14
0.53
0.05
0.16
0.21
0.12
0.64
0.06
0.16
0.21
0.09
0.66
0.06
0.16
0.26
0.08
0.67
0.06
0.16
0.27
0.08
0.67
0.06
0.15
0.26
0.07
0.67
0.06
0.14
0.23
0.06
0.63
0.05
0.16
0.23
0.09
0.64
0.06
0.71
0.81
0.79
0.80
0.83
0.81
0.71
0.67
0.77
0.15
0.02
0.08
0.42
0.02
0.15
0.05
0.13
0.44
0.02
0.18
0.06
0.09
0.44
0.03
0.18
0.08
0.08
0.43
0.03
0.14
0.09
0.07
0.51
0.03
0.16
0.10
0.05
0.47
0.03
0.15
0.11
0.04
0.38
0.02
0.16
0.12
0.04
0.32
0.03
0.16
0.09
0.07
0.42
0.03
Hispanic
Total Income
0.66
0.55
0.70
0.64
0.72
0.70
0.75
0.74
0.70
Social Security
Benefits
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.12
0.12
Financial Income
0.07
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.11
0.11
DB Pension Income
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.04
0.04
Earned Income
0.37
0.28
0.42
0.36
0.42
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.40
Imputed Rental Income 0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-50
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-8d. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Educational Attainment and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.99
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.54
0.04
0.99
0.15
0.16
0.14
0.50
0.04
1.09
0.16
0.18
0.11
0.60
0.05
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.09
0.60
0.05
1.11
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.11
0.15
0.23
0.07
0.61
0.05
1.06
0.14
0.22
0.06
0.58
0.05
0.98
0.14
0.19
0.05
0.55
0.05
1.06
0.15
0.20
0.08
0.58
0.05
High School Dropout
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.59
0.15
0.05
0.07
0.28
0.02
0.53
0.14
0.06
0.08
0.22
0.02
0.51
0.15
0.05
0.06
0.22
0.02
0.47
0.12
0.04
0.04
0.24
0.02
0.42
0.11
0.05
0.02
0.22
0.02
0.46
0.10
0.07
0.02
0.25
0.02
0.45
0.11
0.07
0.02
0.23
0.02
0.48
0.10
0.06
0.02
0.27
0.02
0.49
0.12
0.06
0.04
0.24
0.02
High School Graduate
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.93
0.17
0.14
0.12
0.44
0.05
1.00
0.16
0.17
0.14
0.48
0.05
0.98
0.17
0.17
0.11
0.49
0.05
0.92
0.16
0.16
0.08
0.48
0.04
0.95
0.16
0.19
0.07
0.49
0.05
0.95
0.15
0.19
0.06
0.51
0.05
0.89
0.15
0.18
0.05
0.47
0.04
0.82
0.14
0.16
0.05
0.43
0.04
0.92
0.16
0.17
0.08
0.48
0.04
College Graduate
Total Income
1.95
1.54
1.78
1.64
1.76
1.81
1.75
1.54
1.71
Social Security Benefits
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.14
Financial Income
0.24
0.26
0.30
0.30
0.36
0.41
0.38
0.32
0.34
DB Pension Income
0.16
0.19
0.15
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.08
0.12
Earned Income
1.37
0.90
1.14
1.00
1.07
1.05
1.03
0.93
1.04
Imputed Rental Income
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.08
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5 percent of
their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-51
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-8e. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
0.99
0.99
1.09
1.07
1.11
1.11
1.06
0.98
1.06
Social Security Benefits
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.15
Financial Income
0.13
0.16
0.18
0.18
0.22
0.23
0.22
0.19
0.20
DB Pension Income
0.11
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.08
Earned Income
0.54
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.62
0.61
0.58
0.55
0.58
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.22
0.22
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.22
Social Security Benefits
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.11
Financial Income
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
DB Pension Income
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.04
Imputed Rental Income
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.53
0.56
0.56
0.54
0.56
0.55
0.51
0.49
0.53
Social Security Benefits
0.20
0.17
0.19
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.18
Financial Income
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.08
DB Pension Income
0.06
0.09
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.05
Earned Income
0.17
0.20
0.18
0.17
0.21
0.21
0.18
0.16
0.19
Imputed Rental Income
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.83
0.89
0.90
0.89
0.93
0.90
0.84
0.79
0.87
Social Security Benefits
0.19
0.16
0.19
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.15
0.16
0.17
Financial Income
0.11
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.15
DB Pension Income
0.14
0.16
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.08
Earned Income
0.36
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.46
0.45
0.44
0.39
0.42
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.19
1.29
1.39
1.38
1.47
1.44
1.35
1.28
1.36
Social Security Benefits
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.15
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
Financial Income
0.21
0.25
0.27
0.26
0.32
0.31
0.26
0.27
0.27
DB Pension Income
0.18
0.21
0.17
0.13
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.11
Earned Income
0.58
0.61
0.73
0.78
0.84
0.84
0.80
0.74
0.76
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Top Quintile
Total Income
2.55
2.29
2.74
2.67
2.87
2.85
2.80
2.55
2.70
Social Security Benefits
0.11
0.12
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.11
Financial Income
0.30
0.37
0.42
0.45
0.59
0.64
0.65
0.51
0.52
DB Pension Income
0.21
0.23
0.21
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.18
0.12
0.17
Earned Income
1.86
1.49
1.93
1.88
1.92
1.80
1.75
1.73
1.80
Imputed Rental Income
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.10
0.10
0.10
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5 percent of
their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-52
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-8f. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All Individuals
Total Income
1.41
1.16
1.32
1.30
1.51
1.49
1.55
1.44
Social Security Benefits
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
Financial Income
0.52
0.31
0.37
0.37
0.56
0.57
0.59
0.62
DB Pension Income
0.12
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
Earned Income
0.57
0.51
0.62
0.63
0.67
0.64
0.69
0.57
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.22
0.22
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.20
Social Security Benefits
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
Financial Income
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
DB Pension Income
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
Imputed Rental Income
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.53
0.56
0.56
0.54
0.56
0.55
0.51
0.49
Social Security Benefits
0.20
0.17
0.19
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
Financial Income
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
DB Pension Income
0.06
0.09
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
Earned Income
0.17
0.20
0.18
0.17
0.21
0.21
0.18
0.16
Imputed Rental Income
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.83
0.89
0.90
0.89
0.93
0.90
0.84
0.79
Social Security Benefits
0.19
0.16
0.19
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.15
0.16
Financial Income
0.11
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.15
DB Pension Income
0.14
0.16
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.05
Earned Income
0.35
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.46
0.45
0.44
0.39
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.19
1.29
1.40
1.39
1.47
1.44
1.35
1.28
Social Security Benefits
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.15
Financial Income
0.23
0.26
0.28
0.27
0.32
0.31
0.26
0.27
DB Pension Income
0.17
0.20
0.17
0.13
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.07
Earned Income
0.57
0.60
0.72
0.77
0.84
0.84
0.80
0.74
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
Top Quintile
Total Income
4.33
2.83
3.44
3.43
4.43
4.32
4.81
4.57
Social Security Benefits
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.12
Financial Income
2.22
1.06
1.29
1.33
2.23
2.22
2.40
2.63
DB Pension Income
0.19
0.21
0.21
0.14
0.14
0.16
0.19
0.14
Earned Income
1.73
1.34
1.74
1.74
1.82
1.66
1.97
1.56
Imputed Rental Income
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.15
0.12
0.11
Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-53
All
1.42
0.15
0.51
0.08
0.62
0.05
0.22
0.11
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.53
0.18
0.08
0.05
0.19
0.03
0.87
0.17
0.15
0.08
0.42
0.04
1.36
0.15
0.28
0.11
0.76
0.06
4.12
0.12
2.00
0.17
1.72
0.11
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-9a. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35
1936-40
1941-45
1946-50
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.25
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.05
0.80
0.27
0.19
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.20
0.13
0.16
0.05
0.82
0.28
0.20
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.24
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.26
0.09
0.19
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.79
0.26
0.22
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.22
0.10
0.18
0.05
Male
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Own benefits
Wife's benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Own earnings
Wife's earnings
Imputed Rental Income
0.84
0.24
0.19
0.10
0.16
0.14
0.21
0.11
0.09
0.05
0.83
0.28
0.21
0.10
0.18
0.15
0.16
0.07
0.08
0.05
0.86
0.27
0.21
0.10
0.19
0.12
0.18
0.10
0.08
0.05
0.85
0.28
0.21
0.09
0.20
0.10
0.20
0.11
0.09
0.05
0.90
0.28
0.22
0.09
0.23
0.09
0.20
0.12
0.08
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.21
0.09
0.26
0.09
0.21
0.11
0.09
0.05
0.88
0.26
0.20
0.09
0.23
0.08
0.21
0.12
0.09
0.05
0.86
0.25
0.20
0.08
0.19
0.07
0.24
0.13
0.11
0.04
0.87
0.27
0.20
0.09
0.21
0.10
0.21
0.11
0.09
0.05
Female
Total Income
0.72
0.78
0.78
0.79
0.82
0.85
0.79
0.74
0.79
Social Security Benefits
0.26
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.28
Own benefits
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
Husband's benefits
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.09
Financial Income
0.16
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.23
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.21
DB Pension Income
0.14
0.15
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.10
Earned Income
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.15
Own earnings
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
Husband's earnings
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort. Husband’s and Wife’s benefits are the total Social Security benefit received by the
respondent’s spouse regardless of benefit type.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-54
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-9b. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.25
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.05
0.80
0.27
0.19
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.20
0.13
0.16
0.05
0.82
0.28
0.20
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.24
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.26
0.09
0.19
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.79
0.26
0.22
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.22
0.10
0.18
0.05
Never Married Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.70
0.20
0.14
0.14
0.16
0.04
0.71
0.26
0.14
0.11
0.14
0.04
0.68
0.24
0.13
0.10
0.16
0.03
0.73
0.27
0.18
0.09
0.15
0.03
0.72
0.26
0.18
0.08
0.14
0.05
0.70
0.25
0.19
0.07
0.14
0.03
0.74
0.24
0.20
0.07
0.17
0.05
0.75
0.26
0.20
0.06
0.17
0.04
0.72
0.25
0.18
0.08
0.16
0.04
Married Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.81
0.24
0.18
0.15
0.18
0.05
0.82
0.26
0.20
0.15
0.16
0.04
0.84
0.26
0.22
0.13
0.18
0.05
0.84
0.27
0.21
0.11
0.20
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.26
0.10
0.20
0.05
0.87
0.27
0.27
0.09
0.21
0.05
0.84
0.26
0.25
0.09
0.20
0.04
0.81
0.24
0.22
0.08
0.22
0.04
0.84
0.26
0.23
0.11
0.20
0.05
Widowed Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.69
0.29
0.10
0.16
0.08
0.05
0.77
0.30
0.13
0.18
0.09
0.05
0.76
0.31
0.19
0.11
0.09
0.06
0.76
0.31
0.17
0.10
0.09
0.07
0.78
0.31
0.21
0.09
0.11
0.06
0.88
0.32
0.29
0.09
0.11
0.08
0.85
0.31
0.26
0.09
0.12
0.07
0.71
0.29
0.19
0.07
0.10
0.06
0.78
0.31
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.07
Divorced Individuals
Total Income
0.71
0.76
0.79
0.80
0.86
0.90
0.82
0.82
0.82
Social Security Benefits
0.27
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.30
0.29
0.31
Financial Income
0.11
0.16
0.16
0.19
0.22
0.24
0.25
0.22
0.21
DB Pension Income
0.16
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.10
Earned Income
0.12
0.12
0.15
0.14
0.17
0.17
0.15
0.19
0.16
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.07
0.05
0.06
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the
top 5 percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-55
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-9c. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.25
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.05
0.80
0.27
0.19
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.20
0.13
0.16
0.05
0.82
0.28
0.20
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.24
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.26
0.09
0.19
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.79
0.26
0.22
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.22
0.10
0.18
0.05
White, Non-Hispanic
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.83
0.26
0.19
0.16
0.16
0.05
0.88
0.29
0.22
0.16
0.15
0.05
0.90
0.29
0.24
0.14
0.18
0.05
0.89
0.30
0.24
0.11
0.19
0.06
0.95
0.31
0.29
0.11
0.19
0.06
0.96
0.30
0.30
0.10
0.20
0.06
0.95
0.29
0.30
0.10
0.20
0.06
0.90
0.28
0.26
0.09
0.23
0.05
0.92
0.29
0.26
0.12
0.19
0.06
African-American
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.58
0.21
0.04
0.16
0.14
0.03
0.60
0.24
0.05
0.16
0.11
0.03
0.56
0.26
0.06
0.11
0.10
0.03
0.63
0.26
0.08
0.10
0.15
0.03
0.62
0.26
0.09
0.09
0.16
0.03
0.61
0.26
0.11
0.07
0.14
0.03
0.58
0.24
0.13
0.05
0.14
0.02
0.61
0.25
0.12
0.06
0.14
0.03
0.60
0.25
0.10
0.09
0.14
0.03
Hispanic
Total Income
0.54
0.48
0.50
0.50
0.55
0.59
0.60
0.57
0.56
Social Security Benefits
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.23
0.22
0.21
Financial Income
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.12
0.12
DB Pension Income
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.06
Earned Income
0.14
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.14
Imputed Rental Income
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the
top 5 percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-56
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-9d. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Level of Educational
Attainment and Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.25
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.05
0.80
0.27
0.19
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.20
0.13
0.16
0.05
0.82
0.28
0.20
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.24
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.26
0.09
0.19
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.79
0.26
0.22
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.22
0.10
0.18
0.05
High School Dropout
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.51
0.21
0.07
0.09
0.09
0.03
0.45
0.19
0.06
0.08
0.07
0.02
0.41
0.19
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.02
0.36
0.17
0.05
0.04
0.08
0.02
0.36
0.16
0.05
0.02
0.09
0.02
0.39
0.16
0.08
0.02
0.11
0.02
0.38
0.17
0.08
0.02
0.09
0.02
0.38
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.09
0.02
0.41
0.18
0.07
0.05
0.09
0.02
High School Graduate
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.79
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.83
0.29
0.19
0.16
0.14
0.05
0.79
0.28
0.19
0.11
0.15
0.05
0.75
0.28
0.17
0.10
0.15
0.05
0.78
0.28
0.21
0.08
0.16
0.05
0.77
0.28
0.21
0.08
0.16
0.05
0.74
0.26
0.21
0.07
0.16
0.04
0.70
0.25
0.18
0.06
0.17
0.04
0.76
0.27
0.19
0.09
0.16
0.04
College Graduate
Total Income
1.22
1.15
1.17
1.15
1.22
1.32
1.28
1.18
1.22
Social Security Benefits
0.27
0.32
0.31
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.31
0.32
Financial Income
0.29
0.31
0.34
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.43
0.36
0.38
DB Pension Income
0.28
0.23
0.20
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.16
0.13
0.16
Earned Income
0.30
0.23
0.24
0.27
0.26
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.27
Imputed Rental Income
0.08
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.08
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the
top 5 percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-57
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-9e. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70
All Individuals
Total Income
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.82
0.86
0.86
0.83
0.79
Social Security Benefits
0.25
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.26
Financial Income
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.22
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.15
0.13
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
Earned Income
0.16
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.18
0.20
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.21
Social Security Benefits
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
Financial Income
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
DB Pension Income
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Imputed Rental Income
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.47
0.48
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.46
0.44
0.43
Social Security Benefits
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.25
Financial Income
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
DB Pension Income
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
Earned Income
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.05
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.72
0.75
0.72
0.70
0.73
0.72
0.67
0.66
Social Security Benefits
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.28
0.28
Financial Income
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.17
0.16
0.16
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.15
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
Earned Income
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.13
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.02
1.07
1.09
1.07
1.12
1.11
1.07
1.01
Social Security Benefits
0.29
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.30
Financial Income
0.25
0.27
0.31
0.29
0.35
0.33
0.31
0.27
DB Pension Income
0.25
0.23
0.18
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.09
Earned Income
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.23
0.23
0.27
0.26
0.29
Imputed Rental Income
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
Top Quintile
Total Income
1.67
1.69
1.87
1.86
2.05
2.13
2.10
1.94
Social Security Benefits
0.30
0.35
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.39
0.37
0.35
Financial Income
0.43
0.50
0.59
0.59
0.76
0.83
0.79
0.65
DB Pension Income
0.33
0.36
0.31
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.27
0.24
Earned Income
0.53
0.40
0.53
0.55
0.54
0.54
0.57
0.61
Imputed Rental Income
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.09
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the
top 5 percent of their cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-58
All
0.83
0.27
0.22
0.10
0.18
0.05
0.22
0.15
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.46
0.26
0.08
0.04
0.05
0.03
0.71
0.29
0.15
0.09
0.13
0.05
1.07
0.32
0.30
0.14
0.24
0.07
1.95
0.36
0.68
0.27
0.54
0.10
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-9f. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
193135
193640
194145
Year of Birth
1946- 1951- 195650
55
60
All Individuals
Total Income
1.50
1.02
1.06
1.06
1.29
1.27
Social Security Benefits
0.25
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.28
Financial Income
0.87
0.39
0.43
0.42
0.65
0.65
DB Pension Income
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
Earned Income
0.17
0.15
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.19
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.23
0.23
Social Security Benefits
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
Financial Income
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
DB Pension Income
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Imputed Rental Income
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.47
0.48
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.46
Social Security Benefits
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.26
Financial Income
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
DB Pension Income
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.04
Earned Income
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.06
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.72
0.75
0.72
0.70
0.73
0.72
Social Security Benefits
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.31
0.30
Financial Income
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.17
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.15
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.08
Earned Income
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.14
0.14
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.02
1.07
1.09
1.07
1.12
1.11
Social Security Benefits
0.29
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.33
Financial Income
0.25
0.27
0.31
0.29
0.35
0.33
DB Pension Income
0.25
0.23
0.18
0.14
0.13
0.12
Earned Income
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.23
0.23
0.27
Imputed Rental Income
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
Top Quintile
Total Income
5.12
2.55
2.81
2.80
3.88
3.85
Social Security Benefits
0.29
0.35
0.34
0.36
0.37
0.38
Financial Income
3.92
1.43
1.62
1.59
2.64
2.62
DB Pension Income
0.29
0.31
0.29
0.24
0.23
0.24
Earned Income
0.52
0.37
0.46
0.50
0.51
0.47
Imputed Rental Income
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.14
Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
Table A4-10a. Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2020, by Individual Characteristics
IV-59
196165
196670
All
1.29
0.27
0.68
0.09
0.19
0.05
1.30
0.26
0.70
0.09
0.20
0.05
1.23
0.28
0.60
0.11
0.18
0.05
0.22
0.14
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.21
0.14
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.22
0.15
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.44
0.25
0.08
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.43
0.25
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.46
0.26
0.08
0.04
0.05
0.03
0.67
0.28
0.16
0.06
0.13
0.04
0.66
0.28
0.16
0.05
0.13
0.04
0.71
0.29
0.15
0.09
0.13
0.05
1.07
0.32
0.31
0.11
0.26
0.06
1.01
0.30
0.27
0.09
0.29
0.06
1.07
0.32
0.30
0.14
0.24
0.07
4.06
0.36
2.83
0.26
0.49
0.12
4.18
0.35
2.95
0.25
0.52
0.11
3.69
0.36
2.47
0.26
0.48
0.12
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-10a. Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2020, by Individual
Characteristics
Age in 2020
62 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
10.7
10.6
10.7
13.4
14.8
High School Graduate
63.7
59.6
58.2
60.9
60.8
College Graduate
25.6
29.8
31.1
25.6
24.3
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
73.0
74.9
77.4
79.6
80.4
African-American
10.7
10.5
9.3
7.3
9.3
Hispanic
9.2
8.2
7.6
7.8
5.9
Other
7.2
6.3
5.8
5.2
4.4
By Gender
Female
52.6
52.7
57.2
60.4
62.2
Male
47.4
47.3
42.8
39.6
37.8
By Marital Status
Never Married
7.6
7.0
4.8
3.7
3.0
Married
69.1
65.5
62.1
54.9
48.5
Widowed
7.6
10.7
16.2
26.3
34.5
Divorced
15.6
16.7
16.9
15.1
14.1
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
55.9
87.6
94.2
93.1
92.0
DI Recipient
11.5
3.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
SSI Recipient
1.4
2.8
3.4
3.9
4.3
Not Receiving SS Benefit
31.1
6.6
2.4
3.0
3.7
Nativity
Native born
84.0
85.1
86.6
85.5
86.9
Immigrant in or before 1990
11.1
10.2
9.1
9.7
9.0
Immigrant after 1990
4.8
4.7
4.3
4.8
4.1
Notes: DI beneficiaries convert to old age beneficiaries at the normal retirement age.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-60
85 to 89
ALL
100.0
100.0
19.2
61.3
19.5
12.0
60.5
27.5
84.4
7.0
5.7
3.0
76.8
9.5
7.9
5.8
66.8
33.2
56.5
43.5
3.2
38.7
46.4
11.7
5.6
60.7
17.9
15.8
93.0
N/A
4.6
2.4
84.3
3.1
3.0
9.5
88.6
8.2
3.2
85.7
9.8
4.5
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-10b Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and Income
Source (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Percent of
Total
Individuals Incomeb
100%
0.86
Income
From
Social
Imputed
Security
Financial
Rental
SSI
DB
Benefits Benefits Pensions Assets Earnings Income
0.26
0.00
0.10
0.25
0.20
0.05
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
13
0.40
0.17
0.01
0.04
High School Graduate
62
0.79
0.26
0.00
0.09
College Graduate
26
1.25
0.30
0.00
0.16
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
76
0.95
0.27
0.00
0.11
African-American
10
0.61
0.24
0.00
0.08
Hispanic
8
0.52
0.20
0.01
0.05
Other
6
0.63
0.16
0.02
0.05
By Gender
Female
57
0.82
0.27
0.00
0.09
Male
43
0.91
0.25
0.00
0.10
By Marital Status
Never Married
6
0.75
0.22
0.01
0.08
Married
60
0.89
0.24
0.00
0.10
Widowed
18
0.79
0.29
0.01
0.10
Divorced
16
0.85
0.29
0.00
0.09
By Age
62 to 64
20
1.03
0.18
0.00
0.07
65 to 69
28
0.86
0.28
0.00
0.09
70 to 74
22
0.79
0.29
0.00
0.11
75 to 79
14
0.80
0.28
0.01
0.10
80 to 84
9
0.78
0.27
0.01
0.12
85 to 89
6
0.80
0.26
0.01
0.13
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
84
0.86
0.29
0.00
0.11
DI Recipient
3
0.75
0.27
0.00
0.06
SSI Recipient
3
0.17
0.06
0.10
0.00
Not Receiving SS Benefits
10
1.08
0.03
0.00
0.05
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
21
0.22
0.15
0.02
0.01
Second quintile
21
0.47
0.26
0.00
0.05
Third quintile
21
0.72
0.29
0.00
0.09
Fourth quintile
21
1.12
0.30
0.00
0.14
Top quintile
16
2.07
0.32
0.00
0.24
Nativity
Native born
85
0.91
0.27
0.00
0.11
Immigrant in or before 1990
10
0.72
0.22
0.00
0.06
Immigrant after 1990
5
0.29
0.04
0.03
0.04
a/ Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors excluding top wealth holders.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-61
0.08
0.22
0.40
0.08
0.17
0.31
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.29
0.09
0.10
0.18
0.21
0.17
0.13
0.19
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.24
0.27
0.16
0.24
0.05
0.05
0.20
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.05
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.26
0.29
0.31
0.49
0.19
0.11
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.27
0.19
0.00
0.23
0.14
0.18
0.00
0.74
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.07
0.16
0.36
0.77
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.26
0.64
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.11
0.27
0.20
0.07
0.20
0.18
0.09
0.06
0.05
0.01
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-10c Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and Income
Source (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Percent of
Total
Individuals Incomeb
100%
1.31
Income
Social
From
Imputed
Security
SSI
DB
Financial
Rental
Benefits Benefits Pensions Assets Earnings Income
0.26
0.00
0.10
0.68
0.21
0.06
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
12.0
0.40
0.17
0.01
0.04
High School Graduate
60.5
1.13
0.26
0.00
0.09
College Graduate
27.5
2.10
0.30
0.00
0.16
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
76.8
1.47
0.28
0.00
0.11
African-American
9.5
0.63
0.24
0.00
0.09
Hispanic
7.9
0.59
0.20
0.01
0.05
Other
5.8
1.21
0.17
0.02
0.05
By Gender
Female
56.5
1.26
0.27
0.00
0.10
Male
43.5
1.37
0.25
0.00
0.11
By Marital Status
Never Married
5.6
1.08
0.23
0.01
0.09
Married
60.7
1.35
0.25
0.00
0.10
Widowed
17.9
1.43
0.30
0.01
0.10
Divorced
15.8
1.10
0.29
0.00
0.10
By Age
62 to 64
19.9
1.40
0.18
0.00
0.08
65 to 69
28.1
1.28
0.28
0.00
0.10
70 to 74
22.4
1.06
0.30
0.00
0.11
75 to 79
14.1
1.12
0.28
0.00
0.11
80 to 84
9.3
1.10
0.27
0.00
0.12
85 to 89
6.1
2.75
0.26
0.01
0.14
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
84.3
1.35
0.30
0.00
0.11
DI Recipient
3.1
0.93
0.27
0.00
0.06
SSI Recipient
3.0
0.17
0.06
0.10
0.00
Not Receiving SS Benefit
9.5
1.39
0.03
0.00
0.05
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
20.0
0.22
0.15
0.02
0.01
Second quintile
20.0
0.47
0.26
0.00
0.05
Third quintile
20.0
0.72
0.29
0.00
0.09
Fourth quintile
20.0
1.12
0.30
0.00
0.14
Top quintile
20.0
4.01
0.32
0.00
0.22
Nativity
Native Born
85
0.91
0.27
0.00
0.11
Immigrant in or before 1990
10
0.72
0.22
0.00
0.06
Immigrant after 1990
5
0.29
0.04
0.03
0.04
a/ Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-62
0.08
0.55
1.21
0.08
0.18
0.34
0.02
0.05
0.09
0.80
0.11
0.16
0.72
0.22
0.17
0.14
0.21
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.67
0.69
0.17
0.26
0.06
0.06
0.51
0.69
0.87
0.45
0.20
0.25
0.08
0.21
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.06
0.57
0.65
0.48
0.57
0.60
2.25
0.52
0.20
0.12
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.74
0.36
0.00
0.45
0.15
0.18
0.00
0.81
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.05
0.02
0.07
0.16
0.36
2.77
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.26
0.58
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.12
0.27
0.20
0.07
0.20
0.18
0.09
0.06
0.05
0.01
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-12a. Average Family Total Income as a Percent of the Poverty Threshold in 2020,
by Age and Individual Characteristics
62 to 64
9.41
65 to 69
8.53
Age in 2020
75 to 79 80 to 84
6.93
6.84
85 to 89 ALL
15.31
8.36
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
3.27
2.53
2.45
2.52
2.96
3.01
2.74
High School Graduate
6.56
6.20
5.57
5.94
6.35
20.53
7.00
College Graduate
19.08
15.32
10.83
11.61
10.42
11.02
13.80
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
10.75
9.05
7.77
7.86
7.55
17.55
9.33
African-American
4.71
4.25
3.82
3.20
3.69
3.16
4.04
Hispanic
5.45
4.02
3.32
3.21
3.21
2.82
3.97
Other
7.77
15.29
4.40
3.59
5.34
4.11
8.50
By Gender
Female
8.78
8.07
6.06
5.66
6.47
15.27
7.74
Male
10.11
9.03
7.95
8.88
7.44
15.39
9.17
By Marital Status
Never Married
4.89
5.26
4.38
7.98
5.08
5.76
5.26
Married
11.13
10.32
8.27
8.34
9.19
15.16
9.89
Widowed
5.31
4.67
4.32
4.31
4.78
19.06
6.87
Divorced
5.98
5.32
4.92
6.13
4.13
3.59
5.29
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
9.36
8.77
7.20
7.34
7.27
16.28
8.59
DI Recipient
6.58
5.05
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.17
SSI Recipient
1.36
1.27
1.26
1.21
1.43
1.36
1.30
Not Receiving SS Benefits
10.91
9.82
1.73
1.72
2.46
4.79
9.37
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
1.81
1.71
1.64
1.57
1.47
1.59
1.66
Second quintile
3.40
3.23
2.93
2.63
2.74
2.56
3.03
Third quintile
5.32
4.77
4.29
4.03
4.17
3.64
4.54
Fourth quintile
8.43
7.32
6.53
6.55
6.08
5.73
7.05
Top quintile
26.84
26.42
18.95
20.03
19.59
64.37
25.56
Nativity
Native Born
9.96
8.43
7.36
7.46
7.04
16.74
8.74
Immigrant in or before 1990
7.96
12.24
4.56
5.01
7.40
5.00
7.89
Immigrant after 1990
3.13
2.37
1.88
1.48
1.43
2.18
2.21
N/A indicates not applicable. All DI beneficiaries convert to worker benefits at the normal retirement age.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
IV-63
70 to 74
6.87
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-12b. Percent of Individuals in Poverty in 2020, by Age and Individual
Characteristics
62 to 64
4.2
65 to 69
4.9
Age in 2020
75 to 79 80 to 84
6.0
6.4
85 to 89
5.4
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
15.2
24.3
25.8
19.8
18.8
9.9
High School Graduate
3.3
3.3
4.0
4.3
5.0
5.0
College Graduate
2.0
1.2
1.1
2.8
2.3
2.2
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.4
3.8
African-American
9.5
9.2
9.2
14.0
13.8
15.8
Hispanic
5.7
11.0
11.3
9.8
10.7
6.1
Other
10.7
10.9
19.0
23.3
20.0
24.1
By Gender/Marital Status
4.7
5.7
7.0
7.8
7.7
6.1
All Females
Never Married Female
14.8
14.3
9.3
15.0
22.2
26.7
Married Female
2.7
3.1
4.3
4.1
5.5
2.3
Widowed Female
7.9
9.2
8.9
8.9
7.0
5.4
Divorced Female
5.7
7.5
10.7
13.2
11.1
8.8
3.7
4.0
3.3
3.2
4.2
3.9
All Males
Never Married Male
11.3
17.6
13.6
18.3
5.4
0.0
Married Male
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.3
3.5
2.7
Widowed Male
3.9
7.7
11.5
6.8
11.0
9.0
Divorced Male
5.1
5.0
4.6
2.7
0.0
3.6
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
DI Recipient
4.2
3.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
SSI Recipient
59.3
63.4
64.8
63.5
51.9
50.7
Not Receiving SS Benefit
6.7
20.2
44.4
50.7
53.2
34.3
Nativity
Native Born
3.2
3.7
3.4
3.5
4.2
3.8
Immigrant in or before 1990
4.2
4.1
6.7
2.8
4.2
7.0
Immigrant after 1990
21.2
27.9
42.2
56.7
56.4
43.7
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4.
N/A indicates not applicable. All DI beneficiaries convert to worker benefits at the normal retirement age.
IV-64
70 to 74
5.4
ALL
5.2
20.2
3.8
1.7
3.3
10.5
9.4
15.3
6.4
14.6
3.5
7.9
9.2
3.7
14.2
2.4
8.6
4.3
2.1
4.1
60.7
15.6
3.6
4.6
37.0
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-12c. Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Old Population, Average Family Income as a Percent
of Poverty and Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Olds Below Poverty in the Early 1990s and 2020, by
Individual Characteristics
Percent of Retirees
Early
1990s
2020
Average Family
Income/Poverty Threshold
Census
Measure
Early
1990s
UI
Measure
Early
1990s
2020
Percent of Retirees Below
Poverty
Census
Measure
Early
1990s
UI
Measure
Early
1990s
2020
100%
100.0%
3.33
3.47
8.36
8.2%
7.8%
5.2%
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
39.8
12.6
2.30
2.42
2.74
14.9
14.4
20.2
High School Graduate
47.5
61.8
3.57
3.71
7.00
4.3
3.9
3.8
College Graduate
12.7
25.7
5.63
5.80
13.80
2.0
2.1
1.7
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
85.5
76.1
3.50
3.65
9.33
6.1
5.7
3.3
African-American
7.6
9.9
2.13
2.19
4.04
23.8
23.5
10.5
Hispanic
4.7
8.2
2.25
2.33
3.97
20.1
19.4
9.4
Other
2.2
5.8
3.18
3.30
8.50
10.4
11.9
15.3
By Gender
Female
57.5
56.8
3.05
3.16
7.74
10.8
10.3
6.4
Male
42.5
43.2
3.71
3.90
9.17
4.7
4.3
3.7
By Marital Status
Never Married
4.6
5.6
2.69
2.68
5.26
17.6
17.0
22.8
Married
59.2
60.3
3.88
4.07
9.89
2.6
2.5
2.6
Widowed
29.2
18.1
2.50
2.55
6.87
15.1
14.4
5.8
Divorced
7.0
15.9
2.53
2.61
5.29
20.8
20.2
8.0
By Age
62 to 64
16.1
20.0
4.17
4.29
9.41
6.1
6.1
4.2
65 to 69
27.9
28.1
3.55
3.65
8.53
6.4
6.1
4.9
70 to 74
22.9
22.4
3.19
3.30
6.87
7.8
7.5
5.4
75 to 79
16.6
14.1
3.01
3.15
6.93
9.5
9.0
6.0
80 to 84
12.1
9.3
2.67
2.84
6.84
12.8
12.4
6.4
85 to 89
4.3
6.1
2.62
2.83
15.31
11.8
10.7
5.4
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
76.6
84.0
3.29
3.42
8.59
5.6
5.2
2.1
DI Recipient
6.5
3.2
2.43
2.53
6.17
12.5
12.2
4.1
SSI Recipient
4.9
3.2
1.41
1.43
1.30
49.1
48.9
60.7
Not Receiving SS Benefit
12.0
9.5
4.83
5.06
9.37
5.7
5.6
15.6
Income from assets is based on reported income from assets in the Census measure and annuitized assets in the UI
measure.
All poverty rates use the 65 and older poverty thresholds.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4 and the 1990 to 1993 SIPP.
IV-65
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A4-12d. Contribution of Individual Characteristics to Poverty Rates in Early
1990s and 2020 (UI Measures of Poverty Level Income)
Percent of Retirees
Early
1990s
100.0%
2020
100.0%
Percent of Retirees
Below Poverty
Early
1990s
7.8%
Early
1990s
7.8%
2020
5.2%
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
39.8%
12.6
14.4%
20.2
5.7%
2.5
High School Graduate
47.5%
61.8
3.9%
3.8
1.9%
2.3
College Graduate
12.7%
25.7
2.1%
1.7
0.3%
0.4
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
85.5%
76.1
5.7%
3.3
4.9%
2.5
African-American
7.6%
9.9
23.5%
10.5
1.8%
1.0
Hispanic
4.7%
8.2
19.4%
9.4
0.9%
0.8
Other
2.2%
5.8
11.9%
15.3
0.3%
0.9
By Gender
Female
57.5%
56.8
10.3%
6.4
5.9%
3.6
Male
42.5%
43.2
4.3%
3.7
1.8%
1.6
By Marital Status
Never Married
4.6%
5.6
17.0%
22.8
0.8%
1.3
Married
59.2%
60.3
2.5%
2.6
1.5%
1.6
Widowed
29.2%
18.1
14.4%
5.8
4.2%
1.1
Divorced
7.0%
15.9
20.2%
8.0
1.4%
1.3
By Age
62 to 64
16.1%
20.0
6.1%
4.2
1.0%
0.8
65 to 69
27.9%
28.1
6.1%
4.9
1.7%
1.4
70 to 74
22.9%
22.4
7.5%
5.4
1.7%
1.2
75 to 79
16.6%
14.1
9.0%
6.0
1.5%
0.8
80 to 84
12.1%
9.3
12.4%
6.4
1.5%
0.6
85 to 89
4.3%
6.1
10.7%
5.4
0.5%
0.3
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
76.6%
84.0
5.2%
2.1
4.0%
1.8
DI Recipient
6.5%
3.2
12.2%
4.1
0.8%
0.1
SSI Recipient
4.9%
3.2
48.9%
60.7
2.4%
1.9
Not Receiving SS Benefit
12.0%
9.5
5.6%
15.6
0.7%
1.5
NOTE: Contribution to poverty of any group is equal to the product of its share in the population and its own
poverty rate
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4 and the 1990 to 1993 SIPP.
IV-66
2020
5.2%
Contribution to
Poverty
CHAPTER 4: SUMMARY OF MINT4 RESULTS
APRIL 2005
REFERENCES
Dalaker, Joseph, 2001. “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” U. S. Census Bureau, Current
Population Reports, Series P60-214. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
DC, 2001.
Butrica, Barbara, Karen E. Smith, and Eric Toder. 2002. “Projecting Poverty Rates In 2020
for the 62 and Older Population: What Changes Can We Expect and Why?” Report for
the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The Urban Institute.
Washington DC.
Panis, Constantijn, and Lee Lillard. 1999. “Near Term Model Development.” Final Report,
SSA Contract No:600-96-27335. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
IV-67
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 5
EXTENSIONS TO MINT
I.
OVERVIEW
In December 2001, the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security
released its report outlining three alternative models for Social Security reform. Each of
the models includes voluntary personal accounts as a central feature. In order to analyze
the distributional impact of these types of reform, both in the transition years and when
fully implemented, it is necessary to have retirement income projections that extend out
beyond the base MINT4 projection period and that include additional birth cohorts.
If implemented in 2007, full implementation would not occur until the 1986
cohort (at a working age of 21 in 2007) reaches age 62 in 2048. Furthermore, it will take
a number of years beyond 2048 for the majority of retirees to have been in a personal
account for all of their working lives. MINT4EX adds cohorts born between 1973 and
2017 and projects retirement income out to 2099 (the year the 2017 cohort turns age 82).
By 2099, cohorts born between 1986 and 2017 will have been in the personal retirement
account system for their entire working lives – thereby reflecting the reform’s full
implementation.
This chapter describes the statistical matching method used to generate the full
implementation population for MINT4. It details the projection sample selection and the
estimated distance function weights.
II.
METHOD
The base MINT4 data file includes individuals born between 1926 and 1972.
MINTEX extends this data file to include cohorts born between 1973 and 2017. We
generated the members of the 1973-2017 cohorts (target individuals) in two distinct
ways: one for individuals born between 1973 and 1983, and one for individuals born
between 1984 and 2017. The two methods are designed to maximize the amount of
information available about these individuals.
For those born between 1973 and 1983, we extracted the sample of individuals
from the March 2003 Current Population Survey (CPS) who were born in these years.
Finally, for individuals born between 1984 and 2017, we generated 1,000 target
individuals whose characteristics are based on Census population projections at age 38
(the average age of the donor population in the 1993 SIPP interview year) by sex, race
and ethnicity, and foreign-born status.1
1
Census targets are available at http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natdet-D1A.html and
V-1
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
We assigned additional demographic and economic characteristics for target
individuals from either CPS or the synthetic Census estimates through a statistical match.
The MINT4 1960-1964 cohorts2 serve as the donor population for the CPS 1973-1978
target individuals. Once information about the 1973-1978 cohorts is generated, we use
these cohorts as the donor population for the CPS 1979-1983 target individuals. Finally,
we use the 1973-1983 cohorts as the donor population for the 1984-2017 Census
projected target individuals (see Table 5-1).
Table 5-1. Methods for Creating Additional Birth Cohorts
Cohorts
1926-1972
1973-1978
Targets
MINT4
CPS
Donors
N/A
MINT4
1960-1964
cohorts
1979-1983
CPS
1973-1978
cohorts
1984-2017
Census
1973-1983
Projections cohorts
Matching Variables
None – these are the MINT4 original cohorts
Age, sex, race/ethnicity, education (less than
high school, high school graduate, and college
graduate), age-specific earnings, age-specific
marital status, and foreign-born status
Age, sex, race/ethnicity, education (less than
high school and high school or more), agespecific earnings, age-specific marital status,
and foreign-born status
Sex, race/ethnicity, and foreign-born status
We adjusted the size of the donor population to reflect the CPS and Census
population weights. We then statistically matched target individuals to donor individuals
using as many demographic and economic characteristics as available. The statistical
match selects the donor individual with the minimum distance from the recipient based
on the following form:
n
Dd = ∑ w j * [( X dj − X rj ) / σ j ] 2
j =1
where D is the distance, j is the number of measured attributes in the distance function, w
is a weight factor, X is a characteristic (e.g., age, sex, race and ethnicity, and foreign born
status), σ is the standard deviation of the jth X variable in the dataset, d denotes the
characteristic of the donor (from MINT), and r denotes the characteristic of the recipient
(from the CPS or Census). We obtained weights in the distance function by estimating
separately for males and females stepwise OLS regressions of average early career
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natdet-D2.html.
2
We chose not to use MINT4 cohorts born after 1964 as donors since they were less likely to have been in
a career job when interviewed about their pension coverage in the 1996 SIPP. Those born between 1960
and 1964 were asked about their pension coverage when they were between ages 34 and 38
V-2
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
earnings (i.e., average earnings between ages 20 and 35) on a set of demographic
characteristics. The weight for each factor is equal to the proportion of the variance in
early career earnings that it explains (the partial R-squared).3
We tailored the distance function to use as much information as the target group
could support. In all cases, we restricted the match to individuals of the same sex. For
individuals born between 1973 and 1978, we used the following variables for the
statistical match: age, race and ethnicity, education (less than high school, high school
graduate, and college graduate), age-specific earnings, age-specific marital status, and
foreign-born status. For individuals born between 1979 and 1983, we relaxed the
education criteria to less than high school and high school or more. For individuals born
between 1984 and 2017, we used only race and ethnicity and foreign-born status for the
statistical match, as these were the only variables available from the target source. For
each match, we entered the donor pool at a randomly selected point to allow for
maximum independence in assignment. Once we selected the donor with the minimum
distance, we assigned the donor’s projected MINT data to the target individual, making
sure to preserve the age-specific patterns of the donor.
Table 5-2 shows the parameter estimates, partial R-square, and summary statistics
for the 1960-1964 male and female donors that are used to impute the characteristics of
the 1973-1978 CPS target observations. Table 5-3 shows the same information for the
1973-1978 donors that are used to impute the characteristics of the 1979-1983 CPS target
observations. Finally, Table 5-4 shows the statistics for the 1979-1983 donors that are
used to impute the 1984-2017 Census-based target observations. Note that the model Rsquares and partial R-squares are smaller for the later donors compared to the 1960-1964
donors. This reflects both the smaller number of explanatory variables included in the
model for the latter groups, and also the relatively lower correlation of earnings at
younger ages that are used in the match in describing early career earnings compared to
later earnings. Each of the three statistical matches performs exceedingly well, with
about 99 percent of target observations matching the donor observations in each of the
matching characteristics.
Once we generated the additional cohorts, we adjusted their death dates (and all
corresponding variables) to reflect increases in life expectancy projected by OCACT.
For women, we add 0.06195 times the difference in the birth year of the donor and target.
For men, the factor is 0.07033. So, for a woman born in 1974 who was matched to a
donor record born in 1964, we would add 0.6195 years (10*0.06195) to her age at death.
These adjustment factors were estimated from regressions of the age- and cohort-specific
life expectancy from the 2004 Trustees’ Assumptions. Table 5-5 presents the parameter
estimates.
3
This weighting method uses all matching variables to determine a donor record. In cases where there is
not a perfect match, it is much more likely to match along characteristics that are most important in
predicting the characteristic of interest.
V-3
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
Table 5-2. OLS Parameter Estimates, Partial R-Square, and Summary
Statistics for 1960-1964 Donors
Parameter Standard Partial
Standard
Mean Deviation
Estimate
Error
R-Square
Intercept
Earnings at Age 35
Foreign Born
Married at Age 35
High School Graduate
College Graduate
White
Black
Hispanic
0.243
0.386
-0.332
0.063
0.080
0.055
0.039
-0.030
0.009
Observations
Model R-Square
7,152
0.78
Intercept
Earnings at Age 35
Foreign Born
Married at Age 35
High School Graduate
College Graduate
Black
White
Hispanic
0.1461
0.4444
-0.1936
0.0202
0.0422
0.0961
-0.0345
0.0162
0.0081
0.016
0.004
0.009
0.008
0.010
0.011
0.012
0.015
0.010
Males
N/A
0.715
0.064
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
N/A
0.7116
0.4709
0.7166
0.5316
0.2514
0.7768
0.114
0.1997
N/A
1.1005
0.4992
0.4507
0.499
0.4338
0.4164
0.3178
0.3998
0.0086
0.0041
0.0052
0.0048
0.0054
0.0068
0.0083
0.0066
0.0059
Females
N/A
0.6947
0.0552
0.0005
0.002
0.0047
0.0018
0.0003
0.0001
N/A
0.3328
0.5292
0.7473
0.5486
0.1868
0.129
0.7388
0.1912
N/A
0.5728
0.4992
0.4346
0.4977
0.3897
0.3352
0.4393
0.3932
Observations
8,433
Model R-Square
0.759
Source: Urban Institute estimates from 1960-1964 cohorts of MINT4.
Notes: Dependent variable is the average wage-indexed earnings from age 20 to 35.
Mean of the dependent variable is 0.49 for males and 0.26 for females.
Earnings are expressed as a percent of the average wage.
V-4
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
Table 5-3. OLS Parameter Estimates, Partial R-Square, and Summary
Statistics for 1973-1978 Donors
Parameter Standard Partial
Standard
Mean Deviation
Estimate
Error
R-Square
Intercept
Earnings at Age 35
Foreign Born
Married at Age 35
High School or More
White
Black
Hispanic
0.2016
0.3943
-0.1285
0.1091
0.1394
N/A
-0.0757
N/A
Observations
Model R-Square
7,299
0.51
Intercept
Earnings at Age 35
Foreign Born
Married at Age 35
High School or More
White
Black
Hispanic
0.0664
0.4179
-0.0828
0.0424
0.1458
0.0128
-0.0184
-0.0147
Observations
Model R-Square
8,196
0.589
0.0196
0.0050
0.0150
0.0122
0.0182
N/A
0.0187
N/A
Males
N/A
0.4962
0.0075
0.0054
0.0037
0.0001
0.0011
0.0001
N/A
1.1345
0.2032
0.6587
0.8703
0.8196
0.1049
0.2250
N/A
1.1825
0.4024
0.4742
0.3360
0.3846
0.3065
0.4176
0.0155
0.0043
0.0090
0.0063
0.0098
0.0117
0.0136
0.0085
Females
N/A
0.5600
0.0059
0.0030
0.0191
0.0001
0.0006
0.0001
N/A
0.6239
0.1846
0.6956
0.8897
0.7942
0.1308
0.2007
N/A
0.6764
0.3880
0.4602
0.3133
0.4043
0.3372
0.4006
Source: Urban Institute estimates from MINT4 extended 1973-1978 cohorts.
Notes: Dependent variable is the average wage-indexed earnings from age 20 to
35. Mean of the dependent variable is 0.81 for males and 0.48 for females.
Earnings are expressed as a percent of the average wage.
V-5
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
Table 5-4. OLS Parameter Estimates, Partial R-Square, and Summary
Statistics for 1979-1983 Donors
Parameter Standard Partial
Standard
Independent Variable Estimate
Mean Deviation
Error
R-Square
Intercept
Earnings at Age 35
Foreign Born
Married at Age 35
High School or More
White
Black
Hispanic
0.2422
0.3814
-0.1135
0.1073
0.1424
-0.0452
-0.1280
0.0176
Observations
Model R-Square
13,383
0.55
Intercept
Earnings at Age 35
Foreign Born
Married at Age 35
High School or More
White
Black
Hispanic
0.0640
0.4265
-0.0721
0.0402
0.1403
-0.0138
0.0157
-0.0164
Observations
Model R-Square
14,737
0.606
0.0207
0.0033
0.0126
0.0085
0.0127
0.0162
0.0193
0.0117
Males
N/A
0.5322
0.0026
0.0053
0.0065
0.0002
0.0017
0.0001
N/A
1.1515
0.1787
0.6548
0.8674
0.8166
0.1116
0.2163
N/A
1.2399
0.3831
0.4755
0.3392
0.3870
0.3148
0.4117
0.0112
0.0031
0.0068
0.0046
0.0069
0.0101
0.0088
0.0061
Females
N/A
0.5819
0.0041
0.0026
0.0168
0.0005
0.0001
0.0001
N/A
0.6273
0.1570
0.6815
0.8824
0.1364
0.7952
0.1975
N/A
0.6895
0.3638
0.4659
0.3221
0.3432
0.4036
0.3981
Source: Urban Institute estimates from MINT4 extended 1973-1983 cohorts.
Notes: Dependent variable is the average wage-indexed earnings from age 20 to
35. Mean of the dependent variable is 0.81 for males and 0.48 for females.
Earnings are expressed as a percent of the average wage.
V-6
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
Table 5-5. Parameter Estimates from OLS Regressions for Cohort-Specific
Mortality Adjustment by Sex
Females
Males
Parameter
Standard
Parameter
Standard
Independent Variable
Estimate
Error
Estimate
Error
-39.14905
0.8133
-59.71566
0.8321
Intercept
Cohort * (Age<65)
0.06195
0.0003
0.07033
0.0003
Cohort *(65<=Age<=85)
0.04308
0.0004
0.04253
0.0005
Cohort*(Age>85)
0.01887
0.0003
0.01761
0.0003
Age* (Age<65)
-0.97921
0.0321
-1.02104
0.0328
Age*(65<=Age<=84)
0.55263
0.0504
1.23604
0.0515
Age*(Age>=85)
1.10481
0.0312
1.56510
0.0319
Age Squared * (Age<65)
-0.00072
0.0007
0.00086
0.0007
Age Squared *(65<=Age<=84)
-0.02227
0.0007
-0.03092
0.0008
Age Squared * (Age>=85)
-0.01828
0.0003
-0.02112
0.0003
Age Cubed* (Age<65)
0.00002
0.0000
0.00001
0.0000
Age Cubed *(65<=Age<=84)
0.00012
0.0000
0.00016
0.0000
Age Cubed * (Age>=85)
0.00008
0.0000
0.00008
0.0000
Model R-square
.9999
Source: Urban Institute calculations from 2004 OCACT mortality projections.
Note: The dependent variable is age-specific life expectancy. Based on the r-square, this model
fully captures the projected increase in life expectancy by cohort. Women younger than age 65
can expect to live 0.06195 years longer than similar women born a year earlier. The life
expectancy difference is 0.07033 years for men.
III.
ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS
The MINT model was not originally envisioned to be a full-scale dynamic
microsimulation model. It was designed to project the baby boom cohorts into
retirement. As such, it does not project birth, education, and home leaving as would
normally be required to generate cohorts not yet born in order to produce a full
implementation population. Instead, this statistical matching algorithm allows us to
generate a reasonable projection of the future population and its retirement income. The
method simply picks projected lifetime histories of simulated cohorts to represent future
cohorts. It does not alter the longitudinal patterns of demographic and economic
variables for these future cohorts.
The advantage of this approach is that the income and demographic projections of
younger cohorts reflect recent trends, while matching the target population size. One
problem with the current methodology is that it understates the size of the future retiree
population because it does not fully account for immigration within new birth cohorts.
For the CPS-based cohorts (born 1973 to 1983), it does not project individuals who will
immigrate after 2003. For the Census projections-based cohorts (born 1984 to 2017), it
does not project immigrants who will immigrate after age 38. Because immigrants have
V-7
CHAPTER 5: EXTENSIONS TO MINT
APRIL 2005
lower average income than native-born Americans, our methods may to some extent
overstate income and understate poverty by not including them. This problem will be
addressed in the next release of MINT.4
Another problem with the current methods is that, as with other demographic and
economic characteristics, we assign the 1973-2017 birth cohorts the retirement behavior
of previous cohorts. The MINT retirement model is a function of Social Security wealth,
as well as other economic, demographic, and health characteristics. Currently we
compute Social Security wealth for the main MINT cohorts (1926-1972) and use the
retirement model to determine their retirement behavior. We then assign the 1973-2017
cohorts the retirement behavior of the 1960-1964 cohorts. The retirement behavior of the
1973-1964 cohorts does not change with changes in expected Social Security benefits.
While we recompute Social Security benefits for the imputed cohorts, these benefits are
based on current law promised amounts. Social Security cannot pay promised benefits
after 2042 (2004 Trustees’ Report). Projected benefits after this date are probably too
high.
An alternative approach would be to compute Social Security wealth for the 19732017 cohorts and use the MINT retirement model to determine their retirement age.
However, even this approach may produce smaller than expected behavioral effects
because only significantly large changes in Social Security wealth have an impact on
retirement behavior in the MINT retirement model.5
Finally, this approach will not capture changes in characteristics of later cohorts
other than through the impact of the matching variables. It will not, for example, change
the labor force participation rates, marriage rates, or divorce rates for the imputed
cohorts—these come from the rates that existed for the donor population.
4
The Urban Institute is currently under contract to produce MINT5. This contract includes a review of the
MINTEX methodology and a extension of the immigrant population to include the MINT4EX cohorts.
5
This is because family wealth (including defined benefit and defined contribution pension wealth from
current and past jobs, Social Security wealth, and other financial wealth, like stocks, bonds, and checking
accounts) has a small positive effect on the decision to retire, while individual retirement incentives
(measured by the maximum increase in pension wealth associated with continued work, in excess of the
value implied by the current wealth accrual) have a small negative effect on the decision to retire. To some
extent, these effects cancel each other out resulting in little behavioral response to changes in Social
Security benefits. (The fact that retirement timing is projected only in full year increments may further
reduce the model’s ability to project timing changes.)
V-8
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 6
SUMMARY OF MODEL RESULTS
I.
OVERVIEW
This chapter summarizes the full MINT4EX projections. It repeats the set of
tables in chapter 4, which summarizes the core MINT4 projections, but this chapter adds
projections from the extended cohorts. It includes the projections of assets and income in
retirement for the 1926 to 2017 cohorts both at age 62 and 67. It also summarizes
retirement income in 1990, 2020, and 2060. The projections for the 1926 to 1972 cohorts
come directly from MINT4. The projections for the 1973 to 2017 cohorts come from the
MINT extension.
The method used to extend MINT4 was developed as a quick means of generating
projections suitable for analyzing Social Security reform options that included personal
accounts both in the near term and when fully implemented. MINT4EX does this, but
has some limitations. It does not hit important OCACT targets for population size, and
disability rates. The base MINT4 projections (1926 to 1973 cohorts) are calibrated to hit
OCACT mortality and disability targets, but we currently performed no disability or
mortality rate calibration for the extended population (1973-2017 cohorts) and disability
rates are slightly higher than OCACT targets. We add no immigrants projected to arrive
in the US past age 38, and project no emigration for the extended cohorts. The lack of
immigrants produces too few individuals in the extended years. Despite these limitations,
MINT4EX does hit the annual OCACT average wage of worker targets in years where
this can be measured.1
Another important complication that MINT4EX has to contend with is the
solvency situation of the Social Security program. This was not a problem in MINT3 or
MINT4, because the last projection year fell before the date at which the system is
projected to become insolvent (2042 in the 2004 Trustees’ Report). In MINT4EX, we
project Social Security benefits after this point assuming that they remain as scheduled
(as opposed to as payable). Readers should be mindful of this simplifying assumption
and interpret the projections of Social Security benefits, and thus total family incomes,
conservatively, considering the estimates as upper bounds.
II.
DEMOGRAPHICS
MINT4EX projects that future retirement cohorts will be better educated, contain
a higher percentage of African-Americans, Hispanic Americans, and other minority
1
Because MINT4EX includes a fixed set of cohorts, it does not represent the full range of workers in all
years of the projection. In early years, MINT4EX excludes old workers (born before 1926) in early years
and young workers (born after 2017) in later years.
VI-1
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
groups, and have proportionately more divorced and never married people than those
turning 62 in the mid-1990s. These trends reflect the differences among birth cohorts in
the initial SIPP population and the impact of the MINT4EX projections of mortality and
changes in marital status. They are summarized in Table 6-1.
Table 6-1. Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and
Year of Birth
Year of Birth
1930-39
1950-59
1970-79
1990-99
2010-17
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
25
57
18
11
61
28
12
58
30
11
57
32
12
55
33
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
80
9
7
4
74
10
9
7
62
12
18
7
57
13
21
9
50
13
26
11
By Gender
Female
Male
53
47
52
48
51
49
51
49
51
49
By Marital Status
Never Married
5
7
Married
75
70
Widowed
9
7
Divorced
12
16
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
11
68
6
15
12
68
5
16
11
70
5
15
Educational attainment improves dramatically among individuals born between
1930 and 1960, and then remains fairly stable for individuals born after 1960. The
proportion of 62-year-olds with less than a high school diploma declines from 25 percent
among the earliest cohorts (those born between 1930 and 1939) to 11 percent for those
born twenty years later. The share of 62-year-olds with a college degree increases from
18 percent among those born in the 1930s to 28 percent for those born 20 years later.
The proportion of 62-year-olds who are college graduates continues to increase for later
cohorts, increasing to 33 percent for those born between 2010 and 2017.
The non-Hispanic White proportion of the population declines steadily, from 80
percent of 62-year-olds born in the 1930s to 50 percent for those born between 2010 and
2017. The proportion that is African-American increases from 9 percent to 13 percent
and Hispanic-Americans increase from 7 percent to 26 percent over the projection period.
Asian-Americans and Native-Americans also account for a larger portion of the later
VI-2
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
retirement cohorts increasing from 4 percent to 11 percent between the earliest and latest
cohort groups.
The combination of marriage and mortality trends causes a noticeable shift in the
family composition of future retirees. Future retirees will have proportionately fewer
married and widowed persons and proportionately more who are never married or
divorced. MINT4EX projects that the proportion of 62-year-olds that is married will fall
from 75 percent for those born in the 1930s to 68 percent for those born in the 1970s.
Also, improvements in mortality will result in fewer widow(er)s at age 62, down from 9
percent of those born in the 1930s to 5 percent of those born in the 2010s. These declines
are offset by increases in the proportion that are never married and divorced. The
proportion of 62-year-olds that is never married more than doubles from 5 percent of the
earliest cohorts to 11 percent of the latest cohorts. The proportion that is divorced will
increase from 12 percent of 62-year-olds born in the 1930s to 16 percent of those born in
the 1950s before it drops to 15 percent of those born in the 2010s.2
III.
HEALTH AND DISABILITY
MINT4EX projects significant improvements in health status at both age 62 and
age 67 between those born in the 1930s and those born in the 1950s. It then worsens
slightly for those born between 2010 and 2017.
Among women, the percent reporting poor health at age 62 is projected to decline
from 31 percent to 27 percent for those born in the 1930s to those born in the 1950s. The
decline at age 67 is also large, from 33 percent to 30 percent. In contrast, health status
among women worsens slightly for those born after 1959 with the percentage of 67-yearold women in poor health increasing to 33 percent for those born between 2010 and 2017.
Among men, the percent reporting poor health is projected to decline for those born in the
1930s to those born in the 1950s from 24 percent to 21 percent at age 62 and from 25
percent to 23 percent at age 67. The percentage then rises for later birth cohorts,
increasing to 25 percent among 67-year-old men born in the 1970s. The improvements in
health between those the 1930s group and the 1950s group reflect, in part, increases in
educational attainment, while the decrease in health for later cohorts reflect the decrease
in the share of non-Hispanic, Whites among the later groups.
2
Appendix Table A6-1a shows detailed breakdown of population characteristics at age 62 by cohort,
education, race and ethnicity, gender, and marital status. Appendix Table A6-1b shows the same results
but at age 67.
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CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-2. Health and Disability Status
Year of Birth
1930-39 1950-59 1970-79 1990-99 2010-17
Percent in Poor Healtha
At age 62:
Female
Male
At age 67:
Female
Male
31
24
27
21
29
23
27
23
30
23
33
25
30
23
31
25
30
25
33
25
11
9
13
12
10
13
16
14
18
17
14
21
17
14
20
10
21
10
11
19
12
14
24
16
15
26
17
16
23
18
Percent receiving Disability Insurance
Benefits at Age 62
(including SSI concurrents):
Total:
Female
Male
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
a/ Percent in fair or poor health.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
In MINT4EX, trends in the incidence of claiming Disability Insurance (DI) are
adjusted to correspond with the projections in the 2004 Trustees' Report for the 1926 to
1972 birth cohorts. There is no calibration for those born after 1972. This produces a
gradual increase in disability prevalence among both men and women at age 62 in the
base MINT cohorts. The model projects a sizable increase in disability prevalence for
both men and women in the extended cohorts. The lack of late arriving immigrants in the
extended population limits the size of the population denominator in the disability rate
calculation and contributes to the increase the calculated disability rates in this group.
Throughout the period, African-Americans maintain rates of disability that are
roughly twice as high as rates for both Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites. The
proportion of Hispanics receiving disability is similar to that of non-Hispanic Whites but
the differences widen slightly with later Hispanic cohorts having slightly higher disability
prevalence than non-Hispanic Whites.3
3
Appendix Table A6-2a shows the percent of men and women expected to be in fair or poor health by age,
gender and cohort. Appendix Table A6-2b shows the percent of individuals expected to receive DI or SSI
at age 62 by gender, race, and cohort.
VI-4
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
IV.
APRIL 2005
RETIREMENT PATTERNS
MINT4EX projects the proportion of men who are retired from the labor force at
ages 62 and 65 to increase between those born in the 1930s and 1970s, but then decrease
slightly for later birth cohorts. The proportion of women who are retired at age 62 also
initially rises, but then declines for later cohorts (see Table 6-3). The change in
retirement rates by cohort should be treated with caution, however, as much of the change
is a result of the definitional change rather than a behavioral change. (MINT4 uses two
definitions of retirement. For early cohorts, retirement is based on a 50 percent or more
decrease in earnings observed in the historic earnings data. For later cohorts, retirement
is based on a drop in hours below 20 hours per week observed in the SIPP data, and the
projections use a model based on the drop in hours definition.) Labor force participation
and Social Security take-up (described below) are measured consistently across cohorts,
making them better measures of retirement trends.
Table 6-3. Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Retired from Work By Age
1930-39
Year of Birth
1950-59
1970-79
1990-99
2010-17
By Age 62
Total
Female
Male
59
65
51
66
71
60
65
67
62
64
67
60
65
68
61
By Age 65
Total
Female
Male
77
81
71
79
81
77
80
79
80
77
77
77
78
78
78
Notes: Retirement is defined as working 20 hours or less or a 50 percent earnings drop; persons not in the
labor force at age 50 are considered retired. Disabled individuals are excluded from table.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
Aggregate Social Security benefit take-up rates are projected to remain fairly
stable over time at ages 62 and 65 (see Table 6-4). Despite this overall stability, there are
noticeable shifts in take-up rates at the bottom and top AIME quintiles. For workers in
the lowest earnings quintile, take-up rates are expected to increase from 57 percent for
those born in the 1930s to 71 percent for those born in the 1990s, and then decline to 70
percent for those born in the 2010s. In contrast, take-up rates at age 62 for the highest
earnings quintile are projected to decrease over the 87-year period by 8 percentage points
(from 47 percent for those born in the 1930s to 39 percent for those born in the 2010s.
The middle quintiles are expected to see slight drops in take-up rates. The increase in
take-up rates among the lowest earners occurs despite the increase in actuarial reduction
factors associated with the increase in the normal retirement age. One can attribute the
higher take-up rates to greater Social Security coverage among all workers and increased
Social Security eligibility among women based on their own earnings, which allows them
VI-5
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
more independence in the take-up decision relative to women without earnings who have
to wait for their husband to take-up Social Security before collecting a benefit.4
Table 6-4. Percent of Each Cohort Who Have Taken Up Social Security Benefits
By Age
1930-39
By Age 62
Total
Female
Male
AIME Quintile
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
By Age 65
Total
Female
Male
AIME Quintile
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
Year of Birth
1950-59
1970-79
1990-99
2010-17
57
59
53
57
63
50
57
61
54
58
62
53
58
61
53
57
66
53
59
47
65
66
60
50
42
68
66
57
53
44
71
69
54
55
40
70
71
57
51
39
92
91
94
90
92
87
90
91
90
91
91
90
90
91
89
82
95
94
95
96
89
95
94
90
81
92
96
91
89
83
95
97
93
87
82
94
97
92
89
79
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
Labor force participation rates at ages 62 and 65 rise markedly between the 1930
and 1950 cohorts, due to increases in female participation in the labor force. Overall
labor force participation rates dip slightly for those born in the 1970s before returning to
prior levels for those born in the 2010s. Over the 87-year period, female labor force
participation rate continue to rise with each successive cohort group while men’s rates
generally decrease over time. These results are summarized in Table 6-5.
4
Appendix Table A6-3a shows more detailed projections of retirement age by gender and cohort.
Appendix Table A6-3b shows more detailed projections of Social Security benefit take-up age by gender
and cohort. Appendix Table A6-3c shows more detailed projections of Social Security take-up by AIME
quintile and cohort.
VI-6
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-5. Percentage of Workers with Positive Earningsa by Age
Year of Birth
1930-39 1950-59 1970-79 1990-99 2010-17
By Age 62
Total
Female
Male
All Beneficiaries
Female Beneficiary
Male Beneficiary
By Age 65
Total
Female
Male
All Beneficiaries
Female Beneficiary
Male Beneficiary
62
53
73
68
63
73
65
63
67
70
67
73
69
66
71
53
45
64
54
53
55
54
56
53
58
59
57
57
58
55
43
36
52
47
43
52
47
45
49
49
46
53
48
45
52
43
37
52
44
40
47
43
41
45
45
42
49
44
41
47
a/ Table is limited to non-institutionalized workers (have earnings after age 50) who never get DI
benefits. Total includes both Social Security beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries. Beneficiaries include
only old age and survivor beneficiaries.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
Social Security beneficiaries often remain in the labor force even after beginning
to collect their benefits. In fact, over half of beneficiaries at age 62 remain active in the
labor force for all retirement groups. This number drops to slightly below half for
beneficiaries at age 65. The proportion of Social Security female beneficiaries who
remain in the labor force at age 62 is projected to increase from 45 percent for those born
in the 1930s to 58 percent for those born in the 2010s, while male beneficiary
participation is projected to fall from 64 percent for those born in the 1930s to 53 percent
for men born in the 1970s. Male beneficiary labor force participation then rises to 55
percent for men born in the 2010s. The labor force participation rate for 65-year-old
beneficiaries, on the other hand, remains relatively constant. A continued decline in labor
force participation rates for men is equally offset by an increase in participation for
women.5
5
Appendix tables A5-4a and A5-4b show more detailed projections of labor force participation. Table A64a includes individuals who never work from age 50 and older; Table A6-4b excludes them. Table A6-4c
shows the employment status and earnings by benefit type (DI, OASI, none) at age 62. MINT4EX appears
to project substantial increases in work effort among non-beneficiaries. This is partly due to an increase in
Social Security coverage rates and worker eligibility, where a larger share of non-beneficiaries in early
cohorts were retired from non-covered employment or not qualified for Social Security under their own
work history compared to later cohorts, and partly due to the projection process, which tends to assign a
very low number for annual earnings rather than a zero to someone who is essentially out of the labor force.
VI-7
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
V.
APRIL 2005
PENSION COVERAGE
Table 6-6 summarizes pension coverage projections at age 62 by year of birth and
coverage type. MINT4EX projects that pension coverage at age 62 will decline from 60
to 57 percent between individuals born in the 1930s to those born in the 2010s. The
decline in pension coverage occurs despite higher labor force participation among women
in the later cohorts compared to the earlier cohorts.
MINT4EX projects that job-based pension (DB or DC) coverage will increase
slightly over time and the mix in pension type will shift away from defined benefit
pensions to defined contribution pensions. MINT4EX does not project any new IRA
accounts beyond those observed on the base SIPP data, nor does it project IRA roll-overs
from DC accounts. As a result, IRA coverage rates decline for later cohorts and DC
coverage rates probably increase more than they otherwise would, with the net effect on
coverage rates unclear for later cohorts.
MINT4EX projects that overall employment pension coverage rates (DB or DC)
for 62-year-olds will increase from 47 percent for individuals born in the 1930s to 54
percent for those born in the 1970s. DB coverage rates will decrease from 46 percent for
the 1930s cohorts to 31 percent for the 2010s cohorts, while DC coverage rates increase
from 3 percent to 38 percent across the same period. The rate of dual coverage (have
both DB and DC pension plans) is projected to increase from 2 percent of 62-year-olds
born in the 1930s to 16 percent of 62-year-olds born in the 2010s. The rise in dual
coverage reflects, in part, the increase in job changes among later cohorts compared to
earlier cohorts, which increases the probability of having multiple pension types, and the
increase in employers that provided dual coverage. The rise in job-based coverage rates
reflects mostly an increase in female coverage arising from increased female labor force
participation. Male coverage rates are projected to range between 55 and 58 percent over
time.
Pension coverage is higher for high earners than for low earners, and coverage
rates within lifetime earning quintiles are projected to change over time. MINT4EX
projects that job-based coverage rates among low earners will decline slightly between
the 1930s cohorts and the 1950s cohorts (from 19 percent to 17 percent for the bottom
earnings quintile) and then rise dramatically (to 31 percent) for the 1970s cohorts.
Coverage in the top earnings group, on the other hand, will increase slightly between
1930s and 1950s cohorts (from 67 percent to 76 percent) and then fall slightly for later
cohorts (to 74 percent).6 The increase at the bottom of the AIME distribution reflects
increased pension coverage of women as they become more strongly attached to the labor
market over time.
6
Appendix Table A6-6a shows pension coverage by pension type, gender, and cohort. Appendix Table
A6-6b shows the same by AIME quintile and cohort.
VI-8
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-6. Pension Coverage at Age 62
1930-39
All Individuals at Age 62
Any coverage (DB, DC, or IRA)
DB or DC coverage
DB coverage
DC coverage
IRA coverage
DB or DC
Total
Female
Male
Bottom AIME Quintile
Second AIME Quintile
Third AIME Quintile
Fourth AIME Quintile
Top AIME Quintile
Year of Birth
1950-59
1970-79
1990-99
2010-17
60%
47
46
3
25
58%
50
35
29
19
58%
54
33
39
10
58%
53
32
37
11
57%
53
31
38
11
47
37
58
50
45
55
54
51
58
53
51
55
53
50
56
19
34
56
62
67
17
34
54
68
76
31
44
57
65
74
26
41
59
66
74
27
40
56
66
75
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
VI.
RETIREMENT WEALTH
MINT4EX projects that future retirement cohorts will enjoy greater retirement
wealth than earlier retirement cohorts have had, with wealth peaking for the 62-year-olds
born in the 1990s and falling slightly thereafter (see Table 6-7). The increase comes from
substantial growth of both assets in defined contribution pension plans, including IRAs,
and financial wealth outside of pension plans. The top five percent of the wealth
distribution among all cohorts has a large share of both forms of wealth. Over time, DC
account balances comprise a rising fraction of total financial wealth. Home ownership
rates fall slightly for married couples but increase for singles. Despite the increasing
home ownership rate of singles, they still have lower ownership rates than couples. The
aggregate trend is dominated by the couple trend, as married couples still represent the
bulk of 62-year-olds, and total home ownership rates decline over time. Housing equity
rises for 62-year-olds born in the 1930s to those born in the 1950s, and equity falls for
subsequent cohorts.
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CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-7. Mean Wealth of Retirement Cohorts at Age 62
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
1930-39
Year of Birth
1950-59 1970-79 1990-99
2010-17
Financial Assets (per capita)
Entire Sample (mean)
Total
Defined Contribution Plans (including
IRAs)
Non-pension Financial Wealth
7.8
11.6
11.8
13.2
12.2
0.7
7.1
1.5
10.1
1.5
10.3
1.6
11.6
1.7
10.5
2.7
4.6
4.4
4.8
4.9
0.6
2.1
1.3
3.3
1.3
3.1
1.4
3.4
1.4
3.5
Housing Wealth (per capita)
All Units
Portion with Positive Housing Wealth
Mean Wealth
Mean Wealth of Those of Having Wealth
75%
1.6
2.1
75%
1.8
2.4
72%
1.5
2.1
70%
1.6
2.3
69%
1.6
2.3
Married Persons
Portion with Positive Housing Wealth
Mean Wealth
Mean Wealth of Those of Having Wealth
83%
1.6
1.9
80%
1.8
2.3
75%
1.5
2.0
73%
1.6
2.2
73%
1.6
2.1
Bottom 95% of wealth distribution (mean)
Total
Defined Contribution Plans (including
IRAs)
Non-pension Financial Wealth
Single Individuals
Portion with Positive Housing Wealth
Mean Wealth
Mean Wealth of Those of Having Wealth
53%
65%
66%
62%
1.5
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.9
3.3
3.0
3.0
Notes: Asset and equity values are per capita amounts. Husbands and wives split total couple assets.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
61%
1.7
2.8
Sixty-two-year-olds born in the 1930s had, on average, financial assets equal to
7.8 times the average wage ($274,000 in $2004 dollars). The average rises to 13.2 times
the average wage for 62-year-olds born in the 1990s and then falls to 12.2 times for those
born in the 2010s. The wealthiest households own a large share of the total assets of each
cohort. This is illustrated in the second set of financial wealth numbers in Table 6-7,
which repeat the earlier calculations but exclude from each cohort the wealthiest five
percent of individuals. When the wealthiest five percent are excluded, average total
assets decrease by about 60 percent and the growth of DC pension plans becomes
relatively more important as a source of growth of financial wealth in general. Excluding
the top 5 percent of wealth holders, DC plans grow from about 21 percent of total
financial wealth among 62-year-old born in the 1930s to 29 percent for those born in the
2010s.
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CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Home ownership projections present a mixed picture. Among married couples,
home ownership rates are projected to decline over time. Rates fall from 83 percent of
62-year-olds born in the 1930s to 73 percent for those born in the 2010s. Mean per capita
housing wealth among married homeowners is projected to rise from 1.9 times the
average wage for those born in the 1930s to 2.3 times the average wage for those born in
the 1950 and then fall back to 2.1 times the average wage for those born in the 2010s.
These trends reflect differences in initial housing values and in projected lifetime
earnings levels among couples.7
MINT4EX projects a more optimistic situation for single 62-year-olds. It projects
that homeownership rates will increase across the successive retirement cohorts from 53
percent among those born in the 1930s to 66 percent among those born in the 1970s
before it declines to 61 percent among those born in the 2010s. The mean value of
housing equity as a percent of the average wage among homeowners is projected to rise
from 2.9 times the average wage for those born in the 1930s to 3.3 for those born in the
1950s and then fall to 2.8 times the average wage for those born in the 2010s. On a per
capita basis, married couples have lower home equity compared to singles, but on a
household basis, home equity is higher for married couples than for singles.
Table 6-8 shows the distribution of different forms of wealth among wealth
groups. Less than half of individuals born in the 1930s are projected to have a DC
pension plan balance when they reached age 62. DC plan balances are concentrated
among the wealthiest individuals. Among 62-year-olds born in the 1930s, the individual
at the 95th percentile held over 4 times the DC assets held by the individual at the 80th
percentile and 5.5 times the cohort average. Because of increasing DC coverage rates,
the concentration decreases slightly over time. Among those born in the 1950s, more
than half of families at age 62 will have a retirement account and the individual at the 95th
percentile will hold 3.7 times the amount held by the individual at the 80th percentile and
5.1 times the cohort average.
Both housing wealth and non-pension financial wealth are distributed somewhat
more equally than is DC pension wealth for 62-year-olds born in the 1930s, but this
relationship changes over time. MINT4EX projects both non-pension wealth and home
equity to become more unequally distributed over time. Among the 62-year-olds born in
7
Appendix tables A5-6a through A5-6d show more detailed wealth breakdowns by age and cohort. Tables
A5-6a and A5-6c include all wealth holders. Tables A5-6b and A5-6d exclude the top five percent of
wealth holders to eliminate outliers.
VI-11
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-8. Mean Per Capita Wealth at Age 62 at Different Points in the Wealth
Distribution
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
(Percentiles apply to each form of wealth)
Born 1930-1939
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Born 1950-1959
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Born 1970-1979
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Born 1990-1999
DC pension wealth
Non pension wealth
Total financial wealth
Housing wealth
Mean
Wealth
20th
Percentile
50th
Percentile
80th
Percentile
90th
Percentile
95th
Percentile
0.89
7.15
7.80
1.55
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.80
1.19
1.06
1.22
4.76
6.11
2.50
3.19
9.17
10.74
3.58
4.91
15.55
17.42
5.10
1.44
10.13
11.63
1.91
0.00
0.18
0.35
0.18
0.09
1.22
2.07
0.91
2.00
6.35
9.53
2.72
4.51
15.15
18.88
4.52
7.36
31.98
35.98
6.86
1.44
10.33
11.85
1.67
0.00
0.23
0.48
0.14
0.29
1.23
2.31
0.72
2.06
5.54
8.61
2.19
3.99
13.23
17.17
3.86
6.70
28.85
34.57
6.33
1.51
11.65
13.24
1.69
0.00
0.21
0.45
0.12
0.24
1.23
2.22
0.72
1.98
6.06
9.68
2.19
4.01
15.26
19.52
3.92
7.31
34.50
38.66
6.31
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
the 1930s, the individual in the 95th percentile has 3.3 times more non-pension financial
wealth than the individual at the 80th percentile. Among the 62-year-olds born in the
2010s, this ratio increases to 5.7. The ratio of the 95th percentile to the 80th percentile
home equity is projected to rise from 2.0 for the 1930s cohorts to 2.9 for the 2010s
cohorts.8
VII. INCOME AT AGE 62
MINT4EX projects that average per capita income at age 62 relative to the
economy-wide average wage will rise between those born in the 1930s and those born in
8
Appendix Table A6-7 shows wealth distributions for all retirement cohorts.
VI-12
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
the 1950s. Average per capita income then falls for cohorts born in the 1970s before it
rises again for those born in the 2010s (see Table 6-9). From an average of 97 percent of
the average wage among the earliest cohorts, per capita income is projected to rise to 112
percent for the 1950s cohorts before dropping back to 103 percent for the 1970s cohorts.
Average per capita income then rises back to 109 percent of the average wage for cohorts
born in the 2010s. (In order to insulate the income trends from the effect of changes
among a few outliners, these calculations exclude the records of the five percent of the
sample in each cohort that had the highest per capita income from assets.)
Increases in relative per capita income relative to the average wage between those
born in the 1930s and the 1950s are the result of increases in income from financial assets
(including DC pension and IRA balances), and earnings. These increases are offset
partially by a significant reduction in income from defined benefit pensions. MINT4EX
projects that income from financial assets will rise from an average of 14 percent of the
average wage among 62-year-olds born in the 1930s to 22 percent of the average wage
among those born in the 1950s. It is important to keep in mind that only about half of
individuals have retired and taken up Social Security at age 62.9 The relative values of
earnings, Social Security, and pension income reflect the mixed employment status of 62year-olds.
The decline per capita income relative to the average wage at age 62 for
individuals born in the 1970s results from a decline in DB pensions and earned income.
Average per capita earnings declines by 8 percent, from 62 percent of the average wage
in the 1950s cohorts to 57 percent of the average wage in 1970s cohorts. This reflects a
decline in employment rates at age 62 for 1970s cohorts compared to 1950s cohorts.
Pension income continues to fall over the same time period, and there is also a slight
projected decrease in income received from financial assets, while income from Social
Security and housing assets remain steady.
Between the 1930s and 1950s cohorts, average relative per capita income
increases regardless of marital status, with the income of divorced individuals increasing
by 30 percent over the time period due mainly to increases in earned income and a near
doubling of financial assets.10 However, relative per capita income falls for all marital
groups for those born in the 1970s, but it falls less sharply for divorced and widowed 62year-olds. During this period, DB pension income generally decreases more than
financial income increases—DC pension income is not fully replacing the lost DB
pension income. After the 1970s cohorts, the decline in DB pension income slows.
Married couple incomes grow through increased earnings, while incomes of the never
married decline as their earnings fall.
9
Readers should also bear in mind that Social Security benefits are not constrained to the level payable
under current law in these analyses.
10
Detailed cross tabulations by cohort and income source for each gender, marital status, ethnic group,
education level, and AIME quintile at age 62 are shown in appendix tables A5-8a to A5-8f.
VI-13
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-9. Per Capita Income at Age 62 by Year of Birth
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Year of Birth
1930-39
0.97
1950-59
1.12
1970-79
1.03
1990-99
1.08
2010-17
1.09
By Source:
Social Security Benefits
Financial Assets
Defined Benefit Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.51
0.04
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
0.15
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.60
0.04
0.15
0.24
0.06
0.61
0.04
By Gender:
Female
Male
0.90
1.06
1.05
1.20
1.00
1.07
1.05
1.11
1.08
1.11
By Marital Status:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
0.79
1.02
0.78
0.88
0.94
1.16
0.94
1.12
0.87
1.06
0.93
1.06
0.80
1.13
1.01
1.08
0.81
1.14
1.05
1.11
By Race/Ethnicity:
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
1.05
0.73
0.59
1.24
0.82
0.69
1.17
0.72
0.78
1.22
0.76
0.90
1.23
0.82
0.92
By Education Level:
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
0.57
0.95
1.70
0.44
0.95
1.79
0.48
0.85
1.67
0.51
0.86
1.74
0.49
0.86
1.78
By AIME Quintile:
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
0.22
0.54
0.85
1.21
2.36
0.22
0.56
0.92
1.46
2.86
0.22
0.50
0.82
1.32
2.72
0.23
0.51
0.86
1.39
2.86
0.22
0.50
0.85
1.37
3.00
All Individuals
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
VI-14
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Non-Hispanic Whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics all experience an
increase in average per capita income at age 62 between the 1930s and 1950s cohorts.
Between the 1950s and 1970s cohorts, however, average relative per capita income of
Hispanics continues to rise, while average relative per capita incomes of non-Hispanic
Whites and African-Americans fall. During this period, each group sees a rise in
financial income, which is partially offset by a decline in DB pension income. Social
Security benefits relative to the average wage remain fairly stable in all race groups
between the 1930s and 1950s cohorts, but they fluctuate more for African-Americans
than other race groups. Whites and Hispanics see gains in average per capita income
between the 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s cohorts, while income of African-Americans falls
behind. While earnings at age 62 of African-Americans are projected to rise between
those born in the 1930s to the 1950s, their projected earnings drop significantly for those
born after 1960.
While average relative per capita total income at age 62 fluctuates across cohorts,
this fluctuation is dominated by the projections of college-educated 62-year-olds.
Average relative per capita income of high school graduates declines from the 1930s
cohorts to the 2010s cohorts. Average relative per capita income of high school dropouts
declines markedly between the 1930s and 1950s cohorts. Dropouts see some gains
between the 1950s and 1970s cohorts, but they still lag behind other education groups
and see no long-term improvement in relative economic well-being. Average per capita
income of 62-year-old college graduates rises, falls, and rises again across cohorts. This
fluctuation is dominated by their earnings, which continue to be a major source of income
of 62-year-olds.
Most of the changes in relative per capita income of 62-year-olds occur in the top
two lifetime earnings quintiles. Between the 1930s and 1950s cohorts, per capita income
in the top earnings quintile is projected to increase from 2.4 times the average wage to 2.9
times the average wage. Per capita income then falls to 2.7 times the average wage for
top earners in the 1970s cohorts before it rises to over 3 times the average wage for top
earners in the 2010s cohorts. Over the same time period, per capita income for those in
the bottom earnings quintile is projected to fluctuate between 0.22 and 0.23 times the
average wage. For individuals in the bottom earnings quintile, per capita income is
dominated by trends in relative Social Security benefits, while per capita income in the
upper quintiles is dominated by relative earned income. Over half (55 percent) of per
capita income of 62-year-olds in the bottom lifetime earnings quintile comes from Social
Security, while it represents only 4 percent for the top earners. About 16 percent of per
capita income at age 62 comes from earnings for those in the bottom lifetime earnings,
while it represents 65 percent of per capita income for top lifetime earners.
VIII. INCOME AT AGE 67
Average per capita income at age 67 for each cohort and for most subgroups
within each cohort are lower than those among the same subgroup at age 62, largely
because of sharply reduced levels of earnings that are only partially offset by higher
VI-15
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
average Social Security benefits and slightly higher income from most other sources
(Table 6-10). Average per capita income among 67-year-olds born in the 1930s is 78
percent of the average wage. It rises to 86 percent of the average wage for those born in
the 1950s, but falls back to 84 percent for those born in the 1970s. Average per capita
income then rises again to 85 percent of the average wage for those born in the 2010s.
(In order to insulate the income trends from the effect of changes among a few outliers,
these calculations exclude the records of the five percent of the sample in each cohort that
had the highest per capita income.)
Most of the differences among cohorts and subgroups that were observed at age
62 can also be observed at age 67. As is the case at age 62, the improvement between the
1930s and 1950s cohorts can be traced primarily to higher incomes from financial assets,
partially offset by declines in income from defined benefit pensions. In the case of 67year-olds, however, there is also a small increase in average income from Social Security
benefits between those born in the 1930s and those born in the 1950s. Social Security
benefits are the most important source of income for 67-year-olds in all cohorts, replacing
earnings as the most important source at age 62.11 The financial condition at age 67 of
persons born in the 1970s deteriorates relative to those born in the 1950s, before it rises
again for those born in the 1990s and 2010s. The deterioration among those born in the
1970s is due to reductions in all income sources other than earnings. Comparing the
1930s and 1950s cohorts, the most dramatic improvements in mean income occur among
the college educated, non-Hispanic Whites, and those in the top lifetime earnings
quintiles. These groups also tend to experience a decline in income between the 1950s
and 1970s cohorts.12 One exception is among 67-year-old Hispanics, whose average per
capita income is projected to increase for successive cohort groups over the 87-year
period.
IX.
LIVING ARRANGEMENTS AND SSI BENEFITS
Living arrangements and SSI benefits at age 67 are summarized in Table 6-11.
MINT4EX projects that about 86 percent of individuals in all MINTEX cohorts will live
independently at age 67. High school dropouts, African-Americans, and never married
individuals are much less likely to live independently than other individuals, with less
than 80 percent of each of these respective groups living on their own. Men are more
likely to live independently than are women, and among both men and women, married
couples are the most likely to be independent, while never married persons are the least
likely.
11
Again, readers should bear in mind that Social Security benefits may be overstatements in later cohorts
due to the system’s long-term financing problems.
12
Detailed cross tabulations by cohort and income source for each marital status, ethnic group, and AIME
quintile at age 67 are shown in appendix tables A5-9a through A5-9f.
VI-16
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-10. Per Capita Income at Age 67 by Year of Birth
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Year of Birth
1930-39
1950-59
1970-79
1990-99
2010-17
All Individuals
0.78
0.86
0.84
0.85
0.85
By Source:
Social Security Benefits
Financial Assets
Defined Benefit Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.28
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.26
0.24
0.08
0.21
0.05
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.27
0.27
0.08
0.19
0.04
By Gender:
Female
Male
0.75
0.83
0.84
0.89
0.81
0.87
0.83
0.87
0.84
0.86
By Marital Status:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
0.68
0.81
0.73
0.72
0.71
0.88
0.84
0.87
0.72
0.87
0.82
0.81
0.65
0.90
0.86
0.80
0.67
0.88
0.86
0.83
By Race/Ethnicity:
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
0.85
0.57
0.50
0.96
0.62
0.55
0.92
0.59
0.63
0.95
0.64
0.71
0.97
0.62
0.71
By Education Level:
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
0.49
0.80
1.18
0.37
0.78
1.26
0.42
0.71
1.29
0.43
0.71
1.28
0.41
0.70
1.30
By AIME Quintile:
Bottom
Second
Third
Fourth
Top
0.23
0.48
0.73
1.04
1.67
0.23
0.47
0.73
1.12
2.07
0.23
0.44
0.67
1.05
2.13
0.23
0.43
0.67
1.09
2.17
0.22
0.42
0.65
1.09
2.23
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
VI-17
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-11. Living Arrangements and SSI Recipiency at Age 67
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
By Gender/Marital Status
Female:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
Male:
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
Year of Birth
1926-29
1930-39
1940-49
1950-59
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-17
% Living
Independently
(All)
%
Eligible
for SSI
SSI
Take
Up
Rate
Average
SSI
Benefita
% Living
Independent
ly (SSI
Recipients)
86
2.0
82
0.10
69
79
86
90
8.0
1.5
0.3
88
75
81
0.11
0.10
0.11
70
68
69
89
79
82
81
1.2
3.9
2.6
4.7
79
82
84
86
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.14
82
61
59
64
84
69
87
84
83
88
75
89
86
90
2.4
5.6
1.1
4.5
3.7
1.5
6.9
0.9
1.2
1.6
82
75
76
87
89
81
87
77
78
78
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.09
0.10
69
60
70
69
74
68
68
63
82
79
83
85
86
86
86
86
87
87
86
85
5.7
6.3
4.7
3.4
2.5
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
100
83
76
79
85
84
75
81
72
74
0.14
0.11
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.07
61
69
69
75
73
66
48
50
69
65
a/ Ratio of mean SSI benefit to average wage.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
MINT4EX projects that about 5.7 percent of the 67-year-olds born in the late
1920s were eligible for SSI. This percent declines with successive cohort groups,
VI-18
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
because SSI program parameters are either not indexed or indexed only to changes in
prices.13 For 67-year-olds born in the 2010, only 0.3 percent will be eligible for SSI.
High school dropouts and never married persons are more likely to be eligible for SSI
than other groups. Hispanic and African-American individuals are also more likely to be
eligible for SSI than are non-Hispanic White individuals.
Of those that are eligible for SSI at age 67, 82 percent are expected to take up
their benefit. Non-Hispanic Whites have lower take up rates compared with Hispanics
and African-Americans, as do males relative to females.
Among those drawing benefits, average SSI benefit at age 67 is 0.1 times the
average wage, and benefits vary little among subgroups. Benefits, however, decline over
time due to lack of indexing from 0.14 times the average wage for 67-year-olds born in
the late 1920s to 0.07 times the average wage for those born in the 2010s.
X.
INCOME IN 2020
MINT4EX tracks the annual income of people born from 1926 to 2013 from age
62 for as long as they are projected to live, simulating the spend down of their
accumulated assets, their changes in marital status – particularly changes resulting from
the death of a spouse, changes in labor force behavior and earnings, and the cost of living
adjustments in their private and public pension plans.14 The result is a snapshot of the
population age 62 through 89 in the year 2020 that is summarized in Table 6-12.15 Many
of the patterns seen in this table were also visible in the analysis of incomes at age 62 or
age 67.
Per capita income of the aged population in 2020, not including co-resident
income, averages 86 percent of the average wage. About 30 percent of this income is
derived from Social Security benefits, income from assets account for 29 percent of
income, while earnings accounts for nearly one quarter of total income. DB pensions and
housing assets were of less importance, together comprising another 17 percent of per
capita income.
13
We use historic values up to year 2000. SSI state supplement growth rates vary by state and in some
cases are inversely related to the federal benefit. State SSI growth rates are based on the change between
the 1999 and 2000 state supplement amounts. We assume federal benefits increase by CPI.
14
These projections include backcasted values for pensions, financial assets, and home equity before the
SIPP interview date for individuals older than 62 in 1996. Social Security, SSI, and earnings are available
from the administrative data.
15
These results exclude the wealthiest five percent. Had this group been included, financial assets and
earned income would account for a much larger portion of per capita income than they do in Table 6-12.
Furthermore, income inequality between the top and bottom quintiles worsens. Per capita income results
including the top five percent of wealth holders can be found in appendix Table A6-12b.
VI-19
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-12. Per Capita Income in 2020 of Persons Aged 62-89
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage) a
Percent of
Individuals
100%
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
13
High School Graduate
62
College Graduate
26
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
76
African-American
10
Hispanic
8
Other
6
By Gender
Female
57
Male
43
By Marital Status
Never Married
6
Married
60
Widowed
18
Divorced
16
By Age
62 to 64
20
65 to 69
28
70 to 74
22
75 to 79
14
80 to 84
9
85 to 89
6
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
84
DI Recipient
3
SSI Recipient
3
Non-beneficiary
10
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
21
Second quintile
21
Third quintile
21
Fourth quintile
21
Top quintile
16
Total
Incomeb
Social
Security
Benefits
DB
Pensions
Other
Financial
Wealth
Earnings
Imputed
Rental
Income
0.86
0.26
0.10
0.25
0.20
0.05
0.40
0.79
1.25
0.17
0.26
0.30
0.04
0.09
0.16
0.08
0.22
0.40
0.08
0.17
0.31
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.95
0.61
0.52
0.63
0.27
0.24
0.20
0.16
0.11
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.29
0.09
0.10
0.18
0.21
0.17
0.13
0.19
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.82
0.91
0.27
0.25
0.09
0.10
0.24
0.27
0.16
0.24
0.05
0.05
0.75
0.90
0.78
0.84
0.22
0.25
0.29
0.28
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.20
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.05
1.03
0.86
0.79
0.80
0.78
0.80
0.18
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.26
0.29
0.31
0.49
0.19
0.11
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.86
0.75
0.17
1.08
0.29
0.27
0.06
0.03
0.11
0.06
0.00
0.05
0.27
0.19
0.00
0.23
0.14
0.18
0.00
0.74
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.04
0.22
0.47
0.72
1.12
2.07
0.15
0.26
0.29
0.30
0.32
0.01
0.05
0.09
0.14
0.24
0.02
0.07
0.16
0.36
0.77
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.26
0.64
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.11
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
VI-20
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
These averages are not representative of all individuals, however, as income
levels and the relative importance of income sources vary widely for different subsets of
the population. This is especially apparent when examining the per capita income of
individuals based on educational attainment, income quintile, and age. MINT4EX
projects the income of college graduates to be over three times that of high school
dropouts and nearly 60 percent higher than high school graduates. Projected per capita
income in 2020 for Non-Hispanic Whites is about 60 percent higher than per capita
income for other ethnic groups, and married individuals are expected to have about 20
percent higher per capita income compared to never married individuals. Per capita
income is also higher for younger individuals compare to older individuals with 62-yearolds having about 30 percent more income than 89-year-olds. Individuals in the highest
income quintile have more than 9 times the retirement income as those in the bottom
income quintile.
Furthermore, the income sources also vary by subgroup. Social Security is a
larger share of total income for individuals in lower socio-economic groups such as high
school dropouts, African-Americans, and those in the bottom income quintile. Earnings
represent a larger share of total income for younger individuals compared to older
individuals, while Social Security represents a larger share of total income for older
individuals compared to younger individuals. Earnings also represent a larger share of
total income for individuals in the highest income quintile. DB pension income is a
larger source of income for older individuals compared to younger individuals, reflecting
the higher DB coverage rates among workers in earlier cohorts compared to later cohorts.
Older individuals also have more income from financial assets, reflecting both mortality
bias (poorer individuals are more likely to die before reaching old age) and inheritance of
assets among old age survivors.
XI.
CO-RESIDENT INCOME
Non-spouse co-resident family members are often an important source of income
for older individuals. MINT4EX projects that 14 percent of 62- to 89-year-olds will coreside in 2020 (see Table 6-13). The proportion of individuals who co-reside is expected
to decrease from 16 to 12 percent for persons age 62 to 84. At later ages, one might
expect to see an increase in the fraction of individuals who co-reside, resulting from a
greater need for assistance due to poor health and declining financial circumstances later
on in life. This does not occur, however. The decline in co-residers, then, may be the
result of co-residing children leaving the household. Nevertheless, older individuals’
greater need for assistance does becomes evident upon examination of the income of coresident family members, which rises from 73 percent of the average wage for 62- to 64olds to 89 percent of the average wage for 80- to 84-year olds.
Individuals in the bottom per capita income quintile are more likely to co-reside
than those in the top per capita income quintile (22 percent versus 11 percent); however,
for the most part, the income of the co-resident members is lower among the wealthier
aged than poorer aged. This reflects both the need of the co-resider and the ability of the
VI-21
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
co-resident family to support the aged individual. Using the poverty threshold to adjust
income for family size, the income of co-resident family members improves the
economic position of those in the lower income quintiles, but reduces slightly the
economic position of the highest income group. Co-resident income among those in the
bottom per capita income quintile raises family income relative to poverty from 1.2 to 2.9
while co-resident income reduces family income relative to poverty from 12.3 to 11.1 for
those in the top per capita income quintile. It is important to consider, however, that coresidence is not always based on need. In many cases co-residence is the family social
norm.
Table 6-13. Income of Co-resident Family Members in 2020 of Co-residing
Individualsa
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
Per Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
Second quintile
Third quintile
Fourth quintile
Top quintile
By Age
62 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
Percent
Coresiding
Income of
Coresident
Family
Membersb
Family
Income/Poverty
(Exclude Coresident
Income)
Family
Income/Poverty
(Include Coresident
Income)
14
0.77
4.3
5.3
24
14
11
0.88
0.74
0.75
2.1
4.0
7.6
3.7
5.1
7.6
11
22
22
28
0.69
0.71
0.94
1.09
5.1
3.3
2.8
3.6
5.8
4.6
4.0
4.5
22
14
13
11
11
0.80
0.78
0.75
0.75
0.77
1.2
2.7
4.2
6.7
12.3
2.9
4.2
5.2
7.1
11.1
16
15
13
14
12
13
0.73
0.77
0.79
0.75
0.89
0.84
5.4
4.0
4.3
3.9
4.1
3.2
6.0
4.9
5.3
5.0
5.4
4.7
a/ Includes all co-residing individuals including the top 5 percent of wealth holders.
b/ Total income of co-resident family members other than a spouse divided by the average wage.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
Including co-resident income in the measure of well-being increases family
income divided by poverty for all education and racial groups, but it increases family
well-being more for lower-educated individuals compared to higher-educated individuals,
VI-22
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
for African-American and Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic Whites, and for older
individuals compared to younger individuals.
XII. INCOME IN 2060
Per capita total income of the aged population in 2060, not including co-resident
income average, averages 88 percent of the average wage (see Table 6-14). About 30
percent of this income is derived from Social Security benefits, income from assets
account for 36 percent, while earnings accounts for about 19 percent of total income. DB
pensions and housing assets were of less importance, together comprising another 15
percent of per capita income. The relative average per capita income in 2020 and 2060
are very similar (86 versus 88 percent of the average wage respectively), but the share by
income source changes. The share of total income from DB pensions and earnings are
lower in 2060 than in 2020 and the financial asset income, which includes income from
DC account balances, is higher. (Individuals with financial asset income in the top 5th
percentile are excluded from the table to mitigate the effect of outliers on mean statistics).
The population in 2060 is more racially and ethnically diverse, more educated,
and older than the population in 2020. The 2060 population is also more likely to never
have been married. These trends occur solely though reweighting the population that
occurs in the cloning procedure described in chapter 5.16
XIII. POVERTY
Table 6-15 shows the characteristics of the population age 62 to 89, the average
per capita income, and percent of the population in poverty in the early 1990s, 2020, and
2060. Earnings and initial Social Security benefits are indexed to wage growth, while
SSI and poverty thresholds are indexed to price growth. Years of persistent real wage
growth will inevitably increase incomes relative to the price-adjusted poverty threshold
and lower poverty rates. MINT4EX assumes a 1.1 percent annual real wage growth,
consistent with the 2004 OCACT economic assumptions.
The average per capita income between 2020 and 2060 within subgroup are very
similar. This comparison highlights the limitations of the cloning method to project any
substantial change in income within subgroup. While per capita incomes are similar, the
poverty rates are very different. Poverty rates among 62- to 89-year-olds are projected to
decline from 7.8 percent in the early 1990s to 5.2 percent in 2020 and 1.6 percent in
2060. The erosion of the poverty thresholds relative to wage growth mean that fewer
aged individuals will be in poverty by 2060 than in earlier years. The poverty rates in
16
Appendix tables A5-14a through A5-14e show more detailed income breakdowns by age and cohort.
Tables A5-14a, A5-14c, A5-14d, and A5-14c include all wealth holders. Table A6-14b excludes the top
five percent of wealth holders to eliminate outliers.
VI-23
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-14. Per Capita Income in 2060 of Persons Aged 62-89
(Ratio of Income to the Economy-Wide Average Wage) a
All
By Education Attainment
High School Dropout
High School Graduate
College Graduate
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
African-American
Hispanic
Other
By Gender
Female
Male
By Marital Status
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
By Age
62 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
DI Recipient
SSI Recipient
Non-beneficiary
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
Second quintile
Third quintile
Fourth quintile
Top quintile
Percent of
Individuals
Total
Incomeb
Social
Security
Benefits
DB
Pensions
Other
Financial
Wealth
Earnings
Imputed
Rental
Income
100
0.88
0.26
0.09
0.31
0.17
0.05
10
58
32
0.41
0.70
1.36
0.19
0.25
0.32
0.02
0.06
0.17
0.10
0.22
0.54
0.08
0.13
0.26
0.02
0.04
0.08
61
12
19
7
0.99
0.61
0.70
0.89
0.28
0.23
0.23
0.26
0.10
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.38
0.17
0.21
0.31
0.18
0.12
0.16
0.19
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.06
57
43
0.87
0.90
0.27
0.25
0.10
0.08
0.31
0.32
0.14
0.21
0.05
0.04
11
56
17
15
0.65
0.92
0.91
0.85
0.23
0.25
0.31
0.28
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.06
0.22
0.32
0.37
0.30
0.12
0.21
0.05
0.16
0.03
0.04
0.07
0.05
15
24
20
17
13
10
1.06
0.83
0.88
0.86
0.85
0.79
0.18
0.26
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.27
0.07
0.08
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.06
0.26
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.41
0.40
0.52
0.20
0.13
0.08
0.01
0.00
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
89
4
0
6
0.86
0.73
0.11
1.34
0.28
0.26
0.02
0.03
0.09
0.06
0.00
0.03
0.32
0.21
0.00
0.29
0.11
0.17
0.00
0.94
0.05
0.04
0.00
0.05
21
21
21
21
16
0.23
0.43
0.66
1.09
2.37
0.16
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.34
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.11
0.30
0.04
0.09
0.18
0.38
1.08
0.01
0.04
0.11
0.23
0.54
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.11
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
VI-24
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table 6-15. Population Characteristics, Average Per Capita Income, and Poverty Rates
by Selected Characteristics: 1990s, 2020, 2060
Year
1990s
Percent
of
Retirees
Per
Capita
Income
2020
Percent
In
Poverty
Percent
of
Retirees
Per
Capita
Income
2060
Percent
In
Poverty
Percent
of
Retirees
Per
Capita
Income
Total
100%
0.87
7.8%
100%
0.86
5.2%
100%
0.88
Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
39.8
0.68
14.4
12.0
0.41
20.2
9.5
0.41
High School
47.5
0.91
3.9
60.5
0.70
3.8
56.1
0.70
Graduate
College Graduate
12.7
1.33
2.1
27.5
1.36
1.7
34.4
1.36
Race
White, non-Hispanic
85.5
0.89
5.7
76.8
0.99
3.3
61.7
0.99
African-American
7.6
0.68
23.5
9.5
0.61
10.5
12.0
0.61
Hispanic
4.7
0.72
19.4
7.9
0.70
9.4
18.6
0.70
Asian/Native
2.2
1.09
11.9
5.8
0.89
15.3
7.7
0.89
American
Gender
Female
57.5
0.86
10.3
56.5
0.87
6.4
56.2
0.87
Male
42.5
0.89
4.3
43.5
0.90
3.7
43.8
0.90
Marital Status
Never Married
4.6
0.93
17.0
5.6
0.65
14.4
10.8
0.65
Married
59.2
0.82
2.5
60.7
0.92
2.9
56.6
0.92
Widowed
29.2
0.95
14.4
17.9
0.91
8.0
17.3
0.91
Divorced
7.0
0.90
20.2
15.8
0.85
7.5
15.3
0.85
Age
62 to 64
16.1
1.01
6.1
19.9
1.03
4.2
15.0
1.06
65 to 69
27.9
0.89
6.1
28.1
0.86
4.9
24.1
0.83
70 to 74
22.9
0.83
7.5
22.4
0.79
5.4
20.4
0.88
75 to 79
16.6
0.83
9.0
14.1
0.80
6.0
17.1
0.86
80 to 84
12.1
0.80
12.4
9.3
0.78
6.4
13.2
0.85
85 to 89
4.3
0.81
10.7
6.1
0.80
5.4
10.1
0.79
a/ Excludes individuals whose asset income places them in the top 5 percent of their respective cohort.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income expressed as a percent of the average wage.
c/ Poverty rate is the family income including co-resident income but excluding imputed rental income
divided by the family poverty threshold. An individual is in poverty if his/her income is below the poverty
threshold.
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX and tabulations of the 1990-1993 SIPP.
2060 are somewhat understated due to the limited projection of immigrants in the
extended cohorts.
VI-25
Percent
In
Poverty
1.6%
6.1
1.8
0.1
1.1
3.5
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.7
7.0
0.5
1.2
2.5
2.2
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.0
2.1
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX TABLES
Table A6-1a. Percent of Individuals at Age 62, by Individual Characteristics and Cohort
Year of Birth
1930-39
1940-49
1950-59
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-17
All
11
61
28
12
58
30
11
56
33
11
57
32
11
56
32
12
55
33
13
58
29
67
11
14
8
62
12
18
7
62
13
18
7
57
13
21
9
52
13
24
10
50
13
26
11
64
12
17
8
52
48
51
49
51
49
51
49
51
49
51
49
52
48
9
68
7
16
11
68
6
15
11
68
6
15
12
68
5
16
12
69
5
15
11
70
5
15
9
69
6
15
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
25
14
11
High School Graduate
57
59
61
College Graduate
18
27
28
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
80
78
74
African-American
9
9
10
Hispanic
7
8
9
Other
4
5
7
By Gender
Female
53
52
52
Male
47
48
48
By Marital Status
Never Married
5
5
7
Married
75
71
70
Widowed
9
8
7
Divorced
12
16
16
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
Table A6-1b. Percent of Individuals at Age 67, by Individual Characteristics and Cohort
Year of Birth
1930-39
1940-49
1950-59
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
25
14
11
High School Graduate
57
59
61
College Graduate
18
27
29
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
80
78
74
African-American
9
9
10
Hispanic
7
8
9
Other
4
5
7
By Gender
Female
54
54
53
Male
46
46
47
By Marital Status
Never Married
4
5
7
Married
71
68
66
Widowed
13
11
11
Divorced
12
16
16
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-17
All
11
61
28
11
58
31
11
55
34
10
57
33
11
56
33
12
55
33
13
58
30
67
11
14
8
63
11
18
7
63
13
18
6
58
13
21
9
53
13
24
10
51
13
25
11
64
11
16
8
54
46
52
48
51
49
51
49
51
49
51
49
52
48
9
64
11
16
11
65
10
15
11
65
10
15
11
65
8
16
11
66
8
15
10
67
8
15
9
66
10
15
VI-26
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-2a. Percentage of Individuals Projected to be in Fair or Poor Health, by Cohort,
Age, and Gender
193039
194049
195059
196069
Year of Birth
1970- 198079
89
199099
200009
201017
All
N/A
N/A
28.0
31.3
33.0
6.3
22.1
26.9
29.2
31.8
5.9
20.3
23.5
27.4
29.6
5.9
22.7
25.2
27.9
31.2
8.2
21.0
25.7
29.0
30.5
9.8
22.4
25.3
27.7
30.4
8.7
21.2
24.5
27.1
30.4
9.1
21.0
26.4
28.1
30.9
9.0
22.5
26.9
29.7
32.9
8.0
21.6
25.5
28.5
31.1
50
N/A
7.1
7.1
6.1
9.2
55
N/A
16.6
15.1
17.4
17.6
60
18.2
20.0
19.3
20.6
20.5
62
24.3
21.3
21.3
22.9
23.2
67
25.1
22.6
22.9
24.7
25.4
N/A are projections not available from the MINT4EX data system.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
10.3
17.7
20.4
23.7
23.3
10.5
18.9
19.9
22.9
24.5
9.1
17.7
20.5
23.9
25.6
9.0
18.3
19.2
23.4
25.3
8.7
17.5
20.0
23.2
24.6
Female
Age
50
55
60
62
67
Male
VI-27
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-2b. Percent of Individuals Drawing Disability Benefits at Age 62, by Cohort, Race,
and Gender
Year of Birth
193039
194049
195059
196069
197079
198089
199099
200009
201017
All
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
9.80
2.40
1.20
10.40
1.00
0.50
11.30
0.80
0.20
11.20
0.80
0.20
15.80
0.40
0.10
17.10
0.40
0.00
17.30
0.30
0.00
16.60
0.40
0.00
17.20
0.20
0.00
14.20
0.60
0.20
Female
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
7.90
3.20
1.30
8.70
1.20
0.70
10.10
1.10
0.10
10.00
0.90
0.00
13.50
0.30
0.00
15.20
0.30
0.00
14.40
0.10
0.00
14.00
0.30
0.00
14.20
0.20
0.00
12.10
0.70
0.50
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
11.90
1.40
1.20
12.20
0.90
0.30
12.50
0.60
0.40
12.40
0.60
0.40
18.30
0.40
0.10
19.10
0.50
0.00
20.50
0.50
0.00
19.30
0.40
0.00
20.30
0.20
0.00
16.50
0.50
0.20
White Non-Hispanic
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
9.50
1.50
0.70
9.80
0.60
0.40
10.50
0.60
0.20
9.70
0.50
0.20
14.30
0.20
0.00
14.80
0.20
0.00
15.00
0.10
0.00
14.50
0.30
0.00
15.50
0.20
0.00
12.30
0.40
0.90
African-American
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
16.70
6.20
3.80
19.00
2.80
1.10
18.90
1.50
0.50
19.00
1.80
0.50
24.20
1.10
0.20
26.60
1.20
0.10
26.30
0.80
0.00
25.10
0.20
0.00
23.40
0.30
0.00
22.70
1.40
0.00
Hispanic
DI Only
SSI Only
Concurrent DI & SSI
6.70
4.80
3.20
7.50
2.00
1.20
11.20
1.80
0.30
12.00
1.10
0.20
15.50
0.40
0.10
16.80
0.30
0.00
16.70
0.20
0.00
15.40
0.40
0.00
17.60
0.20
0.00
14.90
0.70
0.00
Other
DI Only
3.80
6.30
7.10
SSI Only
5.70
1.60
1.50
Concurrent DI & SSI
1.20
0.90
0.50
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
10.50
1.30
0.00
15.30
0.40
0.10
20.00
0.20
0.00
20.10
0.80
0.10
18.70
1.00
0.00
16.20
0.30
0.00
14.60
1.00
0.00
All
Male
VI-28
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-3a. Projections of Age at Retirement, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
1930-39
1940-49
1950-59
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-17
All
All Workers
% Retired at 55
% Retired at 60
% Retired at 62
% Retired at 65
% Retired at 67
% Retired at 70
33.7
48.1
58.6
76.5
85.8
100.0
42.9
61.5
70.6
83.4
88.8
100.0
36.5
56.9
65.5
78.9
85.0
100.0
34.4
54.2
63.2
77.2
83.9
100.0
33.7
55.0
64.9
79.6
86.9
100.0
33.6
55.5
64.1
77.1
83.7
100.0
32.5
54.7
63.7
76.9
83.4
100.0
33.6
55.2
64.3
76.6
83.4
100.0
32.8
55.2
64.6
78.1
84.0
100.0
34.9
55.2
64.4
78.2
84.8
100.0
Female
% Retired at 55
% Retired at 60
% Retired at 62
% Retired at 65
% Retired at 67
% Retired at 70
44.3
57.3
64.7
80.8
88.7
100.0
48.9
68.1
76.5
85.8
90.6
100.0
44.6
63.9
70.7
80.8
86.6
100.0
40.7
59.7
66.3
77.9
84.9
100.0
40.3
58.9
67.2
78.9
87.1
100.0
40.0
59.3
66.4
76.5
83.6
100.0
39.2
59.1
67.0
76.6
83.5
100.0
39.9
59.7
66.9
76.2
83.8
100.0
40.7
60.9
68.2
78.2
84.2
100.0
42.2
60.8
68.2
79.0
85.7
100.0
Male
% Retired at 55
20.9
36.1
27.5
27.1
26.4
26.6
25.0
26.6
24.0
26.8
% Retired at 60
37.2
53.9
49.2
47.9
50.8
51.3
49.7
50.1
48.9
48.8
% Retired at 62
51.1
63.8
59.7
59.7
62.4
61.5
60.0
61.3
60.7
60.0
% Retired at 65
71.4
80.5
76.8
76.5
80.4
77.7
77.3
76.9
77.9
77.3
% Retired at 67
82.3
86.7
83.2
82.7
86.6
83.8
83.3
83.0
83.7
83.8
% Retired at 70
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0 100.0
NOTE: Retirement defined as either working 20 hours per week or less or having experienced a 50% earnings drop;
persons not in the labor force (for reasons other than disability) at age 50 are considered retired by 55.
Table includes all never-disabled, non-institutionalized survivors.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-29
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-3b. Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
All Workers
Takeup at ages 60-62
Takeup at age 63
Takeup at age 64
Takeup at age 65
Takeup at age 66
Takeup at age 67
Takeup at ages 68 and
over
Male
Takeup at ages 60-62
Takeup at age 63
Takeup at age 64
Takeup at age 65
Takeup at age 66
Takeup at age 67
Takeup at ages 68 and
over
193039
194049
195059
196069
197079
198089
199099
200009
201017
All
56.6
7.8
14.1
13.8
1.5
1.1
60.3
8.9
14.1
8.3
3.1
1.8
56.7
10.2
14.6
8.4
3.9
2.6
56.3
9.6
15.2
8.4
3.0
3.3
57.5
9.9
14.8
8.2
2.8
3.4
58.6
10.3
13.5
7.5
2.7
3.7
58.0
10.7
14.4
7.7
2.6
3.2
58.2
9.9
14.7
7.3
3.1
3.2
57.6
10.6
14.0
8.0
3.1
3.1
57.7
9.8
14.4
8.4
2.9
2.9
5.1
3.5
3.7
4.2
3.4
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.8
53.1
7.7
15.3
17.4
1.8
1.0
53.9
9.7
17.2
9.5
4.4
2.1
50.1
10.7
17.0
9.6
5.5
3.3
51.1
10.6
17.2
9.4
3.5
3.9
53.7
11.3
16.9
7.8
3.1
3.9
54.6
11.4
15.9
7.6
2.8
4.0
53.1
12.2
17.5
7.3
2.5
3.8
55.0
10.9
17.0
6.5
3.2
3.4
53.3
11.8
16.4
7.4
3.2
3.2
53.0
10.8
16.8
8.9
3.4
3.3
3.7
3.2
3.9
4.3
3.4
3.7
3.6
4.1
4.6
3.9
61.1
9.0
12.6
8.1
3.0
3.1
61.4
9.5
11.9
8.5
2.9
3.1
61.9
8.9
12.3
8.0
2.5
2.5
3.1
2.7
3.8
Female
Takeup at ages 60-62
59.5
65.8
62.8
61.0
60.8
62.3
62.3
Takeup at age 63
7.8
8.3
9.7
8.6
8.6
9.3
9.3
Takeup at age 64
13.1
11.5
12.4
13.5
12.9
11.3
11.7
Takeup at age 65
10.8
7.2
7.3
7.5
8.6
7.5
8.1
Takeup at age 66
1.2
1.9
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.7
Takeup at age 67
1.2
1.6
1.9
2.7
3.0
3.3
2.8
Takeup at ages 68 and
over
6.3
3.8
3.6
4.2
3.5
3.7
3.1
Note: Table includes all never-disabled individuals who take up Social Security by 2039.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-30
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-3c. Projections of Age at Social Security Benefit Take-up, by Cohort and AIME
Quintile
Year of Birth
193039
194049
195059
196069
197079
198089
199099
Bottom AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
56.7
71.4
65.5
63.8
67.8
70.7
71.1
Takeup at age 63
9.1
4.5
7.2
6.8
7.4
8.2
8.3
Takeup at age 64
8.6
8.4
10.3
11.9
11.2
12.0
11.6
Takeup at age 65
7.4
5.3
6.2
5.6
5.6
3.2
3.9
Takeup at age 66
2.7
1.0
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.2
1.0
Takeup at age 67
2.4
0.6
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.2
Takeup at ages 68 and over
13.1
8.8
8.0
9.3
5.7
4.4
3.9
Second AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
66.1
72.9
66.0
65.8
65.7
69.1
69.2
Takeup at age 63
5.9
7.4
10.7
11.0
9.8
9.7
9.2
Takeup at age 64
13.7
11.2
12.7
12.3
12.5
11.1
11.3
Takeup at age 65
9.1
4.8
5.9
6.0
7.7
7.6
7.8
Takeup at age 66
1.1
1.0
0.8
1.9
1.7
0.9
1.2
Takeup at age 67
0.9
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.1
1.1
0.3
Takeup at ages 68 and over
3.2
1.4
2.7
2.2
1.4
0.4
1.1
Third AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
53.5
61.2
60.5
56.8
57.0
58.6
53.8
Takeup at age 63
8.0
10.1
12.2
11.8
12.4
11.8
13.6
Takeup at age 64
17.7
13.6
13.1
15.9
14.6
14.0
16.7
Takeup at age 65
14.6
8.5
7.9
9.1
7.5
7.4
8.5
Takeup at age 66
0.9
1.5
2.1
2.2
2.7
3.6
2.2
Takeup at age 67
0.9
2.2
1.9
2.1
3.1
2.0
2.7
Takeup at ages 68 and over
4.3
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.5
Fourth AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
59.2
52.5
50.1
54.6
52.8
53.1
55.5
Takeup at age 63
7.7
12.0
11.0
8.5
8.5
9.5
9.7
Takeup at age 64
14.3
17.4
18.2
16.7
16.8
15.5
14.1
Takeup at age 65
14.1
10.1
10.5
9.3
11.1
7.6
7.7
Takeup at age 66
1.4
4.1
4.6
3.6
4.0
4.2
5.1
Takeup at age 67
0.5
2.0
2.7
4.3
4.5
5.5
4.0
Takeup at ages 68 and over
2.9
1.8
2.9
3.0
2.4
4.7
4.0
Top AIME Quintile
Takeup at ages 60-62
47.4
43.2
41.6
40.6
43.9
41.3
40.2
Takeup at age 63
8.1
10.7
9.7
9.8
11.4
12.3
12.5
Takeup at age 64
16.4
20.0
18.6
19.4
18.9
15.1
18.5
Takeup at age 65
23.9
12.7
11.4
12.1
9.2
11.9
10.8
Takeup at age 66
1.4
7.7
10.4
5.5
3.7
3.6
3.7
Takeup at age 67
0.6
3.1
5.7
8.4
8.0
9.3
9.1
Takeup at ages 68 and over
2.1
2.6
2.6
4.3
4.9
6.4
5.2
Notes: Table includes all never-disabled individuals who take up Social Security by 2039.
AIME quintiles are defined separately for each cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-31
200009
201017
All
72.4
7.2
11.0
3.2
1.2
0.3
4.7
69.7
8.9
11.2
4.0
1.1
0.3
4.9
67.9
7.5
10.8
4.8
1.4
0.7
6.9
65.7
10.4
12.6
8.3
1.5
0.5
1.0
70.5
9.4
10.6
6.9
1.8
0.2
0.7
67.7
9.5
12.0
7.0
1.3
0.8
1.7
57.7
12.7
14.3
6.9
3.6
3.3
1.5
56.8
13.5
13.4
7.9
3.0
3.0
2.5
57.4
11.9
14.7
8.5
2.5
2.4
2.6
54.5
8.8
16.3
7.3
5.4
3.7
3.9
51.3
10.7
17.1
9.8
5.6
2.6
2.9
53.5
9.6
16.4
9.5
4.3
3.4
3.2
40.5
10.4
19.1
10.9
3.9
8.3
6.9
39.4
10.7
18.0
11.2
3.8
9.6
7.3
41.9
10.7
18.3
12.2
4.9
7.1
4.8
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-4a. Projections of Percentage of Non-Disabled Individuals, Age 62 and
Over, With Positive Earnings, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
193039
194049
195059
196069
197079
198089
199099
200009
201017
All
69.0
48.5
35.6
24.9
68.5
48.3
34.6
26.2
66.7
46.8
33.7
23.0
71.4
52.0
36.9
26.8
71.1
52.0
36.7
28.4
70.7
50.7
35.8
24.9
66.9
45.4
34.3
23.3
66.1
44.9
32.8
24.2
63.1
43.3
31.8
21.3
57.5
44.2
34.2
24.9
56.6
43.9
33.2
26.2
55.1
43.3
32.7
23.0
55.6
47.0
35.1
26.8
54.7
47.1
34.5
28.4
55.1
46.4
34.5
24.9
59.1
41.8
33.4
23.3
58.1
41.0
31.9
24.2
55.1
40.5
31.1
21.3
85.0
87.7
72.4
84.7
88.7
73.2
82.5
80.0
58.9
90.6
93.3
80.5
89.9
90.6
80.6
88.3
86.5
70.1
79.1
81.8
62.8
79.0
86.5
61.9
76.1
73.1
48.6
All
At age 62
61.9
61.4
67.7
65.8
65.2
68.9
70.0
At age 65
43.3
42.1
47.2
46.4
46.8
47.5
49.2
At age 67
32.1
30.1
34.2
33.0
33.9
33.7
35.1
At age 70
21.5
20.8
23.2
23.1
17.5
23.5
24.5
Male
At age 62
73.1
65.7
73.2
68.5
67.4
71.6
73.4
At age 65
51.8
45.4
52.3
49.3
49.3
49.5
53.1
At age 67
38.1
32.1
36.8
34.3
35.3
34.6
37.5
At age 70
26.0
22.8
24.3
23.4
18.9
25.6
26.8
Female
At age 62
52.5
57.7
62.7
63.3
63.2
66.5
66.9
At age 65
36.2
39.3
42.6
43.8
44.6
45.6
45.6
At age 67
27.0
28.3
31.9
31.9
32.6
32.9
33.0
At age 70
17.7
19.2
22.2
22.8
16.2
21.5
22.5
All Beneficiaries
At age 62
53.0
50.4
53.9
54.5
54.4
57.1
58.0
At age 65
43.4
39.4
43.5
42.8
43.3
42.8
45.1
At age 67
32.1
29.6
33.5
32.2
32.8
32.1
33.8
At age 70
21.5
20.8
23.1
23.0
17.5
23.5
24.5
All Male Beneficiaries
At age 62
63.9
50.5
55.2
52.6
52.8
54.9
57.2
At age 65
51.5
41.5
47.1
44.7
45.4
44.3
48.8
At age 67
37.8
31.3
35.7
33.1
34.0
32.6
35.9
At age 70
26.0
22.6
24.2
23.3
18.8
25.6
26.8
All Female Beneficiaries
At age 62
44.8
50.3
53.0
55.9
55.7
58.9
58.6
At age 65
36.5
37.5
40.4
41.2
41.4
41.5
41.8
At age 67
27.2
28.2
31.5
31.4
31.7
31.6
31.8
At age 70
17.7
19.2
22.2
22.8
16.2
21.5
22.5
All Non-Beneficiaries
At age 62
73.6
78.1
85.7
80.2
79.8
85.7
86.5
At age 65
41.7
72.4
79.9
77.0
79.9
89.1
89.5
At age 67
30.4
41.2
54.3
52.3
64.2
75.9
74.0
All Male Non-Beneficiaries
At age 62
83.7
83.4
91.4
85.1
84.3
91.7
91.8
At age 65
55.9
81.3
87.7
84.4
83.2
94.2
92.2
At age 67
43.5
57.4
66.5
60.3
72.4
84.7
79.4
All Female Non-Beneficiaries
At age 62
63.9
72.0
78.9
74.8
75.0
79.0
80.5
At age 65
32.9
62.2
68.3
68.8
76.5
83.9
86.8
At age 67
24.0
29.3
42.3
45.0
56.8
67.6
68.3
Note: The 1970 cohort turns age 70 in 2040 and are considered nonworkers at age 70.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-32
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-4b. Percentage of Retirees With Positive Earnings Before Age of Benefit
Entitlement, by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth
1970- 198079
89
193039
194049
195059
196069
At age 54 and 55
At age 56 and 57
At age 58 and 59
At age 60 and 61
27.5
36.5
35.4
34.1
57.2
59.2
54.5
51.3
74.0
62.2
55.1
52.8
71.3
61.2
55.1
53.2
69.9
61.2
56.8
52.1
Male
At age 54 and 55
At age 56 and 57
At age 58 and 59
At age 60 and 61
37.5
49.3
47.1
46.0
57.5
56.9
52.0
48.7
72.5
62.7
56.5
54.1
67.4
59.9
53.9
49.9
64.6
58.0
56.2
50.5
199099
200009
201017
All
66.0
65.3
57.8
55.5
68.0
66.1
58.9
55.8
65.8
65.8
60.6
58.9
65.8
64.8
60.5
54.8
66.1
62.0
56.3
53.2
63.7
62.3
55.4
53.7
61.4
61.3
58.2
55.4
62.0
64.1
59.7
56.9
59.3
61.3
59.4
52.8
63.0
60.3
55.9
52.4
62.0
64.1
59.7
56.9
59.3
61.3
59.4
52.8
63.0
60.3
55.9
52.4
All
Female
At age 54 and 55
37.5
57.5
72.5
67.4
64.6
63.7
61.4
At age 56 and 57
49.3
56.9
62.7
59.9
58.0
62.3
61.3
At age 58 and 59
47.1
52.0
56.5
53.9
56.2
55.4
58.2
At age 60 and 61
46.0
48.7
54.1
49.9
50.5
53.7
55.4
Note: Retirees are never-disabled individuals with positive earnings at age 50 or older.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-33
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-4c. Percent of Individuals Age 62 with Positive Earnings, by Cohort, Gender, and
Social Security Receipt
Year of Birth
193039
194049
All
DI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
20.2
20.0
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.31
0.30
OASI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
52.4
49.9
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.49
0.55
Non-Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
70.8
74.2
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
1.47
1.77
Female
DI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
19.7
18.0
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.24
0.28
OASI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
44.9
50.1
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.38
0.43
Non-Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
60.4
67.0
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.90
1.19
Male
DI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
20.7
21.7
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.36
0.31
OASI Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
62.4
49.7
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
0.60
0.72
Non-Beneficiaries
Percent with Earnings
81.5
80.7
Mean Non-Zero Earnings
1.91
2.20
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
195059
196069
197079
198089
199099
200009
201017
All
21.7
0.36
16.9
0.33
19.0
0.47
19.6
0.40
20.9
0.55
20.4
0.51
22.4
0.55
20.2
0.45
53.1
0.54
53.9
0.52
53.8
0.57
56.1
0.55
57.1
0.56
56.7
0.55
55.6
0.56
54.3
0.55
81.4
1.68
77.6
1.65
77.9
1.65
83.6
2.07
85.0
1.85
83.2
1.91
82.5
1.86
80.0
1.77
21.3
0.25
15.2
0.29
13.1
0.33
13.2
0.24
13.0
0.27
13.0
0.23
18.0
0.28
15.4
0.27
52.2
0.45
55.2
0.45
55.1
0.47
57.9
0.46
57.6
0.49
58.1
0.46
56.7
0.47
54.3
0.46
73.4
1.16
71.8
1.12
73.5
1.15
77.6
1.22
80.4
1.16
78.6
1.17
78.2
1.18
73.8
1.15
22.0
0.45
18.5
0.35
23.5
0.53
25.0
0.48
26.9
0.65
26.3
0.62
25.8
0.70
24.0
0.54
54.3
0.65
52.2
0.61
52.2
0.69
54.0
0.68
56.4
0.66
54.9
0.67
54.2
0.67
54.3
0.66
88.5
2.06
83.1
2.10
82.2
2.08
89.2
2.75
89.4
2.43
87.9
2.57
86.6
2.44
85.8
2.29
VI-34
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-5a. Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62,
by Cohort and Gender
Year of Birth and
Gender
Any
Coverage
DB or DC
Coverage
DB
Coverage
DC
Coverage
IRA
Coverage
Keogh
Coverage
1930-1939
Female
Male
59.6%
51.1%
69.1%
47.1%
37.0%
58.4%
46.2%
38.6%
55.2%
2.9%
2.6%
3.3%
25.3%
23.7%
27.1%
0.7%
0.4%
1.0%
1940-1949
Female
Male
58.9%
53.0%
65.2%
47.8%
39.9%
56.5%
37.8%
30.4%
45.9%
20.6%
17.5%
23.9%
25.2%
25.4%
25.0%
1.2%
1.0%
1.4%
1950-1959
Female
Male
58.1%
53.8%
62.6%
49.8%
45.0%
55.0%
34.5%
30.9%
38.3%
28.5%
24.9%
32.4%
18.5%
17.5%
19.6%
0.9%
0.7%
1.1%
1960-1969
Female
Male
58.0%
55.0%
61.1%
54.0%
50.7%
57.5%
32.5%
28.1%
37.3%
39.3%
36.5%
42.2%
10.9%
10.5%
11.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.4%
1970-1979
Female
Male
58.0%
55.0%
61.1%
54.0%
50.7%
57.5%
32.7%
29.0%
36.6%
39.3%
36.5%
42.2%
9.6%
9.7%
9.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.4%
1980-1989
Female
Male
58.8%
55.2%
62.6%
53.7%
49.9%
57.6%
32.0%
28.3%
35.9%
38.5%
34.5%
42.5%
12.0%
11.3%
12.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.7%
1990-1999
Female
Male
58.2%
55.8%
60.7%
53.3%
51.3%
55.4%
32.3%
30.0%
34.8%
37.4%
34.7%
40.3%
11.0%
10.1%
11.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.7%
2000-2009
Female
Male
57.6%
55.2%
60.2%
52.7%
50.5%
55.0%
31.4%
29.0%
33.9%
37.5%
35.1%
40.0%
11.1%
10.4%
11.8%
0.3%
0.2%
0.4%
2010-2017
Female
Male
57.3%
54.0%
60.7%
52.8%
49.9%
55.8%
30.9%
27.8%
34.2%
38.3%
35.5%
41.2%
10.8%
10.3%
11.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
58.1%
51.8%
33.8%
54.0%
47.3%
29.6%
Female
62.5%
56.5%
38.2%
Male
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
32.6%
29.4%
36.0%
14.4%
13.9%
15.0%
0.6%
0.4%
0.8%
All
VI-35
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-5b. Percentage of Individuals Covered by a Pension Plan at Age 62, by
Cohort and AIME Quintile
Year of Birth AIME Quintile
1930-1939
1
2
3
4
5
1940-1949
1
2
3
4
5
1950-1959
1
2
3
4
5
1960-1969
1
2
3
4
5
1970-1979
1
2
3
4
5
1980-1989
1
2
3
4
5
1990-1999
1
2
3
4
5
Any
DB or DC
DB
DC
IRA
Keogh
Coverage Coverage Coverage Coverage Coverage Coverage
28.2%
47.8%
66.4%
71.6%
84.2%
18.5%
33.8%
56.4%
62.4%
67.0%
17.8%
32.7%
54.4%
61.5%
64.1%
1.3%
1.9%
2.8%
2.2%
6.4%
12.1%
22.3%
23.3%
28.2%
40.6%
0.2%
0.6%
0.3%
1.0%
1.2%
22.7%
46.0%
62.4%
77.4%
86.0%
11.4%
33.8%
51.5%
67.0%
75.2%
8.8%
25.6%
40.0%
53.7%
60.7%
3.4%
12.6%
19.9%
29.2%
37.6%
12.8%
19.1%
23.1%
29.5%
41.7%
0.3%
0.6%
1.4%
1.2%
2.5%
21.7%
44.1%
61.9%
77.0%
85.7%
16.9%
34.4%
53.8%
68.0%
76.0%
9.8%
23.6%
36.5%
49.6%
52.9%
9.6%
16.6%
27.5%
38.0%
50.6%
5.7%
14.0%
16.9%
23.0%
33.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
1.8%
1.9%
30.2%
45.6%
57.8%
69.6%
83.1%
26.9%
40.7%
52.7%
64.7%
77.3%
14.1%
24.5%
32.2%
40.6%
51.1%
18.2%
26.6%
35.3%
45.9%
57.1%
4.6%
7.6%
9.6%
13.0%
19.8%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.9%
33.5%
47.8%
60.5%
69.8%
78.5%
30.8%
43.5%
56.9%
65.3%
73.7%
16.7%
23.0%
34.2%
39.8%
50.0%
20.9%
32.5%
37.9%
47.8%
57.4%
4.1%
6.9%
7.5%
12.4%
17.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
29.8%
46.4%
60.8%
74.1%
83.2%
27.6%
40.6%
55.9%
70.0%
74.6%
16.5%
20.0%
35.2%
41.3%
47.1%
17.7%
30.1%
33.9%
50.4%
60.3%
4.1%
9.4%
8.4%
13.8%
24.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.3%
1.3%
28.3%
47.0%
63.4%
70.0%
82.4%
26.1%
41.4%
59.0%
65.8%
74.3%
15.6%
22.7%
37.2%
39.0%
47.2%
17.4%
28.8%
34.8%
48.0%
58.3%
3.6%
8.3%
7.7%
12.6%
22.9%
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
0.3%
1.4%
VI-36
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
2000-2009
1
2
3
4
5
27.6%
47.5%
61.4%
71.2%
80.4%
25.5%
41.5%
56.7%
66.7%
73.1%
15.2%
20.8%
33.8%
39.5%
47.6%
16.4%
30.7%
35.1%
47.5%
57.7%
3.8%
9.1%
8.3%
13.0%
21.4%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.9%
1
2
3
4
5
29.3%
45.4%
59.7%
70.9%
81.4%
27.2%
40.3%
55.8%
66.4%
74.5%
15.7%
20.7%
32.3%
39.6%
46.4%
18.0%
30.3%
35.3%
47.5%
60.4%
3.2%
9.0%
8.1%
13.6%
19.9%
0.0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.4%
1.2%
27.8%
23.6%
1
46.3%
39.1%
2
61.4%
55.4%
3
72.5%
66.5%
4
82.7%
74.3%
5
Source: The Urban Institute projections from MINT4EX.
14.2%
23.1%
36.3%
44.0%
51.3%
14.3%
24.6%
30.7%
41.7%
51.7%
5.6%
11.1%
12.1%
17.1%
26.3%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
1.4%
2010-2017
All
VI-37
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-6a. Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
193039
Defined Contribution Plan
Plus IRA Wealth at Age
50
N/A
55
N/A
60
0.89
62
0.66
67
0.70
Non-Pension Financial
Wealth at Age
50
55
60
62
67
N/A
N/A
6.09
7.15
9.88
194049
195059
196069
197079
198089
199099
200009
201017
All
0.85
1.03
1.19
1.22
1.24
0.92
1.18
1.44
1.50
1.54
0.91
1.18
1.46
1.53
1.57
0.89
1.17
1.44
1.52
1.56
1.01
1.34
1.63
1.72
1.76
0.94
1.24
1.51
1.59
1.60
0.94
1.25
1.54
1.62
1.65
1.00
1.33
1.62
1.71
1.76
0.94
1.22
1.48
1.48
1.51
3.22
4.14
5.38
5.66
5.80
6.33
7.86
9.71
10.13
10.36
8.10
9.57
11.07
11.56
11.74
6.10
7.84
9.40
10.33
10.53
6.43
8.33
10.35
11.27
10.96
6.65
8.79
10.45
11.65
11.51
6.66
8.69
10.35
11.47
11.63
6.25
8.05
9.54
10.52
10.76
6.58
8.14
9.64
10.15
10.42
7.44
9.67
11.98
12.98
12.72
7.59
10.03
11.96
13.24
13.11
7.60
9.93
11.90
13.09
13.27
7.25
9.38
11.16
12.23
12.52
7.52
9.37
11.12
11.63
11.93
Total Financial Wealth
(Excluding Defined Benefit
Plans) at Age
50
N/A
4.07
7.25
9.01
6.99
55
N/A
5.16
9.04
10.75
9.00
60
6.98
6.57
11.14 12.53 10.84
62
7.80
6.88
11.63 13.09 11.85
67
10.58
7.04
11.89 13.30 12.09
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4EX projections.
VI-38
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-6b. Mean Projected Per Capita Financial Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-491950-591960-691970-791980-891990-99 2000-09 2010-17
All
Defined Contribution Plan
Plus IRA Wealth at Age
50
55
60
62
67
N/A
N/A
0.81
0.56
0.62
0.73
0.89
1.03
1.05
1.05
0.82
1.05
1.25
1.30
1.32
0.78
1.03
1.25
1.31
1.34
0.77
0.99
1.26
1.32
1.33
0.86
1.14
1.45
1.50
1.48
0.80
1.04
1.33
1.37
1.37
0.81
1.08
1.36
1.39
1.40
0.83
1.09
1.39
1.43
1.44
0.81
1.05
1.29
1.27
1.28
Non-Pension Financial
Wealth at Age
50
55
60
62
67
N/A
N/A
2.24
2.09
2.23
1.34
1.80
2.34
2.47
2.50
1.95
2.52
3.14
3.27
3.26
1.93
2.40
2.98
3.10
3.10
1.80
2.33
2.94
3.11
3.14
2.18
2.77
3.47
3.69
3.70
2.06
2.61
3.22
3.42
3.42
1.97
2.55
3.15
3.36
3.41
2.05
2.66
3.31
3.49
3.52
1.98
2.49
3.08
3.16
3.19
Total Financial Wealth
(Excluding Defined Benefit
Plans) at Age
50
N/A
2.08
2.77
2.71
2.57
3.04
2.86
2.78
2.88
2.78
55
N/A
2.70
3.57
3.42
3.32
3.91
3.65
3.63
3.75
3.54
60
3.05
3.37
4.39
4.23
4.19
4.92
4.55
4.51
4.70
4.37
62
2.65
3.52
4.56
4.41
4.42
5.19
4.79
4.76
4.92
4.43
67
2.85
3.55
4.58
4.44
4.47
5.18
4.79
4.81
4.95
4.47
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4EX projections.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX
VI-39
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-6c. Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-17
ALL INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
74%
75%
77%
55
N/A
77%
79%
79%
60
78%
79%
82%
80%
62
75%
73%
75%
73%
67
76%
74%
76%
74%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
1.24
1.43
1.32
55
N/A
1.49
1.65
1.53
60
1.54
1.76
1.92
1.79
62
1.55
1.76
1.91
1.78
67
1.71
1.77
1.94
1.79
MARRIED INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
83%
83%
86%
55
N/A
85%
87%
87%
60
86%
87%
89%
87%
62
83%
78%
80%
78%
67
83%
77%
79%
77%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
1.26
1.39
1.20
55
N/A
1.52
1.60
1.42
60
1.54
1.72
1.84
1.58
62
1.56
1.67
1.81
1.54
67
1.74
1.68
1.82
1.52
SINGLE INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
48%
51%
53%
55
N/A
53%
58%
60%
60
54%
59%
64%
64%
62
53%
60%
65%
64%
67
59%
65%
69%
68%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
1.17
1.52
1.63
55
N/A
1.42
1.78
1.82
60
1.52
1.88
2.12
2.25
62
1.54
1.96
2.14
2.28
67
1.65
1.97
2.17
2.28
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4EX projections.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX
VI-40
All
75%
79%
80%
72%
73%
74%
78%
78%
72%
73%
74%
77%
77%
70%
72%
73%
77%
77%
70%
71%
74%
77%
77%
69%
71%
74%
78%
79%
72%
73%
1.23
1.47
1.66
1.67
1.69
1.31
1.54
1.71
1.72
1.77
1.27
1.50
1.67
1.69
1.73
1.30
1.55
1.70
1.69
1.74
1.27
1.48
1.64
1.62
1.66
1.30
1.53
1.73
1.71
1.76
84%
87%
87%
75%
75%
84%
87%
86%
76%
76%
83%
86%
85%
73%
74%
83%
86%
84%
74%
74%
83%
86%
84%
73%
74%
84%
87%
86%
76%
76%
1.20
1.45
1.58
1.52
1.53
1.28
1.53
1.68
1.65
1.60
1.29
1.54
1.66
1.60
1.58
1.31
1.60
1.72
1.66
1.65
1.27
1.52
1.62
1.57
1.58
1.28
1.52
1.67
1.62
1.63
52%
58%
63%
66%
70%
50%
56%
61%
64%
69%
51%
54%
60%
62%
67%
49%
55%
60%
61%
66%
50%
55%
60%
61%
65%
51%
56%
61%
62%
67%
1.30
1.54
1.85
1.98
2.00
1.37
1.54
1.79
1.88
2.09
1.23
1.42
1.71
1.87
1.99
1.26
1.43
1.66
1.77
1.91
1.27
1.39
1.68
1.72
1.81
1.36
1.55
1.86
1.93
2.01
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-6d. Mean Projected Per Capita Housing Wealth, by Age and Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-17
All
ALL INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
73%
74%
76%
74%
73%
73%
72%
73%
74%
55
N/A
76%
78%
79%
78%
77%
76%
76%
76%
77%
60
77%
79%
81%
79%
79%
77%
76%
76%
76%
78%
62
75%
72%
75%
73%
72%
71%
69%
69%
69%
71%
67
75%
73%
75%
73%
73%
73%
71%
71%
71%
72%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
1.12
1.33
1.18
1.11
1.13
1.12
1.14
1.13
1.16
55
N/A
1.37
1.54
1.38
1.34
1.36
1.35
1.39
1.34
1.39
60
1.42
1.64
1.78
1.57
1.49
1.51
1.46
1.50
1.44
1.54
62
1.44
1.63
1.76
1.54
1.50
1.50
1.44
1.47
1.41
1.52
67
1.59
1.63
1.79
1.56
1.50
1.54
1.47
1.50
1.43
1.55
MARRIED INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
0.82
0.83
0.86
0.84
0.84
0.83
0.82
0.83
0.83
55
N/A
0.85
0.86
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.85
0.86
60
0.85
0.87
0.89
0.87
0.87
0.86
0.84
0.83
0.84
0.86
62
0.82
0.78
0.80
0.77
0.75
0.76
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.76
67
0.82
0.77
0.79
0.76
0.75
0.75
0.73
0.74
0.74
0.76
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
1.15
1.30
1.09
1.08
1.15
1.14
1.16
1.13
1.15
55
N/A
1.42
1.50
1.29
1.31
1.38
1.40
1.42
1.36
1.38
60
1.43
1.62
1.71
1.43
1.44
1.49
1.46
1.51
1.44
1.51
62
1.46
1.56
1.68
1.40
1.39
1.45
1.41
1.45
1.39
1.46
67
1.61
1.56
1.68
1.38
1.38
1.41
1.37
1.43
1.38
1.46
SINGLE INDIVIDUALS
Proportion with Positive
Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
46%
49%
51%
50%
48%
48%
47%
48%
49%
55
N/A
52%
57%
58%
57%
54%
52%
54%
53%
55%
60
53%
58%
63%
63%
62%
60%
59%
58%
58%
60%
62
52%
60%
65%
63%
65%
63%
61%
60%
59%
61%
67
58%
65%
68%
67%
68%
68%
66%
66%
65%
66%
Mean Housing Wealth at Age
50
N/A
1.04
1.41
1.40
1.19
1.06
1.07
1.10
1.11
1.19
55
N/A
1.23
1.65
1.61
1.40
1.32
1.26
1.30
1.28
1.39
60
1.40
1.69
1.93
1.86
1.61
1.55
1.46
1.47
1.46
1.63
62
1.41
1.79
1.96
1.85
1.71
1.61
1.51
1.53
1.47
1.66
67
1.54
1.77
1.99
1.87
1.73
1.78
1.64
1.65
1.53
1.74
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
N/A Indicates values not included in the MINT4EX projections.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-41
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-7. Distribution of Per Capita Assets at Age 62 by Cohort
(Ratio of Wealth to the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Mean
Year of
Birth
1930-1939
1940-1949
1950-1959
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
2010-2017
95th
95th
Percentile/
20th
50th
80th
90th
95th Percentile/ 80th
Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile Mean
Percentile
Per Capita DC Account Balance
0.00
1.22
3.19
4.91
0.00
1.63
3.96
6.40
0.09
2.00
4.51
7.36
0.19
1.98
4.18
6.98
0.29
2.06
3.99
6.70
0.27
2.24
4.32
7.92
0.24
1.98
4.01
7.31
0.25
2.09
4.14
7.22
0.27
2.15
4.32
7.78
Per Capita Non-Pension Assets
7.15
0.03
0.80
4.76
9.17
15.55
1930-1939
5.66
0.04
0.96
5.31
10.55
18.68
1940-1949
10.13
0.18
1.22
6.35
15.15
31.98
1950-1959
11.56
0.20
1.19
5.56
13.29
33.20
1960-1969
10.33
0.23
1.23
5.54
13.23
28.85
1970-1979
11.27
0.21
1.32
6.43
17.52
36.41
1980-1989
11.65
0.21
1.23
6.06
15.26
34.50
1990-1999
11.47
0.21
1.22
5.58
15.21
33.79
2000-2009
10.52
0.22
1.27
6.07
16.00
33.55
2010-2017
Per Capita Financial Assets
7.80
0.05
1.19
6.11
10.74
17.42
1930-1939
6.88
0.12
1.60
7.75
14.15
22.64
1940-1949
11.63
0.35
2.07
9.53
18.88
35.98
1950-1959
13.09
0.41
2.19
8.37
17.65
37.52
1960-1969
11.85
0.48
2.31
8.61
17.17
34.57
1970-1979
12.98
0.46
2.36
10.49
21.51
41.83
1980-1989
13.24
0.45
2.22
9.68
19.52
38.66
1990-1999
13.09
0.44
2.23
9.05
19.61
38.95
2000-2009
12.23
0.48
2.24
9.65
20.64
38.12
2010-2017
Per Capita Housing Wealth
1.55
0.00
1.06
2.50
3.58
5.10
1930-1939
1.76
0.09
1.08
2.68
4.01
5.97
1940-1949
1.91
0.18
0.91
2.72
4.52
6.86
1950-1959
1.78
0.13
0.74
2.33
3.98
6.52
1960-1969
1.67
0.14
0.72
2.19
3.86
6.33
1970-1979
1.72
0.14
0.75
2.30
4.04
6.50
1980-1989
1.69
0.12
0.72
2.19
3.92
6.31
1990-1999
1.69
0.11
0.70
2.19
4.05
6.54
2000-2009
1.62
0.12
0.70
2.12
3.88
6.40
2010-2017
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
0.89
1.19
1.44
1.46
1.44
1.63
1.51
1.54
1.62
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
VI-42
5.52
5.40
5.12
4.77
4.64
4.87
4.85
4.68
4.79
4.03
3.92
3.68
3.53
3.26
3.53
3.69
3.45
3.62
2.18
3.30
3.16
2.87
2.79
3.23
2.96
2.95
3.19
3.26
3.52
5.04
5.97
5.20
5.66
5.69
6.06
5.53
2.23
3.29
3.09
2.87
2.92
3.22
2.92
2.98
3.12
2.85
2.92
3.78
4.48
4.02
3.99
3.99
4.30
3.95
3.29
3.40
3.59
3.67
3.79
3.77
3.75
3.86
3.96
2.04
2.23
2.53
2.80
2.89
2.83
2.89
2.98
3.01
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-8a. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
193039
194049
195059
196069
Year of Birth
1970- 1980- 199079
89
99
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.97
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.51
0.04
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.10
0.59
0.05
1.12
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.04
0.14
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.03
0.15
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.10
0.15
0.25
0.06
0.60
0.05
1.08
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.60
0.04
1.07
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.59
0.04
1.09
0.15
0.24
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.06
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.59
0.05
Male
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Own Benefit
Spouse Benefit
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Own Earnings
Spouse Earnings
Imputed Rental Income
1.06
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.14
0.13
0.61
0.45
0.17
0.04
1.16
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.19
0.10
0.69
0.51
0.17
0.05
1.20
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.24
0.07
0.71
0.53
0.18
0.05
1.12
0.12
0.10
0.02
0.23
0.06
0.66
0.47
0.19
0.04
1.07
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.22
0.05
0.63
0.44
0.19
0.04
1.14
0.14
0.11
0.02
0.26
0.06
0.65
0.48
0.16
0.04
1.11
0.14
0.12
0.02
0.24
0.05
0.64
0.47
0.17
0.04
1.10
0.14
0.11
0.02
0.23
0.05
0.64
0.47
0.17
0.04
1.11
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.24
0.05
0.65
0.48
0.17
0.04
1.12
0.13
0.11
0.02
0.22
0.07
0.65
0.48
0.17
0.04
200009
201017
All
Female
Total Income
0.90
0.99
1.05
0.96
1.00
1.07
1.05
1.04
1.08
1.02
Social Security Benefits 0.17
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
Own Benefit
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.10
Spouse Benefit
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
Financial Income
0.14
0.17
0.21
0.20
0.21
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.21
DB Pension Income
0.12
0.10
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.07
Earned Income
0.42
0.50
0.54
0.50
0.52
0.55
0.55
0.54
0.57
0.52
Own Earnings
0.21
0.29
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.32
0.33
0.33
0.31
Spouse Earnings
0.20
0.20
0.23
0.18
0.21
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.24
0.22
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-43
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-8b. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 201039
49
59
69
79
89
99
09
17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.97
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.51
0.04
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.10
0.59
0.05
1.12
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.04
0.14
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.03
0.15
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.10
0.15
0.25
0.06
0.60
0.05
1.08
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.60
0.04
1.07
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.59
0.04
1.09
0.15
0.24
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.06
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.59
0.05
Never Married
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.79
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.38
0.03
0.94
0.15
0.14
0.08
0.52
0.04
0.94
0.14
0.17
0.06
0.52
0.04
0.86
0.15
0.18
0.04
0.44
0.05
0.87
0.15
0.17
0.04
0.47
0.04
0.81
0.14
0.16
0.03
0.43
0.04
0.80
0.16
0.16
0.03
0.41
0.04
0.81
0.15
0.15
0.04
0.44
0.03
0.81
0.14
0.16
0.03
0.45
0.03
0.84
0.15
0.16
0.04
0.45
0.04
Married
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
1.02
0.15
0.15
0.13
0.55
0.04
1.10
0.15
0.19
0.10
0.62
0.05
1.16
0.14
0.23
0.07
0.66
0.05
1.06
0.13
0.22
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.06
0.14
0.22
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.16
0.14
0.26
0.07
0.64
0.04
1.13
0.14
0.25
0.07
0.63
0.04
1.10
0.14
0.24
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.14
0.14
0.26
0.06
0.64
0.04
1.10
0.14
0.23
0.07
0.62
0.04
Widowed
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.19
0.09
0.14
0.30
0.05
0.83
0.22
0.15
0.10
0.30
0.06
0.94
0.22
0.23
0.08
0.34
0.07
0.89
0.21
0.20
0.06
0.35
0.07
0.93
0.23
0.22
0.05
0.35
0.07
1.04
0.24
0.29
0.06
0.37
0.08
1.01
0.23
0.25
0.04
0.41
0.07
1.12
0.21
0.27
0.05
0.52
0.08
1.05
0.20
0.25
0.04
0.49
0.07
0.95
0.22
0.21
0.07
0.38
0.07
Divorced
Total Income
0.88
1.09 1.12
1.08 1.06
1.12 1.08
1.12 1.11
1.09
Social Security Benefits 0.15
0.17 0.17
0.15 0.15
0.16 0.15
0.16 0.15
0.16
Financial Income
0.10
0.15 0.20
0.21 0.21
0.24 0.21
0.22 0.22
0.20
DB Pension Income
0.12
0.09 0.07
0.06 0.05
0.05 0.04
0.05 0.05
0.06
Earned Income
0.45
0.62 0.61
0.60 0.59
0.62 0.63
0.64 0.65
0.61
Imputed Rental Income 0.04
0.06 0.06
0.06 0.05
0.05 0.05
0.05 0.05
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the
top 5 percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-44
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-8c. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.97
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.51
0.04
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.10
0.59
0.05
1.12
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.04
0.14
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.03
0.15
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.10
0.15
0.25
0.06
0.60
0.05
1.08
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.60
0.04
1.07
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.59
0.04
1.09
0.15
0.24
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.06
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.59
0.05
White, Non-Hispanic
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
1.05
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.54
0.05
1.16
0.16
0.20
0.11
0.64
0.05
1.24
0.16
0.26
0.08
0.68
0.06
1.18
0.15
0.26
0.07
0.66
0.05
1.17
0.15
0.25
0.06
0.65
0.05
1.23
0.16
0.30
0.07
0.65
0.05
1.22
0.16
0.28
0.07
0.66
0.05
1.21
0.16
0.28
0.07
0.65
0.05
1.23
0.15
0.29
0.07
0.67
0.05
1.19
0.16
0.25
0.08
0.64
0.05
African-American
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.73
0.15
0.03
0.11
0.40
0.02
0.81
0.18
0.07
0.08
0.45
0.03
0.82
0.15
0.09
0.06
0.49
0.03
0.72
0.16
0.12
0.04
0.37
0.03
0.72
0.15
0.12
0.05
0.38
0.03
0.76
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.40
0.02
0.76
0.15
0.13
0.05
0.41
0.02
0.75
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.39
0.03
0.82
0.15
0.15
0.04
0.46
0.03
0.76
0.15
0.12
0.05
0.41
0.03
Hispanic
Total Income
0.59
0.66
0.69
0.75
0.78
0.91
0.90
0.92
0.92
Social Security Benefits 0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.13
0.13
Financial Income
0.06
0.07
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.16
0.18
0.19
DB Pension Income
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
Earned Income
0.32
0.39
0.39
0.42
0.44
0.53
0.53
0.54
0.52
Imputed Rental Income 0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-45
0.84
0.13
0.16
0.04
0.49
0.03
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-8d. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Educational Attainment and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.97
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.51
0.04
1.07
0.16
0.18
0.10
0.59
0.05
1.12
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.62
0.05
1.04
0.14
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.03
0.15
0.21
0.06
0.57
0.05
1.10
0.15
0.25
0.06
0.60
0.05
1.08
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.60
0.04
1.07
0.15
0.23
0.06
0.59
0.04
1.09
0.15
0.24
0.06
0.61
0.04
1.06
0.15
0.22
0.07
0.59
0.05
High School Dropout
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.57
0.15
0.05
0.07
0.26
0.02
0.49
0.14
0.05
0.05
0.23
0.02
0.44
0.11
0.05
0.02
0.24
0.02
0.47
0.11
0.07
0.02
0.25
0.02
0.48
0.12
0.08
0.02
0.24
0.02
0.48
0.13
0.09
0.02
0.23
0.02
0.51
0.13
0.08
0.02
0.25
0.02
0.50
0.13
0.09
0.01
0.25
0.02
0.49
0.13
0.09
0.01
0.25
0.02
0.50
0.13
0.07
0.03
0.24
0.02
High School Graduate
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.95
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.45
0.05
0.96
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.49
0.05
0.95
0.16
0.19
0.06
0.50
0.05
0.87
0.15
0.18
0.05
0.46
0.04
0.85
0.15
0.17
0.05
0.45
0.04
0.85
0.15
0.18
0.04
0.44
0.04
0.86
0.15
0.17
0.04
0.46
0.03
0.86
0.15
0.17
0.04
0.46
0.04
0.86
0.15
0.17
0.04
0.46
0.03
0.89
0.15
0.17
0.06
0.47
0.04
College Graduate
Total Income
1.70
1.67
1.79
1.69
1.67
1.82
1.74
1.71
1.78
1.73
Social Security Benefits
0.11
0.14
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
Financial Income
0.24
0.29
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.44
0.40
0.40
0.42
0.38
DB Pension Income
0.18
0.13
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.11
Earned Income
1.10
1.05
1.07
1.00
0.98
1.04
0.99
0.98
1.04
1.02
Imputed Rental Income
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.07
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5 percent
of their cohort
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-46
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-8e. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
0.97
1.07
1.12
1.04
1.03
1.10
1.08
1.07
1.09
1.06
Social Security Benefits
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
Financial Income
0.14
0.18
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.22
DB Pension Income
0.12
0.10
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.07
Earned Income
0.51
0.59
0.62
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.59
0.61
0.59
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.05
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.22
0.23
0.22
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.22
Social Security Benefits
0.11
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.12
Financial Income
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
DB Pension Income
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04
Imputed Rental Income
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.51
0.51
0.50
0.50
0.52
Social Security Benefits
0.19
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.18
Financial Income
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
DB Pension Income
0.07
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.04
Earned Income
0.18
0.17
0.21
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
Imputed Rental Income
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.85
0.89
0.92
0.83
0.82
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.85
0.86
Social Security Benefits
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.17
Financial Income
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.16
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.11
0.08
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.06
Earned Income
0.37
0.40
0.46
0.42
0.40
0.44
0.45
0.44
0.44
0.43
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.21
1.38
1.46
1.34
1.32
1.43
1.39
1.37
1.37
1.37
Social Security Benefits
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.15
Financial Income
0.22
0.26
0.32
0.27
0.29
0.32
0.29
0.30
0.30
0.29
DB Pension Income
0.20
0.15
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.09
Earned Income
0.58
0.75
0.84
0.79
0.77
0.83
0.83
0.80
0.81
0.79
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
Top Quintile
Total Income
2.36
2.68
2.86
2.72
2.72
2.95
2.86
2.85
3.00
2.79
Social Security Benefits
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
Financial Income
0.32
0.41
0.61
0.61
0.57
0.75
0.68
0.67
0.70
0.60
DB Pension Income
0.22
0.18
0.14
0.16
0.15
0.18
0.18
0.16
0.18
0.17
Earned Income
1.63
1.89
1.87
1.74
1.78
1.80
1.79
1.81
1.90
1.80
Imputed Rental Income
0.07
0.09
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5 percent of
their cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-47
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-8f. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 62, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-17 All
All Individuals
Total Income
1.26
1.26
1.51
1.53
1.48
1.66
Social Security Benefits
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.15
Financial Income
0.40
0.34
0.56
0.63
0.57
0.61
DB Pension Income
0.13
0.10
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
Earned Income
0.53
0.61
0.66
0.64
0.65
0.77
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.22
0.23
0.22
0.21
0.22
0.23
Social Security Benefits
0.11
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.13
Financial Income
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
DB Pension Income
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
Imputed Rental Income
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.51
Social Security Benefits
0.19
0.20
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.19
Financial Income
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
DB Pension Income
0.07
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
Earned Income
0.18
0.17
0.21
0.17
0.18
0.18
Imputed Rental Income
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.85
0.89
0.92
0.83
0.82
0.87
Social Security Benefits
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.17
0.17
Financial Income
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.16
0.17
0.18
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.11
0.08
0.05
0.04
0.04
Earned Income
0.37
0.40
0.46
0.42
0.40
0.44
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.21
1.38
1.47
1.34
1.32
1.43
Social Security Benefits
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.14
Financial Income
0.23
0.27
0.32
0.27
0.29
0.32
DB Pension Income
0.19
0.15
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.08
Earned Income
0.57
0.74
0.84
0.79
0.77
0.83
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.06
Top Quintile
Total Income
2.74
3.49
3.26
4.36
4.77
4.54
Social Security Benefits
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.13
Financial Income
0.99
1.58
1.17
2.20
2.58
2.26
DB Pension Income
0.22
0.21
0.18
0.14
0.17
0.17
Earned Income
1.33
1.50
1.70
1.77
1.77
1.87
Imputed Rental Income
0.08
0.08
0.10
0.13
0.13
0.11
Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-48
1.63
0.15
0.63
0.07
0.73
0.05
1.63
0.15
0.63
0.06
0.74
0.05
1.57
0.15
0.59
0.06
0.73
0.05
1.52
0.15
0.56
0.07
0.68
0.05
0.23
0.13
0.04
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.22
0.12
0.04
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.22
0.12
0.04
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.22
0.12
0.04
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.51
0.19
0.09
0.03
0.18
0.03
0.50
0.18
0.09
0.03
0.18
0.03
0.50
0.18
0.09
0.02
0.18
0.02
0.52
0.18
0.09
0.04
0.18
0.03
0.86
0.16
0.17
0.04
0.45
0.04
0.85
0.16
0.17
0.04
0.44
0.04
0.85
0.16
0.17
0.04
0.44
0.04
0.86
0.17
0.16
0.06
0.43
0.04
1.39
0.14
0.29
0.07
0.83
0.05
1.37
0.14
0.30
0.07
0.80
0.06
1.37
0.14
0.30
0.06
0.81
0.06
1.37
0.15
0.29
0.09
0.79
0.06
5.27
0.13
2.45
0.18
2.39
0.12
5.16
0.13
2.55
0.18
2.18
0.12
5.22
0.13
2.54
0.17
2.26
0.12
4.93
0.13
2.33
0.17
2.19
0.11
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-9a. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Gender and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
193039
194049
195059
196069
Year of Birth
1970- 198079
89
199099
200009
201017
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.81
0.28
0.20
0.12
0.17
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.84
0.26
0.24
0.08
0.21
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.28
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.27
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.24
0.09
0.19
0.05
Male
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Own benefits
Wife's benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Own earnings
Wife's earnings
Imputed Rental Income
0.83
0.26
0.20
0.10
0.16
0.14
0.19
0.10
0.09
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.21
0.09
0.19
0.11
0.19
0.10
0.09
0.05
0.89
0.28
0.21
0.09
0.24
0.09
0.21
0.12
0.09
0.05
0.88
0.26
0.20
0.08
0.22
0.08
0.22
0.12
0.10
0.04
0.87
0.26
0.20
0.08
0.24
0.08
0.26
0.15
0.11
0.04
0.90
0.27
0.21
0.09
0.27
0.08
0.22
0.12
0.10
0.04
0.87
0.27
0.21
0.09
0.26
0.08
0.22
0.12
0.11
0.04
0.86
0.27
0.21
0.09
0.25
0.08
0.21
0.12
0.09
0.04
0.86
0.26
0.20
0.09
0.26
0.08
0.21
0.12
0.09
0.04
0.87
0.27
0.20
0.09
0.23
0.09
0.22
0.12
0.10
0.04
Female
Total Income
0.75
0.78
0.84
0.78
0.81
0.86
0.83
0.83
0.84
0.81
Social Security Benefits
0.26
0.28
0.29
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.28
Own benefits
0.17
0.19
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.19
Husband's benefits
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
Financial Income
0.16
0.19
0.24
0.22
0.24
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.26
0.23
DB Pension Income
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.09
Earned Income
0.12
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.16
Own earnings
0.07
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.09
Husband's earnings
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.07
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort. Husband’s and Wife’s benefits are the total Social Security benefit received by the
respondent’s spouse regardless of benefit type.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-49
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-9b. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Marital Status and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-391940-491950-591960-691970-791980-891990-992000-09 2010-17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.81
0.28
0.20
0.12
0.17
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.84
0.26
0.24
0.08
0.21
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.28
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.27
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.24
0.09
0.19
0.05
Never Married
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.68
0.23
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.04
0.72
0.26
0.16
0.09
0.17
0.04
0.71
0.26
0.19
0.08
0.14
0.04
0.73
0.25
0.20
0.07
0.16
0.05
0.72
0.25
0.20
0.05
0.19
0.04
0.66
0.24
0.18
0.05
0.16
0.03
0.65
0.24
0.18
0.05
0.15
0.03
0.68
0.25
0.18
0.07
0.15
0.03
0.67
0.24
0.19
0.05
0.16
0.03
0.69
0.25
0.18
0.06
0.16
0.04
Married
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.81
0.25
0.19
0.15
0.17
0.05
0.83
0.27
0.21
0.12
0.19
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.26
0.09
0.20
0.05
0.84
0.25
0.25
0.09
0.21
0.04
0.87
0.25
0.25
0.08
0.24
0.04
0.92
0.26
0.29
0.09
0.23
0.04
0.90
0.26
0.27
0.09
0.23
0.04
0.86
0.26
0.27
0.09
0.22
0.04
0.88
0.26
0.28
0.09
0.22
0.04
0.87
0.26
0.25
0.10
0.21
0.04
Widowed
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.73
0.30
0.11
0.17
0.09
0.05
0.74
0.31
0.16
0.11
0.09
0.06
0.84
0.31
0.25
0.09
0.11
0.07
0.80
0.31
0.24
0.08
0.11
0.07
0.82
0.32
0.25
0.08
0.09
0.07
0.89
0.34
0.31
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.86
0.33
0.29
0.07
0.09
0.08
0.90
0.34
0.33
0.09
0.07
0.09
0.86
0.34
0.32
0.08
0.05
0.07
0.83
0.32
0.25
0.09
0.09
0.07
Divorced
Total Income
0.72
0.80
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.86
0.80
0.85
0.83
0.83
Social Security Benefits
0.28
0.31
0.32
0.30
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.30
Financial Income
0.13
0.17
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.27
0.24
0.25
0.24
0.23
DB Pension Income
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.08
Earned Income
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.15
0.18
0.17
0.16
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.05
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-50
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-9c. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Race and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-491950-591960-691970-791980-891990-99 2000-092010-17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.81
0.28
0.20
0.12
0.17
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.84
0.26
0.24
0.08
0.21
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.28
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.27
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.24
0.09
0.19
0.05
White, Non-Hispanic
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.85
0.28
0.19
0.16
0.16
0.05
0.89
0.29
0.23
0.13
0.18
0.05
0.96
0.30
0.29
0.10
0.19
0.06
0.93
0.29
0.29
0.10
0.21
0.05
0.92
0.28
0.28
0.09
0.22
0.05
0.98
0.29
0.33
0.09
0.22
0.05
0.95
0.29
0.31
0.09
0.21
0.05
0.95
0.29
0.31
0.10
0.20
0.05
0.97
0.29
0.32
0.10
0.22
0.05
0.93
0.29
0.28
0.11
0.20
0.05
African-American
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.57
0.22
0.04
0.15
0.11
0.03
0.60
0.26
0.07
0.11
0.13
0.03
0.62
0.26
0.10
0.08
0.16
0.03
0.60
0.25
0.13
0.06
0.14
0.03
0.59
0.24
0.13
0.05
0.14
0.03
0.63
0.23
0.16
0.05
0.16
0.02
0.64
0.24
0.16
0.06
0.15
0.03
0.63
0.23
0.17
0.05
0.15
0.03
0.62
0.24
0.16
0.05
0.14
0.03
0.62
0.24
0.13
0.07
0.14
0.03
Hispanic
Total Income
0.50
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.63
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.66
Social Security Benefits
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
Financial Income
0.07
0.07
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.20
0.18
0.19
0.22
0.17
DB Pension Income
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
Earned Income
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.16
Imputed Rental Income
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-51
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-9d. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Level of Educational Attainment
and Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39 1940-491950-591960-691970-791980-891990-99 2000-092010-17
All
All Individuals
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.78
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.81
0.28
0.20
0.12
0.17
0.05
0.86
0.28
0.25
0.09
0.18
0.05
0.82
0.27
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.84
0.26
0.24
0.08
0.21
0.05
0.88
0.27
0.28
0.08
0.20
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.20
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.26
0.08
0.19
0.05
0.85
0.27
0.27
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.84
0.27
0.24
0.09
0.19
0.05
High School Dropout
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.49
0.21
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.03
0.40
0.18
0.05
0.05
0.08
0.02
0.37
0.16
0.06
0.02
0.10
0.02
0.38
0.17
0.08
0.02
0.09
0.02
0.42
0.18
0.09
0.02
0.10
0.02
0.42
0.19
0.10
0.02
0.10
0.02
0.43
0.19
0.09
0.02
0.11
0.02
0.41
0.19
0.09
0.01
0.09
0.01
0.41
0.19
0.10
0.02
0.10
0.01
0.42
0.19
0.08
0.04
0.09
0.02
High School Graduate
Total Income
Social Security Benefits
Financial Income
DB Pension Income
Earned Income
Imputed Rental Income
0.80
0.27
0.18
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.77
0.28
0.18
0.11
0.15
0.05
0.78
0.28
0.21
0.08
0.16
0.05
0.73
0.26
0.20
0.07
0.16
0.04
0.71
0.25
0.19
0.06
0.16
0.04
0.70
0.25
0.20
0.06
0.16
0.04
0.71
0.25
0.19
0.06
0.17
0.03
0.70
0.25
0.19
0.06
0.17
0.04
0.70
0.25
0.19
0.06
0.16
0.04
0.73
0.26
0.19
0.08
0.16
0.04
College Graduate
Total Income
1.18
1.14
1.26
1.26
1.29
1.36
1.28
1.28
1.30
1.27
Social Security Benefits
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.32
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
Financial Income
0.28
0.32
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.49
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.43
DB Pension Income
0.26
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.15
Earned Income
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.29
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
Imputed Rental Income
0.07
0.07
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.08
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-52
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-9e. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort (Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-39
1940-49
1950-59
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
2010-17
All Individuals
Total Income
0.78
0.81
0.86
0.82
0.84
0.88
0.85
0.84
0.85
Social Security Benefits
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
Financial Income
0.17
0.20
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.28
0.26
0.26
0.27
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.12
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
Earned Income
0.15
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.19
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.04
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.21
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
Social Security Benefits
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.15
Financial Income
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.04
DB Pension Income
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Imputed Rental Income
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.48
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.44
0.43
0.43
0.42
0.42
Social Security Benefits
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.24
0.25
Financial Income
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.08
DB Pension Income
0.07
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
Earned Income
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.73
0.71
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.68
0.67
0.66
0.65
Social Security Benefits
0.28
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
Financial Income
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.15
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.12
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05
Earned Income
0.11
0.11
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.04
1.07
1.12
1.05
1.05
1.12
1.09
1.08
1.09
Social Security Benefits
0.30
0.33
0.34
0.31
0.31
0.33
0.32
0.33
0.32
Financial Income
0.25
0.29
0.34
0.30
0.31
0.36
0.33
0.32
0.35
DB Pension Income
0.23
0.17
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.09
Earned Income
0.19
0.22
0.25
0.27
0.27
0.25
0.27
0.27
0.27
Imputed Rental Income
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Top Quintile
Total Income
1.67
1.84
2.07
2.07
2.13
2.28
2.17
2.18
2.23
Social Security Benefits
0.32
0.36
0.39
0.36
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
Financial Income
0.44
0.57
0.79
0.76
0.73
0.91
0.84
0.86
0.87
DB Pension Income
0.35
0.28
0.24
0.27
0.23
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.29
Earned Income
0.49
0.54
0.54
0.58
0.73
0.66
0.63
0.60
0.63
Imputed Rental Income
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.11
0.09
Note: To minimize the effects of outliers, estimates exclude individuals whose financial income is in the top 5
percent of their cohort.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-53
All
0.84
0.27
0.24
0.09
0.19
0.05
0.22
0.15
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.44
0.26
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.68
0.29
0.15
0.07
0.13
0.04
1.08
0.32
0.32
0.12
0.25
0.06
2.09
0.35
0.77
0.27
0.60
0.10
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-9f. Per Capita Income by Source at Age 67, by Per-Capita Income Quintile and
Cohort
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)
Year of Birth
1930-391940-491950-591960-691970-791980-891990-992000-092010-17
All Individuals
Total Income
1.25
1.02
1.27
1.32
1.28
1.30
Social Security Benefits
0.26
0.28
0.29
0.27
0.27
0.28
Financial Income
0.61
0.39
0.64
0.71
0.65
0.67
DB Pension Income
0.16
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
Earned Income
0.16
0.17
0.19
0.19
0.22
0.20
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
Bottom Quintile
Total Income
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.21
0.23
0.23
Social Security Benefits
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.16
Financial Income
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
DB Pension Income
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Earned Income
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Imputed Rental Income
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Quintile 2
Total Income
0.48
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.44
0.43
Social Security Benefits
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.25
0.25
0.25
Financial Income
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
DB Pension Income
0.07
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
Earned Income
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.05
Imputed Rental Income
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Quintile 3
Total Income
0.73
0.71
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.68
Social Security Benefits
0.28
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.28
0.29
Financial Income
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
DB Pension Income
0.15
0.12
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.05
Earned Income
0.11
0.11
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.13
Imputed Rental Income
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
Quintile 4
Total Income
1.04
1.07
1.12
1.05
1.05
1.12
Social Security Benefits
0.30
0.33
0.34
0.31
0.31
0.33
Financial Income
0.25
0.29
0.34
0.30
0.31
0.36
DB Pension Income
0.23
0.17
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.12
Earned Income
0.19
0.22
0.25
0.27
0.27
0.25
Imputed Rental Income
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
Top Quintile
Total Income
3.78
2.63
3.83
4.24
3.99
4.02
Social Security Benefits
0.31
0.35
0.38
0.36
0.35
0.36
Financial Income
2.62
1.44
2.60
3.00
2.66
2.72
DB Pension Income
0.31
0.26
0.23
0.26
0.23
0.26
Earned Income
0.45
0.48
0.49
0.49
0.64
0.57
Imputed Rental Income
0.09
0.10
0.13
0.13
0.12
0.12
Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-54
All
1.32
0.28
0.69
0.09
0.21
0.05
1.33
0.28
0.71
0.09
0.20
0.05
1.28
0.27
0.67
0.09
0.20
0.05
1.27
0.28
0.64
0.10
0.20
0.05
0.23
0.16
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.22
0.16
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.22
0.15
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.22
0.15
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.43
0.26
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.02
0.42
0.24
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.02
0.42
0.25
0.08
0.02
0.04
0.02
0.44
0.26
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.67
0.29
0.16
0.05
0.13
0.04
0.66
0.29
0.16
0.04
0.13
0.04
0.65
0.29
0.15
0.05
0.13
0.04
0.68
0.29
0.15
0.07
0.13
0.04
1.09
0.32
0.33
0.10
0.27
0.06
1.08
0.33
0.32
0.10
0.27
0.06
1.09
0.32
0.35
0.09
0.27
0.06
1.08
0.32
0.32
0.12
0.25
0.06
4.18
0.36
2.87
0.26
0.57
0.12
4.25
0.36
2.97
0.25
0.54
0.13
4.04
0.36
2.74
0.27
0.57
0.12
3.91
0.36
2.63
0.26
0.54
0.12
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-10a. Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2020, by Individual Characteristics
Age in 2020
62 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
10.7
10.6
10.7
13.4
High School Graduate
63.7
59.6
58.2
60.9
College Graduate
25.6
29.8
31.1
25.6
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
73.0
74.9
77.4
79.6
African-American
10.7
10.5
9.3
7.3
Hispanic
9.2
8.2
7.6
7.8
Other
7.2
6.3
5.8
5.2
By Gender
Female
52.6
52.7
57.2
60.4
Male
47.4
47.3
42.8
39.6
By Marital Status
Never Married
7.6
7.0
4.8
3.7
Married
69.1
65.5
62.1
54.9
Widowed
7.6
10.7
16.2
26.3
Divorced
15.6
16.7
16.9
15.1
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
55.9
87.6
94.2
93.1
DI Recipient
11.5
3.0
N/A
N/A
SSI Recipient
1.4
2.8
3.4
3.9
Not Receiving SS Benefits
31.1
6.6
2.4
3.0
Notes: DI beneficiaries convert to old age beneficiaries at the normal retirement age.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-55
ALL
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.8
60.8
24.3
19.2
61.3
19.5
12.0
60.5
27.5
80.4
9.3
5.9
4.4
84.4
7.0
5.7
3.0
76.8
9.5
7.9
5.8
62.2
37.8
66.8
33.2
56.5
43.5
3.0
48.5
34.5
14.1
3.2
38.7
46.4
11.7
5.6
60.7
17.9
15.8
92.0
N/A
4.3
3.7
93.0
N/A
4.6
2.4
84.3
3.1
3.0
9.5
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-10b. Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and Income
Source
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Percent of
Total
Individuals Incomeb
Income
Social
From
Imputed
Security
SSI
DB
Financial
Rental
Benefits Benefits Pensions Assets Earnings Income
100%
0.86
0.26
0.00
0.10
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
13
0.40
0.17
0.01
0.04
High School Graduate
62
0.79
0.26
0.00
0.09
College Graduate
26
1.25
0.30
0.00
0.16
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
76
0.95
0.27
0.00
0.11
African-American
10
0.61
0.24
0.00
0.09
Hispanic
8
0.52
0.20
0.01
0.05
Other
6
0.63
0.16
0.02
0.05
By Gender
Female
57
0.82
0.27
0.00
0.09
Male
43
0.91
0.25
0.00
0.10
By Marital Status
Never Married
6
0.75
0.22
0.01
0.08
Married
60
0.89
0.24
0.00
0.10
Widowed
18
0.79
0.29
0.01
0.10
Divorced
16
0.85
0.29
0.00
0.09
By Age
62 to 64
20
1.03
0.18
0.00
0.07
65 to 69
28
0.86
0.28
0.00
0.09
70 to 74
22
0.79
0.29
0.00
0.11
75 to 79
14
0.80
0.28
0.01
0.10
80 to 84
9
0.78
0.27
0.01
0.12
85 to 89
6
0.80
0.26
0.01
0.13
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
84
0.86
0.29
0.00
0.11
DI Recipient
3
0.75
0.27
0.00
0.06
SSI Recipient
3
0.17
0.06
0.10
0.00
Not Receiving SS Benefits
10
1.08
0.03
0.00
0.05
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
21
0.22
0.15
0.02
0.01
Second quintile
21
0.47
0.26
0.00
0.05
Third quintile
21
0.72
0.29
0.00
0.09
Fourth quintile
21
1.12
0.30
0.00
0.14
Top quintile
16
2.07
0.32
0.00
0.24
a/ Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors excluding top wealth holders.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-56
0.25
0.20
0.05
0.08
0.22
0.40
0.08
0.17
0.31
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.29
0.09
0.10
0.18
0.21
0.17
0.13
0.19
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.24
0.27
0.16
0.24
0.05
0.05
0.20
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.20
0.24
0.08
0.19
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.05
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.26
0.29
0.31
0.49
0.19
0.11
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.27
0.19
0.00
0.23
0.14
0.18
0.00
0.74
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.07
0.16
0.36
0.77
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.26
0.64
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.11
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-10c. Average Per Capita Income in 2020, by Individual Characteristics and Income
Source
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Percent of
Total
Individuals Incomeb
Income
Social
From
Imputed
Security
SSI
DB
Financial
Rental
Benefits Benefits Pensions Assets Earnings Income
100%
1.31
0.26
0.00
0.10
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
12
0.40
0.17
0.01
0.04
High School Graduate
61
1.13
0.26
0.00
0.09
College Graduate
28
2.10
0.30
0.00
0.16
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
77
1.47
0.28
0.00
0.11
African-American
9
0.63
0.24
0.00
0.09
Hispanic
8
0.59
0.20
0.01
0.05
Other
6
1.21
0.17
0.02
0.05
By Gender
Female
57
1.26
0.27
0.00
0.10
Male
43
1.37
0.25
0.00
0.11
By Marital Status
Never Married
6
1.08
0.23
0.01
0.09
Married
61
1.35
0.25
0.00
0.10
Widowed
18
1.43
0.30
0.01
0.10
Divorced
16
1.10
0.29
0.00
0.10
By Age
62 to 64
20
1.40
0.18
0.00
0.08
65 to 69
28
1.28
0.28
0.00
0.10
70 to 74
22
1.06
0.30
0.00
0.11
75 to 79
14
1.12
0.28
0.00
0.11
80 to 84
9
1.10
0.27
0.00
0.12
85 to 89
6
2.75
0.26
0.01
0.14
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
84
1.35
0.30
0.00
0.11
DI Recipient
3
0.93
0.27
0.00
0.06
SSI Recipient
3
0.17
0.06
0.10
0.00
Not Receiving SS Benefits
10
1.39
0.03
0.00
0.05
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
20
0.22
0.15
0.02
0.01
Second quintile
20
0.47
0.26
0.00
0.05
Third quintile
20
0.72
0.29
0.00
0.09
Fourth quintile
20
1.12
0.30
0.00
0.14
Top quintile
20
4.01
0.32
0.00
0.22
a/ Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-57
0.68
0.21
0.06
0.08
0.55
1.21
0.08
0.18
0.34
0.02
0.05
0.09
0.80
0.11
0.16
0.72
0.22
0.17
0.14
0.21
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.67
0.69
0.17
0.26
0.06
0.06
0.51
0.69
0.87
0.45
0.20
0.25
0.08
0.21
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.06
0.57
0.65
0.48
0.57
0.60
2.25
0.52
0.20
0.12
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.74
0.36
0.00
0.45
0.15
0.18
0.00
0.81
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.05
0.02
0.07
0.16
0.36
2.77
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.26
0.58
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.12
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-12a. Average Family Total Income as a Percent of the Poverty Threshold
in 2020, by Age and Individual Characteristics
Age in 2020
62 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 ALL
9.41
8.53
6.87
6.93
6.84
15.31
8.36
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
3.27
2.53
2.45
2.52
2.96
3.01
2.74
High School Graduate
6.56
6.20
5.57
5.94
6.35
20.53
7.00
College Graduate
19.08
15.32
10.83
11.61
10.42
11.02
13.80
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
10.75
9.05
7.77
7.86
7.55
17.55
9.33
African-American
4.71
4.25
3.82
3.20
3.69
3.16
4.04
Hispanic
5.45
4.02
3.32
3.21
3.21
2.82
3.97
Other
7.77
15.29
4.40
3.59
5.34
4.11
8.50
By Gender
Female
8.78
8.07
6.06
5.66
6.47
15.27
7.74
Male
10.11
9.03
7.95
8.88
7.44
15.39
9.17
By Marital Status
Never Married
4.89
5.26
4.38
7.98
5.08
5.76
5.26
Married
11.13
10.32
8.27
8.34
9.19
15.16
9.89
Widowed
5.31
4.67
4.32
4.31
4.78
19.06
6.87
Divorced
5.98
5.32
4.92
6.13
4.13
3.59
5.29
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
9.36
8.77
7.20
7.34
7.27
16.28
8.59
DI Recipient
6.58
5.05
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.17
SSI Recipient
1.36
1.27
1.26
1.21
1.43
1.36
1.30
Not Receiving SS Benefits
10.91
9.82
1.73
1.72
2.46
4.79
9.37
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
1.81
1.71
1.64
1.57
1.47
1.59
1.66
Second quintile
3.40
3.23
2.93
2.63
2.74
2.56
3.03
Third quintile
5.32
4.77
4.29
4.03
4.17
3.64
4.54
Fourth quintile
8.43
7.32
6.53
6.55
6.08
5.73
7.05
Top quintile
26.84
26.42
18.95
20.03
19.59
64.37
25.56
N/A indicates not applicable. All DI beneficiaries convert to worker benefits at the normal retirement age.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-58
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-12b. Percent of Individuals in Poverty in 2020, by Age and Individual
Characteristics
62 to 64
4.2
65 to 69
4.9
70 to 74
5.4
Age in 2020
75 to 79 80 to 84
6.0
6.4
85 to 89
5.4
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
15.2
24.3
25.8
19.8
18.8
9.9
High School Graduate
3.3
3.3
4.0
4.3
5.0
5.0
College Graduate
2.0
1.2
1.1
2.8
2.3
2.2
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.4
3.8
African-American
9.5
9.2
9.2
14.0
13.8
15.8
Hispanic
5.7
11.0
11.3
9.8
10.7
6.1
Other
10.7
10.9
19.0
23.3
20.0
24.1
By Gender/Marital Status
4.7
5.7
7.0
7.8
7.7
6.1
All Females
Never Married Female
14.8
14.3
9.3
15.0
22.2
26.7
Married Female
2.7
3.1
4.3
4.1
5.5
2.3
Widowed Female
7.9
9.2
8.9
8.9
7.0
5.4
Divorced Female
5.7
7.5
10.7
13.2
11.1
8.8
3.7
4.0
3.3
3.2
4.2
3.9
All Males
Never Married Male
11.3
17.6
13.6
18.3
5.4
0.0
Married Male
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.3
3.5
2.7
Widowed Male
3.9
7.7
11.5
6.8
11.0
9.0
Divorced Male
5.1
5.0
4.6
2.7
0.0
3.6
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
DI Recipient
4.2
3.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
SSI Recipient
59.3
63.4
64.8
63.5
51.9
50.7
Not Receiving SS Benefits
6.7
20.2
44.4
50.7
53.2
34.3
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
N/A indicates not applicable. All DI beneficiaries convert to worker benefits at the normal retirement age.
VI-59
ALL
5.2
20.2
3.8
1.7
3.3
10.5
9.4
15.3
6.4
14.6
3.5
7.9
9.2
3.7
14.2
2.4
8.6
4.3
2.1
4.1
60.7
15.6
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-12c. Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Old Population, Average Family Income as a
Percent of Poverty and Percent of 62- to 89-Year-Olds Below Poverty in the Early 1990s and
2020, by Individual Characteristics
Percent of Retirees
Early
1990s
100%
Average Family
Income/Poverty Threshold
Census
UI
Measure
Measure
Early
Early
1990s
1990s
2020
3.33
3.47
8.36
Percent of Retirees Below
Poverty
Census
UI
Measure
Measure
Early
Early
1990s
1990s 2020
8.2%
7.8% 5.2%
2020
100.0%
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
39.8
12.6
2.30
2.42
2.74
14.9
14.4
20.2
High School Graduate
47.5
61.8
3.57
3.71
7.00
4.3
3.9
3.8
College Graduate
12.7
25.7
5.63
5.80
13.80
2.0
2.1
1.7
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
85.5
76.1
3.50
3.65
9.33
6.1
5.7
3.3
African-American
7.6
9.9
2.13
2.19
4.04
23.8
23.5
10.5
Hispanic
4.7
8.2
2.25
2.33
3.97
20.1
19.4
9.4
Other
2.2
5.8
3.18
3.30
8.50
10.4
11.9
15.3
By Gender
Female
57.5
56.8
3.05
3.16
7.74
10.8
10.3
6.4
Male
42.5
43.2
3.71
3.90
9.17
4.7
4.3
3.7
By Marital Status
Never Married
4.6
5.6
2.69
2.68
5.26
17.6
17.0
14.4
Married
59.2
60.3
3.88
4.07
9.89
2.6
2.5
2.9
Widowed
29.2
18.1
2.50
2.55
6.87
15.1
14.4
8.0
Divorced
7.0
15.9
2.53
2.61
5.29
20.8
20.2
7.5
By Age
62 to 64
16.1
20.0
4.17
4.29
9.41
6.1
6.1
4.2
65 to 69
27.9
28.1
3.55
3.65
8.53
6.4
6.1
4.9
70 to 74
22.9
22.4
3.19
3.30
6.87
7.8
7.5
5.4
75 to 79
16.6
14.1
3.01
3.15
6.93
9.5
9.0
6.0
80 to 84
12.1
9.3
2.67
2.84
6.84
12.8
12.4
6.4
85 to 89
4.3
6.1
2.62
2.83
15.31
11.8
10.7
5.4
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
76.6
84.0
3.29
3.42
8.59
5.6
5.2
2.1
DI Recipient
6.5
3.2
2.43
2.53
6.17
12.5
12.2
4.1
SSI Recipient
4.9
3.2
1.41
1.43
1.30
49.1
48.9
60.7
Not Receiving SS Benefits
12.0
9.5
4.83
5.06
9.37
5.7
5.6
15.6
Income from assets is based on reported income from assets in the Census measure and annuitized assets in the UI
measure.
All poverty rates use the 65 and older poverty thresholds.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX and the 1990 to 1993 SIPP.
VI-60
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-12d. Contribution of Individual Characteristics to Poverty Rates in Early
1990s and 2020 (UI Measures of Poverty Level Income)
Percent of Retirees
Early
1990s
100.0%
2020
100.0%
Percent of Retirees
Below Poverty
Early
1990s
7.8%
Early
1990s
7.8%
2020
5.2%
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
39.8
12.6
14.4
20.2
5.7
2.5
High School Graduate
47.5
61.8
3.9
3.8
1.9
2.3
College Graduate
12.7
25.7
2.1
1.7
0.3
0.4
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
85.5
76.1
5.7
3.3
4.9
2.5
African-American
7.6
9.9
23.5
10.5
1.8
1.0
Hispanic
4.7
8.2
19.4
9.4
0.9
0.8
Other
2.2
5.8
11.9
15.3
0.3
0.9
By Gender
Female
57.5
56.8
10.3
6.4
5.9
3.6
Male
42.5
43.2
4.3
3.7
1.8
1.6
By Marital Status
Never Married
4.6
5.6
17.0
14.4
0.8
0.8
Married
59.2
60.3
2.5
2.9
1.5
1.7
Widowed
29.2
18.1
14.4
8.0
4.2
1.5
Divorced
7.0
15.9
20.2
7.5
1.4
1.2
By Age
62 to 64
16.1
20.0
6.1
4.2
1.0
0.8
65 to 69
27.9
28.1
6.1
4.9
1.7
1.4
70 to 74
22.9
22.4
7.5
5.4
1.7
1.2
75 to 79
16.6
14.1
9.0
6.0
1.5
0.8
80 to 84
12.1
9.3
12.4
6.4
1.5
0.6
85 to 89
4.3
6.1
10.7
5.4
0.5
0.3
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
76.6
84.0
5.2
2.1
4.0
1.8
DI Recipient
6.5
3.2
12.2
4.1
0.8
0.1
SSI Recipient
4.9
3.2
48.9
60.7
2.4
1.9
Not Receiving SS Benefits
12.0
9.5
5.6
15.6
0.7
1.5
NOTE: Contribution to poverty of any group is equal to the product of its share in the population and its
own
poverty rate
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX and the 1990 to 1993 SIPP.
VI-61
2020
5.2%
Contribution to
Poverty
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-14a. Percent of Population Ages 62 to 89 in 2060, by Individual
Characteristics
62 to 64
65 to 69
Age in 2060
70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
10.7
9.9
9.7
9.4
High School Graduate
55.6
58.6
55.4
53.3
College Graduate
33.8
31.5
34.9
37.3
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
56.2
58.4
62.2
65.8
African-American
12.5
13.0
12.5
11.2
Hispanic
22.2
20.2
17.7
17.0
Other
9.2
8.4
7.5
5.9
By Gender
Female
51.1
51.2
53.7
57.5
Male
48.9
48.8
46.3
42.5
By Marital Status
Never Married
11.6
11.7
10.3
10.5
Married
68.9
64.7
59.9
53.2
Widowed
4.9
7.9
13.8
21.1
Divorced
14.6
15.7
15.9
15.2
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
54.0
87.4
98.7
98.6
DI Recipient
17.1
6.7
N/A
N/A
SSI Recipient
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
Not Receiving SS Benefits
28.6
5.6
0.9
0.9
Notes: DI beneficiaries convert to old age beneficiaries at the normal retirement age.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-62
85 to 89
ALL
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.7
57.4
33.9
7.8
55.1
37.1
9.5
56.1
34.4
65.3
11.0
17.3
6.5
65.5
10.6
15.5
8.4
61.7
12.0
18.6
7.7
62.2
37.8
70.7
29.3
56.2
43.8
9.4
45.7
30.6
14.3
10.7
32.1
41.4
15.8
10.8
56.6
17.3
15.3
99.0
N/A
0.5
0.6
96.9
N/A
0.9
2.1
89.1
4.2
0.4
6.3
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-14b. Average Per Capita Income in 2060, by Individual Characteristics and
Income Source
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Percent
of
Individu
als
Total
Incomeb
Social
Security
Benefits
SSI
Benefits
DB
Pensions
100
0.88
0.26
0.00
0.09
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
10.0
0.41
0.19
0.00
0.02
High School
Graduate
58.0
0.70
0.25
0.00
0.06
College Graduate
32.0
1.36
0.32
0.00
0.17
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
61.3
0.99
0.28
0.00
0.10
African-American
12.5
0.61
0.23
0.00
0.06
Hispanic
19.1
0.70
0.23
0.00
0.06
Other
7.2
0.89
0.26
0.00
0.08
By Gender
Female
57
0.87
0.27
0.00
0.10
Male
43
0.89
0.25
0.00
0.08
By Marital Status
Never Married
11
0.65
0.23
0.00
0.05
Married
56
0.92
0.25
0.00
0.10
Widowed
17
0.91
0.31
0.00
0.10
Divorced
15
0.85
0.28
0.00
0.06
By Age
62 to 64
15.0
1.06
0.18
0.00
0.07
65 to 69
24.1
0.83
0.26
0.00
0.08
70 to 74
20.4
0.88
0.29
0.00
0.11
75 to 79
17.2
0.86
0.29
0.00
0.10
80 to 84
13.2
0.85
0.29
0.00
0.10
85 to 89
10.1
0.79
0.27
0.00
0.06
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
89.1
0.86
0.28
0.00
0.09
DI Recipient
4.3
0.73
0.26
0.00
0.06
SSI Recipient
0.4
0.11
0.02
0.08
0.00
Not Receiving SS
Benefits
6.2
1.34
0.03
0.00
0.03
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
21.1
0.23
0.16
0.00
0.01
Second quintile
21.0
0.43
0.25
0.00
0.03
Third quintile
21.0
0.66
0.28
0.00
0.05
Fourth quintile
21.1
1.09
0.31
0.00
0.11
Top quintile
15.7
2.37
0.34
0.00
0.30
a/ Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors excluding top wealth holders.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-63
Income
From
Financial
Assets
Earnings
Imputed
Rental
Income
0.31
0.17
0.05
0.10
0.08
0.02
0.22
0.54
0.13
0.26
0.04
0.08
0.38
0.17
0.21
0.31
0.18
0.12
0.16
0.19
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.31
0.32
0.14
0.21
0.05
0.04
0.22
0.32
0.37
0.30
0.12
0.21
0.05
0.16
0.03
0.04
0.07
0.05
0.26
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.41
0.40
0.52
0.20
0.13
0.08
0.01
0.00
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.32
0.21
0.00
0.11
0.17
0.00
0.05
0.04
0.00
0.29
0.94
0.05
0.04
0.09
0.18
0.38
1.08
0.01
0.04
0.11
0.23
0.54
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.11
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-14c. Average Per Capita Income in 2060, by Individual Characteristics and
Income Source
(Income as a Percentage of the Economy-Wide Average Wage)a
Percent
of
Individu
als
Total
Incomeb
Social
Security
Benefits
SSI
Benefits
DB
Pensions
100
1.40
0.27
0.00
0.10
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
9.5
0.42
0.19
0.00
0.02
High School
Graduate
56.1
0.86
0.25
0.00
0.06
College Graduate
34.4
2.55
0.33
0.00
0.18
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
61.7
1.65
0.29
0.00
0.11
African-American
12.0
0.69
0.23
0.00
0.06
Hispanic
18.6
0.89
0.24
0.00
0.07
Other
7.7
1.72
0.27
0.00
0.08
By Gender
Female
56.2
1.42
0.28
0.00
0.10
Male
43.8
1.37
0.26
0.00
0.09
By Marital Status
Never Married
10.8
0.97
0.23
0.00
0.06
Married
56.6
1.40
0.26
0.00
0.10
Widowed
17.3
1.47
0.32
0.00
0.11
Divorced
15.3
1.62
0.29
0.00
0.07
By Age
62 to 64
15.0
1.59
0.18
0.00
0.07
65 to 69
24.1
1.33
0.26
0.00
0.09
70 to 74
20.4
1.35
0.30
0.00
0.12
75 to 79
17.1
1.33
0.30
0.00
0.10
80 to 84
13.2
1.44
0.29
0.00
0.11
85 to 89
10.1
1.46
0.28
0.00
0.07
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
89.2
1.39
0.29
0.00
0.10
DI Recipient
4.2
1.08
0.26
0.00
0.06
SSI Recipient
0.4
0.10
0.02
0.08
0.00
Not Receiving SS
Benefits
6.3
1.87
0.03
0.00
0.04
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
20.0
0.23
0.16
0.00
0.01
Second quintile
20.0
0.43
0.25
0.00
0.03
Third quintile
20.0
0.66
0.28
0.00
0.05
Fourth quintile
20.0
1.09
0.30
0.00
0.11
Top quintile
20.0
4.61
0.35
0.00
0.28
a/ Table includes all non-institutionalized survivors including top wealth holders.
b/ Total income does not include co-resident income.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-64
Income
From
Financial
Assets
Earnings
Imputed
Rental
Income
0.80
0.18
0.05
0.12
0.08
0.02
0.39
1.68
0.13
0.28
0.04
0.09
1.01
0.25
0.39
1.05
0.19
0.12
0.17
0.24
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.07
0.85
0.74
0.14
0.23
0.05
0.05
0.49
0.78
0.91
1.01
0.14
0.22
0.05
0.19
0.04
0.05
0.08
0.06
0.71
0.71
0.74
0.80
0.99
1.05
0.57
0.22
0.13
0.08
0.01
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.83
0.55
0.00
0.12
0.17
0.00
0.05
0.04
0.00
0.67
1.08
0.06
0.04
0.09
0.18
0.38
3.34
0.01
0.04
0.11
0.23
0.52
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.13
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-14d. Average Family Total Income as a Percent of the Poverty Threshold in 2060, by Age
and Individual Characteristics
62 to 64
15.8
65 to 69
13.1
Age in 2060
75 to 79 80 to 84
12.6
12.8
85 to 89
13.3
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
5.3
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.7
High School Graduate
10.4
8.3
7.8
7.2
9.0
7.8
College Graduate
27.9
24.7
24.5
22.4
21.6
23.4
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
18.8
16.1
15.8
14.3
13.8
15.6
African-American
8.1
6.8
6.4
6.6
6.9
5.3
Hispanic
10.6
8.6
8.4
8.7
9.7
8.1
Other
20.0
12.9
15.2
15.2
21.4
14.9
By Gender
Female
15.9
14.2
13.8
12.5
11.8
12.0
Male
15.6
12.0
12.7
12.7
14.6
16.4
By Marital Status
Never Married
8.4
6.8
6.8
7.5
6.1
9.7
Married
17.1
14.5
16.2
15.0
14.2
22.2
Widowed
16.8
10.0
9.1
10.4
13.2
8.5
Divorced
14.7
13.4
9.9
10.4
12.0
10.2
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
14.2
13.3
13.4
12.7
13.0
13.6
DI Recipient
12.4
7.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
SSI Recipient
1.3
2.1
1.8
1.0
1.9
2.0
Not Receiving SS Benefits
20.8
17.4
5.1
3.7
1.8
6.4
By Per-Capita Income Quintile
Bottom quintile
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.5
Second quintile
5.1
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.8
Third quintile
7.8
6.8
6.6
5.9
5.9
5.4
Fourth quintile
12.7
10.5
10.6
9.6
9.2
7.8
Top quintile
47.7
42.9
42.1
40.9
43.1
47.7
N/A indicates not applicable. All DI beneficiaries convert to worker benefits at the normal retirement age.
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
VI-65
70 to 74
13.3
ALL
13.4
4.3
8.4
24.2
15.7
6.8
9.0
16.1
13.4
13.4
7.4
15.9
10.6
11.8
13.3
10.5
1.7
18.5
2.5
4.3
6.5
10.3
43.7
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
Table A6-14e. Percent of Individuals in Poverty in 2060, by Age and Individual
Characteristics
62 to 64
2.2%
65 to 69
1.4%
70 to 74
1.7%
Age in 2060
75 to 79 80 to 84
1.7%
1.0%
85 to 89
2.1%
ALL
1.6%
ALL
By Educational Attainment
High School Dropout
9.7
6.0
5.6
5.7
3.5
5.5
6.1
High School Graduate
1.8
1.3
2.1
2.2
1.2
2.8
1.8
College Graduate
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
By Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic
1.9
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.4
1.4
1.1
African-American
2.9
2.1
4.3
4.6
3.3
5.0
3.5
Hispanic
2.3
0.9
2.5
2.2
1.8
3.5
2.0
Other
2.7
2.2
2.7
1.3
1.7
1.5
2.1
By Gender/Marital Status
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.2
2.4
1.6
All Females
Never Married Female
3.6
4.5
4.6
5.5
5.0
5.9
4.8%
Married Female
0.5
0.3
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.6%
Widowed Female
0.0
1.3
1.5
0.8
0.4
2.4
1.3%
Divorced Female
7.9
3.2
2.3
2.2
1.7
2.4
3.1%
2.5
1.4
1.9
1.8
0.8
1.5
1.7
All Males
Never Married Male
10.3
7.0
16.4
14.0
6.4
8.1
10.5%
Married Male
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5%
Widowed Male
2.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
0.7%
Divorced Male
3.2
1.9
1.9
1.7
0.5
0.0
1.8%
By SS Benefit Status
OASI Recipient
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.9
DI Recipient
0.8
1.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.2
SSI Recipient
57.2
14.3
49.5
78.4
37.1
59.0
49.7
Not Receiving SS Benefit
4.9
10.5
47.0
56.0
39.3
32.1
10.0
Source: The Urban Institute tabulations of MINT4EX.
N/A indicates not applicable. All DI beneficiaries convert to worker benefits at the normal retirement age.
VI-66
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF MINT4EX RESULTS
APRIL 2005
REFERENCES
Dalaker, Joseph, 2001. “Poverty in the United States: 2000”, U. S. Census Bureau,
Current Population Reports, Series P60-214. U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, DC, 2001.
Panis, Constantijn, and Lee Lillard. 1999. “Near Term Model Development”. Final
Report, SSA Contract No: 600-96-27335. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
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